Will the Vols cover against Missouri?

Tennessee opened as a 4-point underdog to the Tigers this week, and it’s generally hung right around there all week, although some have it at -4.5. So . . . will the Vols cover against Missouri Saturday night in Columbia? Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine has to say and whether I think it’s right this week.

Vols-Tigers

From the perspective of Tennessee

Tennessee points:

  • Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 23.9
  • Missouri scoring defense for the season: 19.5

The Missouri scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Kentucky 20.1
  • UAB 18.7

Tennessee scored 30 points against UAB and 17 against Kentucky, which puts the SPM’s estimated points for Tennessee against Missouri at 23.6.

Missouri’s points:

  • Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 23
  • Missouri scoring offense for the season: 26

The Missouri scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):

  • Mississippi State 26.5
  • UAB 25.5

UAB scored 7 points against the Vols, and Mississippi State got 10. Estimated points for Missouri: 8.6

Estimated score: Tennessee 23.6, Missouri 8.6

From the perspective of Missouri

Missouri’s points:

  • Missouri scoring offense for the season: 26
  • Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 23

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Missouri opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • South Carolina 25
  • Kentucky 20.1

Missouri scored only 7 points against Kentucky but 34 points against South Carolina. Throwing that in the pot together means the SPM estimates 20.9 points for Missouri against the Vols.

Tennessee’s points:

  • Missouri scoring defense for the season: 19.5
  • Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 23.9

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Missouri opponent(s):

  • South Carolina 24.2
  • Kentucky 22.1

Kentucky scored 29 points against Missouri, and South Carolina scored 14. Estimated points for Missouri: 22.2

Estimated score: Missouri 20.9, Tennessee 22.2

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 22.9, Missouri 14.7

SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee -8.2

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 12.7

That difference of 12.7 makes this game one of the SPM’s favorites this week.

Eyeball adjustments

UAB as a comp alarms me. Removing them from the equation from the Vols’ perspective gives the Vols 17 points and Missouri 10. That would make the final estimate Vols 19.6, Tigers 15.5.

Also, there’s a big difference between the results against the two comps used for Missouri’s perspective. South Carolina and Kentucky are the two best comparisons, but the Tigers’ results against them are wildly divergent. Is Missouri the team that beat South Carolina 34-14 early in the season at home, or is it the team that recently lost 29-7 to Kentucky on the road? The machine splits that baby, which is probably the wisest thing to do under the circumstances, but it’s also setting the stage for possibly being really wrong.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Tennessee 20, Missouri 16. Even though I think the SPM is too high on the Vols in this one, I still like them to win outright as an underdog.

Other predictions from other systems

As I said before, the Vols opened as 4-point underdogs and you might find -4.5 somewhere. With an over/under of 45.5-46, that translates to something like Missouri 25, Tennessee 21.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Missouri 25-19, and gives the Vols a 38% chance of winning.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 41.3% chance of winning. For the record, FPI said basically the same thing about the Vols against Kentucky (42.8%), and that one was wrong.

Bottom line

The SPM and I both like the Vols to win outright as 4-point underdogs against Missouri this week. The machine is feeling good about it, but it is at odds with both Vegas and SP+.

  • Vegas: Missouri 25, Tennessee 21
  • SP+: Missouri 25, Tennessee 19
  • SPM: Tennessee 23, Missouri 15
  • Me: Tennessee 20, Missouri 16

What do y’all think?

SPM picks: Week 13

After over three years of hiding in the shadows of Tennessee previews, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine finally stepped out into the spotlight last week, cleared its throat, and promptly threw up.

The SPM’s performance so far in 2019

Last week, the SPM went 24-27 (47.06%) overall, and its favorites didn’t do much better. When the difference between the SPM spread and the Vegas spread was over a certain pre-determined number (the “confidence threshold”), the SPM was 6-7 (46.15%), and when the difference was over that number but under another pre-determined number (the “confidence range”), the SPM was only 3-5 (37.50%). It’s this last group that we’ve been referring to as our “favorites” and posted for the world to see last week.

This was out of character for the favorites, though. So far this season, the favorites have been under .500 only twice, once last week and once in the second week of the season when it went 3-4. Three other times, it’s been right at .500. The other weeks: 11-4, 6-2, 5-2, 12-3, 6-5, 8-3, and 7-2. I’m calling last week stage fright.

For the season, the SPM is now 301-284 (51.45%) overall, 127-96 (56.95%) over the confidence threshold, and 73-42 (63.48%) for the favorites.

Meanwhile, the SP+ had an excellent week, finishing at 29-21-1 (58%) and is still 55% on the season.

SPM favorite picks this week

Here are the SPM’s favorite picks for this week:

What do y’all think?

College Football TV Schedule: Week 13

The Tennessee Volunteers kick off in the evening slot this Saturday (7:30 on the SEC Network), but the appetizers start early and keep on coming all week long. Here’s when and where to find the games that matter most to Vols fans, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them.

The list curated just for Vols fans is up first, but there’s a full schedule following that so you can curate your own if you like.

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Eastern Michigan Northern Illinois 7:30 PM ESPN2 Channel Hop It's football
Ohio Bowling Green 7:30 PM ESPNU Channel Hop It's football

Look, it’s Week 13, and football will be gone before you know it. So . . . watch ’em if you got ’em.

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Akron Miami (OH) 7:30 PM ESPNU Channel Hop It's football
Toledo Buffalo 7:30 PM ESPN2 Channel Hop It's football

Or not. It’s up to you.

Thursday, November 21, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
NC State Georgia Tech 8:00 PM ESPN Live It's football

Did you know that 2019 Georgia Tech is engaging in college football’s most extreme makeover? How’s it looking? Um, needs more . . . something.

Friday, November 22, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Colorado State Wyoming 9:30 PM Good question Because I said so

I left this here because I was amused that this was the only Friday game and apparently even ESPN+ is washing its hair that night.

Gameday, November 23, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON
#9 Penn State #2 Ohio State 12:00 PM FOX Live Top 10 matchup
AFTERNOON
Texas A&M #4 Georgia 3:30 PM CBS Channel Hop Former Vols opponent
East Tennessee State Vanderbilt 3:30 PM SEC ALTERNATE DVR / Check in Future Vols opponent
#19 Texas #13 Baylor 3:30 PM FS1 Channel Hop Top 20 matchup
EVENING
Tennessee Missouri 7:30 PM SECN Live Go Vols

Honestly, there’s a lot of garbage on this weekend, and some of it features Top 10 and Top 20 teams. Who between Penn State and Ohio State would you most like to see lose at noon? Ditto in the Big 12 at 3:30 between Texas and Baylor (although now that I write that — Go Bears.) Vanderbilt can’t even get on the regular SEC Network in the afternoon slot, but hey, they might have a chance against FCS ETSU. Goooooo . . . Bucs!

Tennessee kicks off against Missouri at 7:30 on the SEC Network.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Date Away Home Time TV
11/19/19 Eastern Michigan Northern Illinois 7:30 PM ESPN2
11/19/19 Ohio Bowling Green 7:30 PM ESPNU
11/20/19 Akron Miami (OH) 7:30 PM ESPNU
11/20/19 Toledo Buffalo 7:30 PM ESPN2
11/21/19 NC State Georgia Tech 8:00 PM ESPN
11/22/19 Colorado State Wyoming 9:30 PM
11/23/19 #9 Penn State #2 Ohio State 12:00 PM FOX
11/23/19 Western Carolina #5 Alabama 12:00 PM ESPN
11/23/19 #8 Minnesota Northwestern 12:00 PM ABC
11/23/19 Samford #12 Auburn 12:00 PM SECN
11/23/19 Illinois #20 Iowa 12:00 PM BTN
11/23/19 #22 Oklahoma State West Virginia 12:00 PM ESPN2
11/23/19 Liberty Virginia 12:00 PM ACCNX
11/23/19 Michigan State Rutgers 12:00 PM BTN
11/23/19 Kansas Iowa State 12:00 PM
11/23/19 UCF Tulane 12:00 PM CBSSN
11/23/19 BYU UMass 12:00 PM
11/23/19 Ball State Kent State 12:00 PM ESPN+
11/23/19 East Carolina UConn 12:00 PM ESPN3
11/23/19 South Alabama Georgia State 2:00 PM ESPN+
11/23/19 Air Force New Mexico 2:00 PM ESPN3
11/23/19 Boston College #16 Notre Dame 2:30 PM NBC
11/23/19 Texas State #25 Appalachian State 2:30 PM ESPN+
11/23/19 Georgia Southern Arkansas State 3:00 PM ESPN+
11/23/19 Texas A&M #4 Georgia 3:30 PM CBS
11/23/19 #19 Texas #13 Baylor 3:30 PM FS1
11/23/19 #15 Michigan Indiana 3:30 PM ESPN
11/23/19 SMU #23 Navy 3:30 PM CBSSN
11/23/19 Nebraska Maryland 3:30 PM BTN
11/23/19 East Tennessee State Vanderbilt 3:30 PM SEC ALTERNATE
11/23/19 UT Martin Kentucky 3:30 PM SECN
11/23/19 Mercer North Carolina 3:30 PM ACCNX
11/23/19 Pittsburgh Virginia Tech 3:30 PM ESPN2
11/23/19 UCLA USC 3:30 PM ABC
11/23/19 Marshall Charlotte 3:30 PM
11/23/19 Louisiana Tech UAB 3:30 PM ESPN+
11/23/19 North Texas Rice 3:30 PM NFL
11/23/19 Western Kentucky Southern Mississippi 3:30 PM ESPN+
11/23/19 Purdue #14 Wisconsin 4:00 PM
11/23/19 #18 Memphis South Florida 4:00 PM ESPNU
11/23/19 California Stanford 4:00 PM PAC12
11/23/19 UTEP New Mexico State 4:00 PM
11/23/19 Syracuse Louisville 4:00 PM ACCN
11/23/19 San Jose State UNLV 4:00 PM
11/23/19 Old Dominion Middle Tennessee 4:30 PM ESPN3
11/23/19 Coastal Carolina UL Monroe 5:00 PM ESPN3
11/23/19 Troy Louisiana 5:00 PM ESPN+
11/23/19 Florida Atlantic UTSA 6:00 PM ESPN+
11/23/19 Arkansas #1 LSU 7:00 PM ESPN
11/23/19 Temple #17 Cincinnati 7:00 PM ESPN2
11/23/19 #24 Kansas State Texas Tech 7:00 PM FS1
11/23/19 Miami Florida International 7:00 PM CBSSN
11/23/19 #6 Oregon Arizona State 7:30 PM ABC
11/23/19 Houston Tulsa 7:30 PM ESPNU
11/23/19 Abilene Christian Mississippi State 7:30 PM SEC ALTERNATE
11/23/19 Tennessee Missouri 7:30 PM SECN
11/23/19 Duke Wake Forest 7:30 PM ACCN
11/23/19 TCU #10 Oklahoma 8:00 PM
11/23/19 Oregon State Washington State 9:00 PM PAC12
11/23/19 #7 Utah Arizona 10:00 PM
11/23/19 Washington Colorado 10:00 PM ESPN
11/23/19 #21 Boise State Utah State 10:30 PM
11/23/19 Nevada Fresno State 10:30 PM
11/23/19 San Diego State Hawai'i 11:00 PM

Tennessee-Missouri: Head-to-head statistical rankings

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Missouri Tigers. Bottom line for this week: Both defenses appear to have huge advantages, so whichever team can make the most of that, manage at least something respectable on offense, and win the turnover battle should win.

Details below.

When the Vols have the ball

Where’s the opportunity?

Well, maybe our quarterback won’t get sacked. And maybe our running backs won’t be tripped up behind our own line of scrimmage. Other than that, the answer to this question may be, “On defense.”

Where’s the danger?

Everywhere you look. Missouri’s defense is Top 10 overall, 6th against the pass and 34th against the run. When their side looks mostly green with a little bit of yellow and ours looks mostly orange, it’s not good news.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Use the off week to scheme up a couple of free and easy scores. Other than that, just balance, I guess, and see what you can get. And play slow so your defense isn’t worn out in the fourth quarter.

Vols on defense

Where’s the opportunity?

And the tables turn. Missouri’s offense is really struggling. This is especially true in the red zone, but mostly true everywhere. The Vols defense isn’t Top 10 or anything, but it does appear to be significantly better than the Tigers offense.

Where’s the danger?

The danger is that to the extent Tennessee might have an advantage when the Vols are on defense, it’s not as pronounced as Missouri’s advantage when the Vols offense is on the field.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Get off the field quick, but don’t give up any big plays. They are allergic to the red zone, so don’t let them avoid it by scoring from 20+ yards out.

Special teams

If the Vols can return a punt for a touchdown in this game, it’s going to help a lot. Problem is, we can’t sleep when punting to them, either.

Turnovers and penalties

Oh, good. They like to self-destruct via yellow flags. Neither team appears to be more vulnerable than the other to turnovers, so whoever can win that battle will have more of a leg up than usual.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine: Missouri and Vandy

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine


My assessment

The Vols were off this week, so there’s no change in expectations there. And Vanderbilt looked about the same as usual, so there’s no change there. Missouri, well . . . Kelly Bryant played, so that made me more uncomfortable about him playing next week against the Vols, but the Tigers offense still struggled even with him at the helm and the team at home. So no change for me there, either.

My current expected win total is still 6.4. I think 6 wins is pretty safe, and hitting the preseason goal of 7-5 will all come down to the Missouri game. That, by the way, would also mean that the team beat our GRT 2019 magazine preseason goals of finishing 4th in the SEC East behind Missouri despite playing much of the season without the guy on the cover. Win both remaining games, and the Vols finish 5-3, and the closest Missouri could get would be 4-4. These are eggs and not chickens, though, so Tennessee needs to keep them safe and warm for two more weeks.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

  • Preseason: 6.55
  • After Week 0: 6.6
  • After Week 1: 2.87
  • After Week 2: 2.37
  • After Week 3: 3.65
  • After Week 4: 2.9
  • After Week 5: 3.25
  • After Week 6: 3.85
  • After Week 7: 4.4
  • After Week 8: 4.7
  • After Week 9: 5.6
  • After Week 10: 5.9
  • After Week 11: 6.4
  • After Week 12: 6.4

Details: I still have Missouri at 60% and Vanderbilt at 80%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 5-5 (3-3), 3rd in the SEC East

Off this week.

The Vols’ future opponents

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 5-5 (2-4), 4th in the SEC East

Kelly Bryant played this week for Missouri against the Gators, and he was slippery but the offense was still mostly ineffective, and the team is now on a four-game losing streak. The Tigers defense was tough in the first half, but Florida still ended up getting 23 against them. The SPM hasn’t liked Tennessee in this one all season — until this week, and now it’s looking like it’s going to come down to keeping Bryant from getting back on track.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 2-8 (1-6), 7th in the SEC East

As Will has been fond of saying the past several weeks, Vanderbilt is just a bad football team. Against Kentucky this weekend, they managed only 198 yards of offense while giving up 528 yards to the Wildcats. If it weren’t for the recent history of struggles, we wouldn’t be worried about these guys at all.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 6-4 (3-3), 3rd in the Sun Belt East

There’s no shame in losing to App State, and sitting at 6-4 with two winnable games to go after a 2-10 season last year has to feel good for the Panthers.

BYU Cougars

Current record: 6-4

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 6-5 (5-2), 3rd in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 9-2 (6-2), 2nd in the SEC East

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 9-1 (6-1), 1st in the SEC East

Georgia looked good against Auburn and had the game well in hand until Auburn caught some lightning and made a game of it. The Tigers actually ended up with more yards and more first downs than the Bulldogs, but it was too late. With the Gators and Tigers now behind them, Georgia looks ready to roll the rest of the way home into the post-season.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 4-6 (2-5), 5th in the SEC West

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 9-1 (6-1), 2nd in the SEC West

Prayers for Tua. To make the SEC Championship Game again this year, Alabama would have to win out (including the Iron Bowl) and have LSU lose twice. The former is possible, even without Tua, but one of LSU’s remaining games is against Arkansas. In other words, LSU is not going to lose twice.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 4-7 (3-5), 4th in the SEC East

We warned in our preseason magazine that South Carolina had the toughest schedule in the SEC and that the Gamecocks could struggle even if they were good. It’s hard to say at this point whether they’re actually good, but there can be no doubt that they have succumbed to that brutal schedule. They’ve lost 7 games already with only No. 3 Clemson left, and they’re likely to finish this season 4-8 and home for the holidays.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 7-3 (4-2), 3rd in C-USA West

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 5-5 (3-5), 4th in the SEC East

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

Bye Week Big Board – In the Trenches and On Defense

With the Vols on their second of two bye weeks of the season, the Tennessee staff will not only take the opportunity to rest its team and develop its younger players but also reassess its 2020 recruiting board.  They’ll likely hit the road and touch base with prospects while at the same time likely handing out at least a handful of new offers.  After previously looking at the Offensive Big Board, below we’ll take a look at the Defensive and Offensive Line boards and evaluate where these prospects sit on Tennessee’s board as well as their reciprocal interest.  As a reminder, the Vols currently have 18 commitments, giving them 7-8 spots to work with and multiple needs to address:

OL

Current commitments:

James Robinson

Cooper Mays

Javontez Spraggins

Kyree Miller

Prospects:

Chris Morris (Texas A&M commitment)

Marcus Henderson

RJ Adams

Jeremy Flax (JUCO)

With four really strong OL commitments, including at least a couple who can play multiple positions once they get to college, OL is the position where the Vols both can afford to be picky and also potentially pass on adding another player altogether.  To that point, OL is almost certainly to be a Best Player Available position, where Tennessee likely fills needs elsewhere before taking another OL.  That’s speculation, and it does seem like if Chris Morris specifically called and wanted in the Vols would be hard pressed to tell them no.  Morris is a very good prospect who Tennessee has recruited for over a year, and it seems certain that they will try and get him back to Knoxville at least one time before he signs.  Henderson is a fellow Memphis native (though Morris now plays football in West Memphis, AR) whose recruitment has been a bit of a rollercoaster after starting as a highly coveted prospect, dropping off a lot of radars due to putting on bad weight, and then heating back up again thanks to a strong senior season.  He’s tentatively scheduled to OV to Tennessee for the Vanderbilt game, and from there it will be interesting to see what the Vols think.  Adams is an Under Armour All-American who likely projects more as an(other) interior OL prospect.  The former PSU commitment visited unofficially for Tennessee’s UAB weekend and by all accounts is very interested in returning for an OV.  Flax is very intriguing – a big (6’6, 320) pure OT JUCO prospect with three seasons of eligibility (ala Jahmir Johnson) that makes him less of a “risk” than your normal JUCO OL.  He’s got recent offers from UK, Louisville, and Texas Tech along with his new Vol offer.  Whether he ends up visiting or not is TBD, and his spot on the board will be better known once that is worked out.

DL

Current commitment:

Dominic Bailey

Prospects:

Tyler Baron

Octavius Oxendine

Omari Thomas

Jay Hardy (AU commitment)

Reginald Perry

Damarjhe Lewis

Yaya Diaby (JUCO)

Without a doubt a huge area of need in this (and every) class, Tennessee has put itself in a position where it can either hit a grand slam or strike out.  Bailey is a top-shelf product and a good anchor for the DL class himself, providing some positional versatility along the DL.  He’s a guy you happily take in every DL class and has been solid since his commitment many months ago.  From there, most of the board is relatively well-known.  It seems unlikely that a scenario would arise in which Tennessee wouldn’t take Baron (who some might characterize as a pass-rushing OLB but from here projects as a DL fairly soon in his career), Oxendine, and Thomas.  Those are all high-level SEC DL prospects who bring the kind of size and talent that Tennessee must continue to stack at the position.  Baron continues to flirt with Kentucky and to a lesser extent OSU, but in the end it’s really hard to see him going anywhere other than Tennessee.  Oxendine is another UT-UK battle that the Vols appear to be winning (right now), whlile Thomas is a UT-Ole Miss recruitment that will ultimately come down to head and heart (Tennessee) vs. logistics (Ole Miss) for the Memphis native.  Hardy, who most know shocked everyone by committing to the Tigers instead of the homestate Vols, is also still a take – the Vols will likely try and quickly figure out what went wrong with a legacy who visited campus upwards of a dozen times and yet chose someone else.  Whether it’s his position coach not being his main recruiter or simply not getting enough love if the staff felt he was in the bag (and by all accounts they had every reason to since he told them he was coming on multiple occasions), something happened and Tennessee needs to figure it out quickly.  Perry is a good looking prospect in his own right – big and powerful yet not lacking quickness – who is visiting officially for the Vanderbilt game.  The Vols will hope to have some clarity on at least a handful of other targets – at DL and other positions – before deciding how hard to push for him.  Lewis is a former Auburn commitment who’s stock has dropped from where it was last spring but is still a possibility for the Vols depending on how the chips fall, and Diaby is a new offer from the JUCO ranks.  Frankly, given that Tennessee loses seven(!) DL after the 2020 season due to graduation the idea of bringing in a guy who would only have one more year of eligibility after that doesn’t make a ton of sense unless the staff thinks he’s a future NFL player.

OLB

Current commitment:

Jimari Butler

Prospects:

Morven Joseph (FSU commit)

Jevon Banks (Mississippi State commit)

Simeon Barrow (Michigan State commit)

Jasheen Davis (WF commit)

Khari Coleman (Kansas commit)

Jonathan Horton

Sa’vell Smalls (Washington commit)

Butler is a guy who we’re very high on, and a nice recovery for Tennessee from an evaluation perspective after losing the commitment of BJ Ojulari to LSU.  The Vols could use at least one more edge rusher/OLB in this class, and if they got the right combination of the above they’d likely take more than one.  We broke down the board pretty thoroughly here, even before the Butler commitment, and not much has changed since.  Joseph and Banks have both scheduled for their respective official visits to Knoxville for the Vanderbilt game, while the Vols have continued to try with especially Smalls as recruiting ace Brian Niedermeyer checks on him each time he heads out on his 5-Star West Coast tour.      

ILB

Current commitment:

Bryson Eason

Martavius French

Tamarion McDonald

Prospects:

Len’neth Whitehead

Desmond Tisdol

Vai Kaho

Noah Sewell

One could make the case that only Eason will end up as an ILB from the committed group above, as French could easily project to the DL or even OLB while McDonald could end up playing some sort of Nickel/Money/Safety hybrid position.  That said, all are high level who check a lot of boxes for the Vols.  Whitehead and Tisdol are likely both Tennessee leans at this point (Tisdol has actually named the Vols as his leader) and also both multi-positional prospects who could play LB or RB, and both recruitments having seen ebbs and flows in terms of the Vols.  Whitehead was thought to be close to committing to Tennessee when he took his OV for the Georgia State debacle, then was close to pledging the South Carolina over the last couple of months.  However, with the turmoil in Columbia the Vols have sensed an opportunity and pounced, and right now Whitehead looks like Tennessee’s to lose.  Whitehead has stated his preference for playing RB, and that’s where he’ll get his first shot; however, the money here is on him realizing quickly that he can be an All-SEC LB and the defensive minded Jeremy Pruitt helping him figure that out.  Tisdol was also once a Gamecock lean, but that was after he was close to committing to Auburn first.  Per 247Sports, Auburn coaches are particularly high on his potential at LB and the Tigers have tried to circle back to him since they lost the commitment of 5-star Trenton Simpson.  Tisdol is also a good looking RB prospect.  Again however, he likely has a higher ceiling in college at ILB, and ideally the Vols would land a higher level pure RB prospect.  The question is whether or not there are enough spots to take both Whitehead AND Tisdol AND another pure RB. In terms of timing, Whitehead will likely make it back to Knoxvulle and then potentially commit before Tisdol’s OV the 12/13 weekend, though Tisdol could be incentivized to try and jump in ahead of him – Tennessee coaches will have to figure out how to manage all of that.  In the meantime, Kaho has emerged as a legitimate target at ILB.  Like Tisdol he’s on the shorter side in the 6’0-6’1 range, but the Nevada commitment from Reno has seen his stock rise of late.  The Polynesian Bowl honoree is clearly not a firm Wolfpack commitment, as his official visit to Knoxville for the Vanderbilt game will have been preceded by an OV to Colorado in October.  His brother Ale is a scholarship LB at Alabama, so distance is likely not a factor – additionally Ale is apparently universally thought to be underutilized in Tuscaloosa, so if they could “convince” him to take his talents to Tennessee by signing Vai we’d be all for it.  Just sayin’.  Sewell is a well-known prospect to UT fans and another of the 5-star players who Niedermeyer continues to try and keep the Vols involved with.  Thought to be an Oregon-Georgia battle, Sewell is a freakish player whose brother plays for the Ducks as one of if not the best OL in the country.  Obviously the Vols would prefer for him to stay out West should he not come to Knoxville, but they won’t stop trying to get Sewell back for an OV.  He’s one of a few prospects for whom the Vols would 100% make room if he wanted to come.

DB

Current commitment:

Keshawn Lawrence

Mordecai McDaniel

Art Green

Prospects:

Kendall Dennis

Emmanuel Appiah (JUCO)

Ramon Henderson

Ronald Williams (JUCO)

Joel Williams

Tommy Wright

Decamerion Richardson

The Vols have a nice group of commitments so far in the secondary, with three players who could all potentially play multiple positions.  Lawrence and McDaniel in particular are stud athletes and will bring a swagger to the Tennessee defensive backfield that has been building that with the additions of guys like Alontae Taylor, Bryce Thompson, and Jaylen McCullough.  Green has had a somewhat subpar season that has seen his stock drop according to the recruiting gurus, but he’s an early enrollee with really good size who’s played both S and CB in Junior College so as long as the coaches are sold on him there is little reason to worry. 

In a world in which numbers didn’t matter, it would make sense to add a 4th DB to this class.  Obviously that’s not the case, so it’s quite likely that in order for any of the DBs on the board to be takes it will have to be in a Best Player Available situation.  Dennis unofficially visited Knoxville a couple of times over the summer but has been thought to be an Auburn lean for a while now.  He’s tentatively scheduled for an OV for the Vanderbilt game.  Appiah is a relatively new addition to the board and is another DB who the Vols and Auburn could battle it out for.  The NJ native is a close friend of Jarrett Guarantano and has had a huge season.  He’s also an EE, which makes him a more attractive prospect as someone more likely to make a quick impact.  He’s scheduled to visit the 12/13 weekend.  Henderson is a relatively new name on the board and someone Tee Martin has been quietly working on.  A guy who could play on either side of the ball, Henderson is another EE scheduled for the Vanderbilt game and the 4-star will decide between OU, Notre Dame, UCLA, Utah and the Vols.  Ronald Williams has become a much more highly coveted prospect with recent offers from the likes of Alabama, while Joel Williams has been on the scene for a while and is a former UF commitment whose interest in and from the Vols has vacillated throughout the process.  Neither those two nor Wright and Richardson – two other recent offers – currently have OVs scheduled to Tennessee right now. 

Looking back on the Vols’ 2017 coaching candidates

This past summer, after Jeremy Pruitt had his first full season as Tennessee’s head coach under his belt, we looked back on the long list of Vols’ coaching candidates to see how they did in 2018 relative to Pruitt. Now that Pruitt has turned a 1-4 beginning in 2019 into a 4-1 hot streak, we thought we’d use the second bye week of the season to take another peek.

This is a long post. The details of each candidate’s updates are below, but I’ve included my own re-ranking both here at the top and at the bottom for the sake of convenience and in the interest of fighting back against carpal tunnel.

Here’s my re-ranking as of right now:

Good bets

  1. Dan Mullen
  2. Jeremy Pruitt
  3. Jimbo Fisher
  4. Gary Patterson
  5. Matt Campbell
  6. Justin Fuente
  7. Mike Norvell
  8. Mike Leach
  9. Les Miles
  10. P.J. Fleck
  11. Joe Moorhead
  12. Jeff Brohm

Calculated risks

  1. Lane Kiffin
  2. Chip Kelly
  3. Jon Gruden
  4. Charlie Strong
  5. Scott Frost
  6. Mel Tucker
  7. Mike Bobo

Unknowns (as head coach)

  1. Brent Venables
  2. Kevin Steele
  3. Tee Martin

Goodness, what did we almost do?

  1. Chad Morris
  2. Willie Taggart
  3. Greg Schiano
  4. Bobby Petrino
  5. D.J. Durkin

Head coaches hired as head coaches

1. Dan Mullen

2018

  • Hired as head coach at Florida
  • Went 10-3 (5-3), tied for 2nd in the SEC East
  • Beat No. 23 Mississippi State, No. 5 LSU, and No. 7 Michigan
  • Only losses were to Kentucky, Missouri, and No. 7 Georgia

2019 so far

  • Currently 8-2 (5-2), 2nd in the SEC East
  • Beat then No. 7 Auburn, 24-13
  • Lost to then No. 5 LSU 42-28 and No. 8 Georgia 24-17
  • Team is currently No. 11 in the CFP rankings
  • On pace to exceed GRT 2019 expectations

2. Jimbo Fisher

2018

  • Hired as head coach at Texas A&M
  • Went 9-4 (5-3), tied for 2nd in the SEC West, No. 16 in both polls
  • Beat No. 13 Kentucky, No. 7 LSU, a bunch of others; lost by only 2 to No. 2 Clemson

2019 so far

  • Currently 6-3 (3-2), 4th in the SEC West
  • No wins over ranked teams
  • Lost to No. 1 Clemson 24-10, No. 8 Auburn 28-20, and No. 1 Alabama 47-28
  • Not ranked in the CFP rankings
  • On pace to meet or exceed GRT 2019 expectations

3. Willie Taggart

2018

  • Hired as head coach at Florida State
  • Went 5-7 (3-5), tied for 5th in the ACC Atlantic
  • Beat No. 20 Boston College, but lost to No. 20 Virginia Tech, No. 17 Miami, No. 2 Clemson, No. 21 NC State, No. 3 Notre Dame, No. 11, and unranked Syracuse.

2019

  • Fired mid-season after a 4-5 (3-4) start capped by a 27-10 loss to rival Miami

4. Jon Gruden

2018

  • Hired as head coach at the NFL’s Oakland Raiders
  • Went 4-12, beating only Cleveland (in OT), Arizona (by 2), Pittsburgh (by 3), and Denver

2019 so far

  • Currently 5-4, 2nd in the AFC West

5. Scott Frost

2018

  • Hired as head coach at Nebraska
  • Went 4-8 (3-6); Beat only Minnesota, Bethune-Cookman, Illinois, and Michigan State, all unranked

2019 so far

  • Currently 4-5 (2-4), 6th in the Big Ten West
  • Only wins over South Alabama, Northern Illinois, Illinois, Northwestern
  • Currently on a three-game losing streak to then-unranked teams

Coordinators hired as head coaches

1A. Joe Moorhead

2018

  • Hired as head coach at Mississippi State
  • Went 8-5 (4-4), 4th in SEC West
  • Beat No. 8 Auburn, No. 16 Texas A&M, and others; finished No. 25 in the Coaches Poll

2019 so far

  • Currently 4-5 (2-4), 5th in the SEC West
  • Lost four of the past five games, with the lone win coming against an Arkansas team that just fired its Year 2 coach
  • Will fail to meet GRT 2019 expectations by at least two games

1B. Jeremy Pruitt

2018

  • Hired as head coach at Tennessee
  • Went 5-7 (2-6), last in the SEC East
  • Beat No. 21 Auburn and No. 11 Kentucky, but lost to No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Georgia, No. 17 West Virginia, and unranked Florida, South Carolina, Missouri, and Vanderbilt

2019 so far

  • Currently 5-5 (3-3), 3rd in the SEC East
  • Won four of the last five games, with the one loss coming to No. 1 Alabama
  • Two bad losses to unranked teams to begin the season
  • Other three losses all to Top 10 teams
  • On pace to meet GRT 2019 expectations overall, to exceed expectations for the SEC

3. Chip Kelly

2018

  • Hired as head coach at UCLA
  • Went 3-9 (3-6), 5th in the Pac-12 South
  • Only wins were against California, Arizona, and USC, all unranked

2019 so far

  • Currently 4-5 (4-2), 3rd in the Pac 12 South
  • Started the season 1-5 (1-2)
  • Currently on a three-game win streak, which includes a win over No. 24 Arizona State

4. Chad Morris

2018

  • Hired as head coach at Arkansas
  • Went 2-10 (0-8), last in the SEC West
  • Only beat Eastern Illinois and Tulsa

2019 so far

  • Fired mid-season after a 2-8 (0-6) start, on the heels of a non-competitive seven-game losing streak

Candidates who got fired shortly after we were talking about hiring them

The next three guys not only didn’t get any offer compelling enough to move somewhere, they couldn’t even keep their existing jobs for one more season.

Greg Schiano

2018

  • Remained as defensive coordinator at Ohio State in 2018.
  • When Urban Meyer was suspended for three games, he handed the reins not to Schiano but to offensive coordinator Ryan Day.
  • The Buckeyes defense was not as good in 2018, and when Meyer retired at the end of the season, Day was made head coach. He did not retain Schiano after the season.
  • Schiano was hired as defensive coordinator for New England in February, 2019, but left after only a month.

2019 so far

  • Likely to return to Rutgers to take the open head coaching job

Bobby Petrino

2018

  • Remained at Louisville as head coach until he was fired in November
  • Team went 2-10 (0-8), last in ACC Atlantic
  • Only wins were against Indiana State and Western Kentucky

2019 so far

  • Back on the coaching carousel this November

D.J. Durkin

2018

In fall camp last year, a player died, and allegations of toxic culture under Durkin led to his suspension. He was later reinstated for a day and then fired.

2019 so far

Currently a consultant for the Atlanta Falcons.

Head coaches who stayed put

1. Mike Leach

2018

  • Basically hired by John Currie, who apparently did not have the authority to do so
  • Stayed at Washington State
  • Went 11-2 (7-2) and tied for first in the Pac-12 North
  • Beat No. 12 Oregon, No. 24 Stanford, but lost to No. 16 Washington. Beat No. 24 Iowa State in the Valero Alamo Bowl
  • Finished No. 10 in the AP and Coaches polls

2019 so far

  • Currently 4-5 (1-5), 6th in the Pac 12 North
  • No wins over ranked teams
  • Lost five of the last six games

2. Les Miles (former head coach, unemployed in both 2017 and 2018)

2018

  • Not hired by anyone until after the season.
  • Now head coach at Kansas for 2019

2019 so far

  • Currently 3-6 (1-5), 9th in the Big 12
  • No wins over ranked teams
  • Lost five of the last six games, although this stretch includes a two-point loss to No. 15 Texas
  • Has Kansas much more competitive than in the past

3. Matt Campbell

2018

  • Remained at Iowa State as head coach
  • Went 8-5 (6-3), tied for 3rd in the Big 12
  • Beat No. 25 Oklahoma State, No. 6 West Virginia, and several others

2019 so far

  • Currently 5-4 (3-3), 4th in the Big 12
  • No wins over ranked teams
  • Two one-point losses to No. 19 Iowa and No. 9 Oklahoma

4. Mike Norvell

2018

  • Remained at Memphis as head coach
  • Went 8-6 (5-3), tied for 1st in the American West
  • No wins against ranked teams

2019 so far

  • Currently 8-1 (4-1), 3rd in the American Athletic West
  • One win over a ranked team: 54-48 over No. 15 SMU
  • Currently No. 18 in the CFP rankings

5. Gary Patterson

2018

  • Stayed at TCU as head coach
  • Went 7-6 (4-5), tied for 5th in the Big 12
  • No wins against ranked teams

2019 so far

  • Currently 4-5 (2-4), 7th in the Big 12
  • Beat No. 15 Texas, 37-27
  • Lost to No. 12 Baylor, 29-23 in 3OT
  • All losses but one (to Iowa State) were one-possession games

6. Charlie Strong

2018

  • Stayed at South Florida as head coach
  • Went 7-6 (3-5), 4th in American East
  • No wins against ranked teams, and lost last six games

2019 so far

  • Currently 4-5 (2-3), 4th in the American Athletic East
  • No wins over ranked teams
  • Only game against a ranked opponent resulted in a 49-0 loss to No. 19 Wisconsin
  • Two opportunities against No. 17 Cincinnati and No. 18 Memphis up next

7. P.J. Fleck

2018

  • Remained as head coach at Minnesota
  • Went 7-6 (3-6), tied for 5th in the Big 10 West
  • No wins against ranked teams

2019 so far

  • Currently 9-0 (6-0), 1st in the Big Ten West
  • One win over a ranked opponent, but it was a good one: 31-26 over No. 4 Penn State
  • Two more opportunities against ranked opponents to close out the season (No. 20 Iowa tomorrow and No. 14 Wisconsin on 11/30)

8. Justin Fuente

2018

  • Remained at Virginia Tech as head coach
  • Went 6-7 (4-4), tied for 3rd in ACC Coastal
  • Beat No. 19 Florida State, No. 22 Duke

2019 so far

  • Currently 6-3 (3-2), 3rd in the ACC Coastal
  • One win over a ranked team: 36-17 over No. 19 Wake Forest
  • One-point loss to No. 16 Notre Dame
  • Two other losses were one-possession to Boston College and a blowout loss to Duke

9. Jeff Brohm

2018

  • Remained at Purdue for his second season
  • Went 6-7 (5-4) and tied for second in the Big 10 West
  • Beat No. 2 Ohio State, No. 16 Iowa, and No. 23 Boston College, but lost to Northwestern, Eastern Michigan, Missouri, Michigan State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Auburn, all unranked

2019 so far

  • Currently 4-6 (3-4), 5th in the Big Ten West
  • No wins over ranked teams
  • One-possession loss to No. 23 Iowa

10. Lane Kiffin

2018

  • Remained at Florida Atlantic as head coach
  • Went 5-7 (3-5), 5th in C-USA East
  • No wins against ranked teams

2019 so far

  • Currently 7-3 (5-1), 1st in Conference USA East
  • Two losses against No. 5 Ohio State and No. 18 UCF to start the season, then 7-1 the rest of the way

11. Mike Bobo

2018

  • Remained as head coach at Colorado State
  • Sidelined by health issues early, and team went 3-9 (2-6), 5th in MWC Mountain
  • Only wins were Arkansas, San Jose State, and New Mexico

2019 so far

  • Currently 4-5 (3-2), 4th in Mountain West Mountain
  • No wins over (or losses to) ranked teams

Coordinators who stayed put (at the time)

1. Brent Venables

2018

  • Remained at Clemson as DC
  • 5th nationally, 2nd in the ACC in total defense last year

2019 so far

  • Still at Clemson as DC
  • 4th nationally, 1st in the ACC in total defense

2. Mel Tucker

2018

  • Remained at Georgia as DC. Hired as head coach at Colorado for 2019.
  • 13th nationally and 2nd in the SEC in total defense last year

2019 so far

  • First year as head coach at Colorado
  • Currently 4-6 (2-5), 6th in the Pac 12 South
  • Two wins over then-ranked teams: 34-31 OT over No. 25 Nebraska, 34-31 over then No. 24 Arizona State
  • 1-5 over the last six games
  • Colorado was 5-7 each of the past two seasons before Tucker arrived

3. Kevin Steele

2018

  • Remained at Auburn as defensive coordinator
  • 38th nationally and 8th in the SEC in total defense

2019 so far

  • Still at Auburn as DC
  • 28th nationally and 4th in the SEC in total defense

4. Tee Martin

2018

  • Remained at USC as OC; was released along with most of the staff in late November
  • 83rd nationally and 10th in the Pac-12 in total offense last season
  • Hired as a wide receivers coach at Tennessee

2019 so far

  • Still coaching wide receivers at Tennessee

Re-ranking the 2017 Tennessee coaching candidates

Based on all of that, here’s how I’d rank them as of right now:

Good bets

  1. Dan Mullen
  2. Jeremy Pruitt
  3. Jimbo Fisher
  4. Gary Patterson
  5. Matt Campbell
  6. Justin Fuente
  7. Mike Norvell
  8. Mike Leach
  9. Les Miles
  10. P.J. Fleck
  11. Joe Moorhead
  12. Jeff Brohm

Calculated risks

  1. Lane Kiffin
  2. Chip Kelly
  3. Jon Gruden
  4. Charlie Strong
  5. Scott Frost
  6. Mel Tucker
  7. Mike Bobo

Unknowns (as head coach)

  1. Brent Venables
  2. Kevin Steele
  3. Tee Martin

Goodness, what did we almost do?

  1. Chad Morris
  2. Willie Taggart
  3. Greg Schiano
  4. Bobby Petrino
  5. D.J. Durkin

Your turn

What about you? How would you rank those guys now?

SPM picks: Week 12

Tennessee’s off again this week, so I figured we’d use this spot for an SPM update and its favorite picks for the week.

The SPM’s performance so far in 2019

This week, the SPM went 25-23 (52.08%) overall. When the difference between the SPM spread and the Vegas spread was over a certain pre-determined number (the “confidence threshold”), the SPM was 12-5 (70.59%), and when the difference was over that number but under another pre-determined number (the “confidence range”), the SPM was 7-2 (77.78%).

For the season, the SPM is now 277-257 (51.87%) overall, 121-89 (57.62%) over the confidence threshold, and 70-37 (65.42%) in the confidence range.

SP+ finished last week at 26-22 (54.17%) and is still 55% on the season. Our SPM has had its legs for over a month now, but it still hasn’t caught up to SP+ for the season.

SPM favorite picks this week

Here are the SPM’s favorite picks for this week:

What do y’all think?

Bye Week Big Board – Offense

With the Vols on their second of two bye weeks of the season, the Tennessee staff will not only take the opportunity to rest its team and develop its younger players but also reassess its 2020 recruiting board.  They’ll likely hit the road and touch base with prospects while at the same time likely handing out at least a handful of new offers.  Below we’ll take a look at the Offensive Board by position and evaluate where these prospects sit on Tennessee’s board as well as their reciprocal interest.  As a reminder, the Vols currently have 18 commitments, giving them 7-8 spots to work with and multiple needs to address:

QB

Current commitment: Harrison Bailey

Prospect:

Jimmy Holiday

Holiday is a TCU commitment from Madison, MS who has shined over the course of his senior season.  We featured him in an article talking about the need for playmakers in early October, after which Holiday took an official visit to Tennessee in October for the UGA weekend.  While it’s unclear whether or not TCU is recruiting him as a QB or as more of an ATH (read: WR), what’s not in doubt is the fact that Holiday considers himself a QB.  The Vols have told him that they will absolutely give him his first opportunity at QB, which seems to have resonated with him.  Bottom line is he’s ~6’0 and 180 pounds, runs a sub-4.4 40 and notched the 7th best overall SPARQ score at a Nike Regional event over the summer that included over 300 other prospects – and ALL of that translates on film. Whether or not the Vols need another QB in this class is up for debate, which is why the fact that Holiday projects as an electric playmaker with the ball in his hands no matter where he ends up a more valuable prospect for Tennessee.  Holiday took his OV to TCU over the summer, so the Horned Frogs won’t get a chance to host him in that manner again.  He’s been committed to them for a while now, so flipping him won’t be particularly easy, but the chance to play QB and play in the SEC could be enough if the Vols decide to push.

RB

Current commitment: Tee Hodge

Prospects*:

Zaquandre White (JUCO)

Ty Jordan – Texas commitment

John Gentry – Arkansas decommitment

Don Ragsdale (JUCO) – USM commitment

Like QB, one could make the case that Tennessee doesn’t need another RB in this class.  All three of Tennessee’s RBs who have played this season – Ty Chandler, Tim Jordan, and Eric Gray – have eligibility remaining, and even the one senior in the RB room in Carlin Fils-aime could potentially redshirt and return.  Hodge’s senior season has been plagued by injury and he hasn’t put up monster stats, but there is a reason that schools like Wisconsin and Oregon wanted him up to when he committed to the Vols over the summer, and in the Badger’s case continue to try.  Hodge looks like a solid and capable SEC RB, something that’s not to be understated.  And assuming all of the above return in 2020 that would give Tennessee four (or five, pending CFA) RBs.  It would also set them up to need at least two in 2021, which in theory is precarious.  However, at the same time that would give the Vols a tremendous sales pitch.  Because for all of the great things that Jeremy Pruitt has done in terms of upgrading the talent and depth in the program, one sore spot he’s so far failed to correct is Tennessee’s decade-long inability to land a bigtime, no-brainer, blue-chip 5-star RB.  While Eric Gray was a highly regarded and coveted prospect, he’s just not on the level of the kind of RBs that the likes of Alabama and Georgia have been adding literally year after year, sometimes landing more than one in a class.  There are still more than a few things that Tennessee needs to do to reach the next level of truly going toe-to-toe with the Tide and Bulldogs as well as competing for championships, but having that kind of gamebreaking RB is one of them.  That has to be considered an absolute MUST for 2021.

As for the RBs on the board should the Vols choose to add one more, it’s an interesting group.  Given the above, on the one hand it makes sense to add a JUCO who would bring maturity and experience to a potentially shorthanded group. On the other hand, if the concern is more about who is around past 2020 then a JUCO makes less sense.  Either way, White is seemingly the most likely to make an instant impact, as he has the strongest pedigree as a former 4-star FSU signee and has had a nice sophomore year in Junior College.  The Vols have been on him for a while but so far he hasn’t been to campus since Pruitt was the coach, although it should be noted that he’s not been anywhere else either this year.  Jordan is the other one of the group who the Vols have been recruiting for some time, and he took an OV to Knoxville this summer before ultimately deciding to stay close to home, at least partially due to an illness in the family.  With the Vols adding a commitment from his high school teammate OL Kyree Miller, however, Volquest.com has reported that Tennessee has reengaged at least a little with Jordan.  Ultimately it seems hard to see the small but very dynamic back opting to leave the state, but like with most if not all prospects Tennessee covets they likely won’t stop trying.  The last three RBs on the board are all very new offers – with Tennessee tendering each of them in the past week or so.  Gentry is another Lone Star state standout, and Arkansas’s firing of Coach Chad Morris caused him to back off of his pledge to the Razorbacks.  Gentry seems like a Utah lean and as of this writing Amos appears to be ready to jump in the sinking ship that is Gamecock football, so those two could be off the board before Tennessee has time to gain any footing. Finally, Ragsdale, the newest offeree, is the second JUCO on the board and is currently committed to homestate Southern Mississippi.  He’s a big, powerful back whose film shows some impressive shiftiness but a lack of top end speed – think a bigger Tim Jordan while at the same time thinking of your prototypical Southern Miss RB. 

*It is very important to note that Tennessee is recruiting both Desmond Tisdol and Len’neth Whitehead as Athletes who could play both RB or ILB.  Both of them are high level prospects and both could possibly be considered Vol leans at this point (with the South Carolina implosion moving the needle for both).  That said, not only is there still a need for another ILB in the class, but I have a hard time seeing Jeremy Pruitt put bigtime players on offense when he has a choice of keeping them on the defensive side.  Therefore for these purposes neither prospect is being counted on the RB board

WR

Current commitments: Jalin Hyatt, Jimmy Calloway, and Darion Williamson

Prospect(s):

Rakim Jarrett (LSU commitment)

Thaiu Jones-Bell (Alabama commitment)

Dee Beckwith

With the impending graduation of two potential All-SEC players in Jajuan Jennings and Marquez Callaway, Tennessee’s passing game is inevitably going to look different in 2020.  Whether it ends up worse is TBD, as the move of UGA transfer Deangelo Gibbs from DB to WR and the decision to redshirt the dependable soon-to-be 5th year senior Brandon Johnson will give the Vols some veterans that they didn’t necessarily think would be there when the season started.  At the same time, freshmen Cedric Tillman, Ramel Keyton and Jerrod Means have gotten some real playing time this season, giving the Vols some more experience as well.  And of course Josh Palmer will be in line to take over as the headliner of the group.  Finally, in the second year of OC Jim Chaney’s system there could be more involvement in the passing game for both the TEs (especially if they add the stud prospect below) and RBs. 

That said, Tennessee needs an infusion of both quantity and quality at the position in the 2020 class, and although they have three commitments they could stand to add at least one more and are recruiting as such.  Even more because Calloway is still looking to take visits – to at least OU if not also UK and maybe homestate UGA if they end up offering – and Williamson has visited Memphis this season and also is less likely to be a Year 1 contributor given his inseason knee injury.  Tennessee was thought to be the leader for Jarrett in the spring until he made a surprising commitment to LSU (no one knew at that point their offense would resemble the Greatest Show on Turf), and even a summer official visit to Knoxville wasn’t enough to flip him.  The Vols have continued to stay in touch and so far Jarrett hasn’t told them a final “no,” while at the same time taking a late October OV to Alabama, but that one looks like an uphill battle.  Similarly, Tennessee was 1B to Alabama’s 1A when Jones-Bell committed over the summer, with some actually thinking that he was going to announce for the Vols.  An unofficial visit to Knoxville for the South Carolina game was a great sign for Tennessee – now it will be about getting an official visit for the December signee.  He’s talked about taking his OV to Bama the second to last weekend before the early signing period and then to Knoxville for the last weekend; in theory that sets up well for the Vols but one can be sure that Alabama will do everything it can to shut that down when he’s in Tuscaloosa.  Volquest.com has hinted that Jones-Bell’s mother isn’t a big fan of the Tide and she did accompany him on that recent trip to Knoxville.  Ultimately it could prove too difficult to flip a Bama commitment who the Tide is all in on, but the Vols are very much in the thick of it for an instant impact pass catcher.  The final player on the board is arguably the most interesting, as Beckwith is not only a multi-positional player on the gridiron but also a high level basketball player.  He’s now been offered the chance to play both sports at Tennessee to go with his other top schools like Florida (arguably Tennessee’s top competition), Ole Miss and instate Auburn.  At 6-5, 215 pounds he shows uncanny agility playing part-time  QB for his high school team while also WR/TE and even RB.  He’d be a Swiss Army Knife kind of player for Chaney, capable of playing Wildcat QB (and passing, too) while also both running and catching the football.  Beckwith is probably the most likely of the three and the Vols would do well to add him to the collection of WR talent they already have committed.  Should they combine him with either of Jarrett or Jones-Bell the Vols would have hit a grand slam at the position in the timeliest manner possible.

TE

Current commitments: None

Prospect: Darnell Washington

We’ve made the argument that Washington is the only TE the Vols should attempt sign.  Since then he’s made an unofficial visit to Knoxville for the UAB game, making it close to a half dozen visits to Tennessee since last year.  He also took his Alabama official visit this past weekend, which by all accounts helped the Tide get back into the race.  Georgia is still considered one of his top choices, and he’s taking an OV to Oregon this coming weekend.  That will leave him one more OV, which the Vols will be fighting Miami for.  Indications from 247 Sports are that he’s more likely to visit Knoxville than Coral Gables, and if he does so you really have to like Tennessee’s chances here.  The Vols have had uber-recruiter Brian Niedermeyer on Washington from the get-go, and will have gotten not only Washington’s last official visit but two of his final four campus visits overall and the chance to make the final impression.  Washington is a certain Day 1 starter at Tennessee and would instantly help the Vols recoup some of what will be lost in the passing game with the graduation of Jennings and Callaway. em

College Football TV Schedule: Week 12

The Vols are off this week, but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing for Tennessee fans to watch. Here’s when and where to find the games that matter most to Vols fans, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them.

The list curated just for Vols fans is up first, but there’s a full schedule following that so you can curate your own if you like.

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Western Michigan Ohio 7:30 PM ESPN2 Channel Hop It's football
Eastern Michigan Akron 8:00 PM ESPNU Channel Hop It's football

Do you care about certain geographical areas of Michigan and/or cities in Ohio? No? Do you like a little football better than no football? Yes? Okay, then.

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Bowling Green Miami (OH) 8:00 PM ESPNU Channel Hop It's football
Northern Illinois Toledo 8:00 PM ESPN2 Channel Hop It's football

Do the good people of Ohio not believe in football on Saturdays anymore?

Thursday, November 14, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Buffalo Kent State 7:00 PM CBSSN Channel Hop It's football
North Carolina Pittsburgh 8:00 PM ESPN Channel Hop It's football

Now that we’ve exhausted all of The Other Ohio state schools, we can get to some Power 5 teams. Well, two of them anyway.

Friday, November 15, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Louisiana Tech Marshall 7:00 PM CBSSN Channel Hop It's football
Fresno State San Diego State 9:30 PM ESPN2 Channel Hop It's football

Never mind. But tomorrow’s Gameday!

Gameday, November 16, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON
#9 Penn State #2 Ohio State 12:00 PM FOX Live Top 10 matchup
AFTERNOON
Texas A&M #4 Georgia 3:30 PM CBS Channel Hop Former Vols opponent
East Tennessee State Vanderbilt 3:30 PM SEC ALTERNATE DVR / Check in Future Vols opponent
#19 Texas #13 Baylor 3:30 PM FS1 Channel Hop Top 20 matchup
EVENING
Tennessee Missouri 7:30 PM SECN Live Go Vols

Vols fans can get a look at Tennessee’s next opponent at noon on Saturday when the Missouri Tigers host the Florida Gators on CBS. Immediately following that one, No. 6 Georgia and No. 11 Auburn face off on the same channel, although Tennessee’s final opponent — Vanderbilt — is on at the same time on the SEC Network, so DVR that one for later reference.

The evening slot features No. 9 Oklahoma and No. 12 Baylor at 7:30 on ABC.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Date Away Home Time TV
11/12/19 Western Michigan Ohio 7:30 PM ESPN2
11/12/19 Eastern Michigan Akron 8:00 PM ESPNU
11/13/19 Bowling Green Miami (OH) 8:00 PM ESPNU
11/13/19 Northern Illinois Toledo 8:00 PM ESPN2
11/14/19 Buffalo Kent State 7:00 PM CBSSN
11/14/19 North Carolina Pittsburgh 8:00 PM ESPN
11/15/19 Louisiana Tech Marshall 7:00 PM CBSSN
11/15/19 Fresno State San Diego State 9:30 PM ESPN2
11/16/19 #3 Alabama Mississippi State 12:00 PM ESPN
11/16/19 Indiana #4 Penn State 12:00 PM ABC
11/16/19 #10 Florida Missouri 12:00 PM CBS
11/16/19 #13 Wisconsin Nebraska 12:00 PM BTN
11/16/19 Michigan State #14 Michigan 12:00 PM FOX
11/16/19 Kansas #23 Oklahoma State 12:00 PM FS1
11/16/19 UMass Northwestern 12:00 PM BTN
11/16/19 TCU Texas Tech 12:00 PM ESPN2
11/16/19 VMI Army 12:00 PM CBSSN
11/16/19 Alabama State Florida State 12:00 PM ACCNX
11/16/19 Tulane Temple 12:00 PM ESPNU
11/16/19 UTEP UAB 1:00 PM ESPN3
11/16/19 #24 Navy #15 Notre Dame 2:30 PM NBC
11/16/19 Idaho State BYU 3:00 PM ESPN3
11/16/19 Coastal Carolina Arkansas State 3:00 PM ESPN+
11/16/19 UL Monroe Georgia Southern 3:00 PM ESPN+
11/16/19 Troy Texas State 3:00 PM ESPN3
11/16/19 #1 Ohio State Rutgers 3:30 PM BTN
11/16/19 #19 Wake Forest #5 Clemson 3:30 PM ABC
11/16/19 #6 Georgia #11 Auburn 3:30 PM CBS
11/16/19 West Virginia #16 Kansas State 3:30 PM ESPN
11/16/19 #21 Memphis Houston 3:30 PM ESPN2
11/16/19 Central Michigan Ball State 3:30 PM CBSSN
11/16/19 Virginia Tech Georgia Tech 3:30 PM ACCNX
11/16/19 Kentucky Vanderbilt 3:30 PM SECN
11/16/19 Texas Iowa State 3:30 PM FS1
11/16/19 #17 Minnesota #18 Iowa 4:00 PM FOX
11/16/19 Syracuse Duke 4:00 PM ACCN
11/16/19 Incarnate Word New Mexico State 4:00 PM
11/16/19 Wyoming Utah State 4:00 PM ESPNU
11/16/19 Hawai'i UNLV 4:00 PM
11/16/19 Rice Middle Tennessee 4:30 PM ESPN+
11/16/19 Stanford Washington State 4:30 PM PAC12
11/16/19 Louisiana South Alabama 5:00 PM ESPN+
11/16/19 Southern Mississippi UTSA 6:00 PM ESPN+
11/16/19 #2 LSU Ole Miss 7:00 PM ESPN
11/16/19 #20 Cincinnati South Florida 7:00 PM CBSSN
11/16/19 Air Force Colorado State 7:00 PM ESPN2
11/16/19 #9 Oklahoma #12 Baylor 7:30 PM ABC
11/16/19 South Carolina Texas A&M 7:30 PM SECN
11/16/19 Louisville NC State 7:30 PM ACCN
11/16/19 Arizona State Oregon State 7:30 PM FS1
11/16/19 Appalachian State Georgia State 7:30 PM ESPNU
11/16/19 UCLA #8 Utah 8:00 PM FOX
11/16/19 New Mexico #22 Boise State 10:15 PM ESPN2
11/16/19 Arizona #7 Oregon 10:30 PM ESPN
11/16/19 USC California 11:00 PM FS1