Butch Jones: Comebacks, Blown Leads, and Pace of Play

In late September 2015, after two of the most difficult losses of the modern era, we researched how often the Vols had historically blown leads. In 17 years Phillip Fulmer’s teams blew a two-possession lead in a loss just six times:

  • 1994 at Mississippi State:  led 21-7 third quarter, lost 24-21
  • 1995 at Florida:  led 30-14 second quarter, lost 62-37
  • 1999 at Arkansas:  led 24-14 third quarter, lost 28-24
  • 2001 vs Georgia:  led 14-3 first quarter, lost 26-24
  • 2001 SEC Championship vs LSU:  led 17-7 second quarter, lost 31-20
  • 2006 vs Florida:  led 17-7 third quarter, lost 21-20

In just his first four years, Butch Jones’ teams have also blown a two-possession lead in a loss six times:

  • 2014 at Georgia:  led 10-0 first quarter, lost 35-32
  • 2014 vs Florida:  led 9-0 fourth quarter, lost 10-9
  • 2015 vs Oklahoma:  led 17-0 second quarter, lost 31-24 (2OT)
  • 2015 at Florida:  led 27-14 fourth quarter, lost 28-27
  • 2015 vs Arkansas:  led 14-0 first quarter, lost 24-20
  • 2016 at Vanderbilt:  led 34-24 third quarter, lost 45-34

Fulmer’s Vols never blew a two-possession lead in the fourth quarter. Jones’ Vols did it three times in a span of 13 games against Florida in 2014 and 2015 and Oklahoma in 2015. Before then you have to go back to 1986 to find a Tennessee squad that lost a game in which it led by two possessions in the fourth quarter.

But, consider this:  by my count Fulmer’s Vols came from two possessions behind to win 10 times in 17 years:

  • 21 points: Kentucky 2001, LSU 2005
  • 18 points:  Arkansas 1998
  • 17 points:  Georgia 2006
  • 15 points:  Kentucky 1995, Vanderbilt 2007
  • 13 points:  Alabama 1996, Auburn 1997
  • 10 points:  Arkansas 1995
  • 9 points:  Kentucky 2004

Meanwhile, Butch’s Vols have come back from two possessions behind to win six times in just the last three years:

  • 21 points:  Georgia 2015, Florida 2016
  • 17 points:  Georgia 2016
  • 14 points:  South Carolina 2014, Virginia Tech 2016
  • 10 points:  Appalachian State 2016

Quality of opponent is also interesting here:  40% of Fulmer’s comeback list is Kentucky or Vanderbilt, while two-thirds of Butch’s came against teams who were ranked at the time or finished the year that way.

Say what you will about Butch Jones (or Josh Dobbs, the quarterback of every one of those comebacks). The bigger point?  Pace of play has significantly changed how we watch college football.

Getting down 14 points used to create panic; Fulmer’s Vols only came back from such a deficit six times in 17 years. But today, it’s not a big deal:  Butch’s Vols have come back from down 14 points five times in the last 31 games. 

Getting up by a similar margin is also no sure thing anymore. Fulmer’s Vols only blew two leads of 12+ points ever, and only one if you remove games started by Todd Helton at quarterback. When Tennessee got up that much, the Vols were a lock (in part because of a far greater talent advantage). But the 2015 Vols blew 12+ point leads against three consecutive FBS foes.

Pace of play has increased the number of total plays per game, which means the opportunity to blow a lead or come back from a hole is greater now than it was in Fulmer’s day. More plays also means more opportunity for injury, which as we know can create all kinds of havoc in both an individual’s playing career and a season’s narrative.

Check out the total number of snaps Tennessee’s defense has faced in the last nine years:

Season Opponent Plays Per Game
2008 776 64.7
2009 852 65.5
2010 913 70.2
2011 752 62.7
2012 923 76.9
2013 827 68.9
2014 892 68.6
2015 904 69.5
2016 1000 76.9

Last year the Vols were one of only nine defenses to face 1,000 plays while playing only 13 games. The 2016 defense clearly had problems that went beyond injuries, depth, and fatigue. But no one should pretend this kind of workload wasn’t a significant factor.

Numbers like these are also why using yards/points per game is so misleading. Missouri gained 740 yards on the Vols, but did so in 110 plays. In yards per play it was only the fourth worst performance of the season for the Tennessee defense. Team 120’s season total in yards per play allowed (5.84) was better than not just Sal Sunseri’s 2012 debacle (6.13), but also Butch’s first year in 2013 (6.07).

These numbers suggest Tennessee is going to blow some leads this fall. They also suggest no one should panic if Tennessee falls behind by two scores. I’m sure there are things for Butch to consider in how he prepares his team and keeps them locked in during games. But overall I think this has less to do with Butch Jones and more to do with the current reality of the game. And for coaches, players, and fans alike, it means a higher percentage of meaningful snaps.

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Greg Emerson Gives Tennessee the Jewel of its Recruiting Class

When the news broke on Sunday that elite Tennessee defensive end target Greg Emerson suffered a leg injury at “The Opening” recruiting showcase camp, Volunteers fans and commitments everywhere showered the 4-star prospect with love.

The news improved significantly on Monday when it became clear the Jackson, Tennessee, star would be running again after just 4-6 weeks on the shelf.

Then, 24 hours later, the headlines concerning Emerson became front-page news for UT fans when perhaps the top target in the 2018 Vols recruiting class made his commitment to Tennessee official on the NFL Network with a surprise announcement.

“I said I was going to do it in December, but I guess I’ll go ahead and let everybody know. For the next four years, I’ll probably be furthering my education at the University of Knoxville. Go Big Orange.”

It’s all good that he left out the “Tennessee” part right now. Quite honestly, nobody who cares anything about Vols football cares that a nervous kid mixed up the name. The bottom line is Emerson is an elite prospect who has seemingly favored UT for a long time and will play his college days on Rocky Top. That’s massive news for head coach Butch Jones, Emerson’s top recruiter Walt Wells and his position coach, Brady Hoke, who deserves a big assist in the commitment.

Emerson is the nation’s No. 26-ranked player overall in the 247Sports recruiting rankings and the third-ranked defensive tackle. In the composite ratings, he’s the No. 76 player and fifth-ranked defensive tackle. He is currently 6’3″, but he wants to stay on the outside and play defensive end in college, and because he’s reportedly down to 260 pounds (from 296), his weight and his athleticism may allow him to do just that. Last year, there were 32 5-stars on 247Sports, so with a strong senior season, there’s no reason to believe he can’t finish there.

247Sports analyst Steve Wiltfong believes the Vols are getting one of the most athletic defensive linemen in the nation, which is saying something at his size.

Emerson’s size may sound like an interior lineman, and he may very well be, but Emerson’s burst is elite. At the very least, he’ll be a guy who can be a versatile cog anywhere up front the way Jonathan Kongbo projects to be and much the way a guy like Malik Jackson was able to do in the past. Emerson has that type of talent, and it’s the reason why he’s one of the most sought-after players in the country.

Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Florida, Florida State and basically everybody else wanted him to commit to them. Emerson even admitted early in the process he grew up an Alabama fan. But Emerson has been feeling the Vols for a while. Last year, when UT won a hotly contested recruiting battle for the services of 5-star offensive lineman Trey Smith of Jackson, Emerson was present at his announcement, and he was visibly excited for Smith committing to Tennessee.

Over the past few months, Emerson visited Knoxville multiple times. He developed a strong bond with Jones, Wells and Hoke, and, beyond that, he also built a rapport with two other big-time linemen from the Volunteer State in Brant Lawless and D’Andre Litaker. Both of those kids verbally committed to Tennessee over the past few months, and it became evident that it would be a major upset if Emerson went anywhere else.

On Monday, he made his verbal commitment official.

The Vols continue to load up in the Volunteer State. Pretty much, the only three players they wanted who haven’t committed are running back Master Teague (Ohio State), offensive lineman Max Wray (Ohio State) and Jordan Davis (Alabama). The Vols quickly moved on at running back and on the O-line, and they’re still heavily recruiting Davis, but it appears he’s solid to the Crimson Tide at the moment.

Davis visited at “Orange Carpet Day” a couple of weeks ago, as did Emerson, who actually silently committed to Tennessee during that visit, according to VolQuest’s Jesse Simonton and Austin Price, who did a commitment video with the big lineman during that weekend.

With Emerson’s commitment, it gives Tennessee a bevy of Volunteer State studs. Five-star offensive lineman Cade Mays from Knoxville Catholic leads the pack with Emerson not far behind him in the rankings. Alontae Taylor is also at “The Opening” recruiting showcase camp in Nike’s world headquarters in Beaverton, Oregon. The Manchester, Tennessee, athlete gives UT another marquee player from close to home. Lawless and Litaker have all the trappings to be next-level studs, and Chattanooga safety Brendon Harris looks like he could be a multi-year starter, too. Farragut tight end Jacob Warren and Knoxville (Gibbs) center Ollie Lane round out the players from within state borders in UT’s haul.

The Vols have a few other in-state targets they’d love to land, but topping that list is offensive lineman Jerome Carvin.

If UT can get him, that will mean perhaps the best instate recruiting class in the history of Vols football. It will mean the Vols addressed major needs in both trenches without even having to venture out-of-state. When you’re able to take care of business at home, it can be the beginning of a fantastic class.

Throw in two good-looking running backs and a pair of stellar quarterbacks, and this class is off to as good a start as any nationally.

This UT recruiting machine has come a long way in the past year when you take into consideration that nearly a year ago, the Vols were receiving a crucial blow when Oak Ridge wide receiver was choosing Clemson over his hometown team. Toss in Jacob Phillips and JaCoby Stevens choosing LSU, and it was a forgettable recruiting class for the Vols in their own state.

This year, the class is elite. And it’s getting there because all the big boys in the Volunteer State are staying home to be part of the #Dom1n8 class that is shaping up to be dominant, at least on paper. It’s a class that is loaded. Emerson makes it much more so.

With the changes he made on the coaching staff, they’re paying major dividends with prospects. Tennessee is currently ranked fourth nationally in recruiting and second in the SEC. The Vols have put together a strong group of 16 kids in a class that should swell to 25-26.

Regardless of what big fish Jones may land between now and National Signing Day, Emerson is going to be among the top two or three in the group. He’s exactly the kind of player who can be a playmaker and an immediate-impact prospect in Knoxville.

Gameday Today: Well-wishes for Emerson, listening to Dad, and asking unanswerable questions

Gameday Today wishes Greg Emerson a speedy recovery, ignores Mom and listens to Dad, and asks unanswerable questions. This and more in today’s Vols link roundup.

Recruiting

As we posted last night, defensive tackle target Greg Emerson suffered an injury at The Opening Finals. Initial reports were gloomy, but later reports cited a source as saying Emerson would be out only 4-6 weeks. Now we have it from the horse’s mouth:

https://twitter.com/sneakerhad_greg/status/881672962071420928

Good news. GoVols247 has a compilation of well-wishes from Tennessee guys and others.

Football

“Their friends and family haven’t seen them for a while, so then they go home and they say, ‘holy smokes, what have you been doing,’” Gullickson said. “But I tell them that your mom is always going to say you look good, but if your dad or your uncle says you look good, you are probably doing it right.”

All moms are liars. 🙂

Hoops

  • Guard Chris Darrington is apparently really, really fast. Also, Rick Barnes says that everybody has gotten better. I know that’s what you want and expect and isn’t really news, but his emphasis is on “everybody,” which could very well be news. Also, hoops commit Davonte Gaines just received a 4-star rating from 247Sports.
  • Tennessee basketball hired Aubin Goporo as Director of Player Development.

VFLs

Loved this quote from VFL Jalen Reeves-Maybin about Butch Jones being on the hot seat this fall:

“It’s the SEC, and everybody is on the hot seat. There might be two or three guys in the SEC who are not on the hot seat, and the rest of them are. At the end of the day, you’ve just got to win. If you meet the expectations in five straight games and then don’t in one, then you’re on the hot seat. Everybody is on it.”

Other Vols news

Tennessee golfer Lorenzo Scalise finished second after 72 holes of stroke play and a five-hole playoff in the 2017 European Amateur Championship.

Report: Defensive lineman target Greg Emerson injured at The Opening, but only out 4-6 weeks

Tennessee defensive lineman target Greg Emerson reportedly went down with a lower leg injury during one-on-one drills at The Opening Finals. It appeared to be quite serious at first, as Emerson was carted off the field by EMTs. This tweet from SB Nation Recruiting seemed to corroborate the severity of the injury:

https://twitter.com/SBNRecruiting/status/881589342501720064

However, a subsequent tweet from Barton Simmons reports that a source close to Emerson says that he will need surgery for a dislocated ankle/fractured fibula but could be back sooner rather than later:

This is great news for Emerson, who’s a highly-touted recruit sought after by several programs. Tennessee does appear to be the current leader for his services, and he is probably their top remaining target as they try to firm up a stellar defensive line class full of in-state kids. Often you’ll hear that a recruit appreciates a school sticking with him through an injury that scares off other teams, so this is an opportunity for Tennessee to show Emerson that they mean what they say when they tell him how important he is to them.

Regardless of how his recruitment turns out, best of luck to Emerson in his rehab.

Do You Smell What Walt Wells is Cooking?

There’s no wonder players everywhere love Tennessee offensive line coach Walt Wells. If he winds up coaching half as well as he’s recruiting, the new Volunteers assistant will wind up being a home-run hire for coach Butch Jones.

Upon getting hired by the Vols to be the full-time offensive line coach, Wells referred to Tennessee as his “dream job.” So far, it’s been a dream fit.

How many times have you heard over the past few years of Jones’ tenure that the Vols needed another “ace” recruiter. It’s hard to believe there’s been one just down the hall as an offensive quality control assistant. After last year, South Carolina head coach Will Muschamp came calling, trying to get Wells to be the Gamecocks’ new offensive line coach. But Wells stayed. Perhaps he already knew what was going to happen as UT parted ways with O-line coach Don Mahoney and promoted Wells to a full-time gig.

It’s already paid massive recruiting dividends on the recruiting trail, and it looks like it could be one of the best hires of an offseason full of assistant flipping.

“It’s always been a dream of mine to be here and I know it’s more than a dream, it’s reality now and I know what the reality is – we need results,” Wells told the media in his first interview as UT’s O-line coach. “That’s my goal just as much as anybody in this building.”

While those on-field results must wait, the work in the living rooms is paying off for Wells and Tennessee already.

Currently, Wells ranks eighth out of all assistants in 247Sports’ recruiter rankings, credited with five commitments. Five-star Knoxville Catholic commit Cade Mays, instate stud safety Brendan Harris and defensive tackle D’Andre Litaker lead the pack with Farragut tight end Jacob Warren and 3-star Knoxville (Gibbs) offensive lineman Ollie Lane credited to him, as well.

Wells already has landed 2019 commitments from Chattanooga athlete Cameron Wynn and midstate prospect Adonis Otey.

He’s also the lead recruiter on stud defensive lineman Greg Emerson of Jackson, Tennessee, who UT is right in the thick of, as well as Memphis top offensive tackle target Jerome Carvin, elite JUCO defensive lineman Dorian Gerald (who has UT and South Carolina at the top of his list), IMG Academy offensive lineman Reuben Unije, Virginia tight end James Mitchell and others. Tackle prospects Tanner Antonetti and massive IMG Academy standout Daniel Faalele are also being targeted by Wells.

The Vols are throwing him at some of their top targets, and he’s helping build an exceptional recruiting class. While Brady Hoke gets credit for Nashville defensive tackle Brant Lawless, Wells at least provided an assist there, too.

With all the talent instate this year and next, it was vital for the Vols to win their share of battles in the Volunteer State. Any time you can keep home 8-12 players who are being recruited by the rest of the SEC, it gives you the opportunity to build a firm foundation for a top-10 class that can compete to win the SEC East, if not the league. That was a major failure a season ago as top talent like receiver Tee Higgins, linebacker Jacob Phillips and defensive back JaCoby Stevens went elsewhere.

While linebackers coach Tommy Thigpen has won a lot of recruiting battles for UT, his star was fading in the state, especially in the I-24 corridor between Mufreesboro and Nashville that has become fertile recruiting ground the past few years.

Enter Wells.

The Belmont graduate and Tennessee native has long-time ties in the Midstate. He’s a proud Tennessean, and he plays up the state pride angle very well. His Twitter profile even has a #MidStateMade hash tag right there for the world to see. He has firm roots in relationships with coaches and camps within Nashville and beyond. People know Wells, and Wells knows people. More importantly, people like Wells.

Coaches like Wells. Parents like Wells. And, most important, kids like Wells.

It’s easy to see why. He’s also one of the most fun follows on all of Tennessee Twitter, quickly becoming known for his Pro Wrasslin’-themed tweets that either herald a coming commitment or celebrating one once it’s official. No, coaches can’t comment specifically on players, but there’s nothing cryptic about the references Wells flings out every time the Vols add one to their “Dom1n8” class.

Like this tweet in response to last weekend’s duo of running back commitments Lyn-J Dixon and Anthony Grant where he references the great Sting during his NWO days.

https://twitter.com/UTWWells/status/878713411357507584

And this one in reference to the same duo, throwing a little former UGA player Bill Goldberg out there with a Georgia reference.

https://twitter.com/UTWWells/status/879090506785054720

You gotta love that, right?

For a coaching staff (and head coach) who embraces social media and getting a positive message out there, Wells is a perfect fit. Now, about that coaching, he’s got to do a much better job than his predecessor.

Mahoney was an assistant UT’s offensive linemen loved, but the on-field results were always underachieving. He inherited a talented bunch in his first season with Ja’Wuan James, Zach Fulton, Tiny Richardson and James Stone, but UT’s line didn’t live up to the expectations, struggling in a scheme fit as the Vols relied on zone-blocking concepts when they were built primarily for man blocking.

The next year in 2014 was an absolute disaster as graduation and early departures of all those aforementioned players and Derek Dooley’s recruiting gaffes led to an awful season up front. The failure of JUCO offensive tackle Dontavius Blair didn’t help matters, either. Then in ’15, UT made a big leap up front in what was Mahoney’s best coaching job. The unit plummeted a year ago, however, and it became evident Tennessee needed to go in a different direction.

Now, Wells gets the opportunity to see if his infectious personality and recruiting chops can materialize with some strong Xs and Os. If he winds up being a great coach, the Vols’ offensive worries for the upcoming season with a possible dropback passer in Quinten Dormady under center and some new weapons for a new coordinator Larry Scott may not be such a big deal after all.

A lot is riding on Wells and UT’s offensive line, which returns a slew of players who have a great blend of youth, talent and experience. It’s far from a barren cupboard, so Wells doesn’t have any excuses. Tennessee fans have to hope he coaches as well as he convinces kids to commit.

If he does, Tennessee’s trenches will be in good hands for years to come.

Gameday Today: New adventures with old friends, team chemistry, and over-aggressive facial hair

Gameday Today jumps off a cliff with old friends, fans the flames of team chemistry, and marvels at Spencer Hall’s facial hair. This and more in today’s Vols link roundup.

Sports writing meta

I just got back to East Tennessee from five days in San Francisco and the accursed Pacific Time Zone. It was the second time this year I’ve been to the PST, and I’m telling you, there is something quite unnatural about concluding your work day at the same time everyone back home is going to sleep.

Anyway, because I was without my favorite trusty computer and workspace and instead using a laptop and an unreliable personal hotspot, I missed a proper re-introduction of Will Shelton to the new digs a few days ago. So let me say it now — I could not be happier to be writing once again with both Will and Brad, and I am so incredibly grateful for their trust as we once more unto the breach together.

You might call it providential timing, too, as FoxSports just relieved most of its sportswriting staff of their jobs in order to feed a “growing appetite for video.” There’s a lot to digest on the topic of online sports writing, and you should start with Clay Travis’ take, which is dead on and articulates well much of the reason we recently made the jump to Gameday on Rocky Top after over a decade at SB Nation’s Rocky Top Talk. There’s much more to it than economics, though, and having the freedom to choose which appetites to nourish is one of the things that drives us here at GRT. And as I already said, I could not be happier to be working alongside Will and Brad again, pressing toward the same objectives.

Will’s already off to the start you’d expect from Will, using Bane and Batman to conjure new insights about this season and last, as well as hitching his wagon to a FiveThirtyEight scheduling system that uses “power-pairing” to create something that looks to me like a conference playoff. I might like that even better than my own idea of keeping everything the same but using only division results to determine division champions.

Football

  • Two public messages to another old friend, Spencer Hall: (1) YOUR CHEST HAIR IS ATTACKING YOUR FACE, and (2) STOP LAUGHING AT US WITH PAUL FINEBAUM. (Spencer thinks that Tennessee having to play Georgia Tech’s triple option in the first game of the season is hilarious:)

Recruiting

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Hoops

Forward Grant Williams will be venturing out onto the perimeter more this season in an attempt to improve his versatility, which will in turn improve the versatility of the team.

VFLs

Reggie Wayne says that Peyton Manning used to change the play at the line of scrimmage “85 to 90 percent of the time.” I looked this up for us non-math majors, and “85 to 90 percent” means “a lot.”

Other Vols news

  • The Lady Vols SEC schedule has been set for the upcoming season. The team will face Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Texas A&M in home-and-home series this season. The SEC schedule also includes home games against Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State, and road games at Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, and Missouri.
  • UTSports.com has a beautiful behind-the-scenes feature with track phenom Christian Coleman.
  • Tennessee is mourning the loss of Dr. Earl C. Hudson, who recently passed away at the age of 91. He and his wife, Martha, have owned and trained UT’s Smokeys since 1994. Condolences to the family.

 

SEC Schedule Proposal with FiveThirtyEight’s Model

Of the many interesting scheduling ideas floating around this off-season (including Joel’s here a few days ago), my favorite is from back in January: Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight’s Make College Football Great Again. Their post uses the Big Ten, in part an effort to help prevent another Penn State or Ohio State playoff debate. We’re simply applying it here to the SEC. In terms of what is the most fair and the most fun, this is the best model I’ve seen.

No divisions, no conference championship game, nine regular season conference games.

First, ditching conference championship games frees up an additional week to be used on playoff expansion or an extra bye week.

If you’re going to go this route, you have to address the possibility of ties at the top of the standings. Models that include a handful of annual rivals and a rotation of other opponents – including ones that do it well like this one from SB Nation – either keep the conference championship game as a potential rematch, or shrug their shoulders at the notion of a tie.

In case you were born before divisions or overtime, ties are awful. No one is happy because literally no one wins.

I’m for anything that makes every single game matter as much as possible, and in this sense I don’t like playing conference championship games in non-divisional formats because of a higher probability of rematches. Divisional formats with annual rivalries greatly reduce the possibility of rematches: in 25 years the SEC has never had an annual rivalry (Tennessee-Alabama, Florida-LSU, Georgia-Auburn) play an encore in Atlanta.

But take out divisions? If you just sent the two best conference records to Atlanta, Tennessee and Florida would have run it back in 1993, 1995, 1996, 1998, and the very next week in 2001. This absolutely would have diminished the value of the regular season meeting.

Schedules need a way to preserve the rivalries that matter most, but also maximize the value of every game. And they need to be able to produce a champion that is rewarded in ways Penn State was not. Head-to-head needs to matter more, not less.

This is why I love FiveThirtyEight’s model:

Imagine a world in which historical rivals always play each other every year and yet, by almighty Rockne, the best teams in a conference always play one another, too. Imagine a world with no divisions.

Not only have I imagined such a world, my friends, but I have seen one. I have seen it in the hallways of a high-school debate tournament.

The solution that debate tournaments devised is something called power-pairing. Power-pairing just means that teams with the same record are paired off against each other, so that a team that starts off the tournament 2-0 will face off against another 2-0 team, for instance. It usually works by drawing the first two rounds of a tournament at random,1 and after that, everything is power-paired.

Three annual rivalries, two predetermined opponents, four flexed/power-paired match-ups

Here are the annual rivalries I went with:

  • Alabama:  Auburn, LSU, Tennessee
  • Arkansas:  LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M
  • Auburn:  Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi State
  • Florida: Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee
  • Georgia:  Auburn, Florida, South Carolina
  • Kentucky: Mississippi State, Missouri, Vanderbilt
  • LSU:  Alabama, Arkansas, Ole Miss
  • Ole Miss:  LSU, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
  • Mississippi State:  Auburn, Kentucky, Ole Miss
  • Missouri:  Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas A&M
  • South Carolina:  Florida, Georgia, Vanderbilt
  • Tennessee:  Alabama, Florida, Vanderbilt
  • Texas A&M:  Arkansas, Ole Miss, Missouri
  • Vanderbilt: Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee

In FiveThirtyEight’s model, teams play their rivals in weeks 2, 4, and 7 of league play. Week 7 highlights the biggest rivalries as best we’re able. There’s a logistical point here for the SEC: this model works more smoothly for the Big Ten because they typically don’t start conference play until week four or five. So there’s a whole piece here about moving most or all non-conference games to early September that would have to be worked out, along with bye weeks.

In weeks 1 and 3 of league play, teams would face a predetermined opponent. FiveThirtyEight’s model uses the previous season’s standings to determine these foes:  Week 1 would feature teams from the top of the conference against teams from the bottom, Week 3 would feature best against best and worst against worst.

Opponents in weeks 5, 6, 8, and 9 of league play would be determined as the season played itself out. Weeks 5 and 6 would be decided after Week 4; Weeks 8 and 9 decided after Week 7, with both pairs of match-ups featuring one home and one away game. In each case, the league office would make the effort to power-pair teams based on their current records, creating the best available match-ups among teams yet to face each other. FiveThirtyEight’s piece had an algorithm help select these match-ups.

How would this look for the SEC? Here’s a sample season we played out (projected losses in red):

Let’s take Tennessee as an example. After four weeks the Vols are 3-1, and are paired with 4-0 Texas A&M and 2-2 LSU in Weeks 5 and 6. After seven weeks the Vols are 5-2, and are paired with 4-3 Ole Miss and 4-3 Auburn in the last two weeks of the season.

At the end of the year the Vols didn’t play Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi State, or Missouri. None of those teams finished above .500. Look at how many meaningful games everyone is playing:  Alabama, who wins the league at 8-1, played every team finishing 6-3 or better and three of the four teams finishing 5-4. South Carolina, who tied for last at 2-7, did not face Alabama or 7-2 Texas A&M.

If two teams tie at the top, power-pairing virtually assures they played each other during the regular season, thus head-to-head decides it. If three teams tie and their head-to-head results cancel out, power-pairing virtually assures you can find a next best common opponent to break the tie.

This would require some flexibility at all levels, especially with four unknown games to schedule on short notice. But of all the models I’ve seen, this one is the best at producing a worthy champion without divisions or rematches while sustaining key rivalries. It creates a sense of anticipation and opportunity as the season goes along with good teams continuing to face each other; in the above case the title is decided in the final week of the season when Alabama plays Texas A&M. It increases the value of every win: going 9-3 may not be cause for celebration right now, but against a schedule like this it becomes much more of an accomplishment (and hopefully creates healthier expectations along with more meaningful games). It also protects schools at the bottom of the league in any given year, helping struggling teams stay alive for bowl eligibility longer with more winnable games down the stretch. And, most importantly, it pushes opinion out of the equation and maximizes head-to-head results.

Tennessee Vols Recruiting: Random Thoughts

A half dozen random recruiting thoughts as it’s not even July, and the 2018 class is currently ranked #5 in the country with 15 commitments:

Still no Emerson

What’s even more impressive about the current ranking of the class is that it doesn’t yet include Vols lock and borderline 5-star DL Greg Emerson, who will be the crown jewel of this class as his fellow Jackson area-native Trey Smith was in 2017.

Defensive Ends

As noted over the weekend (and in the case of Chatman, presciently), the DE board is suddenly very crowded with blue chippers, another promising development as UT looks to finish this class out.  With Chatman in the fold and Emerson a matter of when and not if, look for the Vols to really zero in on JUCO stud Dorian Gerald and Azeez Ojulari while continuing to slowly chip away with Jordan Davis.  Other nice prospects are out there, and even over the weekend, 4-star DE Malcolm Lamer from FL named the Vols in his Top 5, just adding to the board.  But IMO it’s those three that will be the main focus going forward (again, presuming Emerson is a Vol already).

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Tight Ends

One position I continue to think is really interesting is TE.  While the Vols have a really good prospect already in the fold in local stud Jacob Warren, the thought is that they want to pair him up with another.  The two TEs the staff has focused on have been Tommy Tremble from GA and James Mitchell from VA.  And while UT is arguably in the Top 2 for both, it would be a stretch to say that they lead for either.  With Tremble, the thought continues to be that his interest in academics could lead him away from a big time SEC program like Tennessee or UGA (his father’s alma mater) and instead to a place like Notre Dame (his presumed leader right now), Duke, or even an Ivy. With Mitchell, even though he’s made a couple of visits to Rocky Top many think ultimately he will be tough to pull away from home state Virginia Tech.  And now schools like OSU are sniffing around, potentially complicating matters should he decide he would be willing to leave home.  All the while, other top flight TEs are either falling off the board or simply moving on as they are recruited harder by other schools.  So the question becomes, if you can’t land one of the remaining big 2, do you reach and take another TE in this class, or do you instead use that spot at another position?  It’s not an easy question to answer, as headed into 2018 you’ll only have 5 TEs on the roster, counting Warren, and to-date only one (walk-on Eli Wolf) has actually taken snaps.  Now a counter to that might be that none of the remaining class of 2018 TEs would move the needle in the 2018 season anyway as they would be just as inexperienced.  My take: Don’t reach, and then make sure you’re using the 2017 season to get guys like Eli Wolf and Austin Pope some real reps and likely 2017 redshirts James Brown/Latrell Bumphus the kind of physical development needed to be ready in 2018.  It’s not an ideal situation, but at this point if the Vols can’t land either Tremble or Mitchell I think I would rather see that spot used on another DL or OL.

Offensive Line

Speaking of…do the Vols take a 4th OL if they land Carvin?  Might depend on numbers at other positions, among other variables.  Interestingly, Midstate product and longtime Vols fan Tanner Antonutti is dying to get the green light to commit to his dream school and seemingly was ok waiting.  However, an offer from LSU over the weekend may have changed the calculus for Walt Wells and Co.  Does the offer from Red Stick force UT’s hand here, or is Antonutti still willing to wait?  It’s a fascinating question.  He’s an intriguing prospect – more of a Marcus Tatum/Nathan Niehaus type body in the sense that he’s got a great frame and athleticism but doesn’t have the weight yet.  Once again it’s a zero sum game when it comes to numbers at different positions, so if you take a 4th OL someone else is losing a spot.  It’s sounding more and more like Carvin is going to pull the trigger for the Vols sooner rather than later, so we’ll know more on that 4th spot shortly.

Linebackers

LB recruiting continues to be confounding, and there are just so many layers to it.  On the one hand, at this point the 4-2-5 is basically our Base package, so you just don’t need as many LBs as you used to.  Also, I think the Vols ended up with a really nice LB class in 2017: Ignot is a blue-chipper; Reid and Page look to have been steals after Reid looked really good this spring as an early enrollee and Page put on a bunch of muscle to go with his speed and high school production; and to cap it off, I’m firmly of the opinion that Maleik Gray is a future menace as a hybrid LB/NB chess piece that Shoop moves all over the place in the box, ala  Jabril Peppers at Michigan.  But on the other hand, it does seem strange that we haven’t found ourselves truly battling for bonafide stud LBs for a while now.  Yes, guys like Kirkland and Bituli were well-regarded and have very bright futures, but compare LB recruiting to, say DL or OL recruiting and it’s hard to say we’re signing the same caliber of prospect, at least on paper.  And that appears to be the case in the 2018 class, as the board is both relatively small and also devoid of big timers.  Don’t get me wrong, Cam Jones is likely to take a LB spot in this class, and I think that he has the potential to be a really, really good LB.  He’s got nice size, speed, and athleticism.  I don’t think we take more than one more though, and while I think guys like Matthew Flint and Cam McGrone and Fa’najae Gotay are solid prospects, the guy I would go all in on is Xavier Peters.  Yes, there are academic and potentially character concerns (though that’s just hearsay and I think it has to do with his fiery disposition).  But he looks like a potentially elite LB.  The kind that we don’t have on the roster right now with the possible exception of Daniel Bituli.  And with his home state Buckeyes being full at LB there is an opportunity for someone else to swoop in and snatch a big timer – the kind of kid who normally we’d have no shot at as he’d be an OSU lock.  The team that takes advantage of that should be the Vols.  Peters was here in the spring and loved it, but unfortunately didn’t come to Orange Carpet Day despite some thought that he would make it in.  So they’ll need to get him back to campus to remind him how much better it is than, say, Kentucky, who appears to have a decent shot at him right now.  Bottom line: Peters should be Thigpen’s focus, because he’s the kind of elite LB we don’t have on the team right now and he’s there for the taking.

Richard Jibunor

A final thought on LB recruiting this cycle: Richard Jibunor is one of my favorite players in this class.  He’s an athletic freak who could play LB or DE and loves the Vols.  Unfortunately, he also loves Auburn, and the Tigers are telling him he can play his preferred position of LB while the Vols are recruiting him as a DE.  Now, it’s a testament to how much he likes Tennessee that we are neck and neck with Auburn despite that.  But, especially given the dearth of big time LB prospects not only on the 2018 board but also on campus, I don’t see why UT doesn’t simply recruit Jibunor as a LB, or at least tell him he can play both or start at LB and see what happens.  That would not only eliminate Auburn’s advantage but also give UT another shot at a stud LB who, worst case, gets too big for the position and becomes a terror off the edge at Weakside DE.

Butch Jones, Bane, and the Bye Week

When I was 11, Superman died. It had the intended effect: me and thousands of others got invested in comic books thanks to Doomsday, one mammoth event leading to several others over the next few years.

The following summer, Batman got in on the action with the 18-month arc Knightfall. The turning point in this series came when Bruce Wayne faced a new villain for the first time. Kids today know Bane as a fun voice to impersonate. Eleven-year-old me was introduced to him when he broke Batman’s back in the summer of 1993.

The fight was reproduced in The Dark Knight Rises on the big screen in 2012, but the buildup in the comics was completely different. Knightfall starts when Bane busts all of Batman’s biggest enemies out of Arkham Asylum, then waits for Bruce to exhaust himself catching each of them before he faces him. And unlike Superman, who gave as good as he got against Doomsday, when Batman faces Bane it’s even worse than the movie:  the entire issue is devoted to Bane beating Batman within an inch of his life in his own home. Child Will had nightmares after reading it.

I thought about this last fall as Alabama rolled through Knoxville, the only punches a depleted Vol squad landed coming thanks to Derek Barnett, who might actually be Batman for all I know. It wasn’t just the beat down, it was the buildup:  Tennessee had gone through Florida, Georgia, and Texas A&M in succession before facing the top-ranked Tide. You knew that run was going to be trouble the minute the schedule was announced. But it was the how of it all that proved to be so exhausting.

What happened in the first half of last season was simultaneously so exciting and so draining, I kept thinking I wouldn’t have time to fully enjoy it until after the season was over. The Florida game is the most exhausted I’ve ever been walking out of Neyland, was swiftly followed by the single most exhilarating play in school history, then immediately followed by a five-hour, double overtime, 17-injury marathon at Texas A&M. Then Bama. And that’s just how exhausting it was for fans, let alone what it did to the coaching staff and an ever-thinning roster.

There are no excuses, as Butch Jones would probably admit; the second half of the season ultimately made the first half something you couldn’t fully enjoy anymore. But looking ahead with 10 weeks to go until kickoff, one thing is certain:  thank God we don’t have to do it that way again.

The toughest stretch of the 2017 season is your choice of South Carolina, at Alabama, at Kentucky, or at Missouri, LSU, Vanderbilt. Either one is a tough SEC West draw book-ended by two of four from the traditional bottom half of the SEC East. Team 121 probably won’t be good enough to take anyone for granted and should learn from Team 120’s November mistakes in that regard. But no matter who does or doesn’t get hot in the league this year, there is no way Tennessee will have to face anything like those four weeks from last fall.

The first five weeks put Indiana State, 2-10 UMass, and the bye week evenly spaced between Georgia Tech, Florida, and Georgia. If the East goes as it usually does, the Vols won’t have to face any of their five most difficult foes on consecutive Saturdays.

How ridiculous was last fall? A trip through the media guide shows it was the only time in school history the Vols have faced ranked foes on four consecutive Saturdays. (EDIT: Upon further research, I put the bye week in the wrong place in 2013, which means Tennessee faced ranked teams on four consecutive Saturdays that year as well. So it’s only happened twice in school history, both times to Butch Jones.) Someone may have made this point as it was happening last year, but I know myself and many others were too caught up in everything that transpired in those four weeks to notice. 

The most difficult stretches in modern program history may have featured higher ranked teams than #19 Florida, #25 Georgia, #8 Texas A&M, and #1 Alabama. But none of them included this kind of gauntlet on four consecutive Saturdays:

  • 1991:  Tennessee faced five ranked teams in a row (#21 UCLA, #23 Mississippi State, #13 Auburn, #10 Florida, #14 Alabama) but had a bye week after the first three and none were ranked higher than 10th. The Vols went 3-2 in this stretch, then two weeks later beat #5 Notre Dame in The Miracle at South Bend.
  • 1994:  Four of Tennessee’s first five opponents were ranked (#14 UCLA, #23 Georgia, #1 Florida, #17 Washington State) with a trip to Starkville coming between the Gators and Cougars. An inopportune time for your starting quarterback to get hurt on the first drive of the season, and a huge ask for a baseball player and a young freshman filling in. They turned out alright.
  • 2002:  Already dealing with season-changing injuries, the ’02 Vols played a six overtime game with Arkansas, then faced #6 Georgia, a bye week, #19 Alabama, South Carolina, and #1 Miami. 
  • 2005:  A common theme in another disappointing year, Tennessee faced five Top 10 teams in eight weeks (#6 Florida, #4 LSU, #5 Georgia, #5 Alabama, #8 Notre Dame).
  • 2007:  Only one of these teams was ranked, but in terms of pressure I’d put Tennessee’s march to Atlanta on the list:  the ’07 Vols had to win out to win the East against the Heisman runner-up from Arkansas, Vanderbilt in the biggest fourth quarter comeback in Neyland history, and at Kentucky in four overtimes. They then faced #5 LSU in Atlanta, the eventual BCS Champions.
  • 2011:  On four consecutive Saturdays the Vols faced unranked Georgia (where Tyler Bray broke his thumb), #1 LSU, #2 Alabama, and #14 South Carolina. Two weeks later Arkansas would become the third season-ending Top 5 team Dooley’s Vols faced. The only team on this list that failed to win at least one of these games.
  • 2013: Tennessee played five Top 11 teams plus a bye week on six consecutive Saturdays (#6 Georgia, #11 South Carolina, #1 Alabama, #10 Missouri, #7 Auburn), the last two starting true freshman Josh Dobbs at quarterback. Whenever someone casts Butch Jones’ overall record at Tennessee in a negative light, remember this ridiculous run in his very first year.

Tennessee plays in the best conference in college football and has always scheduled aggressively. But it has never had to face four Saturdays like it did last fall, both on paper and in what those games eventually turned in to. 

Bane eventually goes down to a new Batman, fighting with new weapons and new tactics. Team 121 will have to find new ways to win this fall without Barnett and Dobbs and many other old names to rely on. But the task itself will not be as exhausting on so many Saturdays in a row. If nothing else, 2017 should have a better rhythm. Hopefully it leads to a year we can all enjoy more fully.

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Tennessee Recruiting: Vols Complete Weekend Peach State Trifecta With Jamarcus Chatman Commitment

Last year, “Orange Carpet Day” produced eight commitments on that Saturday. This year, the annual event waited a week before yielding pledges for the Vols.

Rome (Ga.) defensive tackle Jamarcus Chatman made it three commitments for UT from the state of Georgia in two days on Sunday night, officially pulling the trigger with a Twitter pledge after a week-long social media love affair with Tennessee following last weekend’s visit.

https://twitter.com/ChatmanJamarcus/status/879119722637348864

Shortly after he left Knoxville, he decommitted from LSU, where he’d been bound to coach Ed Orgeron. Basically everything on his Twitter account since then has been regarding UT. On Sunday night, he gave Tennessee some big-time news with his decision. The 3-star defensive lineman doesn’t have the offer sheet of a normal 3-star player.

He chose Tennessee over LSU, Clemson, Miami, Florida, Florida State, Michigan, Michigan State, Ole Miss, Oregon, Penn State, South Carolina, Southern Cal and others. Maybe if Georgia (where his high school teammate and buddy Adam Anderson is entertaining along with LSU where he’s currently committed) were to offer Chatman, things could get interesting.

But he is definitely sold on the Vols, where he has family ties. His family wants him in orange, and his sister-in-law actually went to UT and is a huge Tennessee fan, and his brother is a Tennessee fan, too. According to 247Sports, he’s the nation’s No. 30 defensive tackle, but a lot of teams love the explosion and size of the 6’3″, 267-pound lineman.

Plus, it never hurts to have a kid say something like this that Chatman said in an interview with GoVols247’s Ryan Callahan:

“When I decommitted from LSU, that’s where I knew I wanted to go,” said Chatman, who’s ranked the No. 397 overall prospect and No. 30 defensive tackle in the 247Sports Composite for the 2018 class.

“After visiting, that place is just amazing. … I was going to wait (to decide). But I was thinking, ‘Why wait when I know where I’m going to go?’”

The Vols would probably love to get in on Anderson, but they don’t appear to be a serious option there right now. As for Chatman, he’s a big-time get for Tennessee, considering his athleticism on the interior and the frame to hold a lot more weight. He also plays for a North Georgia powerhouse that is used to winning big. It’s yet another major win for new defensive line coach Brady Hoke, who is proving to be a great hire. Also, Chatman’s primary recruiter was linebackers coach Tommy Thigpen, who finally landed another big fish in the Peach State.

He fills a major need for the Vols, who didn’t exactly hit a home run in defensive line recruiting in the 2017 class. Though the Vols are excited about the futures of Matthew Butler and Eric Crosby on the interior, they also took some developmental players such as Kivon Bennett, Ryan Thaxton, Marquez Bembry and Deandre Johnson. 

This year’s class looks — at least on paper — like it has a much higher “boom” ratio. Chatman will team with Tennessee in-state defensive tackles D’Andre Litaker and Brant Lawless to form a stellar trio. Elite in-state lineman Greg Emerson and defensive end Jordan Davis, who is committed to Alabama, are still on the board. But the Vols have three strong defensive tackles in the fold, and that’s a major deal at this point of the recruiting cycle.

Also, it’s possible Chatman could be a “swing” player who could play on the interior or exterior, depending on where the Vols need him the most, much like guys such as Jonathan Kongbo, Kyle Phillips and others. It’s nice to have a few players with that kind of versatility, and Chatman has the type of athleticism and explosive that can allow for that, though his highest ceiling is probably as a 280-290-pound interior lineman. Regardless, he can play either the 3- or 5-technique, and that’s big news for a Vols team needing linemen.

This is a big commitment for the Vols.