Vols draw on renewed energy to survive a scare from South Carolina, 70-67

The Tennessee basketball team was looking to put a humiliating loss to Alabama last Saturday behind them with a great performance against South Carolina last night, and it’s a good thing they came out with a lot more energy and focus than they displayed against the Tide because without it, they would have lost to a Gamecocks team that was on a five-game losing streak.

As it turns out, though, that energy, effort, and focus translated into a good 70-67 win over Frank Martin’s South Carolina team in Thompson-Boling last night.

They looked much better right out of the gate, but the Gamecocks were looking good as well, and the Vols had a tough time pulling away. They led by as many as 10 points in the first half and went into halftime leading 38-34.

Carolina came out swinging in the second, though, and tied the game at 40 early. When Tennessee answered by going on an 18-5 run, the Gamecocks responded with a 10-0 run of their own.

As the game wound down, Carolina continued chipping away at the Vols’ lead and narrowed it to a single point with 36 seconds left. At that point, the Vols advanced the ball to halfcourt, called a timeout, and designed a play for Grant Williams on the block. Good call, as Williams hit a well-contested shot just before the double-team arrived and put his team up 70-67 with 11 seconds to go.

Rick Barnes instructed his team to foul on Carolina’s final possession, and they didn’t, but Carolina missed a desperation three anyway, and the Vols went to the showers with a 70-67 win.

Williams led Tennessee with a solid all-around night:

Despite the return of the energy, defense, and focus that has characterized this team most of the season, the recent trend of turnovers by Tennessee’s guards is beginning to become a bit worrisome. It’s entirely unexpected for a team with such a high assist percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio on the season.

But it was a win, and the Vols move to sole possession of second place in the SEC standings with a record of 9-4, 1.5 games behind Auburn. Next up is a trip to Georgia this Saturday at 6:00 p.m.

 

Tennessee Vols vs. South Carolina Gamecocks: game time, TV channel, and game thread

The Vols, still licking their wounds from a tough night at Alabama last weekend, hope to put it all behind them against South Carolina at home tonight. The game tips at 9:00 and will be televised on ESPNU. Online, you can catch it at WatchESPN.

See you in the comments below.

Go Vols!

 

What Shouldn’t We Burn From This Film?

For whatever percentage of today was Tennessee feeling too good about itself, this loss was a good thing going forward. I don’t know how high that percentage is, but I’m sure it’s there after the win at Rupp and whispers of one seeds. The Vols were humbled today.

And whatever percentage was effort, with Alabama holding a double-digit rebounding advantage for much of the day? I’d imagine it will be corrected, much the same as when it presented itself in the loss to Auburn. Rick Barnes is putting a lot of it on these two things in the postgame.

Alabama still has a murderous schedule left, but their potential is quite high. The margin was zero fun, but this won’t go in the books as a bad loss. It’s certainly not great to see the Vols take their largest defeat of the year, but Tennessee should still have six losses to six NCAA Tournament teams. Credit the Tide for playing so well.

My biggest concern, both coming in and going out of this game, is Tennessee’s struggle to defend elite guard play.

The Vols have given up 80+ points four times this year. Alabama only got 78, but as the backups played the last several minutes I’m counting this one as 80+. And every time, the opposition gets there through its guards:

  • Villanova Bridges & Brunson: 15-of-26 (57.7%), 45 points
  • Arkansas Barford & Macon: 20-of-36 (55.6%), 61 points
  • Auburn Brown & Harper: 10-of-30 (30%), 36 points
  • Vanderbilt LaChance & Lee: 13-of-25 (52%), 37 points
  • Alabama Petty & Sexton: 10-of-17 (58.8%), 30 points

To be clear, the Vols don’t always get blown up by great guards. Tennessee’s problem with Auburn, as you can see, wasn’t defending outright. It was giving up 22 offensive rebounds. Tennessee also shut down Iowa State’s guards, which is harder than it looked as it turns out.

But against great guards from Villanova, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Alabama, the Vols have had a tough time keeping them off the scoreboard. And while some have been hot from the arc, most often they have taken advantage of Tennessee off the dribble. That’s how much of Alabama’s massive advantage in the paint happened today.

And today was the first time the Vols got punched by great guards, and their own guards didn’t punch back. Alabama’s defense has always been good, and today they held Bone, Daniel, and Turner to 3-of-14 (21.4%) and 10 points. That’s how this Tennessee team gets blown out.

So perhaps Alabama is just a bad match-up. When the other team isn’t so strong defensively, you get Arkansas and Vanderbilt (and while Vandy didn’t score 80+ in the second meeting and Saben Lee went 0-for-4, Riley LaChance and Jeff Roberson combined for 17-of-32 and 46 points). But until Tennessee consistently proves otherwise, it’s something you’ll be searching your bracket for.

File it away; the Vols will get another test against great guards from Florida on February 21. Even great teams have weaknesses; Alabama just exploited what appears to be Tennessee’s better than anyone else.

Tennessee Vols at Alabama Crimson Tide: game time, TV channel, and online game-watching party

Coming off a stellar win and sweep-completing win at Rupp Arena Tuesday night, No. 15 Tennessee now takes its six-game winning streak on the road to Alabama this evening. The game tips at 6:00 and will be televised on the SEC Network. Online, you can catch it at WatchESPN.

While you’re waiting, have a listen to Will on Sports 180 with Josh Ward and Will West yesterday:

See you in the comments below.

Go Vols!

 

Tennessee at Alabama Preview

The race is on for the SEC title: Auburn opened the door with a one-point home loss to Texas A&M Wednesday night. The Tigers remain one game up on Tennessee with seven to play, two up if you’re looking to win this thing outright. The head-to-head police department is here to remind you it’s difficult to call the Vols SEC Champions with an entirely straight face if they finish tied with Auburn. But I’m sure we’ll take what we can get.

KenPom and RPI Forecast project the Vols to finish 13-5 in the SEC, a 5-2 homestretch. KenPom has Auburn at 14-4 (likewise 5-2), but RPI Forecast now projects them at 13-5. ESPN’s BPI predicts 13.8 conference wins for Auburn, 13.6 for Tennessee.

Here are the final seven games for each team, with win probabilities from KenPom:

Tennessee   Auburn
at Alabama 64% at Georgia 68%
South Carolina 90% Kentucky 75%
at Georgia 69% at South Carolina 72%
Florida 80% Alabama 83%
at Ole Miss 74% at Florida 55%
at Mississippi State 66% at Arkansas 60%
Georgia 87% South Carolina 89%

(Oddly enough, the Vols and Tigers have the exact same remaining home/away dates.)

A clearer SEC hierarchy is starting to take hold in KenPom. Tennessee remains seventh, with Auburn 10th after the loss to A&M. The Aggies are now the third-best team in the league in KenPom, living up to their non-conference body of work at #23. Kentucky, Missouri, and Florida are all between 28-36.

But over in the Bracket Matrix, there’s a slightly different pecking order. Auburn and Tennessee both find themselves in the chase for a one or, more likely, a two seed. Kentucky hovers as a five. From there, the SEC has five teams currently seeded between eight and ten.

Alabama is in the thick of that race. They are eighth in the league in KenPom (53rd overall), seventh in RPI (42nd), and a nine seed in the matrix. But their remaining schedule is a nightmare: Tennessee, LSU, at Kentucky, at Auburn, Arkansas, Florida, at Texas A&M. That’s six of the other seven SEC teams in the matrix left to play, and they’re coming off a loss at Mississippi State.

What Alabama does well:

  • Collin Sexton gets 18.6 points in 29.7 minutes, a projected lottery pick. I still think Tennessee’s biggest trouble spot is defending elite guard play; here’s another opportunity before the NCAA Tournament to see what we’ve learned. Bama doesn’t necessarily go as he goes: the Tide beat Auburn without him, while he put 23 on Missouri two weeks ago but the Tigers won.
  • Shot-blocking. The Tide are sixth nationally in block percentage, sending back 16.4% of opponent shots. 6’9″ Donta Hall is the leader here, 23rd nationally in individual block percentage and sending back 2.3 shots per game.
  • Defense, and generally all facets of it. The Tide give up just 31% from the arc on the year, 23rd nationally, and just 29.1% in SEC play. Opponents shoot just 41.1% against them overall. They’re 15th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings. Alabama is 7-0 when holding opponents to 64 points or less, including wins over Rhode Island, Texas A&M, and Florida.

Where Alabama struggles is fairly straightforward:  threes and free throws. They beat Auburn and Oklahoma with above-average performances from the arc, shooting 18-of-42 (42.9%) combined. But on the year the Tide shoot 32.3% from three, 301st nationally. And they are 273rd from the line at just 68.4%.

Alabama’s overall offense isn’t consistent enough to win ugly, despite their great defense. The Tide are 1-7 when shooting less than 43.5%; by contrast, the Vols have nine wins while shooting below 43.5%. So even if Tennessee finds itself in Bama’s kind of game, the Vols are much better at winning ugly than they are.

6:00 PM Saturday on the SEC Network. Can the Vols sweep the week and survive what could be their most difficult test in these final seven games?

 

Tennessee Wins in Rupp Arena 61-59

If you are new to this team or this program in 2018, it’s hard to put into words what winning in Rupp Arena means for Tennessee. Take all this win means for this individual season – and it will be significant – and set it aside. We’ve got an extra day before going to Tuscaloosa, and we’ll take it. There will be plenty of words to come about seeding, brackets, RPI, etc.

Rupp Arena opened for the 1976-77 season. The Vols won twice in the first four years. In the 38 years since, the Vols had two wins: 1999 in an ugly affair like tonight, and 2006 because Chris Lofton willed it to be so.

Many, many Tennessee teams have gone into Rupp and left something beyond embarrassed. In 1993 the Vols lost to Kentucky at the SEC Tournament at Rupp by 61 points. The next four years they lost by 19, 19, 17, and 34. When the Cats came to Knoxville you could at least hope, even if only for a couple of media timeouts. When the Vols went to Lexington, hope died at the state line.

And when Tennessee Basketball came to life, first under Jerry Green and then Bruce Pearl, the results only changed those two times. Two wins in the last 19 years is bad without the 19 years of bad before it. The #6 Vols went to Rupp in 2000, en route to the Sweet 16, and lost by 13. Bruce Pearl’s 2007 team, also a Sweet 16 participant, lost by 19 in Rupp. The 2008 squad was ranked third when they faced an unraked UK team in Rupp; they lost by six. The next four years Tennessee lost by 19, 11, 12, 25, and 10. Cuonzo’s last team got it down to eight.

Rick Barnes’ first team lost in Rupp by 10. Last year the Vols lost by 25 in Lexington.

Tonight, we won.

Rick Barnes is now 4-2 against Kentucky at Tennessee.

Play this game ten times, each team wins five

If it felt like you couldn’t breathe watching this one, that’s because the entire game was played within one possession, except for one possession. Tennessee went up 50-46 on two Grant Williams free throws with 4:54 to play. That lasted ten seconds before PJ Washington hit two free throws. And that was the start of a 7-0 Kentucky run to put the Cats on the cusp of a two-possession lead, 53-50 with 3:18 to play.

Jordan Bowden kept pace with Tennessee’s next four points. Grant Williams hit two free throws when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed one. But when Gilgeous-Alexander made a jumper to put the Cats up two with 90 seconds left, Admiral Schofield missed a three. Kentucky had the ball and a two-point lead with 1:09 to play.

It wasn’t just the scoreboard, but the stat sheet as well that proved how close these two teams were tonight. Tennessee shot 42.3%, Kentucky 42.2%. Tennessee hit 23.8% from the arc, Kentucky 21.6%. The Vols were 14-of-16 (85.7%) at the line; Kentucky shot just 72% but got there more often, going 18-of-25.

Tennessee was +1 in offensive rebounding, +2 overall. Both teams blocked four shots. Kentucky had 15 turnovers, Tennessee 13. One foul separated these two teams.

But the most important difference for Tennessee was steals. Most of UT’s turnovers were self-inflicted. Most of Kentucky’s were Tennessee takeaways.

The Vols had nine steals, and two of them came in that final 1:09. Kyle Alexander came up with the first, giving them a chance to tie or take the lead. Tennessee struggled to run its offense all night; Grant Williams had just three shot attempts thanks to excellent work denying him the ball by Kentucky. Admiral Schofield’s 12 points came on 16 shots. Jordan Bowden had 13 points but was 1-of-5 from the arc.

So when in doubt on their most important possession of a game when every possession mattered, the answer was Lamonte Turner.

He was the answer at the end of regulation against Purdue, another 50/50 affair with an even better opponent. And he may very well represent Tennessee’s true ceiling in March. The Vols are a great basketball team. When he’s hot, they are an elite one.

His “why not?” three will probably leave Kentucky fans asking the opposite question, and that’s fine. A game like tonight could have gone either way. But they only go one way in the end, and tonight Tennessee wasn’t just close in Rupp, they cashed in.

Turner’s three led to the second steal in those final 61 seconds, as Jordan Bowden found the ball and found Schofield on a run-out to put the Vols up three with four seconds to play. They survived a missed Kentucky free throw in the final second, survived the building, and are helping Tennessee fans survive enormous disappointment on the football side. It’s funny how it works, but for the third time in a dozen years – after missing bowl eligibility for the first time in 17 years in 2005, watching Lane Kiffin leave in the middle of the night in January 2010, and everything that went sideways last fall – Tennessee is putting together a truly special basketball season from the ashes of autumn.

For that, for tonight, and for everything Rick Barnes has done for a program that can proudly stand on its own two feet, and quite tall tonight…for everything, we are grateful.

Enjoy this.

Tennessee Vols at Kentucky Wildcats: game time, TV, and online game-watching party

The Vols travel up the road to Lexington and Rupp Arena looking for a rare road victory and season sweep against the Kentucky Wildcats this evening. The game tips at 7:00 p.m. and will be televised on ESPN. You can catch it online via WatchESPN.

Just in case you’re not quite in the mood yet, this should help:

And while you’re waiting . . .


Our players are more talented than yours, nanananananana.

Tonight, we’re experimenting with including a curated Twitter stream of Tennessee media folks we follow in hopes that filtering out some of the non-game noise will make Twitter less of a distraction and more of a complement to the game. We’ll see how it goes.

See you in the comments below.

Go Vols!

Tennessee at Kentucky Preview

You know the numbers by now: four wins in the 40-year history of Rupp Arena, none since 2006. Tonight an even bigger prize is on the table: Tennessee hasn’t swept Kentucky since 1999.

In the north, Calipari calls for aid:

When the head coach of a program like Kentucky basketball (or Tennessee football) posts something like this, things aren’t going as well as they’d like. The Cats are 17-6 (6-4), hanging on at 24th in the AP poll. A three-game win streak was snapped at Missouri on Saturday; Florida beat them in Rupp three weeks ago.

Three keys for tonight’s opportunity:

  • Who has the better game: Admiral Schofield or PJ Washington? In our first meeting, Washington had 13 points on 6-of-8 shooting, but played just 23 minutes with cramps. While Tennessee’s post players will have to do a better job defending Washington this time, Schofield plays the corresponding role on the other end of the floor. Rick Barnes loves to attack Kentucky with undersized bigs:  Armani Moore had terrific games against the Cats, Schofield had 15 points off the bench in Tennessee’s win over #4 Kentucky last season, and followed up with 20 points and nine rebounds in Knoxville earlier this year. Grant Williams will get the attention, but Tennessee needs Schofield to take advantage to get this thing done.
  • Kentucky’s three-point shooting. This season Kentucky is 16-1 when they shoot at least 30% from the arc, 1-5 when they don’t. If I was a Kentucky fan, I’d take comfort in this stat: 30% isn’t much to ask for, and when the Cats can splash just a few threes to go with their incredible talent, they’re really tough to beat. But the memories of John Calipari’s first team in Lexington – still the only one at UK to feature a pair of NBA All-Stars in John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins – would also make me a little uneasy. That team lost in Knoxville because it made only two three-pointers, then lost in the Elite Eight for basically the same reason. The good news for Tennessee: the Vols are the one in 16-1 this season, beating Kentucky despite the Cats hitting 7-of-19 (36.8%) from the arc.
  • Kevin Knox is Kentucky’s leading scorer at 15.1 points per game. But he has struggled in Kentucky’s four SEC losses. The Vols held him to six points on 1-of-9 shooting. At South Carolina he had 21 points on 16 shots, but went 1-of-8 from the arc. Florida held him to nine, and Missouri held him to five last time out. Tennessee’s defense has been more vulnerable to elite guard play; they did really well against the 6’9″ Knox the first time around, but how will it go in Rupp?

You know you’re having an incredible year when losing in Rupp could be considered a disappointment. The history of this series in Lexington makes me feel like this is a nothing-to-lose date for Tennessee. But the narrative of Tennessee’s season suggests the opposite. The Vols have stared down better foes, but if Calipari gets his wish, not a more hostile environment. Can this Tennessee team pull off one of the program’s rarest feats?

7:00 PM ET on the big boy network for once, Dickie V and all, baby.

Let’s win.

 

How High Could Tennessee Realistically Be Seeded?

If Tennessee’s third straight 20+ point win didn’t give you the vapors, this definitely will:

Deep breaths.

This is a ceiling week for Tennessee: at Kentucky, at Alabama. These two and a visit from Florida on February 21 are the remaining signature wins on Tennessee’s schedule. The Vols also have a second date with Ole Miss, plus four games with teams currently on the wrong side of the bubble: two with Georgia, a visit from South Carolina and a trip to Starkville.

So here’s some good news if the topic of this post is a little too much for you: if the Vols just go 4-4 in these last eight games, they’ll finish 21-9 (11-7) with a projected RPI of 20. The Sagrain ratings at RPI Forecast project a 5-3 finish, Ken Pomeroy’s like 6-2. And so does ESPN’s BPI, which thinks so highly of the Vols as a one seed.

Before last weekend, I felt like thinking of the Vols as a three seed was greedy. After missing both the NCAAs and NIT the last three years, it’s good for us to be cautious. But BPI has no such burden.

Villanova, Purdue, Virginia and…

The only three teams to receive first place votes in both polls, this trio is clearly college basketball’s top tier. They also go 1-2-3 in KenPom. Villanova is +33.22 in adjusted efficiency margin; only 2015 Kentucky and the team that beat them from Wisconsin have finished above 33 in KenPom in the last six years. Virginia is right behind them at 32.86, with Purdue at 29.85. They have four losses between them; Virginia and Purdue are a combined 23-0 in conference play.

Five weeks is still a long time til Selection Sunday, but these three are putting significant distance between themselves and the field. But that fourth one seed?

Can Tennessee really get in the mix? Should we even take Tennessee seriously as a potential two seed?

Historical Context: The Last One Seed & The Four Twos

I’d expect Tennessee to be a three in the Bracket Matrix this week. What would it take for the Vols to go higher than that?

Here’s how the last one seed and the four two seeds have looked on Selection Sunday since 2012, using the selection committee’s seed list (thanks, Wikipedia) with RPI ratings from Real Time RPI and pre-tournament KenPom data:

Seed Team Record RPI KenPom
2017 L1 Gonzaga 32-1 8 1
2017 2A Kentucky 29-5 4 4
2017 2B Arizona 30-4 2 21
2017 2C Duke 27-8 6 14
2017 2D Louisville 24-8 7 6
2016 L1 Oregon 28-6 2 13
2016 2A Michigan State 29-5 12 2
2016 2B Oklahoma 25-7 6 8
2016 2C Villanova 29-5 4 5
2016 2D Xavier 27-5 7 18
2015 L1 Wisconsin 31-3 4 2
2015 2A Virginia 29-3 7 5
2015 2B Arizona 31-3 5 3
2015 2C Gonzaga 32-2 8 7
2015 2D Kansas 26-8 3 12
2014 L1 Virginia 28-6 9 4
2014 2A Villanova 28-4 5 7
2014 2B Michigan 25-8 10 12
2014 2C Kansas 24-9 3 5
2014 2D Wisconsin 26-7 6 10
2013 L1 Gonzaga 31-2 6 4
2013 2A Miami 27-6 4 13
2013 2B Duke 27-5 1 5
2013 2C Georgetown 25-6 11 15
2013 2D Ohio State 26-7 10 7
2012 L1 Michigan State 27-7 3 3
2012 2A Kansas 27-6 6 4
2012 2B Duke 27-6 5 13
2012 2C Ohio State 27-7 7 2
2012 2D Missouri 30-4 10 5

A couple observations:

  • The last one seed had six or seven losses three times in the last six years. Two other times it was Gonzaga. Only once, with Wisconsin in 2015, have we seen four truly dominant power conference options on the first line.
  • Of the 24 two seeds in the last six years, nine had between 7-9 losses.
  • All 30 teams represented here had an RPI of 12 or better. 28 of them had a KenPom rating of 15 or better. RPI isn’t the best way to judge a basketball team, but the committee still values it, especially at the top. Strength of schedule matters, and the Vols will be in good shape there.

What does Tennessee need for an RPI of 12 or better? RPI Forecast puts the Vols at 11 if they finish 23-7, 15 if they’re 22-8. There would still be an opportunity for those numbers to go up or down at the SEC Tournament (and remember, unless the Vols are going to win the SEC Tournament for the first time since 1979, they’ll pick up an additional loss in St. Louis).

History suggests if the Vols want that last one seed, they’re going to need a 7-1 finish, or 6-2 and an SEC Tournament title. Both RPI and BPI project all the other teams in the hunt for the last one seed to finish with fewer losses than Tennessee, and considering the pedigree of that list, I’m not sure the Vols would get the benefit of the doubt. A one seed seems unlikely.

But a two seed? That’s doable.

Even a 5-3 finish would get the Vols in that conversation. Tennessee’s resume is extremely strong, as is the SEC’s reputation this year. Going 6-2 in these last eight would make Tennessee awfully hard to deny on the two line.

The most meaningful opportunity left in the regular season is the next one. We’ll know a lot more about Tennessee’s ceiling this time next week. But from a distance, it’s quite high. And while a one seed might be a little out of reach, a two is not…and this team would probably be a three if the tournament started today.

What a ridiculous thought that was at the start of the year. And what an incredible job Rick Barnes and this team have done.

Lots of good work still on the table. Go Vols.

Tennessee 94 Ole Miss 61 – What Great Teams Do

The Vols have been checking off all the signs of a great team this season:

  • Signature wins (Purdue, Kentucky, get back to me on Texas A&M)
  • Competitive with elite teams (Villanova, North Carolina, Auburn?)
  • No bad losses

The graduate-level version of no bad losses is, “Blow out bad teams.” Add another check.

After letting Vanderbilt rally from down 20 to within two before surviving, the Vols have discarded drama: beat Iowa State by 23, beat LSU by 23, and today beat Ole Miss by 33.

Look at all this: 53.2% from the floor, 13-of-29 (44.8%) from the arc, 78.9% from the line, 27 assists on 33 made baskets, and six turnovers. Ole Miss shot 11-of-25 (44%) from three and lost by 33!

Next week was going to be a ceiling week before today’s result: the Vols are at Kentucky, then at Alabama. Tennessee hasn’t won at Rupp since 2006, hasn’t swept Kentucky since 1999, and has four wins in the history of that building. Alabama just dominated Florida in Gainesville and beat Oklahoma in Tuscaloosa last weekend.

But what might be on the other side of next week now seems even higher. The Vols are a four seed in the Bracket Matrix; I’ve thought for weeks this team had 4-6 potential, which is amazing compared to preseason expectations. But saying Tennessee is a great team and Tennessee can beat anybody is a long way from hyperbole now. I think we can start dreaming a little bigger. The Vols have earned it.

Big, big week ahead. Enjoy it.