We all want to win. And we’d like to win as fast as possible, please.

The most important word in that sentence is win. You don’t do that, nothing else will matter. But I do believe the healthiest word in that sentence is possible.

The depths of last Monday’s press conference and the looming shadow of violations made the whiplash all the more attractive when Tennessee hired Danny White. This is a great hire! Maybe he’ll get us out of this fast!

And it seems like the Vols gave that a real go. James Franklin is one of the best coaches in the country, and Tennessee seems to have made a run at him. He said no. I get how being associated, even loosely, with someone like Franklin can also raise expectations.

But the reality of who Tennessee is right now – the reality of what is possible at the moment – meant the Vols were always most likely to hire from a less proven tier.

Tennessee’s situation still feels most like exile. And not because they hired Josh Heupel today, but because of everything that led up to today, which is now everything Heupel and White (Josh and Danny?) will take responsibility for moving forward.

Patience was the best play last Monday, it swiftly faced temptation during this coaching search, and patience remains the best play today. Do not believe the prophets when they tell you this could’ve all been over soon. You do what you want, but I wouldn’t recommend spending any more energy on Lane Kiffin, other than wanting to beat him by a million when we play Ole Miss in the fall.

Heupel is what was possible, and perhaps the best of what was possible. Maybe if we don’t hire UCF’s AD, we don’t get a coach with as good a resume as his. The fact that White trusted him to work together again is good news to me. Either way, patience is still the best way out of exile. But this way, we might have a little more fun along the way.

In our candidates piece using SP+ to show progress over their predecessors, we noted that if Heupel was the pick, we’d talk a lot about how his 2018 and 2019 teams rated higher in SP+ than Scott Frost’s undefeated 2017 team:

Scott Frost & Josh Heupel, UCF

Coach	Year	Record	SP+	Avg SP+
O’Leary	2013	12-1	12.3
	2014	9-4	5.7
	2015	0-12	-15.5	0.8
Frost	2016	6-7	-2.2
	2017	13-0	14.1	6 (+5.2)
Heupel	2018	12-1	16.5
	2019	10-3	19.1
	2020	6-4	10.9	15.5 (+9.5)

The 2017 team went 4-0 in one possession games. The 2018 team went 1-1 – best way to win close games is not to play them – with the lone loss to LSU in the Fiesta Bowl after McKenzie Milton got hurt. The 2019 team went 1-3. But play for play, UCF improved from 2017 to 2018 to 2019.

And offensively:

Team	Year	Offensive SP+
Mizzou	2016	54th
Mizzou	2017	24th
UCF	2018	11th
UCF	2019	14th
UCF	2020	12th

Tennessee’s previous hires, you’ll remember, came to us as:

• Defensive coordinator, Alabama
• 23-14 at Cincinnati, 27-13 Central Michigan
• 17-20 at Louisiana Tech
• Fired after going 5-15 with the Raiders; Offensive coordinator, USC
• Offensive coordinator, Tennessee

If you’d like to debate the resumes of Butch Jones vs Josh Heupel, we can. In the above SP+ piece, we noted how Jones was a proven winner but didn’t improve what he inherited. It’s impossible, of course, to improve on the number of losses Heupel inherited from Scott Frost’s final year. But in SP+, he succeeded. I’ve never met him, but I wonder if there’s a part of anyone who might’ve followed Frost after 2017 that might want to make their own name in a different situation, to prove themselves outside of that shadow. If so, the desire to prove yourself is a good fit at a program looking to do the same.

You can make a respectable argument that Josh Heupel is the most proven collegiate head coach the Vols have hired since Johnny Majors. Heupel wouldn’t have been the only candidate to check that box, and being better than everything since Phillip Fulmer isn’t the ultimate goal. But at a time when this job might be harder than ever, it is where you start. It’s what is possible today.

Words matter. Danny White is right about that. What we say, what we tweet, what we put out there…it all matters. I don’t know if Josh Heupel will win at Tennessee or not. But even and especially in exile, seek the welfare of the city.

We can do that honestly. When Jeremy Pruitt was hired, we appreciated the eye towards the ceiling and said, “In the short-term, Pruitt is as good as Tennessee and Fulmer had any right to do after this crazy set of days.” When Butch Jones was hired, we noted how he was the lowest vote getter on our fan poll but thought fans would embrace him given time (and initially, he recruited his way into a big ol’ hug by March). When Derek Dooley was hired, I wrote about basketball.

But in each case, and now this one, I still believe the way we communicate matters. The healthiest way to do that for Tennessee is to embrace the reality of our situation, what was possible in this hire today, and what this hire might make possible from here.

For now, patience. Let’s see where it goes. And whatever it’s worth, even at the end of all these years of coaching searches, I find myself excited about those possibilities.

Go Vols.

I don’t know who Tennessee is going to hire. We’ve had enough experience at this to know there are no guarantees, which makes it less sensible to passionately push for one candidate over another. And hey, the powers that be at Tennessee – which now includes new athletic director Danny White – may have already made some moves, and eliminated half of this list or vetted guys who aren’t even on it. Either way, I’m hopeful this exercise can be of use to us in being better at evaluating what makes a good coach and, in particular, how we define success at Tennessee.

I continue to be drawn to this chart, which we used in a piece I wrote a couple days before the Texas A&M game, when the conversation on Jeremy Pruitt was only about wins and losses and not recruiting violations:

Thoughts about hiring coaches:

– Never hire a coach who didn't improve their prev. program (top left is empty)
– Improving a program may not be repeatable (bottom right is as crowded as top right)

[Improvement] = [Avg. SP+ under coach] – [Program's 3-Year SP+ Avg. Before Coach] pic.twitter.com/bv6QhIhUGO

— Bud Davis (@JBudDavis) December 7, 2020

As we said a month ago: For every coach who turned mid-to-low-major success into major success – Matt Campbell, James Franklin, Dan Mullen – there are coaches who aced level one but struggled with level two: Scott Frost, Justin Fuente, Charlie Strong. You never know.

The chart also helps understand the value of Bill Connelly’s SP+ in measuring the outcome of each play instead of each game. It’s one of our favorite metrics for that reason, and the way it can help you see the differences between similar records.

For instance, you’ll notice Jeff Brohm out in front in the top right quadrant for his work at Western Kentucky and Purdue, even though Purdue is 19-25 under his watch. That’s in part because Purdue was 9-39 in Darrell Hazell’s four years preceding him. But it’s also how those games were lost and won: Hazell’s teams lost 23 games by at least three possessions in his four years. Brohm’s teams have lost seven in his four years.

Here’s the transition from Hazell to Brohm at Purdue using the chart’s metric: average SP+ of the previous coach’s final three seasons and the average SP+ of the current coach:

Jeff Brohm, Purdue

Coach	Year	Record	SP+	Avg SP+
Hazell	2014	3-9	-6.2
	2015	2-10	-7.4
	2016	3-9	-11	-8.2
Brohm	2017	7-6	5.8
	2018	6-7	6.5
	2019	4-8	-0.7
	2020	2-4	6.1	4.4 (+12.6)

I’m not advocating Tennessee hire Jeff Brohm; we’ve already been down that road once. Maybe fans at Purdue are now asking if he can get them from Point B to Point C. He’s just an example of how growing a program can look.

(You’ll also note in that chart that Hugh Freeze is all over the top right quadrant, for what he’s done from Arkansas State to Ole Miss and now Liberty. Freeze is clearly a great coach on Saturdays. Of course, 27 of those wins at Ole Miss were vacated, and everything suggests Freeze will not be a candidate at Tennessee while the Vols are under their own investigation. So we’ll simply acknowledge all of that here and move on.)

'This isn’t the place to try somebody out.
This time, we’re going to find proven winners.'

In interview w/ @knoxnews, UT System President Randy Boyd and Chancellor Donde Plowman outline qualities they're seeking in next AD and football coach.

EXCLUSIVE⤵️https://t.co/OxR1Mh9ZK8

— Blake Toppmeyer (@btoppmeyer) January 20, 2021

Randy Boyd’s comments suggest the Vols will not hire an assistant coach (so I’m unsure what this means for viewing Kevin Steele as the safety net), and want a proven winner. One thing to note here, as we’ve had experience with it: “proven winner” should mean more than, “won games after inheriting a good situation.” We played that game with Butch Jones, who you’ll notice in the top left quadrant after following Brian Kelly twice:

Butch Jones, Cincinnati

Coach	Year	Record	SP+	Avg SP+
Kelly	2007	10-3	17.5
	2008	11-3	8.6
	2009	12-0	18.2	14.8
Jones	2010	4-8	2.5
	2011	10-3	12.8
	2012	9-3	11.1	8.8 (-6.0)

It wasn’t just that Jones was weighed down by his 4-8 transition year. The best he accomplished at Cincinnati was significantly lower than the ceiling he inherited.

What will Tennessee’s new coach inherit? Here’s the Vols in SP+ since Phillip Fulmer’s last three years:

While Jeremy Pruitt’s final season wasn’t as bad as Butch Jones’ final season, Tennessee’s inability to even approach the peaks under Jones or late-stage Fulmer stand out. And, of course, the new guy seems likely to inherit some violations and a depleted roster through the transfer portal, though those losses could be somewhat offset by gains the same way.

In short, this has been going the wrong way for a long time. Who is best suited to get it moving forward?

If we’re looking for “proven winners”, here’s a good template to start with:

Gus Malzahn, Auburn

Coach	Year	Record	SP+	Avg SP+
Chizik	2010	14-0	26.5
	2011	8-5	9
	2012	3-9	4.8	13.4
Malzahn	2013	12-2	25.2
	2014	8-5	24.2
	2015	7-6	14.6
	2016	8-5	15.3
	2017	10-4	24.7
	2018	8-5	23.6
	2019	9-4	21
	2020	6-4	11.4	20 (+6.6)

Malzahn, of course, gets some of that 2010 action as well; the 2020 team also has the Citrus Bowl loss to Northwestern on its resume that Malzahn wasn’t part of. One thing I like about SP+ here: you’ll note there’s not much that separates the 2013 almost-national-champions from the 8-5 finish the following year. The latter group wrecked #15 LSU by 34 and beat #4 Ole Miss, but lost to four Top 17 teams plus #25 Texas A&M by three. Malzahn’s teams did what I think you can realistically ask for, non-Bama division in this league: be in the hunt. The Tigers went to Atlanta ranked #2 in 2017, and spent time in the Top 10 in every one of Malzahn’s seasons.

Danny White’s hiring history doesn’t necessarily suggest a retread, but Malzahn’s history at Auburn would be in line with the kind of success we’d hope for from a good fit at Tennessee.

Let’s look at Danny White’s hires:

Lance Leipold, Buffalo

Coach	Year	Record	SP+	Avg SP+
Quinn	2012	4-8	-16.3
	2013	8-5	-9
	2014	5-6	-7.7	-11
Leipold	2015	5-7	-10.3
	2016	2-10	-18.8
	2017	6-6	-11.2
	2018	10-4	-1.1
	2019	8-5	-2
	2020	6-1	5.3	-6.4 (+4.6)

Leipold came to Buffalo from Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he won the Division III championship six times in eight years. At Buffalo, the rebuild was the long game: his second team was one of the worst in college football, and his third was no better than his first. But since then, the Bulls have entered uncharted territory for their program: a pair of division titles, their first in ten years, and a Top 25 finish this season.

Scott Frost & Josh Heupel, UCF

Coach	Year	Record	SP+	Avg SP+
O’Leary	2013	12-1	12.3
	2014	9-4	5.7
	2015	0-12	-15.5	0.8
Frost	2016	6-7	-2.2
	2017	13-0	14.1	6 (+5.2)
Heupel	2018	12-1	16.5
	2019	10-3	19.1
	2020	6-4	10.9	15.5 (+9.5)

The wild swing in 2015 throws some of the balance off here, to be sure. It’s also interesting to note that Heupel’s first team in 2018, which went undefeated before losing to LSU in the Fiesta Bowl, ranked higher than Frost’s final team in 2017, which went undefeated and beat Auburn in the Peach Bowl. And play-for-play, the best of the bunch was Heupel’s 2019 team, which lost at Pittsburgh by one, at Cincinnati by three, and at Tulsa by three. Along the way they busted up Lane Kiffin’s 11-3 FAU team 48-14, and beat Stanford 45-27. Should the Vols end up going with Heupel, we’ll make that point a lot. This year’s team beat Georgia Tech 49-21 in the opener, lost to Tulsa by eight and at Memphis by one, then lost to Cincinnati 36-33 and BYU in the bowl game.

So we know Danny White has experience with out-of-the-box hires; none of those three had previous FBS head coaching experience. We’ll see how that translates on the bigger stage in Knoxville.

On our podcast before White was hired, we started with these two names:

Billy Napier, Louisiana

Coach	Year	Record	SP+	Avg SP+
Hudspeth	2015	4-8	-7.1
	2016	6-7	-8.7
	2017	5-7	-15.8	-10.5
Napier	2018	7-7	-6.9
	2019	11-3	9.6
	2020	10-1	9.8	4.2 (+14.7)

There’s a ton to like here, far beyond the “born in Cookeville” stuff. Napier’s first team actually won their division, and he’s 21-4 the last two years, sharing the Sun Belt and finishing 15th in the AP poll this year. Napier combines the best of major power assistant experience with mid-major head coaching success. He’s the guy who built back furthest, fastest.

Jamey Chadwell, Coastal Carolina

Coach	Year	Record	SP+	Avg SP+
Chadwell	2017	3-9	-15.1
Moglia	2018	5-7	-17.2	-17.2
Chadwell	2019	5-7	-12.8
Chadwell	2020	11-1	12.2	-5.2 (+12)

Coastal isn’t the best fit for this experiment: for one, they just joined the FBS level in 2017, then Chadwell took over for an interim season that same year, so there’s only Moglia’s 2018 campaign to compare it to. Nevertheless, Chadwell’s team improved not only this season, but in 2019 as well, even though the record didn’t show it. Chadwell might be the next big thing, it’s just a much smaller sample size.

Again, no guarantees once you get to level two, but these are all guys who’ve aced level one.

If the Vols go (or are forced to go) more of the obvious rebuild route:

Bill Clark, UAB

Coach	Year	Record	SP+	Avg SP+
Callaway	2011	3-9	-19.2
McGee	2012	3-9	-11.1
	2013	2-10	-20.8	-17
Clark	2014	6-6	-4.2
	2017	8-5	-15.5
	2018	11-3	-0.3
	2019	9-5	-1.4
	2020	6-3	6.7	-2.9 (+14.1)

Clark, as you know, presided over the return of UAB’s program after it was shut down in 2015. His first team obviously carried some of that weight, but they were masterful in close games and earned bowl eligibility. It’s been all climb from there, including just a 24-20 loss to Louisiana, a double overtime loss to Louisiana Tech, and a 31-14 defeat to Miami this year. If the Vols hire Clark, perhaps it would help solidify the scope of this rebuild in all of our minds.

Let’s get this one on the board too:

Lane Kiffin

Coach	Year	Record	SP+	Avg SP+
Fulmer	2006	9-4	18.9
	2007	10-4	20.2
	2008	5-7	12	17
Kiffin	2009	7-6	16.2	16.2 (-0.8)
Coach	Year	Record	SP+	Avg SP+
Carroll	2007	11-2	32
	2008	12-1	37
	2009	9-4	16.6	28.5
Kiffin	2010	8-5	15.2
	2011	9-4	24.7
	2012	7-6	21.9
	2013	10-4	22.5	21.1 (-7.4)
Coach	Year	Record	SP+	Avg SP+
Partridge	2014	3-9	-10.4
	2015	3-9	-9.8
	2016	3-9	-14.1	-11.4
Kiffin	2017	11-3	5.1
	2018	5-7	-0.8
	2019	11-3	7.5	3.9 (+15.3)
Coach	Year	Record	SP+	Avg SP+
Luke	2017	6-6	11.6
	2018	5-7	9.8
	2019	4-8	2.9	8.1
Kiffin	2020	5-5	8.3	8.3 (+0.2)

If Kiffin actually did return to the Vols, it would be his fifth head coaching stop, six counting the Raiders. His work at Florida Atlantic was impressive, no doubt, immediately improving the Owls and earning a second 11-3 record two years later. Pete Carroll was always going to be a tough act to follow, and that’s been true for Kiffin, Sarkisian, and Helton. The job at Ole Miss (and Tennessee) is too small a sample size to know yet: in both cases, definitely better than the previous year he inherited, but not enough data to consider it an improvement on the program overall. You’d love to have seen what he did at UT or Ole Miss in year two before entrusting your program to him.

I think Kiffin would be a good hire, but it would be foolish to consider him the only good hire, or an outright better choice than many of the names above.

Sometimes you can fall a little harder than you should for a coach just because they have power five experience. Consider:

Tom Herman, Texas

Coach	Year	Record	SP+	Avg SP+
Strong	2014	6-7	9
	2015	5-7	3.7
	2016	5-7	10.6	7.8
Herman	2017	7-6	10.6
	2018	10-4	11.3
	2019	8-5	12
	2020	7-3	13.5	11.9 (+4.1)

Herman certainly had a big year in 2018. But overall, each of his teams weren’t significantly better than Charlie Strong’s first and last Texas squads. They did make small steps of progress in SP+ each year, but Herman also fell into the Butch Jones close game trap, and the best way to win close games remains not to play them. A +4 change in SP+ is similar to what Lance Leipold has at Buffalo, but the difference is how much his program has grown from year one until now. Herman’s, also similar to Jones at UT, never moved as fast as the powers that be at Texas probably felt it should have.

Finally, if the Vols go as big at head coach as they went at athletic director, here are the two names we thought would never consider this job:

Matt Campbell, Iowa State

Coach	Year	Record	SP+	Avg SP+
Rhoads	2013	3-9	-3.8
	2014	2-10	-7.9
	2015	3-9	-0.3	-4
Campbell	2016	3-9	0.7
	2017	8-5	7.5
	2018	8-5	7.9
	2019	7-6	12.6
	2020	9-3	18.7	9.5 (+13.5)

This is Point A to Point B to Point C. The record may have suggested treading water from year three to year four, but in 2019 Iowa State lost to #19 Iowa by one, at Baylor by two, Oklahoma State by seven, and at Oklahoma by one. This year they lost to Billy Napier’s Rajun Cajuns in the opener, 31-14…then beat Oklahoma, Texas, TCU, Baylor, lost to #6 Oklahoma State by three, and blew out the rest of the conference. They almost won the Big 12 title game, then beat Oregon by 17 in the Fiesta Bowl. Tennessee has never been as bad as where Iowa State was at the end of Paul Rhoads’ tenure, but they also haven’t been as good as Iowa State was this year since 2015, and before then not since Fulmer.

Luke Fickell, Cincinnati

Coach	Year	Record	SP+	Avg SP+
Tuberville	2014	9-4	6.9
	2015	7-6	5.3
	2016	4-8	-3.6	2.9
Fickell	2017	4-8	-6.4
	2018	11-2	5.4
	2019	11-3	9.1
	2020	9-1	19.9	7 (+4.1)

Fickell’s first year did not go well. Since then, Cincinnati has been a rocket ship. This year they beat Army by two touchdowns, won 42-13 at #16 SMU, beat Memphis 49-10, and almost got Georgia in the Peach Bowl. The overall growth isn’t as strong because of where the program still was two years before he arrived, and the way he struggled in year one. But if you group 2015-17 together and compare it to 2018-20, Fickell’s average SP+ jump is 13.1, on par with the best of the other major progress you can find on our list:

Coach	Avg SP+ Jump
Napier	14.7
Clark	14.1
Campbell	13.5
Chadwell	12
Heupel	9.5
Kiffin avg.	7.3
Malzahn	6.6
Leipold	4.6
Fickell	4.1
Herman	4.1

Again, those few caveats:

• Chadwell’s numbers are based on the smallest, weirdest data, with Coastal just joining FBS four years ago, and him serving as an interim that first year.
• Kiffin’s numbers are the average of his four jobs; his individual numbers range from 15.3 at Florida Atlantic to -7.4 at USC, with small, incomplete improvements in one year at UT and Ole Miss.
• Leipold’s progress is slowest and steadiest, and continued to gain momentum into year six.
• Fickell’s numbers are weighed down by a terrible first year and Tuberville still being good two years before he left.

I have no idea who Tennessee will hire. But I do think it’s more than fair to say anyone from this list would be an upgrade, and many of them – at least in SP+ – the most “proven” winner Tennessee hired in a long time.

The common denominator in conversations I’ve had with friends and family today: will we have the patience for what comes next?

Is there any other way to be?

I guess that’s always been the allure of Gruden, Freeze, Pearl’s return, and other Tennessee fairy tales: the corresponding myth of the quick fix. They’ll solve it right away!

But there is no right away here, in part because we’re not sure how deep the hole will go or which athletic director is going shopping for ladders.

Back when we were only discussing firing Jeremy Pruitt for on-field results, one of the most compelling arguments for change was the idea that the realistic candidate pool might actually work in Tennessee’s favor this time. Even when you take Hugh Freeze off the table, that list of names is still only short Steve Sarkisian at this point. The Vols didn’t miss out on any of those guys because they waited too long.

The question now becomes, how many of those guys would still say yes to this job?

In looking at all the hot boards this afternoon, it’s funny how, at least for me, my first impression is still stubbornly attached to who Tennessee was more than a dozen years ago: “This looks like our basketball hot boards!” Coastal Carolina. Louisiana. Charlotte. UAB. Buffalo. Those old false narratives – we’re Tennessee, we should aim higher and pay more – hold on with surprising strength considering their age. In reality, Tennessee’s last four hires came as fired NFL coach, Louisiana Tech, Cincinnati, and assistant at Alabama. The guy before that, another chapter coming to its end today, was an assistant at Tennessee.

For instance, if Tennessee hired Billy Napier – 28-11 overall with the Rajun Cajuns and 21-4 the last two years – he’d be the most proven candidate as a collegiate head coach the Vols hired since Johnny Majors. Butch Jones was 23-14 at Cincinnati, but only after following Brian Kelly, who went 34-6. Napier followed Mark Hudspeth, whose last three years at Louisiana went 4-8, 6-7, and 5-7.

But would Billy Napier say yes to this job right now? Would Gus Malzahn or Tom Herman?

How much of what we assume to be the list – current coaches from the Sun Belt, Conference USA, and the MAC, but all of them actually more proven winners and program builders on their own merits as head coaches than anyone we’ve hired recently – would say yes to being the head coach at Tennessee in 2021?

I love a good historical comparison, but I’m not sure there is one for where Tennessee is right now.

In the summer of 2019, we wrote on how Tennessee’s current absence from the final AP Top 20 – then 11 years, now 13 – was longer than any of the other 15 winningest programs had ever faced. In fact, the second-longest absence was Tennessee, 10 years from 1975-84. Toward the end of those ten years, there were quiet, steady steps of progress from Johnny Majors. Now the Vols, a baker’s dozen from the Top 20, may be at a new low.

We also know Tennessee is one of the seven teams in the “top half” of the SEC that seem capable of recruiting at a championship level, but the Vols are seventh of those seven already, trying to beat Florida/Georgia/Bama at a lesser version of their own game. The window was open for Butch Jones but his Vols couldn’t get through, and even though Jeremy Pruitt appears to have closed the gap from purely a talent standpoint, the window of opportunity is much smaller now thanks to the success of Kirby Smart and Dan Mullen in the division.

So yeah, it’s hard to win here right now. Maybe it’s harder now than ever. And it’s about to get harder.

What do we do with all that?

For now: patience. It’s the best available choice. Maybe the only one.

You’re a grown up, of course. You can do what you want. We’re ten months into a pandemic, we know good and well people don’t have to be anything, especially patient. Patience is hard.

But failing to learn it well usually ends up worse.

When the Vols lost to Arkansas, I wrote about transitioning our metaphor from wilderness to exile, assuming the Vols wouldn’t fire Jeremy Pruitt no matter what happened the rest of this season because of the pandemic. Turns out, there are things that will make them fire him, and those things make exile much more likely, which means I believe even more in what we said then: we’re going to be here for a season. The biblical sense, not the Fall 2021 sense. This is where we live right now. And a stiff neck will not get you out any faster.

In exile, you live your life. With purpose. Build houses and live in them. Increase, do not decrease. Seek the welfare of the city.

And do not listen to the prophets who tell you this will all be over soon. Do not listen when anyone tells you so-and-so is a sure thing; we should all know better by now that’s a lie. Be careful when giving your time and energies to those whose business interests are in keeping you agitated.

How do we live in exile? Purpose. Patience.

Seek the welfare of the city. Words matter. How we communicate matters. It all matters. And I think patience will matter most in the midst of this season. Patience, paradoxically, is the healthiest way out of exile.

Whoever Tennessee hires will need it.

And we will need it for and from each other.

Alabama opened as a 7-point favorite over Ohio State, and on the morning of the game, the line is now 8.5. What does the GRT Statsy Preview Machine have to say about that?

Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense for both teams

Alabama’s Scoring Offense this year: 48.2
Ohio State’s Scoring Offense this year: 43.4
Alabama’s Scoring Defense this year: 19
Ohio State’s Scoring Defense this year: 22

From the perspective of Alabama

The Ohio State scoring defense of 22 is most similar to the following prior Alabama opponents:

• Texas A&M 21.7
• Georgia 20

And Alabama’s offense cares not one bit: The Tide scored 52 points against Texas A&M and 41 points against Georgia, an astounding 223% of what those teams did against it entire slate of competition this season. That makes the estimated points for Alabama against Ohio State 49.1. Sheesh.

But . . . the Ohio State scoring offense of 43.4 is most similar to the following prior Alabama opponents:

• Florida 39.8
• Mississippi 39.2

Florida got 46 against Alabama, and Mississippi got 48, so the defense can be vulnerable. Combined, that’s 119% of normal, and it puts the estimated points for Ohio State against Alabama at 51.7. Well.

Estimated score: Alabama 49.1, Ohio State 51.7

From the perspective of Ohio State

The Alabama scoring defense of 19 is most similar to the following prior Ohio State opponents:

• Clemson 20.2
• Indiana 20.3

Ohio State scored 49 points against Clemson and 42 against Indiana, which is an equally-astounding 225% of normal for those teams. It puts the estimated points for Ohio State against Alabama at 42.8.

The Alabama scoring offense of 48.2 is most similar to the following prior Ohio State opponents:

• Clemson 43.5
• Penn State 29.8

Ohio State allowed only 28 points to Clemson and 25 to Penn State, 72% of what those teams usually did this season. That Penn State comp is actually the second-best comp, but it’s really not even close. But because it’s the (second-)best we have, we’ll use it. Estimated points for Alabama against Ohio State: 34.7.

Estimated score: Ohio State 42.8, Alabama 34.7

SPM Final Estimates

Combining the results from both perspectives, here’s what we get:

SPM Final estimated score: Alabama 41.9, Ohio State 47.3

SPM Final estimated spread: Ohio State -5.4

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 12.4

It’s odd for this to happen, but according to the Machine, this is a Category 3 game, meaning it feels good about that prediction. But read on.

Eyeball adjustments

Yikes, that just feels wrong, doesn’t it? I don’t think I’ll use the word “shocked,” but I was really, really surprised by that. So I ran the thing again, this time with all games as comps, rather than just the two “best” comps. In fact, I didn’t stop there; I ran the thing for 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 comps. The Machine picked Alabama in every single one of those scenarios, most by right around the Vegas opening line of 7 points. I will note, for whatever it’s worth, that it also never got above the current line of 8.5.

So the question is, is there something wrong with those two “best” comps, or is it actually on to something?

The primary difference between those two comps and all of the others is that the Alabama defense got torched, giving up 48 points to Ole Miss early in the season but also giving up 46 points to Florida late. Nobody else got over 24 points the entire season. They held Notre Dame to only 14 in the most recent game. The Irish offense averages 33 points per game.

The question then is this: Is Ohio State’s offense like Florida’s (and Ole Miss’) or Notre Dame’s? Are they going to put up points at will, or are they going to find it much more difficult to put up points tonight? I don’t feel good about a prediction either way on that question. Maybe they just get their usual output?

Based on all of that, I’m going with Alabama 45, Ohio State 42.

Other predictions from other systems

As I said earlier, Vegas had Alabama as a 7-point favorite to open. With an over/under of 76, that’s a prediction of something like Alabama 42, Ohio State 35.

According to the SP+ rankings, Bill Connelly appears to like Alabama by 4.3.

Bottom line

The Statsy Preview Machine is waving the danger flag for Alabama by pointing to potent Ole Miss and Florida offenses actually being almost able to keep up with Alabama’s own potent offense. It likes Ohio State by 5 points. I have more confidence in Alabama’s defense than that, so I think the Tide win, but I will buy in to them not covering either the opening 7-point spread or the current 8.5-point spread.

What do y’all think?

In the midst of what feels like perpetual uncertainty, a surprise: the Vols picked up a transfer portal commitment from Virginia Tech quarterback Hendon Hooker. I live in the Blacksburg “metro”, and have spent nine of the last 15 years in southwest Virginia. I’m by no means an expert on the Hokies, just someone who watches them more closely and interacts more often with their fans than the average Tennessee fan. You can find good analysis on Hooker’s game out there – here’s a few thoughts on how he got there.

Virginia Tech’s stability at head coach under Frank Beamer manifested itself into great stability at quarterback. There’s a long line of multi-year starters in the post-Vick era: Bryan Randall, Sean Glennon, Tyrod Taylor, Logan Thomas, Michael Brewer. As Justin Fuente took over in 2016, however, the pattern breaks. The first year the Hokies went the juco route with Jerod Evans, who we saw in Bristol. They won their division and gave Clemson a scare in the title game, Fuente was ACC Coach of the Year, all was well. Evans actually set some VT passing records…and then declared for the draft, where he was not selected, and has yet to play a down in the NFL.

In 2017 the Hokies went with freshman Josh Jackson. They again finished the regular season 9-3 with losses to Clemson and a good Miami team, and fell to #14 Oklahoma State in the bowl game. All was well. Then Jackson broke his leg in the third game of the 2018 season, what ended up being a catastrophic 49-35 loss to Old Dominion, maybe the first sign of some real defensive trouble under Fuente. Jackson ultimately transferred to Maryland.

Hendon Hooker was a freshman in 2018, but when Jackson went down the job went to Kansas transfer Ryan Willis. The Hokies were game against Notre Dame in a loss, then suffered four straight defeats in which they gave up 49, 31, 52, and 38 points. Willis again had the job at the start of the 2019 season, which opened with a loss to Boston College, close wins over Old Dominion and Furman, and a 45-10 beatdown in Blacksburg at the hands of David Cutcliffe. At this point, as people were commenting on the heat of Jeremy Pruitt’s seat after Georgia State, BYU, and Florida early in year two, the sudden temperature of Fuente’s seat in year four made for a helpful comparison: Pruitt shouldn’t be in trouble after 15 games, this is what being in trouble actually looks like, etc.

Then Virginia Tech went to Hendon Hooker.

In his first start at Miami, the Hokies scored 42 points thanks to five turnovers and won by a touchdown. Hooker was 10-of-20 for 184 yards and three touchdowns, plus 76 yards on the ground. His numbers were similar in a win over Rhode Island, and got off to a good start against North Carolina before a familiar theme emerged: he got hurt in the first half, missing the rest of a six-overtime win over the Tar Heels. And he also missed Virginia Tech’s trip to South Bend the following week.

He returned to guide a three-game winning streak over Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Pittsburgh, never throwing for more than 260 yards but also never throwing an interception. His rushing totals became less productive – 7 for 10 against Georgia Tech, 20 for 27 against Pitt – but the Hokies were winning and their defense was playing well again.

In the last two games of 2019, the Hokies played wild affairs with Virginia and Kentucky. Hooker was 18-of-30 for 311 yards against the Cavs, but threw his first two interceptions of the year, the first on a hail mary at the end of the first half. The last one came with VT driving to take the lead in Virginia territory; he was also sacked three times in a row on the next drive. This is a theme you’ll hear on Hooker: if the defense knows you’re throwing it, he can struggle.

He was better on the ground against Kentucky in the bowl (12 for 50), but the Cats did a good job stopping him through the air (12-of-22 for 110).

Obviously, you take everything in 2020 with a grain of salt. Covid testing showed an unrelated medical issue that kept Hooker out of VT’s first two games of the year, wins over NC State and Duke. Oregon transfer Braxton Burmeister ran an efficient offense and stayed at the helm against North Carolina, where the Hokies lost 56-45 in a game both QBs played in. From there it was back to Hooker, who was sensational on the ground in a win over Boston College (18 for 164). He went for 98 more rushing yards against Wake Forest the next week, but threw three interceptions and the Hokies lost. The next week, however, he was 10-of-10 passing for 183 yards and ran for another 68 in a 42-35 win over Louisville.

Against Liberty, Hooker was again really good: 156 yards rushing, 20-of-27 for 217 through the air with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The Hokies lost a 38-35 shootout. Miami’s defense was better at taking all that away, beating Virginia Tech 25-24. And then the defense totally collapsed against Pittsburgh in a 47-14 defeat. Hooker again wasn’t bad statistically, but VT was never really in the game after halftime.

Then more weirdness: against Clemson, Hooker fumbled a snap on the opening drive and looked shaken, so Fuente went to Burmeister. He led a touchdown drive, so he stayed in the game. He was later removed for a scoop and score fumble, but the Hokies still trailed only 24-10 and had the ball in Clemson territory when Hooker returned. But he fumbled again, and appeared to have a medical issue on the sideline where he was shaking and “couldn’t get warm.” He did not play in the season finale against Virginia.

Had he thrown it enough to qualify, Hooker’s 2019 passer rating would’ve trailed only Trevor Lawrence among ACC quarterbacks. The Josh Dobbs comparisons I’ve seen are most fitting for pre-2016 Dobbs, the guy we wondered if they’d ever let him throw it deep down the field. That answer turned out to be an emphatic yes. Hooker’s dual threat skill set is something the 2020 Vols did not have on the roster, and he can certainly be efficient and mistake-free. It’s when defenses put him in third-and-long or he had to get them downfield in a hurry without his legs that Hooker struggled in particular. But there is no doubt potential and far more experience than anything the Vols will bring back next year.

After two weeks of right around 60% on all games, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine took a pie in the face this week, going only 7-12 (36.84%) overall, 1-5 (16.67%) in Category 2, and 0-4 ( let me see . . . 0%) in Category 3. For the season, the Machine is now 267-235 (53.19%) in Category 1, 100-83 (54.64%) in Category 2, and 54-43 (55.67%) in Category 3.

Because the Machine struck out on Category 3 games, it also struck out on both “Category 4” games. For the seven weeks we’ve been tracking Cat 4 games, they are 19-5 (79.16%).

The Machine had an identical result for all games using mid-week spreads: 7-12 (36.84%).

SP+, meanwhile, had a solid week, going 11-8 (58%) officially, using its own mid-week spreads. For the season, SP+ is 258-243-7 (52%). It had the same results against opening spreads (11-8, 57.89%) and is now 280-222 (55.78%) for the season against those spreads.

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for the 2020 college football bowl season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, in case it’s not perfectly clear from the above results, spreads matter.

GRT SPM 2020 Bowl Picks

Ignore the Home and Away column headings again this week, as bowls are all neutral site games. I’ve accounted for them in the calculations, but haven’t denoted them in the table.

Bowl season features seven Category 3 games, those that the GRT Statsy Preview Machine likes particularly well. Of those, the following five make the Category 4 cut because they also agree with SP+:

• Iowa vs. Missouri (Iowa -13.5)
• Tulsa vs. Mississippi State (Tulsa -1.5)
• Marshall vs. Buffalo (Marshall +3.5)
• North Carolina State vs. Kentucky (North Carolina State +2.5)
• Texas A&M vs. North Carolina (North Carolina +5.5)

I’m really interested to see how the Statsy Preview Machine does in this weird season where there were very few, if any, data points for cross-conference play. I’m hoping that its focus on how a team does relative to what its opponents usually do does a good job of predicting how it will do against any opponent regardless of conference affiliation or schedule strength. We’ll see.

Well, a weird year gets weirder: the College Football Playoff field was announced yesterday, which means bowls start (checks calendar)…today. So jump in our free bowl pick ’em with confidence points at Fun Office Pools.

Today’s first game is at 2:30 PM ET, but as always we’ve made the earliest kick worth the fewest confidence points. So if you’re coming to this late, you’ll only be one point behind.

Good luck!