Category Archives: Football

Leading the conversation at church yesterday morning: “Uh oh, Florida’s good again!” And while we don’t have to solve that problem this week, it does go in the math of this week’s expected win total machine.

Will the Gators be the week’s biggest mover among our opinions of Tennessee’s opponents? I felt like LSU was the least predictable game on the schedule going in, and I’m still not exactly sure what to expect from those guys…but I feel better about Tennessee’s chances. I’m curious to see how Georgia’s performance impacts our percentages there as well. Meanwhile, I’d imagine we’re feeling a little better about Pitt, South Carolina, maybe Kentucky, maybe others…

The number won’t improve much by itself by beating Ball State. Where I’ll really be curious is to come back next week, if the Vols beat Pitt, and see if we’re up past 8.5 wins.

But first, how are we feeling about Pitt, and the rest? Enter your probabilities below, and we’ll tally it up later this week:

There’s a psychological component to looking up and seeing those orange V-O-L-S letters, I’ll tell you that much for sure. They last appeared in The Year of Our Lord 1998, we all file away in the back of our minds and the front of our hearts.

But nevermind going back that far just yet. On our list of things we haven’t seen much in just the last 15 years: a Tennessee win by this margin against an FBS foe. Lane Kiffin’s team beat Western Kentucky in their first full-fledged FBS game 63-7 in 2009. Before that, you’ve gotta go back to, you guessed it, 2007 to find the Vols beating Louisiana-Lafayette 59-7 to top tonight’s 49-point win. It was one of the more stress-free evenings in Neyland Stadium in about that many years too, and didn’t take long to get that way.

https://twitter.com/SECNetwork/status/1565483570491179008

We’ve also apparently reached a point with this offense where you can think, “Hmm, this isn’t Hendon Hooker’s very best game,” and he’s 18-of-25 for 222 yards (8.9 per) with a pair of touchdowns and no picks. But one thing the Vols did for sure: spread that ball around. Ten different players caught a pass. Seven different players caught multiple passes; last year that never happened with more than five.

Something that came up in the opener last year too: Tennessee’s quarterback having so very much time to throw, you worry a little about them getting too comfortable before playing Pitt. Hendon Hooker was sacked once for a loss of one, and otherwise unthreatened. A good start for an offensive line that can really help this offense in that department.

Meanwhile, the Vols held Ball State to 5-of-14 on third down and 0-for-2 on fourth down. Here too, with plenty of room for improvement, the Vols took a good first step.

And Pitt just gave up 5.8 yards per carry to West Virginia, but we got the most desirable outcome: a Panther victory could setup a Top 25 showdown next Saturday.

But before all that, 92,236 showed up to watch the Vols on a Thursday night as a 35-point favorite. That’s the most for a home opener since 2018, and a sharp turn of events from early last season, when the Vols didn’t crack 90,000 for any home games other than Ole Miss and Georgia. In attendance, the closest comparison to last night since 2010 is the BYU game in 2019 (92,475). That’s a healthy, real-life sign of what Josh Heupel and these guys have accomplished since last year, when 82,203 came to the Pitt game.

All told, we got minimal stress, maximal health, a fun season-opening win that didn’t reveal much too much about this team. We’ll spend the next week hopeful the Panthers will discover we’re still full of surprises.

1-0.

Go Vols.

This is my first football season back in Knox County since 2005. I dropped my son off at pre-K this morning in a building full of orange. Life is pretty great these days.

Life should be pretty great for Tennessee tonight, even three years removed from Georgia State making it decidedly not so. If it helps, the Vols were around -26 that night, and are currently -35 with Ball State. There’s a temptation to send out eyes toward the Backyard Brawl, a simultaneous kickoff and one that should tell us much more about what to expect next Saturday than our game will. The weekend contains more of the same: Florida-Utah and LSU-Florida State should offer incredibly meaningful first impressions of teams we’ll see in the next 30 days.

We’ve still had relatively few kick-back-and-relax season openers in our recent past. Last year’s first look at Josh Heupel’s system led to a simplified evening of taking what the defense gave, 64 rushing attempts to 24 passes in a 38-6 ho-hummer against Bowling Green. Before that, ho-hum was about the best one could hope for. Not since the Vols jumped all over Utah State on a Sunday night in 2014 has a season opener gone exactly the way we wanted.

So yeah, free and easy is what we want tonight. And I think we’ve got as good a chance to get what we all want from this team as just about any in the last 15 years.

But the beauty of this sport remains in what we don’t know, the faith waiting to become sight.

Every season tells a story, and they are each unique. And every time – every time, through 15 years since Atlanta or 17 since I lived here or almost 41 since I was born – every time, I look forward to it. And so do you.

We don’t get to hold the pen by ourselves. It never goes exactly the way we think.

We’ve seen Jerry Colquitt get hurt on the opening drive. We’ve seen the Clawfense go down in the same setting 14 years later. We’ve seen Tennessee walk the balance beam with Appalachian State and Georgia Tech in consecutive years, and somehow not fall off. And yes, we’ve seen Georgia State come to Knoxville and win, straight up.

We’ve also seen the Vols roll up to Louisville on the first ever Thursday night game on ESPN and win. We’ve seen a win over Syracuse that had more meaning than we could possibly imagine at the time. We’ve wondered if we were lost, then felt like we were found in the blink of an eye against Cal. And we’ve seen Cordarrelle Patterson burn all our fears of the Georgia Dome to the ground.

So yeah, I don’t know if the most noteworthy thing to happen to the week one conversation will happen in Neyland tonight. I don’t know if, on Monday, we’ll be talking more about West Virginia or Utah than Tennessee.

But all of these stories weave together to make this still-interconnected-for-now beautiful mess of college football. There is nothing else like it. And as such, there is nothing else like today.

Enjoy it. Enjoy it.

Go Vols.

It’s game week, and this Vol squad enters the season with a chance to produce the program’s best year since our last division title in 2007. In the 15 years since, that honor currently belongs to the 2015 team. They didn’t have the emotional highs of Bristol, Florida, and a hail mary from the following season. But they also didn’t have the lows that came afterward. That 2015 group beat Georgia and stomped #12 Northwestern, and was highly competitive with some of the best teams in the country.

Since 2001, the 2015 squad is the only Tennessee team to avoid a three-possession (17+ point) loss. They also avoided a two-possession loss. But they went 2-4 in one-possession games, making them the only Vol squad to lose four one-possession games since Bill Battle’s final season in 1976.

We’ve used these two metrics to help gauge where a season might be headed. From 2017-2020, Tennessee lost 18 3+ possession games, 4.5 per year. In 2021, the Vols lost three 3+ possession games; they were the same ones they were 3+ possession underdogs in. But against Florida, Alabama, and Georgia, the Vols were also more feisty than usual, giving hope that we won’t spend too much longer talking about three possessions to the negative.

There’s clearly room for improvement here:

Tennessee 3+ Possession Losses Since 2001

• 0: 2015
• 1: 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2016
• 2: 2007, 2009, 2014

But this season is also an opportunity to measure progress not just from the floor, but to the ceiling. To do that, the Vols will likely need to excel in one-possession games. Tennessee went 1-3 in such contests last year (on cue: “Referees!”). And that’s been a problem for the program as well.

In the last 15 years, only one Tennessee team has a winning record in multiple one-possession games. That’s the 2019 Vol squad, who lost to Georgia State and BYU but beat Kentucky, Missouri, and Indiana. Jeremy Pruitt’s 3-2 record in such games helped his overall one-possession record finish at 5-3 at UT. Butch Jones went 10-14; Derek Dooley went 3-7.

(Phillip Fulmer, by the way, went 48-23-1. What’s the balance there of talent + confidence + coaching? That’s a fun conversation for a different off-season.)

How has this part looked in these last 15 years?

Tennessee in One-Possession Games Since 2007

Year	One Possession Games	Record
2021	4	1-3
2020	1	1-0
2019	5	3-2
2018	2	1-1
2017	5	2-3
2016	4	2-2
2015	6	2-4
2014	5	2-3
2013	4	2-2
2012	4	1-3
2011	3	1-2
2010	3	1-2
2009	4	1-3
2008	4	1-3

Best way to win them remains not to play them. But at Tennessee, we’ve been able to bank on around four of these a year when the Vols are competitive. Will the 2022 squad just thrash everyone outside of Alabama and Georgia and rise above all this? Maybe, but keep this in mind too:

Tennessee in One-Possession Games 1989-2001

Year	One Possession Games	Record
2001	5	4-1
2000	6	4-2
1999	3	1-2
1998	5	5-0
1997	4	4-0
1996	4	2-2
1995	3	3-0
1994	4	1-3
1993	2	0-1-1
1992	6	3-3
1991	3	2-1
1990	5	1-2-2
1989	6	6-0

Those Decade of Dominance Vol squads played 4.3 one-possession games per year. Again, however you want to argue for talent or Majors/Fulmer instilling the “clutch” DNA, they won them more than they lost them. Tennessee was under .500 in these games just four times in these 13 years.

So from the floor, can the Vols keep everyone within reach? Can we get into the fourth quarter with Alabama and Georgia and think about score, onside kick, score? Do we have a real chance to win every Saturday?

And to reach the ceiling, what will this team do in close games? You want to blow everyone out, fantastic. But if not, can this Tennessee team earn a winning record in one-possession games, just the second UT team since 2007 to pull that off?

The difference between 7-5 and 9-3 is usually what happens in close games. Where will this Vol squad end up?

This week we fired up our Expected Win Total Machine for the first time this fall, looking to establish a baseline for fan expectations going into the year. The initial results from week zero: our community projects the Vols to win 8.03 regular season games.

It’s an almost identical number to the 8.10 we got when we ran the win total machine after spring practice. A lot about this team feels known: system, coordinators, quarterback, eight(ish) starters back on both sides of the ball, etc. As such, we are apparently less prone to a fall camp boost, at least a week before kickoff. No quarterback competition for us to pile our hopes on, no significant injuries to our opponents, etc.

The win total machine uses the word “expected”, which makes this the sentence we’re trying on for size: “8-4 would meet expectations.”

That part feels right to me – I’ve got the Vols at 8.24 wins myself – and an 8-4 regular season would put UT on the right side of their 7.5 number in Vegas. The updated SP+ ratings project the Vols to win, you guessed it, 8.0 regular season games.

In seven days we’ll be immersed in the glorious week-to-week nature of this sport. So for one last time, a word on how far we’ve come to this point.

An 8-4 regular season would match the best year at Tennessee since 2007. That’s 15 years and six head coaches. And in that span, it’s only been done twice. That was years three and four under Butch Jones, and both times 8-4 left us feeling like there could have, should have been more.

Maybe we would feel that way about it this year, maybe not. All 8-4s are not created equal. It’s week-to-week.

But the notion that equaling the best regular season around here in 15 years in year two for Josh Heupel – given the history and the headaches he inherited – the notion that an 8-4 season would qualify as “meets expectations”? As we said after spring practice, that’s a testament to the good work these guys already did in year one.

Here’s the game-by-game breakdown from our win total machine:

Expected Win Percentage by Game

Ball State	98.70%
at Pitt	61.90%
Akron	97.50%
Florida	59.50%
at LSU	48.40%
Alabama	19.80%
UT Martin	98.90%
Kentucky	63.50%
at Georgia	22.60%
Missouri	76.30%
at South Carolina	66.50%
at Vanderbilt	89.70%

It’s what you’d think: assumed wins vs Ball State, Akron, UT Martin, and Vanderbilt. Missouri is viewed as the next easiest contest, with Tennessee getting better than 75% odds. The Vols getting around 20% chances against Alabama and Georgia in preseason is a good start; we’ve been running the win total machine since 2017, and have had plenty of, “Is 5% too much?” conversations about those games. We’re still not at a projection of .5 wins against those guys, where you can round up to an upset…but we’re getting closer.

Among the fanbase, here’s the meat of it: using these percentages, we expect the Vols to get 2.998 wins against Pitt, Florida, LSU, Kentucky, and South Carolina. So the most logical way we get to 8-4 is losses to Bama and Georgia, then 3-2 in those five games.

We’ll keep tracking these numbers every week, but that’s the initial expectation.

What can we hope for?

We throw 9-3 out there at lot for all the benchmarks it would clear, before you really get into fun fantasy scenarios about 10 wins and/or Atlanta. A 9-3 regular season has not been done in 15 years. A 9-3 regular season would almost certainly send the Vols to something better than the “Outback” Bowl for the first time in 18 years. A 9-3 regular season assures you beat at least one of Florida, LSU, Alabama, and Georgia.

It’s not the expectation, nor does it deserve to be yet. And like many of our hopes, it’s hard. Is 9-3 more likely than 7-5? For our community, the answer is yes, barely. The Vols played four one-possession games last year and went 1-3 in them. There can be a thin line between 7-5 and 9-3, but our feelings about those two outcomes would be much, much wider.

But we can indeed hope for it. And it’s a real hope, not a pretend or exaggerated one. Meaningful history is possible, right now.

If the expectation is to do as well as we’ve done in 15 years? And we can hope – really hope – for even more than that?

We’ve got a chance to have a really good time this year.

See you next week. Go Vols.

Our free-to-play picks contest is back! Join us over at Fun Office Pools for our annual community contest.

If you’re new with us, we pick 20 games per week, straight up, using confidence points: place 20 points on the game you’re most confident in (so, Vols vs Ball State this week), 1 point on the game you’re least confident in (…Utah at Florida?), etc. You can pick up til kickoff of each game, and if you fall behind or miss a week, you still earn just one point less than the lowest score that week, so you’re not eliminated via forgetfulness. Week Zero games aren’t included, so our first matchups begin a week from tomorrow. They’re live now at Fun Office Pools:

Thursday, September 1

• Ball State at Tennessee – 7:00 PM – SEC Network
• West Virginia at #17 Pittsburgh – 7:00 PM – ESPN
• Penn State at Purdue – 8:00 PM – Fox

Friday, September 2

• Virginia Tech at Old Dominion – 7:00 PM – ESPNU
• Illinois at Indiana – 8:00 PM – Fox Sports 1
• TCU at Colorado – 10:00 PM – ESPN

Saturday, September 3

• #13 NC State at East Carolina – 12:00 PM – ESPN
• North Carolina at Appalachian State – 12:00 PM – ESPNU
• #3 Georgia vs #11 Oregon (Atlanta) – 3:30 PM – ABC
• #23 Cincinnati at #19 Arkansas – 3:30 PM – ESPN
• #24 Houston at UTSA – 3:30 PM – CBS Sports Network
• #25 BYU at South Florida – 4:00 PM – ESPNU
• #7 Utah at Florida – 7:00 PM – ESPN
• Army at Coastal Carolina – 7:00 PM – ESPN+
• #5 Notre Dame at #2 Ohio State – 7:30 PM – ABC
• Memphis at Mississippi State – 7:30 PM – ESPNU
• Georgia State at South Carolina – 7:30 PM – ESPN+
• Boise State at Oregon State – 10:30 PM – ESPN

Sunday, September 4

• LSU vs Florida State (New Orleans) – 7:30 PM – ABC

Monday, September 5 – Labor Day

• #4 Clemson at Georgia Tech – 8:00 PM – ESPN

Any questions, fire away in the comments. Good luck!

Here we go.

How many games will the Vols win this year? Our favorite way to find our what you really think is back: the Gameday on Rocky Top Expected Win Total Machine launches today, and will be back every week throughout the season.

Enter your percentage guess for each game in the table below (something closer to 100 for Ball State, something closer to…not zero for Alabama or Georgia). Once you submit all your totals, you’ll get your expected win total for Tennessee’s regular season. We’ll keep tabs for the entire community and report back with how we’re all feeling later this week.

When we ran this after spring practice, our community total was 8.1 expected wins. I’m curious to see how that may have changed as we move toward game week.

Enjoy. Go Vols.

Tennessee’s greatest area for potential improvement is in sack rate. Vol quarterbacks went down on nearly 10.5% of their pass attempts, the highest percentage at UT in the post-Fulmer era. It continues to amaze that Hendon Hooker still threw just three interceptions on 300+ passing attempts, a Tennessee record.

On the other side of the ball, where can Tennessee improve the most? When teams get in the red zone, keep them out of the end zone.

Last year the Vols finished 119th nationally in red zone touchdown percentage allowed. Opponents had 50 possessions in the red zone against the Vol defense, and scored touchdowns on 36 of them. It stands out in Tennessee’s losses, as you’d expect:

Opponent	Red Zone	TDs
Pittsburgh	7	5
at Florida	5	4
Ole Miss	4	3
at Alabama	7	7
Georgia	4	3
vs Purdue	6	2

Sometimes, you just get beat by a really good team. Against Georgia, there was little opportunity for any of those drives to go differently once they reached the red zone, where bent = broken.

But in each of the other games, there was at least one really good opportunity for Tennessee’s defense to get off the field. It’s these plays – the ones that can make the biggest impact on the scoreboard – that could make the biggest difference in Tennessee’s defensive improvement this year.

Pittsburgh

• The Panthers got on the board by opening the second quarter with a touchdown on 3rd-and-10 from the 11. This cut Tennessee’s lead to 10-7, and was the first of five straight scoring drives for Pitt.

Florida

• On their opening possession, the Gators converted a pair of 3rd-and-4s in the red zone to cap off a touchdown drive.

Ole Miss

• After the fumbled punt in the first quarter, Ole Miss was backed up to 3rd-and-14 at the 15, but a defensive holding penalty extended the drive and set up a touchdown.
• Leading 17-9 in the second quarter, Ole Miss converted a 3rd-and-10 at the 12, punching it in two plays later for a 15-point lead.

Alabama

• With the Vols leading 14-7, Alabama converted a 3rd-and-Goal at the 5 for a tying touchdown
• On their next drive, Bama converted 3rd-and-7 at the 17, eventually taking the lead
• On the last play of the third quarter, Bama had 2nd-and-12 at the 14. They gained eight yards, then Bryce Young ran in for the score on 3rd-and-4 at the 6, making it 31-17.

The good news: against Purdue, Tennessee’s defense turned the Boilermakers away three times in the second quarter. Though they later allowed a touchdown on 3rd-and-Goal from the 10, their red zone work – perhaps less affected by a thin secondary? – was a vast improvement.

Still, that’s nine conversions of 3rd-and-4+ in the red zone in our six losses. And overall, only four opponent drives came away with zero points in the red zone: two against South Alabama, a garbage time drive against South Carolina, and one of the most impactful plays of the year:

If you’re looking for meaningful improvement, there’s plenty of opportunity here. Whoever the Vols are playing close games against this year, these are the plays that can end up making the difference. Will Tennessee’s overall depth make a significant difference here? And will we see this defense able to impose its will and turn more teams away entirely?

Look, when exactly am I supposed to go to the bathroom during these games?

I raised this concern last year, but that was me assuming I’d only have trouble at Neyland. Listen, this offense is so fast, I can’t go in my own home in peace. I will buy anything with that Power T on it, but adult diapers might be the last straw with my wife. Might also be an untapped source of revenue for our athletic department too though.

And I can’t go when players on the other team fake injuries, because I’m too consumed with that white hot rage. Tried to tell y’all bout that Kiffin feller when everybody wanted to go down that road again after Jeremy. I don’t have no conflicting emotions with that guy, ‘cept for the rage and the restroom.

But God bless Josh Heupel for having one of our boys take a little nap after we kick an extra point. Not only is it a victimless crime, it is actively helping us know when it’s safe to go. I truly appreciate that.

And boys, we’re gonna kick a lot of extra points.

If dudes from Bama think we’re goin’ 10-2, that’s 12-0 easy. Y’all think about all the reasons we wanted to believe in these other fellas. The one because he said “britches”, the other cause he said, “aight?” You know why I believe in Josh Heupel? It’s because I watched us score 62 points on Missouri in like five minutes. We scored 28 points before we played a third down, then scored a 35-yard touchdown on the first one. And then, just when I was feeling a little “I don’t know about all this now” about those black uniforms? They put a 35-0 lead on South Carolina the very next week. And listen, one of those teams got Dan Mullen fired, and the other is doing Steve Spurrier’s proverbial cartwheels to be 6-6! When I tell y’all we were three referees away from 10 wins last year, you know I’m telling a higher percentage of the truth than usual!

Also, “I don’t know about all this now,” is what I said about that NIL stuff. Then we got Nico, and now I have taken on a third job to support the ministries of Spyre. I am genuinely concerned about getting a little bored, fellas. I mean, we’re clearly gonna win it all this year, then add the best quarterback in the nation next year? At least if I’m bored, I can use the restroom.

And we’ve already got the best quarterback in the nation this year! Hendon threw fewer interceptions than Peyton By God Manning last season, and no one really even knows what they’re doing in year zero one! He’s gonna come in second in the Heisman for sure. Cedric Tillman might come in third.

Then I hear people saying things like, “How much defense do we even need to play?” And I mean, sure, the real answer is, “One point less than we score,” which means we need to hold opponents to approximately 99 points per game. But fellas, y’all don’t think we’re gonna be better on that end too? We already know Jeremy Banks picked Hendon in a scrimmage, which should automatically qualify him for third-team All-American, at least. Byron Young and Tyler Baron off the edge?

And listen, some of these dudes are grownups. Trevon Flowers turns 23 round about the SEC Championship Game. Hendon turns 25 (!) a week after we win the natty. Old age ain’t just for John Fulkerson. Does Spyre have a pension plan?

Who’s gonna beat us? Who’s gonna threaten us? My greatest hope in the Pitt game is that we get up so much, they let Joe Milton get in there and throw a couple touchdowns, then just start launching balls into the state of Ohio just for fun.

And listen, Florida? We should’ve beaten those guys in ’14, ’15, got ’em in ’16, ’17…so when you say, “They’ve won 16 out of 17!” I hear, “Yeah, but we would’ve won most of those games easy if we had Heupel!” They ain’t no good. I’m making plans right now for where we’re going to celebrate after it’s over, and deep down? So are you.

LSU? We won the last two times we were in Baton Rouge when the game was over the first time! I’m not sure if there will be any Brian Kelly jokes left after they play Florida State, Mississippi State, and Auburn before us. But we’re coming off a bye, so we might score 150.

Bama? Y’all know we almost beat them last year when Hendon gave his all for Tennessee by getting half his teeth knocked out, right? And still threw for 282 and three touchdowns? Imagine what he can do with a full set of teeth!

Kentucky? Wait ’til basketball season. And Georgia? Let me just say, we had three second half drives against those guys that ended inside their 40 yard line. We were close, boys. We were close.

After we do all that, I’m supposed to be concerned about Missouri and South Carolina? If it wasn’t abundantly clear last time, I’m pretty sure we’ll once again make Mrs. Drinkwitz question her husband’s commitment to winning. And South Carolina will probably get to 7-5 this year, maybe add some backflips to the routine, good for them. Maybe we’ll be up less than 35-0 this time.

In Atlanta, y’all do what you want, but if I had my way, we’d get another shot at Ole Miss. I believe Jeremy’s currently unemployed, I don’t think Arkansas State can make the playoff, and Dooley got Butch’s old job as an “analyst” with Saban. But we can still right this wrong with Lane. We can still right a lot of wrongs.

We all know by now that winning the SEC is the real challenge, so pick whoever in the playoff and take the Vols and the over. 15-0, National Champions, son.

And I don’t know about you, but that thing is looking a little wobbly.

The USA Today Coaches’ Poll was released Monday and, to the surprise of some Tennessee fans, the Vols weren’t ranked among the top 25 teams in the country. Instead, fans had to count down three spots to #28, putting the Vols just outside the Top 25, right behind Iowa and Penn State. Also coming in ahead of Tennessee in the poll was border rival Kentucky (#21), as well as Week 2 opponent, Pittsburgh (#16).

So how have the Vols fared in the polls over the years? I took a look back at every poll since 1997 to see where Tennessee was ranked preseason, how they moved week-to-week, and most importantly, where they ended up at season’s end. It was an emotional exercise, complete with great memories: watching James Wilhoit kick a 50-yard field goal to beat Florida my freshman year at UT, or Jauan Jennings beating Jalen Tabor and streaking into the south end zone in 2016. It also had its share of pain: the 2016 loss to Vanderbilt that cost Tennessee a spot in the Sugar Bowl. Or watching a trip to the national championship snatched away by an 8-3 LSU team led by a backup quarterback in the 2001 SEC Championship Game.

Read More: How important is figuring out the #2 RB?

If you don’t have the time to read through each season’s ranking summary, here are a few key facts from my time poring over the polls:

• Tennessee has only finished the season ranked higher than they started six times since 1997:
  • 1998: Started #10, ended #1
  • 2001: started #8, ended #4
  • 2004: started #14, ended #13
  • 2007: started #15, ended #12
  • 2015: started #25, ended #23
  • 2019: started #55 (Coaches’ Poll), ended #35
• The Vols have started the season ranked in the Top 25 and ended it unranked four times since 1997:
  • 2000: #12
  • 2002: #5
  • 2008: #18
  • 2017: #25
• 2020 was the only year since 1997 that the Vols started the season outside the Top 25 (#26) and made it into the rankings, peaking at #12 before the 10-game SEC COVID schedule took its toll.
• The Vols #12 ranking in the final poll of 2007 would be the last time the team would be ranked at season’s end until 2015.
• When the Vols finished the 2007 season ranked #12, it would be 8 full seasons before they would achieve a higher ranking.

Here’s a detailed breakdown by year. Note that all rankings are from the AP Poll, unless otherwise noted.

Year-by-Year Poll Results

1997

Preseason: #5
Final: #7
Highest Rank: #3 (3 weeks)
Lowest Rank: #9 (4 weeks)
Weeks Unranked: 0

Tennessee kicked off the season ranked #5 in the country, and managed to hold a top-10 ranking all season long. The Vols held the #3 ranking three different weeks in Peyton Manning’s final season in orange, and took that ranking into an Orange Bowl matchup with #2 Nebraska. A loss to the Cornhuskers dropped Tennessee to #7 in the final AP poll.

1998

Preseason: #10
Final: #1
Highest Rank: #1 (6 weeks)
Lowest Rank: #10 (preseason)
Weeks Unranked: 0

The Vols only fell in the polls once in 1998, when they dropped from #3 to #4 after a 17-9 victory over Auburn on the Plains in Week 5. There was nowhere to go but up after that; the Vols secured the #1 ranking after taking down UAB in Knoxville on November 7 and rode it all the way to the National Championship. 

1999

Preseason: #2
Final: #9
Highest Rank: #2 (2 weeks)
Lowest Rank: #9 (final)
Weeks Unranked: 0

A team led by National Championship-winning quarterback Tee Martin finished the year 9-3, but an early season loss to #4 Florida in Gainesville, and a 4-point loss to unranked Arkansas in mid-November stifled Tennessee’s hopes to repeat as national champions. The #6 Vols fell to #3 Nebraska in the Fiesta Bowl, ending the season ranked #9 in the country. 

2000

Preseason: #12
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #11 (2 weeks)
Lowest Rank: Unranked 
Weeks Unranked: 6

In Phillip Fulmer’s eighth season with the Vols, the team finished 8-4 (5-3 SEC),  going undefeated in regular season play after freshman quarterback Casey Clausen took the reins against Alabama. However, three early losses to #6 Florida, LSU and #19 Georgia knocked the Vols from the rankings until the final week against Vanderbilt when the #25 Vols squeaked by the Commodores 28-26. The #21 Vols fell to #11 Kansas State in the Cotton Bowl to end the year unranked in the final AP Poll. 

2001

Preseason: #8
Final: #4
Highest Rank: #2 (1 week)
Lowest Rank: #13 (1 week)
Weeks Unranked: 0

“I still have PTSD about 2002. Shoulda been our year to win it all and legitimize ‘98 even more.”

“I took a rose to school the Friday before [the SEC Championship]. So hard to face the Bama fans the following Monday.

”Matty [freakin’] Mauck.”

These were the responses from a group text of Vols fans I’m in as we discussed what could have been from the 2001 season. Despite an early October loss to unranked Georgia that dropped Tennessee to #11, the #2 Vols were a win in Atlanta away from facing #1 Miami in the Rose Bowl, but lost to #20 LSU in the Tigers first trip to the SEC Championship. In fact, since it was first played in 1992, LSU’s ‘01 win was the only time the SEC Championship has prevented an SEC team from playing for a national championship. 

2002

Preseason: #5
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: 4 (4 weeks)
Lowest Rank: Unranked
Weeks Unranked: 7

Tennessee never beat a ranked team in ‘02, finishing the season 8-4 (5-3 SEC). Losses to #10 Florida, #6 Georgia and #19 Alabama pushed the Vols to #25 headed to a November 9 matchup with #2 Miami. A 26-3 Hurricanes drubbing in front of 108,000+ at Neyland Stadium knocked the Vols out of the Top 25 for good, although the team did finish #27 in the final Coaches’ Poll.

2003

Preseason: #12
Final: #15
Highest Rank: #7 (3 weeks)
Lowest Rank: #22 (1 week)
Weeks Unranked: 0

Behind Clausen, now in his senior year, the Vols finished 9-3 (6-2 SEC) with a win over #17 Florida, and revenge against #6 Miami for the previous year’s shellacking in Knoxville. Unfortunately, the Vols fell from #7 to #22 after back-to-back losses to unranked Auburn and #8 Georgia. UT got hot and snapped off six wins in a row to work their way to #6 before losing to Clemson in Atlanta. 

2004

Preseason: #14
Final: #15
Highest Rank: #6 (1 week)
Lowest Rank: #17 (2 weeks)
Weeks Unranked: 0

After a two big wins over UNLV and Louisiana Tech, and a James Wilhoit field goal to beat Florida, the Vols worked their way to #10 in the country, setting up a top-10 matchup between the Vols and #8 Auburn. With College Gameday on campus, the Tigers’ Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown ran up and down Shields-Watkins Field, handing the Vols a 34-10 beating. Tennessee slipped to #17 the week after, but a win at #3 Georgia turned things around. #15 Tennessee fell in a rematch with #3 Auburn in Atlanta, before knocking off #22 Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl, to end the year at #15. 

2005

Preseason: #3
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #3 (preseason)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 7

With quarterback Erik Ainge entering his second season on Rocky Top, hopes were high in Knoxville, with a preseason #3 ranking to match. A close win over UAB, followed by a loss to #5 Florida (the first in a long string to the Gators) knocked the Vols down to #10. After wins at LSU and against Ole Miss, the Vols then dropped three in a row to #5 Georgia, #5 Alabama and South Carolina to drop all the way out of the rankings. Losses to Notre Dame and Vanderbilt sealed the team’s fate and the Vols missed a bowl game for the first time since 1998.

2006

Preseason: #23
Final: #25
Highest Rank: #7 (1 week)
Lowest Rank: #25 (final)
Weeks Unranked: 0

Despite their disastrous 2005 campaign, the Vols managed to snag a Top-25 ranking in the preseason AP Poll. A dominant win over #9 Cal in Knoxville catapulted the Vols to #11 in the country, but a narrow win over Air Force, followed by a 1-point loss to Florida dropped Tennessee to #15. A streak of 5 wins, including victories over #10 Georgia and the team’s last win over Alabama, pushed Tennessee back up to #8, but losses to #13 LSU and #11 Arkansas dropped Tennessee to #22. UT climbed up to #17 after beating Vandy and Kentucky, but a loss to #17 Penn State pushed the Vols down to #25 in the final poll. 

2007

Preseason: #15
Final: #12
Highest Rank: #12 (final)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 4

The Vols traveled west to take on Cal in the opening game of the 2007 campaign, and the Golden Bears got payback against Tennessee for their 2006 loss with a 45-31 win in Berkeley. The loss dropped Tennessee to #24, and #3 Florida would knock the Vols out of the rankings with a 59-20 dismantling in Gainesville. After a win over #12 Georgia, the Vols scratched back to #25, but a loss to first-year Bama head coach Nick Saban in Tuscaloosa pushed UT out of the rankings. Five straight wins got the Vols to #14 and the SEC Championship against LSU. After losing to the eventual national champion Tigers, the #16 Vols downed #18 Wisconsin to secure their #12 ranking. Little did fans know that the #12 slot would be their highest ranking until 2016. 

2008

Preseason: #18
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #18 (preseason)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 16

The beginning of the dark years. The Vols entered the 2008 season ranked #18. An overtime loss to unranked UCLA at the Rose Bowl knocked Tennessee from the Top 25. They wouldn’t be back for six whole seasons.

2009

Preseason: #52 (Coaches’ Poll)
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #35 (Coaches’ Poll)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 16

A win over #21 South Carolina on Halloween in black Adidas jerseys was the highpoint of the season, which ended with a 37-14 loss to #12 Virginia Tech in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.

2010

Preseason: Not Ranked
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: Not Ranked
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 16

Following Lane Kiffin’s brief stint on Rocky Top, the Derek Dooley Show came to town. Tennessee would finish the year 6-6 (3-5 SEC), failing to beat any ranked teams and falling to North Carolina in the Music City Bowl.

2011

Preseason: #40 (Coaches’ Poll)
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #32 (Coaches’ Poll)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 16

In Dooley’s second season, Tennessee flirted with the “Also Receiving Votes” column of the Coaches’ Poll for a few weeks. Outside of a win over #12 (FCS) Montana, though, Tennessee faithful had little to cheer about, as the team finished 5-7 (1-7 SEC).

2012

Preseason: #41 (Coaches’ Poll)
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #23
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 15

The Derek Dooley Experiment, complete with hygiene lessons and World War II analogies, mercifully ended before the last week of the season, but not before the Vols racked up another 1-7 SEC season, beating only Kentucky under interim head coach Jim Chaney. Big wins over NC State and Georgia State had the Vols at #23, before the team suffered its annual loss to Florida in Week 3.

2013

Preseason: #50 (Coaches’ Poll)
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #43 (Coaches’ Poll)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 16

Butch Jones got a signature “Year 1” win over #11 South Carolina in Knoxville, but only managed one other SEC win, a 27-14 victory in Lexington. Early wins over Austin Peay and Western Kentucky pushed Tennessee up to #43 in the Coaches’ Poll, but they didn’t make any poll noise after that.

2014

Preseason: Not Ranked
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: Not Ranked
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 16

Tennessee managed to eek out three SEC wins against South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Kentucky, and played #12 Georgia close in Athens, but the Vols didn’t manage to earn a vote in either poll. The team did finish the year over .500 with a win over Iowa in the TaxSlayer Bowl.

2015

Preseason: #25
Final: #22
Highest Rank: #22 (final)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 5

Back in the preseason Top 25 for the first time since 2008, the Vols’ time there would be short-lived after a crushing double-overtime loss to Baker Mayfield and #19 Oklahoma. Losses to unranked Florida and Arkansas pushed UT out of the “Also Receiving Votes” column. A five-game winning streak leading into a huge 45-6 win over #12 Northwestern in the Outback Bowl led announcer Mark Jones to predict 2016 would be the year of the Volunteers. Tennessee would finish the year ranked #22, their first spot in the final poll since 2007. 

2016

Preseason: #9
Final: #24
Highest Rank: #9 (2 weeks)
Lowest Rank: #30 (Coaches’ Poll)
Weeks Unranked: 5

Mark Jones was half-correct. The first half of the 2016 season would be the year of the Volunteer. Tennessee started the year off white-hot, tallying five straight victories, including a win over #19 Florida and #25 Georgia (thanks Jauan). Despite a double-overtime loss to Texas A&M, the Vols held onto their #9 ranking going into a contest with #1 Alabama in Knoxville. A 39-point loss to the Crimson TIde, followed by a loss to unranked South Carolina in Columbia knocked Tennessee from the ranks. They would claw their way back to #24 before a loss to Vanderbilt cost them their ranking and a shot at the Sugar Bowl. The team managed to salvage a second consecutive final rank – this time #24 – with a 38-24 win over Nebraska in the Music City Bowl.

2017

Preseason: #25
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #23 (1 week)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 13

What a disaster. Ranked #25 coming into the season, Tennessee would finish 4-8 (0-8 SEC). Early wins over Georgia Tech and Indiana State moved Tennessee up to #23 in the AP Poll before a 26-20 loss to Florida on a last second touchdown pass by Feleipe Franks knocked the Vols from the rankings. A 41-0 loss to Georgia two weeks later closed the door on Tennessee’s hopes to regain their ranking. Butch Jones would be shown the door before a November 18 showdown with LSU.

2018

Preseason: Not Ranked
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: Not Ranked
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 15

Despite wins over #21 Auburn in October and #12 Kentucky in November, Tennessee failed to sniff the rankings in 2018, ending the season with a 5-7 (2-6 SEC) record, including a 38-13 loss to Vanderbilt to close the season with a whimper.

2019

Preseason: #55 (Coaches’ Poll)
Final: #35 (Coaches’ Poll)
Highest Rank: #35 (final; Coaches’ Poll)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 15

An opening week disaster against Georgia State prevented the Vols from a shot at a nine-win season. UT failed to beat a ranked team in 2019, falling to #9 Florida, #3 Georgia and #1 Alabama by a combined score of 112-30. A bowl win against Indiana garnered the Vols a few votes in the final Coaches’ Poll of the year,

2020

Preseason: #25
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #12
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 10

Facing the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic and a 10-game SEC slate, the Vols were ranked #16 before their first game due to scheduling differences. Tennessee climbed to #14 after wins over South Carolina and Missouri, but six straight losses quickly ended that. Tennessee managed to scratch out a win over Vanderbilt in December, before losing the final contest of the year to Texas A&M. 

2021

Preseason: Not Ranked
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #36 (Coaches’ Poll)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 15

Despite flashes of brilliance under first year head coach Josh Heupel, the Vols never strung together enough victories together to make much poll noise in 2021. The highlight of the year came in an upset of #18 Kentucky in Lexington. And near misses against Pittsburgh, #13 Ole Miss and Purdue gave UT fans hope for the future.