Gameday on Rocky Top

I have never felt the way I did sitting in Neyland Stadium last week. Ever. It was a hopeless, helpless feeling. Being competitive feels so far away as everything fell apart in what wound up being a 47-21 loss to Florida.

I didn’t even see the last touchdown because I left early for just the third time in all the years, all the games I’ve been to. I was disgusted and disgruntled. And here’s the thing: It’s likely going to be worse this week. It probably will be worse against Auburn. It absolutely will be cringe-worthy worse against Alabama.

We’re fans, though. We’ve got to suck it up and hope. This weekend, the Vols head to Athens where they are more than 31-point underdogs. That’s unfathomable to me, especially considering we’re just a couple years removed from this game traditionally being decided by a score or less.

But things have changed. UGA is one of the top teams in the nation, coming into this tilt with the Vols ranked No. 2. Kirby Smart is recruiting as well as anybody in the nation. Not only is it going to hurt seeing former 5-star commitment Cade Mays playing in the red and black, he’s starting and shining as a true freshman.

It’s enough to make you sick, on top of everything else.

Nobody expects Tennessee to be anywhere near in this game, so — look on the bright side — if the Vols come out and surprise everybody, it could make us feel much better about the direction of the season.

Again, though, don’t expect it. Not this week.

KEYS

Stop the slow

I know that every week this is on the list, and it will be until the Vols stop it. They absolutely cannot get off to a slow start every week; they aren’t good enough to overcome it.

Against West Virginia, the Mountaineers punched them in the mouth right away, and UT never recovered. Against two awful teams in ETSU and UTEP, the Vols sputtered at the front. Then, against the Gators, UT turned the football over on the first two possessions, watched Florida convert them into touchdowns, and it was never close.

Shawn Shamburger even fumbled the second half’s opening kickoff leading to a one-play Gators scoring drive, proving that there’s something about layoffs that is killing the Vols.

Jeremy Pruitt must do something about that. If it happens this week, the Dawgs will blow them out of Samford Stadium.

Squeaky clean

Say what you want about last weekend’s embarrassment, and there’s plenty to say about how thoroughly ugly it was. But UT turned the ball over six — SIX!!!! — times.

The Vols literally handed Florida 28 points on a silver platter. Two of Jarrett Guarantano’s turnovers were directly turned into touchdowns. Shamburger’s second-half special teams blunder led to another touchdown. Then, we won’t soon forget Austin Pope fumbling through the end zone on another would-be score for the Vols.

That’s 21 points for Florida and -7 points for the Vols.

Tennessee lost by 26.

You do the math.

The Vols aren’t good enough to overcome those mistakes. Against a team like Georgia, the Bulldogs will make things ugly quickly if it continues. Tennessee has to take care of the ball.

Keep Guarantano clean, too

There’s nothing wrong with the way redshirt sophomore Guarantano has played this year. Those calling for somebody else to start are being ridiculous.

But he still hangs onto the ball too long, and he still gets shaky when defenders are breathing down his neck. Yes, Guarantano is a super-tough kid, but he also isn’t the biggest quarterback, and Cece Jefferson knocked him out of the UF game [albeit with a cheap shot]. The Vols can’t afford to A) get him hurt or B) let him operate under as much duress as he has so far.

Guarantano needs to do a better job of moving the pocket, and if offensive coordinator Tyson Helton was smart [which is still far up in the air at this point] he would design some plays to help him do that. But Tennessee’s offensive line is horrible, and it can’t continue that way.

If what is trotting out there isn’t working, change it. Give K’Rojhn Calbert a shot. Give Marcus Tatum an extended look. Move Trey Smith back inside. Do SOMETHING (anything?) to make things easier on JG.

The kid isn’t good when he’s being pressured. Think Georgia and Mel Tucker don’t know that? You’re crazy.

Turnover time

Tennessee’s defense was not bad against Florida, and it’s obvious the Vols are improving on that side of the ball. They were excellent in third-down defense, and when Florida had long fields, they didn’t do all that well.

Yes, there were too many big plays, but the Vols weren’t bad. It needs to get better and better.

One thing UT needs to do is generate more big plays. Pruitt’s defense needs to create game-changing plays, helping its offense out in this one. Without them, Tennessee cannot win.

Color blind

I fully believe the Vols aren’t as awful as they were last Saturday night. If they are, it’s going to be at least three years before they’re back; plain and simple. Instead, I think it was just too many mistakes, and once they got down against Florida, nobody expected they were going to beat Florida.

That jersey holds sway over UT. Always has.

The red-and-black jerseys haven’t, and they don’t need to start now. If the Vols play scared football, they’ll get killed because UGA is a much, much better football team with far more talent. The Vols need to play with swagger, and they need to play with a clean slate. It’s the only way to have hope.

Prediction: Georgia 41, Tennessee 14

LOCKS

We. Are. Back!

After an awful week last time out, we rebounded with a 5-2 slate to improve to 16-12 for the season. That’s makin’ money, y’all! That’s a good thing, too, because we need to stay hot. Because, you know, the Vols ain’t. And we’ve got to have some reason to watch college football.

Here is this week’s lucky seven.

1. West Virginia -3.5 over Texas Tech: I will forever believe that a Will Grier-led team will obliterate a team with zero defense. Texas Tech can score, but the Red Raiders will not score enough to win this game. At least the Mountaineers play a little bit of defense.
2. Purdue -3.5 over Nebraska: A week ago, I said the Boilermakers were the best 0-3 team in football. Now they’re the best 1-3 team in football. And though Adrian Martinez will be back for Scott Frost’s team, the Cornhuskers’ issues are deeper than just quarterback. Jeff Brohm keeps it rolling.
3. Hawaii -11.5 over San Jose State: I feel like Vegas is still disrespecting Cole McDonald’s dual-threat abilities. Now he’s going against an atrocious pass defense. Warriors will dominate this one.
4. Florida Atlantic -4.5 over MTSU: Lane Kiffin is coming back to Tennessee as a head coach for the first time since he was with the Vols. It’s on a much smaller stage, but he may be playing a better team than the Vols. His Owls will still outscore Brent Stockstill and the Raiders.
5. North Texas -7.5 over Louisiana Tech: La Tech is a good team. The Mean Green is the most underrated team in the nation. Yes, Arkansas is terrible, but North Texas DOMINATED an SEC team, even if it’s a shell of an SEC team. I’m riding the Green.
6. Ohio State/Penn State under 67.5: It’s going to be a fun matchup watching the Nittany Lions offensive line against the Buckeyes defensive line, and it’s a shame Nick Bosa is out until November. But it’s not like these teams are devoid of defense. This is a huge number. The under is screaming at me.
7. BYU +17 over Washington: I love the way Kalani Sitake gets his team up for big games. I also am not a believer in the Huskies anymore as Jake Browning has regressed as much as any “star” player in college football since Matt Barkley. Washington was favored by far too much against Arizona State last week, and I said take the Sun Devils. They covered with ease. Do the same this week with the Cougs.

We’re now to the point of the season where we can rely primarily on 2018 data, although the sample set is still small enough to view it with a healthy dose of skepticism. So, while we say goodbye to 2017 data, our stewpot still includes eyes and guts to go along with the 2018 data.

So let’s get to it. First, the predictions, and below them, the details:

Predictions

SPM: Georgia 37, Tennessee 15

Eye- and gut-adjusted: Georgia 45, Tennessee 13

Tennessee rushing yards: 60

Georgia rushing yards: 200

Tennessee passing yards: 150

Georgia passing yards: 220

Tennessee points: 13

Georgia points: 45

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 205.0 rushing yards per game, while Georgia is giving up 118.8 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is Georgia, is Florida (although it’s not very close at all), which is giving up 187.8 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 156 against them.

Surprisingly, West Virginia is actually better than Georgia at defending the run so far this season, allowing only 118.7 rushing yards per game. Tennessee got 129 on the ground against the Mountaineers.

Looking at things from Georgia’s perspective, they held South Carolina — which is averaging 196.7 yards per game on the ground — to only 54. Oof.

Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Georgia is 60.

Georgia rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 134.8 rushing yards per game, while the Georgia run game is averaging 250.3 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, but again, it’s not a very good comparison, as the Gators are getting only 189.0 yards per game on the ground. They ran for 201 against Tennessee.

Georgia will be the best rushing offense the Vols have played so far this season. Oof.

Looking through Georgia’s eyes, they ran for 271 against South Carolina and 185 against Missouri. Both of these results were far above (not far from double) what those teams usually give up on the ground (163 for South Carolina and 102.3 for Missouri).

All of that said, I’m guessing Georgia puts up 200 yards rushing against the Vols on Saturday.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 192.8 passing yards per game, and Georgia is allowing 173.5. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is giving up 185.3 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 172 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP. They’re allowing 163.3 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 167 against them.

Viewing things from Georgia’s perspective doesn’t shed much light on the subject.

My guess is that Tennessee will net somewhere around 150 passing yards this weekend.

Georgia passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 180.8 passing yards per game. Georgia is getting 227.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is getting 194.5 yards per game through the air, and they got 186 against Tennessee.

The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is averaging 373.7 passing yards per game and got 429 against Tennessee.

When playing South Carolina, Georgia put up 30 more yards than the average that South Carolina is giving up (they got 202).

I’m going with Georgia putting up about 220 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 29.5 points per game, and Georgia is allowing 13.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is allowing 16.0 points per game, and Tennessee got 21 against them.

The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia. They’re allowing 12.3 points per game, and Tennessee got 14 against them. So, the Vols appear to be doing a little better than its opponents’ averages.

On the other hand, South Carolina is averaging 34.3 points per game but got only 17 against Georgia.

My prediction is that Tennessee will score around 13 points against the Bulldogs.

Georgia scoring

Tennessee is allowing 22.5 points per game. Georgia is averaging 44.5, making them the best scoring offense the Vols have seen this season. Oof.

The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is averaging 42.3 points, and they got 40 against Tennessee.

South Carolina’s defense is giving up an average of 23.3 points per game, and Georgia got 41 against them. Oof.

I’m going with Georgia basically hitting their average of 45 points against Tennessee.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

Left alone, the SPM says Georgia 37, Tennessee 15, a spread of 22.

With eyeball and gut adjustments, I’m going with Georgia 45, Tennessee 13, a spread of 32.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Georgia has a 93.5% chance of winning and puts the score at Georgia 44.9, Tennessee 18.6, a spread of 26.3.

The Vegas spread favors Georgia by between 31 and 32, with an over/under of 51.5-52, which converts to something like Georgia 42, Tennessee 10.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols only a 2.6% chance of winning.

Oof.

 

 

 

Thursday

 

Gameday

 

At noon this Gameday, West Virginia has what is probably its first real test of the season when the Mountaineers meet No. 25 Texas Tech. West Virginia looking good may make us feel a little better. You can also tune into future opponent Alabama’s game against Louisiana if you like horror movies and don’t want to feel better.

Then it’s Vols-Bulldogs at 3:30 on CBS, with Tennessee a huge underdog on the road against the first of three Top 10 teams in a row. Woo. Go Vols.

Tennessee’s next opponent, Auburn, is also in action at 3:30, so if you want to both watch the Vols live and do a little scouting for next week, fire up the DVR to catch the Tigers. Spoiler alert: They’re going to look good against Southern Miss.

Also relevant to Tennessee at 3:30 is Florida traveling to No. 23 Mississippi State. Opinions will differ on this, but I’m hoping that the Bulldogs beat the scales off the Gators. Sure, the Gators winning or doing well might make Vols fans feel better about last week, but I don’t want to finish last in the SEC East, and I want no good things for Gators while we’re both trying to climb out of our respective craters. Hail State.

The evening slate is full to the brim with Top 25 matchups, the headliner being either No. 4 Ohio State at No. 9 Penn State or No. 7 Stanford at No. 8 Notre Dame, depending on your wiring. South Carolina also travels to No. 17 Kentucky, so that’s a good one to both channel hop live and DVR for future reference.

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

Looking at the national statistical rankings after Week 4, Tennessee’s rushing offense continues to lead in the clubhouse for most improved from 2017.

Meanwhile, another week of data lends credibility to the notion that Tennessee’s defense is actually improving rather quickly under the tutelage of Jeremy Pruitt and his staff.

Negating all of that on the scoreboard, of course, is the fact that the Vols went from 7th in the nation to 102nd in turnovers lost and from 29th to 108th in turnover margin in a single short week. Six turnovers will doom any team, especially one already struggling to find its footing.

Offense

Raise your hand if you’re kinda sorta surprised at some of this. Rushing offense is almost encouraging, and when you compare most of the offensive rankings to the end of last season, they’re actually improved. That’s, of course, what caused me to add in the column for just after the Florida game last season, which means, it’s before Alabama and Georgia. The comparison of those two immediate-post-Florida snapshots seems to comport more with intuition. It also tells us to brace for more sacks and TFLs in the coming weeks.

Defense

This is actually quite encouraging. Almost everything on defense is better, both when compared to this time last year and the entire 2017 season. The team has been really good on third down and first down so far this year, and ranking in the Top 15 in total defense with West Virginia on the resume isn’t too shabby. I know that Florida isn’t an offensive juggernaut, but this does show that those 47 points they scored on the Vols came mostly from turnovers and field position, not yards.

Also surprising is that TFLs and sacks, while not up to Tennessee’s standards, are actually somewhat improved from last year.

Special Teams

Turnovers and Penalties

Wow. Look at that change in the bottom three turnover categories. Yowza.

Not quite 24 hours later, my count-to-10 impression actually hasn’t changed much from what I wrote immediately after the Vols-Gators game last night. The stats aren’t as bad as you might think, but the turnovers are awful and, worse, too many of the turnovers are attributable to an apparently incurable cause.

So, do we feel worse about the team’s 2018 prospects today than we did last week? Yes. How much worse? More than we want to dwell on?

Not only that, but Tennessee’s upcoming opponents all look like what Will is calling the very best versions of themselves. The forecast post-Florida is quite gloomy indeed.

My new expected win total after Week 4 is 4.55, down from 5.5 last week. I have Georgia and Alabama at 5% (down from 10%), Auburn steady at 15%, Kentucky and South Carolina at 25% (down from 40%), Missouri steady at 40%, Vanderbilt as a toss-up, and Charlotte at 90% (down from 95%).

Use the form below to calculate yours and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

• Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
• Beat ETSU, 59-3
• Beat UTEP, 24-0
• Lost to Florida, 47-21
• #2 Georgia, TBD
• #9 Auburn, TBD
• #1 Alabama, TBD
• S Carolina, TBD
• Charlotte, TBD
• Kentucky, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 3-0 (1-0), 1st in Big 12

• Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
• Beat YSU, 52-17
• NC State, Canceled
• Beat Kansas St, 35-6
• Texas Tech, 12:00 PM ET
• Kansas, TBD
• Iowa State, TBD
• Baylor, 7:00 PM ET FOX Sports 1
• Texas, TBD
• #17 TCU, TBD
• #15 Oklahoma St, TBD
• #5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 3-1 (2-0), 1st in Southern

• Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
• Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
• Beat VMI, 27-24
• Beat Furman, 29-27
• Chattanooga, 7:30 PM ET ESPN+
• Gardner-Webb, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• The Citadel, 2:00 PM ET
• Wofford, 1:30 PM ET ESPN+
• W Carolina, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• Mercer, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
• Samford, 1:00 PM ET

UTEP Miners

Current record: 0-4 (0-0), 2nd in C-USA – West

• Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
• Lost to UNLV, 52-24
• Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
• Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
• UTSA, 7:00 PM ET ESPN+
• North Texas, 7:30 PM ET
• LA Tech, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• UAB, 7:30 PM ET ESPN+
• Rice, 3:30 PM ET
• MTSU, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
• W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
• Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+

Florida Gators

Current record: 3-1 (1-1), 3rd in SEC – East

• Beat Charleston So, 53-6
• Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
• Beat Colorado St, 48-10
• Beat Tennessee, 47-21
• #14 Miss St, 6:00 PM ET
• #6 LSU, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• #2 Georgia*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
• Missouri, TBD
• S Carolina, TBD
• Idaho, TBD
• Florida State, TBD

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 4-0 (2-0), 1st in SEC – East

• Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
• Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
• Beat MTSU, 49-7
• Beat Missouri, 43-29
• Tennessee, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• #6 LSU, TBD
• Florida*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
• Kentucky, TBD
• #9 Auburn, TBD
• UMass, TBD
• Georgia Tech, TBD

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 3-1 (1-1), 3rd in SEC – West

• Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
• Beat Alabama St, 63-9
• Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
• Beat Arkansas, 34-3
• Southern Miss, 4:00 PM ET
• #14 Miss St, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• Ole Miss, TBD
• #22 Texas A&M, TBD
• #2 Georgia, TBD
• Liberty, TBD
• #1 Alabama, TBD

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 4-0 (2-0), 1st in SEC – West

• Beat Louisville*, 51-14
• Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
• Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
• Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
• Louisiana, 12:00 PM ET
• Arkansas, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• #6 LSU, TBD
• #14 Miss St, TBD
• The Citadel, TBD
• #9 Auburn, TBD

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-1 (1-1), 3rd in SEC – East

• Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
• Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
• Marshall, Canceled
• Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
• Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
• Missouri, TBD
• #22 Texas A&M, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• Ole Miss, TBD
• Florida, TBD
• Chattanooga, TBD
• #3 Clemson, TBD

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 2-2 (1-0), 1st in C-USA – East

• Beat Fordham, 34-10
• Lost to App St, 45-9
• Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
• Lost to UMass, 49-31
• UAB, 7:00 PM ET
• W Kentucky, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• MTSU, 3:00 PM ET
• Southern Miss, 2:00 PM ET
• Tennessee, TBD
• Marshall, 2:30 PM ET ESPN+
• FIU, 2:00 PM ET
• FAU, 6:00 PM ET

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 4-0 (2-0), 1st in SEC – East

• Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
• Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
• Beat Murray State, 48-10
• Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
• S Carolina, 7:30 PM ET
• #22 Texas A&M, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• #2 Georgia, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• MTSU, TBD
• Louisville, TBD

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 3-1 (0-1), 5th in SEC – East

• Beat UT Martin, 51-14
• Beat Wyoming, 40-13
• Beat Purdue, 40-37
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
• S Carolina, TBD
• #1 Alabama, TBD
• Memphis, TBD
• Kentucky, TBD
• Florida, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• Arkansas, 2:30 PM ET CBS

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 2-2 (0-1), 5th in SEC – East

• Beat MTSU, 35-7
• Beat Nevada, 41-10
• Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
• Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
• Tennessee St, 4:00 PM ET
• #2 Georgia, TBD
• Florida, TBD
• Kentucky, TBD
• Arkansas, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Ole Miss, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD

 

We all know how we got here.

You don’t hire Derek Dooley and Butch Jones in back-to-back searches after Lane Kiffin’s one-and-done and expect any differently. You don’t load up recruiting classes with the layers of players who didn’t pan out in the 2016 and ’17 classes and expect any differently. You don’t keep redefining “rock bottom” as a program every year and expect differently.

Somebody asked me on Twitter if I felt this was finally rock bottom last night as I sat in my Y10 seats and watched the carnage. I said, “No, I think it’s a sublayer.”

In order to enact change, you’ve got to reach a low point.

It isn’t like we’re covering new ground here. It’s been bad for a while, and we all really believed it would probably be bad this year. How bad? Well, we saw last night that it can get ugly, and uglier is coming to a television set near you next week and the in the next few weeks after.

Maybe take a vacation or something if you don’t want to see it. It won’t be pretty.

Caught up in the anger and the frustration of the debacle, I tweeted out that it felt like Tennessee football is dead. Moments later, somebody stormed down the steps furious and said the same thing on his way out. “This program is dead; I’m done. I’m selling all my stuff next week!” he yelled to anybody as he left.

Go on, now. Git. We don’t need you anyway.

Do I think this program is finished? Nah. Do I think last night looked and felt like it? Absolutely. That’s why I typed it.

I love the Vols. You love the Vols. Some of us at times LIVE the Vols. This is intertwined in some of our livelihoods, some of our happiness. When they suck, we have bad days, bad weekends. Those of you who don’t feel that way or don’t let it get to you look at us and laugh or shake your heads. “Get a life,” you think. Some of us have one, but our lives are so much more enriched when the Vols win.

We’ve had a long, frustrating numbness, haven’t we?

By design and in name, this “Sunday Best” column is supposed to be about something good, something positive that happened on Saturday. I’m not going to pump sunshine, though. I felt no goodness out of a 47-21 loss to a bad Florida team. I felt no happiness out of all the turnovers and mistakes. I felt no positive vibes about how the team looked or what players stood out.

It looked like a bad football team and a coaching staff that, at times, got schooled by Florida’s.

But what I did see was an opportunity for the players to get embarrassed, for them to look at the scoreboard, at their body of work on the resume of a football field and say, “You know what? That isn’t good enough.”

Most of the improvement can’t be done by the guys who are now in orange and white. Most of it has to be done by Jeremy Pruitt and Co. in recruiting, a task now tons more difficult by getting destroyed on the field. It’s going to be worse against Georgia, Alabama and probably Auburn, too.

I don’t know the inside information on what happened with linebacker Quart’e Sapp, who reportedly left the field after being asked to go in the game. Pruitt’s postgame press conference shed little light on it, and Sapp came out and tweeted a message to Vol Nation today that he didn’t quit.

Here is better Video from Coach Pruitt press conference regarding LB Quart’e Sapp & the decision to ask him to leave the field after refusing to go in the game. #Vols

Via @TeranJSports pic.twitter.com/k07inqSQmL

— Trey Wallace (@TreyWallace_) September 23, 2018

I don’t know if there was any animosity or ill will behind Trey Smith’s aggressive warmup that left John Mincey injured and angry as he was leaving the field. I don’t know why this team continually hurts each other (looking at the Shy Tuttle helmet “incident” last year, among other things) and won’t do anything like beat the ever-living mess out of Florida defensive end Cece Jefferson after his malicious cheap hit on Jarrett Guarantano during the game. If that happens to my teammate, I’m getting kicked out of the game.

I don’t know why none of this happened, but the fact that it happened and that the world saw it and the fans saw it may help these Vols look in the mirror and realize the in-fighting, the lack of leadership and the other hallmarks of the Butch Jones era must be completely and decisively eradicated in order for any success to enter.

This program is infected with failure, and you cannot blame Pruitt for that. Whether or not he’s the guy and this is the staff to fix it remains unclear, and, sure, offensive coordinator Tyson Helton and offensive line coach Will Friend need to do better than they’ve done so far. The play-calling seems unimaginative, and if the Vols can’t find any linemen who can block better than these, the rebuild is going to take longer than any of us want. But they also need better players to do better, don’t they? They need years of better strength and conditioning, don’t they?

Sometimes, it looks like these are SEC plays that simply aren’t being executed by SEC players.

You can’t blame the new guys for that. There are plenty of things we can blame them for, but that isn’t one of them. So, stop, aight?

That brings us back to the point about what we saw that was positive about yesterday? Well, while we saw those embarrassing things, I also saw a defense that was ripping balls out, getting in the face of Florida players and getting aggressive. Adding to Jeremy Banks’ alpha personality, we saw Alontae Taylor and Bryce Thompson show some swagger. Maybe the Vols’ feelings got hurt. Maybe their pride got hurt. Maybe those glimmers were the seeds of a program-altering response.

I wasn’t the only one who saw these things, even though I saw them through hurt, angry eyes.

Pruitt: I found out a lot about some guys on defense. I saw guys that had a look in their eye and they were competing. That’s a good thing. That’s something we can build on. Am I happy the way the game turned out? No, but we’re trying to build something here.

— GoVols247 (@GoVols247) September 23, 2018

Pruitt: “Just watching the game, I found out a lot about our guys tonight, especially on defense.”

— David Ubben (@davidubben) September 23, 2018

Are those positives? Will they matter? They certainly didn’t last night. But, as Pruitt said, he’s trying to build something here. There is no foundation because there’s no leadership from upperclassmen. There’s no on-the-field mentors from which these younger guys can learn.

As I was walking out of Neyland Stadium last night, I didn’t hear much, which is not normal. Sure, there were the murmurs and the yells throughout the game, but, afterward, I locked eyes with several people who just gave me a worried head-shake. Others looked down. Still others seemed numb to losing by now. Walking up Highland Avenue, I was behind a kid and, presumably, his dad. The kid was about 12, and he said, “Hey dad, you remember that time when the Vols almost beat Alabama? I wish we could get back to that.”

My heart sank. This is where our program is right now. This is what it’s become. The missteps have been many, and though having Phillip Fulmer in the saddle as athletic director is a major step forward, the university and Board of Trustee leadership isn’t yet in place, and the politics involved in those filled seats will go a long way in determining whether this program ever has the infrastructure and support necessary to be great again.

It takes a village, and, right now, we’re just trying to find a handful of players who can be vocal leaders, build a team, rally some hope.

The 1998 national championship team was honored last night, and by the time they were fully recognized, this year’s Vols already had dug themselves a 20-point hole. “I wonder what Al Wilson thinks about this now?” I thought. I bet he feels much the same way we all do — hurt, sad, embarrassed, disappointed, mad.

I hope the current players do, too. If they don’t, then there won’t be anything good that comes out of Saturday night.

I don’t know if the Florida series just feels like it’s full of weirdness to us because they’ve won around three-out-of-four times we’ve faced each other since 1990 and, of course, all but one of them since 2004. I think about some of the ways we beat Kentucky over the years, games that felt like the right team winning to us but, I assume, incredibly cruel and unfortunate to them. And I hate that comparison, sharing Kentucky’s past but not their present.

But last night goes on a crowded list with the second half of ’95, first half of ’96, Alex Brown, Jabar Gaffney, fumbled snaps in the rain, Nathan Peterman, and everything that’s gone wrong in the last five years against this team. Tennessee lost a chance for its new coach to write a new chapter in this rivalry, instead taking a well-worn page from the past: Florida wins, something inexplicable happens to Tennessee.

No matter who you root for, consider the near-impossibility of Tennessee’s first 11 possessions ending without a punt or a touchdown, the two most likely outcomes of any drive. It felt a bit like the reverse Battle of Bristol: I’m quite sure Tennessee wasn’t actually 42 points better than Virginia Tech in the midst of their five fumbles that turned a 14-0 game into a 45-17 hole, but we were happy to oblige if they wanted to keep putting it on the ground. Last night Florida had three touchdown drives of less than 25 yards, and only one required more than 70 yards.

So yes, we know Florida can dominate Tennessee when the Vols turn it over six times. Did we learn anything else that could be useful going forward?

Pruitt’s Aggressiveness

One way the Vols attempted to write a new story in this rivalry, especially after erring on the conservative side under Butch Jones, was to be incredibly aggressive:

• 1Q 4th-and-4 at FLA 38 (14-0 FLA): Incomplete
• 2Q Onside Kick (14-3 FLA): Florida recovers
• 2Q 4th-and-1 at TEN 45 (23-3 FLA): 54-yard completion, fumbled out of the end zone for a touchback

It’s interesting to note that none of these decisions directly hurt the Vols. Florida fumbled immediately following the failed fourth down, the Gators went three-and-out after the onside kick (but did pin the Vols deep for a safety), and obviously the fumble through the end zone was the equivalent of a punt doing the same. Tennessee didn’t lose because they were overly aggressive, but they failed to make those aggressive choices count.

What did those decisions tell us about Jeremy Pruitt? Time will tell if that was big-game aggressiveness or something we can expect from him every week. But, if anything can be refreshing in a six-turnover loss, that was. His decision to go for two and try another onside kick when the Vols cut it to 19 with five minutes to go falls in line here too, and I thought this…

Pruitt said he called goal line defense on the final long TD run. Wanted to give his team a chance to try and win. “We knew if they broke the line, they were going to score. … What’s the difference in 40 and 47?”

— David Ubben (@davidubben) September 23, 2018

…was straight out of Madden. We’ll always be quick to praise the new guy for not being what the guy who got fired was. But I like having a coach who’d rather try every last thing to win and lose by 26 than worry about how that might make him look and settle for losing by 19.

Just Because It’s Not Shotgun…

Much the same as the West Virginia game, the Vols put themselves in bad situations on third down for much of the first quarter. For the second week in a row, Tennessee is ranked 129th nationally in yards per carry in the first quarter (via Sports Source Analytics).

But once the Vols started getting their act together on first and second down, they still couldn’t get it done on third-and-short. Tennessee had to settle for a 32-yard field goal that cut it to 14-3 when Ty Chandler was stuffed on 3rd-and-1. Two cracks at coming off their own two yard line ended in a safety. The long pass to Austin Pope happened because Madre London was denied on 3rd-and-1. And on Tennessee’s first touchdown drive, the Vols had 1st-and-goal at the 4 and went no gain, incomplete, pass interference, one yard, no gain, and finally a one yard touchdown on 3rd-and-goal at the one.

I like seeing the Vols in the I-formation instead of shotgun too, but it hasn’t made us much more fruitful in short yardage. If Tennessee can’t line up and get a yard against the Gators, they almost certainly won’t the next three times out. Maybe this particular unit can have more success in November, maybe not. But we simply do not block well enough to impose our will on third-and-short.

What Now?

The game and the opportunity in this rivalry were lost. But I think much of what we’re also feeling comes from who Tennessee plays next.

It’s just awfully tough to imagine Tennessee beating Georgia, Auburn, or Alabama (plus a bye week). Some will throw South Carolina in Columbia in there too. If that’s the case, you’re 2-6 with Charlotte and the usual SEC East November left, needing to win all four to get bowl eligible. Derek Dooley’s Vols did it in his first season, sparked by the switch to Tyler Bray. But they did not face anything as good as the 2018 versions of Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt appear to be. The Cats, in particular, are at this point almost the equal of Auburn in S&P+.

I’m an optimist by trade and design, and I’ll have us at around 4.25 wins when our weekly win total calculator comes out tomorrow. That’s depressing. We knew it would be more about progress than results this year, but I know we hoped that would be the difference between 5-7 and 6-6. Instead, it’s trying to find anything positive from a six turnover performance against our most relevant rival while our secondary rivals look like the very best versions of themselves. This is bad, it might be very bad, and it might be somewhere between a long and very long time before we’re something more.

This is, in some ways, both the challenge and the opportunity now before Jeremy Pruitt. Expectations are lower than ever. Can he keep his team together over the next few weeks? Can they still be better, regardless of result, in November than they are in September? Can he rally these guys around the idea that, nevermind Georgia or Alabama, nobody believes they can win six games?

The long-term answer is in recruiting, where the Vols are currently fine despite a bad on-field impression on a lot of high-level prospects last night. Pruitt’s boss, who knows both the value of recruiting at Tennessee and the pain of impossible things happening to you against the Gators, can be helpful in reminding us all to keep pulling in the same direction even if we’re not as strong as we thought we were at first.

Objectively, the Vols are 59th in S&P+ right now. Last year they finished 107th. That metric currently projects the Vols to lose by 27, 18, and 27 in their next three games. Like it or not, progress is going to feel like the pursuit of moral victories for a minute here. But last year Quinten Dormady lost to Georgia by 41 and Jarrett Guarantano to Alabama by 38, both averaging less than three yards per play.

There’s only one way to feel after losing to Florida like that, and we know it well. There are few warm fuzzies available over the next few weeks, and we knew that coming in. So it may not be a lot of fun for now. But it doesn’t mean the Vols haven’t made baby steps of progress already. And it doesn’t mean there isn’t progress available every week, if Pruitt can keep this team together and moving forward. I’m sure this wasn’t the start he envisioned, especially the way the game went last night. We lost an opportunity. What will we find in the next few weeks?