Author Archives: Will Shelton

Tennessee’s new starting quarterback is 12-of-24 for 54 yards in three appearances this season. Those 2.3 yards per attempt obviously must increase for the Vols to have any chance to win, and the play-calling should give him some of the chances Quinten Dormady has had down the field. Guarantano’s struggles in limited action have tempered some of the expectations that usually come when the backup gets his chance. But the context of what other Vol quarterbacks have done in their first mid-season start serves as an additional dose of realism.

Justin Worley also got his first start against South Carolina in 2011, going 10-of-26 for 105 yards in a 14-3 loss. This was a ranked Gamecock squad, but the performance was still one of the ten worst for the Tennessee offense in the last ten years.

Nathan Peterman was a surprise starter against the Gators in 2013. He didn’t make it out of the first half, going 4-of-11 for five yards with three total turnovers. Peterman’s play is a good reminder to never make the first impression the final one:  I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a Tennessee quarterback look worse than Peterman did on this day, and after Josh Dobbs ran away with the job against Alabama the next year he never got another look in Knoxville. But he excelled at Pittsburgh and made the Bills’ roster this fall.

The Vols didn’t find the end zone in Josh Dobbs’ first start, but his numbers were significantly better:  26-of-42 for 240 yards, completing 62% of his passes for 5.7 yards per attempt. Those kind of numbers aren’t good enough to win every Saturday, but for a first start against an SEC defense (and in Dobbs’ case, a top five Missouri team) it’s not bad. A few weeks later (and without Marquez North), Dobbs would give Peterman’s 2013 Florida game a run for its money by going 11-of-19 for 53 yards (2.8 yards per attempt) and a pair of interceptions against Vanderbilt. But he would spend the next 2.5 years becoming the most productive Tennessee quarterback since Peyton Manning.

All new quarterbacks must be handled with patience, and to that point I wouldn’t consider the book closed on Quinten Dormady either. How long will Guarantano’s leash be against the Gamecocks? Worley, Peterman, and Dobbs each threw two interceptions in their first start. If Guarantano follows suit, will Dormady see any action?

There is one critical difference between Guarantano’s first start and the others: the stakes are much, much higher for the head coach. Derek Dooley made a foolish and/or panic move in pulling Worley’s redshirt in the middle of his second season as coach, but Tyler Bray would return from a broken thumb a few weeks later and Dooley was always going to get a third year. Peterman stepped in for Worley in Butch Jones’ third career game at Tennessee, a decision that turned out to be rash. But now Butch Jones is in must-win territory, and pledged to get there on the shoulders of his redshirt freshman quarterback. How much of the offense will they give him? How much of the offense can he handle? Will the nature of the beast this week make a sleepy Tennessee offense come alive sooner?

Don’t set the bar too high for a quarterback making his first start in the middle of the season. But can it be high enough to beat South Carolina?

How bad was last Saturday’s loss to Georgia from an offensive standpoint? Not only was it the first time the Vols had been shut out since 1994, it was one of the worst performances by a Tennessee offense in yards per play in the last ten years. 2008-17 is a good benchmark as it represents Tennessee’s fall from grace, and because that’s as far back as the numbers from Sports Source Analytics go.

Because we love history more than we love feeling good about ourselves, here’s a look at Tennessee’s ten worst offensive performances in the last ten years in yards per play:

10. 2014:  Florida 10 Tennessee 9 (3.43 yards per play)

Seven snaps in the Florida red zone, and all of them failed to gain a single yard. That led to three field goals and a bitter 10-9 defeat on a day most of us came to Neyland Stadium expecting the Florida streak to fall. The Vols had 29 carries for 28 yards.

9. 2008:  Auburn 14 Tennessee 12 (3.35 yards per play)

While Phillip Fulmer would ultimately go down with the ship, the 2008 Clawfense was its biggest leak. It’s one thing to lose, but another to lose like this:  needing only a field goal to win at #15 Auburn, the Vols started their final four drives at the Auburn 38, UT 42, Auburn 46, and UT 46. They failed to gain a single first down. Jonathan Crompton was 8-of-23 for 67 yards.

8. 2015:  Oklahoma 31 Tennessee 24 (2OT) (3.34 yards per play)

Tennessee led 17-3 at halftime and gained 51 yards on the first two plays of the third quarter to move to the Oklahoma 24 yard line. But after missing a field goal, the Vols punted on their next five drives and gained no more than 11 yards on any of them before bowing out in the second overtime on an interception. Josh Dobbs was 13-of-31 for only 125 yards, and the Vols averaged just 2.9 yards per carry in a heartbreaking loss to an eventual playoff team.

7. 2008:  Wyoming 13 Tennessee 7 (3.27 yards per play)

With Phillip Fulmer’s forced resignation announced earlier in the week, the Clawfense was even more lifeless against the Cowboys. Crompton and Nick Stephens combined to go 14-of-36 for 145 yards and two interceptions in a demoralizing loss to a mid-major in Knoxville.

6. 2011:  South Carolina 14 Tennessee 3 (3.15 yards per play)

Derek Dooley pulled Justin Worley’s redshirt the week before, then gave him the start against the #13 Gamecocks. The Vols got a field goal after South Carolina fumbled a punt on the game’s first series, then never scored again. The Gamecocks also famously scored on a 20-play, 98-yard drive in the second half. Worley was 10-of-26 for 105 yards and two interceptions before giving way to Matt Simms again, who went 5-of-12 for 46 yards.

5. 2011:  Alabama 37 Tennessee 6 (3.10 yards per play)

The week before, the Vols and Crimson Tide were actually tied 6-6 at halftime before Nick Saban’s troops ripped off a 21-point third quarter en route to another 31-point win. Matt Simms was 8-of-17 for 58 yards and an interception, which led to Worley’s entrance…where he handed the ball off.

4. 2014:  Ole Miss 34 Tennessee 3 (3.08 yards per play)

Tennessee’s defense was actually pretty good in this one early against #3 Ole Miss, forcing a three-and-out on six of the Rebels’ first seven drives. But the offense could not keep Justin Worley safe and did literally nothing running the ball:  28 carries, zero yards.

3. 2009:  UCLA 19 Tennessee 15 (2.97 yards per play)

I forgot how bad this one was. Lane Kiffin’s first date with FBS competition did not go well:  Crompton was 13-of-26 for only 93 yards and three interceptions, leaving Montario Hardesty and Bryce Brown to run into a brick wall as the Vols had just 115 yards on 44 carires for 2.6 ypc. Two runs into the middle from 3rd-and-goal at the 3 and 4th-and-goal at the 2 kept the Vols out of the end zone in the fourth quarter and gave UCLA a big win.

2. 2017: Georgia 41 Tennessee 0 (2.73 yards per play)

Last Saturday was the second worst offensive performance of the last decade. Quinten Dormady’s 5-of-16 for 64 yards with two picks was the worst yards per attempt number (4.0) for a Tennessee starter since the number one game on this list, and the 1-for-12 conversion rate on third down (8.3%) the worst of the last ten years. Burn this film.

1. 2016: Alabama 49 Tennessee 10 (2.59 yards per play)

The Vols had 32 carries for 32 yards as injuries riddled the offensive line, scored their only touchdown on an 11-yard drive after a fumble, and were basically out of this thing at halftime even though they were only down 21-7, and had only three plays of 10+ yards before going down 28-7 in the third quarter.

Which one of these is the worst memory? Nowhere to go but up from here!

 

Last Saturday my wife and I brought our first child home from the hospital. As Tennessee goes, it was a pretty good day to not be paying attention.

It’s been different this week being so insulated from what everyone is saying about the Vols, both the voices I love and the voices that drive me crazy. Sometimes when we speak of “blocking out the noise”, we’re a red-faced kid with his hands in his ears: he may not hear it, but he is entirely focused on it. Maybe it’s healthier to just remove it from the equation and the decision-making process.

Sports are about the moments more than they are about the noise, the talent, or even the win total. Last year we looked at data from Bill Connelly at SB Nation on the best Tennessee teams of the “Decade” of Dominance. In a 13-year span from 1989-2001, Tennessee won four league titles, a national championship, and had the best winning percentage of any team in the SEC. But Connelly’s S&P+ numbers suggested Heath Shuler’s 1993 team was the best of that bunch. They were an exceptionally talented and dangerous football team. They just weren’t as memorable – in large part because their schedule gave them fewer chances to make those moments – as some of their less talented or even less successful Tennessee contemporaries.

One of my favorite tests for what kind of season Tennessee had is, “Did the Vol Network release a season highlight film?” Those years, since Johnny Majors arrived in 1977: 1985, 1987, 1989-90, 1993, 1995-99, 2001, 2003-04, 2006-07. It’s been so long since they had the opportunity, I’m not even sure what format they would sell it on anymore.

Sports are about moments, and not just the ones available to an established program competing for championships. Among the others, some of the most potent are the “we’re back” moments, which is why they come with so many false alarms. You can create a moment in any season, but ultimately the season itself has to be considered a success for that moment to last.

I think this is what has hurt Tennessee and Butch Jones the most these last five years: missed opportunities to score meaningful “we’re back!” wins, then blown opportunities to cash in even bigger moments in could-have-been championship seasons. Positive, lasting memories are outnumbered by moments that should have been or should have lasted.

There have been significant wins, no doubt, some of them bigger and better than anything around here in more than a decade. But when the seasons those moments came in didn’t end well, they traded some percentage of their pleasure for pain. We missed the chance to celebrate being back to competing for championships because there was no defining victory in that process. Then we lost opportunities to look back with nothing but joy on Saturdays that seemed built to last, but didn’t because the Vols didn’t finish the job.

Think about it this way: how many big Tennessee wins in the last five years don’t give you some kind of a “Yeah, but…” feeling?

Not as they were happening; if you’re a, “Yeah, but…” person in the midst of a big win, you need to get out more. But when we look back at them in the context of the entire season?

Last year Tennessee won a game at a NASCAR track, beat Florida for the first time in 11 years in the biggest comeback over a ranked team in Neyland Stadium history, and beat Georgia on a hail mary in the first five weeks of the season (and almost quadrupled down at Texas A&M). It’s not hyperbole to say I’ve never seen a string of moments like that in so few weeks as a Tennessee fan…which still makes it all the more painful when the Vols didn’t capitalize on them the rest of the year. When I go back and watch the second half against Florida or the last play against Georgia, there’s still a small but significant part of me that associates frustration with those games because the Vols didn’t ultimately cash any of it in.

How many significant, non-yeah-but wins for Tennessee in the last five years? How many are only freely and fondly remembered? For me, that list is:

• Josh Dobbs’ coming out party at South Carolina in 2014. Before frantic finishes became so common under Butch Jones, what the Vols did in the final two minutes and what Dobbs did all night were truly remarkable. When Jones throws around that, “We’re x-and-y in the last z games,” statistic, he always starts with this game, and rightfully so. This one holds up as Dobbs’ coming out party and the beginning of Tennessee’s ascent to national relevance.
• The Taxslayer Bowl start-to-finish blowout of Iowa a few weeks later, Tennessee’s first bowl victory in seven years and still probably the most dominant performance a Butch Jones team has had.
• A 45-6 win over #13 Northwestern in the Outback Bowl at the end of the 2015 season, which allowed the floodgates of championship expectations to open wide. This remains Tennessee’s largest margin of victory over a ranked team since 1990.

And I think that’s about it. The 2015 Georgia game might have been Jones’ most important win, but it had such a stop-the-bleeding component it’s hard for me to associate it more strongly in a different context. The 2013 win over #11 South Carolina was important because Jones did something in two months that Derek Dooley never did in three years, but when those Vols failed to earn bowl eligibility the moment faded. And the blessings and burdens of last year are still fresh on our minds, and inform a significant percentage of the conversation about Butch Jones.

Under their head coach, Tennessee has scored both talent and win totals better than anything we’ve seen in a decade, along with some significant individual wins. But what is missing are moments that get to last. Those moments are sport’s most precious commodity. The noise is simply a reflection of their presence or absence.   

Are there still chances for Butch Jones and these Vols to make those moments? Outside of beating Bama, the schedule has turned in a way that we might have called advantageous had the Vols beaten Florida. But now a head coach and his 3-2 team in desperate need of those moments face a whole bunch of opponents they are always expected to beat, plus an LSU squad threatening to join that list. Tennessee could theoretically finish 9-3 – the program’s best regular season since 2007 – and frustration could still be the first word (although a 9-3 finish could lead to an opportunity for one of those kind of moments in a more prestigious bowl). Perhaps Jarrett Guarantano will spark an opportunity. But beyond Tuscaloosa, how much is left in this regular season that will move the needle? This season’s narrative has already shifted from meaningful football to curiosity about the coach. If it’s going to happen for Butch Jones in Knoxville, he will need to do a lot of winning in the next two months to get another chance to make those moments next fall.

I don’t know what John Currie and The Powers That Be at Tennessee are thinking. But I do know, no matter who is on the sideline, Tennessee needs those moments and needs them to last. 

The best part about drawing conclusions from today is you don’t really have to:  after two years of premature calls on “THE MOST IMPORTANT GAME IN BUTCH JONES’ CAREER!!!!!”, the real thing is coming to Knoxville next Saturday.

This was probably true no matter what Tennessee did today. But a 17-13 win over UMass did nothing to lower the temperature or raise confidence around the program.

Tennessee has a habit of doing something like this against teams like that. I think Appalachian State is a little too good for the comparison, but 28-19 over Ohio, 24-0 over North Texas, 34-19 over Arkansas State and even 31-24 over South Alabama in year one all come to mind. All games against over-matched foes where Tennessee didn’t cover the spread and didn’t seem particularly interested in doing so. I would not recommend this strategy against Southern Miss.

You don’t draw significant conclusions about a coach or a team based on what they do against non-power-five teams, as long as they win those games. But data points like today serve as secondary arguments, doing the Vols and their coach no favors when the primary arguments surround losses as painful as last week.

The next primary data point will roll into Knoxville on Saturday at 3:30, one of the most significant of Butch Jones’ tenure and, at this point, the most important. There will be only one of two conversations by 7:30 or so. We’ll either be talking about Tennessee’s chances in the SEC East, or talking about Butch Jones.

You can come to such a crossroad and make the right turn:  Phillip Fulmer did exactly that in the week leading up to this same Georgia game 10 years ago, and the Vols went on to win the division. If Kentucky and Mississippi State find ways to win tonight, a Tennessee victory over Georgia might even make the Vols one of the front-runners.

But a loss will put Tennessee in an almost impossible place in the SEC East with Alabama still on the schedule, and questions will dominate the bye week. I don’t think next week will be a must-win in the eyes of John Currie, not with half the season left to play. But the conversation will become unavoidable for the foreseeable future.

What happened today? Early on Tennessee fumbled, doinked a field goal, and hurt themselves with an offensive pass interference call. All those little things added up to just a 17-6 lead midway through the third quarter, and when UMass immediately responded with their best drive of the day, it was like Tennessee had already put the car in park. The Vols got only two first downs on their next five drives against the Minutemen, which included an appearance from Jarrett Guarantano that did not provide the spark I assume they were looking for.

Tennessee’s defense held UMass to 281 yards and 4.76 yards per play. But Tennessee’s offense managed only 319 yards and was actually worse per play (4.49).

A word on attendance:  the announced (paying?) crowd was 95,324. Many of them left early around that 17-6 mark. I always believe attendance is one of the most important ways you take the temperature of the fan base; the group that came and/or paid is still significantly healthier than what we’ve seen recently. Derek Dooley’s 2012 Vols drew only 87,821 after beating NC State to open the season, before things went wrong. They would go on to draw less than 90,000 announced four more times that year.

Tennessee’s program is in a much, much healthier place than that right now. But the thousands of fans who left early won’t be ignored either. Whether they assumed, were angry, or were bored today (plus I’m sure burning up in the heat), dissatisfaction is obvious.

But in the SEC, the opportunity for satisfaction is usually only one week away. Georgia, a team Butch Jones and Tennessee have beaten twice in a row for the first time since 2006-07, will represent the win he has most needed since arriving in Knoxville. Even more than Florida last year, when the Vols were suddenly playing without three of their best four defenders. Injuries are a factor for this year’s team, but they are not yet an excuse.

On the eve of that Florida game last year, we wrote something that continues to hold true for this team and its coaches:  Tennessee must believe “the team that makes the fewest mistakes will win” is the first maxim, but not the only one. Timidity begets timidity, and playing not to lose eventually begets losing.

Tennessee has to carry the fight to Georgia. If they do, I also believe confidence begets confidence. This is a talented team. Carry the fight. Because if they don’t, they are likely to find themselves in another painfully close game. That might happen against a good Georgia team anyway. But if you’re Tennessee, you don’t want to just go down swinging at the mercy of two or three plays. You need to come out swinging, and bend those plays to your will in the first quarter instead of the fourth. Be the aggressor. Earn victory.

Big, big week ahead. Carry the fight to Georgia and keep it there for sixty minutes.

Go Vols.

There’s still plenty of conversation about last week and plenty of conversation about the future, but in the present Tennessee finds itself in a crowded SEC East field. Fans of a certain age are used to losing to Florida and then only having to care about whether the Gators lost twice. But two things have complicated that equation:  one, Nick Saban’s dominance in Tuscaloosa means most will pencil in a second loss for the Vols, requiring an additional Gator loss or a complicated tiebreaker. And two, the SEC East is now much more competitive top to bottom.

Through three weeks, here’s how ESPN’s FPI projects the SEC East in conference win total:

Florida	5.281
Georgia	5.019
Kentucky	4.080
South Carolina	3.977
Tennessee	3.882
Vanderbilt	3.216
Missouri	1.247

What do Tennessee and Vanderbilt have in common near the bottom of the list? They both play Alabama and both get only an 11% chance from FPI, significantly driving down the overall projection. It’s frustrating to see the Vols fifth on this list right now, but the bigger takeaway to me is how crowded the field is from 1-6. Saying 5-3 might win the East is no exaggeration; three weeks in, it seems like the most likely outcome.

If that 11% doesn’t get it done against Alabama tomorrow and Mississippi State stays hot at Georgia (UGA is a 4.5-point favorite), every SEC East team will have a loss other than the winner of Kentucky/Florida. And if the Cats can turn back three decades of futility, the season outlook will seem significantly brighter for Tennessee.

Florida maintains a scheduling advantage due to moving the LSU game last year, and what seemed like a tough SEC West draw of the Tigers and Texas A&M now seems much easier. Meanwhile Georgia’s draw of Mississippi State this week and their annual meeting with Auburn seems more difficult. You never know how these things are going to turn out, but I do know any win for an East team over a West team this year will be a tremendous asset. Not because the West is necessarily so much better than the East this year, but because the East seems so tightly packed.

So yes, watch the Vols Saturday. But the greatest importance to Tennessee’s season this week is what happens Saturday night in Lexington and Athens. We’ll learn a little more about the East race, and might even find ourselves much more in it than we thought just one week after the Florida loss.

Check out our full schedule of what Tennessee fans should watch this weekend.

There are plenty of numbers to support the growing narrative of Tennessee’s offense:  the Vols again fell behind by two possessions, again rallied, and again should have won. Had they pulled it off in Gainesville it would have been the eighth time in the last 34 games Tennessee came back to win from down two possessions. That’s exciting, but the argument here is, “Is it necessary?”

In 2016 and the first three games of 2017, the Vols have been incredibly productive when they had the ball in the fourth quarter. And there are a plethora of statistics to back it up (the data comes from Sports Source Analytics):

Rushing Offense

• In 2016, Tennessee averaged 6.69 yards per carry in the fourth quarter with 11 touchdowns and 29 runs of 10+ yards. All three of those numbers were the best for any quarter of the game last fall. Through three games this year the Vols average 6.22 yards per carry in the fourth quarter, bested only by a 7.35 average in the second quarter.
• John Kelly in the fourth quarter this fall:  11 carries for 104 yards (9.45 ypc) with two touchdowns. He is one of only 16 players in college football to have run for 100+ yards in the fourth quarter this year, and is tied with nine other running backs atop the national leaderboard with four 10+ yard runs in the fourth quarter.
• Last year Josh Dobbs ran the ball 32 times for 324 yards (10.13 ypc) in the fourth quarter, seventh nationally in yards per carry.

These kind of numbers suggest an offense that wears down the defense all day and/or a team playing from behind against softer coverage. But most of Tennessee’s two-possession holes had already been erased by the fourth quarter last season (and Tennessee’s defense wasn’t good enough to make you feel safe about any lead). And the fourth quarter passing numbers are just as stout:

Passing Offense

• Last year Josh Dobbs was 49-of-73 (67.1%) for 739 yards (10.12 ypa) with nine touchdowns and three interceptions in the fourth quarter. His fourth quarter QB rating was fourth nationally.
• This year Quinten Dormady is 11-of-20 (55%) for 248 yards (12.4 ypa) with two touchdowns and an interception in the fourth quarter. His fourth quarter QB rating is currently 19th nationally.
• Dormady’s 248 fourth quarter passing yards are eighth nationally.
• John Kelly and Marquez Callaway in the fourth quarter:  six catches for 187 yards and a touchdown.
• Josh Malone last year in the fourth quarter:  12 catches for 308 yards and four touchdowns. He was one of only nine players to finish the season with 300+ receiving yards in the fourth quarter.

Look at the yards per attempt per quarter over the last two years:

Dobbs 2016	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	YPA
1Q	58	96	60.4%	704	7.33
2Q	65	105	61.9%	785	7.48
3Q	51	80	63.8%	703	8.79
4Q	49	73	67.1%	739	10.12
Dormady 2017	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	YPA
1Q	11	20	55.0%	115	5.75
2Q	17	30	56.7%	143	4.77
3Q	14	23	60.9%	153	6.65
4Q	11	20	55.0%	248	12.40

Dormady doesn’t have the uptick in completion percentage Dobbs enjoyed in the fourth quarter, but the jump in yards per attempt is incredible.

All these numbers show the offense the Vols are running in the fourth quarter is incredibly potent. So what of the offense Tennessee runs in the other three quarters? What’s the difference?

I don’t have all the answers or the reasons why. As we noted yesterday, this has been an issue for Tennessee through three offensive coordinators and three starting quarterbacks under Butch Jones. The simplest explanation may be that playing from behind and in so many tight games has created have-to-have-it moments in the fourth quarter almost every week. And in those situations, Tennessee’s offense has largely excelled.

But the best way to win close games continues to be not to play them. If the team that shows up in the fourth quarter somehow manifests itself earlier and/or throughout the game – in some combination of philosophy, play-calling, and execution – the Vols would not find themselves in position to get beat by a miraculous play.

We saw Butch Jones make an adjustment in philosophy to get to this point:  in 2015 the Vols were racing to early leads, then letting off the gas. That kind of loss hasn’t happened since the Arkansas game that year. But now the Vols are saving too much gas for the home stretch. A better chance of success, for the Vols and their head coach, is to treat every play like it’s the fourth quarter.

Butch Jones’ tenure in Knoxville has featured an unusual number of these kinds of games. Frantic fourth quarters, miracle finishes, games decided on the final drive or a dramatic play in the final minute or, in this case, final second. Sometimes the Vols win, sometimes they don’t. Sometimes we get Josh Dobbs at South Carolina in 2014 or Jauan Jennings last fall in Athens. Sometimes we get Antonio Callaway and Tyrie Cleveland.

But when the dramatic wins and the dramatic losses just balance out, they don’t leave you with progress. It leaves us with heart conditions and, to their credit, a “we’re never out of it” confidence in players so a play like Justin Martin’s end zone punch-out is oddly normal because we just saw Malik Foreman do it last year.

So you can say a lot of things about that final play (and one of them should be a tip of the cap to Feleipe Franks for the throw). But Tennessee’s biggest problem today was that they put themselves in position to be beaten by it.

Coming into today, when the Vols had a 1st-and-10 inside the opponent’s 40 yard line they went on to score a touchdown on every drive except the one ending in Quinten Dormady’s end zone interception against Indiana State last week. Today when the Vols had a scoring opportunity inside the 40, they did this:

• 1st Quarter:  Dormady interception on 3rd-and-10
• 2nd Quarter:  Cimaglia 51-yard field goal made
• 2nd Quarter:  Cimaglia 47-yard field goal missed
• 3rd Quarter:  Dormady end zone interception after 1st-and-Goal at the 1
• 3rd Quarter:  Cimaglia 51-yard field goal missed after third down sack
• 4th Quarter:  Medley 44-yard field goal missed
• 4th Quarter:  Touchdown
• 4th Quarter:  Touchdown
• 4th Quarter:  Medley 27-yard field goal good after 1st-and-Goal at the 9

In seven first-and-goal snaps in the second half, the Vols threw seven passes. Those two sequences went like this:

• 1st-and-Goal at the 1: Should have been picked, unsportsmanlike conduct on Florida
• 1st-and-Goal at the 1: False start on Jack Jones
• 1st-and-Goal at the 5: Incomplete
• 2nd-and-Goal at the 5: Complete to John Kelly for a loss of 1
• 3rd-and-Goal at the 6: Dormady intercepted
• 1st-and-Goal at the 9: Incomplete to John Kelly, should have been a touchdown
• 2nd-and-Goal at the 9: Incomplete
• 3rd-and-Goal at the 9:  Incomplete

Seven plays, and none of them gained a single yard. This is exactly what happened on Tennessee’s only seven red zone snaps against Florida in 2014. John Kelly had 19 carries for 141 yards, but the Vols never ran the ball in a goal-to-go scenario.

This was Larry Scott’s third game calling plays, and I thought he did some good things again today. But what happened in the most crucial part of the field and the game was disastrous. Scott can learn and adjust. The Vols need better field goal kicking. But the overall philosophy must evolve, as Tennessee continues to flirt with the dramatic instead of taking better advantage on every snap.

This has happened with two defensive coordinators, three offensive coordinators, and now three different quarterbacks. It starts with Butch, who to his credit didn’t seem to shy away from that in the postgame. His teams absolutely never quit. But his teams have to be better at making the other team quit.

I don’t know what the best label for it is in the play-calling:  more aggression, more confidence, more competence, etc. But mismanaging crucial situations has cost Tennessee against Florida in 2014, Oklahoma and Florida in 2015, and Florida today. That covers Bajakian, DeBord, and Larry Scott. It is a common, painful theme.

Butch isn’t going anywhere. We all need to blow off a little steam, but everything else is a waste of energy right now. The Vols get UMass next week, then Georgia. If this year’s theme is DAT way, today was a reminder that Butch’s teams have been both incredibly tough and incredibly frustrating in the details. That leaves accountability, which starts with the head coach but must be more than a postgame quote. Tennessee must start coaching and playing to take more advantage on every snap, or they will continue to risk breaking hearts and having theirs broken every Saturday. And they will continue to find themselves on an incredibly entertaining treadmill.

Beneath all the talk, the rivalry, and the unique circumstances surrounding this year’s Tennessee-Florida game, this is the most important fact:  for the fourth year in a row, the Vols have the better team.

The better team doesn’t always win. In 2014 the Vols kept Florida’s offense at bay all day, surrendering only a 30-yard touchdown drive and a 49-yard field goal. But because the Vol offense had a total of seven snaps in the red zone and all seven failed to gain a single yard, the Gators escaped 10-9. In 2015 Tennessee scored to take a 26-14 lead with 10 minutes to play, didn’t go for two, then surrendered conversions on 4th-and-7, 4th-and-8, and 4th-and-14 before poor game management left them with only a 55-yard field goal attempt in one of the five most difficult losses of my lifetime.

Florida got those wins, which is ultimately what matters most. It’s what mattered most for Tennessee last year. But in each of the last three match-ups, the Vols have outperformed the Gators in both total yards and yards per play (with an even turnover margin in each game):

	Plays	Total Yards	Yards Per Play
2014 TEN	68	233	3.43
2014 FLA	75	232	3.09
2015 TEN	70	419	5.99
2015 FLA	71	392	5.52
2016 TEN	79	498	6.30
2016 FLA	70	402	5.74

It hasn’t just been on the field. Tennessee out-recruited Florida from 2014-16, and after a setback in the rankings in February, both the Vols and Gators are currently putting together Top 10 classes for 2018:

(Blue chip ratio represents the percentage of each class made up by four-and-five-stars)

	TEN Rank	TEN Blue Chip	FLA Rank	FLA Blue Chip
2014	7	50.0%	9	37.5%
2015	4	53.3%	21	19.0%
2016	14	43.5%	12	36.0%
2017	17	17.9%	11	47.8%
2018	6	43.5%	7	52.9%

Underneath some perceived friction between Butch Jones and the Tennessee fanbase is the stability Jones has built into the program over the last five years, a stability which may now exceed Florida’s. It’s frustrating to say the Vols really could/should be going for four in a row against the Gators on Saturday and going for their third straight SEC East title this fall. But what’s also true is this may represent the longest stretch of years when Tennessee has had the better team in this rivalry since it became an annual one in 1992. And with a win on Saturday, the Vols will put themselves in an excellent position to extend this run.

The last time Tennessee capitalized on Florida’s instability wasn’t perfect either:  the transition from Steve Spurrier to Ron Zook included an incredibly weird and painful shouldn’t-have-happened loss in 2002, but the Vols still won three of four from 2001-04 en route to a pair of east titles. Butch Jones’ Vols can’t get 2014 and 2015 back, but turned the tide in this rivalry in dramatic fashion in 2016. The close losses may still be painful, but the team’s overall performance the last three years, culminating in last season’s signature win, should give Team 121 real confidence going to Gainesville.

Confidence could be Tennessee’s best weapon in this game. The Gators can ride a wave of “nobody believes in us” on Saturday with backups in key roles, the state still recovering, etc. The best way to deal with emotions like that is in businesslike fashion. And Tennessee’s offense has shown early signs that business could be very good this year.

In Tennessee’s advanced statistical profile at Football Study Hall, the Vol offense ranks 56th nationally in explosiveness. Anytime an offense is more explosive, fans have more fun. But attempting to be explosive can be dangerous for a young quarterback with relatively unproven play-makers, especially against a Florida defense. What takes care of business is efficiency, and there the Vols have excelled.

Football Study Hall and S&P+ utilize success rate to measure efficiency:  does a team gain 50% of the needed yardage on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third and fourth down. By this metric the Vol offense is successful on nearly half of its snaps (49.1%) through two games, 29th nationally. Tennessee has also taken advantage of excellent special teams play, 12th in the nation in average starting field position.

But most impressively, Tennessee’s offense is fifth nationally in finishing drives, measured by points per trip inside the 40 (or, when your team had a 1st-and-10 inside the opponent’s 40 yard line, how often did they score?).

Last week Quinten Dormady threw a terrible interception in the end zone. But every other time the Vols have had 1st-and-10 inside the opponent’s 40 this year, they have scored a touchdown. An average of 6.42 points every time you cross the 40 ranks fifth nationally. That’s impressive no matter who you’ve played.

Larry Scott’s offense is laying down an efficient identity, and that’s exactly what Tennessee needs in Gainesville. The Vols have more talent, more of the right kind of experience through two weeks this fall, and have a chance to be the more stable program coming out of Saturday. With so much uncertainty surrounding this game, I fall back on the simplest answer:  Tennessee has the better team. And this time, they’ve already earned their confidence.

Take care of business.

Go Vols.

The answers will really come next week. But after a week of triple option and a week of FCS, we can put a few questions aside on the road to Gainesville.

Quinten Dormady is Tennessee’s quarterback right now. Speculation that Jarrett Guarantano has a higher ceiling is based in recruiting rankings and…I’m not sure what else at this point. Dormady is 33-of-55 for 415 yards (7.5 yards per attempt) with four touchdowns and one poor decision on an interception today. Since halftime against Georgia Tech, Dormady is 25-of-35 (71.4%) for 363 yards (10.4 ypa).

Guarantano could’ve had more help from his receivers today, but was still 4-of-12 for 41 yards against an FCS opponent. There is a reason they didn’t play him on Monday, and I would not expect to see him in Gainesville. That’s no guarantee Dormady will be lights out against a tougher Gator defense, but he is the clear choice of this coaching staff at the moment. And what we’ve seen on the field backs that up.

Tennessee’s number two running back is up for grabs. Before today Carlin Fils-aime was best known for being part of an unfortunate fumble at South Carolina last year. I was worried, if Ty Chandler had clearly passed him by, that might be the strongest memory he got to make at Tennessee. But CFA took care of that himself today with 41 yards and two touchdowns on three carries.

In Butch Jones’ tenure the Vols have always had a clear one-two at running back (Neal/Lane, Hurd/Lane, Hurd/Kamara). John Kelly is clearly the alpha, but the beta is still up for grabs it would seem.

Dormady loves Brandon Johnson. With seven catches in two games, Johnson has been Tennessee’s most targeted wide receiver. John Kelly has more catches overall as the Vols continue to love to throw to the running back in this offense. And Marquez Callaway is clearly the big play threat. But Johnson might be emerging as the number two option at receiver in what is still a crowded field. Josh Palmer had some big chances today that Dormady overthrew, and Josh Smith was going to start originally but is yet to play. I think the Vols are better off if they get more consistency at the top, but there are some decent options here.

Efficiency competes for championships. The Vols had only one three-and-out today and put an 0-for-11 on Indiana State’s offense on third down. This offense isn’t putting up the numbers we saw in November last year, but that’s an unfair comparison considering the Vols led the nation in yards per play during that stretch last fall. What they have done is get off to a better start in the first two games than what we saw from Team 120 against Appalachian State, Virginia Tech, and Ohio. They avoid negative plays and, since halftime against Georgia Tech, give themselves good opportunities on third down. The defense can’t erase Yellow Jacket memories by beating Indiana State, but they did hold the Sycamores to 3.77 yards per play.

Tennessee now must maintain focus in what will be an emotional week. Where will this Florida game be played? Florida State and Miami have moved their showdown, but the Vols and Gators do not have a common bye week. If Gainesville isn’t an option, could the game be played in Atlanta? Would both teams consider moving it to Knoxville, then playing in Gainesville in both 2018 and 2019?

There will be plenty of rumors, and Florida’s decision makers didn’t endear themselves to the rest of the league over the LSU game last year. But the biggest concern this week is everyone’s safety and the livelihood of those in the Sunshine State; how much that is affected won’t begin to be known until a few days from now. Thoughts and prayers to those in the path of this storm; we’ll figure out football later. And no matter what the outcome, Tennessee is capable of taking care of its own business.

How did Tennessee’s performance against Georgia Tech affect our outlook on the rest of the season? In this week’s win probability (and you can still fill in your own at the bottom of that post), our readers nudge the Vols to the right side of eight wins:

Opponent	Win Probability
Georgia Tech	100.0%
Indiana State	99.1%
at Florida	57.5%
UMass	98.1%
Georgia	51.4%
South Carolina	64.7%
at Alabama	12.4%
at Kentucky	70.0%
Southern Miss	87.9%
at Missouri	71.8%
LSU	33.8%
Vanderbilt	69.1%
WINS	8.16

Most noteworthy here:  our readers now find Florida a more likely victory than Georgia. But the rest of the numbers show this has more to do with what the Gators did than what we saw from the Vols.

Again, it’s difficult to make meaningful observations about the rest of the season from a week one date with the triple option. The good news: it’s Indiana State this Saturday, which means instead of going from a grueling overtime opener to the spectacle of Bristol like last year, the Vols get a much-needed visit from an FCS school with a losing record. The bad news: I’m not sure how much we’re going to learn this week either.

What is most exciting in the week two syllabus?

John Kelly, Marquez Callaway, Ethan Wolf, and…?

When Jauan Jennings went down, Quinten Dormady and Tennessee’s passing game went three places. To no surprise in the Butch Jones offense, the running back played a major role: John Kelly led the team with five receptions. Marquez Callaway was a revelation with 115 yards and two scores. And Ethan Wolf was inches away from what would have been his most productive day in a Tennessee uniform.

Will we see anyone begin to emerge behind those three? Brandon Johnson caught three passes but for only 14 yards underneath against the Yellow Jackets. Josh Palmer started but finished with just one catch. Does Josh Smith play? Can Tyler Byrd get on the same page with the quarterback(s)? Do we see more from some of the backups? The more options the Gators have to prepare for, the better.

How do the Vols rotate on defense?

Plenty of conversation in this short week has emerged around the number of snaps some of Tennessee’s defenders played. The Vols had five of the nation’s Top 50 defenders in total tackles in week one. This is in part because Georgia Tech had 96 offensive snaps in a double overtime game. But it’s also because, despite this, the Vols didn’t really rotate a lot of defenders.

Ten of UT’s starting eleven defenders had at least six tackles; Justin Martin was the odd man out. But behind the starters, no one recorded more than three total tackles. 116 of Tennessee’s 131 total tackles came from those ten players.

The drop-off is even more striking by position:

• Linebacker:  Bituli, Jumper, & McDowell 54 combined tackles; Elliott Berry 1, Quart’e Sapp 1
• Defensive End:  Kongbo & Taylor 19 combined tackles; Kyle Phillips 2
• Safety:  Abernathy & Warrior 22 combined tackles; Todd Kelly Jr. 3

The numbers would have been striking at defensive tackle as well had Kendal Vickers not gone out with an injury. Against 96 plays and 40+ minutes of possession, the Vols rolled with their starters all night long.

The million dollar question here:  was that because the coaches didn’t trust any of the backups against Georgia Tech’s offense, or don’t trust the backups period?

They’ll trust them plenty against Indiana State, and those big names up there could use the rest. We won’t know how deep Bob Shoop and Butch Jones’ trust goes until Gainesville. But seeing who the fourth options are at defensive end, defensive tackle, and safety will be of note, and we’ll get that information this Saturday.

We all know the injury narrative from last season. I’d like to know if guys like Kyle Phillips, Quart’e Sapp, Alexis Johnson, and any number of freshmen can help this team before they have to help this team.

Resting Heart Rate

Months ago you could already see how much healthier Tennessee’s schedule was going to be this year. But I have felt it this week, and you probably have too. We got so used to our hearts beating at 150 bpm every week last fall, we bounced right back to it against Georgia Tech like an old friend who is trying to kill you. But thanks to no Bristol and no Florida-Georgia-A&M-Bama gauntlet this year, we can breathe a little deeper between Saturdays. We’ll get to the Gators. But first, man, we need some Indiana State.