Sunday Best: Tennessee vs. Charlotte; A Defensive Stand

 

This is going to be short and sweet.

The first reason for that is there simply wasn’t much about which to be excited in a lackluster 14-3 win over Conference USA also-ran Charlotte that looked like neither the players nor the coaches wanted to be in Neyland Stadium. Secondly, you probably don’t want to read too much about the game against the 49ers. Heck, you may have even decided to skip the game and enjoy a beautiful fall Saturday with your family instead.

It would have been a good one to sit out, that’s for sure.

But, as most coaches say, you never apologize for a win. Tennessee got its fourth on Saturday, even though it was hard to feel any warm-and-fuzzies at all from it. They still have to somehow get two of the final three to get bowl-eligible the traditional way.

That seems hard when you consider Kentucky is rugged, good on both lines and has a star pass-rusher in Josh Allen and stud running back in Benny Snell who will give the Vols fits. Missouri is an absolutely horrid matchup nightmare for Tennessee with Drew Lock and a dynamic passing game that torched Florida on Saturday. And while Vanderbilt looks like the most winnable, the Commodores have won two straight against UT and will be at home in Nashville.

Yes, Saturday sucked. But it may just be the last time this Tennessee team gets to experience a win this year. There are certainly no guarantees from here on.

So, today’s column looks at some positives [regardless of how difficult they are to find]. We’ll give a nod to the past as well as the future.

First of all, let’s look back. To appreciate where you hope you’re going, you have to embrace [or at least understand] where you’ve been. Kyle Phillips, Shy Tuttle and Todd Kelly Jr. have played a lot of football for Tennessee over the past four years, and while they certainly aren’t elite SEC players, they’ve had some good moments in orange and white, even though a lot of folks see them as part of awful defensive issues of the past few years.

They had a nice game against Charlotte, which was good to see. Those are all seniors, and this will be their last run in Knoxville, so to see a guy like Phillips — a phenomenal kid from an extraordinary family — have a game where he got four tackles, a sack and two tackles for a loss is nice to see. Defensive tackle Tuttle added four more tackles, and Kelly Jr. had seven.

For TKJr., it was extra special. He had a scary situation this offseason that called into question his health and some other things, and it was obvious in the early stages of the season when he couldn’t break into the lineup that he was never going to be the same player he was when he arrived on campus as a highly coveted recruit who was offered by everybody from Alabama to Georgia to USC to Ohio State. The only real reason he’s on the field is because of injuries to Trevon Flowers and Micah Abernathy.

But he responded on Saturday with his best outing of the year. The Vols need the more athletic Flowers and the steady Abernathy back soon, and they need the light to come on quickly for Shawn Shamburger, but TKJr. was needed on Saturday, and he responded.

That’s good for everybody to see.

From a future standpoint, you almost had to wonder what was going through Alontae Taylor’s head as he drew his second targeting penalty of the season. With him out, UT’s already depleted secondary got slimmer, and Marquill Osborne had a frustrating injury in relief of the true freshman. But the other freshman CB — Bryce Thompson — had a big game.

He continued to flash, getting to Miami transfer quarterback Evan Shirreffs for a sack and then picking off Shirreffs at the end of the game to seal the win.

It’s sad that the Vols needed big defensive plays in this one, but they absolutely did. With so many offensive line issues — problems that don’t look fixable this season — the loss of Ty Chandler, who was banged up and had very limited snaps, and the ineffectiveness of quarterback Jarrett Guarantano and play-caller Tyson Helton, the Vols needed a big-time performance from their defense.

That side of the ball rose to the occasion all afternoon long.

Without a win over Charlotte, there was zero chance of a bowl game. But UT won — no matter how hideously — to set up at least an outside shot to get bowl-eligible. You can poo-poo making it at 6-6 or even 5-7 all you want to, but the young kids need all the practice they can get, and the Jeremy Pruitt era needs to end the first season with some positivity.

It would be good for recruiting, it would be good for player development, and it also would be good for some of these seniors who endured last year’s 4-8 debacle and the topsy-turvy Butch Jones era and end up winners.

There is a long, long way to go before we can call them that. No matter what happens the rest of the way, this group of outgoing players aren’t going to be remembered the way we thought they would when they were recruited and part of quality, highly-ranked recruiting classes.

Blame whoever you want to for that, but the evidence remains that UT is the least-talented team in the SEC. It is what it is, and if the Vols can make a bowl game this year, it’ll be because of that Auburn win and because they stole a couple down the stretch.

If you don’t beat the 49ers, none of that is possible.

It still is, even if it was very, very ugly.

Your Gameday Gameplan: Tennessee-Charlotte

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the 3-5 (1-4) Tennessee Vols hosting the 4-4 (3-2) Charlotte 49ers at 4:00 on the SEC Network Alternate channel. Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Vols fans. Where and when to find the Vols game on TV, what other games to watch, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

The best other games for Vols fans to watch today

Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated just for Vols fans:

Saturday, November 3, 2018
Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON SLATE
Nebraska No. 10 Ohio State 12:00 PM FOX Channel Hop Top 25 Team
No. 19 Syracuse Wake Forest 12:00 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Team
No. 20 Texas A&M Auburn 12:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Channel Hop - Priority 1 Former Opponent
AFTERNOON SLATE
No. 13 West Virginia No. 17 Texas 3:30 PM FOX Channel Hop Former Opponent
No. 6 Georgia No. 9 Kentucky 3:30 PM CBS DVR, Watch the Score For the SEC East
No. 14 Penn State No. 5 Michigan 3:45 PM ESPN, WatchESPN DVR, Watch the Score Top 25 Matchup
Charlotte Tennessee 4:00 PM SECN ALT Live Go Vols!
Missouri No. 11 Florida 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN DVR, Watch the Score Top 25 Team
EVENING SLATE
No. 1 Alabama No. 3 LSU 8:00 PM CBS Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup

 

And here’s a searchable version of the entire college football TV schedule for the day:

Date Away Home Time TV
Fri Nov 2 Pittsburgh No. 25 Virginia 7:30 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Fri Nov 2 Western Kentucky Middle Tennessee 8:00 PM CBSSN
Fri Nov 2 Colorado Arizona 10:30 PM FS1
Sat Nov 3 Louisville No. 2 Clemson 12:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 Nebraska No. 10 Ohio State 12:00 PM FOX
Sat Nov 3 No. 19 Syracuse Wake Forest 12:00 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 No. 20 Texas A&M Auburn 12:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 No. 24 Iowa State Kansas 12:00 PM
Sat Nov 3 Air Force Army 12:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 3 Central Michigan Eastern Michigan 12:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 3 Memphis East Carolina 12:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 Michigan State Maryland 12:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 Oklahoma State Baylor 12:00 PM FS1
Sat Nov 3 Rutgers Wisconsin 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Nov 3 South Carolina Ole Miss 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 Georgia Tech North Carolina 12:15 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 San Jose State Wyoming 2:00 PM
Sat Nov 3 Texas State Georgia State 2:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 3 Georgia Southern UL Monroe 3:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 3 Marshall Southern Mississippi 3:00 PM
Sat Nov 3 South Alabama Arkansas State 3:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 3 No. 13 West Virginia No. 17 Texas 3:30 PM FOX
Sat Nov 3 No. 6 Georgia No. 9 Kentucky 3:30 PM CBS
Sat Nov 3 Florida State No. 21 NC State 3:30 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 No. 16 Iowa Purdue 3:30 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 Kansas State TCU 3:30 PM FS1
Sat Nov 3 Liberty UMass 3:30 PM
Sat Nov 3 Louisiana Troy 3:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 3 Minnesota Illinois 3:30 PM BTN
Sat Nov 3 Navy Cincinnati 3:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 Tulane South Florida 3:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 3 UTEP Rice 3:30 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 3 No. 14 Penn State No. 5 Michigan 3:45 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 No. 22 Boston College Virginia Tech 3:45 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 Charlotte Tennessee 4:00 PM
Sat Nov 3 Missouri No. 11 Florida 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 No. 15 Utah Arizona State 4:00 PM
Sat Nov 3 Alcorn State New Mexico State 4:00 PM
Sat Nov 3 Appalachian State Coastal Carolina 5:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 3 Duke Miami 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 Houston SMU 7:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 UConn Tulsa 7:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 3 No. 4 Notre Dame Northwestern 7:15 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 Louisiana Tech No. 18 Mississippi State 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 Florida Atlantic Florida Intl 7:30 PM
Sat Nov 3 UCLA Oregon 7:30 PM FOX
Sat Nov 3 UTSA UAB 7:30 PM
Sat Nov 3 No. 1 Alabama No. 3 LSU 8:00 PM CBS
Sat Nov 3 No. 7 Oklahoma Texas Tech 8:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 Stanford Washington 9:00 PM PAC12
Sat Nov 3 USC Oregon State 10:00 PM FS1
Sat Nov 3 BYU Boise State 10:15 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 San Diego State New Mexico 10:15 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 No. 23 Fresno State UNLV 10:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 3 California No. 8 Washington State 10:45 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 Utah State Hawai'i 11:59 PM

 

GRT games and contests

While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.

GRT game-week audio

Here’s Will’s regular Friday appearance with Josh Ward and Will West on WNML’s Sports 180:

Pre-game prep

And to catch up on your pre-game reading, have a look at our game preview posts from earlier this week:

Go Vols!

Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game: Charlotte edition

It’s time for this week’s edition of the GRT Guessing Game. If you are new here and have no idea what this is all about, you can find out everything you need to know here. Last week’s results are here.

Let’sa go!

  1. Submit your answers to our three questions below.
  2. Click the “Submit” button.
  3. Copy and paste your answers in the comments below.

Good luck!

Locks & Keys Week 10: No Room For Error

At this point, I feel like Tennessee is going to struggle to make a bowl game. But that’s not to say the Vols can’t.

When you have a game like they had against South Carolina where you’ve got myriad opportunities to win and you can’t come through with the W, it gives you an ominous feeling about the rest of the year.

The Vols should come away with the home win this weekend against Charlotte, even if Tim Jordan and Ty Chandler are banged-up and UT is going to nurse some injuries. If that happens, you look at needing to win two of three remaining games against Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt.

Everybody knows UK’s story, and there’s no way you can predict a win against the ‘Cats, even if they’ve not blown everybody’s socks off. They’re still a one-loss team and a top-10 team in the country. They win with defense and running back Benny Snell, and they’re a bad matchup for the Vols because they’re so good along both lines of scrimmage. Tennessee can win that game at home, but the Vols also shouldn’t cry if UK gets banged up against Georgia this weekend.

That leaves Mizzou and Vanderbilt. In the game against the Tigers, UT will be at home, and that may be the worst remaining matchup, thanks to quarterback Drew Lock. He hasn’t had a big season, but he’s got a big arm, and Tennessee has been susceptible to pass-happy teams. Tennessee desperately needs injured safety Trevon Flowers back by then. The Vols match up well against the Commodores, but Kyle Shurmur torched them the past two years. With Ke’Shawn Vaughn looking like a budding star, that’s going to be a challenge for UT. Getting Flowers back will be huge.

KEYS

Play the young guys

Everybody was excited to see Jeremy Banks get a lot of run with the linebackers on Saturday after his move there prior to the South Carolina game, but then Chandler and Jordan get hurt, and coach Jeremy Pruitt has him back at running back this week.

Banks is going to help this team as a starter down the road somewhere, and we need to see him get extended looks this weekend. Maybe on both sides of the ball (though I doubt that will happen).

JJ Peterson has seen only special teams action so far, but it’s time to get him on the defense and see if he can help this team on that side of the ball for the stretch run or if he’s a redshirt candidate. He was UT’s best commitment of the first Pruitt class, but the time has come to make the decision if he helps now or down the road.

John Mincey needs an extended look on the defensive line, especially considering Tennessee needs some answers there next season with so many departing seniors. I want to see receiver Cedric Tillman get a few targets. Guys like Kurott Garland and Greg Emerson technically could even get a few snaps and redshirt. So could quarterback JT Shrout, whom everybody wants to see.

Can those players get extended run and UT win? We’ll see.

Don’t let ’em hang around

You may laugh about a team like the Charlotte 49ers hanging around at Neyland Stadium.

Don’t.

This is a bad football team, but it’s one that played better recently, losing by one score to MTSU and beating Southern Miss. The last time we laughed about a team like this coming to UT and hanging around, the Vols were lucky to beat UMass last year.

This Tennessee team that plays on Saturday won’t be the one it trotted out against Alabama or South Carolina. It will be missing some key players it tries to rest before the important final three games. The guys who go out there need to take care of business from the jump.

Take shots

There is nothing wrong with the Vols’ game plan against South Carolina. It worked offensively, after all.

They dinked and dunked down the field, using the horizontal passing game with swings to running backs and receivers to help open up a decent running game. That’s all fine and good against similar teams.

But UT needs to open it up against Charlotte. The dynamic downfield passing attack beat Auburn, and the Vols may need it in other games this year, particularly next week against Kentucky, whose defense is too good to just let you go up and down the field.

Who knows if Jarrett Guarantano is completely healthy or how much he’ll play, but whoever is under center needs to test the Niners downfield all day.

No major injuries

Again, with basically no depth, the rest of this season is going to be an all-hands-on-deck situation if the Vols are going to have any chance of going to the postseason. Technically, UT could make a bowl at 5-7, and this is actually a year the Vols would need to take that with so much youth. But hopefully, they can get to the magic six-win window.

Is it sad we’re hoping for six wins again? Yes, it is. But it does feel like those days are coming to an end under Pruitt. This year is what it is.

The Vols can’t afford to suffer any major injuries like one to a quarterback, Jauan Jennings, Marquez Callaway, Daniel Bituli, Bryce Thompson, Alontae Taylor or Nigel Warrior. They need to keep those dudes healthy at all costs and win this game.

Prediction: It’s going to be ugly, but Tennessee will win relatively easily. Vols 34-13

LOCKS

I continued to limp last week to a 3-4 record, falling to 27-29 ATS this year [which pretty much mirrors the pick-em league I’m in]. After two really good years of picking games, this season, it just hasn’t been there. We’ll try to get back on track this week. We need a good 6-1 or 5-2 week to surge ahead.

I’d like to promise you it will be this week. The good news is that I’m 8-1 ATS in picking the MACtion and other early-week games so far. Maybe that’s the sign of a turnaround. Or maybe it’s just setting me up for failure. I like so many games this week, and that scares me. Let’s get to the picks.

  1. MTSU -13.5 over Western Kentucky: In the past few seasons, this has been a rivalry game. But the Hilltoppers are awful this season with just one win. MTSU isn’t the same high-powered offense it’s been in recent years, but the Raiders still have enough of it to cover.
  2. Georgia -9 over Kentucky: The Wildcats are a very nice story, and everybody should be excited about watching this team at home in such a huge game with the SEC East on the line. But the Bulldogs are still the cream of the SEC East, and UK doesn’t have the offensive horses to hang.
  3. Florida -6 over Missouri: I don’t understand this line at all, especially with the Gators at home coming off a frustrating better-than-it-looked loss against Georgia. They will take care of business against Mizzou.
  4. Boston College -2.5 over Virginia Tech: Did anybody see this Hokies defense against the run vs. Georgia Tech? Now they have to go against A.J. Dillon? Yes, this game is in Blacksburg. No, it won’t matter.
  5. USC -16.5 over Oregon State: With JT Daniels now getting to play against perhaps the worst Power 5 defense in the nation, expect the Trojans to get better in a hurry.
  6. California – Washington State over 50: Never bet the under in a game with a Mike Leach-coached team. I feel like this should be a maxim, even with this decent Wazzu D.
  7. West Virginia +2 over Texas: This game is in Austin, and it’s not going to be easy. But I like Will Grier against the struggling ‘Horns secondary.

2018 college football TV schedule for Vols fans: Week 10

Friday

Friday, November 2, 2018
Away Home Time TV How Why
Pittsburgh No. 25 Virginia 7:30 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Team

 

Hey, it’s football.

Gameday

Saturday, November 3, 2018
Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON SLATE
Nebraska No. 10 Ohio State 12:00 PM FOX Channel Hop Top 25 Team
No. 19 Syracuse Wake Forest 12:00 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Team
No. 20 Texas A&M Auburn 12:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Channel Hop - Priority 1 Former Opponent
AFTERNOON SLATE
No. 13 West Virginia No. 17 Texas 3:30 PM FOX Channel Hop Former Opponent
No. 6 Georgia No. 9 Kentucky 3:30 PM CBS DVR, Watch the Score For the SEC East
No. 14 Penn State No. 5 Michigan 3:45 PM ESPN, WatchESPN DVR, Watch the Score Top 25 Matchup
Charlotte Tennessee 4:00 PM SECN ALT Live Go Vols!
Missouri No. 11 Florida 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN DVR, Watch the Score Top 25 Team
EVENING SLATE
No. 1 Alabama No. 3 LSU 8:00 PM CBS Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup

 

There are a lot of great games this weekend. The noon slate starts off a bit slow, but you can warm up with a contest between former opponent Auburn and Texas A&M on ESPN.

The Vols game against Charlotte is on the SEC Network Alternate channel at 4:00, but there are a lot of other terrific games in the afternoon time slot, so be prepared to either work your DVR overtime if you absolutely must watch every minute of the Tennessee game or to channel hop like crazy. The most important other game is a Top 10 matchup on CBS between No. 9 Kentucky and No. 6 Georgia for the SEC East. We get Kentucky next week. But there’s also a Top 15 matchup between No. 5 Michigan and No. 14 Penn State on ESPN. You can also keep an eye on No. 13 (and former opponent) West Virginia against No. 17 Texas. And as if that wasn’t enough, there’s also a game between future opponent Missouri against former opponent No. 11 Florida on the SECN at 4:00. Whew. But most of all, Go Vols. It could be an unexpected fight.

And then the evening features a huge game between No. 1 Alabama and No. 3 LSU on CBS. Fun!

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

Date Away Home Time TV
Fri Nov 2 Pittsburgh No. 25 Virginia 7:30 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Fri Nov 2 Western Kentucky Middle Tennessee 8:00 PM CBSSN
Fri Nov 2 Colorado Arizona 10:30 PM FS1
Sat Nov 3 Louisville No. 2 Clemson 12:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 Nebraska No. 10 Ohio State 12:00 PM FOX
Sat Nov 3 No. 19 Syracuse Wake Forest 12:00 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 No. 20 Texas A&M Auburn 12:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 No. 24 Iowa State Kansas 12:00 PM
Sat Nov 3 Air Force Army 12:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 3 Central Michigan Eastern Michigan 12:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 3 Memphis East Carolina 12:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 Michigan State Maryland 12:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 Oklahoma State Baylor 12:00 PM FS1
Sat Nov 3 Rutgers Wisconsin 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Nov 3 South Carolina Ole Miss 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 Georgia Tech North Carolina 12:15 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 San Jose State Wyoming 2:00 PM
Sat Nov 3 Texas State Georgia State 2:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 3 Georgia Southern UL Monroe 3:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 3 Marshall Southern Mississippi 3:00 PM
Sat Nov 3 South Alabama Arkansas State 3:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 3 No. 13 West Virginia No. 17 Texas 3:30 PM FOX
Sat Nov 3 No. 6 Georgia No. 9 Kentucky 3:30 PM CBS
Sat Nov 3 Florida State No. 21 NC State 3:30 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 No. 16 Iowa Purdue 3:30 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 Kansas State TCU 3:30 PM FS1
Sat Nov 3 Liberty UMass 3:30 PM
Sat Nov 3 Louisiana Troy 3:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 3 Minnesota Illinois 3:30 PM BTN
Sat Nov 3 Navy Cincinnati 3:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 Tulane South Florida 3:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 3 UTEP Rice 3:30 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 3 No. 14 Penn State No. 5 Michigan 3:45 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 No. 22 Boston College Virginia Tech 3:45 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 Charlotte Tennessee 4:00 PM
Sat Nov 3 Missouri No. 11 Florida 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 No. 15 Utah Arizona State 4:00 PM
Sat Nov 3 Alcorn State New Mexico State 4:00 PM
Sat Nov 3 Appalachian State Coastal Carolina 5:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 3 Duke Miami 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 Houston SMU 7:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 UConn Tulsa 7:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 3 No. 4 Notre Dame Northwestern 7:15 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 Louisiana Tech No. 18 Mississippi State 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 Florida Atlantic Florida Intl 7:30 PM
Sat Nov 3 UCLA Oregon 7:30 PM FOX
Sat Nov 3 UTSA UAB 7:30 PM
Sat Nov 3 No. 1 Alabama No. 3 LSU 8:00 PM CBS
Sat Nov 3 No. 7 Oklahoma Texas Tech 8:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 Stanford Washington 9:00 PM PAC12
Sat Nov 3 USC Oregon State 10:00 PM FS1
Sat Nov 3 BYU Boise State 10:15 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 San Diego State New Mexico 10:15 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 No. 23 Fresno State UNLV 10:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 3 California No. 8 Washington State 10:45 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 3 Utah State Hawai'i 11:59 PM

Tennessee-Charlotte statistical comps preview: Expect a fight this weekend?

Numbers know no context. Sometimes that’s a good thing, and sometimes that’s a bad thing, and often you don’t know which is the case. Our Statsy Preview Machine thinks this weekend’s game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Charlotte 49ers is going to be a lot closer and a lot more uncomfortable for Vols fans than we expect or want it to be.

But the SPM also doesn’t know that Charlotte plays in Conference USA while Tennessee plays in the SEC, and it doesn’t know that Tennessee’s strength of schedule ranks 7th in the nation while Charlotte’s ranks 120th. And it doesn’t know that there’s an improvement curve associated with teams under new head coaches and that Tennessee’s is probably accelerated.

So, this week’s statsy preview calls for a healthy dose of human adjustment, but the numbers also seem to suggest more moderation than we probably would otherwise.

Predictions

SPM: Tennessee 22, Charlotte 19

Eye- and gut-adjusted: Tennessee 34, Charlotte 17

Tennessee rushing yards: 120

Charlotte rushing yards: 100

Tennessee passing yards: 250

Charlotte passing yards: 180

Tennessee rushing

Right out of the gate, the numbers make you go, “Huh?” Charlotte’s rushing defense, which is giving up only 89.8 yards per game, is 6th in the nation. Alabama’s is ranked 21st, giving up 113.4 yards per game to an SEC schedule.

Still, the Vols got only 31 rushing yards against the Tide. Against Auburn (No. 27 with 125.5), Tennessee got only 68.

The fact that Charlotte’s numbers have been compiled primarily against a C-USA slate certainly calls for an eye-and-gut adjustment, but Tennessee’s struggle to run the ball consistently is still a cause for concern.

Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Charlotte is 120 yards.

Charlotte rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 169.8 rushing yards per game, while the Charlotte run game is averaging 143.0 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is getting 130.8 yards per game on the ground, and they got 95 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is averaging 147.9 rushing yards per game and got 118 against Tennessee.

With an eye-and-gut adjustment, I’m guessing Charlotte will get about 100 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 209.5 passing yards per game. Charlotte, allowing 228.9 passing yards per game, features the worst passing defense the Vols have played this year.

With the exception of ETSU, the closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn. They’re allowing 222.5 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 328 against them.

The productivity through the air for the Vols against Auburn was primarily talent, but there was also a fair amount of luck involved, so my guess is that Tennessee will put up somewhere around 250 passing yards this weekend.

Charlotte passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 214.3 passing yards per game. Charlotte is getting 197.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is getting 165.5 yards per game through the air, and they got 39 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 197.8 passing yards per game and got 186 against Tennessee. I’m going with Charlotte putting up about 180 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 25.6 points per game, and Charlotte is allowing 26.1. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is allowing 30.0 points per game, and Tennessee got 24 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina. They’re allowing 25.6 points per game, and Tennessee got 24 against them.

That seems to suggest that Tennessee generally gets what the scoring defense gives. But with eye-and-gut-and-C-USA adjustments, my prediction is that Tennessee will score around 34 points against Charlotte.

Charlotte scoring

Tennessee is allowing 29.6 points per game. Charlotte is averaging 22.8. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is averaging 15.4 points, and they got 0 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 28.4 points and got 24 against Tennessee. I’m going with Charlotte putting up about 17 points against Tennessee.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

The Vegas spread favors Tennessee by 21, with an over/under of 46-47, which converts to something like 34-13, Vols.

Left alone, the SPM says Tennessee 22, Charlotte 19, a spread of only -3.

With eyeball and gut adjustments, I’m going with Tennessee 34, Charlotte 17, a spread of -17.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has a 78% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 35, Charlotte 21.6, a spread of only -13.4.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 93.7% chance of winning.

Updated projected win totals for the Vols after South Carolina

What are Tennessee’s chances for bowl eligibility with South Carolina in the rearview mirror and four games remaining? Let’s take a look.

My new expected win total:

  • This week: 5.55
  • Last week: 6.0
  • After Week 7: 6.3
  • After Week 6: 5.0
  • After Week 5: 4.9
  • After Week 4: 4.55
  • After Week 3: 5.5

The dip from last week is mostly just converting the 50% chance of beating the Gamecocks to 0%. I have Kentucky and Missouri both at 50% and Vanderbilt steady at 60%. Charlotte remains at 95%.

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 3-5 (1-4), 5th in the SEC East

  • Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
  • Beat ETSU, 59-3
  • Beat UTEP, 24-0
  • Lost to Florida, 47-21
  • Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
  • Beat #21 Auburn, 30-24
  • Lost to #1 Alabama, 58-21
  • Lost to South Carolina, 27-24
  • Charlotte, 4:00 PM
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Vanderbilt, TBD

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 6-1 (4-1), 1st in Big 12, #12

  • Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
  • Beat YSU, 52-17
  • NC State, Canceled
  • Beat Kansas St, 35-6
  • Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
  • Beat Kansas, 38-22
  • Lost to Iowa State, 30-14
  • Bye
  • Beat Baylor, 58-14
  • Texas, TBD
  • #17 TCU, TBD
  • #15 Oklahoma St, TBD
  • #5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 7-2 (5-1), 1st in Southern

  • Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
  • Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
  • Beat VMI, 27-24
  • Beat Furman, 29-27
  • Beat Chattanooga, 17-14
  • Beat Gardner-Webb, 45-0
  • Beat The Citadel, 26-23
  • Lost to Wofford, 31-17
  • Beat Western Carolina, 45-43
  • Mercer, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
  • Samford, 1:00 PM ET

UTEP Miners

Current record: 0-8 (0-4), 6th in C-USA – West

  • Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
  • Lost to UNLV, 52-24
  • Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
  • Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
  • Lost to UTSA, 30-21
  • Lost North Texas, 27-24
  • Bye
  • Lost to LA Tech, 31-24
  • Lost UAB, 19-0
  • Rice, 3:30 PM ET
  • MTSU, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
  • W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
  • Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+

Florida Gators

Current record: 6-2 (4-2), 3rd in SEC – East, #13

  • Beat Charleston So, 53-6
  • Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
  • Beat Colorado St, 48-10
  • Beat Tennessee, 47-21
  • Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
  • Beat #5 LSU, 27-19
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 37-27
  • Bye
  • Lost to #7 Georgia, 36-17
  • Missouri, TBD
  • S Carolina, TBD
  • Idaho, TBD
  • Florida State, TBD

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 7-1 (5-1), 1st in SEC – East, #6

  • Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
  • Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
  • Beat MTSU, 49-7
  • Beat Missouri, 43-29
  • Beat Tennessee, 38-12
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 41-13
  • Lost to #13 LSU, 36-16
  • Bye
  • Beat Florida, 36-17
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • #9 Auburn, TBD
  • UMass, TBD
  • Georgia Tech, TBD

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 5-3 (2-3), 4th in SEC – West

  • Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
  • Beat Alabama St, 63-9
  • Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
  • Beat Arkansas, 34-3
  • Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
  • Lost to Miss St, 23-9
  • Lost to Tennessee, 30-24
  • Beat Ole Miss, 31-16
  • Bye
  • Texas A&M, TBD
  • Georgia, TBD
  • Liberty, TBD
  • Alabama, TBD

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 8-0 (5-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1

  • Beat Louisville*, 51-14
  • Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
  • Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
  • Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
  • Beat Louisiana, 56-14
  • Beat Arkansas, 65-31
  • Beat Missouri, 39-10
  • Beat Tennessee, 58-21
  • Bye
  • LSU, TBD
  • Miss St, TBD
  • The Citadel, TBD
  • Auburn, TBD

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 4-3 (3-3), 4th in SEC – East

  • Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
  • Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
  • Marshall, Canceled
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
  • Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
  • Beat Missouri, 37-35
  • Lost Texas A&M, 26-23
  • Bye
  • Beat Tennessee, 27-24
  • Ole Miss, TBD
  • Florida, TBD
  • Chattanooga, TBD
  • Clemson, TBD

The Vols’ future opponents

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 4-4 (3-2), 4th in C-USA – East

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 7-1 (5-1), 1st in SEC – East, #11

  • Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
  • Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
  • Beat Murray State, 48-10
  • Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
  • Beat S Carolina, 24-10
  • Lost to Texas A&M, 20-14
  • Bye
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 14-7
  • Beat Missouri, 15-14
  • Georgia
  • Tennessee
  • MTSU
  • Louisville

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 4-4 (0-4), 7th in SEC – East

  • Beat UT Martin, 51-14
  • Beat Wyoming, 40-13
  • Beat Purdue, 40-37
  • Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
  • Lost to South Carolina, 37-35
  • Lost to Alabama, 39-10
  • Beat Memphis, 65-33
  • Lost to Kentucky, 15-14
  • Florida
  • Vanderbilt
  • Tennessee
  • Arkansas

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 4-5 (1-4), 5th in SEC – East

  • Beat MTSU, 35-7
  • Beat Nevada, 41-10
  • Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
  • Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
  • Beat Tennessee St, 31-27
  • Lost to Georgia, 41-13
  • Lost to Florida, 37-27
  • Lost to Kentucky, 14-7
  • Beat Arkansas, 45-31
  • Missouri
  • Ole Miss
  • Tennessee

Sunday Best Tennessee vs. South Carolina: Some Big Things Without the Little Things Mean Little

If you’re not encouraged about the improvement and development of the Tennessee Volunteers over the 2018 season, it’s because of some pre-programmed belief that we’re destined to fail.

I get it. The Vols lost (again) to South Carolina on Saturday night, blowing a 21-9 lead to lose 27-24 and fall to 3-5 on the season and 0-7 all-time against Will Muschamp, of all people. It’s tough to stomach, even after all these losses, all these years.

But, as I tweeted Saturday night, it’s OK to be unhappy and to be critical of some of the coaching decisions against the Gamecocks while still being encouraged about the future. That’s where I am today, and it’s where I expect I’ll straddle throughout the remainder of the frustrating first season of the Jeremy Pruitt era.

There are sickening losses mixed in with signature wins. While we all expected to lose to Alabama and Georgia, you can’t turn the ball over six times against a mediocre Florida team and expect to win. The Vols were pummeled in that game, and though the Gators have proved to be the better team as the season has matured, you’d love to play that game again mistake-free.

After stunning Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium with a near-flawless performance, the Vols had another chance to beat another team Saturday night that is probably a little better, probably a little more established, probably a little further along in the process under Muschamp. There were opportunities. They were blown.

You hope the lessons are learned from these difficult losses, but it’s OK to be critical of some of the things that happened. The penalties already have been touched upon on this site, and they were crushing. Pruitt’s decision to go into halftime up 14-9 rather than try to get late points with all your timeouts wound up being something we look back at and cringe, especially considering his aggressive style of play this season.

Not challenging the South Carolina fumble at the goal line was puzzling — even if the SEC should have reviewed the play and failed. What do you have to lose if you’re Pruitt? You can’t not challenge it because you think it may not get overturned. That was a massive play in the game that would have meant possession and maintenance of a lead. To choose to let it slide, regardless of how you think the hapless officiating crew would have ruled, was disappointing.

But this team is learning how to improve, and the coaches are learning how to manage the game. It’s a new concept for them all. We don’t have to love it, but those little things like penalties and in-game decisions and drops by Josh Palmer on tough balls but ones he could have had, and Jarrett Guarantano hanging onto the ball too long, and Jauan Jennings’ taunting penalty that gave the Gamecocks good first-half field position that resulted in a touchdown were all “little” things that added up to big things.

There were big frustrations, too, like the defensive staff’s inability to do anything to counter South Carolina’s offensive tempo, and UT’s continued offensive line woes and struggles to pressure the quarterback, but those things aren’t going to be fixed overnight.

The encouragement came in the big things Saturday, even if the biggest thing (a win) eluded the Vols once again.

I continue to be baffled by the contempt I see for Guarantano on social media. Is he the perfect quarterback? No, far from it. Does he need to grow and learn and develop? Sure he does, and he needs to at a quicker pace. But the kid didn’t throw downfield a lot Saturday night because he didn’t have time to. Get used to it. That’s because this offensive line is awful. Don’t fault him for the game plan that he executed, and though there are flaws that can keep UT from winning some games, don’t overlook how far he’s come and the things he’s doing well.

You want Keller Chryst to start? Fine. There is certainly a handful of you. But the things Guarantano is doing well outweighs the things he’s struggling with, in my opinion. He’s getting a lot of blame for the offensive line’s inability to give him even three seconds in the pocket, and that is baffling to me. Maybe Chryst reads blitzes better, and maybe he should get a shot. I don’t know; I certainly haven’t given up on Guarantano’s future, nor do I necessarily think he is the worst of the two valid quarterback options.

Maybe I’m behind the curve on that. Those who don’t want him there sure know how to voice their disdain, and it doesn’t help matters when Guarantano finally has time like on the 4th-down play at the end of the game, and hangs onto the ball too long.

But I was encouraged by the offense and Tyson Helton working around their major limitations against the Gamecocks. They got the ball to running backs and receivers on screens and swing passes, effectively moving the ball downfield from marker to marker. The Vols had 144 rushing yards, and Ty Chandler and Tim Jordan ran the ball effectively at times and fell forward. There was the brilliant play call on the Carlin Fils-aime touchdown run, and Tennessee was a remarkable 11-of-16 on third-down conversions against a defense that came into the game fourth nationally, allowing less than 25 percent conversions on the year.

As Pruitt said afterward, the offense played good enough to win.

You can blame the Swiss cheese defense that had no answer for the ‘Cocks’ quick tempo, and you can even blame the poor officiating for the botched fumble call and the ghost pass interference call, but you can’t blame offensive production. If you do, you’re barking up the wrong tree.

The defense had too many blunders like Alontae Taylor letting Bryan Edwards behind him, missed tackles and bad run fits, but this is a unit that also has enjoyed its moments this year. When you see Darrin Kirkland Jr. trying in futility to chase down a running back, Baylen Buchanan get torched or Todd Kelly Jr. failing to catch up to a receiver who’s blown past him, that’s just talent. There’s nothing Pruitt nor anybody else can do about that. The glimmers you see from that unit are few and far between because there just isn’t enough there.

It’s the same with story with the offensive line, especially now that Trey Smith is gone for who-knows-how-long and Brandon Kennedy is out for the year. What the Vols have in the trenches just isn’t good enough. It’s a nice story how much better the Vols’ four senior defensive linemen are this year than at any time in their career, but that doesn’t mean they are top-notch SEC players. They aren’t, but they’re what we have.

So, any defensive development on that side of the ball needs to be found in film study (which I have) and in the fact that players are more often than not in positions to make plays (they are) whether they make them or not. That’s why I’m encouraged on that side of the ball, despite them not being good enough right now.

Other than the Auburn game, there was little quantifiable evidence of huge offensive hopes for the future until last night. This team is playing better, and Helton called a very good game, one that should have produced a win. Just make a couple more plays and commit a couple fewer penalties, and the outcome could have been different.

But it wasn’t. And here we are. With — according to ESPN — a 17 percent chance to make a bowl game with Charlotte, Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt left. Though the Vols should beat Charlotte, UK is ranked 11th nationally. The Wildcats won’t scare anybody with their offense, but they win. The defense is the truth, and UT’s slow linebackers aren’t a good matchup for Benny Snell. Missouri’s Drew Lock and Vanderbilt’s Kyle Shurmur are capable of torching Tennessee through the air.

And now we have to win three of four to make a bowl game.

It’s not going to be easy, and the goal was always a bowl. So, you can look at the failure to get to one as a knock on Pruitt’s first year. That’s fine; he’s a big boy. He can take it. It doesn’t mean you’ve given up on him or you’re a bad fan or you’re a poor-mouther or you are a troll.

It means you expect more, even when we probably shouldn’t.

But don’t give up on this team quite yet, either. The season isn’t over, and a bowl is still attainable. The failure to make a bowl, though, isn’t outright failure. This program is being built with players hopefully learning how to play the right way, where to be and what to do.

Saturday was a bump in the road, and it’s OK to be equally encouraged and disappointed today. Now, this program just has to learn to win.

Again.

Yes, we’ve been here before. But maybe this time is different, right? They can’t afford to make the little mistakes they did against the Gamecocks, or we’ll never find out.

GRT Guessing Game Results Week 9: The First Purge

Here’s the play-by-play for this week.

Round 1

Q: Which team has more net rushing yards? (10 – 50 points available)

A: South Carolina (10 points) (The Gamecocks had 224 rushing yards to Tennessee’s 144)

Eight players got this right.

Mushrooms: LTVol99 and Bulldog85

Bananas: Pete and Rtbrwb66

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • Blue Shell #3 Counter: 2
  • Blue Shell #4 Counter: 4
  • No new blue shells or bolts

Top 10 after Round 1:

  1. Displaced_Vol_Fan
  2. Raven17
  3. Randy Holtzclaw
  4. Mitchell K
  5. Will Shelton
  6. Jayyyy
  7. JWheel101
  8. Joel Hollingsworth
  9. daetilus
  10. Sam Hensley

Round 2

Q: Who wins and by how much? (10 – 25 points available)

A: South Carolina, by 1-3 (15 points) (The Gamecocks won 27-24)

Nobody got this right.

Mushrooms: LTVol99 and Pete

Bananas: Bulldog85 and Pete

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • Blue Shell #3 Counter: 1
  • Blue Shell #4 Counter: 3
  • New Blue Shell #5 Counter: 5
  • No bolts

Top 10 after Round 2:

  1. Displaced_Vol_Fan
  2. Raven17
  3. Randy Holtzclaw
  4. Mitchell K
  5. Will Shelton
  6. Jayyyy
  7. JWheel101
  8. Joel Hollingsworth
  9. daetilus
  10. Sam Hensley

Round 3

Q: Which Tennessee player finishes with the most combined rushing and receiving yards? (20 – 50 points available)

A: Tim Jordan (20 points) (He had 91 total combined rushing and receiving yards)

Again, nobody got this right.

Mushrooms: cscott95 and Mariettavol

Bananas: Randy Holtzclaw and Isaac Bishop

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • Blue Shell #3 blows up and displaces Displaced_Vol_Fan, who loses 10 points. He or she remains in the lead, though. For now.
  • Blue Shell #4 Counter: 2
  • Blue Shell #5 Counter: 4
  • New Blue Shell #6 Counter: 5
  • Mariettavol gets a bolt and an extra 10 points

NEW

Bowser comes along and purges every player who hasn’t participated in any of the past three weeks. If you’ve been purged, you can re-join, but you’ll have to start over at zero.

Final Standings After Week 9:

Rank Player Points
1 Displaced_Vol_Fan 67
2 Raven17 62.5
3 Mitchell K 57
4 Will Shelton 56.5
5 Randy Holtzclaw 54
6 Jayyyy 53.5
7 JWheel101 53.5
8 Joel Hollingsworth 53.5
9 daetilus 52
10 cscott95 50
11 Mariettavol 49
12 Sam Hensley 48
13 Jrstep 45
14 jfarrar90 44
15 Harley 41.5
16 Evan 39
17 LTVol99 36.5
18 Isaac Bishop 33.5
19 Gavin Driskill 26
20 HT 23
21 Bulldog85 4
22 brandon galford 0
23 Pete -5
24 Rtbrwb66 -5
25 rdbulet96 -5