Tennessee at Mississippi State Preview

Five of Tennessee’s first six conference games were against what should be NCAA Tournament teams. We thought there would be only two others after that, three if Alabama got its act together. But here, in the final week of the regular season, the league has one more surprise in store.

Mississippi State played a bunch of nobodies in an 8-0 start, then went to Cincinnati and lost by 15. A 2-5 start in league play made them an afterthought; they could still aspire to the program’s first NIT appearance since 2012.

But then came four wins in a row, including home victories over Missouri and Alabama. They lost the return trip to CoMo in overtime, then lost by one at Vanderbilt. But they’ve since won three straight, including a huge 12-point win at Texas A&M and an overtime victory against South Carolina. Now the Bulldogs are 21-8 (9-7), 50th in KenPom and 62nd in RPI. This is very much a bubble team, which means this is very much a game the Bulldogs need.

What Mississippi State does well:

  • Defensive Efficiency: MSU is 28th in KenPom’s defensive ratings, 35th in effective field goal percentage allowed. They’ve been good at this all year.
  • Getting hot at the right time: Five of MSU’s six highest-scoring games in league play have been in February. They actually lost scoring 80+ against Missouri (in overtime) and Vanderbilt, then put 79 on Ole Miss and 93 on Texas A&M on the road. They’re balanced at their best: Quinndary Weatherspoon scores 14.7 per game and brother Nick adds 11.1, but increased production from Tyson Carter and Abdul Ado has fueled their most recent run.
  • Shot blocking: Ado is 6’11” and 55th nationally in block percentage, and 6’10” Aric Holman is 73rd in the same stat. MSU sometimes puts both on the floor at the same time, which could create difficult match-ups and opportunities for Tennessee on the block.

What Tennessee can do to win:

  • Encourage MSU to shoot threes: The Bulldogs have hit better than 40% from the arc just five times this year. Mississippi State shoots 31.2% from the arc on the year (333rd of 351 nationally) and 30.8% in conference play (13th).
  • Don’t be afraid to defend aggressively: The Bulldogs also suffer at the charity stripe, 68.6% on the year (277th) and 69.9% in conference play (10th). They’re not particularly good at getting to the line either. I don’t think it’s in Tennessee’s best interests to do anything to encourage Grant Williams to foul more often, but the rest of the lineup? Might be a good night to get up in their face.
  • Take especially good care of the basketball: The Bulldogs force a steal on 9.8% of opponent possessions, 84th nationally. And they’re just as good at not turning it over themselves, which means possessions will be especially valuable. Mississippi State is 14-2 when forcing 13+ turnovers, but just 7-6 when forcing 12 or less.

The Bulldogs have lost just once at home this season, to Auburn on January 13. South Carolina just took them to overtime and Alabama lost by just four earlier this month. They also have not faced Kentucky, Florida, or Texas A&M in Starkville. Will the Bulldogs play their way onto the right side of the bubble? Or will Tennessee stay in the race for the SEC title and firm up its chances for a two or three seed?

Early game woo! 7:00 PM ET, SEC Network.

Per VolQuest Report: Trey Smith Out for Spring

Good football news has been hard to come by in Knoxville the past few weeks, and Saturday brought another blow as VolQuest.com’s Austin Price and Brent Hubbs reported all-star sophomore offensive lineman Trey Smith will miss spring drills to deal with a “medical issue.”

Fortunately for the Vols, it doesn’t appear to be something that will keep Smith out for the 2018 season, but this is not good news for a UT team that needs Smith to take a pivotal step forward.

The 6’6″, 320-pound former top-ranked recruit emerged easily as UT’s best player on the offensive line a season ago, having the ability to play a lot of different positions. It was not uncommon for him to maul everybody he went against.

Though Smith needed to become more consistent, he was well on his way to being an All-SEC and All-American performer. Now, at the very least, Smith will have to knock off the rust when fall drills come around.

If there is a silver lining to this news, it’s that Tennessee will have the opportunity to get its newcomers as many reps as possible. Though JUCO offensive tackle Jahmir Johnson won’t be enrolled early — something that would have helped him and the Vols considerably — freshmen Jerome Carvin and Ollie Lane are. They will need to improve dramatically along with incumbent players Marcus Tatum and Drew Richmond.

When Smith returns, hopefully he will be at full-tilt. If so, the extra time and attention for the youngsters may wind up being a good thing. But in an all-important offseason, make no mistake: This is bad news for Smith and Tennessee as they try to perform for a new coaching staff and improve as a unit.

Riley Locklear, K’Rojhn Calbert, Devante Brooks, Ryan Johnson and others must become viable candidates to be SEC-caliber linemen, something they’ve yet to prove. With their leader on the sideline now for an undetermined amount of time, that becomes even more crucial.

Tennessee 73 Ole Miss 65 – Mostly Good with Room for Improvement

The Vols came out firing in Oxford, building a 16-4 lead in the first six minutes behind four three-pointers. The lead swelled to 29-9, and was still 15 points at halftime.

But the first three minutes of the second half were unkind to Tennessee…or, more appropriately, Tennessee wasn’t kind to itself. Four turnovers in those first three minutes sparked an 11-0 Rebel run, cutting the lead to four.

Tennessee’s defense righted the ship, holding the Rebels scoreless for the next four minutes while the Vols built the lead back to nine. UT would eventually push it to 21, was still up 14 with two minutes to play, and won by eight. The Vols led by double digits for almost 30 minutes. There were only a few truly uncomfortable moments.

What can Tennessee learn from those moments? I think sometimes the offense seems to get stuck in the space between feeding the ball and forcing the ball to Grant Williams. Tennessee’s best basketball plays through #2, and at times the Vols can get him the ball cleanly and let him do his thing (as was the case against Florida). At other times defenses swarm and deny him the ball, and the Vols can clearly fall back on good looks this creates. But when the defense doesn’t show its hand, occasionally the Vols learn the hard way not to force the issue. Many of Tennessee’s turnovers come from ill-advised passes into the post.

The Vols adjusted; again, credit the defense first for stopping the bleeding before the offense got its footing. And credit Admiral Schofield, who gets much of his offense outside the go inside to Grant/kick it out for three routine. Today he had a career-high 25 points on 9-of-14 shooting, along with seven rebounds. While Williams struggled with just six points on the day, Schofield proved the Vols can still win comfortably. Tennessee also got big minutes from Derrick Walker coming back from an ankle injury; he finished with five points and seven rebounds. Walker got some of Kyle Alexander’s duties today, posting up in similar fashion to Williams and executing well.

Ole Miss helped by shooting 1-of-23 from the arc. But despite their struggles early in the second half, Tennessee still finished with 20 assists on 25 made baskets, the fifth time this season the Vols had an assist percentage of 80% or better (and the second time against the Rebels).

The Vols go to 21-7 (11-5), and could lock up a double bye in the SEC Tournament by the end of the day. It’s the best regular season win total since 2010, and they can tie that Elite Eight squad at 23-7 with a pair of wins next week.

Go Vols.

Rick Barnes named a Naismith Coach of the Year semifinalist

The Atlanta Tipoff Club announced the 10 semifinalists for the Werner Ladder Naismith Trophy for Men’s College Coach of the Year today, and Tennessee’s Rick Barnes is one of the 10.

Every Vols fan already knows the talking points here, namely that Barnes’ team was picked to finish 13th of 14 teams in the preseason SEC poll and has instead led his team to a 20-7 record and second place in the SEC standings at this point. The Vols are currently 11th in RPI and 15th in KenPom and have been in the Top 25 for 12 straight weeks. Along the way, they’ve beaten Purdue (10th in RPI) and swept Kentucky (16th), and all but one of their losses have come to teams in the Top 40 of the RPI. The other loss came to Georgia on the road, and the Bulldogs are currently 70th in RPI.

Other semifinalists include the following:

  • Texas Tech’s Chris Beard;
  • Virginia’s Tony Bennett;
  • Clemson’s Brad Brownell;
  • Cincinnati’s Mick Cronin;
  • Ohio State’s Chris Holtmann;
  • Xavier’s Chris Mack;
  • Purdue’s Matt Painter;
  • Auburn’s Bruce Pearl; and
  • Villanova’s Jay Wright.

That list will be whittled down to four finalists on March 15, and the winner will be announced on April 1st.

The SEC Looks Even Deeper at the Finish Line

The things we’ve spent all year hoping were true for the SEC are about to be fully realized.

The league record for NCAA Tournament teams is six. Eight are in the most recent Bracket Matrix, and Mississippi State refuses to remove themselves from the conversation to make nine. And it shouldn’t be eight or nine sweating it out: seven of the eight teams currently in the matrix field are a top eight seed.

We began to see this last year, when the four of the league’s five tournament teams were top eight seeds. That hadn’t happened since 2007. This year, if a handful of teams stay on the right side of an 8/9 match-up, we could see twice that many be the higher seed in the first round.

The conversation sometimes drifts to, “Yeah, but there’s no elite team.” I think this is in part because the SEC’s version of elite has been a championship-caliber Kentucky or Florida team for the last decade. The last non-UK/UF team from this league to pull off a one or two seed in the NCAA Tournament was Tennessee 10 years ago. Bruce Pearl might get there again this season. And only Texas A&M two years ago has earned a three seed outside of Kentucky and Florida in this decade. The Vols still have every opportunity to join that list this season.

So no, Auburn and Tennessee won’t be confused for the best of John Calipari and Billy Donovan heading into the tournament. But what the Vols and Tigers are doing is still better than what any other SEC program has done in the last ten years. And they’re doing it in a far deeper league.

Here’s a look at the post-expansion SEC the last six years. (Note: if the formatting is weird on your phone, try viewing it in landscape.)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
NCAA Teams 3 3 5 3 5 8*
Top 8 Seeds 1 2 2 2 4 7*
KenPom Top 25 2 3 1 3 3 3
KenPom Top 50 3 4 7 4 5 9
KenPom Top 100 9 9 11 11 12 14

(* – projected bids from the Bracket Matrix)

When Missouri and Texas A&M joined the league in 2012-13, the SEC was at its lowest point of this century. But thanks to changes in coaching and scheduling, now in 2018 the league is at its highest point of this century.

Along with an almost-certain record for tournament bids, the basement and the middle are both significantly stronger. In 2013 it wasn’t just five teams outside the KenPom Top 100; three of them were between 197-256. Even last year, truly terrible seasons from Missouri (156 in KenPom) and LSU (172) saw both teams go 2-16 in league play. Two coaching changes later and every team in the league has at least five conference wins with three games to play.

And now the crowd is in the middle. Behind Auburn and Tennessee are six teams at 8-7 in league play, plus LSU at 7-8, plus Texas A&M at 6-9 but almost certainly still headed for the dance floor. Teams like Georgia and South Carolina should find their way to the NIT. And, for the first time, all 14 teams are in the Top 100 in KenPom.

There are still three games left, plenty of time for positioning in such a crowded field. But Tennessee has already earned tremendous praise for getting this far in such a deep league. Earning a double bye in the SEC Tournament is a significant accomplishment. The Vols and the league have much to be proud of.

 

Gameday Today: Vols-Gators roundup, Fulmer and Finebaum rubber-neck the last decade

Vols-Gators

It wasn’t especially pretty for much of the game, but Tennessee beat the Florida Gators last night 62-57, restoring confidence in the team and its best player.

Grant Williams, having been publicly called out by his coach earlier in the week, responded by refinding himself and putting up 23 points, much of it a beautiful exception to the “wasn’t especially pretty” opener up there.

Jordan Bone, too, responded to Rick Barnes’ pleading for him to be more aggressive by doing just that.

Highlights:

Highlights with commentary from the SEC Network:

Barnes’ surprising post-game press conference. Why surprising? Because he actually spends some time praising his team. Really. Proof:

Grant Williams in the hot seat:

And here’s a link to Grant Williams on the post-game radio show (sorry, it’s not embeddable) with Bob and Bert talking about losing at Catan.

Phillip Fulmer on Paul Finebaum

Paul Finebaum had The Papa on his radio show to discuss Jeremy Pruitt and to further rubber-neck the wreckage of the last decade on Rocky Top. Here’s what Fulmer had to say about the latter:

“It’s just a series of bad decisions that ended up being the issue. We had four presidents in six years. There was no continuity on campus. And all of a sudden, instead of everybody communicating and everybody trusting each other and everybody working together to an end like you see at the programs at the highest level now, it became a program struggle. And then a coach would come in. Kiffin left quick, and Dooley didn’t stay very long. And it was just a constant flow of change.

“You really have to understand the culture of any place that you go, and I don’t think the people that came in for the most part [did]. Butch Jones tried to, but to be at the championship level, you’ve got to communicate, you’ve got to trust each other, and everybody has got to work together. And we didn’t have that for seven, eight or nine years around here. It’s better now. It’s much better now.”

And what did Fulmer say about Pruitt? Video:

Other tidbits

We already knew that Tennessee had hired Chris Weinke as its new running backs coach, but now it’s official.

The Lady Vols travel to Florida tonight to take on the Gators at 7:00 p.m. The game’s on SECN+, meaning online only.

Vince Ferrara’s done a ton of great compilation work on the talent on Tennessee’s 2018 roster.

Tennessee 62 Florida 57 – Back to Business

It may not have been the most aesthetically pleasing win of the year, but Tennessee’s 62-57 victory over Florida provided validation on two important points.

One: the Vols handled Florida’s elite guards. The Gators shot 35% from the floor, and 57 points is their second-lowest total on the year. Chiozza finished with a flurry for 11 points and 9 assists, but Koulechov was 3-for-10 and KeVaughn Allen went 0-for-3. It came at the expense of 13 offensive rebounds, but Tennessee relentlessly ran at Florida on the arc, and the Gators hit just 6-of-24.

Teams with great guards have gotten the best of Tennessee several times this season. But tonight, the Vols defended really well for most of the game, and made sure Florida’s penetration didn’t get the best of them. Bone, Turner, and Daniel combined for just 14 points (22.5% of the total, which is still in the sweet spot). But they did a good job defending against solid competition, which bodes well for this team in March.

And the rest of the offense was more than covered by tonight’s second point of validation.

Two: Grant Williams is still a bad man. Coming off his worst game of the season at Georgia, Williams ate Florida’s guard-heavy lineup alive. Despite being burdened with foul trouble, Williams was 8-of-13 from the floor and 7-of-8 at the line for 23 points, along with six rebounds.

The Vols were up 10 with five minutes to play, but Florida kept attacking. Williams responded with Tennessee’s next seven points, keeping the Vols up multiple possessions. And particularly tonight, it didn’t seem to matter where he caught the ball on the floor. He just went right at an undersized defense that had no answers. The most important question when we get to March, especially with increased confidence in Tennessee’s backcourt defense, is what kind of match-ups will Williams see in the bracket. The Vols are good enough to win even when facing teams that do have some kind of answer for him. But Williams is good enough to just take over if teams don’t.

Auburn just keeps winning, but the Vols are now two games up on the six teams tied for third place. A couple of those somebodies are going to play on Thursday in the SEC Tournament. Tennessee is really close to making sure it won’t be them.

This win restored confidence in what the Vols are doing and in their best player, and bolstered it in response to their greatest weakness. Tennessee can shoot threes better than they did tonight, but this win is another reminder that they can do just that even when those shots aren’t falling. And it adds to a resume that should keep the Vols among the top four seeds in both the SEC and the Bracket Matrix with three regular season games to play.

Go Vols. Well done.

Tennessee Vols vs. Florida Gators: game time, TV channel, and game thread

Tennessee, hoping to pull it all together against some great guards and the last tournament team on their regular season schedule, host the Florida Gators tonight at Thompson-Boling. The game tips at 9:00 and will be televised on ESPN2. Online, you can catch it at WatchESPN.

See you in the comments below.

Go Vols!

 

Gameday Today: Vols-Gators, tournament percentages, and Montario’s spin move

Hoops

Tennessee basketball hosts the Florida Gators at 9:00 tonight at Thompson-Boling Arena. It will be the Vols’ last regular season game against a tournament-bound team, and the result will likely determine whether we turn our attention back to seeding or continue searching for the cause of that wailing and gnashing sensation.

What’s caused the minor funk recently?

Kyle Alexander says the team is still adjusting to being an “opportunity” for other teams at this time of year, meaning everybody wants their pelt and the team isn’t quite used to that yet.

Rick Barnes, though, is focused more on the tangible, saying the difference in his team the past three games is shooting percentage, rebounding, and unforced turnovers. He also is pulling his hair out while wondering why Jordan Bone won’t push the ball in transition.

All that said, a prediction machine has run 50,000 simulations and concluded that Tennessee is the projected 4+ seed with the best chance to make the Final Four. So, best-looking Cinderella? Or do 4-seeds not qualify for Cinderella status? Regardless, their chances to reach the second round, Sweet 16, Elite 8, Final Four, title game, and the championship podium are, according to this thing, 84%, 53.4%, 26.5%, 12.2%, 3%, and .9% respectively. So, over 50% chance to make it past the first week and a decent shot to go a bit further. Sounds about right.

Football

SEC Country says to expect a few more football commitments over the summer this year due to a new rule that allows rising seniors to take official visits during that time.

Jeremy Pruitt is making Memphis a priority in recruiting and also bringing in the big guns (Peyton Manning, Phillip Fulmer, and David Cutcliffe) for his first coaching clinic as a Vol.

Baseball

Freshman Zach Daniels’ grand slam in the third inning last night against Lipscomb helped the Vols to an 8-5 win.

VFLs

Who else is glad to see Montario Hardesty back on campus? That spin move against South Carolina in the pumpkin uni is still the best I’ve ever seen.