Category Archives: Football

Butch Jones: Comebacks, Blown Leads, and Pace of Play

In late September 2015, after two of the most difficult losses of the modern era, we researched how often the Vols had historically blown leads. In 17 years Phillip Fulmer’s teams blew a two-possession lead in a loss just six times:

  • 1994 at Mississippi State:  led 21-7 third quarter, lost 24-21
  • 1995 at Florida:  led 30-14 second quarter, lost 62-37
  • 1999 at Arkansas:  led 24-14 third quarter, lost 28-24
  • 2001 vs Georgia:  led 14-3 first quarter, lost 26-24
  • 2001 SEC Championship vs LSU:  led 17-7 second quarter, lost 31-20
  • 2006 vs Florida:  led 17-7 third quarter, lost 21-20

In just his first four years, Butch Jones’ teams have also blown a two-possession lead in a loss six times:

  • 2014 at Georgia:  led 10-0 first quarter, lost 35-32
  • 2014 vs Florida:  led 9-0 fourth quarter, lost 10-9
  • 2015 vs Oklahoma:  led 17-0 second quarter, lost 31-24 (2OT)
  • 2015 at Florida:  led 27-14 fourth quarter, lost 28-27
  • 2015 vs Arkansas:  led 14-0 first quarter, lost 24-20
  • 2016 at Vanderbilt:  led 34-24 third quarter, lost 45-34

Fulmer’s Vols never blew a two-possession lead in the fourth quarter. Jones’ Vols did it three times in a span of 13 games against Florida in 2014 and 2015 and Oklahoma in 2015. Before then you have to go back to 1986 to find a Tennessee squad that lost a game in which it led by two possessions in the fourth quarter.

But, consider this:  by my count Fulmer’s Vols came from two possessions behind to win 10 times in 17 years:

  • 21 points: Kentucky 2001, LSU 2005
  • 18 points:  Arkansas 1998
  • 17 points:  Georgia 2006
  • 15 points:  Kentucky 1995, Vanderbilt 2007
  • 13 points:  Alabama 1996, Auburn 1997
  • 10 points:  Arkansas 1995
  • 9 points:  Kentucky 2004

Meanwhile, Butch’s Vols have come back from two possessions behind to win six times in just the last three years:

  • 21 points:  Georgia 2015, Florida 2016
  • 17 points:  Georgia 2016
  • 14 points:  South Carolina 2014, Virginia Tech 2016
  • 10 points:  Appalachian State 2016

Quality of opponent is also interesting here:  40% of Fulmer’s comeback list is Kentucky or Vanderbilt, while two-thirds of Butch’s came against teams who were ranked at the time or finished the year that way.

Say what you will about Butch Jones (or Josh Dobbs, the quarterback of every one of those comebacks). The bigger point?  Pace of play has significantly changed how we watch college football.

Getting down 14 points used to create panic; Fulmer’s Vols only came back from such a deficit six times in 17 years. But today, it’s not a big deal:  Butch’s Vols have come back from down 14 points five times in the last 31 games. 

Getting up by a similar margin is also no sure thing anymore. Fulmer’s Vols only blew two leads of 12+ points ever, and only one if you remove games started by Todd Helton at quarterback. When Tennessee got up that much, the Vols were a lock (in part because of a far greater talent advantage). But the 2015 Vols blew 12+ point leads against three consecutive FBS foes.

Pace of play has increased the number of total plays per game, which means the opportunity to blow a lead or come back from a hole is greater now than it was in Fulmer’s day. More plays also means more opportunity for injury, which as we know can create all kinds of havoc in both an individual’s playing career and a season’s narrative.

Check out the total number of snaps Tennessee’s defense has faced in the last nine years:

Season Opponent Plays Per Game
2008 776 64.7
2009 852 65.5
2010 913 70.2
2011 752 62.7
2012 923 76.9
2013 827 68.9
2014 892 68.6
2015 904 69.5
2016 1000 76.9

Last year the Vols were one of only nine defenses to face 1,000 plays while playing only 13 games. The 2016 defense clearly had problems that went beyond injuries, depth, and fatigue. But no one should pretend this kind of workload wasn’t a significant factor.

Numbers like these are also why using yards/points per game is so misleading. Missouri gained 740 yards on the Vols, but did so in 110 plays. In yards per play it was only the fourth worst performance of the season for the Tennessee defense. Team 120’s season total in yards per play allowed (5.84) was better than not just Sal Sunseri’s 2012 debacle (6.13), but also Butch’s first year in 2013 (6.07).

These numbers suggest Tennessee is going to blow some leads this fall. They also suggest no one should panic if Tennessee falls behind by two scores. I’m sure there are things for Butch to consider in how he prepares his team and keeps them locked in during games. But overall I think this has less to do with Butch Jones and more to do with the current reality of the game. And for coaches, players, and fans alike, it means a higher percentage of meaningful snaps.

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Greg Emerson Gives Tennessee the Jewel of its Recruiting Class

When the news broke on Sunday that elite Tennessee defensive end target Greg Emerson suffered a leg injury at “The Opening” recruiting showcase camp, Volunteers fans and commitments everywhere showered the 4-star prospect with love.

The news improved significantly on Monday when it became clear the Jackson, Tennessee, star would be running again after just 4-6 weeks on the shelf.

Then, 24 hours later, the headlines concerning Emerson became front-page news for UT fans when perhaps the top target in the 2018 Vols recruiting class made his commitment to Tennessee official on the NFL Network with a surprise announcement.

“I said I was going to do it in December, but I guess I’ll go ahead and let everybody know. For the next four years, I’ll probably be furthering my education at the University of Knoxville. Go Big Orange.”

It’s all good that he left out the “Tennessee” part right now. Quite honestly, nobody who cares anything about Vols football cares that a nervous kid mixed up the name. The bottom line is Emerson is an elite prospect who has seemingly favored UT for a long time and will play his college days on Rocky Top. That’s massive news for head coach Butch Jones, Emerson’s top recruiter Walt Wells and his position coach, Brady Hoke, who deserves a big assist in the commitment.

Emerson is the nation’s No. 26-ranked player overall in the 247Sports recruiting rankings and the third-ranked defensive tackle. In the composite ratings, he’s the No. 76 player and fifth-ranked defensive tackle. He is currently 6’3″, but he wants to stay on the outside and play defensive end in college, and because he’s reportedly down to 260 pounds (from 296), his weight and his athleticism may allow him to do just that. Last year, there were 32 5-stars on 247Sports, so with a strong senior season, there’s no reason to believe he can’t finish there.

247Sports analyst Steve Wiltfong believes the Vols are getting one of the most athletic defensive linemen in the nation, which is saying something at his size.

Emerson’s size may sound like an interior lineman, and he may very well be, but Emerson’s burst is elite. At the very least, he’ll be a guy who can be a versatile cog anywhere up front the way Jonathan Kongbo projects to be and much the way a guy like Malik Jackson was able to do in the past. Emerson has that type of talent, and it’s the reason why he’s one of the most sought-after players in the country.

Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Florida, Florida State and basically everybody else wanted him to commit to them. Emerson even admitted early in the process he grew up an Alabama fan. But Emerson has been feeling the Vols for a while. Last year, when UT won a hotly contested recruiting battle for the services of 5-star offensive lineman Trey Smith of Jackson, Emerson was present at his announcement, and he was visibly excited for Smith committing to Tennessee.

Over the past few months, Emerson visited Knoxville multiple times. He developed a strong bond with Jones, Wells and Hoke, and, beyond that, he also built a rapport with two other big-time linemen from the Volunteer State in Brant Lawless and D’Andre Litaker. Both of those kids verbally committed to Tennessee over the past few months, and it became evident that it would be a major upset if Emerson went anywhere else.

On Monday, he made his verbal commitment official.

The Vols continue to load up in the Volunteer State. Pretty much, the only three players they wanted who haven’t committed are running back Master Teague (Ohio State), offensive lineman Max Wray (Ohio State) and Jordan Davis (Alabama). The Vols quickly moved on at running back and on the O-line, and they’re still heavily recruiting Davis, but it appears he’s solid to the Crimson Tide at the moment.

Davis visited at “Orange Carpet Day” a couple of weeks ago, as did Emerson, who actually silently committed to Tennessee during that visit, according to VolQuest’s Jesse Simonton and Austin Price, who did a commitment video with the big lineman during that weekend.

With Emerson’s commitment, it gives Tennessee a bevy of Volunteer State studs. Five-star offensive lineman Cade Mays from Knoxville Catholic leads the pack with Emerson not far behind him in the rankings. Alontae Taylor is also at “The Opening” recruiting showcase camp in Nike’s world headquarters in Beaverton, Oregon. The Manchester, Tennessee, athlete gives UT another marquee player from close to home. Lawless and Litaker have all the trappings to be next-level studs, and Chattanooga safety Brendon Harris looks like he could be a multi-year starter, too. Farragut tight end Jacob Warren and Knoxville (Gibbs) center Ollie Lane round out the players from within state borders in UT’s haul.

The Vols have a few other in-state targets they’d love to land, but topping that list is offensive lineman Jerome Carvin.

If UT can get him, that will mean perhaps the best instate recruiting class in the history of Vols football. It will mean the Vols addressed major needs in both trenches without even having to venture out-of-state. When you’re able to take care of business at home, it can be the beginning of a fantastic class.

Throw in two good-looking running backs and a pair of stellar quarterbacks, and this class is off to as good a start as any nationally.

This UT recruiting machine has come a long way in the past year when you take into consideration that nearly a year ago, the Vols were receiving a crucial blow when Oak Ridge wide receiver was choosing Clemson over his hometown team. Toss in Jacob Phillips and JaCoby Stevens choosing LSU, and it was a forgettable recruiting class for the Vols in their own state.

This year, the class is elite. And it’s getting there because all the big boys in the Volunteer State are staying home to be part of the #Dom1n8 class that is shaping up to be dominant, at least on paper. It’s a class that is loaded. Emerson makes it much more so.

With the changes he made on the coaching staff, they’re paying major dividends with prospects. Tennessee is currently ranked fourth nationally in recruiting and second in the SEC. The Vols have put together a strong group of 16 kids in a class that should swell to 25-26.

Regardless of what big fish Jones may land between now and National Signing Day, Emerson is going to be among the top two or three in the group. He’s exactly the kind of player who can be a playmaker and an immediate-impact prospect in Knoxville.

Do You Smell What Walt Wells is Cooking?

There’s no wonder players everywhere love Tennessee offensive line coach Walt Wells. If he winds up coaching half as well as he’s recruiting, the new Volunteers assistant will wind up being a home-run hire for coach Butch Jones.

Upon getting hired by the Vols to be the full-time offensive line coach, Wells referred to Tennessee as his “dream job.” So far, it’s been a dream fit.

How many times have you heard over the past few years of Jones’ tenure that the Vols needed another “ace” recruiter. It’s hard to believe there’s been one just down the hall as an offensive quality control assistant. After last year, South Carolina head coach Will Muschamp came calling, trying to get Wells to be the Gamecocks’ new offensive line coach. But Wells stayed. Perhaps he already knew what was going to happen as UT parted ways with O-line coach Don Mahoney and promoted Wells to a full-time gig.

It’s already paid massive recruiting dividends on the recruiting trail, and it looks like it could be one of the best hires of an offseason full of assistant flipping.

“It’s always been a dream of mine to be here and I know it’s more than a dream, it’s reality now and I know what the reality is – we need results,” Wells told the media in his first interview as UT’s O-line coach. “That’s my goal just as much as anybody in this building.”

While those on-field results must wait, the work in the living rooms is paying off for Wells and Tennessee already.

Currently, Wells ranks eighth out of all assistants in 247Sports’ recruiter rankings, credited with five commitments. Five-star Knoxville Catholic commit Cade Mays, instate stud safety Brendan Harris and defensive tackle D’Andre Litaker lead the pack with Farragut tight end Jacob Warren and 3-star Knoxville (Gibbs) offensive lineman Ollie Lane credited to him, as well.

Wells already has landed 2019 commitments from Chattanooga athlete Cameron Wynn and midstate prospect Adonis Otey.

He’s also the lead recruiter on stud defensive lineman Greg Emerson of Jackson, Tennessee, who UT is right in the thick of, as well as Memphis top offensive tackle target Jerome Carvin, elite JUCO defensive lineman Dorian Gerald (who has UT and South Carolina at the top of his list), IMG Academy offensive lineman Reuben Unije, Virginia tight end James Mitchell and others. Tackle prospects Tanner Antonetti and massive IMG Academy standout Daniel Faalele are also being targeted by Wells.

The Vols are throwing him at some of their top targets, and he’s helping build an exceptional recruiting class. While Brady Hoke gets credit for Nashville defensive tackle Brant Lawless, Wells at least provided an assist there, too.

With all the talent instate this year and next, it was vital for the Vols to win their share of battles in the Volunteer State. Any time you can keep home 8-12 players who are being recruited by the rest of the SEC, it gives you the opportunity to build a firm foundation for a top-10 class that can compete to win the SEC East, if not the league. That was a major failure a season ago as top talent like receiver Tee Higgins, linebacker Jacob Phillips and defensive back JaCoby Stevens went elsewhere.

While linebackers coach Tommy Thigpen has won a lot of recruiting battles for UT, his star was fading in the state, especially in the I-24 corridor between Mufreesboro and Nashville that has become fertile recruiting ground the past few years.

Enter Wells.

The Belmont graduate and Tennessee native has long-time ties in the Midstate. He’s a proud Tennessean, and he plays up the state pride angle very well. His Twitter profile even has a #MidStateMade hash tag right there for the world to see. He has firm roots in relationships with coaches and camps within Nashville and beyond. People know Wells, and Wells knows people. More importantly, people like Wells.

Coaches like Wells. Parents like Wells. And, most important, kids like Wells.

It’s easy to see why. He’s also one of the most fun follows on all of Tennessee Twitter, quickly becoming known for his Pro Wrasslin’-themed tweets that either herald a coming commitment or celebrating one once it’s official. No, coaches can’t comment specifically on players, but there’s nothing cryptic about the references Wells flings out every time the Vols add one to their “Dom1n8” class.

Like this tweet in response to last weekend’s duo of running back commitments Lyn-J Dixon and Anthony Grant where he references the great Sting during his NWO days.

https://twitter.com/UTWWells/status/878713411357507584

And this one in reference to the same duo, throwing a little former UGA player Bill Goldberg out there with a Georgia reference.

https://twitter.com/UTWWells/status/879090506785054720

You gotta love that, right?

For a coaching staff (and head coach) who embraces social media and getting a positive message out there, Wells is a perfect fit. Now, about that coaching, he’s got to do a much better job than his predecessor.

Mahoney was an assistant UT’s offensive linemen loved, but the on-field results were always underachieving. He inherited a talented bunch in his first season with Ja’Wuan James, Zach Fulton, Tiny Richardson and James Stone, but UT’s line didn’t live up to the expectations, struggling in a scheme fit as the Vols relied on zone-blocking concepts when they were built primarily for man blocking.

The next year in 2014 was an absolute disaster as graduation and early departures of all those aforementioned players and Derek Dooley’s recruiting gaffes led to an awful season up front. The failure of JUCO offensive tackle Dontavius Blair didn’t help matters, either. Then in ’15, UT made a big leap up front in what was Mahoney’s best coaching job. The unit plummeted a year ago, however, and it became evident Tennessee needed to go in a different direction.

Now, Wells gets the opportunity to see if his infectious personality and recruiting chops can materialize with some strong Xs and Os. If he winds up being a great coach, the Vols’ offensive worries for the upcoming season with a possible dropback passer in Quinten Dormady under center and some new weapons for a new coordinator Larry Scott may not be such a big deal after all.

A lot is riding on Wells and UT’s offensive line, which returns a slew of players who have a great blend of youth, talent and experience. It’s far from a barren cupboard, so Wells doesn’t have any excuses. Tennessee fans have to hope he coaches as well as he convinces kids to commit.

If he does, Tennessee’s trenches will be in good hands for years to come.

SEC Schedule Proposal with FiveThirtyEight’s Model

Of the many interesting scheduling ideas floating around this off-season (including Joel’s here a few days ago), my favorite is from back in January: Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight’s Make College Football Great Again. Their post uses the Big Ten, in part an effort to help prevent another Penn State or Ohio State playoff debate. We’re simply applying it here to the SEC. In terms of what is the most fair and the most fun, this is the best model I’ve seen.

No divisions, no conference championship game, nine regular season conference games.

First, ditching conference championship games frees up an additional week to be used on playoff expansion or an extra bye week.

If you’re going to go this route, you have to address the possibility of ties at the top of the standings. Models that include a handful of annual rivals and a rotation of other opponents – including ones that do it well like this one from SB Nation – either keep the conference championship game as a potential rematch, or shrug their shoulders at the notion of a tie.

In case you were born before divisions or overtime, ties are awful. No one is happy because literally no one wins.

I’m for anything that makes every single game matter as much as possible, and in this sense I don’t like playing conference championship games in non-divisional formats because of a higher probability of rematches. Divisional formats with annual rivalries greatly reduce the possibility of rematches: in 25 years the SEC has never had an annual rivalry (Tennessee-Alabama, Florida-LSU, Georgia-Auburn) play an encore in Atlanta.

But take out divisions? If you just sent the two best conference records to Atlanta, Tennessee and Florida would have run it back in 1993, 1995, 1996, 1998, and the very next week in 2001. This absolutely would have diminished the value of the regular season meeting.

Schedules need a way to preserve the rivalries that matter most, but also maximize the value of every game. And they need to be able to produce a champion that is rewarded in ways Penn State was not. Head-to-head needs to matter more, not less.

This is why I love FiveThirtyEight’s model:

Imagine a world in which historical rivals always play each other every year and yet, by almighty Rockne, the best teams in a conference always play one another, too. Imagine a world with no divisions.

Not only have I imagined such a world, my friends, but I have seen one. I have seen it in the hallways of a high-school debate tournament.

The solution that debate tournaments devised is something called power-pairing. Power-pairing just means that teams with the same record are paired off against each other, so that a team that starts off the tournament 2-0 will face off against another 2-0 team, for instance. It usually works by drawing the first two rounds of a tournament at random,1 and after that, everything is power-paired.

Three annual rivalries, two predetermined opponents, four flexed/power-paired match-ups

Here are the annual rivalries I went with:

  • Alabama:  Auburn, LSU, Tennessee
  • Arkansas:  LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M
  • Auburn:  Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi State
  • Florida: Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee
  • Georgia:  Auburn, Florida, South Carolina
  • Kentucky: Mississippi State, Missouri, Vanderbilt
  • LSU:  Alabama, Arkansas, Ole Miss
  • Ole Miss:  LSU, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
  • Mississippi State:  Auburn, Kentucky, Ole Miss
  • Missouri:  Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas A&M
  • South Carolina:  Florida, Georgia, Vanderbilt
  • Tennessee:  Alabama, Florida, Vanderbilt
  • Texas A&M:  Arkansas, Ole Miss, Missouri
  • Vanderbilt: Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee

In FiveThirtyEight’s model, teams play their rivals in weeks 2, 4, and 7 of league play. Week 7 highlights the biggest rivalries as best we’re able. There’s a logistical point here for the SEC: this model works more smoothly for the Big Ten because they typically don’t start conference play until week four or five. So there’s a whole piece here about moving most or all non-conference games to early September that would have to be worked out, along with bye weeks.

In weeks 1 and 3 of league play, teams would face a predetermined opponent. FiveThirtyEight’s model uses the previous season’s standings to determine these foes:  Week 1 would feature teams from the top of the conference against teams from the bottom, Week 3 would feature best against best and worst against worst.

Opponents in weeks 5, 6, 8, and 9 of league play would be determined as the season played itself out. Weeks 5 and 6 would be decided after Week 4; Weeks 8 and 9 decided after Week 7, with both pairs of match-ups featuring one home and one away game. In each case, the league office would make the effort to power-pair teams based on their current records, creating the best available match-ups among teams yet to face each other. FiveThirtyEight’s piece had an algorithm help select these match-ups.

How would this look for the SEC? Here’s a sample season we played out (projected losses in red):

Let’s take Tennessee as an example. After four weeks the Vols are 3-1, and are paired with 4-0 Texas A&M and 2-2 LSU in Weeks 5 and 6. After seven weeks the Vols are 5-2, and are paired with 4-3 Ole Miss and 4-3 Auburn in the last two weeks of the season.

At the end of the year the Vols didn’t play Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi State, or Missouri. None of those teams finished above .500. Look at how many meaningful games everyone is playing:  Alabama, who wins the league at 8-1, played every team finishing 6-3 or better and three of the four teams finishing 5-4. South Carolina, who tied for last at 2-7, did not face Alabama or 7-2 Texas A&M.

If two teams tie at the top, power-pairing virtually assures they played each other during the regular season, thus head-to-head decides it. If three teams tie and their head-to-head results cancel out, power-pairing virtually assures you can find a next best common opponent to break the tie.

This would require some flexibility at all levels, especially with four unknown games to schedule on short notice. But of all the models I’ve seen, this one is the best at producing a worthy champion without divisions or rematches while sustaining key rivalries. It creates a sense of anticipation and opportunity as the season goes along with good teams continuing to face each other; in the above case the title is decided in the final week of the season when Alabama plays Texas A&M. It increases the value of every win: going 9-3 may not be cause for celebration right now, but against a schedule like this it becomes much more of an accomplishment (and hopefully creates healthier expectations along with more meaningful games). It also protects schools at the bottom of the league in any given year, helping struggling teams stay alive for bowl eligibility longer with more winnable games down the stretch. And, most importantly, it pushes opinion out of the equation and maximizes head-to-head results.

Butch Jones, Bane, and the Bye Week

When I was 11, Superman died. It had the intended effect: me and thousands of others got invested in comic books thanks to Doomsday, one mammoth event leading to several others over the next few years.

The following summer, Batman got in on the action with the 18-month arc Knightfall. The turning point in this series came when Bruce Wayne faced a new villain for the first time. Kids today know Bane as a fun voice to impersonate. Eleven-year-old me was introduced to him when he broke Batman’s back in the summer of 1993.

The fight was reproduced in The Dark Knight Rises on the big screen in 2012, but the buildup in the comics was completely different. Knightfall starts when Bane busts all of Batman’s biggest enemies out of Arkham Asylum, then waits for Bruce to exhaust himself catching each of them before he faces him. And unlike Superman, who gave as good as he got against Doomsday, when Batman faces Bane it’s even worse than the movie:  the entire issue is devoted to Bane beating Batman within an inch of his life in his own home. Child Will had nightmares after reading it.

I thought about this last fall as Alabama rolled through Knoxville, the only punches a depleted Vol squad landed coming thanks to Derek Barnett, who might actually be Batman for all I know. It wasn’t just the beat down, it was the buildup:  Tennessee had gone through Florida, Georgia, and Texas A&M in succession before facing the top-ranked Tide. You knew that run was going to be trouble the minute the schedule was announced. But it was the how of it all that proved to be so exhausting.

What happened in the first half of last season was simultaneously so exciting and so draining, I kept thinking I wouldn’t have time to fully enjoy it until after the season was over. The Florida game is the most exhausted I’ve ever been walking out of Neyland, was swiftly followed by the single most exhilarating play in school history, then immediately followed by a five-hour, double overtime, 17-injury marathon at Texas A&M. Then Bama. And that’s just how exhausting it was for fans, let alone what it did to the coaching staff and an ever-thinning roster.

There are no excuses, as Butch Jones would probably admit; the second half of the season ultimately made the first half something you couldn’t fully enjoy anymore. But looking ahead with 10 weeks to go until kickoff, one thing is certain:  thank God we don’t have to do it that way again.

The toughest stretch of the 2017 season is your choice of South Carolina, at Alabama, at Kentucky, or at Missouri, LSU, Vanderbilt. Either one is a tough SEC West draw book-ended by two of four from the traditional bottom half of the SEC East. Team 121 probably won’t be good enough to take anyone for granted and should learn from Team 120’s November mistakes in that regard. But no matter who does or doesn’t get hot in the league this year, there is no way Tennessee will have to face anything like those four weeks from last fall.

The first five weeks put Indiana State, 2-10 UMass, and the bye week evenly spaced between Georgia Tech, Florida, and Georgia. If the East goes as it usually does, the Vols won’t have to face any of their five most difficult foes on consecutive Saturdays.

How ridiculous was last fall? A trip through the media guide shows it was the only time in school history the Vols have faced ranked foes on four consecutive Saturdays. (EDIT: Upon further research, I put the bye week in the wrong place in 2013, which means Tennessee faced ranked teams on four consecutive Saturdays that year as well. So it’s only happened twice in school history, both times to Butch Jones.) Someone may have made this point as it was happening last year, but I know myself and many others were too caught up in everything that transpired in those four weeks to notice. 

The most difficult stretches in modern program history may have featured higher ranked teams than #19 Florida, #25 Georgia, #8 Texas A&M, and #1 Alabama. But none of them included this kind of gauntlet on four consecutive Saturdays:

  • 1991:  Tennessee faced five ranked teams in a row (#21 UCLA, #23 Mississippi State, #13 Auburn, #10 Florida, #14 Alabama) but had a bye week after the first three and none were ranked higher than 10th. The Vols went 3-2 in this stretch, then two weeks later beat #5 Notre Dame in The Miracle at South Bend.
  • 1994:  Four of Tennessee’s first five opponents were ranked (#14 UCLA, #23 Georgia, #1 Florida, #17 Washington State) with a trip to Starkville coming between the Gators and Cougars. An inopportune time for your starting quarterback to get hurt on the first drive of the season, and a huge ask for a baseball player and a young freshman filling in. They turned out alright.
  • 2002:  Already dealing with season-changing injuries, the ’02 Vols played a six overtime game with Arkansas, then faced #6 Georgia, a bye week, #19 Alabama, South Carolina, and #1 Miami. 
  • 2005:  A common theme in another disappointing year, Tennessee faced five Top 10 teams in eight weeks (#6 Florida, #4 LSU, #5 Georgia, #5 Alabama, #8 Notre Dame).
  • 2007:  Only one of these teams was ranked, but in terms of pressure I’d put Tennessee’s march to Atlanta on the list:  the ’07 Vols had to win out to win the East against the Heisman runner-up from Arkansas, Vanderbilt in the biggest fourth quarter comeback in Neyland history, and at Kentucky in four overtimes. They then faced #5 LSU in Atlanta, the eventual BCS Champions.
  • 2011:  On four consecutive Saturdays the Vols faced unranked Georgia (where Tyler Bray broke his thumb), #1 LSU, #2 Alabama, and #14 South Carolina. Two weeks later Arkansas would become the third season-ending Top 5 team Dooley’s Vols faced. The only team on this list that failed to win at least one of these games.
  • 2013: Tennessee played five Top 11 teams plus a bye week on six consecutive Saturdays (#6 Georgia, #11 South Carolina, #1 Alabama, #10 Missouri, #7 Auburn), the last two starting true freshman Josh Dobbs at quarterback. Whenever someone casts Butch Jones’ overall record at Tennessee in a negative light, remember this ridiculous run in his very first year.

Tennessee plays in the best conference in college football and has always scheduled aggressively. But it has never had to face four Saturdays like it did last fall, both on paper and in what those games eventually turned in to. 

Bane eventually goes down to a new Batman, fighting with new weapons and new tactics. Team 121 will have to find new ways to win this fall without Barnett and Dobbs and many other old names to rely on. But the task itself will not be as exhausting on so many Saturdays in a row. If nothing else, 2017 should have a better rhythm. Hopefully it leads to a year we can all enjoy more fully.

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Tennessee’s Alabama problem is really an SEC problem

There’s been a lot of talk recently about Tennessee’s “Alabama Problem” — it’s annual rivalry game with the Tide on the Third Saturday in October. The Knoxville News Sentinel’s John Adams kicked things off on June 5 by publishing an article entitled Tennessee Vols shouldn’t have to play Alabama every year. That framed the issue as “whether Tennessee should play Alabama every year.”

Adams makes some valid points on the way to his conclusion that Tennessee should not play Alabama every year, namely that ten consecutive losses is too high a price to pay for tradition and rivalry.

He’s right that the annual rivalry game has put the Vols at a huge disadvantage in the SEC East recently.

His conclusion, though — that the SEC should do away with the idea of permanent cross-divisional rivals altogether — is all wrong.

Playing the game isn’t the problem

A couple of minor points first, based on a couple of things that Adams actually conceded before concluding that they didn’t matter enough to change his opinion. Rivalries are cyclical, and it’s not unreasonable to expect that Alabama’s rivals will eventually return the favor with a period of dominance over them. You don’t throw out 100 years of tradition because of a bad 10-year stretch. Also, it is “[b]etter to get run over by the Tide than appear to run away from them.” It’s not just that no one wants to back down. It’s also that that game provides a real opportunity to do something special every year.

But here’s the main point: The problem isn’t permanent cross-divisional opponents, it’s that those games are given too much weight when deciding which team should represent the division in the SEC Championship Game.

Losing sight of the question leads to wrong answers

An extreme example illustrates the point that such games may not provide the right answers the right questions. Suppose that a high school team plays the New England Patriots and, as expected, is absolutely destroyed. Does that tell you anything at all about how good that team is relative to other high school teams? Of course it doesn’t.

And cross-divisional games don’t answer questions about the division, either.

The SEC Championship Game ostensibly pits the best team in the East against the best team in the West. That’s the goal. If they happen to also be the league’s two best teams, great. But if not, it doesn’t matter. It’s best of the East against best of the West.

So, one of the SEC’s highest priorities should be a system that accurately identifies the best team in each division. Their current system, though, is faulty because it relies too heavily on the results of dissimilar cross-divisional schedules. Playing and losing to the Patriots says little to nothing about your standing in the SEC East, and neither does playing and losing to Alabama. Especially when the other teams in the East play Mississippi State instead.

And yet that one extra loss to the Tide can make all the difference when it’s time to decide who represents the East in the SEC Championship Game.

Why is it that the SEC doesn’t count non-conference games when determining SEC standings? Is it because games against MAC or FCS opponents (or Clemson or Ohio State) are simply not relevant to the SEC hierarchy? When determining which team is the best in the conference, the SEC says that only SEC games matter.

But even as the SEC completely (and appropriately) discounts non-conference games when calculating SEC standings, it gives equal weight to cross-divisional games when determining division standings.

The solution

The answer to Tennessee’s current Alabama problem isn’t to do away with the rivalry by persuading the SEC to toss out the notion of permanent cross-divisional rivals. Bring ’em on. Let’s keep making progress toward the top of that hill, and when we get there, let’s return the favor for a while.

No, the problem’s not that the SEC has permanent cross-division rivals, it’s that the conference improperly uses the results of those games to draw conclusions about division standings. And while Tennessee seems to be taking the brunt of it lately, this is really an SEC problem more than it is a Tennessee problem, and everyone in the conference should care about it.

It’s not a question of fairness, it’s a question of accuracy. If the SEC truly wants its championship game to feature a contest between the best team from the East and best team from the West, it doesn’t need to eliminate permanent cross-divisional rivals, it just needs to de-emphasize the impact of those games on division standings.

 

 

Gameday Today: Phillip Fulmer, summer football, and summer hoops

More thoughts on The Papa, football keeps grinding, and updates on the Rocky Top League. This and more in today’s Vols link roundup.

Football

The Tennessee offense is gearing up for the fall:

And apparently, Butch Jones is taking the whole “pace” thing to an extreme this offseason:

https://twitter.com/vol_football/status/877503882984775680

What does Butch Jones think about Fulmer’s return to Rocky Top? Good question!

“It’s an exciting time for the entire Tennessee family to have Coach Fulmer and his expertise and the ability to build relationships that he brings,” Jones told SEC Country on Wednesday. “I consider Coach a mentor and a great friend, and I think this is healthy for everyone involved, not just football, but the entire Tennessee community.”

Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad to hear all of that, but really, what else is he going to say?

And what does Wes Rucker think about Fulmer’s return to Rocky Top? Good question!

So pretty much everybody but one person likes this move.

Speaking of Fulmer, The Papa is really happy that the talent pool in the state of Tennessee is improving, and he says having local Tennessee kids matters:

“It means more in the fourth quarter against Alabama, it just does,” Fulmer said. “You have to go back home and live it.”

And in case you missed it, you’ll want to check out the latest Vols hype video and the details of the Big Orange Caravan’s Tri Cities stop.

Hoops

Recruiting

New offers:

VFLs

  • Nobody here is going to be surprised to hear that Josh Dobbs has already displayed a real knack for learning what he needs to know as a quarterback with the Pittsburgh Steelers, but you may be surprised to hear that he’d already learned a bunch of pro knowledge while at Tennessee running Butch Jones’ system.
  • If this keeps up, we’re going to need a whole new blog just for Eric Berry:

https://twitter.com/vol_football/status/877564733544595457

Seriously, follow that link and watch that video.

Other Vols news

Big Orange Caravan Tri Cities stop set for July 11

Tennessee has finally announced the location, date, and time for the Big Orange Caravan’s stop in the Tri Cities. The BOC will be at the Kingsport Farmers Market on Tuesday, July 11 from 5:00-7:00 p.m. ET.

As of right now, we only know that Butch Jones, John Currie, and Bob Kesling will be there, but the release says that additional coaches and VFLs may be added in the coming days. The Tri Cities version of the event will be more like the ones held earlier in Chattanooga and Memphis and less like the most recent one in Nashville, meaning that it’s going to be less expensive and more fun. Admission is $5 per person in advance ($10 at the door), and kids 12 and under get in free. They’ll have music, a prize wheel, a photo booth, cornhole, a social media station, free popcorn, face painting and more.

Register online at BigOrangeCaravan.com. Online registration closes three days prior to the event.

 

 

The Papa! The Papa! Phillip Fulmer returns to Rocky Top as an official advisor

We’re huge fans of Phillip Fulmer around here. Back at the old place, we called him The Papa, after Tevye in Fiddler on the Roof, and credited him with much of the best parts about Tradition on Rocky Top. He was the “guy who’d been hugging history and tradition so tightly that it had become both his greatest strength and his greatest weakness. He had voluntarily assumed the role as the proverbial salt of the earth, the individual charged with preserving the way things were, the guy who was constantly reminding his peers of the good old days, the paternal old crank who, whether you wanted him to or not, took it upon himself to shield and protect you from the decomposition that too often follows forgetting where you’re from.”The Papa - Tradition!

 

The program put The Papa out to pasture in 2008 and went on a Rumspringa that lasted not just a Kiffin-Year, but a Dooley-Decade. Some wanted the new way, and some wanted the old, but none wanted it to take ten years. The process has been gradual, but we have been slowly walking home the past few years, and the re-hiring of The Papa in an advisory capacity is a comforting signpost of progress.

So count us among the many who were ecstatic about yesterday’s news. Fulmer’s official job duties include serving as an ambassador for the University, supporting the programs, and working with UT government relations and alumni affairs leadership to advocate for the school.

Unofficially, though, this seems to me to be even more valuable than any of that because it signals a long overdue and serious effort to eliminate some of the dysfunction that has been lingering on campus for almost a decade now. Basically, The Papa is adored by nearly everyone and is associated with the last great era in Volunteer history, and having the guy who was unceremoniously fired back in the office and diplomatically and gracefully asking everyone to start pulling in the same direction is a very good thing for the program.

Here’s the press conference announcing the move:

Fulmer’s first great move was preempting speculation about whether he had any lingering bad feelings about not getting the athletic director job and it going instead to John Currie, who some rumors credit with having some role in his ouster as coach. It sounds to me like he’s saying that to the extent it’s true, it’s water under the bridge and that everyone has learned from it.

And Currie himself is echoing the same message:

Of course, at least one person was either not listening or not hearing.

But thankfully, most are applauding the move:

Me, I couldn’t be happier. I love the guy. I know there are varying opinions about what happened in 2008, but I think he got a raw deal. What should not be up for debate, though, is the class with which he handled the whole situation. That continues now, as he sits there smiling, happy to be serving the University he loves for a sixth decade.

I’m sure that there are still some relationship issues bubbling under the surface, but it honestly feels like the program is tweaking its way back to health, making all of the right small moves on a grueling path out of the shadows. This was another positive step in the right direction.