With three games to go, the Vols are hoping to win out but may be looking at a rough finish instead.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

The Vols after Southern Miss

The Vols got a much-needed win against the Golden Eagles, but a win over a 5-4 Conference USA team doesn’t provide much boost in expectations the rest of the way. The defense is finding itself, and the offense got over its allergy to the end zone this week, but they are THIN on that side of the ball. For now, any change in expectations for the last three games will have to come, if at all, from the opponents.

The Vols’ future opponents

11/11/17: Missouri (4-5, 1-4 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Missouri State 72-43.
• W2: Lost to South Carolina, 31-13.
• W3: Lost to Purdue, 35-3.
• W4: Lost to #15 Auburn, 51-14.
• W5: Bye
• W6: Lost to Kentucky, 40-34.
• W7: Lost to #4 Georgia, 53-28.
• W8: Beat Idaho, 68-21.
• W9: Beat UConn, 52-12.
• W10: Beat Florida, 45-16.
• W11: Tennessee
• W12: At Vanderbilt
• W13: At Arkansas

Expectations for a Vols win: Missouri, which had lost five of its first six games, has now won its last three, including a jack-hammering of the Florida Gators. We’ll obviously take a closer look at these guys all this upcoming week, but they look like they could be a real problem for the Vols this weekend. I’d had the game at 50/50 for the past several weeks, but I’m putting it at 40% now.

PREDICTIONS – MISSOURI
W1	W2	W3	W4	W5	W6	W7	W8	W9	W10	W11	W12	W13
70	65	70	70	70	50	50	50	50	50	40

11/18/17: LSU (6-3, 3-2 SEC, #19)

• W1: Beat BYU, 27-0.
• W2: Beat Chattanooga, 45-10.
• W3: Lost to Mississippi State, 37-7.
• W4: Beat Syracuse, 35-26.
• W5: Lost at home, during Homecoming, to Troy, 24-21.
• W6: Beat #21 Florida, 17-16.
• W7: Beat #10 Auburn, 27-23.
• W8: Beat Ole Miss, 40-24.
• W9: Bye
• W10: Lost to #2 Alabama, 24-10.
• W11: Arkansas
• W12: At #25 Tennessee
• W13: Texas A&M

Expectations for a Vols win: LSU actually outgained Alabama 306-299, but just couldn’t get points on the board. This one’s tough, but we knew it was going to be tough, so I’m keeping it at 25%.

PREDICTIONS – LSU
W1	W2	W3	W4	W5	W6	W7	W8	W9	W10	W11	W12	W13
25	25	25	45	45	50	50	30	25	25	25

11/25/17: Vanderbilt (4-5, 0-5 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat MTSU, 28-6.
• W2: Beat Alabama A&M, 42-0.
• W3: Beat #19 Kansas State, 14-7.
• W4: Lost to #1 Alabama, 59-0.
• W5: Lost to #21 Florida, 38-24.
• W6: Lost to #5 Georgia, 45-14.
• W7: Lost to Ole Miss, 57-35.
• W8: Bye
• W9: Lost to South Carolina, 34-27.
• W10: Beat Western Kentucky, 31-17.
• W11: Kentucky
• W12: Missouri
• W13: At #25 Tennessee

Expectations for a Vols win: Vanderbilt milked that Kansas State win for everything it was worth, but then went on a five-game losing streak against a gauntlet of a schedule. The win against WKU this weekend confirms that they’re still a threat to a struggling Tennessee team. Keeping this a 50/50 game.

PREDICTIONS – VANDERBILT
W1	W2	W3	W4	W5	W6	W7	W8	W9	W10	W11	W12	W13
72	72	65	55	55	50	50	50	50	50	50

All of that puts me at 5.15 wins. Use this form to get your own calculation:

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia Tech (4-4, 3-3 ACC, RV)

• W1: Lost to Tennessee 42-41 in double overtime.
• W2: Beat Jacksonville State, 37-10.
• W3: At UCF (canceled)
• W4: Beat Pitt, 35-17.
• W5: Beat North Carolina, 33-7.
• W6: Bye
• W7: Lost to #11 Miami, 25-24.
• W8: Beat Wake Forest, 38-24.
• W9: Lost to #7 Clemson, 24-10.
• W10: Lost to Virginia, 40-36.
• W11: Virginia Tech
• W12: At Duke
• W13: Georgia

No shame in losing to Clemson, but the loss this week to Virginia has to hurt.

Indiana State (0-9, 0-6 MVFC, NR)

• W1: Lost to E Illinois, 22-20.
• W2: Lost to Tennessee, 42-7.
• W3: Lost to Liberty, 42-41 on a blocked 23-yard field goal attempt as time expired.
• W4: Bye
• W5: Lost to Illinois State, 24-13.
• W6: Lost to North Dakota State, 52-0.
• W7: Lost to South Dakota, 56-6.
• W8: Lost to S Illinois, 45-24.
• W9: Lost to Missouri State, 59-20.
• W10: Lost to Youngstown State, 66-24.
• W11: W Illinois
• W12: At Northern Iowa

Florida (3-5, 3-4 SEC, NR)

• W1: Lost to #11 Michigan, 33-17.
• W2: Canceled game with N Colorado.
• W3: Beat #25 Tennessee, 26-20.
• W4: Beat Kentucky, 28-27.
• W5: Beat Vanderbilt, 38-24.
• W6: Lost to LSU, 17-16 on a missed extra point due to a bad snap and hold.
• W7: Lost to Texas A&M, 19-17.
• W8: Bye
• W9: Lost to #3 Georgia, 42-7. Fired their coach.
• W10: Lost at Missouri, 45-16.
• W11: At South Carolina
• W12: UAB
• W13: Florida State

Four-game losing streak for the Gators.

UMass (2-7, 0-0 IND, NR)

• W1: Lost to Hawaii, 38-35.
• W2: Lost to C. Carolina, 38-28.
• W3: Lost to Old Dominion, 17-7.
• W4: Lost to Temple, 29-21.
• W5: Lost to Tennessee, 17-13.
• W6: Lost to Ohio, 58-50.
• W7: Bye
• W8: At USF (canceled)
• W9: Beat Ga Southern, 55-20.
• W10: Beat Appalachian State in double overtime, 30-27.
• W11: Lost to #16 Mississippi State, 34-23.
• W12: Maine
• W13: At BYU

Georgia (9-0, 6-0 SEC, #1)

• W1: Beat Appalachian State, 31-10. QB Jacob Eason went down, but freshman Jake Fromm looked good and took care of business.
• W2: Beat #24 Notre Dame, 20-19.
• W3: Beat Samford, 42-14.
• W4: Easily handled #17 Mississippi State, 31-3.
• W5: Demoralized Tennessee, 41-0.
• W6: Beat Vanderbilt, 45-14.
• W7: Beat Missouri, 53-28.
• W8: Bye
• W9: Beat Florida, 42-7.
• W10: Beat South Carolina, 24-10.
• W11: At #13 Auburn
• W12: Kentucky
• W13: At Georgia Tech

I think these guys have the best chance of anyone toppling Alabama in a long time.

South Carolina (6-3, 4-3 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat NC State, 35-28.
• W2: Beat Missouri, 31-13.
• W3: Lost to Kentucky, 23-13.
• W4: Beat LA Tech, 17-16.
• W5: Lost to Texas A&M, 24-17.
• W6: Beat Arkansas, 48-22.
• W7: Beat Tennessee, 15-9.
• W8: Bye
• W9: Beat Vanderbilt, 34-27.
• W10: Lost to #1 Georgia, 24-10.
• W11: Florida
• W12: Wofford
• W13: Clemson

Alabama (9-0, 6-0 SEC, #2)

• W1: Beat #3 Florida State, 24-7.
• W2: Beat Fresno State, 41-10.
• W3: Beat Colorado State, 41-23.
• W4: Beat Vanderbilt, 59-0.
• W5: Beat Ole Miss, 66-3.
• W6: Beat Texas A&M, 27-19.
• W7: Beat Arkansas, 41-9.
• W8: Beat Tennessee, 45-7.
• W9: Bye
• W10: Beat #19 LSU, 24-10.
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Mercer
• W13: At #13 Auburn

Kentucky (6-3, 3-3 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Southern Miss, 24-17.
• W2: Best E Kentucky, 27-16.
• W3: Beat South Carolina, 23-13.
• W4: Lost to #20 Florida, 28-27.
• W5: Beat E Michigan, 24-20.
• W6: Beat Missouri, 40-34.
• W7: Bye
• W8: Lost to Mississippi State, 45-7.
• W9: Best Tennessee, 29-26.
• W10: Lost to Ole Miss, 37-34.
• W11: At Vanderbilt
• W12: At #15 Georgia
• W13: #17 Lousiville

Southern Miss (5-4, 3-2 C-USA, NR)

• W1: Lost to Kentucky, 24-17.
• W2: Beat Southern, 45-0.
• W3: Beat UL Monroe, 28-17.
• W4: Bye
• W5: Lost to North Texas, 43-28.
• W6: Beat UTSA, 31-29.
• W7: Beat UTEP, 24-0.
• W8: Beat LA Tech, 34-27 in double overtime.
• W9: Lost to UAB, 30-12.
• W10: Lost to Tennessee, 24-10.
• W11: At Rice
• W12: Charlotte
• W13: At Marshall

The Tennessee Volunteers take on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles tonight at Neyland Stadium. The game kicks off at 7:30 and will be televised on the SEC Network. Brace for a closer-than-expected game, as the humans and machines disagree on the winner. Here’s to staving off the dominion of the machines for another day.

Go Vols.

• Kickoff: Nov. 4, 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: SEC Network
• Watch online
• Listen online
• Live stats

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine, on a bit of a roll the past couple of weeks, now takes a look at Tennessee’s game against Southern Miss this Saturday night in Knoxville. Word of warning: You’re not going to like what it’s spitting out.

The SPM itself is giving the game to Southern Miss, with a score of 18.5-14.8, so . . . 19-15. If you think that discredits the thing entirely, I’ll point out that S&P+ likes the Golden Eagles by an even greater margin.

I’m pretty fond of my humble little SPM, but I’m still not buying that, so I’ve adjusted my own predictions to Tennessee, 23-14.

Before we get to the particulars, though, let’s have a look at Southern Miss’ resume to date to see whether and to what degree a statistical comparison of the two teams might need to be adjusted for strength of schedule.

Southern Miss’ Schedule (5-3, 3-2 C-USA, NR)

• W1: Lost to Kentucky, 24-17.
• W2: Beat Southern, 45-0.
• W3: Beat UL Monroe, 28-17.
• W4: Bye
• W5: Lost to North Texas, 43-28.
• W6: Beat UTSA, 31-29.
• W7: Beat UTEP, 24-0.
• W8: Beat LA Tech, 34-27 in double overtime.
• W9: Lost to UAB, 30-12.
• W10: At Tennessee
• W11: At Rice
• W12: Charlotte
• W13: At Marshall

That schedule is ranked as the nation’s 87th most difficult. Tennessee’s schedule is ranked 6th now, so keep that disparity in mind as you look at the stats.

Stats

To Tennessee, Southern Miss’ defense looks most like Georgia Tech and Georgia on the ground, like South Carolina and Georgia Tech through the air, and like Kentucky and South Carolina on the scoreboard. It’s offense looks most like Florida on the ground, like South Carolina and UMass through the air and on the scoreboard.

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 134.4 rushing yards per game, while Southern Mississippi is giving up 127.6 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is Southern Mississippi, is Georgia Tech, which is giving up 131.7 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 148 against them. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Southern Mississippi is Georgia, which is allowing 94.8. Tennessee got 62 on the ground against Georgia. Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Southern Mississippi is roughly its average of 135.

Southern Mississippi rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 252.3 rushing yards per game, while the Southern Mississippi run game is averaging 175.0 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is getting 170.9 yards per game on the ground, and they got 168 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is averaging 284.0 rushing yards per game and got 294 against Tennessee. I’m guessing Southern Mississippi will get somewhere around its average of 175 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 174.8 passing yards per game, and Southern Mississippi is allowing 203.9. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is giving up 244.9 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 133 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia Tech. They’re allowing 198.4 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 221 against them. The comps aren’t particularly compelling for this piece, but I’m going with Tennessee putting up 200 passing yards this weekend.

Southern Mississippi passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 148.6 passing yards per game. Southern Mississippi is getting 263.6. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is getting 219.9 yards per game through the air, and they got 129 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Massachusetts, which is averaging 296.3 passing yards per game and got 137 against Tennessee. I’m going with Southern Mississippi putting up about 130 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 20.4 points per game, and Southern Mississippi is allowing 21.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Kentucky, which is allowing 24.9 points per game, and Tennessee got 26 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina. They’re allowing 20.3 points per game, and Tennessee got only 9 against them. My prediction is that Tennessee will score around 23 points against Southern Mississippi.

Southern Mississippi scoring

Tennessee is allowing 27.1 points per game. Southern Mississippi is averaging 27.4. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is averaging 26.3 points, and they got 15 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Massachusetts, which is averaging 29.9 points and got 13 against Tennessee. I’m going with Southern Mississippi putting up about 14 points against Tennessee.

SUMMARY

• Tennessee rushing yards: 135
• Southern Mississippi rushing yards: 175
• Tennessee passing yards: 200
• Southern Mississippi passing yards: 130
• Tennessee points: 23
• Southern Mississippi points: 14

Those are my eyeball-adjusted predictions. For the record, the SPM itself is spitting out Southern Miss 18.5, Tennessee 14.8.

Current betting lines and other statistical models

My eyeball-adjusted predictions are in agreement with Vegas on the line but not the over/under, as the spread opened at -7, with an over/under of 48.5. That makes it look more like Tennessee, 28-21 or so. That’s also in line with ESPN’s FPI, which gives the Vols an 85.3% chance of beating Southern Miss.

However, the S&P+ likes Southern Miss in this one and gives the Vols a mere 28% chance of winning, setting the game at Southern Miss, 29-18.7.

So although I and the FPI still like the Vols, both S&P+ and the SPM like Southern Miss to win outright.

Last Week

Here’s how the statsy preview machine did for the game between Tennessee and Kentucky last week.

• Tennessee rushing yards: 120 (actually 203)
• Kentucky rushing yards: 135 (actually 289)
• Tennessee passing yards: 220 (actually 242)
• Kentucky passing yards: 200 (actually 82)
• Tennessee points: 17 (actually 26)
• Kentucky points: 20 (actually 29)
• Winner and Margin of Victory: Kentucky -3 (actually Kentucky -3)

Again, those were eyeball-adjusted numbers. The SPM itself said Kentucky 23.8, Tennessee 18.3.

Did the Statsy Preview Machine win in Vegas?

The line was Kentucky -5.5, and the SPM said the same thing, so it didn’t play. With human intervention, we went with Tennessee covering, so we’ll call that a win. Overall, the SPM went 30-25 for the week, posting 54.55%. Over the three weeks we’ve been testing it, it’s gone 67.92%, 53.06%, and 54.55% for an overall rate of 58.6%.

Late yesterday, rumors began swirling that Tennessee offensive lineman Brett Kendrick had been concussed against Kentucky last Saturday night and that head coach Butch Jones had played him anyway. That report was immediately followed by speculation that Tennessee was running the same play Florida had just run on now-former head coach Jim McElwain. Let’s call it an End Run on the Buyout. The Gators, not happy with McElwain’s results as head coach, seized on McElwain’s misstep at a press conference and fired him for cause, avoiding or minimizing his buyout in the process. Based on this report, could the Vols do the same thing with Jones?

Whether John Currie and the Tennessee administration can use this incident as leverage in the severance negotiation with Jones all depends on what really happened, though, and if they are not careful, they could make more trouble for themselves down the road.

So what really happened?

It’s an absolute shame that the current shorthand for this story is inaccurate and yet being passed around as if it’s factual. I’m far from the old man on the porch screaming at passersby about the evils of Twitter, but it is a simple fact that most people read a headline in their newsfeed and formulate their opinions about topic without ever clicking through to read the actual article. It naturally follows from that that the headline – or the tweet or the lede – is extremely important. And in this unfortunate case, that part of the story was badly mishandled. It may turn out to be true, but at the time it was published, and at the time I’m publishing this, it is not.

So, what is the actual story? It originates from two texts from an anonymous source. Here are those texts:

“[Brett Kendrick] is resting in a dark room. He doesn’t remember anything about the second half of the game”

“They left him in until the last 22 seconds and only pulled him out because he finally threw up on the sideline.”

Those texts tell us that Kendrick doesn’t remember the second half of the Kentucky game and that he was held out of the game after he threw up on the sideline with 22 seconds remaining. An extended, unpublished version of the texts includes a statement from the source confirming that he or she believes that the cause for all of that was that Kendrick had a concussion the whole time. I’ve not seen anything else other than those statements.

The lede of the original story, though, jumped to serious accusations and conclusions. Here it is verbatim:

Communications received by The Read Optional show that Tennessee’s staff knowingly played a player with a concussion.

Wait, what? “Tennessee’s staff knowingly played a player with a concussion?”

First, as a preliminary matter, it’s not even clear whether Kendrick suffered an actual concussion. One source says he did, but it’s unclear whether that conclusion is based on the opinion of a medical professional.
But let’s assume that he did in fact have a concussion. There is still nothing in either of those texts that says anything one way or the other as to whether Butch Jones or the Tennessee staff had knowledge of the concussion and then continued to play him afterwards.

Whether or not they had knowledge is an absolutely crucial element to this entire story. Why? The risk of playing guys who might be concussed is an inescapable hazard of the trade. It’s football, and there’s no sign above a player’s head that starts blinking when he’s been concussed. (Helmet manufacturers, you can have that idea for free.) Sometimes, you don’t even have a signal to test for a concussion. Sure, if a player gets knocked unconscious, you’re putting him in concussion protocol immediately. But unless you want to give everyone a test after every play, you’re going to run the risk of not knowing until later. You do your best to minimize the risk, but you can’t play without taking some risk of playing guys when they should be resting.

And that’s where reasonableness and knowledge comes in. Did Jones and his staff have reasonable cause to check Kendrick? The original article says that Kendrick told staff at one point that he was “feeling woozy.” Is that enough to trigger a concussion check? I’m not a doctor, so don’t know. Let’s ask a sports physician and find out. Did he get a concussion check? Was it positive? Was it inconclusive?

We don’t know any of that, and until you know it, you don’t write, “Tennessee’s staff knowingly played a player with a concussion.”

All we know at the time that I’m writing this article is that one source believes Kendrick played much of the game with a concussion. That’s it. There are currently no reported facts supporting the assertion that Jones knew he had a concussion and played him anyway.

Is what happened leverage for Butch’s severance negotiation?

Maybe. Maybe not. We’ll have to make some assumptions to discuss each situation hypothetically.

Worst case scenario

First, let’s assume the worst case scenario for Jones. Let’s assume Kendrick took a nasty hit on a play, staggered off the field, complained of being woozy to a staff member, got immediately evaluated by a physician on the sideline, and was diagnosed with a concussion. Let’s further assume the physician told Jones that Kendrick was concussed and that he was out for the rest of the game and that Jones put him in the game anyway simply because he was running out of linemen.

If that’s the way it went down, then Jones is in a world of trouble. He’s at risk not only of losing his job and his buyout, he’s personally vulnerable to a lawsuit that he would almost certainly lose. The school, too, would be vulnerable to a lawsuit alleging vicarious liability of its employees.

That last part may explain the official statement from John Currie released this morning:

Lots of chatter about a concussion and Brett Kendrick. Here is the official statement from Tennessee AD @John_Currie: pic.twitter.com/5oNRv1sFro

— Austin Price (@AustinPriceless) November 1, 2017

That statement is well-crafted and may actually be posturing for several different scenarios (including some that allow the administration and Jones a common defense), but one thing it does is lay the groundwork for a vicarious liability defense. They’re essentially saying that the school shouldn’t be vicariously liable for Jones knowingly playing a concussed player because they have systems in place to make sure he doesn’t, and if he did, it’s outside the scope of his employment duties. I’m not saying it will work, but that’s the argument.

Bottom line, if Jones knowingly played a concussed player, he will rightly have to suffer the consequences. He can then be fired for cause, and he will lose his buyout.

More probable scenario

But let’s assume now that the facts are much muddier than that. Say Kendrick had been battling the flu all week, and so when he complained to the staff about being woozy, they thought it was just that. Suppose they never had reasonable cause to give him a concussion check until he threw up, and so they never knew until then.

In that scenario, there are arguments on both sides about whether Jones and his staff should have known. And this is where Currie needs to be careful about trying to use it to ease Jones on out the door.
The danger lies in what I mentioned above about accidentally playing concussed players being an inevitable risk of the game of football. If I was advising Currie, I would warn him that using that to terminate Jones and claim he was not entitled to his buyout would be viewed as a pretext for the termination and also that it would set a dangerous precedent for the next coach. If you’re going to fire Jones for accidentally playing a concussed player, then you’d better fire the next guy for doing it, too. And the next guy might not be losing in his fifth year but winning like Nick Saban in his second. Plus, you’d better have a good explanation to the new coaches you’re trying to recruit to replace Jones when they ask if they’ll lose their buyout for accidentally playing a concussed player.

That’s not to say that you don’t use everything you have in severance negotiations. They’re probably discussing it. Both sides are probably beating their chests about the facts and the consequences, and both sides are likely working their way toward a compromise in the process.

If Jones knew Kendrick had a concussion and played him anyway, he’ll be terminated, and he won’t get a penny of his buyout. If Jones instead did nothing wrong, Tennessee should give the man his buyout like they promised him and not use a shoddy news report for leverage. If the truth is somewhere in between, then both sides should investigate and work out a resolution based on those findings.

I just hope they all take the time to discover the facts before they draw their conclusions.

Here’s the Week 10 college football TV schedule, curated for Vols fans. It includes kickoff times, TV stations, and what might be of interest to a Vols fan. It also includes helpful suggestions on how to watch everything most efficiently and who to root for in each game.

The full schedule for the entire weekend is also included at the bottom of the post.

Go Vols!

Friday, November 3

 

If you’re suddenly interested in coaches of other teams, that Memphis-Tulsa game has a couple of interesting dudes roaming the sidelines.

Gameday, November 4

Oh, look. Two night games in a row for the Vols. So enjoy your afternoon appetizers before heading out to Neyland to support Tennessee at 7:30.

 

Noon slot

Are you suddenly curious what happens to a team if it fires its coach in the middle of the season? Find out with Florida at Missouri at noon! Do you think there’s no way in Hades any fan base feels worse than Tennessee’s right now? Tune in to watch the Seminoles at 12:20!

Afternoon slot

Man, there are some really interesting games in this time slot this week. Two ranked-vs-ranked, including a nationally-relevant rivalry game with a nickname, plus a huge Cinderella story in the making with Matt Campbell and the Iowa State Cyclones. Dilly Dilly!

Evening slot

Go Vols, and then Go Tigahs. And I don’t know who you root for in the Hokies-Hurricanes game, but it should be a good one.

Complete college football TV schedule for Week 10

And here’s the complete schedule for the week, paginated and searchable!