Your Gameday Gameplan: Tennessee-South Carolina

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the 3-4 (1-3) Tennessee Vols traveling to South Carolina to take on the 3-3 (2-3) Gamecocks at 7:30 on the SEC Network. Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Vols fans. Where and when to find the Vols game on TV, what other games to watch, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

The best other games for Vols fans to watch today

Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated just for Vols fans:

Saturday, October 27, 2018
Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON SLATE
No. 2 Clemson Florida State 12:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Team
No. 20 Wisconsin Northwestern 12:00 PM FOX Channel Hop Top 25 Team
AFTERNOON SLATE
No. 18 Iowa No. 17 Penn State 3:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup
No. 9 Florida No. 7 Georgia 3:30 PM CBS Channel Hop - Priority 1 Former Opponents
No. 12 Kentucky Missouri 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Future Opponents
EVENING SLATE
Tennessee South Carolina 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN Live Go Vols!

 

And here’s a searchable version of the entire college football TV schedule for the day:

Date Away Home Time TV
Thu Oct 25 Baylor No. 13 West Virginia 7:00 PM FS1
Thu Oct 25 Ball State Ohio 7:00 PM CBSSN
Thu Oct 25 Toledo Western Michigan 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Thu Oct 25 No. 25 Appalachian State Georgia Southern 7:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Thu Oct 25 Georgia Tech Virginia Tech 7:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Fri Oct 26 Louisiana Tech Florida Atlantic 6:30 PM CBSSN
Fri Oct 26 Miami Boston College 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Fri Oct 26 Indiana Minnesota 8:00 PM FS1
Fri Oct 26 Wyoming Colorado State 10:00 PM CBSSN
Fri Oct 26 No. 23 Utah UCLA 10:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 No. 2 Clemson Florida State 12:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 No. 20 Wisconsin Northwestern 12:00 PM FOX
Sat Oct 27 Army Eastern Michigan 12:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Oct 27 Bethune-Cookman Nebraska 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Oct 27 Central Michigan Akron 12:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Oct 27 Purdue Michigan State 12:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 Texas Tech Iowa State 12:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 UMass UConn 12:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 Vanderbilt Arkansas 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 Wake Forest Louisville 12:00 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 North Carolina Virginia 12:20 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 Coastal Carolina Georgia State 2:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 27 Southern Mississippi Charlotte 2:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Oct 27 Oregon State Colorado 3:00 PM PAC12
Sat Oct 27 TCU Kansas 3:00 PM FS1
Sat Oct 27 No. 18 Iowa No. 17 Penn State 3:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 No. 9 Florida No. 7 Georgia 3:30 PM CBS
Sat Oct 27 Kansas State No. 8 Oklahoma 3:30 PM FOX
Sat Oct 27 No. 21 South Florida Houston 3:30 PM ABC, ESPN2
Sat Oct 27 Arizona State USC 3:30 PM ABC, ESPN2
Sat Oct 27 Cincinnati SMU 3:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Oct 27 Duke Pittsburgh 3:30 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 Illinois Maryland 3:30 PM BTN
Sat Oct 27 Middle Tennessee Old Dominion 3:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 27 Northern Illinois BYU 3:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 No. 12 Kentucky Missouri 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 New Mexico Utah State 4:00 PM
Sat Oct 27 Rice North Texas 4:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 27 No. 15 Washington California 6:30 PM FS1
Sat Oct 27 UNLV San Jose State 6:30 PM
Sat Oct 27 No. 14 Washington State No. 24 Stanford 7:00 PM PAC12
Sat Oct 27 No. 16 Texas A&M Mississippi State 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 No. 22 NC State Syracuse 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 Arkansas State Louisiana 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 27 Boise State Air Force 7:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Oct 27 New Mexico State Texas State 7:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Oct 27 Tulane Tulsa 7:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 Tennessee South Carolina 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 Florida Intl Western Kentucky 7:30 PM
Sat Oct 27 UAB UTEP 7:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 27 No. 3 Notre Dame Navy 8:00 PM CBS
Sat Oct 27 No. 6 Texas Oklahoma State 8:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 No. 19 Oregon Arizona 10:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 Hawai'i Fresno State 10:30 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 San Diego State Nevada 10:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN

 

GRT games and contests

While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.

GRT game-week audio

Here’s Will’s regular Friday appearance with Josh Ward and Will West on WNML’s Sports 180:

Pre-game prep

And to catch up on on your pre-game reading, have a look at our game preview posts from earlier this week:

Go Vols!

Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game: South Carolina edition

It’s (past) time for this week’s edition of the GRT Guessing Game. If you are new here and have no idea what this is all about, you can find out everything you need to know here. Last week’s results are here.

Let’sa go!

  1. Submit your answers to our three questions below.
  2. Click the “Submit” button.
  3. Copy and paste your answers in the comments below.

Good luck!

Every Time We Go To Columbia…

Tennessee and South Carolina have been annual rivals for 26 years now. But after Carolina’s initial upset in 1992 – the final nail in Johnny Majors’ coffin – the rivalry lacked much importance during a 12-game Tennessee winning streak. That changed when Steve Spurrier arrived in 2005, beating the Vols in Knoxville. Since then, every Tennessee-South Carolina game in Columbia has become a landmark moment for the Vols in one way or another. It’s in part due to Carolina’s rise under Spurrier. But it’s also just an interesting twist of fate that the Vols have come to Columbia so often at their own crossroads. As Tennessee heads to South Carolina again this weekend, here’s a look back at the last six trips to Williams-Brice Stadium:

2006: The Last November as a Title Contender

On October 28, 2006, the #8 Vols earned a little payback for Spurrier’s win in Knoxville the year before. With College Gameday on hand, Tennessee beat South Carolina 31-24 under the lights in Columbia, turning back a 17-14 Carolina lead at the start of the fourth quarter with a 13-play, 80-yard drive. The win sent the Vols to November at 7-1, the only blemish a one-point loss to eventual BCS Champion Florida. But a late game injury would sideline Erik Ainge the following week, when the Vols fell to #13 LSU 28-24. Tennessee hasn’t been in the title conversation in November since then.

2008: Fulmer Forced Out

Already reeling at 3-5, Tennessee was no better at South Carolina. A 27-6 victory for the Gamecocks included just 207 yards from the Clawfense, and days later Fulmer was officially stepping down. He would finish out the season, though the Vols would fall to Wyoming the next week.

2010: Tyler Bray Emerges

The Vols and #20 South Carolina were tied at halftime, but a strip-sack fumble by Matt Simms was returned for a touchdown on the second play of the third quarter. That prompted Derek Dooley to hand the keys to true freshman Tyler Bray. His first pass was a pick six. But it got way better from there: Bray finished 9-of-15 for 159 yards and two touchdowns, helping the Vols rally to tie the game with 13 minutes to play. South Carolina won out behind Marcus Lattimore and Alshon Jeffery, but the Vols found their quarterback. Bray would lead Tennessee to a 4-0 run in November for bowl eligibility, taking several Tennessee freshman records along the way.

2012: Derek Dooley’s Last Chance

At #13 South Carolina, with Dooley’s Vols 3-4 and the head coach still looking for his first ranked win, Tennessee almost made it happen. Rallying back from three different 14-point deficits, Tennessee pulled within three at 38-35 with 8:35 to play, the intercepted Connor Shaw on 4th-and-4 at the UT 30 with 4:46 to go. Tyler Bray got the Vols in the red zone with less than two minutes to go when Jadeveon Clowney – silent all day up to this point – scored a sack/fumble, recovered by the Gamecocks. Dooley wouldn’t officially be fired for another few weeks, but the last of us left the ship on this day in Columbia.

2014: Josh Dobbs Emerges

Perhaps the least-tainted happy memory of the Butch Jones era. A week after entering the Alabama game and raising plenty of eyebrows, Josh Dobbs earned the first start of his sophomore season and never looked back. On the day: 301 yards passing and 166 yards rushing, a new school record for rushing yards by a quarterback. Five total touchdowns, including two in the last five minutes to turn back a 42-28 hole and get the game to overtime. Sacks on first and second down by Curt Maggitt and Derek Barnett led to a missed 58-yard field goal to win it for the Vols. Though the ultimate end for Butch Jones wasn’t what we wanted, this game remains the beginning of the real hope for something more. From November 1, 2014 to October 1, 2016 the Vols went 18-5 with wins over four ranked teams, those five losses by Jones’ now-infamous 25 points. Then we lost to Texas A&M in double overtime and got smoked by Alabama. And then…

2016: The End of the Beginning of the End for Butch Jones

Still alive in the SEC East race and in total control of their own destiny for the New Year’s Six, having survived a gauntlet of four straight ranked teams plus the Battle of Bristol, and coming off a bye week…the Vols lost to South Carolina 24-21 as a 14.5-point favorite. Dobbs, so spectacular two years earlier against the Gamecocks, was 12-of-26 for 161 yards passing and just 27 yards rushing. This was Jalen Hurd’s final game in a Tennessee uniform. And for Jones, it ended any association with that 18-5 run: 4-4 in their last eight in 2016, then 4-8 in 2017.

 

Locks & Keys Week 9: Solving the Muschamp Puzzle

Will Muschamp is not a good football coach.

There is empirical evidence supporting this. It was obvious at Florida, and even though there have been some flashes at South Carolina, we’re beginning to see it this year as the Steve Spurrier recruits fade away and Muschamp gets “his” players in Columbia. The Gamecocks are 3-3 and have underachieved this entire year.

Yet, Will Muschamp owns Tennessee.

That same evidence we spoke of is present here, too, given the fact the Vols have never beaten Muschamp and his smart-aleck attitude during his days as a head coach. It doesn’t matter how much trash he talks or how garbage his attitude is or how good or bad his teams are, they always one-up the Vols.

Can Jeremy Pruitt put an end to that? In fairness to UT, the Vols have been coached by Butch Jones and Derek Dooley during Muschamp’s era as a head football coach, so it isn’t like Bryant, Saban or Lombardi was leading them through the ‘T’, but that is no excuse for Muschamp holding this sort of ownership of the Vols.

Tennessee has to do something about that. The Vols probably aren’t as good as the Gamecocks this year, but they weren’t as good as Auburn, either, and won. It can happen, and a win this week breaks the curse and propels UT toward a probable bowl berth.

Yeah, it’s that big. Let’s take a look at the Locks & Keys.

KEYS

Make the right QB decision

There hasn’t been much this week on the health of Jarrett Guarantano. He’s been at practice, and he’s been going through reps, even if some of the reporters who’ve seen limited reps say he doesn’t show the same zip on his passes or look fully healthy after the blow he took last week against Alabama.

If that’s the case, Keller Chryst needs to start.

Pruitt is faced with a bit of a quarterback conundrum this week. Chryst looked strong in relief of JG, but JG had a career game against the Auburn Tigers the week before. The decision Pruitt makes on who is under center will have a direct impact on the game, and whoever he choses, the other guy needs to be ready, and the coaching staff doesn’t need to hesitate to go in the other direction.

This is the “real” season, and every decision matters. The guess here is JG will go, but if he isn’t himself, it’s time to try Chryst. The postseason may very well be on the line.

Play for Trey

Just devastating news that Trey Smith again is dealing with blood clot issues in his lungs. Not only does this mean his season is in jeopardy, but his football career is, too. If he continues to play, though, his life could be. That is paramount to get him healthy and to ensure he has the quality of life needed to be a productive citizen, a father, a husband, live a life. Those are the vital things.

Football is secondary.

But this is a football column, and we have to talk about how this impacts the Vols. Smith had struggled much of the season after a 6-month layoff, but you’re still talking about losing your most talented football player who started every game at left tackle this season. For an offensive line already struggling mightily, that’s going to be a huge puzzle piece to replace. Where do the Vols go from here?

One thing is certain: They need to rally behind this. The offensive line needs to play for its fallen brother, and the run game needs to start being able to find some lanes behind this rebuilt O-line. It’s not like they’re playing the Crimson Tide or AU Tigers this weekend. Carolina is 12th in the league in rush defense, so the Vols need to do some positives things on the ground.

Limit Bentley

The Gamecocks are hellbent on playing Jake Bentley for some reason, though it looks like Michael Scarnecchia is the quarterback who can move the ball vertically best. Tennessee needs to make them pay.

Bentley has been very wishy-washy this year, and he doesn’t need to all of a sudden re-find his form against the Vols. South Carolina has been turning the ball over too much this year, and Bentley has done his share to give the ball to the other team, which means the Vols need to turn back to their old opportunistic ways from the Auburn game.

Bentley is a talented, tough kid who can break out of this season-long slumber. Tennessee has to make sure that he doesn’t. If he plays the way he’s capable, UT isn’t beating South Carolina. That means Pruitt and Co. need to dial up creative blitzes, confuse him and pressure him into mistakes.

Take care of the football

This Tennessee team can’t give away extra possessions; it’s that simple.

If the Vols have two or more turnovers against South Carolina, they will not win the game. The Gamecocks aren’t great on offense, but UT has to win this game with its offense, and, more precisely, the passing game. That means JG or Chryst need to not throw interceptions, and Tennessee can’t put the ball on the ground.

This Tennessee team lives and dies by its ability to take care of the ball and to force the other team into mistakes. Both those things have to keep happening for 2018 version of UT to close the talent gap.

Don’t get run out of Williams-Brice early

Tennessee has been a better road team this year for whatever reason, and that needs to continue against a team that is coming off a bye week with a lot to prove after starting the season 3-3.

The Vols need to make South Carolina punt early, get up a score and take the crowd out of it. That didn’t happen, even in the win over Auburn, as UT has been a slow-starting squad all year. But that has burned UT much of the season. If the Vols are the aggressor in this one, it will really benefit Tennessee.

This could be one of those games where Tennessee stuns everybody again. But it isn’t going to happen if the Vols wait around until the second quarter to get cranking.

Prediction: South Carolina 27, Tennessee 23

LOCKS

Last week was a bit better, as we went 4-3 to regroup and rebound after the 1-6 Nightmare on Par Street prior to my vacation. On the bright side, I picked the Purdue upset, which would have been fantastic if, you know, I had the guts to put real money on it. Western Michigan easily covered over Central Michigan, Cal cruised over Oregon State, and Arkansas did the same against Tulsa.

On the poop-your-pants side, Wisconsin and Illinois stunned everybody and went two touchdowns over the 55-point total. Thought that one would go under easily. Washington State outright pounded Oregon, and North Texas lost outright to UAB.

For the year, I’m 24-25, and, yes, we’re going over .500 this week. The goal for the year is .600, and there is a long way to go to get back there. But it starts this week.

  1. Purdue +2.5 over Michigan State: Several of the games this week fit the “letdown” mode, and, yes, it scares me that I’m picking a few of them. But the Boilermakers offense is too good. No, I don’t think they’re still going to be riding the Ohio State high. Jeff Brohm is a great coach, and this team has turned a corner. They’re going on the road and beating Sparty.
  2. TCU and Kansas over 48.5: TCU’s defense hasn’t really stopped anybody this year, but now Kansas comes to town, and that’s a remedy for any D. The Jayhawks still will score three times, and the Horned Frogs won’t have an issue against KU. This one is going at least 5-7 points over.
  3. Washington State +2.5 over Stanford: Here is another one of those potential letdown games after Wazzu won an emotional game over Oregon a week ago in Pullman with ESPN College GameDay present. Stanford is beyond capable of winning this game in Palo Alto, but I’m not a believer in Stanford’s offense. Give me the Leaches.
  4. Tennessee +8 over South Carolina: I believe in Jeremy Pruitt. I wasn’t sure earlier this year, but I think the Vols are getting there. They are getting the most out of their talent, and I like UT to go on the road this week and at least keep it close, maybe pull out a win.
  5. Texas -3.5 over Oklahoma State: I’m sweating this one, simply because I’m not sure the Longhorns are as good as their No. 6 ranking would lead you to believe. But the word is late this week that quarterback Sam Ehlinger is expected to play. If he does, the Horns roll.
  6. Oregon -9.5 over Arizona: This is a battle of the teams that have let me down this year. Arizona, I was sold on early in the year, and boy oh boy, they let me down. Same with Oregon last week. But Justin Herbert is going to throw all over the Wildcats.
  7. Washington -11 over California: Washington is too much for the Bears. They are going to win this game by 17 or more points.

Tennessee-South Carolina statistical comps preview: Close enough to be interesting

The Vols emerge from The Gauntlet mostly intact and now travel to South Carolina to take on a Gamecocks team coming off a bye week. Has the difficult stretch of the last three or four games made Tennessee stronger or has it taken a toll?

Those intangibles will likely be significant factors in this weekend’s matchup, but first, let’s take a look at the stats and comps to see what the Statsy Preview Machine says.

Predictions

SPM: South Carolina 36, Tennessee 19

Eye- and gut-adjusted: South Carolina 28, Tennessee 24

Tennessee rushing yards: 130

South Carolina rushing yards: 130

Tennessee passing yards: 175

South Carolina passing yards: 260

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 140.7 rushing yards per game, while South Carolina is giving up 179.2 per game. To date, Florida is slightly better at defending the run than South Carolina, allowing 163.1, and Tennessee got 156 against the Gators. On the other hand, Vanderbilt is averaging 141.1 rushing yards per game but got only 92 against the Gamecocks, and the Vols’ rushing offense appears to be getting worse, not better.

Based on that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against South Carolina is 130.

South Carolina rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 162.0 rushing yards per game, while the South Carolina run game is averaging 153.7 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is getting 146.7 yards per game on the ground, and they got 95 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 172.3 rushing yards per game and got 126 against Tennessee. So, with the Vols generally holding the most similar opponents to below their season averages, I’m going with South Carolina getting about 110 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 209.9 passing yards per game, and South Carolina is allowing 199.2. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is giving up 218.5 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 172 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama. They’re allowing 194.5 passing yards per game, and Tennessee somewhat surprisingly got 227 against them.

On the other hand, the Gamecocks’ pass defense generally keeps its most similar opponents to well below their passing yard averages.

Based on all of that, my guess is that Tennessee will put up 175 passing yards this weekend.

South Carolina passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 223.1 passing yards per game. South Carolina is getting 250.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is getting 235.6 yards per game through the air, and they got 190 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is averaging 320.5 passing yards per game and got 429 against Tennessee. The Gamecocks generally get more passing yards than their opponents’ averages, so I’m going with South Carolina getting somewhere around 260 passing yards this week.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 25.9 points per game, and South Carolina is allowing 25.8. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is allowing 31.6 points per game, and Tennessee got 24 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia. They’re allowing 20.5 points per game, and Tennessee got 14 against them. Those games were early in the season, and the Vols scored 21 against Alabama and Florida and 24 against Auburn. So, my prediction is that Tennessee will score right around their average against the Gamecocks. Let’s call it 24 points.

South Carolina scoring

Tennessee is allowing 30.0 points per game. South Carolina is averaging 28.8. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 28.4 points, and they got 24 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 34.4 points and got 47 against Tennessee. The Gamecocks offense has the potential to run away with it, but if it’s a struggle, I like the chances of the Vols defense to hold them below their average.

Looking at things from the Gamecocks’ perspective, though, they got 37 against both Missouri (giving up an average of 30.9 points) and Vanderbilt (average of 24.4).

So . . . I’m going with South Carolina putting up about 28-31 points against Tennessee. Calling it 28.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

Left alone, the SPM says South Carolina 36, Tennessee 19, a spread of -17.

With eyeball and gut adjustments, I’m going with South Carolina 28, Tennessee 24, a spread of -4.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has a 34.2% chance of winning and puts the score at South Carolina 33.7, Tennessee 26.6, a spread of -7.1.

The Vegas spread favors South Carolina by between -7.5 and -8.5, with an over/under of between 53.5-54, which converts to something like 31-23, Gamecocks.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 19.8% chance of winning.

2018 college football TV schedule for Vols fans: Week 9

Thursday and Friday

Thursday, October 25, 2018
Away Home Time TV How Why
Baylor No. 13 West Virginia 7:00 PM FS1 Channel Hop Top 25 Team

 

Friday, October 26, 2018
Away Home Time TV How Why
No. 23 Utah UCLA 10:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Team

 

The Vols don’t play until Saturday night this week, but the slate is full of a variety of tasty appetizers, and they start arriving before you even sit down. Thursday you can get a look at former Vols opponent West Virginia (and also former Vol and current Baylor Bear Jalen Hurd), and on Friday, you can see what new UCLA head coach Chip Kelly is up to as his team takes on No. 23 Utah.

Gameday

Saturday, October 27, 2018
Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON SLATE
No. 2 Clemson Florida State 12:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Team
No. 20 Wisconsin Northwestern 12:00 PM FOX Channel Hop Top 25 Team
AFTERNOON SLATE
No. 18 Iowa No. 17 Penn State 3:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup
No. 9 Florida No. 7 Georgia 3:30 PM CBS Channel Hop - Priority 1 Former Opponents
No. 12 Kentucky Missouri 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Future Opponents
EVENING SLATE
Tennessee South Carolina 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN Live Go Vols!

 

On Gameday, a couple of Top 25 teams are in action at noon, including No. 2 Clemson taking on new FSU head coach Willie Taggart.

The afternoon is all about the World’s Largest Stupid Game Between Two Stupid Tennessee Rivals, but you can also get an early look at two future Vols opponents as No. 12 Kentucky travels to Missouri.

And then the Vols kickoff at South Carolina at 7:30 on the SEC Network. Go Vols. Beat the Gamecocks.

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

Date Away Home Time TV
Thu Oct 25 Baylor No. 13 West Virginia 7:00 PM FS1
Thu Oct 25 Ball State Ohio 7:00 PM CBSSN
Thu Oct 25 Toledo Western Michigan 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Thu Oct 25 No. 25 Appalachian State Georgia Southern 7:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Thu Oct 25 Georgia Tech Virginia Tech 7:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Fri Oct 26 Louisiana Tech Florida Atlantic 6:30 PM CBSSN
Fri Oct 26 Miami Boston College 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Fri Oct 26 Indiana Minnesota 8:00 PM FS1
Fri Oct 26 Wyoming Colorado State 10:00 PM CBSSN
Fri Oct 26 No. 23 Utah UCLA 10:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 No. 2 Clemson Florida State 12:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 No. 20 Wisconsin Northwestern 12:00 PM FOX
Sat Oct 27 Army Eastern Michigan 12:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Oct 27 Bethune-Cookman Nebraska 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Oct 27 Central Michigan Akron 12:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Oct 27 Purdue Michigan State 12:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 Texas Tech Iowa State 12:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 UMass UConn 12:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 Vanderbilt Arkansas 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 Wake Forest Louisville 12:00 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 North Carolina Virginia 12:20 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 Coastal Carolina Georgia State 2:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 27 Southern Mississippi Charlotte 2:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Oct 27 Oregon State Colorado 3:00 PM PAC12
Sat Oct 27 TCU Kansas 3:00 PM FS1
Sat Oct 27 No. 18 Iowa No. 17 Penn State 3:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 No. 9 Florida No. 7 Georgia 3:30 PM CBS
Sat Oct 27 Kansas State No. 8 Oklahoma 3:30 PM FOX
Sat Oct 27 No. 21 South Florida Houston 3:30 PM ABC, ESPN2
Sat Oct 27 Arizona State USC 3:30 PM ABC, ESPN2
Sat Oct 27 Cincinnati SMU 3:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Oct 27 Duke Pittsburgh 3:30 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 Illinois Maryland 3:30 PM BTN
Sat Oct 27 Middle Tennessee Old Dominion 3:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 27 Northern Illinois BYU 3:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 No. 12 Kentucky Missouri 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 New Mexico Utah State 4:00 PM
Sat Oct 27 Rice North Texas 4:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 27 No. 15 Washington California 6:30 PM FS1
Sat Oct 27 UNLV San Jose State 6:30 PM
Sat Oct 27 No. 14 Washington State No. 24 Stanford 7:00 PM PAC12
Sat Oct 27 No. 16 Texas A&M Mississippi State 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 No. 22 NC State Syracuse 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 Arkansas State Louisiana 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 27 Boise State Air Force 7:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Oct 27 New Mexico State Texas State 7:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Oct 27 Tulane Tulsa 7:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 Tennessee South Carolina 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 Florida Intl Western Kentucky 7:30 PM
Sat Oct 27 UAB UTEP 7:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 27 No. 3 Notre Dame Navy 8:00 PM CBS
Sat Oct 27 No. 6 Texas Oklahoma State 8:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 No. 19 Oregon Arizona 10:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 Hawai'i Fresno State 10:30 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 27 San Diego State Nevada 10:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN

Tennessee Vols statistical rankings after The Gauntlet

You’d expect the Vols’ national stat rankings to take a hit after playing Georgia, Auburn, and a historically good Alabama team all in a row, and you do see some of that. But Tennessee seems to have survived that stretch without too much dropoff, and when you compare things to this time last year, you might just be encouraged.

Offense

The Tennessee offense is doing some things really well and some things not well at all, but most the offense is stuck in that middle not-great-not-terrible territory. Overall, though, it is better than this time last year, when it was all just plain terrible.

Defense

I think maybe the most important takeaway here is that Rushing Defense has improved fairly significantly. Great defenses tend to start there and build off it.

Special Teams

Turnovers and Penalties

 

Updated projected win totals for the Vols after Alabama

Tennessee got thumped good by Alabama this weekend, but how did the other teams look, and how does it all affect our expectations for the back half of the season?

My new expected win total:

  • This week: 6.0
  • Last week: 6.3
  • After Week 6: 5.0
  • After Week 5: 4.9
  • After Week 4: 4.55
  • After Week 3: 5.5

I have Kentucky steady at 45%, Missouri and South Carolina steady at 50%, Vanderbilt up to 60% (from 75% last week), and Charlotte steady at 95%. Not much change, really. I think we’re basically looking at four essential tossups, with the order being Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt, with there being a bit of space between the Commodores and the other three.

Use the form below to calculate yours and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 3-4 (1-3), 5th in the SEC East

  • Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
  • Beat ETSU, 59-3
  • Beat UTEP, 24-0
  • Lost to Florida, 47-21
  • Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
  • Beat #21 Auburn, 30-24
  • Lost to #1 Alabama, 58-21
  • S Carolina, TBD
  • Charlotte, TBD
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Vanderbilt, TBD

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 5-1 (3-1), 2nd in Big 12, #13

  • Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
  • Beat YSU, 52-17
  • NC State, Canceled
  • Beat Kansas St, 35-6
  • Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
  • Beat Kansas, 38-22
  • Lost to Iowa State, 30-14
  • Bye
  • Baylor, 7:00 PM ET FOX Sports 1
  • Texas, TBD
  • #17 TCU, TBD
  • #15 Oklahoma St, TBD
  • #5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 6-2 (4-1), 1st in Southern

  • Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
  • Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
  • Beat VMI, 27-24
  • Beat Furman, 29-27
  • Beat Chattanooga, 17-14
  • Beat Gardner-Webb, 45-0
  • Beat The Citadel, 26-23
  • Lost to Wofford, 31-17
  • W Carolina, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • Mercer, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
  • Samford, 1:00 PM ET

UTEP Miners

Current record: 0-7 (0-3), 6th in C-USA – West

  • Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
  • Lost to UNLV, 52-24
  • Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
  • Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
  • Lost to UTSA, 30-21
  • Lost North Texas, 27-24
  • Bye
  • Lost to LA Tech, 31-24
  • UAB, 7:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • Rice, 3:30 PM ET
  • MTSU, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
  • W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
  • Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+

Florida Gators

Current record: 6-1 (4-1), 1st in SEC – East, #9

  • Beat Charleston So, 53-6
  • Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
  • Beat Colorado St, 48-10
  • Beat Tennessee, 47-21
  • Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
  • Beat #5 LSU, 27-19
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 37-27
  • Bye
  • #2 Georgia*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
  • Missouri, TBD
  • S Carolina, TBD
  • Idaho, TBD
  • Florida State, TBD

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 6-1 (4-1), 1st in SEC – East, #7

  • Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
  • Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
  • Beat MTSU, 49-7
  • Beat Missouri, 43-29
  • Beat Tennessee, 38-12
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 41-13
  • Lost to #13 LSU, 36-16
  • Bye
  • Florida*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • #9 Auburn, TBD
  • UMass, TBD
  • Georgia Tech, TBD

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 5-3 (2-3), 4th in SEC – West

  • Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
  • Beat Alabama St, 63-9
  • Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
  • Beat Arkansas, 34-3
  • Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
  • Lost to Miss St, 23-9
  • Lost to Tennessee, 30-24
  • Beat Ole Miss, 31-16
  • Texas A&M, TBD
  • Georgia, TBD
  • Liberty, TBD
  • Alabama, TBD

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 8-0 (5-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1

  • Beat Louisville*, 51-14
  • Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
  • Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
  • Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
  • Beat Louisiana, 56-14
  • Beat Arkansas, 65-31
  • Beat Missouri, 39-10
  • Beat Tennessee, 58-21
  • LSU, TBD
  • Miss St, TBD
  • The Citadel, TBD
  • Auburn, TBD

The Vols’ future opponents

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 3-3 (2-3), 4th in SEC – East

  • Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
  • Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
  • Marshall, Canceled
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
  • Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
  • Beat Missouri, 37-35
  • Lost Texas A&M, 26-23
  • Bye
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Ole Miss, TBD
  • Florida, TBD
  • Chattanooga, TBD
  • Clemson, TBD

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 3-4 (2-2), 4th in C-USA – East

  • Beat Fordham, 34-10
  • Lost to App St, 45-9
  • Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
  • Lost to UMass, 49-31
  • Lost to UAB, 28-7
  • Beat Western Kentucky, 40-14
  • Lost to MTSU, 21-13
  • Southern Miss, 2:00 PM ET
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Marshall, 2:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • FIU, 2:00 PM ET
  • FAU, 6:00 PM ET

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 6-1 (4-1), 1st in SEC – East, #12

  • Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
  • Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
  • Beat Murray State, 48-10
  • Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
  • Beat S Carolina, 24-10
  • Lost to Texas A&M, 20-14
  • Bye
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 14-7
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Georgia, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • MTSU, TBD
  • Louisville, TBD

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 4-3 (0-3), 6th in SEC – East

  • Beat UT Martin, 51-14
  • Beat Wyoming, 40-13
  • Beat Purdue, 40-37
  • Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
  • Lost to South Carolina, 37-35
  • Lost to Alabama, 39-10
  • Beat Memphis, 65-33
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • Florida, TBD
  • Vanderbilt, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Arkansas, 2:30 PM ET CBS

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 3-5 (0-4), 7th in SEC – East

  • Beat MTSU, 35-7
  • Beat Nevada, 41-10
  • Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
  • Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
  • Beat Tennessee St, 31-27
  • Lost to Georgia, 41-13
  • Lost to Florida, 37-27
  • Lost to Kentucky, 14-7
  • Arkansas, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Ole Miss, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD

Sunday Best: Everything Starts Now, But For Which Quarterback?

 

Up until the minute Jarrett Guarantano left Saturday’s game with what originally was called a collarbone issue but wound up being bruised ribs, I would have told you the guy under center was the one who gave the Vols the best chance to win.

After watching Keller Chryst against Alabama and rewatching him again in a replay of the game, I’m not so sure.

And you know what, Vols fans? That is an excellent thing moving forward.

There’s no question you’re in one camp or the other when it comes to who should be Tennessee’s quarterback when the Vols travel to Columbia, South Carolina, next weekend for Saturday night’s all-important game against the Gamecocks that could determine how the rest of the season goes.

You know who’s camp I’m in? Neither. I’ve decided to spend the rest of the fall at Camp Whoever-helps-us-win.

I don’t see practice everyday, and I don’t know if Guarantano or Chryst gives Tennessee the best chance to do that. I don’t know if Alabama backed off a bit in coverage by the time the Stanford transfer replaced Guarantano, and I don’t know how Chryst would play a complete game against mere mortals.

But Chryst certainly had his exceptional moments against those crimson cyborgs on Saturday. That’s encouraging, and nothing else. It’s not worrisome. It’s not a reason to get on a soap box. It’s not a reason to start flinging darts in JG’s direction. It’s ONLY encouraging. You know why? Because now both guys have proven they can do good things against good teams, and it’s very possible Tennessee will need both of them before this season is over, especially considering just how bad this offensive line remains.

If you’re looking for positives in yet another Bama beat-down, this time a 58-21 loss that marked the record 12th-straight Crimson Tide victory in the Third Saturday in October, there aren’t that many. The best thing by far is that it’s over, and, barring the news on receiver Josh Palmer who went out with an injury, Tennessee may have survived. Guarantano is hurt, but is he injured? Coach Jeremy Pruitt didn’t sound terribly concerned Saturday night.

Chryst came in, however, and more than did his job. He finished 9-of-15 for 164 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It wasn’t just that he posted decent numbers, either. It’s that he looked really good doing it. He utilized Jauan Jennings, who had his second strong game in a row, catching six balls for 102 yards; he threw an absolute dime over the middle to Tyler Byrd [HE EXISTS!] for a touchdown; and he kept Ty Chandler in the passing game, throwing him a scoring strike, too.

There was plenty of zip on his throws, and it’s simply something we haven’t seen from him. According to practice reports, the coaches hadn’t seen it much, either.

All of those things are positive, but the most important thing — especially with this offensive line — is Chryst recognized blitzes, moved away from pressure and made some plays. His pocket presence is a lot better than JG’s, even if the latter can advance the ball downfield with authority and make every throw.

Now, I’m not saying that you absolutely need to start Chryst next week. As a matter of fact, I think if Guarantano is ready to go and I was the coach, he would probably remain the starter until he proves he isn’t the guy. Tennessee doesn’t really need a quarterback controversy right now, especially before such a pivotal stretch of the season — the most pivotal stretch of the season.

But Chryst’s emergence and Saturday’s performance gives Tennessee options, right? That’s not a bad thing.

Is it really a controversy to have a competition? If you believe Pruitt, every player every week is evaluated, and his game reps mirror how well he performed in practice. He reportedly hasn’t done that with the quarterbacks because the offense needs to develop continuity with “The Man” who is going to lead the team. That’s been Guarantano, and other than taking some absolute shots because he doesn’t yet have the pocket vision, he’s done nothing to be benched.

As a matter of fact, he’s coming off his career game in the huge win at Auburn. Do you punish him for getting hurt against Alabama?

No. But you also have to realize that taking those kind of hits may make you a warrior, but they hurt your team. They cause turnovers, extra possessions for the opponent, and drive-killing sacks. Those are mistakes the Vols can’t afford with such a slim margin for error.

So, why not split first-team reps this week, just to see? Guarantano may not be able to go against South Carolina, anyway. We don’t know yet.

Some of you on Twitter have argued that you believe the coaches are not only doing what they think is best for now but adding weight to what’s best for the future, and that’s why Guarantano is getting the nod. I don’t agree with that at all. These coaches know how important selling marked improvement is to recruits, and if there’s anything we learned about Pruitt after Saturday’s comments, it’s that he still values recruiting above all else and knows he needs to recruit 25 players who do things his way because there are still people on this UT team who don’t. You don’t strive for the future to hurt the present. I believe they really believe JG is the man for the job.

Do they still? We’ll see.

It’s hard to fault what JG has done in games, even though offensive coordinator Tyson Helton has only let him loose a couple of times.

We all loved him last week, remember? This week, we all love Chryst.

It’s just vitally important to remember that both are Vols, and now we know that both are capable. If JG wants to keep his job, he may need to elevate his game, right? How can that be a bad thing? If you pull him against South Carolina, you should now have confidence in Chryst where, before, any of that would have been blind hope.

Tennessee lost a game on Saturday, but it found out that the offensive hopes don’t necessarily hinge of the health of Guarantano. That is a huge positive, because you know what?

The rest of this season — Every. Single. Game. — is winnable.

You heard that right. Though I would say the odds certainly are against the Vols to run the table (can you even fathom an eight-win season, especially with how we started??) there are no reasons why the Vols should be huge underdogs in any remaining game.

Will Missouri’s high-flying passing attack be a problem for Tennessee’s youthful secondary? Absolutely. Will Kentucky’s dynamic defense and Josh Allen wreak havoc on the Vols awful offensive line? Sure, it will. Is South Carolina a more talented team? Yeah, probably. Can Vanderbilt beat UT? Well, yeah, it has two years in a row, hasn’t it?

But are you scared of any of those teams? You shouldn’t be. Especially not now.

Don’t let Saturday’s slaughter do anything to make you feel worse about this season. What happened was what was always going to happen, and it’s happened to every team Alabama has played this year. The Tide are an NFL team single-handedly sucking the life out of college football. It is what it is.

Anything is possible for the Vols from here on — from 8-4 to 4-8 — and they’ve got two capable quarterbacks who can do good things with the football and lead this team on drives.

At this point, we have to trust the coaches to make the right decisions, and if they’re struggling within the framework of a game, the other needs to be ready to play. If they seize that opportunity, all the better, right?

Chryst seized his chance against the Tide and looked excellent doing it. Guarantano did the same a week before against Auburn.

Small sample sets, both. Neither have proved they’re elite, dynamic signal-callers capable of carrying this team on their shoulders. Both are proving they’re perfectly competent, and it’s going to be fun watching this growing, developing team play against some competition that is on the same plane as them right now.

Florida is, and the Vols turned it over six times in a lopsided loss. Auburn is, and Tennessee finally took advantage, made its own breaks and won a big game. Every other team is in that sack of potatoes, too.

It’s time for Tennessee to take care of business in the “real” season, which starts next week. It will be interesting to see how Pruitt, Helton and crew handle the developing quarterback situation. However they do, the dude out there will have the Power T on their helmet.

We should all be encouraged by what we’ve seen recently, because we will need the quarterback to make plays for us to win games, especially next week against a South Carolina team that is angry, will be playing at home and had an extra week to rest and prepare.

You say the goal should be 6-6? I don’t agree. Every game is winnable, so the goal should be 8-4. Pruitt and Co. need to do whatever it takes to get there, including opening up the quarterback competition and seeing what shakes out.

Keep Punching

Progress looks smallest against Alabama and doesn’t feel like much progress at all. But the right feel was indeed present yesterday, even if briefly: down 28-0 with more than 11 minutes left in the second quarter, Tennessee forced consecutive three-and-outs on Alabama’s first-team offense. Then Tennessee’s own offense, which at that point had earned all of one first down (plus a second via penalty), came alive: Guarantano-to-Palmer for 30, then consecutive completions from Keller Chryst to Ty Chandler for a touchdown. And when Alabama answered after another near-miss on an onside kick, so too did the Vols: Jauan Jennings on 3rd-and-12, Jennings on a flea flicker (I was impressed but not surprised by the number of people in the stands who were absolutely confident Jennings would come out of the pile with that fumble), then Tyler Byrd (!) for a 20-yard touchdown.

The Vols were down 35-14 with 2:18 to play in the second quarter, and would receive the second half kickoff. I don’t think any of us thought we were winning. But Tennessee was alive, not just throwing wildly but landing some punches.

It didn’t last, of course: Tua’s six yard run on 3rd-and-5 three plays later was one of the game’s more important snaps, Bama punched it in with 15 seconds left before halftime, and more shenanigans on the second half kickoff ended most of the interest. But for Tennessee, against Alabama, this was progress.

It’s much more noticeable on paper. The Vols gained 258 yards in 55 plays against the Tide, 4.69 yards per play. Almost all of the damage was done against Bama’s first team: in the second half Tennessee ran only 24 plays for 84 yards (3.5 per play). It’s not just that Tennessee’s offense had a better day than Louisville, Ole Miss, and Missouri against Alabama’s defense. It’s how much better this Tennessee team was against the Crimson Tide than last year’s…and the year before that.

Hopelessness in this rivalry was last season, when the Vols gained 108 yards on 46 plays (2.35 per). The year before, still ranked ninth and with plenty of NFL talent, Tennessee gained 163 yards in 63 plays (2.59 per). Even trailing only 21-7 at halftime in 2016, there was a sense of impending doom quickly realized in the second half. To be fair, that team was decimated by injuries coming off Texas A&M, but Alabama made inept an offense that would go on to be the best in college football in the month of November.

We’ve been saying it all year, and it was true again yesterday: this year, competence is progress. Doing much of anything right against this Alabama team is competence, and the Vols showed it with a little flair in the second quarter. It was never going to be enough to win. But I like both the fight of this team, and the way that fight manifests itself versus last year.

Of course, the Vols already have their signature win, seem to have avoided any catastrophic injuries coming out of Bama, and still need just a split of their secondary SEC East rivals (plus a win over Charlotte) to get bowl eligible. So far Jeremy Pruitt has pushed the right buttons with this team.

Were his postgame quotes the right button? Pruitt is no doubt tired of losing, and tired of being non-competitive in the final analysis. So far he has not lost his team, and they have not lost their fight. It’s different, perhaps, when you’re coming off the worst season in school history and not a mediocre finish that ended the tenure of a longtime coach. These players, so far, have been invested as Pruitt has done the same in them.

This next part – South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt – was always going to be the most important for Tennessee to achieve its goals this year. And the Vols picked up a signature win along the way at Auburn. Tennessee seems to be entering the backstretch physically okay.

This has been the question all year: can the Vols be better in November than they were in September? To do that, Pruitt will have to keep his team together while continuing to challenge them to improve. I don’t doubt Tennessee’s spirit at this point. But can the Vols continue to throw and land meaningful punches and score meaningful wins against the rest of the schedule? Or will this team be beaten down, throwing punches with less behind them before collapsing to the canvas themselves?

These things are always a marathon, and in many ways the toughest miles should be behind us now. Does Tennessee have enough left to take advantage of what’s in front of them? If the answer is yes, progress will start looking better every week.