The Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game: 2019 Week 4

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Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast – Episode 155 – Florida Week

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Pardon the errors, as the bot understands neither southern accents nor football.

Joel:
Hey, look, it’s the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast episode one fifty five. We are back from an undisclosed remote location where we were undergoing therapy and rehab after drinking too much whiskey and smoking too much crack. All of which was understandable because of the Vols two consecutive losses to open the season and because my wife and kids and pastor are all probably listening. I’m kidding. I didn’t smoke any crack anyway. I’m Will Shelton. Kidding again. I’m Joel Hollingsworth. I’m joined by Will Shelton. Will, did you spend any time in rehab over the past couple of weeks?

Will:
No. You know, we did one of these after the Georgia state game, and then a number of circumstances prevented us from doing what, after BYU? Was it like I was at the BYU game? I wasn’t at the Georgia state game. So I’m 100 percent convinced. If I was at both, I would definitely think Georgia State was worse than BYU. That obviously not a great way to go there at the end of regulation and a weird day we read about this weird not only for the unlikelihood of that last play, but also just man Tennessee control that game the whole time. I mean, you never once you saw they showed up to play. Never really thought they’d lose. And so I eat our nature of podcasting or not podcasting and suggests that we like felt worse after BYU. I still felt a little better. Was that year. Was that your take, too?

Joel:
I did feel better. Yes, I thought. I think Georgia State was a fluke. I think what happened there was that they their mistake was not taking them seriously and thinking it was a pre-season game and thinking, hey, we need to we need to use this as a scrimmage and figure out about ourselves and oh, no, it’s the fourth quarter and we’re about to lose and it’s too late. I think that’s what happened there. And I think who are we? We’re not we’re not the team that played Georgia State. We’re not the team that played UTC. But I think we might just be the team that played BYU, which is sort of a cusp B. Top 25 or have a chance against the top 20 to top 25 teams. I’m thinking that’s kind of where we’re at right now.

Will:
Yeah, they were you. I watched a lot of that USC game, like a lot of people hopefully hoping that they looked great and they did win. They offensively they had a lot more purpose against the Trojans than they did against Tennessee. And I’m hopeful that Tennessee’s defense was part of taking them out of that purpose, because like we said, I mean, they just Tennessee control that game from start to finish. And nothing that BYU use offense did in regulation was particularly frightening. They should get credit for a couple of great calls. They dialed up those reverse and around calls at the at the perfect time in regulation and in overtime. And kudos to those guys for that. But then is USC, they really looked like their offense had some purpose. So if you are if you want to lean optimistic about this thing, then maybe, Joel, what you’re saying is exactly right. Tennessee just didn’t show up at all against Georgia State. Certainly some of that was alignment. That’s what we were hoping two weeks ago. Turns out that was some of that, at least was the case when they get lined up. Right. They don’t have to give up four yards a carry to everybody. And you know that Tennessee’s defense looks better when Bertucci is on the field. We might get to find out if they look better. Bryce Thompson is on the field. No one’s exactly sure what’s going to happen there still. But yeah, I I feel better about the whole of of things. And I’m not sure if Tennessee beat Georgia State, you know, thirty eight to thirty seven and then they beat BYU 16 to 13 or whatever that was. I’m not sure. Like week to week in terms of Tennessee’s chances against the Gators on Saturday, I’m not sure I’d feel a whole lot different than where we are with Tennessee losing both of those games.

Joel:
I think that’s right. Yeah. And just to clarify, I was not, you know, wallowing in addiction or anything like that or I will also wasn’t just you know, it wasn’t we didn’t we didn’t have the we didn’t forego the podcast just because we were upset about football, that we had stuff going on. I got sick

Will:
Brett?

Joel:
For like always nasty sick. It was it was I don’t hope anybody ever gets that sick. It was nasty. Anyway, moving on. So the real season actually, I think begins now. The Vols head into the thicket of the SCC schedule. They get the gators this Saturday at noon on ESPN and then they get a week off before a gauntlet of get out my trusty magazine here. I did a smart thing this time. I actually put the schedule on the first page, so I didn’t have to look for it every time now. So, yeah. So we got Georgia in Knoxville and then Mississippi State and Knoxville. They go to Alabama, then they get South Carolina in Knoxville. A little bit of a breather, maybe hopefully against UAB for homecoming in Knoxville. And then they finish the gauntlet with a trip to Lexington to play Kentucky. So that’s that’s the gauntlet. But first up is, is Florida. And, you know, here’s the thing. They don’t look great, you know, but here’s the other thing. We always think that and then and then they gang up with the weirdness and they put a whopping on us. You know, I know we have 2016. Right. And, you know, I’m happy for that. I’m glad we have it. But it’s like one twelfth of our memories of, you know, of our recent memories. It’s like a it’s like a Boston cream, a single Boston cream and a box of like maple cake donuts. You know, no offense to maple cake doughnut lovers, but those things are terrible. You know, I do. Do you like maple cake? Doughnuts? You’re what? They’re probably your wife’s,

Will:
No.

Joel:
Like, specialty or something

Will:
No.

Joel:
That said

Will:
My

Joel:
That.

Will:
Wife does not do donuts, so you’re safe on that. No.

Joel:
Okay.

Will:
But I also am not a fan at all. Boston Cream. So I really wasn’t sure where you were going with that.

Joel:
Boston cream is like the best what? So. Okay, well, what is your what’s your favorite? What’s your Florida 2016 donut? And then what’s your. I hate Florida. Don’t it fills up the rest of the box.

Will:
Well, see, the Florida 2016 donut is the donut that you eat and you enjoy it so much and then you hate yourself the next day because of the rest of the donuts that were in the 2016 box after that, what the Hail Mary donut the next week. So

Joel:
Okay.

Will:
That’s that’s a good. So I feel like I can’t use my my my favorite favorite doughnut is a Krispy Kreme seasonally sometimes puts out a key lime donut,

Joel:
Oh,

Will:
Which

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Is one of the things that I’ve ever put in my mouth.

Joel:
You know,

Will:
So

Joel:
I’m sorry,

Will:
That’s

Joel:
But now

Will:
A.

Joel:
That now that I versus I think if we had this same conversation, my so stuck on doughnuts that I’ve asked you this question before.

Will:
Well, it could just be that I’m increasingly excited to talk about key lime, because

Joel:
Okay.

Will:
It’s also my wife who is a professional cake decorator, like she makes a key lime cupcake. That is also one of the best things I’ve ever put my mouth. So it’s probably just me talking, talking about key lime a lot. So

Joel:
Ok.

Will:
It would it would not be that it would be the like where you sometimes I feel like when you’re getting doughnuts that you can get to Krispy Kreme and places of that nature. You get to exotic and you get to doughnuts that have too many things going on and they’re too rich and filling in, like, say, you eat one. As was the case in 2016, you get the big battle of Bristol Donut like the big donut that you had before. And then you eat two other really good doughnuts and then you should stop right there and don’t eat anything else out of that box. But then you do you hate yourself for the next roughly three hundred and sixty five days. So that’s that’s that’s my take on that.

Joel:
So do you not have like a doughnut, you just will not eat because they’re so nasty?

Will:
I mean, they would have to be really weird. Krispy Kreme also made a. Oh, what’s the E? The peeps made a peeps doughnuts.

Joel:
Oh, okay. That’s.

Will:
So I won’t eat peeps, period. So that’s just that’s just by nature and proximity to a peep.

Joel:
So don’t tell me that you like cake donuts, because to me like cake donuts, they’re not really donuts. They’re not really cake. They’re like bagels. That, you know, a month before the high school reunion are trying to be doughnuts, you know. But they’re not quite getting there. So,

Will:
It’s a good analogy, too,

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
I enjoy. If it is Sunday morning before church or after worship in the little coffee and doughnuts section that all good Jesus loving churches have. I do enjoy like a cake doughnut hole in that situation

Joel:
Ok. All right.

Will:
Where it’s something light and all that. But I know, but the place that I eat, Krispy Kreme is when I’m on vacation at the beach. If I’m at the beach, I’m not purchasing any cake donuts. I’m going for the shit. You should eat two or three and then stop situation. There is no cake donuts in that box.

Joel:
I got an image of you sitting on the beach. Your pale white skin getting sunburned with a box full of donut holes.

Will:
Yet you and also the other rule about that is don’t eat donuts on the beach. Man, eat him. Eat him on the on the balcony of your hotel room. That’s just that’s a that’s a private moment with you and the donuts.

Joel:
All right. So let’s talk about Florida. So did you watch the Kentucky game?

Will:
I did. I watched it in full.

Joel:
Ok, first first thoughts when Philippe Franks went down.

Will:
Well, first thought was, man. That is a terrible. And, you know, it’s bad when they don’t go back and show it again. So my first thought was, I feel really bad for that kid even. And especially I mean, he’s done terrible things to Tennessee in 2017 and it certainly was an accomplice to Tennessee doing terrible things to itself last year in this game. But yeah, I felt terrible for him. My next thought was Emory Jones, and then we didn’t see him at all. So this this Trask kid was. I had heard that story, you know, about him being a backup in high school or whatever. But I I had never seen him or not paid any attention to the little bit that he had played before. So when they didn’t play Emory Jones at all. And then this kid comes out and. Those guys did a great job play calling for him, because with Franks, regardless of the ways that we talk ourselves into things in this Tennessee Florida game, the week leading up to it, it’s not just his fans that put forth a defense around Franks that is basically described as weird. I mean, we talked about this on the podcast before the Georgia state game. We’re going to encourage you to do something dumb, right? Like

Joel:
Yep.

Will:
We’ll give you a 12:00 play drive. We bet you’ll do something dumb on plays 1 through 11:00. So that defense didn’t work with with Trask. You’re going to need to blitz that kid more often and make him uncomfortable. I thought he had some happy feet, but he certainly is also 6 5 with a rocket arm. So my bigger takeaway now is when Mullin comes out and says, well, we got game plans for both and we’re going to play both of them, you know, it’s working. I genuinely don’t know. Is he just making Tennessee prepare for two guys, one of which was much more highly rated than the other? Or is this just you know, is it actually going to be. Yeah, we’re going to come out and roll two quarterbacks against Tennessee. So I think everybody is a little curious about whether or not it’s going to be just Trask or if they really do have the 6 5 rocket arm kit or the more athletic option. That’s that’s also going to play against Tennessee.

Joel:
I wonder if it really matters that much with more, and it seems like Mullen’s going to do his thing regardless of who’s under center or in the shotgun.

Will:
It’s a good one. Yeah, good point.

Joel:
So it’s just a matter of, you know, which guy you’ve got to you’ve got to calibrate based on, you know, which guy can run faster or or whatever. I don’t know. We’ll find out. But here’s the thing. As you said, the defense or. Well, let me say this first. It seemed to me like Kentucky started playing different for some reason. I don’t know whether that was really the case or whether Trask was just more efficient or something. But regardless, he he’s seen he played better. You know, the team was better under him. And I don’t know why that that is. Sometimes I don’t know whether because I ask you this question. And just second. But we were well acquainted with the plague of backup quarterbacks. Right. We’ve got rotten memories of backup quarterbacks. And I don’t know what happens, whether whether the defense is like, oh, good, their best guy is out. We can coast from here, you know, or whether the teammates of the guy who just went out are like, oh, no, we better step it up and they start playing better. Or, you know, whether the I don’t know, whatever it might be. Something happens when a new guy comes in. Maybe it’s because your whole game plan goes out the window now because you’ve got somebody new back there. But what do you think it is working? Do you have any explanation for why it is that that sometimes when backup quarterbacks come in, you don’t get the result that you think you should get? Because what you should get is that, hey, the best guy is out. The second best guy is in. We should be able to make something of that.

Will:
I think the simplest answer for all the ways we want to dress it up is when it happens in the middle of the game. The defense didn’t prepare for it and an offense almost by default simplifies because you haven’t been giving the backup as much of the playbook and enough reps in practice and all that stuff. And sometimes if a team is struggling on offense, as the Gators were at that point in the game and struggling, you know, they missed the chip shop field goal at the end of the first half. They had some other things that were. They were part of that, I think. But simplifying the offense. They did lots of quick throws with Trask taking advantage maybe of a defense that by default wants to be more aggressive against the backup. That sort of thing. I think some of it is just that. And then you see the next week. Hopefully this case that when you’re getting a full 60 minutes with this guy and it’s not asking a defense to change on the fly, then they don’t look quite so hot. But intimacy has seen both sides of that historically against backup quarterbacks. But again, I think Florida can negate some of that if they’re going to play both guys, because then you would have the same situation with Emyr Jones where you’re dealing with having to change it up on defense and adapt if Mullin is going to design kind of two different things for these guys. I think, again, you have to hope that now that you’ve seen a quarter and some change against this guy in a live fire situation and you’re ready for it as opposed to trying to be ready for what Franks does then in Tennessee, hopefully won’t have as much of a problem as Kentucky at.

Joel:
So I alluded to this earlier, but Tennessee’s had some bad experiences with this before. So what are your worst memories of backup quarterbacks as a Tennessee fan? Go.

Will:
Well, Matt, Mark is right is number one.

Joel:
That’s

Will:
I mean,

Joel:
Got

Will:
That’s

Joel:
To be number one. Yeah.

Will:
That’s at the top of everybody’s list. I was at that game and I probably said on this podcast and I know in writing that I was I was 20 years old then and a student at USC and all that stuff in 2001. And my three friends that I went to that game that we’re talking about, how can we rent an RV that drive that drive to Pasadena? None of us is old enough to legally rent a car, all that stuff at halftime. I think we said forwards to each other on the drive back to Knoxville on a car. So

Joel:
All

Will:
That

Joel:
Profanities.

Will:
That one and. Yes. And just more coughing than

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Talking. And that that went to it happened in Tennessee at a time when Tennessee’s defense was so elite that it was it was just chugging in there. I always try to make a point to say when we’re talking about that game, sometimes you just fumble. There’s lots of little things you can pick apart. And certainly Tennessee wasn’t prepared. They they were ready for a road hand debut. They weren’t prepared for Mark being more elusive. But also their two best offensive skill players, Travis Stevens

Joel:
Yep.

Will:
And Donte Stallworth, fumble in the fourth quarter. It happens. It sucks. But sometimes it happens and it’s you in battle dropped an interception. You know, we don’t need to relive that game or that. So, Mark, as one. I think the Kentucky won the Dooley, Kentucky one is too. Just because that’s the other end of the spectrum where you’ve had a bad year. Kentucky is worse. And trotting out the let’s try a wide receiver at quarterback today and it works for the first time in three plus decades. So that one is is certainly on the list in terms of what cost Tennessee, Jake Bentley at South Carolina a couple of years ago where, you know, that wasn’t an endgame switch and neither was Kentucky with what was that kid’s name? Rourke. That was the the wide receiver starting quarterback.

Joel:
I’ve I’ve repressed all that.

Will:
Yeah. I don’t want to remember.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
So no need to notify us if we got that wrong. But you know, Bentley in South Carolina, who’s you know. Oh, he is he’s supposed to be at his prom and all this other stuff.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
And here in South Carolina and Tennessee, off the bye week just with everything in front of him, that that game. I know that I didn’t ever write this. My grandmother died the day before that game. And, you know, I often joke like that would have killed her if she lived another day. Because I mean, that that thing I just remember being in a hotel in Covington, Tennessee, where my son was named after for my grandmother’s funeral and watching the end of that game and just thinking, what are you doing to me to say it like this? This is to stop eating the doughnuts. Right. That that game, by the way, again, not to dwell on the bad, but but doing those historic lines with Tennessee lost to Georgia State. That’s that’s like the fifth worst upset that Tennessee has suffered in the last 30 years. So we probably didn’t give that. There was no overreacting to that. Let me say that any any reaction to that loss and I was like, say, my grandmother died. I was kind of out of the immediacy of responding to it in blog form. But yeah, those weren’t over reactions. That was those are appropriate reactions for 14 and a half point underdog. So those are the three that stand out to me. Let me say this, like some of this angst we’re fans are of, we have fans of ages now that don’t weren’t alive when we were great.

Will:
It’s not their fault they weren’t alive. But there is this this is turning a little too jinxed for my taste because we mentioned the good tasting donut of the 2016 Florida game. That was a backup quarterback. That was Austin Appleby in that game who threw a delicious interception in the midst of that. That that fourth quarter run by Tennessee, where I’m telling my wife I’ve been waiting all day for him to make that throw. And sure enough, you know, he added anything. So you have to hope for things like that with Trask, too, that if you get into that kind of situation, like just he’s he’s going to have something, he’s gonna have a bad decision in him. And hopefully that is what shows up there. So not it doesn’t always go bad against the gators. And there’s a one from 2014 as well where the you know, you’re up nine to nothing and then you give him the short field and they put in the backup and he runs one play and gets a touchdown. I’ve forgotten that guy’s name, too, but yeah. Those those Mark and then the Kentucky one. And I think Nick Bentley would be three on on my list.

Joel:
All right, speaking of quarterbacks, no. Had kind of a rough start, like the team for the first couple of games and then really bad first throw on on his first throw and against UTC, but then went what was seven of eight. He finished, looked really good, like he found a groove. It was Chattanooga. So we’ll see. But how are you feeling about Karen Tano at this point?

Will:
I feel like I would take the 2018 version of him in a heartbeat. Right now.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
The version that we all attached ourselves to in the offseason, the will be better because he’s a year older and we’ll be better because working with Jim Chaney version at this point, I’m willing to let that go. And I would just take last year’s version because I’m unsure what’s going on here other than to say that again. And good grief. We should know better.

Joel:
Yep,

Will:
I should know better.

Joel:
I know what you’re gonna say.

Will:
Don’t assume that new offensive coordinator is gonna mean smooth sailing right away. Like we should know that by now. But yeah, that is clearly not the case. So I hope again, for his sake. Can we simplify? Can we do something different? But if you give me the guy where you say, you know, your job is don’t make mistakes and give us a chance and give our excellent wide receivers who Pruitt said this week or last week, I feel like I know what I got at wide receiver and I’m not sure about anywhere else. He’s right. I feel like I know what we’ve got a wide receiver, too. Let’s give those guys a chance. You can’t expect the Auburn game from last year is so strange in terms of what Tennessee did on third down. You can’t expect that every time, especially against good defenses like the Gators in theory have. But the quarterback, that is not. I don’t know if he’s pressing. I don’t know if he’s just not. If he’s overwhelmed with with the scheme or whatever the case may be. But I mean, his interceptions are bad interceptions. You know, they are they are bad, bad interceptions. So I would I will go back to the 2018 version of him if that was offered to me right now.

Joel:
Do you watch the the sports source TV show? I know. I know you don’t want to live. But

Will:
Yeah,

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
I’d watch it on YouTube. I usually click through and watch the highlights. That depends on what game it was and what happened. But yeah, I click through the segments where the descriptions are of interest to me.

Joel:
So did you see the one where they talked about David Evans story in the athletic about the UTC staff identifying some tells the offense and the defense?

Will:
I did not. Because I. Because it was Chattanooga. I have not. I have not taken the time to watch any of it this week.

Joel:
Ok. Did you read the article?

Will:
I think it’s.

Joel:
Ok. So just if anybody is listening, hasn’t seen it. The gist of it is that David Alvin of the Athletic, who is fantastic. If you are not subscribed to that site, you should.

Will:
Yes, whole, whole we agree. We don’t know that dude. I don’t get a dime from them. You should subscribe to that. Absolutely.

Joel:
Yep,

Will:
And it

Joel:
Yep.

Will:
Just it supports a model of writing about sports on the Internet that you will not be surprised to know that Joel and I are fans of and believe them. So, yes, subscribe to them.

Joel:
Yeah. So he was embedded with the UTC staff the week before the Tennessee game and was privy then to their scouting of Tennessee. And they identified some tells, which I guess is what you do when your game plan, right. I mean, this is this is unique to guys who’ve never been in a locker room, but maybe is not so surprising to people who have. But it was really interesting in some of the things were like that, like the one they talked about on the sports source show was that if you follow Austin Pope, you will find the ball because Austin Pope, they run behind him every single time.

Will:
As

Joel:
And.

Will:
Opposed to running behind Dominick Wood-Anderson. Yeah.

Joel:
Yeah. So follow. Number 81. And you will find the ball. So I mean, it’s pretty interesting if you’d if you watch against see that’s that’s what happened. But the whole time that they’re talking about this. Sterling Hinton, is it. No, they’re smiling. Right. And when pendants and finally gives the floor to him, he’s like, you know what? They if if if it’s working, you don’t change it. Right. So you just keep doing it as long as it’s not working. And then you go do your counters. It’s all a game theory, man. Right. Of course, I should have said it like sterling hidden, which is, you know, 20 decibels more in a higher pitch in a lot more interesting and inspirational, which I love that dude. But anyway. So anyway, the reason I bring that up is just. Are you worried about a team in FC s team figuring out what Jim Chaney is going to do before he does it? Or do you side with Sterling Hinton, which is saying don’t worry about it, man, because when it stops working, he’s got a wrinkle.

Will:
I would need to see more data

Joel:
Dr..

Will:
In general. I’m not worried about Jim Chaney. It would take a lot here. A lot going wrong. I think for four. Reasonable Tennessee fans just get off the Cheney bandwagon, given over who’s been and what he’s done. And just look at the personnel and some of the talent deficiency. He’s working with here. I think it falls in line with what we’ve already talked about, which is the lack of seriousness with which they took Georgia State, which absolutely falls on Pruitt. But, you know, some of that stuff is the bit in there about and Jesse Simonton and I think it’s pointed on Volk West has pointed this out, too, that, hey, when Tennessee’s receivers are not Marquez Callaway, Jauan Jennings or Palmer on the field, they’re gonna run. I figured that out. You know, just just watching, being at the game and seeing, OK, there’s Ramel Keyton and there’s Cedric Tillman. This is gonna be a run. And and more often than not, that’s been the case. The backup wide receivers are in. It’s gonna be a run again. That’s the sort of stuff that was BYU. That’s the sort of stuff that you can get away with against some of these other teams that you will get away with way less against a team like Florida.

Will:
But I’m hoping that those are that’s why I say any more data. I’m obviously I’m not pleased that they overlooked Georgia State to the degree that they did. But I’m also hopeful that they’ve got a different bag of tricks in store here for for what they’re gonna get against the gators and falls in line with. What they did last year. I mean, they. They they beat YouTube. They really dominated YouTube statistically, but only scored, whatever, 24 points last year. I mean, they were very vanilla and all they had because they didn’t want to show. And then they came out. It didn’t work, but they came out so hyper aggressive against the gators with a very different set of things. And then they went to even more different and newer things, some of which worked a little against Georgia and worked better against Auburn. So, yeah, I need I need more data. If we’re still talking about running behind Austin Pope in October, then we got a problem. But I’m not ready

Joel:
I

Will:
To go there yet.

Joel:
Don’t know if we’re running 300 yards a game behind Austin Pope,

Will:
You.

Joel:
I’d be OK

Will:
Yeah, sure.

Joel:
With that.

Will:
But

Joel:
Yeah,

Will:
A.

Joel:
Yeah, yeah. I just think that tendencies that are actually good things. I mean, how do you how do you spring a really, really good play? You set it up with tendencies and then you break the tendency when they’re not expecting it. So anyway, I just I just think it’s if that’s all you can do, that’s a problem. But if you’ve got other things that you can go to after you said set up the other team, then that’s fine. So against Florida, what what do you think is the what’s the number one thing that you think Tennessee needs to do to get the upset against gators Saturday?

Will:
I don’t know. I have been trying to figure that out. Other than. So there is an answer here. That’s the magical Garen Tanto plays better. Sure. That would be helpful. But besides that and the magical when the turnovers by three or more. Yeah. Also would be helpful. I’m curious about. They beat BYU to death with outside runs because Tennessee has way better athletes than BYU. On the edge. Not true. On Saturday. So can they? No. When in doubt is the first truth of Tennessee, Florida is a team that runs the ball best since to win. So is there a version of this running attack that does work when you’re not dealing with a speed advantage on the outside? I hope so. I think that would be interesting and I’m curious to see that. But I mean, honestly, we’re recording this here on Wednesday nights and I’m trying to figure out what to write about this game on Friday, because all of the angles I just don’t know with with backup quarterback at Florida. I don’t know. They looks better. Tennessee’s defense look better. Like I say with Bertucci in there, I get Bryce Thompson back. Is that going to make a big difference? I don’t know. There’s just a lot that I’m really unsure of. And and we talked about this a little in the Tennessee Florida history piece earlier this week. We had that stretch there of basically 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 of those cities. You really have the better team. They were favored in that stretch. They should have won 14, 15, 16, 17. And then last year. Now the gators go on to have a great season because of the time when that happened. They were just a team that lost to Kentucky and then waxed Tennessee. And that was obviously not a good feeling for anybody. But as it turned out, Florida ten win team top 10. Great job. Mullins, a good coach.

Joel:
Kentucky

Will:
All that stuff.

Joel:
Is also

Will:
But.

Joel:
Good.

Will:
Kentucky also good, as it turns

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Out. But the game itself. What am I supposed to take from I living in southwest Virginia? I have this conversation about the battle at Bristol all the time where Virginia Tech fans are kind of like, well, you know, and I say, hey, if you fumble it to a six times we’re supposed to beat, you look like that’s what’s supposed to happen and we’re supposed to beat you by multiple possessions, which is what happened. So, like, I’m I’m not talking trash or anything. I’m telling you, if you put it on the ground six times. Thank you. And we will probably anyone will probably take advantage of that situation. So I really what I said at the time to my if there are any of my hockey friends that are listening to this, I would like to see that game again. Tech, as it turns out, was pretty good that you’re two. And it was not a if you fumble it six times, it’s not a fair representation of who you are. Not a fair representation. Tennessee wasn’t a good football team last year, but the Florida game wasn’t a fair representation of who they were. If you I mean, again, the first 10 drives ended in something other than a punt or a touchdown. That’s so weird. So I don’t know. I just I’m not going back to this mode of Tennessee. Actually have a better team. No, of course they don’t. But how much better really was Florida than Tennessee last year? How much better is Florida with a backup quarterback right now than a Tennessee that lost Georgia state? I’ve got no idea. So I honestly. Do you have one Joe Doyle? Do you have a. Here’s what I think is most important other than the pixie dust for Garen Santo.

Joel:
I just think it’s turnovers.

Will:
Yeah. Which is I mean, that’s the underdog playbook, right?

Joel:
It’s the underdog playbook, and it’s just I again, I would like to see last year’s game again without the turnovers. What happens? You know, I think I heard Pruitt say in some presser earlier this season that he thought turnovers basically were four points. So that’s 24 points right there. You know, I just I I think if they play clean and force turnovers instead of giving them away, then then they’ve got a shot. And the problem is that the weirdness has never been wearing our colors in this thing. So I don’t know if we could figure out how to send him to the medical tent. Let’s do that.

Will:
Yeah. It’s so funny because even the it’s weird statistically, the 30 minutes of glory there in 2016, but that wasn’t weird. I mean, Tennessee just whipped him for about real time and I mean, nothing Joanne’s catch on the sideline. Obviously, the juggling was that was weird. But, you know, Taber, as we all know, was quite beat on that play. So, you know, the other times that Tennessee has has one in this series there, 2004, there’s weirdness obviously at the end with the the missed extra point and rightfully so. Some complain about the personal foul call that went against the gators and wasn’t offsetting. That was that was a big deal. Two thousand three tests. They just whipped them up front and won that game. Hail Mary was helpful, but it wasn’t the margin. Tennessee just really dominated them up front and won that game. A one anybody. I mean, classic game. I play that game ten times. Each side wins five great game 98 as he wins cause they get five turnovers. So yeah, I mean sometimes you’ve got to have you’ve got to have that stuff.

Joel:
That

Will:
But a

Joel:
I’m sorry,

Will:
Good.

Joel:
That those those I don’t I can’t remember all five turnovers in that 98 game, but I’m not sure those weren’t unforced errors. Those were Al Wilson.

Will:
Yeah. Yeah. I would say the only one. Deon Grant, the incredible individual play, the one the first one where Florida is going in to take a 7 and nothing lead. And that thing gets punched out at the goal line. Not not weird for the play. Just for what a huge I mean, you got to remember at that point in time, Tennessee hadn’t had a lead. Tennessee being a top 5 team for three or four years in a row and had a lead on Florida since halftime of three years earlier. So when those guys are getting ready to go up 7 or nothing and punch it in and Tennessee instead punches that out, that that felt like a that and then a long Sean Brown and run. I remember thinking this is not how this usually goes, you know? And we could use. There was one of those in the 15 game in the swamp that Jauan Jennings passed back to Josh Dobbs had

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
A feeling of this isn’t how this usually goes. So, yeah, we need one of those that

Joel:
Yeah,

Will:
Would that would be helpful.

Joel:
Well, not when I say the weirdness, it’s it’s like I have never seen that before and it really hurts.

Will:
Yep, yep.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
And Florida does to Tennessee what Tennessee used to do to Kentucky, which is why you think you’ve run out of ways to have your heart broken. But surprise. We’re going to block this kick in overtime and those turn it back for a touchdown and then beat you two overtimes later. So, yeah, I mean, that’s that’s that. That tends to be how that goes.

Joel:
Yeah. All right. So a freestyle, anything that I haven’t asked that you want to talk about. And if you can give it a rhythm and make it rhyme. Extra points.

Will:
Right. No, I think this it maybe I’ll read about this like the lost to BYU. It was freeing in a way that I think now there is no choice left but to embrace the reality of the situation, which you can do. We can argue about what rock bottom is. But the first step in recovery is admit that you have a problem that’s beyond your control. So I think there was a level of admit that’s. Whatever Georgia state actually revealed to BYU, the end of that game made you swallow it whole. So I just. All that to say this if Tennessee. The last time we beat these guys in 2016, it was almost a relief. Not the way the game itself played out. It was a thrilling surprise being down when we were down and then coming back in that game. But at kickoff, it’s like beating them would have been a relief. More than anything else. And it was a statement on whether or not Butch Jones can get it done and whether or not he’s back. And then obviously that was incorrect. After winning that game. But now, because of Tennessee being 1 and 2, because we’re not doing bowl math here yet, because we have no illusions about winning the east or anything like that. This really feels like a standalone. If Tizzy somehow finds a way to win this game, there’s kind of a freedom in being able to celebrate and appreciate it just for what it is and not having to tie it into.

Will:
What it was for former in terms of literally and figuratively, the game that made the difference between being a national champion and not being in that conversation and not in 2001. And for Butch Jones where it was. Is this going to. Is just going to work for you or not? There are duly in 2012 is just going to work for you or not. There’s there’s just a freedom in it to say, hey, look, if Tennessee wins this game, we still got lots of problems and we’re still probably going to be more likely to get to five wins than six. But man, it would be great. And there’s a bye week after that. It would be really great. And so I think it’s it would just kind of be a stand alone when where the larger than the largest narrative at play here is Tennessee is in bad shape. And we got a ways to go and we need to measure progress from the bottom and not to the top butts. So I don’t know. That strikes me as being different this week. The feel of it is it’s kind of untethered from everything else that’s happening in Tennessee is so big. This isn’t a prove anything. Game 4 Jeremy Pruitt. It’s it’s just an opportunity to go out there and beat your rival and we can celebrate it appropriately if that’s

Joel:
And

Will:
What happens.

Joel:
That’ll do it for this edition of the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast. We appreciate you tuning in. And hey, if you feel so inclined, we’d love for you to give us a rating and maybe leave us a review. Bonus points if you include the secret phrase maple cake donuts, we might even send you a box. It’ll be the same one we got back in 2012. But trust us, they taste exactly the same now as they did back then. So for Will Shelton Joel Hollingsworth. And this has been the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast.

Will:
I think back to my the like 2010 and 11, where I was traveling back and forth to seminary in the fall as well, like I did, I did many of these in my car in a parking lot somewhere because my roommate was not like it just wasn’t worth trying to explain to these people that I was only seeing a couple days a week what was going on. I was like, I’m just gonna go to the car for like an hour. So.

Joel:
He spoke.

Will:
Yep, this is breaking the covenant of the seminary.

Joel:
So what do you think about the game? My machine says 10.

Will:
You know, how would we feel about 10? That’s that’s the thing of. That would cover the spread. You’d be like, OK.

What the SPM comps say about Tennessee-Florida

The SPM took it on the chin in Week 3, going 17-24 (41.46%) on all games (excluding those involving FCS teams and those for which there were insufficient comps). Above what is usually a magic confidence level, it went 6-8 (42.86%) and within the usual magic confidence range, it managed only 3-3 (50%).

Last week, we pulled out all of the games involving FCS opponents so that we could monitor them separately. The early returns are mixed: It was better over the confidence level and in the confidence range as you’d expect, but slightly worse overall. It was a weird week, though, so we’ll just keep monitoring. Also, this was the first week we actually compiled results separately depending on whether the SPM complained about not having at least two good comps. The official results we post here are those that don’t include the games involving FCS opponents or those for which the SPM doesn’t have at least two good comps. That only starts in Week 3, though, as the official results for Weeks 1 and 2 include both of those categories as of now.

For the season so far, the SPM is 61-69 (46.92%) overall, 33-32 (50.77%) over the confidence threshold, and 17-11 (60.71%) within the confidence range.

Although it was a game involving an FCS opponent and thus didn’t count toward the official results, the SPM did get the Tennessee-Chattanooga game right, saying the Vols would easily cover the 24-28 point spread. Let’s take a look to see what it says this week about the Gators

Vols-Gators

We’re only three weeks into the 2019 season, and although there are now enough comps to work with, some of them are still a bit questionable. For that reason, we’re still using a combination of 2018 and 2019 data and weighing them accordingly.

2018

Without going through all of it, the 2018 data spits out an estimated score of Florida 41.4, Tennessee 18.9. That uses spot-on comps, but it’s last year’s teams.

From the perspective of 2019 Tennessee

Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 33.7
Florida scoring defense for the season: 13.7

The Florida scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):
BYU 27.7
Georgia State 43
Against BYU, Tennessee scored 26 points.
Against Georgia State, Tennessee scored 30 points.

Estimated points for Tennessee against Florida: 28

Those are bad scoring defense comps, with BYU and Georgia State both being significantly worse than Florida, so assuming the Vols are going to score about what they scored against those teams is suspect. Bottom line: Be wary of that 28 points for Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 22.3
Florida scoring offense for the season: 32.7

The Florida scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):
Georgia State 32
BYU 23.7
Against BYU, Tennessee allowed 29 points.
Against Georgia State, Tennessee allowed 38 points.

Estimated points for Florida against Tennessee: 33.5

Estimated score: Tennessee 28, Florida 33.5

From the perspective of 2019 Florida

Florida scoring offense for the season: 32.7
Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 22.3

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Florida opponent(s) (FBS only):
Kentucky 23.3
Miami (Florida) 17.3
Against Kentucky, Florida scored 29 points.
Against Miami (Florida), Florida scored 24 points.

Estimated points for Florida against Tennessee: 26.5

Florida scoring defense for the season: 13.7
Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 33.7

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Florida opponent(s):
Kentucky 32.3
Miami (Florida) 36
Against Kentucky, Florida allowed 21 points.
Against Miami (Florida), Florida allowed 20 points.

Estimated points for Tennessee against Florida: 20.5

That’s much better data to use to determine Tennessee points.

Estimated score: Florida 26.5, Tennessee 20.5

SPM Final Estimates

Putting all of that together, here’s what the SPM gets:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 23.1, Florida 33.8

SPM Final estimated spread: Florida -10.7

SPM Confidence level: 3.3

That confidence level puts it under our threshold for feeling very good about it, at least against the spread.

Eyeball adjustments

That looks about right for Florida’s points, but seems a wee bit high on Tennessee’s points . For that reason, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Florida 34, Tennessee 20.

Other predictions from other systems

The Vegas line has Florida as the favorite at between -14 and -14.5 with an over/under of 48.5 – 49. That translates to something approximating Tennessee 17, Florida 31.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Florida 35-17 and gives the Vols a 14% chance of winning. SP+ is 54.3% overall and 64% on games for which it and the spread are at least three points apart.

As I said above, for the season, our SPM is 61-69 (46.92%) overall, 33-32 (50.77%) over the confidence threshold, and 17-11 (60.71%) within the confidence range. That would put our overall number 38th on this projection tracker. Our favorites-only number would be 1st. Well, second behind Bill’s and only until everyone else was allowed to use their favorites-only number.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 13.9% chance of winning.

Bottom line

Florida by 14 seems about right. Let’s hope right is wrong this week.

What are y’all thinking?

Time and TV for the Vols game this week, plus other games of interest

We’re a quarter of the way in, but now the real season starts as the Vols head into SEC play against the Florida Gators this Saturday in Gainesville. Tennessee is a sizeable underdog, although that often doesn’t matter as much as which color jersey The Weirdness is wearing. Sure, he’s usually on the wrong team, but he has to graduate at some point, doesn’t he?

Here’s when and where to find the games that matter to Vols fans this week, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them. First up is the list curated just for Vols fans. The full schedule follows that.

Thursday, September 19, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Houston Tulane 8:00 PM ESPN Live It's football

Not too exciting, but what else are you doing Thursday night in the fall?

Friday, September 20, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Utah USC 9:00 PM FS1 Live It's football

Maybe?

Gameday, September 21, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON
Texas Tech Oklahoma 12:00 PM FOX Channel Hop Why not?
Texas A&M Arkansas 12:00 PM ESPN Channel Hop Former coaching candidate
Northern Illinois Vanderbilt 12:00 PM SECN Channel Hop Future Vols opponent
AFTERNOON
Clemson North Carolina 3:30 PM ABC Channel Hop Closer than expected?
Ole Miss Alabama 3:30 PM CBS Channel Hop Future Vols opponent
Virginia Notre Dame 3:30 PM NBC Channel Hop Top 20 matchup
Towson Florida 4:00 PM SECN Channel Hop Former Vols opponent
USC Washington 3:30 PM FOX Channel Hop Top 20 matchup
EVENING
Mississippi State Auburn 7:00 PM ESPN Channel Hop/DVR Future Vols opponent
Kentucky South Carolina 7:30 PM SECN Channel Hop/DVR Future Vols opponents

It’s Vols-Gators at high noon on ESPN in The Swamp, Tennessee hoping for an upset. A couple of future Vols opponents are also in action, but those games shouldn’t provide much entertainment or education.

In the afternoon slot, it’s No. 8 Auburn at No. 17 Texas A&M on CBS. Four future Vols opponents — Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Missouri — are in two games at the same time, so check in on them every once in a while or DVR them to watch later.

The game of the week is No. 7 Notre Dame at No. 3 Georgia at 8:00 on CBS. Who are you rooting for in that one? I’m going green.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Date Away Home Time TV
9/19/19 Houston Tulane 8:00 PM ESPN
9/20/19 Florida International Louisiana Tech 8:00 PM CBSSN
9/20/19 Utah USC 9:00 PM FS1
9/20/19 Air Force Boise State 9:00 PM ESPN2
9/21/19 Southern Mississippi Alabama 12:00 PM ESPN2
9/21/19 LSU Vanderbilt 12:00 PM SECN
9/21/19 Tennessee Florida 12:00 PM ESPN
9/21/19 Michigan Wisconsin 12:00 PM FOX
9/21/19 California Ole Miss 12:00 PM ESPNU
9/21/19 Western Michigan Syracuse 12:00 PM ACCN
9/21/19 Elon Wake Forest 12:00 PM ACCNX
9/21/19 Boston College Rutgers 12:00 PM BTN
9/21/19 UL Monroe Iowa State 12:00 PM FS1
9/21/19 UConn Indiana 12:00 PM BTN
9/21/19 Michigan State Northwestern 12:00 PM ABC
9/21/19 Morgan State Army 12:00 PM CBSSN
9/21/19 Coastal Carolina UMass 1:00 PM
9/21/19 Louisiana Ohio 2:00 PM ESPN+
9/21/19 Troy Akron 3:00 PM ESPN+
9/21/19 Central Connecticut Eastern Michigan 3:00 PM ESPN3
9/21/19 Miami (OH) Ohio State 3:30 PM BTN
9/21/19 Auburn Texas A&M 3:30 PM CBS
9/21/19 UCF Pittsburgh 3:30 PM ABC
9/21/19 Washington BYU 3:30 PM ABC
9/21/19 SMU TCU 3:30 PM FS1
9/21/19 Temple Buffalo 3:30 PM ESPNU
9/21/19 Bowling Green Kent State 3:30 PM ESPN3
9/21/19 Wyoming Tulsa 3:30 PM CBSSN
9/21/19 South Alabama UAB 3:30 PM NFL
9/21/19 Louisville Florida State 3:30 PM ESPN
9/21/19 Appalachian State North Carolina 3:30 PM ACCNX
9/21/19 Central Michigan Miami 4:00 PM ACCN
9/21/19 Kentucky Mississippi State 4:00 PM SECN
9/21/19 South Carolina Missouri 4:00 PM SECN
9/21/19 West Virginia Kansas 4:30 PM ESPN+
9/21/19 New Mexico State New Mexico 4:30 PM
9/21/19 Hampton Liberty 6:00 PM ESPN+
9/21/19 William & Mary East Carolina 6:00 PM ESPN3
9/21/19 Wagner Florida Atlantic 6:00 PM ESPN+
9/21/19 Oregon Stanford 7:00 PM ESPN
9/21/19 Old Dominion Virginia 7:00 PM ESPN2
9/21/19 Southern Illinois Arkansas State 7:00 PM ESPN3
9/21/19 Georgia State Texas State 7:00 PM ESPN+
9/21/19 Baylor Rice 7:00 PM CBSSN
9/21/19 Ball State NC State 7:00 PM ESPNU
9/21/19 Charlotte Clemson 7:30 PM ACCN
9/21/19 Oklahoma State Texas 7:30 PM ABC
9/21/19 San Jose State Arkansas 7:30 PM SECN
9/21/19 UTSA North Texas 7:30 PM
9/21/19 Notre Dame Georgia 8:00 PM CBS
9/21/19 Nevada UTEP 8:00 PM ESPN3
9/21/19 Nebraska Illinois 8:00 PM BTN
9/21/19 Colorado Arizona State 10:00 PM PAC12
9/21/19 Sacramento State Fresno State 10:00 PM
9/21/19 Toledo Colorado State 10:15 PM ESPN2
9/21/19 UCLA Washington State 10:30 PM ESPN
9/21/19 Utah State San Diego State 10:30 PM CBSSN
9/21/19 Central Arkansas Hawai'i 11:59 PM

Thirty Years of Tennessee & Florida

Just before kickoff of the first Tennessee-Florida game as Eastern Division rivals in 1992 (after the old SEC rotation brought them on each other’s schedule in 1990 and 1991), one of my dad’s friends made a comment in our section about how the Gators would soon become Tennessee’s biggest rival. To my 10 year old brain, that was blasphemy – and it still sounds a little that way at 37 – but if we’d all known what was coming, we might’ve agreed.

The other answer to that question is a rivalry built on streaks. This one, turning 30 this week, has arguably carried a more potent brand of both agony and ecstasy. Alabama and Tennessee take turns being big brother. With the Gators, Tennessee has been little brother that wins just enough for us to want more.

Images from those wins are burned in our memories. Dale Carter to open the second half. Mose Phillips in the rain. No-sir-ree. Travis Stephens vs Guss Scott. James Banks and James Wilhoit. And Jauan Jennings gleefully coming down the sideline.

A question we asked a lot during the Butch Jones era was some form of, “Doesn’t Tennessee actually have the better team this year?” It’s the one we wanted to be true all those years in the 90’s, when losses could at least be chalked up to elite competition. As lesser Florida teams still found a way to turn the Vols into even lesser versions of themselves, the rivalry evolved into a new level of frustration. The Gators were, for a long time, the team standing between Tennessee and the top of the mountain. Most recently they’ve become the team that’s kept Tennessee from being “back”.

There’s a world of should’ve packed into this decade with the Gators. In the mid-90’s, Florida took hope away early. In the last seven years, they’ve stolen it late. In 2012 the Vols led 20-13 with five minutes left in the third quarter and lost (by 17). In 2014 the Vols led 9-0 on the next-to-last play of the third quarter when Justin Worley was blindsided. The Vols lost. In 2015 the Vols scored to take a 26-14 lead with 10 minutes left in The Swamp, chose not to go for two, and it all went very bad from there. And in 2017 the Vols had 1st-and-goal at the nine with a minute left, settled for three to tie, and you know how that ended too.

So it was almost nostalgic when Florida took Tennessee’s hope right away last season, a hyper-aggressive gameplan backfiring into six turnovers and Tennessee’s first ten drives ending in something other than a punt or a touchdown.

Tennessee doesn’t have the better team this year on paper. In 30 years of doing this, the Vols have been favored to beat Florida seven times (via Covers.com). And the Vols have beaten Florida seven times. Three times, Vegas got it right: the Vols rolled in that first meeting against Spurrier in 1990 from -4.5 to a 45-3 win. Tennessee was -3 in 2004 when James Wilhoit went from goat to hero. And three years ago, the Vols turned -4 into a 21-3 hole into 35 straight points.

Four times, the Vols have lost as a favorite: nightmarish first halves in the rain in 1996 and 2002 in Neyland, that nightmarish finish in 2012, and four years ago in The Swamp, the only time Tennessee has been favored in Gainesville (-1) since the rivalry was played annually.

(I’d rate that loss, by the way, as third-worst of my lifetime. 2001 LSU is the undisputed champion, and I hope stays there for the rest of my life. 1990 Alabama is number two. But I think everything about that 2015 loss – the series of horrendous coaching decisions in those last 10 minutes, the carryover fury from Oklahoma, and the fact that it cost the Vols the SEC East when other infamous losses cost Tennessee far less – it’s the worst of a very bad time these last 12 years.)

Four times, Tennessee pulled the upset. In the downpour in 1992 at +4.5 with a young Phillip Fulmer on the sideline. The eventual National Champions were +3 when Collins Cooper sailed wide. The last win in The Swamp in 2003 came with the Vols +3. And, of course, the +16.5 in December 2001 in what is still the best football game involving one of my teams I’ve ever seen.

This year, the Vols opened at +12.5. It quickly swelled to +14.5. Despite only beating the Gators seven times in 29 tries, +14.5 is the third biggest line the Vols have faced in this series, trailing the 16.5 they turned around in 2001, and the +30 they easily covered when everyone thought Urban Meyer might actually attempt murder on Lane Kiffin.

Unlike the current nature of the Alabama rivalry, where the Vols have faced lines of 29.5, 36.5, 28, and 29 in this decade, Florida is always right there within reach. It’s what makes it hurt more when the Vols fail to grab it. And it’s what makes us hope – even this year – that another Saturday we’ll remember forever might get added to our list.

Tennessee Vols statistical ranking trends – after Chattanooga

As you’d expect against an FCS foe, the Vols’ national stat rankings improved quite a bit this week. Here’s a closer look.

Offense

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing was in the Bottom 30 last week

Climbed into the Top 30: Red zone offense, tackles for loss allowed

Fell to the Bottom 30: 4th down conversion percentage

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing this week (because nothing was in the Top 30 last week!)

Nearly everything is better on offense, with the exception of the passing game.

Defense

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Scoring defense, which went from 112th to 55th. Woo for shutouts against FCS opponents.

Climbed into the Top 30: Team passing efficiency defense, passing yards allowed, and red zone defense. Also, passes intercepted, when compared to the most recent ranking in 2018.

Fell to the Bottom 30: Nothing, although 3rd down conversion percentage defense remains there even with a slight improvement.

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing, technically, although sacks fell dramatically from just out of the Top 30 all the way to 79th.

Most everything is improving, with the exception of sacks and tackles for loss. Third down is still a problem.

Special Teams

Special teams is currently the strength of the team by a long shot. The worst ranking here is No. 30, in kickoff returns. Net punting is one spot away from being the legit best in the nation.

Turnovers and Penalties

Five turnovers this week against the Mocs shook things up here, with turnovers gained teleporting straight from the cellar (No. 105) to the penthouse (No. 20), turnover margin going from No. 113 to No. 32, and the others seeing vast improvement. Regarding penalties, the number of them improved, but the actual penalty yards took a bit of a hit.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine: Post-Chattanooga

The Vols beat an FCS team 45-0 this past Saturday, which doesn’t really mean much with the SEC slate looming. But they beat an FCS team 45-0 this past Saturday, which means they did what they were supposed to do.

The first two weeks of the season, the Vols didn’t do what they were supposed to do, so living up to expectations is an improvement. Does it mean we can circle back to the preseason expectations we had for this team for the remaining games of the season? Probably not. Not yet, anyway. But it does mean that we can probably adjust them upward just a wee bit from where they were last week.

We learned more about some of the Vols’ future opponents this weekend, too. Alabama and Georgia were about what we expected. Kentucky and South Carolina perhaps better than expected. And Florida and Mississippi State look perhaps a little less intimidating today than they did this time last week.

Bottom line, I’m adjusting my expectations for the Vols upward just a bit, and I’m shuffling and readjusting some of the remaining opponents.

With those adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 3.65. Woo. A good showing against the Gators will do wonders for these numbers.

  • Preseason: 6.55
  • After Week 0: 6.6
  • After Week 1: 2.87
  • After Week 2: 2.37
  • After Week 3: 3.65

Details: I have Alabama and Georgia at 5%. In my second tier, I have Florida and South Carolina both at 25%, and in my third tier, I have both Kentucky and Missouri at 30%. Mississippi State and Vanderbilt are inching toward tossups, but aren’t there yet, as I have them both at 40%. I have UAB at 65%.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 1-2 (0-0), 3rd in the SEC East

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 2-1 (0-0), 1st in the Sun Belt East

So much for the “Maybe these guys are better than we think” talk.

BYU Cougars

Current record: 2-1 (0-0)

But wait, maybe these guys are, in fact, better than we thought. Beating a ranked team has to count for something, right?

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 1-2 (0-0), 4th in the Southern Conference

The Vols’ future opponents

Florida Gators

Current record: 3-0 (1-0), 1st in the SEC East

Kentucky had this game won, at least twice. They looked like the better team most of the game until they lost the lead late. And then they still had a chance to hit the go-ahead field goal with about a minute remaining. This was in character for Kentucky and in character for Florida, which I hate to say because if we see an in-character game between Tennessee and Florida this weekend, we’re in for another new and novel heartbreak. The Vols need to break character.

Also, Gators quarterback Feleipe Franks left the game on a cart with an air cast and is expected to miss the rest of the season. But it was backup QB Kyle Trask who won that game for Florida. We might have preferred to see Franks.

Bottom line, Kentucky looks better than I thought, but Florida looks worse than I thought.

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 3-0 (1-0), 1st in the SEC East

Ho-hum. Nothing to see here.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 2-1 (0-0), 3rd in the SEC West

The video recap of this one suggests that Mississippi State is dangerous, both to others and to itself. They pulled their starting quarterback after a couple of picks and gave up a 100-yard kickoff return right after finally getting a go-ahead touchdown. Chalk this one up more to mistakes than overall aptitude.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 3-0 (1-0), 1st in the SEC West

Forget the final score here for a second. The Gamecocks made this look like a real contest for much of the game, sometimes looking like world-beaters themselves and sometimes making Alabama look vulnerable. Yeah, Bama ultimately did what Bama ultimately does, so there’s not much change in attitude about them, but South Carolina looks better than I thought they would, especially after losing Jake Bentley.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 1-2 (0-1), 5th in the SEC East

See above.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 2-0 (0-0), 1st in C-USA West

Off this week.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 2-1 (0-1), 5th in the SEC East

See the bit on Florida above. The Kentucky-Florida game was much closer than the score suggested. The Wildcats really should have won and looked like the better team most of the night. Something clicked off when Kyle Trask took over for Florida.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 2-1 (0-0), 3rd in the SEC East

Rushing touchdown. Receiving touchdown. Both a punt return and a kickoff for a touchdown. Defense pitched a shutout. Fine day, even considering the opposition.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-2 (0-1), 5th in the SEC East

The Commodores were off this week.

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

Ominous offensive start gives way to the expected for Vols against Mocs

Looking to give the system a hard reboot, Tennessee quarterback Jarrett Guarantano dropped back, wound up, and launched a deep ball to one of his most trusted receivers.

It should have been intercepted.

An ominous start against an inferior opponent, to say the least.

Forget the fact that Ty Chandler opened the game with an impressive 58-yard kickoff return. We Vols fans have seen too many happy moments immediately swallowed by malevolent forces not to be vulnerable to the oh noes. So, that near-pick on the first play from scrimmage made you grimace and brace for another day of new and novel disappointment.

But it was thankfully short-lived because immediately after that, the machine finally came to life. Tim Jordan ran for 9 yards, Eric Gray for another 8, and then Jordan for another 4. Then Chandler got another first down on a 7-yard run and hit the checkerboards on the next play with a 13-yard dash to the end zone. Five plays, all on the ground, for a 41-yard touchdown drive aided by Chandler’s kickoff return to set up the short field position.

With the exception of an early live-fire experiment for backup quarterback Brian Maurer in the third possession, the Vols offense scored on every drive until the third quarter was nearly over, and with Tennessee leading 45-0 by that time, the game was over as well.

Meanwhile, the defense not only pitched a shutout, it went on a turnover binge. Nigel Warrior returned an interception 22 yards on Chattanooga’s first offensive possession. After forcing a three-and-out on the second, the Vols defense let the Mocs drive down to within sniffing distance of the end zone but recovered a fumble to end that threat. The defense got off the field early after another three-and-out on another possession and then ended the next one with the first of two interceptions by Jeremy Banks.

By the end of the day, the Tennessee defense held Chattanooga to 227 total yards and caused five turnovers despite playing half the game with its second- and third-string. The Vols offense ran for 195 yards and threw for 165 and protected the ball the entire game. And the special teams even got into the action, blocking a punt and returning it for a touchdown.

Guarantano went 7-8 for 142 yards and 3 touchdowns in his short day. Six different running backs put up more than 10 yards, Chandler leading the way with 46. And eight different guys caught passes with three of them — Jauan Jennings, Marquez Callaway, and Cedric Tillman — getting in the end zone.

All of this, of course, was accomplished against an outmatched team from an entirely different league. But we don’t have to go too far back in the archives to find disappointing results against inferior opponents, so it was good to hear the machine hum again.

It’s not like we weren’t all wondering if it was all a pile of rubble already, especially after Guarantano’s first pass looked more like the last two weeks than how he looked last year.

But the awful beginning gave way to finally seeing what we actually expected.

Who know? Perhaps the season itself can follow the same script.

Your Gameday Gameplan: Tennessee-Chattanooga

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the Vols looking to forget the last two weeks and reboot the season right here and right now. Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Vols fans. Where and when to find the Vols game on TV, what other games to watch today as well, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

The best other games for Vols fans to watch today

Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated just for Vols fans:

Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON
Chattanooga Tennessee 12:00 PM ET SECN Live Go Vols!
Arkansas State 3 Georgia 12:00 PM ET ESPN2 DVR Future Vols Opponent
Kansas State Mississippi State 12:00 PM ET ESPN DVR Future Vols Opponent
AFTERNOON
2 Alabama South Carolina 3:30 PM ET CBS Live Future Vols Opponents
24 USC BYU 3:30 PM ET ABC Check in Former Vols Opponent
19 Iowa Iowa State 4:00 PM ET FS1 Check in Rivalry
EVENING
9 Florida Kentucky 7:00 PM ET ESPN Live Future Vols Opponents
SE Missouri St Missouri 7:30 PM ET SECN DVR Future Vols Opponent
Georgia State WestMI 7:00 PM ET ESP+ Watch the score Former Vols Opponent
1 Clemson Syracuse 7:30 PM ET ABC Check in Who's house?

And here’s a searchable version of the entire college football TV schedule for this week:

Date Away Home Time TV
9/13/19 North Carolina Wake Forest 6:00 PM ET ESPN
9/13/19 Kansas Boston College 7:30 PM ET ACCN
9/13/19 20 WashSt Houston 9:15 PM ET ESPN
9/14/19 Miami (OH) Cincinnati 12:00 PM ET ESPNU
9/14/19 Arkansas State 3 Georgia 12:00 PM ET ESPN2
9/14/19 EastMi Illinois 12:00 PM ET BTN
9/14/19 Kansas State MissSt 12:00 PM ET ESPN
9/14/19 Pittsburgh 13 Penn State 12:00 PM ET ABC
9/14/19 Chattanooga Tennessee 12:00 PM ET SECN
9/14/19 16 Furman Virginia Tech 12:00 PM ET ACCN
9/14/19 NCSU West Virginia 12:00 PM ET FS1
9/14/19 6 Ohio State Indiana 12:00 PM ET FOX
9/14/19 21 Maryland Temple 12:00 PM ET CBSS
9/14/19 Citadel Georgia Tech 12:30 PM ET CHSS
9/14/19 Air Force Colorado 1:00 PM ET PACN
9/14/19 FlaAtl Ball State 2:00 PM ET ESP+
9/14/19 Norfolk State Cstl Carolina 2:00 PM ET ESPN3
9/14/19 New Mexico 7 Notre Dame 2:30 PM ET NBC
9/14/19 Akron CentMi 3:00 PM ET ESP+
9/14/19 GaSo Minnesota 3:30 PM ET BTN
9/14/19 East Carolina Navy 3:30 PM ET CBSS
9/14/19 UNLV Northwestern 3:30 PM ET BTN
9/14/19 Memphis South Alabama 3:30 PM ET ESPNU
9/14/19 Oklahoma State Tulsa 3:30 PM ET ESPN2
9/14/19 Stanford 17 UCF 3:30 PM ET ESPN
9/14/19 Army West Point UTSA 3:30 PM ET NFLN
9/14/19 2 Alabama South Carolina 3:30 PM ET CBS
9/14/19 24 USC BYU 3:30 PM ET ABC
9/14/19 Colorado State Arkansas 4:00 PM ET SECN
9/14/19 Bethune-Cookman Miami (FL) 4:00 PM ET ACCN
9/14/19 Arizona State 18 Michigan State 4:00 PM ET FOX
9/14/19 23 SE Louisiana Ole Miss 4:00 PM ET SECN
9/14/19 Louisville WestKy 4:00 PM ET STAD
9/14/19 19 Iowa Iowa State 4:00 PM ET FS1
9/14/19 North Texas California 4:15 PM ET PACN
9/14/19 Cal Poly Oregon State 4:15 PM ET PACN
9/14/19 Idaho State 11 Utah 4:15 PM ET PACN
9/14/19 Louisiana Tech Bowling Green 5:00 PM ET ESP+
9/14/19 Idaho Wyoming 5:00 PM ET ESPN3
9/14/19 Massachusetts Charlotte 6:00 PM ET ESPN3
9/14/19 Buffalo Liberty 6:00 PM ET ESP+
9/14/19 SC State South Florida 6:00 PM ET ESPN3
9/14/19 Southern Miss Troy 6:00 PM ET ESP+
9/14/19 Ohio Marshall 6:30 PM ET FCBK
9/14/19 Kent State 8 Auburn 7:00 PM ET ESPN2
9/14/19 New Hampshire FIU 7:00 PM ET ESPN3
9/14/19 Duke MiddTn 7:00 PM ET FCBK
9/14/19 6 Weber State Nevada 7:00 PM ET ESPN3
9/14/19 Texas State SMU 7:00 PM ET ESPN3
9/14/19 Lamar 16 Texas A&M 7:00 PM ET ESPNU
9/14/19 Murray State Toledo 7:00 PM ET ESPN3
9/14/19 Georgia State WestMI 7:00 PM ET ESP+
9/14/19 9 Florida Kentucky 7:00 PM ET ESPN
9/14/19 Northwestern St 4 LSU 7:30 PM ET SECN
9/14/19 Texas Southern Louisiana 7:30 PM ET ESPN3
9/14/19 19 SE Missouri St Missouri 7:30 PM ET SECN
9/14/19 TCU Purdue 7:30 PM ET BTN
9/14/19 Florida State 25 Virginia 7:30 PM ET ACCN
9/14/19 Hawaii 23 Washington 7:30 PM ET PACN
9/14/19 1 Clemson Syracuse 7:30 PM ET ABC
9/14/19 NIU Nebraska 8:00 PM ET FS1
9/14/19 San Diego State NMSt 8:00 PM ET
9/14/19 Missouri State Tulane 8:00 PM ET ESPN3
9/14/19 5 Oklahoma UCLA 8:00 PM ET FOX
9/14/19 12 Texas Rice 8:00 PM ET CBSS
9/14/19 Portland State 22 Boise State 10:15 PM ET ESPN2
9/14/19 Texas Tech Arizona 10:30 PM ET ESPN
9/14/19 20 Montana 15 Oregon 10:45 PM ET PACN

GRT games and contests

While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.

GRT game-week audio

The podcasts this week were preempted by Zofran, Pepto Bismal, and Sprite, but you can find Will’s regular Friday appearance with Josh Ward and Heather Harrington on WNML’s Sports 180 here.

Pre-game prep

To catch up on your pre-game reading, have a look at our game preview posts from earlier this week:

Go Vols!

Progress, Competitiveness, and Investment

Two weeks ago today, we talked about how progress was the expectation, and how much would be the fun part. More important than the difference between 6-6 and 7-5 would be how the team performed play-for-play a year after losing six games by four-plus possessions. Preseason projections from SP+ had the Vols within two possessions of every opponent except Alabama; FPI had the Vols within one possession of every opponent except the Tide.

The last two weeks have changed the conversation considerably. Even if the Vols fought their way back to 5-7 – which feels like an accomplishment from here, as our expected win totals this week are hovering around 3.45 – there is, of course, an actual difference between 5-7 and 6-6. Coming that close to bowl eligibility at the end of November would make us re-live the pain of the BYU loss.

Progress may be best measured now not in the distance to the top, but the distance from the bottom. That being the case, there’s an even more compelling argument to focus on what this team does on every snap…because there is still plenty of opportunity to be far more competitive this season.

In that department, you’re going to want to believe in FPI more than SP+. Tennessee’s projected margin of victory after this week:

SP+FPI
at Florida-21.6-14.8
Georgia-23.4-14.7
Mississippi St-11.8-6
at AlabamaShut your eyes!Don’t look at it!
South Carolina-5-4.9
UAB18.620.1
at Kentucky-7.6-6.2
at Missouri-14.7-8.6
Vanderbilt6.97.8

Both models have the Vols favored only against UAB and Vanderbilt after this Saturday, where Tennessee’s line is about where it opened against Georgia State. FPI’s current projection has in part become SP+’s preseason projection: two-score losses to Florida and Georgia, a third squeaking by with Missouri at -8.6, but generally competitive in every other non-Alabama game.

Obviously, a 4-8 season isn’t going to be viewed as an overall success. It’s hard to re-calibrate expectations after a huge upset; it would’ve been interesting to see how the 2016 Vols were received if they beat Vanderbilt to earn a Sugar Bowl bid at 9-3, but still gave away the SEC East after losing to the Gamecocks at -14.5.

Still, week to week what this team (and its fans) need is the idea that Tennessee can compete. We’ll learn a lot about that against Florida. With a win against Chattanooga, the Vols can technically still carry the bowl eligibility conversation to the South Carolina game, with any win before then incredibly helpful. Between now and then, if the Vols can be relatively competitive with Florida, Georgia, and Mississippi State, it will not only be an important sign of progress, it will keep more fans in Neyland Stadium and invested wherever we find ourselves.

The last two weeks are a great reminder that we never know exactly what’s going to happen week to week. It’s a really tough road to six wins now. But the kind of progress that keeps people invested is still available. We’ll see what signs of life show up against Chattanooga.