Vols Recruiting: Almost There

Some thoughts headed into the penultimate weekend before the February Signing Day

Pruitt Learning Danger of Reaching

As the final two weeks before the February National Signing Day wind down, Tennessee and its fans find themselves in a situation they have never been in before.  After signing 19 players in December and then adding two high profile transfers in former 5-stars DL Aubrey Solomon from Michigan and ATH Deangelo Gibbs from UGA, Tennessee finds itself with very few spots to fill and (fortunately) in great shape for some outstanding players.  OL Darnell Wright and LBs Henry To’oto’to and Chris Russell all look to be greater than 50/50 shots for the Vols and without a doubt having a spot reserved for them in Knoxville.  Those are without a doubt the top choices for Tennessee.

This is a much different position than Coach Jeremy Pruitt and Co. were in at this time last year, as the new staff scrambled to fill its initial class.  In the end, Tennessee signed a handful of potential impact players like LB JJ Peterson, DL John Mincey and Kurrott Garland, and S Treveon Flowers.  However, after swinging and missing on multiple 5-stars like two California-based DBs that signed with Southern Cal as well as LB Quay Walker (UGA), Tennessee frankly reached for a handful of late signees in DB Kenneth George and WR Cedric Tillman and then grad transfers RB Madre London and QB Keller Chryst.  Tillman in particular at least has the measurables to project as an SEC-level contributor at WR, and one could make a case that Chryst was needed given the lack of depth behind Jarrett Guarantano.  And let’s be clear, especially in this case hindsight is 20/20, as Guarantano ended up having a good year and stayed healthy enough to where Chryst’s appearances could 100% have been taken by Will McBride without making a difference in a single win or loss in 2018 for Tennessee. 

However, because of these personnel decisions – and including the later addition of CB Bryce Thompson to the 2018 class and then the two new transfers Solomon and Gibbs, all no-brainers and potential program changers – Pruitt and Tennessee find themselves likely unable to take some really good players that would like to be Vols:

Memphis DL Kristian Williams in particular is pretty obviously waiting on the green light from Tennessee, and though he has some good alternatives he seems likely to wait until Signing Day before inking with anyone else.

For however Tennessee feels about current DL commitment Leddarrius Cox – and while that’s unclear the real interest from Auburn and Ole Miss shows he’s at least an SEC-level DL – he would like to sign with Tennessee.

Then there’s DB Jammie Robinson, who at worst has Tennessee in the mix with Auburn, South Carolina and Kentucky but absolutely could potentially choose Tennessee as his leader pending scholarship availability.

Even 5-star WR George Pickens, an Auburn commitment who’s still looking around, might not be getting the full-court press from Tennessee that he otherwise would given the lack of spots and the potential that he might not qualify.  That remains to be seen of course as he is so damn good.

And finally there’s South Carolina JUCO DL commitment Jahkeem Green (more on him below) who also has some grade concerns but is likely a plug-and-play DL for either Tennessee or South Carolina should he get into school.  Volquest.com broke the news that he’ll be OV’ig in Knoxville this weekend, but again with the lack of room it’s to be determined how hard Tennessee can really push.  That said, there is some real fear from the Carolina side here.

The good news is that the 2019 class will feature exactly zero reaches, and there isn’t one signee or transfer who you’d definitively trade out for one of the guys left on the board not named Wright/To’oto’to/Russell. It’s quite simply a very good-to-outstanding class that massively upgrades the talent and depth across the 2019 roster as compared to a year ago.  Further, should Tennessee end up being able to monkey with the numbers in order to fit more than three signees into this class, the other good news is that the players above are absolutely high quality players that no one will be looking back at in January 2020 lamenting Tennessee taking them.

Similarly, as we first floated a month ago, it seems like the potential for Anthony Harris blueshirting – should he qualify – is very likely. Harris is a bonafide stud while he could play on either side of the ball as a S or a WR the electric athlete has the kind of size and ball skills that Pruitt covets in the secondary. Were the Vols to go that route with Harris and add him to the 2020 class numbers along with Solomon and likely anyone else they add past three more signees, they’d simply be adding another bigtime player to the roster, in stark contrast to reaching for warm bodies.

Pruitt playing chess while Muschamp plays checkers

With the news that Tennessee is bringing in the aforementioned JUCO DL Green, this is yet another prospect for whom Pruitt is playing games with South Carolina coach Will Muschamp.  First Pruitt snuck in and stole future All-SEC CB Bryce Thompson out from under Muschamp’s nose.  Then, in this cycle Pruitt offered ATH Xavier Leggette, who South Carolina was hoping to blueshirt but was forced to sign in December for fear of Tennessee taking him.  Finally, with Green, Carolina was hoping that his longtime commitment would keep others from offering him while they figure out his academic situation and potentially sign someone else with that 2018 spot.  However, Pruitt could once again – at worst – be forcing Mushcamp’s hand.  At best, because Green is an outstanding JUCO DL with the ability to play at a high level right away in the SEC, Tennessee can use this fact, along with the recent departure of Carolina DL Coach Lance Thompson and the Vols longtime interest (they offered last summer), Tennessee can figure out the numbers enough to sign him and get him into school.

Thoughts on Chris Russell

There’s been lots of speculation about Dyersburg, TN LB Chris Russell, for whom Tennessee entered the picture late relative to Arkansas and who also took an OV to Texas A&M last weekend.  The wildest of that speculation is that some think he’s a lock to Arkansas and that Tennessee is in 3rd.  I don’t buy it for a second.  Here’s why:

Parents like Tennessee: Check

Lives in a very pro-Tennessee town: Check

Vol staff not taking him for granted and working him very hard: Check

Final OV: Check

Easy path to early playing time: Check

While I understand why Arkansas in particular is a factor here, as they boast a well-respected DC in John Chavis and have also been recruiting him longer than just about anyone, I’m willing to predict that – unless Russell commits to Arkansas this weekend and cancels his OV to Tennessee for the following (and final) weekend – he signs with the Vols. 

Tennessee vs West Virginia Preview

After three consecutive wins for the Big 12 from 2014-16 (and I’m sure a sense of, “Why are we doing this?” from their league), the SEC forged a tie in 2017 and won this event 6-4 last season. The bad news: three of the SEC’s six ranked teams – #16 Auburn, #22 Mississippi State, and red-hot #25 LSU – will not participate this year. For reasons beyond me, former Big 12 member Missouri has sat out four years in a row.

The Vols sat out the first year in 2014, but are 3-1 since then: wins over Kansas State in Knoxville for Donnie Tyndall in 2015 and Rick Barnes in 2017, a loss at TCU in Barnes’ first year, and a beat down of Iowa State in Ames last season. Those teams aren’t the names you get excited about playing in this thing. We thought this year would change that…but West Virginia hasn’t exactly held up their end of the bargain.

But first, let’s talk about Tennessee’s defense.

Good Isn’t Good Enough When You’re #1

If we’re trying to win the whole thing, which I’m pretty sure we are when atop the polls, I keep coming back to something I first saw on Villanova’s SB Nation blog last February: with the exception of 7-seed champion UConn in 2014, every national champion in the KenPom era (2002-present) has finished the year in the Top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Tennessee flirted with this for much of last season, ultimately finishing sixth in defense and 36th in offense. And the Vols were there for much of the early portion of this season, but are currently second in offense and 34th in defense.

The change on the offensive end has been tremendous, was so before Grant Williams scored 43 the other night, and continues to deserve press and praise. Anyone who says they envisioned Tennessee turning into that kind of offensive threat while shooting 35.7% from the arc is a liar.

It seems strange to type, “Why has the defense gotten worse?” After all, it’s hard to think in terms of “worse” when you’re still 34th nationally in defensive efficiency and 30th in effective field goal percentage allowed. But what is most notably different right now?

  • Three-Point Shooting: throw out Georgia’s 1-for-20 performance in the league opener; the other five conference games rank in the top seven in percentage allowed beyond the arc. The other two are then-#1 Gonzaga and now-#23 Louisville. Vanderbilt’s 47.6% was a season-high, but it doesn’t stand alone: put the Commodores in there with Missouri, Florida, Arkansas, and Alabama, and the Vols have allowed 50-of-127 (39.3%) from three in the last five games. That’s basically 10-of-25 per night. Will Warren has a good thread on the number of catch-and-shoot threes the Vols are allowing.
  • Trading Steals for Blocks: if you’re looking for the thing Tennessee is very best at, it’s still shot-blocking: 4.6% of Tennessee’s attempts get blocked, best in the nation, and the Vols send back 15.7% of opponent attempts, seventh nationally. That’s impressive, and fits the makeup of this team. I have no idea if this is happening on purpose or not, but being so good at the rim is correlating with a drop in efficiency in creating steals. Last year the Vols averaged 6.4 steals per game and took it away on 9.4% of opponent possessions, 104th nationally. This year the Vols average 5.8 steals per game despite playing at a faster pace, taking it away on 7.9% of opponent possessions, 255th nationally. Again: this is where the Vols miss James Daniel most. Is fatigue an issue here as well? It doesn’t seem that way watching games, but Jordan Bone is averaging 32 minutes after just 23 last year, and Lamonte Turner may still be playing his way back to 100% on both ends of the floor. The Vols have to get more from whoever is on opposing guards off the dribble.

The best offenses in the SEC belong, for the most part, to the best teams in the league. That means Tennessee’s defense won’t see a bunch of great offenses until the much-talked-about last three weeks of the season. Until then, the best offense they’ll face is the one coming here Saturday.

Avenge the Belk Kickoff!

West Virginia made three Sweet 16’s in the last four years, bounced by a one seed each time. They lost their two leading scorers to graduation, plus freshman Teddy Allen to transfer. Then they lost their leading returning scorer, center Sagaba Konate, to a knee injury in December; he could return this season, but no signs point to this weekend. In his absence 6’10” freshman Derek Culver has stepped in, and currently leads the Big 12 in defensive rebounding percentage.

If Tennessee is looking to improve defensively, here’s a good place to start: West Virginia has 249 assists to 289 turnovers this year. That’s more than 15 turnovers per game; they give it away on 21.3% of possessions and are especially vulnerable via steal, 341st nationally in steal percentage allowed (11.4% of possessions). Without Konate, 6’0″ guard James Bolden is the leading scorer at 12.8 per game, with 2.6 assists to 2.2 turnovers.

What West Virginia does well: get on the offensive glass (10th nationally), and get to the line (14th nationally). They will routinely run a 6’8″+ front line out there; 6’8″ senior Esa Ahmad is their best at getting to the stripe.

Their profile is not that different than Vanderbilt’s: injury derailed their hopes, mostly competitive but always on the wrong end in conference play. The Mountaineers lost to Texas Tech by three, at Texas by seven, at Kansas State by two and Oklahoma State by eight to open Big 12 play. Then they were blown out by 31 at TCU. But just when you wanted to write them off…they beat Kansas, something Tennessee did not do, 65-64 in Morgantown.

So, yes, KenPom likes the Vols by 18. That’s the mantle Tennessee has earned, even after the last two near-misses. We don’t want to get into that thing where we criticize every performance that isn’t a 20-point blowout just because we’re number one; there was plenty to enjoy from that win over Vanderbilt. Hopefully we find more of the same tomorrow.

Here’s the full schedule for the SEC/Big 12 Challenge:

  • #24 Iowa State at #20 Ole Miss – 12:00 PM – ESPN
  • Florida at TCU – 12:00 PM – ESPN2
  • Alabama at Baylor – 12:00 PM – ESPNU
  • Kansas State at Texas A&M – 2:00 PM – ESPN
  • Texas at Georgia – 2:00 PM – ESPN2
  • South Carolina at Oklahoma State – 2:00 PM – ESPNU
  • West Virginia at #1 Tennessee – 4:00 PM – ESPN
  • Vanderbilt at Oklahoma – 4:00 PM – ESPN2
  • #9 Kansas at #8 Kentucky – 6:00 PM – ESPN
  • Arkansas at #14 Texas Tech – 6:00 PM – ESPN2

Worth reading 1.24.19: Grant Williams is The Man

If you read only one thing about the Vols today . . .

. . . make it this, from Wes Rucker at 247Sports:

Other Vols stuff worth reading today

  1. Grant Williams Scores 43, Vols Beat Vandy in Overtime, via Gameday on Rocky Top
  2. Vols’ Bone, Bowden produce freelance magic in Vandy win, via 247Sports
  3. Everything Rick Barnes said after surviving at Vanderbilt, via 247Sports
  4. SEC Network on Twitter, via Twitter
  5. NCAA March Madness on Twitter, via Twitter
  6. Williams’ Record Performance Leads #1 Vols to 88-83 Win at Vanderbilt – University of Tennessee Athletics, via UTSports
  7. Williams Named to Naismith Defensive Player of the Year Watch List – University of Tennessee Athletics, via UTSports
https://twitter.com/marchmadness/status/1088267409855840256

Behind the paywalls

Grant Williams Scores 43, Vols Beat Vandy in Overtime

This team wants to make sure you keep the media guide handy.

When Admiral Schofield put 30 on #1 Gonzaga, we called it the best performance of the post-Chris Lofton era. We mentioned Grant Williams’ 37 points in Memorial Gymnasium last season – the most for any Vol since Ron Slay’s 38 in 2003 – as a footnote. In his two games against Vanderbilt last year, Williams attempted 15 free throws each time.

I feel like any attempt to say something clever about what happened tonight is a disservice to its greatness. Here it is:

Grant Williams: 10-of-15 FG, 23-of-23 FT, 43 points, 8 rebounds, 4 blocks.

The school record for points at Tennessee is 51 by Tony White vs Auburn in 1987. White also had 49 against Florida State the same year. Ron Widby scored 50 against LSU in 1967. Carl Widseth scored 47 against Auburn in 1956.

Next on the list is 43 points, which is the career high of Allan Houston, Reggie Johnson, Bernard King, Ernie Grunfeld…and now, Grant Williams.

And #1 Tennessee beat Vanderbilt 88-83 in overtime.

Teams Won’t Lay Down For Tennessee

The Vols jumped Alabama 16-4 in the first eight minutes, Vanderbilt 15-2 in the first five minutes. Perhaps you, like me, were kicking back to enjoy another beat down.

It didn’t happen Saturday, and certainly didn’t happen tonight. Credit Vanderbilt; Alabama is on the bubble, but the Commodores were 0-5 in SEC play and staring swiftly down the barrel of 0-6 after those first five minutes. But what a difference being hot from three makes.

Vanderbilt was shooting 33% on the year from the arc coming in. In SEC play:

  • 6-of-20 (30%) vs Ole Miss
  • 6-of-25 (24%) at Georgia
  • 7-of-25 (28%) at Kentucky
  • 7-of-21 (33%) vs South Carolina
  • 5-of-19 (26%) vs Mississippi State

Tonight: 10-of-21 (48%). Aaron Nesmith, Saben Lee, Matt Ryan, and Joe Toye went 10-of-18.

It made a huge difference, and the Vols had no answer on the other end: 5-of-20 (25%) from the arc, including 0-for-6 from Admiral Schofield. It’s the same percentage the Vols shot against Alabama. Yet the Vols walked away winners both times.

There was some reffin’ going on in both games, no doubt. Tennessee benefitted from a lightning-fast travel call on John Petty against Bama, and a hook-but-maybe-not-a-hold, letter-of-the-law flagrant foul in the final minutes of regulation tonight. But if you’re looking for why Tennessee won, look to the guy who knocked down both those free throws, then immediately scored on the ensuing inbounds.

Also, before that sequence, with the Vols down five and in need of a spark, this happened:

https://twitter.com/marchmadness/status/1088268365720944640

When Bone threw that ball, I swear I thought it was meant for Alexander. I’m glad we won to preserve a number one ranking, and I’m glad for Williams’ 43 points. But also, this dunk could not happen in a game Tennessee lost.

This game got bananas in the final minute, then again in overtime. But with the game on the line after a Saben Lee free throw put Vandy up one with 20 seconds to play, Grant Williams had one more and-one in him, then a great close out in the corner without fouling on a Vanderbilt three.

Vanderbilt shot way above their average, to their credit, and found ways to disrupt what Tennessee wanted to do. The Vols got nothing from Schofield offensively and stayed cold from the arc.

But Grant Williams was enough.

He scored all of Tennessee’s points in overtime (10) until Jordan Bone’s free throws with six seconds left. In the last ten minutes of regulation, he scored all of Tennessee’s points except Bowden’s dunk and Schofield’s runner. That’s 27 of Tennessee’s last 33 points in 15 minutes of game time.

That dude is going in the rafters. Tennessee plays on as number one.

How Not to Lose at Vanderbilt When Ranked Number One

If you’re looking for the best single performance from the last Tennessee team to reach number one, may I suggest the first meeting between the Vols and Commodores.

#6 Tennessee and #16 Vanderbilt met in Knoxville on January 17, 2008, more than a month before the Vols would eventually go to number one. The win that got them there was of obvious merit, beating #1 Memphis 66-62. But if you really wanted to see what the 2008 Vols could do, look to that first Vanderbilt game: an 80-60 blowout, featuring 18 points and 18 rebounds from Wayne Chism. It was a level-up game for #4, more proof he could also be the lead dog on a team with plenty of alpha in Chris Lofton, JaJuan Smith, and Tyler Smith (who added 14 and 9 just for good measure). Vanderbilt shot 3-of-21 from the arc, missed 10 free throws, and turned it over 22 times.

All of that made it easy to forget they were still a Top 20 team when we ran into them the second time around.

The Vols won at Memphis in a 9:00 PM Saturday night tip, then played at #18 Vanderbilt in a 9:00 PM Tuesday tip. The Commodores raced to a 23-9 lead, but Tennessee got it back within three at halftime. The shooting made the longest memories – 32 points from Shan Foster, 25 from Chris Lofton – but going back through the box score and recap at ESPN.com, you find 51 total fouls and 69 total free throw attempts. Down the stretch, Tennessee could not defend without fouling, allowing Vanderbilt to always stay two possessions ahead. The Commodores won 72-69, chasing Tennessee off the number one ranking and, more costly, eventually off the number one seed line.

That Vanderbilt team was a four seed in the NCAA Tournament, their 26 wins the most in Kevin Stallings’ 17 years in Nashville. And in the tournament…they lost to Siena in the first round by 21.

Still: this Vanderbilt team is not that Vanderbilt team.

This Vanderbilt Team

Everything has to start with Darius Garland. The five-star freshman point guard was the 14th-highest rated player in the nation coming in from 247, and the second point guard behind Kentucky’s Ashton Hagans (who is playing like it right now). He injured his knee in the fifth game of the year and was lost for the season. The most recent NBA mock draft I can find still has him going seventh overall. It’s a huge loss.

Whatever momentum Vanderbilt gained by an 81-65 win over Arizona State on December 17 has evaporated in an 0-5 start to league play. They lost to Ole Miss by 10, Georgia by 19, Kentucky by nine, South Carolina by three, and Mississippi State by 16. In conference games the ‘Dores rank 13th in offensive efficiency and 11th in defensive efficiency (via KenPom); Tennessee is number one in both.

By the way, is anyone winning the Kevin Stallings-Vanderbilt divorce? Bryce Drew’s first team was the first in history to earn an at-large bid with 15 losses, then lost an 8-9 game to Northwestern by two points. That team graduated Luke Kornet, but brought back Matthew Fisher-Davis, Riley LaChance, and Jeff Roberson for their senior seasons in 2018. Fisher-Davis was lost for the year in mid-January, but Vandy was already 6-11 (1-4) at the time. They finished 12-20 (6-12). His 2018 recruiting class was ranked 13th nationally, but now without Garland they’re headed toward another sub-.500 year. Stallings, of course, went 16-17 (4-14) then 8-24 (0-18) at Pitt and was done.

Also, Vanderbilt’s luck ratings in KenPom since 2015: 345, 346, 292, 336, and currently 316.

If you want to stay on the right side of luck tonight, don’t put this team on the line. The Commodores are ninth in the nation in free throw rate. Their particular strengths here are Saben Lee, who runs the point in Garland’s absence, and Simi Shittu, an even-higher-rated 6’10” freshman who sees the ball a ton.

Vandy defends the three well in conference play, and doesn’t turn it over a ton. An early whistle going against the Vols is the quickest way the Commodores stay in this game. As Tennessee seeks to improve its defense overall, defending without fouling is a good place to start: the Vols are 226th nationally in opponent free throw rate.

But if it doesn’t happen at the line, it’s tough to see it happening for Vanderbilt. They’re giving up 55.7% from inside the arc in league play, and Tennessee’s offense has become a monster in that department. And last year Grant Williams had 37 in Nashville and 18 more in Knoxville, and attempted 15 free throws in each game. They had no answer for him last year, and I’m not sure one has presented itself this year. Vanderbilt should be a welcome match-up for Williams after facing Alabama.

Anybody can get up to play the number one team in the nation, and Vanderbilt can always get up to play Tennessee. And we won’t know exactly how the Vols will play with that #1 next to their name until we see it. But when you’re 0-5 in league play, you can also catch a case of the oh-no’s real quick. The 2008 Vols peaked just before Nashville. Let’s hope the 2019 version is just getting started.

7:00 PM ET, ESPN2. Go Vols.

Worth watching 1.22.19: Things are looking up

https://twitter.com/MasonBurgin/status/1087727178136150016
https://twitter.com/Vol_Football/status/1086711755814944768
https://twitter.com/Vol_Football/status/1086712868396040193
https://twitter.com/Vol_Hoops/status/1086753595050074112
https://twitter.com/Vol_Hoops/status/1087013128947195905

Worth reading 1.22.19: We’re No. 1

If you read only one thing about the Vols today . . .

. . . make it this, from Wes Rucker at 247Sports:

Other Vols stuff worth reading today

  1. Anything is Possible, via Will at Gameday on Rocky Top
  2. College basketball media, fans react to Vols at No. 1, via 247Sports
  3. Admiral Schofield on being ranked No. 1: ‘Let the hate begin’, via 247Sports
  4. Top Spot: Tennessee Ascends to No. 1 in AP Rankings – University of Tennessee Athletics, via UTSports
  5. Vol Hoops Recruiting: Barnes Should Keep Looking for 2019, via DylanVol at Gameday on Rocky Top
  6. The Wise Move for the (Possible) Last Spot, via DylanVol at Gameday on Rocky Top
  7. Tee Martin hire was about more than recruiting for Pruitt, via 247Sports
  8. Vols Add Transfer Deangelo Gibbs – University of Tennessee Athletics, via UTSports
  9. Pruitt reveals what Vols are getting in Georgia transfer Gibbs, via 247Sports
  10. Departures leave Pruitt a staff void with special teams, via 247Sports
  11. Lady Vols Drop Nail-Biter To Arkansas, 80-79 – University of Tennessee Athletics, via UTSports

From the archives

2009: Recruiting U: the innovation we didn’t expect, via Joel at Rocky Top Talk. Despite how it all turned out, this wasn’t a bad reason to be excited about Lane Kiffn.

Anything is Possible

Almost eight years ago, I sat in a hotel room in Lexington, KY and wrote this:

This marriage is worth saving. We can survive without each other, but it will not be the same. And I do not believe that Bruce Pearl and Tennessee Basketball will ever be as good apart as we are together.

Save Bruce Pearl – Rocky Top Talk, March 18, 2011

Do this for any length of time, and you get to be wrong. And sometimes, you get to be wrong in ways that delight you.

With Tennessee going to number one, I’ve thought about those last few days at the end of Pearl’s tenure, when it felt like we were giving away something we wouldn’t get back. And I’ve also thought about those few days in November of 2017, when a basketball team picked to finish 13th in the SEC upset #18 Purdue in the Bahamas, four days before the football team almost hired Greg Schiano. In a relatively short period of time, we’ve experienced the worst of football – and the potential to stay there had things gone any number of ways with the head coach and athletic director hires – and now the very best of basketball.

Living at the extremes of football and basketball is another reminder of why we do this as fans: for all the moments along the journey, not just the peaks.

I don’t know how many times we’ve thought we were at rock bottom in football in the last decade. Nothing would be harder than saying goodbye to Fulmer. Nothing could be worse than losing your head coach in the middle of the night in January. Whoever followed Dooley would surely help the program ascend. Whoever we hired next would be more well-received than Butch. It can always get worse.

And I do know what Tennessee basketball achieved under Pearl was special, in a way that seemed impossible to duplicate. Yet here we are, back at the top of the polls and playing even better than the 2008 team, at least according to KenPom. It can always get better.

Follow the Vols (or any team) long enough, and you get the relative highs and lows. The whole of it brings us back, the relationship itself. That relationship hasn’t been boring the last ten years, in either sport. We’ve all had our moments, but we’re still here…and right now, here to the tune of 21,000+ at Thompson-Boling for Tennessee Tech, Georgia, and Alabama, with a multitude of sellouts to come.

I don’t know where this is going, or how far. Can the Vols stay healthy? Hungry? As good as we are, KenPom still projects three losses left in the regular season, even before we try to slay a 40-year dragon in the SEC Tournament. We’ve only made the Elite Eight once. We’ve never made the Final Four.

I only know it’s going to Vanderbilt on Wednesday night. And I know we’ll keep following.

It’s great. To be.

Vol Hoops Recruiting: Barnes Should Keep Looking for 2019

After signing his first 5-star at Tennessee in G Josiah James, along with Wing Davonte Gaines and Stretch-4 Drew Pember, it appeared that Rick Barnes was finished recruiting for the 2019 class.  After all, the Vols have one scholarship open during the 2018-19 season and have only two seniors in Admiral Schofield and Kyle Alexander. However, as this season has progressed it has become a much more realistic possibility that there will be more scholarships open when all is said and done.  For one, Junior F Grant Williams is having yet another outstanding season and is on his way to becoming the first back-to-back SEC Player of the Year since Corliss Williamson.  He’s therefore earning more and more first round NBA Draft buzz as he’s not only expanded his game to include more outside shooting but at the same time the NBA itself continues to evolve in a way that no longer labels someone with Williams’s body type and game a “tweener” who can’t play at a high level in the league.  His classmate, Junior PG Jordan Bone, is also having a breakout season and has cemented himself as the premier lead guard in the SEC and one of the best in the country.  At close to 6’4 he’s got workable height for an NBA PG and his athleticism and speed are elite.  His shot has continued to improve as well, both in terms of catch and shoot and even off the dribble, and as the Vols continue to rack up wins and see their national profile surge it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Bone’s name start to garner some buzz as well.  Finally, without naming names, there is at least one player on the current roster who could decide that having seen essentially zero minutes in two seasons at Tennessee that a transfer is the best thing for him. 

With all of these possibilities, it stands to reason that Tennessee should be continuing to recruit not just for 2020 and 2021, where the Vols already are in great shape for some elite prospects, but also for 2019.  Especially since the program’s national profile has never been higher – the Vols are now the #1 team in the country and are set up to win back to back SEC championships and have a deep March run – and Tennessee already has a 5-star in James it can tout to potential classmates.  As Tennessee Basketball stamps itself as an up and coming premier program – see this outstanding post by one of the best and most knowledgeable hoops posters on Volquest.com – it needs to take advantage of any opportunity it has to add more and more great players that fit its culture.

After the November signing period the pickings are relatively slim in terms of no-doubt high level players, and when considering the kind of character/fit filter that Barnes places on potential recruits that field narrows down even further.  However, there are a few potential avenues that Tennessee could pursue should more scholarships open up.

Unsigned 2019 Recruits or Signed 2019 Recruits Who Could Get Out of LOIs

Although the Vols don’t find themselves in the mix for any of the top unsigned prospects in the 2019 class, that’s largely a function of the staff having originally targeted a small number of players and then landing three of them.  However, there are still multiple high level 2019 players who have yet to sign/commit – 11 of the Top 47 players in the Rivals Top 150 are in fact undecided – and again as Tennessee both becomes a more desirable destination and also finds itself with an opening(s) the Vols could find themselves back recruiting multiple new 2019 players.

At the same time, every year when coaches get fired or leave for greener pastures players who signed LOIs in the fall signing period are released.  That will shake itself out over the course of the next two months or so, but one can be assured that the Tennessee staff is well aware of who is on the hot seat and what players signed to those schools the Vols might want to target.

Grad Transfers

A new trend is the massive amount of transfers in college basketball every offseason, many of whom are immediately eligible as graduates from their prior school.  Tennessee could use one of its theoretical open scholarships on such a player as a way to add a veteran player to what no matter what will be a talented and experienced roster. Tennessee hit it relatively big two offseasons ago when they beat out Ohio State for James Daniel III, a high-scoring guard from Howard Universitywho was a graduate transfer.  “JDIII” ended up being a meaningful contributor as a 3rd guard and great locker room presence on an SEC Championship team.  This past offseason however, the Vols were burned when they couldn’t get Richmond transfer guard Kwan Fore into school and ended up having the aforementioned open scholarship.  This is likely the route that Barnes will take should the Vols end up with only one scholarship open AND they can’t get a high level 2019 prospect or 2020 reclassifier (see below) AND they want to hold that scholarship open for what looks like it could be a monster class in 2020.

2020 Reclassifiers

Another relatively recent phenomenon that Tennessee freshman DJ Burns just took advantage of is for basketball players to reclassify into the class ahead of theirs and graduate/enroll in their school of choice a year early.

Walker Kessler is a 5-star 2020 Tennessee target who has mentioned reclassifying enough times to make one thinks it’s a real possibility.  Both Kessler’s brother and uncle played at UGA so the Dawgs are a strong contender, but the Vols are also fighting with the likes of Duke, Virginia, Michigan and UNC for the multi-skilled Center.  However, Rob Lewis from Volquest, who has more knowledge of what at least the Tennessee staff thinks about where they are with recruiting than anyone, seems to think that Tennessee is in better shape here than most national analysts do.  Tennessee will have to get him to campus to give itself a chance though, and the good news is that with the new official visit rules they can bring Kessler in for an official visit this season and if he does decide to stick in 2020 they can get him back officially again.

RJ Hampton and Jalen Green are Top 5 recruits in the 2020 class who to this point have not shown much interest in the Vols.  However, should the Vols indeed have a dream season they could find themselves in the mix for these two, among other future reclassifiers. 

The bottom line is that Barnes and Tennessee could be in the enviable position of having open scholarships when their stock has never been higher, and should be looking to take advantage.  Again, they are going to be picky when it comes to not just talent but also character, but just because they have at least 8 players returning next year from this year’s squad plus their 3 signees doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be looking to add bigtime talent when and where they can.