Win Probability: What Will Tennessee’s Record Be?

Earlier this month we looked at Tennessee’s win probabilities using ESPN’s FPI and SB Nation’s S&P+. Their formulas assign a win probability for each game (somewhere between 7% against Alabama and 99% against Indiana State); add up those percentages and you’ll get their projection for Tennessee’s regular season wins.

Assigning percentages to each game is a more interesting and more reliable exercise to determine how you think the Vols will do this year; again, it’s one thing to say you think the Vols will go 9-3 with these nine wins and those three losses, but it makes more sense to assign a percentage to each opponent.

We don’t have fancy formulas, but here are our staff picks for Tennessee’s regular season using win probability (each number represents the percentage chance we give Tennessee to win):

Will Joel Brad Dylan STAFF AVG
vs Georgia Tech 60% 60% 65% 80% 66%
Indiana State 100% 98% 95% 100% 98%
at Florida 40% 51% 55% 55% 50%
UMass 100% 98% 95% 100% 98%
Georgia 50% 45% 45% 55% 49%
South Carolina 70% 75% 60% 65% 68%
at Alabama 15% 10% 20% 10% 14%
at Kentucky 70% 65% 60% 70% 66%
Southern Miss 95% 90% 90% 100% 94%
at Missouri 75% 70% 70% 75% 73%
LSU 40% 25% 40% 45% 38%
Vanderbilt 75% 70% 65% 90% 75%
WINS 7.90 7.57 7.60 8.45 7.88

Our staff is more or less on board with 8-4; Dylan is particularly more confident in wins over Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt, while Joel is particularly less confident against LSU, but the numbers are fairly close everywhere else.

What about you? Find out below (thanks to Joel for the form wizardry) by selecting the percentage chance you give Tennessee to win each game to see your season projection, and be sure to submit it for our site average we’ll release next week.

[gravityform id=”6″ title=”true” description=”true”]

 

Vols video roundup: Rick Barnes, Christian Coleman, Walt Wells

Head hoops coach Rick Barnes talks about his team’s recent trip to Spain and France and previews the upcoming season.

Christian Coleman also spoke to reporters about his performance at the London 2017 IAAF World Championships:

Offensive line coach Walt Wells knows he has to get his guys ready:

.

 

The Idiot Optimist’s Guide to the 2017 Season

Hey, y’all think about cutting a power T out of them eclipse glasses so it’d be burned onto your retina forever?

…uh, yeah, me neither.

Really though, I figure I’ve had enough medical problems anyway. But listen, before you even ask, I’m fine. I know I was in the hospital a long time there, and still nobody believes me. They can call it a coma or an “event” or whatever fancy medical mumbo-jumbo they want. But I’m telling you, boys:  when Jauan caught that ball, the Lord took me straight up to heaven.

Now at the time I thought I had been raptured, so I politely asked the Lord if he could please send me back and maybe hold off on his return at least until we beat Alabama. But the Lord’s ways remain mysterious:  when I woke up in that hospital bed, turns out I hadn’t been raptured and somehow the Vols had lost four games. But I believe God was still looking out for me, because if I’d witnessed us giving up 45 points and 600 yards to Vanderbilt, that would’ve been the end for me anyway. “Shurmur” sounds like the noise I make through clinched teeth so I don’t say the real bad words in front of my wife, and that day I would have Shurmured myself right to death.

So I wake up and discover we’ve hired a new athletic director. Listen, I may not run the Pilot, but I buy my gas there because some percentage of that $2.07 per gallon is going back to the football program. I put money in the offering plate to beat the devil and I pump at Pilot to beat Alabama, and any man that don’t isn’t VFL. So I may not be as high up the ladder as the Haslams, but we’re all in the same food chain and all our voices should be heard.

I heard they used a committee to hire John Currie, who I like because he talksrealfast even if he ain’t Coach Fulmer. But next time there’s a major decision, I’d like to feel that the common man and the common fan have a voice at the table. They put Peyton on that committee, which is a good start, but we need more people we know. People we can trust. People who bleed orange and are tired of feeling anemic for the last ten years. So I’d like to make a few suggestions for additions to the athletic department executive committee:

Jon Gruden – sorry, reflex.

Dolly Parton – Should’ve just hired her to do the job outright last time we had an opening. She might be too busy saving God’s country to help save our athletic department, which I have no doubt she could do. I watched that Coat of Many Christmases so many times I feel like the best way to tell people about Jesus is to tell them about Dolly. Don’t tell me you wouldn’t buy a funnel cake and saltwater taffy at Neyland Stadium. This could be the year for the real thing.

Dave Ramsey – Revenue, son. Would prevent ridiculous buyouts and make sure fans like me can buy a coke and a hot dog at Neyland without dipping into the emergency fund. Frees up everyone else to just worry about football, which hopefully frees up at least one person to think about basketball.

Kevin Nash – Six-time World Champion and VFL. Once punched a head coach, so, you know, maybe he doesn’t chair the committee. Experienced in hostile takeovers. My wife says he’s also in something called Magic Mike, which is apparently not a film about Dave Hart’s predecessor.  

If any of these parties are unable or unwilling, I remain on standby. Come on, Mr. Haslam. I promise to start buying the premium gasoline if you put me in that room.

I get that my credentials may not be so hot, but I’ve been raising funds this off-season by selling these t-shirts (rips open jacket to reveal “THE BEACHES OF DORMADY”; shirt is of such low quality you can see it’s got “GUARANTANIMO BAY” printed on the other side). They’re reversible!

Look, you know the reason we won in ‘98 is because all them boys were so angry about being forgotten when all the ‘97 team went pro right? Same thing this year, son! It don’t matter if it’s QD or JG, he’s basically gonna be Tee Martin all over again. John Kelly is like a combination of Tony Thompson, Travis Stephens, Montario Hardesty, and basically every other back who’s been overlooked but finished strong. I like it when I hear a back runs angry, because that’s typically how I’m watching.

I literally cannot imagine what Jauan Jennings can do to top what he did to Jalen Tabor and the entire state of Georgia. (Author’s note: last year basically was the idiot optimist version of Jauan Jennings. I can’t come up with anything better or less probable than what he already did in real life. I salute you, sir.) Does he have boots made of yellow jackets yet? That dude is my favorite Vol since at least Bill Duff. At least.

Do you know we have Todd Kelly’s kid, Dale Carter’s kid, and Eric Berry’s brother all at the same position?! They call that the “safety”, but ain’t nothing safe about this defense. Except, you know, this year they’re not gonna be safe for the other team. Yeah.

It wouldn’t matter if we’re playing Georgia Tech or the Atlanta By God Falcons in that first game, it’s an automatic W since it ain’t in the Georgia Dome. I’m a little worried about having to face Larry Bird on short rest after that, but I have faith in our coaching staff.

Florida? HA! I’ve spent so many hours watching the replay of the second half it’s essentially my part-time job. They ain’t no good. Then we’ve got UMass, who I swear was still on probation from that Calipari business but whatever.

So I’ve got my list of enemies, and it ain’t nothing new. This year we get to trade a shot at Lane Kiffin for a shot at Ed Orgeron; either way when we win I’m taking my shirt off. Will Muschamp is on that list, who cheated last year by playing a quarterback who was taking driver’s ed while ours was taking global thermonuclear war or spaceship flying or probably both. But no matter what we do, we cannot get a shot at Derek By God Dooley, so we’re gonna have to take it out on Georgia instead, again.

People keep saying we should worry about Kentucky or Missouri, but this ain’t basketball or whatever Missouri is good at. And there’s nothing worse I can say about Vanderbilt than the truth: they’re looking at downsizing to an even smaller stadium and sharing it with soccer. Soccer, boys.

Whether it’s in Tuscaloosa or Atlanta, it still won’t be the same to beat Alabama without Kiffin. But maybe we’ll catch Florida Atlantic in the playoff. Either way, this is the year boys. 15-0, National Champions. And Back-to-Back Champions of Life.

 

The Idiot Optimist’s Guide to:

2016: Dobbs for President

2015: Kool-Aid Light

2014: Do you think it’s possible Butch Jones and Jon Gruden are the same person?

2013: The Kool-Aid tasted like bamboo

2012: I’m pretty sure me and you and six of your friends from the message board could coach this team to a championship.

2011: Last year was Year Zero, and everybody knows zero is not a real number.

2010: If I go down to the Big Orange Caravan and look Derek Dooley in the eye, he’s not going to be hiding behind some sunglasses.

Report: Vols receiver Josh Smith suffers collarbone injury

Mike Griffith is reporting that Tennessee receiver Josh Smith suffered a collarbone injury in Sunday’s practice and will undergo more tests Monday.

Griffith cites an unnamed souorce in reporting this news, and there are few details. It looks like we’ll have to wait until tomorrow to get confirmation and additional details about how severe the injury might be and how long he might be out.
Smith, who has had more than his share of injury troubles in the past, was competing for the starting gig at slot receiver, and it now looks like sophore Tyler Byrd is the favorite to start at that spot in two weeks against Georgia Tech.

Gameday Today: Is Georgia Tech worth it, Shawn Shamburger, and Eeyore tails all around

In today’s Vols link roundup, we wonder whether playing Georgia Tech is a good idea, celebrate with Shawn Shamburger, and catch up with Mike Gundy, who’s reportedly no longer 40.

Should we be playing Georgia Tech at all?

This should not be news to anyone except those who are just now emerging from their football hibernation, but the Vols opening opponent this year is Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets play that nasty cut-blocking, triple-option, hide-the-football style of offense that flummoxes opponents and is hard on the lower extremities of prized defensive linemen. Sure, history shows that having extra time to prepare makes it easier, and Dave Hart did us a favor by insisting that the Vols only play the Yellow Jackets in a season-opener, but there are perils afoot.

Joe Rexrode of USA Today/KNS says that maybe we shouldn’t be playing the game anyway. A few compelling quotes:

“. . . the question of whether this game was worth it will be asked 12 days later if the Vols don’t win at Florida. By necessity, Georgia Tech has taken up a chunk of the preseason time that would have been spent on global defensive construction.

“It’s a game you don’t play if you don’t have to play it. By the time camp ends and the Vols get to the start of their first game week on Aug. 28, Shoop said four days will have been spent solely on Georgia Tech. He’s sprinkling in looks from other teams on the schedule as well, as he always does, but the flexbone demands devotion.

“It is misdirection and cut blocks and deception and cut blocks and the occasional play-action bomb, followed by a few more cut blocks.

“The cut block is a big element, and we’ve worked a lot on that,” said Shoop, who can’t relish the idea of blockers diving at his guys’ knees all night, after losing so many of his key guys to injury in 2016.”

Um, yeah. What about all that? Folks will not only be embracing hindsight if the Vols don’t beat Florida, they’ll be asking questions immediately if we lose a d-tackle in the opener. And just how much time does it really take away from preparation for the SEC games that matter more?

I’m guessing, though, that four days in the grand scheme of things isn’t an over-investment in GT prep. It’s not that much more than a regular game-week prep, so four days doesn’t sound like “too much.” Plus, you can probably make up some ground the following week by transitioning immediately to Florida and assuming you’re already ready enough for Indiana State. If you can’t beat the Sycamores with a vanilla Florida game plan, you have bigger problems.

So, as long as nobody gets hurt, it’s probably fine.

Nobody get hurt, okay?

Shawn Shamburger

Flying side bump to freshman cornerback Shawn Shamburger, who had his black helmet stripe removed Wednesday evening. According to Micah Abernathy, he and fellow freshman Cheyenne Labruzza are both “always trying to get ahead of the older guys, so they’ll both be good.”

And there’s also this bit of news that has made me giddy this morning:

“In terms of Shawn Shamburger, he’s an individual who’s really stepped up in the last few practices,” Jones said. “He’s really made his presence known at the corner position. The other night, I really liked the way he filled in run support. We challenged him with some deep balls, and he was able to play the ball in the air and find the blind spot, which we talk about, with turning your head in coverage.

Emphasis mine, because oh, how we longed for a DB to turn around last fall.

Quick Hits

 

Vols video roundup: Peyton, the Wolf bros, and John Kelly runs through noodles

Peyton, wearing that same Cutter & Buck polo he always wears on Rocky Top (hey, I have one, too; it’s a nice shirt), has some words of wisdom for the team:

The Wolf brothers enjoy a little air time on ESPN talking about Eli’s shiny new scholly:

Hey, look! It’s John Kelly running through a giant bowl of pasta in super slo-mo!

It’s also nice to see some practice by the d-line against that nasty cut-block stuff.

And more practice highlights from this afternoon, including the dreaded green rubberbands:

Brett Kendrick, Micah Abernathy, and Trevor Daniel talk to reporters after practice this afternoon:

Did you miss Derek Barnett’s third sack last night? Here ’tis:

Leading returning rusher Dedrick Mills dismissed from Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech announced this afternoon that it has dismissed leading Yellow Jackets rusher Dedrick Mills from the team for a violation of team rules.

Mills ran for 771 yards and 12 touchdowns last season, and was named to the preseason All-ACC team. He missed three games in 2016 due to two other suspensions for violations of unspecified team rules.

Georgia Tech did win all three games that Mills missed last season, but he figured to be a key cog in the crazy system this fall. According to ESPN, the other B-backs on the Yellow Jackets roster “have combined for just 14 career carries, 13 of which came from senior Brady Swilling, who was just awarded a scholarship this week after four years as a walk-on.” Of course, a B-back in the GT system is just one position of about 11 that might run the ball, but still.

As we and others have said on multiple occasions over the summer, the problem with playing Georgia Tech isn’t necessarily the talent but the system, and the loss of one player won’t change that. Still, losing one of your key guys this close to the opener has to be bad news for the Yellow Jackets.

Where do we set the bar for John Kelly?

Earlier this week Jimmy Hyams quoted some of Tennessee’s offensive linemen saying they wanted John Kelly to get 2,000 yards this season. Perhaps they’re unaware that no one at Tennessee has ever run for even 1,500 yards in a single season, but hey, aim high!

It’s not fair to Kelly to call his sophomore season a good news/bad news campaign. He is Exhibit A in the, “Just because they were playing behind someone great doesn’t mean they can’t be great,” argument for Team 121. It was no sin to be third team behind Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara in their final seasons in Knoxville. The “bad news” side of the equation is, when he did get his chances, most of Kelly’s productivity came against lesser competition:  only six carries in the first five games plus Alabama, none against Florida or Georgia. Most of his 630 yards last year came against Texas A&M, Nebraska, and the late October-November stretch that didn’t feature a Top 50 defense.

The good news is those 630 yards came on only 98 carries. That’s 6.43 yards per carry. And when you break out the media guide and compare that to what the leading running back has done at Tennessee since 1980, it’s very good news indeed:

Year Back Att Yds YPC
1993 Charlie Garner 159 1161 7.30
2006 LaMarcus Coker 108 696 6.44
2016 John Kelly 98 630 6.43
1994 James Stewart 170 1028 6.05
1992 Charlie Garner 154 928 6.03
1989 Chuck Webb 209 1236 5.91
1997 Jamal Lewis 232 1364 5.88
1983 Johnnie Jones 191 1116 5.84
1990 Tony Thompson 219 1261 5.76
2004 Gerald Riggs 193 1107 5.74

 

First of all, let’s all tip our cap to Charlie Garner’s 1993 campaign. You can make an argument that the ’93 Vols were Tennessee’s most dangerous team of the decade; put a future Pro Bowler like Garner in the backfield with the Heisman runner-up at quarterback, and you get fireworks.

LaMarcus Coker is an interesting comparison for John Kelly. Coker’s 2006 season came as part of a crowded backfield with Arian Foster and Montario Hardesty, and much of his success came against lesser opponents: 417 of his 696 yards came against Marshall, Memphis, and Vanderbilt; 176 of those yards on two runs. He was dismissed from the team the following season while still competing with Foster and Hardesty. But John Kelly has the lead back role all to himself this fall.

Having historically great numbers against below average competition is no guarantee. It’s what makes Kelly both so intriguing and so difficult to project this fall. As he and the line are chasing numbers, Tennessee’s single season rushing record can be had if he averages 113 yards per game. As the lead back in what should continue to be an up-tempo offense, that’s not out of the question. It’s strange to think about something like that just a year after being so sure we were going to see the career record fall to Jalen Hurd. School records aren’t a fair expectation, but it might not be an exaggeration.

What can we expect from John Kelly this fall? He’ll run hard and his linemen talk like they’ll genuinely enjoy blocking for him. That’s always a good sign. Maybe he’ll settle at solid and some of the Vols’ talented freshmen will get to make some hay as well. But there is at least the potential for something special in Tennessee’s backfield from #4.

Gameday Today: The Vols quarterback battle continues

The Vols quarterback battle continues, a happy pack of Wolfs, a host of quick hits, and a video roundup, all in today’s Vols link roundup.

Quarterbacks

Quarterback Jarrett Guarantano, who is reportedly running a close second to Quinten Dormady for the starting job, reportedly had a really good practice the other day. Some believe that practice is not especially conducive to what Guarantano does best, which is to run and evade tacklers, so news that he’s a bit of a gamer shouldn’t surprise. Guarantano does seem a bit indecisive on whether to embrace the label, though:

“I don’t want the label ‘gamer,’ but I want people to know that I am a gamer,” Guarantano said Sunday afternoon during Tennessee’s annual media day. “I think that when those bright lights are on, I’m able to really play some ball.”

Everybody wants the Vols QB to be a winner, of course, but identifying a winner before the game is played is the classic chicken and egg problem, so quarterbacks coach Mike Canales is left with what he believes is the best criteria on which to judge Dormady and Guarantano. Here’s what he’s looking for:

“You’ve got to be physically tough, you’ve got to have mobility, you’ve got to have arm strength, the ability to process information quickly,” Canales said. “I mean those things have to happen because you’ve got to be able to process what defenses are doing. I’m very into seeing how much the kids (we) recruit can process that information. I like to get to know them a little more, so you know if they can or not.

“Everybody wants the Tom Brady, the Peyton Manning, you know, the Aaron Rodgers. Everybody wants that. But they’re all unique in their own special way. They all have special strengths. It’s finding a young man that fits what you’re looking for and has great character.”

Canales did acknowledge that something “clicked” for Guarantano the other day and also insisted that he’s still a candidate to start.

And in case you think that whatever decision is made first is made forever, John Adams pipes up with a little Vols quarterback history to remind us that the guy who starts isn’t always the guy who finishes.

Eli Wolf earns a scholly

You may not have known this, but tight end Ethan Wolf’s younger brother Eli, also a tight end for the team, didn’t have a scholarship until a couple of days ago, when this happened:

That guy he was supposed to go up against in the Circle of Life drill was his brother, and Eli said that once the whistle blew he was only thinking about “puttting him on his butt.” Ethan was also surprised by the announcement, and Dad enjoyed the moment, as well.

Quick Hits

Video roundup


 

First week of NFL preseason offers glimpse of Vols’ future

After being shut out of the previous few NFL Drafts in an historic drought, the Vols broke through in a big way in 2017.  Headlined by first-rounder Derek Barnett to the Eagles, a total of six Volunteers were drafted.  In addition, two other prominent seniors in tight end Jason Croom (Buffalo Bills) and defensive end Latroy Lewis (Oakland Raiders) were signed to UDFA contracts, and since then cornerback Malik Foreman has signed with the New Orleans Saints.

This is a big deal for Butch Jones, as this was his first senior/draft-eligible junior class to be up for the NFL Draft.  The lack of Vols drafted has certainly been used against Butch and Tennessee on the recruiting trail, and frankly there was not much Jones could say or really do about it.  The success he’s had in dramatically upgrading the talent on the Vols roster in the face of this is even more astounding.

As it should have, the UT football program made a very big deal on social media and with recruits about the results of the 2017 NFL Draft.  You’ve already heard 2018 running back recruits talk about being “the next Alvin Kamara” and more than one defensive end prospect talk about how Derek Barnett is his role model.  And of course Josh Dobbs an official Torchbearer  and an ambassador of the program due to both his on and off the field exploits – he should be a role model that Butch holds up when recruiting similarly academic-minded prospects.

But while getting guys drafted is a big deal, the performances of your NFL alumni, especially guys newly in the League, can be leveraged even more.  And if the first week of the NFL Preseason is any indication there is going to be a lot to promote starting this season.

Obviously when your first-round pick dominates in his NFL debut to the tune of two sacks that’s going to generate a ton of headlines, and that’s exactly what Derek Barnett did.  But Kamara showed out as well as the starter for the Saints, and Josh Malone scored a touchdown in his debut with the Bengals. Dobbs made a highly-publicized start for the Steelers, and he settled in after a rough start and showed that he’s got the tools to be an NFL QB.  Jalen Reeves-Maybin led the Lions in tackles in his debut, and LaTroy Lewis looks highly likely to make the Raiders’ active roster after a very good camp and a two-sack opening night of his own.

Coming off back-to-back nine-win and Top 25 seasons and with three bowl wins in a row, Butch and Tennessee have a lot to sell on the recruiting trail in terms of being a blue-chip program back on the rise after a relatively brief drop during the tenure of [REDACTED].  But in the end, what kids want is to make it to the NFL, and before this season no matter how good of a salesman Butch was, he didn’t have that to sell.  As schools like Alabama and Ohio State and Florida State show you, selling on-field success and a platform to the NFL are linked, as of course the programs with the most future NFL talent are the ones consistently competing for national championships.  The good news is that now Butch CAN sell the NFL dream as well as an improved program.  And with some 2017 seniors and several potential NFL early-entrants (who you never want to lose but are the sign of a team stocked with talent) he should have more to sell next summer as well.  We should expect him to sell the heck out of it starting immediately and it should start to yield results beginning with the 2018 class.

2017 seniors with the best chances of being drafted

  • TE Ethan Wolf
  • OL Jashon Robertson
  • OL Brett Kendrick
  • CB Justin Martin
  • CB Shaq Wiggins
  • S Todd Kelly

2017 potential early entrants

  • RB John Kelly
  • WR Jauan Jennings
  • DL Kahlil McKenzie
  • DL Shy Tuttle
  • DL Jonathan Kongbo
  • LB Darren Kirkland Jr