Worth reading 2.19.19: On improving the defense

If you read only one thing about the Vols today . . .

. . . make it this, from 247Sports:

Other Vols stuff worth reading today

  1. Tennessee-Vanderbilt: the four factors, via Gameday on Rocky Top
  2. Vols staffer Tom Satkowiak inspiration for Donate Life Night, via 247Sports
  3. Can Vols Start a Whitehaven Pipeline in Football and Hoops?, via Gameday on Rocky Top
  4. Toughest Regular Season Schedules from 2018. – Phil Steele, via Phil Steele. So yeah, Tennessee Football’s strength of schedule ranked third in the nation last year. Sheesh, it’s hard to rebuild against that level of competition.
  5. Tennessee Vols basketball team needs more from its bench, via the Times Free Press
  6. Freshman CB Burrell could be ‘great player’ for Vols, via 247Sports
  7. College basketball TV schedule for Vols fans: Week of 2.18.19, via Gameday on Rocky Top

Behind the paywalls

Tennessee-Vanderbilt: the four factors

The Tennessee Volunteers — who dropped to No. 5 in the polls and No. 6 in the NET, but maintained a projected 1-seed in the Bracket Matrix — host Vanderbilt tonight at 7:00 on ESPN.

As we did with the Kentucky game this past weekend, let’s take a look at the teams’ respective four factors numbers, first as a straight-up comparison and then in the context of their opponent.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

  • Tennessee 56.5 (No. 8) (down from 56.9 (No. 7))
  • Vanderbilt 50.3 (No. 198) (Kentucky’s was 52.8 (No. 93))

Turnover %

  • Tennessee 15.8 (No. 21) (up from 15.9 (No. 25))
  • Vanderbilt 19.9 (No. 255) (Kentucky’s was 18.5 (No. 158))

Offensive Rebound %

  • Tennessee 32.0 (No. 66) (down from 32.3 (No. 58))
  • Vanderbilt 28.6 (No. 178) (Kentucky’s was 38.3 (No. 3))

Free Throw Rate

  • Tennessee 36.0 (No. 107) (down from 36.3 (No. 102))
  • Vanderbilt 44.8 (No. 7) (Kentucky’s was 41 (No. 22))

Straight-up conclusions

The Vols are a better-shooting team than the Commodores and should have the advantage, although the same should have been true against Kentucky but wasn’t. Vanderbilt is a worse-shooting team than Kentucky, so there’s that.

It’s pretty much the same story for turnover percentage. Tennessee is generally much better than Vanderbilt at protecting the ball, and Vandy is even more generous than Kentucky.

Here’s some good news. Kentucky is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation, and, well, Vanderbilt is not. The Vols should have an advantage here.

And here’s some bad news. The Commodores are even better at getting to the free throw line than the Wildcats. Notably, both teams are much better at getting freebie opportunities than the Vols. Advantage, Vandy.

Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s EFG% is 56.5 (No. 8), while Vanderbilt’s defense against that is 48.5 (No. 75). They’re only marginally worse than Kentucky, which was 47.5 (No. 45) heading into last Saturday’s game.

We said prior to the Kentucky game that the Wildcats were probably going to give Tennessee’s usually-potent shooting offense some trouble, and that turned out to be the case in spades. Vanderbilt could present some of the same challenges, although I think the renewed focus that a bad loss in front of a national audience generally produces will pay dividends and that it should be okay tonight.

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Vanderbilt’s shooting offense is 50.3 (No. 198), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 47.2 (No. 36). The Vols should have some success at minimizing the Commodores’ shooting percentage.

Conclusions

Tennessee may not get its shooting groove completely back tonight, but they should have more success than they did Saturday in Rupp, and I don’t think Vanderbilt’s going to dominate the shooting percentages from both the field and the arc like Kentucky did against the Vols.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s turnover % is 15.8 (No. 21), while Vanderbilt’s turnover defense is 16.1 (No. 316). This is the biggest statistical advantage of the game for the Vols’ offense. How close can they get to a turnover-free game?

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Vandy’s turnover % is 19.9 (No. 255), while Tennessee’s turnover defense is 19.0 (No. 157).

Conclusions

Tennessee’s offense should play a pretty clean game tonight from a turnover perspective. Expect them to win comfortably on the statsheet in the turnover category.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 32.0 (No. 66), while Vanderbilt’s defense in that category is 28.2 (No. 176).

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Vanderbilt’s OR% is 26.8 (No. 178), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 30.7 (No. 273). Tennessee’s not good at keeping opponents off the offensive glass, but at least the Commodores aren’t as much of a threat in this area as Kentucky.

Conclusions

The Vols should have a rebounding advantage here despite not having a very good rebounding resume. I’m anxious to see what results a renewed focus on rebounding might produce for the Vols tonight. Preventing offensive rebounds, in particular, is an area that Tennessee really needs to improve on in a hurry.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 36.0 (No. 107), while Vanderbilt’s defense against that is 34.9 (No. 227).

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Vanderbilt’s FT Rate is 44.8 (No. 7), which is even better than Kentucky’s. Tennessee’s ability to keep opponents off the foul line is 33.8 (No. 201). (This figure took a major hit Saturday — it was 32.8 (No. 164) heading into Saturday’s game.) This is Vanderbilt’s biggest advantage tonight.

Conclusions

How much of Saturday’s inequity at the foul line was attributable to Tennessee’s actual ability and performance, and how much was due to playing at Rupp? I think we might get some clues to the answer tonight. The truth is that Vanderbilt, like Kentucky, is generally better at getting to the foul line, and Tennessee is not nearly as good at that as it needs to be.

But fixing this will probably be a point of emphasis for the Vols tonight. Regardless, if Vanderbilt ends up at the foul line a lot more than Tennessee tonight, the first one to make the joke about the Rupparees stowing away on Tennessee’s team bus gets a prize.

Summary and Score Prediction

As you’d expect in a game between a highly-ranked team and one that hasn’t yet won a conference game, Tennessee sports some big advantages in the categories that matter the most. They should outshoot and protect the ball better than Vanderbilt, and the game should also provide a nice opportunity to work on the things that need improving, such as rebounding and free throw rate. Rebounding will be easier to improve tonight than free throw rate, as on paper, Tennessee has a rebounding advantage but a free throw rate disadvantage. But we should get a glimpse tonight of how much the Vols can improve their weaknesses when they have their collective heads screwed on right.

KenPom has Tennessee winning this one 85-65. Vegas mostly agrees, as the line is Vols -19.

Go Vols.

Can Vols Start a Whitehaven Pipeline in Football and Hoops?

It’s common knowledge that Coach Jeremy Pruitt is making Memphis a huge priority in the class of 2020.  The Vols have targeted upwards of ten Memphis prospects in the class, and Memphians make up four of the top 7 prospects in the state according to 247 Sports.  Pruitt and Co. have already made inroads into the city, having signed OL Jerome Carvin and RB (LB?) Jeremy Banks in his first class (along with DL Emmit Gooden and Greg Emerson, from West Tennessee towns of Brownsville and Jackson, respectively) in his first class and following that up with the addition of OL Melvin McBride from Memphis’s Whitehaven HS in December.

Whitehaven will continue to be a popular stop for the Vols staff, as the Tigers have a LB trio that features two four-stars in Bryson Eason and Martavius French, who have offers from most of the SEC as well as other national powers like Oklahoma, along with well as Tamarion McDonald who is currently being heavily pursued by Ole Miss.  Eason and French were both on campus twice last spring/summer, and as the Vols continue to look to rebuild the LB position both of those prospects will certainly be purused.

It’s not just football, though, where Whitehaven has some real prospects in the class of 2020.  SG Matthew Murrell was recently bumped to the #78 overall prospect and is widely considered to be the best prospect in the city of Memphis regardless of class outside of University of Memphis 2019 signee James Wiseman, the #1 overall player in that class.  As we discussed here, Murrell fits the bill of what Coach Rick Barnes is looking for in terms of the culture of the program, and the Vols have already spent quite a bit of time recruiting him.  Notably, as we’ve also detailed, Tennessee has set itself up for a monster class of 2020 in terms of sheer talent it’s in deep with, and Penny Hardaway certainly won’t let Murrell go without a fight (see what I did there?).  Whitehaven’s basketball team features another player with a Tennessee offer in 7’4 C Jordan Wilmore.  Wilmore is definitely a project and given how Tennessee has positioned itself not just with so many bigtime players in the class but also with a handful of big men like PJ Hall and even recent visitor Dylan Cardwell, Wilmore is likely down the list currently.  But Tennessee did offer him in January, and Barnes does not hand out offers lightly, so while he’s raw he could definitely be one to watch.

McBride is a gregarious individual who no doubt will be doing some peer recruiting between now and when he enrolls in Knoxville over the summer, which won’t hurt in the least.  So as both head coaches Pruitt and Barnes spend time all over Memphis, expect there to be a Big Orange presence in the halls of Whitehaven HS for the next year as the Vols look to build a pipeline on both the gridiron and the hardwood. MartavʼnPYl

College basketball TV schedule for Vols fans: Week of 2.18.19

Here’s our list of games worth watching this week, specifically curated for fans of the Tennessee Volunteers.

Date Home Away Time TV
2/18/2019 #3 Virginia #20 Virginia Tech 7:00 PM ESPN
2/19/2019 Vanderbilt #5 Tennessee 7:00 PM ESPN
2/19/2019 #4 Kentucky Missouri 9:00 PM ESPN
2/20/2019 Florida #13 LSU 7:00 PM ESPN2
2/20/2019 #8 North Carolina #1 Duke 9:00 PM ESPN
2/20/2019 #6 Nevada San Diego State 11:00 PM CBSSN
2/21/2019 #7 Michigan Minnesota 7:00 PM ESPN

Monday

Tonight, you’ll want to root for Virginia Tech against Virginia at 7:00 on ESPN.

Tuesday

Tomorrow night, in addition to rooting for the Vols to get their groove back against Vanderbilt, Kentucky is in action against Missouri. Different strokes for different folks here, but I’m rooting for Cuonzo against the ‘Cats to give the Vols some cushion in the race for the SEC and for the 1-seeds. We’re going to want to beat them in Thompson-Boling on March 2 regardless, and I don’t think them losing another game or two before then would take much of the shine off it.

Wednesday

Root for North Carolina against Duke here, and, if you really want to indulge your fantasies, San Diego State against Nevada. The Florida-LSU game is interesting. Root for cushion or setting the stage for a statement Saturday? I’m pulling for the Gators and some breathing room.

Thursday

Go Gophers.

Full college basketball TV schedule

And here is the full searchable college basketball TV schedule for this week:

Date Home Away Time TV
2/18/2019 #3 Virginia #20 Virginia Tech 7:00 PM ESPN
2/18/2019 Idaho Eastern Washington 7:00 PM
2/18/2019 Alcorn State Arkansas-Pine Bluff 7:00 PM ESPNU
2/18/2019 Boston University Holy Cross 7:05 PM CBSSN
2/18/2019 Bethune-Cookman Savannah State 7:30 PM
2/18/2019 Florida A&M South Carolina State 7:30 PM
2/18/2019 North Carolina Central Howard 7:30 PM
2/18/2019 Illinois #22 Wisconsin 8:00 PM FS1
2/18/2019 North Carolina A&T Norfolk State 8:00 PM
2/18/2019 Texas Southern Jackson State 8:30 PM
2/18/2019 Southern Mississippi Valley State 8:30 PM
2/18/2019 Prairie View A&M Grambling 8:30 PM
2/18/2019 #23 Kansas State West Virginia 9:00 PM ESPN
2/18/2019 TCU Oklahoma State 9:00 PM ESPNU
2/19/2019 Dayton Davidson 6:00 PM CBSSN
2/19/2019 Vanderbilt #5 Tennessee 7:00 PM ESPN
2/19/2019 #15 Purdue Indiana 7:00 PM ESPN2
2/19/2019 Ohio #25 Buffalo 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/19/2019 Akron Bowling Green 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/19/2019 Nebraska Penn State 7:00 PM FS1
2/19/2019 Wake Forest Notre Dame 7:00 PM ESPNU
2/19/2019 Ole Miss South Carolina 7:00 PM SECN
2/19/2019 Iona Quinnipiac 7:00 PM ESPN3
2/19/2019 Saint Peter's Siena 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/19/2019 Ball State Miami (OH) 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/19/2019 Toledo Eastern Michigan 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/19/2019 Bucknell Colgate 7:00 PM
2/19/2019 Kent State Central Michigan 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/19/2019 #24 Maryland #21 Iowa 8:00 PM BTN
2/19/2019 Bradley Drake 8:00 PM ESPN+
2/19/2019 Wayland Baptist University UT Rio Grande Valley 8:00 PM
2/19/2019 Rhode Island VCU 8:00 PM CBSSN
2/19/2019 #4 Kentucky Missouri 9:00 PM ESPN
2/19/2019 #16 Florida State Clemson 9:00 PM ESPNU
2/19/2019 Baylor #19 Iowa State 9:00 PM ESPN2
2/19/2019 Alabama Texas A&M 9:00 PM SECN
2/19/2019 Texas A&M-International New Mexico State 9:00 PM
2/19/2019 UNLV Wyoming 10:00 PM CBSSN
2/20/2019 Rutgers #10 Michigan State 6:30 PM BTN
2/20/2019 #17 Villanova Georgetown 6:30 PM FS1
2/20/2019 Mississippi State Georgia 6:30 PM SECN
2/20/2019 Florida #13 LSU 7:00 PM ESPN2
2/20/2019 #18 Louisville Syracuse 7:00 PM ESPN
2/20/2019 Xavier Seton Hall 7:00 PM CBSSN
2/20/2019 Tulane Memphis 7:00 PM ESPNU
2/20/2019 Boston College NC State 7:00 PM ACCNE
2/20/2019 Fordham Richmond 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/20/2019 La Salle St. Bonaventure 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/20/2019 UMass George Washington 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/20/2019 Lipscomb Florida Gulf Coast 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/20/2019 North Florida Jacksonville 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/20/2019 Stetson NJIT 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/20/2019 North Alabama Kennesaw State 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/20/2019 American Lafayette 7:00 PM
2/20/2019 Army Lehigh 7:00 PM
2/20/2019 Navy Loyola (MD) 7:00 PM
2/20/2019 Evansville Loyola-Chicago 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/20/2019 Illinois State Indiana State 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/20/2019 Texas A&M-CC Stephen F. Austin 7:30 PM ESPN+
2/20/2019 Central Arkansas McNeese 7:30 PM
2/20/2019 Nicholls Sam Houston State 7:30 PM ESPN+
2/20/2019 Western Illinois Omaha 8:00 PM
2/20/2019 Northwestern State Houston Baptist 8:00 PM
2/20/2019 Lamar Incarnate Word 8:00 PM
2/20/2019 SE Louisiana New Orleans 8:00 PM
2/20/2019 Denver South Dakota 8:00 PM ESPN+
2/20/2019 Southern Illinois Valparaiso 8:00 PM ESPN+
2/20/2019 Northern Iowa Missouri State 8:00 PM ESPN+
2/20/2019 Northwestern Ohio State 8:30 PM BTN
2/20/2019 St. John's Providence 8:30 PM FS1
2/20/2019 Arkansas Auburn 8:30 PM SECN
2/20/2019 #8 North Carolina #1 Duke 9:00 PM ESPN
2/20/2019 Butler #11 Marquette 9:00 PM CBSSN
2/20/2019 Pittsburgh Georgia Tech 9:00 PM ACCNE
2/20/2019 Wichita State Tulsa 9:00 PM ESPNU
2/20/2019 Creighton DePaul 9:00 PM
2/20/2019 Stanford Arizona State 9:00 PM ESPN2
2/20/2019 Colorado Washington State 10:00 PM PAC12
2/20/2019 CSU Northridge Long Beach State 10:00 PM
2/20/2019 Air Force Fresno State 10:00 PM
2/20/2019 Colorado State San José St 10:00 PM
2/20/2019 #6 Nevada San Diego State 11:00 PM CBSSN
2/20/2019 New Mexico Utah State 11:00 PM ESPNU
2/20/2019 Utah Washington 11:00 PM
2/21/2019 #7 Michigan Minnesota 7:00 PM ESPN
2/21/2019 Towson Hofstra 7:00 PM
2/21/2019 Charleston William & Mary 7:00 PM
2/21/2019 James Madison Northeastern 7:00 PM
2/21/2019 UNC Wilmington Elon 7:00 PM
2/21/2019 UCF Cincinnati 7:00 PM ESPN2
2/21/2019 Albany Stony Brook 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/21/2019 Binghamton UMass Lowell 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/21/2019 Hartford New Hampshire 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/21/2019 Vermont UMBC 7:00 PM ESPNU
2/21/2019 Mt. St. Mary's Central Connecticut 7:00 PM
2/21/2019 LIU Brooklyn Robert Morris 7:00 PM
2/21/2019 Sacred Heart Fairleigh Dickinson 7:00 PM
2/21/2019 St. Francis (BKN) St. Francis (PA) 7:00 PM
2/21/2019 Gardner-Webb UNC Asheville 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/21/2019 Longwood Hampton 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/21/2019 Winthrop Radford 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/21/2019 Wagner Bryant 7:00 PM CBSSN
2/21/2019 Cleveland State Wright State 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/21/2019 Chattanooga The Citadel 7:00 PM ESPN3
2/21/2019 Samford Mercer 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/21/2019 East Tennessee State VMI 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/21/2019 Western Carolina UNC Greensboro 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/21/2019 Georgia Southern Coastal Carolina 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/21/2019 Georgia State Appalachian State 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/21/2019 Youngstown State Northern Kentucky 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/21/2019 South Carolina Upstate Charleston Southern 7:30 PM ESPN+
2/21/2019 UT Martin Murray State 8:00 PM ESPN+
2/21/2019 Eastern Illinois Belmont 8:00 PM ESPN+
2/21/2019 Purdue Fort Wayne South Dakota State 8:00 PM ESPN+
2/21/2019 SE Missouri St Austin Peay 8:00 PM ESPN+
2/21/2019 UL Monroe Texas State 8:00 PM ESPN+
2/21/2019 Louisiana UT Arlington 8:00 PM ESPN+
2/21/2019 Morehead State Jacksonville State 8:15 PM ESPN+
2/21/2019 SIU-Edwardsville Tennessee State 8:30 PM ESPN+
2/21/2019 Eastern Kentucky Tennessee Tech 8:30 PM ESPN+
2/21/2019 Eastern Washington Southern Utah 8:30 PM
2/21/2019 Idaho Northern Arizona 8:30 PM
2/21/2019 Pepperdine #2 Gonzaga 9:00 PM
2/21/2019 California Baptist Grand Canyon 9:00 PM ESPN3
2/21/2019 Chicago State Utah Valley 9:00 PM ESPN+
2/21/2019 UConn SMU 9:00 PM ESPN2
2/21/2019 San Francisco BYU 9:00 PM
2/21/2019 California Arizona 9:00 PM
2/21/2019 Oregon USC 9:00 PM ESPN
2/21/2019 High Point Campbell 9:00 PM ESPNU
2/21/2019 Saint Mary's Pacific 10:00 PM
2/21/2019 Portland San Diego 10:00 PM
2/21/2019 Cal Poly UC Irvine 10:00 PM ESPN3
2/21/2019 UMKC Seattle 10:00 PM
2/21/2019 Idaho State Portland State 10:05 PM
2/21/2019 Weber State Sacramento State 10:05 PM
2/21/2019 UC Davis CSU Fullerton 10:30 PM
2/21/2019 Hawai'i UC Santa Barbara 11:00 PM ESPNU
2/21/2019 Oregon State UCLA 11:00 PM
2/22/2019 Bowling Green Ohio 6:30 PM CBSSN
2/22/2019 Kent State #25 Buffalo 7:00 PM ESPN2
2/22/2019 Harvard Brown 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/22/2019 Canisius Monmouth 7:00 PM ESPNU
2/22/2019 Iona Manhattan 7:00 PM
2/22/2019 Saint Peter's Marist 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/22/2019 Niagara Rider 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/22/2019 Dartmouth Yale 7:00 PM ESPNN
2/22/2019 Milwaukee IUPUI 7:00 PM ESPN+
2/22/2019 Columbia Pennsylvania 8:00 PM ESPN+
2/22/2019 Cornell Princeton 8:00 PM ESPN+
2/22/2019 Indiana #21 Iowa 9:00 PM FS1
2/22/2019 Green Bay UIC 9:00 PM ESPNU
2/22/2019 Davidson Rhode Island 9:00 PM ESPN2

Worth reading 2.18.19: About that defense

If you read only one thing about the Vols today . . .

. . . make it this, from 247Sports:

I’m not sure “naive” is the right theme for this piece, but what appears to be the main idea to me — that the question of whether we should all be concerned about the Vols’ defense despite the team’s current record seems to have been answered in the affirmative — is spot on, I think.

Other Vols stuff worth reading today

  1. Jordan Bone’s ‘mature’ answer sets tone after Kentucky loss, via 247Sports
  2. Kentucky 86 Tennessee 69 – Educated or Exposed?, via Gameday on Rocky Top
  3. 2018-19 Men’s College Basketball Rankings for Week 16 | ESPN, via ESPN. Vols fall to No. 5.
  4. Wiedmer: Vols’ regular-season SEC title no longer so certain, via the Times Free Press
  5. Vols Add Derrick Ansley to Coaching Staff – University of Tennessee Athletics, via UTSports
  6. Tennessee’s entire football coaching staff for 2019 season, via 247Sports
  7. Everything Rick Barnes said during Monday’s press conference, via 247Sports
  8. Barnes: Getting Vols to play fast is Bone’s responsibility, via 247Sports

Behind the paywalls

  • Jeremy Pruitt’s staff moves show faith in delegation (and…, via The Athletic

Kentucky 86 Tennessee 69 – Educated or Exposed?

The Vols will have to deal with some talk of the latter after this one. Its ultimate destiny will depend on how much it invests in the former.

The first half was pure violence, Kentucky six points ahead behind the work of P.J. Washington inside and Keldon Johnson outside. The Vols were out of their natural element, but still very much alive behind the work of Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, and Jordan Bone.

The second half was the pendulum swing hard in officiating. But more than anything, Kentucky got a ton from its supporting cast: Reid Travis finished with 11 points and 10 free throw attempts, and Tyler Herro had 15 points and 13 rebounds. Meanwhile Lamonte Turner was 2-of-11, Jordan Bowden 1-of-7, and Kyle Alexander fouled out with the quickness.

Kentucky’s run to open the second half was shocking, pushing a six-point lead to 20 by the first media timeout. The Vols had only nine turnovers on the night, but three of them were in that four-minute span. Tennessee would get no closer than 11 from there.

We can go on with the words, but I’m not sure I have any to capture how physical this game was, and how often Tennessee was on the wrong end of it. Some of those words can go to the referees, but two things are clear: Kentucky was the aggressor, and the Vols have to be better than a tough whistle if they’re trying to win the national championship.

In context:

  • Tennessee shot 40.7% from the floor, third lowest of the season
  • The Vols took (settled for?) 25 threes, third most of the season
  • Eleven assists is the lowest total of the year
  • Kentucky shot 54.7%, the highest percentage the Vols have allowed this year
  • Kentucky blocked six shots, the most the Vols have allowed this year

In fairness, I’d imagine it’s tough to run through the sort of schedule Tennessee has faced since Gonzaga – only two games (Florida) against teams in the KenPom Top 50 – and then turn it around to Rupp Arena. And I assume it’s still good news, but after Vanderbilt on Tuesday the Vols will play five consecutive KenPom Top 40 teams, including Kentucky again in two weeks.

But, at least on this night, concerns about Tennessee’s defense not being at a championship level were validated, and Kentucky’s defense disrupted much of what Tennessee’s offense loves to do. And the Cats were simply the tougher team, and deserved victory.

I don’t think Tennessee was exposed. We’ve seen too much from this team over two years to believe they are tougher and can defend better than what we saw tonight. Perhaps instead this was simply an education in what it takes to win against an opponent of this caliber in the most hostile environment we’ll face, especially after not needing those levels since December 9.

Tennessee has to keep getting better. And to beat Kentucky, or a team like that deep in the tournament, they have to be tougher.

Plenty of opportunity knocks between now and then.

Your Gameday Gameplan: Tennessee Vols vs. Kentucky Wildcats

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the No. 1-ranked Tennessee Volunteers (23-1, 11-0) traveling to Lexington to take on the No. 5-ranked Kentucky Wildcats (20-4, 9-2).

Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Vols fans. Where and when to find the Vols game on TV, what other games to watch, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

The best other games for Vols fans to watch today

Here’s our list of games to watch today and tomorrow, curated just for Vols fans:

Home Away Time TV
SATURDAY, 2/16/19
#24 Maryland #6 Michigan 12:00 PM FOX
Auburn Vanderbilt 12:00 PM ESPNU
Texas A&M South Carolina 1:00 PM SECN
Notre Dame #4 Virginia 2:00 PM ACCN
West Virginia #14 Kansas 4:00 PM ESPN
#23 Iowa State #18 Kansas State 4:00 PM ESPN2
NC State #2 Duke 6:00 PM ESPN
#19 LSU Georgia 6:00 PM SECN
#1 Tennessee #5 Kentucky 8:00 PM ESPN
#3 Gonzaga San Diego 10:00 PM ESPN
SUNDAY, 2/17/19
Ohio State #11 Michigan State 1:00 PM CBS
#9 Houston Tulane 2:00 PM CBSSN
#13 Villanova St. John's 5:00 PM FS1

GRT game-week audio

Here’s Will’s regular Friday appearance with Josh Ward and Will West on WNML’s Sports 180:

Pre-game prep

And in case you missed any of it, here’s some additional reading material to get you game-ready:

Go Vols!

College basketball TV schedule for Vols fans: Weekend of 2.16.19

Here’s our list of games worth watching this weekend, specifically curated for fans of the Tennessee Volunteers.

Home Away Time TV
SATURDAY, 2/16/19
#24 Maryland #6 Michigan 12:00 PM FOX
Auburn Vanderbilt 12:00 PM ESPNU
Texas A&M South Carolina 1:00 PM SECN
Notre Dame #4 Virginia 2:00 PM ACCN
West Virginia #14 Kansas 4:00 PM ESPN
#23 Iowa State #18 Kansas State 4:00 PM ESPN2
NC State #2 Duke 6:00 PM ESPN
#19 LSU Georgia 6:00 PM SECN
#1 Tennessee #5 Kentucky 8:00 PM ESPN
#3 Gonzaga San Diego 10:00 PM ESPN
SUNDAY, 2/17/19
Ohio State #11 Michigan State 1:00 PM CBS
#9 Houston Tulane 2:00 PM CBSSN
#13 Villanova St. John's 5:00 PM FS1

No. 1 Tennessee actually has the national game of the weekend tonight against the No. 5 (for now) Kentucky Wildcats at 8:00 on ESPN. Pace yourselves, y’all.

But the appetizers tip at noon, and the day features a couple of other Top 25 matchups, several teams with which Tennessee is competing for top seeding, and several games among important SEC brethren.

In general, root for Tennessee first and foremost, and then for other top seeds to lose, former opponents that are seeded but not a threat to displace the Vols (like Kansas) to win, and SEC teams to win.

Yeah, I know that that last part ruffles feathers and also has exceptions, but that’s why it’s a general rule. If you’d rather root for a rival to lose than win even though it might be good for the Vols, you’ll be wrong but we can still be friends. And games between SEC teams? You’re on your own there, although we want as many “good” wins as we can get for seeding purposes, so at this point, you might want to root for good teams to win and bad teams to keep losing.

By the way, who you root for actually has no bearing on the game anyway. Just thought I’d mention that. 🙂

So, who are you rooting for in these non-Vols games?

Tennessee-Kentucky: the four factors

Hey, have you heard that there’s a huge game between No. 1 Tennessee and No. 5 Kentucky in Rupp Arena Saturday night at 8:00? You have? Well, okay then.

Will’s already posted his regular preview of the Tennessee-Kentucky game, which you should go read right now. But I wanted to also take another look at the game from a four factors perspective.

If you’re not familiar with the four factors, it’s essentially an analytical framework that boils the game of basketball down to four key categories:

  1. Shooting
  2. Turnovers
  3. Offensive Rebounding
  4. Getting to the foul line

Of these, shooting matters the most by far and is defined as a formula that results in a number known as effective field goal percentage. The remaining categories are in order of importance, but are only marginally more important than the one below them and are all much less important than shooting. That’s quite a dramatic oversimplification, so if you want the full explanation, check out the Dean Oliver four factors page. Even KenPom uses these four factors.

So, let’s take a look at Tennessee’s and Kentucky’s numbers in these all-important categories, first as a straight-up comparison and then in the context of offense vs. defense.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

  • Tennessee 56.9 (No. 7)
  • Kentucky 52.8 (No. 93)

Turnover %

  • Tennessee 15.9 (No. 25)
  • Kentucky 18.5 (No. 158)

Offensive Rebound %

  • Tennessee 32.3 (No. 58)
  • Kentucky 38.3 (No. 3)

Free Throw Rate

  • Tennessee 36.3 (No. 102)
  • Kentucky 41 (No. 22)

Straight-up conclusions

So, the Vols are much better at shooting and protecting the ball than are the Wildcats, but the Big Blue are much better at getting offensive rebounds and getting to the foul line than are the Big Orange. Fortunately for the Vols, their advantages are in the two most-important categories.

Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s EFG% is 56.9 (No. 7), while Kentucky’s defense against that is 47.5 (No. 45).

Head-to-head, Tennessee’s shooting offense still ranks higher than Kentucky’s shooting defense, but it’s probably safe to say that the Wildcats are going to be one of the toughest outs of the season for the Vols in this category. Kentucky’s number here (No. 45) is most similar to those of Kansas (No. 40), Louisville (No. 32), and Florida (No. 57). Tennessee rarely struggles shooting the ball, but it will be more difficult than usual Saturday night.

When Kentucky has the ball

Kentucky’s shooting offense is 52.8 (No. 93), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 46.7 (No. 27). They’re not terrible, but they’re not great, either, and they’ll be going against a very good defense.

Conclusions

Tennessee will likely struggle more than usual shooting the ball, but Kentucky should have even more trouble than Tennessee in this area.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s turnover % is 15.9 (No. 25), while Kentucky’s ability to generate turnovers (I’m going to call this “turnover defense” even though that sounds weird) is 20.4 (No. 86). That’s most similar to South Carolina.

When Kentucky has the ball

Kentucky’s turnover % is 18.5 (No. 158), while Tennessee’s turnover defense is 19.1 (No. 151).

Conclusions

Tennessee protects the ball pretty well, and Kentucky doesn’t present a particular threat on this front. On the other side of the ball, the Vols don’t do a great job of creating turnovers, but the Wildcats are fairly generous on their own. My guess is that turnovers won’t really be much of a factor Saturday.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 32.3 (No. 58), while Kentucky’s defense in that category is 25.8 (No. 61), which is most similar to Louisville.

When Kentucky has the ball

Here’s where is gets scary for Vols fans. Kentucky’s OR% is 38.3 (No. 3), while Tennessee’s defense in that category is 30.4 (No. 259). The Wildcats are great at getting their own misses, and — being generous here — the Vols aren’t especially well-equipped to prevent them from doing so.

Conclusions

The biggest advantage in this game appears to be on the offensive glass for the Wildcats. Get ready to go nuts every time we play good defense only to see them get an easy rebound and putback.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 36.3 (No. 102), while Kentucky’s defense against that is 27.1 (No. 34). What that means is that the Vols aren’t especially good at drawing fouls as a team, and the Wildcats are quite good at playing defense without fouling.

When Kentucky has the ball

Kentucky’s FT Rate is 41 (No. 22), while Tennessee’s defense is 32.8 (No. 164). So, the mirror image of the foregoing is also true: The Wildcats are good at drawing fouls, and the Vols aren’t especially good at avoiding them.

Conclusions

We’re going to want to blame this on CoRuppt Arena and the Rupparees, but it would be in keeping with both teams’ respective resumes if Kentucky ends up with a huge advantage in getting to the foul line Saturday night.

Score Prediction

KenPom has Kentucky winning this one 74-72. I suspect that this is just about right.