Gameday on Rocky Top

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Alabama Crimson Tide.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Running the ball.

Where’s the danger?

Passing the ball, protecting the quarterback, first downs, third downs.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Run the ball. Pass enough to avoid becoming one dimensional and hope that the Heuper Drive is finally fixed.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

SACK THE QUARTERBACK! Tennessee should be able to make the most of getting into Alabama’s backfield and either sacking the quarterback or tackling the ball carrier behind the line of scrimmage, creating negative plays and putting the offense behind the chains. The numbers also make it look like the Vols defense should be in good shape against the Alabama offense in almost every category. They should be good against the run and the pass and good on first downs, third downs, and fourth downs.

Where’s the danger?

The red zone.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Do their thing. Rack up the negative plays and make everybody on offense uncomfortable. Play solid defense both on the ground and through the air. Stop them early so they don’t get to the red zone and don’t let them have big chunk plays.

Special teams

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Not only is Tennessee good at returning punts, Alabama is not good at defending them. Points may be at a premium in this one, and getting a special teams score could again make a huge difference.

Where’s the danger?

Alabama’s kick returns. Net punting and field position favor Alabama.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Give Alabama an edge in turnovers and penalties.

Here’s our color-coded look at the Vols’ national rankings in each of the official NCAA stat categories as of the win over Texas A&M.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Attaboys: Rushing offense, TFLs allowed.

Must improve: 4th down conversion %, passing yards per completion, passing offense, team passing efficiency, red zone offense, first downs offense, completion percentage, 3rd down conversion percentage, scoring offense, total offense. Basically, the passing game is the thing weighing this offense down.

Defense

Link to table

Attaboys: This team is in the Top 30 in every defensive category except passes intercepted and red zone defense. They are elite in the havoc categories of sacks and TFLs, and they are in the Top 10 on first downs and fourth downs.

Special Teams

Link to table

Turnovers and Penalties

Link to table

There are so many stats to choose from to highlight the excellence of Tennessee’s defense on Saturday. But beyond just a single game, this one might speak best right now: at the halfway point of the 2023 campaign, Tennessee’s offense is ranked 18th in SP+.

The defense is ranked 15th.

Last year, the Vols finished second offensively in those ratings and 30th defensively. They were 7th and 47th in 2021. It’s a conversation we had both during and after last year’s 11-2 campaign: how good does a Tennessee defense need to be under Josh Heupel? Like, what’s good enough to win if the offense is going to score so many points?

Six games into this campaign, the questions about the defense have moved from floor to ceiling.

What’s good enough to win is, in fact, this defense when the offense is struggling. This defense, holding Texas A&M to 4.47 yards per play and 13 points.

In the second half, the Aggies went:

• Three-and-out
• Three-and-out
• Three-and-out, with the punt returned for a TD
• Field goal after having 1st-and-10 at the 11
• Missed 50-yard field goal after having 1st-and-10 at the 37
• Interception
• Interception

In national ratings, the Tennessee defense is:

• 11th in rushing yards per carry allowed, 2.98
• 14th in passing yards per attempted allowed, 5.9
• 10th in yards per play allowed, 4.41
• One of four teams in the country averaging 4+ sacks per game
• One of five teams in the country averaging more than 8.5 TFLs per game
• 23rd in opponent third down conversion percentage, 32.3%
• 11th in opponent fourth down conversion percentage, 29.4%
• 13th in opponent TD% in the red zone, allowing just 7 TDs on 17 attempts (41.2%)

How does all of that compare to what we’ve seen in Heupel’s first 2.5 seasons?

And for the, “Ain’t played nobody (with a good offense)!” in the back, I’d submit that so far this year, ain’t nobody played nobody! The margins, they are quite thin.

Tennessee Opponents in SP+ Offense

• Georgia 8th
• South Carolina 17th
• Alabama 19th
• Missouri 22nd
• Florida 30th
• Texas A&M 39th
• Kentucky 43rd
• UTSA 58th
• Vanderbilt 64th
• Virginia 108th
• UConn 126th

That’s right: the already-vanquished Gamecocks of South Carolina currently boast the best non-defending-champs offense on Tennessee’s schedule. And they scored two touchdowns via a short field and a busted play.

This brings us to the next big question: will it travel? It was late arriving in Gainesville and missed the gate entirely at South Carolina last season. But it was ready and willing in Baton Rouge.

How much is a Top 15 defense worth in Tuscaloosa?

Go Vols.

The No. 21 Tennessee Volunteers host the unranked but essentially even Texas A&M Aggies this afternoon at 3:30 on CBS. I have no idea why you would be lacking motivation for this one, but just in case, take this medicine:

Also, if you’re interested and can tolerate helpful advice from a Georgia fan without getting the shakes, here are some tips on how to watch college football while listening to homer broadcasts. Don’t worry, there is nothing there rhyming with Bob Fail Root. Or maybe I intentionally tuned it out.

The rest of the day, we’re pretty much rooting for anyone ranked No. 16 or above to lose, with the exception of Alabama because we want their resume to be spotless if/when we beat them and we don’t need them to have an additional loss for a cushion. For the purists, you can also root for Georgia to continuing winning until they come to Knoxville, but in doing so, you need to expect the Vols to run the table. If the Vols lose against Alabama (or anyone else in the SEC), beating Georgia wouldn’t matter because of the Vols’ prior loss to Florida. Me, I’m rooting for insurance. Not that it’s going to matter today, really, because Georgia’s got Vanderbilt at noon.

In addition to Alabama and Georgia, the noon slate features three other teams ranked in the Top 11. They’re also not likely to lose, but noon upsets are a thing and these would be good for the Vols. A Top 10 matchup between No. 8 Oregon and No. 7 Washington will take the national spotlight away from the Vols-Aggies at 3:30, but we’ll be locked in on Tennessee.

The evening slate features three Top 25 matchups, headlined by No. 9 USC at No. 10 Notre Dame. More relevant to Vols fans is No. 21 Missouri vs. No. 20 Kentucky. I don’t know that any of those helps or hurts the Vols, but they should be good entertainment.

The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Gameday, October 14, 2023

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:

In trusty SP+, this is about as good as it gets: Texas A&M is 13th nationally in those ratings, 16.9 points better than the average team. The Vols are right behind them at 14th and 16.6. On a neutral field, the Aggies would be favored by 0.3 points.

In FPI, Texas A&M would be favored by 1.0 on a neutral field; the Aggies are 15th and the Vols 17th. I’ve really come to enjoy Kelley Ford’s ratings and visuals – there the Vols would be favored by 0.2 points on a neutral field, Tennessee 15th and A&M 16th. You get the idea.

The game, of course, will be played in Knoxville, and that means it’s -3 for the Vols in Vegas as of 6:20 Saturday morning. We will indeed see just how much Knoxville is worth in a few hours.

This will be the fifth game of Josh Heupel’s tenure played in toss-up range, with the line at +/- 3. (An honorable mention to the 2021 Pittsburgh game, which closed at Vols +3.5.)

There’s actually a nice trend in these games in Heupel’s tenure, with the lines squeaking ever so slightly in Tennessee’s favor:

• 2021 at Missouri +2.5, won 62-24 – the definitive “hello there” performance, which was followed by a 35-0 lead on South Carolina, which set up what became the first of many enormous football games…
• 2021 Ole Miss +1.5, lost 31-26 – the Vols just missed their first real opportunity to get a ranked win under Heupel…
• 2021 Kentucky -1, won 45-42 – but not the second
• 2022 LSU -2.5, won 40-13 – a mammoth, program-changing performance that was then eclipsed by an even more mammoth, even more program-changing one seven days later

Heupel is 4-3 in one-possession games at Tennessee, and 3-1 in these toss-ups…where, obviously, two of them got very un-toss-up shortly after kickoff.

Historically, he also caught these earlier than his predecessors. Missouri was game five of his first season; the aforementioned Pitt game was week two. Jeremy Pruitt was +3 against the Gators at home in his fourth game. Butch Jones didn’t see a line of less than seven points either way until the Vanderbilt/Kentucky closer in his first season. And Derek Dooley’s first team didn’t see a single-digit line until November! That was -2 against Ole Miss, a game Tyler Bray and the Vols won 52-14. It was Tennessee’s best performance against the spread until that Mizzou game two years ago.

The question then becomes, what do you do from there? Going back through Phil Steele’s against the spread data, I’ve got Phillip Fulmer at 25-15 in his career in games between +/- 3 at kickoff. That’s pretty good! He was also especially good from 2003-07, when the Vols might not have had such a decisive talent advantage compared to the 90s. At the moment, 2023’s closest historical comparisons in SP+ are the 1991 (Miracle at South Bend) and 2003 Vol squads, the latter of which split the SEC East three ways with Florida and Georgia. From 2003-07, Fulmer went 13-7 in Vegas toss-ups, including a ridiculous 8-2 in 2006 and 2007.

The house usually wins; there’s not much shame in toss-ups behaving exactly that way. Johnny Majors was 3-3-1 at UT in these games during his last four seasons, including a pair of SEC Championships. The best news for Tennessee is what kind of games you’re getting into toss-up range now. Much like LSU last year – much like South Carolina two weeks ago – this one can also serve as a gateway to something even more next Saturday. I wouldn’t expect Tennessee to get in +3 territory in Tuscaloosa no matter what happens today. But considering our last three trips to Tuscaloosa went +24.5, +34, and +36? All of this continues to head in the right direction…and the Vols, of course, beat Bama last year at +9.

Today, all signs point to even in what should be a great day for college football. This Tennessee team has no unique experience in a really close game; if we’re just going by possessions, A&M played their first one-possession game last Saturday by virtue of a late field goal and a failed onside kick.

But both teams are already tested in meaningful games.

And there’s plenty of that to go around today.

Go Vols.

When the lines came out this week, Vegas had Tennessee as a 3.5-point favorite over the Aggies with an over/under of 56.5. As I write this, the Vols are now -3, and the over/under is 55.5. Here’s Hat Guy’s two cents. Heading into Week 7, he’s switching from the best two comps to the best four.

Tennessee vs Texas A&M, according to Hat Guy

From Tennessee’s perspective

Texas A&M’s defense is allowing an average of 19.8 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Florida 16.8
• UTSA 29.2
• South Carolina 29.4
• Virginia 31.8

Tennessee’s points against those teams:

• Florida 16
• UTSA 45
• South Carolina 41
• Virginia 49

Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 141%

Texas A&M’s offense is scoring an average of 35.5 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Florida 27.2
• South Carolina 27
• UTSA 25.2
• Virginia 22.3

Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Florida 29
• South Carolina 20
• UTSA 14
• Virginia 13

Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 75%

Estimated score: Tennessee 28, Texas A&M 26.6

From Texas A&M’s perspective

Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 17.8 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Auburn 18.2
• Alabama 15.2
• Miami (Florida) 14.6
• Arkansas 25.3

Texas A&M’s points against those teams:

• Auburn 27
• Alabama 20
• Miami (Florida) 33
• Arkansas 34

Texas A&M’s offensive premium/discount: 156%

Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 36.2 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Miami (Florida) 39
• Arkansas 31.3
• Alabama 31.2
• Auburn 29.6

Texas A&M’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Miami (Florida) 48
• Arkansas 22
• Alabama 26
• Auburn 10

Texas A&M’s defensive premium/discount: 81%

Estimated score: Texas A&M 27.8, Tennessee 29.3

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

Hat Guy likes the Vols to win but A&M to cover (Vols, -1.5). He disagrees with the Vegas opening spread by only 2 points. His over/under, by the way, is 55.9, which is right between the early and late over/under according to Vegas.

Guts and Eyeballs

The closest defensive comp from Tennessee’s perspective is actually Florida. The other three are on the wrong side and significantly further away. Florida was by far Tennessee’s worst game, but . . . it was early, it was away, it was without Cooper Mays. Still, I don’t like it. Adding to that, A&M is the best offensive team our defense has faced so far this season. By a touchdown.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of something like Tennessee 30, Texas A&M 27 or one point less for each team. Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee 28-26 (Vols -2).

Bottom line

• Vegas: Vols -3 (~Tennessee 30, Texas A&M 27; Tennessee 29, Texas A&M 26)
• Hat Guy: Vols -1.5 (Tennessee 28.7, A&M 27.2) (does not cover)
• SP+: Vols -2 (Tennessee 28, A&M 26) (does not cover)
• Guts and Eyeballs: Worried that our offense is overvalued relative to A&M’s defense

What do y’all think?

Here’s our color-coded look at the Vols’ national rankings in each of the official NCAA stat categories as of the win over UTSA. There was, of course, some improvement in the numbers as a result of the victory, as the run game is about as good as it’s ever been under Heupel and the defense is elite at creating negative plays. There is still much room to improve, though, especially in the passing game on offense, penalties, and turnover margin.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Not a whole lot of change after the last two weeks.

Better Than Last Year: TFLs Allowed, Rushing Offense, Sacks Allowed.

Worse Than Last Year: Total Offense, Scoring Offense, and pretty much everything else. The passing game needs to get clicking to complement the run game and make up ground on last year.

Defense

Link to table

Better Than Last Year: Pretty much everything except Rushing Defense, Red Zone Defense, and Passes Intercepted. Look at the improvement in First Downs Defense and Passing Yards Allowed. Remarkable.

Special Teams

Link to table

Not much to note here. Net punting continues to improve, but still has a long way to go.

Turnovers and Penalties

Link to table

Penalties are still improving. Turnover margin still an issue.

Do you want to know if Missouri really deserves that 5-0 start? Or whether Kentucky can parlay its own 5-0 start into a fiesty-fueled upset over a Georgia team with its own questions? Whether Alabama has found its stride or whether Texas A&M might make a run from undefeated to the playoff?

You want answers? This Saturday, we’ll get some.

The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Friday, October 6, 2023

Gameday, October 7, 2023

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:

When you have this offense – especially when it just featured Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt, etc. – it’s easy to default the initial credit to the passing game. And even with a pair of interceptions and a heartbreaking injury, I thought Tennessee was good through the air Saturday night. Squirrel White had nine for 104, and the backs and tight ends combined for seven receptions. Variety may become the spice of life there as the Vols adjust to playing without Bru McCoy.

But in two other areas of the game, Tennessee redeemed its recent past and solidified a bright present.

Last year, South Carolina scored nine touchdowns in essentially ten drives. They punted once.

In Knoxville on Saturday night, South Carolina scored two touchdowns via one big play and one short field. Their other drives ended with:

• Punt
• Field Goal
• Turnover on Downs (4th & 2 at the UT 32)
• Punt (Three & Out)
• Punt (Three & Out)
• Punt (Three & Out)
• Turnover on Downs (4th & 1 at the UT 35)
• Punt (Three & Out)
• Field Goal
• Turnover on Downs

Spencer Rattler finished with 169 yards, his fewest since before the Tennessee game last season. And his 4.8 yards per attempt were the fewest of his entire career. It was an incredible response from Tennessee’s defense.

Meanwhile, Tennessee’s offense ran the ball 40 times for 238 yards, right at six yards per carry. That average is the most for the Vols against power five opponents not named Vanderbilt or Missouri in the last three seasons. On the year, Tennessee averages 6.18 yards per carry, sixth nationally.

The challenge will certainly increase after the bye week, when Tennessee will face five Top 20 defenses via SP+, the best of which currently belongs to Texas A&M at #4. But through the first five games of this season, Tennessee’s backs are putting themselves in great company around here:

Tennessee Yards Per Carry Leaders, Post-Fulmer Era (100+ carries)

1. Jaylen Wright 2023, 7.13 (current)
2. Dylan Sampson 2023, 6.89 (current)
3. Alvin Kamara 2015, 6.52
4. Jaylen Wright 2022, 5.99
5. Jabari Small 2023, 5.98 (current)
6. Alvin Kamara 2016, 5.79
7. Jabari Small 2021, 5.66
8. Ty Chandler 2018, 5.48
9. Marlin Lane 2012, 5.48
10. Eric Gray 2019, 5.34

With Kamara the only back around here to average more than six yards per carry for an entire season in the last 15+ years, you can see the company this trio is currently keeping, as well as the value of the ground game in Heupel’s offense. It’s one of the most intriguing questions going forward: what’s the balance of this stable of backs behind Tennessee’s full-strength offensive line vs the quality of defense they’re getting ready to face?

That performance against South Carolina set the table for good-to-great. Credit this group for not only putting last year’s questions to rest, but establishing new answers for what this offense can be this season. Big win last week, big football on the horizon. Welcome to October.

Go Vols.