Butch Jones’ tenure in Knoxville has featured an unusual number of these kinds of games. Frantic fourth quarters, miracle finishes, games decided on the final drive or a dramatic play in the final minute or, in this case, final second. Sometimes the Vols win, sometimes they don’t. Sometimes we get Josh Dobbs at South Carolina in 2014 or Jauan Jennings last fall in Athens. Sometimes we get Antonio Callaway and Tyrie Cleveland.

But when the dramatic wins and the dramatic losses just balance out, they don’t leave you with progress. It leaves us with heart conditions and, to their credit, a “we’re never out of it” confidence in players so a play like Justin Martin’s end zone punch-out is oddly normal because we just saw Malik Foreman do it last year.

So you can say a lot of things about that final play (and one of them should be a tip of the cap to Feleipe Franks for the throw). But Tennessee’s biggest problem today was that they put themselves in position to be beaten by it.

Coming into today, when the Vols had a 1st-and-10 inside the opponent’s 40 yard line they went on to score a touchdown on every drive except the one ending in Quinten Dormady’s end zone interception against Indiana State last week. Today when the Vols had a scoring opportunity inside the 40, they did this:

• 1st Quarter:  Dormady interception on 3rd-and-10
• 2nd Quarter:  Cimaglia 51-yard field goal made
• 2nd Quarter:  Cimaglia 47-yard field goal missed
• 3rd Quarter:  Dormady end zone interception after 1st-and-Goal at the 1
• 3rd Quarter:  Cimaglia 51-yard field goal missed after third down sack
• 4th Quarter:  Medley 44-yard field goal missed
• 4th Quarter:  Touchdown
• 4th Quarter:  Touchdown
• 4th Quarter:  Medley 27-yard field goal good after 1st-and-Goal at the 9

In seven first-and-goal snaps in the second half, the Vols threw seven passes. Those two sequences went like this:

• 1st-and-Goal at the 1: Should have been picked, unsportsmanlike conduct on Florida
• 1st-and-Goal at the 1: False start on Jack Jones
• 1st-and-Goal at the 5: Incomplete
• 2nd-and-Goal at the 5: Complete to John Kelly for a loss of 1
• 3rd-and-Goal at the 6: Dormady intercepted
• 1st-and-Goal at the 9: Incomplete to John Kelly, should have been a touchdown
• 2nd-and-Goal at the 9: Incomplete
• 3rd-and-Goal at the 9:  Incomplete

Seven plays, and none of them gained a single yard. This is exactly what happened on Tennessee’s only seven red zone snaps against Florida in 2014. John Kelly had 19 carries for 141 yards, but the Vols never ran the ball in a goal-to-go scenario.

This was Larry Scott’s third game calling plays, and I thought he did some good things again today. But what happened in the most crucial part of the field and the game was disastrous. Scott can learn and adjust. The Vols need better field goal kicking. But the overall philosophy must evolve, as Tennessee continues to flirt with the dramatic instead of taking better advantage on every snap.

This has happened with two defensive coordinators, three offensive coordinators, and now three different quarterbacks. It starts with Butch, who to his credit didn’t seem to shy away from that in the postgame. His teams absolutely never quit. But his teams have to be better at making the other team quit.

I don’t know what the best label for it is in the play-calling:  more aggression, more confidence, more competence, etc. But mismanaging crucial situations has cost Tennessee against Florida in 2014, Oklahoma and Florida in 2015, and Florida today. That covers Bajakian, DeBord, and Larry Scott. It is a common, painful theme.

Butch isn’t going anywhere. We all need to blow off a little steam, but everything else is a waste of energy right now. The Vols get UMass next week, then Georgia. If this year’s theme is DAT way, today was a reminder that Butch’s teams have been both incredibly tough and incredibly frustrating in the details. That leaves accountability, which starts with the head coach but must be more than a postgame quote. Tennessee must start coaching and playing to take more advantage on every snap, or they will continue to risk breaking hearts and having theirs broken every Saturday. And they will continue to find themselves on an incredibly entertaining treadmill.

It’s here. Tennessee-Florida Gameday. It’s a why game, why the players play, the coaches coach, and the fans fill the stands. Vols. Gators. The SEC on CBS.

And it’s today.

We’re having an online game-watching party right here, and you’re invited.

• Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Radio: Vol Network (WNML in Knoxville)
• Live Stats

P.S. There’s still time to submit your answers to this week’s Guessing Game questions.

While we’re all waiting for the Vols to kick off against the Gators at 3:30, hang out with us here. There will be a separate game thread for the Vols, which will go live later.

Here are the schedules again, the short one curated for Vols fans first, and then the full schedule for the day:

Complete college football TV schedule

VolQuest is reporting that Tennessee safety Todd Kelly, Jr. is out indefinitely with continuing knee problems. Mike Griffith of SEC Country cites a source in saying that Kelly won’t play tomorrow “on account of a potential-season-ending knee injury.” From that statement, it’s hard to tell whether Kelly’s already had surgery or whether the surgery itself is merely a possibility. The remainder of the article makes it sound like they’re still trying to figure out whether surgery is the best course of action. Either way, Kelly is out for some extended period of time.

Kelly has only played sparingly in the first two games, as Nigel Warrior and Micah Abernathy have gotten the bulk of the work at safety.

Kelly was fourth on our early-August list of the defensive players the team could least afford to lose to injury. He was behind Kahlil McKenzie, Kendal Vickers, Cortez McDowell, and Darrin Kirkland Jr., the latter of whom has already been lost for the season. The emergence of Daniel Bituli at linebacker has eased the dependence on Cortez McDowell a bit, but losing Kelly for an extended period of time is a blow, as it means that the defense will be without two of its five most important players.

Beneath all the talk, the rivalry, and the unique circumstances surrounding this year’s Tennessee-Florida game, this is the most important fact:  for the fourth year in a row, the Vols have the better team.

The better team doesn’t always win. In 2014 the Vols kept Florida’s offense at bay all day, surrendering only a 30-yard touchdown drive and a 49-yard field goal. But because the Vol offense had a total of seven snaps in the red zone and all seven failed to gain a single yard, the Gators escaped 10-9. In 2015 Tennessee scored to take a 26-14 lead with 10 minutes to play, didn’t go for two, then surrendered conversions on 4th-and-7, 4th-and-8, and 4th-and-14 before poor game management left them with only a 55-yard field goal attempt in one of the five most difficult losses of my lifetime.

Florida got those wins, which is ultimately what matters most. It’s what mattered most for Tennessee last year. But in each of the last three match-ups, the Vols have outperformed the Gators in both total yards and yards per play (with an even turnover margin in each game):

It hasn’t just been on the field. Tennessee out-recruited Florida from 2014-16, and after a setback in the rankings in February, both the Vols and Gators are currently putting together Top 10 classes for 2018:

(Blue chip ratio represents the percentage of each class made up by four-and-five-stars)

Underneath some perceived friction between Butch Jones and the Tennessee fanbase is the stability Jones has built into the program over the last five years, a stability which may now exceed Florida’s. It’s frustrating to say the Vols really could/should be going for four in a row against the Gators on Saturday and going for their third straight SEC East title this fall. But what’s also true is this may represent the longest stretch of years when Tennessee has had the better team in this rivalry since it became an annual one in 1992. And with a win on Saturday, the Vols will put themselves in an excellent position to extend this run.

The last time Tennessee capitalized on Florida’s instability wasn’t perfect either:  the transition from Steve Spurrier to Ron Zook included an incredibly weird and painful shouldn’t-have-happened loss in 2002, but the Vols still won three of four from 2001-04 en route to a pair of east titles. Butch Jones’ Vols can’t get 2014 and 2015 back, but turned the tide in this rivalry in dramatic fashion in 2016. The close losses may still be painful, but the team’s overall performance the last three years, culminating in last season’s signature win, should give Team 121 real confidence going to Gainesville.

Confidence could be Tennessee’s best weapon in this game. The Gators can ride a wave of “nobody believes in us” on Saturday with backups in key roles, the state still recovering, etc. The best way to deal with emotions like that is in businesslike fashion. And Tennessee’s offense has shown early signs that business could be very good this year.

In Tennessee’s advanced statistical profile at Football Study Hall, the Vol offense ranks 56th nationally in explosiveness. Anytime an offense is more explosive, fans have more fun. But attempting to be explosive can be dangerous for a young quarterback with relatively unproven play-makers, especially against a Florida defense. What takes care of business is efficiency, and there the Vols have excelled.

Football Study Hall and S&P+ utilize success rate to measure efficiency:  does a team gain 50% of the needed yardage on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third and fourth down. By this metric the Vol offense is successful on nearly half of its snaps (49.1%) through two games, 29th nationally. Tennessee has also taken advantage of excellent special teams play, 12th in the nation in average starting field position.

But most impressively, Tennessee’s offense is fifth nationally in finishing drives, measured by points per trip inside the 40 (or, when your team had a 1st-and-10 inside the opponent’s 40 yard line, how often did they score?).

Last week Quinten Dormady threw a terrible interception in the end zone. But every other time the Vols have had 1st-and-10 inside the opponent’s 40 this year, they have scored a touchdown. An average of 6.42 points every time you cross the 40 ranks fifth nationally. That’s impressive no matter who you’ve played.

Larry Scott’s offense is laying down an efficient identity, and that’s exactly what Tennessee needs in Gainesville. The Vols have more talent, more of the right kind of experience through two weeks this fall, and have a chance to be the more stable program coming out of Saturday. With so much uncertainty surrounding this game, I fall back on the simplest answer:  Tennessee has the better team. And this time, they’ve already earned their confidence.

Take care of business.

Go Vols.

It’s time for this week’s Locks & Keys, and it’s FLORIDA WEEK!!! Though that may not mean as much to you as it used to, it should. This is still a big game, and though Georgia may be the beast of the East this year, the Vols must win this football game this weekend to have a strong chance at the division.

It also needs to win to turn the vibes of the early season toward a positive manner. Things aren’t perfect on Rocky Top right now, by any stretch, but the record is. That’s all that matters. If it still is after Saturday, it’ll be time to start getting excited.

This is going to be one of those years where UT needs to be up every single week it’s playing in the conference because anybody on the schedule can beat this team. But this team can also beat anybody on its schedule (with the possible exception of Alabama). So, if that ain’t fun, I don’t know what is.

As for the Locks, last week went much better than the first one.

Last week, I went 4-2-1, which is a little better than the week before. That pushes the overall season record to 6-5-1, which isn’t too bad. Hey, we’re up (fake) money, aren’t we? Why are you mad?

UTSA was getting 16.5 points against Baylor. Are you serious? Easy pickins. Easy. The Roadrunners won outright. Houston took care of business in an ugly, sloppy game against Arizona, Oklahoma State covered 28 against South Alabama, and South Carolina easily beat Missouri, who was favored by 2.5 points. Iowa pushed with a 44-41 overtime win over rival Iowa State. Then, I lost the Tulane over (THOSE TEAMS JUST STOPPED SCORING IN THE FOURTH QUARTER!!!!) Then, yeah, Kansas was trounced against Central Michigan. I blew that completely. Sorry about that.

4-2-1. There you have it. Hey, that looks like Tennessee’s defensive scheme against Georgia Tech. At times, it appeared they were playing 7-on-11.

Before we get to the keys, let’s take a look at last week’s.

• Better defensive line rotation: Was it better? Yeah, it was. But it still wasn’t as good as I want it. I really would like to have seen depth guys like Quay Picou, Alexis Johnson, Kivon Bennett and Co. more than I saw. But it wasn’t too bad. We got to see a lot of Kyle Phillips, and he played well. The linemen weren’t huffing and puffing, so that’s an improvement from Week 1. We’ll see how this week goes. SUCCESS!
• Dormady reading through progressions: There were a couple of situations where Dormady locked in on his receiver, including the awful interception in the end zone that cost the Vols points for the first time they traveled inside the opponents’ 40-yard line all season. But Marquez Callaway was far from the only weapon. UT looked to get other guys involved, and nine different players caught passes. SUCCESS!
• Start stronger: How’s a 91-yard kickoff return for a touchdown by Ty Chandler on the opening kick of the game? Yeah, we’ll take that. SUCCESS!
• Build up Bituli and Co: I said I couldn’t imagine a defense without sophomore Daniel Bituli in it, and it appears coordinator Bob Shoop feels the same way. We’ll see how it goes against the Gators, but it sounds like the Vols believe Bituli has to play and start. I really wanted to see more Will Ignont and Quart’e Sapp, but that’s OK. I got my dose of Bituli. SUCCESS!
• Don’t get anybody hurt: The only real important injury was to backup tight end Eli Wolf, who won’t play against the Gators. While that’s a major bummer, it’s normal fallout from a college football game. There weren’t any irreplaceable injuries against the Sycamores. SUCCESS!

So, Tennessee basically did everything it was supposed to do in a 42-7 tuneup win over Indiana State as it geared up for the Gators. We didn’t really learn anything, but we didn’t lose anything, either.

Let’s take a look at Tennessee’s keys to this week’s vital game against the Gators.

KEYS

Take Care of the Ball

Tennessee had two costly turnovers against Indiana State, and though they didn’t really matter, they did cost the Vols 14 points. The first one — a Dormady fumble — led to ISU’s only points of the game. The second one — a Dormady interception — cost the Vols a touchdown, as it was thrown in the end zone.

That cannot happen against the Gators.

This may not be the mighty Gators we’re used to seeing, but it’s still a team with talented players that has gone to the SEC Championship in the each of the past two years. It’s also a team that has had its way with the Vols until last year. Even though Florida isn’t good, the Gators still think they are. That’s dangerous. The Vols cannot give them extra possessions, and UT must continue to do the things it has done offensively, which is put the ball in the end zone once they get to the plus side of the field.

Impose Your Will

Throughout the first two games, it looks like the strength of Tennessee’s team is running John Kelly between the tackles. Senior center Jashon Robertson has been impressive, and so has freshman guard Trey Smith. The other guard spot, which has been shared by Jack Jones and Venzell Boulware, has been strong, too.

The Vols need to continue that success running the ball up the middle. It may not be sexy, but Kelly is a beast, and he looks great the more you feed him. And, hey, give him a breather or two, too. Ty Chandler, Carlin Fils-aime and Tim Jordan are all capable backups.

There’s no reason for Tennessee to be cute. Put this game on the shoulders of your best player and the line in front of him. Florida’s strength is its defensive line, so this is going to be strength vs. strength. The Vols must win this at the point of attack.

Cover Those Edges

Even when the Sycamores were 0-for-11 on third downs last week, there were still fundamental flaws on UT’s defense. The Vols haven’t proven yet that they can cover the edges of the field, and the Yellow Jackets and Sycamores both had too many situations where they turned the corner and got upfield.

That’s not the strength of Colton Jumper’s game, which is why Bituli needs to be on the field. The Vols also need more help from defensive end Jonathan Kongbo, who hasn’t looked like himself in the first two games. That may be why we see Kyle Phillips more against Florida. The Vols also need players like Nigel Warrior, Todd Kelly Jr. and Rashaan Gaulden to step up in the run game.

This is a game where the matchups seem to favor the Vols. They need to get hyped up early. We haven’t seen this defense against a conventional offense yet, and we will this weekend. It’s time for them to flip the narrative.

Get a Game-Changer

It’s a major sting that the nation’s top kick returner — Evan Berry — is questionable. If he can play, the Vols need to put him in there. But even if he can’t, Chandler is a game-changer returning kicks, and Callaway is a strong punt returner, too.

The Vols could use a special teams touchdown, a pick-six or a deep catch or long run. The Gators aren’t a team anybody expects to light up the scoreboard. If the Vols can get a game-changing, momentum-swinging play or two, they may just pour it on the way they did during the second half last year. If this is a close game, it may favor the Gators in the Swamp.

Be the Aggressor

It took a player with as much swagger as any Vol has had in the past decade to take over and lead Tennessee to a win last year when Jauan Jennings stepped up. It also didn’t hurt to have a dual-threat star at quarterback in Joshua Dobbs who played on another level.

Neither of those guys will trot onto the field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium this weekend.

But Tennessee needs to play like the team that won last year. The psychological advantage needs to be over. The Gators are confident again, of course, but UT needs to do its talking on the field. The Vols need to play with more of an edge, and if they do, they may just have a little win streak against UF and send the Gators to their first 0-2 record since 1971.

LOCKS

Alright, we’re 6-5-1. I’m going to give you six picks that I really, really like this week, so let’s try to go undefeated, shall we?

1. UCLA -3.5 over Memphis: This is an odd game with the Bruins traveling across country to play a quality Tigers team in the Liberty Bowl. But you’ve got to love Josh Rosen right now, and though Memphis didn’t get the chance to play last week’s major showdown against UCF, the Tigers proved to be vulnerable against the pass against Louisiana-Monroe in Week 1. I like a lot of points to be scored, but the Bruins cover.
2. Tulsa +10.5 over Toledo: I cannot believe I’m getting double-digit points in this one. Yes, I know it’s at the Glass Bowl, where the Rockets are tough. But the Golden Hurricane are my jam, man. They’re a money-making machine. They are 4-0 against the spread in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record. They cover easily, and it may be worth betting the money line.
3. Clemson -3.5 over Louisville: I was dead wrong about Kelly Bryant, and the Tigers look like they are a legit contender yet again this year. They’ll make it two big-time wins in a row after dispatching the Cardinals handily this week. Nobody else has Lamar Jackson, who is a freak of nature. But Clemson has a dynamite front seven, and they’ll at least slow him down enough to win by a touchdown or more.
4. North Carolina -7.5 over Old Dominion: It’s hard to believe the Tar Heels are 0-2, and, no, they aren’t a very good team. But they’ll beat the Monarchs handily. They beat a horrible UMass team just 17-7 a week ago, and though UNC has had its struggles, it can still put up points. I’m not sure ODU can.
5. Purdue/Missouri under 78.5: A WHOLE LOT of points are going to be scored in this one, but SEVENTY NINE? I’m just not sure about that. That’s a whole lot of real estate on the under, and as a bonus pick, I love the Boilermakers, too. They would have been my seventh pick. The only reason why I didn’t include them is it’s on the road. But go ahead and do it. For me.
6. Tennessee +5.5 over Florida: Because I feel obligated to, I chose this game over Purdue. I really do think the Vols are a better team, and I can’t justify any reason why the Gators should be 5.5 point favorites, no matter where the game is. What have they proven? That should be a slap in the face to the Vols, and they should play that way. I like UT to win this one outright, 30-24.

We’ve spent a good couple of weeks now evaluating Team 121, and most of our angst has been in the form of fretting over the various warts of the Vols’ defense. We probably won’t know for a few weeks still whether the run defense actually hasn’t improved from last season or whether the early season performance can indeed be chalked up entirely to the triple option. But somehow, numbers that would normally be alarming headed into a rivalry game with Florida don’t seem so frightening this time around.

Because Florida’s got their own problems.

Florida Gators Offense

Observations. When I first loaded this up, I was looking at the most current stats, and they showed Florida’s offense as the absolute worst FBS team in the nation in four categories and in the bottom four in three more. I knew they’d been bad that first week, but had they actually been the absolute worst? Please tell me that it’s so.

It was only then that it dawned on me that the rankings compare teams with one game (Florida, for instance, who had to cancel their game last week) to teams with two, and that those numbers aren’t necessarily indicative of how the team really compares to others.

So, I re-did everything from scratch looking just at the first full week’s stats.

Guess what? Florida’s offense is actually terrible. Maybe not the worst, but still rotten poultry rancid bad.

Bottom three in rushing offense. Bottom eight on first down and third down, as well as in sacks allowed and total offense. Not much better in the red zone or at allowing tackles for loss. Still in double digits in scoring and passing efficiency. Barely out of the gutter in completion percentage and passing yards.

They haven’t yet thrown an interception, so if you’re giving participation trophies, that’s what you tell the engraver.

Yes, all of this could change against Tennessee, especially with the Vols’ defense looking similarly inept in its first game. But, goodness, Florida’s offense looked woeful against Michigan.

Florida Gators Defense

Observations. Much of this was actually surprising to me. Florida has accomplished what it has the past couple of seasons on the strength of its defense, and everyone knows that it was the defense that scored 14 of the team’s 17 points in the season opener. So, I expected to see some good numbers here.

There are, indeed, some good numbers. There’s the #1-ranking in defensive touchdowns you expected, and there’s the interceptions to go with it. There’s also the behind-the-line havoc stats in sacks and TFLs, which will provide a major challenge to Tennessee’s offensive line Saturday.

But after that, the Gators defense don’t look up to its usual standards, at least based on its first game stats. Rushing defense, in particular, looks suspect, which should keep Tennessee running back John Kelly’s smile on full power this week.

Basically, it looks like somebody’s scoring when the Gators are on defense. It might be you, but it might be them. Exciting!

Florida Gators Special Teams

Observations. Special teams stats are especially wonky early in the season, so don’t make too much of any of this. The main takeaway here, I think, is that they had four touchbacks on four kickoffs, so one of the Vols’ advantages (the kickoff return team) is probably already gone.

Florida Gators Turnovers and Penalties

Observations. With two pick sixes, you’d expect to see better numbers in overall turnovers, but no. They’re also not especially disciplined, as measured by penalties. But again, it’s one game’s worth of stats.

Florida Gators Players to Watch – Offense

Observations. As you’d expect, there’s nothing too frightening here, except the appearance of two defensive players on the list of offensive players to watch. It appears that Malik Zaire was maybe a tad bit more efficient than Feleipe Franks, but I wouldn’t conclude that that means he’ll play more than Franks on Saturday.

Note the glaring absence of any running back on that list at all. If there are any go-to guys in the passing game, they appear to be sophomore wide receivers Josh Hammond and Tyrie Cleveland. Combined, they had seven receptions for 127 yards against Michigan.

Florida Gators Players to Watch – Defense

Observations. The defensive guys are the ones to watch out for as potential game-changers Saturday. Defensive backs Duke Dawson and CJ Henderson are the guys who had pick sixes against the Wolverines, and defensive lineman Jordan Sherit had two sacks. DB Nick Washington led the team in tackles with nine. If you want to conclude something about the linebackers based on that stat, feel free.

Florida Gators Players to Watch – Special Teams

Observations. Kicker Eddy Pineiro hit only one of two field goal attempts in the first game.

Conclusion and prediction

As we discussed on our podcast last night, the key to this game is going to be which of Florida’s offense and Tennessee’s defense finds itself first and best. Apart from that, the Vols should lean on John Kelly running angry and hope the offensive line can hold its own against Florida’s defensive line. Be careful in the passing game, as Florida’s DBs are ball hawks, but don’t be too careful, as there are opportunities in the passing game as well.

The lines and the computer models all have Florida in this one, and I usually trust those things. But I just don’t understand either of them on this one, and I’m going with the Vols not just to cover but to win outright, 24-17.