Gameday on Rocky Top

In trusty SP+, this is about as good as it gets: Texas A&M is 13th nationally in those ratings, 16.9 points better than the average team. The Vols are right behind them at 14th and 16.6. On a neutral field, the Aggies would be favored by 0.3 points.

In FPI, Texas A&M would be favored by 1.0 on a neutral field; the Aggies are 15th and the Vols 17th. I’ve really come to enjoy Kelley Ford’s ratings and visuals – there the Vols would be favored by 0.2 points on a neutral field, Tennessee 15th and A&M 16th. You get the idea.

The game, of course, will be played in Knoxville, and that means it’s -3 for the Vols in Vegas as of 6:20 Saturday morning. We will indeed see just how much Knoxville is worth in a few hours.

This will be the fifth game of Josh Heupel’s tenure played in toss-up range, with the line at +/- 3. (An honorable mention to the 2021 Pittsburgh game, which closed at Vols +3.5.)

There’s actually a nice trend in these games in Heupel’s tenure, with the lines squeaking ever so slightly in Tennessee’s favor:

• 2021 at Missouri +2.5, won 62-24 – the definitive “hello there” performance, which was followed by a 35-0 lead on South Carolina, which set up what became the first of many enormous football games…
• 2021 Ole Miss +1.5, lost 31-26 – the Vols just missed their first real opportunity to get a ranked win under Heupel…
• 2021 Kentucky -1, won 45-42 – but not the second
• 2022 LSU -2.5, won 40-13 – a mammoth, program-changing performance that was then eclipsed by an even more mammoth, even more program-changing one seven days later

Heupel is 4-3 in one-possession games at Tennessee, and 3-1 in these toss-ups…where, obviously, two of them got very un-toss-up shortly after kickoff.

Historically, he also caught these earlier than his predecessors. Missouri was game five of his first season; the aforementioned Pitt game was week two. Jeremy Pruitt was +3 against the Gators at home in his fourth game. Butch Jones didn’t see a line of less than seven points either way until the Vanderbilt/Kentucky closer in his first season. And Derek Dooley’s first team didn’t see a single-digit line until November! That was -2 against Ole Miss, a game Tyler Bray and the Vols won 52-14. It was Tennessee’s best performance against the spread until that Mizzou game two years ago.

The question then becomes, what do you do from there? Going back through Phil Steele’s against the spread data, I’ve got Phillip Fulmer at 25-15 in his career in games between +/- 3 at kickoff. That’s pretty good! He was also especially good from 2003-07, when the Vols might not have had such a decisive talent advantage compared to the 90s. At the moment, 2023’s closest historical comparisons in SP+ are the 1991 (Miracle at South Bend) and 2003 Vol squads, the latter of which split the SEC East three ways with Florida and Georgia. From 2003-07, Fulmer went 13-7 in Vegas toss-ups, including a ridiculous 8-2 in 2006 and 2007.

The house usually wins; there’s not much shame in toss-ups behaving exactly that way. Johnny Majors was 3-3-1 at UT in these games during his last four seasons, including a pair of SEC Championships. The best news for Tennessee is what kind of games you’re getting into toss-up range now. Much like LSU last year – much like South Carolina two weeks ago – this one can also serve as a gateway to something even more next Saturday. I wouldn’t expect Tennessee to get in +3 territory in Tuscaloosa no matter what happens today. But considering our last three trips to Tuscaloosa went +24.5, +34, and +36? All of this continues to head in the right direction…and the Vols, of course, beat Bama last year at +9.

Today, all signs point to even in what should be a great day for college football. This Tennessee team has no unique experience in a really close game; if we’re just going by possessions, A&M played their first one-possession game last Saturday by virtue of a late field goal and a failed onside kick.

But both teams are already tested in meaningful games.

And there’s plenty of that to go around today.

Go Vols.

When the lines came out this week, Vegas had Tennessee as a 3.5-point favorite over the Aggies with an over/under of 56.5. As I write this, the Vols are now -3, and the over/under is 55.5. Here’s Hat Guy’s two cents. Heading into Week 7, he’s switching from the best two comps to the best four.

Tennessee vs Texas A&M, according to Hat Guy

From Tennessee’s perspective

Texas A&M’s defense is allowing an average of 19.8 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Florida 16.8
• UTSA 29.2
• South Carolina 29.4
• Virginia 31.8

Tennessee’s points against those teams:

• Florida 16
• UTSA 45
• South Carolina 41
• Virginia 49

Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 141%

Texas A&M’s offense is scoring an average of 35.5 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Florida 27.2
• South Carolina 27
• UTSA 25.2
• Virginia 22.3

Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Florida 29
• South Carolina 20
• UTSA 14
• Virginia 13

Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 75%

Estimated score: Tennessee 28, Texas A&M 26.6

From Texas A&M’s perspective

Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 17.8 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Auburn 18.2
• Alabama 15.2
• Miami (Florida) 14.6
• Arkansas 25.3

Texas A&M’s points against those teams:

• Auburn 27
• Alabama 20
• Miami (Florida) 33
• Arkansas 34

Texas A&M’s offensive premium/discount: 156%

Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 36.2 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Miami (Florida) 39
• Arkansas 31.3
• Alabama 31.2
• Auburn 29.6

Texas A&M’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Miami (Florida) 48
• Arkansas 22
• Alabama 26
• Auburn 10

Texas A&M’s defensive premium/discount: 81%

Estimated score: Texas A&M 27.8, Tennessee 29.3

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

Hat Guy likes the Vols to win but A&M to cover (Vols, -1.5). He disagrees with the Vegas opening spread by only 2 points. His over/under, by the way, is 55.9, which is right between the early and late over/under according to Vegas.

Guts and Eyeballs

The closest defensive comp from Tennessee’s perspective is actually Florida. The other three are on the wrong side and significantly further away. Florida was by far Tennessee’s worst game, but . . . it was early, it was away, it was without Cooper Mays. Still, I don’t like it. Adding to that, A&M is the best offensive team our defense has faced so far this season. By a touchdown.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of something like Tennessee 30, Texas A&M 27 or one point less for each team. Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee 28-26 (Vols -2).

Bottom line

• Vegas: Vols -3 (~Tennessee 30, Texas A&M 27; Tennessee 29, Texas A&M 26)
• Hat Guy: Vols -1.5 (Tennessee 28.7, A&M 27.2) (does not cover)
• SP+: Vols -2 (Tennessee 28, A&M 26) (does not cover)
• Guts and Eyeballs: Worried that our offense is overvalued relative to A&M’s defense

What do y’all think?

Here’s our color-coded look at the Vols’ national rankings in each of the official NCAA stat categories as of the win over UTSA. There was, of course, some improvement in the numbers as a result of the victory, as the run game is about as good as it’s ever been under Heupel and the defense is elite at creating negative plays. There is still much room to improve, though, especially in the passing game on offense, penalties, and turnover margin.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Not a whole lot of change after the last two weeks.

Better Than Last Year: TFLs Allowed, Rushing Offense, Sacks Allowed.

Worse Than Last Year: Total Offense, Scoring Offense, and pretty much everything else. The passing game needs to get clicking to complement the run game and make up ground on last year.

Defense

Link to table

Better Than Last Year: Pretty much everything except Rushing Defense, Red Zone Defense, and Passes Intercepted. Look at the improvement in First Downs Defense and Passing Yards Allowed. Remarkable.

Special Teams

Link to table

Not much to note here. Net punting continues to improve, but still has a long way to go.

Turnovers and Penalties

Link to table

Penalties are still improving. Turnover margin still an issue.

Do you want to know if Missouri really deserves that 5-0 start? Or whether Kentucky can parlay its own 5-0 start into a fiesty-fueled upset over a Georgia team with its own questions? Whether Alabama has found its stride or whether Texas A&M might make a run from undefeated to the playoff?

You want answers? This Saturday, we’ll get some.

The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Friday, October 6, 2023

Gameday, October 7, 2023

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:

When you have this offense – especially when it just featured Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt, etc. – it’s easy to default the initial credit to the passing game. And even with a pair of interceptions and a heartbreaking injury, I thought Tennessee was good through the air Saturday night. Squirrel White had nine for 104, and the backs and tight ends combined for seven receptions. Variety may become the spice of life there as the Vols adjust to playing without Bru McCoy.

But in two other areas of the game, Tennessee redeemed its recent past and solidified a bright present.

Last year, South Carolina scored nine touchdowns in essentially ten drives. They punted once.

In Knoxville on Saturday night, South Carolina scored two touchdowns via one big play and one short field. Their other drives ended with:

• Punt
• Field Goal
• Turnover on Downs (4th & 2 at the UT 32)
• Punt (Three & Out)
• Punt (Three & Out)
• Punt (Three & Out)
• Turnover on Downs (4th & 1 at the UT 35)
• Punt (Three & Out)
• Field Goal
• Turnover on Downs

Spencer Rattler finished with 169 yards, his fewest since before the Tennessee game last season. And his 4.8 yards per attempt were the fewest of his entire career. It was an incredible response from Tennessee’s defense.

Meanwhile, Tennessee’s offense ran the ball 40 times for 238 yards, right at six yards per carry. That average is the most for the Vols against power five opponents not named Vanderbilt or Missouri in the last three seasons. On the year, Tennessee averages 6.18 yards per carry, sixth nationally.

The challenge will certainly increase after the bye week, when Tennessee will face five Top 20 defenses via SP+, the best of which currently belongs to Texas A&M at #4. But through the first five games of this season, Tennessee’s backs are putting themselves in great company around here:

Tennessee Yards Per Carry Leaders, Post-Fulmer Era (100+ carries)

1. Jaylen Wright 2023, 7.13 (current)
2. Dylan Sampson 2023, 6.89 (current)
3. Alvin Kamara 2015, 6.52
4. Jaylen Wright 2022, 5.99
5. Jabari Small 2023, 5.98 (current)
6. Alvin Kamara 2016, 5.79
7. Jabari Small 2021, 5.66
8. Ty Chandler 2018, 5.48
9. Marlin Lane 2012, 5.48
10. Eric Gray 2019, 5.34

With Kamara the only back around here to average more than six yards per carry for an entire season in the last 15+ years, you can see the company this trio is currently keeping, as well as the value of the ground game in Heupel’s offense. It’s one of the most intriguing questions going forward: what’s the balance of this stable of backs behind Tennessee’s full-strength offensive line vs the quality of defense they’re getting ready to face?

That performance against South Carolina set the table for good-to-great. Credit this group for not only putting last year’s questions to rest, but establishing new answers for what this offense can be this season. Big win last week, big football on the horizon. Welcome to October.

Go Vols.

Tennessee opened as an 11.5-point favorite over the Gamecocks this week. The line has now moved to 12.5, with the over/under at 62.5. Hat Guy has opinions. These are those.

From Tennessee’s perspective

South Carolina’s defense is allowing an average of 26.5 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• UTSA 28
• Virginia 37.8

Tennessee’s points against those teams:

• UTSA 45
• Virginia 49

Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 143%

South Carolina’s offense is scoring an average of 28.8 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Florida 27.8
• Virginia 20.8

Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Florida 29
• Virginia 13

Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 87%

Estimated score: Tennessee 37.9, South Carolina 25

From South Carolina’s perspective

Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 17.3 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• North Carolina 22
• Georgia 11.3

South Carolina’s points against those teams:

• North Carolina 17
• Georgia 14

South Carolina’s offensive premium/discount: 93%

Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 35 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• North Carolina 35.8
• Mississippi State 30.8

South Carolina’s defensive performance against those teams:

• North Carolina 31
• Mississippi State 30

South Carolina’s defensive premium/discount: 92%

Estimated score: South Carolina 16, Tennessee 32.2

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

Hat Guy likes the Vols to cover (-14.6) and disagrees with the Vegas opening spread by 3.1 points.

Guts and Eyeballs

How much is Neyland at night worth? Can the Tennessee defense rattle Rattler and keep him from getting into a hope-destroying groove? Legit questions, but without answers. The unknowns are real but cannot be quantified, so the numbers alone are the safest bet.

Other predictions from other systems

With an over/under of 62.5 and an opening line of Vols -11.5, Vegas is suggesting a score of something like Tennessee 37, South Carolina 25.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee 37-23 (Vols -14).

Bottom line

• Vegas: Tennessee -11.5 (~Tennessee 37, South Carolina 25)
• Hat Guy: Tennessee -14.6 (Tennessee 35.1, South Carolina 20.5) (covers)
• SP+: Tennessee -14 (Tennessee 37, South Carolina 23) (covers)
• Hat Guy, with organic Guts and Eyeballs: same as Hat Guy

What do y’all think?

The question of Josh Heupel’s best win isn’t up for debate; the Alabama game last year is Tennessee’s best win ever if you’re under the age of 25 or so. But one of the best things about being back in the national conversation is the multitude of good wins – so many, in fact, that some of them get sent to the backs of our minds in hopes of making room for the next one.

Two years ago this weekend, Tennessee went to Missouri after a “why didn’t we play better” loss in Gainesville. It was the floodgates, rapidly: the Vols won 62-24 and certainly got our attention. But we’d seen so much for so long, etc., no one was signaling that the Vols were back by beating Missouri.

In fact, the language we used in previewing South Carolina the following week was, “It’s a big game in the way it enables other games to be big.” It’s the kind of language that found its way to this game after Steve Spurrier arrived in Columbia: while never our biggest rival, the Gamecocks became enablers on the path from good to great. Beat Carolina, and you’re still alive in the division. Beat Carolina, and your season is still on track. Or in this case, beat Carolina, and you’re 4-1 heading into a bye week.

Two years ago, Tennessee did just that, in glorious fashion both literally and figuratively depending on your love for dark mode. Noon kick, no worries: the Vols blasted out of the gates 35-0 en route to a 45-20 victory. It was an amazing, “is this really happening?!” performance, one that helped pave the way for all the great things Heupel’s teams have done.

The question of Heupel’s hardest loss is, of course, also an easy answer. A year after beating South Carolina by 25 in a game we led by 35, South Carolina beat us by 25 in a game they led by 32.

This kind of swing – one team wins by 20+, then the other team wins by 20+ the next year – is unheard of at Tennessee since expansion in seasons that didn’t involve coaching volatility. It’s only happened three times among UT’s annual rivalries in that span that I can find:

• In 2009, Lane Kiffin’s Vols beat Georgia by 29. In Derek Dooley’s first season the following year, the Dawgs won by 31 in Athens.
• In 2016, Tennessee ran way from Missouri in the second half in a 63-37 offensive explosion. The following year, Missouri blasted Tennessee 50-17; Butch Jones was let go the following day. Heupel was the offensive coordinator for both Missouri teams.
• 2021 & 2022 South Carolina

Whatever your consideration of South Carolina as a rival, the annual part is going away. These two teams won’t meet in 2024, a first since 1991. In the post-Fulmer era, Tennessee and South Carolina have split the last 14 meetings.

And in preseason, if I asked you which win you’d absolutely want the most? This game would’ve at least made the short list.

There’s an air of unpredictability about, which is in part due to how bananas good Tennessee’s offense was last year in ways that are difficult to duplicate. They still scored 38 points on 507 total yards in this one last year. What also gets sent to the backs of our brains are the ways it didn’t always come so easily, even for Heupel’s teams here, and the Vols still dominated. The second half of that 2021 South Carolina game opened with Tennessee punting four times in a row, with two three-and-outs. Carolina trimmed the gap to 38-20 and had the ball with ten minutes left. The Vols got the stop, then added on for the final margin.

It’s never perfect, but often good. How good can the Vols be offensively Saturday night? How less-than can they make Spencer Rattler, who threw seven incompletions in this game last year and has thrown just 13 this season when not playing Georgia?

That’s the fun of all of this, of course. It’s a big game. And it creates the opportunity for others to be big. I’ll miss this fun little rivalry with its short commute. It’s given us Steve Tanneyhill and Tee Martin and Lou Holtz. It’s handed us some of our hardest losses. And it’s created opportunities for new life, from Michael Palardy to Josh Dobbs to black jerseys.

I’m very excited to see what this chapter holds on Saturday night.

Go Vols.

It’s Neyland at Night this Saturday at 7:30 p.m. as the Vols host the South Carolina Gamecocks on the SEC Network. The only serious competition for your attention is a Top 25 matchup between No. 11 Notre Dame and No. 17 (?!) Duke on ABC at the same time and No. 12 Alabama at Mississippi State on ESPN at 9:00 p.m.

On Friday night, there’s a Top 25 game between No. 10 Utah and No. 19 Oregon State that could be a nice appetizer for Gameday. Gameday then kicks off Saturday at noon with two games featuring future Vols opponents Texas A&M (vs Arkansas) and Kentucky (vs former opponent Florida.)

Saturday’s afternoon slate includes games between Georgia and Auburn (root for Auburn in this one in case the Vols lose another game between now and the day Georgia comes to Knoxville,) a Top 25 matchup between No. 3 Texas and No. 24 Kansas (!), future opponents Missouri and Vanderbilt in action against each other at 4:00, and No. 13 LSU at No. 20 Ole Miss at 6:00.

The No. 21 Vols have the prime time slot mostly to themselves at 7:30 on the SEC Network, with the aforementioned exceptions of Notre Dame/Duke and Alabama/Mississippi State.

The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Friday, September 29, 2023

Gameday, September 30, 2023

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:

Here’s our color-coded look at the Vols’ national rankings in each of the official NCAA stat categories as of the win over UTSA. There was, of course, some improvement in the numbers as a result of the victory, as the run game is about as good as it’s ever been under Heupel and the defense is elite at creating negative plays. There is still much room to improve, though, especially in the passing game on offense, penalties, and turnover margin.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

As expected after a relatively easy game, the offensive numbers improved a bit. The rushing offense is now not only better than last year’s season-long ranking of 26, but better than the prior year’s ranking of 11 as well. Also in the green are interceptions thrown and TFLs allowed. Total offense and scoring offense both improved significantly but still have some ground to make up.

In the red are most passing game numbers and down efficiencies.

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

This 2023 defense makes its living in the opponent’s backfield. Overall, the unit is much-improved from a yards-allowed perspective and a bit better than last year on the scoreboard. They’re much better at defending the pass and on first down. They’re not bad at anything except maybe intercepting the ball, and they can still improve against the run and on third down.

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Not much to note here. Net punting has improved, but is still a long way from green.

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Penalties improved after UTSA, which was much-needed for a team that has not yet found the Heuper-drive button. They could also dial up the turnover margin.