Category Archives: Basketball

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Vanderbilt Commodores. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season:

This makes it look like Vanderbilt is shooting better than Tennessee and getting to the line more often, but that the Vols are rebounding better. Let’s take a closer look.

Summary and Score Prediction

Let’s hope some of this bad news is the result of hitting the reset button too many times, thus dropping a team in search of chemistry into a field full of opponents with a head start in finding their own. Still, the Vols need to improve almost everything, and shooting better and limiting turnovers are chief on the long list of important tasks. They’ll have opportunities against Vanderbilt, but they’ll also need to make sure they stay in character on defense as well to come out of Nashville with a win tomorrow.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Shoot better. Start with getting the ball to John Fulkerson in the post. Aim for a better percentage than Vanderbilt both from the field and from the arc. (I know — duh. But if they do that, they’ll be shooting better than usual and also holding Vanderbilt to something less than theirs.)
2. Limit the turnovers. Ten or fewer would be good.
3. Capitalize on the rebounding advantage.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 64% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 71, Vanderbilt 67. Sounds about right to me.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: The Commodores are a much better shooting team than the Vols. In fact, they’re the best-shooting team we’ve played this season and very similar to LSU in this regard.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Vanderbilt also protects the ball much better than Tennessee does (obvs). They are most similar to FSU among prior Vols opponents.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: The Vols have the advantage in offensive rebounding, and the Commodores are most similar to Florida A&M and Chattanooga in this category.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Most similar to Memphis (and Murray State) and with a pretty significant advantage over the Vols.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is a dismal 47.9 (No. 232), but it will be going up against a similarly dismal defense that is 51.5 (No. 253).

When Vanderbilt has the ball

The Commodores’ eFG% is 54 (No. 25), but Tennessee’s shooting defense is 44.6 (No. 31).

Conclusions

When it comes to shooting percentages, it’s weakness-on-weakness and strength-on-strength, and about evenly-matched to boot.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee has a terrible turnover % of 20.9 (No. 267), while the Commodores’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 19.9 (No. 138).

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Vanderbilt’s turnover % is 18.8 (No. 130), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20.1 (No. 122).

Conclusions

As I said the last time around, the Vols are always going to be outmatched in this category (from an offensive perspective) until they earn some dramatic improvement. They’ll have an opportunity tomorrow. As far as forcing turnovers, the stage is set for a normal result.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 30 (No. 113). Vanderbilt’s defense in that category is 28.9 (No. 205).

When Vanderbilt has the ball

The Commodores’ OR% is 27.2 (No. 210), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 26.8 (No. 112).

Conclusions

The Vols appear to have a pretty good edge in rebounding. They’ll need it.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate remains 33.8 (No. 133), while Vanderbilt’s defense against that is 35 (No. 241).

When Vanderbilt has the ball

The Commodores’ FT Rate is 40.4 (No. 23), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 27.5 (No. 85).

Conclusions

Tennessee’s not especially good at getting to the line, but the Vols should be able to get there more often than usual tomorrow against the Commodores. On the other side, Vandy’s good at getting there, but Tennessee might be able to limit those opportunities a bit.

Go Vols.

Literal big news:

.@urosp34 has been ruled eligible to compete, effective immediatelyhttps://t.co/1RO7L4kK3b

— Tennessee Basketball (@Vol_Hoops) January 14, 2020

A strange season takes another turn: the Vols started the year with 11 games of Lamonte Turner, and will end it, if healthy, with at least 17 games of Uros Plavsic. Turner’s absence and Tennessee’s 1-4 stretch surrounding it made it difficult for the Washington and VCU wins with Turner to be worth as much on the bubble. But now, if the Vols can get hot while working in Plavsic the same way they’ve done Santiago Vescovi, Tennessee can build a separate argument for what they’ve done with these two additions.

That starts at Georgia tonight, where the Vols will face potential number one overall pick Anthony Edwards. Tennessee saw Shaquille O’Neal at LSU in the early 90’s – shout out to Carlus Groves – then didn’t play a number one pick for the next 15 years. That’s changed drastically since then, thanks in large part to John Calipari:

2016	Ben Simmons	LSU
2015	Karl-Anthony Towns	Kentucky
2012	Anthony Davis	Kentucky
2010	John Wall	Kentucky
2008	Derrick Rose	Memphis
2007	Greg Oden	Ohio State

The Vols beat Ben Simmons in the regular season but lost the rematch in the SEC Tournament. Tennessee also beat John Wall in Knoxville in 2010 and, of course, got the best of Derrick Rose and Memphis in 2008.

The 6’5″ Edwards made a name for himself by scoring 37 points against Michigan State, including 7-of-16 from the arc. He’s taken no more than nine threes in any other game, including the last two when cold spells helped the Dawgs get off to an 0-2 start in league play, thanks in large part to the schedule. Kentucky won in Athens 78-69, and Auburn held serve at home with a dominant 82-60 win. Edwards had 23 points on 17 shots against Kentucky, 18 on 17 against Auburn. He’ll put it up: via KenPom, Edwards is 18th nationally in shot percentage, taking more than a third of Georgia’s shots when he’s on the floor.

Edwards is only a 30.5% three-point shooter; when Kentucky and Auburn chased him off the line, he did go 9-of-14 inside the arc. He gets to the free throw line with 72 attempts on the year (4.8 per game), but only shoots 68.1% once there. Did someone mention a seven foot rim protector with five more fouls to give?

Edwards also shares the ball well, relatively speaking, but when it goes in for Georgia from another player it’s usually Rayshaun Hammonds. The 6’9″ junior plays the five, which means right away we get to talk about Uros giving Tennessee an advantage we haven’t seen all season. After the Vols found great success against Missouri playing Yves Pons at the five, I’ll be curious to see if they carve out some time for that lineup as well.

I don’t think last season’s 96-50 win in Knoxville is much of a talking point here. Georgia finished the season 11-21 (2-16), but is already way better in Tom Crean’s second season, and not solely on the strength of Edwards. They’re tested, having played Dayton and Michigan State well before opening league play with Kentucky and Auburn. And they went to Memphis and won 65-62 on January 4, and not because Edwards had a huge game (4-of-17 shooting). They held Memphis to 38.5% from the floor and took advantage of the Tigers shooting 11-of-20 at the stripe.

Memphis did pinpoint one of their biggest weaknesses: giving up offensive rebounds, where the Dawgs are 276th nationally and undersized like us on Monday. Memphis had 15 offensive rebounds against them; Auburn had 13 and Kentucky a dozen. Georgia also does themselves no favors at the free throw line or in turning the ball over.

Any team with the number one pick is dangerous; the Vols got a spark from Vescovi, and Plavsic has been practicing with the team all season, but we’re not sure exactly what we’re going to get here and that could lead to the kind of weirdness that costs us tonight. If Tennessee is truly going to build a resume on what they do from here, with Vescovi and Plavsic, it’s a nice on-ramp: at Georgia, at Vanderbilt, vs Ole Miss before we go to Kansas. If you want that argument, it needs to start with a win tonight.

Advertising enthusiasts, rejoice: 7:00 PM ET, ESPNU.

Go Vols.

What Tennessee did against South Carolina was a perfect example of where this team is and what it will take going forward. The Vols shot 25.9% from the floor, which would’ve been the worst number in any of the last ten years if not for going 25% from the floor against Memphis. Yet Tennessee had a chance to win that game, and actually got it done this time: they held South Carolina to 32.8% from the floor, 2-of-13 (15.4%) from the arc, and the Vols knocked down 22-of-28 free throws.

Tennessee is 29th nationally in defensive efficiency (via KenPom), and has faced a schedule ranking 34th by opposing defenses. You know what you’re getting into against Kansas, Kentucky, Auburn, and Arkansas going forward, but the rest of Tennessee’s schedule should lighten a bit in this department. For the most part, the Vols can still defend well enough to give themselves a chance.

But this offense is now 114th nationally in efficiency. That’s the lowest number at Tennessee since Kevin O’Neill’s last season in 1997, when the Vols went 11-16 (4-12) and finished 278th in offensive efficiency. The only other year the Vols finished outside the Top 100 was Cuonzo Martin’s first campaign in 2012, when UT finished 106th.

Right now every shot that goes in is a big deal. Tennessee’s 14 made field goals against South Carolina tied Florida State for a season low; the Vols made just 15 shots against Memphis and 16 against Wisconsin. Tennessee continues to get high-percentage scoring from John Fulkerson (21st nationally in effective field goal percentage), but continues to have a tough time getting him quality touches inside.

Meanwhile, the late revelation at Missouri came with Fulkerson off the floor. With six minutes to play and the Vols down three, a lineup with Yves Pons at the five surrounded by Vescovi, Bowden, James, and Jalen Johnson ripped off a 14-3 run over three-and-a-half minutes. Tennessee’s small ball lineup spaced the floor and created a number of great looks for three point shooters.

From the arc, Santiago Vescovi is red hot out the gate at 10-of-18 (55.6%). Josiah James is also doing a nice job at 37.8% on the year. With Jordan Bowden now dipping under 30%, I’m curious to see how the Vols adapt their shot selection. Again, some of this should get better just by virtue of who’s next on the schedue: at Georgia (83rd in defensive efficiency), at Vanderbilt (242nd), and vs Ole Miss (119th) before going to Kansas next Saturday.

Overall, this team currently sits about where you’d expect when compared to their predecessors:

Year	KenPom	Record	Finish
2019	26.24	31-6	Sweet 16
2014	23.69	24-13	Sweet 16
2018	22.27	26-9	Round 2
2008	22.17	31-5	Sweet 16
2006	19.44	22-8	Round 2
2010	18.50	28-9	Elite 8
2007	18.29	24-11	Sweet 16
2009	16.48	21-13	Round 1
2020	13.31	10-5
2002	12.67	15-16
2017	12.62	16-16
2011	12.41	19-15	Round 1
2012	11.38	19-15	NIT
2003	10.99	17-12	NIT
2013	10.47	20-13	NIT
2005	8.89	14-17
2016	7.31	15-19
2004	7.30	15-14	NIT
2015	7.24	16-16

In KenPom, this team is behind all of Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament teams post-Jerry Green except for Bruce Pearl’s final season. Their closest comparison is Buzz Peterson’s first team, which lost seven one-possession or overtime games between December 15 and January 16, then lost Ron Slay to a torn ACL at the end of that stretch. Slay’s absence is probably the best historical comparison to this team losing Lamonte Turner. And that group’s 15-16 (7-9) finish shows the importance of winning close games, which can be the difference between the bubble and not even making the NIT in a season like this.

It’s why any win is a good one now, including a one-point slugfest against South Carolina. KenPom projects the Vols to finish 18-13 (10-8), which would at least send them to the SEC Tournament in the bubble conversation. The league has two ranked teams in Auburn and Kentucky, and then a lot of iffiness. Arkansas lost some of their momentum in a two-point loss at LSU, while the Tigers regained their close game magic in a 3-0 SEC start.

The Vols will keep figuring out, and it’s fun to watch the freshmen get better, not just Vescovi and James who play a lot, but guys like Drew Pember who can find themselves in crucial situations. The difference in this year ending at .500 and landing on the right side of the bubble is likely to be what the Vols do in close games. In SEC play, so far, so good.

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the South Carolina Gamecocks. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season:

Basically even, but Tennessee is shooting better from three.

Summary and Score Prediction

The weatherman isn’t always right, and although Tuesday night’s forecast of ugly shooting percentages never happened, we’re doubling down on that this weekend. The Vols have to correct their turnover issues as they are literally giving games away, but improving that this weekend may be difficult. The game may be won at the foul line.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Whatever they did to shoot well despite playing a good defense at Missouri Tuesday, do that again. If they can get above 50% from two and 45% from three again, awesome. But even their averages of 43% and 33% would be good against a good defensive team.
2. It will be difficult against a defensively active team like South Carolina, but the Vols have to protect the ball better. Aim for 12 or fewer turnovers.
3. Win an apparently even rebounding matchup.
4. Make the most of an advantage at getting to the foul line themselves while playing aggressive defense on the other end without fouling. The goal here is to get to 20 attempts while keeping South Carolina to under 20.

KenPom gives Tennessee an 81% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 71, South Carolina 62.

My prediction: Tennessee 73, South Carolina 67.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Tennessee is a better-shooting team overall. Among prior Vols’ opponents, South Carolina is most like Jacksonville State and Florida A&M in that department. We scored 75 and 72 against those teams.

Turnover %

Conclusion: These guys protect the ball much better than the Vols do. They do it as well as VCU and LSU.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Again, South Carolina is much better at grabbing offensive rebounds than are the Vols. Best comps are Memphis and Florida State.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Tennessee and South Carolina are pretty comparable when it comes to Free Throw Rate.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is 49.3 (No. 178), and it will be going up against a defense that is 45.2 (No. 46).

When South Carolina has the ball

The Gamecocks’ eFG% is 47.5 (No. 241), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 44.5 (No. 31).

Conclusions

Both defenses are equipped to make things difficult for the opposing offenses. We said this about that last game against Missouri, though, and it didn’t seem to bother the Vols, so we’ll see. I’d still expect to see both offenses struggle a bit more than usual.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee has a turnover % of 20.9 (No. 257), while the Gamecocks’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 21.9 (No. 63). They Vols are always going to be outmatched in this category until they earn some dramatic improvement.

When South Carolina has the ball

South Carolina’s turnover % is 19.1 (No. 149), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20 (No. 142).

Conclusions

I’d expect the Vols to be focusing on correcting their turnovers problem, but I wouldn’t expect too much noticeable improvement tomorrow against the Gamecocks.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 30 (No. 114). South Carolina’s defense in that category is 28.1 (No. 163).

When South Carolina has the ball

The Gamecocks’ OR% is 32.6 (No. 61), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 25.4 (No. 73).

Conclusions

This appears to be an evenly-matched game from a rebounding perspective.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 33.8 (No. 133), while South Carolina’s defense against that is 46.6 (No. 344).

When South Carolina has the ball

The Gamecocks’ FT Rate is 34.2 (No. 119), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 26.2 (No. 61).

Conclusions

It appears that the Vols should be able to both get to the foul line more often than usual and keep South Carolina from getting there as often as it usually does.

Go Vols.

Tennessee came into last night’s game against Missouri with one of the SEC’s worst shooting percentages, turning the ball over 13.5 times per game, still breaking in a just-now-Coming-to-America point guard, and navigating the delicate issue of a Jordan Bowden shooting slump. Traveling to Columbia, Missouri to take on a Cuonzo Martin team 5th in the nation in KenPom’s defensive effective field goal percentage seemed like the makings of a bad night for the Vols.

Never mind.

Not only were the Vols unfazed by Missouri’s defense, they improved their averages rather dramatically. Coming into the game sporting season-long shooting percentages of 42.6% from the field and 31.8% from the arc, Tennessee hit 53.5% from the field and 45.8% from three.

Never mind that Bowden slump, either, as he went 5-12 (41.67%) from the field and 2-7 (28.57%) from three. He’s still better than that, but seeing the ball go through the hole for Bowden is a welcome sight.

Meanwhile, the Vols defense held Missouri to 35.2% from the field and 36% from the arc. Only two Missouri players — Mitchell Smith and Tray Jackson — hit double figures. Contrast that to Tennessee, who had six players in double figures on the night.

That flurry of turnovers we forecasted yesterday did in fact happen, but new point guard Santiago Vescovi didn’t have 64% of them this time like he did against LSU. He led the clubhouse with 5, but John Fulkerson also had 5, and Josiah Jordan-James had 4. Several others got into the action as well: Yves Pons had 3, Olivier Nkamhoua had 2, and Bowden and Jalen Johnson each had one.

Vescovi, by the way, not only improved his ball-protection, he basically took over in the second half, going on an 8-0 run by himself with six minutes remaining and the score tied at 53. This guy needs a nickname, stat.

I know that Jeremiah Tilmon didn’t play for Missouri and that that mattered last night. But two games in to the Great Reset of 2019-20, the Vols are miles away from whatever happened in that Wisconsin game. If they can continue to improve at anything close to that rate, there might be some magic in store for this season after all.

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Missouri Tigers. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season:

Summary and Score Prediction

Tonight’s forecast calls for ugly shooting percentages and flurries of turnovers with dangerous accumulation for Tennessee. The best opportunity for the Vols appears to be getting to the foul line as often as possible and hitting the freebies once there.

The goals for the Vols:

1. If you’re not going to shoot well, don’t shoot often.
2. Try to limit turnovers, but don’t get frustrated when they happen. They do that to everybody, but they’ll also allow you to return the favor.
3. Drive into the paint, draw the foul, and hit the free throws.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 37% chance of winning and puts the score at Missouri 62, Tennessee 59. The line is Missouri -4.

My prediction: Missouri 64, Tennessee 57.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Tennessee and Missouri look pretty even here. Missouri’s most like Jacksonville State among the Vols’ prior opponents.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Again, not a lot separates these two teams on turnovers, and Missouri’s most like Jacksonville State.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Missouri’s a good team on the boards and compares best to Murray State.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Missouri’s currently tied with Florida A&M in Free Throw Rate. The Vols are better, but not by a lot.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is 48.3 (No. 216), and it will be going up against a defense that is 41.4 (No. 5). Uh-oh.

When Missouri has the ball

The Tigers’ eFG% is 49.3 (No. 178), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 44.6 (No. 36) and trending in the wrong direction.

Conclusions

As Will noted earlier this morning, Cuonzo Martin’s defense is not what you want to see if you are an offense looking for answers. Brace for ugly.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee has a turnover % of 20 (No. 207), while the Tigers’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 23 (No. 37). Also uh-oh.

When Missouri has the ball

Missouri’s turnover % is 21.5 (No. 284), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20 (No. 143).

Conclusions

As with shooting percentage, the Vols’ turnover problems are likely to be magnified by Cuonzo Martin’s defensive-minded team.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 30.4 (No. 102). Missouri’s defense in that category is 24.8 (No. 53).

When Missouri has the ball

The Tigers’ OR% is 31.3 (No. 80), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 25.2 (No. 68).

Conclusions

Rebounding is more of an even match, although Missouri is still a good rebounding team.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 33.4 (No. 141), while Missouri’s defense against that is 38.2 (No. 291). Finally, some good news.

When Missouri has the ball

The Tigers’ FT Rate is 30.8 (No. 199), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 25.7 (No. 55).

Conclusions

If there’s an opportunity to be had for the Vols in this matchup, it appears to be in getting to the free-throw line. They don’t actually get there often, but Missouri both likes to foul and has trouble getting to the line themselves.

Summary and Score Prediction

Tonight’s forecast calls for ugly shooting percentages and flurries of turnovers with dangerous accumulation for Tennessee. The best opportunity for the Vols appears to be getting to the foul line as often as possible and hitting the freebies once there.

The goals for the Vols:

1. If you’re not going to shoot well, don’t shoot often.
2. Try to limit turnovers, but don’t get frustrated when they happen. They do that to everybody, but they’ll also allow you to return the favor.
3. Drive into the paint, draw the foul, and hit the free throws.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 37% chance of winning and puts the score at Missouri 62, Tennessee 59. The line is Missouri -4.

My prediction: Missouri 64, Tennessee 57.

Go Vols.

The Vols have lost four of five, but Santiago Vescovi injected new interest into this season. In his second act, what changes more: six threes or nine turnovers?

Even without Lamonte Turner, Tennessee’s offense goes almost exclusively through good ball movement. Against Wisconsin Tennessee made just 16 shots, the fourth time this season the Vols made less than 20 field goals. But they still managed 12 assists. The ball went in much more often against LSU, but many of those threes still came off good ball movement, including penetration from Vescovi: 24 made shots with 18 assists.

Lamonte’s assist rate would still rank sixth nationally, but Tennessee still has it in its DNA: the Vols are fourth nationally in assist rate as a team, assisting on two-thirds of their made shots. But there’s a general problem here – does Tennessee have anybody who can create their own shot? – as well as a specific one the last two games. Against Wisconsin, the Vols got to the line 19 times but only made 10 free throws. Against LSU, the Vols shot just five free throws.

Vescovi will get better at finishing in the lane and not turning the ball over. He’s not going to hit six threes every night, nor am I sure Barnes wants him to take nine a game. But he’s also not going to go 0-for-4 from inside the arc with nine turnovers. We watch Vescovi with excitement for next season, a dedicated point guard hopefully expanding the potential of Tennessee’s elite incoming talent. But I’m still interested to see how if/how he can transform this year’s team: can he successfully create his own shot? Will he adjust his game in the lane fast enough to score at the rim?

Everything is very much in flux with this team, including:

https://twitter.com/Troy_Provost/status/1213544908570513408

Bowden’s minutes are 33.5 per game. Vescovi, fresh off the plane, played 32 minutes against LSU. There’s a lot more figuring out in front of this team than behind it, which will be frustrating with moments of enlightenment along the way.

The bad news: I’m not sure Cuonzo is who you want to be figuring your offense out against.

If those 16 made shots against Wisconsin felt low, they were: the Vols made just 15 shots in the infamous Virginia and Georgetown games in Cuonzo’s second season when the Vols, learning to play without Jeronne Maymon, ran into good defensive teams. You’ll find Maymon on Mizzou’s sideline these days, and the same defensive philosophy very much intact: the Tigers are fifth nationally in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Missouri is battle-tested, with losses to Xavier, Butler, Oklahoma, and a 71-59 defeat at Rupp in the SEC opener. They also beat rival Illinois on a neutral floor. Teams shoot just 25.9% against them from the arc, so yeah, it’s a great time to figure out how Vescovi can help Tennessee elsewhere. Much to Cuonzo’s chagrin, I’m sure, the Tigers are 338th nationally in non-steal turnover percentage on offense (via KenPom), meaning they love to give the ball away unnecessarily.

This may not be the match-up you want if you’re looking for Tennessee’s best chance to break this losing streak. But if you want the blessings and curses of Tennessee trying to figure themselves out against a team that will force them to do things differently…well, that’s probably what we’re going to get. Watch the lineups, watch Vescovi, and see if the Vols can get to the line and convert inside the arc.

7:00 PM ET, SEC Network. Let’s see what we learn this time.

Go Vols.

From Jacksonville to Thompson-Boling, Tennessee tips off SEC play at high noon. It’s what looked like an incredibly appealing opener to conference play: Will Wade and LSU return to Knoxville after perhaps last season’s angriest loss. The Vols led for much of regulation in Baton Rouge, but LSU – on the strength of 31 free throw attempts to just 16 for the Vols – got it to overtime, then won on another foul call with 0.6 seconds left. That victory helped the Tigers get to 16-2 in league play, one game better than Tennessee, and steal the SEC title.

It looked like Wade wouldn’t be around for the return match, and then it looked like he was a prime candidate to become one of our favorite villains. But Tennessee now has its own problems, losers of three of four to Memphis, Cincinnati, and Wisconsin, the latter a 20-point blowout in the first game without Lamonte Turner.

The big picture for the SEC: the traffic jam in this league is backed up further than anyone wanted. Auburn is undefeated and ranked eighth, still yet to face anyone better than NC State (KenPom #35). Kentucky went 2-1 against Michigan State, Ohio State, and Louisville, but also lost to Evansville and Utah. Arkansas has been a nice surprise in Eric Musselman’s first season, 11-1 with an overtime loss to Western Kentucky. They just got their best win over Indiana (#37 KenPom).

Everyone else has experienced some level of disappointment:

• Florida: 8-4 with losses to Florida State, UConn, Butler, and Utah State
• LSU: 8-4 with losses to VCU, Utah State, ETSU, and USC
• Tennessee: 8-4 with losses to Florida State, Memphis, Cincinnati, and Wisconsin
• Mississippi State: 9-3 with losses to Villanova, Louisiana Tech, and New Mexico State

As such, the league has no teams in the KenPom Top 10, with Auburn (13), Kentucky (15), Florida (26), and Arkansas (31) leading the way at the moment. That next tier looks like the bubble: LSU (41), Tennessee (43), Mississippi State (48), and Missouri (53).

In the January 1 Bracket Matrix, Auburn is a three seed, Kentucky a six, Arkansas an eight. Then Tennessee and Florida are in Dayton, with LSU among the next four out.

It’s a tough look for a league that sent eight teams to the NCAA Tournament in 2018 and seven last year. Auburn and Arkansas are untested on an elite level, Kentucky has elite wins and bad losses, and the rest of the league’s tournament hopefuls have more losses than wins in major non-conference games.

It could also create the kind of gridlock that hurts everyone more than it helps them. KenPom’s SEC projections have eight teams finishing between 12-6 and 10-8 in conference play. It should make for a really exciting season, but for teams looking to move up that bracket you might need more separation than that.

Tennessee will have Sergio Vescovi available today. The Vol offense has plummeted to 90th in KenPom, 294th in three point shooting just under 30%. The first thing Vescovi can do is simply help Tennessee get better looks; the Wisconsin game got depressing in a hurry (a weird environment for a sold-out crowd) because the Badger defense did a great job making the Vols even less comfortable without Lamonte.

The highest-percentage scorers on this team are…John Fulkerson and Yves Pons. Pons is in the Top 200 nationally in effective field goal percentage, but got just four shots off against Wisconsin. And when Barnes says they want Fulkerson to shoot more, he’s not kidding: Fulky is 14th nationally in effective field goal percentage, and one of the few offensive bright spots in these last four games.

Tennessee’s SEC schedule is ridiculously back-loaded, but these first three games may be no friend to a team trying to figure out how to play without their point guard. LSU goes through their guards in a way few Tennessee opponents this season have. Javonte Smart and Skylar Mays will be a challenge. Tennessee is accustomed to playing defense-first teams: Memphis, Wisconsin, and Florida State are all Top 20 defenses in KenPom, while VCU, Cincinnati, and Washington all lean on defense more than offense. All of those teams also run a significant portion of their offense through their size.

So even though LSU is the first real threat this season to lean on its offense, because so much of that runs through their guard play while Tennessee is trying to figure out theirs, I’m not exactly sure that’s a good thing. For this game and beyond, Tennessee absolutely has to lean on its defense and play like its tournament fate depends on it, because it probably does.

After this one, the Vols go to Missouri on Tuesday night, then get South Carolina in Knoxville next Saturday. If I’m trying to break in a brand new point guard and learn how to play without the old one, catching LSU’s guards, Cuonzo Martin, and Frank Martin isn’t the ideal start.

But it’s the one we have, and the Vols should have another great crowd on hand today. Get better shots, get Vescovi worked in, and let’s see how far defense can take us. The ingredients for a feisty match-up with Will Wade’s team will still be there if the Vols respond better out of the gate.

High noon, ESPNU. Not sure the commercials are as good when you’re not working the night shift on ESPNU, but the Vols are going to have to win their way back to better networks.

Go Vols.

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Wisconsin Badgers. The conclusions are up front, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season:

Summary and Score Prediction

All bets are off with Tennessee scrambling to replace point guard Lamonte Turner, and it will take some time for the numbers to catch up with his absence. That said, these two teams appear to be evenly matched in most of the four factors, although the Vols defense may have more of an impact on Wisconsin than Wisconsin’s will have on Tennessee. Offensive rebounds and free-throw attempts will be at a premium.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Figure out life without Lamonte Turner.
2. Make the most of an apparent defensive advantage, forcing Wisconsin into a subpar shooting percentage.
3. Capitalize on offensive rebounds and free throw attempts when they’re available.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 70% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 62, Wisconsin 57.

My prediction: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: A pretty good shooting team, Wisconsin is most similar to Memphis in this regard and better than Tennessee.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Wisconsin protects the ball better than any other team the Vols have played so far this season. The most-similar prior Vols opponent is UNC Asheville.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Tennessee is a better rebounding team than Wisconsin, who is most similar to VCU and Chattanooga among prior Vols opponents.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: The Vols also have an edge at getting to the free-throw line, although it’s not by much. The Badgers are most similar to Florida A&M in this category.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is 48.5 (No. 199), and it will be going up against a defense that is 48.8 (No. 165).

When Wisconsin has the ball

The Badgers’ eFG% is 51.3 (No. 103), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 42.7 (No. 13).

Conclusions

Tennessee’s offense and Wisconsin’s defense are pretty evenly matched, but the Vols’ defense has an advantage over the Badgers’ offense.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee has a turnover % of 19.3 (No. 159), while the Badgers’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 18.2 (No. 247).

When Wisconsin has the ball

Wisconsin’s turnover % is 17.2 (No. 48), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 21.2 (No. 100).

Conclusions

With the loss of Turner for the season, it’s a good thing that they’re not playing a team that is especially adept at forcing turnovers. Wisconsin generally protects the ball pretty well, but the Vols might be able to affect their ability to do so in this game.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 30.1 (No. 115). Wisconsin’s defense in that category is 24 (No. 38).

When Wisconsin has the ball

The Badgers’ OR% is 27.4 (No. 190), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 25.1 (No. 68).

Conclusions

Neither team is exactly bad at getting offensive rebounds, but they’ll both be going up against teams that are better at grabbing them for the defense. Basically, it looks like offensive rebounds are going to be at a premium.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 35.3 (No. 110), while Wisconsin’s defense against that is 25.5 (No. 61).

When Wisconsin has the ball

The Badgers’ FT Rate is 33.1 (No. 153), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 26.8 (No. 81).

Conclusions

As with offensive rebounds, both teams are decent at getting to the foul line but will be going up against defenses that are adept at keeping opponents from doing so.

Summary and Score Prediction

All bets are off with Tennessee scrambling to replace point guard Lamonte Turner, and it will take some time for the numbers to catch up with his absence. That said, these two teams appear to be evenly matched, although the Vols defense may have more of an impact on Wisconsin than Wisconsin’s will have on Tennessee. Offensive rebounds and free throw attempts will be at a premium.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Figure out life without Lamonte Turner.
2. Make the most of an apparent defensive advantage, forcing Wisconsin into a subpar shooting percentage.
3. Capitalize on offensive rebounds and free throw attempts when they’re available.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 70% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 62, Wisconsin 57.

My prediction: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Go Vols.

It’s one thing to hit four game-winners (or send-it-to-overtimers) in your career. Lamonte Turner hit the biggest shot in three of Tennessee’s biggest wins the last two years, plus a fourth last month that could prove incredibly helpful as this team now scrambles for the bracket:

Thank you, Lamonte. @LTurn1 pic.twitter.com/nhlgUJxZvj

— Vol Network (@VolNetwork) December 22, 2019

The Purdue win in the Bahamas started all of this. The win at Rupp was 2018’s biggest. And the win over Kentucky in the 2019 SEC Tournament doesn’t earn any banners like an SEC title or the Sweet 16, but was a crowning achievement for this program and its last two teams.

This team is 8-3 and not 7-4 in part because Lamonte splashed that three against VCU, giving Tennessee a pair of Top 50 wins in KenPom. We will need them.

Turner’s Tennessee career is over, shut down with upcoming shoulder surgery that will hopefully enable his basketball career to continue on a professional level. The timing is jarring, but the news not all that surprising; we’ve watched Lamonte struggle with his shoulder for multiple seasons. To his credit, as we pointed out after the Cincinnati loss, each time he got better as the year went along: one of the best three-point shooters in the SEC in 2018, one of the best two-point shooters in the SEC in 2019. But I’m sure at a certain point there’s no getting better without shutting it all down.

It’s funny how quickly things can change: gone, just like that, are five of the six faces that made the last two years so very memorable. Thanks in large part to the performances of those teams, new faces we hope will be equally memorable are on the way next season.

In the middle is the rest of this season: one senior in Jordan Bowden, and only eight scholarship players left on the roster. Let’s push pause on point guard Santiago Vescovi, who will be eligible to play after the fall semester (similar to Jarnell Stokes as a freshman). Barnes originally said there was little chance he played this season; those chances hit a growth spurt over the weekend.

But even if you don’t include Vescovi in this group, next season you’ll have Keon Johnson, Jaden Springer, Corey Walker, Uros Plavsic, and Oregon transfer Victor Bailey. Those five plus Vescovi and Josiah James will make for a core group of seven players that weren’t around in 2019. Fulkerson and Pons will be seniors; that’s nine.

I point that out to say this: the guys Tennessee will have to rely on right now – Olivier Nkamhoua, Davonte Gaines, Drew Pember, Jalen Johnson – have an opportunity to carve out a bigger role for themselves this season, before the body count ups the competition for everyone next season. There will be a separate conversation about finding the right mix with so many new faces next season. For now, these eight players – Bowden, James, Fulkerson, Pons, Nkamhoua, Gaines, Pember, and Johnson (plus Vescovi, maybe) – have the rest of the 2020 season in front of them.

Tennessee is a six seed in the December 20 Bracket Matrix, appearing in 16 of 18 brackets that have been updated since the Cincinnati loss at anywhere from a five to an eleven seed. The Vols host Wisconsin (#51 KenPom) on Saturday and travel to Kansas on January 25 in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. Everything else is the SEC.

Cincinnati wasn’t a great loss, but the Vols made it through the non-conference without any truly bad losses. And there are really only two options for such a thing in the SEC: first-year coaches at Texas A&M, who the Vols face in Knoxville, and Vanderbilt, who the Vols play twice. Those two teams currently hover around 140th in KenPom. The league doesn’t appear to have an elite team; we’ll see about Auburn, who’s 11-0 but hasn’t played anyone better than NC State (36th in KenPom). The Tigers have run through the Bruce Pearl special of really good mid-majors, beating Davidson, Colgate, New Mexico, Richmond, Furman, and Saint Louis.

Still, while there are no SEC teams in the KenPom Top 10, the league’s top tier places four teams in the Top 30 plus Arkansas at 37. Everyone other than A&M and Vanderbilt is in the Top 90.

We’ll preview the conference more fully after Wisconsin, but I say all that to say this: Tennessee just needs wins. The Vols beat Washington and VCU and avoided catastrophe. A 12-8 finish gets Tennessee to 20-11 on the year. The schedule and the league should be good enough that I don’t think we’ll end up arguing about which wins they did or didn’t get if it comes down to the bubble (though keep in mind, Tennessee’s SEC schedule is insanely back-loaded; some of this conversation will just have to wait until mid-February).

And right now, just making the tournament is a good goal for this team. We would’ve been talking about a rebuilding year from the beginning if Lamonte wasn’t going to be around. Now, it’s rebuilding on the fly. How might it look without #1 out there?

The first question is simple math. In every game that’s been in doubt in the second half this season (other than Cincinnati when he picked up two fouls early), Lamonte has played between 36-40 minutes. Against the Bearcats, Davonte Gaines was the beneficiary in the first half: 17 minutes and four points, all at the stripe. Jalen Johnson has more experience and might get the start against the Badgers, but the coaching staff appears to trust Gaines more already.

Tennessee averages right at 16 assists per game, and is eighth nationally in assist percentage. Lamonte was responsible for more than seven assists per game. So now, who facilitates the offense?

Again, put a pin in Vescovi. Your other options for primary ball-handler are Jordan Bowden and Josiah James. Many of us assumed coming into the year that James would get backup point guard minutes, but in big games Lamonte just basically played the whole time. That’s one question with Josiah: is he the point guard next year? If that’s the idea, he’s about to get a lot of practice. The alternative is Bowden, who went from being the third scoring option on the floor to the first. His three-point percentage is still solid (37.3%), but his effective field goal percentage is down from last year because his looks have been much more difficult. What changes with his game if you put the ball in his hands much more often? Can one or both of these guys still run Tennessee’s offense in a way that creates non-difficult opportunities for Fulkerson and Pons?

Even before Lamonte got hurt, the Memphis and Cincinnati games showed, in good and bad ways, how much this team needs its defense. Lamonte was Tennessee’s best perimeter defender in terms of forcing turnovers both this year and last year. This is probably the biggest question for Davonte Gaines, Jalen Johnson, and anyone else getting ready to play more minutes: where are you on this end of the floor?

More on Wisconsin after Christmas, but the Badgers do play at Tennessee’s pace and rely on 6’11” center Nate Reuvers for a lot of what they do. We’ll learn more about what the Vols can do without Turner against strong guard play when LSU comes to town the following Saturday.

Turner’s absence is heartbreaking, but he leaves with incredible memories behind and hopefully a professional basketball future ahead. Tennessee as a team has the same memories in the past and a bright hope for the future. In the now, this team will try to make the tournament while answering big questions for the future. It’s an interesting moment for Josiah James, and a big opportunity for Davonte Gaines, Jalen Johnson, and everyone else with a chance to make a name for themselves a little earlier than they thought.