Three Days Before Early Signing Day: What We Know, What We Don’t Know, and What We Think

From when we took a look at things headed into this past weekend, things certainly have changed.  And when it comes to who showed up in Knoxville and who didn’t, and the overall vibe coming out of the weekend, it was pretty much 100% good news for the Vols.  The only no-show was Dyersburg LB Chris Russell, who had to reschedule his OV because he had an ill family member; however, he reaffirmed his initial plan to sign in February, so for Tennessee to be able to save that OV until January that should turn out to be good news. 

In terms of unexpected arrivals, suffice it to say that the weekend went from good to great pretty quickly.  5-star OL Darnell Wright made yet another trip from West Virginia while 5-star LB Quarvaris Crouchdrove in from Charlotte to spend more time on campus after what must have been a grand slam of an in-home visit from Head Coach Jeremy Pruitt and much of the staff late last week.  In addition, longtime JUCO WR target Javonta Payton, a Mississippi State commitment, was convinced to take an OV to Knoxville.  And finally, RB Eric Gray, who Volquest.com had hinted at possibly eschewing an OV to Texas A&M and instead driving yet again to Knoxville, did in fact visit Tennessee.  Those four, along with the visitors already scheduled, made for a star-studded weekend at just the right time mere days before the Early Signing Period begins on Wednesday.

What We Know

At this point the hay is in the barn in terms of the work Pruitt and Co. have done with the early signees.  Here’s what we know as of Monday morning December 17th:

We know that a least 16 of Tennessee’s 19 existing commitments (not counting Jalil Clemons who will not be a Vol), if not 17 (apparently there is some uncertainty with DL Darrel Middleton), will be signing this week.

We know that the remaining two commitments are DL Leddarius Cox and LB Lakia Henry.  Cox has seemed like a soft commitment almost from the day he pledged to the Vols, and although he has maintained all week at the AL/MS All-Star Game practices – where he’s performed pretty well by all accounts – that he is solid to the Vols, the fact that he’s not signing this week speaks volumes.  He’s got an OV scheduled to Ole Miss in January and in-state Auburn is still involved to some degree.  The picture with Henry is somehow even muddier than Cox’s, as he’s already taken his Tennessee OV back in November and along with an OV to Arkansas – who feels pretty good about their position – he just took an unofficial visit to Florida State this weekend with his family and landed an offer.  He’s obviously far from solid at this point and the guess here is that the Tennessee staff is planning accordingly.

We know that LB Ke’Shun Brown and DL Kristian Williams are off the board, committing to Texas A&M and Minnesota, respectively, over the weekend.  While Williams was a bit of a fall-back target who Tennessee was hoping would hold off on committing/signing anywhere until February, Brown was a legit target who the Vols hosted the previous weekend.  With Trezeman Marshall reaffirming his longstanding commitment to UGA over the weekend, that leaves Russell and Henry To’oto’to as major February targets at ILB.

We know that Tennessee had very successful official visits this weekend with DL Nick Figureoa, RB Noah Cain, and WR Jaylen Ellis, putting itself firmly in play for all three prospects.  Figureoa was admittedly leaning toward staying out West to play at USC before the visit, but he raved about his trip to Knoxville to the point that it’s clear the Vols are a real option.  Similarly, Cain said himself that he didn’t know what to expect coming in but that both he and his mother were blown away.  Ellis similarly had a great experience and looks to be a coin flip

What We Don’t Know

We don’t know if Wright is going to sign next week or continue to wait despite clearly being a massive Vol lean.

We don’t know if either Oklahoma commitment OL EJ Ndoma-Ogar, OLB Khris Bogle, or DB Jammie Robinson – who took an OV to Kentucky over the weekend – are going to sign on Wednesday or wait until February.  If Bogle signs this week it’s likely local favorite Miami.  If he waits the Hurricanes will have to sweat, among others, Alabama and Tennessee all the way to February.

We don’t know what WR targets Payton and Jadon Haselwood, who was at UGA over the weekend, are going to do.  While Haselwood appears to be a longshot for Tennessee, the fact that Payton took the last-minute OV to Knoxville (and apparently tried to hide it from MSU coaches and media) means that he is at worst very much considering flipping to the Vols.

We don’t know why Darrel Middleton signing this week is newly uncertain.  Is it grades?  Something else?  That’s unclear, but the situation certainly bears watching as he was presumably a December graduate who would enroll at Tennessee in January and be ready to get a spring practice in before contributing immediately next season.

Perhaps most importantly, we don’t know how many signees Tennessee can actually fit into this class within the NCAA mandated guidelines.  All along the thought has been that if the Vols want to get as many players into this class as possible there would need to be some mathematical gymnastics.  But at this point there don’t appear to be any blueshirts available among current commitments and top targets.  And with the Vols taking a full class last cycle no one outside of the staff knows how much room there really is.

What Do We Think?

We think that if the Vols land Figureoa, a 3-to-play-3 JUCO DL with good size and a great West Coast offer list, Tennessee will move on from Cox.  Figureoa will have simply replaced Cox and the Vols will still be sitting with the same number of commitments, yet they’ll have upgraded at the position with an instant-impact contributor on the DL.

We think that current commitment Aaron Beasley, 6’1 220 already and listed as a safety, is going to end up playing LB at Tennessee.  And we think that the Vols are in good shape with Russell.  And we think that Tennessee’s main competition for To’oto’to (Alabama) could simply run out of room regardless of whether they can beat the Vols straight up for him.  Therefore, we think that there will be a “mutual parting of ways” with Lakia Henry if Tennessee likes where it sits with the rest of its board at other positions.

We think that Tennessee needs at least one more WR in this class to go with stud Ramel Keyton but that they won’t have room for both Ellis and Payton, so whoever jumps in the boat first will get the spot.  We also think that Ellis is not going to have a spot at Michigan as the Wolverines look set to land their other major target for their final WR spot in Cornelius Johnson, so it is going to come down to staying closer to home and sticking with Baylor or getting instant playing time in the SEC for him.

We think that if one considers it to be very unlikely that Clemons, Cox and Henry end up signing with the Vols that leaves at most 8 spots for the following Baker’s Dozen of targets:

  1. OL Darnell Wright
  2. OL EJ Ndoma-Ogar
  3. RB Eric Gray
  4. RB Noah Cain
  5. WR Jaylen Ellis
  6. WR Javonta Payton
  7. WR Jadon Haselwood
  8. DL Nick Figureoa
  9. OLB Quarvaris Crouch
  10. OLB Khris Bogle
  11. ILB Chris Russell
  12. ILB Henry To’oto’to
  13. DB Jammie Robinson

We think that at this point Wright, Gray and Crouch are leaning toward the Vols, with Gray likely having given his commitment to the coaches and simply waiting until his scheduled Thursday announcement to go public.  Wright also seems likely to have committed to the coaches.  And while Crouch won’t announce until January 5th at the All-America Game, right now Tennessee has all the momentum. More will clear up about both Tennessee’s needs, spots, and who’s actually left once Wednesday rolls around.  Same for the schools who are recruiting those that won’t sign until February, and others who might jump in if they unexpectedly miss on other targets.  And there are other prospects who the Vols have put themselves in position to circle back to in January should the need arise, such as LB Octavius Brothers and DB Travis Jay among others.  Obviously not all 13 of those “no-question in a vacuum” takes are going to call Pruitt and want in (with Haselwood and Bogle being the least likely), but the Vols have absolutely swung momentum towards Knoxville at the best possible time.

Tennessee 102, Memphis 92: Admiral Schofield dominates in the renewed rivalry

Tennessee and Memphis haven’t met on the basketball court since 2013, but it didn’t take long for the rivalry to re-heat. The Vols seized control early, didn’t falter when the Tigers threatened to rally or when the refs got whistle happy, and ultimately cruised to a high-scoring 102-92 victory over the cross-state rivals Saturday afternoon. The game even featured some late drama in the form of offsetting technicals just to make sure the stage is set for next year’s meeting at Thompson-Boling.

The Vols exploded out of the gate, with Kyle Alexander winning the tip and immediately racing to the basket for a dunk on a quick assist from Grant Williams. From there, the Vols piled up the points with the Tigers stuck on 5, and by the time the clock read 15:29, Tennessee had a 19-5 lead. They kept what was essentially a 10-point cushion the rest of the way.

That’s not to say that things didn’t get interesting, as UT had to both weather a whistle storm and fend off the increasingly pesky Tigers. The first sign of trouble was Jordan Bone getting two fouls in the first two-and-a-half minutes, and the foul situation just worsened for both teams from there. It was like the officials just got new whistles for Christmas or something. In all, there were 57 fouls in the game, plus three technicals. At one point, you got the feeling that the players were as focused on selling fouls to the officials as they were executing their plays. I’ve never seen so many flops in such a short time span. Remarkably, only one player — Memphis’ Tyler Harris — actually fouled out of the game, as the refs did at least seem content to share the misery equally.

To complicate matters, Memphis really turned up the pressure as the game went on, and they were marginally successful at transforming the game into one of havoc and chaos. Tennessee committed 18 turnovers to the Tigers’ 9. And with the trigger happy officials watching for any opportunity to use their new toys, the usually-stifling Vols’ defense had real trouble keeping Memphis’ Kyvon Davenport off the scoreboard. At one point in the game, Davenport had 18 points in a row for the Tigers.

But none of that was sufficient to derail a focused Tennessee team. Once again, they rode the broad shoulders of Admiral Schofield, who netted another double-double with 29 points and 11 rebounds. He was 8-12 from the field, 4-8 from three, and a perfect 9-9 from the free throw line.

Williams and Bone played the supporting roles this afternoon, adding 19 and 17 points, respectively. Bone was 11-12 at the free throw line.

Jordan Bowden and Kyle Alexander also hit double digits in points, and at one point Alexander had an amazing stretch during which he blocked a three-point attempt, hit a three-pointer himself, and drew a charge on three consecutive possessions. He may not have ever cooled off if it weren’t for a Bone-to-Bowden alley-oop on the following possession.

In all, this was a terrific game for the Vols. They could have been complacent or otherwise lackadaisical after the big win over No. 1 Gonzaga last week, but they came out, seized control early, and never let go.

The cherry on top was that the game had that good old-fashioned rivalry feel to it when tempers flared as destiny settled in on the Tigers. This team is always fun to watch, but especially so against teams you love to beat.

The Final Countdown: Early Signing Day Approaches

With the Early Signing Period beginning next week, Tennessee has a very strong class of 2019 recruiting class.  However, especially with the large need for both talent and depth across the roster, the Vols still need to add more pieces. Below we take a look at how things could shake out between now and next week, as well as what awaits the Vols after the Early Signing Period into January and February

Update on Tennessee Commitment Signing Plans

Tennessee commitments ATH Aaron Beasley, DL Elijah Simmons and OL Melvin McBride, all of whom had previously planned on waiting to February to sign, have both now decided to sign on December 19th, meaning 17 of Tennessee’s 19 current commitments (not counting Jalil Clemons, who won’t be a Vol and pending JUCO DL Darel Middleton’s plans) will be in the boat when Tennessee moves on to fill out its class in February. 

The Vols are trying to get Lakia Henry to change his mind and sign next week as well.  He’s OV’d to both Tennessee and Arkansas – who seems to feel like it has some momentum – and FSU is flirting as well.  We’ll see if he changes his plans, which would be a relief for UT coaches as he’s currently the only LB commitment and looks like he could be an instant impact newcomer at a position of real need. 

Another commitment who is currently planning to sign in February is DL Ledarrius Cox.  Cox’s commitment has been considered to be pretty soft, and at some points it’s been unclear how hard Tennessee was trying to hold onto him.  But Vol coaches have been to see him a couple of times during the contact period, so they at least want to keep him on the burner.  He’s had a strong few first practices this week at the AL/MS All-Star Game and that could cause the Vols push even harder for his signing in February.  He’s stated this week that he’s solid to the Vols and is only waiting to sign because he wants/needs to take the ACT again (potentially a reason Tennessee has asked him to wait) but he does an OV to Ole Miss planned for late January and Auburn also remains an option.

A Look at This Weekend’s Visitor List

The Vols will have a large group of official visitors this weekend that includes a mix of current commitments as well as a handful of high level targets. 

WR Ramel Keyton, QB Brian Maurer, TEs Sean Brown and Jackson Lowe, CB Warren Burrell, DL Roman Harrison and Beasley (both fresh of GA state championships) and McBridewill be officially visiting their future home this weekend as they look to continue to bond as a group and likely do a lot of peer recruiting as well.  Additionally, OL Wanya Morris will be in town to hang out and do some peer recruiting of his own.

In terms of prospects the Vols are still fighting for, Tennessee has done a nice job of getting some very important players on its board to campus the weekend before the Dead Period begins and leads into Early Signing Period next week.

WR Jaylen Ellis will be making his long-awaited first visit to Knoxville.  The Army All-American from Texas – a fairly wide open Baylor “commitment” – has been a major target for Tennessee for months and actually had a few planned UVs to Knoxville this season that never panned out.  But WR Coach David Johnson has seen him a few times during the contact period and Pruitt has been inhome as well.  Ellis doesn’t plan on signing until February; however, he is planning to announce his decision at the Army All-American Game on January 5, so this will be his last OV before then.  At this point, despite not having yet decommitted from Baylor, he seems to have Michigan and Tennessee at the top.  He OV’d to Ann Arbor a few months ago, and while Michigan has continued to pursue Ellis heavily they are actually hosting their other top WR target Cornelius Johnson officially this weekend.  Johnson will announce his decision next week, so along with what should be a great visit in Knoxville there could be some further clarity in Ellis’s recruitment next week either way.  With the news of WR Khafre Brown’s commitment to UNC last weekend (more on that below) Ellis has become an incredibly important target for the Vols so expect them to really roll out the red carpet this weekend.  He’s got the kind of speed that doesn’t exist in the current UT WR corps and would be an incredible addition to the class.

RB Noah Cain from IMG Academy in Florida emerged this week as a new target on the board, as RB Coach Chris Weinke’s efforts to secure Cain’s last OV proved successful.  Cain is an elite RB, as evidenced by his other major suitors: Penn State, UGA, Auburn and Texas being the final contenders.  All four other schools have at one time felt good about their position with Cain, but Texas, UGA and Auburn in particular have other major RB irons in the fire at the moment (DJ Williams, Mark-Antony Richards, and Jamious Griffin among others) which could allow Tennessee to sneak in here.  The Nittany Lions are actually the perceived favorites going into the weekend, but the Vols feel like a potential darkhorse.  Cain’s IMG teammate Chris Akproroghene, who also helped the Vols land an OV from future UGA signee (and #1 overall player) Nolan Smith, seems to be helping with Cain as well.  This could turn out to be nothing, but the Vols absolutely would love to add a RB the caliber of Cain to go with (hopefully/likely) Eric Gray.

LB Chris Russell from Dyersburg, TN has emerged as a coveted recruit for multiple SEC schools in the last month or so, picking offers from Auburn and Texas A&M to go with one from the Vols in the last month or so. Arkansas has been involved here as well.  Russell has good size and speed – he tested very well at a Tennessee camp this past summer – and his senior film is outstanding.  As Tennessee has rejiggered its LB board in the last few weeks Russell has become a major target, and Pruitt was inhome this week ahead of the OV.  Currently Russell has said he plans to wait until February to sign, which would allow him to take his other OVs.  Should that happen Tennessee could find itself at a major disadvantage given that they have used their two most valuable visits, so expect the Vols to really press hard for at least a commitment as well as a signature next week.  While from a rankings perspective he’s a step down from someone like Owen Pappoe, Russell looks like a really fine prospect and frankly more of a true LB.  The Vols would be thrilled to add him to Lakia Henry.

DL Nick Figureoa is a very intriguing JUCO DL prospect who TE Coach Niedermeyer has done yeoman’s work with to get to Knoxville this weekend.  Figureoa is a big-bodied player who looks like he can play multiple positions across the DL, and is a rare JUCO player who’ll have three full seasons to play.  He’s a California native who’s got offers from, and has taken OVs to, both USC and UCLA, and the odds are that he ends up staying on the West Coast.  However, he’s clearly got enough interest in Tennessee and enough of a relationship with Niedermeyer to make the cross-country trip this weekend.  The Vols could absolutely use another DL in this class, let alone a highly recruited JUCO who will enroll early and would likely help immediately and happens to have three seasons to play.  This would be a big win if Tennessee could pull it off, and we’ll know next week.

WR Jerrod Means will also be in town officially.  The former UNC commitment from GA is a solid looking prospect who earned a Vol offer at a camp back in the summertime before he committed to the Tar Heels.  As a February signee he’s likely a secondary option while the Vols wait on other targets higher on the board.

Tennessee offered JUCO Rush End Everitt Cunningham late Tuesday night, and the early-enrollee from East Mississippi C.C. (home of UT commitment Darrel Middleton) could be one to watch if the Vols get him on campus this weekend.  He’s got a so-so offer list (UCF, Indiana, etc) but was a standout for the national champion EMCC team after going to JUCO winning the MVP of the national championship game.  At 6’5, 230 is the kind of prospect currently missing in this class (and, frankly, except for longshot Khris Bogle, on the entire board), so if the Vols do bring him to Knoxville and like what they see (and by all accounts he’s a great kid with a big motor who went JUCO not due to grades but to get better collegiate opportunities) he could end up filling a major need.

LB Jamie Pettway is another Alabama linebacker prospect who the Vols have been involved with for some time.  Pettway plans to sign next week, so if the Vols want to get back into the mix they’ll need to bring him in for an OV this weekend.  His other contenders include Louisville, Georgia Tech and Missouri.

It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Tennessee have more visitors than the list above.  In fact, Volquest.com has been reporting that despite reports that Gray would be taking his final OV to Texas A&M this weekend he will not take that visit and could in fact come back to Knoxville for the fifth time since the fall.  Obviously that would be a great sign for Tennessee in his recruitment, and assuming he’s all Vol he could be another peer recruiter for fellow offensive playmakers Ellis and Cain as well as Russell (a fellow West Tennessean).  There’s also been talk of either 5-star OL Darnell Wright coming to Knoxville, which, despite the longtime thought that he’s a major Tennessee lean, would be huge for the Vols whether he signs next week or sticks with his current (stated) plan to wait until February.  And finally, Volquest has also floated the idea that the Vols might have convinced WR Javonta Payton, a Mississippi State JUCO commitment, to come to Knoxville this weekend.  We’ll see who shows up, but the expectation here is that a handful of guys who aren’t confirmed as of this writing end up visiting Tennessee this weekend.

Weekend Visits to Watch Elsewhere

LB Ke’Shun Brown will OV to TexasA&M this weekend, one week after somewhat coming out of nowhere to take an official visit to Knoxville.  Brown is a 4-star LB from Alabama who got offers early in his recruitment from the likes of Alabama (when Pruitt was the DC), LSU (where he took an OV this summer) and others.  For whatever reason his recruitment stalled out a bit, but when the Vols and Aggies came calling – both at least in part due to losing out on LBs higher on their respective boards – Brown jumped at the opportunities.  Coming out of last weekend’s visit to Knoxville the Vols appear to be in strong position but the Aggies will surely make a push this weekend.    Pruitt was in his home early this week so Brown certainly he knows a priority for the Vols, and Brown is planning on signing next week, so Tennessee will know one way or the other here.

WR Jadon Haselwood was a somewhat surprising unofficial visitor in Knoxville last weekend.  The 5-star WR is a former UGA commitment who will be taking his final OV in Athens this weekend.  Miami and UGA appear to be the frontrunners, but Tennessee saw him this week so they must feel like they are in it at least a little bit.  Haselwood isn’t an EE but will announce at the Army All American Game on January 5.  It goes without saying that landing him would be a massive coup for Tennessee but at this point that appears unlikely.

DB Jammie Robinson is an underrated playmaker on both sides of the ball who visited Knoxville for the UF game after which the Vols became a serious contender.  Robinson has previously said that he would wait until February to sign despite having officially visited South Carolina (the current perceived favorite) and planning on OV’ing to Kentucky this weekend.  UT’s tie here is his former high school coach Shelton Felton who is on Tennessee’s staff, and at this point Robinson is one of a very few DBs who are legitimate targets.  He’s a dynamic player and would add a ton of speed and athleticism to a Tennessee secondary that needs it in spades despite a strong current commitment list.

LB Trezeman Marshall is a UGA commitment who the Vols have made a major push for.  However, he’ll be back in Athens this weekend and the smart money appears to be on him signing with the Dawgs next week despite his strong relationship with Tennessee DC Kevin Sherrer.

Falling Off the Board

Since last weekend it has become apparent that a handful of Tennessee targets will not be signing with the Vols:

WR Khafre Brown committed to home state North Carolina.  While the Vols seemed to slow-play him over the past few months, the staff had picked up its recruiting intensity such that it seemed like Brown was actually a Tennessee lean.  However, after taking yet another unofficial visit to Chapel Hill and meeting with new coach Mack Brown, Khafre elected to pledge to the Tar Heels, where his older brother is already on the team. 

 LB Owen Pappoe not only did not take his previously scheduled OV to Knoxville last weekend but instead was back on the Plains for another visit to Auburn.  Despite it looking not that long ago that Pappoe was certain to flip to the Vols this one appears over.

DB Kenyatta Watson, Wanya Morris’s (and Pappoe’s) teammate and Texas commitment appears to have shut down his recruitment and will sign with the Longhorns despite the Tennessee staff’s best efforts.

DL Keonte Schad took his OV to Minnesota last weekend and appears to have “fully committed” to the Golden Gophers after taking a handful of OVs elsewhere.  Tennessee never ended up getting him to campus.

Rush End Niadre Zouzoua took an OV to Baylor this weekend instead of his previously scheduled one to Knoxville, and the buzz is that he’s likely to commit to the Bears soon.  He hasn’t done it yet and it remains to be seen how hard the Vols are pushing here, but right now he doesn’t look like a future Vol.

WR George Pickens, another Auburn commitment, and Tennessee at one time seemed to have some mutual interest but that no longer appears to be the case.

DL Gabriel Hall was actually a late add to last weekend’s official visitor list for Tennessee, but despite what sounds like was a really nice time it appears the Baylor commitment is likely to stick with the Bears.

Adding to the Board, Laying the Foundation for February

Tennessee plans on signing upwards of 17-18 of its current 19 commitments and hopes to land a few more signees as well (Gray, Cain, Brown and potentially Ellis and Russell).  Regardless of how many more spots are remaining, the Vols will look to finish out their class with as much quality as possible.  The below are longtime Tennessee targets who plan to wait until February to make a decision:

OL Darnell Wright (pending a change)

OL EJ Ndola-Ogar

LB Henry To’oto’to

DE Khris Bogle

CB Travis Jay

DB Jammie Robinson

These five prospects are elite players for whom Tennessee will be fighting with other bigtime programs.  Wright is considered a heavy Vol lean but could still take OVs to Georgia and likely to Alabama in January as well.  To’oto’to is also a Tennessee-Alabama battle, while Bogle and Jay have the Tide along with the major Florida schools contending for their respective services.  Robinson’s situation will be worth watching next week. 

In order to have a full board to work from for January and into the February Signing Day, Tennessee has been offering new prospects. At WR the Vols have gotten fairly heavily involved with Arji Henderson, a recent OU decommitment from Texas who is a near 5-star prospect.  Henderson seems to be feeling the Vols and plans on OV’ing Knoxville in January.  Xavier Leggette is another WR on the board, and the South Carolina native has an OV scheduled to Knoxville in late January with the instate Gamecocks currently being the other contender.  Additionally, Tennessee recently offered Dy’wan Griffin, a New Orleans native who flew under the radar a bit but has a really intriguing size/speed combination and has only played one year of high school football.

Tennessee has also circled back with DL Kristian Williams from Memphis.  Williams, a 4-star DL on 247 Sports, was at one time planning to sign next week but has now pushed that back to February, potentially at Tennessee’s behest.  He’ll take an OV to Minnesota this weekend, and the Gophers are among his Top 4 with Indiana and Memphis.  In contrast to his rather lackluster offer list, Williams was a standout at both a major LSU camp last summer (where he dominated one-on-one matchups including vs. 5-star OG Kardell Thomas) as well as at a combine in May where he showed out as one of the most athletic defensive players.  Williams is also a city champion in shot put and at 6’2, 275 has really good strength and quickness.  Depending on how things shake out both on the DL as well as with other prospects, Williams could be a nice find for the Vols come February.

LB Octavius Brothers is a former UCF commitment who has recently gotten offers from Tennessee, Auburn, UNC and Syracuse among others.  He plans on taking an OV to Knoxville in January pending how things go at LB for Tennessee between Russell/Brown next week as well as To’oto’to.

Jahiegel wins the regular season pick ’em contest; bowl pick ’em now open

A belated congratulations to Jahiegel, who won this year’s regular-season-long GRT Pick ‘Em Contest (and also to PAVolFan, who won the final week of the season.) For their efforts, PAVolFan gets a Gameday on Rocky Top t-shirt, and Jahiegel gets a GRT hoodie. Watch for a message from me (it will come through the Fun Office Pools system) about how to claim your prize.

Gameday on Rocky Top Logo Tee

Here are the full results for the final week:

Rank Selection Name W-L Pts Tie Breaker Game (35-28)
1 PAVolFan 9-1 52 31-20
2 Jahiegel 8-2 51 34-28**
2 UTSeven 8-2 51 38-24
2 C_hawkfan 9-1 51 33-26
2 jfarrar90 8-2 51 38-21
2 LuckyGuess 8-2 51 34-24
7 wedflatrock 8-2 50 35-24**
7 tbone9591 8-2 50 35-24**
7 Joel @ GRT 8-2 50 31-25
7 UNDirish60 8-2 50 31-24
7 KeepsCornInAJar 9-1 50 34-17
7 Timbuktu126 9-1 50 24-21
13 GeorgeMonkey 7-3 49 38-24**
13 cnyvol 7-3 49 41-24
15 jstorie1 8-2 48 31-17**
15 birdjam 8-2 48 31-17**
17 DinnerJacket 8-2 47 35-20
18 chuckiepoo 7-3 46 38-27**
18 spartans100 7-3 46 31-21
18 rsbrooks25 8-2 46 48-27
21 alanmar 8-2 45 38-27**
21 mmmjtx 8-2 45 34-24
21 mariettavol 7-3 45 45-24
21 Phonies 6-4 45 31-17
25 chatty daddy 8-2 44 43-17**
25 tcarroll90 7-3 44 38-21
25 Gman15 8-2 44 41-31
25 TennRebel 7-3 44 24-10
29 Volfan2002 7-3 43 35-24**
29 MariettaVol1 7-3 43 45-29
31 mmb61 6-4 42 28-24
32 Bulldog 85 5-5 40 31-24**
32 Rossboro 6-4 40 0-0
34 Keep on truckin’ 5-5 37 31-24
35 Will Shelton 4-6 34 42-41
36 ChuckieTVol 0-10 33 0-0**
36 ddayvolsfan 0-10 33 -
36 VandyVol 0-10 33 -
36 Jayyyy 0-10 33 -
36 PensacolaVolFan 0-10 33 -
36 crafdog 0-10 33 -
36 ga26engr 0-10 33 -
36 Displaced_Vol_Fan 0-10 33 -
36 Raven17 0-10 33 -
36 Knottfair 0-10 33 -
36 TennVol95 in 3D! 0-10 33 -
36 Brandon88 0-10 33 -
36 War Birds 0-10 33 -
36 JohnCoctostan 0-10 33 -
36 BallerVawl 0-10 33 -
36 edgarmsmith 0-10 33 -
36 ctull 0-10 33 -
36 Pat OMalley 0-10 33 -
36 Dylan pickle 0-10 33 -
36 Willewillm 0-10 33 -
36 Anaconda 0-10 33 -
36 BZACHARY 0-10 33 -
36 RockyPopPicks 0-10 33 -
36 JLPasour 0-10 33 -
36 RockyTop5 0-10 33 -
36 Joelarbear 0-10 33 -
36 VillaVol 0-10 33 -
36 utvol2 0-10 33 -
36 Rocky4 0-10 33 -
36 tpi 0-10 33 -
36 ltvol99 0-10 33 -
36 vols95 0-10 33 -
36 aquasox 0-10 33 -
36 IndyVolFan 0-10 33 -
36 RandyH112 0-10 33 -
36 ThePowerT 0-10 33 -
36 Techboy 0-10 33 -
36 Fred4UT 0-10 33 -
36 BlountVols 0-10 33 -
36 King Nothing 0-10 33 -
36 Nick_Drake87 0-10 33 -
36 waltsspac 0-10 33 -
36 Orange Swarm 0-10 33 -
36 rockytopinky 0-10 33 -
36 BirdDawg55 0-10 33 -
36 patmd 0-10 33 -
36 tallahasseevol 0-10 33 -
36 Jrstep 0-10 33 -
36 Dmorton 0-10 33 -
36 dgibbs 0-10 33 -
36 IBleedVolOrange 0-10 33 -
36 CajunVol 0-10 33 -
36 daetilus 0-10 33 -
36 Aaron Birkholz 0-10 33 -
36 boro wvvol 0-10 33 -
36 OriginalVol1814 0-10 33 -
36 JWaldroop 0-10 33 -
36 Sam 0-10 33 -
36 Fightin Walking Horses 0-10 33 -
36 DMike 0-10 33 -
36 Smokin Turkeys 0-10 33 -
36 I guess Randy Sanders was good after all 0-10 33 -

And here are the final season standings:

Rank Player W/L Points
1 Jahiegel 191-76 2135
2 wedflatrock 189-78 2113
3 Volfan2002 186-81 2107
4 C_hawkfan 190-77 2093
5 PAVolFan 184-83 2091
5 birdjam 183-84 2091
7 GeorgeMonkey 183-84 2087
8 LuckyGuess 179-88 2075
8 spartans100 183-84 2075
10 cnyvol 172-95 2065
11 BZACHARY 178-89 2061
12 UNDirish60 185-82 2051
13 Fred4UT 174-93 2047
14 Bulldog 85 176-91 2043
15 mmb61 175-92 2033
16 UTSeven 168-99 2031
17 jfarrar90 174-93 2026
18 Displaced_Vol_Fan 168-99 2022
19 chuckiepoo 174-93 2013
20 alanmar 184-83 2008
21 mmmjtx 178-89 1999
22 TennRebel 183-84 1998
23 ChuckieTVol 159-108 1997
24 Rossboro 170-97 1982
25 Will Shelton 161-106 1981
26 boro wvvol 170-97 1980
27 JLPasour 169-98 1978
28 jstorie1 176-91 1976
28 Fightin Walking Horses 173-94 1976
30 ctull 172-95 1969
31 RockyTop5 161-106 1958
32 dgibbs 153-114 1956
33 Anaconda 171-96 1949
34 chatty daddy 175-92 1947
34 Joel @ GRT 172-95 1947
36 DinnerJacket 175-92 1942
37 Rocky4 167-100 1938
38 Phonies 162-105 1929
39 MariettaVol1 167-100 1927
40 tcarroll90 164-103 1923
41 VillaVol 147-120 1920
42 tpi 174-93 1917
43 mariettavol 156-111 1913
44 Joelarbear 160-107 1904
45 Raven17 157-110 1902
46 Dylan pickle 183-84 1899
47 tbone9591 167-100 1897
48 Jayyyy 152-115 1889
49 KeepsCornInAJar 170-97 1887
50 vols95 154-113 1876
51 crafdog 172-95 1854
52 daetilus 144-123 1843
53 Timbuktu126 176-91 1841
54 RockyPopPicks 156-111 1837
55 Willewillm 122-145 1824
56 ddayvolsfan 165-102 1821
57 Knottfair 116-151 1820
58 Gman15 158-109 1806
58 rsbrooks25 168-99 1806
60 Keep on truckin� 163-104 1802
61 BlountVols 137-130 1799
62 Sam 121-146 1796
63 ga26engr 153-114 1775
64 ThePowerT 100-167 1746
65 ltvol99 146-121 1745
66 DMike 94-173 1743
66 RandyH112 107-160 1743
68 Jrstep 136-131 1738
69 waltsspac 118-149 1716
70 edgarmsmith 102-165 1674
71 Nick_Drake87 77-190 1667
72 King Nothing 131-136 1653
73 Brandon88 72-195 1627
74 aquasox 90-177 1623
75 IndyVolFan 136-131 1615
76 TennVol95 in 3D! 114-153 1607
77 Orange Swarm 73-194 1602
77 JWaldroop 61-206 1602
79 patmd 117-150 1601
80 rockytopinky 80-187 1589
81 Dmorton 100-167 1575
82 PensacolaVolFan 120-147 1522
83 OriginalVol1814 47-220 1513
84 BallerVawl 58-209 1483
85 tallahasseevol 49-218 1472
86 VandyVol 34-233 1467
87 CajunVol 56-211 1464
88 Techboy 70-197 1451
89 War Birds 49-218 1442
90 Smokin Turkeys 22-245 1434
91 Pat OMalley 31-236 1376
92 Aaron Birkholz 10-257 1357
93 utvol2 11-256 1356
94 BirdDawg55 45-222 1351
95 IBleedVolOrange 10-257 1319
96 JohnCoctostan 0-267 1305
96 I guess Randy Sanders was good after all 0-267 1305

GRT 2018 Bowl Pick ‘Em

Yes, we’re also having a bowl pick ’em this year, and it’s now open for business. The bowl pick ’em will use the same rules used during the regular season. Because our printing equipment decided to step into tech eternity just after all of the Black Friday and Cyber Monday orders came in, the only prize this time around is bragging rights.

If you’ve played in one of our pools before, you should’ve received an email with sign-up instructions. You can also sign up using this link.

Tennessee at Memphis Preview

In a year when the Vols weren’t ranked third and didn’t just beat number one, this would still be a weekend for celebration. In this year, reflecting on the return of the Tennessee-Memphis rivalry is a joy on multiple levels.

The Vols and Tigers met annually from 1988-89 through 2001-02. Only six of those games featured a ranked Tennessee or Memphis squad: three for each side, and never in the same year. One of those came in December 1992, when #8 Memphis led by Penny Hardaway came to Knoxville and lost 70-59 to Allan Houston’s Vols. 

Memphis won the next three, then Kevin O’Neill and Jerry Green put together a five-game winning streak. Buzz Peterson’s first team lost by two to John Calipari’s first team, and then Calipari helped keep the rivalry paused.

It made me smile to read The Athletic’s oral history of the 2008 1 vs 2 Vols/Tigers clash:


“We went to their practice and Calipari expressed how much he did not like Tennessee in so many words. He was like, This is not a game. This is a war.”

Doc Evans, brother of Tyreke Evans

When it stopped, Buzz Peterson was trying to reload from Jerry Green’s four straight NCAA Tournament runs. Calipari was trying to rebuild his own image after sanctions at UMass and a failed three-year stint with the New Jersey Nets. Memphis hadn’t been to the NCAA Tournament in six years.

One part recruiting, one part football, one part Calipari – who would later champion playing anyone, anywhere, anytime, but clearly never wanted Tennessee home-and-home. By the time it returned in January 2006, Bruce Pearl was at Tennessee and Memphis was ranked fourth under Calipari. Pearl was a couple weeks away from the win over Florida that truly sparked that first-year run, and Memphis won at home 88-79 with Pearl raising Dane Bradshaw’s hand at the scorer’s table late in the game. But by the time it rolled back around the following year, the Vols were ready, and Chris Lofton put on what remains the single best individual performance from a Tennessee player in my post-Ernie/Bernie lifetime.

From there we got 1 vs 2, the first of three straight road wins in the series. Calipari went to Kentucky, then the Tigers went 3-0 against Cuonzo Martin the first two years, including a double overtime classic in Maui.

And then it was gone again. But now it’s back, for at least the next three years.

Calipari’s argument was, in part, that Tennessee benefited from playing Memphis far more than Memphis from playing Tennessee. If that was ever true while the two teams were playing, it was only in Pearl’s first year. The Vols were the Tigers’ equal on the floor afterward, and when Calipari left and Memphis bounced from a depleted Conference USA to the American? Now the opportunity has shifted hard to the Tigers.

Under Rick Barnes the Vols recruit nationally and successfully. Under Penny Hardaway, the spark is back on the banks of the Mississippi in ways Josh Pastner could never duplicate and Tubby Smith threatened to extinguish entirely. The Tigers haven’t made the NCAA or NIT since 2014. But Hardaway is doing work on the recruiting trail, including 7’0″ Memphis East five-star James Wiseman. 

Maybe my favorite part: while Pearl’s Tennessee teams quickly became the equal to Calipari’s Memphis teams, Barnes’ Tennessee teams have done the same with Calipari’s at Kentucky. Rick Barnes is 4-3 against the Cats at UT: his Vols are undefeated against Kentucky in Knoxville, beat the Cats in Rupp last season, won the SEC title and are currently ranked #3 to Kentucky’s #19. 

I’m grateful for Calipari the way Memphis fans should be grateful for Pearl: those two personalities gave that rivalry that little extra something. But this new chapter is exciting as well, with Barnes proving the Vols can be a stable force on the national scene, and Hardaway putting the Tigers back on the path to joining them. Fighting and blaming aside (on both sides), Tennessee and Memphis should play each other every year, no matter who thinks who gets the greater benefit. Both programs should be good enough to sustain it, and the rivalry deserves it.

This time around? Memphis is 5-4 and 118th in KenPom, but properly tested against the tier above them. Their best win is your choice of Yale in 2OT (99th KenPom) or South Dakota State (77th). But they also have a nine-point losses to LSU and an 11-point loss to #11 Texas Tech, who they led by nine at halftime before getting blown out in the second half.

The Tigers live by forcing turnovers (25th in turnover percentage) and getting offensive rebounds (33rd). 5’9″ freshman Tyler Harris is getting some early hype, knocking down 39.5% from three. But Hardaway is also getting the most out of his upperclassmen: 6’8″ senior Kyvon Davenport and 6’6″ senior Raynere Thornton are the forces on the glass, and Memphis can go small and aggressive on defense in a hurry.

The ascension in Knoxville, the hope in Memphis, and the rivalry itself should make for all kinds of fun tomorrow. High noon, ESPN. Welcome back, Memphis. I’m sure we’ll both keep pretending the other side missed it more than we did.

Go Vols.

Ranking the Gonzaga Win & Admiral Schofield’s Performance

Let’s rank yesterday even though it’s way too early to do so without the context of the entire season!

There are two clear-cut games at the top of my list. The Sweet 16 win over Ohio State will stand until the Vols make it to the Final Four; bonus points there from the 2007 Sweet 16 loss to the Buckeyes, properly avenged. And 1 vs 2 with Memphis in 2008 is fairly unassailable for the rest of all of our lives: the rivalry, Calipari, an undefeated Memphis and the Vols ascending to number one is once-in-a-lifetime stuff.

But after those two, it kind of depends on what you prefer. There’s a separate list of best Kentucky wins – last year at Rupp, Lofton at Rupp, beating them on the last day of the regular season to win the SEC East in Knoxville in 1999 (my personal favorite). There are wins on the way up, like 2006 vs Florida, that carry a “I can’t believe we’re doing this” quality. And that’s really how to best describe the last win over number one, when the Vols beat Kansas in 2010 after four players were suspended or dismissed just ten days earlier. 

Yesterday was not, “I can’t believe we’re doing this.” That felt like an Elite Eight game (or maybe a Final Four game, who knows!). It was two legitimate title contenders trading blows for 40 minutes; the 2008 Memphis game is the only comparison there. If that’s more your style – and hopefully it becomes more our style going forward – then I think you can make a case for that game as high as #3 on your list.

For me personally, I’m going 2010 Ohio State, 2008 Memphis, 1999 Kentucky, then yesterday, followed by 2010 Kansas and 2006 Florida. The rest of the season will determine how high or low it ultimately lands. Either way, it’s in pretty good company.

Perhaps even more impressive: let’s rank Admiral Schofield’s performance

The best individual performance I’ve seen from a Tennessee player is Chris Lofton vs Memphis in December 2006. People forget it because that shot over Durant was 17 days later, but in that game Lofton had 35 on only 8-of-24 shooting (plus 12-of-13 at the line). Against #17 Memphis, Lofton was 12-of-18, 6-of-11 from three, and scored 21 of his 34 points in the first half. It’s the best offensive performance – not just best three-point shooting – against a good team I’ve ever seen at Tennessee.

Yesterday, Schofield had 30 on #1 Gonzaga. He had 25 in the second half, and 11 in the last 3:18, including the game-winner.  

https://twitter.com/SeanFarnham/status/1071973319430176770

There have been some epic performances in school history. The iconic Ernie and Bernie games are both legion and before my time; the media guide highlights Ernie putting 43 on Kentucky in 1976, while Bernie had 40+ five different times. In my lifetime, Allan Houston had 43 in a 119-113 loss to LSU in Shaq’s freshman year. Ron Slay had 38, but the quality of opponent (New Mexico) will keep him a little further down the list. More recently we’ve seen Grant Williams with 37 at Vanderbilt and Kevin Punter with 36 vs #24 South Carolina.  

I think it’s at least safe to say that Schofield’s performance yesterday was the best we’ve seen since Lofton. In the aforementioned Lofton-at-Rupp game in 2006, he had 31 on 7-of-10 from the arc, Tennessee’s first win in Lexington in seven years. I’d still put the Lofton-vs-Memphis performance at number one, and probably Lofton-at-Rupp number two. But Schofield yesterday might be number three in the post-Allan Houston era. He was a volume shooter all day, but the late flurry helped him finish at 12-of-22 and 6-of-10 from the arc. Gonzaga wasn’t known for their defense, but that was still the number one team in the nation. Again, pretty good list to be on. 

#7 Tennessee 76 #1 Gonzaga 73: Sir, Yes Sir

Tennessee took 72 shots to Gonzaga’s 59, pulled down 16 offensive rebounds and only turned it over seven times. The Zags countered by getting to the free throw line: 19 attempts to Tennessee’s 10, though either team shooting it better could’ve won today with the Vols at 60% and Gonzaga at 63%. If you were a casual fan just watching two Top 10 teams, you got your money’s worth: Hachimura and Clarke each had 21 for Gonzaga, while Schofield – we’ll get to him in a minute – had 30 and Grant Williams added 16-12-7.

The box score at ESPN lists only six blocked shots in this game – four for the Vols, two for Gonzaga – but it felt like thrice as many. We knew going in these were two of the best shot-blocking teams in the nation, and boy did it live up to it. Brandon Clarke had one of the best blocks I’ve ever seen in my life on Yves Pons; Tennessee has a player like Pons who will try to dunk with no regard for his own life for the first time in forever. But the Vols answered with blocks that would have seemed spectacular had they taken place in any other game, but were just as critical. Two of them belonged to John Fulkerson, who played a bunch as the Vol bigs were saddled with foul trouble in the first half.

The threat of those blocks definitely affected Tennessee, especially after offensive rebounds. Jordan Bone was 2-for-13, Kyle Alexander had only two points, and Schofield took 22 shots.

But he made them count.

Gonzaga led by nine with 6:15 to play. The Vols stayed alive behind Jordan Bowden and Jordan Bone: a Bowden three, a Bone fast break layup, and another Bowden three cut it to three less than 90 seconds later. Grant Williams scored to get it back to three with 3:38 to play. 

Schofield would bury a three to tie it on the next possession, but the story shifted back to Grant Williams, who fouled out with 2:49 to play. Williams missed the overtime against #2 Kansas in Brooklyn, and the Vols failed to get a stop in the extra session without him, ultimately falling to the Jayhawks. 

Not this time.

After Williams fouled out, the Zags sank three free throws. But they went 0-for-4 from the floor. Meanwhile, the Vols went to Schofield:

  • Three to tie it at 68 at 3:18
  • Jumper to pull within one at 2:19
  • Banked three for the lead at 1:20
  • NBA three for the lead for good with 24 seconds left
https://twitter.com/marchmadness/status/1071892970083966976

With Gonzaga looking for answers, Jordan Bowden did a fantastic job covering Zach Norvell and denying him the ball. Norvell and Schofield had been jawing for most of the second half (what kind of crazy person talks to Schofield, I have no idea). The Admiral got the last laugh.

Gonzaga had not scored less than 81 points this year. They left with 73 and a loss today. Tennessee beat the number one team in the nation for the first time since 2010, and you’d be hard pressed to find a win like this in the eight years since. 

A game like this in December is really about March, where last year the Vols won the SEC. But a win like this in December allows us to take a look at the ceiling and nod. Yep, it’ll hold.

Go Vols.

Tennessee vs Gonzaga Preview

Gonzaga will be the third KenPom Top 50 opponent the Vols have faced in their first eight games. But we’re only scheduled to face three others between mid-December and mid-February. Tennessee’s SEC schedule is back-loaded this year: both dates with Kentucky fall in the last seven games, and the regular season ends with Mississippi State and Auburn. Other than those three conference foes, the only current KenPom Top 50 teams left on the schedule are Florida (January 12 & February 9) and West Virginia (January 26).

If Tennessee is thinking about a one seed and wants to get there via something other than a run at an undefeated season in SEC play, this would be a good win to get. When it’s the team with #1 next to their name on the other side, you typically don’t need additional motivation. But the Vols, having already flirted with #2 Kansas, have earned the right to think about more than just beating the top team for a day.

To do that? Defense better travel.

Gonzaga is number one in KenPom’s offensive ratings. They hung 91 on Arizona, 89 on Duke, and 103 on Creighton. The Bulldogs shoot 38.8% from three and 61.2% from two. The latter is second-best in the country, and the two combine to give Gonzaga the nation’s fourth best effective field goal percentage. They’re also 13th in turnover percentage, giving the ball away on just 14.7% of possessions.

The Vols have experience facing such a great offense: last year KenPom’s top two offenses belonged to Villanova and Purdue. For Gonzaga, Rui Hachimura gets top billing here – leading scorer, hit the game-winner against Washington on Wednesday – but KenPom loves what Brandon Clarke, Zach Norvell, and Josh Perkins are doing behind him.

Hachimura is more of a volume scorer and gets to the line. If you want raw efficiency, Brandon Clarke is 62-of-86 (72.1%) on the year, 14th nationally in effective field goal percentage and 25th in offensive rebounding percentage. Throw in 6’11” Filip Petrusev off the bench, and the Vols will have their hands full on the defensive interior. It’s easy to spend too much time on Hachimura and simply get beat by Clarke instead.

Luckily, the Vols will bring Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, and Kyle Alexander to the party. These match-ups when Gonzaga has the ball should be so much fun to watch. Unlike going against Kansas or North Carolina the last two years, the Vols and Gonzaga are built much more in each other’s image: lineups full of upperclassmen, guys who play well together, and multiple ways to beat you.

If the Vols can work Gonzaga to a draw inside, you still have to defend Norvell and Perkins in the back court. Norvell is the designated three-point shooter, launching 8.7 per game and hitting 38.5%. Perkins is the senior point guard, 33rd nationally in assist rate and also plenty capable from three (38.9% on four attempts per game) and a 90% free throw shooter. There are no weak spots, and those four guys all run 26-32 minutes per game.

The good news: Tennessee is 12th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Vols are capable of defending well enough to win this thing.

Is Gonzaga? They beat Duke in part because R.J. Barrett went 9-of-25 and the Blue Devils didn’t defend well against Gonzaga’s ball screens. They bested Creighton by getting to the line 17 more times than their opponent. And their last-second win over Washington included Gonzaga shooting 19-of-19 at the line.

I expect Tennessee to offer a greater challenge on the defensive end than Washington, Creighton, and Duke-in-Maui (as opposed to Duke-in-March). And the Vols should also be just as capable, if not more so, of attacking on the offensive end. Gonzaga does not force turnovers, 295th nationally. Opportunities should be there for Tennessee to run its offense and take advantage, even if Lamonte Turner is still limited.

Perhaps the biggest question for this game: who wins the shot-blocking/foul-calling battle? Gonzaga is 48th in shot-blocking percentage and 41st in fewest shots blocked. The Vols are 23rd in shot-blocking percentage and fourth in the nation in fewest shots blocked, getting rejected on just 3.8% of attempts. Tennessee is slightly better at shot-blocking, Gonzaga slightly better at getting to the line. But the single best player at getting to the line in this game is still Grant Williams.

This one should be all kinds of fun. Kansas proved we’re at the point where we can take Tennessee quite seriously in beating the number one team in the nation. Let’s go do it.

Sunday, 3:00 PM in Phoenix, where great things involving number one teams have happened to this university before. Put some orange in your Advent wardrobe on Sunday morning.

Go Vols.

 

Strikes and Gutters, Ups and Downs: Taking the Temperature of the Board

With one more week of coaches visits across the country, Tennessee’s recruiting board for the class of 2019 looks as jumbled as ever.  The staff has been solidifying current commitments while at the same time trying to complete the class, and below we take a look at how things look heading into the penultimate weekend for the Early Signing Day

Temperature Down

LB Owen Pappoe has been an Auburn commitment since May, but many thought he would ultimately flip to Tennessee and join his high school teammate Wanya Morris.  After visiting Knoxville unofficially in November and then setting up an OV for this coming weekend – all while not setting up an OV to Auburn – things were certainly trending that way.  However, after an inhome visit from Auburn Head Coach Gus Malzahn and most of the Tiger staff – and despite a visit from a few Tennessee staffers – Pappoe on Wednesday tweeted out a reaffirmation of his commitment to Auburn and then proceeded to cancel his OV to Tennessee this weekend.  While Jeremy Pruitt still has his inhome available, it remains to be seen if that will happen and how effective it might even be in securing a visit from Pappoe, whose mother by all indications is adamant that he keep his word and sign with Auburn and who would absolutely need to be persuaded in order to have her son sign with UT.  This might not be 100% over, but in a matter of hours it went from looking like the Vols were going to sign this highly touted LB/Star to that being very doubtful

CB Kenyatta Watson is a Texas commitment who the Vols have been trying to flip for months.  Also a teammate of Morris, the Tennessee staff has visited him multiple times in the last few weeks in an attempt to at least get him to take an OV to Knoxville.  So far that effort has proved fruitless, and at this point it seems more likely than Watson simply shuts it down and signs with Texas in two weeks than that he ever sets foot in Knoxville

DL Justin Eboigbe is an Alabama commitment who has visited Tennessee a few times, most recently unofficially for the Kentucky game in November.  And while the Vols were hoping he’d follow that up with an OV to Knoxville before he signs, he will be visiting Miami this weekend and then Alabama the next.  He was always a longshot to actually flip from the Tide, but the Vols were at least going to need an OV to give them a fighting chance.  Without that you can probably cross him off the list

DL Zion Logue and Bill Norton are two Tennessee natives and Georgia commitments who the Vols have been trying to flip for months.  And while Logue has continued to harbor hard feelings towards Tennessee for not being the first school to offer, Norton as recently as Thursday morning was thought to be a real contender for a flip.  However, a visit from the UGA staff seems to have convinced him to take his OV to Georgia this weekend and shut it down.  Once again this one might not be completely over for the Vols but it’s gone from promising to unlikely in a blink of an eye.  Such is recruiting…

RB DJ Williams has blown up since his senior film got out, and while Tennessee was one of the first major schools to offer him, and have visited him during the open period, they never seemed to get much traction.  At this point it appears they won’t get a visit and Williams is likely headed to either Miami or another school in the SEC

LB Quarvaris Crouch has been a longtime target for the Vols and at one time was considered a Tennessee lean.  However, despite taking an OV to Knoxville late in the season, this one seems to have finally and completely slipped away from the Vols despite the staff’s best efforts.  At this point Crouch is a heavy Clemson lean with Michigan right behind them and the Vols a distant and irrelevant third

Temperature Up

It’s not all doom and gloom this week, as Tennessee has made some major headway with more than a handful of its high level targets

WR Jaylen Ellis, a Baylor commitment in name only, has confirmed that he will be taking his OV to Knoxville the weekend of December 14th.  He’s perhaps going to be at Houston this weekend, which would mean that his Tennessee OV will be his 5th and final.  His current plan is to announce at the All-America Game in early January and sign in December, but the Vols have placed themselves in very good position.  One would think that Ellis, especially as a kid from Texas, would very much take a shine to Tennessee hiring current Houston OC Kendall Briles as its leader on offense.  Whoever the hire is should be wrapped up by the time Ellis comes to campus, so that could play a factor here

RB Eric Gray received another visit from Tennessee coaches this week and the vibe continues to be good here for the Vols.  As discussed below he could potentially be in Oxford this weekend, but all signs point to the Gatorade Player of the Year and 3-time Tennessee Mr. Football signing with UT in two weeks.  Gray is another prospect who will be very interested in Tennessee’s OC hire

LB Trezeman Marshall also got a ton of facetime with Tennessee coaches this week, and it remains clear that the Vols are in deep with this current UGA commitment.  Georgia still has its OV should Marshall choose to visit there, but that is TBD.  Especially with the Pappoe news, Marshall becomes that much more important for Tennessee at a position of extreme need

LB Henry To’oto’to is another important LB target for the Vols, and while this is a Tennessee-Alabama race there is no doubt that Tennessee is putting in more work here currently than the Tide.  TE Coach Brian Niedermeyer has been out to California twice in the last 2-3 week to visit with the Army All-American, and when he signs in February Alabama could be full at the position.  This one has a ways to go as both SEC schools will get OVs in January and West Coast powers won’t give up, but right now the Vols are in about as good of a spot as they could hope to be

LB Chris Russell from Dyersburg is a newer player on Tennessee’s board but, especially considering the Pappoe news, has moved up at least one rung.  The former Memphis commit is seeing his recruitment go the opposite direction of current Tennessee commitment Jailil Clemons (more below) as he’s picked up offers from Auburn and Texas A&M to go with one from the Vols in the last month or so.  Russell has good size and speed – he tested very well at a Tennessee camp this past summer – and his senior film is outstanding.  He’s a February signee so Tennessee, like other suitors, will be able to reassess their overall needs and room post-December 19th.  But given that Marshall is a UGA commitment from Georgia and the Vols are fighting Alabama for To’oto’to it’s not unlikely that there will still be a need for Tennessee at LB come January and Russell will start getting more attention from the Vols

OL EJ Ndoma-Ogar is an Oklahoma commitment from Texas who sort of showed up out of the blue for an OV in Knoxville for the Alabama game and had an incredible trip.  While he has remained committed to the Sooners, Vol coaches have not given up and have visited him on more than one occasion in the contact period.  Tennessee is trying to get him to hold off on signing in December – when he would almost certainly sign with OU – and instead wait until February and come back to Knoxville with his family.  Should that happen the Vols would obviously have to be considered to be in strong shape, and regardless of what happens with 5-star OL Darnell Wright – for whom the Vols continue to lead but who won’t sign until February – Ndoma-Ogar is a 100% take for Tennessee.  We’ll know more in a few weeks

DB Jammie Robinson from Georgia has been to Tennessee once this fall for UF game.  UT’s tie here is his former high school coach Shelton Felton who is on Tennessee’s staff, and Felton – who has been on the road since Tyson Helton left the staff – paid Robinson a visit this week.  Robinson is a February signee and the he currently only has a UK visit set up for the 12/14 weekend after taking one in the summer to South Carolina.  The Vols are in line to get one, however, and although UGA is sniffing around here this one looks like a Tennessee-South Carolina battle right now.  With Kenyatta Watson basically falling off the board, Robinson is one of a very few DBs who are legitimate targets.  He’s a dynamic playmaker and would add a ton of speed and athleticism to a Tennessee secondary that needs it in spades despite a strong current commitment list

CB Travis Jay is a new name to the board.  The FSU commitment is not signing until February and is adamant about taking visits.  Florida, Alabama, and Tennessee are among a handful of major programs who are trying to wedge their way into this one, and after some of the Vols staff visited Jay this week he stated that at least both Tennessee and UF would get January OVs.  FSU isn’t giving up here though, so this will be a battle for the Vols should they continue to try and remain players here

Tennessee recently started showing interest in Arkansas RB commitment A’Montae Spivey.  Spivey is coming off winning a state title for Phenix City Central HS in Alabama’s top classification (7A) and some consider him to have the best size/speed combination in the state. He’s a February signee so there’s lots of time here, but file that name away should the Vols find themselves with room for a 2nd RB to go with (hopefully) Gray

Who’s Coming to Knoxville this Weekend?

Despite this being the second to last visit weekend before the Early Signing Period begins on 12/19, as of this writing only commitments Tyus Fields, Jackson Lampley and Elijah Simmons are confirmed as an official visitor for Tennessee.  There have been rumblings of Tennessee getting 5-star Jadon Haselwood to campus for an unofficial visit.  He’s taken 4 OVs and he’s booked to be in Athens the 12/14 weekend so that would be a win for the Vols to get him on campus, but until he shows up that’s simply a rumor and regardless the odds are he signs with UGA.  Another prospects who’s been rumored to come to Knoxville is WR Khafre Brown, a Vol lean who Tennessee would take in a heartbeat.  One would think that Tennessee will get some more visitors to campus this weekend, but as of now it’s relatively light

Other Weekend Visits to Watch

With Tennessee’s weekend visitor list up in the air, Vol coaches and fans will be watching prospects take visits elsewhere and hope that no one else comes off the board

Current Tennessee commitment OLB Jalil Clemons has booked a trip to Memphis to visit the Tigers this weekend, and it looks like for all intents and purposes that he will not sign with the Vols. Reports suggest that no Tennessee coaches have visited him since the contact period began, he doesn’t have a UT OV scheduled, and when a Mississippi kid doesn’t have offers from the big instate schools and in fact is visiting a G5 school you can see the writing on the wall.  Clemons is a solid prospect whose profile – from size to offers – is probably a better fit for a program like Memphis, and this will give Tennessee another spot in this class

RB Eric Gray is currently scheduled to visit Ole Miss this weekend, but according to the 247 Ole Miss site that visit isn’t confirmed and in fact old friend Robert Gillespie is trying to get Gray to visit Columbia, SC to see what the Cock$ have to offer.  Obviously Tennessee would prefer neither visit to occur, but if I were the Vols my preference would be South Carolina, where he’s been infrequently if in fact ever, vs. Ole Miss, who is considered to be Tennessee’s main competition at the moment

JUCO DL Nick Figureoa and Keonte Schad will be taking OVs to Virginia Tech and Minnesota, respectively.  What will be interesting to find out – assuming he doesn’t commit on the visit – is how the California native Figureoa feels about the cross country travel to Blacksburg and how that impacts his feeling about not just attending Tennessee but simply taking an OV to Knoxville.  He’s got numerous other options for his last (12/14) visit weekend and it’s far from a sure thing that Tennessee lands it.  For Schad, his visit to Minnesota will see the Gophers staff try to solidify their commitment.  Should he not shut it down and elect to take his last OV next weekend, Tennessee will be in a fight with Oklahoma for that one.  Given the needs at DL I think the Vols would happily take either or both prospects

JUCO Rush End Niadre Zouzoua will be visiting Baylor.  Zouzoua had originally been planning to officially visit Tennessee this weekend and Baylor the next, but it remains unclear if he’s going to swap weekends or simply not visit UT.  He’s an EE with good size and burst from the edge, and with the absolute dearth of other Rush End options it would be good for Tennessee to at least get him on campus to give themselves a chance should they want to sign him.  We’ll see…

LB Jamie Pettway will be visiting Georgia Tech, and while he’s currently a backup option for the Vols at LB and won’t be signing until February he’s a solid prospect and Tennessee could circle back with him after the December signing period depending on how things go with other LBs higher on the board

Three Questions for Anyone We Hire

Why was the offense so slow in 2018?

With Tyson Helton moving on as the head coach at Western Kentucky, it becomes a little easier to view his time in Knoxville objectively. We pointed to Tennessee’s pace of play throughout the season, and it’s especially jarring at the end: 716 total snaps was the lowest total in the post-Fulmer era, and last in the SEC by a huge margin (Mississippi State was 13th with 763 total snaps – stats via SportSource Analytics). This has to be taken into account when throwing around season totals: the Vols were thus last in the SEC in yards per game, as you’d expect with such few opportunities. But per play, the Vols were 12th at 5.46 ypp, just behind Auburn at 5.47 and ahead of LSU and Arkansas. That number isn’t anything to write home about, but neither is Tennessee’s decade…and in that context, the Vol offense was more productive per play than 2011, 2013, 2014, and last year’s atrocious 4.77. And something we always need to repeat, even though we’re used to it: the Vols played one of the nation’s most difficult schedules, #2 in S&P+. The going is never easy in Knoxville.

From game one, it was the theme in 2018: competence without excellence, better than last year though it would’ve been hard to be worse. In 2017 the Vols had so few snaps (732) in large part because they were that bad offensively. Larry Scott’s offense punted more often (5.9 per game to 5.5 this year), turned it over more (18 to 16), and was significantly worse on third down (30.67% to 38.22%). Last year the Vols ran so few plays because they had no other option. This year the Vols seemed to be going slow with more purpose. Will that be a theme going forward? How long will Jeremy Pruitt feel a need to protect his defense?

In Tennessee’s advanced statistical profile (via Bill Connelly) the Vols finished the regular season 30th in passing explosiveness and 23rd in third-and-long success rate. The offense finished 62nd in S&P+ – again, nothing to celebrate, but significantly better than the defense (96th) fared. That’s not a knock on Jeremy Pruitt; I think both numbers say more about Butch Jones than anyone. But I also think this trend will continue into 2019, regardless of who serves as offensive coordinator.

Will the offense be encouraged to lead the way in 2019?

If Tennessee’s biggest problems this fall were in the trenches – can’t block, can’t get pressure on the quarterback – the former seems to stand a much better chance of improving given the entire starting defensive line will graduate. Tennessee’s offensive line should benefit from a healthy Brandon Kennedy and an additional year of experience for some players, plus the arrival of five-star Wanya Morris and four-star Jackson Lampley. But right now, I’m not sure who the starters will be on the defensive line, let alone the backups, and the 2019 class currently holds no blue-chip commitments for that unit.

More than that, all of Tennessee’s offensive starters could/should return from a unit that was slow, but had its moments. In the right hands, the Vol offense could be potent in 2019; in anyone’s hands, they might still have to lead the way as Pruitt rebuilds the defensive line.

So whose hands those ultimately end up being is important, both for making the most of the returning experience next year, but also having the trust of the head coach. I don’t know how much the head coach’s fingerprints were on the Vols being so deliberate/slow this season. I do assume Pruitt needs someone he can trust more fully in the OC role; we’ve seen far too many well-regarded coordinators turn out to be a bad fit with the head coach, creating unfruitful compromises.

If it’s Hugh Freeze…

Along those lines, we might be a little too easily convinced Freeze is the best or only option. Aside from the obvious and the NCAA issues, both of which make me uncomfortable, Freeze could present more problems with both the floor and the ceiling.

Pruitt’s initial staff was built on pre-existing relationships; in some ways there’s a greater risk of failure in bringing in an outsider and hoping the fit is right. There’s a chance Freeze’s name ends up on a list with Bob Shoop: a great coach in a different setting, but if his vision clashes with that of the head coach (or if, when the going gets tough, Freeze – whose only coordinator gig was one year at Arkansas State – doesn’t respond well as the OC when he knows what it’s like to win big as the HC) it simply might not be a great fit.

And I don’t disagree, at all, that Pruitt needs to hire someone he can trust and put more of the offense in their hands; hopefully that’s part of a lesson he learned in his first year on the job. I’d simply imagine it’s a little harder to do that with someone you haven’t worked with in the past, and that Freeze isn’t the only one who can pull that off.

There’s also certainly a great chance of reward with Freeze, who worked wonders at Ole Miss…but if he’s everything some of us want him to be, how long is he in Knoxville? I get that you can’t hire scared, and it’s a good sign for your program when assistants are being promoted elsewhere. But for the Vols in the midst of a serious rebuild, with a defensive-minded head coach who needs a trustworthy, fruitful relationship with his offensive coordinator? I don’t see many scenarios where Freeze is a long-term answer. How much does it help Tennessee to have Hugh Freeze for one year? I’m not sure that’s what’s best for Tennessee right now, aside from the other red flags.

Regardless of your feelings on Freeze, it would be a different kind of red flag if Pruitt wanted to hire him and was turned down somewhere up the food chain. It might be a wise move for Tennessee administratively, but it’s never a good day at the office when the football coach at Tennessee is prevented from getting what he wants. I don’t know if that’s happening, or if it is how any of us would know for sure. But Pruitt would certainly know.

The Vols have everyone coming back on offense, including proven skill players and a quarterback with potential. Pruitt has a year under his belt that saw the offense play slow and, at times, perhaps limit itself. The offense will almost certainly lead the way in 2019. This is a good job with more than one good option out there. It’s an important hire that will require a lot of trust in a long-term rebuild. We’ll learn a lot by where Pruitt and the Vols ultimately turn. But the real answers are, as always, only available on Saturdays in the fall.