The Vols emerge from The Gauntlet mostly intact and now travel to South Carolina to take on a Gamecocks team coming off a bye week. Has the difficult stretch of the last three or four games made Tennessee stronger or has it taken a toll?

Those intangibles will likely be significant factors in this weekend’s matchup, but first, let’s take a look at the stats and comps to see what the Statsy Preview Machine says.

Predictions

SPM: South Carolina 36, Tennessee 19

Eye- and gut-adjusted: South Carolina 28, Tennessee 24

Tennessee rushing yards: 130

South Carolina rushing yards: 130

Tennessee passing yards: 175

South Carolina passing yards: 260

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 140.7 rushing yards per game, while South Carolina is giving up 179.2 per game. To date, Florida is slightly better at defending the run than South Carolina, allowing 163.1, and Tennessee got 156 against the Gators. On the other hand, Vanderbilt is averaging 141.1 rushing yards per game but got only 92 against the Gamecocks, and the Vols’ rushing offense appears to be getting worse, not better.

Based on that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against South Carolina is 130.

South Carolina rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 162.0 rushing yards per game, while the South Carolina run game is averaging 153.7 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is getting 146.7 yards per game on the ground, and they got 95 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 172.3 rushing yards per game and got 126 against Tennessee. So, with the Vols generally holding the most similar opponents to below their season averages, I’m going with South Carolina getting about 110 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 209.9 passing yards per game, and South Carolina is allowing 199.2. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is giving up 218.5 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 172 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama. They’re allowing 194.5 passing yards per game, and Tennessee somewhat surprisingly got 227 against them.

On the other hand, the Gamecocks’ pass defense generally keeps its most similar opponents to well below their passing yard averages.

Based on all of that, my guess is that Tennessee will put up 175 passing yards this weekend.

South Carolina passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 223.1 passing yards per game. South Carolina is getting 250.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is getting 235.6 yards per game through the air, and they got 190 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is averaging 320.5 passing yards per game and got 429 against Tennessee. The Gamecocks generally get more passing yards than their opponents’ averages, so I’m going with South Carolina getting somewhere around 260 passing yards this week.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 25.9 points per game, and South Carolina is allowing 25.8. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is allowing 31.6 points per game, and Tennessee got 24 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia. They’re allowing 20.5 points per game, and Tennessee got 14 against them. Those games were early in the season, and the Vols scored 21 against Alabama and Florida and 24 against Auburn. So, my prediction is that Tennessee will score right around their average against the Gamecocks. Let’s call it 24 points.

South Carolina scoring

Tennessee is allowing 30.0 points per game. South Carolina is averaging 28.8. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 28.4 points, and they got 24 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 34.4 points and got 47 against Tennessee. The Gamecocks offense has the potential to run away with it, but if it’s a struggle, I like the chances of the Vols defense to hold them below their average.

Looking at things from the Gamecocks’ perspective, though, they got 37 against both Missouri (giving up an average of 30.9 points) and Vanderbilt (average of 24.4).

So . . . I’m going with South Carolina putting up about 28-31 points against Tennessee. Calling it 28.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

Left alone, the SPM says South Carolina 36, Tennessee 19, a spread of -17.

With eyeball and gut adjustments, I’m going with South Carolina 28, Tennessee 24, a spread of -4.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has a 34.2% chance of winning and puts the score at South Carolina 33.7, Tennessee 26.6, a spread of -7.1.

The Vegas spread favors South Carolina by between -7.5 and -8.5, with an over/under of between 53.5-54, which converts to something like 31-23, Gamecocks.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 19.8% chance of winning.

Thursday and Friday

 

 

The Vols don’t play until Saturday night this week, but the slate is full of a variety of tasty appetizers, and they start arriving before you even sit down. Thursday you can get a look at former Vols opponent West Virginia (and also former Vol and current Baylor Bear Jalen Hurd), and on Friday, you can see what new UCLA head coach Chip Kelly is up to as his team takes on No. 23 Utah.

Gameday

 

On Gameday, a couple of Top 25 teams are in action at noon, including No. 2 Clemson taking on new FSU head coach Willie Taggart.

The afternoon is all about the World’s Largest Stupid Game Between Two Stupid Tennessee Rivals, but you can also get an early look at two future Vols opponents as No. 12 Kentucky travels to Missouri.

And then the Vols kickoff at South Carolina at 7:30 on the SEC Network. Go Vols. Beat the Gamecocks.

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

You’d expect the Vols’ national stat rankings to take a hit after playing Georgia, Auburn, and a historically good Alabama team all in a row, and you do see some of that. But Tennessee seems to have survived that stretch without too much dropoff, and when you compare things to this time last year, you might just be encouraged.

Offense

The Tennessee offense is doing some things really well and some things not well at all, but most the offense is stuck in that middle not-great-not-terrible territory. Overall, though, it is better than this time last year, when it was all just plain terrible.

Defense

I think maybe the most important takeaway here is that Rushing Defense has improved fairly significantly. Great defenses tend to start there and build off it.

Special Teams

Turnovers and Penalties

 

Tennessee got thumped good by Alabama this weekend, but how did the other teams look, and how does it all affect our expectations for the back half of the season?

My new expected win total:

• This week: 6.0
• Last week: 6.3
• After Week 6: 5.0
• After Week 5: 4.9
• After Week 4: 4.55
• After Week 3: 5.5

I have Kentucky steady at 45%, Missouri and South Carolina steady at 50%, Vanderbilt up to 60% (from 75% last week), and Charlotte steady at 95%. Not much change, really. I think we’re basically looking at four essential tossups, with the order being Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt, with there being a bit of space between the Commodores and the other three.

Use the form below to calculate yours and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 3-4 (1-3), 5th in the SEC East

• Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
• Beat ETSU, 59-3
• Beat UTEP, 24-0
• Lost to Florida, 47-21
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
• Beat #21 Auburn, 30-24
• Lost to #1 Alabama, 58-21
• S Carolina, TBD
• Charlotte, TBD
• Kentucky, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 5-1 (3-1), 2nd in Big 12, #13

• Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
• Beat YSU, 52-17
• NC State, Canceled
• Beat Kansas St, 35-6
• Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
• Beat Kansas, 38-22
• Lost to Iowa State, 30-14
• Bye
• Baylor, 7:00 PM ET FOX Sports 1
• Texas, TBD
• #17 TCU, TBD
• #15 Oklahoma St, TBD
• #5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 6-2 (4-1), 1st in Southern

• Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
• Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
• Beat VMI, 27-24
• Beat Furman, 29-27
• Beat Chattanooga, 17-14
• Beat Gardner-Webb, 45-0
• Beat The Citadel, 26-23
• Lost to Wofford, 31-17
• W Carolina, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• Mercer, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
• Samford, 1:00 PM ET

UTEP Miners

Current record: 0-7 (0-3), 6th in C-USA – West

• Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
• Lost to UNLV, 52-24
• Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
• Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
• Lost to UTSA, 30-21
• Lost North Texas, 27-24
• Bye
• Lost to LA Tech, 31-24
• UAB, 7:30 PM ET ESPN+
• Rice, 3:30 PM ET
• MTSU, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
• W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
• Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+

Florida Gators

Current record: 6-1 (4-1), 1st in SEC – East, #9

• Beat Charleston So, 53-6
• Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
• Beat Colorado St, 48-10
• Beat Tennessee, 47-21
• Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
• Beat #5 LSU, 27-19
• Beat Vanderbilt, 37-27
• Bye
• #2 Georgia*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
• Missouri, TBD
• S Carolina, TBD
• Idaho, TBD
• Florida State, TBD

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 6-1 (4-1), 1st in SEC – East, #7

• Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
• Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
• Beat MTSU, 49-7
• Beat Missouri, 43-29
• Beat Tennessee, 38-12
• Beat Vanderbilt, 41-13
• Lost to #13 LSU, 36-16
• Bye
• Florida*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
• Kentucky, TBD
• #9 Auburn, TBD
• UMass, TBD
• Georgia Tech, TBD

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 5-3 (2-3), 4th in SEC – West

• Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
• Beat Alabama St, 63-9
• Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
• Beat Arkansas, 34-3
• Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
• Lost to Miss St, 23-9
• Lost to Tennessee, 30-24
• Beat Ole Miss, 31-16
• Texas A&M, TBD
• Georgia, TBD
• Liberty, TBD
• Alabama, TBD

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 8-0 (5-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1

• Beat Louisville*, 51-14
• Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
• Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
• Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
• Beat Louisiana, 56-14
• Beat Arkansas, 65-31
• Beat Missouri, 39-10
• Beat Tennessee, 58-21
• LSU, TBD
• Miss St, TBD
• The Citadel, TBD
• Auburn, TBD

The Vols’ future opponents

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 3-3 (2-3), 4th in SEC – East

• Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
• Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
• Marshall, Canceled
• Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
• Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
• Beat Missouri, 37-35
• Lost Texas A&M, 26-23
• Bye
• Tennessee, TBD
• Ole Miss, TBD
• Florida, TBD
• Chattanooga, TBD
• Clemson, TBD

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 3-4 (2-2), 4th in C-USA – East

• Beat Fordham, 34-10
• Lost to App St, 45-9
• Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
• Lost to UMass, 49-31
• Lost to UAB, 28-7
• Beat Western Kentucky, 40-14
• Lost to MTSU, 21-13
• Southern Miss, 2:00 PM ET
• Tennessee, TBD
• Marshall, 2:30 PM ET ESPN+
• FIU, 2:00 PM ET
• FAU, 6:00 PM ET

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 6-1 (4-1), 1st in SEC – East, #12

• Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
• Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
• Beat Murray State, 48-10
• Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
• Beat S Carolina, 24-10
• Lost to Texas A&M, 20-14
• Bye
• Beat Vanderbilt, 14-7
• Missouri, TBD
• Georgia, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• MTSU, TBD
• Louisville, TBD

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 4-3 (0-3), 6th in SEC – East

• Beat UT Martin, 51-14
• Beat Wyoming, 40-13
• Beat Purdue, 40-37
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
• Lost to South Carolina, 37-35
• Lost to Alabama, 39-10
• Beat Memphis, 65-33
• Kentucky, TBD
• Florida, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• Arkansas, 2:30 PM ET CBS

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 3-5 (0-4), 7th in SEC – East

• Beat MTSU, 35-7
• Beat Nevada, 41-10
• Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
• Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
• Beat Tennessee St, 31-27
• Lost to Georgia, 41-13
• Lost to Florida, 37-27
• Lost to Kentucky, 14-7
• Arkansas, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Ole Miss, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD

Progress looks smallest against Alabama and doesn’t feel like much progress at all. But the right feel was indeed present yesterday, even if briefly: down 28-0 with more than 11 minutes left in the second quarter, Tennessee forced consecutive three-and-outs on Alabama’s first-team offense. Then Tennessee’s own offense, which at that point had earned all of one first down (plus a second via penalty), came alive: Guarantano-to-Palmer for 30, then consecutive completions from Keller Chryst to Ty Chandler for a touchdown. And when Alabama answered after another near-miss on an onside kick, so too did the Vols: Jauan Jennings on 3rd-and-12, Jennings on a flea flicker (I was impressed but not surprised by the number of people in the stands who were absolutely confident Jennings would come out of the pile with that fumble), then Tyler Byrd (!) for a 20-yard touchdown.

The Vols were down 35-14 with 2:18 to play in the second quarter, and would receive the second half kickoff. I don’t think any of us thought we were winning. But Tennessee was alive, not just throwing wildly but landing some punches.

It didn’t last, of course: Tua’s six yard run on 3rd-and-5 three plays later was one of the game’s more important snaps, Bama punched it in with 15 seconds left before halftime, and more shenanigans on the second half kickoff ended most of the interest. But for Tennessee, against Alabama, this was progress.

It’s much more noticeable on paper. The Vols gained 258 yards in 55 plays against the Tide, 4.69 yards per play. Almost all of the damage was done against Bama’s first team: in the second half Tennessee ran only 24 plays for 84 yards (3.5 per play). It’s not just that Tennessee’s offense had a better day than Louisville, Ole Miss, and Missouri against Alabama’s defense. It’s how much better this Tennessee team was against the Crimson Tide than last year’s…and the year before that.

Hopelessness in this rivalry was last season, when the Vols gained 108 yards on 46 plays (2.35 per). The year before, still ranked ninth and with plenty of NFL talent, Tennessee gained 163 yards in 63 plays (2.59 per). Even trailing only 21-7 at halftime in 2016, there was a sense of impending doom quickly realized in the second half. To be fair, that team was decimated by injuries coming off Texas A&M, but Alabama made inept an offense that would go on to be the best in college football in the month of November.

We’ve been saying it all year, and it was true again yesterday: this year, competence is progress. Doing much of anything right against this Alabama team is competence, and the Vols showed it with a little flair in the second quarter. It was never going to be enough to win. But I like both the fight of this team, and the way that fight manifests itself versus last year.

Of course, the Vols already have their signature win, seem to have avoided any catastrophic injuries coming out of Bama, and still need just a split of their secondary SEC East rivals (plus a win over Charlotte) to get bowl eligible. So far Jeremy Pruitt has pushed the right buttons with this team.

Were his postgame quotes the right button? Pruitt is no doubt tired of losing, and tired of being non-competitive in the final analysis. So far he has not lost his team, and they have not lost their fight. It’s different, perhaps, when you’re coming off the worst season in school history and not a mediocre finish that ended the tenure of a longtime coach. These players, so far, have been invested as Pruitt has done the same in them.

This next part – South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt – was always going to be the most important for Tennessee to achieve its goals this year. And the Vols picked up a signature win along the way at Auburn. Tennessee seems to be entering the backstretch physically okay.

This has been the question all year: can the Vols be better in November than they were in September? To do that, Pruitt will have to keep his team together while continuing to challenge them to improve. I don’t doubt Tennessee’s spirit at this point. But can the Vols continue to throw and land meaningful punches and score meaningful wins against the rest of the schedule? Or will this team be beaten down, throwing punches with less behind them before collapsing to the canvas themselves?

These things are always a marathon, and in many ways the toughest miles should be behind us now. Does Tennessee have enough left to take advantage of what’s in front of them? If the answer is yes, progress will start looking better every week.

 

The Tennessee Volunteers lost to a historically good Alabama Crimson Tide team today 58-21, but at the same time completed their time in The Gauntlet, a three-game stretch against Georgia, Auburn, and Alabama.

They survived. Beaten, but not broken. Pressed, but not crushed. And only time will tell, but they may even be stronger for the experience. (Assuming the injury that sidelined Jarrett Guarantano this afternoon doesn’t keep him out for long. But even then, Keller Chryst looked as good today as well.)

Oh, and instead of stumbling out of the exit with an anticipated 0-3 record, they even managed to emerge with a surprise win in hand.

Forget about getting trounced by Georgia and run over by Alabama on its way to the history books. The only thing that matters about those games now is that they’re over.

Now, the team turns its attention to the games that are really going to matter this season. Winnable games that can earn a bowl trip and the extra practice that goes with it.

Assuming a win against Charlotte gets Tennessee to four wins, Tennessee needs only two of South Carolina, No. 14 Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt to make Jeremy Pruitt’s first season a modest success.

South Carolina is 3-3 with losses to Georgia, Kentucky, and Texas A&M, and a mere 2-point victory over Missouri. They’re beatable.

Kentucky is ranked for good reason, but although they appear to be a worthy opponent, it’s fairly easy to rationalize away some of their wins. They’re especially good this year, but they’re nowhere near as good as either Georgia or Alabama. They can be beat as well.

Missouri is winless in conference play, although those losses came to Georgia, Alabama, and the aforementioned 2-pointer to South Carolina. They know how to score, but they also know how to lose.

And Vanderbilt, while not looking terrible, is certainly no better than Tennessee.

The goal the rest of the way, then, is to win two of those four games. It won’t be easy. Those teams are looking better than usual, and Tennessee’s rebuild is still a work in process and fragile enough to shatter.

Hopefully, this won’t be the case for any season beyond this one, but those games are as important this year as games against Florida, Georgia, and Alabama have been in years past.

Get two or more, go bowling. Get the extra practice. Tout the progress to as many blue-chip recruits as will listen. And then see how much more ground we can gain against the elites next season.

Winning two more SEC games the rest of the way is the path to getting better next year, when we can really start closing the gap against the nation’s best.

Forget Alabama for now. The Gamecocks are up next. They’re not Alabama or Georgia. They’re beatable.

So let’s do it.