Category Archives: Basketball

In basically six full games without Zakai Zeigler, the Vols still rate among the nation’s best teams. Bart Torvik has Tennessee ranked 13th since February 28; down from their full-season rank of fifth, but still plenty good enough to win. You’ll note that Duke is/was the fourth-best team in the nation in these last three weeks.

There are some things Tennessee clearly misses. Zeigler is still 35th nationally in steal rate; the Vols have five steals or less against in half of our games without him now. Our two lowest turnover-producing games of the season are Ole Miss (five) and Auburn (six). It felt like Duke had a ton, but they (and Louisiana) finished with just 14, an average number for the Vol defense over the entire season.

Meanwhile, Tennessee’s three-point shooting is up, from 32.4% to 36.3% in the last six games. It’s not a huge jump, but it’s a nice one. In addition to the Olivier Nkamhoua boost against Duke, some of this may be a higher percentage of attempts going to Santiago Vescovi. He averages 7.4 threes per game on the year, but 8.6 per game in the last six (minus Louisiana, where he sat with foul trouble). Vescovi is Tennessee’s best shooter at 37.1% from the arc.

And there are a couple of ways Tennessee is simply different without a 5’9″ player on the floor. Our offensive rebounding has been a key all season, with the Vols 15-1 when grabbing 39+% of their misses. Rick Barnes shared after the Louisiana game that Tennessee has actually been crashing the offensive glass less without Zeigler, because they trusted him so much to play transition defense but are now dropping two guys back. And the numbers follow suit:

Offensive Rebounding Percentage, Last Six Games

• Season Average: 36.4%
• Arkansas: 32.1%
• Auburn: 27.6%
• Ole Miss: 36.4%
• Missouri: 29%
• Louisiana: 22.7%
• Duke: 31.3%

Remove the Rebels, and all of Tennessee’s other opponents without Zeigler are NCAA Tournament teams. Against those five, the Vols have failed to grab a third of their offensive rebounds each time.

But on the defensive glass? Tennessee is attacking.

Our season average in defensive rebounding percentage is 73.4%, 91st nationally.

Defensive Rebounding Percentage, Last Six Games

• Season Average: 73.4%
• Arkansas: 80%
• Auburn: 75.9%
• Ole Miss: 87.5%
• Missouri: 88%
• Louisiana: 78.6%
• Duke: 87%

Duke was/is the 10th best offensive rebounding team in the nation, averaging 35.9% per game. Against Tennessee, they got a season-low 13%. Virginia (15.4%) is the only other team to hold them below 20% this season.

Basically, the Vols are playing Santiago Vescovi until he drops, and he doesn’t drop. And then we’re rotating eight other dudes who are all physical (not that Vescovi isn’t!) and are all attacking the glass defensively. Vescovi played 38 minutes against Duke; everyone else played less than 30 but more than 10. It’s a bunch of fresh bodies coming at you all the time, and all of them are big and/or long, and all of them rebound with a passion.

This, of course, brings us to the officiating component.

The most reliable predictor of Tennessee’s success remains defense: the Vols are now 22-0 when holding opponents under 60, and 3-10 when they don’t. But one of the surest ways Tennessee holds opponents under 60 with such a great defense is to keep them off the free throw line. Those numbers one more time:

• 23-3 when committing less than 20 fouls
• 19-3 when opponents attempt less than 20 free throws
• 21-3 when opponents make less than 15 free throws
• Every one of these losses is Missouri (x2) or Vanderbilt, the only teams to hit 10+ threes on UT

Arkansas and Auburn both crossed the free throw thresholds in the first two games without Zeigler. Since then, though:

• Ole Miss: 8-of-12 on 10 UT fouls
• Missouri: 9-of-13 on 16 UT fouls
• Louisiana: 5-of-9 on 14 UT fouls
• Duke: 4-of-7 on 11 UT fouls

All four of those opponents were also whistled for less than 20 fouls themselves. Tennessee’s offense had the lowest free throw rate in the SEC this season; it’s not that the Vols are getting all the calls and these poor opponents aren’t.

Meeting the media today, I thought FAU’s coach Dusty May gave two enlightening responses:

FAU HC Dusty May was asked about his "Australian Rugby" reference to @Vol_Hoops

Said he feels bad. He mixed rugby and Australian Rules Football. Most physical sport without pads.

He hadn't seen the Duke game just heard about the narrative on Twitter.

Meant it as a compliment. pic.twitter.com/osidYFqCLD

— 99.1 THE Sports Animal (@SportsAnimal991) March 22, 2023

"How well they keep the ball out of the paint (defensively.) They play with such intensity and physicality. They play every play like it's their last possession."

FAU head coach Dusty May on @Vol_Hoops #MarchMadness #NewYork pic.twitter.com/VyXkFSKwLQ

— 99.1 THE Sports Animal (@SportsAnimal991) March 22, 2023

Which is to say:

• “I don’t really know what happened, I just read about it on Twitter,” is both refreshingly honest and depressing.
• “They play every possession like it’s their last,” is a truly great compliment.

The Vols are going to hit the boards without Zeigler. But they’ve been this kind of elite defense all season. And if they can once again do so without fouling, you’re going to need a bunch of threes to beat it.

Go Vols.

These are the days you enjoy the most, because later this week it’s gonna get stressful again.

That’s the beauty of the beast, especially in a world where 16 seeds can win and 15 seeds are in the Sweet 16 again. The tournament only allows enough time to celebrate the second win of a weekend, which is amazing for us right now. If the Vols win on Thursday night, you’ve got 48 hours to get ready for the biggest game of our lives. And if/when the Vols lose, it’s over.

That’s the season, and not the memories, of course. The Duke win gets to live forever, and it feels mighty fine on this Monday morning. But the bracket has broken differently than our previous trip to the Elite Eight. In 2010, the biggest fish was in the Sweet 16, two-seed Ohio State. This time around, the Vols are the bigger fish, having just pulled Duke out of the water. The cumulative challenge would ultimately be the same to reach the Elite Eight:

• 2010: 11 San Diego State + 14 Ohio + 2 Ohio State = 27
• 2023: 13 Louisiana + 5 Duke + 9 Florida Atlantic = 27

But this time, the Vols are the higher seed. In our seventh Sweet 16 since 2000, the Vols are the higher seed for the fourth time. Two of those other occasions were the 2/3 match-up, the same virtual toss-up as the 4/5 game we just played.

The closest comparison here is that first one in 2000, and very much so. Tennessee as a four seed beat Louisiana-Lafayette in the first round by five points. Next came UConn in the 4/5 game, a national power and the defending champions. And Tennessee’s defense smothered Khalid El-Amin, as the Vols took a 10-point lead at halftime and never looked back. Tennessee won 65-51, a single point off of Saturday’s performance against Duke. Those Vols saw Tony Harris, Vincent Yarbrough, and C.J. Black all score in double figures, plus eight off the bench from freshman Ron Slay. After that Ohio State Sweet 16 win in 2010, Tennessee’s next-best NCAA Tournament win is either that UConn game, or Saturday against Duke.

And that bracket also broke wide open, with eight seed North Carolina taking down Stanford in round two. The six and sevens also won, with Miami and a Tulsa squad coached by a young Bill Self joining the Vols and Tar Heels in the regional semifinals. Though a four seed, Tennessee was the highest seeded team left standing after the first two rounds in the Southeast region.

The biggest difference, of course, is that was our first Sweet 16 of the 64-team format. And it’s a cautionary tale, even 23 years later: breaking new ground almost always guarantees a percentage of house money from that point on. That’s still how I feel about the loss to Michigan State in the Elite Eight in 2010.

But in 2000, Tennessee led North Carolina by seven with 4:30 to play. And it’s those losses that end up hurting most; UNC closed the game on a 17-5 run, and just like that it was over.

So yes: we can absolutely still get hurt in this thing. That’s because we’re still playing.

We’ll get to Florida Atlantic later this week. But for now, consider the value of still playing.

Only 17 programs have made multiple Sweet 16s in the last four NCAA Tournaments. And only five have made more than two.

Sweet 16 Appearances, 2019-2023

• 4: Gonzaga, Houston
• 3: Arkansas, Michigan, UCLA
• 2: Alabama, Creighton, Duke, Florida State, Miami, Michigan State, North Carolina, Oregon, Purdue, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Villanova

When you really get things rolling, it can feel like “make the Sweet 16 every year” is a reasonable goal. But that’s typically only Gonzaga territory: the Bulldogs have now made an insane eight Sweet 16s in a row. That’s one off the record of nine, held by both Duke and Carolina. And it’s helpful to be a one seed, which Gonzaga earned four times in these last eight tournaments.

Houston, meanwhile, hadn’t made the Sweet 16 since their Final Four appearance in 1984 before this current run started in 2019. They’ve had a more difficult path coming in, with seeds of three, two, five, and now one in these last four tournaments. They also took advantage of brackets breaking open in 2019 (beating #14 and #11) and 2021 (beating four double-digit seeds to make the Final Four).

But even after those two, the Vols find themselves in very good company here. When Rick Barnes became one of the highest-paid coaches in college basketball after the 2019 season, we looked at what reasonable expectations might be at that salary. Programs in that range make the NCAA Tournament 90% of the time, make the Sweet 16 slightly more often than not, and carry the expectation of an eventual breakthrough to the Final Four. So far, Tennessee is checking those boxes, and has a great opportunity to break new ground this weekend.

It will not be easy. Nothing for this team has been, and it’s much the same for most of college basketball this season.

But the Vols are thriving in the hard. And that’s good news as the stakes continue to rise.

Go Vols.

Yes sir.

We’re no stranger to big wins these days; this team has three over one and two seeds this year alone. Rick Barnes and company have erased the ghosts of Rupp Arena, beat great Kentucky teams in Knoxville and Nashville, and took down top-ranked foes multiple times. In our most recent meetings, the Vols beat North Carolina by 17 and Kansas by 14.

Add Duke by 13 to the list. And give Barnes’ Vols a signature March moment, one of the greatest NCAA Tournament wins in school history.

In our first meeting with Duke since 2011 and only the second since 1980, we knew the post would be big. Uros Plavsic was tagged with two fouls almost immediately, and Olivier Nkahmoua exited early with four points as well. Duke pulled ahead 19-13 with eight minutes to play in the first half.

They scored two points the rest of the half.

Meanwhile, the Vols went to Durham, North Carolina’s Jonas Aidoooooooo:

https://twitter.com/MarchMadnessMBB/status/1637172274565627904

In that same eight minute stretch, Aidoo had six points. On the day, he added five rebounds and three blocks. A sensational finish put the Vols up six at the break.

Speaking of Finnish…

TENNESSEE WITH A SMOOTH AND-1 #MarchMadness @Vol_Hoops pic.twitter.com/DnZwejKUNu

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 18, 2023

https://twitter.com/MarchMadnessMBB/status/1637192146494136322

https://twitter.com/MarchMadnessMBB/status/1637194061785231362

https://twitter.com/MarchMadnessMBB/status/1637194763018305536

What’s the best individual performance you’ve ever seen from a Tennessee player in the NCAA Tournament?

The answers in these moments can surprise you. Perhaps it’s the nature of high-level basketball, a counter on a counter on a counter when you’re several moves deep on the chessboard. Grant Williams had the defining performance in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals last season. Sometimes it’s those dudes.

At Tennessee? Melvin Goins came off the bench with 15 points on 4-of-5 threes, including a late dagger, against San Diego State in 2010. Jarnell Stokes put a 26-14 on UMass in the first round in 2014. It doesn’t sound as strange now, but Josh Richardson having 26 against Mercer in the next game was a beautiful surprise.

To me, the answer is Wayne Chism against Ohio State in the Sweet 16 in 2010, with 22 points and 11 rebounds in the program’s first and only win in that round. It is Tennessee’s best tournament win – and maybe thus its best win period – until the program advances further.

Thanks to Nkamhoua and these Vols, opportunity knocks.

Today’s win might not have been as big, simply by virtue of the round. But the individual performance? Twenty-seven points on 10-of-13 shooting, three threes, and five rebounds? Nkamhoua probably isn’t used to being undersized, but Barnes has had great success attacking uber-tall teams from Gonzaga, Kentucky, and today Duke with “undersized” fours. And no attack was ever better.

Or more consistent, and not just Nkamhoua:

• Duke cut the lead to 33-31 with 15:42 to play. Nkamhoua completed a three-point play to put the Vols back up five.
• Santiago Vescovi hit back-to-back threes around the 12:00 mark to keep the Vols ahead by three possessions.
• Kyle Filipowski cut it to 46-42 with 9:16 to go. Next two possessions: Nkamhoua jumper, Nkamhoua three.
• Tyrese Proctor cut it to 51-46 with 7:08 to go. Next two possessions: Nkamhoua jumper, Nkamhoua dunk.

And then, a defining image at the last:

https://twitter.com/MarchMadnessMBB/status/1637197604063772672

It is Tennessee’s best tournament win in at least 13 years, and maybe its second-best ever. The next one would send Tennessee to the Elite Eight for the second time, the furthest we’ve ever been. We’ll have plenty of time to get to Florida Atlantic or Fairleigh Dickenson.

But today, the Vols trailed 19-13 with eight minutes to play in the first half, then outscored the Duke Blue Devils 52-33 the rest of the way home.

What a day. What a win. Much to be thankful for. Much to come.

Go Vols.

So maybe Tennessee and Duke will meet right away next year in the inaugural SEC/ACC Challenge. As your profile rises, more teams are willing to say yes. Consider this: the Vols and Kansas never met before 2009. And now we’ve seen the Jayhawks seven times in the last 15 seasons, and four of the last five. Tennessee and North Carolina, separated by a little more than five beautiful hours in the car, didn’t play for 50 years between 1949-1999. And now we’ve seen the Tar Heels six times in the 2000s, including three under Rick Barnes.

Duke, of course, is right down the road. And since 1980 – that’s basically my lifetime and probably many of yours – we’ve played once, in Maui, in Cuonzo Martin’s first season.

And now, tomorrow.

We got to tomorrow through the haze of last night, a series of not-ideal events that still led to the one and only outcome that matters in this thing. Without Zakai Zeigler, we knew Santiago Vescovi would carry the heaviest load, and that he was the least foul-prone player on the floor. About that: he picked up two fouls in less than eight minutes, sitting the last 12:30 of the first half. Tennessee still extended their lead during that stretch, but Louisiana stayed on top of Vescovi in the second half.

Vescovi ended up playing just 27 minutes, the fewest he’s seen in a game the Vols didn’t win by 25+ since February 12 of last season. Three points is the fewest he’s scored since January 29 of last season.

But Tennessee hit their most important benchmarks on the defensive side of the ball, which remains far and away the most important piece of their puzzle. The Vols moved to 21-0 when holding their opponent under 60 points, and did it without fouling: just 14 whistles, just 5-of-9 at the line for the Rajun Cajuns. When Tennessee defends without fouling, so far this year you have to hit 10 threes to beat them.

Tennessee’s best offensive benchmark is getting second chances. But Louisiana did their part there, limiting the Vols to just six offensive rebounds, 23% of our misses. On that, Zakai Zeigler’s absence is being felt after all – here’s Barnes in the postgame:

But the last couple games without Zakai, we didn’t have very good floor balance because these guys are used to going to the glass, all of them, with the exception of Zakai. So tonight to make sure we didn’t give any run outs, we said we’re going to send two back just to make sure we had that covered.

Tennessee saw an 18-point lead diminished to three, but never gave Louisiana the ball with a chance to tie or take the lead. The Vols got big buckets from Jonas Aidoo and Jahmai Mashack to stop the bleeding at the under eight, then made just enough free throws to stay in front late.

As a result, the Vols are through to the second round. And it’s Duke next.

The Blue Devils may not have Coach K, but they do have ten wins in a row. And they have plenty of size to try to keep the Vols off the offensive glass, should they so desire.

But Tennessee against marquee opponents this season? The Vols scored three wins against one and two seeds, beating Alabama by nine, Texas by 11, and Kansas by 14.

Think about it this way: Tennessee’s best NCAA Tournament win of all-time is the Sweet 16 classic with Ohio State in 2010, taking down a two seed en route to the program’s first and only Elite Eight.

What’s our second best win in the tournament?

I’d go with UConn in the 2000 second round, another 4/5 game that saw the Vols dethrone the defending champs and make their first Sweet 16 of the 64-team tournament. But if you’re too young for that one, what’s next? After the Buckeyes, four seed Virginia is the highest-seeded team the Vols have ever beaten in March, back in another 4/5 game in 2007.

The seed and the opponent make a few things really clear: the Vols will need to play well.

And if they do, they’ll have a chance to earn one of our most meaningful NCAA Tournament wins in school history.

You might feel all kinds of different ways about KenPom; part of the beauty of the formula, of course, is that it doesn’t care about your feelings. If you’ve spent any time on this site or Rocky Top Talk over the years, you know we use it regularly. And you know we love feelings, like the ones we felt when the Vols ascended KenPom’s throne for a few days earlier this season.

I don’t believe we hang banners for “Reached #1 in KenPom” – I’m not entirely sure, we’ve never done it before – but it’s worth pointing out both for celebrating what is available to celebrate, and looking forward to the bracket. It’s true this is a college basketball season more for the people than the elites: even now, the Vols are still fifth overall in KenPom. The 2019 squad, the program’s best at season’s end by that metric, would be third overall this year. They finished tenth in 2019.

But this bracket’s chaos is equal opportunity: the field doesn’t start getting weaker after the first couple of teams, it’s open from the get-go. Houston, number one in KenPom, would be sixth in that same 2019 season.

So yes, there’s great opportunity for madness. But you’d still rather have the best available team, right?

In that spirit: Tennessee is the highest-rated team in KenPom in the East region.

It’s tempting to dismiss UT’s rating and/or the Vols overall because of the Zakai Zeigler injury. But keep in mind, a significant percentage of UT’s rating was earned without Josiah-Jordan James and/or Julian Phillips. We only saw Tennessee’s full-strength best basketball against Texas; the wins over Kansas and Alabama, along with tournament teams from Maryland, Mississippi State, and Arkansas came short-handed.

Though the Vols have been a two seed three times in the past, this is the first time in KenPom’s 22-year history that Tennessee represents the “best” team in its region.

And it’s only the second time in UT’s 12 tournament appearances of the KenPom era that the Vols are “underseeded” by this metric.

As advanced stats have grown in popularity, they’ve more closely mirrored the actual bracket. In each of Rick Barnes’ previous tournament appearances at UT, Tennessee’s seed and their KenPom rank in that region were identical. Hop in the time machine back to the Bruce Pearl era, and you’ll find that five of his six teams were actually “overseeded” in KenPom. Pearl was such a pro at scheduling to the old RPI format, giving those teams the well-earned resume to move them up the bracket on Selection Sunday. But even what we’d consider the best full-season version of his teams in 2008 – a two seed with the resume of a one, we argued – was only the fourth-best team in that region by KenPom’s pre-tournament numbers.

Only once before has a Tennessee team entered the tournament underseeded via KenPom. That was Cuonzo Martin’s squad in 2014, who barely landed in Dayton as an 11 seed…but was actually the fifth-best team in the region via KenPom.

Tennessee Tournament Teams by Seed & KenPom Rank in Region

Year	Seed	KenPom Region Rank
2023	4	1st
2022	3	3rd
2021	5	5th
2019	2	2nd
2018	3	3rd
2014	11	5th
2011	9	11th
2010	6	8th
2009	9	9th
2008	2	4th
2007	5	7th
2006	2	4th

Here’s where we get to talk about the ol’ luck rating. Cuonzo’s team was 341st nationally (out of 351) in KenPom’s luck stat, 0-6 in games decided by six points or less. That bunch was down five with 4:40 to play against Iowa in the play-in game, but got the game to overtime, where they held the Hawkeyes to one (1) point. And just like that, they were on a path that was one possession away from the Elite Eight.

This Tennessee team is 3-4 in games decided by six points or less, and obviously 0-2 at the buzzer. They’re 324th in KenPom luck, the second-worst number of any UT squad.

We’re in the make-your-own-luck time of the year now, and a Tennessee squad that’s been shorthanded all year will play its most important games without Zeigler, while figuring out how they’ll extend rotations for the rest of the team. The Vols are imperfect, but well-practiced in their incompleteness by now. The field is open, and perhaps nowhere more than the East region. All things considered, you’d still rather have the best team. And I’m excited to see what this team’s best can be.

Go Vols.

I love the simplicity of the NCAA Tournament. It takes a minute to get there sometimes: last year the Vols rode an emotional wave on Selection Sunday, winning the SEC Tournament only to still be disappointed with a three seed. For better and for worse, no such drama is available to Tennessee this year. And with no Zakai Zeigler available, there’s a bit of a shrug about this whole business.

But that shrug is for predictability, and not for a lack of desired outcome. The Vols will play a first round game in just a few days. Tennessee has been good at the “survive” part already this year, this team bothered by injuries more than any of our tournament groups going back through the Pearl era. Now comes the advance part. It’s this part, in the sport’s very nature, that always carries the greatest risk and the sweetest reward.

There will be time to look at individual matchups once the bracket is announced. But for now, let’s simply start with Tennessee. How do the Vols advance?

Team Defense

• 20-0 when opponents score less than 60 points

While UCLA has momentarily usurped Tennessee’s KenPom defense crown, the Vols are still plenty good here. The first question for any opponent: can you get to 60 against us? The Vols are third nationally in effective field goal percentage allowed, and still first in three-point percentage allowed, even though that number has improved for opponents. The Vols allowed 28.9% in conference play from three, and sit at 26.2% on the season.

The flip side of this one, of course, is Tennessee is 3-10 when opponents score 60 or more. But the Vols do have meaningful wins over Texas (82-71) and Vanderbilt (77-68) at those marks, and beat Alabama with the Tide at 59 points.

Maybe we’ll see it show up and overwhelm a first round opponent. But either way, Tennessee’s defense remains elite, even with their turnover prowess lessened without Zeigler. This is level one.

Defend Without Fouling

• 21-3 when committing less than 20 fouls
• 19-3 when the opponent makes less than 15 free throws
• 17-3 when the opponent attempts less than 20 free throws

The corresponding stat here: it’s the same three losses in each of those. Vanderbilt and Missouri (twice) are the only teams to hit 10+ threes against the Vols this season. So for sure, if an opponent catches fire from the arc, the Vols could be in trouble. But if they don’t, the Vols don’t want to help an opponent cheat past their defense by getting an abundance of points at the free throw line.

More on rotations and tournament minutes without Zeigler in a moment, but keep an eye on Jahmai Mashack here. In two of three full games without Zeigler, he’s gone to the bench early with foul trouble, and played just 13 minutes at Auburn.

Crash the Offensive Glass

• 15-1 with a 39+% offensive rebounding percentage

The one loss here is Missouri in Knoxville: 14 threes and a buzzer beater, etc. But the best remedy for an offense that can struggle with good shooting is to attack the boards, and Tennessee is generally very good at that. They’re also less limited here by Zeigler’s absence than anywhere else.

This stat also catches a large percentage of Tennessee’s Quad 1 wins: Kansas, Texas, Maryland, and Starkville all featured 40+% offensive rebounding performances. At first, it seems easy to make this the go-to stat: the Vols are 15-1 at 39+%, but just 1-4 at 26.5% or less. But the one in 1-4 is Alabama (21.4%). Still, attacking the offensive glass is where Tennessee’s offense shines brightest.

Individual Players: Not Enough Information

• 4-0 when Josiah-Jordan James plays 30+ minutes
• 9-1 when Josiah-Jordan James scores 11+ points
• 13-2 when Julian Phillips plays 26+ minutes
• 12-2 when Julian Phillips makes 3+ shots

A couple of outliers here: the one loss when Josiah scores 11+ is Colorado in the second game of the season. The most reliable of these numbers is Julian at 3+ made field goals, bested only by Vanderbilt and Missouri yesterday, both at 10+ threes made.

But both of these groups simply need more data, and we’re almost out of time. We’re not, however, out of minutes…and Rick Barnes loves to give those to his best players in March.

Look at the increase in minutes for the top of the rotation in Tennessee’s most recent competitive NCAA Tournament games:

Player	Avg. Minutes	2022 Michigan
Vescovi	31	38
Chandler	31	37
James	29	37
Player	Avg. Minutes	2021 Oregon St
Vescovi	29	35
K. Johnson	26	35
J. Springer	26	31
Player	Avg. Minutes	2019 Purdue
Bone	33	39
Schofield	32	42
Turner	31	41
Bowden	28	36
Player	Avg. Minutes	2019 Iowa
Turner	31	41
Bowden	28	35
Alexander	24	33
Player	Avg. Minutes	2018 Loyola
Williams	29	34
Bowden	28	33
Turner	25	32
Bone	23	31

It’s a safe bet you’re getting ready to see a ton of Santiago Vescovi. I think there’s reason to believe the same will be true for Josiah-Jordan James. Are there more minutes getting ready to materialize for Julian Phillips as well?

And in the post?

Individual Players: Post Scoring

• 11-2 when Olivier Nkamhoua makes 5+ shots
• 9-0 when Jonas Aidoo makes 3+ shots

There’s only a tiny bit of overlap here, with Nkamhoua and Aidoo both crossing these thresholds just twice. That makes the Vols 16-2 when just one of these two things happens. Tennessee needs one of those two to produce offensively to create their best basketball. And UT’s most frequent lineups put these two guys on the floor together; we’ll see what more minutes for Josiah and/or Julian might do to those pairings.

The Vols aren’t perfect, but no one is, especially this season. Defend without fouling, crash the offensive glass, get one of your bigs going inside…and let’s see what some extra minutes for UT’s best players might do.

The fun starts soon.

Go Vols.

The Vols got more good reps without Zakai Zeigler yesterday, rolling past Ole Miss despite the Rebels’ hot shooting in the first ten minutes. Santiago Vescovi played 36 minutes, plus 39 at Auburn and 38 vs Arkansas when Zeigler went down. But while we may not want to do that four days in a row, it’s not so different from what’s been asked from Vescovi since the Texas game. The Vol senior has played 34+ minutes in 10 of the last 12 games, logging 31 in the home meeting with Auburn and 25 in the blowout of South Carolina.

The biggest changes in minutes and rotations have been more game-to-game. Jonas Aidoo played 30 minutes against Arkansas and Auburn, but just 14 yesterday. Getting 31 minutes from Josiah-Jordan James against Ole Miss was big, and the senior responded with 20 points and 7 rebounds. And Olivier Nkamhoua bounced back in a big way after getting just 21 minutes at Auburn, with nine points and four assists in 28 minutes vs Ole Miss.

The Vols are versatile, and their biggest wins other than Texas this season have come while down at least one contributor. There are hopefully several more games left in this season, but to this point this Tennessee team has had more players miss time with injury than any of our other NCAA Tournament teams in the last 17 years.

Here’s how that looks by comparison, taking the top five players in minutes played in each of our 12 NCAA Tournament teams in that span, with the percentage of games they appeared in each season:

2023	Pct. of Games Played
Vescovi	91
Zeigler	94
Nkamhoua	100
Phillips	88
JJJ	63
2022
Vescovi	100
Chandler	97
JJJ	91
Zeigler	100
Fulkerson	94
2021
Vescovi	100
Pons	96
JJJ	93
Fulkerson	93
Springer	93
2019
Bone	100
Williams	100
Schofield	100
Turner	77
Bowden	97
2018
Williams	100
Schofield	100
Bowden	100
Turner	100
Bone	100
2014
Stokes	100
McRae	100
Richardson	100
Maymon	100
Barton	100
2011
Hopson	94
Harris	100
Goins	97
Tatum	100
Williams	94
2010
Hopson	100
Chism	100
T. Smith	32
Prince	100
Maze	100
2009
T. Smith	100
Prince	91
Chism	100
Maze	100
Hopson	100
2008
Lofton	100
T. Smith	100
J. Smith	100
Chism	100
R. Smith	100
2007
Lofton	89
J. Smith	100
Bradshaw	100
R. Smith	100
Crews	100
2006
Lofton	100
Watson	100
Bradshaw	100
Patterson	100
Wingate	100

At this point, the 2023 Vols are the only one of these teams to have two of their top five players in minutes played appear in less than 90% of games. If Tennessee keeps winning, Julian Phillips can ultimately get back above that 90% threshold. But Josiah-Jordan James prior inactivity will still keep this team at the bottom of this list, if you take away Tyler Smith’s January 1 dismissal in 2010.

Tennessee gets another chance today against Missouri, who I’ll tip my hat to if they make 14 threes against us again. Keep an eye on the minutes for Vescovi and Josiah, or any new rotations. But this team, to their absolute credit, has been figuring it out without all its pieces all season. And that, as much as anything, gives me hope that there’s more good basketball still out there in front of them.

Go Vols.

In Sunday’s Bracket Matrix, the Vols are holding on the three line. Following the loss to Auburn, Tennessee is the last of the three seeds there, 12th overall. Joe Lunardi’s bracket from Sunday evening agrees. And the Vols are still third in NET, one of only 10 teams with 7+ Quad 1 wins and a winning record against that group.

There are still a couple of scenarios where Tennessee could fall to four: a quick exit in the SEC Tournament, or the committee docking this group for Zakai Zeigler’s absence. As opposed to last season, the committee’s process might actually be advantageous to the Vols this year:

As seen just now on CBS, I believe this is a first in terms of the NCAA broadly laying out the committee’s layer-by-layer process on a made-for-TV graphic a week out from the bracket reveal. pic.twitter.com/RopEq8sCAh

— Matt Norlander (@MattNorlander) March 5, 2023

There’s good news geographically as well: while the Vols appear to have no shot at the Louisville region with Alabama atop that bracket, Tennessee does seem safe to spend the first two rounds in Greensboro. With the Vols a clear number two from the SEC and a down year from the ACC, look for Tennessee and Virginia to head to North Carolina. A 3/6 matchup with Duke in round two isn’t out of the question.

I think the biggest thing for Tennessee this week is simply more reps without Zeigler. Santiago Vescovi played 39 minutes at Auburn, with foul trouble limiting Josiah-Jordan James to 26 minutes and Jahmai Mashack to just 13. Jonas Aidoo played a season-high 30 minutes against Arkansas and Auburn as lineups shifted around.

One word of gratitude: this will only be the third run in school history of 5+ NCAA Tournaments in a row. Don DeVoe’s guys did it from 1979-1983. Bruce Pearl’s teams went in each of his six seasons from 2006-2011. And for Rick Barnes, it’s now five in a row (plus the covid year).

In the 64-team format, the Vols have only been a Top 4 seed seven times; this year should make eight. And Barnes’ teams will have half of those: a two seed in 2019, with threes in 2018, 2022, and (hopefully) 2023.

As Tennessee’s master plan for the athletic department uses Top 16 finishes as one of its goals, I like looking at basketball success through the lens of that Top 4 seed conversation: did you have the kind of regular season to make yourself a favorite to advance to the second weekend of the tournament? In UT’s case, even through ongoing injury concerns, that answer should again be yes.

Of the 52 entries in Wednesday’s Bracket Matrix, 50 had the Vols as a three seed. This chaos season has actually solidified the top of the tournament: Alabama, Houston, Kansas, and Purdue remain entrenched as the ones, with UCLA, Texas, Baylor, and Arizona firm on the two line. Should the Wildcats slip down, their brethren from Manhattan, KS are most poised to move up from the three line in the matrix. Marquette and Gonzaga join the Vols and Kansas State there.

I appreciate Joe Lunardi – who got the Vols’ placement dead on last year even while disagreeing with it – who works to put stakes on every outcome:

pic.twitter.com/aNem7QR34V

— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 1, 2023

But we all carry the scars of last season, when winning the SEC Tournament did nothing for Tennessee on the seed line. If the Vols were a three in the bracket reveal a couple of weeks ago, and have kept pace with everyone else’s chaos…they seem likely to be a three on Selection Sunday no matter what happens from here.

The most cynical among us could make the argument that the Vols are more likely to move down because of Zakai Zeigler’s injury than move up by winning out.

https://twitter.com/Vol_Hoops/status/1631021602715598848

There are an incalculable number of words to be said about Zeigler, and thankfully more seasons left to say them. And there are plenty of words to say about Tennessee without Zeigler; Will Warren has a great breakdown of how the Vols might look.

This Tennessee team is well-versed in the chaos that defines this season:

The Vols have wins over:

Kansas & Maryland without JJJ
Starkville without Vescovi & Key
Alabama without JJJ & Phillips
Arkansas without Zeigler & Key

— Will Shelton (@wshelton2) March 1, 2023

Seven Quad 1 wins ties the Vols for ninth in the country. Tennessee is still third in NET, fourth in KenPom, and has a chance to play its way to a double-bye in the SEC Tournament on Saturday despite losing five of seven games in February. There is plenty of good already done, plenty more to be done.

We obviously saw Tennessee function at a high level against Arkansas without Zeigler (and Tyreke Key). The Vols adjusted on a fly with a lineup that included 38 minutes for Santiago Vescovi. In postseason play, Rick Barnes isn’t afraid to go this route even with all options available: against Michigan last year, Vescovi, Kennedy Chandler, and Josiah-Jordan James all played 37-38 minutes.

It feels like there’s a decent chance the first line on an opposing scout of Tennessee just became, “Get Vescovi in foul trouble.” The good news there: that’s statistically harder to do with him than any other Tennessee player. Vescovi averages 2.4 fouls per 40 minutes, the best number on the roster. It’s mostly outrageous that he plays so clean while also being 68th nationally in steal percentage. And lineups that include Vescovi + Mashack won’t have to worry about a huge drop-off there without Zeigler, as Jahmai is fifth nationally in that stat.

We might be overly partial to this as a potential red flag because we’ve seen it happen too many times in March. Two years ago the Vols lost John Fulkerson in the SEC Tournament, then saw Yves Pons get into quick foul trouble against Oregon State in round one. That forced Tennessee even deeper into combinations that just hadn’t played together much. In 2019, Kyle Alexander fouled out with three minutes left in overtime against Purdue and the Vols down one. The Boilermakers hit those two free throws, then got a layup and a dunk on their next two possessions to push the lead to seven.

But if Tennessee can keep Vescovi on the floor, I think there’s a good chance they can continue to do the things they’re very best at. Any argument that the Vols would be better without Zeigler is nonsense. But the core of what represents their best basketball – elite defense, limiting fouls, offensive rebounding, and minimally efficient three-point shooting – can survive and advance.

March approaches. Tennessee is holding firm on the three line in the Bracket Matrix, with clear divisions emerging among the top ten teams. At this point it would be a surprise to see something other than the current groupings in the matrix on the one and two lines, plus Kansas State and Tennessee at three.

Of course, the last few weeks have held more surprise than the Vols would’ve liked. Tennessee has lost five of seven, but gets a bounce-back opportunity in hosting South Carolina tomorrow.

Headed into March, what is the best available blueprint for Tennessee? What numbers lead to victory most often, especially offensively as this group tries to find itself?

Nothing is guaranteed: last season the blueprint for Tennessee’s worst basketball was turning it over excessively, then the Vols had a season-low six turnovers against Michigan but lost. But if we’re looking for Tennessee’s most reliable paths to victory, so far this year it goes something like this:

17-0 when opponents score less than 60 points

It starts here, and the Vols are still plenty good at it. Tennessee is still first nationally in defensive efficiency, first in effective field goal percentage allowed, and first in three-point percentage allowed (25%). The Vols are also 17th nationally in turnovers forced and 33rd nationally in blocked shot percentage. Tennessee does almost everything at an elite level defensively. Almost.

13-1 with 16 fouls or less

In defensive free throw rate allowed, the Vols are 290th nationally. The absolute best way to beat Tennessee’s defense is to get to the free throw line.

This plays out in a number of foul-related stats:

• 17-2 when opponents attempt 20 free throws or less (Missouri & Vanderbilt)
• 8-1 when opponents make 11 free throws or less (Vanderbilt)
• 0-5 when opponents have a free throw rate of 37.5% or higher

You’ll see as we go the frequency with with Missouri, Vanderbilt, or both show up as the outliers. They’re the only two teams to hit 10+ threes against the Vols. Tennessee is 1-4 when teams shoot 35+% from three, but the one is number one Alabama.

So yes, teams that are on fire from deep can hurt even Tennessee’s defense. But the more reliable way to get to them is via the free throw line. It’s always less comfortable when you feel a little reliant on how the game is being officiated. For the Vols, is there an emphasis to be placed on defending without fouling?

What about offensively, with the greatest room for improvement?

Here’s a look at each of the last six Tennessee teams, and how they’ve performed offensively in KenPom’s four factors:

Season	KenPom O	EFG%	TO%	OREB%	FT Rate
2023	72	247	191	6	183
2022	35	140	127	46	223
2021	85	189	131	71	92
2020	96	207	280	96	65
2019	3	18	25	72	178
2018	36	176	141	41	107

This team finds itself in the back half of these Barnes teams offensively. They are the worst of the group in shooting, but the best of the group in:

13-1 when getting 40+% of offensive rebounds

If you can’t make shots, you’d better be good at getting the rebound. And these Vols are great at it. Here again, the lone loss is Missouri.

We know Jonas Aidoo is a machine here; Jahmai Mashack is also better than he gets credit for. Two of Tennessee’s best offensive glass guys are, of course, Josiah-Jordan James and Julian Phillips. I obviously don’t know the depth of conversation they’re having on attacking the offensive glass vs transition defense. But Tennessee’s greatest asset offensively is the number of second chances they create for themselves. More history on this from January 16.

And then there’s this old friend:

14-2 when shooting 30+% from three

The two, of course, are Missouri and Vanderbilt. Last season, the Vols were 22-1 at this number, the lone loss at Rupp Arena. Here again, you’re not asking for a whole lot. Santiago Vescovi is heating up, now at 36.1% from the arc on the season. But Tyreke Key (33.6%) is the only other Vol shooting better than 33% among perimeter players. More history on this from February 7.

So, the best available blueprint:

• Hold teams under 60
• Keep opponents to less than 20 free throws
• Crash the offensive glass at 40%
• Shoot 30% from three

Play to your absolute strengths on defense and the offensive glass. Defend without fouling. And get simply minimum efficiency from the three point line.

We’ll see what else we can learn between now and tournament time, starting tomorrow against South Carolina. March is on the horizon. And Tennessee’s best basketball is still plenty good enough to win.

Go Vols.