Making Progress: Explosive Plays

In 2016 the Vols were one of the most explosive teams in the country: 79 plays of 20+ yards, 19th nationally. In 2017, the bottom fell out hardest here: only 38 plays of 20+ yards, 123rd nationally.

Here too, progress was slow but accounted for last season: 52 plays of 20+ yards, 96th nationally. But remember, Tennessee ran fewer plays than any team in the nation last year. So those 52 explosive plays represented a higher percentage of the whole.

In fact, in the passing game the Vols were really good in their ratio of explosive plays to total passing attempts. In the post-Fulmer era, Jarrett Guarantano’s 7.8 yards per attempt trailed only Tyler Bray (8.3 in the last five games of 2010, 8.0 in 2011 and 2012) and Josh Dobbs in 2016 (8.3). And the percentage of big plays was even higher last season.

Here’s the percentage of 20+ yard passing plays in Tennessee’s total passing attempts this decade:

SeasonPassing Att20+%
20182973913.1%
2017319257.8%
20163795013.2%
2015371369.7%
2014453449.7%
2013344329.3%
20124775311.1%
2011400297.3%
20104195412.9%

(Stats via Sport Source Analytics)

Guarantano (with a small assist from Keller Chryst) connected on big plays in the passing game at a better rate than any Vol squad other than the 2016 offensive juggernaut. Those numbers don’t include sacks as passing attempts – Vol QBs went down on about 7% of drop backs – but Tennessee was still potent in the passing game, thanks in part to the work of Marquez Callaway, Jauan Jennings, and Josh Palmer on the other end of the play. Palmer’s 21.04 yards per catch were the most by any Vol this decade with 20+ receptions in a season; Callaway’s 16 yards per catch trailed only Josh Malone in 2016 (19.44), Cordarrelle Patterson in 2012 (16.91), and Denarius Moore in 2010 (20.87) among those with 35+ receptions in a season.

The Vols may not want to go fast, but they have all the tools to go big in the passing game, including what should be an improved offensive line.

Explosiveness in the running game, however…here’s the percentage of 10+ yard running plays in Tennessee’s total rushing attempts this decade:

SeasonRushing Att10+%
20184194911.7%
20174134611.1%
20165178516.4%
20156179515.4%
20145246111.6%
20134606915.0%
20124135112.3%
2011392307.7%
20104085012.3%

As you’d expect: slightly better than 2017, but in a group of sub-par performances that only top 2011, when the Vols had no passing game to keep defenses honest after Tyler Bray’s injury.

Ty Chandler got hot late in the season and finished with 5.48 yards per carry. But Tim Jordan actually carried the ball most (132 attempts to 115 for Chandler), and his 3.95 average was the lowest for the lead back since Tauren Poole’s 3.71 in that 2011 season. Tennessee’s additional options to find balance created few sparks: Madre London had 206 yards on 42 carries (4.90 per), Jeremy Banks 185 yards on 52 carries (3.56 per).

An improved offensive line should help here, and Eric Gray could provide those needed sparks to assist Chandler and Jordan. Could the Vols use the passing game to set up the run more in 2019? With Pruitt’s conservative nature, that will be interesting to watch. But with the right combination of existing pieces, new faces, and a willingness to pursue more big plays, Tennessee’s offense could show significant improvement in this department.

June Recruiting Preview: A Massive Month for the Vols

With the month of May coming to a close and Tennessee sitting on 6 public commitments after the recent addition of JUCO DB Art Green, the Vols have a class that significantly favors quality over quantity at this point.  With the top two JUCOs in the country (Green and DE Jordan Davis) along with a Top 5 QB in the country, a 4-star DL, a potentially elite Slot WR in Jimmy Calloway, and one of the best Longsnappers in the country, there is absolutely zero fat in this class so far.  But, after losing a handful of bigtime prospects for whom they were in deep with, including DL Justin Rogers, OL Tate Ratledge, and WR Rakim Jarrett – not to mention the commitment of RB Ebony Jackson – the month of June is expected to be, and needs to be, a profitable one for Coach Jeremy Pruitt and Tennessee.  In fact, given the accelerated recruiting calendar these days, with spring/summer official visits and the December signing period, it’s almost a must that the Vols come out of June with some tangible results.  Below are some story lines to watch as Tennessee’s camps get started this coming weekend:

Vols would like to see some instate players camp

As opposed to the class of 2019, Pruitt and his staff are clearly enamored with more than a few instate players.  At the same time, there is a group of instate players with multiple Power 5 and even SEC offers that don’t yet have an offer from the Vols.  Some do have a Tennessee offer but so far the Vols aren’t pushing as hard as others, and Pruitt’s staff would love for them to come camp in Knoxville and earn it:

DL Derrell Bailey (camping this weekend), Corbet Mims (recent offer), and Michael Reese (offer).  Dallas Walker is another instate DL who Tennessee has offered but so far isn’t pursuing as hard as even the likes of Auburn and Florida.

DBs De’Arre McDonald (will definitely camp, date TBD), Devonte Nelson, Dajean Gibson, and Yukari Blanchard are all interesting DB prospects.  Tennessee would surely love to add to its DB board, and if they could do it with an instate player(s) who earned an offer via a camp performance all the better.

Offensive skill players Darrin Turner and Elijah Young both have Vol offers but right now aren’t being heavily recruited by Tennessee.  That could change if either or both of them showed out at camp.  There’s really no good reason for Young – a Knoxville-area native – not to do so.

OL Marcus Henderson has seen his recruitment slow down a bit and likely doesn’t committable offers right now from the big name on his list, including Tennessee.  Were he to make the cross-state trek from Memphis and perform well, however (ala Melvin McBride last year), that could change.  Same for fellow Memphian, White Station Spartan OL Ray Curry.

Not all of these guys will camp, but the ones that do – especially those without offers – could find themselves being heavily targeted by Tennessee and could quickly reshape UT’s overall board.

Priority instate targets could make decisions

As noted, the Vols would love to build the foundation of its class with instate players, and OL Cooper Mays and Chris Morris,S Keshawn Lawrence, and DL Tyler Baron, Jay Hardy, and Reggie Grimes are arguably Tennessee’s top targets from the Volunteer State.  Morris has already said he will be back to Knoxville to camp in June after visiting the first weekend of May, and likely will take a summer official visit as well.  The others, with the exception of Grimes, have Tennessee right at the top of their respective lists and have developed a bond among the four of them especially while jointly visiting Knoxville on multiple unofficial visits.  They’ve also each flirted with the idea of committing this summer, and were one to take the plunge and commit to Tennessee it could create a tsunami among the rest (as well as others).  Obviously the Tennessee staff would like to at least get them back to campus this summer, but ideally would Tennessee would love for them to jump onboard. 

OL Board will really take shape

After a tremendous OL haul in the class of 2019 that came after adding at least two future multiple-year starters (plus a grad transfer) in the class of 2018, Tennessee is likely being extremely picky with its OL spots and take no more than four, if that.  With Ratledge committing to UGA, Mays and Morris are easily the Top 2 OL on the board for the Vols.  As discussed above, one or both of them could do something this coming month or close to it.  Either way, along with targets like Joshua Jones (who just put the Vols in his Top 6) and Denadre Buford, the OL below will see some action in their recruitment in June:

Bigtime OL Xavier Hill will take his official visit to Knoxville the weekend of June 14th.  He’s been to Knoxville once already and has also taken an OV to LSU.  He had once considered a May commitment – many thought Alabama was in the driver’s seat – but backed off of that.  However, he’ll be at Texas A&M this coming weekend and then at Alabama for a mid-week visit right after his trip to Tennessee, so with those visits in the can he may be ready to make a decision soon.

Tennessee has also recently added two JUCO OL to its board, both from ASA College in Brooklyn, the former home of Tennessee’s director of programming for football Joe Osovet.  Both Tariq Stewart and Antwan Reed will make unofficial visits to Knoxville the weekend of June 14th and depending on how the trips go and how they look physically one or both could become serious targets.

Richie Leonard will OV to Kentucky on the weekend of June 8th and is working on setting up OVs to Tennessee (he visited in April unofficially) and likely FSU after just OV’ing to Georgia Tech this past weekend.  He’ll then decide over the 4th of July weekend.  Miami, UCF, Louisville, West Virginia and Washington State are contenders as well.

Newly minted 4-star Marcus Dumervil plans to visit Tennessee this month, along with Ohio State and UGA.  Alabama, OU and LSU (already visited both officially) in mix as well.  Dumervil hails from St Thomas Aquias HS in Florida, the alma mater of current Vols Josh Palmer and Kivon Bennett, so Tennessee certainly has a tie there. 

Javion Cohen, who visited Knoxville back in February before committing to, and subsequently decommitting from, South Carolina, is fresh off an OV to Georgia Tech this past weekend along with Leonard.  He’s got OVs set for homestate (and presumed leader) Auburn this weekend and Florida the weekend of June 15th, so if the Vols want to stay in that race they’ll need to get him back to campus soon.

Josh Remetich from New Orleans will camp after receiving an offer this month. He’s got some lower-end SEC, ACC and Big 10 offers so it will be great for the staff to see him in person to evaluate.

Other targets will camp and/or visit

Undoubtedly dozens of prospects from the classes of 2020 and beyond will make their way to Knoxville during the month of June, many of whom don’t yet have firm public dates.  For example, LB Kourt Williams might visit this month as the Vols look to dip into California for a stud 2nd-level defender for the second year in a row, and fellow LB Rodney Groce also plans on coming back to Knoxville after a great visit in March. 

Below are the players who are known to be planning to visit Knoxville in June (along with the prospects discussed above), as well as some notes on Vol targets visiting elsewhere during the month:

Recently offered LB Allen Merrick and teammate (and Alabama commitment) ATH De’Rickey Wright, RB Israel Abanikanda, and DL Derrell Bailey will visit this coming weekend.  So will 2022(!) instate WR target Taylor Groves.  Notably, top RB prospect Tank Bigsby will make his official this weekend to South Carolina, absolutely one to watch as the Cocks are his presumed leader and will certainly be pushing for him to shut it down. OL Xavier Hill will be on an OV to Texas A&M (with some Vol targets). 

Additionally, Auburn is holding its Big Cat Weekend event, and Vol targets DL Zykevious Walker and Dallas Walker, OL Cohen (OV), DB Brian George (OV), LB Trenton Simpson (OV), and WR EJ Williams will be on the Plains.  Bigtime LB target Len’Neth Whitehead will make the short trip to Athens, GA to camp at UGA – likely in an attempt to earn a commitable offer.

The June 8th weekend is already setting up to be a monster, with multiple top-of-the-board targets set to visit.  LB Trenton Simpson will take his official visit to Knoxville in between the trip to Auburn and one to Georgia, while DL Omari Thomas and high school teammate RB Jabari Small will take unofficial visits (after both visiting Texas A&M the weekend before), perhaps also bringing fellow Briarcrest High student and top 2021 hoops target Kennedy Chandler with them. QB Haynes King is planning on making a decision by late June, and he’ll also be at Texas A&M this coming weekend before heading to Knoxville the 8th for his OV.  How that visit goes will likely determine whether the Vols end up signing a 2nd QB in the class to go with Harrison Bailey, as King appears to be their lone remaining target at the position.

OL James Robinson will take his official visit to Tennessee the weekend of June 15th, a week after possibly visiting/camping at instate Auburn, which will be one to watch.  Bigtime WR target Zevian Capers, currently an Arkansas commit, will also take his OV to Tennessee this weekend.  With multiple visits currently planned for after his UT trip, the Vols will need to hit a homerun with Capers to land him.DL Corbet Mims will also be in town that weekend, unofficially, while stud DL Darrion Henry is tentatively set to officially visit.  The Vols sit in Henry’s top 4, with LSU (already OV’d) and Cincinnati (OV the previous weekend) all trailing instate Ohio State, who will receive an OV the following weekend. 

DE Blayne Toll, S Jaquorius Conley and LB Quandrrius Robinson all have official visits to Tennessee scheduled for the weekend of June 22nd, so having three bigtime Defensive targets on officials will be big for the Vols.  Robinson will be at Kentucky the June 8th weekend, Auburn (where he was once committed) the weekend after, and Alabama for a mid-week official in between those.  He’s another one who could make a late June/early July decision after having taken most of his OVs.  Meanwhile Toll is thought to be an OU lean so the Vols have ground to make up there. 

There is simply no getting around it: June is a huge month for Tennessee.  After a more-than-solid class of 2019, Coach Pruitt and his staff absolutely have an opportunity to fast-track the rebuild with a bigtime class of 2020.  The Vols will have many of their top prospects on campus for camps, unofficial visits, and even official visits.  At the same time, many top targets will also be visiting other campuses.  Importantly, at least seven will take their official visits to Knoxville in June – after Tennessee used six of them for the Orange & White Weekend.  So the Vols – while not an outlier in this Spring/Summer Official Visit trend that has massively accelerated from last year – are absolutely shooting their shot incredibly early on many of their top targets.  Therefore, by the time the 4th of July rolls around the direction of Tennessee’s 2020 recruiting class, which is currently short on quantity but high on quality, will be much clearer. 

Early Bowl Projections Expect Vols to Make Reasonable Progress

Magazines are hitting shelves – get ours here! – and with them an early round of bowl projections for Tennessee. The good news: I haven’t seen the Vols projected to come up empty in the postseason yet, nor have I seen Tennessee projected to spend December in Birmingham or Shreveport.

It’s all an educated guessing game at this point; a couple of outlets have the Vols projected to the Belk (247) and Gator (Sporting News) Bowls. But these two and their SEC group of six counterparts – the Outback, Music City, Liberty, and Texas bowls – are reasonable destinations for Tennessee this fall. Any bowl appearance would be progress by definition, but an expectation for the Vols to get back in this group of six tier comes with a ceiling at its top in Tampa, or just beyond it in Orlando.

The first question to ask when making these projections is, “How many SEC teams do you think will make the College Football Playoff & New Year’s Six?” In the first five years of the playoff, the SEC put 14 teams in those two tiers, an average of 2.8 per year. With the semifinals in Atlanta and Tempe this year, the Sugar Bowl will automatically take the highest-rated SEC team not in the playoffs; that means at least two from this conference off the board if you expect Alabama to make it six-for-six in the CFP. Last season we saw a record four SEC teams come off the board before the Citrus Bowl, with the Tide in the playoff and LSU, Georgia, and Florida all in the New Year’s Six.

The Citrus Bowl picks next, then the league office works with schools and bowls to “assign” teams to the group of six games. Here’s how all of that has looked since the playoff began in 2014:

20142015201620172018
AlabamaCFPCFPCFPCFPCFP
ArkansasG6G6G6
AuburnG6OtherNY6NY6G6
FloridaOtherCitrusG6NY6
GeorgiaG6G6G6CFPNY6
KentuckyG6G6Citrus
LSUG6G6CitrusCitrusNY6
MississippiNY6NY6
Mississippi StateNY6G6OtherG6G6
MissouriCitrusG6G6
South CarolinaOtherOtherG6G6
TennesseeG6G6G6
Texas A&MG6G6G6G6G6
VanderbiltOtherG6

If the SEC gets three teams in the CFP and New Year’s Six, and the fourth team goes to the Citrus Bowl, the Vols or anyone else would just need to be considered one of the ten best teams in the league to make a group of six bowl. Seeing Tennessee routinely projected in this group suggests an expectation the Vols won’t just sneak in at 6-6, but fall in line with their Vegas projection of 7-5.

We wrote on the value of 7-5 a few weeks ago, but the bowl game adds another layer of context. If the Vols hit their Vegas number and win the bowl game, an 8-5 finish would be the third best season of the last 12 years:

  • 9-4: Butch Years 3 & 4
  • 8-5:
  • 7-6: Kiffin, Butch Year 2
  • 6-7: Dooley Year 1
  • 5-7: Fulmer Final Year, Dooley Years 2 & 3, Butch Year 1, Pruitt Year 1
  • 4-8: Butch Year 5

The relative value of 7-5 would depend on which seven and which five, but should easily slide the Vols into a group of six bowl for a shot at a nice aftertaste. That continues to look like a reasonable expectation for Tennessee this fall.

Tennessee Recruiting Positional Update: Tight Ends

Despite signing two high-level Tight Ends in the 2019 class in Jackson Lowe and Sean Brown, there is still both a lack of depth as well as the kind size that Pruitt prefers on the current roster.  Further, 2019 starter Dominick Wood-Anderson is heading into his last year of eligibility.  Only Lowe, Brown, redshirt freshman Jacob Warren, redshirt Junior Austin Pope and redshirt Sophomore James Brown are projected to the 2020 roster, and they all combine for 3 career catches, all by Pope, while only the freshman (giving Warren the benefit of the doubt due to his large frame and Strength & Conditioning Coach Craig Fitzgerald’s track record) truly have the size Tennessee wants at the position.

With Jim Chaney’s history of success using TEs as well as likely instant playing time available for a bigtime recruit(s), there’s not just a real need at the position for the Vols going forward but also a compelling sales pitch available.  However, while that is clearly the case, there only appear to be two actual targets on the board right now.  Both of them – 5-stars Arik Gilbert and Darnell Washington ae obviously bigtime, and with that comes the kind of competition that will make it very difficult to land either of them.  Gilbert, while UT QB commitment Harrison Bailey’s high school teammate and a frequent visitor to Knoxville, is considered a heavy UGA lean (with Alabama and Clemson in there, too), while Washington is being targeted by the likes of Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State among others.  Washington will take his OVs during the season and attend games, with Alabama (vs. LSU), Georgia (vs Notre Dame), Miami right now guaranteed three of them and the Vols fighting Florida, Auburn and likely others for his final two visits. 

Given the small number of current targets, as well as the kind of schools Tennessee is recruiting against for them, don’t be surprised to see Tennessee widen its net at the position throughout the cycle.  The Vols will hope to add targets both during the upcoming summer evaluation and camp periods as well as during the season, likely including the Junior College ranks.  One thing the Vol staff could consider, depending on how especially Lowe, Brown, and Warren develop as well as needs and numbers at other positions, is the fact that there are two stud instate Tight Ends in the class of 2021.  Hudson Wolfe, who hails from a Tennessee family in Savannah, Tennessee (the same high school as current Vol Latrell Bumphus) has already been to campus twice this year including for the Orange & White game and projects as a bigtime player, while midstate native Jake Briningstool is already ranked as a 4-star by 247.  Should the Vols like how the current young TEs on the roster are developing and feel like they have a really strong shot at one or both of Wolfe/Briningstool they might elect to not “reach” for a TE in this class just to have one and instead focus their resources elsewhere with confidence in the future at the position.

Tennessee Recruiting Positional Update: Wide Receivers

With four senior Wide Receivers at or near the top of Tennessee’s 2019 depth chart and little in the way of proven depth behind them, recruiting at the position for the 2020 class is of the utmost urgency.  Looking out to 2020, the Vols currently project to have only seven WRs on the roster (eight if you count Deangelo Gibbs, who from this vantage point seems best suited at the STAR position on defense due to his prior experience there and the greater chance he can have a large impact).  Of those 7-8, only Josh Palmer has proven himself to be a consistent SEC producer, and three of them are redshirt or true freshmen.   Further, if Tennessee wants to take the next step towards truly contending for SEC championships than it can’t just be about quantity (which is a clear need in an of itself) but also quality – the Vols need gamebreakers, plural, at the position, and they need them now. 

The good news for Tennessee is that its new position coach, Tee Martin, is an elite recruiter with deep ties to the South, and hoping to have kind of impact we forecasted back when he was hired. Martin has been consistently mentioned with elite WR prospects since his hiring – especially in Alabama and Georgia as ten of the twelve prospects discussed below hail from one of those two states – and has the Vols in the mix with multiple high level WRs.  However, after having missed on a couple of high level targets (more below) it’s imperative that the Vols close the deal on a few of them instead of coming in second.

Tennessee does already has a commitment from 3-star Jimmy Calloway who picked the Vols over Oregon and others – he’s most recently been offered by South Carolina in mid-May.  Calloway is an explosive athlete and track star who can play on either side of the ball and is very comfortable with the ball in his hands.  He’s shined at a couple of spring 7-on-7 events showing off great route running and dynamic playmaking ability and seems destined for more high-level offers.  He’s also got some high-end CB attributes and could end up getting a look there in college as well.  The bet here is that Tennessee will look smart having snagged Calloway’s early commitment but will end up having to fight off numerous other power programs.

4-star Zevian Capers, who is technically committed to Arkansas but taking visits, visited Tennessee in early April and has the Vols high on his list.  The large-framed but speedy pass-catcher took an official visit to South Carolina in late April and Tennessee hopes to get him back on campus again soon.  Capers showed out at the Atlanta Opening event, measuring in at 6’4 and close to 200 lbs while showing off great route running, speed, change of direction and sure hands.  Along with the Razorbacks and Gamecocks, he also has offers from Florida and actually received a Clemson offer last March as well.  While the Vols need at least 4 WRs in this class, Capers would make a great pairing with Calloway in terms of size and positional combinations. 

After two visits in a month, Tennessee is the stated leader for 4-star Kris Abrams-Draine, a 4-star former LSU commitment.  From South Alabama like Martin , he’s a smaller WR at 6’0 and around 170 pounds, but with offers from Oregon, Florida, and LSU among others, has the perfect size/quickness combination for the slot.  Having already been committed before it wouldn’t be a surprise to see “KAD” take his time before committing again, but as of now the Vols have placed themselves in a very strong position.

4-star EJ Williams took his official visit to Knoxville for the Orange & White Game after visiting previously in March and has the Vols in an unofficial top 6 along with Florida, Florida State, Alabama, Auburn, and Clemson.  Things have been relatively quiet for the Alabama native, which might not be a great sign for Tennessee considering he’s used that official visit already.  His only other OV is set for instate Auburn in late June, and took an unofficial visit to Gainesville last weekend.  Hailing from the same high school as Clemson freshman sensation Justyn Ross, Williams has the Tigers and Alabama on top at the moment.  Clearly this is going to be a tough battle for Tee Martin and the Vols but if the recruitment extends further into the season Tennessee certainly has enough traction to stay in the mix for his planned August 24th announcement.

Former LSU commitment and Memphis native Darrin Turner is another target on the radar, although despite his 4-star ranking he seems like a player the Vols would like to see in camp. His physical profile compares to 2019 Arkansas signee Trey Knox, a similarly big-bodied instate player who the Vols ultimately passed on. If Turner a) gets to campus and b) shows not just overall ability but high-end speed, the Vols could absolutely turn up the heat on him.

The Vols are also very much in the mix for 4-stars Mushin Muhammad (who visited in early April but has since visited Texas A&M twice) and are still working on 4-star Alabama commitment Dazalin Worsham who’s been on campus three times himself, including as recently as March.  4-star Auburn commitment Kobe Hudson decided to visit Knoxville for Tennessee’s spring game over the Tigers, suggesting that the door is at least cracked for the Vols.  Tennessee also offered 4-star Joshua Downs, a UNC commitment who is 7-on-7 teammates with Harrison Bailey and hails from the same Atlanta-area high school as 2019 Vol signee Warren Burrell.  Then there is Memphis native and former Oklahoma signee Kundarrius Taylor, Junior College teammate of Vol commit Jordan Davis who Tennessee has offered.  4-star do-it-all athlete Demarcus Beckwith (cousin of Lamonte Turner) also has the Vols high on his list after visiting in March.  Finally, Georgia natives Robert Lewis and Kobe Hudson (teammate of Harrison Bailey) have Vol offers and have both been to campus.

The Vols appeared to be in very strong shape with 5-star DC-native Rakim Jarrett, who took two unofficial visits to campus in March.  However, he committed to LSU while on an OV in Baton Rouge in late April.  Jarrett profiles as an instant 2020 starter in the mold of recent Alabama and Clemson WRs and would be one of the jewels of this class, so expect the Vol staff to continue to work to get him back for an official visit at some point before signing day.  Similarly, the Vols were right there for Thaiu Jones-Bell (who visited for the Orange & White Game) but he recently committed to Alabama.

The board will shake itself out as the above targets will (hopefully) make their way back to Knoxville and additional offers could emerge from camp performances.  Tennessee has done a nice job getting involved with multiple WRs the caliber of which it needs to take the next step offensively – and frankly most if not all of the existing WRs on the board have better recruiting pedigrees than all of the signees in the last two classes except Ramel Keyton – but as stated above the next and most important step is landing them.

Tennessee’s offensive line growing, but still needs more

A couple of weeks ago, we started looking at the size of the defensive front seven, ultimately finding that Tennessee’s projected starting lineup should be in the upper tier with Alabama and Georgia this fall. But what about the other side of the ball? Is Tennessee’s offensive line big enough to hold its own against monster-sized defensive fronts?

The benchline for the cumulative weight of the Vols’ offensive line starters was 1,532 pounds in 2017. It dipped to 1,505 in 2018, but is projected to be back around 1,535 this fall. If everything falls right, it could be 1,579.

But how does that compare to Tennessee’s SEC opponents this fall? Unfortunately, not great. Here’s the info:

Even though Tennessee’s projected starting lineup includes all five guys weighing in at over 300 pounds, it still comes in last on that list. Even if you make the most favorable assumptions, the Vols’ are still only sixth on that list at 1,579 pounds.

There are basically three, maybe four, tiers here. First, Georgia is in a class by itself at a monstrous 1,643 pounds. Their lightest starter is 318, and the rest of the guys are 320, 330, 335, and 340 pounds.

Missouri, Mississippi State, and Alabama are all over 1,600 pounds. You can go and ahead include Kentucky, which comes in at 1,592, in that tier or give them their own.

And then come Vanderbilt, Florida, South Carolina, and Tennessee, all 1,550 and under.

At this time, we have no data on the correlation, if any, between cumulative weight of the offensive line and offensive profiency. But I will note that of the teams on that list, the most prolific offenses last fall were Alabama, Missouri, and Georgia.

Tennessee’s made some progress in this area, and if the guys can continue to bulk up over the summer, they could make some additional headway. But this data may be some indication that they’re still going to have a challenge when push comes to shove this fall.

Making Progress: Red Zone Defense

Here are Tennessee’s stops in the red zone last season:

  • Alabama went for it on fourth down up 58-21 with four minutes left
  • South Carolina took a knee in the red zone at the end of the game
  • Kentucky had a field goal blocked with the Vols up 24-7 with 12 minutes left
  • Vanderbilt missed a field goal leading 17-7 early in the third quarter

And that’s it.

Opponents converted 41 of 45 red zone opportunities against the Vols last year, 91.1%, and only two of those four stops came in meaningful situations. That scoring percentage ranked 120th nationally last fall. Opponents scored touchdowns 30 times in those 45 trips; a 66.7% red zone touchdown percentage ranked 90th nationally.

(stats via SportSource Analytics)

As you might expect, the Vols were bad at this in 2017 too: 50 red zone visits, only five stops. Tennessee also gave up 35 touchdowns in those visits; 70% is Tennessee’s worst red zone touchdown percentage of the decade.

But it’s also a stat the Vols haven’t excelled at in a long time. In 2015 Tennessee held teams to a 56.1% touchdown percentage, but gave up seven touchdowns in eight visits against Oklahoma and Florida, setting a tone that was hard to forget. In 2014 Tennessee allowed only 34 red zone visits, but gave up points 32 times. You have to go back to teams with Fulmer’s final recruits on them to find more success: a 45.5% touchdown percentage in 2009, 52.1% with a 79.2% scoring percentage in 2010.

A note of interest for 2019: on offense, last year Mississippi State led the SEC in red zone touchdown percentage at 69.1%; BYU was slightly better at 69.2%. Those two teams don’t strike the same extreme fears as some of Tennessee’s recent non-conference and cross-divisional opponents, but both were incredibly efficient in the red zone.

If last year was about getting out of the basement, consider the progress available if Tennessee just moves toward average football in some of these key categories. Last season the Vols moved from rankings in the 120’s to rankings in the 80’s and 90’s in many categories. The median for turnovers forced last year was 19; Tennessee forced only 15. The median for red zone scoring percentage allowed was 83%, with a 60% touchdown percentage. If the Vols can just get from 91% and 67% to those average numbers, it can make a real difference in close games.

One big question for both turnovers and stops in the red zone: who are the playmakers on defense? The Vols will need more than Darrell Taylor and their sophomore corners to make a meaningful difference here.

Making Progress: Pace and Balance

No team in the country ran fewer plays than Tennessee last season.

The Vols had 716 snaps in 12 games, 59.7 per contest. Maryland was next with 728 snaps. Tennessee also flirted with last place in this category in 2017 – 732 snaps, 125th nationally – but the offense did make strides from one year to the next. The Vols ran fewer plays for the reasons you’d expect in 2017, but were better in all of those categories last fall:

2017Rank2018Rank
Yards Per Play4.771205.4688
Punts Per Game5.9235.533
Third Down %30.7%12038.2%74
Time of Poss.28:1410429:1086
Turnovers18481630

(stats from SportSource Analytics)

The offense improved, but the pace slowed even more. I wouldn’t expect Tennessee to lead the league in total plays under Jeremy Pruitt, no matter who the offensive coordinator is. But we speculated throughout last fall if Tennessee was going slow on purpose, for protection of its defense or otherwise.

It was often easiest to arrive at that thought on first down. Last year the Vols attempted only 95 passes on first down, 119th nationally. Most of what’s behind them are service academies, Georgia Tech, and other option teams. Unlike some of those teams, the Vols played from behind for significant minutes against half of their schedule.

Running on first down could still bear fruit: Tennessee averaged 4.46 yards per carry on 1st-and-10, up from the 3.70 yards they averaged per carry overall. We’ll talk more about this when we get to what the Vols did on 3rd-and-1 in this series. But Tennessee’s 219 first down carries gave them a run/pass ratio of 69.7% on first down.

What kind of difference will Jim Chaney make? One of his greatest strengths is adapting the offense to the talent around him. With Tyler Bray in 2012, the Vols ran the ball just 55.8% of the time on first down. With Nick Chubb and Sony Michel in 2017, Georgia ran the ball a whopping 77.3% of the time on first down. The 2017 leaderboard of first down rushing attempts: Georgia, Air Force, Army, Navy.

In some ways we’ll just need to see it before saying how exactly the Vols will/should go faster in 2019. If Pruitt was, in fact, trying to protect his defense last fall, will it need the same protection this year with an entirely new defensive line? If the offense can excel with plenty of returning pieces and Chaney’s leadership, will the Vols intentionally engage in faster play and more points? There’s no guarantee the one will lead to the other: last year Tennessee’s most efficient day at the office came against Kentucky, where the Vols averaged 6.87 yards per play in just 60 snaps. But the season highs (79 plays vs Florida) and lows (46 at Georgia) produced the two least efficient days against power conference foes: 4.61 yards against the Gators, 4.54 against the Dawgs.

The Vols need to go a little faster with a little more balance on first down. How much more of each will represent their best football in 2019? Stay tuned.

The weight of Tennessee’s offensive line from 2017-2019

If you’ve been following along the last couple of weeks, you know that we’ve been looking closely at the line of scrimmage, particularly from a size perspective. Two weeks ago, we spent most of our time trying to determine if Tennessee had the right size guys along the defensive front, and Wednesday we looked at offensive line continuity. Today, we’ll look at the size of Tennessee’s offensive line.

The cumulative weight of the Vols’ offensive line in 2017

Because of the aforementioned continuity problems, identifying Tennessee’s “starting lineup for the 2017 season” is problematic. As noted in that post, there were 11 different starters at the five positions that year, and four of the five positions were manned by three different starters during the course of the season. The last one wasn’t better, but worse, with six different guys showing up in the start chart at left guard that fall.

With all of that in mind, here’s what we came up with as the 2017 offensive line starters and their weights:

That looks like a pretty hefty offensive line, especially when Kendrick was in at right tackle. How did it compare to last fall?

The cumulative weight of the Vols’ offensive line in 2018

There was better continuity last fall, but the heft took a hit, primarily at the guard positions:

With Jahmir Johnson and Nathan Niehaus both well under 300 pounds, it looks like size could have been a fairly significant factor in the lack of improvement along the line in Pruitt’s first season.

The projected cumulative weight of the Vols’ offensive line in 2019

The good news is that the line is almost certain to get bigger again this fall and, if things play out the right way, it could get A LOT bigger.

Here’s our best guess at the starting lineup for 2019:

First things first: Everybody there is over 300 pounds, so woo for that.

That lineup is based on several assumptions, though. The first is that Brandon Kennedy will re-win the starting position at center and that Johnson — who started 11 games at the position last year — will slide over to guard. That displaces Jahmir Johnson, who started 11 games at left guard in 2018, but I’m moving him out because he’s currently listed at only 270 pounds on the official roster. He may be good, and he may be experienced, but if he’s only 270, I don’t think he makes the cut on a line with more options this year. 247Sports says that Johnson is now up to 297 pounds, but all of the official information is showing that he’s actually lost weight from last season, not gained it. If he is approaching 300, though, then I think he stays in the mix with several other guys.

Other assumptions are (1) that Wanya Morris does indeed win the job at left tackle, for which he was obviously being groomed this spring, (2) that Trey Smith’s health issues will keep him off the field, which is a real shame, and (3) that Darnell Wright not enrolling early means he won’t be able to displace some of the guys who not only got experience last year but also gained weight this offseason.

But now let’s see what happens if we make some different assumptions:

If Smith is able to play, he’ll likely start, and if Wright lives up to his billing and can get out of the gate quickly, he may be able to relegate several of last year’s starters to the two-deep. If both of those things happen, Tennessee has a 1,579-pound offensive line staffed by big dudes from end to end.

Is that good?

But how does a 1,535-pound (or a 1,579-pound) line compare to Tennessee’s main rivals? We’ll look at that next.

Making Progress: Forcing Turnovers

Last summer we looked at five ways Tennessee could show the most improvement in 2018. As was the case with much of last season, progress was present but not in a hurry: Tennessee improved its third down conversation rate from 30.67% to 38.22%, but the other four categories still have plenty of room to grow.

This summer we’re diving deeper into the places Tennessee has the most room for improvement in 2019 with our Making Progress series, starting today with getting the ball back.

Rocket Science, etc.

How many times did Tennessee force more than one turnover last season? One was ETSU. The other two? You guessed it: Auburn and Kentucky. In the other nine games, the Vols forced a single turnover six times, and had the goose egg thrice (UTEP, Georgia, Vanderbilt).

It wasn’t just the volume, but the timing of turnovers in Tennessee’s win at Auburn:

  • Auburn leading 10-3 2Q, Bryce Thompson INT at the UT 41, leads to UT touchdown.
  • Game tied 10-10 2Q, Jonathan Kongbo trick play INT from the UT 36
  • Vols leading 20-17 3Q, Sack-Fumble-TD

The Vols built their 24-7 lead over Kentucky with no assistance, then watched the Wildcats give it away three times in the final 10 minutes, twice inside the Tennessee 35, to prevent any idea of a comeback.

In a sense, it was the opposite problem from 2017. The Vols used a pair of turnovers to get the Georgia Tech game to overtime, but couldn’t beat the Gators despite three turnovers and lost at Kentucky despite a +4 margin. The offense failed to be opportunistic in 2017, then opportunity knocked only twice last fall.

The result: just 15 turnovers in each of the last two seasons, 97th nationally in 2017 and 101st in 2018 (stats via SportSource Analytics). That total joins anemic defenses from 2011 (18 turnovers), 2012 (17), and a what-could-have-been unit from 2015 (19 turnovers) in Tennessee failing to break 20 turnovers five times in the last eight years.

What makes the difference here? In 2017 the Vols recovered more fumbles, picking up ten loose balls with only five interceptions. Last year the Vols almost doubled their INT output with nine, plus six fumble recoveries. Both times the Vols recovered two-thirds of the fumbles they forced, meaning these numbers could’ve been even lower.

Who are the difference makers?

Bryce Thompson had three interceptions last year, Marquill Osborne two in those final ten minutes against Kentucky. Tennessee’s other interceptions last season came from the front seven: Kongbo against Auburn, Darrin Kirkland Jr. against ETSU, Kyle Phillip’s Piesman-winning play against Alabama, and Shy Tuttle had one at South Carolina.

It’s a little thin on the secondary, but I think we all feel pretty good about Thompson, Alontae Taylor, and Trevon Flowers continuing to grow back there. A big piece of this puzzle isn’t just the right guys covering receivers, but making a difference earlier in the play.

SB Nation’s Bill Connelly likes to point out that sack rate is the most reliable statistic when it comes to projecting a team’s turnover margin: the more often you hit the quarterback, the more likely you are to produce both fumbles and bad decisions that become interceptions. Last season the Vols averaged 2.08 sacks per game, 68th nationally. Eight of those 25 sacks came from Darrell Taylor, seven against Georgia and Kentucky. Like most things, it was an improvement over 2017 (22 sacks), but fell behind what the Vols accomplished in the Derek Barnett era (30 sacks in 2015 and 2016, 35 when Barnett and Curt Maggitt played together in 2014).

Something else to consider here: opposing quarterbacks completed 63% of their passes against Tennessee last year, 103rd nationally for the Vol defense. Some of it was who the Vols faced:

QBCmpAttPctYdsYPA
Will Grier253473.542912.6
Jake Fromm162272.71878.4
Tua Tagovailoa192965.530610.6
Drew Lock213070.02578.6

…but then Kyle Shurmur went 31-of-35 (88.6%) for 367 yards and 10.5 per. No other team completed more than 80% of their passes against the Vols this decade; Shurmur flirted with 90%.

So, as is the point with this series, lots of room to grow. For Tennessee to turn progress into progress! in 2019, they will almost certainly need more turnovers. Some of it is luck, some of it maturation in the secondary. But Tennessee also has to be better at disrupting the passer, and giving itself more of a chance to make a play.