Gameday on Rocky Top

I’ve already watched more Tennessee baseball this year than I have since at least 2005, and maybe 2001. And we haven’t even gotten to the part of the year that a percentage of fans will only tune in for, the old “bad Lady Vol fan” demographic I used to be part of too: if you know they’re going to be in the tournament and should make a deep run, how much attention do you really pay before March? Or June?

The baseball Vols are packing out Lindsey Nelson with post-pandemic glee. But I would imagine no one is enjoying it more than those fans, however many or however few, who have followed the program closely in the 16 years since we last had a shot at Omaha.

It’s an absence a couple years longer than the football program’s from the national conversation, in an SEC sport just as tough, if not more so, to rise in. What Tony Vitello and those guys are doing is truly amazing.

Meanwhile, in football it’s still easier to measure the distance to the bottom than the top:

The “sheesh” is actually worth appreciating in terms of Tennessee’s brand, I suppose. The perception that this is, in fact, the worst it’s ever been for a program of UT’s historical caliber is, in fact, stronger than the reality of where the program’s actually been.

If you’re graduating from UT this month, grew up in the area, and are a lifelong fan…what do you actually remember?

It’s not just that a 21-year-old wasn’t alive in 1998. Do they remember 2007, when they were seven years old? Because since then…

And sometimes in the since then, we say, “Well, at least there were a few good times in 2015 and 2016.” That’s true, including circumstances from 2016 that may never be reproduced in any of our lifetimes between Bristol, 38 unanswered points on Florida, and the hail mary.

But not only did the Vols fail to win the SEC East those two years and fail to ascend any further, they’ve regressed. In SP+, three of Tennessee’s worst four seasons in the last 15 years are 2017, 2018, and 2020.

The other one in that group is 2013, the kind of suffering a first year coach in the SEC might expect. Maybe something similar will happen to Josh Heupel this fall, or maybe the Vols will take advantage of a softer schedule and make the most of it. Maybe it’ll get worse, maybe it’ll get better.

But being +34 at Alabama isn’t a sign of new depths. It’s a reflection of what’s been Tennessee’s reality for long enough to be named and accepted, which, again, is usually the best way to start moving forward.

Via covers.com, here are the biggest closing lines the Vols have faced in the post-Fulmer era:

Seven of those 11 belong, of course, to the Crimson Tide. Six of those 11 belong to the last four years.

At this point, it’s not new that Tennessee is a 4+ possession underdog to Alabama or Georgia. Whatever the Vols accomplished in years three and four under Butch Jones, his fifth season and Jeremy Pruitt’s tenure and removal set the most relevant circumstances Josh Heupel inherits.

So yeah: embrace the moment. This is who the Vols are right now. It’s not just letting go of the 90s or stretching everything back to 2008, it’s acknowledging the depths of the last four years in particular. The Vols are significant underdogs. At this point, the best way forward is to embrace that more than lamenting its relationship to what Tennessee used to be. It’s not that those days are so long ago as much as the days that have been most recent these last four seasons have been most bad.

Embrace the moment.

It’ll always be the best way to appreciate the climb.

When Tennessee went 1-for-11 on third down in the season opener but beat South Carolina anyway, we laughed it off. Fun anomaly! Let’s move on! And the Vols did, going 6-of-13 against Missouri the following week.

As you’ll recall, not much else went right from there. And as far as Tennessee’s offense was concerned, the opening performance at South Carolina was a red flag after all. In 2020, the Vol offense went 39-of-129 (30.23%) on third down, 119th in college football. It was the thing Tennessee’s offense was worst at.

There’s little differentiation between run, pass, short yardage, and long yardage. The Vols simply struggled everywhere on third down last season.

In the past, this kind of extreme struggle on third down was usually attributed to a quarterback injury. In the post-Fulmer era, the Vols have converted on less than 35% of their third down attempts in conference play four times in 12 years (stats via SportSource Analytics). Two of those came in 2011 and 2013. When Tyler Bray got hurt against Georgia and Derek Dooley burned Justin Worley’s redshirt two games later, the Vols went 2-of-14 against Alabama, 2-of-14 against South Carolina, and 4-of-18 at Arkansas. Two years later when it was Worley who went down with injury, Josh Dobbs was thrown to the fire and went 3-of-12 against Alabama, 2-of-13 at Missouri, and 4-of-13 against both Auburn and Vanderbilt. In both of those cases, playing great opponents (and maybe James Franklin’s best Vanderbilt team) were a big part of the problem.

In 2017, the offense showed signs of third down life early even as the defense was decimated by Georgia Tech: 5-of-12 against the Yellow Jackets, 7-of-13 against Indiana State, 6-of-16 at Florida, 7-of-18 against UMass. We all know how this year ended; the problem here wasn’t converting on third downs, but needing 18 of them against UMass. Still, the Vols were 25-of-59 (42.4%) on third down going into the Georgia game. From there, disaster: 1-of-12 against the Dawgs, 3-of-13 against South Carolina, 1-of-12 again at Bama, plus an agonizing 2-of-13 against Southern Miss. Absolutely nothing worked for this team or its offense in the second half of the year.

But last year the Vols were quite bad throughout, with the exception of Missouri early and Auburn (9-of-15) late. Take a look at the rest of the damage:

Gross.

(One interesting note I found that I’m not sure where to put: Harrison Bailey on first down last year went 24-of-26 for 345 yards (13.3 ypa) and three touchdowns. He had the second highest QB rating on first down in the nation.)

In good news: Central Florida has been pretty good at this.

UCF finished 11th nationally last fall at 48.75%, 61st in 2019 at 40.5%, and fifth in 2018 at 50.29%. They’ve won with and without high third down conversion rates, which probably speaks more to their defense than anything else, especially last season. But the idea that Josh Heupel’s offense is big plays or three-and-outs only isn’t the case: this group has been really efficient on third downs.

Also of note: Missouri finished 20th nationally in third down conversions in 2017, and 42nd in 2016. Heupel’s first Tigers struggled in October – 4-of-14 at LSU, 4-of-15 at Florida, 4-of-15 against Kentucky – but had it rolling by November, as Tennessee’s 2016 defense will attest to (11-of-20 against the Vols).

The best way to avoid struggling on third down remains, of course, to avoid struggling on first and second down. In this way, Heupel’s offense is also more than simply big plays: 30% of UCF’s third downs last year required only 1-3 yards to gain for the first down. For the Vols, only 26.5% of their third downs required 1-3 yards to gain, the same number of snaps they took requiring 4-6 yards to gain. One additional note here: Central Florida actually had a higher percentage of 3rd-and-10+ than the Vols did last year (23.75% to 22.8%) despite having a much better offense overall; my assumption here is they were far more likely to throw two incomplete passes on first and second down and face a 3rd-and-10.

For Tennessee, again, it can’t really get worse. But I’m curious to see how much efficiency shows up with this offense in year one, on top of the explosiveness we all know is out there. Will the Vols find themselves in a ton of 3rd-and-10s? Or will this new offense find its way to more success not just through trying to hit home runs, but giving themselves to advance on third-and-manageable?

More in the Making Progress series:

Completion Percentage Allowed

Every offseason, we run a series on where Tennessee can make the most improvement. It’s a good way to examine how the Vols might get better, fastest. And for all the pendulum swing of Jeremy Pruitt to Josh Heupel, the place Tennessee has the most room for improvement from last year is on the defensive side of the ball.

A million years ago, #3 Tennessee played #2 Nebraska in the Orange Bowl. It was Peyton Manning’s final game, and even though a win by #1 Michigan in the Rose Bowl the day before had eliminated the Vols from the national title picture, there was still hope an elite 1997 Vol squad could end the season with a huge win over the Cornhuskers. Instead, those Vols succumbed to the Thanos-like inevitability of Nebraska’s triple option: 68 carries for 409 yards, a 14-3 halftime hole quickly becoming a 42-17 beat down. In the third quarter, Nebraska had three touchdown drives of 70+ yards that I’m not sure included any passing plays.

If they had, it would’ve been Scott Frost pulling the trigger. A lifetime later, Frost left Central Florida to return to the alma mater, paving the way for Josh Heupel to get his first head coaching gig and come to Knoxville three years later. College football has changed quite a bit from 1997 to 2021. But the inevitability of another team coming down the field on us was all too familiar last fall.

In 2020, Tennessee’s defense allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.2% of their passes, 125th of 127 teams playing last fall. This is where the Vols have the most room for improvement in 2021.

As the game has evolved, completion percentage is slightly on the rise around the country. In conference play, the national median completion percentage was between 58-59% from 2013-17. The last three years, it’s climbed to 59.4%, 60.6%, and 61.4% last fall. (Stats via SportSource Analytics)

Tennessee’s struggle in this department, somewhat surprisingly, can be traced directly to Pruitt’s defenses. Between Phillip Fulmer’s exit in 2008 and Jeremy Pruitt’s arrival in 2018, Vol defenses allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 60+ percent of their passes in just two seasons: a depth-depleted group in 2011 (60.9%), and Sal Sunseri’s infamous unit the following year (65.3%). Tennessee was actually pretty good in this department under John Jancek, finishing 15th nationally in completion percentage allowed in conference play in 2014, and ninth in 2015.

But the last three years, Tennessee’s defense has struggled mightily to disrupt opposing passing games: 67.5% allowed in 2018, 61.9% in 2019, and 68.2% last year (again, all numbers in conference play for the apples-to-apples comparison with last fall).

In the last 12 seasons, opposing quarterbacks completed 70+% of their passes against the Vol defense on at least 25 attempts 13 times. Four of those 13 happened last season, and the three highest completion percentages allowed all happened in the last two seasons:

No matter how good Tennessee’s offense could’ve been or would’ve been if the quarterback position had been settled, and no matter how good the Vol defense could be against the run – 27th nationally in yards per carry allowed in conference play! – when teams can routinely drop back and get whatever they want through the air, there is indeed an inevitability to the end result. On third-and-short (1-3 yards) last season, the Vol defense allowed 16-of-18 (88.9%) for 13 first downs through the air. On third-and-medium (4-6 yards), it was 17-of-25 (68%) for 16 first downs.

Tennessee obviously needs to impact the opponent passing game in far greater ways. But the Vols were actually fairly average in getting to the quarterback: 20 sacks over 10 conference games, 67th nationally in sacks per game. Texas A&M is the only game where the defense failed to record a single sack, and they got Felipe Franks four times, despite his 72% completion percentage. So while the Vols can certainly aspire to be more than average in getting the QB, it’s not where the most improvement can be done.

The inevitability of last season certainly felt worst watching teams run routes over the middle of the field. And this is where the struggle may still be quite real, as the Vols are scrambling at linebacker on the depth chart. But whether third-and-short or third-and-medium, you could get what you wanted far more often than not against Tennessee’s coverage last fall. Tim Banks and the Vols will need to scheme it better than Pruitt’s defenses did for three years to improve completion percentage rates. But they’ll also need bodies to run those schemes; it’s a big opportunity and a big task for whoever can get healthy, learn the system, and translate it to something productive in disrupting the passing game.

The good news is, this is where the most improvement can be made. And for fan and team morale, anything better than the inevitability of a completed pass is going to look and feel very much like progress.

Year one speculation is a bad idea, especially bad when you’re coming off a pandemic season, are facing the newness of the transfer portal, and are in your fifth year one since 2009. But hey, let’s give it a try!

Josh Heupel is also burdened with uncertain penalties via the NCAA. He should be less burdened with fan expectations, which previously went something like this:

• Kiffin: New and different, brash in ways that made you defend him basically every day of the off-season, recruiting well enough to be excited, and the Vols were still just two years removed from Atlanta.
• Dooley: We love you, because you aren’t Lane Kiffin.
• Butch: Recruited well enough to raise expectations before his teams played a game, and knew going in that a single win over a ranked opponent would be more than Dooley was able to accomplish in three years.
• Pruitt: Nevermind all that, and nevermind all the drama, now we’ve got a football coach’s football coach! That should be enough to make a difference, right?

There’s a freedom and, I think, something healthy in the letting go of the past that comes with everything Tennessee’s been through. But there’s also something healthy in the opportunity that’s before Heupel now, not just x years from now when the program is hopefully in a better place.

A couple months ago, Bill Connelly released his first 2021 SP+ projections. We love SP+ because of the value it places on every snap and the way it helps when comparing teams of similar records. But it’s also valuable to us because it’s unbiased, indifferent to whether the Vols win or lose. All of the above make it an early, helpful place to start when thinking about what forward progress might look like in 2021.

Tennessee’s initial 2021 SP+ projection is 6.1 (points better than the average team on a neutral field). That ranks 49th nationally, but for Heupel in year one, I think the more important context is where that puts Tennessee compared to years past:

Tennessee’s 2021 projection doesn’t flirt with the peaks of the Butch Jones era or Phillip Fulmer’s 2006-07 seasons. But it would qualify as UT’s second-best season in the last five years. And it would give our last three year ones a run for their money.

Kiffin’s first and only year is an odd comparison, mostly because of its recency to the good old days. And though that team was stout in SP+, in still only finished 7-6. But the others – Derek Dooley in 2010, Butch Jones in 2013, Jeremy Pruitt in 2018 – still offer similar goals and possibilities to what the Vols will be after in 2021.

Dooley’s year went the most predictably overall, though it was two after-the-buzzer losses away from going even better. Looking at the schedule, we thought the Vols might start 2-6 and have to win four in a row to get bowl eligible, which is exactly what they did. “Get to a bowl game,” is always a good year one goal when you’re starting over; “Get six wins,” might be Josh Heupel’s version depending on NCAA penalties. It’s the most straightforward pass/fail of a coach’s first year.

That was true for Butch Jones, hampered by the most difficult schedule any Tennessee team has faced in the SEC expansion era post-1992. The Vols caught Marucs Mariota and Oregon in Week 2, and drew BCS title game participant Auburn from the SEC West. Overall, the Vols played six teams ranked in the Top 11, five of them in a row. Tennessee beat one, getting #11 South Carolina in Knoxville, and almost beat another against Georgia. Those two performances instantly felt like more than Derek Dooley accomplished in three years. But the season lost its footing at the end in a 14-10 loss to Vanderbilt, costing the Vols bowl eligibility and a chance to declare year one an outright success.

Something similar happened to Jeremy Pruitt, who scored the third-biggest upset of my lifetime via Vegas at +14.5 over Auburn, then beat #12 Kentucky by 17. Success was at hand! Then the Vols lost to Missouri by 33 and Vanderbilt by 25, finishing 5-7.

The good news for Heupel’s year one starts with the schedule. Derek Dooley hosted #7 Oregon in week two, Butch Jones got #2 Oregon in week three, Jeremy Pruitt got #17 West Virginia out the gate. Josh Heupel gets Pittsburgh, in Knoxville.

That helps push Tennessee’s expected win total to a conversation about not just six wins and potential bowl eligibility, but seven as the most likely outcome. This makes for an intriguing year one possibility, even if it always remains a hypothetical due to a bowl ban: if the Vols finish 7-5 and win the ________ Bowl, Heupel would have the best year one of any coach since Phillip Fulmer.

ESPN’s FPI projects the Vols at 6.6 wins, with a 79.6% chance to earn bowl eligibility. And SP+ will put the Vols in that neighborhood as well. You don’t have to pursue any fantasies with Florida, Alabama, or Georgia. And, despite Tennessee starting over again, the same should be true for Bowling Green, Tennessee Tech, South Alabama, and Vanderbilt against us. The Falcons, in particular, are an appealing opener for Josh Heupel’s Vols: 126th in points allowed last season, 125th in preseason SP+ projections.

Two of the remaining five games do lean more than we probably perceive as fans, at least according to FPI and SP+. South Carolina is likewise starting over; the Gamecocks and Vols have played one-possession games eight of the last nine years. But the advanced metrics lean toward Tennessee. And Ole Miss, depending on your age bracket, still doesn’t carry the weight of, “They’re better than us,” in fan expectation. But in the advanced metrics, they do. Depending on how everyone starts, the October 16 tilt in Lane Kiffin’s return to Knoxville could become one of Tennessee’s biggest games of the season. But the Vols project as the underdog, not as an equal.

Equality comes in the other three match-ups, the ones that, from late April, look most likely to decide the ultimate outcome of Tennessee’s season: Pittsburgh, at Missouri, and at Kentucky. They each carry their own punch: the first “real” test for Heupel in week two, a return to his offensive coordinator home in week five, and a chance for revenge against the Cats off the bye week. If the other projections hold, you’re 5-4 before taking these three games into account. Lose all three, and you’re the third consecutive Vol coach to go 5-7 in year one. Win one, and you’re bowl eligible. Win two, and you’ve hit 7-5, with a chance to at least entertain the argument that you’ve had the most successful year one since Fulmer. (And, of course, win all three, and you’re 8-4…which is as good as any Tennessee coach has done in any year since Fulmer.)

We’ll see. But even though there’s plenty working against Tennessee in its fifth year one since 2009, there’s plenty of opportunity to make it the most memorable one since then as well.

Thanks to everyone who already contributed to the various projected SEC win totals for our upcoming preseason publication. Along the same lines, we’d now like to provide you with an opportunity to contribute to the publication’s preseason Top 25.

We’ve include all FBS teams in the list for the sake of completeness and to avoid excluding any outlier someone might feel strongly about. But to make things easier, we’ve also ordered the teams according to our own Power Rankings (rather than alphabetically) so you don’t have to go scrolling as much. The teams may not be in the order you prefer, but they shouldn’t be too far away.

I don’t know about you, but this Vols fan is absolutely starved for offense. Downright ravenous. Plays, points, yards . . . I want it all. Not just every thing, but all of every thing. I’m desperate for an offense that is fun to watch, is what I’m saying.

Tomorrow, at Tennessee’s Orange and White spring game, we get our first real look at Josh Heupel’s team, and I’m hoping it’s like an endless buffet of delicious offensive productivity.

It is, after all, what they’re selling. You’ll recall that when Danny White hired Heupel from UCF, he was billed as an offensive guru. A few tweets to refresh your recollection:

Points: Check.

Yards: Check.

Tempo: Check.

Quarterback development: Check

Tasty offense: Check

Is it a pipe dream to hope that Tennessee’s offense can satisfy our appetites as early as this year? Has Neyland Stadium been renovated into a set for a Fantasy Island reboot? Maybe.

But here’s the thing. In 2015, Missouri’s offense was last in the SEC, putting up only 280.9 total yards per game. And they were last by a long shot, as the next-worst team averaged 326.5 yards per game. Heupel then arrived as offensive coordinator in 2016, and the Tigers didn’t just improve, they catapulted ahead to first in the SEC and averaged 500.5 yards per game! (I’m using my one exclamation point for the year right there.)

Last to first. In his first year. At Missouri.

Tennessee’s offense last year, by the way, wasn’t last in the league. It was only No. 11 with an average of 346.2 yards per game. It’s not crazy to think that the Vols’ offense can improve this season, perhaps even dramatically so.

But, look. I hear you. Shoot, I am you. I’m not just the same old Charlie Brown who keeps coming back believing he’s finally going to kick Lucy’s football this time. At this point, I’m more like Pawpaw Charlie, retired and sitting on the porch in the old man rocking chair sipping tea. I’m inclined to just watch from afar for awhile and see what happens before I dispatch my heart back to the front line. No way in Hades am I falling for that again. I’m much too seasoned, too broken for that. Too suspicious and skeptical. Too . . . smart for that.

Or am I?

. . . .

Last to first, you say? Really? In his first year? At Missouri? Huh.

Well, maybe I’ll just wander over and take a little peek at the buffet we’ve been promised. Does the tempo look tasty? Can I come back every 20 seconds for a new play(te)? Do they have all-you-can-eat yards and points? That sounds . . . good.

Yes, I know it’s practice. Yes, I realize it’s not exactly lunchtime yet. And yes, I understand that the spring trailer and the fall feature often have little to do with each other.

But right now, I just want to see the options and get a little whiff. Are we talking three choices of yesterday’s leftovers reheated with a light bulb, or are we talking a luxury Vegas or cruise ship spread?

Tomorrow may not hold any answers at all. But I hear there might be food, and everything tastes better when you’re hungry.