The Long Way Out of the Wrong Kind of History

Despite everything that’s happened the last 11 years, Tennessee is still 11th in winning percentage all-time, still second in the SEC behind Alabama. This is Tennessee’s historical DNA in both football and basketball: the first challenger to the thrones in Tuscaloosa and Lexington.

But Tennessee’s struggles from Phillip Fulmer’s final season through Jeremy Pruitt’s first are unique among their blue-blood brethren. I’m not sure any of the 15 winningest programs in college football history have seen a stretch of sub-.500 football in the modern era like the one Tennessee is currently enduring.

We already know 2017 was Tennessee’s worst season of at least the last 50 years, and not just in wins and losses: that season finishing in the 17th percentile in estimated S&P+ means Pruitt inherited a deeper hole than any of his current SEC contemporaries in year one. That appears to have been rock bottom, but as we know it took more than a one-year drop-off from 2016 to 2017 to truly get there.

From 2008-18, the Vols are 67-70. That .489 winning percentage is 73rd nationally in that span, better only than Kentucky (.457) and Vanderbilt (.428) in the SEC. Some Top 15 programs have hovered around .500 or even further below for several years in the modern era, but I couldn’t find any stretch of sub-.500 football for this long.

Before we spend some time looking at how the Vols have gotten out of similar holes (if not quite as deep and complex) in their own history, I wanted to see if there were comparisons with other historic programs. Here’s as close as I could reasonably come in search of those comparisons:

Oklahoma 1994-99

  • All-Time Winning Percentage: .724, fifth
  • 1994-99: 30-38-1

Oklahoma went 6-6 in Gary Gibbs’ final season, then hired Howard Schnellenberger. He went 5-5-1 in 1995, then resigned. They hired John Blake, who went 12-22 in three years. Then Bob Stoops went 7-5 in his first season. Of course, they won the BCS title in year two.

Southern Cal 1996-2001

  • All-Time Winning Percentage: .698, seventh
  • 1996-2001: 37-35

John Robinson won the Rose Bowl in 1995, but went 6-6 and 6-5 the next two years and was out. Paul Hackett came in and went 8-5, 6-6, and 5-7; Wikipedia notes it was USC’s first consecutive non-winning seasons since 1960-61. Pete Carroll went 6-6 in his first season. After that: 11-2, 12-1 and a title, 13-0 and another title.

LSU 1989-94

  • All-Time Winning Percentage: .652, 13th
  • 1989-94: 25-41

Mike Archer went 4-7 and 5-6 in his last two seasons. Curley Hallman went 16-28 over the next four seasons, never making a bowl game and leading a 2-9 squad in 1992. Gerry DiNardo was hired and went 7-4-1, 10-2, and 9-3 his first three seasons, but stumbled to 4-7 and 3-9 to close out the 1990’s. LSU hired Nick Saban and the rest is history.

So we’ve seen top-tier teams struggle as much or more than Tennessee in recent history, but only for about half as long. Programs like Oklahoma had unusual coaching turnover that contributed to the problem. While it’s difficult to duplicate Tennessee’s weirdness in the last 11 years, programs we might point to with similar circumstances both found their way out of it sooner and weren’t as bad for as long. Alabama had Mike DuBose in 2000, Dennis Franchione for two seasons, the infamous Mike Price hiring and firing, then Mike Shula to take over in 2003. But the Tide still went 53-40 on the field between DuBose’s final season and Saban’s first, though the official, post-violation record books have them at 32-46 in that span. Other programs had individual coaches that definitely didn’t work – Rich Rodriguez, Gerry Faust – but the next guy brought an upswing.

It’s obvious Butch Jones wasn’t that guy, but it’s still interesting to note how close he was to breaking Tennessee’s down cycle for at least one or two seasons. If the Vols stop Florida on any fourth down in 2015 to win the SEC East, and/or beat Vanderbilt to make the New Year’s Six in 2016, Jones would’ve been seen more like LSU’s DiNardo: not the guy long-term, but brought Tennessee back to tangible prominence for at least a moment and made life easier on the next guy. But you can’t really say the same thing about a pair of 9-4’s when they’re followed by the worst season of at least the modern era.

So we rightfully keep looking at the valley Tennessee has been in as a continuous walk for the last 11 years, with the sub-.500 football to prove it. If there’s a benefit here, it’s the way the length of the journey has forced healthier expectations upon us for Jeremy Pruitt’s second season. It wasn’t one bad hire or even six years away as was the case for Oklahoma, Southern Cal, and LSU. One great hire put a national championship in their hands in year two for Stoops, year three for Carroll, and year four for Saban. Given the length of Tennessee’s absence from that conversation, it should rightfully take a little more time to figure out if Pruitt is that kind of great coach, with other steps rightfully celebrated along the way.

Making Progress: Third-and-Short

We saved the worst for last. In our series on where Tennessee can make the most progress in 2019, we’ve explored:

But if you’re looking for the thing Tennessee was absolutely, positively worst at last season, it’s third-and-short.

Last year Tennessee ran the ball 21 times on 3rd-&-1-to-3. They gained just 20 yards. Those 0.95 yards per carry on third-and-short weren’t just last in the country: Liberty finished 129th, and averaged 1.52 yards per carry. The Vols were the only team in America to average less than a yard-and-a-half per carry on third-and-short, and the Vols averaged less than a yard period.

(Stats, as always, via SportSource Analytics)

Those 21 carries led to 10 first downs, meaning the Vols converted just 47.6% of the time when running the ball on third-and-short. By comparison, here’s what Tennessee did in other situations last fall:

AttFirst DownsSuccess Rate
3rd 1-3 Run211047.62%
3rd 1-3 Pass10440.00%
3rd 4-6 Run9222.22%
3rd 4-6 Pass281553.57%
3rd 7-9 Run7342.86%
3rd 7-9 Pass281346.43%
3rd 10+ Pass341132.35%

Statistically speaking, it was better for the Vols to be in 3rd-&-4-6 and pass than 3rd-&-1-3 and run. And Tennessee had more or less the same chance of getting a first down on a third-and-short run and a third-and-long pass.

The truth is, if you’re in third-and-short, you’ve done fairly well on first and second down. But Tennessee struggled mightily to convert from there. Here’s what the rest of the SEC did when running it on third-and-short:

AttYardsAvg1st DownsSuccess Rate
Georgia361885.222672.22%
Missouri451783.963168.89%
Florida421784.242866.67%
Texas A&M321404.382165.63%
Kentucky461563.393065.22%
Alabama431824.232865.12%
Mississippi State522815.403261.54%
Auburn452665.912760.00%
LSU491984.042959.18%
Arkansas20311.551155.00%
Ole Miss34932.741750.00%
Vanderbilt241134.711250.00%
Tennessee21200.951047.62%
South Carolina21512.43838.10%

Obviously, it would be hard to get much worse in this department. The good news is, because you’re already in a short yardage situation, a little improvement goes a long way toward keeping a drive alive. There may also be a stubbornness component here: I’d imagine Jeremy Pruitt/Tyson Helton had to see it several times to believe the Vols really couldn’t move the pile on third-and-short. Pruitt and Chaney are likely to believe it sooner if it happens again this fall.

Tennessee’s place in the SEC Unit Rankings

We rolled out several new features in the 2019 edition of our Gameday on Rocky Top preseason football magazine, one of which is an eight-page Unit Rankings spread in the SEC section.

The GRT 2019 Unit Rankings section analyzes all 14 SEC teams by position and then ranks them for the upcoming season. The analysis varies depending on the position, but generally speaking, it’s based on how productive the unit was the prior season, how much of that production is returning, and how well the team recruited that position this cycle.

Tennessee, unfortunately, did not fare very well in most of the rankings. If you’ve purchased the magazine, you’ll know that the Vols rank first in the league in returning production percentage. According to our formula, Tennessee returns 89.47% of its offensive production, 68.07% of its defensive production, and 76.63% of its overall production. LSU is right behind the Vols with 76.29% overall, but there is a fairly significant gap between those two teams and everyone else.

Of course, returning production percentage tells only part of the story. It speaks to a team’s continuity, but it says nothing about how productive the team actually was the prior season, and it’s that second part that doomed the Vols in this year’s rankings. They simply weren’t very productive on either offense or defense in 2018.

Based on our calculations, here are the top SEC teams at each position for this fall:

And here’s where Tennessee came in at each position:

As you can see from the table above, Tennessee’s offensive and defensive production in 2018 is an anchor weighing down expectations for this fall despite the fact that the Vols return a larger percentage of that production than any other team in the SEC.

Even the Vols’ highest ranking — No. 3 at linebacker — was recently rendered incorrect with the announcement that Darrin Kirkland Jr. is indeed retiring from football. Kirkland’s status was still up in the air at our early press time, so his contributions were included in the calculations. Removing Kirkland’s contributions (and adding those of Darrell Taylor, who the official source data incorrectly identified as a DL despite him playing OLB all season) results in the Vols dropping down to No. 5. Shame, too, because those pages could really have used some of the right shade of orange.

Making Progress: Explosive Plays

In 2016 the Vols were one of the most explosive teams in the country: 79 plays of 20+ yards, 19th nationally. In 2017, the bottom fell out hardest here: only 38 plays of 20+ yards, 123rd nationally.

Here too, progress was slow but accounted for last season: 52 plays of 20+ yards, 96th nationally. But remember, Tennessee ran fewer plays than any team in the nation last year. So those 52 explosive plays represented a higher percentage of the whole.

In fact, in the passing game the Vols were really good in their ratio of explosive plays to total passing attempts. In the post-Fulmer era, Jarrett Guarantano’s 7.8 yards per attempt trailed only Tyler Bray (8.3 in the last five games of 2010, 8.0 in 2011 and 2012) and Josh Dobbs in 2016 (8.3). And the percentage of big plays was even higher last season.

Here’s the percentage of 20+ yard passing plays in Tennessee’s total passing attempts this decade:

SeasonPassing Att20+%
20182973913.1%
2017319257.8%
20163795013.2%
2015371369.7%
2014453449.7%
2013344329.3%
20124775311.1%
2011400297.3%
20104195412.9%

(Stats via Sport Source Analytics)

Guarantano (with a small assist from Keller Chryst) connected on big plays in the passing game at a better rate than any Vol squad other than the 2016 offensive juggernaut. Those numbers don’t include sacks as passing attempts – Vol QBs went down on about 7% of drop backs – but Tennessee was still potent in the passing game, thanks in part to the work of Marquez Callaway, Jauan Jennings, and Josh Palmer on the other end of the play. Palmer’s 21.04 yards per catch were the most by any Vol this decade with 20+ receptions in a season; Callaway’s 16 yards per catch trailed only Josh Malone in 2016 (19.44), Cordarrelle Patterson in 2012 (16.91), and Denarius Moore in 2010 (20.87) among those with 35+ receptions in a season.

The Vols may not want to go fast, but they have all the tools to go big in the passing game, including what should be an improved offensive line.

Explosiveness in the running game, however…here’s the percentage of 10+ yard running plays in Tennessee’s total rushing attempts this decade:

SeasonRushing Att10+%
20184194911.7%
20174134611.1%
20165178516.4%
20156179515.4%
20145246111.6%
20134606915.0%
20124135112.3%
2011392307.7%
20104085012.3%

As you’d expect: slightly better than 2017, but in a group of sub-par performances that only top 2011, when the Vols had no passing game to keep defenses honest after Tyler Bray’s injury.

Ty Chandler got hot late in the season and finished with 5.48 yards per carry. But Tim Jordan actually carried the ball most (132 attempts to 115 for Chandler), and his 3.95 average was the lowest for the lead back since Tauren Poole’s 3.71 in that 2011 season. Tennessee’s additional options to find balance created few sparks: Madre London had 206 yards on 42 carries (4.90 per), Jeremy Banks 185 yards on 52 carries (3.56 per).

An improved offensive line should help here, and Eric Gray could provide those needed sparks to assist Chandler and Jordan. Could the Vols use the passing game to set up the run more in 2019? With Pruitt’s conservative nature, that will be interesting to watch. But with the right combination of existing pieces, new faces, and a willingness to pursue more big plays, Tennessee’s offense could show significant improvement in this department.

June Recruiting Preview: A Massive Month for the Vols

With the month of May coming to a close and Tennessee sitting on 6 public commitments after the recent addition of JUCO DB Art Green, the Vols have a class that significantly favors quality over quantity at this point.  With the top two JUCOs in the country (Green and DE Jordan Davis) along with a Top 5 QB in the country, a 4-star DL, a potentially elite Slot WR in Jimmy Calloway, and one of the best Longsnappers in the country, there is absolutely zero fat in this class so far.  But, after losing a handful of bigtime prospects for whom they were in deep with, including DL Justin Rogers, OL Tate Ratledge, and WR Rakim Jarrett – not to mention the commitment of RB Ebony Jackson – the month of June is expected to be, and needs to be, a profitable one for Coach Jeremy Pruitt and Tennessee.  In fact, given the accelerated recruiting calendar these days, with spring/summer official visits and the December signing period, it’s almost a must that the Vols come out of June with some tangible results.  Below are some story lines to watch as Tennessee’s camps get started this coming weekend:

Vols would like to see some instate players camp

As opposed to the class of 2019, Pruitt and his staff are clearly enamored with more than a few instate players.  At the same time, there is a group of instate players with multiple Power 5 and even SEC offers that don’t yet have an offer from the Vols.  Some do have a Tennessee offer but so far the Vols aren’t pushing as hard as others, and Pruitt’s staff would love for them to come camp in Knoxville and earn it:

DL Derrell Bailey (camping this weekend), Corbet Mims (recent offer), and Michael Reese (offer).  Dallas Walker is another instate DL who Tennessee has offered but so far isn’t pursuing as hard as even the likes of Auburn and Florida.

DBs De’Arre McDonald (will definitely camp, date TBD), Devonte Nelson, Dajean Gibson, and Yukari Blanchard are all interesting DB prospects.  Tennessee would surely love to add to its DB board, and if they could do it with an instate player(s) who earned an offer via a camp performance all the better.

Offensive skill players Darrin Turner and Elijah Young both have Vol offers but right now aren’t being heavily recruited by Tennessee.  That could change if either or both of them showed out at camp.  There’s really no good reason for Young – a Knoxville-area native – not to do so.

OL Marcus Henderson has seen his recruitment slow down a bit and likely doesn’t committable offers right now from the big name on his list, including Tennessee.  Were he to make the cross-state trek from Memphis and perform well, however (ala Melvin McBride last year), that could change.  Same for fellow Memphian, White Station Spartan OL Ray Curry.

Not all of these guys will camp, but the ones that do – especially those without offers – could find themselves being heavily targeted by Tennessee and could quickly reshape UT’s overall board.

Priority instate targets could make decisions

As noted, the Vols would love to build the foundation of its class with instate players, and OL Cooper Mays and Chris Morris,S Keshawn Lawrence, and DL Tyler Baron, Jay Hardy, and Reggie Grimes are arguably Tennessee’s top targets from the Volunteer State.  Morris has already said he will be back to Knoxville to camp in June after visiting the first weekend of May, and likely will take a summer official visit as well.  The others, with the exception of Grimes, have Tennessee right at the top of their respective lists and have developed a bond among the four of them especially while jointly visiting Knoxville on multiple unofficial visits.  They’ve also each flirted with the idea of committing this summer, and were one to take the plunge and commit to Tennessee it could create a tsunami among the rest (as well as others).  Obviously the Tennessee staff would like to at least get them back to campus this summer, but ideally would Tennessee would love for them to jump onboard. 

OL Board will really take shape

After a tremendous OL haul in the class of 2019 that came after adding at least two future multiple-year starters (plus a grad transfer) in the class of 2018, Tennessee is likely being extremely picky with its OL spots and take no more than four, if that.  With Ratledge committing to UGA, Mays and Morris are easily the Top 2 OL on the board for the Vols.  As discussed above, one or both of them could do something this coming month or close to it.  Either way, along with targets like Joshua Jones (who just put the Vols in his Top 6) and Denadre Buford, the OL below will see some action in their recruitment in June:

Bigtime OL Xavier Hill will take his official visit to Knoxville the weekend of June 14th.  He’s been to Knoxville once already and has also taken an OV to LSU.  He had once considered a May commitment – many thought Alabama was in the driver’s seat – but backed off of that.  However, he’ll be at Texas A&M this coming weekend and then at Alabama for a mid-week visit right after his trip to Tennessee, so with those visits in the can he may be ready to make a decision soon.

Tennessee has also recently added two JUCO OL to its board, both from ASA College in Brooklyn, the former home of Tennessee’s director of programming for football Joe Osovet.  Both Tariq Stewart and Antwan Reed will make unofficial visits to Knoxville the weekend of June 14th and depending on how the trips go and how they look physically one or both could become serious targets.

Richie Leonard will OV to Kentucky on the weekend of June 8th and is working on setting up OVs to Tennessee (he visited in April unofficially) and likely FSU after just OV’ing to Georgia Tech this past weekend.  He’ll then decide over the 4th of July weekend.  Miami, UCF, Louisville, West Virginia and Washington State are contenders as well.

Newly minted 4-star Marcus Dumervil plans to visit Tennessee this month, along with Ohio State and UGA.  Alabama, OU and LSU (already visited both officially) in mix as well.  Dumervil hails from St Thomas Aquias HS in Florida, the alma mater of current Vols Josh Palmer and Kivon Bennett, so Tennessee certainly has a tie there. 

Javion Cohen, who visited Knoxville back in February before committing to, and subsequently decommitting from, South Carolina, is fresh off an OV to Georgia Tech this past weekend along with Leonard.  He’s got OVs set for homestate (and presumed leader) Auburn this weekend and Florida the weekend of June 15th, so if the Vols want to stay in that race they’ll need to get him back to campus soon.

Josh Remetich from New Orleans will camp after receiving an offer this month. He’s got some lower-end SEC, ACC and Big 10 offers so it will be great for the staff to see him in person to evaluate.

Other targets will camp and/or visit

Undoubtedly dozens of prospects from the classes of 2020 and beyond will make their way to Knoxville during the month of June, many of whom don’t yet have firm public dates.  For example, LB Kourt Williams might visit this month as the Vols look to dip into California for a stud 2nd-level defender for the second year in a row, and fellow LB Rodney Groce also plans on coming back to Knoxville after a great visit in March. 

Below are the players who are known to be planning to visit Knoxville in June (along with the prospects discussed above), as well as some notes on Vol targets visiting elsewhere during the month:

Recently offered LB Allen Merrick and teammate (and Alabama commitment) ATH De’Rickey Wright, RB Israel Abanikanda, and DL Derrell Bailey will visit this coming weekend.  So will 2022(!) instate WR target Taylor Groves.  Notably, top RB prospect Tank Bigsby will make his official this weekend to South Carolina, absolutely one to watch as the Cocks are his presumed leader and will certainly be pushing for him to shut it down. OL Xavier Hill will be on an OV to Texas A&M (with some Vol targets). 

Additionally, Auburn is holding its Big Cat Weekend event, and Vol targets DL Zykevious Walker and Dallas Walker, OL Cohen (OV), DB Brian George (OV), LB Trenton Simpson (OV), and WR EJ Williams will be on the Plains.  Bigtime LB target Len’Neth Whitehead will make the short trip to Athens, GA to camp at UGA – likely in an attempt to earn a commitable offer.

The June 8th weekend is already setting up to be a monster, with multiple top-of-the-board targets set to visit.  LB Trenton Simpson will take his official visit to Knoxville in between the trip to Auburn and one to Georgia, while DL Omari Thomas and high school teammate RB Jabari Small will take unofficial visits (after both visiting Texas A&M the weekend before), perhaps also bringing fellow Briarcrest High student and top 2021 hoops target Kennedy Chandler with them. QB Haynes King is planning on making a decision by late June, and he’ll also be at Texas A&M this coming weekend before heading to Knoxville the 8th for his OV.  How that visit goes will likely determine whether the Vols end up signing a 2nd QB in the class to go with Harrison Bailey, as King appears to be their lone remaining target at the position.

OL James Robinson will take his official visit to Tennessee the weekend of June 15th, a week after possibly visiting/camping at instate Auburn, which will be one to watch.  Bigtime WR target Zevian Capers, currently an Arkansas commit, will also take his OV to Tennessee this weekend.  With multiple visits currently planned for after his UT trip, the Vols will need to hit a homerun with Capers to land him.DL Corbet Mims will also be in town that weekend, unofficially, while stud DL Darrion Henry is tentatively set to officially visit.  The Vols sit in Henry’s top 4, with LSU (already OV’d) and Cincinnati (OV the previous weekend) all trailing instate Ohio State, who will receive an OV the following weekend. 

DE Blayne Toll, S Jaquorius Conley and LB Quandrrius Robinson all have official visits to Tennessee scheduled for the weekend of June 22nd, so having three bigtime Defensive targets on officials will be big for the Vols.  Robinson will be at Kentucky the June 8th weekend, Auburn (where he was once committed) the weekend after, and Alabama for a mid-week official in between those.  He’s another one who could make a late June/early July decision after having taken most of his OVs.  Meanwhile Toll is thought to be an OU lean so the Vols have ground to make up there. 

There is simply no getting around it: June is a huge month for Tennessee.  After a more-than-solid class of 2019, Coach Pruitt and his staff absolutely have an opportunity to fast-track the rebuild with a bigtime class of 2020.  The Vols will have many of their top prospects on campus for camps, unofficial visits, and even official visits.  At the same time, many top targets will also be visiting other campuses.  Importantly, at least seven will take their official visits to Knoxville in June – after Tennessee used six of them for the Orange & White Weekend.  So the Vols – while not an outlier in this Spring/Summer Official Visit trend that has massively accelerated from last year – are absolutely shooting their shot incredibly early on many of their top targets.  Therefore, by the time the 4th of July rolls around the direction of Tennessee’s 2020 recruiting class, which is currently short on quantity but high on quality, will be much clearer. 

Early Bowl Projections Expect Vols to Make Reasonable Progress

Magazines are hitting shelves – get ours here! – and with them an early round of bowl projections for Tennessee. The good news: I haven’t seen the Vols projected to come up empty in the postseason yet, nor have I seen Tennessee projected to spend December in Birmingham or Shreveport.

It’s all an educated guessing game at this point; a couple of outlets have the Vols projected to the Belk (247) and Gator (Sporting News) Bowls. But these two and their SEC group of six counterparts – the Outback, Music City, Liberty, and Texas bowls – are reasonable destinations for Tennessee this fall. Any bowl appearance would be progress by definition, but an expectation for the Vols to get back in this group of six tier comes with a ceiling at its top in Tampa, or just beyond it in Orlando.

The first question to ask when making these projections is, “How many SEC teams do you think will make the College Football Playoff & New Year’s Six?” In the first five years of the playoff, the SEC put 14 teams in those two tiers, an average of 2.8 per year. With the semifinals in Atlanta and Tempe this year, the Sugar Bowl will automatically take the highest-rated SEC team not in the playoffs; that means at least two from this conference off the board if you expect Alabama to make it six-for-six in the CFP. Last season we saw a record four SEC teams come off the board before the Citrus Bowl, with the Tide in the playoff and LSU, Georgia, and Florida all in the New Year’s Six.

The Citrus Bowl picks next, then the league office works with schools and bowls to “assign” teams to the group of six games. Here’s how all of that has looked since the playoff began in 2014:

20142015201620172018
AlabamaCFPCFPCFPCFPCFP
ArkansasG6G6G6
AuburnG6OtherNY6NY6G6
FloridaOtherCitrusG6NY6
GeorgiaG6G6G6CFPNY6
KentuckyG6G6Citrus
LSUG6G6CitrusCitrusNY6
MississippiNY6NY6
Mississippi StateNY6G6OtherG6G6
MissouriCitrusG6G6
South CarolinaOtherOtherG6G6
TennesseeG6G6G6
Texas A&MG6G6G6G6G6
VanderbiltOtherG6

If the SEC gets three teams in the CFP and New Year’s Six, and the fourth team goes to the Citrus Bowl, the Vols or anyone else would just need to be considered one of the ten best teams in the league to make a group of six bowl. Seeing Tennessee routinely projected in this group suggests an expectation the Vols won’t just sneak in at 6-6, but fall in line with their Vegas projection of 7-5.

We wrote on the value of 7-5 a few weeks ago, but the bowl game adds another layer of context. If the Vols hit their Vegas number and win the bowl game, an 8-5 finish would be the third best season of the last 12 years:

  • 9-4: Butch Years 3 & 4
  • 8-5:
  • 7-6: Kiffin, Butch Year 2
  • 6-7: Dooley Year 1
  • 5-7: Fulmer Final Year, Dooley Years 2 & 3, Butch Year 1, Pruitt Year 1
  • 4-8: Butch Year 5

The relative value of 7-5 would depend on which seven and which five, but should easily slide the Vols into a group of six bowl for a shot at a nice aftertaste. That continues to look like a reasonable expectation for Tennessee this fall.

Tennessee Recruiting Positional Update: Tight Ends

Despite signing two high-level Tight Ends in the 2019 class in Jackson Lowe and Sean Brown, there is still both a lack of depth as well as the kind size that Pruitt prefers on the current roster.  Further, 2019 starter Dominick Wood-Anderson is heading into his last year of eligibility.  Only Lowe, Brown, redshirt freshman Jacob Warren, redshirt Junior Austin Pope and redshirt Sophomore James Brown are projected to the 2020 roster, and they all combine for 3 career catches, all by Pope, while only the freshman (giving Warren the benefit of the doubt due to his large frame and Strength & Conditioning Coach Craig Fitzgerald’s track record) truly have the size Tennessee wants at the position.

With Jim Chaney’s history of success using TEs as well as likely instant playing time available for a bigtime recruit(s), there’s not just a real need at the position for the Vols going forward but also a compelling sales pitch available.  However, while that is clearly the case, there only appear to be two actual targets on the board right now.  Both of them – 5-stars Arik Gilbert and Darnell Washington ae obviously bigtime, and with that comes the kind of competition that will make it very difficult to land either of them.  Gilbert, while UT QB commitment Harrison Bailey’s high school teammate and a frequent visitor to Knoxville, is considered a heavy UGA lean (with Alabama and Clemson in there, too), while Washington is being targeted by the likes of Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State among others.  Washington will take his OVs during the season and attend games, with Alabama (vs. LSU), Georgia (vs Notre Dame), Miami right now guaranteed three of them and the Vols fighting Florida, Auburn and likely others for his final two visits. 

Given the small number of current targets, as well as the kind of schools Tennessee is recruiting against for them, don’t be surprised to see Tennessee widen its net at the position throughout the cycle.  The Vols will hope to add targets both during the upcoming summer evaluation and camp periods as well as during the season, likely including the Junior College ranks.  One thing the Vol staff could consider, depending on how especially Lowe, Brown, and Warren develop as well as needs and numbers at other positions, is the fact that there are two stud instate Tight Ends in the class of 2021.  Hudson Wolfe, who hails from a Tennessee family in Savannah, Tennessee (the same high school as current Vol Latrell Bumphus) has already been to campus twice this year including for the Orange & White game and projects as a bigtime player, while midstate native Jake Briningstool is already ranked as a 4-star by 247.  Should the Vols like how the current young TEs on the roster are developing and feel like they have a really strong shot at one or both of Wolfe/Briningstool they might elect to not “reach” for a TE in this class just to have one and instead focus their resources elsewhere with confidence in the future at the position.

Tennessee Recruiting Positional Update: Wide Receivers

With four senior Wide Receivers at or near the top of Tennessee’s 2019 depth chart and little in the way of proven depth behind them, recruiting at the position for the 2020 class is of the utmost urgency.  Looking out to 2020, the Vols currently project to have only seven WRs on the roster (eight if you count Deangelo Gibbs, who from this vantage point seems best suited at the STAR position on defense due to his prior experience there and the greater chance he can have a large impact).  Of those 7-8, only Josh Palmer has proven himself to be a consistent SEC producer, and three of them are redshirt or true freshmen.   Further, if Tennessee wants to take the next step towards truly contending for SEC championships than it can’t just be about quantity (which is a clear need in an of itself) but also quality – the Vols need gamebreakers, plural, at the position, and they need them now. 

The good news for Tennessee is that its new position coach, Tee Martin, is an elite recruiter with deep ties to the South, and hoping to have kind of impact we forecasted back when he was hired. Martin has been consistently mentioned with elite WR prospects since his hiring – especially in Alabama and Georgia as ten of the twelve prospects discussed below hail from one of those two states – and has the Vols in the mix with multiple high level WRs.  However, after having missed on a couple of high level targets (more below) it’s imperative that the Vols close the deal on a few of them instead of coming in second.

Tennessee does already has a commitment from 3-star Jimmy Calloway who picked the Vols over Oregon and others – he’s most recently been offered by South Carolina in mid-May.  Calloway is an explosive athlete and track star who can play on either side of the ball and is very comfortable with the ball in his hands.  He’s shined at a couple of spring 7-on-7 events showing off great route running and dynamic playmaking ability and seems destined for more high-level offers.  He’s also got some high-end CB attributes and could end up getting a look there in college as well.  The bet here is that Tennessee will look smart having snagged Calloway’s early commitment but will end up having to fight off numerous other power programs.

4-star Zevian Capers, who is technically committed to Arkansas but taking visits, visited Tennessee in early April and has the Vols high on his list.  The large-framed but speedy pass-catcher took an official visit to South Carolina in late April and Tennessee hopes to get him back on campus again soon.  Capers showed out at the Atlanta Opening event, measuring in at 6’4 and close to 200 lbs while showing off great route running, speed, change of direction and sure hands.  Along with the Razorbacks and Gamecocks, he also has offers from Florida and actually received a Clemson offer last March as well.  While the Vols need at least 4 WRs in this class, Capers would make a great pairing with Calloway in terms of size and positional combinations. 

After two visits in a month, Tennessee is the stated leader for 4-star Kris Abrams-Draine, a 4-star former LSU commitment.  From South Alabama like Martin , he’s a smaller WR at 6’0 and around 170 pounds, but with offers from Oregon, Florida, and LSU among others, has the perfect size/quickness combination for the slot.  Having already been committed before it wouldn’t be a surprise to see “KAD” take his time before committing again, but as of now the Vols have placed themselves in a very strong position.

4-star EJ Williams took his official visit to Knoxville for the Orange & White Game after visiting previously in March and has the Vols in an unofficial top 6 along with Florida, Florida State, Alabama, Auburn, and Clemson.  Things have been relatively quiet for the Alabama native, which might not be a great sign for Tennessee considering he’s used that official visit already.  His only other OV is set for instate Auburn in late June, and took an unofficial visit to Gainesville last weekend.  Hailing from the same high school as Clemson freshman sensation Justyn Ross, Williams has the Tigers and Alabama on top at the moment.  Clearly this is going to be a tough battle for Tee Martin and the Vols but if the recruitment extends further into the season Tennessee certainly has enough traction to stay in the mix for his planned August 24th announcement.

Former LSU commitment and Memphis native Darrin Turner is another target on the radar, although despite his 4-star ranking he seems like a player the Vols would like to see in camp. His physical profile compares to 2019 Arkansas signee Trey Knox, a similarly big-bodied instate player who the Vols ultimately passed on. If Turner a) gets to campus and b) shows not just overall ability but high-end speed, the Vols could absolutely turn up the heat on him.

The Vols are also very much in the mix for 4-stars Mushin Muhammad (who visited in early April but has since visited Texas A&M twice) and are still working on 4-star Alabama commitment Dazalin Worsham who’s been on campus three times himself, including as recently as March.  4-star Auburn commitment Kobe Hudson decided to visit Knoxville for Tennessee’s spring game over the Tigers, suggesting that the door is at least cracked for the Vols.  Tennessee also offered 4-star Joshua Downs, a UNC commitment who is 7-on-7 teammates with Harrison Bailey and hails from the same Atlanta-area high school as 2019 Vol signee Warren Burrell.  Then there is Memphis native and former Oklahoma signee Kundarrius Taylor, Junior College teammate of Vol commit Jordan Davis who Tennessee has offered.  4-star do-it-all athlete Demarcus Beckwith (cousin of Lamonte Turner) also has the Vols high on his list after visiting in March.  Finally, Georgia natives Robert Lewis and Kobe Hudson (teammate of Harrison Bailey) have Vol offers and have both been to campus.

The Vols appeared to be in very strong shape with 5-star DC-native Rakim Jarrett, who took two unofficial visits to campus in March.  However, he committed to LSU while on an OV in Baton Rouge in late April.  Jarrett profiles as an instant 2020 starter in the mold of recent Alabama and Clemson WRs and would be one of the jewels of this class, so expect the Vol staff to continue to work to get him back for an official visit at some point before signing day.  Similarly, the Vols were right there for Thaiu Jones-Bell (who visited for the Orange & White Game) but he recently committed to Alabama.

The board will shake itself out as the above targets will (hopefully) make their way back to Knoxville and additional offers could emerge from camp performances.  Tennessee has done a nice job getting involved with multiple WRs the caliber of which it needs to take the next step offensively – and frankly most if not all of the existing WRs on the board have better recruiting pedigrees than all of the signees in the last two classes except Ramel Keyton – but as stated above the next and most important step is landing them.

Tennessee’s offensive line growing, but still needs more

A couple of weeks ago, we started looking at the size of the defensive front seven, ultimately finding that Tennessee’s projected starting lineup should be in the upper tier with Alabama and Georgia this fall. But what about the other side of the ball? Is Tennessee’s offensive line big enough to hold its own against monster-sized defensive fronts?

The benchline for the cumulative weight of the Vols’ offensive line starters was 1,532 pounds in 2017. It dipped to 1,505 in 2018, but is projected to be back around 1,535 this fall. If everything falls right, it could be 1,579.

But how does that compare to Tennessee’s SEC opponents this fall? Unfortunately, not great. Here’s the info:

Even though Tennessee’s projected starting lineup includes all five guys weighing in at over 300 pounds, it still comes in last on that list. Even if you make the most favorable assumptions, the Vols’ are still only sixth on that list at 1,579 pounds.

There are basically three, maybe four, tiers here. First, Georgia is in a class by itself at a monstrous 1,643 pounds. Their lightest starter is 318, and the rest of the guys are 320, 330, 335, and 340 pounds.

Missouri, Mississippi State, and Alabama are all over 1,600 pounds. You can go and ahead include Kentucky, which comes in at 1,592, in that tier or give them their own.

And then come Vanderbilt, Florida, South Carolina, and Tennessee, all 1,550 and under.

At this time, we have no data on the correlation, if any, between cumulative weight of the offensive line and offensive profiency. But I will note that of the teams on that list, the most prolific offenses last fall were Alabama, Missouri, and Georgia.

Tennessee’s made some progress in this area, and if the guys can continue to bulk up over the summer, they could make some additional headway. But this data may be some indication that they’re still going to have a challenge when push comes to shove this fall.

Making Progress: Red Zone Defense

Here are Tennessee’s stops in the red zone last season:

  • Alabama went for it on fourth down up 58-21 with four minutes left
  • South Carolina took a knee in the red zone at the end of the game
  • Kentucky had a field goal blocked with the Vols up 24-7 with 12 minutes left
  • Vanderbilt missed a field goal leading 17-7 early in the third quarter

And that’s it.

Opponents converted 41 of 45 red zone opportunities against the Vols last year, 91.1%, and only two of those four stops came in meaningful situations. That scoring percentage ranked 120th nationally last fall. Opponents scored touchdowns 30 times in those 45 trips; a 66.7% red zone touchdown percentage ranked 90th nationally.

(stats via SportSource Analytics)

As you might expect, the Vols were bad at this in 2017 too: 50 red zone visits, only five stops. Tennessee also gave up 35 touchdowns in those visits; 70% is Tennessee’s worst red zone touchdown percentage of the decade.

But it’s also a stat the Vols haven’t excelled at in a long time. In 2015 Tennessee held teams to a 56.1% touchdown percentage, but gave up seven touchdowns in eight visits against Oklahoma and Florida, setting a tone that was hard to forget. In 2014 Tennessee allowed only 34 red zone visits, but gave up points 32 times. You have to go back to teams with Fulmer’s final recruits on them to find more success: a 45.5% touchdown percentage in 2009, 52.1% with a 79.2% scoring percentage in 2010.

A note of interest for 2019: on offense, last year Mississippi State led the SEC in red zone touchdown percentage at 69.1%; BYU was slightly better at 69.2%. Those two teams don’t strike the same extreme fears as some of Tennessee’s recent non-conference and cross-divisional opponents, but both were incredibly efficient in the red zone.

If last year was about getting out of the basement, consider the progress available if Tennessee just moves toward average football in some of these key categories. Last season the Vols moved from rankings in the 120’s to rankings in the 80’s and 90’s in many categories. The median for turnovers forced last year was 19; Tennessee forced only 15. The median for red zone scoring percentage allowed was 83%, with a 60% touchdown percentage. If the Vols can just get from 91% and 67% to those average numbers, it can make a real difference in close games.

One big question for both turnovers and stops in the red zone: who are the playmakers on defense? The Vols will need more than Darrell Taylor and their sophomore corners to make a meaningful difference here.