Gameday on Rocky Top

When Rick Barnes was hired at Tennessee, one of the early questions was, “Which Rick Barnes are we getting?” From 2003-08 at Texas, he made a Final Four, two other Elite Eights, and won the Big 12 twice. It became success the program had a hard time duplicating, a conversation we were familiar with from a football standpoint. But from a basketball standpoint, Tennessee was much more vulnerable in looking for its third coach in as many years. Barnes’ “weaknesses” still looked like strengths for the Vols seven years ago this week. (The comments from Rocky Top Talk are a good reflection of all this.)

Seven years later, his strengths are indeed now our own: a conference title when picked to finish 13th in the league, a month at number one the next season, and now our first SEC Tournament championship since 1979. The Vols have seven Top 5 wins under his watch, and are 10-7 against Kentucky. And any questions about recruiting no longer exist. The program has signed eight consensus five-stars since 2000; Barnes has five of them in the last four years.

All of that is meant to position you as well as possible in the bracket, when it all matters most. And in positioning, Tennessee has also excelled. The Vols have earned a Top 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament only five times in our history. Barnes has three of those in the last five years.

Heartbreak has followed, of course. Sister Jean. Ryan Cline. 2-for-18.

In this, we’ve found ourselves circling back to one of those first questions: “Can his success at Texas be duplicated at Tennessee?” Approached, no doubt. Approached, and counted as not just progress, but new heights. Many of the things Rick Barnes is doing at Tennessee haven’t been done here, recently or ever.

We’re also, so far, a school with a hard ceiling in March: one Elite Eight, no Final Fours. Sometimes I think this idea makes our tournament shortcomings even more painful: history is out there, just a few wins down the road.

It’s history Barnes achieved at Texas, multiple times, in the peak of his tenure there. So something we didn’t even deem necessary for success here when he was hired – can we be as good as they were at their best – has re-entered the chat.

One piece of good news on that front: in at least one way, we’ve already done it.

Rick Barnes Teams in KenPom, 2002-2022

KenPom doesn’t award trophies, at least none that I’m aware of. But it remains an excellent way to judge the overall strength of your basketball team, and make better year-to-year comparisons. Like SP+ in football, we love it for the way it assigns value to every possession, not just every outcome.

Of course, we’d trade all our highest-rated-in-KenPom stuff for more tournament wins, in a heartbeat. And Tennessee’s only team to advance to the Elite Eight in 2010 is an outlier in more ways than one: that group was a six seed, and finished the year at 18.50 in KenPom. That’s eighth-best among Tennessee teams in the last 20 years. But they won a tight 6/11 game in the first round, took advantage of an upset by beating a 14 in round two, and then cashed in on the final possessions in beating #2 Ohio State in the Sweet 16.

The old joke from football abounds here: the best way to win close games is not to play them. But in the NCAA Tournament, that option seems wildly unavailable, and earlier than we think. Unless you get a significant upset in your pod, you’re playing a Quad 1 game in Round 2.

To borrow Josh Heupel’s line about being in a race against ourselves to be as good as we can as fast as we can? In basketball, you want to be as good as you can as late as you can. One of the best ways to advance in March is to benefit from upsets around you. But in terms of what we can control, which is always a good place to start, the best way to advance in the tournament is to be a really good basketball team all year, and at your very best on Selection Sunday.

Five days later, I think this is still the most painful part of the loss to Michigan. Tennessee checked those boxes like never before, and this team was positioned to give the 2019 group a run for its money as our best ever, in KenPom and elsewhere.

But, at least for me, what we can control also comes into play in how these wins and losses are remembered. The Vols didn’t shoot 2-for-18 because they took bad shots. The loss to Michigan is simple to explain, though still not easy to live with. In this way, I don’t think it will resonate as long as some of our other tournament defeats. To me, the hardest losses to live with are the ones when you felt like you were in control of the outcome with the most to gain/lose; there are still ghosts from 2000 North Carolina and 2007 Ohio State floating around in those regards. And Tennessee’s bracket didn’t fall apart around them, a common thread of both 2000 North Carolina and 2018 Loyola Chicago, which to me is still the toughest loss during Barnes’ time here.

I’m less concerned with what some of Barnes’ teams who struggled more in the regular season did in the tournament. Sometimes teams struggle for good reasons and put it together late for even better ones; here too, our 2010 Elite Eight squad qualifies. In KenPom, you’ll note the Kevin Durant squad from 2007 is only 12th-best among Barnes’ teams in the last 21 seasons. Your mileage may vary on how far a team with the 18-year-old version of one of the best human beings to play basketball should’ve gone. But KenPom is helpful in revealing what a team is capable of over the course of the entire year, not just in its final games.

In those final games, Barnes’ very best teams at Tennessee and Texas have met various degrees of heartbreak. The 2019 Vol squad is, by this metric, his best team ever. But when we think back to that Purdue game, I’m still struck by a general absence of what exactly I’d like Tennessee to do differently. Ryan Cline hit 7-of-10 from the arc, and frustrations with officiating at the end had more to do with the rule than the call. In particular, 2019 was an incredible year for college basketball; the Virginia squad that won it all is one of the best teams of the last 20 years in KenPom, and from the Sweet 16 on they won by four, in overtime, one, and in overtime again in the finals.

If you want frustration with officiating and hard-to-live-with losses, check Barnes’ best KenPom team at Texas from 2011. In the 4/5 game with Arizona in Round 2, I’m pretty sure they lose possession on a five-second call that only goes to four. Of Barnes’ two Elite Eight squads, one lost in overtime, and the other to the 2008 Memphis squad we know well. His team that made the Final Four ran into Carmelo Anthony.

What did those Texas teams who advanced that far do differently?

• 2003 Final Four: The Longhorns earned a #1 seed, something that’s also never been done here. From there, their path to the Final Four went through a 16, a 9, a 5 (82-78 over UConn), and then #7 Michigan State was waiting in the Elite Eight. Texas won that game 85-76, then lost to Carmelo and Syracuse in the Final Four.
• 2006 Elite Eight: Playing from #2, they beat a 15, a 10, then #6 West Virginia 74-71, before falling to Big Baby’s LSU squad in overtime.
• 2008 Elite Eight: Again playing from #2, they beat a 15, survived #7 Miami 75-72, then blasted #3 Stanford by 20. #1 Memphis beat them 85-67 in the Elite Eight.

Again, not rocket science: Barnes’ teams that advanced the deepest in the NCAA Tournament were either a #1 or #2 seed. His three to achieve that at Texas all went to the Elite Eight. And his one to achieve that at Tennessee is, in KenPom, his best team ever, a Ryan Cline miss and an overtime away from the Elite Eight itself.

Maybe this is a lot of words just to say, “It’s hard to win in March.” You self-scout and all those things, and you work to make your own luck; Barnes has never been the guy to chalk losses up to misfortune, even when it might be the best available answer.

But I think the best thing Tennessee can do to win in March, it’s already doing: recruit great players, develop them well, build a cohesive unit that plays for each other, and win basketball games. That’s being done here, over the last five seasons, better than it’s ever been done. It’s being done on par with the best it was done at Texas. It didn’t manifest itself against Michigan from the three-point line, and instead went historically in the other direction. And that hurts the way sports will do you sometimes: it’s great, and it hurts. And it’s great.

The big picture, however, gives me as much reason to believe in Tennessee basketball now than ever. And I’m eager to see them chase the mountaintop again next year.

Go Vols.

Many years and one website ago, our old friends at the SB Nation Kentucky site referred to one of their losses as “an act of God.” I remember sharing a good-natured laugh about this at the time: such is the burden of Kentucky basketball, that when you lose, it has to be God’s fault first.

I thought about that earlier this year, when Kentucky shot a billion percent from the field at Rupp Arena. It was the worst statistical performance by a Tennessee defense in the last 20 years (via KenPom), at least. And Tennessee’s defense, as you know, was great. It was one of those things where the simplicity of it made it easier to stand, even when “it” was a 28-point loss to your biggest rival.

Two weeks ago today, Tennessee tied its school record by hitting 12-of-18 threes against Arkansas. The Vols were shooting 43.9% from three in their seven-game winning steak to close the regular season plus the SEC Tournament. We hit 14-of-24 (58.3%) in this building 48 hours ago.

Today: 2-of-18 (11.1%).

Tennessee’s previous low this season was 6-of-39 (15.4%) against Texas Tech. The 11.1% performance against Michigan isn’t just the worst all year, it’s one of the ten worst percentages the Vols have shot in the last 20 years (via KenPom).

I’m not sure I would even lean too heavily on the, “This team can go cold in spurts,” conversation. This wasn’t cold in spurts. There was no spurt. This was the freezer for 40 minutes. With good looks from good shooters. But today, the answer was no.

We almost won anyway. The Vols still had 15 assists, and shot 53.1% from two. Uros Plavsic had nine points and nine rebounds. Kennedy Chandler had 19 points and nine assists. The Vols turned it over just seven times.

But 2-of-18 from three beats you, in March or otherwise.

Credit Michigan for holding up their end, even short-handed. Hunter Dickinson kept them alive and well early in the second half, and his teammates picked up where he left off down the stretch. It’s our third tournament loss to the Wolverines since 2011, but this time there’s no coach waiting to be let go or a charge call we can’t live with.

Nothing is easy to live with in March. Wasn’t the case three years ago when Ryan Cline hit seven threes. Or the year before that when Sister Jean made sure it wasn’t God’s fault, but watched it hit the rim a few times just to keep ’em humble. Or any of the years before that.

It’s never easy. But it is pretty simple today. Tennessee was as hot as any team in the country, then had one of their coldest days in history.

When we lose like this, it’s easy sometimes to think of all the days as cold. Tennessee’s breaks in the NCAA Tournament have often happened next to us, instead of directly involving us. The Vols made the Sweet 16 in 2010 and 2014 by way of a 14-seed beating a 3-seed, then dispatching that 14-seed with ease in the second round. But in terms of a game just going Tennessee’s way in this thing? That’s a harder list to curate, with nothing on it like what happened to us today.

Maybe that’s the hardest part: you can play so well for so long. In Tennessee’s case, probably the best the Vols looked entering the NCAA Tournament ever. You can be hotter than you’ve ever been. And then you can be colder than you’ve ever been the next game. And then it’s done.

I love basketball. It’s my favorite sport. And thus, I don’t like reducing it to, “Who made shots?” Today was an outlier, though one I’m sure will make its way into the aggregate of many a lazier argument about the Vols.

On the whole, this team gave us so much joy. So many good memories in the regular season, the ones you bank away because you know it only ends in heartbreak for all but one in March, and we’ve only been all but eight once ourselves. And then this team won the SEC Tournament for the first time in my life.

There is much to celebrate, and there was much to be hopeful for, and then it’s just done in the simplest way. Whenever it stops being hard, maybe that will help us enjoy everything this group did accomplish more robustly.

Because whatever your list of favorite Tennessee teams is? I hope this one still has a chance to get on it.

Go Vols.

Welcome to another Dragnet version of the Four Factors Forecast, this one for today’s Round of 32 game against the Michigan Wolverines.

Score Prediction

The lines have the Vols as 5.5- to 6.5-point favorites.

KemPom projects a six-point win for the Vols — Tennessee 71, Michigan 65 — giving us a 72% chance of winning.

Hat Guy likes Tennessee by 9, 74-65 in favor of the good guys in Big Orange.

Baseline

Current numbers:

According to KenPom, Tennessee’s strength of schedule is ranked No. 10 and Michigan’s is ranked No. 7.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Turnover %

Offensive Rebound %

Free Throw Rate

Those are the straight-up comparisons. Let’s see what it all looks like with the opponent impact thrown in.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Turnover %

I like the look of that.

Offensive Rebounding %

Free Throw Rate

Go Vols.

One of the best days in sports is relevant right away: the first game of the NCAA Tournament features the other half of Tennessee’s pod in Indianapolis, with Colorado State and Michigan squaring off at 12:15 PM ET. The Vols and Lancers will follow around 2:45.

The Vols are seventh in the nation in KenPom, third in defensive efficiency, and have done all that playing the nation’s fourth most difficult schedule. There’s as much reason to believe in this Tennessee team in this tournament than any I can remember, and meaningful history is available with almost every win.

Here’s how Tennessee is most likely to get those.

Tennessee’s Best Basketball

• 24-1 with 11+ assists
• 23-1 shooting 29+% from three
• 22-1 shooting 39+% from the floor

The go-to numbers all year, with the consistent lone loss coming when the ghost of Joe B. Hall set the nets on fire in Lexington. Tennessee’s best offense is shot selection, and Rick Barnes’ teams continue to set the pace in assist percentage: sixth nationally this year, seventh in 2018, 24th in 2019.

One difference between this team and those: the number of players who can take the lead in scoring. Grant Williams or Admiral Schofield led the 2019 Vols in scoring in 28 of 37 games. This year, Tennessee’s leading scorers have been:

• Santiago Vescovi 12 games
• Kennedy Chandler 6
• Josiah-Jordan James 4
• Zakai Zeigler 4
• Olivier Nkamhoua 4
• John Fulkerson 2
• Justin Powell 1

Tennessee’s balance covers a multitude of sins, and helps promote good shot selection. An important recent development here: Kennedy Chandler had zero assists and three turnovers in the loss at Texas. Since then, he’s averaged 4.5 assists to 2.2 turnovers in the last 13 games. In his three-game run as SEC Tournament MVP: 15 assists, 3 turnovers. This offense is accelerating, and he’s at the wheel.

Against their toughest competition, the Vols also found wins just beneath those shooting and assist numbers. They beat Auburn with nine assists. They beat Arizona at 38.8% from the floor and 29.2% from the arc.

As has been the case all year, the Vols don’t need much from their shooting to win, and they’ve been getting that and more for a while now. Since the loss at Arkansas: 61-of-139 (43.9%) from the arc, seven wins, zero losses. Josiah-Jordan James in that stretch: 18-of-36 (50%). Not bad for a guy who went 14-of-63 (22.2%) in his first 11 games this season while recovering from injury.

The defense leads the way, but it can’t win by itself. Tennessee’s two best defensive performances this year by shooting percentage: 30.5% at Arkansas, 31.1% vs Texas Tech, both losses. The good news is, the Vols have mostly solved the offensive rebounding problems that plagued them in the past. Against teams not featuring Oscar Tshiebwe, the Vols went 19-2 when allowing single digit offensive rebounds. They also beat teams featuring Oscar Tshiebwe twice, despite allowing 29 combined offensive boards.

So, what beats Tennessee?

Tennessee’s defense travels everywhere except Rupp. So even when the shooting isn’t there, the defense keeps the Vols in it. What has taken Tennessee out of it this season: turnovers and poor free throw shooting.

Kentucky forced 20 turnovers at Rupp, Villanova 18 in Connecticut. The most painful portions of the losses to Texas and Texas Tech: identical 8-of-16 performances from the free throw line. Tennessee is 16-2 when shooting 68+% from the stripe.

From the few losses we’ve seen, the worst-case scenario for Tennessee is cold from the arc + sloppy with the ball + really poor free throw shooting. Against elite competition, two of the three showing up could be trouble. But Tennessee’s defense has still been so good, the Vols have had their chances in three of those seven losses. If we get back to Villanova, we’ll see if we can take anything from that one.

If the Vols get a good day from their offense, a great day from their defense tends to take care of the rest. Their ball sharing and diversity of scoring options has led to far, far more good days than not recently. And even if shots aren’t falling, taking care of the basketball and making free throws can be enough to win the day.

Tennessee’s best basketball has unfolded beautifully these last few weeks.

It could dance for a while.

Go Vols.

Since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, Tennessee has made the NCAA Tournament 16 times. Fifteen of those have come in the last 25 seasons, including 11 of the last 17. We’re getting used to this.

What we’re not accustomed to yet is advancing beyond the Sweet 16. The program’s only appearance in the Elite Eight is now 12 years old, ending a bucket shy of the Final Four in 2010. Tennessee’s six trips to the Sweet 16 since tournament expansion have come one of two ways: earn a top five seed, or get some help in the bracket. Two of Tennessee’s very best teams got there in 2008 and 2019. A pair of Vol squads won the 4/5 game in round two in 2000 and 2007. And two others found a 14 seed waiting in round two in 2010 and 2014.

Maybe you’ll find this helpful for visualizing our tournament history:

It’s easy to get ahead of ourselves when Tennessee is playing so well. In fact, I’m not sure any Tennessee team has played this well leading up to the tournament, so yeah, maybe we don’t know how to handle it at all. Jerry Green’s best teams in 1999 and 2000 won incredibly meaningful games down the stretch in the regular season, but both lost on Friday in the SEC Tournament. The same fate befell Bruce Pearl’s first two teams in 2006 and 2007.

And even those very best teams in 2008 and 2019 ran into a combination of fatigue and the schedule catching up to them. The 2008 squad was 25-2 when it went to number one, but finished 4-2 down the stretch. The 2019 squad was 23-1 before losing at Rupp, finishing 4-3 in the regular season before riding a steep roller coaster in the SEC Tournament. The 2010 team that advanced the farthest won five in a row, then lost to Kentucky by 29 in the SEC semifinals. And Cuonzo Martin’s team won five in a row in their closing run by an average of 23 points, but only one of them finished in the KenPom Top 100.

This Tennessee team was 11-5 (2-3) on January 15, and lost at Kentucky by 28. Since then they are 15-2, with a one-point loss at #6 seed Texas, and a loss at #4 seed Arkansas. In that stretch they’ve beaten #6 seed LSU, #2 seed Kentucky, #2 seed Auburn, #4 seed Arkansas, and #2 seed Kentucky on a neutral floor. Without question, they are playing their best basketball.

But before we worry about Arizona or the Final Four, consider how quickly history would be in front of this team.

Since tournament expansion, here are the highest-seeded teams Tennessee has beaten in the NCAA Tournament:

• #2 Ohio State (2010 Sweet 16)
• #4 Virginia (2007 Second Round)
• #5 UConn (2000 Second Round)

If the Vols beat Colorado State in the second round, it’ll go next on the list, tied with #6 UMass in the first round in 2014. If the Vols beat Villanova in the Sweet 16, it’ll tie 2010 Ohio State for the best team we’ve beaten in the tournament and the farthest we’ve advanced, ever.

Beyond seed or path, this Tennessee team has as good of a chance to advance as any I can remember. The tournament is also a dangerous, single-elimination affair. In 2019, Colgate hit 15-of-29 from the arc against us, and made life a lot less comfortable than we had in mind going into a 2-vs-15 game.

It’s a privilege to consider the ceiling with a team like the one we have now. But the incredibly meaningful outcomes along the way in the bracket, especially relevant to our tournament history, give us reason to celebrate every single win in this thing.

I hope there are many of them. Almost all of them can be special.

We’ve got a podcast being uploaded shortly to discuss all things SEC Tournament and the bracket, and you can once again join us in the madness with our Gameday on Rocky Top 2022 bracket challenge! We’re again playing at CBS this year, it’s free to play, and who knows…you too might win a new car and tickets to the Final Four! Follow the link to sign up, and let us know if you have any questions in the comments.

Go Vols.

In KenPom, the distance between the second-best team in the country (Arizona) and the 12th-best team (Villanova) is 2.67 points. It’s an abnormal amount of parity, one that leaves little separation between the bottom of the #1 seed line and the #3 line. It’s why I’ve thought, for a while now, that where the Vols are seeded and sent matters less this year. We’ve got the wins to prove it.

We got another one today. It’s Tennessee’s third Top 5 win of the year, and the seventh of Rick Barnes’ tenure. The margins are thin, but in KenPom the team right behind Arizona at #3 is still Kentucky. That gives the Vols three wins over two of the best teams in the nation.

I don’t know where the Vols are going to play after tomorrow; specifically, can they pass Duke and/or Auburn to get first and second round games in Greenville, SC? I don’t know where the Vols are going to be seeded; specifically, are we still having conversations about them at #3? Could they still get to even #1?

Here’s what I do know: wherever they’re sent, wherever they’re seeded, I’m not sure they’re going to be asked to get a tougher win than the one they got today. At least not until we’d be talking about breaking new ground as a program. If Gonzaga is so much better than everyone else, so be it: the Vols won’t see them until the Elite Eight at the earliest.

The SEC Tournament is in Nashville the next three years. That would’ve been fun today, with Kentucky and Tennessee going at it on the weekend for the third time in the last four tournaments. In Tampa, there was more blue, to their credit. To Tennessee’s credit, every time they raised their voices, I’d look up and realize we were still up at least two possessions, and usually more.

Kentucky cut it to six with 16:28 to play. The Vols scored on their next three possessions, including buckets from Uros Plavsic and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield. The Vols were up 14 with 8:50 to go, but Kentucky cut it to eight in 41 seconds. Enter Kennedy Chandler: bucket, steal, bucket.

Chandler was there again when Kentucky cut it to six with 5:36 to go, answering immediately on the other end. He stuck two free throws with 2:40 to go that put the Vols up 12. And when it got hectic in the final minutes, and Chandler maybe followed suit…Santiago Vescovi was there to grab the rebound, ensuring Kentucky never had a possession with a chance to tie or take the lead.

Tennessee beat Arizona, LSU, Kentucky, Auburn, and Arkansas at Thompson-Boling Arena. Today, they beat Kentucky in the SEC Tournament semifinals. Again.

I don’t know where the Vols will be seeded. Here’s what I do know:

• Kansas has 11 Quad 1 wins, 12 if they finish off a Big 12 Tournament title. Gonzaga, Baylor, and Tennessee are the only other teams with 10.
• Tennessee’s strength of schedule is rated fifth nationally in KenPom. The Vols remain undefeated against Quads 2-4 (if Texas A&M beats us tomorrow, they’ll move into Quad 1).
• Tennessee is now 10-7 against Kentucky under Rick Barnes.

And I know we haven’t won the SEC Tournament in my lifetime. And I know the last time we played this game, we lost to Auburn by 20 on Sunday. John Fulkerson knows too, he was there.

I know everything is about the NCAA Tournament, and I know you have to find meaningful celebration before then since everyone loses but the champion. And this Tennessee team just keeps making memories, and those memories can give them as good of a chance to advance as we’ve ever seen.

I don’t know how much more challenging it’ll get than today. But today gives Tennessee a chance to make tomorrow even more meaningful.

1:00 PM ET, ESPN for the SEC Tournament Championship on Selection Sunday.

Go Vols.

After six days off, Tennessee returns to the floor tonight against Mississippi State (6:00 PM ET SEC Network) in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. Victory would send the Vols to round three against Kentucky or Vanderbilt on Saturday.

In Thursday’s latest Bracket Matrix, Tennessee is the second #3 seed, 10th overall, with very little space between Purdue, the Vols, and Wisconsin on the three line. Baylor lost to Oklahoma in the Big 12 quarterfinals, but the defending champs are probably too far up the ladder to fall to Tennessee’s range. Villanova narrowly escaped against St. John’s.

For #2 seed purposes, here’s the slate today:

• Auburn vs Texas A&M, 12:00 PM, ESPN
• Tennessee vs Mississippi State, 6:00 PM, SEC Network
• Wisconsin vs Michigan State, 6:30 PM, Big Ten Network
• Duke vs Miami, 7:00 PM, ESPN
• Kansas vs TCU, 7:00 PM, ESPN2
• Kentucky vs Vanderbilt, 8:00 PM, SEC Network
• Villanova vs UConn, 9:00 PM, Fox Sports 1
• Purdue vs Penn State, 9:00 PM, Big Ten Network
• Texas Tech vs Oklahoma, 9:30 PM, ESPN2

Auburn is the last #1 seed and Kansas the first #2 seed in the Bracket Matrix; like Baylor, they’re also probably out of Tennessee’s range. Next is Kentucky, where the Vols can take care of their own business tomorrow if the opportunity presents itself.

It’s the next group where there’s the most wiggle room: Duke, Villanova, Purdue, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Texas Tech. If the Bracket Matrix holds, two of those teams will earn #2 seeds. Over at Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology, the Vols are the final #2 seed coming into Friday with Villanova; the computers have no human feelings for Coach K, with Duke the last #3 seed.

The NCAA Tournament is both the ultimate goal, and a dangerous way to define your entire season. It’s why regular season memories are valuable to keep us warm year to year, and this Tennessee team has checked that box many times over. The seed line is the combination of the two, your regular season accomplishments giving you a better chance to advance in March. For a program looking for its second Elite Eight and first Final Four, there are tangible rewards available before the national championship.

If the Vols take care of business tonight, they should lock up at least a #3 seed, and may land there even if Mississippi State pulls the upset. Only four Tennessee teams have been seeded three or higher: twos in 2006, 2008, and 2019, and a three in 2018. It would be the most important feather in an already full cap. And the stakes only get higher from here.

Go Vols.

You want your best basketball to emerge at this time of year, and behold: the first half yesterday was without question the Vols’ best 20 minutes of the year. And then the second half highlighted some of the things that have hurt Tennessee the most throughout these 30 games. But as was the case against Arizona and Auburn, the Vols still found a way to get it home. It is, of course, what good opponents do: take away some of your strengths, attack most of your weaknesses, etc. And Tennessee took all of those punches and still had enough to win.

Tennessee is now 20-1 when shooting 29+% from three this season, 19-1 when shooting 39+% from the floor. The one loss came at Rupp Arena, and it seemed like we were going to break even for that in the first half against Arkansas. Tennessee finished 12-of-18 from the arc, tying a school record (from Bruce Pearl’s first SEC game at South Carolina in 2006) for best three-point percentage on 12+ attempts.

This is the most straightforward way to understand this Tennessee team: if they get 30+% from three and 40+% from the floor, they win. And when those things don’t happen, they’re still dangerous because of their defense. Tennessee’s seven losses are all of the Quad 1 variety, all of the road/neutral variety, and three of them are in overtime to Texas Tech, at the buzzer at Texas, and without Kennedy Chandler and John Fulkerson at Alabama.

The Vols moved to 21-1 with 11+ assists on the year. But the Vols also beat Auburn with nine. They beat Arizona right at those shooting numbers: 38.8% from the floor, 29.2% from the arc. Tennessee has been good enough to beat the best teams in college basketball when those best teams take away some of our best strengths.

Arkansas also highlighted some of Tennessee’s greatest weaknesses. Three of the Vols’ worst performances this year came with a heavy dose of turnovers: 20 at Rupp Arena, 18 vs Villanova, 18 in the overtime win at home vs Ole Miss. Turnovers not only cost you a possession, they undercut this team’s greatest strength in having their own defense set.

The Hogs forced 17 turnovers, as did Auburn, many of them late. But Tennessee still won.

Offensive rebounds were a particular sticking point for the Vols in the past, especially when teams went for double digits there. Away from home, Villanova, Alabama, LSU, and Arkansas all went for 10+. In Knoxville, Auburn had 10, and Arkansas 11 yesterday. Oscar Tshiebwe fueled 16 for Kentucky in Knoxville. Even when some of Tennessee’s greatest areas for improvement show up, the Vols have still knocked off elite competition.

The Vols also beat Arizona and Arkansas while shooting just 66.7% at the free throw line; when Tennessee hits above that number, the only teams to beat them are Villanova (on only 13 attempts) and Alabama.

Tennessee is one of just eight teams in the nation with 8+ Quad 1 wins, and one of just eight teams in the nation with zero losses to Quads 2-4. The only teams to show up on both of those lists are Gonzaga and the SEC’s triumvirate of Auburn, Kentucky, and the Vols. The league is as good as it has ever been, and it will be interesting to see how that’s reflected one week from today. But thanks in part to North Carolina’s win at Duke, the Vols are up to the two line in Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology. And who knows: if Tennessee wins the SEC Tournament by going through Kentucky and Auburn, I think the Vols could still get to a one seed.

Tennessee’s ceiling and floor seem well defined and in good, working order. The defense is great enough to ask for only goodness from the offense. And even when the competition does a great job attacking the Vols’ few weaknesses, Tennessee has still been good enough to win against the best in college basketball, multiple times over.

If you wanted Tennessee’s best basketball at the right time, you’ve got it. We’ve had it for a while now. And I’m excited to see where it takes us.

Go Vols.