Category Archives: Football

There were 18 coaching changes on the FBS level heading into the 2021 season; that number jumped to 29 on the carousel’s latest round this winter.

Timing – not often Tennessee’s friend these last 15 years – is definitely on our side in this regard. Last year, the Vols rode the carousel with Texas and Auburn among major powers, plus South Carolina as our contemporary. The only other power five openings were Arizona, Illinois, Kansas, and Vanderbilt. Boise State came open when Bryan Harsin went to Auburn, UCF when Josh Heupel came here. That’s about it.

The 2022 year one cycle includes Florida, LSU, Miami, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon, TCU, USC, Virginia Tech, and Washington. That’s ten schools who were in the hunt for a national championship at some point during the BCS/CFP era. Then add in Duke, Texas Tech, Virginia, and Washington State in the power five pool.

You need timing to work in your favor to help get these things right. And then, you know, you need to get it right.

It’s impossible to know anything for sure after one year. We’ve seen that play out at Tennessee before. We regularly use Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings on our site, both because they value every snap, and because they’re helpful in separating two teams with similar records.

Here’s a look at Tennessee’s four previous year one seasons in SP+:

Coach	Year	Prev. Record	Prev. SP+	Year One	Year One SP+	Wins Change	SP+ Change
Jeremy Pruitt	2018	4-8	1.2	5-7	5.5	1	4.3
Butch Jones	2013	5-7	15.1	5-7	5.1	0	-10
Derek Dooley	2010	7-6	16.2	6-7	7.7	-1	-8.5
Lane Kiffin	2009	5-7	12	7-6	16.2	2	4.2

This has gone one of two ways the last four times we’ve tried it. Lane Kiffin and Jeremy Pruitt were able to take a step forward in year one, for two very different reasons. Kiffin’s team was solid, which you’d expect just two years removed from Atlanta, and more competitive than their 2008 predecessors. Pruitt’s first team had the luxury of following the program’s low point; even though they lost six games by 25+ points, it was still an improvement over 2017.

Year one for Derek Dooley and Butch Jones took a step backwards in overall competitiveness. Both of those seasons followed two of the better teams we’ve seen around here in the last 15 years. Kiffin’s one-year stint automatically put Dooley’s first team behind the eight ball, and the 2010 Vols finished 8.5 points worse in SP+. Dooley’s final team was competitive with almost everyone, but couldn’t beat any of the ranked foes they faced. Meanwhile, Butch Jones’ first team the next year beat #11 South Carolina, but suffered a handful of blowout losses, ultimately finishing 10 points worse in SP+.

Again, no guarantees after one year: Butch Jones turned in a -10 in 2013, but led easily the best Tennessee team from 2008-2021 two years later by any metric. Some situations just naturally lead to more difficult year ones (or year zeroes, as Derek Dooley would say). And that’s what we thought Josh Heupel was walking into: NCAA investigation, rough finish the year before, late to the carousel, massive transfer portal exodus.

How did Heupel actually do?

Let’s compare him to the rest of the freshman coaching class of 2021.

Uh oh, we changed coaches in the summer

Coach	Team	2020 Record	2020 SP+	2021 Record	2021 SP+	Wins Change	SP+ Change
Tim Albin	Ohio	2-1	-2.3	3-9	-11.6	1	-9.3
Maurice Linguist	Buffalo	6-1	5.3	4-8	-9.5	-2	-14.8

I don’t recommend it. Both of these guys followed local legends too: Frank Solich had been at Ohio since 2005. Lance Leipold won two division titles and finished the 2020 season in the Top 25 at Buffalo. As a result, both of these programs were significantly worse in 2021. No surprise here.

A missed first step

Coach	Team	2020 Record	2020 SP+	2021 Record	2021 SP+	Wins Change	SP+ Change
Will Hall	Southern Miss	3-7	-9.1	3-9	-14.2	0	-5.1
Gus Malzahn	UCF	6-4	10.9	9-4	4.8	3	-6.1
Steve Sarkisian	Texas	7-3	16.4	5-7	8.5	-2	-7.9
Butch Jones	Arkansas State	4-7	-9.1	2-10	-17.9	-2	-8.8

Again, some struggles make more sense than others. Jay Hopson resigned after one game of the 2020 season at Southern Miss, an unusual situation Will Hall inherited this fall.

The other three in this group all brought previous power five experience at championship contenders, with Sarkisian being the hottest commodity in the cycle. And yet, play-for-play, all three teams went backwards in year one. The last time UCF lost 4+ games in the regular season was 2016. Tom Herman’s worst season at Texas was 7-6 in his first year in 2017; Charlie Strong’s two 5-7 campaigns in Austin were far more competitive than what Sarkisian turned in. And Butch Jones got off to a similar start in his first year at Arkansas State in SP+ as he did at Tennessee, though the won-loss record is certainly worse.

Again, no guarantees here – Texas did finish fifth nationally in recruiting – but these were all backward first steps.

About the same

Coach	Team	2020 Record	2020 SP+	2021 Record	2021 SP+	Wins Change	SP+ Change
Terry Bowden	UL Monroe	0-10	-22.1	4-7	-20.3	4	1.8
Bryan Harsin	Auburn	6-5	11.4	6-7	11	0	-0.4
Clark Lea	Vanderbilt	0-9	-18.1	2-10	-19.4	2	-1.3
Lance Leipold	Kansas	0-9	-18.4	2-10	-19.7	2	-1.3
Jedd Fisch	Arizona	0-5	-9.1	1-11	-12.6	1	-3.5

Terry Bowden is the biggest winner of this group, which includes a lot of, “Wait and see.” Vanderbilt, Kansas, and Arizona were all winless in 2020, and combined to win five games in 2021. The situation at Auburn probably deserves its own category; in SP+ and in total wins they Bryan Harsin’s first year was almost identical to Gus Malzahn’s. Stay tuned.

A good first step

Coach	Team	2020 Record	2020 SP+	2021 Record	2021 SP+	Wins Change	SP+ Change
Charles Huff	Marshall	7-3	3	7-6	8	0	5
Andy Avalos	Boise State	5-2	5.4	7-5	9.4	2	4

Marshall is an interesting case study, 7-3 in Doc Holliday’s final season, 7-6 in Charles Huff’s first. But the Thundering Herd lost four one-possession games last year, and were dominant in several of their seven victories. Boise State fans probably aren’t satisfied at 7-5, but three of those were one-possession losses and the Broncos also beat BYU and Fresno State on the road. If form holds here, these programs are off to better starts than their win/loss total might suggest.

A really good first step

Coach	Team	2020 Record	2020 SP+	2021 Record	2021 SP+	Wins Change	SP+ Change
Kane Wommack	South Alabama	4-7	-16.1	5-7	-7.2	1	8.9
Bret Bielema	Illinois	2-6	-4.1	5-7	4.3	3	8.4
Shane Beamer	South Carolina	2-8	-2.9	7-6	3.9	5	6.8

Kane Wommack’s first-year squad almost got both Billy Napier (20-18) and Jamey Chadwell (27-21 OT). They also lost a four overtime game at Texas State and by a touchdown at Troy. Bielema recovered nicely from a 1-4 start to beat Penn State and Minnesota on the road.

And credit Shane Beamer, whose Gamecocks lost to the Vols and Texas A&M by 25 and 30, and almost lost to Vanderbilt in a three-week span in October. Since then, they beat Florida and Auburn, and ran away from North Carolina in the Mayo Bowl. It was a really good year one, good enough to earn him a share of the Steve Spurrier award for best year-one coach with…

A transformational first step

Coach	Team	2020 Record	2020 SP+	2021 Record	2021 SP+	Wins Change	SP+ Change
Blake Anderson	Utah State	1-5	-16.3	11-3	0.1	10	16.4
Josh Heupel	Tennessee	3-7	4.6	7-6	17.5	4	12.9

First, shout out to Blake Anderson. A +10 in wins is twice as good as anyone else on this list, and would be most years. Along the way they smoked San Diego State for the Mountain West title. No complaints about his name at the top of this list.

But Josh Heupel is clearly above everyone else.

He followed one of the toughest and least competitive years at Tennessee with one of the most competitive teams we’ve had here in 14 years. In SP+, the 2022 Vols are the second-best team in Knoxville since 2008, bested only by the 2015 team. The Vols went 1-3 in one-possession games, with two of those losses to New Year’s Six teams from Pittsburgh and Ole Miss.

One forward-looking piece of good news here: when we get overly cautious about the Vols being #9 in 2022 SP+ projections? Tennessee’s rating there is 18.7: just 1.2 points better than last season. The model doesn’t project the Vols to be drastically better than they were last season, because it already believes the Vols were really good.

Again, no guarantees after one year. But not only did Josh Heupel do it better in 2021 than any year one we’ve seen around here, and every other first-year coach last season but one? His team also was better play-for-play than every Tennessee squad save one in the last 14 years. For first impressions, you can’t ask for much more. And it’s created a hope based in performance as much as possibility.

Here’s one thing it feels like is happening to Tennessee more often than it actually is: the Vols get to third-and-short, go fast, and get stopped because defenses know what’s coming.

Even in Josh Heupel’s fast-paced offense, no two games are exactly alike. It feels like the Vols do that on third-and-short a lot because against Purdue, Tennessee had fifteen snaps with 1-3 yards to gain on third or fourth down. That’s fifteen opportunities to pick up a first down in short yardage (via ESPN’s play-by-play data).

By comparison, the Vols never faced that situation against Kentucky.

That’s wild.

It feels like, at least to me, that the Vols get in that situation and just go zone read, with the read to the back more often than not. It’s burned into our brains because that was Tennessee’s last offensive snap in the Music City Bowl. But against Purdue, on those 15 snaps the Vols ran it 12 times, with Hendon Hooker keeping on four of them. He also had a first quarter completion to JaVonta Payton, an incomplete pass in that dreadful second quarter, and the incomplete go route to Cedric Tillman with the jersey pull.

All told, the Vols converted eight of those 15 third-or-fourth-and-shorts against Purdue. Those plays always feel like you should convert them closer to 100% of the time if it’s your team with the ball, but of course, that’s not how it works either. In overtime, Tennessee faced this situation four times, and was stopped thrice. Jaylen Wright didn’t make it on 3rd-and-1 at the 16, leading to Hooker’s fourth down scramble. And then Wright got two yards from the three, and “no gain” from the one to end the sequence.

Was it fatigue? Coming into the year, I assumed the Vols would run many more plays than usual, and questions like, “Who is the fourth wide receiver?” would be relevant. And indeed, the Vols ran 952 plays, currently 13th most in college football among teams playing 13 games. That’s 73.2 plays per game for the offense. But the Vols didn’t necessarily go deep into their bench: not sure how much of an option that actually was on the offensive line, and the starting receivers were healthy all year.

However, the Vols ran 104 plays against Purdue, by far a season high. Number two on the list: Bowling Green, 88 plays. I’m gonna say we were slightly more fresh in the season opener than the season finale. So perhaps some of what we saw at the end of the game was the kind of offensive fatigue we’re used to seeing from our defense.

That side of the ball ends the year having faced 1,011 snaps (77.8 per game). It trails only Michigan State’s defense (1,025, also playing a single overtime period in 2021) among teams playing 13 games. By comparison, last year the defense faced 69.9 plays per game. The last time we went bowling in 2019, it was 66.8.

But say this for the defense: whatever fatigue they’re facing, they’ve gotten it done when it counted at the end of almost every game. In Tennessee’s one-possession games against Pittsburgh, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Purdue, the Vol defense made stops at the end of the game to put the ball back in the offense’s hands to tie or win.

The offense came up short in those moments in the regular season, but did have the two big scores to tie it in the final minutes against Purdue, before the missed field goal and the goal line stop.

All that to say: perhaps the issue against Purdue in short yardage was more fatigue-based than we’re giving it credit for. The Vols need depth, obviously. VolQuest had a good point over the weekend about the difference in Jeff Brohm’s program in year five and ours in year one being, in large part, just simple depth.

The short-yardage failures stand out against Pittsburgh and Purdue at the end of the game. They stand out against Alabama and Georgia because the Vols went headfirst into better talent. They had no opportunity to even exist against Kentucky, a ridiculous notion. And the Vols didn’t face a third down of any kind until the Missouri game was out of hand.

The Vols also made short yardage work to their extreme advantage against South Carolina, converting four third-and-shorts on their opening drive, softening the floodgates.

Overall, I think Tennessee is better in short yardage than my brain gave them credit for while watching the Purdue game.

And I know the Vols just simply need more bodies, on both sides of the ball, as they continue to find themselves in games with this many snaps.

Tennessee played four one-possession games this year. They went 1-3 in them against teams that are currently 11-2, 10-2, 9-3, and 9-4. In the three losses, specific calls that should’ve/could’ve gone the other way stand out:

• Against Pittsburgh, a horrendous spot to leave the ball short after a third down run by Hendon Hooker with seven minutes to play and the Vols down 41-34. What should’ve been 1st-and-Goal at the 2 was instead 4th-and-1 at the 3. The Vols failed to convert on fourth down.
• Against Ole Miss, Matt Corral’s forward progress was ruled stopped on what looked like a scoop and score for Tennessee in the first half. In the fourth quarter, a completion on 4th-and-24 with 54 seconds left was ruled short of the marker.
• Today in overtime, Jaylen Wright was ruled stopped on forward progress before he stretched the ball into the end zone on 4th-and-Goal, which he did before the whistle blew.

Josh Heupel’s first season ends at 7-6; “Three bad calls from 10-3!” is an easy narrative. The truth is, the meat and potatoes of how Tennessee has grown this season are very much already in the pot, regardless of today’s aftertaste. It’s also true that Tennessee had additional chances to win those first two games, throwing an interception against Pittsburgh and just missing a touchdown pass from Joe Milton against Ole Miss. In that department, today was actually some form of progress: Tennessee’s offense, which failed to make the plays at the end of those two games and Kentucky (which the defense sealed), scored a pair of touchdowns in the final five minutes (plus one in overtime, some will add) to tie the game twice. The Vols had good calls in most of those situations tonight.

The Vols also had 15 penalties for 128 yards. Purdue had 5 for 61. There’s, uh, an imbalance there, one you might’ve particularly noticed in the pass interference department.

We played this game 11 seasons ago, an inspiring year one from Derek Dooley meeting a cruel end in Nashville. That one felt worse to me in the moment; I was at that game, and watched this one from my living room, so that might be part of it. We did get an NCAA rule change out of it; maybe we’ll get one here on forward progress or, even better, the exaggeration of injury.

Josh Heupel said the refs came up to him tonight and said they think there needs to be a rule change with the fake injuries.

— Ben McKee (@benmckee14) December 31, 2021

You want to say, “Hey, we need to be better than to get beat by bad calls against Pitt, Ole Miss, and Purdue.” But again, those teams all won between 9-11 games this year, 12 if Pitt wins tonight. In the long run, the Vols can make progress by bringing in more talent than those programs, for sure.

But for now, Tennessee ends a promising 2021 campaign with an old reminder I don’t think this coaching staff actually needs: the best way to win close games is not to play them. Next time around in year two, can the Vols be good enough to not get beat by bad calls against teams not named Alabama or Georgia?

Tonight was a good reminder that the margins are still thin. Going forward, can the Vols continue to improve fast enough to widen them against most of their schedule?

There will never be guarantees. Tennessee needs help in the secondary: Alontae Taylor is already gone, and Theo Jackson will join him, leaving much of tonight’s group that gave up 11.1 yards per pass to Purdue (plus three picks). Tennessee needs to figure out what it’s doing in the short yardage run game, which struggled to find success. Tennessee needs to keep recruiting.

But the Vols made a ton of forward progress this year. If that continues, we’ll get beat by “forward progress” less often.

Go Vols.

Sundays are for good news:

Looking forward to many more… Let’s run it back @Vol_Football pic.twitter.com/0EWgFiaett

— Hendon Hooker (@henhook2) December 12, 2021

With that, the Vols are a win in the Music City Bowl away from one of the most enjoyable off-seasons we’ve seen around here in the post-Fulmer era.

One way to quantify what Hendon Hooker’s return is worth? The records he has a chance to set or approach in Nashville, despite only starting 10 of Tennessee’s 12 regular season games. There’s plenty to add to in 2022…but this is a pretty good start:

(thanks, as always, to Tennessee’s media guide, SportSource Analytics, and Sports Reference)

Single Season Tennessee Records

Yards Per Attempt

• Hooker: 9.8
• Current Record: Peyton Manning 1996 (8.7)

Something would have to go spectacularly wrong for Hooker not to get this one. In the last three decades, only two Vol quarterbacks ended the year with more than 8.5 yards per passing attempt: Peyton Manning in 1996 (8.7), and Erik Ainge in 2006 (8.6). Hooker is rocking 9.8 on 261 passing attempts. That’s tied for third in the nation, and tied for first (with C.J. Stroud) among QBs with more than 250 passing attempts.

Completion Percentage

• Hooker: 69%
• Current Record: Erik Ainge 2006 (67%)

Jarrett Guarantano had a shot at this number headed into the final two games of the 2018 season…and it did not go well. But Hooker can stay atop this leaderboard with another solid performance against Purdue. His lowest total of the year was actually his last outing (10-of-18, 55.6%). But the one time his attempts had to go way up against Georgia (37; his second-highest on the year was 28 at Alabama), Hooker still completed 64.9% of his passes against the Bulldogs.

Interception Percentage (200+ attempts)

• Hooker: 1.15%
• Current Record: Peyton Manning 1995 (1.05%)

This is the most impressive one to me. Manning’s number is the SEC record among quarterbacks with 300+ passing attempts. Hooker would need to throw it 39 times to get there, which seems unlikely, but again, he only started 10 games. Manning threw four interceptions on 380 passes. If Hooker doesn’t throw a pick against Purdue, he needs 24 passes to tie Manning, 25 to surpass him.

Appearances on Top X Lists

Passing Touchdowns

• Hooker: 26, currently 7th

If Hooker throws a touchdown pass in the Music City Bowl, he’ll tie Casey Clausen ’03, Jonathan Crompton ’09, and Josh Dobbs ’16 for fourth on Tennessee’s single-season list with 27. There’s a jump from there, but if Hooker goes wild and throws four touchdown passes to get to 30, he’ll become just the fourth Vol QB to do so in a single season: Peyton Manning ’97 (36), Tyler Bray ’12 (34), and Erik Ainge ’07 (31).

Passing Yards

• Hooker: 2,567, currently 12th

He needs 233 yards through the air for a Top 10 season at UT. In doing so, he would pass the greatest single seasons from Andy Kelly (1991) and Jonathan Crompton (2009). He’s already passed the best individual seasons from Heath Shuler (1993) and Tee Martin (1999). If you want to really feel old and see how football has changed:

• Heath Shuler 1993: 184-of-285 (64.6%) for 2,354 yards (8.3 ypa), 25 TDs, 8 INTs, plus 76 rushing yards and 3 TDs. Vols averaged 42 points per game.
• Hendon Hooker 2021: 180-of-261 (69%) for 2,567 yards (9.8 ypa), 26 TDs, 3 INTs, plus 561 rushing yards and 5 TDs. Vols average 39 points per game.

Shuler was the Heisman runner-up in 1993.

Rushing Yards by a QB

• Hooker: 561, currently 4th

He’s not going to get Josh Dobbs’ record from 2016 (831). But if Hooker runs for 110 yards, he’ll pass Dobbs’ 2015 season for second place on this list. And again, in just 10 games started going into the bowl. Dobbs ran for 64 yards per game in 2016, and was only sacked 25 times. Hooker is at 51 yards per game in his 10 starts plus Pittsburgh, but Tennessee quarterbacks have been sacked 42 times this year.

There’s a whole list he can go after in 2022, at Tennessee and beyond. Most notably, there are only four 3,000 yard seasons at Tennessee: two for Manning, one for Bray, and one for Ainge.

But he’s already off to a sensational start. Pay it off in Nashville, and there will be lots and lots of word count on Hendon Hooker for the next eight months.

Go Vols.

A big congrats to Krusher, who took our regular season confidence points trophy with a record of 194-76 straight up and 2,188 confidence points. That was just enough to get past GeorgeMonkey (2,183), with Jahiegel and wedflatrock (2,178) tying for third. Rounding out the Top 10 are several old friends from the Rocky Top Talk days: keeps corn in a jar, PAVolFan, Orange on Orange, birdjam, crafdog, and memphispete. Congrats all!

We move now to the bowls: 43 games on the docket, including the national championship, between December 17 and January 10. That means plenty of room for continued chaos with confidence points in our pick ’em contest, which as always, you can join free at Fun Office Pools. Looking forward to celebrating football from the Bahamas Bowl to the title game this holiday season – the pool is open, come on in.

Two years and at least two lifetimes ago, Tennessee almost went back to the Music City Bowl. The last minute switch to the Gator Bowl was a welcome one, carrying January prestige and tradition.

I don’t know if there’s a clear answer to the idea of that switch this year; leave the opponents the same and you do get a shot at a ranked foe from Wake Forest. I do know it’s good for our mental health to look forward, not back, so I’m glad to not be writing on how to stop the Clawfense, now that it’s had enough time.

But with college football in flux, I also think so many of these traditions are what we make of them. The New Year’s Six stretches back to December 30, the same day the Vols and Boilermakers will meet in Nashville. Even the Gator Bowl is on the 31st this season. And the league office seemed true to its word, at least this season: rewarding Top 25 Kentucky, Arkansas, and Texas A&M with the slots typically thought of as more prestigious is a decision I fully respect. It makes the most sense for this Tennessee team to be in Nashville at the end of this season.

There are all these words that go in this next blank about how we weren’t sure we’d be anywhere at the start of this season, and weren’t sure how long it’d be until we were anywhere or who we’d be there with around 11 months ago. The work Josh Heupel and these guys have done in one year gets one more data point, a 13th game with a chance to get an eighth win. Purdue may not feel like an opponent that can elevate the narrative, but it can certainly reinforce it. And most importantly, it can continue to build the path to the future for this program.

We’ll say more about Heupel along the way, both before and after this game 25 days from now. Whatever is left to build in this season, Purdue and Jeff Brohm are a fitting opponent. If Heupel gets to 8-5, he’ll best the year one records of Kiffin (7-6), Dooley (6-7), Jones (5-7) and Pruitt (5-7). Meanwhile, Brohm has Purdue at eight wins right now for the first time since 2007, the same year we use as the “remember when” benchmark. If they beat us to get to nine, it’ll be the first time since 2003 (shout out Kyle Orton & Jim Chaney).

Purdue had two separate fortnights of beating a Top 5 team by double digits, getting in the poll, getting blown out by another good team, and getting thrown out of the poll. They won at #2 Iowa 24-7 on October 16, jumped into the poll at #25, then got busted up by Wisconsin 30-13 at home the next week. On November 6, they beat #3 Michigan State 40-29. Back in the poll at #19, then they went to Ohio State, where they lost 59-31, back out of the poll. They’re 30th in receiving votes, so a win in Nashville could get them their first ranked finish since 2003.

It’s now year five for Brohm, who you’ll remember maybe/maybe not considering a jump to Tennessee after year one in the midst of 2017’s disaster. Purdue was so thoroughly non-competitive under his predecessor, he was able to make significant strides even going 17-21 in his first three seasons. We used Brohm as a template for one of our favorite exercises during our coaching search last season: progress over predecessors in SP+. And in that regard, this fall he’s looked to move Purdue from Point B to Point C.

The Vols were combustible and self-destructive under previous administrations, but they weren’t flat out non-competitive year-over-year like Purdue, so Heupel’s climb wasn’t quite as steep in that regard. Coming into the year, we thought getting from Point A to Point B would just be putting a better product on the field than three of the last four seasons. Instead, Heupel and this team gave us one of the best seasons we’ve seen at Tennessee in 14 years post-Fulmer. For us to start thinking about Point C at a much faster rate, the Vols need a strong finish. And Nashville should be a friendly venue.

When I think back to that 2019 bowl, it was the final performance for Jauan Jennings, Marquez Callaway, Daniel Bituli, Nigel Warrior, and Darrell Taylor. These were guys who stayed through turmoil, led by example, and really saved the 2019 season when we were such a mess that September. Beating Indiana in that winning streak, especially in dramatic fashion, was a nice send-off. But what you really wanted for them was for what they did to be the start of something, a link in a chain that held strong. Instead, Jeremy Pruitt’s chain went all to pieces in 2020.

For all the guys who are playing their last game at Tennessee against Purdue, I’m thrilled they got the chance to experience 2021. You want to send them out the right way. And if we do, we’ll feel even more that they might be remembered not just for an 8-5 season, but for being the first link in a new chain. One that ultimately stretches back to the kind of football that regularly shows up in January.

This year has been a joy to watch. And if we finish if off the right way, we’ll spend an off-season feeling like the future will be too.

Go Vols.

What’s a good distraction while we watch the coaching carousel spin? Here are the latest round of bowl projections, with only the championship games left to play.

In the SEC, three teams are locked into the College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six. I don’t see any amount of weirdness that would keep Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss out of that equation. If Pitt beats Wake Forest to win the ACC, four of Tennessee’s five losses will have come to teams in the CFP/NY6.

The Citrus Bowl is next, and will have their pick of #23 Arkansas (8-4), #24 Texas A&M (8-4), and #25 Kentucky (9-3). The Wildcats’ win over Louisville may not have helped Tennessee in the bowl equation, but it does present the opportunity for the Vols to get just their seventh win over a team that finishes the year ranked in the last 14 seasons:

• 2011 #25 Cincinnati
• 2013 #4 South Carolina
• 2015 #23 Northwestern
• 2016 #14 Florida
• 2016 #16 Virginia Tech
• 2018 #12 Kentucky

Is there an outcome in Orlando that helps Tennessee the most? Officially or unofficially, the league office isn’t going to reward a 7-5 team over a 9-3 team. If the Cats are getting preference over us either way, I’d say let’s get them out of the way and send them to the Citrus Bowl.

That then brings us to the Group of Six: Outback, Gator, Music City, Mayo, Liberty, Texas. Louisville’s win over Kentucky was almost certainly the final blow for any flickering Outback Bowl hopes. But we have seen Tennessee get in the mix after that in various projections.

In fact, at this point I can’t find anyone projecting Tennessee to the Liberty or Texas Bowls. These things are always unpredictable, but the Vols sure seem like they’re headed to the Gator, Music City, or Mayo Bowl.

Of the three, the Gator certainly carries the most prestige, though it is on December 31 and not January 1 this year. The Music City, of course, carries the best travel option for the largest percentage of Tennessee’s fan base. And the Mayo Bowl would come with some newness, as the Vols have never played in the Belk/Mayo game; Tennessee was in downtown Charlotte to open the 2018 season against West Virginia.

When you break these three down, much of your preference is going to fall to who we’re playing. Here are the projected opponents in the Gator, Music City, and Mayo Bowls from seven sources; Tennessee’s projection is listed in bold:

	Gator	Music City	Mayo
ESPN Bonagura	Wake Forest	Penn State	Miami
ESPN Schlabach	Clemson	Purdue	Virginia
CBS	Wake Forest	Minnesota	Virginia
College Football News	Wake Forest	Purdue	Virginia
247 Sports	Clemson	Minnesota	North Carolina
The Athletic	Wake Forest	Purdue	NC State
Athlon	Clemson	Purdue	Virginia

The most desirable outcome – Clemson in the Gator Bowl – doesn’t fall Tennessee’s way in any of these. But that doesn’t make it impossible. I will say, if Wake Forest beats Pittsburgh in the ACC title game, the Vols aren’t going to be matched up with the Panthers again. The Cheez-It Bowl has the ACC’s first pick after the NY6, then the Gator, then the Mayo. So a Wake win in the ACC title game could increase the likelihood of Vols vs Clemson…but could also increase the likelihood of Vols in the Music City.

What might feel like the second most desirable outcome – Penn State in Nashville – also isn’t projected anywhere. But you might get a ranked opportunity against Minnesota, who beat Wisconsin on Saturday. The Gophers are also receiving votes in the AP poll, but could sneak into tomorrow’s playoff poll. The same would be true with NC State, currently 21st; Clemson, currently 23rd; and possibly Wake Forest in a loss, currently 18th.

After that, there would be some excitement over catching Miami or North Carolina in Charlotte. The Hurricanes still carry brand value, and the Tar Heels would present an opportunity to right the wrongs of the Music City Bowl 11 years ago.

Any of those games would present an opportunity to elevate the program to various degrees. Nothing would do more for Tennessee than beating Clemson. But a ranked win over Wake Forest, NC State, or Minnesota, or a statement win over Miami, North Carolina, or Penn State would all be helpful.

Some of the other projections wouldn’t carry the same weight, though Vols vs Purdue could be plenty of fun if you like offense. Tennessee hasn’t played Virginia since the January 1, 1991 Sugar Bowl, but the Hoos ended their season with four straight losses to BYU, Notre Dame, Pitt, and Virginia Tech, so what would’ve been an opportunity game now feels more like an anniversary special.

No matter what, a win for Tennessee would lead to an 8-5 finish, which would be the most wins in year one for any Vol squad since Phillip Fulmer’s in 1993. Forward progress is available anywhere…it’s just a question of how much.

Go Vols.

The Vols handled their business against South Alabama, and picked up a couple of desired results elsewhere in the bowl pecking order. Auburn, once 6-2 and still alive for Atlanta, is now staring at 6-6 unless they can beat Alabama. And Florida fell to 5-6 and fired Dan Mullen, which should remove them as bowl competition for Tennessee.

Tennessee continues to be projected in the SEC’s group of six, almost exclusively in one of two places:

• Charlotte: CBS, ESPN Bonagura
• Nashville: 247, College Football News, ESPN Schlabach

Both of those bowls come with matchups that would excite (Penn State! Miami! North Carolina! Ranked NC State!) and those that might not (Minnesota! Unranked NC State!). They’re both good geographic fits for Tennessee’s fan base. And they’re both the best you can ask for if you’re not going to spend New Year’s in Florida in a traditional January 1 bowl.

But can Tennessee still get to the sunshine state?

Here are the most important outcomes this week:

• Thursday: Ole Miss over Mississippi State. A Rebel victory in the Egg Bowl should lock them in to the New Year’s Six, moving everyone in the SEC up one spot. It would also leave the Bulldogs at 7-5, putting them on equal footing with Tennessee. If Mississippi State pulls the upset, the SEC can still get three teams in the CFP/NY6 so long as Alabama makes the playoff; the Sugar Bowl would then be required to take the next best SEC team.
• Friday: Missouri over Arkansas. If the Razorbacks win, an 8-4 and ranked Arkansas that’s been more in the national conversation this year – and with a hungry fan base – should probably go ahead of Tennessee in the pecking order. A Mizzou victory would put the Tigers and Razorbacks even with Tennessee at 7-5. That 62-24 win in Columbia looks better by the week.
• Saturday: Alabama over Auburn. Keeps the Tigers below Tennessee in the pecking order, and keeps Alabama in the playoff chase.
• Saturday: Clemson over South Carolina. The Gamecocks’ rally helps Tennessee’s resume for sure. Let’s just not get carried away and give anyone the notion of putting them ahead of Tennessee in the pecking order.
• Saturday: Louisville over Kentucky. If you want the biggest dreams, here’s the outcome you need most. At 9-3, the Cats would almost certainly (and deservedly) be the pick for the Outback Bowl. But if Kentucky slips to 8-4, and 2-4 in their last six? Could the folks in Tampa hope for a program with more momentum?

If you get those four outcomes, you’ll have Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss in the CFP/NY6, with Texas A&M in the Citrus Bowl. From there, the group of six – starting with the Outback Bowl – would be choosing from 8-4 Kentucky, 7-5 Arkansas/Mississippi State/Missouri/Tennessee, and a host of teams at 6-6 including Auburn, South Carolina, and potentially Florida and LSU.

In that scenario, the Vols could get to Jacksonville…or even Tampa. It’s unlikely, but possible.

Whatever it’s worth, here’s my most realistic scenario overall:

• CFP/NY6: Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss
• Citrus: Texas A&M
• Outback: Kentucky
• Gator: Arkansas
• Music City: Tennessee
• Mayo: South Carolina
• Liberty: Mississippi State
• Texas: Missouri
• Birmingham: Auburn

But if the Vols handle Vanderbilt, there should be plenty of good options available.