Category Archives: Football

Two bits of good news this week: the Pac-12 is back, giving as full a meaning and purpose to our college football institutions as is available in 2020. The College Football Playoff will select from a full field, though they’ll now have the unenviable task of picking four teams from (at least) five conferences that didn’t play the same number of games. ESPN’s FPI currently projects conference championship games that include something like 10-1 Clemson vs 9-2 Notre Dame, 9-1 Alabama vs 8-2 Georgia, 9-1 Texas vs 8-2 Oklahoma, and 7-1 Ohio State vs 7-1 Wisconsin. In such a mess, I’m not sure any team that doesn’t win its division would have enough of an argument to get in, but I’m sure that won’t stop anyone from trying.

The Pac-12’s return also puts the polls in their proper historical context. Tennessee is ranked 16th in the AP poll, which doesn’t include Big Ten/Pac-12 teams, and 21st in the coaches’ poll, which doesn’t include the Pac-12. It’s probably most helpful to think of the Vols at #25, their preseason ranking, and go from there. But at least the final polls will include the all the major options.

Those final polls are one way to measure a season that will surely need some additional data than the final record. 6-4 will be worth much more than it normally would with everyone playing a more difficult schedule. And you could also have a host of teams with the same record, all a little unsure how to feel about it. So that’s where the second bit of good news this week comes in: not only does it appear we’re still getting bowl games this year, but everyone is eligible. Taken out by the virus at 3-7? Welcome to Shreveport, baby!

We all deserve a participation ribbon this year; I’ve got no problem with it. But more to the point, the possibility of a bowl trip we’d normally be excited about, even if it’s light on the trip portion this year, can help validate a good result for Tennessee.

2020 SEC win total odds, per SP+

* The "8-2 SEC team vs. 7-1 B1G team" debate is gonna be fascinating (and loud)
* I'm back so hard on the LSU bandwagon that their win odds seem REALLY low to me
* MSU, Mizzou, Ole Miss & SC = 4-way pointing Spiderman meme
* oof, Vandy pic.twitter.com/mFqueEi8s5

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 22, 2020

If everybody hit their most likely outcome, the SEC would finish like this:

SEC East

1. Florida/Georgia winner at 8-2
2. Florida/Georgia loser at 8-2
3. Tennessee/Kentucky winner at 5-5
4. Tennessee/Kentucky loser at 5-5
5. South Carolina 4-6
6. Missouri 3-7
7. Vanderbilt 0-10

SEC West

1. Alabama 8-2
2. Texas A&M 7-3
3. Auburn/LSU winner at 6-4
4. Auburn/LSU loser at 6-4
5. Ole Miss 4-6
6. Mississippi State 3-7
7. Arkansas 1-9

Let’s assume the SEC Champion is making the playoff either way, even with two losses. In this scenario, we might find the loser in Atlanta and the second place SEC East team also making the New Year’s Six. If the traditional structure holds, 7-3 Texas A&M would be the Citrus Bowl pick, and the 5-5 Vols would find themselves in the group of six bowls, with Nashville the most likely destination.

But if the Vols got to 6-4, they might find themselves a prime candidate for the Outback Bowl. A 6-4 season that ended with a shot at, say, Michigan in what would join our 2015 (and 2006, and 2007) Tampa appearance as Tennessee’s most prestigious bowl destination since 2004? That would give some extra juice to 6-4.

In a year when final record will be a terrible way to compare teams from one conference to another but a much better way to compare teams from the same conference, every win could make a big difference come bowl time. Our best benchmarks for forward progress this year remain:

1. Having a real chance to win every single Saturday
2. Staying in the SEC East race deep into the season

But if Tampa (or Orlando!) is out there as a reasonable destination? Everyone deserves the participation ribbon, but the Outback or Citrus Bowl would be an excellent exclamation point for Tennessee this year, and they could get there at 6-4 or better.

Last year, before kickoff, it was, “It’s nice to play a cupcake for a change!” So lesson one: whatever we say, say it very carefully.

Georgia State was supposed to be the first easy Week 1 opponent for the Vols since Butch Jones’ debut against Austin Peay in 2013. If there’s any good news in that, it’s that we’re used to a challenge right away, expected or otherwise. That means a job well done in week one is incredibly rewarding…and incredibly difficult to come by.

That incredibly rewarding feeling? We’ve only seen it once on opening weekend in these last six years. On a Sunday night in Neyland, Tennessee scored on its second drive against Utah State, recovered a fumble on the ensuing kickoff, and scored again on the very next play. The Vols routed Chukie Keeton and the Aggies 38-7 behind a solid 27-of-38 for 273 and three touchdowns from Justin Worley. It’s not that you thought the Vols were going to win it all after that one, and it’s not that Tennessee didn’t disappoint mightily against Florida a month later. But a good first impression, especially in unusual times, is valuable beyond fan expectations. And since 2014, week one has gone differently:

• 2015: This Kamara kid might be the real deal, but will we ever stop a go route again? Did we really give up 557 yards to Bowling Green?
• 2016: Never schedule Appalachian State. Ever. Never ever.
• 2017: Well, we gave up 655 yards to Georgia Tech, but we won woooooooooooooooooooooo (what a spectacularly insane football game that ultimately amounted to nothing).
• 2018: Hmm, so not having Butch Jones out there didn’t automatically make us good enough to beat West Virginia. Okay.
• 2019: (Fulmerized)

How often does the first impression stick? The 2015 Vols did indeed stop a go route, and ended up coming closer to the promised land than any other team post-Fulmer. The warning signs from 2016, 2017, and 2018 turned out to be true. And the story of last season was about Georgia State, then about how they were able to make it not about Georgia State, and give this season a chance to make us remember it again as a starting point for something much bigger than 8-5.

If future schedules hold, the Vols will open 2021 with Bowling Green and 2022 with Ball State before traveling to Provo to open 2023. So maybe this is a temporary issue. But for the next 11 weeks, the only break is the bye week. This will be an entirely new experience for all of us, not only watching Tennessee but watching Georgia and Florida have real opportunities to lose almost every Saturday. Much like conference play in basketball, every win is a good win. So if we get a grumpy win, we’ll take it and move on to Missouri. We’ll take one every Saturday in the chase for the SEC East.

But man…wouldn’t it be fun to get off to a good start?

Go Vols.

Tennessee opened as a 2.5-point favorite over the Gamecocks this week, and the line is now vacillating between 3 and 3.5. So . . . does the Statsy Preview Machine think the Vols will cover against South Carolina Saturday night? Let’s take a look and then decide whether we think it’s right.

From the perspective of Tennessee

Neither Tennessee nor South Carolina have played a game yet this year, so the SPM will be using the prior year’s data both for (1) scoring offense and defense, and (2) comps.

Tennessee’s Scoring Offense last year: 24.2
South Carolina’s Scoring Offense last year: 22.4

Tennessee’s Scoring Defense last year: 21.7
South Carolina’s Scoring Defense last year: 26.1

The South Carolina scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:
South Carolina 26.1
BYU 25.5

Against BYU, Tennessee scored 26 points
Against South Carolina, Tennessee scored 41 points
So, against the two best comps, Tennessee is scoring 130% of what those teams usually give up.

Estimated points for Tennessee against South Carolina: 33.9

The South Carolina scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:
South Carolina 22.4
UAB 23.1

Against UAB, Tennessee allowed 7 points
Against South Carolina, Tennessee allowed 21 points
So, against the two best comps, Tennessee is allowing 61% of what those teams usually score.

Estimated points for South Carolina against Tennessee: 13.7

Estimated score: Tennessee 33.9, South Carolina 13.7

From the perspective of South Carolina

South Carolina’s Scoring Offense last year: 22.4
Tennessee’s Scoring Offense last year: 24.2

South Carolina’s Scoring Defense last year: 26.1
Tennessee’s Scoring Defense last year: 21.7

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior South Carolina opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:
Tennessee 21.7
Texas A&M 22.5

Against Tennessee, South Carolina scored 21 points
Against Texas A&M, South Carolina scored 6 points
So, against the two best comps, South Carolina is scoring 61% of what those teams usually give up.

Estimated points for South Carolina against Tennessee: 13.2

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior South Carolina opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:
Tennessee 24.2
Missouri 25.3

Against Missouri, South Carolina allowed 34 points
Against Tennessee, South Carolina allowed 41 points
So, against the two best comps, South Carolina is allowing 152% of what those teams usually score.

Estimated points for Tennessee against South Carolina: 36.8

Estimated score: South Carolina 13.2, Tennessee 36.8

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 35.3, South Carolina 13.4

SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee –21.9

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 19.4

That’s a huge difference between the SPM’s projected spread and the Vegas line. It’s so big, in fact, that it’s over the sweet spot and into possibly-wonky territory.

Eyeball adjustments

The estimated points for Tennessee is probably inflated a bit just based on last year’s numbers, as it relies on the Vols’ 41 points against South Carolina in their last meeting, which was a bit of an anomaly. We probably shouldn’t expect them to get that 130% of what teams usually give up unless JIM CHANEY YEAR 2 WOO. If we remove last year’s game, the next best comp is Indiana, a game in which the Vols basically scored what the Hoosiers averaged giving up. So, if we use 100% instead of 130%, we get an estimated point total for the Vols of 26 from Tennessee’s perspective. With that, the combined estimated points for the Vols (from both teams’ perspectives) falls to 31.5.

Similarly, removing UAB as the second-best comp for Carolina’s defense leaves Missouri as the next-best, and the Vols held them to about 80% of what they averaged last season. At 80% instead of 60%, that’s still only 18 points for the Gamecocks from Tennessee’s perspective. So, their cumulative points moves only from 13 to 16, and we still have the Vols doubling them up.

From South Carolina’s perspective, if we removed Tennessee’s 41 points scored against them last year and look at Kentucky instead, that moves their percentage to 78%, which would make the Vols points 19. Combined, that’s still 22 points for Tennessee against 13-16 for the Gamecocks.

As far as intangibles go, my gut is in accord with the machine this week. If there’s any such thing as a hot seat in a pandemic year, Will Muschamp is on it. And until I see otherwise, I’m believing in significant improvement from Tennessee’s offense in Jim Chaney’s second year. I like the Vols by at least a touchdown and am fairly confident in something more.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Tennessee 28, South Carolina 13. Both I and the Statsy Preview Machine like the Vols to cover in this one.

Other predictions from other systems

As I said before, the Vols opened as 2.5-point favorites and are currently 3 – 3.5-point favorites. With an over/under of 43.5 – 48, that translates to something like Tennessee 24, South Carolina 21.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee 24-20 (Vols -4), and gives the Vols a 60% chance of winning.

Bottom line

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine loves the Vols and I like them a lot as either a 2.5- or 3.5-point favorite. It has overshot the sweet spot for the machine, though, so some suspicion is advised.

• Vegas: Tennessee, -3.5 (~Tennessee 24, South Carolina 21)
• SP+: Tennessee 24, South Carolina 20 (covers)
• SPM: Tennessee 35, South Carolina 13 (covers with a woo)
• Me: Tennessee 28, South Carolina 13 (covers)

What do y’all think?

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine got coronavirused after Week 1. Turns out, the thing is not a fan of teams starting the season at different times, as it was programmed to use weeks as a rough approximation of games played. But when it came up against matchups that featured teams with unequal number of games played and, in addition, for which one team had adequate comps from this season while the other did not, well, it kind of threw up all over its shoes.

An entire weekend in the shop, and it is now good as new and able to contend with teams playing opponents at different stages of their respective seasons. Last week, it went 10-5 (66.67%) overall, 8-2 (80%) in Category 2, and 3-1 (75%) in the favored Category 3 games. That makes up some ground from the first couple of weeks, and it is now, for the young season, 17-17 (50%) in Category 1, 11-5 (68.75%) in Category 2, and 5-3 (62.5%) in Category 3.

So, off we go.

As a reminder, there’s a reason we do this, and it might not be what you think. That link also includes an explanation of what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 4 Picks

With yet another (and probably not the last) word of warning about The Unknowable, here are the Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 4 of the 2020 college football season:

The six games in green are Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week.

What are you favorite games this week?

Even for a team on a six-game winning streak, little came easy for Tennessee last year. In the Vols’ four-game sweep of the SEC East’s second tier (South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt) – our first such sweep since 2015 – Tennessee had to come from behind in all four games.

That’s because the Vols struggled mightily on the game’s opening drive, on both sides of the ball.

Take out the win over Chattanooga, and in a dozen FBS contests last year, Tennessee’s opening drives ended this way:

2019 OFFENSE

• Three-and-out: 4
• Punt: 3
• Turnover: 3
• Touchdown: 1
• Field Goal: 1

The lone touchdown: 15 plays, 80 yards against BYU, ending on a batted ball fourth down conversion in the end zone. The lone field goal came after intercepting UAB on the game’s first play, then only advancing the ball a single yard from the 19 in three plays.

The defense? Well, they didn’t help each other out:

2019 DEFENSE

• Touchdown: 6
• Field Goal: 2
• Turnover: 2
• Three-and-out: 1
• Punt: 1

The Vols gave up six on the opening drive against Georgia State (short field), Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina (first play), and Kentucky. Especially when you’re looking for the upset, that’s not the way you want to get started.

So this made me curious: is this a pattern?

Different coordinators, but here’s what the Vols did on the opening drive in 2018 against FBS competition:

2018 OFFENSE

• Three-and-out: 4
• Punt: 4
• Turnover: 2
• Field Goal: 1

In Jeremy Pruitt’s two seasons and 23 contests against FBS foes, the Vols have scored a touchdown on the opening drive once, and scored points only three times. Of those three scores, a field goal at Auburn in 2018 was the only one against a Power 5 opponent.

The defense in Pruitt’s first year:

2018 DEFENSE

• Punt: 4
• Touchdown: 3
• Field Goal: 2
• Three-and-out: 2

So better than their 2019 counterparts, but still surrendered points on 45% of the opponent’s opening drives. In Pruitt’s 23 FBS games, the Vols have scored on the opening drive three times, and allowed points on the opening drive 13 times. Simply put: the Vols have to start faster. Play from behind for so long and you can only expect so much success.

I was curious about Jim Chaney here too, and was a little alarmed when I ran the 2012 numbers for Tennessee (all via ESPN.com’s play-by-play data). Even the vaunted Bray-Hunter-CP offense scored just three times on their opening drives, though they were all touchdowns. Those Vols went three-and-out four times, punted twice, and turned it over twice.

But Chaney’s run at Georgia ended with far more success. In his last year at Georgia in 2018, Chaney’s offense scored a touchdown on the opening drive six times in 13 FBS games, plus two field goals. Those dudes were not messing around and almost never played from behind.

Tennessee probably isn’t good enough to jump on everyone they play this fall. But even if they’re better than last year, you can’t keep falling behind and expect it not to cost you. The Vols got away with it at the end of last season against the SEC East. But a faster start in 2020 could lead to more breathing room at the end, setting an initial tone the Vols have struggled to establish going back to the Butch Jones years. I’ll be curious to see how they come out of the gate on Saturday night.

And now the real football season begins, as the SEC kicks off a 10-game conference-only schedule this week.

First up is this week’s college football TV schedule curated just for Vols fans. Again, this means a little something different this year. We’re assuming you’re hungry for pretty much anything resembling football at this point.

Thursday, September 24, 2020

Not a lot to see here, but it’s Thursday night of a real college football week now that the SEC is playing games. And just the general sound of ESPN — the on-air personalities, the theme music, etc. — warms a heart.

Friday, September 25, 2020

This may be a maybe-maybe-not game for you, depending on how hungry you still are for anything resembling football. Honestly, I probably won’t catch this one.

Gameday, September 26, 2020

And finally, it’s the SEC all day, baby! At noon, we have two future Vols opponents (Week 4 and Week 8). The Vols are competing in the East, so we’re rooting for West teams over East teams every time to get a leg up on the standings. Kentucky’s no slouch, but Auburn should get them and help the Vols a bit right out of the gate.

The afternoon slot features our first look at Georgia, which should be downright frightening on defense but possibly anything but on offense. New Hogs head man Sam Pittman goes up against his former team, and although they’re not likely to score many (if any) points, maybe he can do something on defense. Woo Pig Sooie.

And then, finally, it’s Football Time in Tennessee, although it’s actually taking place in the Palmetto State as the Vols travel to South Carolina to take on the Gamecocks at 7:30 on the SEC Network. I’m liking the Vols a lot in this one. But don’t forget to set your DVR to catch two other future Vols opponents in Vanderbilt and Texas A&M taking place in the same time slot.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the South Carolina Gamecocks. This obviously uses last year’s data for both teams, but assuming the teams don’t deviate too far from who they were in 2019, the stat matchups suggest that the Vols defense should give its offense plenty of time to figure out whether it wants to lean on the run or the pass against the Gamecocks.

Details below.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

To the extent that last year is any indication (which is questionable), the Vols should be able to protect Jarrett Guarantano, and the offense should be able to convert third downs at a pretty good percentage.

Where’s the danger?

Watch out for interceptions, and brace for struggles on first down. If either one of those things turns out not to be a problem, that’s a very good sign.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

I’d think that Jim Chaney is going to want to test the run game against these guys. Even though it looks like the o-line would be able to protect Guarantano all day, South Carolina’s secondary appears to be a bigger threat to the Vols’ passing game than the Gamecocks’ run defense does to Tennessee’s run game, which should be much improved this year. I’d start there and see what happens.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

The Gamecocks were not a threat through the air to anyone last year, and Tennesse’s defense ranks well in defending the pass. They have a new quarterback this year, but we’ll see whether that’s an improvement or not. Overall, their offense is not much of a threat at all, so the Vols should be able to pin them down early and keep them there most of the game.

Where’s the danger?

Mistakes and the general wonkiness introduced into the system by the virus.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Do what you do. Focus on discipline and don’t make mistakes, and the defense should fine.

Special teams

Link to table

Assuming the Vols can find someone to fill the big shoes of Marquez Callaway in the punt return game (Eric Gray, Velus Jones?), Tennessee should have an advantage in punt returns. South Carolina appears to have an advantage in actual punting, though.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Not much to see here except that the Gamecocks were better last year than the Vols in the turnover game. We’ll see whether the Vols can make any progress there.

As we prep for the 2020 season, here’s a quick look at how the Vols’ national rankings have trended in each of the official NCAA stat categories for the past seven years.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Did well last year: Passing Yards per Completion, sacks allowed, 3rd down conversion percentage

Did not do well last year: 4th down conversion percentage, completion percentage, interceptions, total offense, scoring offense . . .

With the exception of the top four categories, this whole thing leans into the basement. We’re expecting to see some major improvement overall on the offense this fall, but we’ll obviously have to wait and see.

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Did well last year: Getting interceptions, passing yards allowed, total defense, passing efficiency defense, scoring defense, getting sacks

Did not do well last year: Getting tackles for loss

Conversely, with the exception of tackles for loss (which you would think would trend right along with sacks but did not in this case), the entire defense is trending toward the penthouse. We haven’t seen that much green since 2014. A belated high-five to John Jancek.

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Did well last year: Punt returns, kickoff return defense

Needs attention: There really wasn’t anything the Vols were really bad at on special teams last year, but they could improve in the punt game.

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Um . . .

Did not do well last year: Fumbles Recovered

There’s a lot of room for improvement in both penalties and turnovers this year. The team was not very good at either keeping possession or taking it from the other team last fall, and there are a lot of hidden yards in the penalty department, as long as fixing that doesn’t come at the cost of necessary aggression.