Author Archives: Will Shelton

There’s still plenty of conversation about last week and plenty of conversation about the future, but in the present Tennessee finds itself in a crowded SEC East field. Fans of a certain age are used to losing to Florida and then only having to care about whether the Gators lost twice. But two things have complicated that equation:  one, Nick Saban’s dominance in Tuscaloosa means most will pencil in a second loss for the Vols, requiring an additional Gator loss or a complicated tiebreaker. And two, the SEC East is now much more competitive top to bottom.

Through three weeks, here’s how ESPN’s FPI projects the SEC East in conference win total:

Florida	5.281
Georgia	5.019
Kentucky	4.080
South Carolina	3.977
Tennessee	3.882
Vanderbilt	3.216
Missouri	1.247

What do Tennessee and Vanderbilt have in common near the bottom of the list? They both play Alabama and both get only an 11% chance from FPI, significantly driving down the overall projection. It’s frustrating to see the Vols fifth on this list right now, but the bigger takeaway to me is how crowded the field is from 1-6. Saying 5-3 might win the East is no exaggeration; three weeks in, it seems like the most likely outcome.

If that 11% doesn’t get it done against Alabama tomorrow and Mississippi State stays hot at Georgia (UGA is a 4.5-point favorite), every SEC East team will have a loss other than the winner of Kentucky/Florida. And if the Cats can turn back three decades of futility, the season outlook will seem significantly brighter for Tennessee.

Florida maintains a scheduling advantage due to moving the LSU game last year, and what seemed like a tough SEC West draw of the Tigers and Texas A&M now seems much easier. Meanwhile Georgia’s draw of Mississippi State this week and their annual meeting with Auburn seems more difficult. You never know how these things are going to turn out, but I do know any win for an East team over a West team this year will be a tremendous asset. Not because the West is necessarily so much better than the East this year, but because the East seems so tightly packed.

So yes, watch the Vols Saturday. But the greatest importance to Tennessee’s season this week is what happens Saturday night in Lexington and Athens. We’ll learn a little more about the East race, and might even find ourselves much more in it than we thought just one week after the Florida loss.

Check out our full schedule of what Tennessee fans should watch this weekend.

There are plenty of numbers to support the growing narrative of Tennessee’s offense:  the Vols again fell behind by two possessions, again rallied, and again should have won. Had they pulled it off in Gainesville it would have been the eighth time in the last 34 games Tennessee came back to win from down two possessions. That’s exciting, but the argument here is, “Is it necessary?”

In 2016 and the first three games of 2017, the Vols have been incredibly productive when they had the ball in the fourth quarter. And there are a plethora of statistics to back it up (the data comes from Sports Source Analytics):

Rushing Offense

• In 2016, Tennessee averaged 6.69 yards per carry in the fourth quarter with 11 touchdowns and 29 runs of 10+ yards. All three of those numbers were the best for any quarter of the game last fall. Through three games this year the Vols average 6.22 yards per carry in the fourth quarter, bested only by a 7.35 average in the second quarter.
• John Kelly in the fourth quarter this fall:  11 carries for 104 yards (9.45 ypc) with two touchdowns. He is one of only 16 players in college football to have run for 100+ yards in the fourth quarter this year, and is tied with nine other running backs atop the national leaderboard with four 10+ yard runs in the fourth quarter.
• Last year Josh Dobbs ran the ball 32 times for 324 yards (10.13 ypc) in the fourth quarter, seventh nationally in yards per carry.

These kind of numbers suggest an offense that wears down the defense all day and/or a team playing from behind against softer coverage. But most of Tennessee’s two-possession holes had already been erased by the fourth quarter last season (and Tennessee’s defense wasn’t good enough to make you feel safe about any lead). And the fourth quarter passing numbers are just as stout:

Passing Offense

• Last year Josh Dobbs was 49-of-73 (67.1%) for 739 yards (10.12 ypa) with nine touchdowns and three interceptions in the fourth quarter. His fourth quarter QB rating was fourth nationally.
• This year Quinten Dormady is 11-of-20 (55%) for 248 yards (12.4 ypa) with two touchdowns and an interception in the fourth quarter. His fourth quarter QB rating is currently 19th nationally.
• Dormady’s 248 fourth quarter passing yards are eighth nationally.
• John Kelly and Marquez Callaway in the fourth quarter:  six catches for 187 yards and a touchdown.
• Josh Malone last year in the fourth quarter:  12 catches for 308 yards and four touchdowns. He was one of only nine players to finish the season with 300+ receiving yards in the fourth quarter.

Look at the yards per attempt per quarter over the last two years:

Dobbs 2016	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	YPA
1Q	58	96	60.4%	704	7.33
2Q	65	105	61.9%	785	7.48
3Q	51	80	63.8%	703	8.79
4Q	49	73	67.1%	739	10.12
Dormady 2017	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	YPA
1Q	11	20	55.0%	115	5.75
2Q	17	30	56.7%	143	4.77
3Q	14	23	60.9%	153	6.65
4Q	11	20	55.0%	248	12.40

Dormady doesn’t have the uptick in completion percentage Dobbs enjoyed in the fourth quarter, but the jump in yards per attempt is incredible.

All these numbers show the offense the Vols are running in the fourth quarter is incredibly potent. So what of the offense Tennessee runs in the other three quarters? What’s the difference?

I don’t have all the answers or the reasons why. As we noted yesterday, this has been an issue for Tennessee through three offensive coordinators and three starting quarterbacks under Butch Jones. The simplest explanation may be that playing from behind and in so many tight games has created have-to-have-it moments in the fourth quarter almost every week. And in those situations, Tennessee’s offense has largely excelled.

But the best way to win close games continues to be not to play them. If the team that shows up in the fourth quarter somehow manifests itself earlier and/or throughout the game – in some combination of philosophy, play-calling, and execution – the Vols would not find themselves in position to get beat by a miraculous play.

We saw Butch Jones make an adjustment in philosophy to get to this point:  in 2015 the Vols were racing to early leads, then letting off the gas. That kind of loss hasn’t happened since the Arkansas game that year. But now the Vols are saving too much gas for the home stretch. A better chance of success, for the Vols and their head coach, is to treat every play like it’s the fourth quarter.

Butch Jones’ tenure in Knoxville has featured an unusual number of these kinds of games. Frantic fourth quarters, miracle finishes, games decided on the final drive or a dramatic play in the final minute or, in this case, final second. Sometimes the Vols win, sometimes they don’t. Sometimes we get Josh Dobbs at South Carolina in 2014 or Jauan Jennings last fall in Athens. Sometimes we get Antonio Callaway and Tyrie Cleveland.

But when the dramatic wins and the dramatic losses just balance out, they don’t leave you with progress. It leaves us with heart conditions and, to their credit, a “we’re never out of it” confidence in players so a play like Justin Martin’s end zone punch-out is oddly normal because we just saw Malik Foreman do it last year.

So you can say a lot of things about that final play (and one of them should be a tip of the cap to Feleipe Franks for the throw). But Tennessee’s biggest problem today was that they put themselves in position to be beaten by it.

Coming into today, when the Vols had a 1st-and-10 inside the opponent’s 40 yard line they went on to score a touchdown on every drive except the one ending in Quinten Dormady’s end zone interception against Indiana State last week. Today when the Vols had a scoring opportunity inside the 40, they did this:

• 1st Quarter:  Dormady interception on 3rd-and-10
• 2nd Quarter:  Cimaglia 51-yard field goal made
• 2nd Quarter:  Cimaglia 47-yard field goal missed
• 3rd Quarter:  Dormady end zone interception after 1st-and-Goal at the 1
• 3rd Quarter:  Cimaglia 51-yard field goal missed after third down sack
• 4th Quarter:  Medley 44-yard field goal missed
• 4th Quarter:  Touchdown
• 4th Quarter:  Touchdown
• 4th Quarter:  Medley 27-yard field goal good after 1st-and-Goal at the 9

In seven first-and-goal snaps in the second half, the Vols threw seven passes. Those two sequences went like this:

• 1st-and-Goal at the 1: Should have been picked, unsportsmanlike conduct on Florida
• 1st-and-Goal at the 1: False start on Jack Jones
• 1st-and-Goal at the 5: Incomplete
• 2nd-and-Goal at the 5: Complete to John Kelly for a loss of 1
• 3rd-and-Goal at the 6: Dormady intercepted
• 1st-and-Goal at the 9: Incomplete to John Kelly, should have been a touchdown
• 2nd-and-Goal at the 9: Incomplete
• 3rd-and-Goal at the 9:  Incomplete

Seven plays, and none of them gained a single yard. This is exactly what happened on Tennessee’s only seven red zone snaps against Florida in 2014. John Kelly had 19 carries for 141 yards, but the Vols never ran the ball in a goal-to-go scenario.

This was Larry Scott’s third game calling plays, and I thought he did some good things again today. But what happened in the most crucial part of the field and the game was disastrous. Scott can learn and adjust. The Vols need better field goal kicking. But the overall philosophy must evolve, as Tennessee continues to flirt with the dramatic instead of taking better advantage on every snap.

This has happened with two defensive coordinators, three offensive coordinators, and now three different quarterbacks. It starts with Butch, who to his credit didn’t seem to shy away from that in the postgame. His teams absolutely never quit. But his teams have to be better at making the other team quit.

I don’t know what the best label for it is in the play-calling:  more aggression, more confidence, more competence, etc. But mismanaging crucial situations has cost Tennessee against Florida in 2014, Oklahoma and Florida in 2015, and Florida today. That covers Bajakian, DeBord, and Larry Scott. It is a common, painful theme.

Butch isn’t going anywhere. We all need to blow off a little steam, but everything else is a waste of energy right now. The Vols get UMass next week, then Georgia. If this year’s theme is DAT way, today was a reminder that Butch’s teams have been both incredibly tough and incredibly frustrating in the details. That leaves accountability, which starts with the head coach but must be more than a postgame quote. Tennessee must start coaching and playing to take more advantage on every snap, or they will continue to risk breaking hearts and having theirs broken every Saturday. And they will continue to find themselves on an incredibly entertaining treadmill.

Beneath all the talk, the rivalry, and the unique circumstances surrounding this year’s Tennessee-Florida game, this is the most important fact:  for the fourth year in a row, the Vols have the better team.

The better team doesn’t always win. In 2014 the Vols kept Florida’s offense at bay all day, surrendering only a 30-yard touchdown drive and a 49-yard field goal. But because the Vol offense had a total of seven snaps in the red zone and all seven failed to gain a single yard, the Gators escaped 10-9. In 2015 Tennessee scored to take a 26-14 lead with 10 minutes to play, didn’t go for two, then surrendered conversions on 4th-and-7, 4th-and-8, and 4th-and-14 before poor game management left them with only a 55-yard field goal attempt in one of the five most difficult losses of my lifetime.

Florida got those wins, which is ultimately what matters most. It’s what mattered most for Tennessee last year. But in each of the last three match-ups, the Vols have outperformed the Gators in both total yards and yards per play (with an even turnover margin in each game):

	Plays	Total Yards	Yards Per Play
2014 TEN	68	233	3.43
2014 FLA	75	232	3.09
2015 TEN	70	419	5.99
2015 FLA	71	392	5.52
2016 TEN	79	498	6.30
2016 FLA	70	402	5.74

It hasn’t just been on the field. Tennessee out-recruited Florida from 2014-16, and after a setback in the rankings in February, both the Vols and Gators are currently putting together Top 10 classes for 2018:

(Blue chip ratio represents the percentage of each class made up by four-and-five-stars)

	TEN Rank	TEN Blue Chip	FLA Rank	FLA Blue Chip
2014	7	50.0%	9	37.5%
2015	4	53.3%	21	19.0%
2016	14	43.5%	12	36.0%
2017	17	17.9%	11	47.8%
2018	6	43.5%	7	52.9%

Underneath some perceived friction between Butch Jones and the Tennessee fanbase is the stability Jones has built into the program over the last five years, a stability which may now exceed Florida’s. It’s frustrating to say the Vols really could/should be going for four in a row against the Gators on Saturday and going for their third straight SEC East title this fall. But what’s also true is this may represent the longest stretch of years when Tennessee has had the better team in this rivalry since it became an annual one in 1992. And with a win on Saturday, the Vols will put themselves in an excellent position to extend this run.

The last time Tennessee capitalized on Florida’s instability wasn’t perfect either:  the transition from Steve Spurrier to Ron Zook included an incredibly weird and painful shouldn’t-have-happened loss in 2002, but the Vols still won three of four from 2001-04 en route to a pair of east titles. Butch Jones’ Vols can’t get 2014 and 2015 back, but turned the tide in this rivalry in dramatic fashion in 2016. The close losses may still be painful, but the team’s overall performance the last three years, culminating in last season’s signature win, should give Team 121 real confidence going to Gainesville.

Confidence could be Tennessee’s best weapon in this game. The Gators can ride a wave of “nobody believes in us” on Saturday with backups in key roles, the state still recovering, etc. The best way to deal with emotions like that is in businesslike fashion. And Tennessee’s offense has shown early signs that business could be very good this year.

In Tennessee’s advanced statistical profile at Football Study Hall, the Vol offense ranks 56th nationally in explosiveness. Anytime an offense is more explosive, fans have more fun. But attempting to be explosive can be dangerous for a young quarterback with relatively unproven play-makers, especially against a Florida defense. What takes care of business is efficiency, and there the Vols have excelled.

Football Study Hall and S&P+ utilize success rate to measure efficiency:  does a team gain 50% of the needed yardage on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third and fourth down. By this metric the Vol offense is successful on nearly half of its snaps (49.1%) through two games, 29th nationally. Tennessee has also taken advantage of excellent special teams play, 12th in the nation in average starting field position.

But most impressively, Tennessee’s offense is fifth nationally in finishing drives, measured by points per trip inside the 40 (or, when your team had a 1st-and-10 inside the opponent’s 40 yard line, how often did they score?).

Last week Quinten Dormady threw a terrible interception in the end zone. But every other time the Vols have had 1st-and-10 inside the opponent’s 40 this year, they have scored a touchdown. An average of 6.42 points every time you cross the 40 ranks fifth nationally. That’s impressive no matter who you’ve played.

Larry Scott’s offense is laying down an efficient identity, and that’s exactly what Tennessee needs in Gainesville. The Vols have more talent, more of the right kind of experience through two weeks this fall, and have a chance to be the more stable program coming out of Saturday. With so much uncertainty surrounding this game, I fall back on the simplest answer:  Tennessee has the better team. And this time, they’ve already earned their confidence.

Take care of business.

Go Vols.

The answers will really come next week. But after a week of triple option and a week of FCS, we can put a few questions aside on the road to Gainesville.

Quinten Dormady is Tennessee’s quarterback right now. Speculation that Jarrett Guarantano has a higher ceiling is based in recruiting rankings and…I’m not sure what else at this point. Dormady is 33-of-55 for 415 yards (7.5 yards per attempt) with four touchdowns and one poor decision on an interception today. Since halftime against Georgia Tech, Dormady is 25-of-35 (71.4%) for 363 yards (10.4 ypa).

Guarantano could’ve had more help from his receivers today, but was still 4-of-12 for 41 yards against an FCS opponent. There is a reason they didn’t play him on Monday, and I would not expect to see him in Gainesville. That’s no guarantee Dormady will be lights out against a tougher Gator defense, but he is the clear choice of this coaching staff at the moment. And what we’ve seen on the field backs that up.

Tennessee’s number two running back is up for grabs. Before today Carlin Fils-aime was best known for being part of an unfortunate fumble at South Carolina last year. I was worried, if Ty Chandler had clearly passed him by, that might be the strongest memory he got to make at Tennessee. But CFA took care of that himself today with 41 yards and two touchdowns on three carries.

In Butch Jones’ tenure the Vols have always had a clear one-two at running back (Neal/Lane, Hurd/Lane, Hurd/Kamara). John Kelly is clearly the alpha, but the beta is still up for grabs it would seem.

Dormady loves Brandon Johnson. With seven catches in two games, Johnson has been Tennessee’s most targeted wide receiver. John Kelly has more catches overall as the Vols continue to love to throw to the running back in this offense. And Marquez Callaway is clearly the big play threat. But Johnson might be emerging as the number two option at receiver in what is still a crowded field. Josh Palmer had some big chances today that Dormady overthrew, and Josh Smith was going to start originally but is yet to play. I think the Vols are better off if they get more consistency at the top, but there are some decent options here.

Efficiency competes for championships. The Vols had only one three-and-out today and put an 0-for-11 on Indiana State’s offense on third down. This offense isn’t putting up the numbers we saw in November last year, but that’s an unfair comparison considering the Vols led the nation in yards per play during that stretch last fall. What they have done is get off to a better start in the first two games than what we saw from Team 120 against Appalachian State, Virginia Tech, and Ohio. They avoid negative plays and, since halftime against Georgia Tech, give themselves good opportunities on third down. The defense can’t erase Yellow Jacket memories by beating Indiana State, but they did hold the Sycamores to 3.77 yards per play.

Tennessee now must maintain focus in what will be an emotional week. Where will this Florida game be played? Florida State and Miami have moved their showdown, but the Vols and Gators do not have a common bye week. If Gainesville isn’t an option, could the game be played in Atlanta? Would both teams consider moving it to Knoxville, then playing in Gainesville in both 2018 and 2019?

There will be plenty of rumors, and Florida’s decision makers didn’t endear themselves to the rest of the league over the LSU game last year. But the biggest concern this week is everyone’s safety and the livelihood of those in the Sunshine State; how much that is affected won’t begin to be known until a few days from now. Thoughts and prayers to those in the path of this storm; we’ll figure out football later. And no matter what the outcome, Tennessee is capable of taking care of its own business.

How did Tennessee’s performance against Georgia Tech affect our outlook on the rest of the season? In this week’s win probability (and you can still fill in your own at the bottom of that post), our readers nudge the Vols to the right side of eight wins:

Opponent	Win Probability
Georgia Tech	100.0%
Indiana State	99.1%
at Florida	57.5%
UMass	98.1%
Georgia	51.4%
South Carolina	64.7%
at Alabama	12.4%
at Kentucky	70.0%
Southern Miss	87.9%
at Missouri	71.8%
LSU	33.8%
Vanderbilt	69.1%
WINS	8.16

Most noteworthy here:  our readers now find Florida a more likely victory than Georgia. But the rest of the numbers show this has more to do with what the Gators did than what we saw from the Vols.

Again, it’s difficult to make meaningful observations about the rest of the season from a week one date with the triple option. The good news: it’s Indiana State this Saturday, which means instead of going from a grueling overtime opener to the spectacle of Bristol like last year, the Vols get a much-needed visit from an FCS school with a losing record. The bad news: I’m not sure how much we’re going to learn this week either.

What is most exciting in the week two syllabus?

John Kelly, Marquez Callaway, Ethan Wolf, and…?

When Jauan Jennings went down, Quinten Dormady and Tennessee’s passing game went three places. To no surprise in the Butch Jones offense, the running back played a major role: John Kelly led the team with five receptions. Marquez Callaway was a revelation with 115 yards and two scores. And Ethan Wolf was inches away from what would have been his most productive day in a Tennessee uniform.

Will we see anyone begin to emerge behind those three? Brandon Johnson caught three passes but for only 14 yards underneath against the Yellow Jackets. Josh Palmer started but finished with just one catch. Does Josh Smith play? Can Tyler Byrd get on the same page with the quarterback(s)? Do we see more from some of the backups? The more options the Gators have to prepare for, the better.

How do the Vols rotate on defense?

Plenty of conversation in this short week has emerged around the number of snaps some of Tennessee’s defenders played. The Vols had five of the nation’s Top 50 defenders in total tackles in week one. This is in part because Georgia Tech had 96 offensive snaps in a double overtime game. But it’s also because, despite this, the Vols didn’t really rotate a lot of defenders.

Ten of UT’s starting eleven defenders had at least six tackles; Justin Martin was the odd man out. But behind the starters, no one recorded more than three total tackles. 116 of Tennessee’s 131 total tackles came from those ten players.

The drop-off is even more striking by position:

• Linebacker:  Bituli, Jumper, & McDowell 54 combined tackles; Elliott Berry 1, Quart’e Sapp 1
• Defensive End:  Kongbo & Taylor 19 combined tackles; Kyle Phillips 2
• Safety:  Abernathy & Warrior 22 combined tackles; Todd Kelly Jr. 3

The numbers would have been striking at defensive tackle as well had Kendal Vickers not gone out with an injury. Against 96 plays and 40+ minutes of possession, the Vols rolled with their starters all night long.

The million dollar question here:  was that because the coaches didn’t trust any of the backups against Georgia Tech’s offense, or don’t trust the backups period?

They’ll trust them plenty against Indiana State, and those big names up there could use the rest. We won’t know how deep Bob Shoop and Butch Jones’ trust goes until Gainesville. But seeing who the fourth options are at defensive end, defensive tackle, and safety will be of note, and we’ll get that information this Saturday.

We all know the injury narrative from last season. I’d like to know if guys like Kyle Phillips, Quart’e Sapp, Alexis Johnson, and any number of freshmen can help this team before they have to help this team.

Resting Heart Rate

Months ago you could already see how much healthier Tennessee’s schedule was going to be this year. But I have felt it this week, and you probably have too. We got so used to our hearts beating at 150 bpm every week last fall, we bounced right back to it against Georgia Tech like an old friend who is trying to kill you. But thanks to no Bristol and no Florida-Georgia-A&M-Bama gauntlet this year, we can breathe a little deeper between Saturdays. We’ll get to the Gators. But first, man, we need some Indiana State.

So I tried lying to myself all week, about how this game wouldn’t really matter. If Georgia Tech’s unique offense got the best of Tennessee’s Kirkland-less defense, we couldn’t draw too many conclusions. If Tennessee’s offense looked great against an uncelebrated Yellow Jacket defense, we couldn’t get too excited. No matter what happened, our chances in the SEC East race and the season’s narrative would be largely unaffected.

That was a stupid thing to believe.

The Defensive Numbers in Context

There is a helplessness that can set in when playing an offense like Georgia Tech’s. It reminded me a little of our 1990’s games against Nebraska; even with less talent and lower stakes, when that offense is humming a two-possession lead feels like 20. And you can try to talk yourself into whatever you want, but when the ball is kicked in week one the stakes are always high because they are carrying an entire off-season on their shoulders. In Tennessee’s case, an off-season plus some leftovers from 2016.

So it is comforting the day after to realize that while Georgia Tech did run for 535 yards, the most a Tennessee defense has ever allowed, they also did so on 86 carries. Their 6.22 yards per carry are not something we want to try to reproduce, but it’s also not as bad as what Tennessee’s defense surrendered to Texas A&M (7.06), Alabama (8.52), Kentucky (8.05), or Missouri (6.27) last year. GT’s 6.82 yards per play won’t lead us to a successful season if it shows up in the box score every week, but the Vols allowed more than seven yards per play to A&M, Alabama, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt last year. It was by no means success, but I might wait to see what this defense does against the offenses it’ll see the rest of the year before passing judgment on Bob Shoop’s 2017.

Third Down For Less

It was not, of course, comforting in the moment last night. Listening to cries of “STOP THEM!” was like watching your undersized team get dominated on the boards and all you can do is yell “BOX OUT!” Adding to the discomfort:  Tennessee’s offense got off to a not-great start. The first half went like this:  punt, three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out, an eight-play, 46-yard touchdown drive, and a turnover on downs featuring sub-par clock management. Then a three-and-out to open the second half, at which point Georgia Tech ran the third quarter clock down to 3:14 with a 21-7 lead before missing a 47-yard field goal.

The game got a lot more fun after that. A sure path to no fun:  Tennessee’s opening drives featured 3rd-and-12, 3rd-and-8, 3rd-and-10, and 3rd-and-10. But after that, the Vols saw no worse than 3rd-and-7 the rest of the night with one exception:  the 3rd-and-9 dump-off to John Kelly that went for 10, two plays before Marquez Callaway’s 50-yard touchdown.

Quinten Dormady might turn into something really special; right now the Vols just need him to be something good. Last year the Vols could count on a veteran quarterback to get them out of trouble on third down with both his arms and his legs. This year the Vols have to help Dormady get out of trouble on third down by not getting in trouble on first and second down. It certainly made a tremendous difference in the second half last night.

Let Team 121 Be Team 121

I was in the stands last night and didn’t even know there was a trash can on the sideline until I saw it this morning. If the players like it – context clues suggest they do – perhaps Butch Jones and this bunch embrace a bit of them against the world? People making fun of something else the coach does? Bring it on. You don’t like the trash can? Maybe next week there are two of them. If you’re going to do the trash can, own the trash can.

This team will need to rally around each other, and they got plenty of practice last night. Not only has Tennessee lost its biggest names and faces from last season, it will now be without Darrin Kirkland Jr. and Jauan Jennings all year. It’s helpful to remember that, while Tennessee’s injury luck has been astoundingly bad, the Vols did beat Florida and Georgia and should have beaten Texas A&M without Kirkland, Cam Sutton, and Jalen Reeves-Maybin last fall. It wasn’t the quality of injuries that did the Vols in last fall; the defense’s shutdown performance against the Gators in the second half came on the shoulders of guys like Colton Jumper. No program is going to handle 2016’s quantity of injuries well. But for now, while losing Kirkland and Jennings in no way will make Tennessee better, there is plenty of talent to meet this new opportunity. Daniel Bituli and Marquez Callaway are Exhibits A and B. We’ll need more, but it was a great opening response.

The drama was similar, but the names and faces last night were new…and the Vols still got it done. It’s a long year with the entirety of conference play before us…but this offense should have earned plenty of confidence in the second half, and the defense will have a chance to do the same against traditional offenses. Team 121 will face plenty of adversity. But if they learned how to handle it better than Team 120, they’ll have a chance to have a more successful season. And in that department, last night was a really good start.

Last year Tennessee got its chance to make the first impression of the college football season. It was not a good one:  the Vols were lethargic and lucky to escape against 20-point underdog Appalachian State, and it cost Tennessee nine spots in the polls. The drop was the second largest in the history of the AP poll for a team that actually won its game. While the events of week one would be quickly overwhelmed by the following four Saturdays, it took all of those events – beating Virginia Tech by three scores at Bristol, scoring 38 unanswered points to beat Florida, and escaping via hail mary in Athens – just to get Tennessee back to its original starting position at #9 in the polls.

The lesson:  if you’re going to play on a national stage in week one, you’d better play well.

The national stage is something we shouldn’t take for granted, not yet. Perhaps the Vols were still warming up to it last season; I know the experience was a long time gone for fans as well. Consider this:  from 2009-2014, the Vols played in the 3:30 CBS game just ten times. Four of those times the occasion was the number one team in the nation on the other sideline. In those six years the Vols played Florida four times and Georgia, LSU, and even Alabama just twice each on CBS at 3:30.

Most of our good and/or relevant moments in that span, like Kiffin and Crompton’s shocking takedown of Georgia? SEC Network. 2010 visit from Oregon? ESPN2. Friday night opener in 2012 against NC State? ESPNU. Should-have-could-have beaten Florida in 2014? SEC Network.

Aside from those ten games, I’d throw in College GameDay’s visit for the 2012 Florida game (on ESPN) and the 2014 trip to Oklahoma in the 8:00 PM ABC primetime spot as Tennessee’s only blips on the national radar. A dozen appearances on the national stage in six years. A dozen losses.

But in the last two years, the Vols have played the 3:30 CBS game seven times, and won three of them. Plus GameDay at Bristol in the 8:00 PM ABC slot, and I’d count the season opener with Appalachian State, and Tennessee won both of those. In 2015 and 2016, the Vols have been on the national stage nine times, and won five.

And they’ll be back tonight.

The stage isn’t success by itself, not like it’s been at places like Indiana this week. We’re Tennessee, even if sometimes we feel like we’re still trying to be Tennessee again. But we’re also Tennessee right now:  still looking for a better year than the one Phillip Fulmer gave us a decade ago, still hopeful this one might be it. The Vols were very much in the SEC East race well before Florida looked like that and Jacob Eason got hurt. That part won’t change no matter what happens tonight. But we shouldn’t take the stage for granted.

The stage is exactly why you play this game. Conventional wisdom suggests you avoid having to prepare for Georgia Tech. But the stage on this night in this stadium is worth the risk.

Tennessee will walk into downtown Atlanta’s new spaceship at the end of a long off-season when what Butch Jones said generated more conversation than what he did. The champions of life/five-star heart stuff was poorly timed, but the head coach’s actions were those of a man who was plenty disappointed by what happened last year.

The Vols will face Georgia Tech with a new offensive coordinator, new strength and conditioning coach, and new position coaches at quarterback, wide receiver, offensive line, defensive line, and in the secondary. It is undeniable change; tonight we’ll start learning if it’s change we can believe in.

We’ve spent more than a year now on our podcasts talking about how Butch Jones is a tweaker:  incremental changes over the long haul while hoping you don’t break what didn’t need fixing. This is another way to look at all the off-season changes, as the offensive coordinator and offensive line coach were in-house promotions. But Jones also learned for the first time last year what it’s like to be the head coach of a team with those Top 10 expectations.

As we’ve tracked the progress of this program, it’s noteworthy to track the growth of its head coach as well. Just as Tennessee has grown from an o-fer on the national stage to regular appearances and regular victories, so too might Butch Jones be evolving as a coach. What he says is less important than what he does. And whatever has or hasn’t been said about this team and these players, especially in comparison to their immediate predecessors, won’t matter at all compared to what they have a chance to do, starting tonight.

One year after a bad first impression on the national stage was the opening act for an unsatisfying season, Tennessee gets to make the last impression of college football’s opening weekend. Value the stage. Value the moment. Value the opportunity.

Go Vols.

 

There is so much that is unique to playing Georgia Tech, it may be hard to fully believe a lot of what we see on Monday night. Whether Bob Shoop’s defense plays well or plays poorly, you’ll need a couple weeks of seeing them against more traditional offenses to really gauge their overall performance. The Vols are likely to play combinations at linebacker and in the secondary we may not see again all season.

On offense we’re obviously going to learn about the quarterback(s), and plenty of ink will be rightfully spilled on that. But beyond Dormady and Guarantano, what can we learn against Georgia Tech that will be telling for the rest of the non-triple-option season?

Distribution of Carries

John Kelly is a known factor, though both his ridiculous average per carry and the fact most of his carries came against lesser competition last year make us a little unsure where to set the bar for him. But what will be most educational about Tennessee’s running game is what happens behind him.

Carlin Fils-aime was listed second on the depth chart this week, but true freshman Ty Chandler has led the way in preseason buzz. I’m curious to see not just who gets the second team reps, but how many carries the Vols put in their hands.

Throw out last season’s weirdness with Kamara hurt and the whole Jalen Hurd fiasco. If we look at Butch’s first three years with relatively healthy RB’s, how were the carries distributed between the first and second team running backs?

• 2015:  Jalen Hurd 277 carries, Alvin Kamara 107 (72%/28%)
• 2014:  Jalen Hurd 190 carries, Marlin Lane 86 (69%/31%)
• 2013:  Rajion Neal 215 carries, Marlin Lane 101 (68%/32%)

In Butch’s tenure, only Jalen Hurd in 2015 (21.3) has averaged more than 18 carries per game. Are the Vols going to give John Kelly that kind of load? Even if they do, there should be 7-10 carries to go to the backup(s) if history holds. Will Ty Chandler get all of those, or will CFA get his chance as well?

Does this team have a number two wide receiver?

Not counting Ethan Wolf or John Kelly?

Maybe Josh Smith would have been this answer, and he might still play even after a shoulder injury scare in fall camp. But after Jauan Jennings, Tennessee’s depth chart at wide receiver is five flavors of OR. Smith, Tyler Byrd, and Latrell Williams are battling it out in the slot. Meanwhile true freshman Josh Palmer – a three-star Canadian import who was committed to Syracuse three weeks before signing day – is one of the ORs on the outside opposite Jennings, alongside Brandon Johnson.

Perhaps the Vols found a diamond in the Ontario rough. Perhaps his inclusion is more of an indictment on the other guys on the roster, especially those who have been here longer than a few months. Either way, with a new quarterback and new offensive coordinator, will Palmer or any one of these other guys step up Monday night? Or will OR be a multi-game starter at wide receiver?

Earlier this month we showed you Tennessee’s projected record using win probability with ESPN’s FPI and SB Nation’s S&P+. Add up the percentage chance they give the Vols to win each game, and you’ll get their projection for Tennessee’s regular season win total. Then our staff made their picks using win probability, and we gave you a chance to do the same. We’ve added up all the responses:  here are your projections for the Vols this year:

Opponent	Win Probability
vs Georgia Tech	64.92
Indiana State	98.55
at Florida	46.78
UMass	98.24
Georgia	51.33
South Carolina	68.63
at Alabama	15.31
at Kentucky	68.63
Southern Miss	89.98
at Missouri	73.43
LSU	43.63
Vanderbilt	74.37
WINS	7.94

Our reader projection is in near-full agreement with ESPN’s FPI projection of 7.91, and is an unsurprising consensus expectation in taking the pulse of the fanbase. 8-4 appears to be this year’s bar with 7-5 a hair more likely than 9-3, but neither should shock.

The game-by-game percentages are interesting in a couple of places. Our readers give the Vols a 65% chance on Monday night, but there’s not much difference in how fans view this game and the South Carolina & Kentucky contests later in the year. The odds go just above 50% against Georgia and just below at Florida, and I wonder how much home field advantage has to do with that. And while most don’t give the Vols a significant chance at Alabama, most do with LSU. Eight of Tennessee’s 12 games fall somewhere between 44-74% in our win probability. That’s a lot of potentially close calls, and should make for another exciting season.

You can still use our form to insert your own percentages and find your own projection for Tennessee’s win total.