Tennessee vs Alabama (and 2008 Tennessee) Preview

So maybe we should start here with these previews: Tennessee is a 15-point favorite over Alabama in KenPom, 16.7 in ESPN’s BPI. That’s the bar this team has set for itself. So we’ll spend a few words here talking about Alabama – 59th in KenPom, next four out in the Bracket Matrix – but right now the Vols are eating bubble teams for breakfast, lunch, and dinner.

It’s tough to find the right comparison for this team. Their SEC contemporaries in year-end KenPom going back are Final Four caliber squads from Florida and Kentucky. But until Tennessee actually achieves that goal, it will continue to feel premature to compare them someone like the Noah/Horford Gators.

And it’s tough to compare them internally, because in many ways right now this feels like the best team in school history. As they’re actively flirting with what the 2008 team did in the regular season by reaching number one, and that squad doesn’t carry an overly-heavy burden of postseason success…maybe that’s a good place to start.

The 2008 vs 2019 Vols

This comparison probably felt a little unfair in preseason, not wanting to burden this team with number one expectations. But at the midway point of the season, it feels incredibly natural.

For our younger viewers, the 2008 Vols brought almost everyone back (minus Dane Bradshaw) from a Sweet 16 squad in 2007. And they carried the same motivation of March heartbreak: less Sister Jean, more Greg Oden.

The 2008 Vols were ranked seventh in the preseason AP poll, a school record broken this year at sixth. A win on Saturday would match 2008’s 16-1 start; those Vols went to Rupp Arena and lost in their 18th game, then won eight in a row to set up the #1 vs #2 showdown with Memphis on February 23.

Bruce Pearl’s non-conference scheduling drifted more toward the high-mid-major gauntlet: the 2008 Vols didn’t play anyone as good as 2019 Kansas or Gonzaga before facing #1 Memphis, but did take down five Top 50 KenPom teams from West Virginia, Western Kentucky, Xavier, Gonzaga, and Ohio State.

The 2008 SEC schedule opened with Ole Miss, surprisingly undefeated. Tennessee won 85-83 on a Tyler Smith bucket at the rim (Pearl in the postgame: “He stuck it up their nose.”) But from there, it gets familiar: Tennessee beat South Carolina by 24, Vanderbilt by 20, then Georgia by 16 after the loss at Rupp. They weren’t all that way: half of Tennessee’s 14 SEC wins in 2008 were of the single digit variety, plus another in the first game of the SEC Tournament.

Honestly, the biggest difference between these two teams right now? Rick Barnes…who, after (in)famously losing to the Vols in 2006 and 2007, beat the 2008 Vols in November by 19 points. Almost no one remembers this game because it took place on the same day as the four overtime win at Kentucky in football to seal the SEC East. The 2008 season also ended with a 19-point loss to Louisville in the Sweet 16, a bad match-up with a ton of length.

…I can’t see the 2019 Vols losing to anyone by 19. And while there are less favorable match-ups…I’m not sure there’s a bad one right now.

In fact, in advanced stats, the only place the 2008 Vols were clearly better is turnovers: Pearl’s team forced a turnover on 24.5% of opponent possessions, 19th nationally. Barnes’ team does so on just 19.1% of opponent possessions, 175th nationally. Everything else is a push, or to the advantage of the current squad.

There’s a long way to go this year. But with a legitimate chance to get to number one this weekend, the Vols could equal their 2008 brethren…and, right now, are playing at a level beyond them in many measurable ways.

On Alabama

But, if you’re looking to come back down to earth…well, that’s what happened last time we played these guys.

Winners of six straight, including the first win at Rupp Arena since 2006, Tennessee rolled into Tuscaloosa 18-5 and in the conversation for the final one seed. Instead, Alabama led by 10 at halftime and dropped the hammer in the second half, winning 78-50. Grant Williams had 16, but the rest of the team went 11-of-46 (23.9%) from the floor.

Collin Sexton is playing for the Cavs these days, but the other two guys who beat up the Vols last year are back: John Petty is now a sophomore averaging 10.9 points per game, and Donta Hall is back for his billionth season at center. Freshman guard Kira Lewis Jr. leads this team in scoring at 14.4 per game; Texas transfer Tevin Mack adds 9.3 points in just 19.8 minutes.

Last Saturday’s 81-80 home loss to Texas A&M tarnished what was looking like a tournament resume for sure. Bama lost to Northeastern in the third game of the year, but has wins over Wichita State, Murray State, Arizona, Liberty, Penn State, and opened SEC play by beating Kentucky. The loss at LSU is nothing to hang one’s head about, as the Tigers are now 30th in KenPom. Last time out they won at Missouri by 10.

The Tide are great on the glass: 44th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, 39th in defensive rebounding percentage. It’s a big turnaround when your last opponent was Arkansas. Donta Hall is again a beast here on both ends of the floor, though this year’s version of Tennessee shouldn’t eat seven blocked shots like last year. And in the same physical fashion, Bama excels at getting to the line: 18th nationally in free throw rate, though they shoot only 69.3% once there. Defensively they don’t try to force a lot of steals or turnovers, relying more on solid defense and eliminating second chances.

They already beat Kentucky, so arguments to use talent to simply blow past them aren’t as strong here. You also have to go back to Cuonzo Martin’s last year to find a really good performance against these guys, a 76-59 win in Tuscaloosa. Donnie Tyndall’s Vols lost 56-38, and Barnes would be 0-3 against the Tide if not for second half heroics from Lew Evans in the 2017 regular season finale, a game in which the Vols trailed by 16 points.

Tennessee famously hadn’t played well against Georgia under Barnes, then annihilated them a couple weeks ago. But this Bama team is a lot better than Georgia…which leads us back to the same place in these previews, where I find myself saying, “We should be careful with this team…” while acknowledging the Vols are 15-point favorites.

#2 Michigan travels to Wisconsin at noon (ESPN), so we’ll know in part what we’re getting into when our game tips off at 2:00 PM (ESPN2). Wins by Wisconsin, Duke over Virginia (6:00 PM ESPN), and, of course, Tennessee should get the Vols to number one. There’s a lot to play for, a lot to be excited about…and plenty to be cautious about. We owe this team a beat down.

Beat Bama.

Worth reading 1.17.19: What it’s like to play for Jim Chaney

If you read only one thing about the Vols today . . .

. . . make it this, from The Athletic:

Yes, it’s behind a paywall, but it’s the thing most worth your time today.

Other Vols stuff worth reading today

  1. Tennessee picks up a couple of crystal ball predictions for Henry To’oto’o in light of the departure of Alabama DC Tosh Lupoi , via 247Sports
  2. Four-star Alabama commit Khris Bogle reacts to Tosh Lupoi news, via 247Sports
  3. Report: Vols assistant [Charles Kelly] has coordinator offer from Maryland, via 247Sports. Also, Tee Martin is reportedly already on the road recruiting.
  4. Newcomer Profile: Solomon should be worth the wait for Vols, via 247Sports
  5. Phillip Fulmer seen coaching offensive linemen at UT Vols football practice, via KnoxNews. Minor violations, but the Knoxville News Sentinel appears conditioned to attack when it comes to The Papa.

Best of luck to TK.

Behind the paywalls

  • Five-star OL [Darnell Wright] gets another visit from Vols’ coaches, via 247Sports

From the archives

  • 2010: Kiffin cut off retreat for everyone but himself, via Joel at Rocky Top Talk. Written not in the heat of the moment but after time to consider it, this is what I think was the reason we were justified in being upset the night Kiffin left.
  • 2018: Barnes, Bruce, and Cuonzo: The Real Thing, via Will Gameday on Rocky Top. It is possible to love all of these guys.

Worth reading 1.16.19: A little extra woo on Rocky Top

If you read only one thing about the Vols today . . .

. . . make it this, from 247Sports:

Other Vols stuff worth reading today

  1. Relative to 2019 Opponents, Vols Big Winners as NFL Early Entry Period Closes, via Gameday on Rocky Top
  2. The five toughest games on Tennessee’s 2019 schedule, via 247Sports
  3. Transfer Portal: Tracking players exploring transfer options, via 247Sports
  4. Tee Martin’s circuitous path comes full circle in return to Vols, via 247Sports
  5. Tennessee 106, Arkansas 87: Vols better get it together, via Gameday on Rocky Top

Behind the paywalls

  • First Look: Projecting the Tennessee Vols’ 2019 defensive…, via The Athletic
  • Vols learn lesson in boredom in win over Razorbacks, via VolQuest
  • An early look at Tennessee’s official visitors for this weekend, via VolQuest

From the Archives . . . January 16

On this day back in 2011 . . .

. . . We were getting really tired of having to see the Bruce Pearl Timeline during every broadcast of every Tennessee basketball game, as evidenced by this post:

Relative to 2019 Opponents, Vols Big Winners as NFL Early Entry Period Closes

With the NFL early entrant deadline having come and gone, we can now take a look at the landscape as it relates to Tennessee and its 2019 opponents. 

The Vols were able to avoid any significant losses to the NFL.  LB Quarte Sapp, who briefly quit the team midseason before returning and basically not playing, has decided to leave early.  More importantly, however, WR Jauan Jennings has chosen to return to Tennessee for his 5th season instead.  His return provides a boost both on the field, where he’ll surely be a starter out wide for Jim Chaney’s new and improved offense, but also off the field with his leadership and work ethic. 

The Vols have had a few transfers announced, including 3-4th string QB Will McBride, depth TE Eli Wolf, and starting OT Drew Richmond.  While Richmond has started a lot of games at Tennessee it’s been on some of the worst OL’s in the program’s history, so while it wouldn’t have been a bad thing at least for overall OL depth for him to stay, this does not appear to be a huge loss.  We certainly wish him and the other transferring Vols the absolute best.

The bottom line is that while there has to be more attrition from the current roster, Tennessee has avoided losing meaningful players from the existing roster while at the same time its 2019 recruiting class is already set to inject a massive talent boost.  Further, the coaching staff changes – mainly the swap of Jum Chaney for Tyson Helton – has been a no-doubt upgrade for the Vols. 

Below we take a look at the to-date attrition for Tennessee’s main 2019 opponents, most of whom have been harder hit than have the Vols.

BYU

While I won’t pretend to have anywhere as much familiarity with BYU’s roster as those of Tennessee’s counterparts (including the comings and goings of missionaries, something unique to the BYU program), the Cougars have suffered a good deal of attrition so far this offseason. 

RB Riley Burt, DB Isaiah Armstrong, TE Dallin Hollker, WR Akile Davis, DL WayneTei-Kirby, LB Christian Folau, DT Tevita Mounga, and OL Jacob Jimenez have all announced their intentions to transfer. That’s nearly 10% of the roster, and while most of those players were not topline contributors, that’s meaningful no matter what.  Additionally, Burt in particular is a big loss, as departing seniors accounted for a third of the total rushing yards for the team in 2018 and Burt, was a lead contender to fill those shoes after rushing for 110 yards on 13 carries in BYU’s bowl game. 

Finally, OL Coach Ryan Pugh left the program to become the OC at Troy, so they’ll be starting over at that position too. 

BYU should be a win for the Vols in Pruitt’s second season no matter what, and defeating the Cougars in Neyland would likely have the Vols at 3-0 headed to Gainesville.  But this kind of attrition can only help Tennessee’s cause.

Florida

I know, I know, we go through this every year.  Florida loses players to the NFL and yet Tennessee cannot seem to – outside of 2016 – beat the d*mn Gators.  Regardless, DL Jachai Polite, OL Jawaan Taylor, RB Jordan Scarlett, S Chauncey Gardner, and LB Vosean Joseph leaving early for the NFL depletes the Florida roster, and that’s good for Tennessee.  Did the Gators have more talent than the Vols in 2018?  Arguably.  But between respective recruiting classes that have more immediate impact players for Tennessee than UF – even with the addition of Louisville transfer DL Jon Greenard – and losing five legitimate NFL talents that weren’t seniors – that gap should be narrowed significantly.

Georgia

Like Alabama, Georgia currently has so much more talent than Tennessee on its roster that even with massive NFL/transfer losses as well as significant coaching staff turnover it’s hard to imagine the Vols getting a win here in 2019.  However, those losses are in fact significant for the Dawgs, especially on offense, as RB Elijah Holyfield, TE Isaac Nauta, WRs Mecole Hardman and Riley Ridley, TE Luke Ford, and QB Justin Fields have all departed.  On defense, Georgia has seen DBs Deangelo Gibbs and Tray Bishop leave the program as well.  And finally, Kirby Smart is still looking to replace DC Mel Tucker after replacing new Tennessee OC Jim Chaney with an underwhelming inhouse hire. 

To reiterate, UGA still has better talent and depth than Tennessee does.  However, after these personnel losses that talent gap is meaningfully narrowed in 2019 from just last season.  And their coaching staff won’t have as much continuity as it’s had in the past.  Both of those things will help the Vols as they try to spring the upset in Neyland in 2019.

MSU

Mississippi States comes to Neyland this season having lost arguably its best overall player, DL Jeffrey Simmon, to early NFL entry.  The Bulldogs have also lost backup WR Keith Crouch to transfer, although that’s nowhere near as big of a deal.  All in all, despite the expected loss of Simmons State came out ok.

Alabama

See above on Georgia and how Bama still has a massive talent advantage over the Vols and that no one on here is predicting that despite all of the talent and coaching being lost Tennessee will beat Alabama in 2019. 

That said, the Tide lost seven (!) players to the NFL: OL Jonah Williams, TE Irv Smith Jr, DL Quinnen Williams, RB Josh Jacobs, DBs Deonte Thompson and Savion Smith, and LB Mack Wilson.  Additionally they’ve lost QB Jalen Hurts and backup OL Richie Pettibon to transfer.  Finally, they’ve lost almost the entire offensive staff, starting with OC Mike Locksley and including OL Coach Brent Key, WR Coach Josh Gattis, and QB Coach Enos.  There could also be more coaching attrition, as specifically DC Tosh Lupoi is rumored to be looking elsewhere.

South Carolina 

The Cocks came out relatively unscathed, as they lost nobody to NFL early entry and only backups DL Shameik Blackshear and DB Javon Charleston so far to transfer.  However, between homefield advantage and knowing that they should have won in Columbia in 2018 Tennessee will absolutely be pointing to this game as one to flip from an L to a W in 2019.

Kentucky

The Wildcats only had one early NFL entry in RB Benny Snell, one of the best to ever play in Lexington.  That’s a big loss though, and with the Vols increasing their talent advantage over Kentucky with the respective 2019 classes there is no reason to think Tennessee can’t start another streak over the Wildcats in 2019.

Mizzou

The Tigers also did well for themselves when it comes to attrition, losing only RB Damarea Crockett to early NFL entry.  This may, however, speak to the relative lack of top-end talent in Columbia, but regardless it’s good news for the Tigers as they look to beat the Vols for the 3rd year in a row in 2019

Vanderbilt

Although the Commodores lost their best defensive player in CB Joejuan Williams to the NFL draft, they did manage to hang onto two very good offensive players in RB Keshawn Vaughn and TE Jared Pinkney. 

There have been other departures, including S Zaire Jones, RB Josh Crawford (which leaves them pretty thin at the position behind Vaughn), and backup OLs Ean Pfeiffer and Jared Southers.  Additionally, OC Andy Ludwig has left to take the same job at Utah, so combined with also losing arguably the best QB in its history in 4-year starter Kyle Shurmur there will be some rebuilding to do on that side of that ball.  Vandy did add transfer quarterback Riley Neal, a three-year starter from Ball State, so they will at the very least have some experience there if not comparable talent. 

Tennessee 106, Arkansas 87: Vols better get it together

The Tennessee Volunteers (15-1, 4-0 SEC) beat the Arkansas Razorbacks 106-87 in Thompson-Boling Arena last night. It was the first time they hit the 100-point mark against an SEC opponent since 2008, and it was the most points they’ve scored on an SEC opponent since 2000, when they beat Georgia, 110-83.

The game was close for a mere five minutes, the point at which Jordan Bowden – who is hell-bent on stealing the Sixth Man of the Year Award from defending SMOTY and teammate Lamonte Turner – came into the game. Bowden wasted no time in stuffing the stat sheet and finished the game nearly perfect: 6-7 from the field, 5-6 from the arc, and 2-2 from the free throw line for 19 points. He even smiled at one point.

Not to be outdone, Turner put up a team-high 21 points on a similarly near-perfect night. He went 6-8 from the field, 3-4 from three, and 6-6 from the stripe. So, iron sharpens iron, huh? Who knew?

Meanwhile, the defense held Daniel Gafford to 10 points and turned the Hogs’ assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.32 heading into the game into a flat .84.

All of that said, Rick Barnes still wasn’t happy. Because the Hogs outscored his guys 53-51 in the second half. Oh also, because Lamonte Turner made a bad pass.

In all, the bench had to score 31 points in the first half. Notorious slackers Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield had only 18 and 17 points, respectively, and although Williams was 14-14 from the free throw line, he let some sweat drip on the floor, which is totally unacceptable. Someone could slip and poke an eye out, Mr. Williams.

Schofield scored the first 14 points of the second half. Ball hog.

Kyle Alexander had 12 points, but really, he should have had like 20 rebounds and 40 points in putbacks because he’s tall and used to play volleyball.

As a team, the Vols missed four of their 39 free throw attempts and should be sent immediately to that torturous stair-climber Daymeon Fishback loves so much.

Tennessee won this game, but they better get their act together or it’s going to be a long season.

Up next, Alabama at Thompson-Boling on Saturday at 2 p.m. ET. ESPN2.

Tennessee Football hires Tee Martin

Tee Martin’s coming home.

Martin’s return to Rocky Top is yet another wave of refreshing news for Vols fans. As with the Chaney news a few days ago, there are a lot of reasons to like this hire: He brings even more championship experience and reminds us of better days, he’s an up-and-coming offensive mind and superb recruiter, and his addition to the staff further fuels the momentum gathering in Knoxville.

All the feels

Of course, Tee Martin is associated with many of our most fond memories.

Those were the days, huh?

Coaching acumen

But there is no way in Hades that Jeremy Pruitt is making any hire for the sake of nostalgia. No-sir-eee. (Sorry — had to do it.)

Since his time at Tennessee, Tee Martin has made a name for himself in the coaching ranks as an up-and-comer. After his playing days were over, Martin started coaching in 2006 at Morehouse. If you can tell me where Morehouse is without asking Google, Alexa, or some other computer infiltrating our homes so they can destroy humanity ten years from now, then you’re doing better than me.

After Morehouse, Martin coached high school ball for a couple of years and then started climbing the college ladder, starting with a gig coaching quarterbacks at New Mexico in 2009 and then a two-year stint at Kentucky coaching wide receivers. He was also passing game coordinator for the Wildcats in 2011.

Martin then went out west to coach wide receivers for the USC Trojans. In 2014, he was promoted to passing game coordinator and then served as offensive coordinator and wide receivers coach from 2016 to 2018. USC struggled this past season, and Martin was relieved of his play-calling duties midway through the season. Not sure what happened there, but failure is practically inevitable somewhere along the way for football coaches.

Martin’s name has been batted around the past few weeks as a viable candidate for some high-level positions, including offensive coordinator at Miami, but the Vols, Jeremy Pruitt, and Phillip Fulmer have lured him back to Rocky Top, presumably with a pitch that they are building something special and need another special person like Martin to make it happen.

Recruiting acumen

Much of Martin’s quick rise through the coaching ranks is largely attributable to his reputation as an elite recruiter. He finished second in 247Sports’ coach recruiting rankings in 2014 and 2015, and he finished first in 2016. During those three years, Martin signed 22 4-star players and 11 5-stars. Only three of those 5-star guys were wide receivers, too, so it’s not a position thing with Martin. He just knows how to talk to elite athletes and get them to commit.

For more on Martin’s impact on Tennessee recruiting, check out this post from DylanVol.

The rush of momentum

It’s almost as easy to get us Tennessee football fans to believe in the next season as it is to get small children to believe in Santa Claus. Wanting to believe makes it easy to believe.

On the other hand, ten consecutive years of disappointment has a way of reducing your want-to. Today, it’s almost as difficult to get Tennessee fans to continue to believe as it is to get 18-year-olds to believe the fat man’s coming down the chimney. Too much disappointment can petrify the softest of hearts.

But you know what? The recent tide of good news has been relentless in chipping away at this old man’s hard heart. Alabama’s defense looked lost in the national championship game without Jeremy Pruitt. Georgia’s football team sulked its way to an embarrassing loss in its bowl game and then lost both of its coordinators, one of them to us. The Vols now have on their sideline the defensive coordinator and the offensive coordinator that went head-to-head in last year’s national championship game. Woo.

The basketball team is rolling, beating Georgia by nearly 50 points and Missouri by nearly 25, and turning a one-possession slugfest against hated rival Florida into an entry on the resume that the new NET rankings will view as a blowout due to the 10-point cap on margin of victory. Woo again.

Football hired Jim Chaney. Woo. Jauan Jennings is foregoing an NFL opportunity to return for his final season. Yee-haw. And now, we’ve hired Tee Martin, who’s not only beloved on Rocky Top but also respected by high school coaches and players all over the south — including the all-important states of Alabama and Georgia — and the west coast to boot. Ahem. Woo.

We fans have become gradually more jaded over the past ten years, and with everything’s that gone wrong, that’s understandable.

But good people just keep coming back to Rocky Top. They must believe in what’s happening here.

And that is a trend genuinely worthy of renewed hope.

Tee Martin’s Instant Recruiting Impact

The return of Tee Martin to Tennessee to the Tennessee staff is a big deal both in terms of perception – he’s a former National Championship winning QB with a street named after him on campus and most recently was the Offensive Coordinator at Southern Cal – as well as recruiting.  Martin is known as an elite recruiter, having been named the 247Sports Recruiter of the Year in 2016 and consistently ranked among the Top 20 recruiters in the country.  Between his two-year stint at Kentucky and his most recent seven years at USC he landed, among others, 11(!) 5-star and 22 4-star recruits for the Wildcats and Trojans, including 9 non-Cali signees. 

Where Martin might immediately help is for 5-star WR George Pickens from Alabama’s Hoover High School as he likely has at least some ties there.  However, his impact will be much more immediately felt beginning with the 2020 class, which Tennessee has already started out extremely strong with the additions of 5-star QB Harrison Bailey and former Alabama signee and current JUCO DE Jordan Davis. He has incredibly strong ties all over the Southeast and specifically in the talent-rich Atlanta area.  He’ll also likely be a major asset as well as in his native Alabama and of course throughout Tennessee, where Pruitt and his staff have made it clear they are very keen on the 2020 instate class.

Tee got his coaching career started in the Atlanta area high school ranks, and has deep connections across the Metro area.  Tennessee’s existing staff already has strong ties in Georgia generally – see the 9 of 19 2019 signees being from the Peach State – and Atlanta specifically, and Vols already have their jewel of the 2020 class in Bailey who is from Marietta HS in suburban Atlanta.  However, Tee will take that to another level as the Vols look to go head to head with the hometown Bulldogs as well as the likes of Alabama and Clemson for elite talent

RB Tank Bigsby

RB Jo’Quavous Marks

RB Mecose Todd

WR Javon Baker (Bama commit)

WR Ze’vian Capers

WR Kobe Stewart

TE Arik Gilbert

OL Quatavious Leslie

OLB BJ Ojulari

DL Andy Boykin

DL Nazir Stackhouse (UGA commit)

OLB Zakevious Walker

OLB Phillip Webb

LB Kevin Swint

S Rashad Torrence (UF commit)

CB Jalen Huff (OU commit)

CB Javier Morton (Bama commit)

Current 2020 Tennessee targets in Alabama

Tennessee’s current staff has also made the state of Alabama a priority, which makes sense given Pruitt’s background as well as that of more than a few other staffers.  Martin, being from Mobile, has both name recognition and ties in the state and will only bolster those efforts.  Tennessee has gotten a good number of 2020 Alabama prospects to campus already, and this effort could also be a factor in what Tennessee decides to do with its final DL spot in the 2019 class, as current commit Ledarrius Cox is from Mobile.

Acknowledging that Alabama and to a certain extent Auburn are always going to be extremely difficult to beat out for homestate kids that they want, the fact that the Tide has experienced so much turnover on its coaching staff this offseason could give the Vols yet another edge in this coming cycle as so many AL kids have seen their Tide recruiters depart.  For example, former Alabama OL coach Brent Key, the new Georgia Tech OC, is a Hewitt-TrussvilleHS who recruited his alma mater and was directly responsible for two 2019 Alabama signees and more importantly two 2020 commits (Dazalin Worsham and Malachi Moore) from the school. 

ATH Jordan Ingram

ATH Kristian Story (former UT commit)

WR Dazalin Worsham (Bama commit)

WR Eddie Williams

WR JJ Evans

DL Eric Taylor

DL Jah-Marien Latham (Bama commit)

CB Malachi Moore (Bama commit)

Obviously 2020 is a long way out, as the Vols are still looking to close out their 2019 class with a bang.  However, it is going to be a pivotal class for Pruitt as he looks to build on a solid 2018 class and what looks like a very strong 2019 class and take it to another level in 2020.  The addition of Martin to a recruiting staff that already features studs like TE Coach Brian Niedermeyer, DC Kevin Sherrer, Safeties Coach Charles Kelly, OL Coach Will Friend, DL Coaches Tracy Rocker and Chris Rumph, as well as the largest support staff in the history of Tennessee football, is a tremendous boost.  It shows yet again that Pruitt and AD Phillip Fulmer know what it takes to get the kind of players to Tennessee that the Vols need to get back on top.  Further, and maybe more importantly, it shows that they are both willing to do and spend whatever it takes to make that happen. 

Tennessee vs Arkansas Preview

Here’s what I wrote Monday afternoon:

Tennessee’s quest for #1 takes a backseat this week: #1 Duke and #4 Virginia play Saturday in Durham (6:00 PM ET ESPN), and the winner will almost certainly be ranked ahead of the Vols next Monday. That’s a 1 vs 2 showdown in KenPom; it’s exciting just for a game of that magnitude to be relevant to the Vols. Before we get there, Duke played Syracuse on Monday, and there’s a showdown in the Commonwealth tonight between the Cavaliers and #9 Virginia Tech in Charlottesville. Meanwhile #2 Michigan is off midweek, then travels to Wisconsin (14th KenPom) on Saturday. It’ll be interesting to see how the polls and the bracket matrix shake out after this week.

…and then Duke lost to Syracuse, and lost point guard Tre Jones to a shoulder injury.

So now, if Duke bounces back against Virginia and Michigan falls at Wisconsin? The Vols could get to number one on Monday. Tennessee already had more first-place votes than any other team but Duke. Turns out this isn’t a backseat week after all.

The Vols get the reward of a week in Knoxville after trips to Missouri and Florida last week, and will spend it with more of the bubble. Alabama comes calling Saturday, currently the first team out in the matrix. But first, Arkansas.

Last Year: The Agony & The Ecstasy

Most of Tennessee’s losses last year qualified as frustrating; that’s what happens when you win the SEC. North Carolina in the final minutes, Auburn with their bajillion offensive rebounds, the streak-busting blowout at Alabama, plus narrow defeats at Missouri and Georgia. And then there were painful losses in March: to Kentucky in the SEC Tournament finals, and of course to Sister Jean.

But the one that made me want to punch a wall was Arkansas.

Up nine with 3:53 left, a flurry of foul-outs and turnovers allowed Arkansas to get the game to overtime, where more of the same led to a 95-93 Razorback victory. The loss dropped Tennessee to 9-3, 0-1 to open league play.

The rematch, however, was Tennessee’s best game of the season.

In the SEC Tournament semifinals, the Vols shot 57% from the floor, 11-of-17 (64.7%) from the arc, and 85% from the line. Tennessee buried the Hogs 84-66, an exclamation point on a 16-3 run after starting league play 0-2.

Be careful with this team

Arkansas doesn’t look like a great team on paper at 10-5 (1-2), 55th in KenPom. Their best win is over Indiana, which has lost a little luster with the Hoosiers dropping two straight.

But the five losses? Texas by two in overtime, Western Kentucky by one, Georgia Tech by four, Florida by six, LSU by six in overtime. The Hogs are really close to looking a whole lot better.

What probably makes Arkansas fans want to punch a wall: their free throw shooting. In four of those losses:

  • Texas: 13-of-24 (54.2%)
  • Western Kentucky: 9-of-16 (56.3%)
  • Florida: 15-of-26 (57.7%)
  • LSU: 17-of-28 (60.7%)

The Hogs are literally a few free throws away from being 14-1.

Their guards really hurt us in the first meeting last year, but this team plays through Daniel Gafford. The 6’11” sophomore had 27 in the win over Indiana and just put 32 on LSU. The weakness here, as you can guess: foul him. Gafford shot 52.8% at the line last year, 58% so far this season. He’s had plenty of experience, ranking 22nd nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes (via KenPom). The alternative: Gafford is 102-of-155 from the field this year, 83rd nationally.

The rest of the lineup is new after those guards – Barford, Beard, and Macon – all graduated. Mason Jones continues the three-point shooting threat, New Mexico transfer Jalen Harris runs the point, and freshmen Isaiah Joe and Reggie Chaney log plenty of minutes.

It’s the Arkansas DNA you know and love – 41st nationally in tempo – with an emphasis on getting to the free throw line beyond just Gafford, despite their poor shooting there. Because the Hogs want to get up and go, they’re susceptible on the offensive glass. But they’ve also been really good at forcing turnovers, as Florida was, and teams are shooting just 29.9% from the arc against them. The free throw numbers are significant, but they don’t really beat themselves otherwise.

Tennessee, as we’ve seen, is playing at an elite level. So we can make this whole argument about the Hogs being a bubble team a few free throws away from the Top 25…and the Vols can still be favored by 15 in KenPom.

7:00 PM, ESPN2. To stay in the number one conversation even when the nation’s eyeballs are elsewhere this week? Keep winning, keep playing well.

Go Vols.