Gameday on Rocky Top

Not quite 24 hours later, my count-to-10 impression actually hasn’t changed much from what I wrote immediately after the Vols-Gators game last night. The stats aren’t as bad as you might think, but the turnovers are awful and, worse, too many of the turnovers are attributable to an apparently incurable cause.

So, do we feel worse about the team’s 2018 prospects today than we did last week? Yes. How much worse? More than we want to dwell on?

Not only that, but Tennessee’s upcoming opponents all look like what Will is calling the very best versions of themselves. The forecast post-Florida is quite gloomy indeed.

My new expected win total after Week 4 is 4.55, down from 5.5 last week. I have Georgia and Alabama at 5% (down from 10%), Auburn steady at 15%, Kentucky and South Carolina at 25% (down from 40%), Missouri steady at 40%, Vanderbilt as a toss-up, and Charlotte at 90% (down from 95%).

Use the form below to calculate yours and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

• Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
• Beat ETSU, 59-3
• Beat UTEP, 24-0
• Lost to Florida, 47-21
• #2 Georgia, TBD
• #9 Auburn, TBD
• #1 Alabama, TBD
• S Carolina, TBD
• Charlotte, TBD
• Kentucky, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 3-0 (1-0), 1st in Big 12

• Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
• Beat YSU, 52-17
• NC State, Canceled
• Beat Kansas St, 35-6
• Texas Tech, 12:00 PM ET
• Kansas, TBD
• Iowa State, TBD
• Baylor, 7:00 PM ET FOX Sports 1
• Texas, TBD
• #17 TCU, TBD
• #15 Oklahoma St, TBD
• #5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 3-1 (2-0), 1st in Southern

• Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
• Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
• Beat VMI, 27-24
• Beat Furman, 29-27
• Chattanooga, 7:30 PM ET ESPN+
• Gardner-Webb, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• The Citadel, 2:00 PM ET
• Wofford, 1:30 PM ET ESPN+
• W Carolina, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• Mercer, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
• Samford, 1:00 PM ET

UTEP Miners

Current record: 0-4 (0-0), 2nd in C-USA – West

• Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
• Lost to UNLV, 52-24
• Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
• Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
• UTSA, 7:00 PM ET ESPN+
• North Texas, 7:30 PM ET
• LA Tech, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• UAB, 7:30 PM ET ESPN+
• Rice, 3:30 PM ET
• MTSU, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
• W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
• Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+

Florida Gators

Current record: 3-1 (1-1), 3rd in SEC – East

• Beat Charleston So, 53-6
• Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
• Beat Colorado St, 48-10
• Beat Tennessee, 47-21
• #14 Miss St, 6:00 PM ET
• #6 LSU, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• #2 Georgia*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
• Missouri, TBD
• S Carolina, TBD
• Idaho, TBD
• Florida State, TBD

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 4-0 (2-0), 1st in SEC – East

• Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
• Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
• Beat MTSU, 49-7
• Beat Missouri, 43-29
• Tennessee, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• #6 LSU, TBD
• Florida*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
• Kentucky, TBD
• #9 Auburn, TBD
• UMass, TBD
• Georgia Tech, TBD

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 3-1 (1-1), 3rd in SEC – West

• Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
• Beat Alabama St, 63-9
• Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
• Beat Arkansas, 34-3
• Southern Miss, 4:00 PM ET
• #14 Miss St, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• Ole Miss, TBD
• #22 Texas A&M, TBD
• #2 Georgia, TBD
• Liberty, TBD
• #1 Alabama, TBD

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 4-0 (2-0), 1st in SEC – West

• Beat Louisville*, 51-14
• Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
• Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
• Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
• Louisiana, 12:00 PM ET
• Arkansas, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• #6 LSU, TBD
• #14 Miss St, TBD
• The Citadel, TBD
• #9 Auburn, TBD

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-1 (1-1), 3rd in SEC – East

• Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
• Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
• Marshall, Canceled
• Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
• Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
• Missouri, TBD
• #22 Texas A&M, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• Ole Miss, TBD
• Florida, TBD
• Chattanooga, TBD
• #3 Clemson, TBD

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 2-2 (1-0), 1st in C-USA – East

• Beat Fordham, 34-10
• Lost to App St, 45-9
• Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
• Lost to UMass, 49-31
• UAB, 7:00 PM ET
• W Kentucky, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• MTSU, 3:00 PM ET
• Southern Miss, 2:00 PM ET
• Tennessee, TBD
• Marshall, 2:30 PM ET ESPN+
• FIU, 2:00 PM ET
• FAU, 6:00 PM ET

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 4-0 (2-0), 1st in SEC – East

• Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
• Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
• Beat Murray State, 48-10
• Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
• S Carolina, 7:30 PM ET
• #22 Texas A&M, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• #2 Georgia, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• MTSU, TBD
• Louisville, TBD

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 3-1 (0-1), 5th in SEC – East

• Beat UT Martin, 51-14
• Beat Wyoming, 40-13
• Beat Purdue, 40-37
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
• S Carolina, TBD
• #1 Alabama, TBD
• Memphis, TBD
• Kentucky, TBD
• Florida, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• Arkansas, 2:30 PM ET CBS

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 2-2 (0-1), 5th in SEC – East

• Beat MTSU, 35-7
• Beat Nevada, 41-10
• Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
• Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
• Tennessee St, 4:00 PM ET
• #2 Georgia, TBD
• Florida, TBD
• Kentucky, TBD
• Arkansas, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Ole Miss, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD

 

We all know how we got here.

You don’t hire Derek Dooley and Butch Jones in back-to-back searches after Lane Kiffin’s one-and-done and expect any differently. You don’t load up recruiting classes with the layers of players who didn’t pan out in the 2016 and ’17 classes and expect any differently. You don’t keep redefining “rock bottom” as a program every year and expect differently.

Somebody asked me on Twitter if I felt this was finally rock bottom last night as I sat in my Y10 seats and watched the carnage. I said, “No, I think it’s a sublayer.”

In order to enact change, you’ve got to reach a low point.

It isn’t like we’re covering new ground here. It’s been bad for a while, and we all really believed it would probably be bad this year. How bad? Well, we saw last night that it can get ugly, and uglier is coming to a television set near you next week and the in the next few weeks after.

Maybe take a vacation or something if you don’t want to see it. It won’t be pretty.

Caught up in the anger and the frustration of the debacle, I tweeted out that it felt like Tennessee football is dead. Moments later, somebody stormed down the steps furious and said the same thing on his way out. “This program is dead; I’m done. I’m selling all my stuff next week!” he yelled to anybody as he left.

Go on, now. Git. We don’t need you anyway.

Do I think this program is finished? Nah. Do I think last night looked and felt like it? Absolutely. That’s why I typed it.

I love the Vols. You love the Vols. Some of us at times LIVE the Vols. This is intertwined in some of our livelihoods, some of our happiness. When they suck, we have bad days, bad weekends. Those of you who don’t feel that way or don’t let it get to you look at us and laugh or shake your heads. “Get a life,” you think. Some of us have one, but our lives are so much more enriched when the Vols win.

We’ve had a long, frustrating numbness, haven’t we?

By design and in name, this “Sunday Best” column is supposed to be about something good, something positive that happened on Saturday. I’m not going to pump sunshine, though. I felt no goodness out of a 47-21 loss to a bad Florida team. I felt no happiness out of all the turnovers and mistakes. I felt no positive vibes about how the team looked or what players stood out.

It looked like a bad football team and a coaching staff that, at times, got schooled by Florida’s.

But what I did see was an opportunity for the players to get embarrassed, for them to look at the scoreboard, at their body of work on the resume of a football field and say, “You know what? That isn’t good enough.”

Most of the improvement can’t be done by the guys who are now in orange and white. Most of it has to be done by Jeremy Pruitt and Co. in recruiting, a task now tons more difficult by getting destroyed on the field. It’s going to be worse against Georgia, Alabama and probably Auburn, too.

I don’t know the inside information on what happened with linebacker Quart’e Sapp, who reportedly left the field after being asked to go in the game. Pruitt’s postgame press conference shed little light on it, and Sapp came out and tweeted a message to Vol Nation today that he didn’t quit.

Here is better Video from Coach Pruitt press conference regarding LB Quart’e Sapp & the decision to ask him to leave the field after refusing to go in the game. #Vols

Via @TeranJSports pic.twitter.com/k07inqSQmL

— Trey Wallace (@TreyWallace_) September 23, 2018

I don’t know if there was any animosity or ill will behind Trey Smith’s aggressive warmup that left John Mincey injured and angry as he was leaving the field. I don’t know why this team continually hurts each other (looking at the Shy Tuttle helmet “incident” last year, among other things) and won’t do anything like beat the ever-living mess out of Florida defensive end Cece Jefferson after his malicious cheap hit on Jarrett Guarantano during the game. If that happens to my teammate, I’m getting kicked out of the game.

I don’t know why none of this happened, but the fact that it happened and that the world saw it and the fans saw it may help these Vols look in the mirror and realize the in-fighting, the lack of leadership and the other hallmarks of the Butch Jones era must be completely and decisively eradicated in order for any success to enter.

This program is infected with failure, and you cannot blame Pruitt for that. Whether or not he’s the guy and this is the staff to fix it remains unclear, and, sure, offensive coordinator Tyson Helton and offensive line coach Will Friend need to do better than they’ve done so far. The play-calling seems unimaginative, and if the Vols can’t find any linemen who can block better than these, the rebuild is going to take longer than any of us want. But they also need better players to do better, don’t they? They need years of better strength and conditioning, don’t they?

Sometimes, it looks like these are SEC plays that simply aren’t being executed by SEC players.

You can’t blame the new guys for that. There are plenty of things we can blame them for, but that isn’t one of them. So, stop, aight?

That brings us back to the point about what we saw that was positive about yesterday? Well, while we saw those embarrassing things, I also saw a defense that was ripping balls out, getting in the face of Florida players and getting aggressive. Adding to Jeremy Banks’ alpha personality, we saw Alontae Taylor and Bryce Thompson show some swagger. Maybe the Vols’ feelings got hurt. Maybe their pride got hurt. Maybe those glimmers were the seeds of a program-altering response.

I wasn’t the only one who saw these things, even though I saw them through hurt, angry eyes.

Pruitt: I found out a lot about some guys on defense. I saw guys that had a look in their eye and they were competing. That’s a good thing. That’s something we can build on. Am I happy the way the game turned out? No, but we’re trying to build something here.

— GoVols247 (@GoVols247) September 23, 2018

Pruitt: “Just watching the game, I found out a lot about our guys tonight, especially on defense.”

— David Ubben (@davidubben) September 23, 2018

Are those positives? Will they matter? They certainly didn’t last night. But, as Pruitt said, he’s trying to build something here. There is no foundation because there’s no leadership from upperclassmen. There’s no on-the-field mentors from which these younger guys can learn.

As I was walking out of Neyland Stadium last night, I didn’t hear much, which is not normal. Sure, there were the murmurs and the yells throughout the game, but, afterward, I locked eyes with several people who just gave me a worried head-shake. Others looked down. Still others seemed numb to losing by now. Walking up Highland Avenue, I was behind a kid and, presumably, his dad. The kid was about 12, and he said, “Hey dad, you remember that time when the Vols almost beat Alabama? I wish we could get back to that.”

My heart sank. This is where our program is right now. This is what it’s become. The missteps have been many, and though having Phillip Fulmer in the saddle as athletic director is a major step forward, the university and Board of Trustee leadership isn’t yet in place, and the politics involved in those filled seats will go a long way in determining whether this program ever has the infrastructure and support necessary to be great again.

It takes a village, and, right now, we’re just trying to find a handful of players who can be vocal leaders, build a team, rally some hope.

The 1998 national championship team was honored last night, and by the time they were fully recognized, this year’s Vols already had dug themselves a 20-point hole. “I wonder what Al Wilson thinks about this now?” I thought. I bet he feels much the same way we all do — hurt, sad, embarrassed, disappointed, mad.

I hope the current players do, too. If they don’t, then there won’t be anything good that comes out of Saturday night.

I don’t know if the Florida series just feels like it’s full of weirdness to us because they’ve won around three-out-of-four times we’ve faced each other since 1990 and, of course, all but one of them since 2004. I think about some of the ways we beat Kentucky over the years, games that felt like the right team winning to us but, I assume, incredibly cruel and unfortunate to them. And I hate that comparison, sharing Kentucky’s past but not their present.

But last night goes on a crowded list with the second half of ’95, first half of ’96, Alex Brown, Jabar Gaffney, fumbled snaps in the rain, Nathan Peterman, and everything that’s gone wrong in the last five years against this team. Tennessee lost a chance for its new coach to write a new chapter in this rivalry, instead taking a well-worn page from the past: Florida wins, something inexplicable happens to Tennessee.

No matter who you root for, consider the near-impossibility of Tennessee’s first 11 possessions ending without a punt or a touchdown, the two most likely outcomes of any drive. It felt a bit like the reverse Battle of Bristol: I’m quite sure Tennessee wasn’t actually 42 points better than Virginia Tech in the midst of their five fumbles that turned a 14-0 game into a 45-17 hole, but we were happy to oblige if they wanted to keep putting it on the ground. Last night Florida had three touchdown drives of less than 25 yards, and only one required more than 70 yards.

So yes, we know Florida can dominate Tennessee when the Vols turn it over six times. Did we learn anything else that could be useful going forward?

Pruitt’s Aggressiveness

One way the Vols attempted to write a new story in this rivalry, especially after erring on the conservative side under Butch Jones, was to be incredibly aggressive:

• 1Q 4th-and-4 at FLA 38 (14-0 FLA): Incomplete
• 2Q Onside Kick (14-3 FLA): Florida recovers
• 2Q 4th-and-1 at TEN 45 (23-3 FLA): 54-yard completion, fumbled out of the end zone for a touchback

It’s interesting to note that none of these decisions directly hurt the Vols. Florida fumbled immediately following the failed fourth down, the Gators went three-and-out after the onside kick (but did pin the Vols deep for a safety), and obviously the fumble through the end zone was the equivalent of a punt doing the same. Tennessee didn’t lose because they were overly aggressive, but they failed to make those aggressive choices count.

What did those decisions tell us about Jeremy Pruitt? Time will tell if that was big-game aggressiveness or something we can expect from him every week. But, if anything can be refreshing in a six-turnover loss, that was. His decision to go for two and try another onside kick when the Vols cut it to 19 with five minutes to go falls in line here too, and I thought this…

Pruitt said he called goal line defense on the final long TD run. Wanted to give his team a chance to try and win. “We knew if they broke the line, they were going to score. … What’s the difference in 40 and 47?”

— David Ubben (@davidubben) September 23, 2018

…was straight out of Madden. We’ll always be quick to praise the new guy for not being what the guy who got fired was. But I like having a coach who’d rather try every last thing to win and lose by 26 than worry about how that might make him look and settle for losing by 19.

Just Because It’s Not Shotgun…

Much the same as the West Virginia game, the Vols put themselves in bad situations on third down for much of the first quarter. For the second week in a row, Tennessee is ranked 129th nationally in yards per carry in the first quarter (via Sports Source Analytics).

But once the Vols started getting their act together on first and second down, they still couldn’t get it done on third-and-short. Tennessee had to settle for a 32-yard field goal that cut it to 14-3 when Ty Chandler was stuffed on 3rd-and-1. Two cracks at coming off their own two yard line ended in a safety. The long pass to Austin Pope happened because Madre London was denied on 3rd-and-1. And on Tennessee’s first touchdown drive, the Vols had 1st-and-goal at the 4 and went no gain, incomplete, pass interference, one yard, no gain, and finally a one yard touchdown on 3rd-and-goal at the one.

I like seeing the Vols in the I-formation instead of shotgun too, but it hasn’t made us much more fruitful in short yardage. If Tennessee can’t line up and get a yard against the Gators, they almost certainly won’t the next three times out. Maybe this particular unit can have more success in November, maybe not. But we simply do not block well enough to impose our will on third-and-short.

What Now?

The game and the opportunity in this rivalry were lost. But I think much of what we’re also feeling comes from who Tennessee plays next.

It’s just awfully tough to imagine Tennessee beating Georgia, Auburn, or Alabama (plus a bye week). Some will throw South Carolina in Columbia in there too. If that’s the case, you’re 2-6 with Charlotte and the usual SEC East November left, needing to win all four to get bowl eligible. Derek Dooley’s Vols did it in his first season, sparked by the switch to Tyler Bray. But they did not face anything as good as the 2018 versions of Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt appear to be. The Cats, in particular, are at this point almost the equal of Auburn in S&P+.

I’m an optimist by trade and design, and I’ll have us at around 4.25 wins when our weekly win total calculator comes out tomorrow. That’s depressing. We knew it would be more about progress than results this year, but I know we hoped that would be the difference between 5-7 and 6-6. Instead, it’s trying to find anything positive from a six turnover performance against our most relevant rival while our secondary rivals look like the very best versions of themselves. This is bad, it might be very bad, and it might be somewhere between a long and very long time before we’re something more.

This is, in some ways, both the challenge and the opportunity now before Jeremy Pruitt. Expectations are lower than ever. Can he keep his team together over the next few weeks? Can they still be better, regardless of result, in November than they are in September? Can he rally these guys around the idea that, nevermind Georgia or Alabama, nobody believes they can win six games?

The long-term answer is in recruiting, where the Vols are currently fine despite a bad on-field impression on a lot of high-level prospects last night. Pruitt’s boss, who knows both the value of recruiting at Tennessee and the pain of impossible things happening to you against the Gators, can be helpful in reminding us all to keep pulling in the same direction even if we’re not as strong as we thought we were at first.

Objectively, the Vols are 59th in S&P+ right now. Last year they finished 107th. That metric currently projects the Vols to lose by 27, 18, and 27 in their next three games. Like it or not, progress is going to feel like the pursuit of moral victories for a minute here. But last year Quinten Dormady lost to Georgia by 41 and Jarrett Guarantano to Alabama by 38, both averaging less than three yards per play.

There’s only one way to feel after losing to Florida like that, and we know it well. There are few warm fuzzies available over the next few weeks, and we knew that coming in. So it may not be a lot of fun for now. But it doesn’t mean the Vols haven’t made baby steps of progress already. And it doesn’t mean there isn’t progress available every week, if Pruitt can keep this team together and moving forward. I’m sure this wasn’t the start he envisioned, especially the way the game went last night. We lost an opportunity. What will we find in the next few weeks?

Earlier this week, all three of the GRT front page authors predicted a one-point victory for the Tennessee Volunteers over the Florida Gators this week. That wasn’t nearly as amusing/humorous/appalling on Thursday as it might seem right now. After all, there were some very good reasons for thinking such things, none of which matter now.

If you don’t care about the Vols, you don’t care what happened this evening, and if you do care about them, you don’t need me to remind you.

But the short version is this: The Vols didn’t just shoot themselves in the foot. They managed to hit both feet, along with every extremity and most vital internal organs. The self-inflicted wounds were catastrophic from every angle. Too many, too often, in the wrong part of the field, at the wrong time, and against the wrong team. It was a veritable box of chocolates, every one a reeking surprise.

It’s too bad, too, because all of that will rightfully obscure some facts that suggest this should have indeed been a one-point game:

• Tennessee had 18 first downs to Florida’s 14;
• The Vols were 8-17 on third down and held the Gators to 3-11;
• The two teams were only 24 total yards apart;
• Florida actually committed more penalties than did the Vols.

The two teams were even in almost everything that mattered. But all of that was completely undone by Tennessee’s six (6!) turnovers and a first-half drive chart that featured three fumbles, an interception, a turnover on downs, and a safety just for good measure. The Vols didn’t punt until the 8:26 mark of the third quarter but were at that time still losing 33-6.

The hardest truth confronting the team right now is that those turnovers may not be mere flukes that will suddenly appear against the Gators and disappear when those ghosts are gone.

I fear far too many of the turnover problems are directly attributable to the offensive line’s struggles. The first fumble occurred when Jarrett Guarantano was blindsided while attempting to pass. The interception happened on the next drive, with the team backed up and the Gators’ defense bearing down. Another fumble was caused by a low snap. The safety, of course, was the o-line simply getting pushed back into the end zone, leaving nowhere for the running back to go but down to the turf.

It’s tempting to conclude that the line is failing on every play, but it’s really not. At times, they can give the quarterback enough protection to take shots far downfield. At times, they can block well enough to spring a running back for a big gain.

But far too often, they block poorly enough to get their quarterback injured or their running back tackled behind the spot where he started, and when the defense is living in your space and your head, bad things happen.

That’s what happened tonight. Whether there’s anything that can be done about it this season, well, that’s a very good question.