Tennessee 62 Florida 57 – Back to Business

It may not have been the most aesthetically pleasing win of the year, but Tennessee’s 62-57 victory over Florida provided validation on two important points.

One: the Vols handled Florida’s elite guards. The Gators shot 35% from the floor, and 57 points is their second-lowest total on the year. Chiozza finished with a flurry for 11 points and 9 assists, but Koulechov was 3-for-10 and KeVaughn Allen went 0-for-3. It came at the expense of 13 offensive rebounds, but Tennessee relentlessly ran at Florida on the arc, and the Gators hit just 6-of-24.

Teams with great guards have gotten the best of Tennessee several times this season. But tonight, the Vols defended really well for most of the game, and made sure Florida’s penetration didn’t get the best of them. Bone, Turner, and Daniel combined for just 14 points (22.5% of the total, which is still in the sweet spot). But they did a good job defending against solid competition, which bodes well for this team in March.

And the rest of the offense was more than covered by tonight’s second point of validation.

Two: Grant Williams is still a bad man. Coming off his worst game of the season at Georgia, Williams ate Florida’s guard-heavy lineup alive. Despite being burdened with foul trouble, Williams was 8-of-13 from the floor and 7-of-8 at the line for 23 points, along with six rebounds.

The Vols were up 10 with five minutes to play, but Florida kept attacking. Williams responded with Tennessee’s next seven points, keeping the Vols up multiple possessions. And particularly tonight, it didn’t seem to matter where he caught the ball on the floor. He just went right at an undersized defense that had no answers. The most important question when we get to March, especially with increased confidence in Tennessee’s backcourt defense, is what kind of match-ups will Williams see in the bracket. The Vols are good enough to win even when facing teams that do have some kind of answer for him. But Williams is good enough to just take over if teams don’t.

Auburn just keeps winning, but the Vols are now two games up on the six teams tied for third place. A couple of those somebodies are going to play on Thursday in the SEC Tournament. Tennessee is really close to making sure it won’t be them.

This win restored confidence in what the Vols are doing and in their best player, and bolstered it in response to their greatest weakness. Tennessee can shoot threes better than they did tonight, but this win is another reminder that they can do just that even when those shots aren’t falling. And it adds to a resume that should keep the Vols among the top four seeds in both the SEC and the Bracket Matrix with three regular season games to play.

Go Vols. Well done.

Tennessee Vols vs. Florida Gators: game time, TV channel, and game thread

Tennessee, hoping to pull it all together against some great guards and the last tournament team on their regular season schedule, host the Florida Gators tonight at Thompson-Boling. The game tips at 9:00 and will be televised on ESPN2. Online, you can catch it at WatchESPN.

See you in the comments below.

Go Vols!

 

Gameday Today: Vols-Gators, tournament percentages, and Montario’s spin move

Hoops

Tennessee basketball hosts the Florida Gators at 9:00 tonight at Thompson-Boling Arena. It will be the Vols’ last regular season game against a tournament-bound team, and the result will likely determine whether we turn our attention back to seeding or continue searching for the cause of that wailing and gnashing sensation.

What’s caused the minor funk recently?

Kyle Alexander says the team is still adjusting to being an “opportunity” for other teams at this time of year, meaning everybody wants their pelt and the team isn’t quite used to that yet.

Rick Barnes, though, is focused more on the tangible, saying the difference in his team the past three games is shooting percentage, rebounding, and unforced turnovers. He also is pulling his hair out while wondering why Jordan Bone won’t push the ball in transition.

All that said, a prediction machine has run 50,000 simulations and concluded that Tennessee is the projected 4+ seed with the best chance to make the Final Four. So, best-looking Cinderella? Or do 4-seeds not qualify for Cinderella status? Regardless, their chances to reach the second round, Sweet 16, Elite 8, Final Four, title game, and the championship podium are, according to this thing, 84%, 53.4%, 26.5%, 12.2%, 3%, and .9% respectively. So, over 50% chance to make it past the first week and a decent shot to go a bit further. Sounds about right.

Football

SEC Country says to expect a few more football commitments over the summer this year due to a new rule that allows rising seniors to take official visits during that time.

Jeremy Pruitt is making Memphis a priority in recruiting and also bringing in the big guns (Peyton Manning, Phillip Fulmer, and David Cutcliffe) for his first coaching clinic as a Vol.

Baseball

Freshman Zach Daniels’ grand slam in the third inning last night against Lipscomb helped the Vols to an 8-5 win.

VFLs

Who else is glad to see Montario Hardesty back on campus? That spin move against South Carolina in the pumpkin uni is still the best I’ve ever seen.

Tennessee vs Florida Preview

We get as much mileage as we can out of the “picked to finish 13th in the SEC” narrative, but that story really changed as soon as the Vols beat Purdue. That was 91 days ago. Tennessee then increased its tournament profile in the most boring way possible: competitive losses to Villanova and North Carolina, wins over everyone else in the non-conference. It looks like that will now include one additional victory over a tournament team (NC State), but at the time there was no additional earth-shattering moment after Purdue. The Vols beat all the teams they should beat, and almost beat two teams better than them.

But after a brief set of questions following near misses with Arkansas and Auburn to open SEC play, the Vols provided answers almost every night. Tennessee won nine of its next ten games in what might be the deepest SEC of all-time, beating Texas A&M and sweeping Kentucky. They won four road games, losing only at Missouri by four. It was, and is, the sort of streak that creates an expectation and then lives up to it.

Meanwhile, Auburn did basically the same thing, which kept the SEC title just out of reach. Tennessee’s RPI has hovered between 10-20 for six weeks. Even though it seems strange to say with that whole picked-13th past, Tennessee has been this good for a while now.

So good for so long, in fact, we flirted with one-seed talk the same week we won at Rupp Arena. Did the Vols fly a little too close to the sun? We’ll find out in March. But a 28-point loss at Alabama and what should be the season’s first loss to a non-tournament team at Georgia both backed the Vols down the bracket, and raised questions for the first time in almost two months. (By the way, the #nobadlosses still holds up – Georgia wasn’t a “good loss”, but the Dawgs are 66th in RPI in 70th in KenPom. That’s an NIT team.)

A team with Tennessee’s profile – consistent all year but an elite win or two shy from longer one-seed conversations – feels like a baseball team seven games up in the wild card in early August. There’s still work to do, and it sucks you can’t win the division, but this team is going to the playoffs with every chance to advance. That’s the end result, and you know it a few miles away from the bracket. A team like that can get lost in the grind for a minute.

Is that what’s happened to Tennessee these last few days, or are there legitimate concerns? Here with some answers are the Florida Gators.

Florida runs a particularly efficient offense: shoot threes, make free throws, don’t turn it over. Virginia Tech transfer Jalen Hudson and Rice transfer Egor Koulechov joined Chris Chiozza and KeVaughn Allen in this guard-heavy lineup, and these dudes will let it fly. The Gators are fourth in the SEC in threes attempted and 70th nationally in three-point percentage; Hudson shoots 39.5% and Koulechov 42%. They shoot 73.8% from the line, and most of all, they take great care of the basketball. Florida is fourth nationally in turnover percentage, giving the ball away on just 14.3% of its possessions.

Florida has also been a tad unlucky, especially when it comes to opponent free throw shooting. They lost to Duke by three when the Blue Devils went 19-of-20 at the line, and at Vanderbilt by three when the Commodores went 22-of-24. Ole Miss, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida State all beat the Gators while shooting better than 81% at the line.

Much of Tennessee’s focus right now is on offensive production and rebounding, but Tennessee’s most consistent weakness has been stopping great guards. Florida provides another opportunity for Rick Barnes’s squad to show their work.

On the other side of this one is a road trip through the state of Mississippi and another shot at Georgia in Knoxville. It’s the last test against a tournament team before the SEC Tournament, and will either cast our vision back toward the bracket with a win, or deeper into what makes this team tick with a loss.

9:00 PM ET, but hey, we made it to ESPN2! Have I mentioned we still have the television schedule of a team picked to finish 13th?

Go Vols.

 

Gameday Today: (H)oops looking to get its groove back

(H)oops!

Tennessee men’s basketball had another rough night Saturday, losing to Georgia, 73-62. That makes two losses in three games on the heels of a six-game winning streak and talk of a possible 1-seed.

Coach Barnes (who, by the way, is a national coach of the year candidate according to SI.com), reacted to the significant free throw disparity Saturday night by putting the blame on his team, not the officials. Georgia made 27 of 38 freebies, while the Vols only had 15 total trips to the charity stripe. Fan may call that bad officiating or home court advantage or whatever, but Barnes says it means the team “didn’t play very smart,” suggesting they were too content to shoot over defenders instead of taking hard to the basket.

The loss to the Bulldogs may (or may not) be the worst on the season resume, but regardless, Wes Rucker’s right that losing right now could pay off when it counts. A coach can tell his guys that they can get beat by anyone anytime if they don’t play well, and they can even believe it, but actually having it happen and feeling it is another matter entirely.

Let’s hope they rediscover their groove at the right time and remember the lessons learned along the way. For his part, Barnes is mashing buttons like crazy and sparing no one, not even Grant Williams, the team’s best and most consistent player who’s nevertheless been in a bit of a funk recently. Barnes is not only not coddling Williams, he’s trained a giant spotlight on him in the midst of his struggles, saying that he “has to quit talking about it and do it.”

Other tidbits

The Lady Vols basketball team also lost this weekend, to No. 13 Mizzouri, 77-73.

The softball team, though, beat Marshall 5-4 on a late hit by Meghan Gregg with the bases loaded.

The baseball team split a doubleheader Sunday with Maryland, losing 10-4 in Game 1 and winning 13-6 in Game 2.

VFL Christian Coleman broke the world record in the 60-meter dash yesterday:

And finally, Peyton Manning may not be able to sell you these products, but he is able to maintain his sense of humor even while driving the pace car at the Daytona 500:

Vols lose to Georgia on the road, 73-62

Tennessee basketball, presented an opportunity to inch closer to an Auburn team that had lost earlier in the day at South Carolina, instead blew their own road game at Georgia this evening, losing 73-62. Fortunately for Tennessee, they weren’t the only SEC team to lose on the road today, as all six tournament teams that traveled lost.

The Bulldogs used a couple of second half runs to secure the victory, starting the second period with a 10-2 run and then using an 8-2 run to seal the deal under the ten minute mark after the Vols had cut the lead to 2.

Tennessee had one last gasp when Lamonte Turner buried a three with 1:11 remaining and closed the gap to two possessions, but Georgia was able to pull away and hit their free throws when the Vols turned to desperation fouls.

Kyle Alexander posted his second career double-double, finishing with 10 points and 13 rebounds. Lamonte Turner led the way on the scored board with 14 points, and Jordan Bowden and Admiral Schofield had 13 and 11, respectively. Grant Williams was held to 5 points and four rebounds. He was 1-8 from the field.

Meanwhile, the Vols allowed SEC Player of the Year candidate Yante Maten to score 19 points and grab five rebounds and allowed Derek Ogbeide to earn a double-double dominating the paint.

Tennessee hosts Florida Wednesday night at 9:00 p.m. on ESPN2.

Gameday Today: regular season hoops homestretch, more football details emerge

Hoops

If you haven’t seen it yet, be sure to check out Will’s latest post on Tennessee basketball, which analyzes what, specifically, makes the team hum. Spoiler alert:

. . . Tennessee’s best basketball is a balanced effort from Williams, Schofield, Bowden from the arc, and getting just enough (but not too much) from its three guards.

The post is full of great information, so go read the whole thing.

Assuming they continue to do what they do, the Vols are in good shape to finish second in the SEC regular season race.

Also, there’s this fun fact about guard Jordan Bone:

Football

The Vols are not especially happy about losing punter Trevor Daniel, but they are excited about incoming punter Paxton Brooks, even if he is shaped like a chopstick.

They also love incoming defensive lineman John Mincey, the “Country Killer” who doesn’t have the time or inclination to waste on “Twitter, Snapchat, and all that stuff.” Old men everywhere, rejoice.

But while Jeremy Pruitt and his staff love these guys, he is actively discouraging any unrealistic expectations for them, warning that some of the positions they recruited this cycle are “developmental” positions that take time. What is this “development” wizardry you speak of?

By the way, Pruitt has also apparently told the media that his starters are supposed to be available for two special teams units and that non-starters are supposed to be available for three to four.

And even though the Vols might be in the market for a grad transfer or two at quarterback and/or offensive line, don’t expect anything to happen for a month or two on that front.

Tidbits

The No. 11 Lady Vols lost to Alabama 72-63 in Thompson-Boling last night. That’s the first time Alabama has won in Knoxville. Ever.

Tennessee baseball gets underway today against Maryland. The first pitch has been postponed until 6:00 due to weather.

ESPN and FOX are both after Peyton Manning for the broadcasting booth.

What does Tennessee’s best basketball look like in mid-February?

Five to go. Auburn just keeps winning, still two up on the Vols. The Tigers have a pair of games with South Carolina book-ending three tests against likely NCAA Tournament teams (Alabama, at Florida, at Arkansas). Tennessee has just one such test with Florida, plus two with Georgia and a quick trip through the state of Mississippi. It’s not over, but it’s close.

The larger concern for Tennessee is (re?)discovering its best basketball with March on the horizon. A six-game winning streak and whispers of a one seed came crashing down in a 28-point loss at Alabama, and the Vols nearly squandered a pair of double-digit leads against South Carolina in Knoxville.

Tennessee is still 13th in KenPom and RPI, and right on the 3/4 seed line in the Bracket Matrix. It’s been an amazing year. How can the Vols work to ensure their best basketball isn’t behind them?

A couple of benchmarks still hold up: Tennessee is 14-1 when shooting better than 36% from the arc, 17-3 when getting an assist on at least 45% of their made baskets. Share the ball, make threes, win the game. But I think what really makes Tennessee hum goes deeper than that.

Grant Williams averages 16.2 points per game, 21.3% of Tennessee’s scoring load. The Vols don’t go as he goes – Texas A&M and Iowa State are the only power conference teams to hold him to single digits, and Tennessee won both those games – but they do go to him first. Tennessee’s offense also looks to create opportunities for Admiral Schofield, next in scoring at 12.3 per game.

Those two are generally consistent in both wins and losses. The difference between victory and defeat for Tennessee is most often what the rest of the team does. And when the Vols are at their best, the rest of the team does two things really well (all this data is compiled from Sports Reference).

One: Jordan Bowden hits threes. Tennessee is 14-3 when Bowden hits at least one three, and 12-1 when he scores in double digits. The Vols looked to him like never before against South Carolina, and he delivered: 4-of-10 from the arc and 14 points. That performance broke a chilly 3-for-20 streak in the previous five games. Bowden is still one of the league’s best shooters at 44.2% from the arc. When defenses have to account for him on the perimeter, everything runs better in Tennessee’s offense.

Two, Tennessee is at its best when its guards produce, but not too much. You never know who is going to be the one on any given night between Jordan Bone, James Daniel, and Lamonte Turner. But there is a statistical sweet spot for the three combined:

  • When Bone, Daniel, and Turner account for less than 20% of Tennessee’s points, the Vols are 3-2. Two of those three wins are Presbyterian and Furman. The two losses are UT’s worst offensive performances of the year: at Missouri and at Alabama. Those are the only two times the Vols have scored less than 60 points; Tennessee’s three guards combined for 10 points in Tuscaloosa, 11 in CoMo.
  • When Bone, Daniel, and Turner account for more than 50% of Tennessee’s points, the Vols are 1-2. The one win was at Iowa State, which Tennessee’s defense gets credit for as much as anything else. The two losses are Arkansas and Auburn, late-game shootouts fueled by foul trouble and great guard play on the other bench. This team is not built to win playing through its guards first.
  • When Bone, Daniel and Turner account for 21-49% of Tennessee’s points, the Vols are 15-2. And the two losses are no-shame affairs to Villanova and North Carolina. All of Tennessee’s best wins – Kentucky x2, Texas A&M, Purdue, NC State – are in this realm. Their average contribution is around 31%. Here are their game-by-game contributions.

The Vols are still eighth in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings. They’re good enough to win even when shots aren’t falling. But Tennessee’s best basketball is a balanced effort from Williams, Schofield, Bowden from the arc, and getting just enough (but not too much) from its three guards. And this group of six players all contribute to Tennessee’s stellar assist percentage: all of them average between 1.5 and and 3.5 assists per game.

These last five games offer a last chance to improve before the stakes are raised. The strength of the league means the SEC Tournament quarterfinals will look a lot like the second round of the NCAA Tournament. If there are no upsets on Thursday in St. Louis, Friday could feature eight tournament-bound teams; seven of them are an eight seed or better in the latest Bracket Matrix. The Vols could finish second in the league and face Kentucky in their first game of the SEC Tournament. Nothing will be easy.

How easy will tomorrow’s test at Georgia be? The Dawgs have two wins in their last eight games, but both are against Florida. Mark Fox might be coaching for his job; Georgia is 14-11 but should miss the NCAA Tournament for the seventh time in his nine years. Winning really big in football can make one a little more hungry in basketball.

Their struggles may also keep Yante Maten from SEC Player of the Year, despite averaging 19.5 points and and 8.7 rebounds in one of the slowest offenses in college basketball. The Dawgs are also one of the worst teams in the nation at forcing turnovers. It could be a good opportunity for Tennessee’s offense to get back in its groove.

6:00 PM Saturday, SEC Network. Go Vols.

 

 

 

Gameday Today: additions to the football staff, opinions, and game times

Football Staff

Tennessee reportedly made two hires yesterday: former Heisman-winner and Alabama offensive analyst Chris Weinke will coach the running backs and JUCO offensive mastermind Joe Osovet will be an offensive analyst.

And in case you only read the headline saying that Robert Gillespie “didn’t like” being fired, here’s the whole quote from Phillip Fulmer:

“This is a big boy’s business,” Fulmer said, according to the Knoxville News Sentinel. “He understood. He was very professional. We talked yesterday. It was simply a matter of Coach Pruitt doing what he thought was right for his program and Robert.

“Robert was fine. Robert is OK. He didn’t like it, I’m not saying that. But he’s OK. He understood. It’s a big boy business.”

Everybody’s got one

With news being pretty scarce, everybody’s starting in with their opinions:

Here are the Vols signees who will make an immediate impact this fall, according to SEC Country.

And here are the three top targets for Pruitt in next year’s recruiting class, according to Gridiron Now, and the top four needs for that class ($$$), according to Rivals.

Pruitt himself has opinions, too, and one of them is that 3-star defensive lineman signee Kurott Garland is going to be a “really good football player.”

According to Tennessee safeties coach Charles Kelly, here are the three characteristics every safety needs to possess.

And just to keep this particular fire burning, CBS also thinks that Tennessee is still one of the most talented teams in the nation.

Other fun stuff

The No. 11 Lady Vols host Alabama this evening at 6:30.

The Vols baseball season begins tomorrow as the team opens with a three-game series against Maryland at Lindsey Nelson Stadium.