We get as much mileage as we can out of the “picked to finish 13th in the SEC” narrative, but that story really changed as soon as the Vols beat Purdue. That was 91 days ago. Tennessee then increased its tournament profile in the most boring way possible: competitive losses to Villanova and North Carolina, wins over everyone else in the non-conference. It looks like that will now include one additional victory over a tournament team (NC State), but at the time there was no additional earth-shattering moment after Purdue. The Vols beat all the teams they should beat, and almost beat two teams better than them.
But after a brief set of questions following near misses with Arkansas and Auburn to open SEC play, the Vols provided answers almost every night. Tennessee won nine of its next ten games in what might be the deepest SEC of all-time, beating Texas A&M and sweeping Kentucky. They won four road games, losing only at Missouri by four. It was, and is, the sort of streak that creates an expectation and then lives up to it.
Meanwhile, Auburn did basically the same thing, which kept the SEC title just out of reach. Tennessee’s RPI has hovered between 10-20 for six weeks. Even though it seems strange to say with that whole picked-13th past, Tennessee has been this good for a while now.
So good for so long, in fact, we flirted with one-seed talk the same week we won at Rupp Arena. Did the Vols fly a little too close to the sun? We’ll find out in March. But a 28-point loss at Alabama and what should be the season’s first loss to a non-tournament team at Georgia both backed the Vols down the bracket, and raised questions for the first time in almost two months. (By the way, the #nobadlosses still holds up – Georgia wasn’t a “good loss”, but the Dawgs are 66th in RPI in 70th in KenPom. That’s an NIT team.)
A team with Tennessee’s profile – consistent all year but an elite win or two shy from longer one-seed conversations – feels like a baseball team seven games up in the wild card in early August. There’s still work to do, and it sucks you can’t win the division, but this team is going to the playoffs with every chance to advance. That’s the end result, and you know it a few miles away from the bracket. A team like that can get lost in the grind for a minute.
Is that what’s happened to Tennessee these last few days, or are there legitimate concerns? Here with some answers are the Florida Gators.
Florida runs a particularly efficient offense: shoot threes, make free throws, don’t turn it over. Virginia Tech transfer Jalen Hudson and Rice transfer Egor Koulechov joined Chris Chiozza and KeVaughn Allen in this guard-heavy lineup, and these dudes will let it fly. The Gators are fourth in the SEC in threes attempted and 70th nationally in three-point percentage; Hudson shoots 39.5% and Koulechov 42%. They shoot 73.8% from the line, and most of all, they take great care of the basketball. Florida is fourth nationally in turnover percentage, giving the ball away on just 14.3% of its possessions.
Florida has also been a tad unlucky, especially when it comes to opponent free throw shooting. They lost to Duke by three when the Blue Devils went 19-of-20 at the line, and at Vanderbilt by three when the Commodores went 22-of-24. Ole Miss, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida State all beat the Gators while shooting better than 81% at the line.
Much of Tennessee’s focus right now is on offensive production and rebounding, but Tennessee’s most consistent weakness has been stopping great guards. Florida provides another opportunity for Rick Barnes’s squad to show their work.
On the other side of this one is a road trip through the state of Mississippi and another shot at Georgia in Knoxville. It’s the last test against a tournament team before the SEC Tournament, and will either cast our vision back toward the bracket with a win, or deeper into what makes this team tick with a loss.
9:00 PM ET, but hey, we made it to ESPN2! Have I mentioned we still have the television schedule of a team picked to finish 13th?
Go Vols.
