Gameday on Rocky Top

Butch Jones held his regular Monday press conference this afternoon and addressed several questions relating to the South Carolina game, player availability, and the upcoming game against Alabama.

Among other things:

• The problems in stopping the run come down to being on the field too long, the offense having too many 3-and-outs, and the defense not being able to get off the field on third down.
• Darrell Taylor is still suspended, and Jakob Johnson is out of practice, but other than that and the previous injuries, the team emerged from the South Carolina game fairly healthy.
• Kicker Brent Cimaglia “thinks he’s a football player” and often goes down to make tackles after kicking. He learned on Friday that he’d be the starter, and he was ready.
  • Jones isn’t focused on this being his toughest game so far in his career at a time that is also the most important for him, he’s just focused on getting ready to play.
• The wide receiving corps is learning what it’s like to play in the SEC, namely that every catch is contested. They’re working hard and progressing, but need to have more big plays and better consistency.
• There are a lot of things that go into executing a big play. Some of it is play-calling, some of it is winning one-on-one matchups, and some is the timing of the call and where you’re at on the field.
• Jones thought the tempo was good on offense in the first quarter, but suffered in the second half due to too many 3-and-outs.
• When asked if Jarrett Guarantano’s play may cause them to open up more of the playbook, Jones said yes, maybe, but that he also didn’t want to give him so much that his mind would tie up his feet.
• Regarding whether they might consider running the one-minute offense during other periods of the game due to its success last week, Jones said that they would evaluate that.
• They may or may not be done shuffling the offensive line. Continuity is good, but matchups matter as well. Plus, Tatum struggled a bit at right tackle, his problem generally being the “anchor of his sets.”

Here’s the whole thing:

Unless the Vols pull off the miraculous in Tuscaloosa on Saturday, the 2017 season will become about the 2018 season. With the SEC East out of range and the on-paper progress of a 9-3 season likely to fall at Alabama, the meaningful goals for Team 121 will be lost before November. But if there is good news in the midst of such strife, it’s that Team 122 will be mostly comprised of meaningful players from Team 121. You never know what will happen with transfers in an unstable coaching situation, but most of this team will have the opportunity to be back next season.

And that means it’s in Tennessee’s best interests for Team 121 to figure itself out before it becomes Team 122, regardless of who the coach is.

Maybe it’ll be Butch Jones. Maybe it won’t. But from a fan perspective, there is no need to be conflicted about what to root for on Saturdays. Tennessee needs to get better now so it can be better next year when those goals are fresh on the table. And that obviously starts with the offense.

How will the quarterbacks be managed the rest of the season?

The Vols have commitments from four-star Adrian Martinez and three-star Michael Penix, but it seems most likely that either Jarrett Guarantano or Quinten Dormady is the starting quarterback in 2018. That will depend, to some degree, on how one or both of them are managed the rest of this fall.

Will the coaching staff (however it looks) ride Guarantano the rest of the way from here, or does Dormady get another look if/when Guarantano really struggles? All the first half observations were a little sunnier than the second yesterday, but I thought this was a good one:

JG reminds me of freshman year Dobbs. Has no idea what to do after the primary route breaks down, but has the presence to get something.

— Brian Rice (@briancrice) October 14, 2017

The raw numbers for Guarantano were fine – 11-of-18 for 133 yards – with the fact that he threw no interceptions almost negated by taking seven sacks. Some of that is an offensive line which does feature three of this team’s seniors, plus a fourth in tight end Ethan Wolf. They are the offensive position group that will look most different next year. But if the rest of the offense is going to grow for the future, they’ll need better play from Brett Kendrick, Jashon Robertson, Coleman Thomas, and the rest right now.

For the quarterback’s part of the blame for seven sacks, he’ll learn…and that’s the best thing about Guarantano right now. He has the opportunity to get better, Alabama notwithstanding, against defenses that will be more forgiving down the stretch. Right now Kentucky (73rd in yards per play allowed), Vanderbilt (94th), and Missouri (121st) should all give Guarantano and the Vol offense a chance to look better than they have recently.

Growth can be slow for a young quarterback, but still present. Josh Dobbs completed 59.5% of his passes with a -4 TD/INT ratio in 2013. In 2014 he was up to 63.3% and +3. Guarantano doesn’t have to look like 2016 Dobbs just yet. He just needs to get better.

Has the offense really been bad all year?

Remember the first two weeks of the season when we were all just worried about where the defensive linemen were positioned at the snap? There were and are a plethora of bad memories from Florida on both sides of the ball, but statistically speaking? The Vols had at least a decent offense through three weeks.

Consider this:  the Vols averaged 6.25 yards per play against Georgia Tech; the Yellow Jackets are two points away from 5-0 and only Miami (6.5) has had a better day against their defense. And which offense has had the most productive day against the Gator defense? It’s us:  so far Tennessee is the only team to average more than six yards per play (6.14) against Florida.

Through three games, Tennessee was averaging 6.09 yards per play. That’s better than the 2016 offense was doing through the first five games last year (5.47), until it met Texas A&M and business started to pick up.

No one was praising the offense because regardless of its per-play efficiency, the mistakes it made in the red zone at Florida were catastrophic. This too was new:  going into Gainesville one of the things I was most confident in was how successful the Vols had been not just inside the 20, but inside the 40 against Georgia Tech and Indiana State, where every drive but one had ended in a touchdown.

But since Florida, the overall production has been drastically different. The red zone failures are familiar, but the overall struggle is newer. Perhaps what happened against the Gators rattled Dormady or Larry Scott or who knows who else. Perhaps it was simply more of Tennessee’s identity getting put on film and the offense failing to adjust. Or perhaps a mismanagement of the quarterback situation from the beginning of the season has manifested itself the last three weeks. Regardless, it’s hard for me to believe this offense is hopeless with either quarterback, because there were in fact hopeful signs in the first three weeks. The sooner the Vols rediscover that hope, the better 2018 can be. An offense that returns John Kelly, Marquez Callaway, and (hopefully) Jauan Jennings has a lot to be excited about if we can add in more of an answer than a question at quarterback.

What about the defense?

On the other side of the ball, the seniors on this team we thought the Vols would count on most have largely been removed from the equation. Todd Kelly Jr., Cortez McDowell, and Evan Berry have all been lost to injury. Shaq Wiggins has struggled to see the field. The Vols will have holes to fill at corner with Justin Martin and Emmanuel Moseley both leaving, but at this point the only other seniors in the regular defensive rotation are Colton Jumper and Kendal Vickers. This team will have a chance to return a ton of talent and experience in the front seven, plus both safeties and Rashaan Gaulden.

Same as this year, there will be plenty of recruiting stars on the roster in 2018, and same as this year, that will be no guarantee of success. But though it may feel like Tennessee has little left to play for this year and the conversation about Team 121 is getting dwarfed by coaching curiosity, so much of this team is coming back that the second half of this season will have a direct impact on the next one. Getting clarity on the coaching situation is of great importance to Tennessee’s success next year. But so is getting the team that will largely return next year to play better football now so they can achieve their goals next time.

As Saturday’s probable era-ending 15-9 loss to South Carolina unfolded, it became clear to me that history is repeating itself before our half-covered eyes.

Butch Jones’ coaching decisions on the field will ultimately be his undoing in Knoxville, but choices he made off it certainly won’t help. Jones decided this offseason to promote tight ends coach Larry Scott — who’d never called an offensive play on any level — to be his offensive coordinator in a pivotal season.

It was a puzzling act that at least made you think back to Phillip Fulmer’s ill-fated choice to bring in Dave Clawson and his Incredible Line-Flipping Fiasco as offensive coordinator in the year that ultimately led to his ousting. For Derek Dooley’s debacle, it was bringing in Sal Sunseri to sit at the helm of the defense that led to his undoing.

Scott is the catapult that’s going to launch Butch out of Knoxville. But, let’s not kid ourselves, the in-game decisions are constantly, consistently atrocious. That’s ultimately the last push.

Whatever energy vampire lurked in Tennessee’s locker room at halftime needs to be booted immediately, because after the Vols went in at the break, they came out a different team. If you want to see adjustments, this wasn’t the place to be. A defense that dominated the first half got tired and got pushed around in the third and fourth quarters, as South Carolina’s inside-zone cutbacks with its third-string running back was something Bob Shoop had no answer for.

Yes, you read that right. Tennessee’s $1 million defensive coordinator was beaten like a 10-cent pony after the half.

And that was nowhere near the worst thing that happened to Tennessee. After Jarrett Guarantano — making his first career start — was finally allowed to throw downfield on the final series, completing three passes to get the Vols in scoring position with no timeouts and the clock running down, Jones elected not to have his young quarterback spike the ball after the final first down.

The clock ran, bleeding eight or nine seconds. If you don’t think that’s a big deal, it meant at least one and probably two plays. UT got one of them back on some generous clock-keeping by the Neyland Stadium crew that left a second on the clock after an incompletion in the end zone cost the Vols just three seconds, but that doesn’t change a horrific coaching decision not to spike it. That was an unfathomable choice, and it’s just the latest in a long line of gaffes by Jones.

His own stubbornness, his inability to expand and enhance his offensive scheme and his almost nonchalant style — which contradicts his fiery demeanor — continues to be obstacles UT can’t overcome. Too many times, the Vols find themselves needing to win in spite of their coaching, and they simply aren’t talented or deep enough to do that.

Jones isn’t the guy. This isn’t the staff. This team really should be better. Despite all the off-the-field shenanigans and rumors and all that, UT came out fired up and played well in the first half. The players acted like they wanted to win, like they wanted to save their coach and save face in the process. There were no discernible boos during the game by a decent Neyland Stadium crowd, and the game unfolded the way any close SEC game should.

Then, the Vols coaches blew it like they’re accustomed to doing. For anybody who wants to blame Guarantano for this, that would be crazy. It’s the Jones offense, and it’s Scott’s play calling. Plain and simple.

A blunder before the season started escalated this situation. It has manifested itself in an ugly situation that has witnessed Tennessee failing to score a touchdown now in 10 quarters. That’s two-and-a-half games. AT HOME! On Saturday, the Vols had -14 rushing yards in the second half. Prior to Guarantano completing those passes to put UT in a position to score a game-winner that would never come, the entire offense had negative 7 yards in the second half.

Just when you thought this team may show signs of life, it died again.

The only casualty that is going to sting may be the decimation of what was an excellent recruiting class. But when these youngsters are going to come into a situation where they aren’t being developed and aren’t competing for four quarters or aren’t being placed in the best position to win, it’s a moot point.

If you think we’ve already fired this staff here, that’s not the intent at all. We’ve all heard all week that this was a “must-win” game for the Jones era. He didn’t win. That says all that needs to be said. Now, at 3-3 and 0-3 in the SEC, you start realizing what’s going to happen and analyzing WHY it happened.

It’s happening because Butch’s offense is Butch’s offense. It’s a scheme he said early in his tenure was “infallible” but has turned out to be anything but. The offense was the offense when Justin Worley couldn’t run it. The offense was the offense when Joshua Dobbs could, but yet Jones and Mike DeBord couldn’t expand it to be dynamic and explosive enough to incorporate enough big plays to beat the best teams.

And the offense is the offense now. It was clunky again under Quinten Dormady, wasting his arm strength and failing to put him in a position to utilize his best assets. It was clunky again on Saturday with Guarantano — somebody who is built to run the offense — because the offensive line struggled and because Scott is predicable, can’t get into a rhythm and may be one of the worst play callers we’ve seen in a while.

At this point, it falls on Butch. Everything does. Much like Fulmer and Dooley before him, a bad coaching hire just exacerbated things.

It’s been said the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Tennessee football is insane because this is the third time it’s happened, and the only way to stop this endless cycle is to try it yet again.

Even if it’s driving us all crazy in the process.

Four weeks ago today. 8:13 to go in the third quarter against the Florida Gators. First-and-goal at the Florida 1-yard line. John Kelly was having a good game and had started this very drive with consecutive 12-yard runs.

We all remember what happened. Quarterback Quinten Dormady threw the ball on first down, and it was incomplete to Marquez Callaway. The Vols got one do over on the same drive, as Florida committed an unsportsmanlike penalty on second down and gave the Vols another 1st-and-goal from the 1-yard line. But a false start moved them back to the 5-yard line, and one incomplete pass, one pass complete for a loss, and one interception later, and the Vols came away from the opponent’s 1-yard line with zero points.

You may also recall the explanation for that decision: The team had indeed called a run play on that first first down, but Dormady had also been taught to check to a pass if that particular defense presented itself, which it did. So he checked to the pass.

That’s not an unreasonable explanation, as long as the main lesson isn’t lost: If it happens again, make sure John Kelly gets the ball. No matter what.

Skip ahead to this afternoon. 1:13 to go in the fourth quarter. Tennessee, after a solid start to the game in which the offense was moving the ball but couldn’t get into the end zone, got absolutely shut down in the second half. And yet, with the game on the line, the team found some life and marched 73 yards to get to 1st-and-goal at the South Carolina 5-yard line with nine seconds left to play.

You don’t want to run the ball there, because five yards is a long way on the ground and the team had no timeouts and no way to stop the clock. Instead, you take a shot throwing the ball into the end zone, which is what Tennessee did. It triggered pass interference, and the Vols found themselves at 1st-and-goal at the 2-yard line with four seconds to play.

And this is where you want to give the ball to John Kelly. He’d been averaging 3.6 yards per carry, and this was your chance at a do over for the mistake made in the Florida game. You didn’t have to worry about the clock because it was almost certainly your last play. Because it’s your last play, you call your best play.

Instead, Tennessee tried a pass to Josh Smith, and it was incomplete.

But wonder of wonders, the play happened so quickly, that there was still one second on the clock.

Another do over.

And on their second chance for the last play of the game from the 2-yard line, they . . . ask the brand new dual-threat quarterback to throw a pass to a receiver. It was incomplete.

There’s no guarantee, of course, that Tennessee would have scored a touchdown if they had just handed the ball off to John Kelly. He was part of the offense that got mostly shut down in the second half. Maybe there’s some reasonable explanation for what happened.

But there’s no real argument for any better playmaker on the Tennessee offense than John Kelly, and after all of the discussion about not running the ball in short yardage for a score against Florida, you’d think they would have made the most of their do overs. If they had tried and failed, well, at least they would have failed with their best option.

It’s not like there weren’t any positives in this game. The offense was much more productive in the first half with Jarrett Guarantano adding an additional running threat. The defense also started strong again. And there was no evidence of players unwilling to play for Butch Jones or each other.

But once South Carolina adjusted to what Tennessee was doing well, the Vols’ staff struggled to make any adjustments that worked.

The inability to make in-game adjustments that work has been a theme for some time now. If they add an inability to learn from past mistakes to the mix, they’re going to make things very difficult for themselves.

They must make the most of their do overs. Who knows how many they have left?

The Tennessee Volunteers host the the South Carolina Gamecocks today at high noon in Neyland Stadium. If you can’t be there, this is the second-best place to watch. The game’s on ESPN.

• Kickoff: 12 p.m. ET
• Listen online
• Watch online
• Live stats

Once the Vols game is over, shift to watching the rest of today’s college football slate. You can find our weekly college football TV schedule and rooting guide for Vols fans here, and that will serve as our “other games” thread as well.

The Vols have a high noon showdown with the South Carolina Gamecocks on ESPN, and then it’s off to watching future and past opponents in action the rest of the day.

Here’s the Week 7 college football TV schedule, curated for Vols fans. It includes kickoff times, TV stations, and what’s at stake in each game from the perspective of a Vols fan. It also includes helpful suggestions on how to watch everything most efficiently and who to root for in each game.

The full schedule for the entire weekend is also included at the bottom of the post.

Go Vols!

Thursday, October 12

I couldn’t tell you one thing about either of these teams. But it’s football.

Friday, October 13

On one hand, Clemson is, like, stealing our players, man. On the other, they may be a bit of a blueprint on how to turn things around. So, your call. And this is a friendly reminder that Mike Leach is at Washington State and is the World’s Most Interesting College Football Coach.

Gameday, October 14

Be in Neyland Stadium early this Saturday for a noon kickoff against the South Carolina Gamecocks. What will happen? Who knows! But have fun.

Noon slot

Go Vols.

Afternoon slot

At 3:30, the Red River Rivalry will be the national draw, but we’re hoping that Georgia Tech continues to look good, and then we’re also getting looks at future opponents LSU, who hosts #10 Auburn, and Vanderbilt, who travels to Ole Miss.

Evening slot

The best game to watch here is probably Missouri at #4 Georgia on the SEC Network, as we can get a look at both a future opponent in Missouri and a past opponent in Georgia, but channel hop between that and Texas A&M at Florida and Arkansas at Alabama, too. Remember, Alabama’s next week for the Vols.

Complete college football TV schedule for Week 7

And here’s the complete schedule for the week, paginated and searchable!

How do you help your brand new quarterback in a critical game? Get off to a good start. And that’s something Tennessee has to do better regardless of who’s taking snaps.

In 56 games under Butch Jones, Tennessee has scored on the opening drive 19 times (34.5%) with 14 touchdowns and five field goals. Against FBS competition, the Vols have scored 15 times in 51 games (29.4%), with only 10 touchdowns on the opening drive (19.6%). And against power five opponents, the Vols have scored only seven touchdowns on the opening drive, with four of those coming against Kentucky and Vanderbilt. So only against Arkansas and South Carolina in 2015 and Iowa in the Taxslayer Bowl have the Vols scored a touchdown on the opening drive against non-Kentucky/Vanderbilt power five opponents.

This year the Vols have been particularly bad:  three-and-outs against both Indiana State and UMass, just 10 yards in five plays against Georgia Tech, a first-play interception against Georgia and another in Florida territory. The Vols had a 20-yard gain on the opening drive at Florida, but failed to gain more than eight yards on a single play in any of their other opening drives this year.

As you’ll recall, starting hot was not a problem in 2015:  the Vols scored touchdowns on the opening drive against Bowling Green, Western Carolina, Arkansas, South Carolina, North Texas, and Vanderbilt, plus field goals against Oklahoma and Missouri with a missed field goal at Alabama. The 2015 Vols also threw a pick against Georgia and fumbled deep in Kentucky territory. Only twice did the Vols punt on the opening drive that year:  at Florida, and in the Outback Bowl in the season’s only three-and-out on the first series. Other than the Northwestern game, every opening drive had a play that went for at least 13 yards.

The big play potential was there in 2016 as well:  aside from three-and-outs against Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, and Kentucky, the Vols had plays of at least 11 yards on every opening drive. But Tennessee struggled to finish drives last season, getting a field goal against Appalachian State and touchdowns against Ohio, Tennessee Tech, and Vanderbilt but punting it away every other time.

What we’ve seen this year is similar to what the Vols did in 2013 and the first half of 2014 before Josh Dobbs took over full-time. Tennessee scored a touchdown on the opening drive in the first (Austin Peay) and last (Kentucky) game of Butch Jones’ inaugural season, but had six punts and three turnovers in between. A 30-yard gain against Auburn led to a field goal, but seven of the other drives between the first and last game had plays gaining no more than six yards.

In games started by Justin Worley in 2014 (taking out Chattanooga), the Vols went three-and-out four times and also punted after a five-play drive at Ole Miss. Only against Georgia did the Vols produce points (a field goal) on their opening drive before Dobbs took over.

This year the Vols are averaging just three yards per play on the opening drive (21 plays, 63 yards) with no points. In all other years the Vols have averaged between 4.9 (2013) and 6.3 (2015) yards per play on the opening drive. And remember, this year’s team has already played the two worst teams on its schedule, and went three-and-out against both of them.

Tennessee will need to get Jarrett Guarantano in rhythm early, but may also need to address philosophical issues that could be leading to an overall lack of success on the game’s opening drive. There is no more necessary time to make those adjustments than now, to give a new quarterback and the head coach a better chance at success.

Here’s the full data from every game under Butch Jones: