Last week we looked at the last 15 years of Tennessee’s SP+ data and found that the Vols’ 2020 projection in that metric would be a season most similar to 2009, 2012, and what became of 2016. The common thread in those years: you came to kickoff almost every single week believing the Vols had a real chance to win.
If the 2020 Vols had a real chance to win every Saturday, from Furman to Alabama, they would be on a short list in Tennessee’s recent past. In the 11 seasons since Phillip Fulmer left the sideline, the Vols have been a three-possession underdog at kickoff 17 times (via closing lines at covers.com). Only in 2015 and 2016 did the Vols escape a three-possession line the entire year. And only in the other two best-comparison SP+ years – Lane Kiffin’s 2009 and Derek Dooley’s final campaign in 2012 – were the Vols only a three-possession underdog once. Kiffin took the air out of a +30 line against Urban Meyer; Dooley’s Vols were +19 against Alabama in his final season.
Including Fulmer’s final 2008 season, the Vols lost 35 games by at least 17 points in the last 12 years. The only season in that stretch without a three-possession loss: 2015, which is the only season without a two-possession loss since 1998. The next year the Vols were blown out by Alabama but had no other three-possession losses.
But again, other than 2015 and 2016, losing multiple games by 17+ points has become the norm. The transition years from Butch Jones to Jeremy Pruitt are particularly damning, with 11 three-possession losses in 2017 and 2018. Other than 2015 and 2016, the only seasons in the last 12 years with just two 17+ point losses:
2009: Dexter McClustered at Ole Miss, and an underrated Virginia Tech team pulled away late
2014: at #4 Oklahoma, at #3 Ole Miss. The Vols were feisty when Josh Dobbs took over, but also faced Georgia and Florida in down years; this was Missouri’s second division title year
Here too, I’d include 2012 in the conversation: the loss to Florida was technically three possessions at 37-20, but as you might not want to recall, the Vols led that thing midway through the third quarter before the defense became non-existent. They were blown out by Alabama. And they threw in the towel at Vanderbilt in Dooley’s final game.
So, if the 2020 Vols just played every opponent to within two possessions? They’d join only 2015 as the only Vol squad to do so since…2001! And once you start going backwards from there, you’re on a first-name basis with the three-possession losses in the 90’s: Nebraska, two losses in The Swamp plus a Florida loss in Knoxville featuring Todd Helton, and two weird bowl blowouts to Penn State. That’s the entire list of 17+ point losses in the 90’s.
Have a chance to win every game/stay within two possessions, and 2020 would join 2015, 1998-2001, 1996, 1992, and 1990 in the last 30 years. So of course, it’s not the only benchmark for a successful season – the Vols did plenty of good in years when they got up on the wrong side of the bed one week. But it would be a clear step forward. And more than anything, for fans it’s about the value of that belief: “We have a chance to win this game.”
It’s almost magazine time – more on that soon from Joel – but this week our writing staff had a conversation on this year’s cover and title. After the Kiffin/Dooley era and Butch Jones’ first season, we – as writers and fans – have spent many of the last six summers asking some form of the same question: “Okay, we’re going to make progress this fall, right? But how much?”
Now on our fifth coach in the last 13 years, the same length of time between our last division title and now, I find a lot of the necessary patience is now built in to that question. The majority don’t look at the 2020 Vols and their 2020 schedule and use the “back” word with large swaths of confidence. That’s never been a fruitful pursuit in the first place, the 90’s now three decades gone. But the hope remains that we will go “forward” this fall. How far?
Setting aside the large list of uncertainties related to the coronavirus, some of the most helpful context for me comes from the same source we use often when talking football. Bill Connelly’s SP+ data is our favorite predictive model for the future, and one of the most interesting when looking back at the past.
In last year’s magazine, we did an adaptation of a story on our site from January 2019, ranking the last 50 years of Tennessee Football in SP+. The metric itself goes back to 2005, but in 2016 Connelly developed estimated SP+ ratings all the way back to 1970. The primary takeaway from our story: to show just how far the Vols fell in 2017, the worst Tennessee season of the last 50 years by a healthy margin. That framed Jeremy Pruitt’s initial work, which still finished third-to-last in SP+ since 1970, but represented significant progress over the year before. Pruitt’s rebuilding task is historically most similar to what the Vols were trying to accomplish in the early 1980’s, which Johnny Majors ultimately paid off in 1985.
That story used percentile ratings: the 2017 Vols were in the 17th percentile, while Tennessee’s best teams of the last 50 years were in the 95th-98th percentile all-time. But in framing 2020, I find it helpful to just use the actual SP+ data from the last 15 years. In this year’s preseason SP+ ratings, the Vols earned a 14.7 (points better than the average team on a neutral field). How does that compare to the last 15 years of Tennessee football?
Working backwards through the list, we get:
The Bottom
2017: 1.2 SP+ rating (points better than the average team on a neutral field)
No need to dwell here: total collapse to 4-8, blown out by Missouri and Vanderbilt, no other option but change.
The First Year (or Years 0 & 1 for Dooley)
2013: 5.1
2018: 5.5
2011: 6.9
2010: 7.7
Not much surprise here either: the first seasons for Dooley, Butch, and Pruitt, plus an injury-riddled second year for Dooley. One other common theme here: all four of these teams faced particularly difficult schedules. Dooley and Butch got Oregon in year one, Pruitt got West Virginia. Dooley’s second year, the last of facing two rotating SEC West opponents, saw the Vols get #1 LSU and #8 Arkansas. Butch got the Kick Six Auburn team in year one; Pruitt got (and beat) a ranked Auburn team in year one.
Fulmer’s Down Years Are Now Our Year 2
2019: 10.7
2008: 12.0
2014: 12.2
2005: 12.3
Last season is at the bottom of this tier; not a bad accomplishment considering what happened in September. The 2019 Vols would be five point favorites over the 2018 Vols, themselves four point favorites on their 2017 counterparts. The 2008 Vols had the nation’s number one defense in SP+…and the Clawfense finished 97th. Butch’s year two died against Florida but was resurrected by Josh Dobbs. And the 2005 Vols got sick on the quarterback carousel with injuries just as contagious.
The good news about this tier: in all four of these cases, Tennessee was significantly better the next season.
We Have a Chance to Win This Game
2020: 14.8 (preseason projection)
2012: 15.1
2009: 16.2
2016: 16.3
The preseason SP+ ratings put the 2020 Vols as four points better than their 2019 counterparts on a neutral field. That means they’d be two touchdown favorites on the 2017 Vols. Not bad work from Jeremy Pruitt going into his third year.
What’s the common theme in this tier? I think it’s competitiveness: not with Missouri and Vanderbilt, but with everyone. In 2009, 2012, and 2016, only against Alabama in 2012 should the Vols truly have had no shot. Some of these games turned into nice surprises for us (Kiffin vs Florida and Alabama). Some of them went very differently than we thought at kickoff the other way (Dexter McClustered in 2009, Dooley’s last hurrah at Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Vanderbilt in 2016).
Remember for 2016 in particular, this rating takes the entire season into account. In preseason, the 2016 Vols were at 19.2 in SP+. Those three points could’ve made a difference against Texas A&M, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt. So you’ll also note this tier features records from 5-7 to 9-4. Now, I don’t think the 2020 Vols are looking at 5-7 unless there are catastrophic injuries. But herein lies the beauty of SP+: every play counts, and it’s meant to give you an idea of a team’s strength, not the value of their resume. Not all 9-4’s are created equal, as we learned under Butch Jones. In this group you also had total breakdowns on the defensive side of the ball in 2012 and 2016 tied to new coordinators, another plus for the 2020 Vols who bring back the same faces.
So this becomes a helpful framework for 2020: can I come to kickoff thinking we have a chance to win every Saturday? This group had its flaws, but I do think they’re at least a half-step above, “Can beat anyone and be beaten by anyone.” You’re still going to get an upset here and there. But for teams on this level, you could believe victory was possible every week.
Competing For Championships
2006: 18.9
2015: 19.5
2007: 20.2
The step beyond for Tennessee: get back to Atlanta. The 2007 Vols did it. The 2015 Vols were one play(s) away against the Gators from doing it. And the 2006 Vols were ranked eighth in November before Erik Ainge got hurt.
Here again, this framing is more fruitful to me than chasing memories of the 90’s. And here again, each of these teams lost four games. But their relative strength was a step above what we saw in the previous tier: that group we expected to compete, this group (which is where 2016’s preseason numbers would go) we expected to win.
To me, the question isn’t about whether the Vols can break into this tier in 2020. If they do the work well in the previous tier – competitive with Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama, and Georgia – they’ll have a chance for clear success and progress.
Of course, these numbers are all about predicting your ability to win. The most important thing is to actually go do it. Hitting what feels like the top portion of realistic projections for 2020 – win one of those four big games and don’t get upset by anyone else – and following it up with a Citrus/Outbackish bowl victory would put the Vols at 10-3. Tennessee hasn’t won 10 games in a season since 2007, and hasn’t ended a year with less than four losses since 2004. That would be a tremendous accomplishment.
The wins will always matter most. But Pruitt has done a good job getting forward progress from the Vols from the bottom of 2017. There should be more of that on the way this fall. How much?
If I can come to kickoff 13 times this year and believe we’ve got a real chance to win, that’s a really good start. If this team can finish off some of those wins, the Vols will keep this whole thing moving forward.
With yesterday’s decision by the NCAA to extend its
recuiting dead period another month to June 30th, let’s take a look
at a handful of ramifications for Tennessee recruiting:
It goes without saying that, along with Ohio State,
Tennessee has flat out owned the COVID-19 imposed dead period. The Vols have added 14 (!!!) commitments
during this time span, including two 5-stars and six 4-stars. This in turn has rocketed the Vols class
ranking to #2 nationally behind only the aforementioned Buckeyes and made
Tennessee the talk of college football.
So it goes without saying that, whatever Coach Jeremy Pruitt and his
staff – from assistant coaches to the social media and player personnel teams –
are doing is working better than what everyone else is doing. One might therefore argue that an extension
of this dead period, where no on-campus visits are allowed, is beneficial to
Tennessee’s efforts going forward. The
old “If it ain’t broke don’t fix it.”
Due to the extension of the dead period, several prospects
that Tennessee is heavily recruiting won’t be able to take official visits to
other schools that were planned for June.
Most importantly among them, instate TE Hudson Wolfe – one of the
top priorities on Tennessee’s entire board – was scheduled to take an official
visit to Ohio State the weekend of June 12th, when the Buckeyes were
set to host Wolfe among at least a dozen of their current commitments. With that visit off the table – and his
mother was set to attend as well having never been to Columbus before – that
could hurt OSU (the presumed leader) should Wolfe want to make a decision
sooner rather than later. Especially as
Tennessee continues to recruit him harder than ever. 4-star DE Landyn Watson, who just
named Tennessee among his final six schools, was set to take an official visit
to Virginia Tech the following weekend, but that’s obviously cancelled. With the Hokies thought to be the leader in
that recruitment, this gives Tennessee more time to recruit Watson harder.
On Tuesday, the NCAA also passed a blanket rule lifting the
limit on phone and Zoom-type calls for 2021 football recruits during the
since-extended dead period. By pushing
that dead period back and month, that’s 30 more days (plus the rest of May)
that recruits will be subject to constant harassment from schools if they don’t
go ahead and commit somewhere. Now,
obviously, in this day and age a commitment doesn’t mean that schools stop
calling, but it certainly slows it down.
It also allows a young man to just turn off his phone for a while since
he’s secure knowing he’s got a spot somewhere that he likes and wants to
be. What does that mean? Maybe nothing. But it could absolutely accelerate the
timeline even further for some prospects who are already tiring of the process.
With 21 commitments already and a board of realistic targets
that in all honesty Tennessee would feel good about with about half that amount
of pledges, the Vols sit in an enviable position vis a vis supply (of
scholarships) and demand (number of elite recruits very much feeling the Vols
at the moment). And with the above changes
to the rule, that could put Tennessee in a strong spot over the next 45 (or
more) days as more and more recruits feel the urge to shut things down with a
commitment.
Speaking of commitments, Tennessee looks to be in a very
strong position to pick up #22 when TE Miles Campbell from South
Paulding High in Douglasville, GA announces his decision Monday May 18th. Campbell, already up to 6’4 and 235 pounds
vs. his listed 6’3 220, will be celebrating just his 17th birthday the day of
his commitment, making him pretty young relative to his grade. That leaves even more room for physical
growth for a young man who displays a tremendous amount of speed and body
control for someone his size. Campbell,
who has offers from Auburn, Florida, North Carolina and Michigan among others,
also shows the kind of willingness to block and take on contact (even as a ball
carrier from the Wildcat on a few occasions) that is needed along with the
pass-catching skills for what Tennessee wants in a TE. With Tennessee in need of two Tight Ends in
this class, Wolfe will absolutely have right of first refusal for the second
spot if Campbell does indeed commit to the Vols. If he decides to head elsewhere though, the
Vols do have a nice board behind him. Tennessee
is in great shape with Jumbo ATH Trinity Bell from Albertville, AL, and
appears to have a lead on instate Auburn.
The catch with Bell is that, at 6’7 and 250 pounds, he’s projectable at
multiple positions from OT to DE along with TE.
So in theory the Vols could take a commitment from Bell and still have a
TE spot open. Tennessee is also right at
the top for the #1 JUCO TE in the country in Quentin Moore and is competing
with homestate Washington – the Huskies may have the lead for Moore but
Tennessee is right there with them. Finally,
there is 4-star Nevada native Moliki Matavao, who has a top 6 that includes
Tennessee, Washington (see above with Moore), UGA (who is more focused on Brock
Bowers), Penn State (where he’s never visited), Oregon and UCLA. Matavao visited Knoxville last year and
appears to hold Tennessee in high regard, along with apparently having a
relationship with star LB Henry To’o To’o. Finally, of course, Tennessee also has commitments
from two Dee Beckwith clones in Roc Taylor and Julian Nixon, who
could both project as Hybrid WR/TEs
As long as Tennessee continues
recruiting like it has been for the last 4-6 weeks or so, no one in Knoxville is
going to complain about an extension of the dead period. And with the upcoming commitment of Campbell
next Monday along with a handful of other prospects who could be on the verge
of pledging to the Vols, look for Coach Pruitt and Tennessee to continue to
take full advantage and put on more steam.
They have proven that no matter the condition they are prepared to outwork,
out-evaluate, and outdo the rest of the SEC and, frankly the rest of the
college football world.
If 2014 South Carolina is the decade’s most rewatchable game, 2011 Cincinnati remains one of its most rewatchable offensive performances. Tyler Bray went for 400+ yards, Da’Rick Rogers and Justin Hunter each had 10 catches for 100+ yards, and all three were playing just the second game of their sophomore seasons. It’s worth repeating: other than everything from the first half of 2016, no performance of the 2010’s made you feel like we were closer to being back than walking out of that Cincinnati game.
It made Justin Hunter’s ACL tear on the opening drive at Florida that much harder. Then Bray broke his thumb at the end of an eight-point loss to Georgia. Then the Vols faced #1 LSU, #2 Alabama, #9 South Carolina, and #8 Arkansas four of the next five weeks.
That part went about how you’d think; in hindsight it’s interesting to note the difference between Derek Dooley’s injury-plagued second team getting blown out by Top 10 teams and Butch’s last/Pruitt’s first teams getting blown out by Missouri and Vanderbilt. But in the moment in 2011, it felt like rock bottom from a competitiveness standpoint.
The building frustration led to Thumbwatch 2011; there was a great clip I can’t find anymore where Dooley, clearly tired of being asked about Bray’s health multiple times a week, just exclaimed, “He’s got a broken thumb!” When I get asked the same question too many times, that quote still plays in my head.
But Bray got the green light to return against Vanderbilt. This was James Franklin’s first season in Nashville, and after getting blown out by #12 South Carolina and #2 Alabama, Vandy only lost to Georgia by five, Arkansas by three, and Florida by five. Bowl eligibility was on the table for both teams.
2011 Vanderbilt is one of those games that wouldn’t matter much if Tennessee was “back”, but was really good in its moment, then lost so much of its meaning because of what we’re actually here to talk about today. The Vols went up 7-0 early, Vandy missed a field goal, then Bray threw an interception on the very next play. But he connected with Rogers on a beautiful third down touchdown pass to put Tennessee back in front 14-7.
We’re going along nicely from there, still up 14-7 with 3rd-and-goal with five minutes left in the third quarter. But Bray was pick-sixed, changing the complexion of the entire game. Vanderbilt took the lead three minutes into the fourth quarter. Tennessee made an epic 13-play drive to tie it again, capped by a fourth-and-goal touchdown from Bray to Rogers on a one-handed grab. And Prentiss Wagner ended Vanderbilt’s threat in regulation with an interception at the 35 yard line.
So now, the Vols are 5-6. More importantly, you can still believe the things you wanted to believe after the Cincinnati game: with a healthy Bray and Justin Hunter set to return next fall, this team could be all the things you wanted them to be. Maybe we’d even get a shot at redemption in the Music City Bowl as a nice consolation prize. Things were looking up: injuries took it from us in 2011, but we could really be back in 2012.
#6: All we have to do is beat Kentucky
Tennessee had beaten Kentucky 26 years in a row, at the time the longest-active streak in the nation among annual rivals, and the longest in the history of the SEC (since broken by Florida vs Kentucky at 31 years until 2018). Unlike Vanderbilt, which played in zero bowl games during Tennessee’s 22-year win streak from 1983-2004, Kentucky made the postseason eight times during those 26 years of losing to Tennessee, including the last five seasons in a row.
But they would not be going bowling in 2011. A 2-0 start and a close loss to Louisville were followed by blowouts. Florida won by 38, LSU by 28, South Carolina by 51. In November they did beat Houston Nutt’s final Ole Miss squad, then lost to Vanderbilt by 30. The week before playing the Vols they were feisty in Athens, losing to Georgia 19-10.
That loss knocked them to 4-7 and broke the bowl streak. Rich Brooks revitalized the Cats, who hadn’t made a bowl game since a two-year run with Tim Couch in 1998 and 1999. But Brooks led them to four straight seven-or-eight win seasons from 2006-09, including the memorable 2007 group who beat #9 Louisville and #1 LSU before falling to the Vols in four overtimes.
The rise under Brooks (and subsequent 6-6 campaign in Joker Phillips’ first year) made the Tennessee series closer, but didn’t change the outcomes. In those 26 years, only eight Tennessee-Kentucky games were decided by a single possession, and three of those came in 2006, 2007, and 2009. The Vols made memorable comebacks against Kentucky in 1995 and 2001. In between, including all the games against Tim Couch, the Vols won 56-10, 59-31, 59-21, 56-21, and 59-20. It’s like we were trying to make them so similar.
Sometimes I find that we talk about the current state of the Florida series the way Kentucky talks about us: either “surprise” blowouts, or an unbelievable sequence of events we can sum up in just a few words. Alex Brown. Gaffney. Clausen in the rain. 4th-and-14. The hail mary.
For us, they are particularly cruel and unusual mistakes. For Florida, it’s simply “finding a way to win.” For Kentucky against the Vols in the 2010’s, there’s a 21-0 lead with Jared Lorenzen, still tied for the third-biggest comeback in Tennessee history. A nine-point lead in Knoxville with 12 minutes to play in 2004, swiftly undone by (checks notes) Rick Clausen. There are any number of moments in the 2007 game, from the one yard line on the last play of regulation to just making a 34-yard field goal in double overtime. No Tennessee win has been of greater consequence in the last 13 years.
Even after the events of 2011 and 2017, when the Vols were somehow +4 in turnovers and completed a hail mary on the last play of the game but still lost, I’d imagine this mindset still creeps in for Kentucky fans. The 2017 game was almost a relief for us, the final nail for Butch Jones. But the last two years haven’t produced the results Kentucky fans had in mind against Jeremy Pruitt: blown out in 2018 with their best team since the 1970’s, turned away at the goal line in Lexington last fall. Kentucky still hasn’t won in Knoxville since 1984.
All that to say this: in 2011, you fully expected to beat Kentucky. But you especially expected to beat Kentucky on the heels of that win over Vanderbilt, when Kentucky is playing a wide receiver at quarterback.
Stats of interest from the box score:
Matt Roark: 4-of-6, 15 yards
Total Yards: Tennessee 276, Kentucky 215
Penalties: Tennessee 5-for-32, Kentucky 11-for-85
And yet.
Kentucky “drove” 62 yards in 15 plays to kick a field goal on their opening drive. Early in the second quarter, they blocked a field goal. On Tennessee’s next drive, the Vols had 4th-and-4 at the UK 31, went for it, and failed to convert. So the Cats led 3-0 at the break, but after that first drive had four punts on three three-and-outs. They opened the second half with another one, Bray was intercepted at his own 34-yard line, then Kentucky went four-and-out. The Vols punted. Three-and-out again.
When we say the Vols got beat by a wide receiver playing quarterback, it’s really the insult after the injury. Roark did his job in not turning the ball over. He did almost nothing else. But on 2nd-and-goal with six minutes left in the third quarter, and the Vols finally ready to quit screwing around…they fumbled. And Kentucky made one drive, including a 26-yard Roark scramble on 3rd-and-12, that found the end zone. The Cats led 10-0 with 14 minutes to play.
I still wasn’t worried. It’s Kentucky. And three plays later, Bray and Rajion Neal connected for a 53-yard touchdown pass. Word. Everything is back on.
Kentucky, as you’d expect, went three-and-out. But Bray was sacked on first down, and the Vols punted back. Kentucky got one first down and punted again. This time the Vols failed to convert a 3rd-and-4, punting it back from their own 26 yard line with 4:34 to go. And one more time, Tennessee’s defense produced a three-and-out. That’s eight for the game.
Needing a field goal to tie, Tennessee got the ball at their own 28 with 2:35 to go. Bray and Rajion Neal connected again, this time on 3rd-and-10, to move the ball to the Vol 41.
But two plays later Bray was sacked again. And then on 4th-and-17, he threw an interception.
It still feels surreal.
Joe Rexrode had a really good story on Derek Dooley and Daniel Hood in The Athletic this week. With almost a decade of hindsight, I’m not sure Dooley did any better or worse than a reasonable expectation of the guy who went 17-20 at Louisiana Tech and took over in mid-January. The biggest what-ifs with him are after this game, many of them named Sal Sunseri. But this is the game that made all those what-ifs carry so much extra weight. Losing to Kentucky – to this Kentucky team – cashed in any reserve goodwill he had. Tennessee fans really wanted him to work for a long time because he wasn’t Lane Kiffin. And the 2011 season in particular was full of so many legitimate reasons for the benefit of the doubt between the schedule and the injuries.
But none of that matters when you lose to Kentucky in the last game of the year, a bitter aftertaste that removed any benefit of all the doubt to come. A fun night against NC State led to a flickering moment of real hope against the Gators two weeks later, the Vols back in the Top 25 and ahead of Florida midway through the third quarter. But that lead vanished in quick and brutal fashion. The Vols were close a number of times against the rest of the 2012 schedule. But close wasn’t nearly enough, most especially because of what happened in this game the year before. The weight of the Kentucky loss carried over everything else to come for Derek Dooley, ultimately ushering in a new regime.
This loss meant a lot for Dooley’s career, but hasn’t changed much in the series overall, or Tennessee’s fortune as a program. The Cats are still trying to beat Tennessee. And the Vols are still trying to get back.
Had a chance to catch up with Tennessee WR target the other day. The Birmingham-area standout talked about what he’s been doing during the shutdown, the current status of his recruitment, and more below.
Q: What’s your current height and weight?
A:
“I’m 6’2, 185 pounds.”
Q:
Tell me about your game as a WR. What
are your strengths and what are the major things you think you need to work on?
A: “ My
strengths are attacking the ball, my jumping ability, and route running. I’ve been working a lot on using my hands to
get separation from DBs.”
Q: Do you feel
like you’re going to be a leader for your team? If so, what kind of
leadership qualities do you bring?
A: “Yes
sir. I bring motivation to my teammates
on and off the field. And I’m big on
showing younger guys the right way to do things.”
Q: Do you play
any other sports? Talk about those and
how you think competing in multiple sports helps you on the gridiron.
A: “I play
basketball, Small Forward. It’s helped
with my leaping ability.”
Q: What have
you been doing workout wise during the shutdown?
A: “Drills,
cone work, weights, and just a lot of running.”
Q: “How many
times have you been to Tennessee’s campus?
Talk about the experience
A: “A lot, I
think maybe six or seven times. The
facility really stands out. The coaches
just really treat you like you’re at home.
I’ve been to one game, UAB last season.”
Q: Who is your
main recruiter on the Tennessee staff?
A: “Coach
Niedermeyer has been recruiting me, but Coach Tee and I talk almost every
day. We talk about personal stuff,
football stuff, school. He’s just trying
to get to know me better as a person.”
Q: What do you
make of the recent run the Vols have been on?
A: “It shows me
they’re doing a good job getting players.”
Q: Tennessee
signed Reginald Perry from Fairfield Prep just this past February. Do you know him well and what’s he told you
about Tennessee?
A:
“Yes, sir, we’re pretty close. He said
he loves it there, that’s it’s a real brotherhood, and that he loves the
coaches.”
A couple of days after we spoke, Bennett put out a Top 8 of Tennessee, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama, UAB and Louisville and Kentucky. He’s been to all of those campuses except Texas A&M, but he plans to see the Aggies as soon as the visit moratorium is up along with getting back to Tennessee, Georgia (where he’s been for a game but not a campus tour) and likely the rest again as well. With Tennessee having recently gotten a commitment from Julian Nixon, the Vols now have four pass-catchers on their commitment list, so even if the Vols weren’t a ball of fire on the recruiting trail and likely more to come spots at WR would be at a premium. Tennessee continues to try with 4-star Donte Thornton from Baltimore and Deion Colzie from Athens, GA, though both look like longshots at the moment. At the same time, the Vols remain in the mix for a solid prospect like JJ Jones from Myrtle Beach, SC and is trying to get involved with recent Florida decommitment Breshard Smith, who at 6’3 and 5’8 respectively certainly are different types of players, with Jones obviously more of a “big WR” like Tennessee already has committed in Nixon and Roc Taylor. The Vols are also very much in the mix for speedster Malcolm Johnson from VA who boasts an offer list as impressive as his track times. Bennett’s physical profile is more in between those two, and seems like a good fit with what the Vols have already brought in. Just from the amount of time he’s spent on Rocky Top and his relationship it’s easy to see that he’s got a lot of familiarity with and fondness for Tennessee. Should the Vols decide to push for him it’s clear that they would have a very good chance, although he is definitely impressed with the UGA offer and the Dawgs in particular will get a shot to impress him on a visit if they want to. At the same time, he’s not in any hurry and doesn’t seem to be swayed by all of the momentum Tennessee has right now. So, this could be a case where it’s best for both sides to let things play out and see what the landscape looks like in a few months. In the meantime, don’t be surprised to see Bennett continue to pick up more offers – potentially from the instate powers – as his film is impressive as is his off the field personality.
It’s not on our countdown, but one of the best moments for Tennessee football in a decade full of lesser options came in early 2016: Peyton Manning beat Tom Brady in the AFC Championship Game, won his second Super Bowl, and rode off into the sunset.
Manning had been Tennessee’s greatest hero for two decades. Not only did he rewrite SEC and NFL record books, he played 18 seasons at the game’s highest level. Thirteen of Tennessee’s NFL Draft picks taken during Manning’s NFL career made the Pro Bowl: Al Wilson, Jamal Lewis, Shaun Ellis, Chad Clifton, Travis Henry, John Henderson, Albert Haynesworth, Jason Witten, Scott Wells, Dustin Colquitt, Jerod Mayo, Eric Berry, and Cordarrelle Patterson. Arian Foster, a fantasy football god, makes 14.
Jamal won a Super Bowl in 2000 and was the NFL Offensive Player of the Year in 2003 (the same year Manning and Steve McNair split the MVP). Witten made 11 Pro Bowls; only 15 players (including Manning) have ever made more. Berry made five, and would’ve made more if healthy.
But no one ever came close to Manning, in accolades and in popularity among Vol fans. Some of it was the nature of playing quarterback, and the absence of any other NFL starter from Tennessee after him. Some of it was simply Manning.
By the time he retired, the Vols had been in the wilderness for seven years. No offense to Nathan Peterman – we’ll get to him in a minute, actually – but no Vol quarterback had taken meaningful snaps as a starter in the NFL since Peyton. Tee Martin, Erik Ainge, and Jonathan Crompton were all fifth round picks. Tyler Bray, once thought to have the brightest NFL future of any Vol QB since Manning, ultimately went undrafted (but has found stability and success as a backup with the Chiefs and Bears the last seven years).
For a Vol quarterback seeking this kind of long-term legacy, the shoes to fill are large, and have been largely empty since Manning. And into all that stepped a sophomore quarterback we weren’t prepared to expect much of.
#7: Josh Dobbs Ignites
Speaking of unfair expectations, Josh Dobbs’ first collegiate action came against Alabama, Missouri, and Auburn in 2013. Those three teams finished the year ranked seventh, fifth, and second. Dobbs had some excitement around him because he was clearly a different athlete than Justin Worley, who was knocked out of the Alabama game immediately following a surge of optimism against Georgia and South Carolina. And the freshman Dobbs did his best against those odds. He was unable to lead a touchdown drive against Missouri, and the points Tennessee did score against Auburn (23) were quickly overwhelmed by the Tigers’ (55).
And then came one of the first crossroad games for Butch Jones: James Franklin’s final Vanderbilt team, with the Vols at 4-6 and still alive for bowl eligibility. These Commodores would finish the season ranked, and Franklin got the job in Happy Valley. Vanderbilt earned its second win over Tennessee since 1982 the year before in Derek Dooley’s last game; that kind of loss tends not to sting as much from our perspective. But this contest carried real weight for both sides.
Dobbs threw an interception on his first pass attempt, putting the Vols in a 7-0 hole. The Vols went three-and-out on their next two drives, wasting great field position after their own interception. Marquez North was out with an injury. And Tennessee really stayed away from the pass after that.
Dobbs’ final stat line in this game is 11-of-19 (57.9%) for 53 yards (2.8 yards per attempt) with two interceptions. But it was actually even worse than that: Vanderbilt’s infamous 92-yard drive to take the lead with 16 seconds left gave the Vols a few heaves downfield. Dobbs completed two passes against prevent coverage for 14 and 23 yards in those last 16 seconds, then was incomplete on the final play of the game. So before the final drive, Dobbs was 9-of-16 (56.3%) for 16 yards. I think you can handle the YPA math on that.
Something we found ourselves saying some leading up to the 2016 season about Dobbs’ ceiling – do they trust him enough to throw it downfield enough to win? – was first a topic of conversation about his floor. When you have that kind of performance in a crucial game against any Vanderbilt team, you find your way to an assumption from the fan base: this guy isn’t the answer.
Justin Worley was back for his senior season, Riley Ferguson transferred after spring practice, and Tennessee did not sign a quarterback in its (otherwise massively successful) 2014 class. Four-stars Quinten Dormady and Sheriron Jones would come in the next year, setting the stage for competition after Worley left.
I probably led the league in word count in defending Justin Worley in the first half of the 2014 season, so no need to revisit all that. But kudos to that kid for standing back there behind the greenest of offensive lines, which eventually led to him getting knocked out for the season for the second year in a row.
By that point, the Vols had missed a critical opportunity for the second time under Butch Jones: first Vanderbilt to stay bowl eligible in 2013, then perhaps the Gators at their lowest point since we started playing them every year in 2014. Tennessee imploded in the red zone, lost 10-9, and a lot of momentum Jones had built through recruiting fell by the wayside. After a win over Chattanooga, back-to-back top five opponents from Ole Miss and Alabama compounded the problem.
Against the Tide, Nathan Peterman got the start. With a fist-pumping Lane Kiffin on the sideline, Alabama scored a touchdown on its first snap and raced to an unbelievable 27-0 lead just 18 minutes into the game. In the stadium and probably elsewhere, you felt like they might go for 100 points and 1,000 yards.
Peterman gave way to Dobbs, whose first three drives ended in two punts and a fumble. And to be sure, Bama’s defense probably relaxed up 27-0. But Dobbs worked a 10-play, 84-yard drive to get the Vols on the board, then Aaron Medley knocked home three to make it 27-10 at the break.
In between the Vol defense stopped the Tide on its opening drive of the third quarter, setting up this from Dobbs: 3rd and 7 complete to Marquez North for 22, 3rd and 2 to Ethan Wolf for 10, 3rd and 8 on his own with a brilliant 15 yard pump fake scramble, then another 3rd and goal at the 9 and another touchdown as Von Pearson hit the brakes and they flew right by.
Tennessee didn’t complete the comeback, falling 34-20 after cutting Bama’s lead to 27-17 at that point. But Dobbs erased the memories from Vanderbilt and put possibility on the table. You only had to wait a week to cash it in.
I’ve called this Tennessee’s most rewatchable game of the decade a number of times. Unlike the options from 2016 that carry mixed amounts of frustration for what that season didn’t become, this game – as an incredible team performance, insane comeback, and the genesis of Josh Dobbs as the Tennessee quarterback of the decade – is pure joy. Honestly, Tennessee’s wild comeback against Indiana in the Gator Bowl is probably underrated because this one happened just five years earlier. The after-midnight-but-hey-it’s-daylight-savings! postgame is one of my favorite things I’ve ever written.
In his next-to-last start in 2013 against Vanderbilt, Dobbs was 9-of-16 for 16 yards and two interceptions before facing the prevent defense, plus 11 carries for 23 yards.
In his first start in 2014 at South Carolina, Dobbs was 23 of 40, 301 yards (7.5 YPA), 2 TD, 1 INT. Plus 24 carries, 166 yards, 3 TD on the ground.
What kind of decade was it for Tennessee? The total unpredictability of last season is only good enough for eighth on our list of the most important football stories of the last ten years.
For now.
The version of 2019 where it doesn’t work out for Jeremy Pruitt and the Vols down the road leaves last season as an interesting anomaly, but beyond that? We talked a lot late in the year about the most impressive piece of history from 2019: the Vols covered the spread six games in a row, from Mississippi State to Missouri, for the first time since 1990. In that run, Tennessee turned 1-4 into 8-5, and earned forgiveness for losing to Georgia State. It’s an impressive feat.
But for 2019 to truly be remembered well, the Vols of the current decade have to do more than make us forget Georgia State. They have to make us remember it.
If Darrell Taylor doesn’t get drafted in the first round after my bedtime, the Vols will continue this trend:
UT First Round picks who played for Fulmer: 19 in 18 years
UT First Round picks who played after Fulmer: 3 in 10 years
(If Taylor does get drafted tonight, he’ll at least join a strong group of Cordarrelle Patterson, Ja’Wuan James, and Derek Barnett as post-Fulmer first rounders.)
If no Vols are taken in the second round, you’ll have this:
UT Second Round picks who played for Fulmer: 17 in 18 years
UT Second Round picks who played after Fulmer: Justin Hunter
(Alvin Kamara was quite the steal in round three.)
One of the best parts of last season’s finish is the way it came on the shoulders of guys who stayed. Darrell Taylor, Daniel Bituli, Nigel Warrior, and Marquez Callaway all made an enormous difference; they’ll all get a phone call at some point this weekend, be it the draft or free agency. And of course, Jauan Jennings was building on an already memorable legacy.
Tennessee didn’t beat any ranked teams in their late season run. But they also weren’t sending the kind of talent that regularly beats ranked teams to the NFL this season. Before the turnaround, all of us spent time lamenting the fact that, “Just play the young guys!” wasn’t necessarily an option the Vols weren’t already exploring. This team was what it was after losing to Georgia State and BYU. This program was what it was after the last 10+ years.
But they found a way anyway.
I want only good things for those five seniors, this weekend and in the years to come. The truth is, their Tennessee legacy is now out of their hands.
If 2019 stands alone, it’s a really interesting story. But if it becomes the first chapter?
Of the most important stories of the last decade, it’s only number eight for now. But if Pruitt and the Vols get things right to start this decade, 2019 will become one of the best and most important stories of the 2010’s.
My wife and I got married in August of 2013. When we came back from our honeymoon, the first question everyone asked was, of course, “What do you think of the new uniforms?”
Unlike Lane Kiffin’s last minute switcheroo with the black uniforms, Tennessee fans got almost two months of build-up for the smokey grays. My informal opinion is most fans went on to prefer the Nike version with its truly unique helmet, as opposed to the adidas version that eventually showed up at just about every other school they had under contract. The black unis were a hit because, in large part, the Vols played so well in them, even those who really hated the idea couldn’t be so loud about it. I’ve joked before that in my eight years of writing at Rocky Top Talk, the only comment my dad ever left on a post was to express his disdain for the black unis.
Uniforms are serious, polarizing business. As we speak, it feels like Nike is intentionally screwing up NFL uniforms just to make more money when they bring back the old look a couple years later. I’m a fan of clean, unique looks. It’s one of the great things about Tennessee: our orange is immediately distinguishable, as are our checkerboards even when Kentucky tries to steal them. The memories of the Butch Jones era aren’t always fond, but those first Nike unis with the checkerboard stripe down the side of the pants and the back of the helmet? I love those. It keeps everything great about Tennessee’s traditional look, and adds a slight touch to make them even more uniquely ours. If you have an iconic franchise, there’s no reason they should ever wear something like this:
Apparently the new Celtics “City” uniforms leaked. If true, burn these immediately and cancel the days they were supposed to be worn. These are awful. pic.twitter.com/UAykbilHPo
The initial reaction to the smokey grays seemed somewhere in the middle – a big change for an iconic brand. But in the weeks (and years) ahead, man, they sold. Not just the jerseys, but lots of gray merchandise. I still have a lot of it; it’s helpful when you’re trying to be loud, but not too loud, in hostile territory.
Year one for Butch Jones started off okay: the Vols beat Austin Peay in the opener, then rode an enormous wave of turnovers to blow by Western Kentucky 52-20. Then the Vols were Marcus Mariotaed at Oregon, and Nathan Petermaned themselves at Florida. A 31-24 survival of South Alabama didn’t warm any fuzzies.
Georgia came to Knoxville ranked sixth. The year before, they came as close to disrupting Alabama’s dynasty without actually doing it as anyone, a feat only topped by themselves a few years later. In 2013 they lost a 38-35 thriller at Clemson in the opener, then rebounded with a 41-30 win over South Carolina. The week before Knoxville, they beat LSU 44-41. These dudes were tested, and the Aaron Murray, Todd Gurley, Malcolm Mitchell offense was lighting it up. The Dawgs opened as 10.5-point favorites and it swelled to 13.5 by kickoff.
My wife comes from a huge baseball family, heavily familiar with the sports DNA. But she was newer to football. And getting married three weeks before the first game of the Butch Jones era, I was nervous. It’s a question many of us have asked at some point in the last decade: will the Vols be good enough in time for this person I love to become attached to them?
Georgia scored 10 points on their first two drives. The Vols got a field goal early in the second quarter, but the Dawgs immediately answered with a touchdown. It was 17-3 at halftime, and the Vols had punted four times, plus a three-and-out to open the third quarter.
And then Georgia missed a 39-yard field goal with nine minutes left in the third quarter.
I don’t know how many fans do the two-possessions math, but it’s enough to make a difference. The Vols hadn’t moved the ball all day, but we were still in it with #6 Georgia. And when that happens, all it takes is one play.
The spark, as it turned out, came from Pig Howard. We all know where this game is headed, but before that, Howard caught a 33-yard pass from Justin Worley to get the Vols to the Georgia 40 yard line. Worley ran for 11, then Howard ran for 10. And then, on 3rd-and-10:
The Vols got a stop, but couldn’t capitalize. But Michael Palardy, doing double duty, bombed a 57-yard punt to back the Dawgs up. Tennessee’s defense earned a three-and-out.
There’s a list of great Neyland Stadium moments that happened in a loss. Everything until the end zone interception in the final minutes against #1 Notre Dame in 1990. The screen pass to Travis Stephens pre-hobnail. Cedric Houston almost going the distance right away against #1 Miami in 2002. Everything before the flash flood against Oregon in 2010. That first interception against Oklahoma in 2015.
This is definitely on that list:
Before he was the guy making three dozen tackles in big games, Jalen Reeves-Maybin was the guy who blocked this punt. Devaun Swafford gets the score, I believe it’s Geraldo Orta who gets the decleater at the goal line. And Neyland and the Vols are fully alive.
What’s truly amazing about this game is that everything left to happen all transpired in the last minute of the third quarter, the fourth, and the overtime. Aaron Murray ran for 57 yards on the last play of the third, Georgia scored on the first play of the fourth, and maybe it’s over. But nope: Rajion Neal busts one on 4th-and-1 for 43 yards, then finishes off the drive, and we’re tied again. The Vols get a stop, and two epic drives unfold. Tennessee goes 80 yards in 13 plays, converting two 4th-and-1’s and a 3rd-and-10. Neal scores again from seven yards out, and the Vols have their first lead of the day, 31-24, with 1:54 to go. Rajion on the day gets 148 yards on 28 carries.
Aaron Murray, to his absolute credit, refuses to be denied. Ten plays, 75 yards, no timeouts, three third down conversions, including a two yard pass with five seconds left to send it to overtime.
You know how it ends. But this one was a great example of what can be in a coach’s first year, even when you don’t win. Butch Jones was already off and running on the recruiting trail. But this one made people believe, including my wife. It’s a great testimony to what Neyland can be, even when we don’t win.
The Vols had to sit with it through the bye week. South Carolina, ranked 11th, was next. Tennessee didn’t play as well as they did against Georgia.
But Marquez North and Michael Palardy found a way.
If you forgot, and I bet you haven’t, Derek Dooley never beat a ranked team in three years. When Butch Jones almost got #6 Georgia, then beat #11 South Carolina?
Here’s one of the pictures that’s changed the most over time:
Butch Jones and Vols AD Dave Hitman Hart chest-bumping after win over South Carolina: pic.twitter.com/5bPgJMWRr2
When it happens, you think it’s the first of many. Turns out, it might’ve been the best win in all of Jones’ tenure. His teams went on to beat #19 Georgia, #12 Northwestern, #19 Florida, #25 Georgia, and #24 Nebraska. None were ranked higher on gameday than #11 South Carolina here. Among teams ranked in the final AP poll, Jones’ Vols beat #24 Northwestern in 2015, and #14 Florida and #16 Virginia Tech in 2016. None finished the year better than South Carolina in 2013 at #4.
You just never know. We thought Marquez North would be a star for years to come, but this became his finest hour. These two games over three weeks felt like the beginning, like they should’ve earned a much higher place than #9 on our list of the most important stories of the decade. They’re still a terrific example of what can be powerful, in a coach’s first year and in Neyland at all times. But they’ve become the first example of what came to haunt Jones’ tenure: great moments that didn’t ultimately last because they didn’t turn into great seasons.
Greetings from the Gameday on Rocky Top bunker, where I have been distancing myself from all manner of unpleasantries. I’d like to thank John Unspellable (apologies to Spencer Hall for stealing his joke for like the fourth time — it works for all Eastern European and Polynesian names and never gets old!) . . . thanks to John K. for entertaining me during this unique period in our history.
It’s a good time to be a health care lawyer with reliable internet, but you might say that it’s kind of a bad time for most everything else. There are more important things than football, right?
But you know what? There are few more important unimportant things than football. By the way, I have been up to my nostrils in football stats, coaching changes, and various and sundry football minutiae and have been typing incessantly for like 48 hours straight, sustaining on air-fried french fries and chicken salad. So really, I’m not responsible for anything I say here.
Where was I? Oh, yes. Footbaw. The question on everyone’s mind right now — just behind “This is probably just allergies, right?” — is this: “When are we going to get back to business?”
“Business,” as it concerns me wearing this hat and you reading this post, translates to questions about whether and when we are going to publish our Gameday on Rocky Top magazine. Allow me to quote Fiddler on the Roof to answer that question: “I’ll tell you. I don’t know.”
But here’s the other thing. Does publishing a preseason football magazine even depend on whether there’s a football season? And if so, how much? We’ve said in this space and at the other place many times that football is almost as much about anticipation as it is actually watching the games. So, as long as I have hope that there will be a season, I am interested in football.
But . . . if someday soon somebody in a suit and tie trots out to a podium and says, “No football for you,” well then, spending tens of thousands of dollars to print thousands of copies of a publication that depends on anticipation of a thing that’s definitely not going to happen is probably not in the Harvard Manual of Prudent Business Decisions. Woo for run-on sentences.
But here’s the other, other thing. Suppose that dude in the tie steps up to the podium in June, clears his throat, and exclaims, “GEAUX TIGAHS!” If that happens, we’re going to want a preseason football magazine, stat, y’all. But if I wait until June to get started, it will be too late.
Thus my current state of drowning in football stats, coaching changes, and fingers on auto-pilot fueled by fake fried food saying things without my mind’s consent. We’ve been writing anyway, so we might as well use it, is what I’m saying.
So, the “whether” is pretty easy. That’d be a “yes.”
But “when” and “how” we will publish is still TBD. We’ll let you know when we know. If you have opinions on it, leave said opinion in the comments below and the next time I surface to shower, I’ll check in.
For now, I’m just going to leave you with some random impressions that are rattling around in my troubled mind after a marathon writing session today:
This is the year Will Muschamp gets fired by his schedule.
Somebody needs to institute a transfer season so there’s a finish line of some sort. I’m all for players transferring; I just wish they wouldn’t do it while I’m in the middle of a sentence.
So let me get this straight: Ole Miss fired Hugh Freeze because of a scandal, gave Matt Luke three years to rehab the program’s reputation, and is now tossing the keys to Lane Kiffin? Okay, then.
Eliah Drinkwitz is going to stab somebody in the heart while they’re looking up his name.
The bat cooties have screwed everybody, but especially programs with new coaches.
Georgia’s defense was even better than you thought last year. Its offense was even worse. They really started to miss Jim Chaney a few games in, and this year they’re going to miss Sam Pittman and Jake Fromm and their offensive line, and they draw Alabama from the West. Meanwhile, Florida’s getting better. Therefore: Florida over Georgia for the East this year? I think I just talked myself into it. Discuss.
LSU was about as awesome as awesome gets last year. But hoo-boy, a lot of that awesome might well be long gone. It’s not just Burrow; they return less production than anyone in the league. The OL loses 57 of 75 starts! And how much of Burrow was actually Brady? He’s gone, too, and so is the defensive coordinator. They could lose five games. Or they could run the table because of talent and Red Bull. Geaux Tigahs!
With anxiety over Georgia and LSU, is this Alabama’s to win again? I hate those guys. But . . .
. . . Texas A&M is sneaking up on the West. I may give it to them.
Auburn can beat anybody this week and lose to themselves next week.
For like the fourth year in a row, we’re going to be asking this question about halfway through the season, “Wait. When did Kentucky get good?”
Sam Pittman and Kendal Briles in charge of the offense with Barry Odom leading the defense? Huh. That could actually work.
When was the last time Alabama didn’t have to replace either of its coordinators?
Mike Leach didn’t even bother hiring an offensive coordinator.
With the news that former 5-star QB JT Daniels has entered the transfer portal, followed by the report from 247 Sports analyst that “Tennessee is among the teams to watch,” all of a sudden there is some real intrigue with a QB position the battle for which seemed to lose a little steam with incoming 5-star freshman Harrison Bailey not getting to participate in spring practice due to COVID-19.
The possibility does not come without its concerns. Among them, would it cause any of the existing
QBs on the roster to leave? Well, even
without the possibility of Daniels joining the program, Tennessee seems likely
to lose at least one of JT Shrout and Brian Maurer either before or during the
2020 season. That would leave the 2020
team with only Jarrett Guarantano, Harrison Bailey, Jimmy Holiday, and whoever
of Shrout/Maurer is still around – a talented but very inexperienced bunch behind
the much-maligned and tough-but-injury prone Guarantano. And after 2020 Guarantano will be gone,
leaving the position potentially even thinner.
So unless Daniels would cause Bailey, a five-star himself and the jewel
of the 2020 class, to leave, any potential loss of personnel would likely be
more than negated by Daniels himself.
As for the 2020 team itself, adding Daniels to the mix would
be the ultimate “cream rises to the top” moment for Tennessee’s QB room and
ultimately vastly raise the ceiling of the 2020 team. There are three likely scenarios that could
play out: 1) Daniels, a Top 20 overall player in the 2018 class despite
effectively playing up a year, who started at USC as a true freshman before
missing all but the first half of the first game of 2019, wins the job. That means he’s beaten out the 5th
year senior in Guarantano, a ballyhooed freshman in Bailey, and the rest of the
QBs on the roster, showing the kind of talent that made him that sort of
superstar prospect, 2) Guarantano wins the job. That means that he – a 5th year
senior in his first season with the same offensive coordinator as the season
before – has beaten out Daniels, Bailey, and the rest, or 3) Bailey wins the
job, which means his talent is just so damn good, and his grasp of the
offensive system so damn advanced, that he’s beaten out Daniels, Guarantano,
and the rest. In either scenario, iron
has sharpened iron and the Vols will have the best QB they can possibly have
leading what should easily be Coach Jeremy Pruitt’s best team in his three-year
tenure. As an aside, any of those would
still leave the option of redshirting Maurer, a QB with a lot of potential who
would be great to keep in the program.
The next concern is the possibility that Daniels’ presence on
the roster turns off high school QBs in the 2021 and 2022 classes. As far as 2021 is concerned, the Vols are
realistically in on only one QB at the moment in Top 100 prospect Kaidon Salter. And while Salter is potentially a very, very good
QB, not only is he not yet committed to Tennessee in the first place but he’s
also simply not the prospect Daniels is.
2022 is another issue when it comes to the potential for Tennessee to
add an elite QB in the class. Between
instate stud Ty Simpson and legacies Braden Davis and Kaden Martin – all three
of whom are high level prospects with elite offers – as well as 4-star MJ
Morris who has been to Knoxville multiple times – the Vols are frankly in the
best position to land an elite QB in the class in recent and maybe even not so
recent memory. That said, are guys who
would at most overlap with Daniels for one season going to be scared off by his
presence? And to be honest, is Daniels
likely to still be on the roster in 2022?
One would think that his goal is to spend at most two seasons somewhere –
throwing for a ton of yards and winning a ton of games – before bouncing for
the NFL. And if that hasn’t happened
maybe he’s simply not the prospect he’s cracked up to be.
Finally, there is the fact that right now Tennessee is a few
scholarships over the 85-limit. To that I
say…so.freaking.what. That’s what Pruitt
gets paid upwards of $5-6 million dollars a year to figure out. As good of a job as he’s done creating a
roster that is an SEC East dark horse even without Daniels in 2020, there are
still players who just don’t belong on an SEC roster. And like the great Brent Hubbs of Volquest always says (usually about a
recruiting class, but still), the numbers always work themselves out.
The bottom line is that Quarterback is the most important position in football, and if you have the opportunity to add a truly elite talent to your roster you do it and figure the rest out later. Should all of the above concerns be given consideration? Sure. But other than Bailey transferring – which is hard to see happening but certainly not impossible – none of them supersede what adding Daniels could do for the 2020 team and for the program overall.
