Author Archives: Will Shelton

How did Tennessee’s performance against Georgia Tech affect our outlook on the rest of the season? In this week’s win probability (and you can still fill in your own at the bottom of that post), our readers nudge the Vols to the right side of eight wins:

Opponent	Win Probability
Georgia Tech	100.0%
Indiana State	99.1%
at Florida	57.5%
UMass	98.1%
Georgia	51.4%
South Carolina	64.7%
at Alabama	12.4%
at Kentucky	70.0%
Southern Miss	87.9%
at Missouri	71.8%
LSU	33.8%
Vanderbilt	69.1%
WINS	8.16

Most noteworthy here:  our readers now find Florida a more likely victory than Georgia. But the rest of the numbers show this has more to do with what the Gators did than what we saw from the Vols.

Again, it’s difficult to make meaningful observations about the rest of the season from a week one date with the triple option. The good news: it’s Indiana State this Saturday, which means instead of going from a grueling overtime opener to the spectacle of Bristol like last year, the Vols get a much-needed visit from an FCS school with a losing record. The bad news: I’m not sure how much we’re going to learn this week either.

What is most exciting in the week two syllabus?

John Kelly, Marquez Callaway, Ethan Wolf, and…?

When Jauan Jennings went down, Quinten Dormady and Tennessee’s passing game went three places. To no surprise in the Butch Jones offense, the running back played a major role: John Kelly led the team with five receptions. Marquez Callaway was a revelation with 115 yards and two scores. And Ethan Wolf was inches away from what would have been his most productive day in a Tennessee uniform.

Will we see anyone begin to emerge behind those three? Brandon Johnson caught three passes but for only 14 yards underneath against the Yellow Jackets. Josh Palmer started but finished with just one catch. Does Josh Smith play? Can Tyler Byrd get on the same page with the quarterback(s)? Do we see more from some of the backups? The more options the Gators have to prepare for, the better.

How do the Vols rotate on defense?

Plenty of conversation in this short week has emerged around the number of snaps some of Tennessee’s defenders played. The Vols had five of the nation’s Top 50 defenders in total tackles in week one. This is in part because Georgia Tech had 96 offensive snaps in a double overtime game. But it’s also because, despite this, the Vols didn’t really rotate a lot of defenders.

Ten of UT’s starting eleven defenders had at least six tackles; Justin Martin was the odd man out. But behind the starters, no one recorded more than three total tackles. 116 of Tennessee’s 131 total tackles came from those ten players.

The drop-off is even more striking by position:

• Linebacker:  Bituli, Jumper, & McDowell 54 combined tackles; Elliott Berry 1, Quart’e Sapp 1
• Defensive End:  Kongbo & Taylor 19 combined tackles; Kyle Phillips 2
• Safety:  Abernathy & Warrior 22 combined tackles; Todd Kelly Jr. 3

The numbers would have been striking at defensive tackle as well had Kendal Vickers not gone out with an injury. Against 96 plays and 40+ minutes of possession, the Vols rolled with their starters all night long.

The million dollar question here:  was that because the coaches didn’t trust any of the backups against Georgia Tech’s offense, or don’t trust the backups period?

They’ll trust them plenty against Indiana State, and those big names up there could use the rest. We won’t know how deep Bob Shoop and Butch Jones’ trust goes until Gainesville. But seeing who the fourth options are at defensive end, defensive tackle, and safety will be of note, and we’ll get that information this Saturday.

We all know the injury narrative from last season. I’d like to know if guys like Kyle Phillips, Quart’e Sapp, Alexis Johnson, and any number of freshmen can help this team before they have to help this team.

Resting Heart Rate

Months ago you could already see how much healthier Tennessee’s schedule was going to be this year. But I have felt it this week, and you probably have too. We got so used to our hearts beating at 150 bpm every week last fall, we bounced right back to it against Georgia Tech like an old friend who is trying to kill you. But thanks to no Bristol and no Florida-Georgia-A&M-Bama gauntlet this year, we can breathe a little deeper between Saturdays. We’ll get to the Gators. But first, man, we need some Indiana State.

So I tried lying to myself all week, about how this game wouldn’t really matter. If Georgia Tech’s unique offense got the best of Tennessee’s Kirkland-less defense, we couldn’t draw too many conclusions. If Tennessee’s offense looked great against an uncelebrated Yellow Jacket defense, we couldn’t get too excited. No matter what happened, our chances in the SEC East race and the season’s narrative would be largely unaffected.

That was a stupid thing to believe.

The Defensive Numbers in Context

There is a helplessness that can set in when playing an offense like Georgia Tech’s. It reminded me a little of our 1990’s games against Nebraska; even with less talent and lower stakes, when that offense is humming a two-possession lead feels like 20. And you can try to talk yourself into whatever you want, but when the ball is kicked in week one the stakes are always high because they are carrying an entire off-season on their shoulders. In Tennessee’s case, an off-season plus some leftovers from 2016.

So it is comforting the day after to realize that while Georgia Tech did run for 535 yards, the most a Tennessee defense has ever allowed, they also did so on 86 carries. Their 6.22 yards per carry are not something we want to try to reproduce, but it’s also not as bad as what Tennessee’s defense surrendered to Texas A&M (7.06), Alabama (8.52), Kentucky (8.05), or Missouri (6.27) last year. GT’s 6.82 yards per play won’t lead us to a successful season if it shows up in the box score every week, but the Vols allowed more than seven yards per play to A&M, Alabama, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt last year. It was by no means success, but I might wait to see what this defense does against the offenses it’ll see the rest of the year before passing judgment on Bob Shoop’s 2017.

Third Down For Less

It was not, of course, comforting in the moment last night. Listening to cries of “STOP THEM!” was like watching your undersized team get dominated on the boards and all you can do is yell “BOX OUT!” Adding to the discomfort:  Tennessee’s offense got off to a not-great start. The first half went like this:  punt, three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out, an eight-play, 46-yard touchdown drive, and a turnover on downs featuring sub-par clock management. Then a three-and-out to open the second half, at which point Georgia Tech ran the third quarter clock down to 3:14 with a 21-7 lead before missing a 47-yard field goal.

The game got a lot more fun after that. A sure path to no fun:  Tennessee’s opening drives featured 3rd-and-12, 3rd-and-8, 3rd-and-10, and 3rd-and-10. But after that, the Vols saw no worse than 3rd-and-7 the rest of the night with one exception:  the 3rd-and-9 dump-off to John Kelly that went for 10, two plays before Marquez Callaway’s 50-yard touchdown.

Quinten Dormady might turn into something really special; right now the Vols just need him to be something good. Last year the Vols could count on a veteran quarterback to get them out of trouble on third down with both his arms and his legs. This year the Vols have to help Dormady get out of trouble on third down by not getting in trouble on first and second down. It certainly made a tremendous difference in the second half last night.

Let Team 121 Be Team 121

I was in the stands last night and didn’t even know there was a trash can on the sideline until I saw it this morning. If the players like it – context clues suggest they do – perhaps Butch Jones and this bunch embrace a bit of them against the world? People making fun of something else the coach does? Bring it on. You don’t like the trash can? Maybe next week there are two of them. If you’re going to do the trash can, own the trash can.

This team will need to rally around each other, and they got plenty of practice last night. Not only has Tennessee lost its biggest names and faces from last season, it will now be without Darrin Kirkland Jr. and Jauan Jennings all year. It’s helpful to remember that, while Tennessee’s injury luck has been astoundingly bad, the Vols did beat Florida and Georgia and should have beaten Texas A&M without Kirkland, Cam Sutton, and Jalen Reeves-Maybin last fall. It wasn’t the quality of injuries that did the Vols in last fall; the defense’s shutdown performance against the Gators in the second half came on the shoulders of guys like Colton Jumper. No program is going to handle 2016’s quantity of injuries well. But for now, while losing Kirkland and Jennings in no way will make Tennessee better, there is plenty of talent to meet this new opportunity. Daniel Bituli and Marquez Callaway are Exhibits A and B. We’ll need more, but it was a great opening response.

The drama was similar, but the names and faces last night were new…and the Vols still got it done. It’s a long year with the entirety of conference play before us…but this offense should have earned plenty of confidence in the second half, and the defense will have a chance to do the same against traditional offenses. Team 121 will face plenty of adversity. But if they learned how to handle it better than Team 120, they’ll have a chance to have a more successful season. And in that department, last night was a really good start.

Last year Tennessee got its chance to make the first impression of the college football season. It was not a good one:  the Vols were lethargic and lucky to escape against 20-point underdog Appalachian State, and it cost Tennessee nine spots in the polls. The drop was the second largest in the history of the AP poll for a team that actually won its game. While the events of week one would be quickly overwhelmed by the following four Saturdays, it took all of those events – beating Virginia Tech by three scores at Bristol, scoring 38 unanswered points to beat Florida, and escaping via hail mary in Athens – just to get Tennessee back to its original starting position at #9 in the polls.

The lesson:  if you’re going to play on a national stage in week one, you’d better play well.

The national stage is something we shouldn’t take for granted, not yet. Perhaps the Vols were still warming up to it last season; I know the experience was a long time gone for fans as well. Consider this:  from 2009-2014, the Vols played in the 3:30 CBS game just ten times. Four of those times the occasion was the number one team in the nation on the other sideline. In those six years the Vols played Florida four times and Georgia, LSU, and even Alabama just twice each on CBS at 3:30.

Most of our good and/or relevant moments in that span, like Kiffin and Crompton’s shocking takedown of Georgia? SEC Network. 2010 visit from Oregon? ESPN2. Friday night opener in 2012 against NC State? ESPNU. Should-have-could-have beaten Florida in 2014? SEC Network.

Aside from those ten games, I’d throw in College GameDay’s visit for the 2012 Florida game (on ESPN) and the 2014 trip to Oklahoma in the 8:00 PM ABC primetime spot as Tennessee’s only blips on the national radar. A dozen appearances on the national stage in six years. A dozen losses.

But in the last two years, the Vols have played the 3:30 CBS game seven times, and won three of them. Plus GameDay at Bristol in the 8:00 PM ABC slot, and I’d count the season opener with Appalachian State, and Tennessee won both of those. In 2015 and 2016, the Vols have been on the national stage nine times, and won five.

And they’ll be back tonight.

The stage isn’t success by itself, not like it’s been at places like Indiana this week. We’re Tennessee, even if sometimes we feel like we’re still trying to be Tennessee again. But we’re also Tennessee right now:  still looking for a better year than the one Phillip Fulmer gave us a decade ago, still hopeful this one might be it. The Vols were very much in the SEC East race well before Florida looked like that and Jacob Eason got hurt. That part won’t change no matter what happens tonight. But we shouldn’t take the stage for granted.

The stage is exactly why you play this game. Conventional wisdom suggests you avoid having to prepare for Georgia Tech. But the stage on this night in this stadium is worth the risk.

Tennessee will walk into downtown Atlanta’s new spaceship at the end of a long off-season when what Butch Jones said generated more conversation than what he did. The champions of life/five-star heart stuff was poorly timed, but the head coach’s actions were those of a man who was plenty disappointed by what happened last year.

The Vols will face Georgia Tech with a new offensive coordinator, new strength and conditioning coach, and new position coaches at quarterback, wide receiver, offensive line, defensive line, and in the secondary. It is undeniable change; tonight we’ll start learning if it’s change we can believe in.

We’ve spent more than a year now on our podcasts talking about how Butch Jones is a tweaker:  incremental changes over the long haul while hoping you don’t break what didn’t need fixing. This is another way to look at all the off-season changes, as the offensive coordinator and offensive line coach were in-house promotions. But Jones also learned for the first time last year what it’s like to be the head coach of a team with those Top 10 expectations.

As we’ve tracked the progress of this program, it’s noteworthy to track the growth of its head coach as well. Just as Tennessee has grown from an o-fer on the national stage to regular appearances and regular victories, so too might Butch Jones be evolving as a coach. What he says is less important than what he does. And whatever has or hasn’t been said about this team and these players, especially in comparison to their immediate predecessors, won’t matter at all compared to what they have a chance to do, starting tonight.

One year after a bad first impression on the national stage was the opening act for an unsatisfying season, Tennessee gets to make the last impression of college football’s opening weekend. Value the stage. Value the moment. Value the opportunity.

Go Vols.

 

There is so much that is unique to playing Georgia Tech, it may be hard to fully believe a lot of what we see on Monday night. Whether Bob Shoop’s defense plays well or plays poorly, you’ll need a couple weeks of seeing them against more traditional offenses to really gauge their overall performance. The Vols are likely to play combinations at linebacker and in the secondary we may not see again all season.

On offense we’re obviously going to learn about the quarterback(s), and plenty of ink will be rightfully spilled on that. But beyond Dormady and Guarantano, what can we learn against Georgia Tech that will be telling for the rest of the non-triple-option season?

Distribution of Carries

John Kelly is a known factor, though both his ridiculous average per carry and the fact most of his carries came against lesser competition last year make us a little unsure where to set the bar for him. But what will be most educational about Tennessee’s running game is what happens behind him.

Carlin Fils-aime was listed second on the depth chart this week, but true freshman Ty Chandler has led the way in preseason buzz. I’m curious to see not just who gets the second team reps, but how many carries the Vols put in their hands.

Throw out last season’s weirdness with Kamara hurt and the whole Jalen Hurd fiasco. If we look at Butch’s first three years with relatively healthy RB’s, how were the carries distributed between the first and second team running backs?

• 2015:  Jalen Hurd 277 carries, Alvin Kamara 107 (72%/28%)
• 2014:  Jalen Hurd 190 carries, Marlin Lane 86 (69%/31%)
• 2013:  Rajion Neal 215 carries, Marlin Lane 101 (68%/32%)

In Butch’s tenure, only Jalen Hurd in 2015 (21.3) has averaged more than 18 carries per game. Are the Vols going to give John Kelly that kind of load? Even if they do, there should be 7-10 carries to go to the backup(s) if history holds. Will Ty Chandler get all of those, or will CFA get his chance as well?

Does this team have a number two wide receiver?

Not counting Ethan Wolf or John Kelly?

Maybe Josh Smith would have been this answer, and he might still play even after a shoulder injury scare in fall camp. But after Jauan Jennings, Tennessee’s depth chart at wide receiver is five flavors of OR. Smith, Tyler Byrd, and Latrell Williams are battling it out in the slot. Meanwhile true freshman Josh Palmer – a three-star Canadian import who was committed to Syracuse three weeks before signing day – is one of the ORs on the outside opposite Jennings, alongside Brandon Johnson.

Perhaps the Vols found a diamond in the Ontario rough. Perhaps his inclusion is more of an indictment on the other guys on the roster, especially those who have been here longer than a few months. Either way, with a new quarterback and new offensive coordinator, will Palmer or any one of these other guys step up Monday night? Or will OR be a multi-game starter at wide receiver?

Earlier this month we showed you Tennessee’s projected record using win probability with ESPN’s FPI and SB Nation’s S&P+. Add up the percentage chance they give the Vols to win each game, and you’ll get their projection for Tennessee’s regular season win total. Then our staff made their picks using win probability, and we gave you a chance to do the same. We’ve added up all the responses:  here are your projections for the Vols this year:

Opponent	Win Probability
vs Georgia Tech	64.92
Indiana State	98.55
at Florida	46.78
UMass	98.24
Georgia	51.33
South Carolina	68.63
at Alabama	15.31
at Kentucky	68.63
Southern Miss	89.98
at Missouri	73.43
LSU	43.63
Vanderbilt	74.37
WINS	7.94

Our reader projection is in near-full agreement with ESPN’s FPI projection of 7.91, and is an unsurprising consensus expectation in taking the pulse of the fanbase. 8-4 appears to be this year’s bar with 7-5 a hair more likely than 9-3, but neither should shock.

The game-by-game percentages are interesting in a couple of places. Our readers give the Vols a 65% chance on Monday night, but there’s not much difference in how fans view this game and the South Carolina & Kentucky contests later in the year. The odds go just above 50% against Georgia and just below at Florida, and I wonder how much home field advantage has to do with that. And while most don’t give the Vols a significant chance at Alabama, most do with LSU. Eight of Tennessee’s 12 games fall somewhere between 44-74% in our win probability. That’s a lot of potentially close calls, and should make for another exciting season.

You can still use our form to insert your own percentages and find your own projection for Tennessee’s win total.

Earlier this month we looked at Tennessee’s win probabilities using ESPN’s FPI and SB Nation’s S&P+. Their formulas assign a win probability for each game (somewhere between 7% against Alabama and 99% against Indiana State); add up those percentages and you’ll get their projection for Tennessee’s regular season wins.

Assigning percentages to each game is a more interesting and more reliable exercise to determine how you think the Vols will do this year; again, it’s one thing to say you think the Vols will go 9-3 with these nine wins and those three losses, but it makes more sense to assign a percentage to each opponent.

We don’t have fancy formulas, but here are our staff picks for Tennessee’s regular season using win probability (each number represents the percentage chance we give Tennessee to win):

	Will	Joel	Brad	Dylan	STAFF AVG
vs Georgia Tech	60%	60%	65%	80%	66%
Indiana State	100%	98%	95%	100%	98%
at Florida	40%	51%	55%	55%	50%
UMass	100%	98%	95%	100%	98%
Georgia	50%	45%	45%	55%	49%
South Carolina	70%	75%	60%	65%	68%
at Alabama	15%	10%	20%	10%	14%
at Kentucky	70%	65%	60%	70%	66%
Southern Miss	95%	90%	90%	100%	94%
at Missouri	75%	70%	70%	75%	73%
LSU	40%	25%	40%	45%	38%
Vanderbilt	75%	70%	65%	90%	75%
WINS	7.90	7.57	7.60	8.45	7.88

Our staff is more or less on board with 8-4; Dylan is particularly more confident in wins over Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt, while Joel is particularly less confident against LSU, but the numbers are fairly close everywhere else.

What about you? Find out below (thanks to Joel for the form wizardry) by selecting the percentage chance you give Tennessee to win each game to see your season projection, and be sure to submit it for our site average we’ll release next week.

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Hey, y’all think about cutting a power T out of them eclipse glasses so it’d be burned onto your retina forever?

…

…uh, yeah, me neither.

Really though, I figure I’ve had enough medical problems anyway. But listen, before you even ask, I’m fine. I know I was in the hospital a long time there, and still nobody believes me. They can call it a coma or an “event” or whatever fancy medical mumbo-jumbo they want. But I’m telling you, boys:  when Jauan caught that ball, the Lord took me straight up to heaven.

Now at the time I thought I had been raptured, so I politely asked the Lord if he could please send me back and maybe hold off on his return at least until we beat Alabama. But the Lord’s ways remain mysterious:  when I woke up in that hospital bed, turns out I hadn’t been raptured and somehow the Vols had lost four games. But I believe God was still looking out for me, because if I’d witnessed us giving up 45 points and 600 yards to Vanderbilt, that would’ve been the end for me anyway. “Shurmur” sounds like the noise I make through clinched teeth so I don’t say the real bad words in front of my wife, and that day I would have Shurmured myself right to death.

So I wake up and discover we’ve hired a new athletic director. Listen, I may not run the Pilot, but I buy my gas there because some percentage of that $2.07 per gallon is going back to the football program. I put money in the offering plate to beat the devil and I pump at Pilot to beat Alabama, and any man that don’t isn’t VFL. So I may not be as high up the ladder as the Haslams, but we’re all in the same food chain and all our voices should be heard.

I heard they used a committee to hire John Currie, who I like because he talksrealfast even if he ain’t Coach Fulmer. But next time there’s a major decision, I’d like to feel that the common man and the common fan have a voice at the table. They put Peyton on that committee, which is a good start, but we need more people we know. People we can trust. People who bleed orange and are tired of feeling anemic for the last ten years. So I’d like to make a few suggestions for additions to the athletic department executive committee:

Jon Gruden – sorry, reflex.

Dolly Parton – Should’ve just hired her to do the job outright last time we had an opening. She might be too busy saving God’s country to help save our athletic department, which I have no doubt she could do. I watched that Coat of Many Christmases so many times I feel like the best way to tell people about Jesus is to tell them about Dolly. Don’t tell me you wouldn’t buy a funnel cake and saltwater taffy at Neyland Stadium. This could be the year for the real thing.

Dave Ramsey – Revenue, son. Would prevent ridiculous buyouts and make sure fans like me can buy a coke and a hot dog at Neyland without dipping into the emergency fund. Frees up everyone else to just worry about football, which hopefully frees up at least one person to think about basketball.

Kevin Nash – Six-time World Champion and VFL. Once punched a head coach, so, you know, maybe he doesn’t chair the committee. Experienced in hostile takeovers. My wife says he’s also in something called Magic Mike, which is apparently not a film about Dave Hart’s predecessor.  

If any of these parties are unable or unwilling, I remain on standby. Come on, Mr. Haslam. I promise to start buying the premium gasoline if you put me in that room.

I get that my credentials may not be so hot, but I’ve been raising funds this off-season by selling these t-shirts (rips open jacket to reveal “THE BEACHES OF DORMADY”; shirt is of such low quality you can see it’s got “GUARANTANIMO BAY” printed on the other side). They’re reversible!

Look, you know the reason we won in ‘98 is because all them boys were so angry about being forgotten when all the ‘97 team went pro right? Same thing this year, son! It don’t matter if it’s QD or JG, he’s basically gonna be Tee Martin all over again. John Kelly is like a combination of Tony Thompson, Travis Stephens, Montario Hardesty, and basically every other back who’s been overlooked but finished strong. I like it when I hear a back runs angry, because that’s typically how I’m watching.

I literally cannot imagine what Jauan Jennings can do to top what he did to Jalen Tabor and the entire state of Georgia. (Author’s note: last year basically was the idiot optimist version of Jauan Jennings. I can’t come up with anything better or less probable than what he already did in real life. I salute you, sir.) Does he have boots made of yellow jackets yet? That dude is my favorite Vol since at least Bill Duff. At least.

Do you know we have Todd Kelly’s kid, Dale Carter’s kid, and Eric Berry’s brother all at the same position?! They call that the “safety”, but ain’t nothing safe about this defense. Except, you know, this year they’re not gonna be safe for the other team. Yeah.

It wouldn’t matter if we’re playing Georgia Tech or the Atlanta By God Falcons in that first game, it’s an automatic W since it ain’t in the Georgia Dome. I’m a little worried about having to face Larry Bird on short rest after that, but I have faith in our coaching staff.

Florida? HA! I’ve spent so many hours watching the replay of the second half it’s essentially my part-time job. They ain’t no good. Then we’ve got UMass, who I swear was still on probation from that Calipari business but whatever.

So I’ve got my list of enemies, and it ain’t nothing new. This year we get to trade a shot at Lane Kiffin for a shot at Ed Orgeron; either way when we win I’m taking my shirt off. Will Muschamp is on that list, who cheated last year by playing a quarterback who was taking driver’s ed while ours was taking global thermonuclear war or spaceship flying or probably both. But no matter what we do, we cannot get a shot at Derek By God Dooley, so we’re gonna have to take it out on Georgia instead, again.

People keep saying we should worry about Kentucky or Missouri, but this ain’t basketball or whatever Missouri is good at. And there’s nothing worse I can say about Vanderbilt than the truth: they’re looking at downsizing to an even smaller stadium and sharing it with soccer. Soccer, boys.

Whether it’s in Tuscaloosa or Atlanta, it still won’t be the same to beat Alabama without Kiffin. But maybe we’ll catch Florida Atlantic in the playoff. Either way, this is the year boys. 15-0, National Champions. And Back-to-Back Champions of Life.

 

The Idiot Optimist’s Guide to:

2016: Dobbs for President

2015: Kool-Aid Light

2014: Do you think it’s possible Butch Jones and Jon Gruden are the same person?

2013: The Kool-Aid tasted like bamboo

2012: I’m pretty sure me and you and six of your friends from the message board could coach this team to a championship.

2011: Last year was Year Zero, and everybody knows zero is not a real number.

2010: If I go down to the Big Orange Caravan and look Derek Dooley in the eye, he’s not going to be hiding behind some sunglasses.

Earlier this week Jimmy Hyams quoted some of Tennessee’s offensive linemen saying they wanted John Kelly to get 2,000 yards this season. Perhaps they’re unaware that no one at Tennessee has ever run for even 1,500 yards in a single season, but hey, aim high!

It’s not fair to Kelly to call his sophomore season a good news/bad news campaign. He is Exhibit A in the, “Just because they were playing behind someone great doesn’t mean they can’t be great,” argument for Team 121. It was no sin to be third team behind Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara in their final seasons in Knoxville. The “bad news” side of the equation is, when he did get his chances, most of Kelly’s productivity came against lesser competition:  only six carries in the first five games plus Alabama, none against Florida or Georgia. Most of his 630 yards last year came against Texas A&M, Nebraska, and the late October-November stretch that didn’t feature a Top 50 defense.

The good news is those 630 yards came on only 98 carries. That’s 6.43 yards per carry. And when you break out the media guide and compare that to what the leading running back has done at Tennessee since 1980, it’s very good news indeed:

Year	Back	Att	Yds	YPC
1993	Charlie Garner	159	1161	7.30
2006	LaMarcus Coker	108	696	6.44
2016	John Kelly	98	630	6.43
1994	James Stewart	170	1028	6.05
1992	Charlie Garner	154	928	6.03
1989	Chuck Webb	209	1236	5.91
1997	Jamal Lewis	232	1364	5.88
1983	Johnnie Jones	191	1116	5.84
1990	Tony Thompson	219	1261	5.76
2004	Gerald Riggs	193	1107	5.74

 

First of all, let’s all tip our cap to Charlie Garner’s 1993 campaign. You can make an argument that the ’93 Vols were Tennessee’s most dangerous team of the decade; put a future Pro Bowler like Garner in the backfield with the Heisman runner-up at quarterback, and you get fireworks.

LaMarcus Coker is an interesting comparison for John Kelly. Coker’s 2006 season came as part of a crowded backfield with Arian Foster and Montario Hardesty, and much of his success came against lesser opponents: 417 of his 696 yards came against Marshall, Memphis, and Vanderbilt; 176 of those yards on two runs. He was dismissed from the team the following season while still competing with Foster and Hardesty. But John Kelly has the lead back role all to himself this fall.

Having historically great numbers against below average competition is no guarantee. It’s what makes Kelly both so intriguing and so difficult to project this fall. As he and the line are chasing numbers, Tennessee’s single season rushing record can be had if he averages 113 yards per game. As the lead back in what should continue to be an up-tempo offense, that’s not out of the question. It’s strange to think about something like that just a year after being so sure we were going to see the career record fall to Jalen Hurd. School records aren’t a fair expectation, but it might not be an exaggeration.

What can we expect from John Kelly this fall? He’ll run hard and his linemen talk like they’ll genuinely enjoy blocking for him. That’s always a good sign. Maybe he’ll settle at solid and some of the Vols’ talented freshmen will get to make some hay as well. But there is at least the potential for something special in Tennessee’s backfield from #4.

That’s a lot of alphabet soup in the title. FPI (Football Power Index) is an ESPN metric; as such you’ll see it a lot on their coverage, in playoff conversations, etc. S&P+ is a metric used by Bill Connelly at SB Nation and Football Outsiders, measuring what it believes to be the four factors most critical to success (efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives) plus turnovers.

Both are useful, among many other ways, in their projected win probabilities which update each week. Bill Connelly released his excellent 2017 Tennessee preview today, which gives us a look at S&P+’s projected odds for Tennessee each week. An FPI projection for Tennessee is also available at ESPN.com.

Before diving into their numbers, think of it this way for your own odds:  what percentage chance would you give Tennessee to win each game?

Add up all those percentages, and you’ll get your projection for Tennessee’s record this year. It’s one thing to say you think the Vols should go a generic 9-3 or 5-7. This way of thinking it through usually involves statements like, “Missouri, we’ll beat them.” The Vols should be favored, no doubt, but there’s a difference in assuming an automatic win (of which there are virtually none in the SEC anymore) and saying you give Tennessee an 85% chance.

The Vols are favored in nine games by both FPI and S&P+. But neither projects the Vols to go 9-3. This is because the percentages on so many games are close enough to 50%, the most likely outcome is the Vols will lose one or two they’re actually favored to win. This is what happens to almost everyone: how many power conference teams who were favored in at least six games never lost to an underdog? Last year, the answer was four:  Georgia Tech, Nebraska, Penn State, and Southern Cal. Saying you think Butch Jones will lose one he shouldn’t is basically saying you think Butch Jones is like most coaches in college football (Jones is 27-6 as a favorite at Tennessee and has covered the spread as a favorite better than anyone other than Missouri in the SEC). Upsets happen.

When you add the percentages, FPI projects the Vols to finish around 8-4; S&P+ projects a finish around 7-5. It’s an interesting neutral perspective. Here’s the comparison with Tennessee’s win probability for each game:

Opponent	FPI	S&P+
vs Georgia Tech	68%	56%
Indiana State	99%	98%
at Florida	38%	30%
UMass	97%	93%
Georgia	51%	51%
South Carolina	76%	66%
at Alabama	14%	7%
at Kentucky	60%	57%
Southern Miss	96%	87%
at Missouri	64%	61%
LSU	47%	29%
Vanderbilt	81%	74%

Note the differences:

• How much of a toss-up is Georgia Tech? S&P+ puts it squarely in that category, giving the Vols a 56% chance to win. FPI is much more bullish on the Vols at 68%; other than the 18-point swing in their LSU projections, this is the biggest difference on the board. Vegas has the Vols as a 3.5 point favorite, so I’d say it qualifies as a toss-up.
• I think S&P+’s odds for Florida are too low. Tennessee has had the better team in this match-up three years in a row, and has recruited as well or better than the Gators in that span. Maybe Florida gets elite quarterback play from Malik Zaire to make this difference; I’m not saying the Vols should be favored, but if they played 10 times I think Tennessee wins more than three.
• Everything about the Georgia game suggests a toss-up. And history is the strongest indicator there:  the last six have been decided by one possession, three of the last four on the final play of the game.
• What is Tennessee’s most difficult game after Alabama, LSU, Florida, and Georgia? FPI says it’s at Kentucky (60%). S&P+ gives the nod to Georgia Tech, but by only a singe percentage point over Kentucky (57%). No one likes the timing of that trip to Lexington the week after Tuscaloosa.

If you blindly assume the Vols will win all the games they’re favored in, you’re probably thinking 9-3 or better. If you blindly assume every game other than Alabama and the non-power-conference games are true toss-ups, you’re probably thinking 7-5 or worse. I think the latter assumption is safer, but the truth is usually in the middle. And in this case, the data can support what I believe will be the majority projection of 8-4.