In the last 30 years, 13 Vol quarterbacks have attempted at least 250 passes as a multi-game starter. Right in the middle of that list is Jarrett Guarantano, who has now thrown 753 passes in a Tennessee uniform. The six quarterbacks in front of him are record-setters and/or champions of one kind or another: Manning, Clausen, Ainge, Dobbs, Bray, Kelly. Not far behind him are Tee Martin and Heath Shuler, who started for only two years. And the rest of the list is filled with guys who won, lost, and in some cases re-won the starting job: Matt Simms, Rick Clausen, Justin Worley, and Jonathan Crompton.

It’s Crompton who feels like the closest comparison to Guarantano a lot of times. Where Guarantano has mixed and matched good and bad in his career, Crompton felt like all of the latter before a stunning transformation to the former. He was at the helm of the Clawfense, which guaranteed his numbers would suffer in comparison. And before that Georgia game, now 11 years old, Crompton’s bad in that offense felt worse than anything I’d seen before.

So there’s a temptation, after losing 34-7 to Kentucky in Knoxville, to throw that “accolade” on Guarantano, especially when it follows the second half at Georgia, and Georgia followed up by surrendering 41 points to Alabama. At 753 pass attempts, we have plenty of data on JG. And it can feel like we keep banging our heads against the same wall.

But over the full course of those 753 pass attempts, Guarantano isn’t the worst we’ve ever seen. In fact, he’s among the top five of those thirteen quarterbacks in the stats that cause the most frustration (data via SportSource Analytics and Sports Reference).

In touchdown-to-interception ratio, Guarantano is fifth among those thirteen QBs, behind Shuler, Manning, Bray, and Casey Clausen. Guarantano has 36 touchdown passes to 16 interceptions, adding three to his total in the last six quarters. “He’s just not accurate,” is a common complaint, especially after struggling so mightily on third down early this season. But in completion percentage, Guarantano (61.2%) is fourth on that list behind Manning, Shuler, and Dobbs.

In yards per attempt, a holier grail than many quarterback statistics, Guarantano is fifth behind Manning, Bray, Shuler, and Martin.

And in interceptions per attempt…Guarantano is first. Not as in worst. As in best: Guarantano has thrown 16 interceptions in 753 attempts, firing one on 2.12% of his passes. Heath Shuler threw 12 in 513 attempts, 2.34%. Peyton Manning threw 33 in 1,381 attempts, 2.39%.

Take his entire career or even his entire season this year, and Guarantano’s numbers are solid. So why do we feel like things are so bad?

I think Guarantano’s problems remind me most of the Arian Foster conversation: “He fumbles all the time!” Which wasn’t true. But his fumbles often came at the worst possible times in critical moments: at the goal line against South Carolina in 2005, a scoop and score in the Outback Bowl against Penn State, another against Florida in a one possession game in 2007, inside the five at UCLA in 2008, one more scoop and score at Auburn a few weeks later. That’s five fumbles in four years, but it was enough to plant the idea in the minds of many.

Guarantano doesn’t turn it over all the time; as interceptions go, he turns it over less than any long-term Tennessee starter in at least the last 30 years.

But when he does turn it over, he has a habit of doing it in bunches and bad moments.

I looked up each of his 16 interceptions. I added the first two from his freshman year for completion’s sake, but I wouldn’t judge him too harshly by what he did in 2017. But starting with the Florida game in 2018 – in something that just felt like unique bad luck at the time – you’ll notice a pattern:

Jarrett Guarantano’s Career Interceptions

1. 2017 Alabama: Intercepted in the end zone (Vols down 38-7)

2. 2017 Vanderbilt: First play of the drive (Vols down 35-17)

3-4. 2018 Florida: Strip sack on the opening drive, intercepted at the Tennessee 12 yard line on the next drive to help Florida take a 14-0 lead. Intercepted on the first play of the drive in the third quarter (Vols down 33-6).

5. 2018 Vanderbilt: Last drive of the first half (Vols down 17-0)

6. 2019 Georgia State: Fumble on pass in the flat on the second play of the game (not his fault?), strip sack at midfield on the drive following Georgia State taking a 28-23 lead, sack and interception on the first two plays of the drive when Georgia State led 35-23.

7. 2019 BYU: Third play of the third quarter at the UT 31 yard line

8-9. 2019 Florida: Intercepted in the end zone (Jennings bobbled), then intercepted at midfield, both with Florida leading only 7-0

10. 2019 UAB: Intercepted in the end zone (Vols led 23-0)

11. 2019 Vanderbilt: Intercepted on the opening drive

12-13. 2019 Indiana: Intercepted on the last drive of the first half, then pick-sixed on UT’s second play of the third quarter

14. 2020 Georgia: Strip sack to open the third quarter, interception at the UT 32 three plays later, scoop and score in the fourth quarter

15-16. 2020 Kentucky: Fumble at the Kentucky 26, pick six on the next drive, pick six on the following drive.

Throw in the goal line scoop and score at Alabama last year, and you’ve got a mess here.

Of Guarantano’s 16 interceptions:

• Three in the end zone
• Seven within the first three plays of the drive, which usually means bad field position
• Three pick sixes, all in the last five games

Six different times, Guarantano has been involved with turnovers on consecutive drives: 2018 Florida, 2019 Georgia State, 2019 Florida, 2019 Indiana, 2020 Georgia, and 2020 Kentucky. When it rains, we drown (or become the only team to come back from down 13 with less than five minutes to play all year).

The stakes were higher for Arian Foster, who was surrounded by more talent. You can chicken/egg that sentence. These turnovers don’t all fall at the feet of Jarrett Guarantano, who has taken a ton of punishment over his career and is still seeing his guys struggle with pass protection in front of him.

Guarantano doesn’t throw a lot of interceptions. But he doesn’t throw a lot of harmless ones either. And that has repeatedly put the Vols in bad positions they’re usually not capable of overcoming.

I don’t know that any version of this Tennessee team is capable of overcoming Alabama, though I like their odds better a week before kickoff than I did last year, and they certainly had their chances then. I don’t know for sure what you do after that, or how you feel about Harrison Bailey with no spring practice and little fall camp. At this point in his career, I think it’s best to accept Guarantano for who he is, and what he can and can’t do. He’s actually statistically better at not throwing interceptions than any Tennessee starter of my generation. But when it gets away from him, it really gets away. What does Jeremy Pruitt do at quarterback to keep things from getting away from the Vols this year? We’ll find out more on Saturday.

Here’s our weekly color-coded look at how the Vols’ national rankings are trending in each of the official NCAA stat categories.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: 4th down conversion percentage, tackles for loss allowed

Took a hit this week: Passes had intercepted fell from No. 5 to No. 45, Red zone offense went from No. 25 to No. 44, and completion percentage fell from No. 27 to No. 36

Currently needs improvement: Deep breath . . . First downs offense, sacks allowed, team passing efficiency, passing offense, rushing offense, passing yards per completion, scoring offense, total offense, 3rd down conversion percentage

Improved this week: Rushing offense went from No. 66 to No. 57

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Defensive TDs, 4th down conversion percentage defense, total defense

Took a hit this week: Nothing major here, except that first downs defense went from No. 26 to No. 33, red zone defense went from No. 33 to No. 48, and 3rd down conversion percentage defense went from No. 46 to No. 54

Improved this week: Total defense went from No. 31 to No. 24, passing yards allowed went from No. 42 to No. 28

Currently needs improvement: 3rd down conversion percentage defense

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Punt returns, punt return defense, net punting, kickoff returns

Took a hit this week: Net punting went from No. 13 to No. 24

Improved this week: Nothing

Currently needs improvement: Kickoff return defense

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Fumbles recovered

Took a hit this week: Turnovers lost (No. 13 to No. 51), turnover margin (No. 24 to No. 50), fumbles lost (No. 28 to No. 38), fewest penalties (No. 29 to No. 38), fewest penalty yards (No. 30 to No. 40)

Improved this week: Nothing, unless you want to count fumbles recovered going from No. 14 to No. 9

Appears to need improvement: Turnovers are not yet in the bottom third, but they are trending HARD in that direction.

Turnovers. Anathema to college football. A temporary indiscretion that holds the power to undo untold amounts of hard work. In an instant, they can ruin your play, your day, or even your season.

Tennessee had four of them yesterday against the Kentucky Wildcats, and they all came in such rapid succession that it sucked the wind out of the sails for the rest of the game.

The Vols’ offense punted on its first series after a 32-yard drive and then recovered a Kentucky fumble at the Wildcats’ 45-yard line. Tennessee then drove to the 26, but fumbled when the running back bumped into quarterback Jarrett Guarantano’s arm as he was beginning his throwing motion. Kentucky recovered.

No harm done. Yet. The defense forced a punt after Kentucky went only 9 yards, and although the punt flipped the field, the Vols got the ball back.

And then came the harm. With fury and malice.

Guarantano threw a deep out route to the opposite side of the field, and defensive back Kelvin Joseph jumped the route, intercepted the ball, and ran it back 41 yards for a touchdown.

On the Vols’ next series, Guarantano led the team from its own 25-yard line to the Kentucky 28, but then threw another interception, this one to Jamin Davis, who ran it back 85 yards for another touchdown.

Jeremy Pruitt sat Guarantano and gave the reins to J.T. Shrout for the next series. The offense ran one play for 3 yards, had a personal foul penalty on the next, and then Shrout threw an interception. Seven plays later, Kentucky converted that gift into a field goal.

At that point, Kentucky had only 56 total yards, but led 17-0. The drive chart looked like this:

That’s not how drive charts are supposed to look.

Going back to the second half against Georgia last week, Tennessee has had two fumbles, two interceptions, a fumble recovered for a touchdown, two interceptions returned for touchdowns, and 21 instant points given up by the offense in only four quarters of football.

Whatever superlative you want to use to describe that, it fits. You just can’t win that way. It’s how an otherwise evenly-matched game becomes a blowout in the wrong direction.

Tennessee and Kentucky were within seven total yards of each other yesterday. They were within five passing yards and 12 rushing yards of each other. They had an equal number of first downs. And Kentucky won 34-7 because Tennessee had four turnovers.

Just how bad does it hurt?

The Vols didn’t just go on a turnover binge, they took out a credit line and went to 5th Avenue. Football Study Hall estimates that each turnover is generally worth about 5 points on the scoreboard. Sometimes they are worth less, sometimes more, as the continuum runs from a mere lost opportunity all the way to a lost opportunity plus 7 points for the other team on the same play. Interceptions and fumbles recovered and ran back for touchdowns are the most outlandish purchases, and the Vols’ have been going deep into debt the last four quarters.

What in the world has happened?

That, of course, is the Big Question. Countless fingers are currently aimed directly at Guarantano, and he’s certainly a person of interest in the lineup. Many are also pointing at that nearly-perfect-from-a-recruiting-stars-standpoint offensive line.

We should also give proper credit to the opposing defenses. Georgia’s defense is one that could be historically elite by the end of the season.

But what about Kentucky’s? If you’re like me, you probably attributed the Wildcats’ six interceptions against Mississippi State last week to some combination of luck and a sputtering Mike Leach Air Raid. However, Kentucky is currently second in the nation in passes intercepted and tied for first in interceptions returned for touchdowns.

It’s possible that that result has more to do with Kentucky’s opponents than it does with Kentucky — Arkansas is first in interceptions and tied with Kentucky for first in interceptions returned for touchdowns, and both Arkansas and Kentucky have played Mississippi State — but then again, maybe the Wildcats are just ballhawks.

Whatever the case, giving the ball to the other team has to stop. Right now.

Shockingly, we didn’t win the gold

Oddly enough, it wasn’t just Tennessee that had problems with turnovers or pick sixes yesterday. At one point during the day, I heard an SEC announcer say that there had been six pick sixes on the day. Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral threw six interceptions against Arkansas, including two pick sixes. (Also odd: He was never replaced despite Ole Miss having a capable second-stringer.)

I don’t know whether there ended up being more than six pick sixes yesterday, but even six is a lot. And Tennessee had two of them. On back-to-back possessions. Sandwiched by a fumble and another interception. On the heels of a flurry of turnovers in the prior game that also included a fumble returned for a touchdown.

Turnovers may be epidemic, but the Vols are sicker than most with the possible exception of Ole Miss.

There were other problems as well

Turnovers played the lead in yesterday’s tragedy, but there were several other villains at work in supporting roles as well. While Kentucky had only one ten-yard penalty, the Vols had six for 63 yards.

Field position was also a problem. Here are the starting positions for Tennessee:

• TN 31
• KY 45
• TN 19
• TN 25
• TN 25
• TN 23
• TN 21
• TN 16
• TN 25
• TN 28

Meanwhile, here are the starting positions for Kentucky:

• KY 25
• KY 20
• KY 27 (after fumble)
• (Pick six)
• (Pick six)
• TN 37 (after interception)
• KY 25
• KY 36
• KY 24
• TN 40
• KY 46
• KY 10

Tennessee’s best starting field position was barely over midfield, and it happened only once. Everything else was basically 75 yards from the end zone.

On the other side, Kentucky had two possessions with a starting field position of zero (because its defense scored), two more on Tennesee’s side of the field, and another almost to midfield. Much of that advantage was a direct result of the turnovers, of course, but the Wildcats also had a significant advantage in the punting game, as Max Duffy had a solid average of 46.7 yards per punt while Paxton Brooks averaged only 37.8 on five punts. That’s basically another 40-50 yard advantage in the punting game.

Progress is not a straight line

If there is a silver lining to yesterday and the second half of the Georgia game, it’s this: As Will reminded us after the Georgia game, progress is not a straight line. I don’t know about you, but I fell prey to believing otherwise. I let myself think that because the Vols took care of business against the second tier of the SEC East last year, we were past that nonsense. I focused only on the next step, which was to start knocking off Georgia, Florida, and Alabama every once in a while.

But we can’t just pass a milestone and cross it off the list. This is a ongoing race, not a checklist, and you can’t just chase after your target without also watching your back.

The upside of progress not being a straight line is that sometimes surprising jumps in progress can follow directly on the heels of regression. We saw that play out in 2019. Let’s see what happens in the remainder of 2020.

The thing I keep coming back to most often – “Georgia’s defense is the best in the country” – is, of course, the most hopeful scenario. So maybe don’t trust it yet; trust it a lot if it shows up well against Alabama, which has the best offense in the country. Stay tuned next week when we get to try to solve that problem.

But by the end of the year, that’s the hope: Georgia’s defense is, in fact, not just the best in the nation, but the best we’ve seen in a while.

The last time we saw anything better, via SP+, was 2017 Alabama. (Mis)matched against the anemic Vol offense in Butch Jones’ final season, Tennessee went for 108 total yards at 2.35 yards per play, and zero offensive points. Before then, the last time Tennessee saw a defense who ended up in that neighborhood was 2012 Florida, Will Muschamp’s eventual Sugar Bowl team. The high-powered Vol offense scored 20 points, but had just 4.72 yards per play, their lowest total of the year before imploding at Vanderbilt.

The 2012 Gators ended the year at 6.6 (points allowed vs the average offense) in defensive SP+. 2017 Alabama finished at 5.6. Georgia was at 6.2 before playing the Vols, actually coming down a bit to 7.1.

The Vols gained 214 yards on Georgia last week at 3.40 yards per play. That’s clearly not going to get it done against an elite team, and is just as indicative of the outcome as turning the ball over three times in the second half.

As a result, Tennessee’s defense faced 77 plays, its second-highest total in the last two years. The Vols allowed 44 points (37 for Georgia’s offense), got hurt over the middle, and don’t come out of Athens carrying a world of confidence.

But when you put all the numbers on the table this season, and consider what’s happening around the rest of the league? Pick whichever one makes you feel best, because they both might still be true after the Georgia game:

• Tennessee might have the second best defense in the SEC
• Tennessee might have its best defense in 10+ years

In SP+, both are true right now. Georgia’s otherworldly defense leads the nation at 7.1 in SP+; Ohio State is number two at 14.1, a full seven points behind. The field gets more crowded from there, but among SEC defenses after three weeks and plenty of points:

Team	SP+ Defense	National Rank
Georgia	7.1	1
Tennessee	17.3	13
Auburn	18	18
Florida	19.4	20
Alabama	19.8	22
South Carolina	19.9	23
Missouri	20.5	27
Kentucky	21.2	28
Texas A&M	21.6	29
LSU	22.5	37
Arkansas	26.3	58
Ole Miss	27.7	65
Vanderbilt	27.8	66
Mississippi St	27.9	67

Tennessee’s defensive rating of 17.3 is a hair ahead of last season’s 17.4, spurred on by a fantastic defensive effort in the six-game winning streak to close 2019. That rating was Tennessee’s best of the decade, which isn’t overly shocking; the 2015 Vol defense came closest at 17.8. What is more shocking is the size of the gap between where the Vols are now and where we’ve been in the last few years:

Season	SP+ Defense
2009	15.5
2020	17.3
2019	17.4
2015	17.8
2011	18.8
2014	19.9
2010	23.6
2016	25.2
2017	25.7
2013	26.1
2012	28.3
2018	28.9

In the post-Fulmer era, only Monte Kiffin’s 2009 unit faired better than last year, and this year’s potential. And, in the spirit of having a chance to win every week, that’s a group – 2015, 2019, 2009 – you want to be in. Much better than the company Tennessee’s defense kept in 2016-18.

So maybe we’re not ready to think of the 2020 Vol defense as elite, or even “very good”. But if the numbers hold weight, they’ll play their way into at least that second category.

Which brings us to Kentucky.

Fresh off gaining 157 total yards at 2.96 yards per play against Mississippi State – six interceptions, 24 points – the Cats head to Knoxville. Last year Kentucky scored 13 points against us, seven the year before that. In winning four straight after losing to us in 2019, Kentucky scored 38, 50, 45, and 37 points. In winning three straight after losing to us in 2018, Kentucky scored 34, 56, and 27. Jeremy Pruitt’s defense has done some of its very best work against Kentucky.

Tennessee’s offense has its own demons to exorcise, and I’m not sure how much of that will take place the next two weeks. But if Tennessee’s defense is simply as good as statistically and historically advertised? They can carry the day against a team like Kentucky. And along the way, might start getting a little more credit and higher expectations.

Tennessee opened as a 6.5-point favorite over Kentucky this week, and the line has since moved to Tennessee -6. Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks about that.

From the perspective of Tennessee

Each team has played three games in 2020, so the machine will only look at current year data.

• Tennessee’s Scoring Offense: 29
• Kentucky’s Scoring Offense: 26
• Tennessee’s Scoring Defense: 27.7
• Kentucky’s Scoring Defense: 24.3

Tennessee’s offense against Kentucky’s defense

Kentucky’s scoring defense of 24.3 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• South Carolina 25.3
• Georgia 12.3

In case you’re wondering like I was, Missouri’s an even worse comp than Georgia, as the Tigers’ scoring defense is currently 38.

Tennessee scored 21 points against Georgia and 31 points against South Carolina. Combined, that’s 138% of what those teams usually give up, so the estimated points for Tennessee against Kentucky is 33.6.

Kentucky’s offense against Tennessee’s defense

Kentucky’s scoring offense of 26 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Missouri 25.3
• South Carolina 30.7

Tennessee allowed Missouri 12 points South Carolina 27 points, which combined is 70% of what those teams usually score. So the estimated points for Kentucky against Tennessee is 18.2.

Estimated score: Tennessee 33.6, Kentucky 18.2

From the perspective of Kentucky

Kentucky’s offense against Tennessee’s defense

Tennessee’s scoring defense of 27.7 is most similar to the following prior Kentucky opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Mississippi State 26.3
• Auburn 22.7

Kentucky scored 13 points against Auburn and 24 points against Mississippi State. Combined, that is 76% of what those teams usually give up. Estimated points for Kentucky against Tennessee: 21.

Tennessee’s offense against Kentucky’s defense

Tennessee’s scoring offense of 29 is most similar to the following prior Kentucky opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Auburn 21.7
• Mississippi State 20

Kentucky allowed 29 points to Auburn and 2 points to Mississippi State [FLAG!]. That’s 74% of what those teams usually score, which makes the estimated points for Tennessee against Kentucky: 21.5.

Estimated score: Kentucky 21, Tennessee 21.5

SPM Final Estimates

Combining the results from both perspectives, here’s what we get:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 27.5, Kentucky 19.6

SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee -7.9

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 1.4

That makes this yet another Category 1 game for the Statsy Preview Machine, meaning it’s not overly confident about its conclusion that Tennessee will cover because it is not far off from the Vegas spread.

Eyeball adjustments

The only thing that really jumps out at me from the above concerns Mississippi State’s offense as a comp for judging Kentucky’s defense. Leach’s Air Raid exploded onto the scene with 44 points against LSU. It was then immediately grounded with 14 points against Arkansas and 2 points against Kentucky. Also, LSU’s defense appears to be suspect, as it allowed 45 points to Missouri, a team that scored only 12 points against the Vols. Also also, Auburn scored more points against Kentucky than they usually get.

For those reasons, I am highly skeptical of Mississippi State as a reliable comp and thus the estimated points for Tennessee against Kentucky from Kentucky’s perspective. If we exclude Mississippi State as a comp, that leaves Ole Miss as the only other possible comp for this year. The Rebels’ scoring offense is 41.7, and they got 42 total points (35 in regulation) against the Wildcats. For regulation, that’s 84% of what they usually get. Combining that with the Auburn comps, those teams got essentially 100% of what they usually get, which would mean Tennessee would score what it usually does: 29. So, the estimated points for Tennessee against Kentucky from Kentucky’s perspective would be 29 instead of 21.5. That would make the Kentucky perspective Tennessee 29, Kentucky 21, and the cumulative result Tennessee 31.3, Kentucky 19.6. That would make Tennessee an 11.5-point favorite.

So, my eyeballs are raising their eyebrows at one component of the Statsy Preview Machine’s analysis and going instead with a predicted score of Tennessee 31, Kentucky 20. Both I and the Statsy Preview Machine agree, though, that the Vols should cover the 6- to 6.5-point spread this week.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas has Tennessee as a 6- (current) to 6.5-point (opening) favorite. With an over/under of 46-49, that translates to something like Tennessee 27, Kentucky 21.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee by 5.2 (Vols 27, Wildcats 22) and gives the Vols a 62% chance of winning. He’s using a 6-point spread and does not like the Vols to cover.

Bottom line

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks the Vols will cover either the opening 6.5-point or the current 6-point spread. I do as well. But it’s close enough to not feel especially confident about it.

• Vegas: Tennessee 27, Kentucky 21 (Vols -6 to -6.5)
• SP+: Tennessee 27, Kentucky 22 (doesn’t cover)
• GRT’s SPM: Tennessee 28, Kentucky 20 (covers)
• Me: Tennessee 31, Kentucky 20 (covers)

Season results on Tennessee games

• Week 4: The SPM and I were both right (albeit overconfident) in saying the Vols would cover against South Carolina.
• Week 5: The SPM and I were both wrong in thinking the Vols would not cover and would win by only 6 points. They won by 23.
• Week 6: The SPM was right, but I was wrong. The SPM predicted Georgia to cover a 14.5-point spread with a score of Georgia 29, Tennessee 12, while my eyeball adjustment revised that to say the Bulldogs would not cover with a score of Georgia 24, Tennessee 20. Georgia covered with a score of Georgia 44, Tennessee 21.

What do y’all think?

News flash: Spreads matter. We generally measure the GRT Statsy Preview Machine against the Vegas opening spreads, and although the machine has done well in the past, it’s only batting .500 so far this season. Last week was particularly bad: Against Vegas opening spreads, it went 11-16 (40.74%) overall, 3-7 (30%) in Category 2, and 1-3 (25%) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 57-58 (49.57%) in Category 1, 25-24 (51.02%) in Category 2, and 11-11 (50%) in Category 3.

No big deal, it’s a weird season after all, right?

But the machine is tearing it up if you measure it against the same spreads that other systems are using. For instance, against the same spreads that SP+ measures against, our machine went 19-8 (70.37%) overall for the second week in a row last week. For the season against those spreads, it’s 70-45 (60.87%). So yeah, spreads matter.

SP+ went 11-16 (40.74%) against its spreads last week. It did slightly better against the same spreads we use (Vegas opening spreads), as it was 12-15 (44.44%). Against Vegas opening spreads for the season, it is still a killer 70-45 (60.87%).

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 7 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 7 Picks

Here’s what the machine is thinking this week:

There are five Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week.

What are you favorite games this week?