Gameday on Rocky Top

Here’s the best way I know to describe what’s no longer on the horizon, but finally here:

Tennessee (24-2, 12-1) has played eight games against KenPom’s Tier A, representing a Top 50 opponent when adjusting for location. Half of those came in the non-conference (Louisville, Kansas, Gonzaga, Memphis). Both games against the Gators are now Tier A after Florida’s win at LSU, as were the trips to South Carolina and, of course, Kentucky. That’s eight of Tennessee’s 26 games.

The Vols are about to play five Tier A opponents in a row.

Tennessee has played seven games against teams currently in the Bracket Matrix. Three of those came against Alabama and Florida, currently two of the last four in.

The Vols are about to play five teams seeded eight or better in a row.

Of Tennessee’s 12 SEC wins, 10 came by at least 11 points. Adjusting for location, KenPom projects the Vols to beat LSU by one, Ole Miss by four, Kentucky by three, Mississippi State by nine, and lose to Auburn by one.

Everything is different from here on out. Every night will be a challenge, every win a good one by any margin. The next five games and the SEC Tournament are the dress rehearsal for the NCAA Tournament, and the Vols are still fighting for one of its top seeds.

A year unlike any we’ve seen so far now faces its toughest test. Let’s see what Tennessee has left to give.

DaCoachO Doesn’t Care For DaNoonTipoff

LSU shares the same strength of schedule issues as Tennessee, with a less murderous finish. After tomorrow the Tigers face Texas A&M, then back-to-back road trips to Alabama and Florida, then finish with Vanderbilt. The loss to the Gators midweek helps, and they could easily fall again in Tuscaloosa or Gainesville…but you want to stay ahead of this team in the standings, given what Tennessee has left.

Their road to 11-2 in conference play is paved with points: in 10 of their 13 contests, LSU has scored at least 80 points, and cracked 90 three times. The Tigers also beat Kentucky with just 73 points. The footrace works both ways: LSU has three overtime wins in league play, plus the OT loss to Florida. They also fell to Arkansas in an absolutely bananas game 90-89.

So tomorrow they’ll face the only SEC offense better than their own: the Tigers are 11th nationally in offensive efficiency, but the Vols still trail only Gonzaga in that department. The Zags have an offensive rating of 127.9, topped only in the KenPom era by the 2015 Wisconsin team that beat Kentucky.

The Tigers get it from a David-and-Goliath combo of 5’11” Tremont Waters and 6’10” freshman Naz Reid. Waters puts in 15.7 points and 5.9 assists per game; he’s also seventh nationally at creating steals. Reid gets 13.8 points and 6.6 rebounds per game, and is a sneaky good three point shooter (38.1%). LSU has other double-digit scorers in guards Skylar Mays (an 86% free throw shooter) and Ja’vonte Smart, but a huge percentage of their offense runs through Waters and Reid.

LSU is going to run, and they’re going to attack the rim and the offensive glass. They lead the SEC in both offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate. And when it goes the other way, they’re going to attack the ball: the Tigers are fourth nationally at creating steals.

But if you can get past all the havoc – which is considerable – their defense is vulnerable. The Tigers are sixth in the SEC in defensive efficiency, but dead last (and 277th nationally) in two-point field goal percentage allowed. And the Vols have been excellent from inside the arc, shooting 57.1% on the year: sixth nationally, best in the SEC.

The win over Vanderbilt on Tuesday was a Cuonzo Martin special: we didn’t make shots, but everything else was there. Tennessee’s defensive efficiency went from the mid-50’s to the low-40’s, a great sign for this team’s championship potential. Against a team as good as LSU, the Vols will need to make more shots, of course. But the defensive performance against the Commodores made me feel better about Tennessee’s ceiling.

It’s easy to oversimplify this game and say Tennessee needs Jordan Bone to outplay Tremont Waters, and Grant Williams to outplay Naz Reid. But after Tennessee had its worst game of the season on so many levels at Kentucky, the Vols can be more than just the same team from Lexington that happens to make more shots. Against a team that goes so hard to the offensive glass, we’ll see what Tennessee learned in the toughness department. But it’s not just an intangible, as three of LSU’s five losses came when teams beat them at their own game: Florida State had 19 offensive rebounds, Houston 17, and the Gators 14, the three highest totals the Tigers have allowed all year.

The Kentucky game was bigger on a national level, but for the whole of the season this is one of the most important games left. For Tennessee to remain in control of its own destiny in the chase for a number one seed, this is a big one to get.

High noon, ESPN. Go Vols.

After Tennessee’s 58-46 win over winless-in-the-SEC Vanderbilt last night, you could see what looked like disappointment on the faces of the players. Beat writers were bracing for head coach Rick Barnes to express his own frustration in his post-game press conference.

But Barnes actually seemed pleased and unperturbed, as if he was grading based solely on his own narrow criteria. Last night’s game was an opportunity for the Vols to get hyper focused on the things they needed to fix about themselves, and when you look at those things, then yes, last night was encouraging.

Effective Field Goal Percentage

Tennessee’s offense is one of the best in the country in EFG%, but the Kentucky loss Saturday shined a harsh light on a concern that had been overshadowed by the team’s historical win streak: The Vols’ defensive EFG% is not good enough to enable the team to reach its ultimate goal for this season.

Kentucky shot 54.7% from the field and 38.5% from the arc against the Vols last Saturday. Against Vanderbilt last night, the Vols’ defense held the Commodores to 32.1% from the field and 30.4% from the three-point line. That’s still too high from three, and the offense had another off-shooting night, but Rick Barnes wasn’t concerned about the offense as much as he was pleased at the defensive success. Vandy’s 46 points was the lowest total for a Tennessee opponent since the first game of the season against Lenior-Rhyne.

Turnover Percentage

Tennessee had a significant advantage in the turnovers category heading into the game last night, but they failed to make anything of it. Vandy had 12 turnovers, but the Vols were uncharacteristically careless with the ball and gave up 11 themselves. This, along with the shooting troubles, is probably a big reason why they couldn’t put the game away until late.

Offensive Rebounding Percentage

We expected the Vols to have a slight advantage in rebounding last night, and they did, but it was indeed only slight. Tennessee had 9 offensive rebounds but only held Vandy to 8. On the defensive side, the Vols had a 31-25 advantage.

Consider this a mild success, although I wonder if they weren’t hoping for better.

Free Throw Rate

Vanderbilt’s biggest advantage on paper heading into the game last night was in its ability to get to the free throw line. This had to have been a major area of emphasis for the Vols, as it was one of the many things that killed them against Kentucky last weekend. The Wildcats went to the line 33 times to Tennessee’s 18. Vanderbilt’s resume in this category is actually better than that of Kentucky.

But last night, the Commodores only got to the line six times. That’s a huge success for the good guys, especially when you combine it with the improved defense. If you can defend that well without fouling, you’re in good shape.

With 111 entries, all of them updated since the Kentucky game, the Bracket Matrix still has Tennessee as a one seed. And it’s fairly comfortable: the Vols are the last one seed with an average seed of 1.22, and Kentucky is the first two seed with an average of 1.88. Say what you want about the AP poll, where the Vols dropped from first to fifth, but the vast majority of bracketologists still like Tennessee on the top line.

It will be interesting to see what the committee ultimately does with Nevada and Houston, the only one-loss teams left in college basketball. But the four favorites atop the bracket – Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga, and Tennessee – are the only two-loss teams left standing.

Tennessee’s biggest problem in perception isn’t that it lost at Kentucky. It’s that it lost by 17 in a game it trailed by 24. But take heart, friends: in 2017 North Carolina lost at Indiana by nine, at Georgia Tech by 12, at Miami by 15, at Duke by eight, at Virginia by 10, and to Duke again in the ACC Tournament by 10…and won the national championship. In 2016 Villanova lost to Oklahoma by 23 in December. In 2015 Duke lost at home to Miami by 16. You get the idea. Nothing is off the table.

But Tennessee’s biggest problem in reality is a defense now sitting at 52nd in efficiency when, again, only seven-seed UConn in 2014 won the national championship without an offense and defense in the top 20 nationally.

The Vols got punched in the face, and so far have said all the right things in the aftermath. It’ll be tough to judge against Vanderbilt, unless the Commodores are feeling frisky again. But Vandy is 0-12 in the league: a beat down should be the expectation, but it’s hard to prove anything against a winless foe. But beyond them, we all know what’s coming: each of Tennessee’s last five games will be against what should be a team with a favorable first-round match-up in the NCAA Tournament. It’s basically playing five second-round-or-better opponents in a row.

The chase for the league title is now especially interesting with the Vols and LSU at 11-1, Kentucky at 10-2. Here’s what everyone has left:

• Tennessee: Vanderbilt, at LSU, at Ole Miss, Kentucky, Mississippi State, at Auburn
• LSU: Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M, at Alabama, at Florida, Vanderbilt
• Kentucky: at Missouri, Auburn, Arkansas, at Tennessee, at Ole Miss, Florida

KenPom projects madness with 4-2 finishes for each team. Obviously, you don’t want to get behind LSU with that finale against Vanderbilt. If Duke, Virginia, and Gonzaga keep doing their things, talk of the final one seed coming down between Kentucky and Tennessee isn’t far-fetched at all.

Michigan could get in the way there, but if not, the committee’s choice between the Vols and Cats would go to Kansas City. The more challenging portion is an increased likelihood of the loser going to Louisville (yay!) as the two seed, but having to deal with Duke or Virginia in the Elite Eight (boo!). All those conversations about, “If we lose to Duke, so be it,” sound a lot better when you’re picturing that loss in the Final Four instead of the Elite Eight.

But all of that is miles ahead. We’ve seen enough to know what Tennessee is capable of in toughness and defense. Plenty of previous champions have been punched in the face. But if the Vols don’t do something good with the taste in their mouths, they won’t join them, and will be in danger of losing a favorable path to come closer than this program has before.

Keep getting better.

The Tennessee Volunteers — who dropped to No. 5 in the polls and No. 6 in the NET, but maintained a projected 1-seed in the Bracket Matrix — host Vanderbilt tonight at 7:00 on ESPN.

As we did with the Kentucky game this past weekend, let’s take a look at the teams’ respective four factors numbers, first as a straight-up comparison and then in the context of their opponent.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

• Tennessee 56.5 (No. 8) (down from 56.9 (No. 7))
• Vanderbilt 50.3 (No. 198) (Kentucky’s was 52.8 (No. 93))

Turnover %

• Tennessee 15.8 (No. 21) (up from 15.9 (No. 25))
• Vanderbilt 19.9 (No. 255) (Kentucky’s was 18.5 (No. 158))

Offensive Rebound %

• Tennessee 32.0 (No. 66) (down from 32.3 (No. 58))
• Vanderbilt 28.6 (No. 178) (Kentucky’s was 38.3 (No. 3))

Free Throw Rate

• Tennessee 36.0 (No. 107) (down from 36.3 (No. 102))
• Vanderbilt 44.8 (No. 7) (Kentucky’s was 41 (No. 22))

Straight-up conclusions

The Vols are a better-shooting team than the Commodores and should have the advantage, although the same should have been true against Kentucky but wasn’t. Vanderbilt is a worse-shooting team than Kentucky, so there’s that.

It’s pretty much the same story for turnover percentage. Tennessee is generally much better than Vanderbilt at protecting the ball, and Vandy is even more generous than Kentucky.

Here’s some good news. Kentucky is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation, and, well, Vanderbilt is not. The Vols should have an advantage here.

And here’s some bad news. The Commodores are even better at getting to the free throw line than the Wildcats. Notably, both teams are much better at getting freebie opportunities than the Vols. Advantage, Vandy.

Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s EFG% is 56.5 (No. 8), while Vanderbilt’s defense against that is 48.5 (No. 75). They’re only marginally worse than Kentucky, which was 47.5 (No. 45) heading into last Saturday’s game.

We said prior to the Kentucky game that the Wildcats were probably going to give Tennessee’s usually-potent shooting offense some trouble, and that turned out to be the case in spades. Vanderbilt could present some of the same challenges, although I think the renewed focus that a bad loss in front of a national audience generally produces will pay dividends and that it should be okay tonight.

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Vanderbilt’s shooting offense is 50.3 (No. 198), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 47.2 (No. 36). The Vols should have some success at minimizing the Commodores’ shooting percentage.

Conclusions

Tennessee may not get its shooting groove completely back tonight, but they should have more success than they did Saturday in Rupp, and I don’t think Vanderbilt’s going to dominate the shooting percentages from both the field and the arc like Kentucky did against the Vols.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s turnover % is 15.8 (No. 21), while Vanderbilt’s turnover defense is 16.1 (No. 316). This is the biggest statistical advantage of the game for the Vols’ offense. How close can they get to a turnover-free game?

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Vandy’s turnover % is 19.9 (No. 255), while Tennessee’s turnover defense is 19.0 (No. 157).

Conclusions

Tennessee’s offense should play a pretty clean game tonight from a turnover perspective. Expect them to win comfortably on the statsheet in the turnover category.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 32.0 (No. 66), while Vanderbilt’s defense in that category is 28.2 (No. 176).

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Vanderbilt’s OR% is 26.8 (No. 178), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 30.7 (No. 273). Tennessee’s not good at keeping opponents off the offensive glass, but at least the Commodores aren’t as much of a threat in this area as Kentucky.

Conclusions

The Vols should have a rebounding advantage here despite not having a very good rebounding resume. I’m anxious to see what results a renewed focus on rebounding might produce for the Vols tonight. Preventing offensive rebounds, in particular, is an area that Tennessee really needs to improve on in a hurry.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 36.0 (No. 107), while Vanderbilt’s defense against that is 34.9 (No. 227).

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Vanderbilt’s FT Rate is 44.8 (No. 7), which is even better than Kentucky’s. Tennessee’s ability to keep opponents off the foul line is 33.8 (No. 201). (This figure took a major hit Saturday — it was 32.8 (No. 164) heading into Saturday’s game.) This is Vanderbilt’s biggest advantage tonight.

Conclusions

How much of Saturday’s inequity at the foul line was attributable to Tennessee’s actual ability and performance, and how much was due to playing at Rupp? I think we might get some clues to the answer tonight. The truth is that Vanderbilt, like Kentucky, is generally better at getting to the foul line, and Tennessee is not nearly as good at that as it needs to be.

But fixing this will probably be a point of emphasis for the Vols tonight. Regardless, if Vanderbilt ends up at the foul line a lot more than Tennessee tonight, the first one to make the joke about the Rupparees stowing away on Tennessee’s team bus gets a prize.

Summary and Score Prediction

As you’d expect in a game between a highly-ranked team and one that hasn’t yet won a conference game, Tennessee sports some big advantages in the categories that matter the most. They should outshoot and protect the ball better than Vanderbilt, and the game should also provide a nice opportunity to work on the things that need improving, such as rebounding and free throw rate. Rebounding will be easier to improve tonight than free throw rate, as on paper, Tennessee has a rebounding advantage but a free throw rate disadvantage. But we should get a glimpse tonight of how much the Vols can improve their weaknesses when they have their collective heads screwed on right.

KenPom has Tennessee winning this one 85-65. Vegas mostly agrees, as the line is Vols -19.

Go Vols.

Here’s our list of games worth watching this week, specifically curated for fans of the Tennessee Volunteers.

Monday

Tonight, you’ll want to root for Virginia Tech against Virginia at 7:00 on ESPN.

Tuesday

Tomorrow night, in addition to rooting for the Vols to get their groove back against Vanderbilt, Kentucky is in action against Missouri. Different strokes for different folks here, but I’m rooting for Cuonzo against the ‘Cats to give the Vols some cushion in the race for the SEC and for the 1-seeds. We’re going to want to beat them in Thompson-Boling on March 2 regardless, and I don’t think them losing another game or two before then would take much of the shine off it.

Wednesday

Root for North Carolina against Duke here, and, if you really want to indulge your fantasies, San Diego State against Nevada. The Florida-LSU game is interesting. Root for cushion or setting the stage for a statement Saturday? I’m pulling for the Gators and some breathing room.

Thursday

Go Gophers.

Full college basketball TV schedule

And here is the full searchable college basketball TV schedule for this week: