Gameday on Rocky Top

Our free-to-play picks contest is back! Join us over at Fun Office Pools for our annual community contest.

If you’re new with us, we pick 20 games per week, straight up, using confidence points: place 20 points on the game you’re most confident in (so, Vols vs Ball State this week), 1 point on the game you’re least confident in (…Utah at Florida?), etc. You can pick up til kickoff of each game, and if you fall behind or miss a week, you still earn just one point less than the lowest score that week, so you’re not eliminated via forgetfulness. Week Zero games aren’t included, so our first matchups begin a week from tomorrow. They’re live now at Fun Office Pools:

Thursday, September 1

• Ball State at Tennessee – 7:00 PM – SEC Network
• West Virginia at #17 Pittsburgh – 7:00 PM – ESPN
• Penn State at Purdue – 8:00 PM – Fox

Friday, September 2

• Virginia Tech at Old Dominion – 7:00 PM – ESPNU
• Illinois at Indiana – 8:00 PM – Fox Sports 1
• TCU at Colorado – 10:00 PM – ESPN

Saturday, September 3

• #13 NC State at East Carolina – 12:00 PM – ESPN
• North Carolina at Appalachian State – 12:00 PM – ESPNU
• #3 Georgia vs #11 Oregon (Atlanta) – 3:30 PM – ABC
• #23 Cincinnati at #19 Arkansas – 3:30 PM – ESPN
• #24 Houston at UTSA – 3:30 PM – CBS Sports Network
• #25 BYU at South Florida – 4:00 PM – ESPNU
• #7 Utah at Florida – 7:00 PM – ESPN
• Army at Coastal Carolina – 7:00 PM – ESPN+
• #5 Notre Dame at #2 Ohio State – 7:30 PM – ABC
• Memphis at Mississippi State – 7:30 PM – ESPNU
• Georgia State at South Carolina – 7:30 PM – ESPN+
• Boise State at Oregon State – 10:30 PM – ESPN

Sunday, September 4

• LSU vs Florida State (New Orleans) – 7:30 PM – ABC

Monday, September 5 – Labor Day

• #4 Clemson at Georgia Tech – 8:00 PM – ESPN

Any questions, fire away in the comments. Good luck!

Here we go.

How many games will the Vols win this year? Our favorite way to find our what you really think is back: the Gameday on Rocky Top Expected Win Total Machine launches today, and will be back every week throughout the season.

Enter your percentage guess for each game in the table below (something closer to 100 for Ball State, something closer to…not zero for Alabama or Georgia). Once you submit all your totals, you’ll get your expected win total for Tennessee’s regular season. We’ll keep tabs for the entire community and report back with how we’re all feeling later this week.

When we ran this after spring practice, our community total was 8.1 expected wins. I’m curious to see how that may have changed as we move toward game week.

Enjoy. Go Vols.

Tennessee’s greatest area for potential improvement is in sack rate. Vol quarterbacks went down on nearly 10.5% of their pass attempts, the highest percentage at UT in the post-Fulmer era. It continues to amaze that Hendon Hooker still threw just three interceptions on 300+ passing attempts, a Tennessee record.

On the other side of the ball, where can Tennessee improve the most? When teams get in the red zone, keep them out of the end zone.

Last year the Vols finished 119th nationally in red zone touchdown percentage allowed. Opponents had 50 possessions in the red zone against the Vol defense, and scored touchdowns on 36 of them. It stands out in Tennessee’s losses, as you’d expect:

Opponent	Red Zone	TDs
Pittsburgh	7	5
at Florida	5	4
Ole Miss	4	3
at Alabama	7	7
Georgia	4	3
vs Purdue	6	2

Sometimes, you just get beat by a really good team. Against Georgia, there was little opportunity for any of those drives to go differently once they reached the red zone, where bent = broken.

But in each of the other games, there was at least one really good opportunity for Tennessee’s defense to get off the field. It’s these plays – the ones that can make the biggest impact on the scoreboard – that could make the biggest difference in Tennessee’s defensive improvement this year.

Pittsburgh

• The Panthers got on the board by opening the second quarter with a touchdown on 3rd-and-10 from the 11. This cut Tennessee’s lead to 10-7, and was the first of five straight scoring drives for Pitt.

Florida

• On their opening possession, the Gators converted a pair of 3rd-and-4s in the red zone to cap off a touchdown drive.

Ole Miss

• After the fumbled punt in the first quarter, Ole Miss was backed up to 3rd-and-14 at the 15, but a defensive holding penalty extended the drive and set up a touchdown.
• Leading 17-9 in the second quarter, Ole Miss converted a 3rd-and-10 at the 12, punching it in two plays later for a 15-point lead.

Alabama

• With the Vols leading 14-7, Alabama converted a 3rd-and-Goal at the 5 for a tying touchdown
• On their next drive, Bama converted 3rd-and-7 at the 17, eventually taking the lead
• On the last play of the third quarter, Bama had 2nd-and-12 at the 14. They gained eight yards, then Bryce Young ran in for the score on 3rd-and-4 at the 6, making it 31-17.

The good news: against Purdue, Tennessee’s defense turned the Boilermakers away three times in the second quarter. Though they later allowed a touchdown on 3rd-and-Goal from the 10, their red zone work – perhaps less affected by a thin secondary? – was a vast improvement.

Still, that’s nine conversions of 3rd-and-4+ in the red zone in our six losses. And overall, only four opponent drives came away with zero points in the red zone: two against South Alabama, a garbage time drive against South Carolina, and one of the most impactful plays of the year:

If you’re looking for meaningful improvement, there’s plenty of opportunity here. Whoever the Vols are playing close games against this year, these are the plays that can end up making the difference. Will Tennessee’s overall depth make a significant difference here? And will we see this defense able to impose its will and turn more teams away entirely?

Look, when exactly am I supposed to go to the bathroom during these games?

I raised this concern last year, but that was me assuming I’d only have trouble at Neyland. Listen, this offense is so fast, I can’t go in my own home in peace. I will buy anything with that Power T on it, but adult diapers might be the last straw with my wife. Might also be an untapped source of revenue for our athletic department too though.

And I can’t go when players on the other team fake injuries, because I’m too consumed with that white hot rage. Tried to tell y’all bout that Kiffin feller when everybody wanted to go down that road again after Jeremy. I don’t have no conflicting emotions with that guy, ‘cept for the rage and the restroom.

But God bless Josh Heupel for having one of our boys take a little nap after we kick an extra point. Not only is it a victimless crime, it is actively helping us know when it’s safe to go. I truly appreciate that.

And boys, we’re gonna kick a lot of extra points.

If dudes from Bama think we’re goin’ 10-2, that’s 12-0 easy. Y’all think about all the reasons we wanted to believe in these other fellas. The one because he said “britches”, the other cause he said, “aight?” You know why I believe in Josh Heupel? It’s because I watched us score 62 points on Missouri in like five minutes. We scored 28 points before we played a third down, then scored a 35-yard touchdown on the first one. And then, just when I was feeling a little “I don’t know about all this now” about those black uniforms? They put a 35-0 lead on South Carolina the very next week. And listen, one of those teams got Dan Mullen fired, and the other is doing Steve Spurrier’s proverbial cartwheels to be 6-6! When I tell y’all we were three referees away from 10 wins last year, you know I’m telling a higher percentage of the truth than usual!

Also, “I don’t know about all this now,” is what I said about that NIL stuff. Then we got Nico, and now I have taken on a third job to support the ministries of Spyre. I am genuinely concerned about getting a little bored, fellas. I mean, we’re clearly gonna win it all this year, then add the best quarterback in the nation next year? At least if I’m bored, I can use the restroom.

And we’ve already got the best quarterback in the nation this year! Hendon threw fewer interceptions than Peyton By God Manning last season, and no one really even knows what they’re doing in year zero one! He’s gonna come in second in the Heisman for sure. Cedric Tillman might come in third.

Then I hear people saying things like, “How much defense do we even need to play?” And I mean, sure, the real answer is, “One point less than we score,” which means we need to hold opponents to approximately 99 points per game. But fellas, y’all don’t think we’re gonna be better on that end too? We already know Jeremy Banks picked Hendon in a scrimmage, which should automatically qualify him for third-team All-American, at least. Byron Young and Tyler Baron off the edge?

And listen, some of these dudes are grownups. Trevon Flowers turns 23 round about the SEC Championship Game. Hendon turns 25 (!) a week after we win the natty. Old age ain’t just for John Fulkerson. Does Spyre have a pension plan?

Who’s gonna beat us? Who’s gonna threaten us? My greatest hope in the Pitt game is that we get up so much, they let Joe Milton get in there and throw a couple touchdowns, then just start launching balls into the state of Ohio just for fun.

And listen, Florida? We should’ve beaten those guys in ’14, ’15, got ’em in ’16, ’17…so when you say, “They’ve won 16 out of 17!” I hear, “Yeah, but we would’ve won most of those games easy if we had Heupel!” They ain’t no good. I’m making plans right now for where we’re going to celebrate after it’s over, and deep down? So are you.

LSU? We won the last two times we were in Baton Rouge when the game was over the first time! I’m not sure if there will be any Brian Kelly jokes left after they play Florida State, Mississippi State, and Auburn before us. But we’re coming off a bye, so we might score 150.

Bama? Y’all know we almost beat them last year when Hendon gave his all for Tennessee by getting half his teeth knocked out, right? And still threw for 282 and three touchdowns? Imagine what he can do with a full set of teeth!

Kentucky? Wait ’til basketball season. And Georgia? Let me just say, we had three second half drives against those guys that ended inside their 40 yard line. We were close, boys. We were close.

After we do all that, I’m supposed to be concerned about Missouri and South Carolina? If it wasn’t abundantly clear last time, I’m pretty sure we’ll once again make Mrs. Drinkwitz question her husband’s commitment to winning. And South Carolina will probably get to 7-5 this year, maybe add some backflips to the routine, good for them. Maybe we’ll be up less than 35-0 this time.

In Atlanta, y’all do what you want, but if I had my way, we’d get another shot at Ole Miss. I believe Jeremy’s currently unemployed, I don’t think Arkansas State can make the playoff, and Dooley got Butch’s old job as an “analyst” with Saban. But we can still right this wrong with Lane. We can still right a lot of wrongs.

We all know by now that winning the SEC is the real challenge, so pick whoever in the playoff and take the Vols and the over. 15-0, National Champions, son.

And I don’t know about you, but that thing is looking a little wobbly.

The USA Today Coaches’ Poll was released Monday and, to the surprise of some Tennessee fans, the Vols weren’t ranked among the top 25 teams in the country. Instead, fans had to count down three spots to #28, putting the Vols just outside the Top 25, right behind Iowa and Penn State. Also coming in ahead of Tennessee in the poll was border rival Kentucky (#21), as well as Week 2 opponent, Pittsburgh (#16).

So how have the Vols fared in the polls over the years? I took a look back at every poll since 1997 to see where Tennessee was ranked preseason, how they moved week-to-week, and most importantly, where they ended up at season’s end. It was an emotional exercise, complete with great memories: watching James Wilhoit kick a 50-yard field goal to beat Florida my freshman year at UT, or Jauan Jennings beating Jalen Tabor and streaking into the south end zone in 2016. It also had its share of pain: the 2016 loss to Vanderbilt that cost Tennessee a spot in the Sugar Bowl. Or watching a trip to the national championship snatched away by an 8-3 LSU team led by a backup quarterback in the 2001 SEC Championship Game.

Read More: How important is figuring out the #2 RB?

If you don’t have the time to read through each season’s ranking summary, here are a few key facts from my time poring over the polls:

• Tennessee has only finished the season ranked higher than they started six times since 1997:
  • 1998: Started #10, ended #1
  • 2001: started #8, ended #4
  • 2004: started #14, ended #13
  • 2007: started #15, ended #12
  • 2015: started #25, ended #23
  • 2019: started #55 (Coaches’ Poll), ended #35
• The Vols have started the season ranked in the Top 25 and ended it unranked four times since 1997:
  • 2000: #12
  • 2002: #5
  • 2008: #18
  • 2017: #25
• 2020 was the only year since 1997 that the Vols started the season outside the Top 25 (#26) and made it into the rankings, peaking at #12 before the 10-game SEC COVID schedule took its toll.
• The Vols #12 ranking in the final poll of 2007 would be the last time the team would be ranked at season’s end until 2015.
• When the Vols finished the 2007 season ranked #12, it would be 8 full seasons before they would achieve a higher ranking.

Here’s a detailed breakdown by year. Note that all rankings are from the AP Poll, unless otherwise noted.

Year-by-Year Poll Results

1997

Preseason: #5
Final: #7
Highest Rank: #3 (3 weeks)
Lowest Rank: #9 (4 weeks)
Weeks Unranked: 0

Tennessee kicked off the season ranked #5 in the country, and managed to hold a top-10 ranking all season long. The Vols held the #3 ranking three different weeks in Peyton Manning’s final season in orange, and took that ranking into an Orange Bowl matchup with #2 Nebraska. A loss to the Cornhuskers dropped Tennessee to #7 in the final AP poll.

1998

Preseason: #10
Final: #1
Highest Rank: #1 (6 weeks)
Lowest Rank: #10 (preseason)
Weeks Unranked: 0

The Vols only fell in the polls once in 1998, when they dropped from #3 to #4 after a 17-9 victory over Auburn on the Plains in Week 5. There was nowhere to go but up after that; the Vols secured the #1 ranking after taking down UAB in Knoxville on November 7 and rode it all the way to the National Championship. 

1999

Preseason: #2
Final: #9
Highest Rank: #2 (2 weeks)
Lowest Rank: #9 (final)
Weeks Unranked: 0

A team led by National Championship-winning quarterback Tee Martin finished the year 9-3, but an early season loss to #4 Florida in Gainesville, and a 4-point loss to unranked Arkansas in mid-November stifled Tennessee’s hopes to repeat as national champions. The #6 Vols fell to #3 Nebraska in the Fiesta Bowl, ending the season ranked #9 in the country. 

2000

Preseason: #12
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #11 (2 weeks)
Lowest Rank: Unranked 
Weeks Unranked: 6

In Phillip Fulmer’s eighth season with the Vols, the team finished 8-4 (5-3 SEC),  going undefeated in regular season play after freshman quarterback Casey Clausen took the reins against Alabama. However, three early losses to #6 Florida, LSU and #19 Georgia knocked the Vols from the rankings until the final week against Vanderbilt when the #25 Vols squeaked by the Commodores 28-26. The #21 Vols fell to #11 Kansas State in the Cotton Bowl to end the year unranked in the final AP Poll. 

2001

Preseason: #8
Final: #4
Highest Rank: #2 (1 week)
Lowest Rank: #13 (1 week)
Weeks Unranked: 0

“I still have PTSD about 2002. Shoulda been our year to win it all and legitimize ‘98 even more.”

“I took a rose to school the Friday before [the SEC Championship]. So hard to face the Bama fans the following Monday.

”Matty [freakin’] Mauck.”

These were the responses from a group text of Vols fans I’m in as we discussed what could have been from the 2001 season. Despite an early October loss to unranked Georgia that dropped Tennessee to #11, the #2 Vols were a win in Atlanta away from facing #1 Miami in the Rose Bowl, but lost to #20 LSU in the Tigers first trip to the SEC Championship. In fact, since it was first played in 1992, LSU’s ‘01 win was the only time the SEC Championship has prevented an SEC team from playing for a national championship. 

2002

Preseason: #5
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: 4 (4 weeks)
Lowest Rank: Unranked
Weeks Unranked: 7

Tennessee never beat a ranked team in ‘02, finishing the season 8-4 (5-3 SEC). Losses to #10 Florida, #6 Georgia and #19 Alabama pushed the Vols to #25 headed to a November 9 matchup with #2 Miami. A 26-3 Hurricanes drubbing in front of 108,000+ at Neyland Stadium knocked the Vols out of the Top 25 for good, although the team did finish #27 in the final Coaches’ Poll.

2003

Preseason: #12
Final: #15
Highest Rank: #7 (3 weeks)
Lowest Rank: #22 (1 week)
Weeks Unranked: 0

Behind Clausen, now in his senior year, the Vols finished 9-3 (6-2 SEC) with a win over #17 Florida, and revenge against #6 Miami for the previous year’s shellacking in Knoxville. Unfortunately, the Vols fell from #7 to #22 after back-to-back losses to unranked Auburn and #8 Georgia. UT got hot and snapped off six wins in a row to work their way to #6 before losing to Clemson in Atlanta. 

2004

Preseason: #14
Final: #15
Highest Rank: #6 (1 week)
Lowest Rank: #17 (2 weeks)
Weeks Unranked: 0

After a two big wins over UNLV and Louisiana Tech, and a James Wilhoit field goal to beat Florida, the Vols worked their way to #10 in the country, setting up a top-10 matchup between the Vols and #8 Auburn. With College Gameday on campus, the Tigers’ Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown ran up and down Shields-Watkins Field, handing the Vols a 34-10 beating. Tennessee slipped to #17 the week after, but a win at #3 Georgia turned things around. #15 Tennessee fell in a rematch with #3 Auburn in Atlanta, before knocking off #22 Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl, to end the year at #15. 

2005

Preseason: #3
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #3 (preseason)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 7

With quarterback Erik Ainge entering his second season on Rocky Top, hopes were high in Knoxville, with a preseason #3 ranking to match. A close win over UAB, followed by a loss to #5 Florida (the first in a long string to the Gators) knocked the Vols down to #10. After wins at LSU and against Ole Miss, the Vols then dropped three in a row to #5 Georgia, #5 Alabama and South Carolina to drop all the way out of the rankings. Losses to Notre Dame and Vanderbilt sealed the team’s fate and the Vols missed a bowl game for the first time since 1998.

2006

Preseason: #23
Final: #25
Highest Rank: #7 (1 week)
Lowest Rank: #25 (final)
Weeks Unranked: 0

Despite their disastrous 2005 campaign, the Vols managed to snag a Top-25 ranking in the preseason AP Poll. A dominant win over #9 Cal in Knoxville catapulted the Vols to #11 in the country, but a narrow win over Air Force, followed by a 1-point loss to Florida dropped Tennessee to #15. A streak of 5 wins, including victories over #10 Georgia and the team’s last win over Alabama, pushed Tennessee back up to #8, but losses to #13 LSU and #11 Arkansas dropped Tennessee to #22. UT climbed up to #17 after beating Vandy and Kentucky, but a loss to #17 Penn State pushed the Vols down to #25 in the final poll. 

2007

Preseason: #15
Final: #12
Highest Rank: #12 (final)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 4

The Vols traveled west to take on Cal in the opening game of the 2007 campaign, and the Golden Bears got payback against Tennessee for their 2006 loss with a 45-31 win in Berkeley. The loss dropped Tennessee to #24, and #3 Florida would knock the Vols out of the rankings with a 59-20 dismantling in Gainesville. After a win over #12 Georgia, the Vols scratched back to #25, but a loss to first-year Bama head coach Nick Saban in Tuscaloosa pushed UT out of the rankings. Five straight wins got the Vols to #14 and the SEC Championship against LSU. After losing to the eventual national champion Tigers, the #16 Vols downed #18 Wisconsin to secure their #12 ranking. Little did fans know that the #12 slot would be their highest ranking until 2016. 

2008

Preseason: #18
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #18 (preseason)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 16

The beginning of the dark years. The Vols entered the 2008 season ranked #18. An overtime loss to unranked UCLA at the Rose Bowl knocked Tennessee from the Top 25. They wouldn’t be back for six whole seasons.

2009

Preseason: #52 (Coaches’ Poll)
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #35 (Coaches’ Poll)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 16

A win over #21 South Carolina on Halloween in black Adidas jerseys was the highpoint of the season, which ended with a 37-14 loss to #12 Virginia Tech in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.

2010

Preseason: Not Ranked
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: Not Ranked
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 16

Following Lane Kiffin’s brief stint on Rocky Top, the Derek Dooley Show came to town. Tennessee would finish the year 6-6 (3-5 SEC), failing to beat any ranked teams and falling to North Carolina in the Music City Bowl.

2011

Preseason: #40 (Coaches’ Poll)
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #32 (Coaches’ Poll)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 16

In Dooley’s second season, Tennessee flirted with the “Also Receiving Votes” column of the Coaches’ Poll for a few weeks. Outside of a win over #12 (FCS) Montana, though, Tennessee faithful had little to cheer about, as the team finished 5-7 (1-7 SEC).

2012

Preseason: #41 (Coaches’ Poll)
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #23
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 15

The Derek Dooley Experiment, complete with hygiene lessons and World War II analogies, mercifully ended before the last week of the season, but not before the Vols racked up another 1-7 SEC season, beating only Kentucky under interim head coach Jim Chaney. Big wins over NC State and Georgia State had the Vols at #23, before the team suffered its annual loss to Florida in Week 3.

2013

Preseason: #50 (Coaches’ Poll)
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #43 (Coaches’ Poll)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 16

Butch Jones got a signature “Year 1” win over #11 South Carolina in Knoxville, but only managed one other SEC win, a 27-14 victory in Lexington. Early wins over Austin Peay and Western Kentucky pushed Tennessee up to #43 in the Coaches’ Poll, but they didn’t make any poll noise after that.

2014

Preseason: Not Ranked
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: Not Ranked
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 16

Tennessee managed to eek out three SEC wins against South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Kentucky, and played #12 Georgia close in Athens, but the Vols didn’t manage to earn a vote in either poll. The team did finish the year over .500 with a win over Iowa in the TaxSlayer Bowl.

2015

Preseason: #25
Final: #22
Highest Rank: #22 (final)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 5

Back in the preseason Top 25 for the first time since 2008, the Vols’ time there would be short-lived after a crushing double-overtime loss to Baker Mayfield and #19 Oklahoma. Losses to unranked Florida and Arkansas pushed UT out of the “Also Receiving Votes” column. A five-game winning streak leading into a huge 45-6 win over #12 Northwestern in the Outback Bowl led announcer Mark Jones to predict 2016 would be the year of the Volunteers. Tennessee would finish the year ranked #22, their first spot in the final poll since 2007. 

2016

Preseason: #9
Final: #24
Highest Rank: #9 (2 weeks)
Lowest Rank: #30 (Coaches’ Poll)
Weeks Unranked: 5

Mark Jones was half-correct. The first half of the 2016 season would be the year of the Volunteer. Tennessee started the year off white-hot, tallying five straight victories, including a win over #19 Florida and #25 Georgia (thanks Jauan). Despite a double-overtime loss to Texas A&M, the Vols held onto their #9 ranking going into a contest with #1 Alabama in Knoxville. A 39-point loss to the Crimson TIde, followed by a loss to unranked South Carolina in Columbia knocked Tennessee from the ranks. They would claw their way back to #24 before a loss to Vanderbilt cost them their ranking and a shot at the Sugar Bowl. The team managed to salvage a second consecutive final rank – this time #24 – with a 38-24 win over Nebraska in the Music City Bowl.

2017

Preseason: #25
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #23 (1 week)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 13

What a disaster. Ranked #25 coming into the season, Tennessee would finish 4-8 (0-8 SEC). Early wins over Georgia Tech and Indiana State moved Tennessee up to #23 in the AP Poll before a 26-20 loss to Florida on a last second touchdown pass by Feleipe Franks knocked the Vols from the rankings. A 41-0 loss to Georgia two weeks later closed the door on Tennessee’s hopes to regain their ranking. Butch Jones would be shown the door before a November 18 showdown with LSU.

2018

Preseason: Not Ranked
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: Not Ranked
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 15

Despite wins over #21 Auburn in October and #12 Kentucky in November, Tennessee failed to sniff the rankings in 2018, ending the season with a 5-7 (2-6 SEC) record, including a 38-13 loss to Vanderbilt to close the season with a whimper.

2019

Preseason: #55 (Coaches’ Poll)
Final: #35 (Coaches’ Poll)
Highest Rank: #35 (final; Coaches’ Poll)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 15

An opening week disaster against Georgia State prevented the Vols from a shot at a nine-win season. UT failed to beat a ranked team in 2019, falling to #9 Florida, #3 Georgia and #1 Alabama by a combined score of 112-30. A bowl win against Indiana garnered the Vols a few votes in the final Coaches’ Poll of the year,

2020

Preseason: #25
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #12
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 10

Facing the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic and a 10-game SEC slate, the Vols were ranked #16 before their first game due to scheduling differences. Tennessee climbed to #14 after wins over South Carolina and Missouri, but six straight losses quickly ended that. Tennessee managed to scratch out a win over Vanderbilt in December, before losing the final contest of the year to Texas A&M. 

2021

Preseason: Not Ranked
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #36 (Coaches’ Poll)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 15

Despite flashes of brilliance under first year head coach Josh Heupel, the Vols never strung together enough victories together to make much poll noise in 2021. The highlight of the year came in an upset of #18 Kentucky in Lexington. And near misses against Pittsburgh, #13 Ole Miss and Purdue gave UT fans hope for the future.

A few months ago we looked at pass distribution under Josh Heupel at UT and UCF. The big takeaway there: in spite of playing at a faster pace, the wide receiver rotation under Heupel tends to be tighter. Last season Velus Jones and Cedric Tillman had 51.9% of Tennessee’s receptions, the highest total for a UT duo in the post-Fulmer era. Numbers were similar at Central Florida.

So I kind of expected something like this for running backs as well. Tennessee had its first scrimmage yesterday, and with Len’Neth Whitehead out for the year and Lyn-J Dixon on the roster, there’s renewed interest in who will back up Jabari Small.

But once you start digging into the numbers, it’s easy to see there’s much less of a “backup” situation in Heupel’s offense.

Total Percentage of RB Carries at Tennessee (Heupel, Pruitt, Butch)

2021	Jabari Small	37.74%
2020	Eric Gray	54.90%
2019	Ty Chandler	38.46%
2018	Tim Jordan	37.61%
2017	John Kelly	61.76%
2016	Jalen Hurd	35.36%
2015	Jalen Hurd	62.39%
2014	Jalen Hurd	56.89%
2013	Rajion Neal	58.11%

In the last nine seasons, the lead back at UT got 55+% of the total RB carries five times. Jalen Hurd was on his way to making it six before he left the team in 2016. And Jim Chaney had a history of involving multiple guys, but leaned heavily on Eric Gray in his final season at UT.

Jabari Small was dinged up a couple times last year, and could’ve seen his numbers climb higher. He didn’t play against Tennessee Tech, then left the Missouri game after just three carries and missed South Carolina the next week. Perhaps closer to full strength, he had a season high 26 carries against Purdue.

There’s no shortage of excitement about Jabari Small in 2022 coming out of scrimmage one:

That dude.@SwainEvent explained on today's show why Tennessee RB Jabari Small has a chance to break out in a big way this football season.

Listen for more #Vols info here: https://t.co/YPVu883xZ2 or anywhere you listen to podcasts. pic.twitter.com/Esg0oEFE2w

— Josh and Swain (@JoshandSwain) August 9, 2022

So there’s reason to believe Small could just take off with this thing and, when combined with Hendon Hooker and Tennessee’s passing game, the UT offense is in sensational hands. But when you look at Heupel’s history, those hands have always included at least one other running back getting significantly involved, and often more than one:

(if the chart looks weird, turn your phone sideways)

Total Percentage of RB Carries under Josh Heupel, 2018-21

Year	Team	RB Carries	RB	Carries	Pct.
2021	Tennessee	371	Jabari Small	140	37.74%
			Jaylen Wright	85	22.91%
			Tiyon Evans	81	21.83%
2020	UCF	365	Greg McCrae	149	40.82%
			Otis Anderson	125	34.25%
			B. Thompson	73	20.00%
2019	UCF	418	Otis Anderson	113	27.03%
			Greg McCrae	98	23.44%
			B. Thompson	87	20.81%
			Adrian Killins	87	20.81%
2018	UCF	431	Adrian Killins	147	34.11%
			Greg McCrae	133	30.86%
			Taj McGowan	71	16.47%

Under Jeremy Pruitt and Butch Jones, the number one back got 55+% of the RB carries more often than not. Under Josh Heupel, the number one back got 40+% of the carries just once.

Maybe some of this is more carries for backups in blowouts. But even in Jabari Small’s season-high 26 carries against Purdue, Jaylen Wright still got 17 carries. The only time the Vols really rode one guy: Jabari Small had 21 carries against Ole Miss, with both Tiyon Evans and Jaylen Wright out. Marcus Pierce got two carries in the fourth quarter.

In this offense, you want your top guy to be great. But you’re still going to need at least your number two, and historically, for much more than we’re used to seeing from the number two at UT. Alvin Kamara had 29.86% of the RB carries in 2016. I don’t think the Vols have an Alvin Kamara as their backup this year. But whoever it is, history says he’s going to get a higher percentage of carries.

And we may not have a 2019 UCF scenario, where the top guy is really four guys. But again, even if Small is both great and healthy, Tennessee is going to need quality touches from its number two. History says the #2 RB matters way more than the #4 WR in this offense.

So…who’s it gonna be?

August isn’t always for the rational. Hope will thrive on campuses across the nation this month, so long as health allows. Everyone is undefeated until August 27 (Nebraska/Northwestern in Ireland! Vanderbilt at Hawaii!). The rest of us will make it until a weekend beginning in just 27 days, when the Vols will help open the festivities on Thursday night.

There is always excitement this time of year. But this one feels unusually high, especially entering a coach’s year two. We’ve had our share of those in the last 15 years; they’re usually marked by some form of, “I think we’ll be better this year, and I’m curious to see how much.” But the Vols were better last year, and by much more than we imagined play-for-play. Tennessee is 18th in Athlon’s preseason Top 25, 11th in Phil Steele’s power poll, and ninth in SP+. I’m curious to see where the Vols land when the “official” polls come out soon.

So there’s normal August excitement, and then there’s this. And this is even a bit tempered by an incredibly successful year on campus across the board: men’s basketball flirted with their best season ever in KenPom, and baseball had their best regular season ever by just about any standard. We’re not overhyping Tennessee because we’ve been hyper-focused on football for too long.

This is, for sure, “I’m ready to get hurt again,” territory. But that’s the beauty of it! Hope is dangerous! And it’s great!

And sometimes, it pays off.

Rarely in the last 15 years, to be sure. But our question for the moment is, where does the current level of optimism rank among those others? How does your current confidence compare to where it’s been? And probably most important: where should it be?

Here are 10 moments from the last 15 years when we thought we might be onto something, ranked by overall confidence. This is my list; as always, your mileage may vary. But we’d love to know where your current confidence might fall on this list.

Top 10 “We might be back!” Moments of the post-Fulmer Era

Honorable Mention: 2009 Georgia

Not included, because in October 2009 you could tell yourself that we were really only rebuilding instead of doing whatever you want to call the last 15 years.

How long did it last? Through the rest of Lane Kiffin’s first season, until it became Lane Kiffin’s only season.

10. 2012 NC State

Take an anxious off-season after the 2011 loss to Kentucky, one of the most consequential outcomes of the last 15 years. Add in Cordarrelle Patterson and mix it all together in the Georgia Dome. Tennessee’s 35-21 season opening victory over NC State featured 524 yards of offense and tantalizing possibilities.

How long did it last? Two weeks later the Vols were back in the Top 25 for the first time since preseason 2008. We took a 20-13 lead over Florida midway through the third quarter in Knoxville, then stopped a fake punt on the ensuing drive. The Vols had 1st-and-10 at the Florida 47 with 4:45 to play in the third.

That’s how long it lasted. Tyler Bray was hit with intentional grounding on the next play and the Vols punted. From there, Florida had four plays of 30+ yards the rest of the way, including touchdowns of 80 and 75 yards, putting 24 points on the board in the last 18 minutes of play. Sal Sunseri’s defense became a huge question that never got answered.

9. 2014 South Carolina

The only reason this one isn’t higher is because of what happened earlier in the 2014 season, a little further down our list. I still think this is one of the most rewatchable games of the last 15 years, signaling the arrival of Josh Dobbs as Tennessee’s full-time quarterback for the next 2.5 years with 301 through the air and 166 on the ground. And it carries far less of the “yeah, but” quality that marks some of the other games on this list because they didn’t last as long.

How long did it last? The Vols went to 4-5 with this win, and though they came up short to eventual East champs Missouri, they did get bowl eligible, then rocked Iowa in Jacksonville. So in part, this one lasted until the 2015 Oklahoma/Florida sequence.

8. 2018 Auburn

A ranked road win for Jeremy Pruitt in year one. The Vols used the underdog playbook, getting turnovers and a defensive touchdown to secure a 30-24 victory over the Tigers. Not bad for a team that had lost its previous three meetings with ranked teams by 26 points.

How long did it last? After getting rocked by Alabama, the Vols lost a close one at South Carolina. But they rebounded to beat #12 Kentucky 24-7, moving to 5-5. It felt like we were one win away from a lot of things at that point…and then we lost to Missouri by 33 and Vanderbilt by 25.

7. 2011 Cincinnati

Another highly rewatchable game, and still one of the greatest individual performances by a quarterback at UT. Tyler Bray went 34-of-41 for 401 yards and four touchdowns, and Derek Dooley’s Vols beat Butch Jones’ Bearcats 45-23.

How long did it last? The next week in Gainesville, Florida scored on their opening drive, and Justin Hunter blew out his knee on Tennessee’s. Tyler Bray broke his thumb against Georgia two weeks later.

6. 2020 Missouri

Nothing sexy about the individual win, though Eric Gray and Ty Chandler combined for 195 on the ground. But this made eight wins in a row for the Vols (four of them by one possession over Kentucky, Missouri, Indiana, and South Carolina, he said ominously in hindsight…). Due to the pandemic, the Vols were in the Top 15 for the first time since 2007.

How long did it last? At least 30 minutes at Georgia the next week. The next 30 minutes could’ve been written up to Georgia’s talent. The next week vs Kentucky could not.

5. 2014 Week of the Florida game

The 2014 Vols smashed internet darlings Utah State 38-7 in the opener. They were game at Oklahoma for a while before falling. And they almost, almost got Georgia in Athens before falling 35-32. Meanwhile, Will Muschamp was on the hot seat: 4-8 in 2013, then a three overtime survivor against Kentucky, then lost 42-21 to Alabama. The game was in Knoxville, we checkered Neyland for the first time (eight years ago, hard to believe!), third down for what, all of that. We didn’t just think we were going to win. We thought we were going to exorcise. “Every star that could possibly be aligned is burning our shade of orange,” he wrote foolishly.

How long did it last? Florida won 10-9.

4. Right Now

A lot of what’s written up there is about hearts and feelings and the alignment of stars. A lot of what’s being said right now is about power rankings and efficiency (and five star recruits!). This team beat Missouri by 38 and South Carolina by 25 last year. They already got the ranked road win. And to some degree, their version of heartbreak is somewhat rightfully defined by conversations about officiating instead of questions about management. In SP+, the 2021 Vols were the second-best Tennessee team of the last 15 years. And yet, by our old standards, these Vols haven’t done anything yet. And it’s August, and we’re prone to think a lot of things. But one of those things I think: there’s more reason to believe in Tennessee right now than at any point in the last 15 years, save three:

3. 2013 Georgia & South Carolina

A Smokey Gray almost, followed by a ranked win for Butch Jones in year one after none for Derek Dooley. In the moment, with recruiting rankings backing it up, you had more reason to believe the program was on its way than at any point since Kiffin left. And even looking back, that South Carolina team is still the best team this program has beaten in 15 years (#11 at kickoff, #4 in the final poll). We’ll make that point a lot the first time this team gets a Top 15 win.

How long did it last? Justin Worley got hurt against Alabama the next week, sending true freshman Josh Dobbs into the fray. The 2013 schedule is maybe the hardest in program history, sending Dobbs against the East champs from Missouri and the almost-national champs from Auburn. Still, I think these good vibes lasted until the Vanderbilt game, when bowl eligibility was frustratingly lost.

2. 2015 Northwestern

The clear pinnacle of good football vibes lasting a long time. When the Vols torched #15 Northwestern 45-6 in the Outback Bowl, it was our largest margin of victory over a ranked team in 25 years. And more than anything, with the Vols bringing almost everyone back, it set aside the heartbreak of early 2015, and set our sights squarely on championship aspirations for 2016. This was a fun eight months to be a Tennessee Vol.

How long did it last? See below, but I can assure you it stopped being as much fun about 75% of the way through the Appalachian State game.

1. 2016 Florida/Georgia

The clear pinnacle of the last 15 years, a height matched only by its fall. Six years later, the “yeah, but” of two otherwise incredibly rewatchable games is an inescapable part of their story. Still, these games are the champ until Tennessee beats someone more meaningful. And when the Vols do finally escape the wilderness, perhaps we can look back on these two weeks much more fondly, and appreciate them for what they are.

How long did it last? There was enough grace for 351570 turnovers the next week at Texas A&M, and even facing one of the best defenses of all time from Alabama. But the loss at South Carolina cost the Vols the East, and the loss at Vanderbilt cost the Vols the Sugar Bowl. And that meant the cost of losing was ultimately higher than the joy of winning, leaving 2016 like many other years on this list: some great individual moments that could never quite be strung together enough to make the memories of great seasons.

Where would you put right now on this list?

Outside of the tempo-infused stats, the best thing Tennessee did last year was Hendon Hooker’s three interceptions on 303 pass attempts. That number is even more impressive considering how often Hooker was sacked.

Last season the Vols allowed 44 sacks, 124th nationally. And this too wasn’t just a function of Tennessee playing fast: 44 sacks with 376 total passing attempts (Hooker + Milton) means Vol quarterbacks went down on 10.48% of passing plays. That’s the highest total in the post-Fulmer era:

Tennessee Sack Rate Allowed 2009-2021

Year	Sacks Allowed	Passing Att	Sack %
2021	44	376	10.48%
2020	29	285	9.24%
2019	21	360	5.51%
2018	23	297	7.19%
2017	35	319	9.89%
2016	25	379	6.19%
2015	24	371	6.08%
2014	43	453	8.67%
2013	15	344	4.18%
2012	8	477	1.65%
2011	18	400	4.31%
2010	41	419	8.91%
2009	18	401	4.30%

If safety in the passing game was Tennessee’s greatest strength, keeping quarterbacks upright is Tennessee’s greatest area for improvement. And just a little progress can go a very long way.

The Vols lost Cade Mays to the NFL, but bring back everyone else up front. Figuring out who wins the tackle spot opposite Darnell Wright will be a huge piece of the puzzle in fall camp.

Sacks were costly in some of Tennessee’s biggest moments last year. Before the 4th-and-24 against Ole Miss, the Vols had 1st-and-10 at midfield. But a sack and a holding penalty on consecutive plays put the Vols in the aforementioned hole. With a chance to put Kentucky away late, Hooker was sacked twice from 2nd-and-Goal at the 5, ultimately leading to a missed field goal. Driving into Georgia territory late in the third quarter, a pair of sacks ended Tennessee’s chance to keep the game within reach.

Good news: this isn’t a problem Josh Heupel’s teams had at UCF. It isn’t a function of the offense with quarterbacks holding the ball longer than usual, etc. Tennessee struggled in this department in 2020 as well, and hasn’t had a sack rate lower than 5% since the 2013 line that sent Ja’Wuan James and Zach Fulton to the NFL.

For all the good – and the great! – Tennessee’s offense did last year, there’s an opportunity for even more improvement here that could go a long way in keeping drives alive, producing even more points and even more separation. How much better will Tennessee’s pass protection be in 2022?

This is Monday. Next Monday is August. We’re close.

In these final few weeks before kickoff, we’re taking a look at the things Tennessee did very best…and very worst in 2021. There are places for celebration, as well as a moment to ask if we’ll see such greatness again this year. And there are places for obvious improvement, where even a little difference can go a long way.

Let’s start with a word about tempo. The Vols led college football in plays per minute and points per minute, two of many facts whose solidification was lost in the immediate aftermath of the Purdue game. Instead of getting to talk about historic records falling, we got to talk about referees, everyone’s favorite topic. Tennessee was also 127th nationally in defensive snaps allowed, and trailed only Michigan State among teams playing 13 games. So there are plenty of Tennessee’s raw numbers that require that caveat: more snaps = more numbers, etc.

Setting pace aside, the thing Tennessee did very best last season: Hendon Hooker threw just three interceptions on 303 passing attempts.

Only Hooker and Bo Nix had three or fewer interceptions on 300+ passing attempts in college football last year; Nix gets the slight edge and the new SEC record with three picks on 323 attempts. Drop it to 250+ attempts, and it’s still a list with only those two, Dequan Finn at Toledo, and Brendon Lewis at Colorado on it.

Hooker was able to take down several Tennessee passing records last season, in part due to what Josh Heupel’s offense sets up for its quarterback. We looked at some of these going into the Music City Bowl, where Hooker easily finished off the school record for yards per attempt. He stayed just north of Erik Ainge for the single-season completion percentage record.

But the most impressive number is those three interceptions. That’s less than one percent of his total passing attempts. And according to the 2021 media guide, the previous UT and SEC record was held by the guy now at #2 on this list:

Tennessee QB Interception Percentage, 1992-2021

Year	QB	ATT	INT	PCT
2021	Hooker	303	3	0.99%
1995	Manning	380	4	1.05%
2018	Guarantano	246	3	1.22%
2015	Dobbs	344	5	1.45%
1992	Shuler	224	4	1.79%
2007	Ainge	519	10	1.93%
2003	C. Clausen	412	9	2.18%
1998	Martin	267	6	2.25%
2002	C. Clausen	310	7	2.26%
1997	Manning	477	11	2.31%
2020	Guarantano	166	4	2.41%
2011	Bray	247	6	2.43%
2001	C. Clausen	354	9	2.54%
2006	Ainge	348	9	2.59%
2012	Bray	451	12	2.66%
1993	Shuler	285	8	2.81%
2005	R. Clausen	209	6	2.87%
1999	Martin	305	9	2.95%
2008	Crompton	167	5	2.99%
2000	C. Clausen	194	6	3.09%
2019	Guarantano	257	8	3.11%
1996	Manning	380	12	3.16%
2014	Worley	252	8	3.17%
2016	Dobbs	357	12	3.36%
2009	Crompton	384	13	3.39%
2013	Worley	196	8	4.08%
1994	Manning	144	6	4.17%
2017	Dormady	137	6	4.38%
2010	Bray	224	10	4.46%
2004	Ainge	198	9	4.55%

Anytime we’re breaking Peyton Manning records, we’re doing something right. And you’ll also notice the bottom of the list belongs to true freshmen, including Manning as well. More recently, you’ll note one of the big off-season conversations from 2015 to 2016: will they let Dobbs throw it downfield more? The 2015 Vols were more content to bludgeon, and with Dobbs + Hurd + Kamara it wasn’t a bad plan. But Tennessee and Mike DeBord did take more chances the following year, in part because they had to with defensive difficulties. The Vols turned that into more big plays, but also seven more interceptions.

With Heupel’s offense, there isn’t much concern about getting even more aggressive. That’s part of what makes Hooker’s year so impressive. And finding that explosiveness while minimizing risk is an incredible combo, one Heupel was able to duplicate at UCF:

• 2018: McKenzie Milton 2.08% (6 INTs on 289 attempts)
• 2019: Dillon Gabriel 1.76% (7 INTs on 398 attempts)
• 2020: Dillon Gabriel 0.97% (4 INTs on 413 attempts)

That last number, you’ll note, is even a smidge better than Hooker’s.

Is #5 going to throw more than three interceptions this year? I mean, the starting point is so low it’s hard to take the under. But if the Vols can continue to operate with this level of precision + explosiveness in the passing game? That’s a clear path to more success, and perhaps to individual honor for Hooker.

And it’s even more impressive considering the thing Tennessee was very worst at, which we’ll look at next.

Here’s something that caught my eye from media days this week:

Cole Cubelic of SEC Network told me in interview that Tennessee might be third best team in SEC. We'll play that interview later today in SportsTalk. Also Roman Harper of SEC Network said UT might be SEC's third best team and maybe Alabama's toughest opponent.

— Jimmy Hyams (@JimmyHyams) July 19, 2022

One thing about this conversation: the team that should be the consensus “third best” team in the league, Texas A&M, isn’t on our schedule. So to some degree, it doesn’t matter whether you think the Vols or Aggies is better on December 1, unless we’re both in Atlanta.

But this conversation could come into play when it’s time to consider postseason destinations.

Bowls are always a fickle way to judge the success of one’s season; there’s so little control Tennessee or anyone else has if you find yourself in the SEC’s group of six bowls (“Outback”, Gator, Music City, Liberty, Texas, and Las Vegas this year, alternating seasons with the Belk/Mayo). The Vols haven’t made it north of this tier since playing in the Cotton Bowl in 2004; with that game now in the CFP rotation, the Citrus Bowl in 2001 is really the most recent comparison.

Two of the most straightforward ways to identify success – bowl destination and division championship – could both look quite different in a couple years. But for now, getting to the “Outback” (one appearance in the last 15 years) or the Citrus (none in the last 21 years) would be a clear indicator of a successful season for Tennessee.

And if the Vols are really the third best team in the SEC? They could go even higher than that.

How good do you have to be to make the Sugar Bowl?

We’re eight years in with the College Football Playoff. Every three years, the Sugar Bowl hosts a national semifinal. The other two years, including this fall, New Orleans gets the highest-ranked SEC team that isn’t in the semifinals. In 2017 and 2021, the league got two teams into the semifinals; I’m sure many preseason projections for this fall will put Alabama and Georgia there again.

So, historically speaking, who makes the Sugar Bowl as the SEC’s designated team?

• 2015: Ole Miss (9-3, #12 CFP poll)
• 2016: Auburn (8-4, #17 CFP poll)
• 2018: Georgia (11-2, #6 CFP poll, lost in Atlanta)
• 2019: Georgia (11-2, #5 CFP poll, lost in Atlanta)
• 2021: Ole Miss (10-2, #8 CFP poll)

We know that 2016 story well, when the Vols were a win at Vanderbilt away from making it themselves at what would’ve been 9-3. As we’ll see, that season itself was an outlier, with everyone who wasn’t Alabama finishing with at least four losses. But in general, if you get to 9-3 or better? You’re going to come in for a nice landing:

What happens to SEC teams who finish at least 9-3?

• 2021: Alabama (12-1, CFP), Georgia (12-1, CFP), Ole Miss (10-2, Sugar), Kentucky (9-3, Citrus)
• 2020: Alabama (11-0, CFP), Georgia (7-2, Peach), Florida (8-3, Cotton), Texas A&M (8-1, Orange)
• 2019: LSU (13-0, CFP), Georgia (11-2, Sugar), Florida (10-2, Orange), Alabama (10-2, Citrus), Auburn (9-3, Outback)
• 2018: Alabama (12-0, CFP), LSU (9-3, Fiesta), Georgia (11-2, Sugar), Florida (9-3, Peach), Kentucky (9-3, Citrus)
• 2017: Alabama (11-1, CFP), Georgia (12-1, CFP), Auburn (10-3, Peach), LSU (9-3, Citrus)
• 2016: Alabama (13-0, CFP)
• 2015: Alabama (12-1, CFP), Ole Miss (9-3, Sugar), Florida (10-3, Citrus), Georgia (10-3, Gator), LSU (9-3, Texas)
• 2014: Alabama (12-1, CFP), Mississippi State (10-2, Orange), Ole Miss (9-3, Peach), Missouri (10-3, Citrus), Georgia (9-3, Belk)

In eight years of the playoffs, 33 SEC teams have had three or fewer losses on selection Sunday. Of that group, only four made something “less” than the Citrus Bowl. And only 2019 Auburn went down that path in the last six years.

So from a Tennessee perspective, not only would a 9-3 regular season give you the best record in Knoxville in the last 15 years, it should send you to a bowl destination of Citrus or better. And depending on what happens at the tippy-top of the league, it could send you somewhere even better.

If we again see Alabama and Georgia both in the playoff, could a 9-3 Tennessee have the league’s next-best resume? It’s on this level that games like Texas A&M/Miami, Arkansas/Cincinnati, and without question Tennessee/Pitt come into play.

So on the surface, it may seem like it doesn’t matter if you think Tennessee is better than Texas A&M (or Arkansas!). The Vols are good enough to first pursue the idea of success through the lens of giving themselves a chance to compete for the SEC East title.

But beneath all of that, keep your eyes on the bowl projections. A 9-3 finish and Orlando for the Vols? One or both of those would automatically give you the best season in 15+ years.