Tennessee & Auburn: A Tale of Two Decades

It’s been ten years since the Vols played at Auburn, one of the best arguments for policy change in SEC scheduling. We faced the Tigers every year from 1956-1991, the series becoming Tennessee’s second-biggest rivalry during that time. Now we have to wait a decade to travel to each other’s place.

The last trip in 2008 remains an infamous one: trailing 14-12, the Vols’ final four possessions began at the Auburn 38, Tennessee 42, Auburn 46, and Tennessee 46. A field goal would have won it. But the Clawfense went three-and-out four times, gaining 12 yards in those 12 plays, and Auburn survived.

Tony Franklin, Auburn’s first-year offensive coordinator, would not: he was fired two weeks later with Tommy Tuberville on the hot seat. Phillip Fulmer elected to stay with Dave Clawson. But both head coaches would be out by season’s end, Fulmer a decade removed from his national championship, Tuberville just four years from Auburn’s undefeated season.

Tennessee won the hiring battle: Lane Kiffin promised to sing Rocky Top after beating Florida to our delight, while Gene Chizik was heckled on the runway. But Auburn won the war: Chizik hired Gus Malzahn to run the offense and signed a junior college quarterback named Cam Newton. While Tennessee struggled in Derek Dooley’s first season, Auburn won the national championship. And two years later when both Chizik and Dooley were on their way out, Auburn got their guy in Malzahn, while the Vols swung and missed on Charlie Strong before settling for Butch Jones.

The total damage: since 2009, Auburn is 82-43 with a national championship, a second BCS title game appearance, two straight New Year’s Six bowls and three SEC West titles in the Age of Saban. Tennessee is a dead even 59-59 with no trips to Atlanta, and hasn’t played in anything more prestigious than the Outback Bowl.

Malzahn is a fascinating case study, setting an impossibly high bar in 2010 and 2013. After that Auburn went 8-5, 7-6, 8-5, 10-2 before losing to Georgia and Central Florida in postseason last year, and now 4-2 off a preseason #9 ranking. Auburn’s defense has been remarkable so far this year, but Malzahn’s offense has been the opposite.

The Tigers are 91st in yards per play (5.38), besting only Arkansas in the SEC. The Vols, for reference, are 71st at 5.68. Tennessee has faced a pair of Top 20 yards-per-play-allowed defenses, Auburn three in the Top 25. (Stats via Sports Source Analytics)

But Auburn has lacked explosiveness against its entire schedule: just eight plays of 30+ yards in six games, 104th nationally and better than only seven teams who have played six games. And Auburn has only one run of 30+ yards so far this year.

The Tigers beat Washington in large part thanks to a 9-of-18 performance on third down. But since then, Auburn is a woeful 18-of-65 (27.7%). And as good as Auburn’s defense is in the red zone, the offense once again does the opposite: six of their 28 trips have ended with no points, and only 15 have reached the end zone. A red zone touchdown percentage of 53.57% is 107th nationally.

And so a decade after their last meeting on The Plains, when two storied programs made similar choices for similar reasons, the Vols and Tigers will meet tomorrow with frustration in the air once more. Jeremy Pruitt is Tennessee’s fourth attempt at a post-Fulmer answer in what is now Fulmer’s world once more. Gus Malzahn has really been the only answer for the Tigers in this decade, but his signature unit is struggling like never before. It would be fitting, perhaps, if Tennessee could reverse their own fortunes at Auburn’s expense. To do so, it’ll probably take something just as ugly as what we saw ten years ago…but that result would look mighty good on Jeremy Pruitt’s Vols right about now.

Tennessee Vols vs. Auburn Tigers: opportunities and threats

The official NCAA stats for both the Vols and the Tigers confirms that points are likely going to be at a premium this Saturday. Look for Tennessee to lean on the run game, Auburn’s defense to wreak havoc in the form of way too many tackles for loss, and hidden yards, field position, and turnovers to play a major role in the outcome.

Auburn’s Offense

Auburn’s offense appears to be doing well at not air-mailing the ball to the other team. Other than that, though, they’re struggling. Their passing offense is only 96th, and their running offense is only 78th, and they’re particularly bad in the red zone and on third and fourth down.

Tennessee’s Defense (after Georgia)

In contrast, Tennessee’s defense appears to be doing better than expected, and they are particularly good on third down. Then again, they’re bad in the red zone, but perhaps that and Auburn’s ineptitude in the same location washes out. Tennessee’s also not so good at intercepting passes so far this season, and with Auburn protecting against that so well, any gift through the air will be a surprise.

Opportunity: On balance, Tennessee should have an actual advantage over Auburn when the Tigers’ offense is on the field. They’ll need to make the most of it, because things are going to be much more difficult on the other side of the ball.

Auburn’s Defense

The Tigers’ defense is another story. They simply do not allow opponents to put many points on the board. They, too, are especially good on third down, they are ballhawks in the passing game, and although they are only average in actually getting sacks, they do create havoc in their opponents’ backfield in the form of tackles for loss.

Tennessee’s Offense (after Georgia)

The bad news for the Vols offense is that they’re not especially good at putting points on the board or at converting third downs. They are good at protecting against interceptions, though, so perhaps that balances out against the War Eagle Ball Hawks.

Trouble: Auburn’s defense is 15th in the nation in tackles for loss and Tennessee’s offense is 112th in TFLs allowed.

Opportunity: The Vols’ rushing offense isn’t yet awesome by any means, but it is somewhat capable, and if there’s a weakness in Auburn’s defense, it’s against the run.

Auburn’s Special Teams

Tennessee’s Special Teams (after Georgia)

Trouble: Auburn appears better positioned to win in the “hidden yards” category, as they have a good matchup when returning kicks and their punting numbers are better.

Auburn’s Turnovers and Penalties

Tennessee’s Turnovers and Penalties (after Georgia)

Threat: Tennessee’s turnover numbers are terrible, and Auburn’s are good, but we all know about the ongoing debate about how much of this is luck and how much is making your own luck, right?

Opportunity: Tennessee appears to be the more disciplined team in terms of not giving away yards in the form of penalties so far this season.

Overall

  • Tennessee’s defense should have an actual advantage over Auburn’s offense.
  • Tennessee’s best bet on offense against an intimidating Auburn defense appears to be in the run game. The biggest threat on offense is allowing too many tackles for loss.
  • Auburn appears to be better positioned to win the hidden-yards-on-special-teams game.
  • The Vols could make up some ground by committing fewer penalties than Auburn, but it could also be undone by losing the turnover battle.

Tennessee-Auburn statsy preview: Tigers by not 26

The Auburn Tigers kicked off the 2018 season with a solid win against No. 6 Washington, but after that, results have been mixed. They lost by one point to a ranked LSU team and lost by two touchdowns last week to an unranked Mississippi State team.

Meanwhile, unranked Tennessee is still trying to find a big win but is coming off a bye week. The two teams may be headed in two different directions, but Auburn still appears to be much closer to the goal than the Vols.

So let’s get to this week’s statsy preview. First, the predictions, and below them, the details.

Predictions

SPM: Auburn 26, Tennessee 13

Eye- and gut-adjusted: Auburn 28, Tennessee 17

Tennessee rushing yards: 120

Auburn rushing yards: 150

Tennessee passing yards: 150

Auburn passing yards: 180

Tennessee points: 17

Auburn points: 28

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 177.2 rushing yards per game, while Auburn is giving up 135.5 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is Auburn, is Florida, which is giving up 172.5 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 156 against them. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Auburn is West Virginia, which is allowing 120.8. Tennessee got 129 on the ground against West Virginia.

Looking at things from Auburn’s perspective, their run defense generally holds their opponents to significantly below their average.

Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Auburn is 120.

Auburn rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 158.0 rushing yards per game, while the Auburn run game is averaging 163.8 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is getting 162.2 yards per game on the ground, and they got 118 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 181.5 rushing yards per game and got 201 against Tennessee. I’m guessing Auburn will get about 150 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 182.8 passing yards per game, and Auburn is allowing 188.0. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is giving up 189.0 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 167 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia. They’re allowing 170.0 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 143 against them. My guess is that Tennessee will put up 150 passing yards this weekend.

Auburn passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 182.6 passing yards per game. Auburn is getting 200.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is getting 198.8 yards per game through the air, and they got 186 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is averaging 240.0 passing yards per game and got 190 against Tennessee. I’m going with Auburn putting up about 180 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 26.0 points per game, and Auburn is allowing 14.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is allowing 14.8 points per game, and Tennessee got 21 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia. They’re allowing 13.0 points per game, and Tennessee got 12 against them. My prediction is that Tennessee will score around 17 points against Auburn.

Auburn scoring

Tennessee is allowing 25.6 points per game. Auburn is averaging 28.7. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is averaging 16.5 points, and they got 0 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 34.0 points and got 47 against Tennessee. I’m going with Auburn putting up somewhere around 28 points against Tennessee.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

Left alone, the SPM says Auburn 26, Tennessee 13, a spread of -13.

With eyeball and gut adjustments, I’m going with Auburn 28, Tennessee 17, a spread of -11.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has a 21% chance of winning and the spread at -13.9.

The Vegas spread favors Auburn by between 15 and 16.5 (down from earlier this week when it was between 16.5 and 17), with an over/under of 47-47.5, which converts to something like Auburn 31, Tennessee 16.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols only a 13.5% chance of winning.

 

 

Auburn’s Defense May Not Believe in Trap Games

So the ingredients are there, right? Sleepy 11:00 am local kickoff, preseason Top 10 team sitting at a disappointing 4-2, offense looking sluggish…plus the underdog Vols coming off a bye, new head coach with plenty of experience against this particular opponent looking for his first big win.

We can talk ourselves into just about anything, of course. The quickest way to talk yourself back towards reality this weekend is the Auburn defense.

The Tigers have the best defense in the country in S&P+. Not great news for your upset dreams. Five past and future Tennessee opponents are currently in the Top 20 in S&P+ defense, including Kentucky (3rd!), Florida (11th), Alabama (18th), and Georgia (19th).

The Vols had limited success against Florida (when not turning it over) and Georgia, both of which have significantly better offenses than the Tigers at the moment. Auburn is 93rd in offensive S&P+, which might conjure hope of the Vols squeaking out a 13-10 upset. We’ll see if Tennessee’s defense can hold up if Auburn simply decides to run right at them all day. But on the other side of the ball, the Vols will need to be smart, clean, and hope for a big play or two to find enough points to be in the conversation.

The Tigers allow 4.68 yards per play, 18th nationally. It’s even more impressive considering they’ve faced three Top 25 teams in the first six weeks. And they’re 15th in turnovers forced, though four of their 12 came against Alabama State. But where Auburn’s defense really shines is the red zone.

Opposing teams have made 18 trips to the red zone against the Auburn defense. They’ve scored five touchdowns. Their touchdowns allowed percentage (27.78%) is not only the best in the nation, only four teams are allowing under 40%. Washington got inside the 20 six times and found the end zone once. LSU went three times and scored a single touchdown. Mississippi State: four times, one touchdown. That’s incredible.

This isn’t something Tennessee’s offense is particularly great at either, with 11 touchdowns in 18 red zone attempts (61.11%, 80th nationally). The Vols went 2-for-5 scoring red zone touchdowns against UTEP, 2-for-4 against the Gators, and didn’t take a single red zone snap against Georgia.

There’s some good news there, potentially, for the Vol offense: they’ve had success with explosive plays so far this year, with five passes of 50+ yards still good for seventh nationally after the bye week. It’s how the Vols found the end zone twice against Georgia, and should have before fumbling through the end zone against Florida. Auburn’s defense isn’t noteworthy in stopping explosive plays: the Tigers are 86th nationally in 20+ yard plays allowed, 85th in 20+ yard passing plays allowed. With Tennessee’s offense struggling in short yardage situations and Auburn’s defense so good in the red zone, big plays may be the best answer for the Vols on the plains.

2018 college football TV schedule for Vols fans: Week 7

Tuesday, Thursday, Friday

Once again, there’s not a lot of good options prior to Gameday this week.

Gameday

Saturday, October 13, 2018
Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON SLATE
Tennessee No. 21 Auburn 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN Live Go Vols!
No. 14 Florida Vanderbilt 12:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN DVR Top 25 Team
AFTERNOON SLATE
No. 7 Washington No. 17 Oregon 3:30 PM ABC, ESPN2 Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup
No. 2 Georgia No. 13 LSU 3:30 PM Channel Hop - Priority 1 Top 25 Matchup
EVENING SLATE
Missouri No. 1 Alabama 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Next and future opponent
No. 6 West Virginia Iowa State 7:00 PM Channel Hop Top 25 Team
No. 15 Wisconsin No. 12 Michigan 7:30 PM ABC, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup

 

This Saturday at noon on the SEC Network, the Vols take on the Auburn Tigers, who are suddenly looking vulnerable. This may not be the point at which these two particular ships pass in the night, but the distance between them appears to be growing smaller. There’s also an opportunity to get more data on Vanderbilt in this time slot, as the Commodores take on Florida. Do we hate Florida? Yes, we hate Florida.

The best game to watch in the 3:30 slot is No. 2 Georgia traveling to No. 13 LSU, but there’s also another Top 25 matchup between No. 7 Washington and No. 17 Oregon.

There are several channel-hop options in the evening slot, with next/future opponents Alabama and Missouri prior and opponent West Virginia both in action. There’s also a Top 25 matchup between No. 15 Wisconsin and No. 12 Michigan taking place in that time slot.

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

Date Away Home Time TV
Tue Oct 9 Appalachian State Arkansas State 8:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Thu Oct 11 Georgia Southern Texas State 7:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Thu Oct 11 Texas Tech TCU 7:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Fri Oct 12 No. 23 South Florida Tulsa 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Fri Oct 12 Air Force San Diego State 9:00 PM CBSSN
Fri Oct 12 Arizona Utah 10:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 13 Tennessee No. 21 Auburn 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 13 Minnesota No. 3 Ohio State 12:00 PM
Sat Oct 13 No. 14 Florida Vanderbilt 12:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 13 Akron Buffalo 12:00 PM
Sat Oct 13 Iowa Indiana 12:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 13 Nebraska Northwestern 12:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 13 Oklahoma State Kansas State 12:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 13 Rutgers Maryland 12:00 PM
Sat Oct 13 Toledo Eastern Michigan 12:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 13 Duke Georgia Tech 12:20 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 13 Louisville Boston College 12:30 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 13 UAB Rice 1:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 13 Southern Mississippi North Texas 2:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Oct 13 Troy Liberty 2:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Oct 13 Pittsburgh No. 5 Notre Dame 2:30 PM NBC
Sat Oct 13 Kent State Miami (OH) 2:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 13 Ball State Central Michigan 3:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Oct 13 Western Michigan Bowling Green 3:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 13 No. 2 Georgia No. 13 LSU 3:30 PM
Sat Oct 13 No. 7 Washington No. 17 Oregon 3:30 PM ABC, ESPN2
Sat Oct 13 Baylor No. 9 Texas 3:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 13 Michigan State No. 8 Penn State 3:30 PM
Sat Oct 13 No. 10 UCF Memphis 3:30 PM ABC, ESPN2
Sat Oct 13 No. 22 Texas A&M South Carolina 3:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 13 Army San Jose State 3:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 13 Marshall Old Dominion 3:30 PM
Sat Oct 13 Ohio Northern Illinois 3:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 13 Purdue Illinois 3:30 PM
Sat Oct 13 Temple Navy 3:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Oct 13 Western Kentucky Charlotte 3:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 13 New Mexico Colorado State 4:00 PM
Sat Oct 13 UNLV Utah State 4:00 PM
Sat Oct 13 Alabama State South Alabama 5:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Oct 13 New Mexico State Louisiana 5:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 13 UL Monroe Coastal Carolina 6:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 13 Missouri No. 1 Alabama 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 13 No. 16 Miami Virginia 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 13 No. 6 West Virginia Iowa State 7:00 PM
Sat Oct 13 Houston East Carolina 7:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Oct 13 Louisiana Tech UTSA 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 13 UCLA California 7:00 PM
Sat Oct 13 Virginia Tech North Carolina 7:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 13 No. 15 Wisconsin No. 12 Michigan 7:30 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 13 Middle Tennessee Florida Intl 7:30 PM
Sat Oct 13 Ole Miss Arkansas 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 13 Hawai'i BYU 10:15 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 13 No. 19 Colorado USC 10:30 PM FS1
Sat Oct 13 Boise State Nevada 10:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Oct 13 Wyoming Fresno State 10:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN

Updated projected win totals for the Vols after Week 6

The Vols were off this past weekend, but their past and future opponents were not, so let’s take a look at how those results might have impacted our expectations for the back half of the season for Tennessee.

My new expected win total:

  • This week: 5.0
  • Last week: 4.9
  • After Week 4: 4.55
  • After Week 3: 5.5

I have Alabama steady at 5%, Auburn down to 30%, Kentucky down to 30%, South Carolina and Missouri steady at 40%, Vanderbilt steady at 60%, and Charlotte steady at 95%.

Use the form below to calculate yours and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

  • Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
  • Beat ETSU, 59-3
  • Beat UTEP, 24-0
  • Lost to Florida, 47-21
  • Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
  • #21 Auburn, 12:00 PM SECN
  • #1 Alabama, TBD
  • S Carolina, TBD
  • Charlotte, TBD
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Vanderbilt, TBD

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 5-0 (3-0), 1st in Big 12, #6

  • Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
  • Beat YSU, 52-17
  • NC State, Canceled
  • Beat Kansas St, 35-6
  • Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
  • Beat Kansas, 38-22
  • Iowa State, TBD
  • Baylor, 7:00 PM ET FOX Sports 1
  • Texas, TBD
  • #17 TCU, TBD
  • #15 Oklahoma St, TBD
  • #5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 5-1 (3-0)

  • Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
  • Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
  • Beat VMI, 27-24
  • Beat Furman, 29-27
  • Beat Chattanooga, 17-14
  • Beat Gardner-Webb, 45-0
  • The Citadel, 2:00 PM ET
  • Wofford, 1:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • W Carolina, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • Mercer, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
  • Samford, 1:00 PM ET

UTEP Miners

Current record: 0-6 (0-2), 6th in C-USA – West

  • Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
  • Lost to UNLV, 52-24
  • Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
  • Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
  • Lost to UTSA, 30-21
  • Lost North Texas, 27-24
  • LA Tech, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • UAB, 7:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • Rice, 3:30 PM ET
  • MTSU, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
  • W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
  • Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+

Florida Gators

Current record: 5-1 (3-1), 2nd in SEC – East, #14

  • Beat Charleston So, 53-6
  • Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
  • Beat Colorado St, 48-10
  • Beat Tennessee, 47-21
  • Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
  • Beat #5 LSU, 27-19
  • Vanderbilt, TBD
  • #2 Georgia*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
  • Missouri, TBD
  • S Carolina, TBD
  • Idaho, TBD
  • Florida State, TBD

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 6-0 (4-0), 1st in SEC – East, #2

  • Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
  • Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
  • Beat MTSU, 49-7
  • Beat Missouri, 43-29
  • Beat Tennessee, 38-12
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 41-13
  • #6 LSU, TBD
  • Florida*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • #9 Auburn, TBD
  • UMass, TBD
  • Georgia Tech, TBD

The Vols’ future opponents

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 4-2 (1-2), 4th in SEC – West, #21

  • Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
  • Beat Alabama St, 63-9
  • Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
  • Beat Arkansas, 34-3
  • Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
  • Lost to Miss St, 23-9
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Ole Miss, TBD
  • Texas A&M, TBD
  • Georgia, TBD
  • Liberty, TBD
  • Alabama, TBD

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 6-0 (3-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1

  • Beat Louisville*, 51-14
  • Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
  • Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
  • Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
  • Beat Louisiana, 56-14
  • Beat Arkansas, 65-31
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • LSU, TBD
  • Miss St, TBD
  • The Citadel, TBD
  • Auburn, TBD

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 3-2 (2-2), 4th in SEC – East

  • Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
  • Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
  • Marshall, Canceled
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
  • Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
  • Beat Missouri, 37-35
  • Texas A&M, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Ole Miss, TBD
  • Florida, TBD
  • Chattanooga, TBD
  • Clemson, TBD

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 2-3 (1-1), 2nd in C-USA – East

  • Beat Fordham, 34-10
  • Lost to App St, 45-9
  • Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
  • Lost to UMass, 49-31
  • Lost to UAB, 28-7
  • W Kentucky, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • MTSU, 3:00 PM ET
  • Southern Miss, 2:00 PM ET
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Marshall, 2:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • FIU, 2:00 PM ET
  • FAU, 6:00 PM ET

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 5-1 (3-1), 2nd in SEC – East, #18

  • Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
  • Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
  • Beat Murray State, 48-10
  • Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
  • Beat S Carolina, 24-10
  • Lost to Texas A&M, 20-14
  • Vanderbilt, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Georgia, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • MTSU, TBD
  • Louisville, TBD

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 3-2 (0-2), 5th in SEC – East

  • Beat UT Martin, 51-14
  • Beat Wyoming, 40-13
  • Beat Purdue, 40-37
  • Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
  • Lost to South Carolina, 37-35
  • Alabama, TBD
  • Memphis, TBD
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • Florida, TBD
  • Vanderbilt, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Arkansas, 2:30 PM ET CBS

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 3-3 (0-2), 5th in SEC – East

  • Beat MTSU, 35-7
  • Beat Nevada, 41-10
  • Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
  • Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
  • Beat Tennessee St, 31-27
  • Lost to Georgia, 41-13
  • Florida, TBD
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • Arkansas, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Ole Miss, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD

Locks & Keys 6: Vols vs. BYE

The rumor mill hasn’t been kind to the Vols this week as there are whispers that freshman safety Trevon Flowers has a collarbone injury and is walking around campus in a sling after getting hurt in practice.

It seems even when Tennessee doesn’t play, it loses.

The Vols need to get healthy this week before the Auburn-Alabama-South Carolina gauntlet, but it appears the opposite is happening. The Vols hopefully used this off week to work on fundamentals, and the coaches needed to use it to get a head start on Auburn.

Believe it or not, the Tigers are beatable. Sure, UT should (and will) be double-digit underdogs at Jordan-Hare Stadium, but AU isn’t explosive. It’s defense is really, really good, but the offense isn’t going to scare anybody. This weekend’s game against Mississippi State will be a rugged tilt, and the Tigers could be banged-up heading into the game. Let’s look at just two things Tennessee should have done in the bye week.

KEYS

Develop the youngsters who look like possible difference-makers

It’s going to be interesting to see if there are any players we’ve not seen much of yet this year who can get on the field during the second half of the season. Star prospect linebacker JJ Peterson came in out-of-shape long after practice began, but the Vols would be thrilled if he was coming along and was able to provide valuable snaps.

Will that happen? If it does, we’ve not heard anything about it yet.

Beyond Peterson, though, there are some good, young players who’ve shown flashes this year. If they can emerge and get more consistent, Tennessee will be a better, more athletic, more talented team. Some of those guys are:

Linebackers Will Ignont and Quart’e Sapp. Ignont is a sophomore who is earning more and more trust and playing time. It doesn’t look like he’d always grade out well and isn’t always in the right place, but he plays fast and makes tackles. He just needs to be more consistent. A week after the rumors of Sapp leaving the sideline against Florida, he played his most snaps against Georgia and was a playmaker. It’s obvious the junior needs to be on the field. The Vols need to keep him there.

Of course, defensive backs Bryce Thompson, Alontae Taylor (and Flowers, if he’s healthy) upgrade the back end. They needed to spend the off week learning and playing faster. If Flowers is out, it’s time for Shawn Shamburger to get out of the doghouse and back on the field.

Defensive lineman Matthew Butler, wide receiver Jordan Murphy and running back Jeremy Banks are other guys who need to be more disciplined, get more consistent and earn snaps. The Vols need to be looking to the future while playing in the present.

Find important depth

Coach Jeremy Pruitt made a couple of position switches this week, moving fullback Ja’Quain Blakeley and tight end LaTrell Bumphus to the defensive line where UT needs depth and athleticism.

What if one of those guys stick and is able to provide snaps? They aren’t really contributing where they were, so it doesn’t hurt to try them there. Both are excellent athletes who need to work their way onto the field somewhere.

Will there be other guys emerge, too? UT hopes so.

LOCKS

Meh, we went 3-4 last week as the early-night games killed us. Thanks for nothing, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, BYU and Hawaii. You’d been good to us until last week, and this is the thanks we get? Thankfully, the Ohio State-Penn State under, Purdue and West Virginia saved us from total disaster.

We are at 19-16 ATS on the year. Yeah, that needs to be better. This week, we’re going 7-0.

  • Missouri -1.5 over South Carolina: This line has moved so much in the Tigers’ favor this week, and rightfully so. Yes, I know this is in Columbia, S.C., but Drew Lock and Co. are coming off a bye week and that offense will be clicking. They cover easy.
  • Alabama/Arkansas over 58: Alabama could hit this number on its own, even though the Hogs’ defense isn’t bad at all. It won’t go way over, but the Hogs will add some late points against UA’s third-team defense to go over.
  • Syracuse -3.5 over Pittsburgh: This definitely has letdown game written all over it after the Orange’s near-upset at Clemson a week ago. But the Panthers aren’t great, and Dino Babers’ team is solid and on the come-up. Syracuse wins this one by a touchdown or more.
  • LSU -2 over Florida: Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t understand this line at all. Both defenses are strong, but Feleipe Franks against that LSU secondary? Ugh. Tigers will win by double-digits in the Swamp.
  • Miami -13 over Florida State: If there’s one I’m not sure about out of these seven, it’s this one. But the Seminoles are awful, and Miami is resurgent with N’Kosi Perry at QB. Turnover chains jangle against Deondre Francois.
  • Ole Miss/Louisiana-Monroe under 75.5: Ole Miss may have the worst defense in the Power 5, but it isn’t bad enough to get trounced by Monroe. The Rebels are going to work on some things in this one that will slow things down a little. This one won’t approach the number.
  • California -2.5 over Arizona: Free money. Kevin Sumlin-Khalil Tate is a dreadful marriage, and the Wildcats just can’t score enough. Justin Wilcox still has things moving in the right direction at Berkeley even after last week’s bad showing against Oregon.

Inside the Numbers of Tennessee’s Running Game

It will not surprise you to find (via data from Sports Source Analytics) the Vols are still near the bottom in running the football in the first quarter: 46 carries for 74 yards, a robust 1.61 yards per carry. That first quarter average is 128th nationally (good news: Charlotte is 130th). The Vols are a not-great-but-not-terrible 78th nationally in rushing average overall (4.2 yards per carry); of note, that’s better than Auburn (4.17), among others. Tennessee averages 4.02 yards in the second quarter, 7.33 in the third (bolstered by Ty Chandler’s 81-yard touchdown), and back to 4.02 in the fourth. In our running theme (no pun intended) for this year, the ground game never achieves excellence, but becomes competent as the game goes on. But that is far from the truth in the first quarter.

When you look at each player’s overall stats, it seems more simple than it actually is: Ty Chandler has 40 carries for 247 yards (6.18 per), and Madre London has 36 for 205 (5.69). But Chandler had only four carries before getting hurt against West Virginia, and had a good-but-not-great 19-for-66 (3.47 per) against Florida. London had 11-for-66 against the Gators, but only six yards on three carries last week. Tim Jordan, who looked very much like the answer against West Virginia, has just 43 carries for 140 yards in the last four games. It’s tough when you’re trying to rotate carries among four backs. But none of them are getting the Vols off to a good start in the first quarter.

The Vols are also 24th nationally in carries on first down: 105 runs, 39 passes. If the desire is to make defenses expect the run early, it’s working fairly well when the Vols actually do throw it on first down: 28-of-39 for 407 yards (10.4 yards per attempt). A 71.8% completion percentage is 13th nationally on first down.

But a lot of the issues in the run game aren’t just about running early in the game or a series, but on third-and-short. Tennessee has repeatedly tried to muscle their way forward on 3rd-and-1, and the results haven’t been pretty. On 3rd-and-1-to-3, the Vols have 12 carries for 11 yards. Only five of those 12 runs have picked up the first down. I’ve found myself almost wishing for the Vols to be in 3rd-and-4 than 3rd-and-1, because they’ll at least give themselves more options. The numbers back this up too: on 3rd-and-4-to-6, the Vols have converted five first downs on nine passing attempts. Tennessee is more successful throwing the ball on third-and-medium than running it on third-and-short.

 

2018 college football TV schedule for Vols fans: Week 6

Thursday, Friday

There’s really not much worth watching before Saturday this week, unless you just need to see something because it’s football.

Gameday

Saturday, October 6, 2018
Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON SLATE
No. 19 Texas No. 7 Oklahoma 12:00 PM FOX Channel Hop - Priority Top 25 Matchup
Kansas No. 9 West Virginia 12:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN Channel Hop Past Opponent
Maryland No. 15 Michigan 12:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Team
No. 1 Alabama Arkansas 12:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN DVR - Channel Hop Future Opponent
Northwestern No. 20 Michigan State 12:00 PM FS1 Channel Hop Top 25 Team
Boston College No. 23 NC State 12:30 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Team
AFTERNOON SLATE
No. 5 LSU No. 22 Florida 3:30 PM CBS Channel Hop - Priority Past Opponent
Florida State No. 17 Miami 3:30 PM ABC, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Team
Iowa State No. 25 Oklahoma State 3:30 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Team
No. 4 Clemson Wake Forest 3:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Team
Arizona State No. 21 Colorado 4:00 PM PAC12 Channel Hop Top 25 Team
Indiana No. 3 Ohio State 4:00 PM FOX Channel Hop Top 25 Team
EVENING SLATE
No. 13 Kentucky Texas A&M 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN DVR Future Opponent
SMU No. 12 UCF 7:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Team
Nebraska No. 16 Wisconsin 7:30 PM BTN Channel Hop Top 25 Team
No. 10 Washington UCLA 7:30 PM FOX Channel Hop Top 25 Team
No. 8 Auburn Mississippi State 7:30 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN DVR Next Opponent
Vanderbilt No. 2 Georgia 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Future Opponent
No. 6 Notre Dame No. 24 Virginia Tech 8:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup
Utah No. 14 Stanford 10:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Team

 

The Vols are off this week, so it’s a good week for channel-hopping and talking and catching up with chores and projects and stuff. As far as the games go, the Red River Rivalry headlines the noon slot and could be an especially good one this year. You also get to root for West Virginia while you remind anyone within ear shot that more than half of the Vols’ opponents so far have been in the Top 10 at some point already this season. Woo.

The priority in the 3:30 slot is No. 5 LSU traveling to No. 22 Florida — Geaux Tigahs. And in the evening, we get to see a couple of future opponents as Auburn travels to Mississippi State and Kentucky goes to Texas A&M. Vanderbilt is also at Georgia, and that could be instructive as to our expectations for the Vols game against the Commodores.

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

Date Away Home Time TV
Thu Oct 4 Georgia State Troy 7:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Thu Oct 4 Tulsa Houston 8:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Fri Oct 5 Georgia Tech Louisville 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Fri Oct 5 Middle Tennessee Marshall 7:30 PM CBSSN
Fri Oct 5 Utah State BYU 9:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 6 No. 19 Texas No. 7 Oklahoma 12:00 PM FOX
Sat Oct 6 Kansas No. 9 West Virginia 12:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 6 Maryland No. 15 Michigan 12:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 6 No. 1 Alabama Arkansas 12:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 6 Northwestern No. 20 Michigan State 12:00 PM FS1
Sat Oct 6 Buffalo Central Michigan 12:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Oct 6 East Carolina Temple 12:00 PM ESPNN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 6 Eastern Michigan Western Michigan 12:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 6 Illinois Rutgers 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Oct 6 Missouri South Carolina 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 6 Tulane Cincinnati 12:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 6 Syracuse Pittsburgh 12:20 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 6 Boston College No. 23 NC State 12:30 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 6 TBD Sam Houston State 2:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Oct 6 Northern Illinois Ball State 3:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Oct 6 No. 5 LSU No. 22 Florida 3:30 PM CBS
Sat Oct 6 Florida State No. 17 Miami 3:30 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 6 Iowa State No. 25 Oklahoma State 3:30 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 6 No. 4 Clemson Wake Forest 3:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 6 Bowling Green Toledo 3:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 6 Iowa Minnesota 3:30 PM BTN
Sat Oct 6 Kansas State Baylor 3:30 PM FS1
Sat Oct 6 Miami (OH) Akron 3:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 6 Navy Air Force 3:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Oct 6 Ohio Kent State 3:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 6 San Diego State Boise State 3:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 6 South Alabama Georgia Southern 3:30 PM ESPN3
Sat Oct 6 South Florida UMass 3:30 PM
Sat Oct 6 Arizona State No. 21 Colorado 4:00 PM PAC12
Sat Oct 6 Indiana No. 3 Ohio State 4:00 PM FOX
Sat Oct 6 New Mexico UNLV 4:00 PM
Sat Oct 6 UL Monroe Ole Miss 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 6 Old Dominion Florida Atlantic 5:00 PM
Sat Oct 6 No. 13 Kentucky Texas A&M 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 6 SMU No. 12 UCF 7:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 6 Louisiana Texas State 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 6 UAB Louisiana Tech 7:00 PM
Sat Oct 6 UConn Memphis 7:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Oct 6 UTSA Rice 7:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Oct 6 Nebraska No. 16 Wisconsin 7:30 PM BTN
Sat Oct 6 No. 10 Washington UCLA 7:30 PM FOX
Sat Oct 6 No. 8 Auburn Mississippi State 7:30 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 6 Vanderbilt No. 2 Georgia 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 6 North Texas UTEP 7:30 PM
Sat Oct 6 No. 6 Notre Dame No. 24 Virginia Tech 8:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 6 Liberty New Mexico State 8:00 PM
Sat Oct 6 Washington State Oregon State 9:00 PM PAC12
Sat Oct 6 California Arizona 10:00 PM FS1
Sat Oct 6 Utah No. 14 Stanford 10:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 6 Colorado State San Jose State 10:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Oct 6 Fresno State Nevada 10:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 6 Wyoming Hawai'i 11:59 PM

Tennessee Vols statistical rankings after Georgia

When you compare Tennessee’s national rankings in all of the major NCAA stat categories for this year to this time last year, you see that the defense has improved, especially in some of the most important categories. On offense, the passing game is more reliable and the run game is slightly better than this time last year. And you might be surprised to find that the turnover numbers were basically just as bad after the Georgia game in 2017 as they have been so far in 2018.

Offense

Bottom line here, I think, is that if you compare After Georgia 2018 to After Georgia 2017, you see a lot more green this year. The passing game, while still not exactly jet-propelled, is at least fairly safe and efficient. Most everything else is basically about the same as last year at this time, except that Rushing Offense and Red Zone Offense are slightly improved.

Defense

This time last year, the only green for the defense came in a couple of quirky categories. Passing Yards Allowed looked great, but many would argue it was due to the run defense being so bad that no opponent in their right mind would ever choose to throw it against the Vols. Fourth down conversions are likely a very small sample set.

Aside from that, most things are much better so far this year for Tennessee, including the all-important categories of Rushing Defense, 3rd Down Defense, and First Downs Defense. There are still some things that need fixing and still a lot of room for improvement everywhere, but it’s beginning to look like things are actually getting better on this side of the ball.

Special Teams

The return game has fallen off since last season, especially for punts.

Turnovers and Penalties

I was a bit surprised to find that this isn’t really all that much different from this time last year. The turnover luck is terrible, but it was bad last year, too.