First Look: Projecting the Tennessee Vols’ 2019 defensive…, via The Athletic
Vols learn lesson in boredom in win over Razorbacks, via VolQuest
An early look at Tennessee’s official visitors for this weekend, via VolQuest
From the Archives . . . January 16
On this day back in 2011 . . .
. . . We were getting really tired of having to see the Bruce Pearl Timeline during every broadcast of every Tennessee basketball game, as evidenced by this post:
With the NFL early entrant deadline
having come and gone, we can now take a look at the landscape as it relates to
Tennessee and its 2019 opponents.
The Vols were able to avoid any
significant losses to the NFL. LB Quarte
Sapp, who briefly quit the team midseason before returning and basically not
playing, has decided to leave early.
More importantly, however, WR Jauan Jennings has chosen to return to
Tennessee for his 5th season instead. His return provides a boost both on the
field, where he’ll surely be a starter out wide for Jim Chaney’s new and
improved offense, but also off the field with his leadership and work
ethic.
The Vols have had a few transfers
announced, including 3-4th string QB Will McBride, depth TE Eli
Wolf, and starting OT Drew Richmond. While
Richmond has started a lot of games at Tennessee it’s been on some of the worst
OL’s in the program’s history, so while it wouldn’t have been a bad thing at
least for overall OL depth for him to stay, this does not appear to be a huge
loss. We certainly wish him and the
other transferring Vols the absolute best.
The bottom line is that while there
has to be more attrition from the current roster, Tennessee has avoided losing meaningful
players from the existing roster while at the same time its 2019 recruiting
class is already set to inject a massive talent boost. Further, the coaching staff changes – mainly
the swap of Jum Chaney for Tyson Helton – has been a no-doubt upgrade for the
Vols.
Below we take a look at the to-date attrition for Tennessee’s main 2019 opponents, most of whom have been harder hit than have the Vols.
BYU
While I won’t pretend to have anywhere as much familiarity with
BYU’s roster as those of Tennessee’s counterparts (including the comings and
goings of missionaries, something unique to the BYU program), the Cougars have
suffered a good deal of attrition so far this offseason.
RB Riley Burt, DB Isaiah Armstrong, TE Dallin Hollker, WR Akile
Davis, DL WayneTei-Kirby, LB Christian Folau, DT Tevita
Mounga, and OL Jacob Jimenez have all announced their intentions to transfer.
That’s nearly 10% of the roster, and while most of those players were not
topline contributors, that’s meaningful no matter what. Additionally, Burt in particular is a big
loss, as departing seniors accounted for a third of the total rushing yards for
the team in 2018 and Burt, was a lead contender to fill those shoes after
rushing for 110 yards on 13 carries in BYU’s bowl game.
Finally, OL Coach Ryan Pugh left the program to become the OC at
Troy, so they’ll be starting over at that position too.
BYU should be a win for the Vols in Pruitt’s second season no matter what, and defeating the Cougars in Neyland would likely have the Vols at 3-0 headed to Gainesville. But this kind of attrition can only help Tennessee’s cause.
Florida
I know, I know, we go through this every year. Florida loses players to the NFL and yet
Tennessee cannot seem to – outside of 2016 – beat the d*mn Gators. Regardless, DL Jachai Polite, OL Jawaan
Taylor, RB Jordan Scarlett, S Chauncey Gardner, and LB Vosean Joseph leaving
early for the NFL depletes the Florida roster, and that’s good for
Tennessee. Did the Gators have more
talent than the Vols in 2018? Arguably. But between respective recruiting classes
that have more immediate impact players for Tennessee than UF – even with the
addition of Louisville transfer DL Jon Greenard – and losing five legitimate
NFL talents that weren’t seniors – that gap should be narrowed significantly.
Georgia
Like Alabama, Georgia currently has so much more talent than
Tennessee on its roster that even with massive NFL/transfer losses as well as
significant coaching staff turnover it’s hard to imagine the Vols getting a win
here in 2019. However, those losses are
in fact significant for the Dawgs, especially on offense, as RB Elijah Holyfield,
TE Isaac Nauta, WRs Mecole Hardman and Riley Ridley, TE Luke Ford, and QB
Justin Fields have all departed. On
defense, Georgia has seen DBs Deangelo Gibbs and Tray Bishop leave the program
as well. And finally, Kirby Smart is still
looking to replace DC Mel Tucker after replacing new Tennessee OC Jim Chaney
with an underwhelming inhouse hire.
To reiterate, UGA still has better talent and depth than Tennessee does. However, after these personnel losses that talent gap is meaningfully narrowed in 2019 from just last season. And their coaching staff won’t have as much continuity as it’s had in the past. Both of those things will help the Vols as they try to spring the upset in Neyland in 2019.
MSU
Mississippi States comes to Neyland this season having lost arguably its best overall player, DL Jeffrey Simmon, to early NFL entry. The Bulldogs have also lost backup WR Keith Crouch to transfer, although that’s nowhere near as big of a deal. All in all, despite the expected loss of Simmons State came out ok.
Alabama
See above on Georgia and how Bama still has a massive talent
advantage over the Vols and that no one on here is predicting that despite all
of the talent and coaching being lost Tennessee will beat Alabama in 2019.
That said, the Tide lost seven (!) players to the NFL: OL Jonah
Williams, TE Irv Smith Jr, DL Quinnen Williams, RB Josh Jacobs, DBs Deonte
Thompson and Savion Smith, and LB Mack Wilson.
Additionally they’ve lost QB Jalen Hurts and backup OL Richie Pettibon
to transfer. Finally, they’ve lost
almost the entire offensive staff, starting with OC Mike Locksley and including
OL Coach Brent Key, WR Coach Josh Gattis, and QB Coach Enos. There could also be more coaching attrition,
as specifically DC Tosh Lupoi is rumored to be looking elsewhere.
South Carolina
The Cocks came out relatively unscathed, as they lost nobody to
NFL early entry and only backups DL Shameik Blackshear and DB Javon Charleston
so far to transfer. However, between
homefield advantage and knowing that they should have won in Columbia in 2018 Tennessee
will absolutely be pointing to this game as one to flip from an L to a W in
2019.
Kentucky
The Wildcats only had one early NFL entry in RB Benny Snell, one of the best to ever play in Lexington. That’s a big loss though, and with the Vols increasing their talent advantage over Kentucky with the respective 2019 classes there is no reason to think Tennessee can’t start another streak over the Wildcats in 2019.
Mizzou
The Tigers also did well for themselves when it comes to
attrition, losing only RB Damarea Crockett to early NFL entry. This may, however, speak to the relative lack
of top-end talent in Columbia, but regardless it’s good news for the Tigers as
they look to beat the Vols for the 3rd year in a row in 2019
Vanderbilt
Although the Commodores lost their best defensive player in CB Joejuan
Williams to the NFL draft, they did manage to hang onto two very good offensive
players in RB Keshawn Vaughn and TE Jared Pinkney.
There have been other departures, including S Zaire Jones, RB
Josh Crawford (which leaves them pretty thin at the position behind Vaughn),
and backup OLs Ean Pfeiffer and Jared Southers. Additionally, OC Andy Ludwig has left to take
the same job at Utah, so combined with also losing arguably the best QB in its
history in 4-year starter Kyle Shurmur there will be some rebuilding to do on
that side of that ball. Vandy did add
transfer quarterback Riley Neal, a three-year starter from Ball State, so they
will at the very least have some experience there if not comparable
talent.
The Tennessee Volunteers (15-1, 4-0 SEC) beat the Arkansas Razorbacks 106-87 in Thompson-Boling Arena last night. It was the first time they hit the 100-point mark against an SEC opponent since 2008, and it was the most points they’ve scored on an SEC opponent since 2000, when they beat Georgia, 110-83.
The game was close for a mere five minutes, the point at
which Jordan Bowden – who is hell-bent on stealing the Sixth Man of the Year
Award from defending SMOTY and teammate Lamonte Turner – came into the game.
Bowden wasted no time in stuffing the stat sheet and finished the game nearly
perfect: 6-7 from the field, 5-6 from the arc, and 2-2 from the free throw line
for 19 points. He even smiled at one point.
Not to be outdone, Turner put up a team-high 21 points on a similarly near-perfect night. He went 6-8 from the field, 3-4 from three, and 6-6 from the stripe. So, iron sharpens iron, huh? Who knew?
Meanwhile, the defense held Daniel Gafford to 10 points and
turned the Hogs’ assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.32 heading into the game into a
flat .84.
All of that said, Rick Barnes still wasn’t happy. Because the Hogs outscored his guys 53-51 in the second half. Oh also, because Lamonte Turner made a bad pass.
In all, the bench had to score 31 points in the first half. Notorious slackers Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield had only 18 and 17 points, respectively, and although Williams was 14-14 from the free throw line, he let some sweat drip on the floor, which is totally unacceptable. Someone could slip and poke an eye out, Mr. Williams.
Schofield scored the first 14 points of the second half. Ball hog.
Kyle Alexander had 12 points, but really, he should have had like 20 rebounds and 40 points in putbacks because he’s tall and used to play volleyball.
As a team, the Vols missed four of their 39 free throw
attempts and should be sent immediately to that torturous stair-climber Daymeon
Fishback loves so much.
Tennessee won this game, but they better get their act
together or it’s going to be a long season.
Up next, Alabama at Thompson-Boling on Saturday at 2 p.m.
ET. ESPN2.
Twenty years after quarterbacking @Vol_Football to a national title, @coachtee17 has agreed to return to his alma mater as an assistant coach, sources told ESPN. Contract details and his specific title are still being finalized. He had several other options, some in the SEC.
Martin’s return to Rocky Top is yet another wave of refreshing news for Vols fans. As with the Chaney news a few days ago, there are a lot of reasons to like this hire: He brings even more championship experience and reminds us of better days, he’s an up-and-coming offensive mind and superb recruiter, and his addition to the staff further fuels the momentum gathering in Knoxville.
All the feels
Of course, Tee Martin is associated with many of our most fond memories.
Those were the days, huh?
Coaching acumen
But there is no way in Hades that Jeremy Pruitt is making any hire for the sake of nostalgia. No-sir-eee. (Sorry — had to do it.)
Since his time at Tennessee, Tee Martin has made a name for himself in the coaching ranks as an up-and-comer. After his playing days were over, Martin started coaching in 2006 at Morehouse. If you can tell me where Morehouse is without asking Google, Alexa, or some other computer infiltrating our homes so they can destroy humanity ten years from now, then you’re doing better than me.
After Morehouse, Martin coached high school ball for a couple of years and then started climbing the college ladder, starting with a gig coaching quarterbacks at New Mexico in 2009 and then a two-year stint at Kentucky coaching wide receivers. He was also passing game coordinator for the Wildcats in 2011.
Martin then went out west to coach wide receivers for the USC Trojans. In 2014, he was promoted to passing game coordinator and then served as offensive coordinator and wide receivers coach from 2016 to 2018. USC struggled this past season, and Martin was relieved of his play-calling duties midway through the season. Not sure what happened there, but failure is practically inevitable somewhere along the way for football coaches.
Martin’s name has been batted around the past few weeks as a viable candidate for some high-level positions, including offensive coordinator at Miami, but the Vols, Jeremy Pruitt, and Phillip Fulmer have lured him back to Rocky Top, presumably with a pitch that they are building something special and need another special person like Martin to make it happen.
Recruiting acumen
Much of Martin’s quick rise through the coaching ranks is largely attributable to his reputation as an elite recruiter. He finished second in 247Sports’ coach recruiting rankings in 2014 and 2015, and he finished first in 2016. During those three years, Martin signed 22 4-star players and 11 5-stars. Only three of those 5-star guys were wide receivers, too, so it’s not a position thing with Martin. He just knows how to talk to elite athletes and get them to commit.
It’s almost as easy to get us Tennessee football fans to believe in the next season as it is to get small children to believe in Santa Claus. Wanting to believe makes it easy to believe.
On the other hand, ten consecutive years of disappointment has a way of reducing your want-to. Today, it’s almost as difficult to get Tennessee fans to continue to believe as it is to get 18-year-olds to believe the fat man’s coming down the chimney. Too much disappointment can petrify the softest of hearts.
But you know what? The recent tide of good news has been relentless in chipping away at this old man’s hard heart. Alabama’s defense looked lost in the national championship game without Jeremy Pruitt. Georgia’s football team sulked its way to an embarrassing loss in its bowl game and then lost both of its coordinators, one of them to us. The Vols now have on their sideline the defensive coordinator and the offensive coordinator that went head-to-head in last year’s national championship game. Woo.
The basketball team is rolling, beating Georgia by nearly 50 points and Missouri by nearly 25, and turning a one-possession slugfest against hated rival Florida into an entry on the resume that the new NET rankings will view as a blowout due to the 10-point cap on margin of victory. Woo again.
Football hired Jim Chaney. Woo. Jauan Jennings is foregoing an NFL opportunity to return for his final season. Yee-haw. And now, we’ve hired Tee Martin, who’s not only beloved on Rocky Top but also respected by high school coaches and players all over the south — including the all-important states of Alabama and Georgia — and the west coast to boot. Ahem. Woo.
We fans have become gradually more jaded over the past ten years, and with everything’s that gone wrong, that’s understandable.
But good people just keep coming back to Rocky Top. They must believe in what’s happening here.
And that is a trend genuinely worthy of renewed hope.
The return of Tee Martin to Tennessee to the Tennessee staff
is a big deal both in terms of perception – he’s a former National Championship
winning QB with a street named after him on campus and most recently was the
Offensive Coordinator at Southern Cal – as well as recruiting. Martin is known as an elite recruiter, having
been named the 247Sports Recruiter of the Year in 2016 and consistently ranked
among the Top 20 recruiters in the country.
Between his two-year stint at Kentucky and his most recent seven years
at USC he landed, among others, 11(!) 5-star and 22 4-star recruits for the
Wildcats and Trojans, including 9 non-Cali signees.
Where Martin might immediately help is for 5-star WR George
Pickens from Alabama’s Hoover High School as he likely has at least some ties
there. However, his impact will be much
more immediately felt beginning with the 2020 class, which Tennessee has
already started out extremely strong with the additions of 5-star QB Harrison
Bailey and former Alabama signee and current JUCO DE Jordan Davis.
He has incredibly strong ties all over the
Southeast and specifically in the talent-rich Atlanta area. He’ll also likely be a major asset as well as
in his native Alabama and of course throughout Tennessee, where Pruitt and his
staff have made it clear they are very keen on the 2020 instate class.
Tee got his coaching career started in the Atlanta area high
school ranks, and has deep connections across the Metro area. Tennessee’s existing staff already has strong
ties in Georgia generally – see the 9 of 19 2019 signees being from the Peach
State – and Atlanta specifically, and Vols already have their jewel of the 2020
class in Bailey who is from Marietta HS in suburban Atlanta. However, Tee will take that to another level
as the Vols look to go head to head with the hometown Bulldogs as well as the
likes of Alabama and Clemson for elite talent
Tennessee’s current staff has also made the state of Alabama
a priority, which makes sense given Pruitt’s background as well as that of more
than a few other staffers. Martin, being
from Mobile, has both name recognition and ties in the state and will only
bolster those efforts. Tennessee has
gotten a good number of 2020 Alabama prospects to campus already, and this
effort could also be a factor in what Tennessee decides to do with its final DL
spot in the 2019 class, as current commit Ledarrius Cox is from Mobile.
Acknowledging that Alabama and to a certain extent Auburn are
always going to be extremely
difficult to beat out for homestate kids that they want, the fact that the Tide
has experienced so much turnover on its coaching staff this offseason could
give the Vols yet another edge in this coming cycle as so many AL kids have
seen their Tide recruiters depart. For
example, former Alabama OL coach Brent Key, the new Georgia Tech OC, is a Hewitt-TrussvilleHS
who recruited his alma mater and was directly responsible for two 2019 Alabama signees
and more importantly two 2020 commits (Dazalin Worsham and Malachi Moore) from
the school.
Obviously 2020 is a long way out, as the Vols are still looking to close out their 2019 class with a bang. However, it is going to be a pivotal class for Pruitt as he looks to build on a solid 2018 class and what looks like a very strong 2019 class and take it to another level in 2020. The addition of Martin to a recruiting staff that already features studs like TE Coach Brian Niedermeyer, DC Kevin Sherrer, Safeties Coach Charles Kelly, OL Coach Will Friend, DL Coaches Tracy Rocker and Chris Rumph, as well as the largest support staff in the history of Tennessee football, is a tremendous boost. It shows yet again that Pruitt and AD Phillip Fulmer know what it takes to get the kind of players to Tennessee that the Vols need to get back on top. Further, and maybe more importantly, it shows that they are both willing to do and spend whatever it takes to make that happen.
Tennessee’s quest for #1 takes a backseat this week: #1 Duke and #4 Virginia play Saturday in Durham (6:00 PM ET ESPN), and the winner will almost certainly be ranked ahead of the Vols next Monday. That’s a 1 vs 2 showdown in KenPom; it’s exciting just for a game of that magnitude to be relevant to the Vols. Before we get there, Duke played Syracuse on Monday, and there’s a showdown in the Commonwealth tonight between the Cavaliers and #9 Virginia Tech in Charlottesville. Meanwhile #2 Michigan is off midweek, then travels to Wisconsin (14th KenPom) on Saturday. It’ll be interesting to see how the polls and the bracket matrix shake out after this week.
…and then Duke lost to Syracuse, and lost point guard Tre Jones to a shoulder injury.
So now, if Duke bounces back against Virginia and Michigan falls at Wisconsin? The Vols could get to number one on Monday. Tennessee already had more first-place votes than any other team but Duke. Turns out this isn’t a backseat week after all.
The Vols get the reward of a week in Knoxville after trips to Missouri and Florida last week, and will spend it with more of the bubble. Alabama comes calling Saturday, currently the first team out in the matrix. But first, Arkansas.
Last Year: The Agony & The Ecstasy
Most of Tennessee’s losses last year qualified as frustrating; that’s what happens when you win the SEC. North Carolina in the final minutes, Auburn with their bajillion offensive rebounds, the streak-busting blowout at Alabama, plus narrow defeats at Missouri and Georgia. And then there were painful losses in March: to Kentucky in the SEC Tournament finals, and of course to Sister Jean.
But the one that made me want to punch a wall was Arkansas.
Up nine with 3:53 left, a flurry of foul-outs and turnovers allowed Arkansas to get the game to overtime, where more of the same led to a 95-93 Razorback victory. The loss dropped Tennessee to 9-3, 0-1 to open league play.
The rematch, however, was Tennessee’s best game of the season.
In the SEC Tournament semifinals, the Vols shot 57% from the floor, 11-of-17 (64.7%) from the arc, and 85% from the line. Tennessee buried the Hogs 84-66, an exclamation point on a 16-3 run after starting league play 0-2.
Be careful with this team
Arkansas doesn’t look like a great team on paper at 10-5 (1-2), 55th in KenPom. Their best win is over Indiana, which has lost a little luster with the Hoosiers dropping two straight.
But the five losses? Texas by two in overtime, Western Kentucky by one, Georgia Tech by four, Florida by six, LSU by six in overtime. The Hogs are really close to looking a whole lot better.
What probably makes Arkansas fans want to punch a wall: their free throw shooting. In four of those losses:
Texas: 13-of-24 (54.2%)
Western Kentucky: 9-of-16 (56.3%)
Florida: 15-of-26 (57.7%)
LSU: 17-of-28 (60.7%)
The Hogs are literally a few free throws away from being 14-1.
Their guards really hurt us in the first meeting last year, but this team plays through Daniel Gafford. The 6’11” sophomore had 27 in the win over Indiana and just put 32 on LSU. The weakness here, as you can guess: foul him. Gafford shot 52.8% at the line last year, 58% so far this season. He’s had plenty of experience, ranking 22nd nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes (via KenPom). The alternative: Gafford is 102-of-155 from the field this year, 83rd nationally.
The rest of the lineup is new after those guards – Barford, Beard, and Macon – all graduated. Mason Jones continues the three-point shooting threat, New Mexico transfer Jalen Harris runs the point, and freshmen Isaiah Joe and Reggie Chaney log plenty of minutes.
It’s the Arkansas DNA you know and love – 41st nationally in tempo – with an emphasis on getting to the free throw line beyond just Gafford, despite their poor shooting there. Because the Hogs want to get up and go, they’re susceptible on the offensive glass. But they’ve also been really good at forcing turnovers, as Florida was, and teams are shooting just 29.9% from the arc against them. The free throw numbers are significant, but they don’t really beat themselves otherwise.
Tennessee, as we’ve seen, is playing at an elite level. So we can make this whole argument about the Hogs being a bubble team a few free throws away from the Top 25…and the Vols can still be favored by 15 in KenPom.
7:00 PM, ESPN2. To stay in the number one conversation even when the nation’s eyeballs are elsewhere this week? Keep winning, keep playing well.
We use S&P+ during football season (and KenPom for basketball) a lot on our site. Part of it comes from the 10+ years we spent at SB Nation, where Bill Connelly continues to do great work with advanced statistics. And specific to Tennessee, the longer the Vols struggle, the more I believe it’s important to find good ways to distinguish what’s happening year to year.
S&P+ isn’t the best way to rank teams; I still work for the head-to-head police, still believe Penn State should’ve been in over Ohio State two years ago, etc. But S&P+ is one of the best ways to rate teams. It doesn’t judge wins and losses, but places a value on every play, adjusted for each opponent. You can read all about what goes into it here, but in general it includes five factors:
Success Rate (staying on schedule with five yards on first down, 70% of what’s left on second down, and converting third/fourth downs).
Points Per Play
+ Scoring Opportunities (what you did inside the 40), Field Position, and Turnover Margin
Not only does S&P+ assign value to every snap, it gives a percentile performance for each game and, ultimately, the season. It’s a good way to distinguish between seasons that finish with similar records, and track a coach and program over time.
Football Outsiders has S&P+ data going back to 2005, including offensive and defensive unit rankings. But a couple off-seasons ago, Bill Connelly published an estimated S&P+ rating for teams as far back as 1970 (all of those links can be found here from Football Study Hall).
We pointed out at the time how S&P+ didn’t rate 1998 as Tennessee’s best team of the 90’s, but instead leaned toward Heath Shuler’s 1993 squad. The ’98 Vols won five one-possession games, plus a fourth quarter comeback in the SEC Championship Game. The ’93 Vols lost to Florida by seven and tied Alabama before ultimately stumbling in the Citrus Bowl against Penn State. But they also decimated everyone else, including a 32-point win over #22 Georgia and 35 points over #13 Louisville. Shuler finished second in the Heisman balloting and the team set a school record for points per game that still stands.
Again, it’s not the best way to rank seasons – ’93 in particular struggles in that department because it lacks a signature win – but it is a good way to ask yourself, “Who would we least like to face?” And the 50 years (okay, 49) of estimated percentile performance give us a ton of context for where Tennessee was, is, and could go.
So, using the data from Football Study Hall, here’s every Tennessee team since 1970 in S&P+, from best to worst:
Team
S&P+ Percentile
Record
1970
97.94
11-1
1993
97.20
9-2-1
1997
96.48
11-2
2001
96.48
11-2
1999
96.00
9-3
1998
95.87
13-0
1972
95.82
10-2
1985
95.46
9-1-2
1995
94.71
11-1
2007
93.30
10-4
2006
92.80
9-4
1990
92.15
9-2-2
1989
91.81
11-1
2009
91.20
7-6
1992
90.80
9-3
1996
89.89
10-2
1974
89.47
7-3-2
1994
87.96
8-4
1991
87.90
9-3
1971
87.28
10-2
1984
87.26
7-4-1
2004
83.56
10-3
2003
82.74
10-3
2015
82.50
9-4
1979
82.48
7-5
2014
81.40
7-6
2005
81.10
5-6
1987
80.48
10-2-1
1983
80.07
9-3
2016
77.60
9-4
2000
75.71
8-4
1980
75.44
5-6
2012
73.60
5-7
2011
73.20
5-7
1975
72.88
7-5
2002
71.06
8-5
2013
69.80
5-7
2008
68.80
5-7
1973
62.75
8-4
1986
59.51
7-5
1976
59.28
6-5
1977
56.32
4-7
1982
55.46
6-5-1
1978
55.04
5-5-1
2010
55.00
6-7
1988
47.16
5-6
2018
39.00
5-7
1981
35.63
8-4
2017
17.40
4-8
The first data point is the highest: the 1970 Vols lost to #17 Auburn in week two, but didn’t fall again. They beat #13 Georgia Tech 17-6, then beat Alabama 24-0 and Florida 38-7 in consecutive weeks. LSU lost a pair of non-conference games in 1970 but went undefeated in the SEC; as the Vols and Tigers did not meet, #5 LSU won the SEC and got a shot at #3 Nebraska in the Orange Bowl, with an outside chance at the national championship. The #4 Vols went to the Sugar Bowl and beat #11 Air Force 34-13. The Cornhuskers beat LSU to claim the national championship when #1 Texas and #2 Ohio State both lost their bowl games; had the Vols played Nebraska instead they too would’ve been playing for the title.
Shuler’s ’93 Vols are second on the list, meaning the two highest-rated teams of the last 50 years both had first-year coaches in Bill Battle and Phillip Fulmer. From there, it’s the list you expect: the most memorable seasons from the decade of dominance, Condredge Holloway’s 1972 Vols, and the 1985 Sugar Vols.
In S&P+, the 2017 season is the worst of the last 50 years by a significant margin. The Vols went 4-8, but it was more than that. The Vols were statistically dominated in the win over Georgia Tech. And UT was both non-competitive in five blowout losses, and failed to measure up play-for-play in close losses to Florida, South Carolina, and Kentucky. The S&P+ win expectancy in those three games: 19%, 23%, and 33%, plus just 23% against Georgia Tech.
Only 1981 kept 2018 from making it back-to-back years at the bottom of S&P+. The ’81 Vols are an interesting example of how S&P+ works: Tennessee went 8-4, but the four losses were by 44 to Georgia, 36 to USC, 19 to Alabama, and 11 to Kentucky. Meanwhile the Vols beat Auburn and Georgia Tech by identical 10-7 scores, beat Vanderbilt by four, and survived Wichita State 24-21. Play-for-play, the ’81 Vols were really bad…but they found a way to win every close game. And that team, and the ones to follow, help teach us a good lesson.
The Early 80’s as a Guide?
The records didn’t show straight-line improvement for Johnny Majors from 1981-84: 8-4, 6-5-1, 9-3, 7-4-1. But in S&P+, the Vols were getting stronger every year, laying the groundwork for the SEC title in 1985.
The 2018 Vols are third-worst in S&P+ in the last 50 years…but they were significantly better than their predecessors. It’s easy to make things pass/fail: if the Vols had beaten South Carolina, Missouri, or Vanderbilt to get bowl eligible at 6-6, it would’ve seemed a lot easier to praise Jeremy Pruitt for his year one work. But play-for-play, Tennessee made progress.
You always start with wins and losses, and in the end, you circle back there. But in between, it’s worth valuing every play. And while there’s a long way to go back to the top, Tennessee took a solid first step away from the bottom in 2018.
The Ups and Downs of Any Program
S&P+ puts 2006 and 2007 in a different light too. After an abundance of close wins in 2003 and 2004 (and close losses in 2005), the Vols were far closer to their 90’s neighbors in 2006: one-point loss to the eventual champs, four-point loss to Top 10 LSU, and significant blowouts of Cal and Georgia. The Vols got blown out three times in 2007, but the weight of the ongoing Fulmer conversation probably made us undervalue Tennessee blowing out Georgia and Arkansas in return.
2008 was still the worst year of the Fulmer era; the last ten years may have changed your mind, but in the moment there were certainly reasonable arguments for moving on in wins and losses. But play-for-play, the Vols weren’t far away in the two years before Fulmer was out, and nearly returned to the same form with Fulmer’s players in Lane Kiffin’s one and only year.
Since then, things have trended downhill in a hurry. Even what some may think of as the good Butch Jones years – 2014-2016 – were, both play-for-play and in the end result, several steps behind Tennessee’s best days.
I’m not sure it’s realistic to make the 90’s the definition of success; in the last 50 years that’s the ceiling, but not always where we live. Since 1970 the Vols are better understood as a program capable of hitting those high notes – and its current athletic director hired a coach with that possibility in mind – but also one that has its ups and downs, and is currently in the middle of a historic down. Progress, for Fulmer and Pruitt, looks first like getting the Vols above the thresholds Dooley and Butch reached but could not surpass. At this point, in these ratings, it’s still a steeper climb than either of them faced. But looking for said progress is part of the fun. It’ll always be easier when the Vols are winning close games instead of losing them. But so far for Jeremy Pruitt, progress is there.
Any program is a roller coaster over the course of 50 years. We come back every fall because we love the ride itself, not just the wins. History suggests we’ve never been as low as in the last two years…but history also shows the heights this program can attain. And we’re in the middle of a basketball season showing us you can always go higher.
For the Vols, and for Pruitt, right now it’s simply about going forward.
Surprise blowouts are delightful, but perhaps we forgot how much fun one of these can be too.
Florida was 22nd in overall KenPom and fifth in defensive efficiency. The Vols were favored by only a deuce. And to the finish, the Gators lived up to all of that, even if differently than we thought.
The Gators take a lot of threes…but 22 of them in the first half compared to seven attempts from inside the arc? Not sure I’ve seen that ratio against the Vols before. But…it worked. Florida splashed enough of them for a 38-35 halftime advantage, due in large part to their ability to defend well without fouling. Tennessee had just three tries at the free throw line in the first half, and still finished -7 in attempts to the Gators for the game.
Florida was good defensively…but in the end, just not quite good enough.
Tennessee answered a KeVauhgn Allen three to open the second half with an 8-0 run to take the lead. The Vols pushed the lead to five a couple of times around the ten minute mark, but Florida didn’t fold. With eight minutes to play, a wild sequence saw eight consecutive possessions end with points: each time Florida took the lead first, then the Vols immediately tied it up. And by “the Vols”, I mean Jordan Bowden: 12 straight Tennessee points, capped off with a three, a steal, and a slam to give Tennessee the lead.
The Vols held the lead into the final minute, up two. Points came easiest on this night for Grant Williams, who followed up a 23-point performance against Florida last year with 20 tonight. He got the ball near the top of the key, took a step or two…and found Admiral Schofield in the corner. And if you’re looking for a big shot this year, look no further: a three with three on the shot clock put the Vols up five with 45 seconds to play. A couple free throws and a couple steal-and-scores from there, and we got this:
Again, Florida was good. But “good” simply isn’t enough to beat Tennessee right now.
I feel like we’ve been on the other side of this game plenty of times against a top-five Kentucky or Florida squad: played hard, played well, had our chances, couldn’t finish. If you like that comparison, consider this: the Vols go to +28.60 in KenPom, fourth nationally and, insanely, second nationally in offense. Only two of John Calipari’s Kentucky teams finished a year better than +28.60. One won the title with Anthony Davis, the other was undefeated until it lost in the Final Four. Only two of Billy Donovan’s Florida teams finished a year better than that (KenPom goes back to 2002). One won the title in 2007, the other made the Elite Eight in 2013.
There’s a ton of basketball left to play, and plenty of chances for the Vols to go up or down. But right now, the Vols are playing among or above elite company in both Tennessee and recent SEC history.
A week on the road leads to a week at home: Arkansas on Tuesday, Alabama on Saturday. Kermit Davis and Ole Miss inserting themselves into the SEC title race has done nothing to change the back-ended nature of Tennessee’s schedule: the Vols will finish the season with at LSU, at Ole Miss, vs Kentucky, vs Mississippi State, at Auburn. We get the Cats twice, of course, but otherwise those are the only meetings on the calendar with the rest of that list. Florida returns to Knoxville on February 9.
Long way to go. But so far, lots of fun along the way.
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