Beneath all the talk, the rivalry, and the unique circumstances surrounding this year’s Tennessee-Florida game, this is the most important fact:  for the fourth year in a row, the Vols have the better team.

The better team doesn’t always win. In 2014 the Vols kept Florida’s offense at bay all day, surrendering only a 30-yard touchdown drive and a 49-yard field goal. But because the Vol offense had a total of seven snaps in the red zone and all seven failed to gain a single yard, the Gators escaped 10-9. In 2015 Tennessee scored to take a 26-14 lead with 10 minutes to play, didn’t go for two, then surrendered conversions on 4th-and-7, 4th-and-8, and 4th-and-14 before poor game management left them with only a 55-yard field goal attempt in one of the five most difficult losses of my lifetime.

Florida got those wins, which is ultimately what matters most. It’s what mattered most for Tennessee last year. But in each of the last three match-ups, the Vols have outperformed the Gators in both total yards and yards per play (with an even turnover margin in each game):

	Plays	Total Yards	Yards Per Play
2014 TEN	68	233	3.43
2014 FLA	75	232	3.09
2015 TEN	70	419	5.99
2015 FLA	71	392	5.52
2016 TEN	79	498	6.30
2016 FLA	70	402	5.74

It hasn’t just been on the field. Tennessee out-recruited Florida from 2014-16, and after a setback in the rankings in February, both the Vols and Gators are currently putting together Top 10 classes for 2018:

(Blue chip ratio represents the percentage of each class made up by four-and-five-stars)

	TEN Rank	TEN Blue Chip	FLA Rank	FLA Blue Chip
2014	7	50.0%	9	37.5%
2015	4	53.3%	21	19.0%
2016	14	43.5%	12	36.0%
2017	17	17.9%	11	47.8%
2018	6	43.5%	7	52.9%

Underneath some perceived friction between Butch Jones and the Tennessee fanbase is the stability Jones has built into the program over the last five years, a stability which may now exceed Florida’s. It’s frustrating to say the Vols really could/should be going for four in a row against the Gators on Saturday and going for their third straight SEC East title this fall. But what’s also true is this may represent the longest stretch of years when Tennessee has had the better team in this rivalry since it became an annual one in 1992. And with a win on Saturday, the Vols will put themselves in an excellent position to extend this run.

The last time Tennessee capitalized on Florida’s instability wasn’t perfect either:  the transition from Steve Spurrier to Ron Zook included an incredibly weird and painful shouldn’t-have-happened loss in 2002, but the Vols still won three of four from 2001-04 en route to a pair of east titles. Butch Jones’ Vols can’t get 2014 and 2015 back, but turned the tide in this rivalry in dramatic fashion in 2016. The close losses may still be painful, but the team’s overall performance the last three years, culminating in last season’s signature win, should give Team 121 real confidence going to Gainesville.

Confidence could be Tennessee’s best weapon in this game. The Gators can ride a wave of “nobody believes in us” on Saturday with backups in key roles, the state still recovering, etc. The best way to deal with emotions like that is in businesslike fashion. And Tennessee’s offense has shown early signs that business could be very good this year.

In Tennessee’s advanced statistical profile at Football Study Hall, the Vol offense ranks 56th nationally in explosiveness. Anytime an offense is more explosive, fans have more fun. But attempting to be explosive can be dangerous for a young quarterback with relatively unproven play-makers, especially against a Florida defense. What takes care of business is efficiency, and there the Vols have excelled.

Football Study Hall and S&P+ utilize success rate to measure efficiency:  does a team gain 50% of the needed yardage on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third and fourth down. By this metric the Vol offense is successful on nearly half of its snaps (49.1%) through two games, 29th nationally. Tennessee has also taken advantage of excellent special teams play, 12th in the nation in average starting field position.

But most impressively, Tennessee’s offense is fifth nationally in finishing drives, measured by points per trip inside the 40 (or, when your team had a 1st-and-10 inside the opponent’s 40 yard line, how often did they score?).

Last week Quinten Dormady threw a terrible interception in the end zone. But every other time the Vols have had 1st-and-10 inside the opponent’s 40 this year, they have scored a touchdown. An average of 6.42 points every time you cross the 40 ranks fifth nationally. That’s impressive no matter who you’ve played.

Larry Scott’s offense is laying down an efficient identity, and that’s exactly what Tennessee needs in Gainesville. The Vols have more talent, more of the right kind of experience through two weeks this fall, and have a chance to be the more stable program coming out of Saturday. With so much uncertainty surrounding this game, I fall back on the simplest answer:  Tennessee has the better team. And this time, they’ve already earned their confidence.

Take care of business.

Go Vols.

 

It’s time for this week’s Locks & Keys, and it’s FLORIDA WEEK!!! Though that may not mean as much to you as it used to, it should. This is still a big game, and though Georgia may be the beast of the East this year, the Vols must win this football game this weekend to have a strong chance at the division.

It also needs to win to turn the vibes of the early season toward a positive manner. Things aren’t perfect on Rocky Top right now, by any stretch, but the record is. That’s all that matters. If it still is after Saturday, it’ll be time to start getting excited.

This is going to be one of those years where UT needs to be up every single week it’s playing in the conference because anybody on the schedule can beat this team. But this team can also beat anybody on its schedule (with the possible exception of Alabama). So, if that ain’t fun, I don’t know what is.

As for the Locks, last week went much better than the first one.

Last week, I went 4-2-1, which is a little better than the week before. That pushes the overall season record to 6-5-1, which isn’t too bad. Hey, we’re up (fake) money, aren’t we? Why are you mad?

UTSA was getting 16.5 points against Baylor. Are you serious? Easy pickins. Easy. The Roadrunners won outright. Houston took care of business in an ugly, sloppy game against Arizona, Oklahoma State covered 28 against South Alabama, and South Carolina easily beat Missouri, who was favored by 2.5 points. Iowa pushed with a 44-41 overtime win over rival Iowa State. Then, I lost the Tulane over (THOSE TEAMS JUST STOPPED SCORING IN THE FOURTH QUARTER!!!!) Then, yeah, Kansas was trounced against Central Michigan. I blew that completely. Sorry about that.

4-2-1. There you have it. Hey, that looks like Tennessee’s defensive scheme against Georgia Tech. At times, it appeared they were playing 7-on-11.

Before we get to the keys, let’s take a look at last week’s.

• Better defensive line rotation: Was it better? Yeah, it was. But it still wasn’t as good as I want it. I really would like to have seen depth guys like Quay Picou, Alexis Johnson, Kivon Bennett and Co. more than I saw. But it wasn’t too bad. We got to see a lot of Kyle Phillips, and he played well. The linemen weren’t huffing and puffing, so that’s an improvement from Week 1. We’ll see how this week goes. SUCCESS!
• Dormady reading through progressions: There were a couple of situations where Dormady locked in on his receiver, including the awful interception in the end zone that cost the Vols points for the first time they traveled inside the opponents’ 40-yard line all season. But Marquez Callaway was far from the only weapon. UT looked to get other guys involved, and nine different players caught passes. SUCCESS!
• Start stronger: How’s a 91-yard kickoff return for a touchdown by Ty Chandler on the opening kick of the game? Yeah, we’ll take that. SUCCESS!
• Build up Bituli and Co: I said I couldn’t imagine a defense without sophomore Daniel Bituli in it, and it appears coordinator Bob Shoop feels the same way. We’ll see how it goes against the Gators, but it sounds like the Vols believe Bituli has to play and start. I really wanted to see more Will Ignont and Quart’e Sapp, but that’s OK. I got my dose of Bituli. SUCCESS!
• Don’t get anybody hurt: The only real important injury was to backup tight end Eli Wolf, who won’t play against the Gators. While that’s a major bummer, it’s normal fallout from a college football game. There weren’t any irreplaceable injuries against the Sycamores. SUCCESS!

So, Tennessee basically did everything it was supposed to do in a 42-7 tuneup win over Indiana State as it geared up for the Gators. We didn’t really learn anything, but we didn’t lose anything, either.

Let’s take a look at Tennessee’s keys to this week’s vital game against the Gators.

KEYS

Take Care of the Ball

Tennessee had two costly turnovers against Indiana State, and though they didn’t really matter, they did cost the Vols 14 points. The first one — a Dormady fumble — led to ISU’s only points of the game. The second one — a Dormady interception — cost the Vols a touchdown, as it was thrown in the end zone.

That cannot happen against the Gators.

This may not be the mighty Gators we’re used to seeing, but it’s still a team with talented players that has gone to the SEC Championship in the each of the past two years. It’s also a team that has had its way with the Vols until last year. Even though Florida isn’t good, the Gators still think they are. That’s dangerous. The Vols cannot give them extra possessions, and UT must continue to do the things it has done offensively, which is put the ball in the end zone once they get to the plus side of the field.

Impose Your Will

Throughout the first two games, it looks like the strength of Tennessee’s team is running John Kelly between the tackles. Senior center Jashon Robertson has been impressive, and so has freshman guard Trey Smith. The other guard spot, which has been shared by Jack Jones and Venzell Boulware, has been strong, too.

The Vols need to continue that success running the ball up the middle. It may not be sexy, but Kelly is a beast, and he looks great the more you feed him. And, hey, give him a breather or two, too. Ty Chandler, Carlin Fils-aime and Tim Jordan are all capable backups.

There’s no reason for Tennessee to be cute. Put this game on the shoulders of your best player and the line in front of him. Florida’s strength is its defensive line, so this is going to be strength vs. strength. The Vols must win this at the point of attack.

Cover Those Edges

Even when the Sycamores were 0-for-11 on third downs last week, there were still fundamental flaws on UT’s defense. The Vols haven’t proven yet that they can cover the edges of the field, and the Yellow Jackets and Sycamores both had too many situations where they turned the corner and got upfield.

That’s not the strength of Colton Jumper’s game, which is why Bituli needs to be on the field. The Vols also need more help from defensive end Jonathan Kongbo, who hasn’t looked like himself in the first two games. That may be why we see Kyle Phillips more against Florida. The Vols also need players like Nigel Warrior, Todd Kelly Jr. and Rashaan Gaulden to step up in the run game.

This is a game where the matchups seem to favor the Vols. They need to get hyped up early. We haven’t seen this defense against a conventional offense yet, and we will this weekend. It’s time for them to flip the narrative.

Get a Game-Changer

It’s a major sting that the nation’s top kick returner — Evan Berry — is questionable. If he can play, the Vols need to put him in there. But even if he can’t, Chandler is a game-changer returning kicks, and Callaway is a strong punt returner, too.

The Vols could use a special teams touchdown, a pick-six or a deep catch or long run. The Gators aren’t a team anybody expects to light up the scoreboard. If the Vols can get a game-changing, momentum-swinging play or two, they may just pour it on the way they did during the second half last year. If this is a close game, it may favor the Gators in the Swamp.

Be the Aggressor

It took a player with as much swagger as any Vol has had in the past decade to take over and lead Tennessee to a win last year when Jauan Jennings stepped up. It also didn’t hurt to have a dual-threat star at quarterback in Joshua Dobbs who played on another level.

Neither of those guys will trot onto the field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium this weekend.

But Tennessee needs to play like the team that won last year. The psychological advantage needs to be over. The Gators are confident again, of course, but UT needs to do its talking on the field. The Vols need to play with more of an edge, and if they do, they may just have a little win streak against UF and send the Gators to their first 0-2 record since 1971.

LOCKS

Alright, we’re 6-5-1. I’m going to give you six picks that I really, really like this week, so let’s try to go undefeated, shall we?

1. UCLA -3.5 over Memphis: This is an odd game with the Bruins traveling across country to play a quality Tigers team in the Liberty Bowl. But you’ve got to love Josh Rosen right now, and though Memphis didn’t get the chance to play last week’s major showdown against UCF, the Tigers proved to be vulnerable against the pass against Louisiana-Monroe in Week 1. I like a lot of points to be scored, but the Bruins cover.
2. Tulsa +10.5 over Toledo: I cannot believe I’m getting double-digit points in this one. Yes, I know it’s at the Glass Bowl, where the Rockets are tough. But the Golden Hurricane are my jam, man. They’re a money-making machine. They are 4-0 against the spread in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record. They cover easily, and it may be worth betting the money line.
3. Clemson -3.5 over Louisville: I was dead wrong about Kelly Bryant, and the Tigers look like they are a legit contender yet again this year. They’ll make it two big-time wins in a row after dispatching the Cardinals handily this week. Nobody else has Lamar Jackson, who is a freak of nature. But Clemson has a dynamite front seven, and they’ll at least slow him down enough to win by a touchdown or more.
4. North Carolina -7.5 over Old Dominion: It’s hard to believe the Tar Heels are 0-2, and, no, they aren’t a very good team. But they’ll beat the Monarchs handily. They beat a horrible UMass team just 17-7 a week ago, and though UNC has had its struggles, it can still put up points. I’m not sure ODU can.
5. Purdue/Missouri under 78.5: A WHOLE LOT of points are going to be scored in this one, but SEVENTY NINE? I’m just not sure about that. That’s a whole lot of real estate on the under, and as a bonus pick, I love the Boilermakers, too. They would have been my seventh pick. The only reason why I didn’t include them is it’s on the road. But go ahead and do it. For me.
6. Tennessee +5.5 over Florida: Because I feel obligated to, I chose this game over Purdue. I really do think the Vols are a better team, and I can’t justify any reason why the Gators should be 5.5 point favorites, no matter where the game is. What have they proven? That should be a slap in the face to the Vols, and they should play that way. I like UT to win this one outright, 30-24.

 

We’ve spent a good couple of weeks now evaluating Team 121, and most of our angst has been in the form of fretting over the various warts of the Vols’ defense. We probably won’t know for a few weeks still whether the run defense actually hasn’t improved from last season or whether the early season performance can indeed be chalked up entirely to the triple option. But somehow, numbers that would normally be alarming headed into a rivalry game with Florida don’t seem so frightening this time around.

Because Florida’s got their own problems.

Florida Gators Offense

 

Observations. When I first loaded this up, I was looking at the most current stats, and they showed Florida’s offense as the absolute worst FBS team in the nation in four categories and in the bottom four in three more. I knew they’d been bad that first week, but had they actually been the absolute worst? Please tell me that it’s so.

It was only then that it dawned on me that the rankings compare teams with one game (Florida, for instance, who had to cancel their game last week) to teams with two, and that those numbers aren’t necessarily indicative of how the team really compares to others.

So, I re-did everything from scratch looking just at the first full week’s stats.

Guess what? Florida’s offense is actually terrible. Maybe not the worst, but still rotten poultry rancid bad.

Bottom three in rushing offense. Bottom eight on first down and third down, as well as in sacks allowed and total offense. Not much better in the red zone or at allowing tackles for loss. Still in double digits in scoring and passing efficiency. Barely out of the gutter in completion percentage and passing yards.

They haven’t yet thrown an interception, so if you’re giving participation trophies, that’s what you tell the engraver.

Yes, all of this could change against Tennessee, especially with the Vols’ defense looking similarly inept in its first game. But, goodness, Florida’s offense looked woeful against Michigan.

Florida Gators Defense

 

Observations. Much of this was actually surprising to me. Florida has accomplished what it has the past couple of seasons on the strength of its defense, and everyone knows that it was the defense that scored 14 of the team’s 17 points in the season opener. So, I expected to see some good numbers here.

There are, indeed, some good numbers. There’s the #1-ranking in defensive touchdowns you expected, and there’s the interceptions to go with it. There’s also the behind-the-line havoc stats in sacks and TFLs, which will provide a major challenge to Tennessee’s offensive line Saturday.

But after that, the Gators defense don’t look up to its usual standards, at least based on its first game stats. Rushing defense, in particular, looks suspect, which should keep Tennessee running back John Kelly’s smile on full power this week.

Basically, it looks like somebody’s scoring when the Gators are on defense. It might be you, but it might be them. Exciting!

Florida Gators Special Teams

 

Observations. Special teams stats are especially wonky early in the season, so don’t make too much of any of this. The main takeaway here, I think, is that they had four touchbacks on four kickoffs, so one of the Vols’ advantages (the kickoff return team) is probably already gone.

Florida Gators Turnovers and Penalties

 

Observations. With two pick sixes, you’d expect to see better numbers in overall turnovers, but no. They’re also not especially disciplined, as measured by penalties. But again, it’s one game’s worth of stats.

Florida Gators Players to Watch – Offense

 

Observations. As you’d expect, there’s nothing too frightening here, except the appearance of two defensive players on the list of offensive players to watch. It appears that Malik Zaire was maybe a tad bit more efficient than Feleipe Franks, but I wouldn’t conclude that that means he’ll play more than Franks on Saturday.

Note the glaring absence of any running back on that list at all. If there are any go-to guys in the passing game, they appear to be sophomore wide receivers Josh Hammond and Tyrie Cleveland. Combined, they had seven receptions for 127 yards against Michigan.

Florida Gators Players to Watch – Defense

 

Observations. The defensive guys are the ones to watch out for as potential game-changers Saturday. Defensive backs Duke Dawson and CJ Henderson are the guys who had pick sixes against the Wolverines, and defensive lineman Jordan Sherit had two sacks. DB Nick Washington led the team in tackles with nine. If you want to conclude something about the linebackers based on that stat, feel free.

Florida Gators Players to Watch – Special Teams

 

Observations. Kicker Eddy Pineiro hit only one of two field goal attempts in the first game.

Conclusion and prediction

As we discussed on our podcast last night, the key to this game is going to be which of Florida’s offense and Tennessee’s defense finds itself first and best. Apart from that, the Vols should lean on John Kelly running angry and hope the offensive line can hold its own against Florida’s defensive line. Be careful in the passing game, as Florida’s DBs are ball hawks, but don’t be too careful, as there are opportunities in the passing game as well.

The lines and the computer models all have Florida in this one, and I usually trust those things. But I just don’t understand either of them on this one, and I’m going with the Vols not just to cover but to win outright, 24-17.

In addition to the Vols-Gators game as the SEC Game of the Week on CBS at 3:30, there’s a lot of opportunity for Vols fans to scout out Tennessee’s future opponents this week. Thursday matters not at all to Vols fans, but you can ease into your weekend with an early scout of Tennessee’s next opponent on Friday night.

Saturday at noon, you have an opportunity to either increase or decrease your anxiety about the Gators by watching Michigan take on Air Force, and then it’s go time for Tennessee-Florida at 3:30. Regardless of your mood after the game, the evening provides an opportunity to bounce around among several future opponents of the Vols, plus a big national game between #3 Clemson and #14 Louisville.

Here’s the Week 3 college football TV schedule, curated for Vols fans. The full schedule as at the bottom of the post.

Thursday, September 14

 

Thursday night’s a good opportunity to put some honey-do credit in the bank if you need it, as no Vols fan really cares much one way or the other about New Mexico or Boise State. But if you’re not doing anything else, why not?

Friday, September 15

 

Friday is a good opportunity to get a first look at UMass, who, if you haven’t realized it, comes to Neyland next week. It will help you look good next week at the office when you can name drop a couple of Minuteman players.

Gameday, September 16

And then it’s Gameday.

 

So, the main event on Saturday is the Vols-Gators game, of course. But beyond that, let me ask you a few questions you can answer in the comments:

• How do you want Michigan to look against Air Force?
• How do you want future SEC East opponents Georgia, Missouri, and Vanderbilt to look against non-conference competition?
• Same question, but for SEC West opponents Alabama and LSU.
• Between South Carolina and Kentucky, we’re rooting for Kentucky to pull off the upset, right?

Complete college football TV schedule for Week 3

And here’s the complete schedule for the week, paginated and searchable!

When the Vols take on the Gators this Saturday afternoon at 3:30 in Gainesville, it will be the first time since 2005 that the Gators are looking for revenge. Not that it matters, really. Being motivated by the prior season’s disappointment didn’t help Tennessee much for over a decade. What helps is actually being able to do something about it.

It’s well-documented that Florida’s offense has been staggering around like a blind drunk with an Uzi for at least a couple of seasons now, and this year’s opener against Michigan did nothing to sober it up. They managed only three points (14 of their 17 points came on two pick-sixes), and they played two quarterbacks, neither of whom looked very good at all.

On the other hand, most aren’t especially confident in Tennessee’s defense, either. After a terrible season last fall, they gave up 535 rushing yards to Georgia Tech and then played a middle-of-the-road FCS team that provided no sure answers to the all-important question of whether the opener was a fluke or the beginning of a repeat of last season. Questions (and not entirely comforting answers) about where Bob Shoop has his defensive linemen lining up are not helping to quell the anxiety.

But don’t fret just yet. VFL Daniel Hood says that it’s just too early to draw any hard and fast conclusions either way about the defense at this point:

“I just do not think there is anything you can really tell about them now,” Hood told Saturday Down South of the defense through two games. “We do not know if they are good, and we do not know if they are bad.”

The linked article does provide some glimmer of hope by noting that Alabama gave up 302 rushing yards to Georgia Southern’s triple option back in 2011. That’s reaching pretty deep in the diaper bag for a pacifier, but sometimes you just need your binky.

Whatever the case, it is almost certainly a good thing that the Vols expect to be able to return to a “regular defense” against the Gators this weekend. Plus, there are some very positive bits of data emerging for the Tennessee defense, including the fact that defensive end Kyle Phillips looks like he’s beginning to live up to high expectations and the fact that the defensive backs are both showing off a new (for them) technique in defending the deep pass and expecting graduate transfer Shaq Wiggins to finally be healthy enough to contribute this weekend.

And while the Gators offense versus the Tennessee defense may be a contest of who can find themselves first, the Vols’ offense will face a stout challenge going up against an always-good Gators defense.

Whatever happens, expect a typical Vols-Gators showdown, even as players on both teams find some solidarity in the common opponent of Hurricane Irma. After some uncertainty, the game is in fact going to be played as and where scheduled, and Tennessee’s campus police will be on hand to assist with gameday efforts in and around the stadium. Good for both of them. Priorities matter.

But pulling in the same direction will end there and at kickoff, and will probably include some good old-fashioned football malice. Tennessee wants to “start fast and hit them in the mouth,” and the Gators almost certainly have similar plans.

As offensive coordinator Larry Scott told media the other day, Tennessee-Florida is a “why” game:

“All I can say is, really in a nutshell, these are the reasons, these are the games that you come to Tennessee for,” offensive coordinator Larry Scott said. “It’s why you want to be a Tennessee Volunteer. The conference season has begun, and it just so happens that the opener is in Gainesville against the Florida Gators. That’s why you do it. That’s why you come here, that’s why you coach here, that’s why you play here, that’s why you’re here.”

Vols. Gators. It’s your why, and it’s this Saturday at 3:30.

We’ve been tracking the Vols’ statistical trends since 2011, first over at the old place and now here. Here’s our weekly update, after the Indiana State game.

Offensive observations: The offensive line seems to be doing its job so far, at least in not letting defensive lines disrupt plays behind the line of scrimmage. A Scoring Offense rank of #27 is a happy sign as well, although that likely has a lot to do with the two defenses played so far.

After that, we get into the mediocre for a while, and then the passing offense looks like it could use the most improvement. The run game could improve as well, though, which is kind of surprising.

The oddest thing is the contrast between a good job of putting points on the board despite not being particularly effective. Being good in the red zone and on third down helps.

Defensive observations: Don’t get too excited about that apparent improvement in Passing Yards Allowed, which is probably the byproduct of playing two run-first offenses.

The flip side of that coin is that you shouldn’t be too alarmed at the lack of sacks or interceptions at this point, either. Still, lots of work to be done here for the defense to wash away what happened against Georgia Tech.

Special Teams observations: First, those blocked kicks and punts stats are mostly useless and will be most of or all season long. But after that, hoo-wee, Tennessee’s special teams unit is really good and has been for several years now. Punter Trevor Daniel is an absolute weapon, and so is either or both of Evan Berry and the kickoff return team. Punt return defense could use some work.

Turnovers and Penalties observations: So far this season, Team 121 has been a disciplined team. Two turnovers against the Sycamores somewhat erased gains made in turnover margin against Georgia Tech, but so far, there’s not too much to complain about here.

As the data on 2017 continues to trickle in, let’s take a look at what to reasonably expect out of the Vols the rest of the way.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week. And just like last week, there’s a chance at the bottom of the post for you to contribute to the community survey on the same question.

The Vols after Indiana State

After a week of not knowing exactly what to make of a defense playing against Georgia Tech’s triple option, we’re now faced with not knowing exactly what to make of a team playing a middle-of-the-road FCS team.

What we do know is that the team got a lot of different players valuable reps on the field. They used two quarterbacks and five running backs, and nine different players caught a pass. Plus, the NCAA’s official stats say that 17 players have started both games, and, by my count, 71 guys have played in at least one game already this season.

So, that’s all good, but if we can’t really draw any conclusions about a poor defense against Georgia Tech, we also shouldn’t be too hasty about drawing any conclusions about that same defense against an FCS foe. So, woo for 100% on third down stops and all that, but it’s a muted woo.

We really can’t say much about the offense, either. Basically, we’re right around where we expected to be and don’t really know much more about the team than we did in the preseason, other than the identity of some of the guys on whom they’ll rely.

All of that is to say this: I’m not adjusting expectations about the Vols themselves at all after the first two weeks. I am making some adjustments based on Vols’ opponents, though.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia Tech (1-1, 0-0 ACC, NR)

• W1: Lost to Tennessee 42-41 in double overtime.
• W2: Beat Jacksonville State, 37-10.
• W3: At UCF
• W4: Pitt
• W5: North Carolina
• W6: Bye
• W7: At #17 Miami
• W8: Wake Forest
• W9: At #3 Clemson
• W10: At Virginia
• W11: #16 Virginia Tech
• W12: At Duke
• W13: #13 Georgia

Oh, my goodness, Jacksonville State held Georgia Tech to 210 yards, less than half of what we did! Our defense must therefore be twice as bad as the . . . hold, please, while I look up the Jacksonville State mascot . . . Gamecocks!

Whatever. The Yellow Jackets had this game in hand long before it was over. Draw whatever conclusions you want, but I’m going to wait and see.

9/9/17: Indiana State (0-1, 0-0 MVFC, NR)

• W1: Lost to E Illinois, 22-20.
• W2: Lost to Tennessee, 42-7.
• W3: At Liberty
• W4: Bye
• W5: At Illinois State
• W6: North Dakota State
• W7: At South Dakota
• W8: S Illinois
• W9: At Missouri State
• W10: Youngstown State
• W11: W Illinois
• W12: At Northern Iowa

We got about what we expected from these guys.

The Vols’ future opponents

9/16/17: Florida (0-1, 0-0 SEC, #24)

• W1: Lost to #11 Michigan, 33-17.
• W2: Canceled game with N Colorado.
• W3: #25 Tennessee
• W4: At Kentucky
• W5: Vanderbilt
• W6: #12 LSU
• W7: Texas A&M
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs #15 Georgia
• W10: At Missouri
• W11: At South Carolina
• W12: UAB
• W13: #10 Florida State

Expectations for a Vols win: No game, no change.

9/23/17: UMass (0-3, 0-0 IND, NR)

• W1: Lost to Hawaii, 38-35.
• W2: Lost to C. Carolina, 38-28.
• W3: Lost to Old Dominion, 17-7.
• W4: At Temple
• W5: At #25 Tennessee
• W6: Ohio
• W7: Bye
• W8: At #21 USF
• W9: Ga Southern
• W10: Appalachian State
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Maine
• W13: At BYU

Expectations for a Vols win: Goodness, UMass is having a tough time. They had 79 yards rushing, and, according to the lede from ESPN, got beat on a 7-yard quarterback sneak. That’s what it says. Keeping them at 96%.

9/30/17: Georgia (2-0, 0-0 SEC, #13)

• W1: Beat Appalachian State, 31-10. QB Jacob Eason went down, but freshman Jake Fromm looked good and took care of business.
• W2: Beat #24 Notre Dame, 20-19.
• W3: Samford
• W4: Mississippi State
• W5: At #25 Tennessee
• W6: At Vanderbilt
• W7: Missouri
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs. #22 Florida
• W10: South Carolina
• W11: At #13 Auburn
• W12: Kentucky
• W13: At Georgia Tech

Expectations for a Vols win: The Bulldogs got it done against the Fighting Irish, as Jake Fromm went 16-of-29 for 141 yards with one touchdown and one interception. They also ran for 185 yards, but only got 4.3 yards per carry. They won the game late when Davin Bellamy sacked the Notre Dame QB and made him fumble. Bottom line, Georgia looks good, but they don’t look invincible. I am going to move them from 45% to 40%, though.

10/14/17: South Carolina (2-0, 1-0 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat NC State, 35-28.
• W2: Beat Missouri, 31-13.
• W3: Kentucky
• W4: LA Tech
• W5: At Texas A&M
• W6: Arkansas
• W7: At #25 Tennessee
• W8: Bye
• W9: Vanderbilt
• W10: At #15 Georgia
• W11: #22 Florida
• W12: Wofford
• W13: #3 Clemson

Expectations for a Vols win: Missouri led South Carolina 10-0 in the second quarter before making the mistake of allowing the Gamecocks’ Deebo Samuel to field a kickoff, which he promptly took directly to the scoreboard for the second week in a row. Samuel then scored again 15 seconds later on a jet sweep after an interception by Jamyest Williams. The question: Was Missouri’s 13 points, after the Tigers put up 72 last week, an indication that they’re not all that or an indication that South Carolina is? We won’t know for sure for a few more weeks, but right now, the Gamecocks do look like a serious contender. I’m moving them from 69% to 60%.

10/21/17: Alabama (2-0, 0-0 SEC, #1)

• W1: Beat #3 Florida State, 24-7.
• W2: Beat Fresno State, 41-10.
• W3: Colorado State
• W4: At Vanderbilt
• W5: Ole Miss
• W6: At Texas A&M
• W7: Arkansas
• W8: #25 Tennessee
• W9: Bye
• W10: #12 LSU
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Mercer
• W13: At #13 Auburn

Expectations for a Vols win: No surprises here. Keeping the Tide at 10%.

10/28/17: Kentucky (2-0, 0-0 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Southern Miss, 24-17.
• W2: Best E Kentucky, 27-16.
• W3: At South Carolina
• W4: #22 Florida
• W5: E Michigan
• W6: Missouri
• W7: Bye
• W8: At Mississippi State
• W9: #25 Tennessee
• W10: Ole Miss
• W11: At Vanderbilt
• W12: At #15 Georgia
• W13: #17 Lousiville

Expectations for a Vols win: Hmm. Apparently, Kentucky was behind most of this game and needed two turnovers at crucial moments to pull it out. They’re probably going to be fine, but for now, I’m moving them from 65% to 70%.

11/4/17: Southern Miss (1-1, 0-0 C-USA, NR)

• W1: Lost to Kentucky, 24-17.
• W2: Beat Southern, 45-0.
• W3: At UL Monroe
• W4: Bye
• W5: North Texas
• W6: UTSA
• W7: UTEP
• W8: At LA Tech
• W9: UAB
• W10: At #25 Tennessee
• W11: At Rice
• W12: Charlotte
• W13: At Marshall

Expectations for a Vols win: That 45-0 win over Southern this week might be more impressive than it seems, as Southern Miss had 28 of those 45 points in the first quarter. It probably shouldn’t matter much, but I am going to move them from 85% to 80% based on that game.

11/11/17: Missouri (1-1, 0-1 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Missouri State 72-43.
• W2: Lost to South Carolina, 31-13.
• W3: Purdue
• W4: #13 Auburn
• W5: Bye
• W6: At Kentucky
• W7: At #15 Georgia
• W8: Idaho
• W9: At UConn
• W10: #22 Florida
• W11: #25 Tennessee
• W12: At Vanderbilt
• W13: At Arkansas

Expectations for a Vols win: See the discussion of South Carolina above. Never mind, I guess, about that 72-43 win over Missouri State last week, but I would keep an eye on these guys. For now, I’m moving the Tigers back to 70%, where I had them preseason.

11/18/17: LSU (2-0, 0-0 SEC, #12)

• W1: Beat BYU, 27-0.
• W2: Beat Chattanooga, 45-10.
• W3: At Mississippi State
• W4: Syracuse
• W5: Troy
• W6: At #22 Florida
• W7: #13 Auburn
• W8: At Ole Miss
• W9: Bye
• W10: At #1 Alabama
• W11: Arkansas
• W12: At #25 Tennessee
• W13: Texas A&M

Expectations for a Vols win: Watching that recap video makes LSU look impressive, but they were playing Chattanooga. So, I’m leaving these Tigers right at 25% for now.

11/25/17: Vanderbilt (2-0, 0-0 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat MTSU, 28-6.
• W2: Beat Alabama A&M, 42-0.
• W3: #19 Kansas State
• W4: #1 Alabama
• W5: At #22 Florida
• W6: #15 Georgia
• W7: At Ole Miss
• W8: Bye
• W9: At South Carolina
• W10: W Kentucky
• W11: Kentucky
• W12: Missouri
• W13: At #25 Tennessee

Expectations for a Vols win: I couldn’t tell you one thing about Alabama A&M, but 42-0 is pretty good, so I’m moving Vandy to 65%.

All of that puts me at 7.71 wins, but with 9 if I’m right on every game.

YOUR TURN

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The answers will really come next week. But after a week of triple option and a week of FCS, we can put a few questions aside on the road to Gainesville.

Quinten Dormady is Tennessee’s quarterback right now. Speculation that Jarrett Guarantano has a higher ceiling is based in recruiting rankings and…I’m not sure what else at this point. Dormady is 33-of-55 for 415 yards (7.5 yards per attempt) with four touchdowns and one poor decision on an interception today. Since halftime against Georgia Tech, Dormady is 25-of-35 (71.4%) for 363 yards (10.4 ypa).

Guarantano could’ve had more help from his receivers today, but was still 4-of-12 for 41 yards against an FCS opponent. There is a reason they didn’t play him on Monday, and I would not expect to see him in Gainesville. That’s no guarantee Dormady will be lights out against a tougher Gator defense, but he is the clear choice of this coaching staff at the moment. And what we’ve seen on the field backs that up.

Tennessee’s number two running back is up for grabs. Before today Carlin Fils-aime was best known for being part of an unfortunate fumble at South Carolina last year. I was worried, if Ty Chandler had clearly passed him by, that might be the strongest memory he got to make at Tennessee. But CFA took care of that himself today with 41 yards and two touchdowns on three carries.

In Butch Jones’ tenure the Vols have always had a clear one-two at running back (Neal/Lane, Hurd/Lane, Hurd/Kamara). John Kelly is clearly the alpha, but the beta is still up for grabs it would seem.

Dormady loves Brandon Johnson. With seven catches in two games, Johnson has been Tennessee’s most targeted wide receiver. John Kelly has more catches overall as the Vols continue to love to throw to the running back in this offense. And Marquez Callaway is clearly the big play threat. But Johnson might be emerging as the number two option at receiver in what is still a crowded field. Josh Palmer had some big chances today that Dormady overthrew, and Josh Smith was going to start originally but is yet to play. I think the Vols are better off if they get more consistency at the top, but there are some decent options here.

Efficiency competes for championships. The Vols had only one three-and-out today and put an 0-for-11 on Indiana State’s offense on third down. This offense isn’t putting up the numbers we saw in November last year, but that’s an unfair comparison considering the Vols led the nation in yards per play during that stretch last fall. What they have done is get off to a better start in the first two games than what we saw from Team 120 against Appalachian State, Virginia Tech, and Ohio. They avoid negative plays and, since halftime against Georgia Tech, give themselves good opportunities on third down. The defense can’t erase Yellow Jacket memories by beating Indiana State, but they did hold the Sycamores to 3.77 yards per play.

Tennessee now must maintain focus in what will be an emotional week. Where will this Florida game be played? Florida State and Miami have moved their showdown, but the Vols and Gators do not have a common bye week. If Gainesville isn’t an option, could the game be played in Atlanta? Would both teams consider moving it to Knoxville, then playing in Gainesville in both 2018 and 2019?

There will be plenty of rumors, and Florida’s decision makers didn’t endear themselves to the rest of the league over the LSU game last year. But the biggest concern this week is everyone’s safety and the livelihood of those in the Sunshine State; how much that is affected won’t begin to be known until a few days from now. Thoughts and prayers to those in the path of this storm; we’ll figure out football later. And no matter what the outcome, Tennessee is capable of taking care of its own business.