Gameday on Rocky Top

I don’t know what you think the lowest moment of the last ten years is; maybe it’s the loss to Kentucky in 2011, maybe getting blown out by Georgia last year, or maybe it’s just everything from the South Carolina game in 2016 onward. But I’m a firm believer that the scariest moment was the hours between John Currie’s dismissal and Phillip Fulmer’s hire on December 1.

The book on Fulmer as athletic director will be written over the next few years; there are no guarantees. But in that moment, the Vols seemed more vulnerable than they’d been in my entire lifetime. The short-term was already sacrificed with the Schiano fiasco, but the long-term was on the table with no athletic director, no guarantees the powers that be would bring in the right one, and no promising candidates who would want to walk into that kind of situation as Tennessee’s next head coach.

And at some point in those hours on December 1, I remember thinking, “…and we can’t block anyone next year anyway.”

10 Questions for 2018 #4: The Offensive Line

Consider how much better things have gotten since then, not only with Fulmer and (hopefully) Pruitt, but the line. That this isn’t question number one is a very good sign.

Jeremy Pruitt inherited a line including Drew Richmond, Trey Smith, Marcus Tatum, Ryan Johnson, Riley Locklear, and redshirt freshman K’Rojhn Calbert. Devante Brooks had just been converted from tight end. That’s seven scholarship players. Jack Jones was out, Venzell Boulware transferred, and Chance Hall and Nathan Niehaus seemed unlikely to return. Even before we assumed we wouldn’t get Cade Mays, this was big trouble. When we did a first draft 2018 depth chart in the midst of the coaching search, we had to leave center blank.

But Jeremy Pruitt did three critical things to shore up the line: signed four-star Jerome Carvin, picked up junior college transfer Jahmir Johnson, and landed Alabama transfer Brandon Kennedy.

The Vols still didn’t get Mays, then had several months of waiting to hear Trey Smith could go again. I’m still not sure when or at what percentage we’ll see Chance Hall. But there’s at least some optimism available now when it was impossible to find back in December.

The Vols could start a five-star and three four-stars in this group. Again, leaning heavily on recruiting rankings and hoping this staff flips the switch on a player like Drew Richmond is what we’re all guilty of with a first-year coach. But there’s now hope the Vols could not only fill out the line, but it could be an asset.

Last season Tennessee was 114th nationally in sacks allowed, 121st in TFLs allowed, and 115th in yards per carry. The sacks number (2.92 per game) was only the worst since 2014 (3.31) when Justin Worley was ultimately lost for the year. The Vols also allowed 3.15 per game in the 2010 “we can’t play Tyler Bray because he might die back there” season with freshmen everywhere on the line. Sacks allowed have varied wildly in this decade between styles of play and freshmen being forced to step in. That shouldn’t have to be the case this season; guys like Ollie Lane and Taylor Antonutti will be available, but can rightfully wait before they’re asked to be a first-team option if the Vols stay relatively healthy.

The tackles for loss were a concern throughout Butch Jones’ tenure; Southern Cal struggled a bit in that department last season as well, but were 11th nationally in that stat in 2016. Hopefully the system and the play-calling will help there. As for running the football, 3.41 yards per carry last season was the program’s worst number since 2011 (2.76). But those two totals, along with Ole Miss’s 3.36 ypc in 2011, are the worst three rushing performances in the SEC this decade. There’s bad, and then there’s a kind of historically bad you simply cannot afford to be in this league.

So yes, there’s lots of room to grow. But that growth now has names and faces and even backups, and the majority of the starters should at least carry the recruiting rankings Pruitt’s staff will want to become the norm. The Vols don’t have to start freshmen, and the previous staff did at least recruit the position as opposed to what they were left by Derek Dooley. Last season was as bad as it’s been on the line, and things looked especially perilous during the transition. But looking forward, there’s more reason for optimism, especially with offensive line coach Will Friend having an influence on not just this unit but the offense as a whole. That this line has a better prognosis than at least a couple we’ve inherited this decade is a good sign. If they stay healthy, they might even become a strength.

10 Questions for 2018

10. Which backups on the defensive line will be starters in 2019?

09. Can special teams make the difference in a coach’s first year?

08. What do we know about Tyson Helton’s offense from his time at USC?

07. Who’s the third/fourth wide receiver in an offense that will actually throw them the ball?

06. What about team chemistry with a first-time coach and a hodgepodge of players?

05. How much ground can the Vols gain in year one on the non-UGA SEC East?

 

 

Football is near.

And it won’t be long until we’re gearing ourselves up for the Vols to usher in the Jeremy Pruitt era.

We all know 2018 likely isn’t going to be a pretty sight, but that doesn’t mean we can’t talk ourselves into the Vols being much-improved under the former Alabama defensive coordinator. After all, Butch Jones is gone.

You just can’t help this time of year to be a tiny bit optimistic, even if logic (and recent history) suggests this is going to be yet another rebuilding campaign in Knoxville. Pruitt wants to win now, and he definitely isn’t used to losing after successful tenures in Tuscaloosa, Tallahassee and Athens, Georgia.

He’s outfitted UT’s roster with more size, and an infusion of collegiate talent. And he’s won some recruiting battles for guys who must be able to come right in and make an impact.

But what about the dudes already on the team? Who needs to make a major step forward in 2018 for the Vols to rise above the 4-8 doldrums of a historically horrible season where it looked like the team quit on former coach Butch Jones and his staff?

So far, our list has gone a little like this:

Offense: 5. Jauan Jennings 4. Ryan Johnson 3. Ty Chandler 2. Drew Richmond

Defense: 5. Jonathan Kongbo 4. Theo Jackson 3. Darrell Taylor 2. Baylen Buchanan

Who are the top two, then?

OFFENSE

No. 1 JARRETT GUARANTANO, RS SOPHOMORE QUARTERBACK

Say what you want to about graduate transfer Keller Chryst, and he may actually win the starting quarterback gig. But I’m not sure that’s the best thing for the Vols.

What would be an ideal situation is for the former dynamic, highly rated high school prospect from New Jersey to grow into his full potential and surge into stardom with three years left to play. Not only would that help the Vols ease into the Jeremy Pruitt era with a dependable signal-caller, it would allow guys like true freshman J.T. Shrout and recruit Brian Maurer to develop.

You have to think if Guarantano doesn’t beat out Chryst, his time at Tennessee would be nearing an end. It’s tough to speculate on something like that, sure, but I’m not sure if he can’t beat out a former backup at Stanford in year 3 of his time at UT if he’ll ever be the player the Vols thought they were getting when they recruited him.

Guarantano is not a run-first guy the way Joshua Dobbs was. He has a cannon for an arm and though he can make all the throws, he struggled with his anticipation and throwing guys open as a second-year freshman a year ago. His “internal clock” was broken, too. He never felt the pressure the way you want your quarterback to, and too many times, plays broke down because he didn’t get rid of the ball.

This spring, you would have loved to see him separate himself and earn a little bit of a head start with Chryst not on campus. He didn’t do that, and Guarantano really isn’t an ideal fit for new offensive coordinator Tyson Helton’s system. But that doesn’t mean he’ll fail. He’s got a lot of talent and can make all the plays. He can even run a little.

The Vols need for Guarantano to be a fiery leader, a gamer who grinds out plays and can make the spectacular ones occasionally. Helton has developed a lot of quarterbacks who’ve posted big-time collegiate numbers, and while nobody expects Guarantano to be a breakout star, the Vols need for him to be a steady force.

This Tennessee team can’t win football games with a “game manager.” I’m afraid that’s all Chryst would be with his accuracy issues and the lack of proof that he can ignite a downfield attack. Guarantano has that field-stretching arm. He has that ability. He has that swagger.

But can he put everything together?

Right now, he’s a leftover icon from an era gone wrong on Rocky Top. He was the Chosen One to play quarterback for the future of the Vols, but Butch Jones chose him. So, Guarantano doesn’t have the fan base’s heart, and he certainly doesn’t have the stats or the resme for us to believe in him.

He has to prove that he’s a good player and not just another recruiting miscue by a staff that failed to develop player after player after player.

DEFENSE

No. 1 KYLE PHILLIPS, SENIOR DEFENSIVE LINEMAN

For a while, I thought about putting Darrin Kirkland Jr. on this list. After all, he nearly left the Vols, and if he could return to his form as a true freshman when he was literally all over the field making plays, he would be a major boost to UT’s team.

Then I remembered: It doesn’t matter if Kirkland is a beast or not because the Vols’ linebacking corps should be one of the few positions on the team that has talent stockpiled. Between him, Daniel Bituli, Kongbo, Taylor, Will Ignont, Quart’e Sapp, JJ Peterson, Jordan Allen, Deandre Johnson, Austin Smith, Shanon Reid, Dillon Bates and others, surely the Vols can find a serviceable — if not dynamic — foursome. Yes, Kirkland is important, but I think the players I’ve put on the list are more important.

So, I’m going to go with a defensive lineman here.

Though Shy Tuttle probably should have been on here somewhere (I’m still not convinced Kongbo is a factor…) the top spot goes to Phillips. Remember when he destroyed the U.S. Army All-American Game, committed to Tennessee over LSU, and we all thought we were in for four years where he was going to terrorize SEC quarterbacks?

That seems like so long ago.

As a freshman, he started at defensive end, lacked explosion, moved inside to his chagrin but made some plays and then his season ended prematurely with injury. Injuries, inconsistency and mismanagement hindered him as a sophomore, and he was just so-so last year. Now, this offseason, he’s added a few pounds and is up to 273 pounds. He is expected to play inside some and can also play at that weight on the outside, too.

But he’s going to play a big role. Pruitt thought enough of him that Phillips represented Tennessee at SEC Media Days, not Tuttle. He’s a smart kid, a good kid and he hasn’t enjoyed the kind of career he expected. Now, this year, he hopes to build off a really good spring and finish his career in Knoxville with a flurry.

The Vols need dependable, rugged players on the defensive front who can stay in their slots, not get blown off the ball, and, most importantly, stop the run. That’s something this team hasn’t done in years. Now, if Tuttle can have a solid final year and a guy like Phillips can be a cog in the front, it can free up the ‘backers to make plays.

Is this group going to get a lot of sacks? That’s doubtful. But the Vols absolutely must get pressure on quarterbacks and help out what is expected to be a young and inexperienced secondary. When you look at that defensive line, there are some formerly heavily recruited players who’ve had mediocre careers who are really looking for something in their swan song.

Phillips is the perfect embodiment of that. He needs a big year if he’s going to get any NFL teams to give him a second look. The Vols need him to be a factor if they’re going to be any good at all this season.

So, here he sits, at the top of the list. It’s now or never for Phillips and a lot of his Jones-recruited teammates who suffered through the worst season in the history of the program a year ago.

Jesse Simonton’s piece at VolQuest this week produced a familiar answer to a fun late-July question. What’s Tennessee’s most important game?

It’s Florida. It’s almost always Florida.

There are quotes Tennessee fans will like in Jesse’s piece, offering some behind-the-scenes insight on how Jeremy Pruitt’s staff seems to understand the importance of Vols/Gators around here. And while Florida has been a consistent answer to that question since the divisional format began in 1992, why the game is so important has shifted over the years from Tennessee’s perspective.

It’s easier to think of seasons when Florida didn’t feel like the most important game in late-July. It’s also fun to look at the impact of the Florida game at the end of each year. Here are a few thoughts on the pre-and-post-season answers to Tennessee’s most important game since the Vols and Gators have been together in the SEC East:

1992-95: The Bama Streak

Even though the Vols and Crimson Tide aren’t in the same division, Alabama still felt like the most important game of the year until the Vols broke what became a 10-year streak. It took that, in 1995, to really turn the attention of Tennessee fans fully toward Gainesville, where by then Florida had picked up a three-year run of its own over Tennessee. Looking back, only the first of these years in 1992 wasn’t also defined by what the Vols did against Alabama in the end. Phillip Fulmer’s takeover made the Florida game the most meaningful at the end of the ’92 season, both the best memory from that year and the one that most assisted Fulmer in becoming Tennessee’s next head coach. 1993’s longest-lasting memory is the tie against the Crimson Tide, a near-miss at the goal line the longest from 1994, and that jubilant night in Birmingham still sings 23 years later from 1995.

1996-2001: Tennessee/Florida as a National Rivalry

With the exception of a rebuild in 2000, in every one of these years you knew there were national championship implications on the line when Tennessee and Florida met. And only once, when the Vols lost to Florida in 1997 but still made the SEC Championship Game, did the outcome fail to define Tennessee’s season. These six match-ups were #2 vs #4, #2 vs #4, #2 vs #6, #2 vs #4, #6 vs #11 in 2000, then #2 vs #5. That’s all you need to know.

2002-03: A Brief Intermission for Miami

Having drained The Swamp and watched Steve Spurrier leave for the NFL, the Vols were free to dream a little bigger heading into the 2002 season. The defending champs from Miami would visit Neyland Stadium that November, and with the Vols in the preseason top five it felt like the biggest bulls-eye coming in. Of course, the 2002 season didn’t go as planned, starting with a rainy day against Florida that ended up being the longest-lasting memory from that year. The following season Florida was back in its rightful place atop the most important list at the start of the year, but a surprise upset in the return match with the Hurricanes (and a three-way tie in the SEC East) made the win at Miami the season’s most memorable.

2004-09: Change on the Horizon

With Ron Zook at Florida, Georgia took advantage. Florida won the BCS title in 2006, but it was their only SEC East crown from 2001-07. Tennessee and Georgia split the other six, making the Dawgs the most important game on the front end in 2004 and 2005, plus Georgia’s preseason #1 turn in 2008. It lived up to that standard in 2004, as the Vols stunned #3 Georgia in Athens en route to the division crown. And while it may not have felt like the most important game coming in, wins over Georgia in 2007 and 2009 were the best memories from those years. During this span the Vols also had critical early-season non-conference games that mattered a great deal in perception: California in 2006, and UCLA for Lane Kiffin in 2009.

2010-17: You’re not really back until you…

Beat Florida. During the Derek Dooley and Butch Jones tenures, only once was Florida not the most important game of the year coming in: 2013, in Jones’ first year, with Vanderbilt on the rise under James Franklin and the Vols having lost to Kentucky in 2011 and Vanderbilt in 2012. After the Dooley era, beating the Gators felt like too big of an ask for Jones in year one, the most sober we’ve been as a fan base (and maybe even more sober than we are right now). I’d listen to an argument for 2015, that more people were invested in that Oklahoma game in Neyland than Florida in The Swamp coming into the year, but I’m not sure I’m buying it. For Dooley, only in the end was the Florida game truly the most important: his first team turned it over to Tyler Bray at South Carolina and seemed to turn a corner; his second team threw all that right in the fire at Kentucky, which should never ever be your most impactful game of the year. Butch Jones got more positive out of beating South Carolina in 2013 than losing to Vanderbilt, but Florida has been the most painful memory in each of the last four years. Three losses that absolutely should not have been, and one spectacular win that couldn’t stand the test of time by season’s end.

By my count, Florida has felt like the most important game coming into the year in 15 of the last 22 seasons since the Vols broke the Bama streak. And it has been the game with the longest-lasting impact on Tennessee’s year 11 times in those 22 years, including five of the last six. It’s a far cry from what we saw in the late 90’s, but the stakes still feel quite real. They’re all important for Jeremy Pruitt, including West Virginia. But the answer is almost always Florida. It’s Pruitt’s job to raise those stakes even higher.