Gameday on Rocky Top

This is going to be short and sweet.

The first reason for that is there simply wasn’t much about which to be excited in a lackluster 14-3 win over Conference USA also-ran Charlotte that looked like neither the players nor the coaches wanted to be in Neyland Stadium. Secondly, you probably don’t want to read too much about the game against the 49ers. Heck, you may have even decided to skip the game and enjoy a beautiful fall Saturday with your family instead.

It would have been a good one to sit out, that’s for sure.

But, as most coaches say, you never apologize for a win. Tennessee got its fourth on Saturday, even though it was hard to feel any warm-and-fuzzies at all from it. They still have to somehow get two of the final three to get bowl-eligible the traditional way.

That seems hard when you consider Kentucky is rugged, good on both lines and has a star pass-rusher in Josh Allen and stud running back in Benny Snell who will give the Vols fits. Missouri is an absolutely horrid matchup nightmare for Tennessee with Drew Lock and a dynamic passing game that torched Florida on Saturday. And while Vanderbilt looks like the most winnable, the Commodores have won two straight against UT and will be at home in Nashville.

Yes, Saturday sucked. But it may just be the last time this Tennessee team gets to experience a win this year. There are certainly no guarantees from here on.

So, today’s column looks at some positives [regardless of how difficult they are to find]. We’ll give a nod to the past as well as the future.

First of all, let’s look back. To appreciate where you hope you’re going, you have to embrace [or at least understand] where you’ve been. Kyle Phillips, Shy Tuttle and Todd Kelly Jr. have played a lot of football for Tennessee over the past four years, and while they certainly aren’t elite SEC players, they’ve had some good moments in orange and white, even though a lot of folks see them as part of awful defensive issues of the past few years.

They had a nice game against Charlotte, which was good to see. Those are all seniors, and this will be their last run in Knoxville, so to see a guy like Phillips — a phenomenal kid from an extraordinary family — have a game where he got four tackles, a sack and two tackles for a loss is nice to see. Defensive tackle Tuttle added four more tackles, and Kelly Jr. had seven.

For TKJr., it was extra special. He had a scary situation this offseason that called into question his health and some other things, and it was obvious in the early stages of the season when he couldn’t break into the lineup that he was never going to be the same player he was when he arrived on campus as a highly coveted recruit who was offered by everybody from Alabama to Georgia to USC to Ohio State. The only real reason he’s on the field is because of injuries to Trevon Flowers and Micah Abernathy.

But he responded on Saturday with his best outing of the year. The Vols need the more athletic Flowers and the steady Abernathy back soon, and they need the light to come on quickly for Shawn Shamburger, but TKJr. was needed on Saturday, and he responded.

That’s good for everybody to see.

From a future standpoint, you almost had to wonder what was going through Alontae Taylor’s head as he drew his second targeting penalty of the season. With him out, UT’s already depleted secondary got slimmer, and Marquill Osborne had a frustrating injury in relief of the true freshman. But the other freshman CB — Bryce Thompson — had a big game.

He continued to flash, getting to Miami transfer quarterback Evan Shirreffs for a sack and then picking off Shirreffs at the end of the game to seal the win.

It’s sad that the Vols needed big defensive plays in this one, but they absolutely did. With so many offensive line issues — problems that don’t look fixable this season — the loss of Ty Chandler, who was banged up and had very limited snaps, and the ineffectiveness of quarterback Jarrett Guarantano and play-caller Tyson Helton, the Vols needed a big-time performance from their defense.

That side of the ball rose to the occasion all afternoon long.

Without a win over Charlotte, there was zero chance of a bowl game. But UT won — no matter how hideously — to set up at least an outside shot to get bowl-eligible. You can poo-poo making it at 6-6 or even 5-7 all you want to, but the young kids need all the practice they can get, and the Jeremy Pruitt era needs to end the first season with some positivity.

It would be good for recruiting, it would be good for player development, and it also would be good for some of these seniors who endured last year’s 4-8 debacle and the topsy-turvy Butch Jones era and end up winners.

There is a long, long way to go before we can call them that. No matter what happens the rest of the way, this group of outgoing players aren’t going to be remembered the way we thought they would when they were recruited and part of quality, highly-ranked recruiting classes.

Blame whoever you want to for that, but the evidence remains that UT is the least-talented team in the SEC. It is what it is, and if the Vols can make a bowl game this year, it’ll be because of that Auburn win and because they stole a couple down the stretch.

If you don’t beat the 49ers, none of that is possible.

It still is, even if it was very, very ugly.

At this point, I feel like Tennessee is going to struggle to make a bowl game. But that’s not to say the Vols can’t.

When you have a game like they had against South Carolina where you’ve got myriad opportunities to win and you can’t come through with the W, it gives you an ominous feeling about the rest of the year.

The Vols should come away with the home win this weekend against Charlotte, even if Tim Jordan and Ty Chandler are banged-up and UT is going to nurse some injuries. If that happens, you look at needing to win two of three remaining games against Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt.

Everybody knows UK’s story, and there’s no way you can predict a win against the ‘Cats, even if they’ve not blown everybody’s socks off. They’re still a one-loss team and a top-10 team in the country. They win with defense and running back Benny Snell, and they’re a bad matchup for the Vols because they’re so good along both lines of scrimmage. Tennessee can win that game at home, but the Vols also shouldn’t cry if UK gets banged up against Georgia this weekend.

That leaves Mizzou and Vanderbilt. In the game against the Tigers, UT will be at home, and that may be the worst remaining matchup, thanks to quarterback Drew Lock. He hasn’t had a big season, but he’s got a big arm, and Tennessee has been susceptible to pass-happy teams. Tennessee desperately needs injured safety Trevon Flowers back by then. The Vols match up well against the Commodores, but Kyle Shurmur torched them the past two years. With Ke’Shawn Vaughn looking like a budding star, that’s going to be a challenge for UT. Getting Flowers back will be huge.

KEYS

Play the young guys

Everybody was excited to see Jeremy Banks get a lot of run with the linebackers on Saturday after his move there prior to the South Carolina game, but then Chandler and Jordan get hurt, and coach Jeremy Pruitt has him back at running back this week.

Banks is going to help this team as a starter down the road somewhere, and we need to see him get extended looks this weekend. Maybe on both sides of the ball (though I doubt that will happen).

JJ Peterson has seen only special teams action so far, but it’s time to get him on the defense and see if he can help this team on that side of the ball for the stretch run or if he’s a redshirt candidate. He was UT’s best commitment of the first Pruitt class, but the time has come to make the decision if he helps now or down the road.

John Mincey needs an extended look on the defensive line, especially considering Tennessee needs some answers there next season with so many departing seniors. I want to see receiver Cedric Tillman get a few targets. Guys like Kurott Garland and Greg Emerson technically could even get a few snaps and redshirt. So could quarterback JT Shrout, whom everybody wants to see.

Can those players get extended run and UT win? We’ll see.

Don’t let ’em hang around

You may laugh about a team like the Charlotte 49ers hanging around at Neyland Stadium.

Don’t.

This is a bad football team, but it’s one that played better recently, losing by one score to MTSU and beating Southern Miss. The last time we laughed about a team like this coming to UT and hanging around, the Vols were lucky to beat UMass last year.

This Tennessee team that plays on Saturday won’t be the one it trotted out against Alabama or South Carolina. It will be missing some key players it tries to rest before the important final three games. The guys who go out there need to take care of business from the jump.

Take shots

There is nothing wrong with the Vols’ game plan against South Carolina. It worked offensively, after all.

They dinked and dunked down the field, using the horizontal passing game with swings to running backs and receivers to help open up a decent running game. That’s all fine and good against similar teams.

But UT needs to open it up against Charlotte. The dynamic downfield passing attack beat Auburn, and the Vols may need it in other games this year, particularly next week against Kentucky, whose defense is too good to just let you go up and down the field.

Who knows if Jarrett Guarantano is completely healthy or how much he’ll play, but whoever is under center needs to test the Niners downfield all day.

No major injuries

Again, with basically no depth, the rest of this season is going to be an all-hands-on-deck situation if the Vols are going to have any chance of going to the postseason. Technically, UT could make a bowl at 5-7, and this is actually a year the Vols would need to take that with so much youth. But hopefully, they can get to the magic six-win window.

Is it sad we’re hoping for six wins again? Yes, it is. But it does feel like those days are coming to an end under Pruitt. This year is what it is.

The Vols can’t afford to suffer any major injuries like one to a quarterback, Jauan Jennings, Marquez Callaway, Daniel Bituli, Bryce Thompson, Alontae Taylor or Nigel Warrior. They need to keep those dudes healthy at all costs and win this game.

Prediction: It’s going to be ugly, but Tennessee will win relatively easily. Vols 34-13

LOCKS

I continued to limp last week to a 3-4 record, falling to 27-29 ATS this year [which pretty much mirrors the pick-em league I’m in]. After two really good years of picking games, this season, it just hasn’t been there. We’ll try to get back on track this week. We need a good 6-1 or 5-2 week to surge ahead.

I’d like to promise you it will be this week. The good news is that I’m 8-1 ATS in picking the MACtion and other early-week games so far. Maybe that’s the sign of a turnaround. Or maybe it’s just setting me up for failure. I like so many games this week, and that scares me. Let’s get to the picks.

1. MTSU -13.5 over Western Kentucky: In the past few seasons, this has been a rivalry game. But the Hilltoppers are awful this season with just one win. MTSU isn’t the same high-powered offense it’s been in recent years, but the Raiders still have enough of it to cover.
2. Georgia -9 over Kentucky: The Wildcats are a very nice story, and everybody should be excited about watching this team at home in such a huge game with the SEC East on the line. But the Bulldogs are still the cream of the SEC East, and UK doesn’t have the offensive horses to hang.
3. Florida -6 over Missouri: I don’t understand this line at all, especially with the Gators at home coming off a frustrating better-than-it-looked loss against Georgia. They will take care of business against Mizzou.
4. Boston College -2.5 over Virginia Tech: Did anybody see this Hokies defense against the run vs. Georgia Tech? Now they have to go against A.J. Dillon? Yes, this game is in Blacksburg. No, it won’t matter.
5. USC -16.5 over Oregon State: With JT Daniels now getting to play against perhaps the worst Power 5 defense in the nation, expect the Trojans to get better in a hurry.
6. California – Washington State over 50: Never bet the under in a game with a Mike Leach-coached team. I feel like this should be a maxim, even with this decent Wazzu D.
7. West Virginia +2 over Texas: This game is in Austin, and it’s not going to be easy. But I like Will Grier against the struggling ‘Horns secondary.