Category Archives: Football

I know, I’m surprised I haven’t caught the virus too!

But you know, they got me for trespassing at Bridgestone Arena back when all this went down. I drove down because I knew Big John Fulkerson and all them were winnin’ that SEC Tournament, no doubt about it. And when they told me it’d been cancelled, I figured it was some kinda conspiracy from ol’ John Calipari to keep them from losing to us again, so I refused to leave the premises. So that, combined with unpaid gambling debts from last year and being picked up naked outside Neyland Stadium the day we switched to Nike…well, that’s three strikes, boys.

But hey, turns out you don’t really go to jail for that stuff in coronavirus times, so now I got me one of these (motions to ankle monitor with Power T in pantone 151 duct tape). My wife cried when she found out I’d be on house arrest, though I’m still unclear if they were tears of joy.

We don’t leave the house, so I don’t need a mask, but I made one with Jauan Jennings catching that football in Georgia on it just because. Sometimes I just wear it around the house to make myself feel better. My therapist says it’s the last time I was truly happy.

She also says I should just be happy to have football this fall, and maybe she’s right. I mean, all my happiness last fall went away so fast, it was one of the most confusing times of my life, I won’t lie to you boys. When we started 0-2 after the end of that BYU game, I started reading the Mormon literature. I stuck with it until Guarantano fumbled at the goal line at Alabama, which is when I knew I must’ve had it wrong. But then, we started winning! So now I’m a little unsure which church I should attend when all this is over, but surely the time of God’s testing has passed! The Vols are back! Phillip said so himself!

He also sent out a letter asking us to send our ticket money to the university even if we don’t get seats this fall, because they could use our help. I tried to find a place to reply in the comments that I’d gladly send that and an advance on next year’s seats as soon as I have it, but my wife changed all my passwords. She’s a smart one. I figure if I just keep asking her to log in to Volquest every 15 minutes she’ll break eventually.

But you know, the program is hurting financially. Everywhere is. I saw Texas is going to have sponsors for each one of their games, which seems like a great idea to raise funds without having to put a Pilot Flying J on General Neyland’s face or whatever. So I’ve got it all figured out:

• Tennessee vs Missouri, presented by the Town of Blacksburg. Blacksburg: if the alternative is Columbia, Missouri, I promise you’d rather play here every other year.
• Tennessee vs Kentucky, presented by Back to the Future 35^th Anniversary Edition. Celebrate 35 years of protecting the timeline and Kentucky losing in Knoxville!
• Tennessee vs Alabama, presented by the SEC League Office in Birmingham. You already know how this one’s going to go down; that’s why we’ve gotta find the right church, boys, because only the power of prayer can stop those referees. Also brought to you by: Butch Jones. Butch Jones: he’s getting paid either way!
• Tennessee vs Texas A&M, presented by The Estate of David By God Crockett. You’re welcome.
• Tennessee vs Florida, presented by Top Gun: Maverick Iceman. The plaque for the alternates is down in the ladies room. Ain’t no way we lose to these guys in December.

(Author’s note: The Idiot Optimist tips his hat to this line from Pat Forde’s 2002 story on Casey Clausen: “Many Tennesseans still have more affection for Peyton Manning than for their own children.” Sounds about right.)

I mean look, if they want to have every game sponsored by Weigel’s, that’s okay with me too. Anything to help the program. But I figure we’re going to make all the money we need when we run the table this fall.

They said we couldn’t have played this past Saturday because we had too many kids in quarantine. But really, how many guys do we need to beat South Carolina? If that o-line is healthy, we need those five and Eric Gray. Maybe throw in Austin Pope as an extra blocker. If we have seven offense players, I say let’s kick it off and see what happens.

We get Georgia while they’re still figuring out their quarterback situation, which as long as it’s not Justin Fields should be fine. Though truly, I think Justin Fields would have a better chance at immediate eligibility at Georgia than Cade Mays does at Tennessee. They gave us Auburn and Texas A&M as a bonus, but hey, Jeremy’s got Gus’s number and, knowing Auburn, they’ll probably want to fire him by November anyway. Texas A&M is an overdue chance for revenge, the first moment that happiness was taken away four years ago. It’s all coming back around, boys. I mean, you go through a ten game schedule in this league, plus Atlanta, does it really matter who else is in the College Football Playoff? Maybe they’ll let Memphis in there this year, that’d be adorable. A national champion from the SEC would finish 13-0 this year. Feels like 98!

I will be grateful for football. I will be grateful for football. I will be grateful for football.

And I will be most grateful for that (Fulmerzied) whipping we’re ‘bout to put on everybody.

What’s the one place where improvement would be most meaningful for Tennessee in 2020? Without question, it’s scoring touchdowns in the red zone.

Last season the Vols made 47 trips inside the 20, but came away with six just 23 times. That’s 48.94%, good for 112th nationally, and of course means the Vols scored a touchdown on less than half of their red zone visits. That’s very bad. Take away Chattanooga and UAB, and the Vols went 17-of-38 (44.7%). That’s even worse.

In 2018, the Vols actually did a pretty good job in the red zone: 34 visits obviously wasn’t ideal, but 22 touchdowns was good for a 64.71% TD percentage, 48th nationally. Larry Scott’s 2017 group went 19-of-35 for 54.29%, painfully flaming out at Florida (0-for-3) after starting the season with eight touchdowns in nine visits, including 5-for-5 must-haves against Georgia Tech. And in 2016, the high-powered Vol offense was one of the best in the nation with 36-of-49 (73.47%), 11th nationally…making it all the more puzzling when they went 2-of-5 against Vanderbilt.

More importantly, here’s what Jim Chaney has done (data from SportSource Analytics):

Jim Chaney in the Red Zone

Year	Team	Red Zone	TD	%	Rank
2010	Tennessee	40	20	50%	105
2011	Tennessee	38	24	63.20%	44
2012	Tennessee	59	36	61.02%	63
2013	Arkansas	38	23	60.53%	72
2014	Arkansas	56	36	64.29%	48
2015	Pittsburgh	48	30	62.50%	53
2016	Georgia	45	25	55.56%	100
2017	Georgia	55	39	70.91%	18
2018	Georgia	60	40	66.67%	35
2019	Tennessee	47	23	48.94%	112

In the good news department: not only is last season at Tennessee his worst performance, all of his teams got better from year one to year two in his system. Before Tyler Bray’s injury in 2011, the Vols scored touchdowns on 16-of-22 appearances (72.7%) in the first four games, including 5-of-6 against Cincinnati.

It’s always the ones you don’t get that stand out, of course. After a spectacular year in the red zone in 2017, the Dawgs were solid in 2018 but went 1-for-3 in the loss to LSU. And for Tennessee last year, as you’ll see, it’s what could’ve been that stands out.

Again, I don’t think beating Georgia State and/or BYU would’ve changed Tennessee’s postseason destiny last year; I think 9-3 Tennessee is still playing Indiana in the Gator Bowl the way the conference shook out, so maybe you take the lessons instead. But the Vols, of course, settled for a pair of field goals in the middle portion of the Georgia State game. And against BYU (and Mississippi State, and Indiana), Tennessee failed to jump on a team early, missing a pair of chances for a two-possession lead on the Cougars.

One outlier stat: Tennessee threw four interceptions in the red zone last year, most in the nation. But two of those were from Brian Maurer in the Mississippi State game, when he may or may not have had a concussion. A third was a ball Jauan Jennings caught just about every other time in his career in the Florida game. I’m not overly worried about Guarantano throwing picks in the end zone. But we also know he can’t go to #15 and #1 anymore. Jennings was fifth nationally with 118 yards in the red zone last year, his seven touchdowns tied for tenth, and he had eight other catches for a first down, fourth nationally. So figuring out who that guy is for Guarantano is job number one.

Two years ago Tennessee was one of the worst short yardage rushing teams in the nation. Now the Vols should have the horses, up front and in the backfield, to be a terror there. So perhaps an answer to all this is just line up and go right at them, and leave less up to the passing game inside the 20. The Vols don’t necessarily have to be spectacular here; even an average red zone performance last year likely makes the difference in two outcomes. But finding out who Guarantano can look for inside the 20 – and on third down, where Jennings was also one of the nation’s best – could be the biggest key to Tennessee’s red zone success in 2020.

Every 2019 Red Zone series

(via ESPN play-by-play data)

Georgia State – Four appearances, two touchdowns:

• 1Q GSU 7-0: Touchdown
• 2Q Tied 14-14: FG as half expires; from 2nd-&-Goal at the 3, Vols went incomplete, interception overturned by pass interference, incomplete, FG
• Early 4Q GSU 21-20: FG to take the lead; pass complete to Austin Pope for no gain on 3rd-and-2 at the 14
• Late 4Q GSU 38-23: Touchdown pass with two seconds left

BYU – Four appearances, two touchdowns:

• 1Q 0-0: Touchdown (Jennings bobbled catch), went for it on 4th-and-3 at the 5
• 2Q Vols 7-3: Turnover on downs, Eric Gray stopped on 4th-and-1 at the 19
• Early 4Q Vols 13-10: FG; 1st-and-Goal at the 9 led to run for zero, Guarantano run for 4, incomplete
• OT1 BYU 23-16: Touchdown, Guarantano to Jennings on 3rd-and-10 at the 13

Chattanooga – Four appearances, three touchdowns:

• 1Q 0-0: Touchdown
• 1Q 14-0: Touchdown
• 2Q 35-0: FG (J.T. Shrout drive)
• 3Q 38-0: Touchdown (Brian Maurer drive)

Florida – Two appearances, zero touchdowns:

• 1Q 7-0 FLA: Interception in the end zone (bobbled by Jennings)
• 3Q 17-0 FLA: FG (Brian Maurer drive)

Georgia – Two appearances, one touchdown:

• 2Q 10-7 UGA: Touchdown (Maurer to Jennings)
• Late 4Q 43-14 UGA: Turnover on downs, Guarantano four straight incompletions from the five yard line

Mississippi State – Four appearances, one touchdown:

• 1Q 0-0: Interception in the end zone (Maurer)
• 1Q 0-0: Touchdown, Tim Jordan 15-yard run
• 2Q 7-3 Vols: Interception in the end zone (Maurer)
• 3Q 10-3 Vols: FG, Guarantano drive, three Tim Jordan runs for eight yards from 1st-and-10 at the 13

Alabama – Four appearances, one touchdown:

• 1Q 7-0 Bama: Touchdown (Maurer two yard run)
• 2Q 14-7 Bama: FG (Maurer injured this drive); Vols had 1st-and-Goal at the 5 and went false start, no gain, holding, two incomplete passes
• 3Q 21-10 Bama: FG; holding on 1st-and-Goal at the 7
• 4Q 28-13 Bama: COVER YOUR EYES! Fumble returned for TD on Guarantano sneak; Vols had 1st-and-Goal at the 2 but couldn’t get in on three previous runs

South Carolina – Three appearances, one touchdown:

• 2Q 7-3 USC: Turnover on downs, 3rd-and-Goal at the 1 led to no gain, incomplete. 17 play drive, no points, but ensuing punt was returned for a TD
• 3Q 21-17 USC: Touchdown, Jennings back-of-end-zone incredible catch, Guarantano hurt
• Early 4Q 31-21 Vols: FG

UAB – Five appearances, three touchdowns:

• 1Q 0-0: FG (UAB intercepted on first play, Vols from the 19 went one yard, no gain, incomplete with Shrout playing QB)
• 1Q 3-0 Vols: Touchdown
• 2Q 16-0 Vols: Touchdown
• 2Q 23-0 Vols: Interception in the end zone (Guarantano)
• 3Q 23-0 Vols: Touchdown

Kentucky – Three appearances, two touchdowns:

• 2Q 13-0 UK: FG (Maurer)
• 3Q 13-3 UK: Touchdown (Guarantano)
• 3Q 13-10 UK: Touchdown (Guarantano)

Missouri – Five appearances, three touchdowns:

• 1Q 3-0 MIZ: Missed FG
• 2Q 3-0 MIZ: Touchdown
• 2Q 10-7 MIZ: Touchdown
• 2Q 14-10 Vols: FG as half expires
• 3Q 17-17: Touchdown

Vanderbilt – Two appearances, two touchdowns:

• 2Q 7-3 Vols: Touchdown
• Mid 4Q 21-10 Vols: Touchdown

Indiana – Five appearances, two touchdowns:

• 1Q 0-0: Turnover on downs, incomplete on 4th-and-Goal from the 2
• 2Q 0-0: FG
• 2Q 3-0 Vols: FG
• Late 4Q 22-9 IU: Touchdown
• Late 4Q 22-16 IU: Touchdown

Week 2 of the Wonky 2020 college football season provides our first look at a few Top 25 teams. Hello, Notre Dame in the ACC! Hello, No. 1 Clemson!

First up is this week’s college football TV schedule curated just for Vols fans, meaning we’ve culled out a bit of the noise. Because Tennessee’s playing a conference-only schedule this fall and because SEC games don’t start for another couple of weeks, “curated for Vols fans” is going to mean something a little different for a bit. Hang on, we’ll get there. (We hope!)

Thursday, September 10, 2020

Hey, look. It’s the Power 5.

Gameday, September 12, 2020

Still kinda slim pickin’s here, but we get our first look at some Top 25 teams.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

As we said in the 2020 college football TV schedule post Wednesday, beginning slowly means there’s only a handful of games this week. Our picks this year come with a major caveat, especially this week, namely that there’s a new villain in town. The Unknowable threatens to wreak havoc over all attempts to predict anything in this crazy season.

Why do we do this?

Even though we’re using Vegas spreads and other gamblingy words, our primary purpose in discussing such things and making predictions isn’t to help you lose less of your hard-earned money by making smarter wagers, it’s to hopefully enhance the entertainment value of the season by making us all better-informed fans. As it turns out, the folks in Vegas have a proven track record of knowing their stuff when it comes to these things, which makes sense for folks actually putting real money where their collective mouths are.

So like it or not, Vegas is the standard, and whether we know what we’re talking about is best measured by comparing our predictions to theirs and others who are also trying to outsmart them. If you can do so more than half the time, you’re doing pretty well.

Bottom line, we’re just hoping to help you sound smart when talking with your friends Friday afternoons before Gamedays. And if you also win your office pool, well, gravy’s good.

Final GRT SPM results for 2019

So, how’d the old GRT Statsy Preview Machine do last year? You may recall that last year we tracked three sets of data: (1) all FBS-vs-FBS games (“FBS games”), (2) those games that were also above a certain confidence level; and (3) those FBS games that were also within a certain confidence range. How do we determine confidence? The SPM spits out a projected spread for each game, and the further this number is from the Vegas opening spread, the higher the level of confidence. To be in category 2, the confidence level must be over 9, and to be in category 3, the confidence level must be between 9 and 14.

For all FBS games last season, the SPM was 382-373 (50.60%). For the ones in category 2, it was 147-119 (55.26%), and in the sweet spot that is category 3, it was 87-54 (61.70%).

Conclusions:

• Category 1: Strong opinions about these games too often taste like crow.
• Category 2: Opinions about these are a little safer, but it is not advised to get too cocky about them.
• Category 3: If you’re going to beat your chest about any of the week’s games, do it about these. This is especially true if another predictive system like Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes any of the same games. Just remember, that even on the best days, you’re likely to be wrong four out of 10 times.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 1 Picks

With another word of warning about The Unknowable, here are the Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 1 of the 2020 college football season:

Of those, BYU-Navy is the only Category 3 game.

How are y’all feeling about those?

With all of the sharks and other critters trespassing into our space, we’re not diving head first into the deep end to kick off the 2020 college football season. No, no, no. This Year That Will Live in Infamy calls for a cautious dipping-of-the-toes into the shallows to see whether we can actually retrieve all of them afterwards.

So yeah, there is actual live FBS football this week. It’s just that we’re going to have to bide our time with nachos and bread until the server gets here. Funny how nachos and bread tastes like manna when you’re famished.

We usually post an abbreviated schedule curated just for Vols fans first, and because tradition matters ’round these parts, we’re doing that again today, although what matters to Vols fans this week is really not much different than what matters to everyone else. If it’s live FBS football, we’re watching.

Thursday, September 3, 2020

This one at least involves an opponent with whom we have some recent familiarity, as we beat the Blazers 30-7 a lifetime ago last fall. So, we’re rooting for them to look good.

Gameday, September 5, 2020

Hmm. Well, it’s football, and it’s football the live long day. Who’s up for finding out whether we can actually get full on peanuts?

Monday, September 7, 2020

And here we are with what will likely be an actual good game in which we have a fair degree of rooting interest. You’ll no doubt recall the Vols’ super-fun loss to BYU in the second game of the season last year, and Navy was sneaking up on people all year long last season. I’m rooting for BYU in this one despite the faint lingerings of a massive grudge.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

The answer may surprise you!

When we get excited about the 2020 Vols, the conversation usually centers on the offensive line, or the individual breakout potential of sophomores Eric Gray and Henry To’o To’o. But one of our favorite big picture metrics heavily favors the Tennessee defense.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings got a Week 1 update at ESPN.com this week. Tennessee checks in at 19th, with the usual caveat of, “Yeah, but we play five of the Top 11.” The biggest takeaway in the new ratings to me: while Tennessee’s offense is a pedestrian 50th overall, the defense is sixth. Not in the SEC. In the nation. With all 130 teams accounted for.

(A quick reality check here: Georgia is first at 6.8, miles ahead of #2 Oregon at 12.1. So any conversation on, “Does Tennessee have one of college football’s best defenses,” would start with, “After Georgia, of course.”)

It feels like the Vols lost their most productive player in getting to the quarterback (Darrell Taylor), in setting up the defense (Daniel Bituli), and in the secondary (Nigel Warrior). But the strength of Tennessee’s 2019 defense (which finished 19th in SP+) was less about individual accolades – with one notable exception – and more about the basic building blocks the 2020 defense could replicate:

• No big plays. The 2019 Vols finished first in the nation in 30+ yard plays allowed and first in 30+ passing plays allowed (data via SportSource Analytics). Last year Tennessee allowed just 10 plays of 30+ yards. By comparison, in 2016 the Vols allowed 37 plays of 30+ yards.
• Interceptions. Nigel Warrior led the way with four, but Bryce Thompson added three and seven other Vols got one as well. Fifteen interceptions last season was good for 13th nationally, the most for Tennessee since 2014.
• Solid finish all around. In the 2-5 start, Tennessee allowed 5.44 yards per play. In the 6-0 finish, Tennessee allowed 4.51 yards per play, with none of the victims in that streak getting more than five yards per play against the Vol defense.

Even without Taylor, Bituli, and Warrior, can the 2020 Vols follow that same blueprint? The biggest question to answer: who gets to the quarterback? Darrell Taylor had 8.5 of Tennessee’s 34 sacks, also their highest total since 2014. The Vols seem unlikely to put a pass rusher in the first two rounds of the 2021 NFL Draft. Can a committee replace some/all of that production?

On the other hand, there’s also room for improvement. Tennessee was average on third down last year, allowing a conversion on 39.34% of opponent attempts, 68th nationally. A year ago yesterday, Georgia State went 10-of-17 on third down against the Vols. Alabama went 6-of-10 in Tuscaloosa before we even throw in the referees; Georgia was 5-of-11. But again in the winning streak, Tennessee made significant strides: South Carolina went 4-of-18, Missouri 4-of-15, Indiana 4-of-13. There’s a whole chunk here about the quality of offense the Vols faced in that winning streak. But if we’re finding nice things to say about the new SEC schedule, outside of Alabama the Vols won’t face anything like the Oklahoma offense we lost.

If Jeremy Pruitt, Derrick Ansley, and the defensive staff continue to get improvement from the returning pieces, the Vols could keep doing those building blocks well while finding critical improvement on third down. The sack totals will probably come down without Darrell Taylor, but the defense overall could still be noticeably better in 2020. Be great again at taking away explosive plays, create turnovers in similar fashion, and improve on third down? That’s the makings of a great defense.

We don’t often outright credit the defense for individual wins at the end of last year, not beyond a goal line stop at Kentucky that probably doesn’t get enough praise. And maybe enough upperclassman star power was lost to not make us think of it as a unit that can go out there and win games by itself. But if we’re looking for realistic versions of how the Vols make significant progress in 2020? A defense that leads the way might be more of a factor than we’re giving it credit for.

Historical poll data will become meaningless in week two, with no Big Ten and Pac-12 teams around to fill out the nation’s best 25 teams in a given week. Take them out of the preseason AP poll today, and the Vols would be 16th. But whatever perception is worth, we get one look at Tennessee compared to the rest of the nation, and the Vols grabbed the last spot in this year’s initial AP poll at #25.

This is year three for Jeremy Pruitt. In the preseason poll before Derek Dooley’s third year, the Vols were also receiving votes at 33rd. Tennessee moved into the poll at #23 after a 2-0 start, then lost to Florida. It was the only appearance in three years for Dooley’s Vols. (Poll data from College Poll Archive)

In the preseason poll before Butch Jones’ third year, the Vols were, you guessed it, 25th. They moved up to #23 with the win over Bowling Green, fell out after losing to Oklahoma, and only reappeared in the season finale, finishing #22 after throttling Northwestern in the Outback Bowl.

For Tennessee’s last three coaching staffs, the outset of year three is when the college football world gives you just enough benefit of the doubt to slide in the poll, then asks you to prove it. Dooley, Butch, and Pruitt never flirted with the Top 25 in years one or two; the Vols finished 34th in votes received after beating Indiana in the Gator Bowl last year. Dooley’s Vols were 34th after beating Jones and Cincinnati in week two of the 2011 season, but lost to Florida and never got close again that year due to injury. So each of Tennessee’s last three coaches has come to this moment in more or less the same spot: we think you might have it in you, but now you have to prove it.

When it was clear Butch Jones was on his way out, we talked about how we might measure progress between rebuilding and championships the next time around. One good metric: longevity in the polls, which is probably worth more than where you finish the season when it comes to relevance. That was the case in 2015, when the Vols were clearly competitive with championship-caliber teams, but because they lost those games by the thinnest of margins, never got back into the Top 25 until the very end.

There’s plenty of good historical context in the post linked above from 2017, but in short:

From Tennessee’s return to the Top 25 in September 1989 through the end of the Fulmer Era in 2008, it’s easier for me to tell you when Tennessee wasn’t ranked:

• October-November in 1994, playing freshman Peyton Manning at quarterback. The Vols finished #24 in the final poll after beating Virginia Tech in the Gator Bowl.
• Mid-October through early November in 2000 after a 2-3 start in a rebuilding year. The loss to Kansas State in the Cotton Bowl bounced the Vols from the final poll.
• November of 2002 through the final poll
• Late October of 2005 through the final poll
• The week after losing to Alabama in 2007

From 1989-2007, that’s it.

From 2008-2019, it’s easier for me to tell you when Tennessee was ranked:

• 2008 preseason poll
• The week of the Florida game in 2012
• The first two weeks and the final poll in 2015
• The first nine weeks of 2016, plus the week of the Vanderbilt game and the final poll after beating Nebraska in the Music City Bowl
• The first three weeks in 2017

So now, we’re back in the poll for the first time since September 10, 2017. The point about staying ranked will be less potent if the Vols jump 10+ spots by beating South Carolina and nine other teams being removed from the poll because they’re not playing. But the point about staying relevant very much remains. These year three Vols, similar to their Butch Jones predecessors, got here by a strong finish in year two without beating any ranked teams along the way. They’re good enough to be dangerous, and in no way good enough to avoid danger themselves. Staying relevant this year will look like staying alive in the SEC East race; a 6-4 finish with a loss to Florida in December will feel different than, say, a 6-4 finish that started 2-3.

We’ve been here before, more than once. The way forward looks much different in a pandemic. But it’s up to the 2020 Vols to see that being ranked in the preseason poll is more than just a brief historical footnote this time around.