Category Archives: Football

Why was the offense so slow in 2018?

With Tyson Helton moving on as the head coach at Western Kentucky, it becomes a little easier to view his time in Knoxville objectively. We pointed to Tennessee’s pace of play throughout the season, and it’s especially jarring at the end: 716 total snaps was the lowest total in the post-Fulmer era, and last in the SEC by a huge margin (Mississippi State was 13th with 763 total snaps – stats via SportSource Analytics). This has to be taken into account when throwing around season totals: the Vols were thus last in the SEC in yards per game, as you’d expect with such few opportunities. But per play, the Vols were 12th at 5.46 ypp, just behind Auburn at 5.47 and ahead of LSU and Arkansas. That number isn’t anything to write home about, but neither is Tennessee’s decade…and in that context, the Vol offense was more productive per play than 2011, 2013, 2014, and last year’s atrocious 4.77. And something we always need to repeat, even though we’re used to it: the Vols played one of the nation’s most difficult schedules, #2 in S&P+. The going is never easy in Knoxville.

From game one, it was the theme in 2018: competence without excellence, better than last year though it would’ve been hard to be worse. In 2017 the Vols had so few snaps (732) in large part because they were that bad offensively. Larry Scott’s offense punted more often (5.9 per game to 5.5 this year), turned it over more (18 to 16), and was significantly worse on third down (30.67% to 38.22%). Last year the Vols ran so few plays because they had no other option. This year the Vols seemed to be going slow with more purpose. Will that be a theme going forward? How long will Jeremy Pruitt feel a need to protect his defense?

In Tennessee’s advanced statistical profile (via Bill Connelly) the Vols finished the regular season 30th in passing explosiveness and 23rd in third-and-long success rate. The offense finished 62nd in S&P+ – again, nothing to celebrate, but significantly better than the defense (96th) fared. That’s not a knock on Jeremy Pruitt; I think both numbers say more about Butch Jones than anyone. But I also think this trend will continue into 2019, regardless of who serves as offensive coordinator.

Will the offense be encouraged to lead the way in 2019?

If Tennessee’s biggest problems this fall were in the trenches – can’t block, can’t get pressure on the quarterback – the former seems to stand a much better chance of improving given the entire starting defensive line will graduate. Tennessee’s offensive line should benefit from a healthy Brandon Kennedy and an additional year of experience for some players, plus the arrival of five-star Wanya Morris and four-star Jackson Lampley. But right now, I’m not sure who the starters will be on the defensive line, let alone the backups, and the 2019 class currently holds no blue-chip commitments for that unit.

More than that, all of Tennessee’s offensive starters could/should return from a unit that was slow, but had its moments. In the right hands, the Vol offense could be potent in 2019; in anyone’s hands, they might still have to lead the way as Pruitt rebuilds the defensive line.

So whose hands those ultimately end up being is important, both for making the most of the returning experience next year, but also having the trust of the head coach. I don’t know how much the head coach’s fingerprints were on the Vols being so deliberate/slow this season. I do assume Pruitt needs someone he can trust more fully in the OC role; we’ve seen far too many well-regarded coordinators turn out to be a bad fit with the head coach, creating unfruitful compromises.

If it’s Hugh Freeze…

Along those lines, we might be a little too easily convinced Freeze is the best or only option. Aside from the obvious and the NCAA issues, both of which make me uncomfortable, Freeze could present more problems with both the floor and the ceiling.

Pruitt’s initial staff was built on pre-existing relationships; in some ways there’s a greater risk of failure in bringing in an outsider and hoping the fit is right. There’s a chance Freeze’s name ends up on a list with Bob Shoop: a great coach in a different setting, but if his vision clashes with that of the head coach (or if, when the going gets tough, Freeze – whose only coordinator gig was one year at Arkansas State – doesn’t respond well as the OC when he knows what it’s like to win big as the HC) it simply might not be a great fit.

And I don’t disagree, at all, that Pruitt needs to hire someone he can trust and put more of the offense in their hands; hopefully that’s part of a lesson he learned in his first year on the job. I’d simply imagine it’s a little harder to do that with someone you haven’t worked with in the past, and that Freeze isn’t the only one who can pull that off.

There’s also certainly a great chance of reward with Freeze, who worked wonders at Ole Miss…but if he’s everything some of us want him to be, how long is he in Knoxville? I get that you can’t hire scared, and it’s a good sign for your program when assistants are being promoted elsewhere. But for the Vols in the midst of a serious rebuild, with a defensive-minded head coach who needs a trustworthy, fruitful relationship with his offensive coordinator? I don’t see many scenarios where Freeze is a long-term answer. How much does it help Tennessee to have Hugh Freeze for one year? I’m not sure that’s what’s best for Tennessee right now, aside from the other red flags.

Regardless of your feelings on Freeze, it would be a different kind of red flag if Pruitt wanted to hire him and was turned down somewhere up the food chain. It might be a wise move for Tennessee administratively, but it’s never a good day at the office when the football coach at Tennessee is prevented from getting what he wants. I don’t know if that’s happening, or if it is how any of us would know for sure. But Pruitt would certainly know.

The Vols have everyone coming back on offense, including proven skill players and a quarterback with potential. Pruitt has a year under his belt that saw the offense play slow and, at times, perhaps limit itself. The offense will almost certainly lead the way in 2019. This is a good job with more than one good option out there. It’s an important hire that will require a lot of trust in a long-term rebuild. We’ll learn a lot by where Pruitt and the Vols ultimately turn. But the real answers are, as always, only available on Saturdays in the fall.

Play-calling is an art.

Some offensive coordinators have the innate talent to keep defenses on their toes, and others struggle within the framework of a game to sustain unpredictability.

For first-year Tennessee offensive coordinator Tyson Helton, it was a big, ol’ screaming dud of a season because of his inability to do so.

To be honest, though, it was a hire that seemed destined to fail from the beginning.

When Jeremy Pruitt was putting together his first staff at Tennessee, he made several hires that were met with universal delight. Then came the all-important offensive coordinator hire for a defensive-minded head coach, and after several exciting names were thrown around, word surfaced he hired USC assistant Tyson Helton.

For $1.2 million.

That’s a lot of cheddar for somebody who’d been around good play callers in the past but who’d never really consistently called an offense, even as Jeff Brohm’s offensive coordinator at Western Kentucky. Tennessee fans were unimpressed, and Helton was a popular scapegoat all year for the SEC’s worst offense.

In fairness to him, it’s impossible to be consistent when you have a historically horrible offensive line. In defense of the haters of the ‘What-the-Helton’ Offense, the man didn’t do himself any favors. There was zero rhythm in the play-calling, a discombobulated run-pass mixture and entire games — heck, entire months — where it seemed we couldn’t convert short-yardage plays or make enough noise on first and second downs to keep defenses honest.

Even the two best offensive performances of the year — against Auburn and South Carolina — were uneven and dissimilar. Were we the downfield-striking aggressors that beat the Tigers with a slew of 50-50 balls? Or, were we the horizontal passing team the Gamecocks failed to stop that allowed us to open up the middle of the field with the run?

It was frustrating to watch on a weekly basis.

Personnel had a lot to do with it, as did a starting quarterback with no internal clock and obvious limitations. But, just once, I’d love for us to look like an offense rather than power-run into the line of scrimmage two downs and then throw a 30-yard jumpball and hope something happens.

That’s not offense, and it killed us more often than it benefitted us.

Helton is to blame, Pruitt and his possible meddling is to blame, and the mediocre personnel and third-rate offensive line are to blame.

All that said, when you fail to get Ty Chandler the ball again after a 75-yard touchdown run to open the second half against Vanderbilt or you have a hoss like Jauan Jennings and struggle to get him balls, that goes on the shoulders of the OC.

At the very least, there have been enough reports about icy run-ins between Helton and Pruitt that you know there was smoke to the duo failing to see eye to eye. That’s never what you want with a young coach who doesn’t trust the side of the ball on which he isn’t an expert.

So when the news surfaced Monday that Helton was leaving Knoxville to take over for fired coach Mike Sanford Jr. at Western Kentucky, Vols fans almost universally rejoiced.

This is a do-over for Pruitt, and — unlike most coaches who’ve departed from UT recently — it won’t cost us any money or negative publicity.

Quarterback commitment Brian Maurer already publicly said he committed to UT and not the offensive coordinator, so he isn’t going anywhere. The Vols are in the mix for 2020 stud signal-caller Harrison Bailey of Marietta (Ga.) HS who is supposed to announce on Thursday between Michigan and Tennessee. Chances are, he already knows where he’s going, and it won’t impact that decision. Even if he chooses the Wolverines, there’s time for the new UT coordinator to get to know Bailey.

So, recruiting shouldn’t be hindered.

Now, the important question is where Pruitt will look next?

Some of the more popular names being thrown around today were former Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze, Auburn offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey, West Virginia offensive coordinator Jake Spavital, Alabama quarterbacks coach Dan Enos, former Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury (pipe dream), Georgia co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach James Coley, legendary high school coach Rush Propst, Hoover (Ala.) HS coach Josh Niblett, as well as Tennessee offensive line coach Will Friend, UT graduate assistant Joe Osovet and UT running backs coach Chris Weinke.

Other names could emerge, but obviously, a hire like Lindsey, Freeze, KK, Enos or Spavital would be a coup. Even Coley having SEC experience and play-calling acumen would be a nice hire. But a lot of the others come with major question marks attached, and they won’t sway popular opinion.

The bottom line, however, is this is a big opportunity for Pruitt to make a big move.

As a defensive-minded coach, he has to learn not only to trust what happens on offense but to let the man he hires do his job. Also, Pruitt is going to have to coach up his defensive coaches when it comes to play-calling, too. Head coaches usually don’t succeed for long playing coordinator at the same time. Yes, you like a hands-on coach who wants everything to go his way, but you also want him to be able to believe in the hires he makes to share that common-thread philosophy.

So, if Pruitt is comfortable with Lindsey who is a long-time buddy who has SEC coordinator experience with Auburn and wants to branch out from under the meddling of Gus Malzahn, that needs to be the move. If Pruitt talks to Enos or Spavital and gets on the same page with those guys, what philosophy they’d bring, that needs to be the guy.

I’m not averse to a Friend or Osovet promotion like most quick-triggered Vols fans. I would be disappointed, but I don’t necessarily believe it’s the death knell that it was when Butch Jones promoted Larry Scott to replace Mike DeBord. Yes, we’re jaded right now because of that situation, but we don’t know that Helton’s offense fails to work; we just know it failed in 2018 because of myriad reasons, not the least of which his ability to get into a comfortable groove with his in-game play mix.

It’s not hyperbole to suggest this could be the biggest decision of Pruitt’s Tennessee career.

Yes, he’s only one year in, and you have to believe athletic director Phillip Fulmer is going to give him a pretty long leash to build his program his way. But if Pruitt botches this hire, the questions creep in about whether he is just a really good defensive coordinator that is clueless when it comes to doing what it takes on both sides of the ball to build a championship-caliber program in the SEC.

Not making a bowl game in the first year is a honeymoon-ender for Pruitt, who gets a tiny pass thanks to the mess left by Jones. But while Pruitt doesn’t have to care how the fans feel about who he hires for OC, he’d better know whoever he chooses — from Niblett to Kliff Kingsbury — absolutely must perform.

It will help whoever gets the job that the Vols will have another year to retool its offensive line and get some more recruits in to help boost the offensive talent level. It will help to have another year of strength and conditioning in a stable program. But nothing can help that play-calling acumen; that’s something whoever Pruitt pinpoints must possess.

It was much of the reason Helton was never embraced in his only season on the Hill, and it’s the main reason why we universally are yelling after him not to let the door hit ya where the Good Lord split ya on his way out.

Opportunity abounds. Now Pruitt must seize it and hit a home run, something that will be judged on Saturdays next fall, not by the name of the hire.

Tennessee is playing for bowl eligibility on Saturday, but also to even its record this decade. The Vols are 55-56 since 2010. A win would tie them with Ole Miss and Arkansas for the decade as the only SEC teams with a better winning percentage than the usual basement dwellers from Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Kentucky is obviously up this year, but still trails over the decade at 47-63. Vanderbilt sits at 49-62.

But head-to-head, the Vols and Dores have split the decade so far. And more often than not, what Tennessee has done against the Commodores has played a significant role in the success or failure of their season. It’s not the measuring stick we envisioned at the start of the decade. The Vols can take an important step in leveling up by getting past the Commodores tomorrow.

Here’s a look back at how the last eight meetings have defined Tennessee’s season:

2010: At 4-6, Tyler Bray made his third start and led the Vols to a 24-10 win in Nashville to keep bowl eligibility alive. The Vols beat Kentucky the following week for a successful end to Derek Dooley’s first regular season.

2011: This decade is full of wildly entertaining games in the moment that didn’t stand the test of time because the season was ultimately unsuccessful. One of the best examples: after Tyler Bray missed five games with a broken thumb, he led the 4-6 Vols to a 14-7 halftime lead over a 5-5 James Franklin squad. But a 100-yard pick six tied the score, then Vandy took the lead with 12 minutes to play. A 13-play drive was capped with a fourth-and-goal touchdown pass to Da’Rick Rogers, setting the stage for overtime. Eric Gordon pick-sixed Jordan Rodgers (after a lengthy review) for the win. It was a great step forward in Bray’s return, and positioned Dooley to earn bowl eligibility again…and then the Vols lost at Kentucky.

2012: Dooley’s final game as head coach was a 41-18 beat down from Franklin and the Commodores. His fate was likely already sealed and Tennessee fans were simply interested in moving on. But while losing to Vanderbilt is uncomfortably common now, this loss was the first in the series since 2005 and the second since 1982, and the margin was jarring.

2013: Butch Jones came to his first Vanderbilt game in the exact position Jeremy Pruitt finds himself in now. A Josh Dobbs you’d never recognize now went 11-of-19 for 53 yards, the Vols failed to convert a faked field goal up 10-7 with 12 minutes to play, and after a fourth-and-one stop was overturned, Patton Robinette capped a 12-play, 92-yard drive with a touchdown with 16 seconds to play. It cost the Vols bowl eligibility and dampened some of the good memories of a near miss vs Georgia and a win over #4 South Carolina.

2014: Back in the same boat at 5-6, this time the Vols made it work. An 11-play, 94-yard third quarter drive put Tennessee in front 17-10, and a late score from Dobbs pushed the margin to 24-10 before a Vanderbilt score in the final seconds made the final margin 24-17. The Vols earned bowl eligibility for the first time in three years, and dominated Iowa in Jacksonville.

2015: The only business-as-usual Tennessee-Vanderbilt game of the decade. The Vols won 53-28 over a 4-7 Vanderbilt team behind 331 rushing yards, carrying Tennessee to the Outback Bowl.

2016: The most costly of any of these losses. With a clear path to the New Year’s Six, Tennessee led 34-24 with four minutes to play in the third quarter. From there: Vanderbilt touchdown, Tennessee fumble, Vanderbilt touchdown, Tennessee missed field goal, Vanderbilt touchdown, Tennessee turnover on downs. An already contentious season for Butch Jones took a hard turn into disappointment, setting the stage for his exit the following season.

2017: Jones was out, but the Vols still had a chance to avoid the first 4-8 season in program history. It was not to be: despite a 14-7 lead and trailing only 21-17 with five minutes to play in the third quarter, the defense again surrendered three straight touchdowns down the stretch. Vanderbilt finished 5-7, the Vols 4-8.

Four wins, four losses. The 2011 win was lost in the disaster in Lexington the following week, but I’d say you can draw a straight line between relatively successful regular seasons in 2010, 2014, and 2015 and beating the Commodores. A regular season that might feel more successful than any since 2010 will turn on what the Vols do against Vanderbilt one more time tomorrow.

 

Back during Butch Jones’ first year in Knoxville in 2013, the Vols entered the penultimate game of the season against Vanderbilt needing a win out against the Commodores and Kentucky Wildcats to make a bowl game.

UT lost 14-10 in a hapless showing, and as I was walking out of Neyland Stadium, fans grumbled, and I heard the first questions about whether or not the first-year Tennessee coach could get the job done.

As we all know now, he couldn’t. And while I don’t know how fair it is to begin to question at that early juncture of the season, it’s something Jeremy Pruitt will hear a little if the Vols leave Nashville with a loss this season in a winner-take-all (some?) game this weekend.

Personally, I figured this season would be on the brink of 6-6 or 5-7 all year, so I’m going to dial back the criticism. The roster was in terrible shape this year, and though the lack of talent and consistency have killed UT, it’s important to keep things in perspective. Clay Travis reminded us of that this week:

How bad of shape did Butch Jones leave Tennessee in? Worse than Fulmer, Kiffin, & Dooley for sure. Vols have been underdogs in all 8 SEC games this year for the first time in program history. This week Vols are +3.5 vs Vandy, the shortest SEC underdog Vols have been all year.

— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) November 21, 2018

Tennessee was a six or more point underdog against 8 of 9 FBS teams on the schedule this year. Only favored to beat UTEP, Charlotte, & ETSU. If Pruitt gets Vols to 6-6 he will have won three games as an underdog. Would be a fantastic coaching job that is being overlooked by most

— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) November 21, 2018

Of course, there’s never an excuse when you’re Tennessee to lose to Vanderbilt. But the harrowing fact is, regardless of how the Vols have beaten the Commodores in recruiting classes, VU has developed better recently. They have a senior starting quarterback in Kyle Shurmur, some playmakers on offense [looking at you, Ke’Shawn Vaughn] and arguably a better defense than Mizzou. This is not a great matchup for Tennessee.

This season has been equal parts hopeful and frustrating. The game to look back on that should sting is the South Carolina second-half collapse. Win that, and this game is virtually meaningless. Instead, this one means a good bit to Pruitt and VU coach Derek Mason.

For Pruitt, though, this is uncharted waters, as he mentioned this week. He’s used to this last game meaning something, and 6-6 — you can just tell when he talks — is not something he’s trumpeting in the least. He probably wants this season to just be over so he can trade 25 players for those of his own, but he knows the value of winning for his young guys is the extra 15 practices.

That’s the most important element of this game for him. For us, it’s not wanting to lose to Vanderbilt again, which has quite frankly owned us recently. Those words taste bitter, but they’re true.

KEYS

Tying things together

I have this vision of Tennessee celebrating at Vanderbilt Stadium and Ty Chandler being hailed as the hero, going home and having one of the biggest games of his two-year college career.

UT needs it to happen, but in order for it to, the offensive line must play better than it has at any point this season. Vanderbilt’s rush defense is 13th in the league, allowing 195 yards per game. The Vols have to run the ball, and they have to get Chandler touches in space, whether that be rushing to the edge or catching passes.

Saturday has to be Ty’s game, and the offensive line needs to make sure he can take it and run with it. If he stars, the Vols win.

Play JG

The reason Tennessee lost against Missouri last week was not that Jarrett Guarantano went out early in the first quarter with a head injury, but it sure didn’t help.

Again, that’s an indictment of an awful offensive line that needs to drastically improve in this offseason, or position coach Will Friend needs to be fired. It’s been that bad, and there’s been very little glimmers of improvement. The O-line finally got JG hurt after all the shots he’s taken this year, and it crushed UT’s offensive hopes.

Hopefully, JG can go this weekend, the line can keep his jersey relatively clean. The Vols need to hit a few of their customary shots downfield, and Guarantano’s health entering the game and sustained throughout are paramount to the Vols making enough offensive plays to win.

Shake Shurmur

Last weekend, Tennessee failed to get any pressure at all on Mizzou veteran quarterback Drew Lock thanks to a sturdy Tigers offensive line, and Lock sat back there in the pocket and shredded UT’s secondary with as much time as he needed. He delivered precision pass after precision pass in a resume game for the NFL. His numbers would have been much better had the Tigers not dropped a pair of deep balls.

Shurmur is no Lock, but he’s a capable veteran quarterback who has thrown a lot of SEC passes and had a ton of success against the Vols. If UT can’t get to him, he will torch Tennessee’s young secondary, and make Alontae Taylor and Bryce Thompson look bad. Darrell Taylor and Co. must find a way to generate a pass rush.

And the young cornerbacks need to play better than they did a week ago, too.

Steal points

Speaking of those young DBs, it’s about time for Alontae Taylor to make his freshman season signature play, isn’t it? He’s had a really strong year, even though he was embarrassed a little a week ago against Missouri. He needs to play for a little pride this week and rebound with a big interception or forced fumble.

Tennessee needs to generate a couple of turnovers deep in Vanderbilt territory and parlay them into extra points. I’m not sure UT can win straight-up without forcing the Commodores into some miscues. This is a very important element of Saturday’s game.

No freebies

On the flip side of that, the margin for error for this team is zero. A week ago, the Vols were driving for what could have been a late first-half touchdown that could have cut the Mizzou lead to 19-17. Instead, Keller Chryst threw a “bad pass” according to his coach, that was picked off, and the Tigers instead turned it into a touchdown and a 26-10 halftime advantage.

That was a soul-crushing, momentum-seizing play.

In the third quarter, Carlin Fils-aime’s fumble was picked up and returned for a scoop-and-score, and the rout was on. That’s essentially a 21- or possibly even 28-point swing. The Vols cannot do that. No team can, but especially not one as slim on talent as Tennessee.

They’ve got to cut out mistakes, or they’ll lose.

Prediction: Tennessee always beats Vanderbilt, right? Well, that’s no longer the case, now, is it? We’ve endured some embarrassing years, and the biggest disappointments in them all are the ownership of UT by South Carolina and the former cupcake in Nashville.

This is not a good Vanderbilt team. It may be better than the Vols, but that doesn’t mean it’s a good team. If UT loses, there needs to be plenty of grumbles, and it will make Pruitt’s job on the recruiting trail a little harder. I don’t know that I fully believe it, but because I can’t bear the thought of losing again, I’m taking the Vols in a close one.

Vols win 27-24

LOCKS

On the way to the Tennessee game last weekend, I was bragging to my dad about how all these big-wig college football reporters’ records ATS this year were like 10 games under .500, and how even though I was beating myself up over being two games in the black, I was pretty strong.

Then last week happened, and I did the equivalent of the Vols defense.

The college football world threw up a 50-burger on me. I went 1-6, easily the worst showing of the season to fall to 37-40 with just one week to go. That’s incredibly disappointing. Much like the Vols, I fell on my face. Now, I’ve got to rally with everybody against me to come up mediocre.

The only game I won was Nebraska +1.5 against Michigan State. Syracuse pooped the bed against Notre Dame, Texas Tech’s worst performance of the season came against Kansas State, we all know what happened with UT, West Virginia lost outright to Oklahoma State, Florida State upset Boston College and Vanderbilt actually beat Ole Miss. There it is – 1-6. *Shudder*.

Here’s hoping for a 5-2 record and a solid season with a push…

1. Memphis and Houston under 76: It’s normally not smart to bet the under in Memphis games, but I’m not sure the Cougars can hold up their end of the scoreboard without D’Eriq King. I think this one scrapes by.
2. Syracuse +6.5 over Boston College: I hate picking games during rivalry week because of all the close lines, but this is one of those I can’t believe I’m getting points in. I think the Orange win outright.
3. Michigan and Ohio State under 57: I’m staying away from the line in the Big Game, but I love Michigan’s defense, and I think this number is way, way too high.
4. Pittsburgh +4 over Miami: It’s not often Vegas hasn’t caught up to a team at this point in the season, but that’s the case with the Panthers, who are still getting disrespected by the oddsmakers.
5. LSU +3 over Texas A&M: This is the third game where I’m stunned I’m getting points. LSU is too polished on defense to let this game slip by.
6. Oklahoma State -5 over TCU: Could this be a letdown game? Sure. The Cowboys have played their best against the best competition this year, and now they’re going up against one of the best defenses in the Big 12. But they’ll do enough to cover this slight number.
7. Notre Dame -11.5 over USC: Things are going downhill fast in L.A. This will be Clay Helton’s last game; I’ve learned by lesson on the Irish after last week.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

In this space last weekend, we published our weekly statsy preview with the subtitle The comps have to be wrong about this game, right? The GRT SPM spit out a (rounded) score of Missouri 40, Tennessee 17, a prediction so offensive to my eyes and guts that I just ignored it and made my official prediction 31-27 notwithstanding any of the comps.

Immediately after the game that ended in a 50-17 Tigers win, the SPM texted me a sticking-out-your-tongue emoji, which was a total shock to me because I had no idea it even had a tongue. Or a face, for that matter. I reminded it that it was wrong about the Kentucky game, and the conversation ended there.

Anyway . . . This week, the SPM mostly agrees with Vegas, my eyes, and my gut, and is expecting a close one between the Vols and Commodores Saturday. So, we can all agree this week that we hope we’re all wrong and end up with a repeat of the game against the Wildcats.

Predictions

SPM: Vanderbilt 20, Tennessee 17.8

Eye- and gut-adjusted: Vanderbilt 21, Tennessee 20

Tennessee rushing yards: 160

Tennessee passing yards: 220

Vanderbilt rushing yards: 140

Vanderbilt passing yards: 180

Tennessee points: 20

Vanderbilt points: 21

Spread: Vanderbilt, -1

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 131.5 rushing yards per game. Vanderbilt is giving up 194.9 per game on the ground, which makes them the worst rushing defense the Vols have seen all season. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Vanderbilt is South Carolina, which is allowing 192.3. But Tennessee only got 144 on the ground against the Gamecocks.

Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Vanderbilt is 160.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 201.6 passing yards per game, and Vanderbilt is allowing 241.1. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is giving up 244.1 yards per game through the air. A brand spanking new Tennessee team still finding itself put up only 172 against them in the first game of the season for both teams.

On the other hand, the closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Charlotte, which is allowing 225.0 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got only 172 against them.

My eye and gut tell me that Tennessee can do better through the air than it did against either West Virginia early or Charlotte late, and that’s supported by the numbers when you look at them from Vandy’s perspective. Arkansas is averaging 197.5 passing yards per game, and they got 240 against the ‘Dores. Florida, which averages 213.8, got 284. So, the Vols should do better than their average through the air against Vanderbilt Saturday.

Based on that, I’m saying that Tennessee will get somewhere around 220 passing yards this weekend.

Vanderbilt rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 159.5 rushing yards per game, while the Vanderbilt run game is averaging 162.8 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is getting 162.0 yards per game on the ground, and they got 118 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 167.2 rushing yards per game and got 126 against Tennessee.

So, it would appear that Tennessee’s rush defense, with all of its faults, has generally held similar teams to below their average on the ground.

The data from Vandy’s perspective is a mixed bag. On one hand, we’re most like Arkansas (giving up an average of 166.6 rushing yards per game) to them, and they put up 250 against the Hogs. On the other hand, the next closest comp for them is Kentucky (giving up 137.5), and they only got 68 against the Cats. We’re right in the middle.

Based on all of that, I’m guessing Vanderbilt will get about 140 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Vanderbilt passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 209.8 passing yards per game. Vanderbilt is getting 228.6. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is getting 226.4 yards per game through the air, and they got 190 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is averaging 262.0 passing yards per game and got 152 against Tennessee.

The Vols getting torched last week by Missouri and Drew Lock notwithstanding, I think their secondary is capable, so I’m going with Vanderbilt putting up about 180 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 23.6 points per game, and Vanderbilt is allowing 26.2. This makes them nearly identical to Missouri, which is allowing 26.6 points per game. The Vols managed only 17 against the Tigers.

The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia. They’re allowing 23.3 points per game, and Tennessee got only 14 against them.

As much as I hate to say it, it appears that the Tennessee offense has a ceiling on the number of points it can score. This feels strange, because at times the offense looks quite capable. But 11 games of data says Tennessee’s not likely to score more than its average of 24 points unless it’s playing ETSU or having an outlier game against Auburn.

And yet, it’s Vanderbilt, it’s the last game of the regular season, and there’s a bowl game on the line, so maybe that’s worth a few points.

My prediction is that Tennessee will put up around 20 against Vanderbilt.

Vanderbilt scoring

Tennessee is allowing 27.0 points per game. Vanderbilt is averaging 26.7.

The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Kentucky, which is averaging 23.9 points, and they got 7 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 28.9 points and got 24 against Tennessee.

So, the Vols have done well to really well against opponents with the most similar scoring averages, which is obviously good news.

I’m going with Vanderbilt putting up about 21 points against Tennessee.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

The Vegas spread favors Vanderbilt by 3-3.5, with an over/under of 50.5-51, which converts to something like 27-24, Vandy.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has a 44% chance of winning and puts the score at Vanderbilt 31.6, Tennessee 29, a spread of -2.6.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 38.7% chance of winning.

Left alone, the SPM says Vanderbilt 20, Tennessee 17.8, a spread of -2.2.

After eye- and gut-adjustments, I’m going with Vanderbilt 21, Tennessee 20, a spread of -1. That’s an even closer prediction than the Tennessee-Kentucky game, so let’s hope for a similar result.