Author Archives: Will Shelton

Earlier this month we looked at Tennessee’s win probabilities using ESPN’s FPI and SB Nation’s S&P+. Their formulas assign a win probability for each game (somewhere between 7% against Alabama and 99% against Indiana State); add up those percentages and you’ll get their projection for Tennessee’s regular season wins.

Assigning percentages to each game is a more interesting and more reliable exercise to determine how you think the Vols will do this year; again, it’s one thing to say you think the Vols will go 9-3 with these nine wins and those three losses, but it makes more sense to assign a percentage to each opponent.

We don’t have fancy formulas, but here are our staff picks for Tennessee’s regular season using win probability (each number represents the percentage chance we give Tennessee to win):

	Will	Joel	Brad	Dylan	STAFF AVG
vs Georgia Tech	60%	60%	65%	80%	66%
Indiana State	100%	98%	95%	100%	98%
at Florida	40%	51%	55%	55%	50%
UMass	100%	98%	95%	100%	98%
Georgia	50%	45%	45%	55%	49%
South Carolina	70%	75%	60%	65%	68%
at Alabama	15%	10%	20%	10%	14%
at Kentucky	70%	65%	60%	70%	66%
Southern Miss	95%	90%	90%	100%	94%
at Missouri	75%	70%	70%	75%	73%
LSU	40%	25%	40%	45%	38%
Vanderbilt	75%	70%	65%	90%	75%
WINS	7.90	7.57	7.60	8.45	7.88

Our staff is more or less on board with 8-4; Dylan is particularly more confident in wins over Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt, while Joel is particularly less confident against LSU, but the numbers are fairly close everywhere else.

What about you? Find out below (thanks to Joel for the form wizardry) by selecting the percentage chance you give Tennessee to win each game to see your season projection, and be sure to submit it for our site average we’ll release next week.

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Hey, y’all think about cutting a power T out of them eclipse glasses so it’d be burned onto your retina forever?

…

…uh, yeah, me neither.

Really though, I figure I’ve had enough medical problems anyway. But listen, before you even ask, I’m fine. I know I was in the hospital a long time there, and still nobody believes me. They can call it a coma or an “event” or whatever fancy medical mumbo-jumbo they want. But I’m telling you, boys:  when Jauan caught that ball, the Lord took me straight up to heaven.

Now at the time I thought I had been raptured, so I politely asked the Lord if he could please send me back and maybe hold off on his return at least until we beat Alabama. But the Lord’s ways remain mysterious:  when I woke up in that hospital bed, turns out I hadn’t been raptured and somehow the Vols had lost four games. But I believe God was still looking out for me, because if I’d witnessed us giving up 45 points and 600 yards to Vanderbilt, that would’ve been the end for me anyway. “Shurmur” sounds like the noise I make through clinched teeth so I don’t say the real bad words in front of my wife, and that day I would have Shurmured myself right to death.

So I wake up and discover we’ve hired a new athletic director. Listen, I may not run the Pilot, but I buy my gas there because some percentage of that $2.07 per gallon is going back to the football program. I put money in the offering plate to beat the devil and I pump at Pilot to beat Alabama, and any man that don’t isn’t VFL. So I may not be as high up the ladder as the Haslams, but we’re all in the same food chain and all our voices should be heard.

I heard they used a committee to hire John Currie, who I like because he talksrealfast even if he ain’t Coach Fulmer. But next time there’s a major decision, I’d like to feel that the common man and the common fan have a voice at the table. They put Peyton on that committee, which is a good start, but we need more people we know. People we can trust. People who bleed orange and are tired of feeling anemic for the last ten years. So I’d like to make a few suggestions for additions to the athletic department executive committee:

Jon Gruden – sorry, reflex.

Dolly Parton – Should’ve just hired her to do the job outright last time we had an opening. She might be too busy saving God’s country to help save our athletic department, which I have no doubt she could do. I watched that Coat of Many Christmases so many times I feel like the best way to tell people about Jesus is to tell them about Dolly. Don’t tell me you wouldn’t buy a funnel cake and saltwater taffy at Neyland Stadium. This could be the year for the real thing.

Dave Ramsey – Revenue, son. Would prevent ridiculous buyouts and make sure fans like me can buy a coke and a hot dog at Neyland without dipping into the emergency fund. Frees up everyone else to just worry about football, which hopefully frees up at least one person to think about basketball.

Kevin Nash – Six-time World Champion and VFL. Once punched a head coach, so, you know, maybe he doesn’t chair the committee. Experienced in hostile takeovers. My wife says he’s also in something called Magic Mike, which is apparently not a film about Dave Hart’s predecessor.  

If any of these parties are unable or unwilling, I remain on standby. Come on, Mr. Haslam. I promise to start buying the premium gasoline if you put me in that room.

I get that my credentials may not be so hot, but I’ve been raising funds this off-season by selling these t-shirts (rips open jacket to reveal “THE BEACHES OF DORMADY”; shirt is of such low quality you can see it’s got “GUARANTANIMO BAY” printed on the other side). They’re reversible!

Look, you know the reason we won in ‘98 is because all them boys were so angry about being forgotten when all the ‘97 team went pro right? Same thing this year, son! It don’t matter if it’s QD or JG, he’s basically gonna be Tee Martin all over again. John Kelly is like a combination of Tony Thompson, Travis Stephens, Montario Hardesty, and basically every other back who’s been overlooked but finished strong. I like it when I hear a back runs angry, because that’s typically how I’m watching.

I literally cannot imagine what Jauan Jennings can do to top what he did to Jalen Tabor and the entire state of Georgia. (Author’s note: last year basically was the idiot optimist version of Jauan Jennings. I can’t come up with anything better or less probable than what he already did in real life. I salute you, sir.) Does he have boots made of yellow jackets yet? That dude is my favorite Vol since at least Bill Duff. At least.

Do you know we have Todd Kelly’s kid, Dale Carter’s kid, and Eric Berry’s brother all at the same position?! They call that the “safety”, but ain’t nothing safe about this defense. Except, you know, this year they’re not gonna be safe for the other team. Yeah.

It wouldn’t matter if we’re playing Georgia Tech or the Atlanta By God Falcons in that first game, it’s an automatic W since it ain’t in the Georgia Dome. I’m a little worried about having to face Larry Bird on short rest after that, but I have faith in our coaching staff.

Florida? HA! I’ve spent so many hours watching the replay of the second half it’s essentially my part-time job. They ain’t no good. Then we’ve got UMass, who I swear was still on probation from that Calipari business but whatever.

So I’ve got my list of enemies, and it ain’t nothing new. This year we get to trade a shot at Lane Kiffin for a shot at Ed Orgeron; either way when we win I’m taking my shirt off. Will Muschamp is on that list, who cheated last year by playing a quarterback who was taking driver’s ed while ours was taking global thermonuclear war or spaceship flying or probably both. But no matter what we do, we cannot get a shot at Derek By God Dooley, so we’re gonna have to take it out on Georgia instead, again.

People keep saying we should worry about Kentucky or Missouri, but this ain’t basketball or whatever Missouri is good at. And there’s nothing worse I can say about Vanderbilt than the truth: they’re looking at downsizing to an even smaller stadium and sharing it with soccer. Soccer, boys.

Whether it’s in Tuscaloosa or Atlanta, it still won’t be the same to beat Alabama without Kiffin. But maybe we’ll catch Florida Atlantic in the playoff. Either way, this is the year boys. 15-0, National Champions. And Back-to-Back Champions of Life.

 

The Idiot Optimist’s Guide to:

2016: Dobbs for President

2015: Kool-Aid Light

2014: Do you think it’s possible Butch Jones and Jon Gruden are the same person?

2013: The Kool-Aid tasted like bamboo

2012: I’m pretty sure me and you and six of your friends from the message board could coach this team to a championship.

2011: Last year was Year Zero, and everybody knows zero is not a real number.

2010: If I go down to the Big Orange Caravan and look Derek Dooley in the eye, he’s not going to be hiding behind some sunglasses.

Earlier this week Jimmy Hyams quoted some of Tennessee’s offensive linemen saying they wanted John Kelly to get 2,000 yards this season. Perhaps they’re unaware that no one at Tennessee has ever run for even 1,500 yards in a single season, but hey, aim high!

It’s not fair to Kelly to call his sophomore season a good news/bad news campaign. He is Exhibit A in the, “Just because they were playing behind someone great doesn’t mean they can’t be great,” argument for Team 121. It was no sin to be third team behind Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara in their final seasons in Knoxville. The “bad news” side of the equation is, when he did get his chances, most of Kelly’s productivity came against lesser competition:  only six carries in the first five games plus Alabama, none against Florida or Georgia. Most of his 630 yards last year came against Texas A&M, Nebraska, and the late October-November stretch that didn’t feature a Top 50 defense.

The good news is those 630 yards came on only 98 carries. That’s 6.43 yards per carry. And when you break out the media guide and compare that to what the leading running back has done at Tennessee since 1980, it’s very good news indeed:

Year	Back	Att	Yds	YPC
1993	Charlie Garner	159	1161	7.30
2006	LaMarcus Coker	108	696	6.44
2016	John Kelly	98	630	6.43
1994	James Stewart	170	1028	6.05
1992	Charlie Garner	154	928	6.03
1989	Chuck Webb	209	1236	5.91
1997	Jamal Lewis	232	1364	5.88
1983	Johnnie Jones	191	1116	5.84
1990	Tony Thompson	219	1261	5.76
2004	Gerald Riggs	193	1107	5.74

 

First of all, let’s all tip our cap to Charlie Garner’s 1993 campaign. You can make an argument that the ’93 Vols were Tennessee’s most dangerous team of the decade; put a future Pro Bowler like Garner in the backfield with the Heisman runner-up at quarterback, and you get fireworks.

LaMarcus Coker is an interesting comparison for John Kelly. Coker’s 2006 season came as part of a crowded backfield with Arian Foster and Montario Hardesty, and much of his success came against lesser opponents: 417 of his 696 yards came against Marshall, Memphis, and Vanderbilt; 176 of those yards on two runs. He was dismissed from the team the following season while still competing with Foster and Hardesty. But John Kelly has the lead back role all to himself this fall.

Having historically great numbers against below average competition is no guarantee. It’s what makes Kelly both so intriguing and so difficult to project this fall. As he and the line are chasing numbers, Tennessee’s single season rushing record can be had if he averages 113 yards per game. As the lead back in what should continue to be an up-tempo offense, that’s not out of the question. It’s strange to think about something like that just a year after being so sure we were going to see the career record fall to Jalen Hurd. School records aren’t a fair expectation, but it might not be an exaggeration.

What can we expect from John Kelly this fall? He’ll run hard and his linemen talk like they’ll genuinely enjoy blocking for him. That’s always a good sign. Maybe he’ll settle at solid and some of the Vols’ talented freshmen will get to make some hay as well. But there is at least the potential for something special in Tennessee’s backfield from #4.

That’s a lot of alphabet soup in the title. FPI (Football Power Index) is an ESPN metric; as such you’ll see it a lot on their coverage, in playoff conversations, etc. S&P+ is a metric used by Bill Connelly at SB Nation and Football Outsiders, measuring what it believes to be the four factors most critical to success (efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives) plus turnovers.

Both are useful, among many other ways, in their projected win probabilities which update each week. Bill Connelly released his excellent 2017 Tennessee preview today, which gives us a look at S&P+’s projected odds for Tennessee each week. An FPI projection for Tennessee is also available at ESPN.com.

Before diving into their numbers, think of it this way for your own odds:  what percentage chance would you give Tennessee to win each game?

Add up all those percentages, and you’ll get your projection for Tennessee’s record this year. It’s one thing to say you think the Vols should go a generic 9-3 or 5-7. This way of thinking it through usually involves statements like, “Missouri, we’ll beat them.” The Vols should be favored, no doubt, but there’s a difference in assuming an automatic win (of which there are virtually none in the SEC anymore) and saying you give Tennessee an 85% chance.

The Vols are favored in nine games by both FPI and S&P+. But neither projects the Vols to go 9-3. This is because the percentages on so many games are close enough to 50%, the most likely outcome is the Vols will lose one or two they’re actually favored to win. This is what happens to almost everyone: how many power conference teams who were favored in at least six games never lost to an underdog? Last year, the answer was four:  Georgia Tech, Nebraska, Penn State, and Southern Cal. Saying you think Butch Jones will lose one he shouldn’t is basically saying you think Butch Jones is like most coaches in college football (Jones is 27-6 as a favorite at Tennessee and has covered the spread as a favorite better than anyone other than Missouri in the SEC). Upsets happen.

When you add the percentages, FPI projects the Vols to finish around 8-4; S&P+ projects a finish around 7-5. It’s an interesting neutral perspective. Here’s the comparison with Tennessee’s win probability for each game:

Opponent	FPI	S&P+
vs Georgia Tech	68%	56%
Indiana State	99%	98%
at Florida	38%	30%
UMass	97%	93%
Georgia	51%	51%
South Carolina	76%	66%
at Alabama	14%	7%
at Kentucky	60%	57%
Southern Miss	96%	87%
at Missouri	64%	61%
LSU	47%	29%
Vanderbilt	81%	74%

Note the differences:

• How much of a toss-up is Georgia Tech? S&P+ puts it squarely in that category, giving the Vols a 56% chance to win. FPI is much more bullish on the Vols at 68%; other than the 18-point swing in their LSU projections, this is the biggest difference on the board. Vegas has the Vols as a 3.5 point favorite, so I’d say it qualifies as a toss-up.
• I think S&P+’s odds for Florida are too low. Tennessee has had the better team in this match-up three years in a row, and has recruited as well or better than the Gators in that span. Maybe Florida gets elite quarterback play from Malik Zaire to make this difference; I’m not saying the Vols should be favored, but if they played 10 times I think Tennessee wins more than three.
• Everything about the Georgia game suggests a toss-up. And history is the strongest indicator there:  the last six have been decided by one possession, three of the last four on the final play of the game.
• What is Tennessee’s most difficult game after Alabama, LSU, Florida, and Georgia? FPI says it’s at Kentucky (60%). S&P+ gives the nod to Georgia Tech, but by only a singe percentage point over Kentucky (57%). No one likes the timing of that trip to Lexington the week after Tuscaloosa.

If you blindly assume the Vols will win all the games they’re favored in, you’re probably thinking 9-3 or better. If you blindly assume every game other than Alabama and the non-power-conference games are true toss-ups, you’re probably thinking 7-5 or worse. I think the latter assumption is safer, but the truth is usually in the middle. And in this case, the data can support what I believe will be the majority projection of 8-4.

Earlier today Joel had an informative post using Phil Steele’s injury data from last year. The fact that Tennessee led the nation in starts lost to injury last season shouldn’t surprise any Vol fans. But seeing the data presented in this format does give some additionally helpful perspective:

• Tennessee lost 52 starts to injury last year. Only the Vols and Syracuse (50) lost more than 44.
• The median starts lost last year was around 20. This means Tennessee was more than two-and-a-half times less fortunate than the average team with injury luck last season.
• The Vols did this while facing what Steele ranked in his magazine as the 17th toughest schedule in the nation. Shout out to Syracuse, who lost 50 starters while facing the 2nd toughest schedule in the nation (Clemson, Florida State, and Louisville are all in the ACC Atlantic, plus they drew (and beat) Virginia Tech from the Coastal).

“Injuries are a part of football,” you’ll say. Of course they are. But this is the most helpful metric I’ve seen to show how abnormal Tennessee’s season was last year. Every team deals with injuries; no one but Syracuse dealt with this level of attrition, then had to play that schedule.

Injuries are not an excuse, but they are reality. The same is already true for the 2017 Vols with potential starter Chance Hall out for the year. The start and the finish last year left little room for grace and understanding, and this too is simple reality. But perhaps, if the 2017 Vols are able to do something this year we can all celebrate, we might be able to look back on 2016 with at least a little more understanding.

With a more manageable rhythm to the schedule, fewer expectations carrying a decade’s worth of weight, and significantly better odds on the injury front, 2017 should have a chance to be a healthier experience in more ways than one.

The Vols are ranked in the preseason coaches’ poll for the third year in a row, just sliding in at #24. But the more relevant note for Tennessee could be the positioning of the other SEC teams in the poll.

The initial poll has Alabama in the top spot, then four SEC teams between 12-16 (LSU, Auburn, Georgia, Florida). Meanwhile the Big Ten has four teams in the Top 10. Arguments over conference supremacy aren’t settled in the preseason poll. But the trend in both leagues does not project well for the SEC when it comes to bowl selections.

The conversation on which league is better usually centers on who’s at the top. But last year there was a significant difference in who’s at the bottom. In S&P+, the SEC’s worst team in 2016 was South Carolina at 79th. The Gamecocks were 6-7. Meanwhile the Big Ten had four teams – 28.5% of the conference – finish worse than that (Maryland 87th, Illinois 95th, Purdue 105th, Rutgers 114th). Illinois and Purdue were 3-9 (as was Michigan State); Rutgers was 2-10.

Being a top-heavy league doesn’t necessarily mean you’re a better league. But it does give your teams a much better chance to make the New Year’s Six.

This year the College Football Playoff semifinals are in New Orleans and Pasadena, which takes almost all the automatic bids to New Year’s Six games off the table. Last year Alabama made the playoff, but the Sugar Bowl was required to take the next best SEC team; thus Auburn got in at 8-4 (and Tennessee would have gotten in at 9-3 had they beaten Vanderbilt). But with the Sugar Bowl in the playoff, only the SEC Champion is required to be taken…and if that champion is Alabama, as most project, and the Tide are in the playoff, the league could be shut out of the New Year’s Six bowls entirely.

And if that sounds drastic? It’s exactly what will happen if the final College Football Playoff poll looks like the preseason coaches’ poll.

You would have something like this:

• Sugar Bowl Semifinal: #1 Alabama vs #4 Southern Cal
• Rose Bowl Semifinal:  #2 Ohio State vs #3 Florida State
• Orange Bowl:  #5 Clemson vs #6 Penn State
• Fiesta Bowl:  #7 Washington vs #9 Michigan
• Cotton Bowl:  #8 Oklahoma vs #10 Wisconsin
• Peach Bowl: #11 Oklahoma State vs #21 South Florida (group of five)

Four Big Ten teams in the playoff/New Year’s Six. And only Alabama from the SEC. This would leave the rest of the league scrambling for the Citrus Bowl, then a bunch of 8-4 again in the SEC’s Group of Six (Belk, Liberty, Music City, Outback, Taxslayer, Texas).

The last time the semifinals were in the Sugar Bowl in 2014, the SEC put both Ole Miss and Mississippi State in the New Year’s Six as at-large selections. This put Missouri, the league’s fourth-highest-ranked team, in the Citrus Bowl. But the last two years, the Sugar Bowl has had to go outside the Top 11 (#12 Ole Miss in 2015, #14 Auburn in 2016) to fill its automatic bid. If that happens again this year, the league could get shut out of the New Year’s Six.

“Four Big Ten teams in the Top 10 will never happen,” you say? They got four in the top eight last year. While Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State continue to round-robin each other, Wisconsin (presumably) gets the winner in the conference title game; this year they face only Michigan of those three in the regular season. Meanwhile all four get at least two games with the league’s worst with Maryland and Rutgers in the east division and Illinois and Purdue in the west.

The SEC, on the other hand, has a much higher floor (which helps to prevent a higher ceiling). There are no free wins; Tennessee can attest to that. We continue to point out that while Alabama is 40-4 the last three years, look at the next eight SEC teams:

2014-2016	W	L
Georgia	28	11
LSU	25	12
Florida	26	13
Mississippi State	25	14
Tennessee	25	14
Ole Miss	24	14
Texas A&M	24	15
Auburn	23	16

The nature of the beast has turned cannibalistic:  everyone is 8-4 and unhappy. And this year we might feel it even more potently come bowl season:  if the SEC doesn’t get a second team in the New Year’s Six, one of these teams could be headed to the Birmingham Bowl.

In this year especially with the Sugar and Rose out of play, the New Year’s Six will truly take the next best/highest-ranked teams in college football. Will the second-best team in the SEC have a clean enough record to make it?

This time of year you can usually tell who Tennessee’s best and/or most popular players are going to be not by fall camp talking points, but jersey sales. I’d expect to see plenty of #15’s on display this fall, and maybe a #12 or #2 if a front-runner emerges in the quarterback battle.

To my knowledge I’ve never seen an offensive lineman’s jersey for sale, for the Vols or for anyone. It is the least sexy and least marketable position group on the field. But, at Tennessee and likely far beyond, you cannot do great things without a great offensive line.

For Team 121, if you were ranking the units? The offensive line would be at the top. It doesn’t generate much noise in August. But when the line leads the way, it can generate something far more memorable in September.

Here are the starting offensive lines (pulled from Tennessee’s media guide, listed from LT to RT) for each of Tennessee’s most memorable teams of the last 30 years. You’ll notice a trend.

1989 SEC Champions:  Charles McRae, Tom Myslinski, John Fisher, Eric Still, Antone Davis

1990 SEC Champions:  McRae, Myslinski, Fisher, Doug Baird, Davis

Consider the overall talent on these two teams: in the 1990-1992 NFL Drafts, Tennessee had 11 players selected in the first three rounds. Those names include future Pro Bowl selections Dale Carter and Carl Pickens, first round selections like Alvin Harper and Chris Mims, and absolute program legends like Reggie Cobb and Chuck Webb. But of those 11 in the first three rounds in this three year span, the two who were drafted highest were offensive tackles Charles McRae and Antone Davis, going 7th and 8th in the 1991 NFL Draft. Why were Andy Kelly and the Cobb-Webb attack so dominant? These boys up front didn’t hurt.

1995 #2 Coaches’ Poll:  Jason Layman, Trey Peterson, Jeff Smith, Bubba Miller, Robert Poole

Smith and Miller had started since they were freshmen, Layman since he was a sophomore. They joined Trey Peterson to make for four seniors up front along with junior Robert Poole (plus tight end Scott Pfeiffer). Layman, Miller, and Smith all earned first-team All-SEC honors in 1995, and Layman was a second round draft pick. If you compare the ’95 and ’96 offenses, the quarterback and skill positions are identical (Manning, Graham, Kent, Nash). But in conference play the ’95 squad averaged an absurd 38.9 points per game, compared to a merely really good 34.4 in ’96. The Vols rebuilt the offensive line with youth in 1996, then this happened:

1997 SEC Champions: Chad Clifton, Spencer Riley, Trey Teague, Mercedes Hamilton, Cosey Coleman

1998 BCS Champions: Clifton, Hamilton, Riley, Coleman, Jarvis Reado

1999 BCS at-large: Clifton, Fred Weary, Riley, Coleman, Josh Tucker

Only a select group started all three seasons in Tennessee’s most successful three-year run:  Jamal Lewis, Raynoch Thompson, Dwayne Goodrich, and three offensive linemen:  Chad Clifton, Spencer Riley, and Cosey Coleman. This group lost away from home to #2 Florida, #2 Nebraska, #4 Florida, Clint Stoerner’s karma, and #3 Nebraska. They beat everyone else, winning two SEC titles and the 1998 national championship. Trey Teague earned first-team All-SEC in 1997; Cosey Coleman did that twice in ’98 and ’99 with All-American honors to boot in ’99. He played seven years in the NFL and won a Super Bowl ring with Tampa Bay. But I’d put Chad Clifton’s career up against any offensive tackle:  in college and the NFL he protected the blind sides of Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, and Tee Martin en route to a national championship.

2001 SEC East Champions: Reggie Coleman, Fred Weary, Scott Wells, Jason Respert, Will Ofenheusle

Weary was still around two years later and, other than Cosey Coleman, is the highest-drafted offensive guard in program history. No season’s losses were more fluky or painful than 2001’s, but this line had little to do with them. They did have a hand in the season’s biggest win:  Travis Stephens and Jabari Davis get remembered, but this group took on one of Florida’s most talented teams and paved the way for them. I was a student at UT at the time, and Will Ofenheusle might still be the biggest person I’ve seen up close.

2004 SEC East Champions: Michael Munoz, Rob Smith, Jason Respert, Cody Douglas, Arron Sears

True freshmen quarterbacks need friends, and there’s no better friend than a strong offensive line. In the 2004 Florida game they helped produce one of my favorite drives of all time:  12 plays, 80 yards, four different ball carriers, all runs for Tennessee’s first touchdown. Sears would go on to be a second round draft pick, and though the NFL never worked out for Munoz and Respert, they were two of Phillip Fulmer’s biggest prizes in recruiting:  Munoz is the fifth-highest rated prospect the Vols signed since 2000, Respert 12th. Munoz was a first-team All-American in 2004; knee injuries cost him on draft day.

2007 SEC East Champions: Eric Young, Anthony Parker, Josh McNeil, Chris Scott, Ramon Foster

Ramon Foster has been so successful for the Steelers for so long, I’d forgotten he was an undrafted free agent. The up-and-down 2007 Vols had issues with youth on defense, surrendering 145 points in three regular season losses. But this line was spectacular with David Cutcliffe at the controls:  they surrendered a national-best four sacks all year on 538 passing attempts, helping Erik Ainge turn unheralded receivers Lucas Taylor and Austin Rogers into 1,000 yard threats.

What does this mean for 2017? There is, of course, no guarantee. A great offensive line can’t do it by themselves (see:  2013) and skill position injuries can cost the most talented groups (see:  2002). But recent history shows every time the Vols have a big year, it comes behind a talented, veteran offensive line.

There’s a lot we cannot say for sure about Team 121. But a talented, veteran offensive line – give or take a five-star freshman – could lead the way.  And when that happens at Tennessee, big things tend to follow.

 

Today Butch Jones will meet the press and tomorrow the Vols open fall camp. On Tuesday, August arrives. We’re in the last stages of the off-season, but the shadows of last year are stubborn.

This week John Adams polled a number of local media on how many games Jones needs to win this fall to be absolutely certain of another year in Knoxville. The consensus seemed to be that, if you’re looking for absolute certainty, Jones needed to go 9-3.

That might be true. But it shouldn’t be.

I’m sure you already know that 9-3 would be Tennessee’s best regular season since 2007. But I’m not sure we as fans know it well enough to not equate what would be the best season in Knoxville in ten years with the bar of safety for the head coach.

The “how many wins for safety” question is a valid one after last year’s disappointing end. But if our answer causes us to look at a 9-3 season as something less than progress in 2017, we should reconsider.

To be clear:  including the bowl game, any path to 10 wins for this team is, by definition, progress. If the Vols go 9-3 and win any bowl. If the Vols go 10-2 and lose any bowl. Or if the Vols go 10-2, lose in Atlanta, then lose any bowl. Any of those results should be celebrated more than tolerated.

If after the bowl the Vols finish at 9-4 again (remember, a 9-3 regular season would have been good enough for the Sugar Bowl last year), there will be some who will point to three straight years of the same result and wonder if it will ever get any better. And, as pointed out in Adams’ story, a year like that always makes one ask, “How did they get there?” Not all 9-4’s are created equal.

But not all Tennessee teams are created equal either. A 9-3 regular season would have been, by definition, progress for last year’s team too. But when you start the year in the Top 10, 9-3 isn’t your goal. But this year’s team won’t be starting in the Top 10 and won’t be on some Top 25 ballots. There is plenty of talent on the roster. But much of it will have to prove itself.

What will Vegas say about this year’s team? The 2015 Vols went 9-4, losing twice as a narrow favorite (Florida at -1, Arkansas at -5.5) and beating Georgia as a +2.5 underdog. The 2016 Vols went 9-4 but, as you know, lost as a touchdown favorite at Vanderbilt and a two touchdown favorite at South Carolina.

It’s early, but 2017 odds from Golden Nugget have the Vols as a touchdown-plus underdog against Florida, Alabama, and LSU and a one-point favorite against Georgia. It’s entirely possible the Vols could be underdogs in all four of those games.

All of this to say:  2017’s 8-4 could easily and quantifiably be more impressive than 2016’s and/or 2015’s (depending on margin of defeat). But if the Vols do go 8-4, there will be some who want Jones gone mostly because they’re still upset about last year’s 8-4.

And rightfully upset about last year’s 8-4. But if that’s how you’d feel about this year’s 8-4, you’re probably not going to feel a whole lot better about 9-3.

At Tennessee, 9-3 will never be enough in the long run. It wouldn’t have been enough for some of us last year, and maybe that’s fair with six NFL draft picks and a 5-0 start. But in this year, on the heels of so many consecutive years of less? 9-3 should qualify as enough:  to not just keep the coach safe, but – especially if it’s followed up with a bowl victory – to call it a step in the right direction and tip our caps.

College football is fun. It comes for 13 weeks, then a bowl, then it disappears for eight months. I continue to be of the belief that you don’t want to miss any opportunity to enjoy it.

In the month to come, most will pick this team to finish somewhere between 7-5 and 9-3. I’d bet the majority will land on the ol’ 8-4. There will be plenty of words to follow – in August – about if that result would be enough to save Butch.

My thought? If such a conversation is actually, realistically necessary at the end of this year, it will be painfully obvious. But this team and its coaches will have every opportunity to do something far better than just avoiding that pain.

It’s getting close to football time in Tennessee. Don’t forget to enjoy it.

Tennessee is replacing its starting quarterback, tailback, and number one wide receiver. An ideal combination this is not, especially when all of them went in the NFL Draft. We won’t know what we’re getting in the trade from Josh Dobbs to Quinten Dormady and/or Jarrett Guarantano until we see it. But the best way to help a new quarterback is to get productive play from your starting tailback and number one wide receiver.

We know the names will be John Kelly and Jauan Jennings. The latter had the two most satisfying plays of the 2016 season. The former actually out-gained both Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara last season on fewer carries than both of them (what would the odds have been on that stat this time last year?). Granted, Kelly had no meaningful carries against Virginia Tech, Florida, Georgia, or Alabama. But he still averaged 6.43 yards per carry on the year, good for 43rd nationally.

Kelly’s productivity and a deep offensive line make the running game a lesser concern. I think the biggest question with Kelly actually ties directly into the questions about the passing game.

Tennessee has thrown to their running backs more than any team in the SEC in each of the last two years. In 2015 it was 21% of the time, and the Vols almost hit that number again last year (individual target rates from Football Study Hall):

Team	RB Target Rate
Tennessee	20.6%
LSU	16.3%
Florida	14.9%
South Carolina	13.1%
Auburn	12.8%
Vanderbilt	11.9%
Georgia	10.3%
Alabama	10.2%
Arkansas	9.1%
Texas A&M	9.0%
Ole Miss	8.4%
Mississippi State	8.1%
Kentucky	7.1%
Missouri	4.0%

When the percentage was so high in 2015, we wondered if it represented the lack of a true number one receiver and/or downfield threat, or perhaps Mike DeBord’s conservative fingerprints on Josh Dobbs. But last year all those options faded:  Josh Malone was a clear number one, the Vols hit 50 20+ yard passes, and Dobbs became the highest drafted Vol quarterback that wasn’t Manning or Shuler.

But still, Tennessee went to their backs 20.6% of the time, far more than any other SEC team. So now the question shifts:  were these numbers a byproduct of having Alvin Kamara on the roster, or will this still be a focal part of Butch Jones’ offense with a new quarterback and a new coordinator?

Kamara was the target on 12.6% of Dobbs’ passes in 2015 and 14.3% last year. Both numbers led the SEC among running backs. Can John Kelly fill at least one of those shoes? He didn’t get much opportunity to do so last year:  he caught only six passes and no more than one in any game.

If the running back isn’t going to be a focal point of the passing game, where will those targets go?

Here’s how Tennessee’s passes were distributed last season:

Player	Target Rate
Malone	20.7%
Jennings	17.4%
Kamara	14.3%
Croom	8.8%
Wolf	8.8%
J. Smith	8.3%
Byrd	6.9%
Hurd	4.1%
P. Williams	3.3%
B. Johnson	2.5%
J. Kelly	2.2%

Jennings made a big leap last year after being targeted just 6.2% of the time in 2015. As he becomes the new number one, Tennessee will need a number two to emerge with or without a strong contribution out of the backfield. And if it’s without, they’ll need a number three.

We’ve seen Tennessee’s passing game adapt under Jones in the past when it comes to top of the statistical leaderboard: in 2014 Pig Howard was the number one option out of the slot (54 catches for 618 yards), but Jalen Hurd was still third on the team in receptions with 35. Same for Rajion Neal in 2013, third on the team with 27 catches. Whether Worley or Dobbs, Bajakian or DeBord, throwing to the backs has been high on Butch’s priority list.

I actually think John Kelly will do quite well in this regard when given the chance. The bigger question may be for Ty Chandler or Carlin Fils-aime; history suggests whoever gets the number two reps is still going to get plenty of opportunities coming out of the backfield as well.

Maybe part of playing a new quarterback will include going downfield even more and not having to rely so much on the running backs in the passing game. It’ll be telling to watch early in the season to see how often the Vols look their way. Either way and especially if Tennessee goes downfield more, they’ll need a number two wide receiver to step up to fill in the gap.