Category Archives: Football

Last week some time, the SEC Network rolled out a video series that showed its analysts making game-by-game predictions for the season. In the Tennessee edition of that series, Matt Stinchcomb had the Vols going 6-6, losing to cross-divisional opponents Alabama and LSU, SEC East rivals Florida and Georgia, and Kentucky and Missouri to boot.

It’s an interesting exercise and an effective way to pass the time during the offseason, but it’s more helpful to do the same thing for every team in the SEC East to see who is most likely to head to Atlanta to represent the division.

Here’s my version of that exercise:

Tennessee has no margin for error

If the Vols want to control their own destiny, they basically just need to beat both Florida and Georgia (and then not lose other games they shouldn’t). If you assume Tennessee loses to both Alabama and LSU in the West, then you’re already at 6-2, not even accounting for the Florida and Georgia games.

Looking at Georgia’s schedule, the only game you really feel comfortable putting in the loss category is the Auburn game. For the 6-2 Vols to catch the Bulldogs, somebody needs to give them a second SEC loss and Tennessee needs to not lose any additional SEC games. So, Georgia needs to lose to Auburn and Tennessee for the Vols to get ahead of them. They’re really not likely to lose another SEC game unless it’s to Florida. More on the implications of that in a minute.

That also means, of course, that Tennessee not only has to beat Georgia, it has to beat Florida, too. If the Vols fall to 5-3, they’re likely behind Georgia at a likely 6-2 despite beating them head-to-head. At that point, the only real candidate to give Georgia its third loss is Florida. But if the Gators beat both Tennessee and Georgia, then they’re likely at 7-1 and the Vols getting ahead of Georgia doesn’t do them any good.

Bottom line, the Vols need to beat both Florida and Georgia to make it to the SEC Championship.

But wait. What about LSU?

The above scenarios all assume that the Vols lose to the LSU Tigers on November 18, but that may not actually be as much of a given as it seems. Sure, the preseason statistics all give a not insignificant edge to the Tigers, but LSU is a lot like Tennessee this year in that nobody really knows what to make of them. They could be every bit as good as their talent suggests they should be. Or, they could fail to live up to expectations or even totally self-destruct by November.

So yeah, if you assume the Tigers are as good as they should be, then Tennessee essentially starts the season with two losses (Alabama and LSU) while Florida and Georgia each start with only one (LSU and Auburn, respectively). In that scenario, the Vols are at a disadvantage that really can only be overcome by beating both Florida and Georgia and not losing any other games.

But, if you instead assume that LSU is a 50/50 game, then the Vols’ disadvantage in the SEC East is somewhat mitigated. In that case, the Vols start the season with one loss (Alabama) and three 50/50 games (LSU, Florida, and Georgia). Georgia also starts with one loss (Auburn), but has only two 50/50 games (Tennessee and Florida), and Florida starts with three 50/50 games (LSU, Tennessee, and Georgia), but zero losses. Tennessee is still at a disadvantage if LSU is merely good instead of great, but the Vols would be in somewhat better shape than under the alternative.

If you can only get one, get Georgia

Even if the Vols manage to win against LSU, the Vols’ hopes are still tied to what happens with the Gators and the Bulldogs, and Georgia appears to matter most.

If Tennessee beats Florida but loses to Georgia, the Vols would likely be 6-2 and ahead of the Gators, who would likely be 5-3. But the Bulldogs would likely be 7-1 and ahead of everybody.

On the other hand, if Tennessee beats Georgia but loses to Florida, all three teams would likely be 6-2, and we’d have rock-paper-scissors with each team having only one head-to-head over another. Florida and Georgia would likely have late losses to Florida State and Auburn, while Tennessee would have a late win over LSU, and perhaps the division tiebreakers that rely on rankings would work in the Vols’ favor.

So if you have to pick one game to win between Florida and Georgia, pick Georgia.

Win ’em all

There are, of course, countless scenarios heading into the season, and if the Vols win every game, nothing else matters. But with a cross-divisional schedule that (inappropriately, in my view) counts toward divisional standings and is less favorable than those of its SEC East rivals, it appears to make the head-to-head matchups with SEC East Rivals all-or-nothing propositions for the Vols.

If you can get both, get both.

If you can only get one, get Georgia.

And if you can’t get either, hope for chaos and magic against LSU late in the season.

Earlier this month we looked at Tennessee’s win probabilities using ESPN’s FPI and SB Nation’s S&P+. Their formulas assign a win probability for each game (somewhere between 7% against Alabama and 99% against Indiana State); add up those percentages and you’ll get their projection for Tennessee’s regular season wins.

Assigning percentages to each game is a more interesting and more reliable exercise to determine how you think the Vols will do this year; again, it’s one thing to say you think the Vols will go 9-3 with these nine wins and those three losses, but it makes more sense to assign a percentage to each opponent.

We don’t have fancy formulas, but here are our staff picks for Tennessee’s regular season using win probability (each number represents the percentage chance we give Tennessee to win):

Our staff is more or less on board with 8-4; Dylan is particularly more confident in wins over Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt, while Joel is particularly less confident against LSU, but the numbers are fairly close everywhere else.

What about you? Find out below (thanks to Joel for the form wizardry) by selecting the percentage chance you give Tennessee to win each game to see your season projection, and be sure to submit it for our site average we’ll release next week.

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Hey, y’all think about cutting a power T out of them eclipse glasses so it’d be burned onto your retina forever?

…

…uh, yeah, me neither.

Really though, I figure I’ve had enough medical problems anyway. But listen, before you even ask, I’m fine. I know I was in the hospital a long time there, and still nobody believes me. They can call it a coma or an “event” or whatever fancy medical mumbo-jumbo they want. But I’m telling you, boys:  when Jauan caught that ball, the Lord took me straight up to heaven.

Now at the time I thought I had been raptured, so I politely asked the Lord if he could please send me back and maybe hold off on his return at least until we beat Alabama. But the Lord’s ways remain mysterious:  when I woke up in that hospital bed, turns out I hadn’t been raptured and somehow the Vols had lost four games. But I believe God was still looking out for me, because if I’d witnessed us giving up 45 points and 600 yards to Vanderbilt, that would’ve been the end for me anyway. “Shurmur” sounds like the noise I make through clinched teeth so I don’t say the real bad words in front of my wife, and that day I would have Shurmured myself right to death.

So I wake up and discover we’ve hired a new athletic director. Listen, I may not run the Pilot, but I buy my gas there because some percentage of that $2.07 per gallon is going back to the football program. I put money in the offering plate to beat the devil and I pump at Pilot to beat Alabama, and any man that don’t isn’t VFL. So I may not be as high up the ladder as the Haslams, but we’re all in the same food chain and all our voices should be heard.

I heard they used a committee to hire John Currie, who I like because he talksrealfast even if he ain’t Coach Fulmer. But next time there’s a major decision, I’d like to feel that the common man and the common fan have a voice at the table. They put Peyton on that committee, which is a good start, but we need more people we know. People we can trust. People who bleed orange and are tired of feeling anemic for the last ten years. So I’d like to make a few suggestions for additions to the athletic department executive committee:

Jon Gruden – sorry, reflex.

Dolly Parton – Should’ve just hired her to do the job outright last time we had an opening. She might be too busy saving God’s country to help save our athletic department, which I have no doubt she could do. I watched that Coat of Many Christmases so many times I feel like the best way to tell people about Jesus is to tell them about Dolly. Don’t tell me you wouldn’t buy a funnel cake and saltwater taffy at Neyland Stadium. This could be the year for the real thing.

Dave Ramsey – Revenue, son. Would prevent ridiculous buyouts and make sure fans like me can buy a coke and a hot dog at Neyland without dipping into the emergency fund. Frees up everyone else to just worry about football, which hopefully frees up at least one person to think about basketball.

Kevin Nash – Six-time World Champion and VFL. Once punched a head coach, so, you know, maybe he doesn’t chair the committee. Experienced in hostile takeovers. My wife says he’s also in something called Magic Mike, which is apparently not a film about Dave Hart’s predecessor.  

If any of these parties are unable or unwilling, I remain on standby. Come on, Mr. Haslam. I promise to start buying the premium gasoline if you put me in that room.

I get that my credentials may not be so hot, but I’ve been raising funds this off-season by selling these t-shirts (rips open jacket to reveal “THE BEACHES OF DORMADY”; shirt is of such low quality you can see it’s got “GUARANTANIMO BAY” printed on the other side). They’re reversible!

Look, you know the reason we won in ‘98 is because all them boys were so angry about being forgotten when all the ‘97 team went pro right? Same thing this year, son! It don’t matter if it’s QD or JG, he’s basically gonna be Tee Martin all over again. John Kelly is like a combination of Tony Thompson, Travis Stephens, Montario Hardesty, and basically every other back who’s been overlooked but finished strong. I like it when I hear a back runs angry, because that’s typically how I’m watching.

I literally cannot imagine what Jauan Jennings can do to top what he did to Jalen Tabor and the entire state of Georgia. (Author’s note: last year basically was the idiot optimist version of Jauan Jennings. I can’t come up with anything better or less probable than what he already did in real life. I salute you, sir.) Does he have boots made of yellow jackets yet? That dude is my favorite Vol since at least Bill Duff. At least.

Do you know we have Todd Kelly’s kid, Dale Carter’s kid, and Eric Berry’s brother all at the same position?! They call that the “safety”, but ain’t nothing safe about this defense. Except, you know, this year they’re not gonna be safe for the other team. Yeah.

It wouldn’t matter if we’re playing Georgia Tech or the Atlanta By God Falcons in that first game, it’s an automatic W since it ain’t in the Georgia Dome. I’m a little worried about having to face Larry Bird on short rest after that, but I have faith in our coaching staff.

Florida? HA! I’ve spent so many hours watching the replay of the second half it’s essentially my part-time job. They ain’t no good. Then we’ve got UMass, who I swear was still on probation from that Calipari business but whatever.

So I’ve got my list of enemies, and it ain’t nothing new. This year we get to trade a shot at Lane Kiffin for a shot at Ed Orgeron; either way when we win I’m taking my shirt off. Will Muschamp is on that list, who cheated last year by playing a quarterback who was taking driver’s ed while ours was taking global thermonuclear war or spaceship flying or probably both. But no matter what we do, we cannot get a shot at Derek By God Dooley, so we’re gonna have to take it out on Georgia instead, again.

People keep saying we should worry about Kentucky or Missouri, but this ain’t basketball or whatever Missouri is good at. And there’s nothing worse I can say about Vanderbilt than the truth: they’re looking at downsizing to an even smaller stadium and sharing it with soccer. Soccer, boys.

Whether it’s in Tuscaloosa or Atlanta, it still won’t be the same to beat Alabama without Kiffin. But maybe we’ll catch Florida Atlantic in the playoff. Either way, this is the year boys. 15-0, National Champions. And Back-to-Back Champions of Life.

The Idiot Optimist’s Guide to:

2016: Dobbs for President

2015: Kool-Aid Light

2014: Do you think it’s possible Butch Jones and Jon Gruden are the same person?

2013: The Kool-Aid tasted like bamboo

2012: I’m pretty sure me and you and six of your friends from the message board could coach this team to a championship.

2011: Last year was Year Zero, and everybody knows zero is not a real number.

2010: If I go down to the Big Orange Caravan and look Derek Dooley in the eye, he’s not going to be hiding behind some sunglasses.