Tennessee got thumped good by Alabama this weekend, but how did the other teams look, and how does it all affect our expectations for the back half of the season?
My new expected win total:
- This week: 6.0
- Last week: 6.3
- After Week 6: 5.0
- After Week 5: 4.9
- After Week 4: 4.55
- After Week 3: 5.5
I have Kentucky steady at 45%, Missouri and South Carolina steady at 50%, Vanderbilt up to 60% (from 75% last week), and Charlotte steady at 95%. Not much change, really. I think we’re basically looking at four essential tossups, with the order being Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt, with there being a bit of space between the Commodores and the other three.
Use the form below to calculate yours and post it in the comments below the post.
Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 3-4 (1-3), 5th in the SEC East
- Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
- Beat ETSU, 59-3
- Beat UTEP, 24-0
- Lost to Florida, 47-21
- Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
- Beat #21 Auburn, 30-24
- Lost to #1 Alabama, 58-21
- S Carolina, TBD
- Charlotte, TBD
- Kentucky, TBD
- Missouri, TBD
- Vanderbilt, TBD
The Vols’ past opponents
West Virginia Mountaineers
Current record: 5-1 (3-1), 2nd in Big 12, #13
- Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
- Beat YSU, 52-17
- NC State, Canceled
- Beat Kansas St, 35-6
- Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
- Beat Kansas, 38-22
- Lost to Iowa State, 30-14
- Bye
- Baylor, 7:00 PM ET FOX Sports 1
- Texas, TBD
- #17 TCU, TBD
- #15 Oklahoma St, TBD
- #5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Current record: 6-2 (4-1), 1st in Southern
- Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
- Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
- Beat VMI, 27-24
- Beat Furman, 29-27
- Beat Chattanooga, 17-14
- Beat Gardner-Webb, 45-0
- Beat The Citadel, 26-23
- Lost to Wofford, 31-17
- W Carolina, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
- Mercer, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
- Samford, 1:00 PM ET
UTEP Miners
Current record: 0-7 (0-3), 6th in C-USA – West
- Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
- Lost to UNLV, 52-24
- Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
- Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
- Lost to UTSA, 30-21
- Lost North Texas, 27-24
- Bye
- Lost to LA Tech, 31-24
- UAB, 7:30 PM ET ESPN+
- Rice, 3:30 PM ET
- MTSU, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
- W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
- Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
Florida Gators
Current record: 6-1 (4-1), 1st in SEC – East, #9
- Beat Charleston So, 53-6
- Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
- Beat Colorado St, 48-10
- Beat Tennessee, 47-21
- Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
- Beat #5 LSU, 27-19
- Beat Vanderbilt, 37-27
- Bye
- #2 Georgia*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
- Missouri, TBD
- S Carolina, TBD
- Idaho, TBD
- Florida State, TBD
Georgia Bulldogs
Current record: 6-1 (4-1), 1st in SEC – East, #7
- Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
- Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
- Beat MTSU, 49-7
- Beat Missouri, 43-29
- Beat Tennessee, 38-12
- Beat Vanderbilt, 41-13
- Lost to #13 LSU, 36-16
- Bye
- Florida*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
- Kentucky, TBD
- #9 Auburn, TBD
- UMass, TBD
- Georgia Tech, TBD
Auburn Tigers
Current record: 5-3 (2-3), 4th in SEC – West
- Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
- Beat Alabama St, 63-9
- Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
- Beat Arkansas, 34-3
- Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
- Lost to Miss St, 23-9
- Lost to Tennessee, 30-24
- Beat Ole Miss, 31-16
- Texas A&M, TBD
- Georgia, TBD
- Liberty, TBD
- Alabama, TBD
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 8-0 (5-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1
- Beat Louisville*, 51-14
- Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
- Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
- Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
- Beat Louisiana, 56-14
- Beat Arkansas, 65-31
- Beat Missouri, 39-10
- Beat Tennessee, 58-21
- LSU, TBD
- Miss St, TBD
- The Citadel, TBD
- Auburn, TBD
The Vols’ future opponents
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 3-3 (2-3), 4th in SEC – East
- Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
- Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
- Marshall, Canceled
- Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
- Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
- Beat Missouri, 37-35
- Lost Texas A&M, 26-23
- Bye
- Tennessee, TBD
- Ole Miss, TBD
- Florida, TBD
- Chattanooga, TBD
- Clemson, TBD
Charlotte 49ers
Current record: 3-4 (2-2), 4th in C-USA – East
- Beat Fordham, 34-10
- Lost to App St, 45-9
- Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
- Lost to UMass, 49-31
- Lost to UAB, 28-7
- Beat Western Kentucky, 40-14
- Lost to MTSU, 21-13
- Southern Miss, 2:00 PM ET
- Tennessee, TBD
- Marshall, 2:30 PM ET ESPN+
- FIU, 2:00 PM ET
- FAU, 6:00 PM ET
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 6-1 (4-1), 1st in SEC – East, #12
- Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
- Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
- Beat Murray State, 48-10
- Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
- Beat S Carolina, 24-10
- Lost to Texas A&M, 20-14
- Bye
- Beat Vanderbilt, 14-7
- Missouri, TBD
- Georgia, TBD
- Tennessee, TBD
- MTSU, TBD
- Louisville, TBD
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 4-3 (0-3), 6th in SEC – East
- Beat UT Martin, 51-14
- Beat Wyoming, 40-13
- Beat Purdue, 40-37
- Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
- Lost to South Carolina, 37-35
- Lost to Alabama, 39-10
- Beat Memphis, 65-33
- Kentucky, TBD
- Florida, TBD
- Vanderbilt, TBD
- Tennessee, TBD
- Arkansas, 2:30 PM ET CBS
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 3-5 (0-4), 7th in SEC – East
- Beat MTSU, 35-7
- Beat Nevada, 41-10
- Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
- Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
- Beat Tennessee St, 31-27
- Lost to Georgia, 41-13
- Lost to Florida, 37-27
- Lost to Kentucky, 14-7
- Arkansas, TBD
- Missouri, TBD
- Ole Miss, TBD
- Tennessee, TBD
5.55. Split the remaining 4 SEC games for a bowl. Sakerlina away, at night, after being physically beaten (and beaten every other possible way) by Bama is a tough one to see headed our way. Missouri has a prolific passer which makes that more challenging as well. Our bowl bid likely comes down to a sweep of Vandy and Kentucky. After watching that fiasco of a game, I feel good about rounding up from my 5.55 wins.
Pre-season: 5.12 Post-WVU: 4.98 Post-ETSU: 4.84 Post-UTEP: 4.65 Post-Florida: 4.01 Post-Georgia: 4.20 Post-bye: 4.63 Post-Auburn: 5.58 Now: 5.48 Not much changed, nor did I expect it to. Dooley and Mizzou returning to their high-flying ways concerns me a bit more than they did before. Right near the midpoint of 5 and 6 wins feels about right. My individual game confidence levels are South Carolina 34, Charlotte 98, Kentucky 30, Mizzou 35, and Vandy 51. I thought it might also be interesting to look at how I had picked each UT game in the Pick ‘Em contest versus actual results: West… Read more »
I’m pretty close to your picks.
It’s very similar to where I was last week. The Vols will be favored over Charlotte and Vandy might be a tossup at this point according to Vegas.
Can they win at least one of South Carolina (bad spot on schedule), Mizzou (bad matchup), or Kentucky (see their game against Vandy for how content they are to just bludgeon you and win ugly) to make a bowl. I expect UT to be a 7-10 point dog in all of those games.
I’m at 5.90, exactly the same as last week minus the 5% chance I gave us to beat Bama
6.2 this week… about where I was last week. A lot depends on the mental state of the Vols… if we lose big to SC… we could be in for a slide that I don’t think even Pruitt can prevent. I feel certain he is going to come crashing down on the guys that are not competing and how they react will tell a lot about the character of this team he inherited. This is where you “… put on more steam”. Go Vols!!
6.28 Bentley has been much better than last two weeks, but I don’t think he’s faced CBs with the quality of Taylor and Buchanan since at least UGa. Their run game, both ways, has been thoroughly mediocre. I think this game will come down to Guarantano being on or off. That, and turnovers/special teams. Charlotte is better, but they are still not a team we should be afraid of. A loss would require a monumental collapse. We get UK the week after they run into Georgia, and frankly I don’t expect Snell to be 100% at that point. If he… Read more »
Facing Kentucky after they get waxed by Georgia is a great, great point. Kats will be bruised facing us – just as we are bruised facing Sakerlina. Tough game this week, but winnable. Still think we sweep UK/Vandy for the bowl.