Category Archives: Basketball

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.

Well. Right out of the gate, this looks like an uphill battle.

Summary and Score Prediction

All buzzers, beepers, and sirens are screaming and blinking red as a Tennessee team having problems keeping even mediocre opponents off the offensive boards are set to take on a Mississippi State Bulldogs team that ranks second in the nation at getting them.

The Vols could manage, though, as their shooting defense is still extremely effective and should always keep them in games. But they also desperately need to find their own shooting touch consistently.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Box out. Rebound. Keep the Bulldogs off the offensive glass. They’re going to get some — it’s what they do — but don’t let it turn into a feast.
2. Balance, again. Go ahead and divert some resources to boxing out, but keep your defensive edge at the same time.
3. Find your shooting touch. It comes via inside touches.

KenPom gives Tennessee a measly 29% chance of winning and puts the score at Mississippi State 67, Tennessee 61.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like Washington and Memphis, and quite a bit better than Tennessee. Nice.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Basically the same as Tennessee. At least there’s that.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Oh, good. After a bad loss due to an inability to keep the other team off the offensive boards, we now get to play the second-best offensive rebounding team in the country. Woo.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Most like Cincinnati and Mississippi, and better than Tennessee. Sigh.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is 48.8 (No. 199), and Mississippi State’s defensive eFG% is 47.3 (No. 95).

When Mississippi State has the ball

The Bulldogs’ eFG% is 51.2 (No. 93), and Tennessee’s shooting defense is 42.9 (No. 7).

Conclusions

The Vols really need to find their shooting touch and make it happen consistently. The Bulldogs shoot well, but Tennessee’s shooting defense is still really good at frustrating opponents.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

The Vols turnover % is 20.9 (No. 284), and the Bulldogs’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 18.6 (No. 201).

When Mississippi State has the ball

Mississippi State’s turnover % is 21.1 (No. 298) and will be going up against Tennessee’s defensive rating of 19.8 (No. 129).

Conclusions

Neither team is very good at causing turnovers, but both teams are perfectly willing to just give the ball to the other team. It’s like Christmas!

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 28.9 (No. 153), and Mississippi State’s defense in that category is 29.1 (No. 222).

When Mississippi State has the ball

The Bulldogs’ OR% is 40 (No. 2), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 29 (No. 218).

Conclusions

Gulp. This is a bona fide emergency. Tennessee’s bad at keeping opponents from getting offensive rebounds, and that just happens to be the Bulldogs’ specialty.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 34 (No. 129), while Mississippi State’s defense against that is 29.5 (No. 127).

When Mississippi State has the ball

The Bulldogs’ FT Rate is 36.9 (No. 69), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 30.8 (No. 157).

Conclusions

Advantage Bulldogs.

Go Vols.

Six years ago tomorrow, Tennessee went to Alabama and put a beat down on the Tide 76-59. The win moved Cuonzo Martin’s squad to 14-7 (5-3), in position to capitalize on its last ten games and make the tournament with room to spare. In response, they lost four of their next six, a stretch that ended with an overtime loss at Texas A&M (KenPom 138 at tip-off). The Vols were 16-11 (7-7) with no opportunities left for marquee victories.

The lesson from that year is hopefully easier learned when we’re not dealing with petitions at the same time: don’t quit on your team until the math says they can’t earn an at-large bid. Those Vols won four in a row, the last three by an average of 31 points, then beat South Carolina by 15 in the second round of the SEC Tournament, then flirted with victory against 31-2 Florida on Saturday. That was all just enough to get them to Dayton. And as that team will also remind you, all you’ve gotta do is get in: four games later they were a disputed charge call from the Elite Eight.

So yeah, the current Tennessee team did themselves zero favors in losing to another Texas A&M team with a triple digit KenPom on another lucky three. What would’ve been a tidy resume on a soft bubble now has Tennessee’s first bad loss of the year. And as much as anything, it’s one more win the Vols won’t have for a team looking to get in on strength of schedule and late-season improvement, not a big win total.

What follows is (hopefully!) the beginning of an exercise we do around here whenever the Vols are on the bubble: how does the bracket’s past inform its present, and how likely are the Vols to hit those historical benchmarks for a team that gets in? The NCAA’s change from RPI to NET means we say goodbye to lots of research, since we haven’t had to worry about the bubble the last couple years.

Here’s the good news: if Tennessee is going to get to 19+ wins, they’re going to have to beat good teams along the way. If they’re going to beat good teams, it’s because they’re getting better. If they’re close, it’s because they got quality wins to get there. That argument really does feel like the only way in for this team. And, thanks to roster shakeup, it goes a little farther than the average bear: Tennessee has still only played five games with both Santiago Vescovi and Uros Plavsic.

So the same rules apply, as always: get better, get wins. The margin of error has simply shrunk to create incredibly meaningful outcomes every time out now. They’re not all must-win – an 11-0 finish probably means an SEC title! – but the Vols have eleven opportunities left to get as close to 20 wins as possible, facing a schedule that makes almost nothing easy.

So here, for as long as we can enjoy it, is what I think it’ll take to get the Vols on the bubble.

The Bottom Line: 19-15

Since the tournament expanded to 68 in 2011, eight teams earned an at-large bid with 14 losses on Selection Sunday. Plus, in each of the last three years, an SEC team has danced with 15 losses. In 2011 Marquette danced at 20-14. Each of the other ten teams to get in with 14 or 15 losses all won 19 games. (Fun fact: only one went to Dayton!)

Year	Team	Record	Seed
2019	Florida	19-15	10
2019	Ohio State	19-14	11
2018	Texas	19-14	10
2018	Alabama	19-15	9
2017	Vanderbilt	19-15	9
2017	Michigan State	19-14	9
2011	Marquette	20-14	11
2011	Michigan State	19-14	10
2011	Southern Cal	19-14	Dayton
2011	Tennessee	19-14	9
2011	Penn State	19-14	10

If you’re looking for the kind of soft bubble year that could materialize this season, 2011 is a good example. A common thread here: these are all power conference teams, and with the exception of Penn State and Southern Cal in 2011, they all carry good-to-great name brands.

(Also, Oklahoma State got in at 18-13 in 2015, but that record isn’t available to Tennessee; the closest the Vols could come would be an 18-13 regular season finish plus whatever happened in the SEC Tournament.)

So any conversation about Tennessee getting in has to land, historically speaking, with the Vols finishing at 19-15 or better.

In KenPom, 10 of those 11 teams had a Top 25 strength of schedule; the 11th was 2011 USC, who went to Dayton with a schedule rating of 36. Tennessee’s strength of schedule is currently 65th, but as we’ll see, that’s getting ready to rise. How high? Well…

It goes without saying you want the non-conference teams the Vols played to all do well (yes, even Memphis). Therein lie some potential problems: Washington was 10-2 but now sits at 12-10 (2-7); four of their last five losses came in overtime, overtime, by one, and by three. VCU gets another shot at Dayton in Richmond on February 18.

At the moment, those are both Quad 1 wins for Tennessee. They both came with Lamonte Turner, but that’s really only an argument you make if the Vols come up short on Quad 1 wins in general, and if they do that, they’re not going to be anywhere near the bubble anyway.

Here Comes Quad 1

Quad 1 in the NET ratings is a home win over a Top 30 team, a neutral win over a Top 50 team, and a road win over a Top 75 team. VCU is currently 33rd in NET; Kansas and Florida State are safe barring total collapse. Washington is currently 48th; it would help if they stayed in the Top 50.

But if you want opportunity, behold:

Opponent	Current NET	Quad
at Mississippi St	43	1
at Alabama	40	1
Kentucky	23	1
Arkansas	38	2
at South Carolina	75	1
Vanderbilt	165	4
at Auburn	27	1
at Arkansas	38	1
Florida	42	2
at Kentucky	23	1
Auburn	27	1

Again: if the Vols even approach the bubble, they’ll have done so with quality wins.

Paths to the Bubble

If 19-15 is a proven minimum, the Vols can get at least there a number of ways. Let’s do something A&M proved clearly unsafe, and assume the Vols beat Vanderbilt in Knoxville on February 18. That would be a second Quad 3/4 loss (Texas A&M is currently 126th in NET and needs to stay above 160 the rest of the way to prevent the Vols from having a Quad 4 loss). Vanderbilt can be feisty, but is still 0-7 in league play. A loss to the Commodores in Knoxville would be catastrophic.

So, let’s give ourselves that one. That’s 13 wins with 10 other games on the table. The pain of losing to A&M is felt most here: win that one, and you’ve got a really nice argument to just go 5-5 in these last ten games, and you’re 19-12 (11-7) and sitting pretty headed to the SEC Tournament.

Now, if you give the Vols Vanderbilt, you’ve got the following scenarios to get to at least 19-15:

• 17-14 (9-9): Vols go 4-6 in those 10 games, need at least two wins in the SEC Tournament (this is Tennessee’s current projection in KenPom)
• 18-13 (10-8): Vols go 5-5 in those 10 games, need at least one win in the SEC Tournament
• 19-12 (11-7): Vols go 6-4 in those 10 games

If Tennessee finishes at least .500 in SEC play, we can at least talk ourselves into something at the SEC Tournament. If you want to feel safe, the Vols need to beat Vanderbilt and win more than they lose against everyone else.

KenPom currently gives the Vols 3.99 wins in those other 10 games. So clearly, we’re talking about Tennessee exceeding expectations. One point here too: when the resume looks like this, there’s very little room between the bubble and missing the NIT. If the Vols are 17-14 we’ll go to Nashville hoping for a couple of wins, but a first round loss might also leave them out of any postseason play at 17-15. This happened to Rick Barnes’ second team, who was 14-10 (6-5) on February 8 but lost five of their last seven, then fell to Georgia in the first round of the SEC Tournament, and stayed home at 16-16.

If there’s any good news here, it’s again the belief that this team has a better chance to get better than most because it’s still getting all of its pieces lined up. The Vols need to beat Vanderbilt. And they need to win as many games as possible the rest of the way. It’s simple, but not easy.

That starts tomorrow in Starkville against a Mississippi State team that’s won four of its last five and is also eyeing the tournament. 2:00 PM ET, ESPNU. Get better, get wins, get dancing.

Go Vols.

In our four-factors preview of the Tennessee-Texas A&M game yesterday, this was the to-do list we came up with:

Balance. The Vols’ shooting defense is so good and A&M’s shooting offense is so bad that the Vols could probably play safe enough to minimize A&M’s trips to the charity stripe and still pretty much shut them down from the field. Find the right balance.

Turnovers and rebounds seem to be fairly even, so win those battles.

Don’t forget that the magic phrase is “inside-out.”

The Aggies were, in fact, terrible shooting the ball, even when they were right at the rim. By the end of it all, Tennessee had held them to 30.4% from the field and 26.9% from three. The Vols weren’t much better from three, but they were quite a bit better from the field, hitting 46.7% of their shots.

One of the chief problems last night, though, was that the Vols never really found a good balance of defense and fouling. A&M shot 29 free throws to Tennessee’s 15, and the Aggies hit nearly 76% of them for 22 points. Tennessee had only 10 points at the free-throw line.

The Vols also gave up a huge number of offensive rebounds and second-chance shots. While the Vols had only 4 offensive boards, the Aggies had an astounding 23.

Turnovers and defensive rebounds were basically a wash, but those offensive rebounds and extra trips to the free-throw line ended up costing the Vols. Perhaps they could have eased up defensively, boxed out a little more, and let the Aggies shoot themselves into a loss.

But that’s not how it played out, as the Vols lost to the Aggies 63-58 at home. It’s a disappointing outcome on the heels of the positivity emanating from keeping it close on the home court of the No. 3 team in the country just three days prior.

We should expect some ups and downs from a team with so many young players playing so many key roles, so I wouldn’t count these guys out just yet. But they did just dig the hole a little deeper Tuesday night.

Previously on GRT Four Factors: These were the goals we identified for the Vols heading into the Kansas game:

1. If you shoot poorly, make them shoot worse. Possess this ability, you do.
2. Turn turnovers into easy points. If somebody gives you cake, you eat it, right? Eat the cake.
3. If able, steal their cloaking devices. If you manage this, the Big 12 will award you an honorary doctorate from every school in the conference. Except probably Kansas.

How’d they do?

1. The Vols shot 45.5% from the field and 40% from the arc, and they held Kansas to 46.3% from the field and 23.5% from three. That’s pretty good, and it’s what kept them close.
2. There wasn’t a lot of opportunity for fast break points created by turnovers because Kansas only turned the ball over 6 times. This didn’t work.
3. Nope. There were 23 fouls called on Tennessee and only 16 called on Kansas. Free throw attempts were 33 for the Jayhawks to 16 for the good guys. This didn’t work, either.

Still, Tennessee kept it interesting right until the end and only lost 74-68. It was a good game plan, and it was executed pretty well, but in the end Azubuike was just too good.

Let’s have a look at what might happen tonight against the Aggies.

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.

Hmm. The Aggies don’t shoot very well.

Summary and Score Prediction

This game pits one huge advantage against another: Tennessee’s shooting defense should smother a bad-shooting A&M team into a terrible shooting percentage, but the Aggies should have a huge advantage at keeping the Vols off the free throw line while getting there a lot themselves.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Balance. The Vols’ shooting defense is so good and A&M’s shooting offense is so bad that the Vols could probably play safe enough to minimize A&M’s trips to the charity stripe and still pretty much shut them down from the field. Find the right balance.
2. Turnovers and rebounds seem to be fairly even, so win those battles.
3. Don’t forget that the magic phrase is “inside-out.”

KenPom gives Tennessee an 87% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 65, Texas A&M 52. That makes me nod.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Tennessee’s been shooting better, but still has a pretty deep hole to climb out of, but the good news is that Texas A&M is a really bad shooting team.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Neither team writing home about this one.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Eh, basically even here.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Ooh. Goodness. These guys live at the line. Good to know.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is 48.6 (No. 209), and A&M’s defensive eFG% is 46.9 (No. 84). This is where I would usually say that Tennessee’s shooting woes aren’t getting better tonight, but they have actually been shooting better, so what do I know?

When Texas A&M has the ball

The Aggies’ eFG% is 45.3 (No. 327), and Tennessee’s shooting defense is 43.2 (No. 8). Could be a long night for the Aggies.

Conclusions

A&M has a pretty good shooting defense, but the Vols seem to have found their touch lately. On the other end, there is a monstrous disparity with a terrible shooting team going up against an elite shooting defense in the Vols. This could be fun. For us.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

The Vols turnover % is still terrible at 20.9 (No. 280), and the Aggies’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 21.6 (No. 59). Smh.

When A&M has the ball

A&M’s turnover % is identical to that of Tennessee’s at 20.9 (No. 281) and ranks lower only by a third-letter tiebreaker. It will be going up against a defensive rating of 19.6 (No. 141).

Conclusions

Rather than fighting this, I’m just going to think differently about it for the sake of my sanity. Turnovers are fun!

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 29.4 (No. 120), and A&M’s defense in that category is 31.5 (No. 300).

When A&M has the ball

The Aggies’ OR% is 29 (No. 138), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 27.4 (No. 145).

Conclusions

Maybe a slight advantage for the Vols on the offensive boards.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 34 (No. 130), while Texas A&M’s defense against that is 25.3 (No. 33).

When A&M has the ball

The Aggies’ FT Rate is 39.9 (No. 27), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 29.7 (No. 130).

Conclusions

A&M looks to have a huge advantage in free throw attempts.

Go Vols.

It’s happened a couple of times to the Vols in football: best-of-the-best talent on the other team gets held in relative check until the very end, but the end is all they need. Jadeveon Clowney did it against us. Rocket Ismail did too, if you go back that far.

Today the Vols executed the gameplan they wanted against short-handed Kansas: get Udoka Azubuike in foul trouble and take advantage when he’s off the floor. In the first half his second foul immediately led to an 18-8 Vol spurt. His return led to an 18-4 Kansas run. The Vols kept fighting, cutting the lead to three with two minutes to play. From there:

• Azubuike gets a fairly generous call on John Fulkerson while setting a screen, hits one of two free throws, Kansas by four
• Azubuike reads and intercepts an alley-oop attempt from Jordan Bowden to John Fulkerson
• Devon Dotson is fouled by Santiago Vescovi, makes one of two free throws, Kansas by five with 55 seconds to go
• Azubuike blocks John Fulkerson’s shot out of bounds
• Azubuike blocks Yves Pons’ shot and recovers it
• Kansas hits free throws, wins by six

After playing 31-35 minutes the last four games, the Vols kept Azubuike to 27 today with foul trouble. In those 27 minutes he still had 18 points on 6-of-7 shooting and a better-than-average 6-of-11 at the free throw line. He added 11 rebounds and four blocks, none bigger than the plays he created at the end of the game.

Tennessee let its best players take almost all the shots: Jalen Johnson got a good look at a three late that didn’t go down, which was the only shot by a bench player on the day. John Fulkerson was a focal point again, 15 points on 7-of-12 shooting plus 12 rebounds. Jordan Bowden sat out with foul trouble in the first half, then came alive with 19 points, all in the second half, including three threes and lots of confidence going to the rim.

Maybe the moment got a little big for Josiah James, who went 0-for-6 with six turnovers. But the moment was never better for Yves Pons: a career-high 24 points on just 14 shots plus 6-of-7 at the line, to go with seven rebounds and three blocks. Pons was sensational today especially given what Tennessee was asking him to do on the defensive end, spending time dealing with both Azubuike and Dotson.

Unlike maddening losses to North Carolina in 2017 (3-of-13 from the arc) and 2018 (self-inflicted turnovers at the bitter end), this result as an underdog against an elite program makes more sense. The Vols were good today, almost good enough. Azubuike was better.

But today’s good can be plenty good enough to get the Vols where they want to go this season.

Jordan Bowden: Coach told us in the locker room that we can play with anybody in the country. No. 3 team in the country, we were right there.

— @GrantRamey (@GrantRamey) January 25, 2020

This is true, and this Kansas team was a particularly nasty match-up for this Tennessee team. The Vols defend well enough to give themselves a chance, are getting smart, difference-making basketball from John Fulkerson on a regular basis, and got the best we’ve ever seen from Yves Pons today in non-fluke fashion.

The only way this loss really hurts is if Tennessee doesn’t take care of enough of its own business the next seven weeks. KenPom projects the Vols to finish 18-13 (10-8), which is playing .500 ball in SEC play the rest of the way. That would get the Vols in the conversation. The team we saw today can do more than that.

The schedule breaks into two parts, with a pair of well-timed intermissions. The Vols will come back from Kansas to face Texas A&M in Knoxville on Tuesday; the Aggies are 166th in KenPom. Then it’s the warm-up:

• at Mississippi State, at Alabama, vs Kentucky, vs Arkansas, at South Carolina

There’s a chance to get Quad I wins in three or four of those games, with the toughest tests at home. Then the Vols get Vanderbilt in Knoxville on February 18. Then it’s the finale:

• at Auburn, at Arkansas, vs Florida, at Kentucky, vs Auburn

That finish might go five-for-five in Quad I.

The goal, as always: get better. Be playing your best basketball in March, and give yourself the best possible opportunity in the bracket along the way. The loss today won’t help the resume on paper, but it was definitely among Tennessee’s best basketball so far. Can this team, still learning how all its pieces fit together, keep getting better as the schedule does? We saw today it can have a chance against anyone. It just needs to get on the dance floor to prove it. Every win counts.

Are the suspensions of Silvio De Sousa and David McCormack good news or bad news for Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament hopes?

If this was college football, maybe you lean into the bad news argument: one game against a top five opponent (and number one in KenPom) playing without a starter and a key reserve, if you beat them they weren’t at full strength, if they beat you it’s a worse loss, etc. But in the 30+ game landscape of college basketball, I don’t think a Tennessee upset at Kansas gets poo-pooed on Selection Sunday unless the Jayhawks fall off the earth without De Sousa, which seems unlikely given that he plays a little more than eight minutes per game. Winning at Kansas would still be a huge deal for this team, and now you’ve got them a little short-handed.

Only a little, though, so a loss here doesn’t end or dramatically change Tennessee’s own bubble hopes. The Vols were in the next four out in the January 23 Bracket Matrix, appearing in 16 of 96 brackets (16.7%). Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology has the Vols as the first team out.

This Tennessee team continues to find itself in the space between its own history. Here’s a chart we’ve used before, showing Tennessee’s teams in the KenPom era:

Year	KenPom	Record	Finish
2019	26.24	31-6	Sweet 16
2014	23.69	24-13	Sweet 16
2018	22.27	26-9	Round 2
2008	22.17	31-5	Sweet 16
2006	19.44	22-8	Round 2
2010	18.50	28-9	Elite 8
2007	18.29	24-11	Sweet 16
2009	16.48	21-13	Round 1
2020	13.50	12-6
2002	12.67	15-16
2017	12.62	16-16
2011	12.41	19-15	Round 1
2012	11.38	19-15	NIT
2003	10.99	17-12	NIT
2013	10.47	20-13	NIT
2005	8.89	14-17
2016	7.31	15-19
2004	7.30	15-14	NIT
2015	7.24	16-16

The Vols continue to play a tick below every Tennessee team to make the NCAA Tournament post-Jerry Green except one (Bruce Pearl’s final season), and a tick above the rest of the field. Some of those Tennessee teams in that next group down made the NIT, some finished at or near .500.

If you compare the Vols to a couple of teams we hoped could make the tournament in late January, you’ll find some cautionary tales. Donnie Tyndall’s squad was 12-5 (4-1) five years ago today, though just 77th in KenPom. And the advanced metrics proved to be true: Tennessee went 3-10 the rest of the regular season, failed to make the NIT, and finished with the lowest KenPom rating of any Vol squad (2002-present).

Rick Barnes’ second squad lost to Chattanooga in the opener, dropped a pair of close games in Maui, and almost won at Chapel Hill. They were 9-9 (2-4) through their first 18 games before winning four in a row, including Kentucky and Kansas State in Knoxville, to get to 13-9 (5-4) at the end of January. But they went 3-6 the rest of the way home, and also failed to make the NIT despite finishing that season 57th in KenPom.

So we’ve seen Tennessee get to this point through the first third of SEC play twice in the last six years, only to watch them peak too soon and ultimately miss both the NCAA and the NIT. This season there’s a separate conversation to be had with Tennessee’s schedule, which takes a step up in February and then a giant leap in the last five games (at Auburn, at Arkansas, vs Florida, at Kentucky, vs Auburn). Right now, the Vols just need wins; the opportunity for quality will be there at the end if the total is high enough to be in the conversation.

But if you’re looking for a resume win, this would be the best one of the season, with or without De Sousa and McCormack.

It’s clearly a chaos year in college basketball, which leads to a soft bubble. The current last four in via the Bracket Matrix:

• Virginia Tech 14-5 (5-3), 57 KenPom
• NC State 14-5 (5-3), 43 KenPom
• Minnesota 11-8 (5-4), 34 KenPom
• DePaul 13-6 (1-5), 62 KenPom

And here’s who went to Dayton last year:

• Belmont 27-6 (16-2), 49 KenPom
• Temple 23-10 (13-5), 69 KenPom
• St. John’s 21-13 (8-10), 88 KenPom
• Arizona State 23-11 (12-6), 57 KenPom

Last season only two teams with more than 13 losses made the field as an at-large: Florida (19-15) as a 10 seed, Ohio State (19-14) as an 11. That might get a run for its money this season. If Tennessee ends the regular season at 18-13 (10-8) – its current KenPom projection – the Vols should be in the conversation.

A win over Kansas would do incredible things for that conversation. But even without that, a good performance from the SEC in this weekend’s challenge would be big. Unlike years past, we’ll get most of the league’s best in the running tomorrow: Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Georgia sit it out this year. Big 12 teams are still favored in six of ten matchups in KenPom:

• Missouri at #14 West Virginia – 12:00 PM – ESPN
• Iowa State at #16 Auburn – 12:00 PM – ESPNU
• LSU at Texas – 2:00 PM – ESPN
• Mississippi State at Oklahoma – 2:00 PM – ESPN2
• Tennessee at #3 Kansas – 4:00 PM – ESPN
• TCU at Arkansas – 4:00 PM – ESPN2
• Oklahoma State at Texas A&M – 4:00 PM – ESPNU
• #15 Kentucky at #18 Texas Tech – 6:00 PM – ESPN
• Kansas State at Alabama – 6:00 PM – ESPN2
• #1 Baylor at Florida – 8:00 PM – ESPN

The SEC is currently tied for fourth among major conferences in KenPom’s league efficiency ratings, a clear step behind the Big Ten, Big East, and Big 12 – which is why a tie or win tomorrow would be huge for the league – but a crowded SEC can hold its own against the ACC and Pac-12, creating opportunity on the bubble.

At the top of all these projections, of course, is Kansas. The Jayhawks are number one in KenPom, but chaos controls atop the ladder as well: until their 21-point win over Kansas State, Kansas led the nation in KenPom but their efficiency rating was below 30. Only twice in the KenPom era has the number one team finished with a rating below 30: the 2006 Florida Gators, and in 2003, when 32-4 Kentucky finished atop the leaderboard but was upset by Dwyane Wade in the Elite Eight. Both of those seasons saw three seeds win the NCAA Tournament, and elite superstars can shine in the absence of an elite team (Horford and Noah in 2006, Wade plus Carmelo Anthony from the eventual champs in 2003). To put this in perspective: the 2019 Vols, 10th in KenPom with a 26.24 efficiency rating, would be 3rd in 2020 KenPom right now.

There are still good reasons Kansas is number one, and they start with Devon Dotson: the 6’2″ sophomore guard leads the race for KenPom Player of the Year, and is in the Top 300 nationally in ten different statistical categories. Offensively, he’s been sensational at getting to the line: 6.4 attempts per game shooting 82.5% from the stripe. This happened to Tennessee last year, when Dotson had 17 points on eight shots plus 6-of-7 at the stripe in their overtime win. Defensively, Dotson has created at least one steal in every game this season, including five in their overtime win against Dayton. This is very bad news for a Tennessee team currently giving up a steal on 11% of its possessions; how the primary ball-handlers deal with Dotson and the environment is step one of any blueprint for an uspet.

The loss of a 6’9″ and 6’10” player due to suspension would be a big deal for just about any other team…but Udoka Azubuike negates a bunch of that. Everything we’ve been saying about the importance of John Fulkerson getting quality touches in the paint – 13th nationally in effective field goal percentage, 34th nationally in two-point field goal percentage – Azubuike is the poster child for. He leads the nation in effective field goal percentage because the seven-footer is 94-of-122 (77%) from inside the arc. For a Tennessee defense built on shot-blocking (12th nationally) and playing great defense inside the arc (4th nationally), Azubuike is the biggest test Tennessee will see all season.

It’s a tough ask: Dotson excels at taking the ball away from an already-sloppy Tennessee backcourt, Azubuike excels at scoring inside in ways that might negate Tennessee’s greatest defensive strength. Kansas is projected to win by 14 in KenPom; playing close may not help the tournament resume directly, but would move the Vols up the ladder wherever advanced metrics come into play.

So how do you beat this team? What worked for Baylor (don’t foul Dotson, don’t turn it over) and, to a degree, Villanova, doesn’t seem as feasible for Tennessee. But what the Vols can do, for starters: don’t be afraid to get physical and put them on the line. Kansas shoots 66.7% as a team; take away Dotson (and McCormack, a 75% shooter), and you’ve got Azubuike at 40.3% (29-of-72) and Marcus Garrett at 67.4%.

And on the other end, going at these guys and getting Azubuike off the floor would expose the absence of De Sousa and McCormack. A couple quick fouls on the seven footer could change the complexion of this game, and Tennessee’s best basketball in the post-Lamonte/Santiago Vescovi world has involved getting to the line: Tennessee shot five free throws against LSU and a dozen at Georgia, but in the four wins:

• Missouri: 12-of-16 (75%)
• South Carolina: 22-of-28 (78%)
• Vanderbilt: 13-of-14 (92%)
• Ole Miss: 20-of-24 (83%)

Get in there and bang, on both ends of the floor.

What’s interesting about Saturday is it’ll be the first time in a few years that #Vols basketball can go into any game with absolutely nothign to lose.

Might as well play fast and hard and see what happens, right? Nothing to lose.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) January 23, 2020

The bubble is still going to be there on Sunday. In a season full of chaos, one we’ve felt con gusto in Knoxville, Tennessee can create a little more of its own on Saturday. Land some blows, climb the ladder, and we’ll see if the Vols can cash it in.

College Gameday at 11:00 AM, then the Vols and Kansas at 4:00 PM (with the A-team of Shulman, Bilas, and Rowe). Big day ahead.

Go Vols.

From the archives in the garage where this humble little thing was birthed:

It’s a bird! It’s a clown! It’s a Clown-Bird, complete with oversized puffy shoes and an abnormally-sized see-through beak. Sue Grafton says K is for Kill, but Kansas’ Jayhawk is not intimidating. Frightening, in a Teletubbie in your garage kind of way, yes, but intimidating? No.

LOL, your logo is sooo scary! at Rocky Top Talk

Apologies, but I thought it was worth setting the stage for Tennessee’s game against the Kansas Clown-Birds Saturday. Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for the game. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season. Hide the children.

Oof. The Clown-Birds are much, much better at shooting the ball than Tennessee, which you’d think would be hard to do with those shoes. Pretty much, they’re much, much better at everything. But you know what’s funny? They’re almost as bad as Tennessee at the thing Tennessee does worst: turning the ball over. Hahahahaha. Ahem.

Summary and Score Prediction

All those Feelies you’ve been having the past couple of games where the Vols have been shooting well? Expect those particular emojis to turn pink, then red, and then sweat blood before they shoot steam out their ears and blow up. Expecting the Vols to shoot well against Kansas is a recipe for disappointment and distress.

But chin up, because although the Clown Birds generally shoot really well, they’ll be going up against an elite shooting defense in Tennessee. Big 12, meet Yves Pons. He can jump higher than you can shoot. Go ahead, try it.

More bad news: Kansas is playing at home, and the scouting report says that they wear cloaking devices at Allen Fieldhouse, devices that protect them from the prying eyes of the officials and thereby bestow upon them a kind of Foul Amnesty. Hey, it’s not just me. We, on the other hand, must deal with not being invisible, which sucks but is the way of the world.

Other than that, the numbers suggest that Kansas’ edge in rebounding is only slight and that the teams will attempt to outdo each other in the turnover department, giving the ball to the other team more often than that 1987 fruitcake at your white elephant office Christmas party this year. It has the makin’s of something sloppy, is what I’m saying.

The goals for the Vols:

1. If you shoot poorly, make them shoot worse. Possess this ability, you do.
2. Turn turnovers into easy points. If somebody gives you cake, you eat it, right? Eat the cake.
3. If able, steal their cloaking devices. If you manage this, the Big 12 will award you an honorary doctorate from every school in the conference. Except probably Kansas.

KenPom gives Tennessee a whopping 10% chance of winning and puts the score at Kansas 68, Tennessee 54. I’m hoping for more cake and a closer game.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Well, Tennessee’s been shooting better recently (49% from the field and 29.4% from three against Ole Miss and 53.1% from the field against Vanderbilt), but the Vols’ effective field goal percentage is still lagging at 48.5. This ranks them as No. 216 in the nation. (There’s a reason you’ve never heard the cheer “We’re No. 216! We’re No. 216! I mean besides being as awkward as “Okay Google.”) Kansas, on the other hand, well, they’re elite shooters. Bums.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Well, look at that. We’re all in the 200s. If too many turnovers is good enough for Kansas, maybe I’ll stop complaining about them. (But probably not.)

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Okay, not terrible here, but Kansas is still better.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Ditto that on free throw rate. Kansas is better, but not by a lot.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

You’ll recall that We’re No. 216 in eFG%. That stat will be going up against a Kansas defensive eFG% of . . . 43.7 (No. 15). Great.

When Kansas has the ball

The Jayhawks’ eFG% is 54.9 (No. 12), but Tennessee’s shooting defense is 42.9 (No. 7). Hey, that could work.

Conclusions

Don’t disappoint yourself by expecting Tennessee to shoot as well against Kansas as it did against Vanderbilt and Ole Miss. Hey, if it happens, by all means do some cartwheels, but if it doesn’t, don’t take it out on your TV. Now that I think about it, get out the chickenwire.

The good news is that Tennessee should be able to return the favor of frustration.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee turned the ball over only 8 times against Ole Miss, but somehow this YUGE news got swallowed up by an ever-growing fascination for the flopsy-haired John Fulkerson. The Vols turnover % is still squarely in Terrible Territory at 20.8 (No. 263), but the Jayhawks’ defensive counterpart to this stat isn’t anything to wire home about at 19.3 (No. 161).

When Kansas has the ball

Kansas’ turnover % is located in the same sketchy campground as the Vols, at 19.6 (No. 204), and Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20.2 (No. 113).

Conclusions

Forecast: Sloppy. Think pigs in a mudslide.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 29.2 (No. 129), and Kansas’ defense in that category is 25.7 (No. 75). Whatever.

When Kansas has the ball

The Jayhawks’ OR% is 32.5 (No. 56), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 27.3 (No. 143).

Conclusions

So, uh, these guys can rebound, but this is far from an uneven match.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 34.3 (No. 123), while Kansas’ defense against that is 22.4 (No. 15). So they play defense without fouling, apparently. This, presumably, is due to the fact that they play roughly half of their games in Allen Fieldhouse, where they reportedly never touch anybody.

When Kansas has the ball

The Jayhawks’ FT Rate is 35.4 (No. 93), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 28.1 (No. 86).

Conclusions

Look, the notion that the Clown Birds get favorable whistles at home is so widely reported that it might even be partly true. Deal with it.

Go Vols.

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Ole Miss Rebels. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season:

Summary and Score Prediction

In the second half against Vanderbilt Saturday, the Vols seemed to finally figure out how to get behind the defense, whether that was by foregoing threes, by transition offense resulting from good defense on the other end, by an increased emphasis and better execution getting the ball into the post, or by simply driving or passing around defenders to penetrate into the lane. Whatever the case, they shot 66.67% in the second half after managing only 40% in the first.

If that becomes a thing, and if the Vols can continue to keep their already stellar defensive play intact while doing it, then everything should begin to improve. Tonight against Ole Miss, they should have an opportunity to see if that second half at Vandy was an aberration or the first glimpse of a blossoming identity that can serve them well the rest of the way.

The goals for the Vols:

1. On offense, get behind the outside guards. Drive or pass into the post or lane. Play inside-out. However you phrase it, get closer to the basket and continue to improve that shooting percentage.
2. On defense, do what you do, but when you’re done, get to the other end quickly so everything in Step 1 is easier.
3. Turnovers. Sigh. Somebody do something about this.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 78% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 68, Ole Miss 60. We’ll take that.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: As much trouble in the form of inconsistency the Vols have been having shooting the ball this season, Ole Miss really isn’t much better.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Shaking my head at the Vols ranking No. 285 in turnover percentage. Fortunately, the Rebels are pretty careless with the ball, too.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Well here we go. The Vols appear to be much better than Ole Miss at grabbing offensive boards.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Ole Miss is a lot like Cincinnati in getting to the free throw line, and they’re much better at it than the Vols.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Despite shooting much better from the field against Vanderbilt (53.1%), Tennessee’s eFG% is still only 48.2 (No. 227). It will be going up against an Ole Miss defensive eFG% of 48.4 (No. 148).

When Ole Miss has the ball

The Rebels’ eFG% is 49.2 (No. 187), but Tennessee’s shooting defense is 43.4 (No. 13).

Conclusions

It’s anybody’s guess at this point how well or how poorly the Vols will shoot against any given team. The good news, though, is that the Vols’ shooting defense is really, really good, so shooting better than the opponent is always on the table.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s terrible turnover % is now 21.2 (No. 285), while the Rebels’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 20.3 (No. 114).

When Ole Miss has the ball

Ole Miss’ turnover % is 19.7 (No. 206), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20.4 (No. 105).

Conclusions

I’m not sure that the opponent matters so much anymore for the Vols, as they just need to focus on not just gifting the ball to the other team. Period.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 30 (No. 107), but Ole Miss’ defense in that category is 24.9 (No. 50).

When Ole Miss has the ball

The Rebels’ OR% is 27.3 (No. 210), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 27 (No. 120).

Conclusions

Offensive boards should be at a premium for both teams tonight.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 33.5 (No. 143), while Ole Miss’ defense against that is 37.5 (No. 278).

When Ole Miss has the ball

The Rebels’ FT Rate is 36.7 (No. 72), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 28.8 (No. 109).

Conclusions

Tennessee’s still not especially good at getting to the line, but the Vols should have some opportunities to get there more often than usual tonight against the Rebs. This is especially true if the ability to get behind the defense against the Commodores in the second half becomes a thing.

Go Vols.

First, the history: Vanderbilt, as I’m sure you know by now, made a three in each of its 1,080 games since the line came to college basketball in 1986. Tonight, they went 0-for-25.

That’s fun, and the kind of semi-petty rivalry stuff you love. It’s strange to say, but the Vols have now won five of six at Memorial Gym, and four straight since Kevin Stallings left.

The history will get the headlines, but Tennessee’s defense overall was outstanding: the Commodores, to their credit, went 21-of-26 at the free throw line, which is the only reason they didn’t score something in the 30’s. Along with 0-for-25 from three, Vandy went 12-of-26 from two. A dozen made shots is the fewest the Vols have allowed since Donnie Tyndall’s season, when Mississippi State hit 11.

In the first half, it looked like we would have to embrace our worst fears for the rest of this season. The Vols led 21-20 at the break and neither team made a three. But the start of the second half was indeed Tennessee’s best basketball without Lamonte Turner. After a Fulkerson turnover to open the second 20 minutes, we got the following sequence:

• Fulkerson steal
• Bowden layup
• Bowden steal
• Bowden layup
• Vanderbilt turnover
• Vescovi jumper
• Vanderbilt miss
• Pons wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

https://twitter.com/SECNetwork/status/1218691525238050817

After scoring 21 points in the first 20 minutes, the Vols hit an 8-0 spurt in less than 90 seconds. Defense led to offense, offense went to the rim, rinse repeat: the Vols hit 10 of their first 11 shots in the second half and finished at 53.1% from the floor. Most importantly, perhaps: the Vols went just 1-of-8 from three.

Tennessee’s previous season low on attempted threes: their best win, 13 against Washington. The Vols had an eight-three game against Tennessee Tech last season; before that, you have to go back to the Cuonzo Maritn era to find a single digit three game.

Vanderbilt is struggling, especially without Aaron Nesmith, and you can’t build a resume on what you do against the Commodores right now. But you can build confidence, and that’s exactly what it looked like Jordan Bowden did tonight. It’s the kind of game we thought we’d need from him coming into the season: leads the team in shots at 7-of-11, plus gets to the line eight times and hits seven. The high-percentage stuff inside was there too: John Fulkerson took 10 shots after getting just two at Georgia, making five to finish with 12 points and 8 rebounds. Pons went 5-of-7. Josiah James was just 2-of-8 but facilitated on the break like a champ, picking up a number of hockey assists after grabbing nine defensive rebounds. And while the Vols are still working in Plavsic, they also got nice bench minutes from Olivier Nkamhoua with four points and four boards.

In KenPom the Vols go to #25 in defensive efficiency. I doubt teams are going to go 0-for-three the rest of the way, but Tennessee can still cause all kinds of trouble on one end of the floor to create better opportunities for itself where it struggles on the other end. Tennessee welcomes Ole Miss on Tuesday night, currently leading the only undefeated team left in conference play from LSU. Then the Vols go to Kansas, number one in KenPom and hosting College Gameday on Saturday. There’s a lot of basketball in front of the 11-6 (3-2) Vols. The competition will get stiffer and the luck will be kinder to future opponents. But the makings of Tennessee’s best basketball were on display tonight; hopefully they and the confidence they inspired will come on back to Knoxville.

Go Vols.

The Vols fell to 10-6 (2-2) on Wednesday. Sure, Georgia shot well above their averages from three (10-of-23) and at the line (16-of-21), doing us no favors. But Tennessee’s offensive woes continued, even as the quality of defensive competition decreased. The Vols took 26 threes and made only six of them, while getting to the line only a dozen times. Jordan Bowden was better from inside the arc, but went 0-for-5 from three (as did Yves Pons). It was a forgettable performance in a 17-point loss that was worse than that for much of the night.

It’s not exclusively good news, but the league is a certified mess right now. Kentucky lost 81-78 at the same South Carolina team that struggled to score 55 in Knoxville. And top five Auburn, 15-0, went to Alabama and lost by 19 in just their third game against a Top 50 KenPom opponent this season.

Those same ratings project LSU – 4-0 and with a schedule that includes Kentucky and Auburn just once each – to win the league at 13-5, with five other teams finishing between 12-6 and 10-8. KenPom projects more of the same for the Vols: a 9-9 SEC finish (plus a loss at Kansas) which would leave Tennessee at 17-14 on the year.

It’s still too early with too many moving pieces to throw in the towel on this season, but it’s also too early to assume the NIT would be a safe landing spot. As has been the case since Lamonte Turner went out, Tennessee simply needs wins. The younger players getting better is probably the biggest storyline for the program, but if the Vols can piece together more wins like Missouri and South Carolina, they can at least stay in the postseason conversation.

To do that, it’s abundantly clear they have to rely on their defense, still 37th nationally in KenPom and eighth nationally in defending inside the arc, thanks in part to being 17th nationally in shot blocking. That has to become the constant, with Vescovi and Plavsic getting better and not worse as things go along. On the offensive side, there are enough individual points of hope to make Barnes’ frustrations justified, like this:

#Vols coach Rick Barnes: We need so much more from our guards, and we need a post guy to step up and want to score the ball. Fulky just won’t accept that role. Tonight was Uros’ first game, but he actually did some of that stuff, which was good to see.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) January 16, 2020

Fulkerson is 69-of-104 (66.3%) on the year, making him 45th nationally in two-point field goal percentage and 15th in effective field goal percentage. If you thought Kyle Alexander was a high percentage bucket in there, he shot 61.7% from two last year. What Fulkerson is doing is closer to Alexander’s 2018 season, when he went 76-of-112 (67.9%). The difference, of course, is the last two Vol teams had a number of other offensive options. On the current Tennessee roster, going inside to Fulkerson is one of the best plays the Vols can make. Some defenses do a great job denying the ball in there, some can create a mismatch with size in the post. But even as Tennessee is trying to work in Plavsic in the post, we can’t have a game where Fulkerson takes only two shots (Georgia) or three (Wisconsin). Do watch the seven footer as he gets a feel here: Plavsic took six shots in 17 minutes compared to Fulkerson’s two in 22.

Tennessee is fourth nationally in assist rate, sharing the ball on 65.4% of their made baskets. Sometimes that comes via style of play: VMI is second in the nation in this department with nearly half their shots coming from the arc. But while a number of elite offenses get there this way – Michigan State, Iowa, Dayton, Tennessee last year – it’s clearly not a sign of an elite offense by itself. Maine is seventh nationally in assist rate, but 335th in KenPom offense and 5-13 overall.

What it tells us about Tennessee: the Vols can’t get buckets without ball movement. There’s no one on this team who successfully creates their own shot. That should change next year, though it isn’t always tied to a Rick Barnes offense: the Vols were 188th in this stat his first year in the Kevin Punter show. In the early portion of this season, Lamonte Turner put up numbers that would still rank fourth nationally in assist rate. Vescovi is making progress in his assist-to-turnover ratio, but it’s a big ask for him to even approach what Lamonte was doing for this team early in the season. Still, the Vols can be good here – assisting on 18 of 24 made shots against LSU, 10 of 14 against South Carolina – with an emphasis on simply getting good shots. I’m fine with open threes that don’t go down. Clearly there are few bad shots for Fulkerson in the post. Too often Tennessee gets bogged down in the half-court and is forced to make a bad decision at the end of the shot clock. Get good shots, and trust your defense to take care of the difference.

What’s a good shot when the Vols don’t get quality touches in the post and have to settle for more threes? We need more data on Vescovi, who is now 11-of-22 on the year. Early returns from Yves Pons have cooled: he’s now at 30.2%. Jordan Bowden continues to struggle at 27.8%. By far the brightest spot right now: Josiah James at 20-of-51 (39.2%). He’s been shooting it more in Lamonte’s absence, 12-of-21 (57.1%) in the last five games. It’s clearly not enough to win by itself, but the Vols would be well suited to look and create for the freshman more.

You can’t assume anything in the SEC this year, but the closest thing might be Vanderbilt. The Commodores are 8-8 in Jerry Stackhouse’s first season, and just lost Aaron Nesmith with a stress fracture. It’s a bad blow for their program, who just lost a year of Darius Garland last season. Nesmith’s absence puts even more on Saben Lee, with a host of freshmen behind him.

The Commodores put a scare in Auburn on the road, but without Nesmith lost to Texas A&M in Nashville by 19 and at Arkansas by 20. Other than UNC Asheville and Alabama State, Vanderbilt is the worst defense Tennessee will see all season, by far. The Commodores are 249th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency. They foul a lot, which could help Tennessee get more of their offense heading in that direction. And they’re the worst team in the league overall at 161st in KenPom.

As we know, you assume nothing in Memorial Gym, where the freshly-minted #1 Vols almost went down last season. But it’s the best possible SEC opponent given what’s currently ailing Tennessee.

6:00 PM ET Saturday on the SEC Network.

Go Vols.