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The Vols are in the middle of The Gauntlet, but so far, many of their national stat rankings are holding up pretty well.
When they pass, they are good at it, but the Vols aren’t really putting up a lot of passing yards. Some of that is likely due to a steadfast devotion to failing on first downs. I’m wondering how many of those tackles for loss allowed come on those first downs.
Not yet elite, but not bad, either.
A big win for the Vols this weekend not only made you feel better about the team for a moment but also has an impact on what to expect going forward and when to expect it.
My new expected win total:
I have Alabama at 15% (down from 5%), Kentucky down to 45% from 30%, South Carolina and Missouri down to 50% from 40%, Vanderbilt down to 75% from 60%, and Charlotte steady at 95%.
Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:
Current record: 3-3 (1-2), 4th in the SEC East
Current record: 5-1 (3-1), 2nd in Big 12, #13
Current record: 6-1 (4-0)
Current record: 0-6 (0-2), 6th in C-USA – West
Current record: 6-1 (4-1), 1st in SEC – East, #11
Current record: 6-1 (4-1), 1st in SEC – East, #8
Current record: 4-3 (1-3), 6th in SEC – West
Current record: 7-0 (4-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1
Current record: 3-3 (2-3), 4th in SEC – East
Current record: 3-3 (2-1), 2nd in C-USA – East
Current record: 5-1 (3-1), 3rd in SEC – East, #14
Current record: 3-3 (0-3), 6th in SEC – East
Current record: 3-4 (0-3), 6th in SEC – East
A few more observations on this fine Sunday:
This was Tennessee’s biggest win as an underdog since Florida in 2001. Covers.com has the closing line from that night in The Swamp at +16.5. The line closed at +14.5 yesterday, just ahead of other classic upsets like 2003 Miami (+12.5) and 2004 Georgia (+13). The Vols were +7 against South Carolina in 2013. Obviously the Vols weren’t big underdogs in the 90’s, so other than Florida 2001 you have to go back to 1989 at UCLA (+15.5) to find a bigger upset win.
The Vols are 98th in yards per carry at 3.86 and the only SEC team under 4.00. One big run early did not heal the wounds of the first quarter: the Vols now have 52 carries for 116 yards in the opening stanza, with 2.23 yards per carry ranking 128th nationally. One thing the Vols are actually worse at than last year, so far: Tennessee gives up an average of eight tackles for loss per game, 120th nationally, up from 7.42 last season. (Stats via Sports Source Analytics)
Tennessee’s rushing production on first down isn’t as bad as you might think: 125 carries for 558 yards (4.46 per, 69th nationally). That average does drop to 3.84 yards per carry if you take away Ty Chandler’s 81 yard touchdown against UTEP.
Here’s a list of teams with fewer first down passing attempts than Tennessee (45): Coastal Carolina, Georgia Tech, Maryland, San Diego State, Navy, Air Force, Army, Georgia Southern. So yeah, your eyes aren’t deceiving you there. When the Vols have turned it loose on first down, they’ve typically gotten the desired result in catching the defense off-guard: 32-of-45 (71.1%, 12th nationally on first down), for 467 yards (10.4 ypa). Fifteen of those attempts have gone for 10+ yards, five of them for 25+. I’m not sure how much the Vols will seek to change this against Alabama, but it might be worth a look after that.
On third-and-short, the Vols still struggle to move the ball. When running on 3rd-&-1-to-3, Tennessee has 14 carries for 16 yards and only six first downs. 1.14 yards per carry is 127th nationally. Weirdly, the Vols are also 1-for-6 passing on third-and-short. So consider this:
That’s impressive and concerning at the same time. Open it up!
Speaking of which, here’s to Jarrett Guarantano: on 3rd-&-4-to-9, Guarantano is 19-of-24 (79.2%) for 248 yards (10.3 ypa) and 15 first downs. He’s also 16th nationally in overall yards per attempt (9.0).
At the midway point of the season, the Vols have 16 plays of 30+ yards. Last year they had 18 in the entire year.
We didn’t need it yesterday, and Auburn was the best red zone defense in the country coming into the game. But the Vols are now just 11-of-19 scoring touchdowns in the red zone this year; that’s 88th nationally. On the other side of the ball, Tennessee is one of just five teams nationally to surrender points on every red zone trip. Opponents are 17-for-17 against the Vols, with 11 touchdowns and six field goals. Plenty of room for improvement here.
The last time the Vols were +3 or better in turnovers against an FBS opponent: Kentucky last year, when the Vols were +4 and still lost. Some of the best wins of the Butch Jones era, as you might expect, came via huge turnover margins: 2016 Virginia Tech, 2016 Missouri, and 2015 Northwestern were all +4.
Quietly, Brent Cimaglia is 7-of-8 on field goals this year. The miss was the blocked kick yesterday. 87.5% is 14th nationally. The best percentage for Vol kickers this decade is Daniel Lincoln and Michael Palardy combining to go 15-of-18 (83.3%) in 2010.
It seemed like the Vols were penalized for a lot of little things yesterday, but Tennessee is still 20th nationally in penalty yards per game (42.5). The Vols have been relatively good at avoiding major 15-yard penalties this year. The flip side: Tennessee’s opponents average just 45.5 penalty yards per game, 107th nationally. The Vols aren’t giving or getting much help from the yellow flags.
After a late-game collapse made a close Georgia loss a virtual runaway a couple of weeks ago, Tennessee coach Jeremy Pruitt nearly was moved to tears talking about how much better his guys were getting when talking in the postgame press conference.
Perhaps expecting a little more emotion from Pruitt, the SEC Network crew caught up with the first-year Vols front man after Saturday’s resounding 30-24 signature victory over Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
But instead of getting misty-eyed, Pruitt talked about how much better his players were getting. He then took the opportunity on regional television to complain a little about Tennessee’s inability to finish games, referring to the Tigers’ late touchdown that allowed them to kick a potentially worrisome onsides kick. Afterward, in his coach’s show with Bob Kesling, he mentioned every assistant coach by name and talked about the unselfishness of some of his players to play out-of-position because of depth issues.
All three responses were vintage Pruitt.
On a week where negativity could reign against UGA, Pruitt stood up for his guys. After the Vols could trumpet so much happiness following what obviously was a huge win, Pruitt kept things grounded.
The buttons he’s pushing are working. In today’s Sunday Best — a column designed to point out the positives from the prior day’s game — there are tons of things to discuss. But it all boils down to one thing: the Vols are responding to Pruitt’s teaching methods, and the confidence they’re finally getting in themselves is showing on the field. Saturday, for the first time in 12 tries against a league foe, it showed up in the win column.
Improvement is something we’ve not seen much of over the tenures of Butch Jones and Derek Dooley before him. But Saturday was a start. Now, it’s just a matter of whether the Vols can capitalize. They’ve flipped the script on the season’s possibilities — a bowl game no longer is out of the question — but can they finish?
Remember, Jones led Tennessee to a win over a ranked South Carolina team at Neyland Stadium coming off a bye week in his first year as a head coach. UT couldn’t parlay that into a postseason appearance, losing the season-ender to Vanderbilt.
Pruitt knows the margin for error for this team is razor thin, so the teaching moments are vital.
So are the responding moments, and we finally got one of those Saturday, trumping a reeling Auburn team. Tennessee got AU at the right time, and, guess what? The Vols took advantage of it, erasing a halftime deficit against a team that was favored by double-digits.
Now that we’ve discussed the overarching theme of Sunday’s Best, let’s be a little more specific about some of the stuff that went right.
1. Jarrett Guarantano and the Incredible Leaping Vols
It’s been a long, hard road for redshirt sophomore Guarantano, going from highly regarded recruit to an ugly first few games as a starting quarterback a season ago to getting mauled this year and continuing to stand strong in the pocket.
All the while, he’s learned, he’s developed and he’s improved.
Saturday, we saw the fruit in a 21-of-32 performance for 328 yards and two touchdowns. Equally as important, he didn’t have a turnover. As a sub-bullet to this bullet, he also led UT to 10-of-19 in third-down conversions, and he had multiple strategically-placed balls downfield to his dynamic receiving corps.
They made him look good by catching them, too.
Tennessee’s most talented players are its receivers, and they dominated Auburn’s secondary in the win. Josh Palmer had three catches for 84 yards, Jauan Jennings awoke from his season-long slumber to finish with five grabs for 71 yards, and Marquez Callaway had two grabs for 55 yards. After vowing to try to get running back Ty Chandler more touches, it happened Saturday, as he had five grabs for 62 yards, including a big 42-yard touchdown strike.
It was a banner day for Guarantano, who has taken a lot of flak from Vols fans. Yet here he is, improving, learning, developing. Saturday, he was dominating.
2. Extra! Extra!
Not only did the Vols play a spotless, turnover-free game, they also wound up with three takeaways of their own. They needed every single one of them, too.
Bryce Thompson and Jonathan Kongbo grabbed interceptions — though on Kongbo’s, UT offensive coordinator Tyson Helton struggled with his play-calling and the Vols were forced to punt three plays later. Needing that game-changing play, though, Tennessee’s defense got it.
Moments after taking a stunning 20-17 lead to momentarily quiet the Jordan-Hare Stadium crowd, Tennessee pressured Jarrett Stidham, who fumbled the ball. After a scrum deep in AU territory, the ball squirted free from underneath a Tigers player into the hands of Tennessee freshman cornerback Alontae Taylor who wound up with an 8-yard touchdown.
The massive turnover made it 27-17, and that gave the Vols some breathing room.
Prior to the pair of picks, Tennessee was 106th nationally with just two interceptions this season, and the opportunistic plays had been lacking. There are still defensive issues with missed tackles and blown coverages, but you can cover a lot of that up with momentum-shifting plays, and that’s what the Vols did against Auburn.
3. Second-Half Response
The 448 Auburn yards you see in the box score isn’t pretty; that’s still too much [usually] to win. But you’ve got to give the Vols credit for some big-time halftime adjustments by Pruitt, defensive coordinator Kevin Sherrer and Co.
Give the Vols credit for executing them, too.
The Tigers were shut out after the break until their final drive, which made things interesting as they quickly gashed Tennessee with some big passing plays. It was a disappointing finish to an incredible defensive performance after halftime, and Pruitt didn’t let his guys skate on that, either.
Still, there are reasons to be excited about the way Tennessee looks on that side of the ball, overall. Hopefully, Jonathan Kongbo is OK because he was playing at a high level Saturday against the Tigers before going down with an injury. Alexis Johnson is UT’s most disruptive defender so far this season, and while the Vols wish he had another year, the senior’s development is encouraging.
The defensive front got after Stidham, forcing multiple mistakes. When they had to bow up and get off the field, they did on a couple of vitally important occasions, notably forcing the Tigers into a 54-yard missed field goal in a drive that could have shifted momentum.
Injuries and a lack of speed are big concerns for UT on that side of the ball, but the Vols are playing with heart, they’re making plays and they’re in position to make others. They’ve just got to do a much better job tackling. If that happens, this can close and be as surprising of a unit as John Jancek’s group wound up being in 2015.
4. You Get An Improvement! You Get An Improvement!
It’s all over the field, and that is encouraging.
We talked about Kongbo and Johnson, two guys who nobody thought much of entering this season. Instead, both are making major impacts, and that bodes well for the future of this defense, even though they’ll be graduating. It means kids are responding, and we’re seeing that, too.
Thompson and Taylor look like they’ll be manning the secondary for years to come, and Trevon Flowers was improving, too, before breaking his collarbone in practice last week.
Guarantano, Ty Chandler, Will Ignont, Quart’e Sapp, all are getting better. Saturday saw Nathan Niehaus plugged in at guard for an injured Jahmir Johnson, and he held his own against a vaunted Auburn front. Josh Palmer is playing confident football, and he’s making plays. Jennings is finally healthy and playing like he’s got that “dawg” in him again.
This team is beginning to take on a mentality, beginning to establish a hard-nosed mentality. Can it continue, though?
It’s a huge question that remains to be answered. There is still much football to be played, and the Vols need to split the games against South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt to get bowl-eligible. Honestly, it still probably shouldn’t be expected.
But it’s at least attainable. Saturday made that possible.
This team and this program are heading in the right direction, and Pruitt continues to press all the right buttons, even though he’s still learning how to call plays within the framework of a game, still learning how to handle internal situations, still learning how to balance practices, film study, rotations, adjustments.
The Vols are learning how to win games, and Pruitt and Co. are learning how to run their brand new program.
Saturday was progress for all in a huge, huge win.
So I allowed myself to dream this week, and went back to read what we wrote when Butch Jones and the 2013 Vols beat #11 South Carolina in his first season. Much has changed since then: the full buy-in language of five years ago reflected the exhaustion of trying to defend Derek Dooley the three years before that with no such victories to stand on. Five years later, maybe I’m a little wiser about too much weight too fast.
It struck me, reading that piece, that you can make a very good argument that the 2013 Gamecocks – #11 on that day, #4 at the end of the year – were the single best team Jones’ Vols ever beat. The win that was supposed to be first ended up, in some ways, never being topped.
You just never know. And in some ways, that should make us celebrate days like today even more.
If there is a good connection to that 2013 South Carolina game today, it was Tennessee’s wide receivers simply willing it to happen. Marquez North did it by himself back then. Today, Marquez Callaway, Jauan Jennings, and Josh Palmer played more snaps on the field at the same time than ever before. It’s as if Tennessee’s offense decided to ditch the idea of a dedicated slot receiver and just put its three best players on the field together. And boy, did it work: 10 catches for 210 yards, almost all of them some combination of impressive and critical.
What Tennessee did on third down today was stunning. There will be time later in the week and/or the year to talk about how we cannot keep living this way: 10-of-19 against a good-to-great defense like Auburn is an unreasonable expectation. Even more: on the go-ahead drive, the Vols converted 3rd-and-10, 3rd-and-2 after 2nd-and-14, 3rd-and-9, and 3rd-and-10 for a touchdown. What?
The last time Tennessee converted double-digit third downs: Josh Dobbs’ arrival against Alabama in 2014. There’s no need to grant asterisks when the opponent is Alabama, but the 11 conversions on that night were probably aided by the Tide’s early 27-0 lead. Today, all of them mattered to the final outcome. And it wasn’t just the one drive: the Vols converted 3rd-and-10 on the blocked field goal drive, 3rd-and-13 before connecting with Ty Chandler for a 42-yard touchdown later in the second quarter, 3rd-and-8 on the first drive of the second half, and 3rd-and-10 when running the clock down on their final possession before the kneel down. That’s seven conversions of 3rd-and-8 or longer. What?
Pulling the trigger on those seven conversions was Jarrett Guarantano, who quarterbacked the second half of the worst season in program history last fall. Not the first half with an overtime win over Georgia Tech and an almost in Gainesville, but the half with the Vols getting blown out by Missouri and Vanderbilt. And it’s not even that Guarantano was bad last year, it’s that he almost died every time he dropped back to pass.
I’m not sure how much better that part actually is, which is a credit to Guarantano: that dude stands in the pocket knowing he’s going to get rocked. But here’s what he did mostly from said pocket today: 21-of-32 for 328 yards (10.25 yards per attempt), two touchdowns, zero interceptions, W. The last quarterback to throw for 10+ yards per attempt against the Tigers was Baker Mayfield in the January 2017 Sugar Bowl. Before that it was Blake Sims in the 2014 Iron Bowl.
I think plenty of us thought there was a way to get this done today that included some of what we saw: +3 in turnovers, Auburn’s offense struggling (not early, but late?). But I don’t think any of us thought the recipe would include such a dominant performance in the passing game from the Vols. And what’s more, Tennessee had a field goal blocked, got no points out of a golden opportunity on Kongbo’s interception, and were the more penalized team for most of the day. Tennessee could’ve played better! That’s incredibly encouraging going forward. But they also won today, straight up.
So. The Vols go to 3-3 and put a bowl game back on the radar. A successful end to the season is what makes memories like this one really last; when the Vols failed against Vanderbilt five years ago, that South Carolina memory lost much of its power. Today’s win is plenty potent. But if Tennessee finds a way to get to six wins, it’ll transform from a building block to a bridge.
Tennessee is getting better; that much was evident in the second half against Georgia and was true far before the outcome was sealed today. But the Vols now appear to be good enough to have a chance to win against good teams, a happy acceleration of our expectations for this season. We all know what we’re getting into next week. But this week, this day, was incredibly important for Jeremy Pruitt and these Vols. These kids did a lot of losing last year, and some of them did a lot of almost the year before. To take all that after three 26-point losses in September and make it a winner on The Plains in October? It’s a big step forward for Jeremy Pruitt, and for Tennessee.
Go Vols.
It’s time for this week’s edition of the Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game. If you are wondering what that is exactly, you can find out everything you need to know here. Latest results are here.
Good luck!
It’s been ten years since the Vols played at Auburn, one of the best arguments for policy change in SEC scheduling. We faced the Tigers every year from 1956-1991, the series becoming Tennessee’s second-biggest rivalry during that time. Now we have to wait a decade to travel to each other’s place.
The last trip in 2008 remains an infamous one: trailing 14-12, the Vols’ final four possessions began at the Auburn 38, Tennessee 42, Auburn 46, and Tennessee 46. A field goal would have won it. But the Clawfense went three-and-out four times, gaining 12 yards in those 12 plays, and Auburn survived.
Tony Franklin, Auburn’s first-year offensive coordinator, would not: he was fired two weeks later with Tommy Tuberville on the hot seat. Phillip Fulmer elected to stay with Dave Clawson. But both head coaches would be out by season’s end, Fulmer a decade removed from his national championship, Tuberville just four years from Auburn’s undefeated season.
Tennessee won the hiring battle: Lane Kiffin promised to sing Rocky Top after beating Florida to our delight, while Gene Chizik was heckled on the runway. But Auburn won the war: Chizik hired Gus Malzahn to run the offense and signed a junior college quarterback named Cam Newton. While Tennessee struggled in Derek Dooley’s first season, Auburn won the national championship. And two years later when both Chizik and Dooley were on their way out, Auburn got their guy in Malzahn, while the Vols swung and missed on Charlie Strong before settling for Butch Jones.
The total damage: since 2009, Auburn is 82-43 with a national championship, a second BCS title game appearance, two straight New Year’s Six bowls and three SEC West titles in the Age of Saban. Tennessee is a dead even 59-59 with no trips to Atlanta, and hasn’t played in anything more prestigious than the Outback Bowl.
Malzahn is a fascinating case study, setting an impossibly high bar in 2010 and 2013. After that Auburn went 8-5, 7-6, 8-5, 10-2 before losing to Georgia and Central Florida in postseason last year, and now 4-2 off a preseason #9 ranking. Auburn’s defense has been remarkable so far this year, but Malzahn’s offense has been the opposite.
The Tigers are 91st in yards per play (5.38), besting only Arkansas in the SEC. The Vols, for reference, are 71st at 5.68. Tennessee has faced a pair of Top 20 yards-per-play-allowed defenses, Auburn three in the Top 25. (Stats via Sports Source Analytics)
But Auburn has lacked explosiveness against its entire schedule: just eight plays of 30+ yards in six games, 104th nationally and better than only seven teams who have played six games. And Auburn has only one run of 30+ yards so far this year.
The Tigers beat Washington in large part thanks to a 9-of-18 performance on third down. But since then, Auburn is a woeful 18-of-65 (27.7%). And as good as Auburn’s defense is in the red zone, the offense once again does the opposite: six of their 28 trips have ended with no points, and only 15 have reached the end zone. A red zone touchdown percentage of 53.57% is 107th nationally.
And so a decade after their last meeting on The Plains, when two storied programs made similar choices for similar reasons, the Vols and Tigers will meet tomorrow with frustration in the air once more. Jeremy Pruitt is Tennessee’s fourth attempt at a post-Fulmer answer in what is now Fulmer’s world once more. Gus Malzahn has really been the only answer for the Tigers in this decade, but his signature unit is struggling like never before. It would be fitting, perhaps, if Tennessee could reverse their own fortunes at Auburn’s expense. To do so, it’ll probably take something just as ugly as what we saw ten years ago…but that result would look mighty good on Jeremy Pruitt’s Vols right about now.
The official NCAA stats for both the Vols and the Tigers confirms that points are likely going to be at a premium this Saturday. Look for Tennessee to lean on the run game, Auburn’s defense to wreak havoc in the form of way too many tackles for loss, and hidden yards, field position, and turnovers to play a major role in the outcome.
Auburn’s offense appears to be doing well at not air-mailing the ball to the other team. Other than that, though, they’re struggling. Their passing offense is only 96th, and their running offense is only 78th, and they’re particularly bad in the red zone and on third and fourth down.
In contrast, Tennessee’s defense appears to be doing better than expected, and they are particularly good on third down. Then again, they’re bad in the red zone, but perhaps that and Auburn’s ineptitude in the same location washes out. Tennessee’s also not so good at intercepting passes so far this season, and with Auburn protecting against that so well, any gift through the air will be a surprise.
Opportunity: On balance, Tennessee should have an actual advantage over Auburn when the Tigers’ offense is on the field. They’ll need to make the most of it, because things are going to be much more difficult on the other side of the ball.
The Tigers’ defense is another story. They simply do not allow opponents to put many points on the board. They, too, are especially good on third down, they are ballhawks in the passing game, and although they are only average in actually getting sacks, they do create havoc in their opponents’ backfield in the form of tackles for loss.
The bad news for the Vols offense is that they’re not especially good at putting points on the board or at converting third downs. They are good at protecting against interceptions, though, so perhaps that balances out against the War Eagle Ball Hawks.
Trouble: Auburn’s defense is 15th in the nation in tackles for loss and Tennessee’s offense is 112th in TFLs allowed.
Opportunity: The Vols’ rushing offense isn’t yet awesome by any means, but it is somewhat capable, and if there’s a weakness in Auburn’s defense, it’s against the run.
Trouble: Auburn appears better positioned to win in the “hidden yards” category, as they have a good matchup when returning kicks and their punting numbers are better.
Threat: Tennessee’s turnover numbers are terrible, and Auburn’s are good, but we all know about the ongoing debate about how much of this is luck and how much is making your own luck, right?
Opportunity: Tennessee appears to be the more disciplined team in terms of not giving away yards in the form of penalties so far this season.
The Auburn Tigers kicked off the 2018 season with a solid win against No. 6 Washington, but after that, results have been mixed. They lost by one point to a ranked LSU team and lost by two touchdowns last week to an unranked Mississippi State team.
Meanwhile, unranked Tennessee is still trying to find a big win but is coming off a bye week. The two teams may be headed in two different directions, but Auburn still appears to be much closer to the goal than the Vols.
So let’s get to this week’s statsy preview. First, the predictions, and below them, the details.
SPM: Auburn 26, Tennessee 13
Eye- and gut-adjusted: Auburn 28, Tennessee 17
Tennessee rushing yards: 120
Auburn rushing yards: 150
Tennessee passing yards: 150
Auburn passing yards: 180
Tennessee points: 17
Auburn points: 28
Tennessee is averaging 177.2 rushing yards per game, while Auburn is giving up 135.5 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is Auburn, is Florida, which is giving up 172.5 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 156 against them. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Auburn is West Virginia, which is allowing 120.8. Tennessee got 129 on the ground against West Virginia.
Looking at things from Auburn’s perspective, their run defense generally holds their opponents to significantly below their average.
Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Auburn is 120.
The Tennessee defense is allowing 158.0 rushing yards per game, while the Auburn run game is averaging 163.8 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is getting 162.2 yards per game on the ground, and they got 118 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 181.5 rushing yards per game and got 201 against Tennessee. I’m guessing Auburn will get about 150 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.
Tennessee is averaging 182.8 passing yards per game, and Auburn is allowing 188.0. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is giving up 189.0 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 167 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia. They’re allowing 170.0 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 143 against them. My guess is that Tennessee will put up 150 passing yards this weekend.
The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 182.6 passing yards per game. Auburn is getting 200.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is getting 198.8 yards per game through the air, and they got 186 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is averaging 240.0 passing yards per game and got 190 against Tennessee. I’m going with Auburn putting up about 180 passing yards against Tennessee.
Tennessee is averaging 26.0 points per game, and Auburn is allowing 14.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is allowing 14.8 points per game, and Tennessee got 21 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia. They’re allowing 13.0 points per game, and Tennessee got 12 against them. My prediction is that Tennessee will score around 17 points against Auburn.
Tennessee is allowing 25.6 points per game. Auburn is averaging 28.7. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is averaging 16.5 points, and they got 0 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 34.0 points and got 47 against Tennessee. I’m going with Auburn putting up somewhere around 28 points against Tennessee.
Left alone, the SPM says Auburn 26, Tennessee 13, a spread of -13.
With eyeball and gut adjustments, I’m going with Auburn 28, Tennessee 17, a spread of -11.
Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has a 21% chance of winning and the spread at -13.9.
The Vegas spread favors Auburn by between 15 and 16.5 (down from earlier this week when it was between 16.5 and 17), with an over/under of 47-47.5, which converts to something like Auburn 31, Tennessee 16.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols only a 13.5% chance of winning.
So the ingredients are there, right? Sleepy 11:00 am local kickoff, preseason Top 10 team sitting at a disappointing 4-2, offense looking sluggish…plus the underdog Vols coming off a bye, new head coach with plenty of experience against this particular opponent looking for his first big win.
We can talk ourselves into just about anything, of course. The quickest way to talk yourself back towards reality this weekend is the Auburn defense.
The Tigers have the best defense in the country in S&P+. Not great news for your upset dreams. Five past and future Tennessee opponents are currently in the Top 20 in S&P+ defense, including Kentucky (3rd!), Florida (11th), Alabama (18th), and Georgia (19th).
The Vols had limited success against Florida (when not turning it over) and Georgia, both of which have significantly better offenses than the Tigers at the moment. Auburn is 93rd in offensive S&P+, which might conjure hope of the Vols squeaking out a 13-10 upset. We’ll see if Tennessee’s defense can hold up if Auburn simply decides to run right at them all day. But on the other side of the ball, the Vols will need to be smart, clean, and hope for a big play or two to find enough points to be in the conversation.
The Tigers allow 4.68 yards per play, 18th nationally. It’s even more impressive considering they’ve faced three Top 25 teams in the first six weeks. And they’re 15th in turnovers forced, though four of their 12 came against Alabama State. But where Auburn’s defense really shines is the red zone.
Opposing teams have made 18 trips to the red zone against the Auburn defense. They’ve scored five touchdowns. Their touchdowns allowed percentage (27.78%) is not only the best in the nation, only four teams are allowing under 40%. Washington got inside the 20 six times and found the end zone once. LSU went three times and scored a single touchdown. Mississippi State: four times, one touchdown. That’s incredible.
This isn’t something Tennessee’s offense is particularly great at either, with 11 touchdowns in 18 red zone attempts (61.11%, 80th nationally). The Vols went 2-for-5 scoring red zone touchdowns against UTEP, 2-for-4 against the Gators, and didn’t take a single red zone snap against Georgia.
There’s some good news there, potentially, for the Vol offense: they’ve had success with explosive plays so far this year, with five passes of 50+ yards still good for seventh nationally after the bye week. It’s how the Vols found the end zone twice against Georgia, and should have before fumbling through the end zone against Florida. Auburn’s defense isn’t noteworthy in stopping explosive plays: the Tigers are 86th nationally in 20+ yard plays allowed, 85th in 20+ yard passing plays allowed. With Tennessee’s offense struggling in short yardage situations and Auburn’s defense so good in the red zone, big plays may be the best answer for the Vols on the plains.
