Will McBride
Football

Tennessee’s season-ending forecast: two of three will be tough

Written by Joel Hollingsworth on

More in Football:

With three games to go, the Vols are hoping to win out but may be looking at a rough finish instead.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

The Vols after Southern Miss

The Vols got a much-needed win against the Golden Eagles, but a win over a 5-4 Conference USA team doesn’t provide much boost in expectations the rest of the way. The defense is finding itself, and the offense got over its allergy to the end zone this week, but they are THIN on that side of the ball. For now, any change in expectations for the last three games will have to come, if at all, from the opponents.

The Vols’ future opponents

11/11/17: Missouri (4-5, 1-4 SEC, NR)

  • W1: Beat Missouri State 72-43.
  • W2: Lost to South Carolina, 31-13.
  • W3: Lost to Purdue, 35-3.
  • W4: Lost to #15 Auburn, 51-14.
  • W5: Bye
  • W6: Lost to Kentucky, 40-34.
  • W7: Lost to #4 Georgia, 53-28.
  • W8: Beat Idaho, 68-21.
  • W9: Beat UConn, 52-12.
  • W10: Beat Florida, 45-16.
  • W11: Tennessee
  • W12: At Vanderbilt
  • W13: At Arkansas

Expectations for a Vols win: Missouri, which had lost five of its first six games, has now won its last three, including a jack-hammering of the Florida Gators. We’ll obviously take a closer look at these guys all this upcoming week, but they look like they could be a real problem for the Vols this weekend. I’d had the game at 50/50 for the past several weeks, but I’m putting it at 40% now.

PREDICTIONS – MISSOURI
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
70 65 70 70 70 50 50 50 50 50 40

11/18/17: LSU (6-3, 3-2 SEC, #19)

  • W1: Beat BYU, 27-0.
  • W2: Beat Chattanooga, 45-10.
  • W3: Lost to Mississippi State, 37-7.
  • W4: Beat Syracuse, 35-26.
  • W5: Lost at home, during Homecoming, to Troy, 24-21.
  • W6: Beat #21 Florida, 17-16.
  • W7: Beat #10 Auburn, 27-23.
  • W8: Beat Ole Miss, 40-24.
  • W9: Bye
  • W10: Lost to #2 Alabama, 24-10.
  • W11: Arkansas
  • W12: At #25 Tennessee
  • W13: Texas A&M

Expectations for a Vols win: LSU actually outgained Alabama 306-299, but just couldn’t get points on the board. This one’s tough, but we knew it was going to be tough, so I’m keeping it at 25%.

PREDICTIONS – LSU
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
25 25 25 45 45 50 50 30 25 25 25

11/25/17: Vanderbilt (4-5, 0-5 SEC, NR)

  • W1: Beat MTSU, 28-6.
  • W2: Beat Alabama A&M, 42-0.
  • W3: Beat #19 Kansas State, 14-7.
  • W4: Lost to #1 Alabama, 59-0.
  • W5: Lost to #21 Florida, 38-24.
  • W6: Lost to #5 Georgia, 45-14.
  • W7: Lost to Ole Miss, 57-35.
  • W8: Bye
  • W9: Lost to South Carolina, 34-27.
  • W10: Beat Western Kentucky, 31-17.
  • W11: Kentucky
  • W12: Missouri
  • W13: At #25 Tennessee

Expectations for a Vols win: Vanderbilt milked that Kansas State win for everything it was worth, but then went on a five-game losing streak against a gauntlet of a schedule. The win against WKU this weekend confirms that they’re still a threat to a struggling Tennessee team. Keeping this a 50/50 game.

PREDICTIONS – VANDERBILT
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
72 72 65 55 55 50 50 50 50 50 50

All of that puts me at 5.15 wins. Use this form to get your own calculation:

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia Tech (4-4, 3-3 ACC, RV)

No shame in losing to Clemson, but the loss this week to Virginia has to hurt.

Indiana State (0-9, 0-6 MVFC, NR)

  • W1: Lost to E Illinois, 22-20.
  • W2: Lost to Tennessee, 42-7.
  • W3: Lost to Liberty, 42-41 on a blocked 23-yard field goal attempt as time expired.
  • W4: Bye
  • W5: Lost to Illinois State, 24-13.
  • W6: Lost to North Dakota State, 52-0.
  • W7: Lost to South Dakota, 56-6.
  • W8: Lost to S Illinois, 45-24.
  • W9: Lost to Missouri State, 59-20.
  • W10: Lost to Youngstown State, 66-24.
  • W11: W Illinois
  • W12: At Northern Iowa

Florida (3-5, 3-4 SEC, NR)

  • W1: Lost to #11 Michigan, 33-17.
  • W2: Canceled game with N Colorado.
  • W3: Beat #25 Tennessee, 26-20.
  • W4: Beat Kentucky, 28-27.
  • W5: Beat Vanderbilt, 38-24.
  • W6: Lost to LSU, 17-16 on a missed extra point due to a bad snap and hold.
  • W7: Lost to Texas A&M, 19-17.
  • W8: Bye
  • W9: Lost to #3 Georgia, 42-7. Fired their coach.
  • W10: Lost at Missouri, 45-16.
  • W11: At South Carolina
  • W12: UAB
  • W13: Florida State

Four-game losing streak for the Gators.

UMass (2-7, 0-0 IND, NR)

  • W1: Lost to Hawaii, 38-35.
  • W2: Lost to C. Carolina, 38-28.
  • W3: Lost to Old Dominion, 17-7.
  • W4: Lost to Temple, 29-21.
  • W5: Lost to Tennessee, 17-13.
  • W6: Lost to Ohio, 58-50.
  • W7: Bye
  • W8: At USF (canceled)
  • W9: Beat Ga Southern, 55-20.
  • W10: Beat Appalachian State in double overtime, 30-27.
  • W11: Lost to #16 Mississippi State, 34-23.
  • W12: Maine
  • W13: At BYU

Georgia (9-0, 6-0 SEC, #1)

  • W1: Beat Appalachian State, 31-10. QB Jacob Eason went down, but freshman Jake Fromm looked good and took care of business.
  • W2: Beat #24 Notre Dame, 20-19.
  • W3: Beat Samford, 42-14.
  • W4: Easily handled #17 Mississippi State, 31-3.
  • W5: Demoralized Tennessee, 41-0.
  • W6: Beat Vanderbilt, 45-14.
  • W7: Beat Missouri, 53-28.
  • W8: Bye
  • W9: Beat Florida, 42-7.
  • W10: Beat South Carolina, 24-10.
  • W11: At #13 Auburn
  • W12: Kentucky
  • W13: At Georgia Tech

I think these guys have the best chance of anyone toppling Alabama in a long time.

South Carolina (6-3, 4-3 SEC, NR)

  • W1: Beat NC State, 35-28.
  • W2: Beat Missouri, 31-13.
  • W3: Lost to Kentucky, 23-13.
  • W4: Beat LA Tech, 17-16.
  • W5: Lost to Texas A&M, 24-17.
  • W6: Beat Arkansas, 48-22.
  • W7: Beat Tennessee, 15-9.
  • W8: Bye
  • W9: Beat Vanderbilt, 34-27.
  • W10: Lost to #1 Georgia, 24-10.
  • W11: Florida
  • W12: Wofford
  • W13: Clemson

Alabama (9-0, 6-0 SEC, #2)

  • W1: Beat #3 Florida State, 24-7.
  • W2: Beat Fresno State, 41-10.
  • W3: Beat Colorado State, 41-23.
  • W4: Beat Vanderbilt, 59-0.
  • W5: Beat Ole Miss, 66-3.
  • W6: Beat Texas A&M, 27-19.
  • W7: Beat Arkansas, 41-9.
  • W8: Beat Tennessee, 45-7.
  • W9: Bye
  • W10: Beat #19 LSU, 24-10.
  • W11: At Mississippi State
  • W12: Mercer
  • W13: At #13 Auburn

Kentucky (6-3, 3-3 SEC, NR)

  • W1: Beat Southern Miss, 24-17.
  • W2: Best E Kentucky, 27-16.
  • W3: Beat South Carolina, 23-13.
  • W4: Lost to #20 Florida, 28-27.
  • W5: Beat E Michigan, 24-20.
  • W6: Beat Missouri, 40-34.
  • W7: Bye
  • W8: Lost to Mississippi State, 45-7.
  • W9: Best Tennessee, 29-26.
  • W10: Lost to Ole Miss, 37-34.
  • W11: At Vanderbilt
  • W12: At #15 Georgia
  • W13: #17 Lousiville

Southern Miss (5-4, 3-2 C-USA, NR)

  • W1: Lost to Kentucky, 24-17.
  • W2: Beat Southern, 45-0.
  • W3: Beat UL Monroe, 28-17.
  • W4: Bye
  • W5: Lost to North Texas, 43-28.
  • W6: Beat UTSA, 31-29.
  • W7: Beat UTEP, 24-0.
  • W8: Beat LA Tech, 34-27 in double overtime.
  • W9: Lost to UAB, 30-12.
  • W10: Lost to Tennessee, 24-10.
  • W11: At Rice
  • W12: Charlotte
  • W13: At Marshall

Comments are closed.