Category Archives: Football

Tennessee opened as a 2.5-point favorite over the Gamecocks this week, and the line is now vacillating between 3 and 3.5. So . . . does the Statsy Preview Machine think the Vols will cover against South Carolina Saturday night? Let’s take a look and then decide whether we think it’s right.

From the perspective of Tennessee

Neither Tennessee nor South Carolina have played a game yet this year, so the SPM will be using the prior year’s data both for (1) scoring offense and defense, and (2) comps.

Tennessee’s Scoring Offense last year: 24.2
South Carolina’s Scoring Offense last year: 22.4

Tennessee’s Scoring Defense last year: 21.7
South Carolina’s Scoring Defense last year: 26.1

The South Carolina scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:
South Carolina 26.1
BYU 25.5

Against BYU, Tennessee scored 26 points
Against South Carolina, Tennessee scored 41 points
So, against the two best comps, Tennessee is scoring 130% of what those teams usually give up.

Estimated points for Tennessee against South Carolina: 33.9

The South Carolina scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:
South Carolina 22.4
UAB 23.1

Against UAB, Tennessee allowed 7 points
Against South Carolina, Tennessee allowed 21 points
So, against the two best comps, Tennessee is allowing 61% of what those teams usually score.

Estimated points for South Carolina against Tennessee: 13.7

Estimated score: Tennessee 33.9, South Carolina 13.7

From the perspective of South Carolina

South Carolina’s Scoring Offense last year: 22.4
Tennessee’s Scoring Offense last year: 24.2

South Carolina’s Scoring Defense last year: 26.1
Tennessee’s Scoring Defense last year: 21.7

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior South Carolina opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:
Tennessee 21.7
Texas A&M 22.5

Against Tennessee, South Carolina scored 21 points
Against Texas A&M, South Carolina scored 6 points
So, against the two best comps, South Carolina is scoring 61% of what those teams usually give up.

Estimated points for South Carolina against Tennessee: 13.2

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior South Carolina opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:
Tennessee 24.2
Missouri 25.3

Against Missouri, South Carolina allowed 34 points
Against Tennessee, South Carolina allowed 41 points
So, against the two best comps, South Carolina is allowing 152% of what those teams usually score.

Estimated points for Tennessee against South Carolina: 36.8

Estimated score: South Carolina 13.2, Tennessee 36.8

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 35.3, South Carolina 13.4

SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee –21.9

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 19.4

That’s a huge difference between the SPM’s projected spread and the Vegas line. It’s so big, in fact, that it’s over the sweet spot and into possibly-wonky territory.

Eyeball adjustments

The estimated points for Tennessee is probably inflated a bit just based on last year’s numbers, as it relies on the Vols’ 41 points against South Carolina in their last meeting, which was a bit of an anomaly. We probably shouldn’t expect them to get that 130% of what teams usually give up unless JIM CHANEY YEAR 2 WOO. If we remove last year’s game, the next best comp is Indiana, a game in which the Vols basically scored what the Hoosiers averaged giving up. So, if we use 100% instead of 130%, we get an estimated point total for the Vols of 26 from Tennessee’s perspective. With that, the combined estimated points for the Vols (from both teams’ perspectives) falls to 31.5.

Similarly, removing UAB as the second-best comp for Carolina’s defense leaves Missouri as the next-best, and the Vols held them to about 80% of what they averaged last season. At 80% instead of 60%, that’s still only 18 points for the Gamecocks from Tennessee’s perspective. So, their cumulative points moves only from 13 to 16, and we still have the Vols doubling them up.

From South Carolina’s perspective, if we removed Tennessee’s 41 points scored against them last year and look at Kentucky instead, that moves their percentage to 78%, which would make the Vols points 19. Combined, that’s still 22 points for Tennessee against 13-16 for the Gamecocks.

As far as intangibles go, my gut is in accord with the machine this week. If there’s any such thing as a hot seat in a pandemic year, Will Muschamp is on it. And until I see otherwise, I’m believing in significant improvement from Tennessee’s offense in Jim Chaney’s second year. I like the Vols by at least a touchdown and am fairly confident in something more.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Tennessee 28, South Carolina 13. Both I and the Statsy Preview Machine like the Vols to cover in this one.

Other predictions from other systems

As I said before, the Vols opened as 2.5-point favorites and are currently 3 – 3.5-point favorites. With an over/under of 43.5 – 48, that translates to something like Tennessee 24, South Carolina 21.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee 24-20 (Vols -4), and gives the Vols a 60% chance of winning.

Bottom line

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine loves the Vols and I like them a lot as either a 2.5- or 3.5-point favorite. It has overshot the sweet spot for the machine, though, so some suspicion is advised.

• Vegas: Tennessee, -3.5 (~Tennessee 24, South Carolina 21)
• SP+: Tennessee 24, South Carolina 20 (covers)
• SPM: Tennessee 35, South Carolina 13 (covers with a woo)
• Me: Tennessee 28, South Carolina 13 (covers)

What do y’all think?

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine got coronavirused after Week 1. Turns out, the thing is not a fan of teams starting the season at different times, as it was programmed to use weeks as a rough approximation of games played. But when it came up against matchups that featured teams with unequal number of games played and, in addition, for which one team had adequate comps from this season while the other did not, well, it kind of threw up all over its shoes.

An entire weekend in the shop, and it is now good as new and able to contend with teams playing opponents at different stages of their respective seasons. Last week, it went 10-5 (66.67%) overall, 8-2 (80%) in Category 2, and 3-1 (75%) in the favored Category 3 games. That makes up some ground from the first couple of weeks, and it is now, for the young season, 17-17 (50%) in Category 1, 11-5 (68.75%) in Category 2, and 5-3 (62.5%) in Category 3.

So, off we go.

As a reminder, there’s a reason we do this, and it might not be what you think. That link also includes an explanation of what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 4 Picks

With yet another (and probably not the last) word of warning about The Unknowable, here are the Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 4 of the 2020 college football season:

The six games in green are Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week.

What are you favorite games this week?

Even for a team on a six-game winning streak, little came easy for Tennessee last year. In the Vols’ four-game sweep of the SEC East’s second tier (South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt) – our first such sweep since 2015 – Tennessee had to come from behind in all four games.

That’s because the Vols struggled mightily on the game’s opening drive, on both sides of the ball.

Take out the win over Chattanooga, and in a dozen FBS contests last year, Tennessee’s opening drives ended this way:

2019 OFFENSE

• Three-and-out: 4
• Punt: 3
• Turnover: 3
• Touchdown: 1
• Field Goal: 1

The lone touchdown: 15 plays, 80 yards against BYU, ending on a batted ball fourth down conversion in the end zone. The lone field goal came after intercepting UAB on the game’s first play, then only advancing the ball a single yard from the 19 in three plays.

The defense? Well, they didn’t help each other out:

2019 DEFENSE

• Touchdown: 6
• Field Goal: 2
• Turnover: 2
• Three-and-out: 1
• Punt: 1

The Vols gave up six on the opening drive against Georgia State (short field), Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina (first play), and Kentucky. Especially when you’re looking for the upset, that’s not the way you want to get started.

So this made me curious: is this a pattern?

Different coordinators, but here’s what the Vols did on the opening drive in 2018 against FBS competition:

2018 OFFENSE

• Three-and-out: 4
• Punt: 4
• Turnover: 2
• Field Goal: 1

In Jeremy Pruitt’s two seasons and 23 contests against FBS foes, the Vols have scored a touchdown on the opening drive once, and scored points only three times. Of those three scores, a field goal at Auburn in 2018 was the only one against a Power 5 opponent.

The defense in Pruitt’s first year:

2018 DEFENSE

• Punt: 4
• Touchdown: 3
• Field Goal: 2
• Three-and-out: 2

So better than their 2019 counterparts, but still surrendered points on 45% of the opponent’s opening drives. In Pruitt’s 23 FBS games, the Vols have scored on the opening drive three times, and allowed points on the opening drive 13 times. Simply put: the Vols have to start faster. Play from behind for so long and you can only expect so much success.

I was curious about Jim Chaney here too, and was a little alarmed when I ran the 2012 numbers for Tennessee (all via ESPN.com’s play-by-play data). Even the vaunted Bray-Hunter-CP offense scored just three times on their opening drives, though they were all touchdowns. Those Vols went three-and-out four times, punted twice, and turned it over twice.

But Chaney’s run at Georgia ended with far more success. In his last year at Georgia in 2018, Chaney’s offense scored a touchdown on the opening drive six times in 13 FBS games, plus two field goals. Those dudes were not messing around and almost never played from behind.

Tennessee probably isn’t good enough to jump on everyone they play this fall. But even if they’re better than last year, you can’t keep falling behind and expect it not to cost you. The Vols got away with it at the end of last season against the SEC East. But a faster start in 2020 could lead to more breathing room at the end, setting an initial tone the Vols have struggled to establish going back to the Butch Jones years. I’ll be curious to see how they come out of the gate on Saturday night.

And now the real football season begins, as the SEC kicks off a 10-game conference-only schedule this week.

First up is this week’s college football TV schedule curated just for Vols fans. Again, this means a little something different this year. We’re assuming you’re hungry for pretty much anything resembling football at this point.

Thursday, September 24, 2020

Not a lot to see here, but it’s Thursday night of a real college football week now that the SEC is playing games. And just the general sound of ESPN — the on-air personalities, the theme music, etc. — warms a heart.

Friday, September 25, 2020

This may be a maybe-maybe-not game for you, depending on how hungry you still are for anything resembling football. Honestly, I probably won’t catch this one.

Gameday, September 26, 2020

And finally, it’s the SEC all day, baby! At noon, we have two future Vols opponents (Week 4 and Week 8). The Vols are competing in the East, so we’re rooting for West teams over East teams every time to get a leg up on the standings. Kentucky’s no slouch, but Auburn should get them and help the Vols a bit right out of the gate.

The afternoon slot features our first look at Georgia, which should be downright frightening on defense but possibly anything but on offense. New Hogs head man Sam Pittman goes up against his former team, and although they’re not likely to score many (if any) points, maybe he can do something on defense. Woo Pig Sooie.

And then, finally, it’s Football Time in Tennessee, although it’s actually taking place in the Palmetto State as the Vols travel to South Carolina to take on the Gamecocks at 7:30 on the SEC Network. I’m liking the Vols a lot in this one. But don’t forget to set your DVR to catch two other future Vols opponents in Vanderbilt and Texas A&M taking place in the same time slot.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the South Carolina Gamecocks. This obviously uses last year’s data for both teams, but assuming the teams don’t deviate too far from who they were in 2019, the stat matchups suggest that the Vols defense should give its offense plenty of time to figure out whether it wants to lean on the run or the pass against the Gamecocks.

Details below.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

To the extent that last year is any indication (which is questionable), the Vols should be able to protect Jarrett Guarantano, and the offense should be able to convert third downs at a pretty good percentage.

Where’s the danger?

Watch out for interceptions, and brace for struggles on first down. If either one of those things turns out not to be a problem, that’s a very good sign.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

I’d think that Jim Chaney is going to want to test the run game against these guys. Even though it looks like the o-line would be able to protect Guarantano all day, South Carolina’s secondary appears to be a bigger threat to the Vols’ passing game than the Gamecocks’ run defense does to Tennessee’s run game, which should be much improved this year. I’d start there and see what happens.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

The Gamecocks were not a threat through the air to anyone last year, and Tennesse’s defense ranks well in defending the pass. They have a new quarterback this year, but we’ll see whether that’s an improvement or not. Overall, their offense is not much of a threat at all, so the Vols should be able to pin them down early and keep them there most of the game.

Where’s the danger?

Mistakes and the general wonkiness introduced into the system by the virus.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Do what you do. Focus on discipline and don’t make mistakes, and the defense should fine.

Special teams

Link to table

Assuming the Vols can find someone to fill the big shoes of Marquez Callaway in the punt return game (Eric Gray, Velus Jones?), Tennessee should have an advantage in punt returns. South Carolina appears to have an advantage in actual punting, though.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Not much to see here except that the Gamecocks were better last year than the Vols in the turnover game. We’ll see whether the Vols can make any progress there.

As we prep for the 2020 season, here’s a quick look at how the Vols’ national rankings have trended in each of the official NCAA stat categories for the past seven years.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Did well last year: Passing Yards per Completion, sacks allowed, 3rd down conversion percentage

Did not do well last year: 4th down conversion percentage, completion percentage, interceptions, total offense, scoring offense . . .

With the exception of the top four categories, this whole thing leans into the basement. We’re expecting to see some major improvement overall on the offense this fall, but we’ll obviously have to wait and see.

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Did well last year: Getting interceptions, passing yards allowed, total defense, passing efficiency defense, scoring defense, getting sacks

Did not do well last year: Getting tackles for loss

Conversely, with the exception of tackles for loss (which you would think would trend right along with sacks but did not in this case), the entire defense is trending toward the penthouse. We haven’t seen that much green since 2014. A belated high-five to John Jancek.

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Did well last year: Punt returns, kickoff return defense

Needs attention: There really wasn’t anything the Vols were really bad at on special teams last year, but they could improve in the punt game.

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Um . . .

Did not do well last year: Fumbles Recovered

There’s a lot of room for improvement in both penalties and turnovers this year. The team was not very good at either keeping possession or taking it from the other team last fall, and there are a lot of hidden yards in the penalty department, as long as fixing that doesn’t come at the cost of necessary aggression.

“Less.” Let’s start there.

The college football I’ve seen sounds more like its high school equivalent, but that still sounds more daunting than bubbles and empty arenas. The notion of home court advantage has been obliterated in the NBA Playoffs; the traditional road team has won 12 games in a row in contests featuring the Boston Celtics, for instance. In SP+ projections, home field advantage is now worth just a single point.

For Tennessee and South Carolina? Home field has been worth quite a bit.

In Knoxville, the Vols have won five of the last seven, and 2019’s 20-point margin of victory was the largest in the series since 2008. In Columbia, South Carolina has won five of the last six, and the Vols needed the miraculous to get that one in 2014.

Even as Tennessee’s program struggled and South Carolina’s ascended in the last decade, the games have always been close in Columbia: Tyler Bray’s debut against the eventual East champions in 2010, Derek Dooley’s last chance against an equally good Carolina team in 2012, both coming up just short in the fourth quarter. After Dobbs’ comeback in 2014, the Gamecocks pulled the shocking upset as a two-touchdown underdog to derail the 2016 season two years later. And two years ago, Jeremy Pruitt’s first team had a 21-9 lead after the opening drive of the third quarter, but gave up two touchdowns and a field goal on South Carolina’s next three drives for a 27-24 loss.

Tennessee’s luck in Columbia as opposed to the other second-tier SEC East foes:

Vols on the road since 2008:

Opponent	W	L
South Carolina	1	5
Kentucky	4	2
Missouri	2	2
Vanderbilt	3	3

Before the Vols blew last year’s game open, games in this series from 2012-18 were decided by three, two, three in overtime, three, three, six at the one yard line, and three. It may be easy for Tennessee fans to still hold onto notions of who South Carolina isn’t. Likewise, it may be easy for South Carolina fans to still hold onto notions of who the Vols still aren’t. Either way, the history here suggests something very close…and home field being worth even a little less is good news for Tennessee in this series.

A few months ago in the uncertain haze of the pandemic, we started counting down Tennessee’s most important stories of the decade. We did numbers 10-5 before it felt more certain we’d actually get SEC football this fall. If you’ll forgive the abrupt ending, it’s no surprise the top two stories of Tennessee’s last decade happened off the field: Kiffin’s midnight run to California, and the insanity of Schiano Sunday. But among on-field results, ranking for importance? That’s why those 2016 wins only came in at number five overall: because they were immediately overshadowed by those 2016 losses to South Carolina and Vanderbilt, which I had at number four. But I think those two losses were even more painful because of what Tennessee and Butch Jones had already been through. I think the most consequential on-field results for Tennessee in the last decade came against Oklahoma and Florida in 2015: a what-could-have-been so potent, it was still waiting for us on the other side of all those 2016 wins. The Vols had their best chance to cash in on everything Butch Jones had been building to that point against the Sooners and Gators, had them both and let them get away in spectacular fashion. It would have taken a championship to let that go. You just can’t miss those opportunities.

And that’s what year three is often about.

It happened much the same for Derek Dooley, only in the final game of year two against Kentucky, in his most consequential outcome. Year three is typically the, “I’ve seen enough to decide,” moment in the minds of many, even if it sometimes takes another year or two for those decisions to carry the weight of real consequence.

It’s Dooley’s “year zero” phrase we’ve come back to a lot under Jeremy Pruitt, in part because the early signing period has changed the year two math and magic for almost everyone, and in part because Tennessee was digging out of an even deeper hole. So even before the pandemic, 2020 wasn’t championship-or-bust for the Vols. Having a chance to win every Saturday was a great goal. It still is…if the Vols are playing at full strength every week.

The ifs will get fast and furious from here, the day before the week before kickoff. This is always the real end of the off-season for me, because Monday it’s game week, time to talk a specific opponent. This weekend is the last chance to take a clear look at the big picture. Our community’s expected win totals hover just above 5.8, meaning 6-4 is our best guess and 5-5 is more likely than 7-3. We’re always guessing anyway – see Georgia State and the last six games – but in 2020 none of us have studied for this particular exam.

So three thoughts as this season prepares to write its opening chapter:

On knowing it’s the Apocrypha before you read it

We’re deep into the multiverse now, if you like. This is a story that may or may not be canon, but will certainly influence the canon either way.

Everything we want to assume or believe about year three? Preconceived notions that Jeremy ain’t the guy since Georgia State or Jeremy’s definitely leaving for Alabama after we go undefeated this fall? We should unburden ourselves of all that.

It’s not one we’d pick or rank high in ultimate importance, but I think one of the toughest stretches for Tennessee fans in the last decade came when Justin Hunter and Tyler Bray were hurt after looking so unstoppable against Cincinnati in 2011. It’s so hard to create expectations and then have to let them go. What if the Vols roll South Carolina and Missouri, play Georgia to one possession, then lose a ton of guys to quarantine and lose to Kentucky? That would suck! And it could happen!

I don’t think we’re going to see a ton of coaching changes in the midst of the pandemic. Before all this, the most important story of the last decade was really about how it will get told in this decade. Is what happened three Novembers ago a story about Schiano and Currie? Or can it become a story about Pruitt and Fulmer? We won’t get those or any other complete answers in a year like this. But I’ve been grateful for their presence and leadership these last six months.

The Vols still need to put a compelling product on the field to help them recruit at the level they’re currently enjoying – this is perhaps the most important outcome this fall. But if this thing gets sideways and the Vols go 3-7, no one has the energy for a coaching hot board. This season counts. But it doesn’t count. But it does. Don’t overburden yourself with expectations and the overall narrative.

But that doesn’t mean this individual story can’t be a lot of fun.

Good news: it’s more important than ever to cheer against Florida and Georgia!

My camp is small, but steadfast: I always cheer for Florida (and Georgia, and Alabama, and Kentucky in basketball) until they beat us, because it’s more meaningful and valuable to us to beat them at their best. This is one part growing up with the Vols at their peak from 1989-2001, and one part idiot optimism. But I’ve always been this way.

Not this year.

This year is going to feel much more like the last two weeks of a pennant race: you may have a head-to-head shot at the team you’re trying to beat/catch/hold off, but you want them to lose every time they play. With Florida in December (like Georgia in November pre-pandemic), the Vols should have a chance to stay in the SEC East race longer than we’re used to. That, by itself, would feel like progress. ESPN’s FPI projects two losses for Georgia and three for Florida. Things should be tighter than usual. That’s good news for the underdog.

You’ll get a shot at this right away: next week Florida is at Ole Miss at noon on ESPN, Kentucky at Auburn at noon on the SEC Network. If the Vols are a half game up on either of their East counterparts when they kick off at 7:30, I’d enjoy it very much. Which brings me to my last point:

Joy is so valuable right now

When you turn on college football after the long pandemic summer, there’s an initial thrill: we made it! I wasn’t sure we’d get here! But, if you’re like me, the thrill only lasts so long when it’s BYU and Navy or Georgia Tech and Florida State or whomever in front of minimal fans. And then you wonder if you’ll feel the same way – absence with presence – when the Vols play.

Your mileage may vary. But my experience watching the Boston Celtics (and Grant Williams!) in the playoffs the last few weeks suggests we’re going to be just fine in the feels department.

Granted, basketball is something we often experience in front of no fans in a pickup game. Football (and baseball) are almost never played at full roster capacity without a crowd involved. So it might feel different, and it might feel a little like high school.

But I think it’s going to feel good. And I don’t think you’ll have to wait until 7:30 next Saturday night. When Florida and Ole Miss kick off, it matters to Tennessee. That’s what we’re looking for. That’s what we need.

This season matters enough. Maybe not for Jeremy Pruitt’s ultimate legacy, maybe not when different starters out different weeks produces very different outcomes.

But I think we will feel the things we want to feel when the orange and white hit the field, when cheering against the colors we despise. Different, sure, and for many of us not in person for the first time in a long time. Different, but still good. It’s always more about the thing itself than the thing when it wins. I have no idea how much winning Tennessee is going to do; I’m hopeful they’re going to have a chance every single Saturday.

But more than six months after wearing orange to work even knowing the Vols probably weren’t going to play Alabama in the SEC Tournament, next Saturday the Vols probably are. However different, our team is going to play.

That’s good news.

Go Vols.