Here we go again: Vols ranked 25th in the AP Poll

Historical poll data will become meaningless in week two, with no Big Ten and Pac-12 teams around to fill out the nation’s best 25 teams in a given week. Take them out of the preseason AP poll today, and the Vols would be 16th. But whatever perception is worth, we get one look at Tennessee compared to the rest of the nation, and the Vols grabbed the last spot in this year’s initial AP poll at #25.

This is year three for Jeremy Pruitt. In the preseason poll before Derek Dooley’s third year, the Vols were also receiving votes at 33rd. Tennessee moved into the poll at #23 after a 2-0 start, then lost to Florida. It was the only appearance in three years for Dooley’s Vols. (Poll data from College Poll Archive)

In the preseason poll before Butch Jones’ third year, the Vols were, you guessed it, 25th. They moved up to #23 with the win over Bowling Green, fell out after losing to Oklahoma, and only reappeared in the season finale, finishing #22 after throttling Northwestern in the Outback Bowl.

For Tennessee’s last three coaching staffs, the outset of year three is when the college football world gives you just enough benefit of the doubt to slide in the poll, then asks you to prove it. Dooley, Butch, and Pruitt never flirted with the Top 25 in years one or two; the Vols finished 34th in votes received after beating Indiana in the Gator Bowl last year. Dooley’s Vols were 34th after beating Jones and Cincinnati in week two of the 2011 season, but lost to Florida and never got close again that year due to injury. So each of Tennessee’s last three coaches has come to this moment in more or less the same spot: we think you might have it in you, but now you have to prove it.

When it was clear Butch Jones was on his way out, we talked about how we might measure progress between rebuilding and championships the next time around. One good metric: longevity in the polls, which is probably worth more than where you finish the season when it comes to relevance. That was the case in 2015, when the Vols were clearly competitive with championship-caliber teams, but because they lost those games by the thinnest of margins, never got back into the Top 25 until the very end.

There’s plenty of good historical context in the post linked above from 2017, but in short:

From Tennessee’s return to the Top 25 in September 1989 through the end of the Fulmer Era in 2008, it’s easier for me to tell you when Tennessee wasn’t ranked:

  • October-November in 1994, playing freshman Peyton Manning at quarterback. The Vols finished #24 in the final poll after beating Virginia Tech in the Gator Bowl.
  • Mid-October through early November in 2000 after a 2-3 start in a rebuilding year. The loss to Kansas State in the Cotton Bowl bounced the Vols from the final poll.
  • November of 2002 through the final poll
  • Late October of 2005 through the final poll
  • The week after losing to Alabama in 2007

From 1989-2007, that’s it.

From 2008-2019, it’s easier for me to tell you when Tennessee was ranked:

  • 2008 preseason poll
  • The week of the Florida game in 2012
  • The first two weeks and the final poll in 2015
  • The first nine weeks of 2016, plus the week of the Vanderbilt game and the final poll after beating Nebraska in the Music City Bowl
  • The first three weeks in 2017

So now, we’re back in the poll for the first time since September 10, 2017. The point about staying ranked will be less potent if the Vols jump 10+ spots by beating South Carolina and nine other teams being removed from the poll because they’re not playing. But the point about staying relevant very much remains. These year three Vols, similar to their Butch Jones predecessors, got here by a strong finish in year two without beating any ranked teams along the way. They’re good enough to be dangerous, and in no way good enough to avoid danger themselves. Staying relevant this year will look like staying alive in the SEC East race; a 6-4 finish with a loss to Florida in December will feel different than, say, a 6-4 finish that started 2-3.

We’ve been here before, more than once. The way forward looks much different in a pandemic. But it’s up to the 2020 Vols to see that being ranked in the preseason poll is more than just a brief historical footnote this time around.

Read: Vols practice news

If you read only one thing about the Vols today . . .

. . . make it this, from 247Sports:

Other Vols stuff worth reading today

  1. Kennedy praises Tennessee staff for COVID-19 quarantine help, via 247Sports
  2. Vols Turn Up Intensity In Third Practice of Preseason – University of Tennessee Athletics, via UTSports

Behind the paywalls

  • Tennessee camp takeaways: Harrison Bailey’s quarantine and the Cade Mays saga, via The Athletic
  • What We Learned: Takeaways from Tennessee’s first four practices, via 247Sports

Finding the Rhythm in Tennessee’s New Schedule

We fired up our Expected Win Total Machine this week as soon as the SEC released the new 2020 schedule. If you haven’t already, you can go there and put in your win probabilities for every game on Tennessee’s new schedule, and the machine will give you how many games you think the Vols will win this season. It’s one thing to say you think the Vols will go 6-4 with wins over abc and losses to xyz. But we find it to be a better, healthier exercise to assign win probabilities for each game to get a record projection.

What does a successful season look like now? Our community projects the Vols to win 5.82 games against this schedule. If you round up to a 6-4 finish, that would guarantee Tennessee beat at least one of its five preseason Top 15 opponents. Pre-pandemic, an 8-4 finish against the original schedule felt like the head-nod verdict: yep, okay, that’s probably what we should expect, moving on. But whereas an 8-4 finish against the original schedule didn’t guarantee you a marquee win, a 6-4 finish against a 10-game SEC slate should include at least one signature win.

As we know, not all 8-4’s are created equal, and neither will all 6-4’s this year. But some of the things we use to measure success – like a traditional January 1 bowl – may not be available this season. Signature wins will be more important than ever, but so too will overall progress in metrics like SP+. It still holds that one of the best ways to measure progress for the 2020 Vols is the, “We have a chance to win this game,” test. After 2001, the only Tennessee team not to lose at least one three-possession game is 2015. That would be a good list for the 2020 Vols to be on.

Everything is about the SEC East race. That should really always be the case. The original move of the Georgia game to November would’ve kept the Vols in the SEC East chase much longer than usual, just for the hope of knocking off the Dawgs in Athens towards the end of the season. Now Georgia is in week three, but I think Tennessee actually benefits from that trade: Florida is the season finale instead of a mid-November date, and the Gators’ schedule offers them a better chance to be the team to beat. Lose in week three to Georgia and you’re behind, but the Dawgs are in Tuscaloosa the very next week, where Tennessee could instantly get a game back. Simply by playing Alabama, Georgia is the easier team to catch in the standings if you don’t beat them head-to-head. And even if the Gators do find success against their lighter load, Tennessee can still knock them off in Knoxville in December. The Vols should stay in the race for a long time this season, and that in and of itself will feel very much like progress.

Trap opponents out of trap weeks. If we assume Vanderbilt and Arkansas don’t qualify as trap games because the Vols should be able to overwhelm them with talent, the remaining candidates are South Carolina, Missouri, and Kentucky…and the Cats only qualify because they haven’t won in Knoxville since 1984. But now, Tennessee gets trap opponents in weeks one and two. If we learned anything at all from Georgia State, the Vols shouldn’t be caught off guard out the gate. So while we didn’t want to play two non-Top 15 opponents back-to-back to help with the schedule’s overall rhythm, it’s a really good setup on the front end.

Here’s how our community rates Tennessee’s chances in each game:

  • at South Carolina: 67.1%
  • Missouri: 76.1%
  • at Georgia: 30.0%
  • Kentucky: 68.0%
  • Alabama: 23.6%
  • at Arkansas: 85.3%
  • Texas A&M: 50.4%
  • at Auburn: 46.9%
  • at Vanderbilt: 88.6%
  • Florida: 46.1%

Read: Empathy for Big 10, Pac-12 players

If you read only one thing about the Vols today . . .

. . . make it this, from ESPN:

Other Vols stuff worth reading today

  1. 20 compelling storylines that will lead us through the 2020 college football season – CBSSports.com, via CBS Sports
  2. Tennessee athletic director Phillip Fulmer requests pay cut, via KnoxNews
  3. College football rankings: Clemson solidly No. 1 over Alabama in 2020 Preseason CBS Sports 76 – CBSSports.com, via CBS Sports
  4. Punter returns to Vols having previously entered transfer portal, via 247Sports
  5. 2020 Football Roster – University of Tennessee Athletics, via UTSports

Behind the paywalls

  • Q&A: Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee on the SEC moving forward with college football – The Athletic, via The Athletic

Watch: Football news and hype

https://twitter.com/Vol_Football/status/1295736796005859328
https://twitter.com/SECNetwork/status/1295854422518640645

Read: #FreeCadeMays and other football news

If you read only one thing about the Vols today . . .

. . . make it this, from 247Sports:

Other Vols stuff worth reading today

  1. Wiedmer: #FreeCadeMays should unite all SEC fan bases, even UGA’s | Chattanooga Times Free Press, via the Times Free Press
  2. Lawyer: Cade Mays transfer appeal centers on ‘toxic environment’, via 247Sports
  3. Eric Gray weighs in on Day 1 of fall camp, new face shields, via 247Sports
  4. Pruitt explains how Jeremy Banks got second chance with Vols, via 247Sports
  5. SEC announces fan health and safety guidelines, via SEC Sports

Read: The Expected Win Total Machine

Oh, look! It’s actual news about actual football! Reunited, and it feels so good.

If you do only one thing regarding the Vols today . . .

. . . use our Expected Win Total Machine to set a benchmark for the season:

Other Vols stuff worth reading today

  1. Odds released for every Week 1 SEC football game, via 247Sports
  2. Vols file appeal after Cade Mays has NCAA transfer waiver denied, via 247Sports
  3. Trey Smith starts #FreeCadeMays movement, via 247Sports
  4. Jay Bilas slams NCAA over Vols OL Cade Mays’ denied waiver, via 247Sports
  5. Pruitt details Tennessee’s latest COVID-19 test numbers, via 247Sports
  6. Jeremy Banks reinstated to Tennessee football program, via 247Sports
  7. Veteran Vols DB ruled out for 2020 season, via 247Sports

Behind the paywalls

  • Staples: The SEC just showed us what we’ve been missing, and it’s tantalizing – The Athletic, via The Athletic

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine: 2020 Preseason

The SEC finally (re-)released the 2020 SEC football schedule yesterday, so we now have something to talk about other than just whether we’re actually going to make it to the starting line. That means it’s time to fire up the Gameday on Rocky Top Expected Win Total Machine.

The 2020 Expected Win Total Machine


My assessment

My expected win total is 5.4.

If I was just assigning wins and losses, I’d be at 5-5.

Details

at South Carolina: 70%

Missouri: 70%

at Georgia: 35%

Kentucky: 60%

Alabama: 25%

at Arkansas: 90%

Texas A&M: 35%

at Auburn: 35%

at Vanderbilt: 90%

Florida: 30%

And here’s how it looks with its church clothes on: