NFL Draft analysts are overthinking Derek Barnett
Listening to NFL Draft experts discuss former Tennessee Vol defensive end Derek Barnett is like taking a college seminar entitled “Case Studies in Overthinking Things.” No offense to Todd McShay — because he’s saying great things about Barnett — but he’s also a pretty good example of the overthinking on Barnett. In one breath, he notes that Barnett had 52 tackles for loss and 33 sacks, one more than Reggie White’s record of 32. In the next, he’s fretting over Barnett’s NFL Combine and Tennessee Pro Day results, troubled over not being able to reconcile the two sets of data.
Dude, you’re thinking too much. The Combine and Pro Days are meant to help teams gather data to allow them to form an educated opinion about what a player might be able to do. It’s not a perfect metaphor, but let’s think about it in legal terms and call it circumstantial evidence. You look at the data and you think, “Yeah, I think this guy is X.” Or, “All of this stuff makes it look like this guy is X.” Or even, “I know beyond a reasonable doubt that this guy is X.” You can make a decision on circumstantial evidence; we do it all of the time. If the data makes you believe enough to act, then go ahead and act.
But if you actually see the guy do X, well, then you have absolute proof. A smoking gun, you might say. Actual knowledge. And it should go without saying, but actual knowledge is better than circumstantial evidence. If you know something to be true, and if the circumstantial evidence confuses you because it leads to a different conclusion, then there’s something wrong with your circumstantial evidence, not with your knowledge.
And yeah, I know that they use the Combine and Pro Days to help determine whether college production will translate to the NFL. I get it.
But I’ll take 33 sacks over a 40 time or a vertical leap any day. It ain’t 40 yards to the quarterback, folks, and he’s not straight up in the air, either. Those things are designed to tell you whether your guy can sack the quarterback. So let me save you the trouble: Derek Barnett can sack the quarterback. I’ve seen it. And so have you.
Joshua Dobbs’ Stock Taking Off Prior to Next Week’s Draft
Former Tennessee quarterback Joshua Dobbs has never halfway done anything.
From the moment he decided to play football at a young age, he was all-in. He was good enough at baseball to play collegiately. If there was a club to be in during high school, Dobbs was a member. Volunteer work? How about every week. Impacting lives? Countless people in countless ways, including kids that are afflicted by life-altering issues.
He is outspoken about an alopecia condition that affects him and many others, and he became best buds with a Knoxville-area kid battling cancer. Oh, and maybe you’ve heard of his scholastic achievements, majoring in aerospace engineering at Tennessee while absorbing the phonebook-sized playbook that comes with every SEC starting signal-caller gig.
So, why should you be surprised Dobbs is suddenly becoming one of the surging prospects leading up to next week’s draft? It’s just Dobbs going out and seizing the opportunity to fulfill his dream of playing on the next level.
Doubters gonna doubt. Dobbs gonna shed ’em like would-be tacklers. Rinse, repeat. Same thing that happened during his entire Tennessee career.
Many want to talk about him being the next Dak Prescott. I’ve uttered that he has that ability myself, and even Jon Gruden compared the two in the latest episode of Gruden’s QB Camp, according to WATE reporter Emily Proud: “I saw something special in Dak Prescott last year and, I’m not saying I’m always right, but I see it in [Josh Dobbs] too,” Proud tweeted, quoting Gruden.
That’s high praise for Dobbs, comparing him to a player who took the NFL by storm in 2016, usurping All-Pro Tony Romo following an injury and causing Dallas to move away from the Romo era. As a matter of fact, it may be too high. Why can’t Dobbs just be Dobbs? He’s improved every year, and with some actual coaching at the position, he can certainly play on the next level. At what level? Let him prove that.
We always get caught up in comparing Amateur Player X to Professional Player Y, just like we compare High School Player X to College Player Y. It’s unhealthy, and it’s irrational. Dobbs can pave his own way, as he’s proven the past several months.
After his Tennessee career dwindled, many pro scouts were talking about Dobbs switching positions on the next level after latching onto a team with a free-agent contract because he almost certainly wouldn’t be drafted. Then, he crept into a few [worthless] mock drafts as a late-round pick as his name began to float out there as a potential sleeper.
After a quality Senior Bowl outing where he completed 12-of-15 passes for 104 yards and an interception, he saw his name move into the fifth round of some mocks. Dobbs then looked great at the NFL Combine and at UT’s Pro Day, he had what Tennessee director of player personnel Bob Welton, a former NFL scout, told Mike Griffith was the best workout for NFL scouts he’s ever seen.
Is that hyperbole? Maybe. Welton is a close friend of Butch Jones, after all. But maybe it wasn’t too far off.
Like everything else in his life, Dobbs’ pro day was self-made, and, like Welton, many were impressed.
“Joshua Dobbs was his own quarterback guru, scripting his own plays for the workout portion of the pro day,” wrote senior analyst Gil Brandt at NFL.com. “He started with four go routes and dropped each into the bucket. He ended with four go-routes and threw perfect passes about 50 yards down the field.”
Much like was the case while in Knoxville, Dobbs was his own quarterbacks coach that day.
So, how much will it all ultimately pay off? That’s the ultimate question here, isn’t it? Well, the answer is as tough to tackle as Dobbs in the open field. CBS Sports has him projected in the sixth round. ESPN.com noted draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. believes the 6’3″, 216-pound dual-threat signal-caller could be taken as high as the second or third round. Teams such as the Browns and Texans—two teams desperate for quarterbacks—visited with Dobbs in the past week. Maybe they’re seeing what I see:
He’s worth the gamble, folks.
We always get caught up in measurables and workouts, and all of those are incredibly important. But Dobbs has experienced high marks in both areas. Look at his college body of work. There was inconsistency, but there is also constant improvement despite a lack of singular coaching focus on his position. He finished his UT career leading the SEC in total offensive yards per game, passing efficiency, touchdown passes and non-kicking points accounted for in 2016, and he added 713 yards and nine touchdowns rushing. That’s why he was named the league’s Offensive Player of the Year.
If you want a player with a high upside as an athlete, he’s one of the three potential steals alongside Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes. If he develops, you’ve got the intelligent, articulate, well-rounded poster boy for your franchise, somebody who not only won’t embarrass you off the field but also make you proud he’s yours. For a Cleveland franchise that drafted Johnny Manziel, he’d be the antithesis.
He’s the kind of player who can help you in a lot of ways, including on the sideline, on the practice field and in the community. And that’s only if he doesn’t star on Sundays, which certainly isn’t out of the question.
Dobbs has some question marks, but, really, how much bigger are they than any other gamble in the draft once you get past the mid-second round?
Sure, he’s raw—frustratingly so for UT fans who watched him lead the Vols through parts of the past four seasons. But that’s only because head coach Butch Jones stubbornly failed to hire a quarterbacks coach until a player who desperately needed one exhausted eligibility. What did Dobbs do? He improved each season under center despite having a grizzly, old offensive line coach tutoring him at the position.
Was his footwork great? Is his arm elite? Is his release point consistent? Did he always make the best decisions? No, but how many games did Dobbs win just being Dobbs? How many touchdowns did he score at pivotal times? How many players missed the magician in the open field when he took off with the rush?
Despite being a polarizing quarterback during much of his Tennessee career, Dobbs at times single-handedly led the offense to huge numbers. He was a transcendent athlete who’ll be desperately missed in Knoxville, whether you believe that now or not. The Vols haven’t had somebody who could take over games at the position like him since Peyton Manning, and they’ve not had a runner as effective as him at the position since Condredge Holloway.
That’s two legends, and it’s two players Dobbs doesn’t need to be compared to. But to be spoken in the same sentence as either of those two players is high praise. In case you’re keeping track at home, one of those was an NFL star; the other didn’t make it despite putting up some nice numbers in the Canadian Football League. One was a prototypical dropback passer, and the other was more of a run-first guy. Where does Dobbs fall? Somewhere in the middle of the two, much like his pro potential.
Many people will write many words about Dobbs over the course of his career, no matter how long or short it is. His performances in all the practice-atmosphere settings have warranted articles in previous weeks, and now everybody has an opinion on his stock, his ceiling and his pro ability. The team that drafts him will watch as beat writers file plenty of stories rehashing the same things said here through mini-camp and leading up to the season, maybe onward after that.
Some will talk about how Dobbs will be a star. Many others will talk about why he’ll be a flop.
You’ll get no prediction either way here. All I’m going to say is the kid has shown he deserves a chance, just by his college body of work, the way he conducts himself off the field and the brilliant things he does on it. I’ve said it for years, and other former naysayers are seeing it now and writing as much. He’s proven he can wow the crowd in big opportunities, and it couldn’t happen to a better kid, somebody who works just as hard to be good off the field as on it; maybe more so.
He’s going to sign a contract and make some big bucks. He’s going to give his dream a swing, and if it doesn’t work out, you know what? He’s proven he’ll undoubtedly go pro [and be successful] in something other than sports.
He’s not the next superstar rookie like Dak Prescott. He won’t be the next big-name bust like Robert Griffin III.
He’s Joshua Dobbs. And that’s been good enough so far. Who’s gonna bet against the future?
Gameday Today: Everybody’s becoming something, and somebody somewhere is (maybe?) throwing shade
FOOTBALL
NFL DRAFT
RECRUITING
BONUS
WATCH every single one of Tennessee’s touchdowns from the 2016 season
Would you like to watch every single one of the Tennessee Volunteers’ touchdowns from last season? It’s April, so of course you would!
Everybody owes CNTaco a big hug for pulling all of this together.
WATCH Josh Dobbs on Jon Gruden’s QB Camp (full episode)
So it’s no secret that we’re fans of Jon Gruden around here. Or that we’re big fans of Josh Dobbs. So when I first started seeing that Gruden was going to feature Dobbs on one of his Quarterback Camp episodes, I was excited to see it. I had a bit of time to watch yesterday while waiting in a parking lot to pick up my daughter, and I sat there for almost the entire episode.
I love this stuff anyway, and the fact that it’s Gruden and Dobbs, Dobbs and Gruden just makes it all that much better. And the cherry on top? Gruden assigning the Florida spy guy to “defend” Dobbs during their drills. And the props the guy gives Dobbs afterwards saying essentially that the Gators knew during last year’s game that they had to force Dobbs to win the game through the air. Which he did.
So do yourself a favor and set aside about a half hour to watch all of this thing. You won’t be disappointed.
Gameday Today: Easter greetings run the gambit as Tennessee chases big guys
A few recruiting tidbits this morning: Georgia legacy Tommy Tremble recently visited Tennessee and called it his “best visit.” ($) Tennessee is also chasing offensive lineman Cooper Mays ($). And the Vols have offered defensive tackle Kristian Williams, who now plans to visit.
The Easter greetings from the official Twitter accounts of SEC schools ranged from Ole Miss’ Hugh Freeze boldly going straight S.M. Lockridge to Tennessee’s, which might as well contain the caption, “This Easter holiday brought to you by Nike.” (They appear to have changed that, if you look at the tweet now, but the screen cap below is from the one originally embedded in the post from Gridiron Now.)
Trey Smith on why he’s mature beyond his years
Grant Ramey with 247 Sports has a great feature on the surprising maturity of incoming 5-star offensive tackle Trey Smith. Smith talked to the media after Tuesday’s practice and answered a question about the reason for his maturity by speaking about his mother, who died when he was 15. That experience accelerated Smith’s growth, and he’s devoted to making her proud by becoming the kind of man she would have wanted him to be.
It’s what caused him to enroll early, to maintain his humility in the face of fawning college coaches, and to remain both competitive (he’s an absolute monster, don’tcha know) and coachable. If you have a bit of time, go check out the article at the link above. It’s worth the time.
Josh Dobbs and AJ: The Ice Cream Men
Today on Gameday: Jajuan Jennings and John Kelly leading the way on offense
Tennessee wide receivers coach Kevin Beard is liking his guys. He especially likes returning starter Jajuan Jennings, who just needs to be the alpha male he naturally is.
But speaking of leaders, running back John Kelly is relishing the spotlight and taking it on himself to coach up Carlin Fils-aime and the other running backs when he gets the chance. “He’s probably more vocal than he’s ever been,” coach Jones said. “He’s coaching the younger players. He’s demanding.”
Good. With Kelly and Jennings and the experience along the offensive line, the offense should at the very least be confident, which should go a long way in making things just a bit easier for whichever guy wins the starting quarterback gig. The latest report on that competition is that it’s still a competition.
On the other side of the ball, Darrell Taylor is really beginning to make a name for himself, even earning comparisons to Derek Barnett.
And on the baseball diamond, freshman Justin Ammons scored the game-winning run against #10 Auburn yesterday thanks to a sacrifice fly by Andre Lipcius.
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