The Tennessee Volunteers — who dropped to No. 5 in the polls and No. 6 in the NET, but maintained a projected 1-seed in the Bracket Matrix — host Vanderbilt tonight at 7:00 on ESPN.
As we did with the Kentucky game this past weekend, let’s take a look at the teams’ respective four factors numbers, first as a straight-up comparison and then in the context of
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
- Tennessee 56.5 (No. 8) (down from 56.9 (No. 7))
- Vanderbilt 50.3 (No. 198) (Kentucky’s was 52.8 (No. 93))
Turnover %
- Tennessee 15.8 (No. 21) (up from 15.9 (No. 25))
- Vanderbilt 19.9 (No. 255) (Kentucky’s was 18.5 (No. 158))
Offensive Rebound %
- Tennessee 32.0 (No. 66) (down from 32.3 (No. 58))
- Vanderbilt 28.6 (No. 178) (Kentucky’s was 38.3 (No. 3))
Free Throw Rate
- Tennessee 36.0 (No. 107) (down from 36.3 (No. 102))
- Vanderbilt 44.8 (No. 7) (Kentucky’s was 41 (No. 22))
Straight-up conclusions
The Vols are a better-shooting team than the Commodores and should have the advantage, although the same should have been true against Kentucky but wasn’t. Vanderbilt is a worse-shooting team than Kentucky, so there’s that.
It’s pretty much the same story for
Here’s some good news. Kentucky is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation, and, well, Vanderbilt is not. The Vols should have an advantage here.
And here’s some bad news. The Commodores are even better at getting to the free throw line than the Wildcats. Notably, both teams are much better at getting freebie opportunities than the Vols. Advantage, Vandy.
Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s EFG% is 56.5 (No. 8), while Vanderbilt’s defense against that is 48.5 (No. 75). They’re only marginally worse than Kentucky, which was 47.5 (No. 45) heading into last Saturday’s game.
We said prior to the Kentucky game that the Wildcats were probably going to give Tennessee’s usually-potent shooting offense some trouble, and that turned out to be the case in spades. Vanderbilt could present some of the same challenges, although I think the renewed focus that a bad loss in front of a national audience generally produces will pay dividends and that it should be okay tonight.
When Vanderbilt has the ball
Vanderbilt’s shooting offense is 50.3 (No. 198), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 47.2 (No. 36). The Vols should have some success at minimizing the Commodores’ shooting
Conclusions
Tennessee may not get its shooting groove completely back tonight, but they should have more success than they did Saturday in Rupp, and I don’t think Vanderbilt’s going to dominate the shooting percentages from both the field and the
Turnover %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s turnover % is 15.8 (No. 21), while Vanderbilt’s turnover defense is 16.1 (No. 316). This is the biggest statistical advantage of the game for the Vols’ offense. How close can they get to a turnover-free game?
When Vanderbilt has the ball
Vandy’s turnover % is 19.9 (No. 255), while Tennessee’s turnover defense is 19.0 (No. 157).
Conclusions
Tennessee’s offense should play a pretty clean game tonight from a turnover perspective. Expect them to win comfortably on the
Offensive Rebounding %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s OR% is 32.0 (No. 66), while Vanderbilt’s defense in that category is 28.2 (No. 176).
When Vanderbilt has the ball
Vanderbilt’s OR% is 26.8 (No. 178), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 30.7 (No. 273). Tennessee’s not good at keeping opponents off the offensive glass, but at least the Commodores aren’t as much of a threat in this area as Kentucky.
Conclusions
The Vols should have a rebounding advantage here despite not having a very good rebounding resume. I’m anxious to see what results a renewed focus on rebounding might produce for the Vols tonight. Preventing offensive rebounds, in particular, is an area that Tennessee really needs to improve on in a hurry.
Free Throw Rate
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s FT Rate is 36.0 (No. 107), while Vanderbilt’s defense against that is 34.9 (No. 227).
When Vanderbilt has the ball
Vanderbilt’s FT Rate is 44.8 (No. 7), which is even better than Kentucky’s. Tennessee’s ability to keep opponents off the foul line is 33.8 (No. 201). (This figure took a major hit Saturday — it was 32.8 (No. 164) heading into Saturday’s game.) This is Vanderbilt’s biggest advantage tonight.
Conclusions
How much of Saturday’s inequity at the foul line was attributable to Tennessee’s actual ability and performance, and how much was due to playing at Rupp? I think we might get some clues to the answer tonight. The truth is that Vanderbilt, like Kentucky, is generally better at getting to the foul line, and Tennessee is not nearly as good at that as it needs to be.
But fixing this will probably be a point of emphasis for the Vols tonight. Regardless, if Vanderbilt ends up at the foul line a lot more than Tennessee tonight, the first one to make the joke about the
Summary and Score Prediction
As you’d expect in a game between a highly-ranked team and one that hasn’t yet won a conference game, Tennessee sports some big advantages in the categories that matter the most. They should outshoot and protect the ball better than Vanderbilt, and the game should also provide a nice opportunity to work on the things that need improving, such as rebounding and free throw rate. Rebounding will be easier to improve tonight than free throw rate, as on paper, Tennessee has a rebounding advantage but a free throw rate disadvantage. But we should get a glimpse tonight of how much the Vols can improve their weaknesses when they have their collective heads screwed on right.
KenPom has Tennessee winning this one 85-65. Vegas mostly agrees, as the line is Vols -19.
Go Vols.