After playing one of the best teams in the country, the Tennessee defense dropped a bit in the NCAA’s official stat categories, but the offense actually had some positive movement.
Offense
Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing.
Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing.
Fell into the Bottom 30: Completion Percentage
Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing.
Honestly, these trends are not bad after playing one of the nation’s best defenses. Need a better run game and more points.
Defense
Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing.
Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing.
Fell into the Bottom 30: Nothing.
Fell out of the Top 30: Team Passing Efficiency Defense, Passing Yards Allowed.
Kind of what you’d expect against an elite offense.
Special Teams
Punting has been a strength of the team most of the season, but punting was bad enough in just this one game to drop it from No. 2 in the nation two games ago all the way to No. 50 now.
Turnovers and Penalties
Not a lot of movement on penalties this week, but the team lost some ground on turnovers.
When looking at Tennessee’s current commitment list as well
as the realistic targets on the board as of early October, what stands out is
how heavily tilted towards the defensive side of the ball those lists in total
are. Four of the top five commitments (of 14 in total) as ranked by 247Sports
are defensive players, and, importantly, it is isn’t so difficult to find
upwards of 8-10 realistic and high quality targets that the Vols could close
with on defense, each of whom would upgrade their respective positions.
On the flip side, as deficient at Tennessee’s roster is when
compared to top flight SEC teams overall, what always stands out to the naked
eye is the lack of dynamic playmaker the Vols have on offense. Yes, Tennessee has a nice corps of WRs, but
not only are a large portion of them seniors but also none of them are true
gamebreakers. Similarly, Tennessee’s RB
room includes some good talent, but only Eric Gray is a) young, and b) realistically
has gamebreaking potential. One could
argue Ty Chandler does too, but in the end he’s just not the kind of RB who is
going to take over a game, and he’s also set to enter his final season in 2020. When it comes to Tennessee’s 2020 recruiting
class, there is some good news and some bad news when it comes to addressing
this dearth of playmakers. The good news
starts with UT’s commitment from one of the top QBs in the country in Harrison Bailey, who projects as the kind of triggerman that just makes an
entire offense run and look better.
Further, the Vols also have commitments from three really good looking
WR/ATH prospects. Jalin Hyatt is a track star whose senior film is so strong that
Alabama has started sniffing around.
Similarly, Jimmy Calloway’s
performance has drawn an offer from Oklahoma.
And while Darion Williamson –
the most likely of the trio to be cataloged as an “Athlete” due to his large
size at 6’3 and over 200 lbs – hasn’t received that kind of recruiting
attention, he’s nevertheless clearly a top-shelf athlete with outstanding
potential as a big WR with good-to-great speed.
At the same time, Tennessee is firmly in the mix for two 5-star WRs in Rakim Jarrett (an LSU commitment who is
taking an Alabama OV this month) and Arik
Gilbert (for whom the Vols could be fading but won’t give up on until someone
else sees a fax come through).
dpriority4
However, it must be said that the Vols will definitely have
to fight to hold onto Hyatt and perhaps to a larger extent Calloway – noted as
such because Hyatt’s parents have been public about him being a firm commitment
while Calloway has made public comments that he’s less than 100% committed and
is interested in taking other visits, to OU and even UK, although his presence
at the UGA was a good sign. At the same
time, not only are the Vols potentially fighting an uphill battle for the
aforementioned Jarrett and Gilbert, who are elite talents for sure, but both of
them are on the bigger side and could potentially end up a more similar than
not to a guy like Josh Palmer that’s already on the roster – big and physical
with some real speed but maybe not a true threat to turn a 5-yard out and make
it into an 80-yard TD. Hyatt and
Calloway do look like those kinds of players, but put simply the Vols need more
of them, both at the WR spot as well as at RB, where their one commitment Tee Hodge is much more of a bruiser (and
a potentially very good one, at that, which is why Wisconsin still isn’t giving
up on him). Unfortunately Tennessee’s
board just doesn’t have a ton of that kind of player on there right now.
That said, there are some players who the Vols have been
recruiting throughout the process but as of yet haven’t pressed for that they could
and perhaps should circle back on. Each
of them are the kind of player described above, and although some of them are
committed elsewhere the Vols could potentially reinsert themselves into the
respective recruitments should they turn up the heat:
0
ATH Jimmy Holiday,
from Madison Central HS in Mississippi, is a TCU commitment who the Tennessee
staff circled back on during its bye week.
Holiday, who the Horn Frogs are recruiting as a QB, is ~6’0, 180 pounds who
put up the 7th best overall SPARQ score at a Nike Regional event over
the summer that included over 300 other prospects, running a sub-4.4 40-yard
dash. What do you think of when you
think about a TCU offense? Smaller, shifty
WRs who are borderline unguardable and very difficult to get down when they
have the ball in space – Holiday fits that bill. With the Vols theoretically in the market for
a 2nd QB in this class anyway, a multi-purpose player who could have
a package as a freshman QB and also help as a WR could be what Tennessee is looking
for. Expect the Vols to try and get Holiday,
who has expressed a willingness to take some trips, to Knoxville for an
official visit before the December signing period
WR Khi Mathieu is
a Memphis commitment from New Orleans who received a relatively early Vol offer
but ultimately chose the Tigers over fellow AAC schools like local Tulane, etc,
who were truly pushing at the time.
Matheiu, the cousin of the famous Honey Badger, is a very good athlete
who’s less known for elite speed and more known for his leaping ability and balls
skills both in the air and after the catch.
While Memphis may be a Group of Five program just a few years removed
from being alternatively a complete afterthought and also a laughingstock, under
Coach Mike Norvell they have produced some explosive offenses built around this
kind of playmaker. Notably, he hails
from St Augustine HS, where current Vols RB Coach David Johnson was the head
coach in the not-too-distant past – this connection is what drew the two
parties together initially and what could, should the Vols choose, get them
back in it.
RB Michael Drennen II
is a 4-star All-Purpose Back from Ohio who right now has Kentucky and Ohio
State as his top two choices. The 5’11, 200
pound prospect has played multiple positions during his high school career and
is an explosive playmaker all over the field.
The Vols were in a smallish top group he named not too long ago but so
far haven’t gotten much traction. From
this vantage point Tennessee’s best bet is to have the Buckeyes be unwilling to
take him due to space constraints and then turn up the heat in order to beat
out a perennial doormat in Kentucky.
Other dynamic offensive prospects the Vols could still get (more)
involved with include WR Dazalin Worsham,
a former Alabama commitment; WR Kris Abrams-Draine,
an Ole Miss commitment who at one time had the Vols as his leader before they
slowed things down a bit; and RB Jahmry
Gibbs from Dalton, GA who’s in the middle of a ridiculous senior season
that has drawn attention from college football’s biggest players but who
to-date hasn’t seen much interest from Tennessee. Tennessee could also look to the JUCO ranks
later in the cycle, and of course could also dip into the grad transfer market
later on. However they go about it, the
Tennessee staff simply must upgrade its roster from a playmaker perspective,
and enlarging its board of prospects is the first step towards making that happen.
lsdpriority50
One of my favorite things about New Testament Greek is the way joy (chara) acts as a function of grace (charis). Happiness is circumstantial, etc., but joy is rooted in the idea and presence of grace: the one gives cause for the other.
I like this idea because sharing in joy together – to rejoice (chairo) – comes with the notion that you’ve been through some stuff together. A shared awareness of one’s need for grace helps create the opportunity to celebrate when you have it.
Plenty of hearts have been blessed around here this fall, the latest of a dozen that’s made us all queasy. We’ve been doing this long enough now to know hope always comes back at the start of each season; that’s what it does, and what we do. But it died in record time this year, with immediate resurrections denied by our Mormon friends at the last minute and all the old familiar places in Gainesville.
Capital-H Hope is what Phillip Fulmer hired Jeremy Pruitt for, eschewing the safety of Les Miles and the familiarity of Tee Martin for a guy who might win championships or might just be a really good defensive coordinator. The answer will continue to be, “We need more data,” for a while. That’s the message on the answering machine this season when you lose at Florida by 31 and feel bad about everything, and it’s still the message when you lose to Georgia by 29 and feel better about almost everything.
But along the way, we found a little more joy than we anticipated.
That’s one of the best things about joy, the surprise of it. We wrote on Friday that Jarrett Guarantano, Josh Dobbs, Nathan Peterman, and Justin Worley failed to produce a single touchdown drive in their first career starts as mid-season replacements. Brian Maurer, on play number six:
Then, on the 10th play of the next drive, Maurer wasn’t even kind enough to let people get back in their seats after the end of the first quarter before throwing a dart between coverage in the end zone.
One of the biggest issues for this team has been red zone efficiency. Take out Chattanooga, and the Vols had 10 trips inside the 20 but only four touchdowns coming into the Georgia game: 2-for-4 against Georgia State, 2-for-4 against BYU, 0-for-2 against Florida. After failing to punch it in at the very end of the game against the Bulldogs, Tennessee is still 105th nationally in red zone touchdown percentage. But Maurer made an A+ throw in a crucial situation.
The kind of hope we really want may not bloom in full until the off-season, not as long as this year is yoked to the failures of September. Tennessee will want to get to six wins, though the fullness of that conversation needs to wait until we see what this team does against Mississippi State. But if the Vols do beat this week’s Bulldogs, then after whatever happens at 9:00 PM ET against Alabama, we’ll be talking about if this team can make a run to the postseason by winning four of its last five games. It would be a tall order for a young team; I said on our podcast last night that 5-7, at this point, would be a genuine accomplishment.
But along the way, we might have some fun.
Brian Maurer had some fun against #3 Georgia, now 17th in SP+ defense. The Tide are 11th in those ratings. The rest of the remaining schedule:
Mississippi State 48th
South Carolina 26th
UAB 47th
Kentucky 64th
Missouri 7th
Vanderbilt 109th
When Tyler Bray caught fire at the end of his freshman season, we talked about having to wait to see him get to Level 2: there was only so much you could believe when the opponents were Memphis, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt. Those three SEC teams had defensive SP+ ratings between 71-75, and Memphis was 113th.
That won’t be the case with Maurer. He’ll get a heavy dose of the kind of competition Tennessee needs to rise to in the second tier of the SEC East. He’ll get Alabama, of course. And he’ll also get a Missouri team that is rolling on that side of the ball at the moment.
If enough pieces around him stay healthy, we’ll be able to draw at least slightly more reasonable conclusions about his play. When hope eventually blossoms for Tennessee, whether through an unlikely bowl run this year or more tangible progress in 2020, its first fruits are likely to come in games like these. Credit Pruitt, Maurer, and everyone involved for taking a situation that felt mighty hopeless and injecting some genuine joy along the way.
We’re unlikely to forget Tennessee’s need for grace this year, and in particular Maurer’s. He’ll still have plenty of freshman moments in him, I’m sure. Hope, even if beneath the surface, is present. But the Vols now approach this Saturday with a little more than a bad combination of nerves, desperation, and idiot optimism.
You can also listen along with the robo-transcript below and even change the speed if you like. Pardon the errors, as the bot understands neither southern accents nor football. Also, there’s no bumper music in this, so the first 14 seconds is just, like, space, man.
Joel: This is the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast episode one fifty eight. I'm Joel Hollingsworth and I'm with Will Shelton, will we? Okay. So the Florida game after right after the Florida game, I had said I think it was on this podcast that Tennessee had done the impossible, that they'd gone into a game with low expectations and failed to meet them, sort of making a joke, you know, but it was kind of kind of true. And then last night against the number three Georgia Bulldogs were recording this Sunday night. So I'm talking about Saturday night. Of course, they kind of did the impossible. Again, they they they were huge underdogs. I think it was at kickoff. It was like a twenty five and a half point spread. They failed to cover it. And yet we kind of came out of the game kind of feeling that everything was a little bit better. And that seems to be not just me, but sort of the theme among the media and some of the fans. So what do you think? Do you feel that same way? Or are. Am I just in my own little bubble here?
Will: Oh, no, I don't think you're in the bubble at all. I a piece I'm working on for tomorrow. I said that. You know, the answer still needs to be after every game. We need more data that needs that needs to still be the answer. Like we go into these games knowing, OK, whatever happens here, there's gonna be another one that's going to tell us a little more about what's going on and a better one, too, than playing number three, Georgia. So we need to remember eyes by we I mean, I I need to remember after Florida. Yes, we need more data. We know we don't have enough. It's only been 16 games, whatever. And after a performance that I think does make all of us feel better about things, we need more data. Let's let's see where this goes and all that. So I don't think I liked what you wrote. I don't think we have to define it as a turning point. Capital T. Capital P. It feels a little bit to me like the Oklahoma game in 2014. So when you have a game like that Oklahoma game in 2014, where I don't know, on the front end, we'd have to get in a time machine and go back five years. If on the front end you said Oklahoma is gonna beat you by twenty four. Well, I don't know that we're gonna feel great about that. And certainly on the front end of this thing, if you said, hey, there's gonna be another four plus possession loss, you know, even if you gave us the same weirdnesses having against Georgia two years in a row where the score gets inflated by a fumble, ran back for a touchdown it at the end of the game, you know, that makes three possession of the into a four possession of air.
Will: But I think that's. There is now some excitement just because of the nature of the quarterback position itself. Bauer did a thing that I don't even think Garen Tanno could have done this year because he's a redshirt junior that could be a graduate transfer. He could could've gone early to the NFL, that sort of thing. I've been saying for months and months and months, even before the loss of Georgia State, that Jeremy Pruitt s fate isn't going to be decided by Jarrett Guarantano, good or bad. But I just think we all assumed that Harrison Bailey or some other recruit would be the one that helped decide that fate and not Brian Mauer. But once you see Mauer, you enter into this this new realm of possibility opens up that this guy could possibly possibly be an answer for you at quarterback in future years when Pruitt really needs to come through. When when the rent's going to come due on this guy, maybe maybe you've got a guy that possibly could be the quarterback in that situation.
Will: And that just makes you feel a whole lot different there. At least it does for me about a lot of the other young guys, because if we can, at least in pencil, write in Brian Bauer, question mark at quarterback. Now I'm starting to feel better about some of the other pieces where before it was like, hey, Eric Gray is great and Toto is great. And all these guys like, is it gonna matter if we can't find a quarterback? It's not going to matter if Tennessee can't find guys to get to the defensive linemen, to get to the passer and I going to matter. So there's still plenty work to be done. We need more data, but just the nature of what some semblance of hope for present and future. Most importantly for Tennessee right now, some semblance of hope at the quarterback position makes a lot of this feel very different to me. Did you I mean, you know, you talked about last week, you thought, let's keep playing Garen's Hannah. Let's let's get the crumbs and turn around. Cheney's done that before. How how did you experience all this with with Mauer? Because I was I was more. OK, well, let's at least, you know, it'll spark some interest, that kind of stuff. What was your take on? That's the emotion of that whole seeing the backup come in and play well.
Joel: Ok. So it's like you're reading my notes here because that's actually
Will: Ok.
Joel: My next question
Will: This
Joel: Here.
Will: Is a long term relationship, you and I,
Joel: They
Will: You
Joel: Can't
Will: Know.
Joel: Finish each other's sentences here. So I don't have this actually all the way planned out. So you're going to have to bear with me and just listen to me, try to formulate it on the fly. OK. But there's a lot of optimism coming from that change. And I am all for that. I was glad to see the guy play well. I'd rather be wrong and have the team play well than be right and have haven't be bad. Right. But here's the thing. What? After Florida, after they lost Franks, we were having this conversation about Tennessee and backup quarterbacks. Right.
Will: It's.
Joel: You know, I'm going,
Will: No.
Joel: But.
Will: I'm intrigued.
Joel: Ok. So we're having this conversation. We're like, oh, no. You know, Tennessee's got to play a backup quarterback and ask the question, what is it about backup quarterbacks that sort of do a team in in? It's kind
Will: Yeah.
Joel: Of it's kind of like one or two things. It's it's either the juice because the guy comes in and he's you know, he's still got all these hopes and dreams, none of which have been dashed. Right. And he's excited. He comes in with this huge level of enthusiasm and inspiration and motivation. He's he's juiced. Right. And then the rest of the team is like, oh, no, we got we get this brand new guy and we we better play well to to make up for any mistakes he might make. Right. So it's the extra juice, not just the quarterback, but the rest of the team. And then also the other thing is that the defensive game plan basically goes out the window, at least when the guy comes in in the middle of the game or before you know that he's going to play. Right. You've never seen the guy, especially if he's brand new. You haven't seen the guy play. You don't know what he does. Well, even if they're going to play the same system, he might be faster. He might be shift year. He might make different decisions and different scenarios and things like that. So you got the juice and you got the the destruction of the defensive game plan.
Joel: And then I think you brought up that. Oh, don't worry, because a lot of times these guys don't generally play that well the next game. And the rationale behind that is you lose a little bit of juice if they've lost. But mostly the defense now has something to look at, something the game plan for. And now it's the new quarterback who has to adjust on the fly. OK. So so here's what I'm thinking. Did that happen to Mauer in the second half? And is it going to happen the next game or for a couple of more games? So I think that Cheney and Pruitt in the in the coaching staff, they have this dilemma. They've got two quarterbacks that are sort of at this plateau and you don't know whether or not they can get any higher. So you got Garen Tanno. And I still think the guarantee antenna's only problem is that he's still getting used to Cheney. And I think that it would just take another couple of games for him to get there. But what's the you know, what's the benefit of that? Maybe we get to a bowl game and maybe next year we go in thinking that we can get eight wins and then he's gone.
Will: Right.
Joel: Or do you go with Mauer? And his challenge is that he's got to learn how to play well when the other team isn't surprised anymore. They know what you're going to do. And that's that's a that's a big leap for a guy to make. And I think he can do it. But how many games is going to take? I don't know. But he does have more time. All right. So, anyway, I was wondering what you thought about all of that in which you would choose. Although I also have to say in my notes as I was abbreviate and all the stuff I was using, j.g, you know, because they call tanno j.g. Right. And I made a mental note to not call Brian Maurer B.M..
Will: Right. Yes.
Joel: I don't think
Will: That's.
Joel: That's a good idea.
Will: No, that's that's not a good idea. I've been trying to find a way to tie him into Jack Bauer. Brian Bauer
Joel: Oh,
Will: And Jack
Joel: Okay.
Will: Bauer, but
Joel: That it work.
Will: Not have nots. I just really loved that show
Joel: Added to.
Will: And I anyway, that has not come to me, but. OK. So
Joel: But not B.M..
Will: I've I've I would write I was trying to make some joke about Jack Bauer saying there's no time. But even that is not. It's late. I've been traveling this. We can go braves. But anyway, I think a couple things about that. One, after we talked on the podcast, I did pull those numbers and we wrote this on Friday of here's what Tennessee quarterbacks have done as mid-season replacements in their first starts. And if you didn't read that,
Joel: I read
Will: It was
Joel: It.
Will: Terrible like the last four guys. Tanno against South Carolina in in 2017 at a point when Tennessee was still you know, it was three and two, they had just gotten whacked by Georgia. But three in two. It was not everything was lost. And Tennessee didn't score a touchdown. Lost fifteen to nine. And most of his whole stat line was on the last drive where they came down and almost scored, but they didn't. So Guantanmo, no touchdowns lost. Fifteen to nine. DOBs at Missouri, when we spent a lot of time, we saw DOBs in the second half against Alabama. And Missouri, that's the first year that they the first of their two back to back division titles. So even though they were ranked ninth, we weren't buying Missouri. That's the infamous five to 30 percent chance of winning a game for long time readers of the site.
Joel: I love that game.
Will: And we spent all week I remember going on Sports 180 on that Friday and being like, I feel like people are coming up to me and saying things like, he doesn't have to be Michael Vick. But I'm like, dude, it's don't don't even put him in that same strategy. It's one freshman guy against a top ten defense in his first start on a team that's been kind of bad all year. So I think we talked ourselves into a lot of the idea of DOBs, which came true eventually, but not against Missouri. They lost thirty one to 3, didn't score a touchdown. Peterman, no need to go into that again against Florida. Certainly Worley came in and led touchdown drives, but Peterson did not. And then Worley at a real at a crucial juncture for their dooly when breh is hurt. You've just gotten waxed. Back to back by LSU and Alabama. Here's South Carolina, who is a top 15 team, and they burned Worley's red shirt. So now let's go ahead and start him. And Tennessee lost 14 to 3. They had a they were had an interception at the five yard line and had a chance to take the lead. And Worley threw it right back to them. And then South Carolina went on a 20 play drives it. Folks who remember I was there. It was awful. And South Carolina won 40 to three. So all that to say, the standard for what Tennessee quarterbacks have done in their first start as a midseason replacement was excruciatingly low. So when Mauer came in and threw a touchdown on the sixth snap, it it changed that.
Will: And then when it wasn't a fluke, I thought, OK. You know, Cheney found himself in coverage. Good double move by Callaway. Good job. By now, I put it on the money. Maybe we snuck one over on him then. The rest of it, you know, really validated the idea that just in comparison to other Tennessee quarterbacks in a similar situation, some of whom went on to be Nathan Peterman, one of them went on to become Josh Dobbs. Mauer did much, much better. The next question which I'll research and write for this week is what do those guys do in their second start? I know Dobbs was Auburn in that death streak of playing a bunch of top 10 teams. Tennessee scored twenty three points of that game. They did give up fifty five, but there was at least some life there. Peterman never got a second shot. I think Worley played like CSU or some like that. What's it got to go back and look at all that? But anyway, there is there's yeah, there's a part of me that is concerned that what we saw in the second half was Georgia figuring him out. And that juice and that surprise element won't be there against Mississippi State. One of my biggest hopes is that everything that we thought about this team at the start of the year, not not we know every one picked Tennessee to go to a ballgame. Everyone was thinking this is a six win team. At least not many folks thought they were a, you know, six or seven. That was everybody's thought. So is there a school of thought here where if you just get adequate quarterback play doesn't need to be spectacular? Because Mauer I mean, he was spectacular in the first half.
Will: That was spectacular. And then the second half was below average. So if you just get adequate, if you get the mixture of those two things, you just get adequate the rest of the way against South Carolina. Alabama's only opportunity slash don't get hurt. And then the rest of that schedule depending on what's going on with Kelly Bryan at Missouri. Then is Tennessee the rest of the team going to look like a six or seven win football team with adequate quarterback play? I'm hopeful for that. The problem with that is one of those six or seven wins is always going to be Georgia State. I still think, you know, I think if they got to five and seven, that would be an accomplishment. It wouldn't feel that way. But I think if they if they get from one and four to five and seven, knowing that one of those losses is going to be Alabama, I think I think that would be a good job at this point. So I don't know to downplay five and seven or pooh-poohed or anything like that, but I'm just hopeful that that not just for the future expectations of what Tennessee might have, but just for the present that the rest of those pieces, enough pieces to be a six or seven win football team if you beat Georgia State and ah, have been there all along. We'll see again. We need more data.
Joel: I have missed what's going on with Kelly Bryant. What can you fill me in on that?
Will: Got hurt in the Missouri game and I don't know the status of that injury, so I have not I've that that may be out by the time people notice or listen to this on Monday. But at the time you are talking, I don't know what its statuses.
Joel: That's that's a big deal. I mean, that's you know, they're there. Do they have any backup? How did the backup do once he got hurt? Any idea?
Will: I don't know. I read about it when Bill did the S.P. ratings this morning. He was talking about Missouri's defense, how well Missouri had played after the Wyoming game, but that everything was kind of riding on if Bryant's could go and what that would be like. So I don't know.
Joel: I did see that they snuck into the top 10 and SB Plus.
Will: Yeah. Yeah. Not I mean. So the conversation we we're going to want to have here is. If we need to take this in small doses, Tennessee needs to see if they can beat Mississippi State, if they can beat Mississippi State, then we'll play Alabama. Bad things will happen. But after that, then we can have the larger conversation, which is going to be if they beat Mississippi State, you get one freebie. After the Alabama game of Tennessee, Mississippi say there would be two and five, which means you got one loss left if you want to be bowl eligible. Missouri is just operating on a different level than the rest of those teams on Tennessee's schedule. There is the scheduling component itself where Tennessee is on a bye week and Missouri is coming off plan. Georgia and Florida back to back. So that helps. But I know we just talked about it. I know we're not used to giving Missouri as much credit because they're Missouri and they're new to the conference. And I know that they're Dooley is there. And that makes us also want to give them less credit than they deserve. But Missouri's pretty good. And that's so when we say if they beat Mississippi State and they lose Alabama and we say, all right, well, you know, they need to. They've got one freebie that's probably going to be the freebie. So now you're asking them, can they run the table against South Carolina, UAB at Kentucky and Vanderbilt to get the six? Maybe. But in a week that that conversation, we don't need to talk about bowl eligibility this week. I think we need to talk about Mississippi State and let's start there and just see this is still a team that lost the Georgia state. Let's see. Let's let's see what they can do. Mississippi State's coming off the by men. Those guys looked awful against Auburn. So we'll see if this was a big fat data point already before Mauer gave you the possibility that he might be an answer not just for this fall. So.
Joel: Yeah, they I I haven't looked actually at the spread yet. My. I did run my machine quick this morning and it it liked the Bulldogs by like 15, which I think is high, but it's probably seven would be my guess. I'll look that up in a minute. So what do you think the danger is of of getting Mauer put through the wringer a little too early, you know? I don't know whether I just feel bad for Garran Tanno. And I think this old juice thing. I think it's hard to keep your juice when you have three seasons worth of disappointment. You know, nothing like that can sap your juice any better than that, right? So what what happens with Mauer if he says he's going to lose to Alabama? Probably look terrible, but you know, everybody's survived that. But if he does get through this season and loses all of them, but UAB or all of them, but UAB and one other, does that do any lasting damage to him that we'd have to work to overcome next year? Do you think?
Will: Good question. And there's really no. We're in uncharted water with with Tennessee in terms of that kind of losing, because the only quarterbacks that have done it are half of Quint Dormandy and half of Jarrett Guarantano. So we don't have anything to compare it to at Tennessee historically, if you're talking about like a 3 and 9. Obviously, that's never happened before. So and even DOBs, you know, DOBs didn't win much when he came in there. But Dobbs's is losing to the second half of Alabama. Number nine, Missouri, the Auburn team that almost won the national championship. You know, Dobsons losing that game and he regressed. We talked about before he game against Vanderbilt at the end of the year. I thought he would never, ever be the answer quarterback for Tennessee. So I think some of it is that I just also the messaging we talk about feeling bad for and tanno the messaging between the seniors on this team and the freshmen just has to be so different. I mean, Garran Tanno is a redshirt junior. He signed and was present here. In 2016? Yeah. Like he was on the team in 16 as a red shirt, so he was around for all of that stuff, same as a Jauan Jennings was around. So he knows what it's like to be at Tennessee when you at least for the first half of the season are chasing a national championship. Or at the very least, and s._e._c East Championship. And now here at the end, you know, there's a bunch of guys on this team who their whole they were recruited to and are now playing through the sense of we're building it, we're building it, it's come in, we're working hard.
Will: We know we just lost by 20 whatever for the X number of times in a row or whatever. But it's come in. We're building we're we're going to lot of these guys. Joe, I know you're not on Twitter, but a lot of these guys are tweeting today as if I'm sure someone told them to thank you to the fans. We're working hard to get players are tweeting. Thank you to the fans. We're working hard. Don't give up on us, that sort of thing. So in that sense, I feel bad for Tanno because he's you can't sell that to him. You know that literally it's not just what he signed up for. It's not what he experienced his first year at Tennessee. And it's not what he experienced when Dormandy got picked to start over him against Georgia. Georgia Tech in 2017. And so, you know, he's he's from that mindset and it just hasn't paid off. So can Mauer take some lumps and then come out of it on the other side knowing, well, this was just the basement and now we're going to build on it? I don't know if this is a 3 and 9 or worse situation three and that which would be three a night or two in 10 or one and eleven, then whatever warm fuzzies we have about now are going to go away. If he if he can't get a couple of those wins along the way.
Joel: Yeah.
Will: Otherwise, you know, even even if there look, even if they're four and eight but competitive after Alabama, then I think you can still say, look, we you know, we lost two games at the start of the year that we never should've lost that aren't on his rap sheet. And and we lost to Florida. That won't be the Gators if he played, but, you know, that's that's not on him either. And we're building it. I think that that can be OK, because that's still the message they're selling to everybody else on the team and in high schools that we're just building from here.
Joel: Yeah, it's not just if the team goes three and nine, how does Mauer feel about it? It's what happens during the 3 and nine. Like you say, the warm fuzzies are gonna go away. It's gonna be worse than that. It's gonna be you suck. And we never should have recruited you, you know, and that's not fair. You know how he handles it. And you know, it's gonna it's gonna be key. Mississippi State is, by the way, a six and a half point favorite. So, again, my machine says we won't cover. But I kind of want to look closer at the underlying assumptions on that to see whether it makes sense. But how are you? I know it's it's only Sunday night right now. How are you feeling about Mississippi State? We can talk about it more later in the week. But how are you feeling right now about him?
Will: What I want to say, and I'm afraid this is me believing something I want to be true instead of something that's actually true. I want to say it's a toss up. I would love to say that, you know, on the winning, I think I put 40 percent of the expected win total thing. But you know that it is closer to 50 that we just don't know. Mississippi State lost at home to Kansas State and then looked as bad. I mean, as bad as Tennessee looked against Florida. I thought Mississippi State was worse against Auburn.
Joel: I think Cockburn's good, though, man.
Will: Yeah, I get, but I mean, Florida, you know, I know it was close and close and close and a body blow to him and then Piron had a long run and so they went by eleven or whatever. But, you know, I think Florida's good
Joel: Yeah, I think they're both
Will: With
Joel: Good.
Will: This, which is not some consolation on Tennessee. Like that's a problem for us in the welcome, Arun. Hey, Dan Mullen is a good coach and these guys are good. And we have to play every year. So, yeah, I think they're both good. I think you're right. But what what. Auburn isn't is. Auburn is the best version of themselves that everyone thought they were the playoffs all burnt like that. That ain't it. But they I mean, that was a hot knife through butter against Mississippi State. So, yeah. Part of me wants to say this is a toss up crowd is fans are interested and invested. He hasn't been anybody but Chattanooga this year. And so you know this. We need a win of consequence. And this would be one at this point of the story. So there's lots of lots of folks are looking for reasons to believe on that. Also, it may be the sort of game where Tennessee does something dumb early. And Mississippi State jumps ahead. And now Tennessee thinks, oh, we're we just suck. We're bad. And we get into some of that. So I don't know. But there's nothing we need more data on. Mauer and Mississippi State has not done anything to inspire me to pick them on the road so that I don't know. Yeah. I mean, that's what my gut wants to say is this is a 50 50 toss-up situation.
Joel: All right, so pop quiz, what was worse Tennessee's loss to Georgia state or the officiating crew in the third quarter last night?
Will: At least I appreciated the officiating crews honesty. I appreciate that they didn't try to. The guy was like ever further discussion, we changed our mind. This
Joel: Like 2 2
Will: Just.
Joel: Times in a row.
Will: Yeah,
Joel: Yeah.
Will: It's just what happened. They need to make a face mask, needs to be a reviewable penalty. That's not hard. If we can review targeting and we can review passenger fares in the NFL, which is a terrible idea, but facemask is not a judgment call. I mean, I know officials are making it as a judgment call, but en route on review. There should be evidence, your honor, Like it, we should be able to figure that out so that that needs to be reviewable, but. Yeah. You know, I've. It felt like the substitute teacher coming into the classroom and being like, we're going to cross all the T's and dot all the I's baby and everything. That is a penalty. All of it's getting called tonight. So.
Joel: Yeah. All in like 10 minutes. It was like every play there was a flag thrown.
Will: Yeah. What haven't we called it? Yeah. Yeah. I
Joel: And
Will: Don't
Joel: Then
Will: Know
Joel: There was.
Will: The Blore, the root. The ref on the fumble, return for a touchdown, call some people some money. Tennessee covers the spread of that refs slip away. So,
Joel: I have
Will: You know,
Joel: To I
Will: That's
Joel: Have to.
Will: That's another friend. Like not not to go back and beat on Garen Tanno any more than we have in the past. But first and goal to 5 at the end of the game and you can't get in the endzone on four tries against Georgia's backups. It is a microcosm of what has been happening with him all season. And you know that that's just. I don't know when you say if we leave him and he'll eventually get it. I just I know he's playing with some backup wide receivers too. But man like that, there is just so little confidence with him in those situations compared to the throw Mauer made. I mean, that was bananas that throw and for for a freshman gets a number three team in the country. So, yeah, I just think confidence is worth a lot more than we're giving it credit for. And Bauers, I would think, still has to be high coming out of that and getting Santo just less so.
Joel: That is probably true, although wasn't there a series of events that happened before that where we had three of our key guys go out on consecutive plays?
Will: Offensive lineman, yes.
Joel: Yeah, there were two two offensive linemen and then there was somebody else who was I don't remember, need to go back and look at that. But yeah, I mean, just then then they cut the Pruitt and he's like, you know, this faces like he can't even believe this is happening because losing all his guys on top of everything else.
Will: Yeah, and that I mean, that matters. Bauer needs those guys to keep him up right here again, not against Alabama, but against teams like the one we're getting ready to play on Saturday.
Joel: All right. Anything I missed freestyle freestyle will. I need a rap name for you.
Will: I think that's. Sometimes on this pike, as we've talked about. Like here's the real worst case scenario. One teeny tiny I mean, not teeny tiny, but one kind of background best case scenario. Consider that all of your really great memories of Marquez Callaway other than catching a Hail Mary against Kentucky last year. All of your really great Marquez Callaway memories are either a punt return or they are associated with Quintin Dermody. Gehrt Tanno and Callaway. Like we never saw the Callaway that we saw against Georgia Tech. With Garran Tanno ever. And so I wonder if there's just something about that dynamic between the two of them or just something great about Mauer and Calloway. But that was refreshing to not have it just be the Jauan Jennings show and be like, oh yeah, this guy's really good. That kid's hemade on third down on the drive. That's the Jenning score. The touchdown on was an unbelievable catch to me. So I am hopeful that maybe Mauer brings out something in Marquez Callaway that for whatever reason, just Garen's and I wasn't bringing out. I would love for that. Calloway from the Georgia Tech game to show up here in the last half of his senior season.
Joel: Yeah, I will say this, too. Mauer just seems faster, quicker twitch here. You know, the game is is going faster when he's in there. It's the juice. I
Will: Yeah.
Joel: Think it's the juice. Yeah. All right. Well, that'll do it for this episode of the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast. Thanks for tuning in. Do us a favor. Subscribe, give us a rating, leave a review. Bonus points tonight if you include in your review. The secret word B.M.. I think we're just gonna go with that. So.
Will: I'm working on the Jack Bauer stuff. It's been a long time, but I've got a lot of I got a lot of that stored in my memory banks up there. So I'll have to see what I can what I can come up with.
Joel: I love that show. I would watch. I think I've watched every single episode. It's great. I don't know why it went off, but it needs to come back on. It was great. I watched even it wasn't there. One without Kiefer Sutherland.
Will: Yeah, I watched the one episode of that, then I was out, but it hit
Joel: Oh, it was pretty
Will: My
Joel: Good.
Will: Wife. My wife never watched the show. And then the one where he came back, we watched it together. And it was so much fun to watch that show with someone who had never seen 24 before because she was so nervous for Jack Bauer would be like, oh, he's gonna be fine. Like everyone else is in danger every episode and could die at any moment. But
Joel: Yeah,
Will: He's going to just fine. So
Joel: It is.
Will: That
Joel: But
Will: Season and she goes, what did you make me watch this?
Joel: My wife is the same way. She can't stand all that anxiety is like it's a TV show, you know, it's gonna work, you
Will: Yeah,
Joel: Know?
Will: That
Joel: I mean.
Will: Was that was the one. It wasn't the anxiety, it was the spoiler alert. You should turn this off and you've never seen any. 24. That's the one where Audrey dies.
Joel: Ok.
Will: That's Alex is like. Like, why? Why? Like, I got invested in these people and then they died. I was like, yes, this is the show. Welcome.
Joel: Yeah, my my daughter was mad at me for recommending Odd Thomas to her, have you read those?
Will: I have not.
Joel: Ok. Dinard Koonce books. Whole series on Odd. Thomas Read. Really good stuff. But yeah, in the very first book is The Love of His Life Dies and she's so mad at me. And then she has to read like 15 more books in order to get the answer on that. But
Will: I
Joel: She she thanked
Will: Do
Joel: Me later.
Will: A. I used to when 24 was on the air back in like this would have been like 0 3 0 4. Early on I was going to a worship service on Monday nights at Fellowship Church in Knoxville, Shoutouts of Fellowship Church in Knoxville, and Greg
Joel: We
Will: Pinkner, who was
Joel: Wish
Will: The pastor
Joel: To go
Will: There.
Joel: There.
Will: Did you really?
Joel: Yeah, we did.
Will: Greg pinkner employed there at the time.
Joel: No, it was Doug Bannister.
Will: He may still be on the step of the pinger was leading the college worship services hillarious is. I am a United Methodist pastor. His theology and mine are probably not going to get along all the time these days, but he used to like the worship service would end. It was on Monday nights and it would end at like 8:30. And he would always say some form of like, listen, don't hang out here. Like I'm trying to get home and watch 24 like don't's.
Joel: Yeah.
Will: Don't hang out here too long. Dude, you need to do and then leave because people tried to get out of here and watch Jack Bauer and I was one of those people. And so I always
Joel: Yeah.
Will: I always appreciate that.
Joel: Yeah.
Will: So.
Joel: Love you. Get out.
Will: Shout out. That's. Yeah. Shout out Fellowship Church.
Joel: All right. So we're gonna change the bonus points phrase to Jack Bauer instead of being
Will: Yeah, well,
Joel: Jack
Will: We'll find a way
Joel: Bauer.
Will: To work.
Joel: Yeah. All right. So for Will Shelton, I'm Joel Hollingsworth. This has been the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast. All right, well. Oh, I was the one more thing I was going to say while we were actually still before the close. But yeah, that whole anxiety thing that you feel on 24 only feels that in a little house is like, is it going to be all right? So.
Will: That's right.
Joel: Yeah.
Will: Yeah, I. I love. I never went back and watched because they were just they were always on. I did shut down when I was a youth director this season when the one that starts with. Everybody getting killed. President Palmer and Season 5, I think where the first episode everybody does. You know, and love. I was leading a youth retreat weekend and me and other chevre and we're like, we're watching this. Don't come. Bother's is the last night of the retreat. Everybody's tired. We're like, you talk to these other people from 8:00 tonight. Don't come, bother's. Then everybody dies. The first 50 minutes, you'll be like, hey, man, sharp, leave, leave, leave. No doubt. That was that was an events like maybe it's just the age you are at a certain time. But that stretch of years when twenty four and lost.
Meanwhile, Missouri’s looking better, Vanderbilt’s looking worse, and Mississippi State, Alabama, South Carolina, and Kentucky were all resting comfortably.
With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 3.85. Continuing to inch up.
Preseason: 6.55
After Week 0: 6.6
After Week 1: 2.87
After Week 2: 2.37
After Week 3: 3.65
After Week 4: 2.9
After Week 5: 3.25
After Week 6: 3.85
Details: Alabama remains at 5% and Missouri stays at 25%. South Carolina and Mississippi State both move to 40%, Kentucky and Vanderbilt move to 50%, and UAB moves to 75%.
Here’s a table with my expectations this week:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 1-4 (0-2), 5th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to Georgia State, 30-38
Sat, Sep 7
Lost to BYU, 29-26 2OT
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Chattanooga, 45-0
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ No. 9 Florida, 34-3
Sat, Oct 5
Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 43-14
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Mississippi State, 20-10
Sat, Oct 19
Lost @ 1 Alabama, 35-13
Sat, Oct 26
Beat South Carolina, 41-21
Sat, Nov 2
Beat UAB, 30-7
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Kentucky, 17-13
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Missouri, 24-20
Sat, Nov 30
vs Vanderbilt
The Vols’ past opponents
Georgia State Panthers
Current record: 3-2 (1-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Tennessee, 38-30
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Furman, 48-42
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to Western Michigan, 57-10
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ Texas State, 37-34 3OT
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Arkansas State, 52-38
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Coastal Carolina, 31-21
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Army, 28-21
Sat, Oct 26
Beat Troy, 52-33
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ UL Monroe, 45-31
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to No. 25 Appalachian State, 56-27
Sat, Nov 23
Beat South Alabama, 28-15
Sat, Nov 30
@ Georgia Southern
The Panthers had 722 yards of offense! It’s not that this loss wasn’t bad, but maybe not quite so horrendous as maybe we thought? Maybe?
BYU Cougars
Current record: 2-3 (0-0)
Thu, Aug 29
Lost to No. 14 Utah, 12-30
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Tennessee, 29-26 2OT
Sat, Sep 14
Beat No. 24 USC, 30-27 OT
Sat, Sep 21
Lost to No. 22 Washington, 45-19
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ Toledo, 28-21
Sat, Oct 12
Lost @ South Florida, 27-23
Sat, Oct 19
Beat No. 14 Boise State, 28-25
Sat, Nov 2
Beat Utah State, 42-14
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Liberty, 31-24
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Idaho State, 42-10
Sat, Nov 23
Beat UMass, 56-24
Sat, Nov 30
@ San Diego State
Off this week.
Chattanooga Mocs
Current record: 3-3 (2-0), 2nd in the Southern Conference
Thu, Aug 29
Beat Eastern Illinois, 24-10
Sat, Sep 7
Lost to Jacksonville State, 41-20
Sat, Sep 14
Lost at Tennessee, 45-0
Sat, Sep 21
Lost to James Madison, 37-14
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Western Carolina, 60-36
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Mercer, 34-17
Thu, Oct 17
Beat East Tennessee State, 16-13
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Wofford, 35-34 OT
Sat, Nov 2
Lost to Furman, 35-20
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Samford, 35-27
Sat, Nov 16
Beat The Citadel, 34-33
Sat, Nov 23
Lost to VMI, 31-24
Florida Gators
Current record: 6-0 (3-0), 1st in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 24
Beat Miami, 24-20
Sat, Sep 7
Beat UT Martin, 45-0
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Kentucky, 29-21
Sat, Sep 21
Beat Tennessee, 34-3
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Towson, 38-0
Sat, Oct 5
Beat No. 7 Auburn, 24-13
Sat, Oct 12
Lost @ No. 5 LSU, 42-28
Sat, Oct 19
Beat South Carolina, 38-27
Sat, Nov 2
Lost to No. 8 Georgia, 24-17
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Vanderbilt, 56-0
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Missouri, 23-6
Sat, Nov 30
vs Florida State
Raise your hand if you hate the Gators! Will and I disagree a bit about how good Auburn is, but the Gators are looking good, so I’m giving the Vols a bit of a bump because this loss is looking (but not feeling) better.
The Bulldogs were off last week, so getting stomped by Auburn the prior week is the last thing we have to go on. If this game moves on my list, it’s because of the Vols.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 5-0 (2-0), 1st in the SEC West
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Duke, 42-3
Sat, Sep 7
Beat New Mexico State, 62-10
Sat, Sep 14
Beat South Carolina, 47-23
Sat, Sep 21
Beat Southern Miss, 49-7
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Ole Miss, 59-31
Sat, Oct 12
Beat No. 24 Texas A&M, 47-28
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Tennessee, 35-13
Sat, Oct 26
Beat Arkansas, 48-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost to No. 2 LSU, 46-41
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Mississippi State, 38-7
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Western Carolina, 66-3
Sat, Nov 30
@ No. 11 Auburn
Alabama was also off.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 2-3 (1-2), 4th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to North Carolina, 24-20
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Charleston Southern, 72-10
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to No. 2 Alabama, 47-23
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ Missouri, 34-14
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Kentucky, 24-7
Sat, Oct 12
Beat No. 3 Georgia, 20-17 2OT
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to No. 9 Florida, 38-27
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Tennessee, 41-21
Sat, Nov 2
Beat Vanderbilt, 24-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost to Appalachian State, 20-15
Sat, Nov 16
Lost @ Texas A&M, 30-6
Sat, Nov 30
vs 4 Clemson
Did anybody play this week besides us?
UAB Blazers
Current record: 4-1 (1-1), 4th in C-USA West
Thu, Aug 29
Beat Alabama State, 24-19
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Akron, 31-20
Sat, Sep 21
Beat South Alabama, 35-3
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ Western Kentucky, 20-13
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Rice, 35-20
Sat, Oct 12
Beat UTSA, 33-14
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Old Dominion, 38-14
Sat, Nov 2
Lost @ Tennessee, 30-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ Southern Miss, 37-2
Sat, Nov 16
Beat UTEP, 37-10
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Louisiana Tech, 20-14
Sat, Nov 30
@ North Texas
Rice has lost 17 of its last 18 games, so . . . .
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 2-3 (0-3), 6th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Toledo, 38-24
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Eastern Michigan, 38-17
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to No. 8 Florida, 29-21
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ Mississippi State, 28-13
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Arkansas, 24-20
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to No. 10 Georgia, 21-0
Sat, Oct 26
Beat Missouri, 29-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost to Tennessee, 17-13
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Vanderbilt, 38-14
Sat, Nov 23
Beat UT Martin, 50-7
Sat, Nov 30
vs Louisville
Off.
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 4-1 (1-0), 3rd in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to Wyoming, 37-31
Sat, Sep 7
Beat West Virginia, 38-7
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Southeast Missouri State, 50-0
Sat, Sep 21
Beat South Carolina, 34-14
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Troy, 42-10
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Ole Miss, 38-27
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to Vanderbilt, 21-14
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Kentucky, 29-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ No. 6 Georgia, 27-0
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to No. 11 Florida, 23-6
Sat, Nov 23
Lost to Tennessee, 24-20
Fri, Nov 29
@ Arkansas
Missouri looking really good. QB Kelly Bryant left with an injury, but the reports are that he’s going to be ready to roll again this week. Linebacker Cale Garrett, who’s scored three defensive touchdowns this year alone, is out indefinitely, though.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 1-4 (0-3), 6th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 30-6
Sat, Sep 7
Lost to Purdue, 42-24
Sat, Sep 21
Lost to No. 4 LSU, 66-38
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Northern Illinois, 24-18
Sat, Oct 5
Lost to Ole Miss, 31-6
Sat, Oct 12
Lost to UNLV, 34-10
Sat, Oct 19
Beat No. 22 Missouri, 21-14
Sat, Nov 2
Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ No. 10 Florida, 56-0
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to Kentucky, 38-14
Sat, Nov 23
Beat ETSU, 38-0
Sat, Nov 30
@ Tennessee
Commodores not looking good. They gave up 413 rushing yards to Ole Miss in this game.
What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?
I lightheartedly said on our group therapy podcast after the Florida game that Tennessee had done the impossible, that they’d gone into a game for which the fans really had no expectations and still failed to live up to them. Against No. 3 Georgia Saturday night, the Vols once again did something almost unimaginable, although this time it was on the positive side of the ledger.
Tennessee was a 25.5-point underdog at home to the Georgia Bulldogs. In the end, they got beat by 29 points and failed to cover a monster spread. In a season that was supposed to serve as a turning point for the Jeremy Pruitt Era, they instead fell to 1-4 with another near-certain loss looming in two weeks.
And yet, despite all of that they made you think that maybe they weren’t quite as far away from that proverbial and elusive corner as you’d thought. They made you feel that maybe they were actually improving more rapidly than it had seemed. They made you believe that everything was going to be okay, and maybe sooner rather than later.
It wasn’t just the beginning
It wasn’t just the surprising start to the game, although that was certainly fun. Right after Georgia took its opening drive 84 yards in 12 plays to the end zone for a touchdown, Tennessee matched them with a 75-yard touchdown in two plays. And when the Bulldogs added three points on their next drive, the Vols one-upped them with a touchdown to take the lead, 14-10. The score was 14-13 until under two minutes to go in the first half.
But even when the wheels came off on the scoreboard, you never really felt like there weren’t good, valid, and fixable reasons for Georgia scoring all of the remaining points. The deeper and therefore stronger team leveraged that depth and strength for two touchdowns in the last two minutes of the first half. After that, they managed only a single field goal during a third-quarter penalty plague and then once again leveraged depth and strength for two more touchdowns in the fourth quarter, one of them a defensive score on a fumble and return resulting from a brutal sack that true freshman quarterback Brian Maurer never saw coming. What was indisputably a blowout on the scoreboard never felt like anything but a national championship contender doing what it should do against a rebuilding program.
The Vols had 20 first downs to Georgia’s 26. They were 5-12 on third downs while holding Georgia to 5-11. They had 273 passing yards to Georgia’s 288. Maurer not only had the extra juice the team needed, he hit key throws and kept one of the nation’s best defenses on its heels for most of the first half. Marquez Callaway and Jauan Jennings were big, both getting over 100 yards and touchdowns. The offensive line looked better, and the secondary made some beautiful plays. Everywhere you looked, the guys in orange were absolutely refusing to back down right until the final whistle.
What if there is no corner?
The record books will never identify this game as any kind of turning point for the Tennessee program. But maybe there is no corner, no clear delineation between then and now, today and tomorrow, bad and better and good and elite. Maybe it’s just one long winding road without any signs to let you know where you are until after you get there.
It would be nice if there was an actual metaphorical corner, someplace where you could in one motion turn out of the shadow and into the sun. But maybe it’s just one long continuum of gradients and the sunlight arrives first among the shadows.
I do know one thing for sure, though: Regardless of the data on the dashboard, last night our team put some distance between them and the past.
It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the Vols hoping to get their legs under them while warding off threats from every angle courtesy of the No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs. Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Tennessee fans. Where and when to find the Vols game on TV, what other games to watch as well, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.
When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?
Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:
Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated just for Vols fans:
Away
Home
Time
TV
How
Why
NOON
14 Iowa
19 Michigan
12:00 PM
FOX
Live
Top 25 matchup
AFTERNOON
7 Auburn
10 Florida
3:30 PM
CBS
Live
Top 10 matchup
EVENING
3 Georgia
Tennessee
7:00 PM
ESPN
Live
Go Vols
And here’s a searchable version of this week’s entire college football TV schedule:
Date
Away
Home
Time
TV
10/3/19
Georgia Southern
South Alabama
7:30 PM
ESPNU
10/3/19
Temple
East Carolina
8:00 PM
ESPN
10/4/19
UCF
Cincinnati
8:00 PM
ESPN
10/4/19
New Mexico
San Jose State
10:00 PM
CBSSN
10/5/19
Utah State
LSU
12:00 PM
SECN
10/5/19
Oklahoma
Kansas
12:00 PM
ABC
10/5/19
Kent State
Wisconsin
12:00 PM
ESPNU
10/5/19
Purdue
Penn State
12:00 PM
ESPN
10/5/19
Iowa
Michigan
12:00 PM
FOX
10/5/19
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
12:00 PM
FS1
10/5/19
South Florida
UConn
12:00 PM
10/5/19
TCU
Iowa State
12:00 PM
ESPN2
10/5/19
Maryland
Rutgers
12:00 PM
BTN
10/5/19
Tulane
Army
12:00 PM
CBSSN
10/5/19
Boston College
Louisville
12:30 PM
ACCNX
10/5/19
Eastern Michigan
Central Michigan
3:00 PM
ESPN+
10/5/19
Auburn
Florida
3:30 PM
CBS
10/5/19
Bowling Green
Notre Dame
3:30 PM
NBC
10/5/19
Texas
West Virginia
3:30 PM
ABC
10/5/19
Ohio
Buffalo
3:30 PM
ESPN+
10/5/19
Western Michigan
Toledo
3:30 PM
ESPN+
10/5/19
Ball State
Northern Illinois
3:30 PM
ESPN3
10/5/19
Arkansas State
Georgia State
3:30 PM
ESPN+
10/5/19
Baylor
Kansas State
3:30 PM
ESPN2
10/5/19
Illinois
Minnesota
3:30 PM
BTN
10/5/19
Air Force
Navy
3:30 PM
CBSSN
10/5/19
Virginia Tech
Miami
3:30 PM
ESPN
10/5/19
Marshall
Middle Tennessee
3:30 PM
10/5/19
Memphis
UL Monroe
3:45 PM
ESPNU
10/5/19
Northwestern
Nebraska
4:00 PM
10/5/19
North Carolina
Georgia Tech
4:00 PM
ACCN
10/5/19
Troy
Missouri
4:00 PM
SECN
10/5/19
Arizona
Colorado
4:30 PM
10/5/19
Western Kentucky
Old Dominion
6:00 PM
ESPN+
10/5/19
Georgia
Tennessee
7:00 PM
ESPN
10/5/19
Rice
UAB
7:00 PM
ESPN+
10/5/19
UMass
Florida International
7:00 PM
ESPN3
10/5/19
Michigan State
Ohio State
7:30 PM
ABC
10/5/19
Tulsa
SMU
7:30 PM
ESPNU
10/5/19
Vanderbilt
Ole Miss
7:30 PM
SECN
10/5/19
California
Oregon
8:00 PM
FOX
10/5/19
Pittsburgh
Duke
8:00 PM
ACCN
10/5/19
Liberty
New Mexico State
8:00 PM
10/5/19
UTSA
UTEP
8:00 PM
ESPN+
10/5/19
Oregon State
UCLA
9:00 PM
10/5/19
San Diego State
Colorado State
10:00 PM
ESPN2
10/5/19
Washington
Stanford
10:30 PM
ESPN
10/5/19
Boise State
UNLV
10:30 PM
CBSSN
GRT games and contests
While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions (hey, it’s always the second mouse who gets the cheese) and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.
We’ll probably all find out who’s starting for Tennessee within an hour of kickoff. If it’s Brian Maurer, interest will certainly rise, regardless of #3 Georgia on the other sideline. But Tennessee’s recent history suggests the magic bullet usually isn’t:
2017: Jarrett Guarantano vs South Carolina
11-of-18 (61.1%) for 133 yards (7.4 ypa), zero TD/INT
Four of those completions and 72 of those yards came in the final 1:13, with Guarantano taking advantage of South Carolina’s prevent defense. The Vols got looks at the end zone but couldn’t get in. Tennessee ran the ball 39 times to 19 passing attempts, kicked three field goals, and lost 15-9.
2013: Josh Dobbs at #9 Missouri
26 of 42 (61.9%) for 240 yards (5.7 ypa), zero TD, 2 INT
Dobbs also ran the ball seven times for 45 yards, but Tennessee never threatened in a 31-3 loss to a Missouri program we were probably still learning to take seriously. He was also forced into action due to injury.
2013: Nathan Peterman at #19 Florida
4-of-11 (36.3%) for 5 yards (0.5 ypa), zero TD, 2 INT
No need to beat a dead horse here.
2011: Justin Worley vs #13 South Carolina
10-of-26 (38.5%) for 105 yards (4.0 ypa), zero TD, 2 INT
The Vols turned a muffed South Carolina punt into a 3-0 early lead, then didn’t score again. Tennessee was turned away on 4th-and-1 at the South Carolina 44 late in the first half, then had 1st-and-Goal at the Carolina 2 after an interception by Prentiss Waggner. Worley threw an interception two plays later, and Carolina responded with an infamous 20-play drive for an insurmountable 14-3 lead.
2010: Tyler Bray at Memphis
19-of-33 (57.6%) for 333 yards (9.8 ypa), 5 TD, 0 INT
Pro tip: it helps to play 2010 Memphis in your first career start!
2008: Nick Stephens at #10 Georgia
13-of-30 (43.3%) for 208 yards (6.9 ypa), 2 TD, 0 INT
Though no one would master the Clawfense, this wasn’t bad, really. Georgia easily took away the run (15 carries, 1 yard) but Stephens kept Tennessee around all day.
2006: Jonathan Crompton at #11 Arkansas
16-of-34 (47.1%) for 174 yards (5.1 ypa), 2 TD, 1 INT
Crompton’s first glimpse is remembered fondly when he replaced a gimpy Erik Ainge the week before against LSU, then almost led the Vols to victory on the strength of throwing deep to Robert Meachem. The next week at Arkansas he was far less successful; Ainge returned from injury to guide the Vols to the Outback Bowl.
The combined stat line in the first-time starts from Guarantano, Dobbs, Peterman, and Worley (three of them coming against Top 20 teams): 51-of-97 (52.6%) for 483 yards (4.98 ypa), zero touchdowns, six interceptions. And it’s not just passing touchdowns: JG, Dobbs, Peterman, and Worley failed to lead a single offensive touchdown drive in those four games.
If it’s Maurer, we should take the same long view for the program and place it on his shoulders. Anything he does well would be progress compared to his contemporaries. And if it’s nothing but struggle? He might still grow into anything from Worley’s respectable performances under Butch Jones or Peterman’s under Chaney at Pitt. And hey, that Dobbs kid did pretty well the next time he was a mid-season replacement starter.
You absolutely never know. But for a mid-season replacement against a ranked team, we are unfortunately good at guessing. As with everything else Tennessee right now, there’s definitely the opportunity to surprise. Maybe he will. If Maurer does, delightful. If he doesn’t, the better data point will come next week.
It’s Friday before Gameday, and that means it’s time for the Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game. If you’ve played before, you know the deal, and you can skip to the questions below. If not, catch up here.
Let’sa go!
Submit your answers to our three questions below.
Click the “Submit” button.
Copy and paste your answers in the comments below.
The Georgia game was always the first home game that the
Tennessee staff was targeting as a big recruiting weekend, but unfortunately
it’s not as big of a game associated with the Vols were expecting or hoping for
thanks to the disastrous start to the season.
At 1-3 Tennessee is over a 3-touchdown underdog to the Dawgs and has
slipped with many of its elite-level
targets. The staff spent the off week broadening
its board, and added a few more offers over the weekend in OT Alex Harrison and DL Tui Tuipulotu, two West Coast kids with
multiple high level Pac-12 offers. The
Vols also checked back in with dynamic ATH Jimmy
Holiday, a TCU commitment from Mississippi who got a Tennessee offer over
the summer. Importantly, Tennessee went all-in for the Whitehaven Three of
Linebackers Martavius French (an
Arkansas commitment), Tammarion McDonald
(a Mississippi State commitment) and longtime Vol target Bryson Eason.
Despite the rough start, Tennessee will still be hosting a
nice group of prospects in Knoxville over the weekend. Notably, the three Whitehaven LBs will be
taking their official visits, the timing of which is certainly interesting from
Tennessee’s perspective. Neither
Arkansas nor Mississippi State can feel very comfortable with the state of
their respective commitments at this point, nor can the Hawg staff like where
this seems to be heading with Eason either.
All three were on campus together over the summer for a 7on7 event but
this will be each of their first times seeing a game. Expect the Vols to make a huge impression on
all three, and even if none of them are on commitment watch this weekend it
could be a matter of time. And with the
state of Tennessee’s LB corps – lacking in bodies though full of young talent
between Henry To’oto’to, JJ Peterson, Jeremy Banks, and Aaron Beasley –adding
these three would absolutely upgrade the position starting immediately in 2020.
Bigtime DL target Omari
Thomas also plans to join his fellow Memphians in tripping to Knoxville,
though his will be a visit of the unofficial variety. This will allow the Vols to have an OV in its
back pocket in December when the early signing period gets closer, which is a
big deal. Thomas is reportedly close
with the Whitehaven kids, particularly Eason, which makes them all being on
campus together and even bigger deal.
Thomas would be an absolutely massive get at a position of annual need,
and Tennessee currently sits in a good spot for him. A successful weekend would go a long way
toward locking him down.
Speaking of large DL, Alabama (soft) commitment Jayson Jones will be traveling to
Knoxville for an unofficial visit after Vol TE Coach Brian Niedermeyer visited
his school during the bye week. Jones is
a massive human being – think freshman Vol DL Elijah Simmons but 6’6 instead of
6’0 – and is incredibly talented. The
Vols will look to make a strong impression that convinces Jones to set up an
return, official visit later in the fall.
The only other official visitor as of this writing will be
Midstate native OLB Reggie Grimes. It’s been since January that Grimes has been
to Knoxville, and right now South Carolina holds the lead for him with Alabama
lurking. A Tide legacy, it’s well-known
that were Alabama to give him the green light he’d commit there. But if they don’t, this is a Vols-Gamecocks
battle. Interestingly, Tennessee’s staff
has been wishy-washy when it comes to this recruitment, and though he’s a
borderline 5-star ranked player based on his elite measurables he hasn’t
exactly wowed people with his onfield performance. That said, he’s got the kind of size and
speed combination that the Vols simply don’t have enough of across the roster,
so the possibility of Pruitt and Ansley molding that very talented clay is very
appealing.
Although it hasn’t been confirmed, one can assume that the
Vol staff is trying very hard to get as many of the Tennessee commitments to
Knoxville for the game. For one, it
should be a great atmosphere and with it being a night game the entire day
should be a great reminder of what is so special about Tennessee football. So to the extent that any of them are feeling
the slightest bit hesitant about their commitments being back on campus will be
a good thing. In addition, having Vol
commitments do some peer recruiting with the uncommitted prospects on campus is
always helpful.
It’s likely that more names will end up on the visitor
list. Speculating at this point, but
with the strong contingent of Memphians coming to town and with his OV to Texas
A&M scheduled for the following weekend (although 3 are likely flying in
for their OV), the Vols would love to get OL Chris Morris in for the game.
Pruitt stopped by his game last Friday night after attending the
Whitehaven game, so it’s entirely possible that there could be a little
momentum here for a prospect who’s been assumed to be an Aggie lean since the
summer. DL Jay Hardy has been at each of Tennessee’s home games so far this
season and is as strong of a Vol lean as there is on Tennessee’s board –
getting him here again for a big game will be important, especially since he
could be close to making a decision in light of his injury suffered last Friday
night. LB/RB Len’neth Whitehead is fresh of his OV to South Carolina, which came
off the heels of an UV he took to Columbia two weeks prior, and the Gamecocks
have made a move there. The Vols would
love to get the Athens native back in town to see what presumably will be a
much better atmosphere than he saw on his OV for the Georgia State game and in
turn try to turn that recruitment back in its favor. Finally, WR Arik Gilbert, for whom the Vols appear to have faded a bit thanks
to the poor onfield performance so far this season, is probably a longshot to
come. But given that both of his
presumed current leaders – Alabama and Clemson – are off this week and his two
other finalists are playing in Knoxville, along with the fact that (hopefully)
his two committed teammates will be driving up, perhaps Tennessee can convince
him to visit.
Two other OVs to watch this weekend are bigtime Vol target
OLB Tyler Baron visiting Ohio State
– the Vols main competitor – and new OL target Harrison visiting Nebraska.
It goes without saying that a strong showing on the field –
just being competitive let alone winning – will go a long way towards showing
recruits that Pruitt has this thing headed in the right direction. For those that are in attendance it will be
even more important, especially when it comes to the atmosphere and showing them
that Vol fans stick with their team no matter what and don’t let opposing fans
take over Neyland Stadium. All of that
remains to be seen, of course. But while
this won’t necessarily be the star-studded visitor list that the Tennessee
staff probably envisioned before the season started – one can imagine them
trying to get guys like LB Noah Sewell
and OLB Sa’vell Smalls and the like
to see what a gameday experience in Knoxville is all about – there will still
be a strong group of players in attendance.
Making a move with all of them will go a long way towards securing
Pruitt’s second straight recruiting class that significantly improves the
roster for 2020 and beyond.
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