Author Archives: Will Shelton

 

As the head coach might say, Saturday is a critical day for the Tennessee program. The good news, from the head coach’s perspective:  Butch Jones’ teams have dominated Kentucky…and only Kentucky.

Since 2013 the Vols are 4-0 against the Wildcats. The results have been much more mixed against the rest of the SEC East:  1-4 against Florida, 2-3 against Georgia, 3-2 against South Carolina, and ties waiting to be broken with Missouri and Vanderbilt. And the distance between the Vols against Kentucky and the Vols against the rest of the division is even more stark when you add point differential to the equation.

Here’s the margin of victory chart against the SEC East in Butch’s five seasons:

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	Total
Florida	-14	-1	-1	10	-6	-12
Georgia	-3	-3	7	3	-41	-37
Kentucky	13	34	31	13		91
Missouri	-28	-8	11	26		1
South Carolina	2	3	3	-3	-6	-1
Vanderbilt	-4	7	25	-11		17

Remove Kentucky, and the Vols have played 18 of the other 23 division games within 11 points under Butch Jones. And the margins are razor thin against South Carolina, Missouri, and Georgia before this year. It’s never been that close with the Wildcats, including last year when Tennessee led by 27 with seven minutes to play before two Kentucky touchdowns in garbage time brought the margin closer.

If there’s good news for Kentucky here, it’s that the Vols have done it every time with offense. Last year Tennessee put the first 10+ yard per play performance on an opponent of the post-Fulmer era; the Vols have scored 151 points on the Cats in the last three years. Even the 2013 team, one week after struggling so mightily with Vanderbilt, had its best performance of the season against a power five opponent by putting 6.32 yards per play on Kentucky.

Perhaps Kentucky will be the medicine for Tennessee’s anemic offense one more time tomorrow. The more relevant point here for the Vol football conversation is how Tennessee has continued to play close games regardless of opponent, unless that opponent is Kentucky.

From @SBN_BillC… #Chance pic.twitter.com/SkVGCNAF0o

— Gabriel (@Gabe_TFB) October 13, 2017

The Vols, of course, have already played four such games this year, three of them decided on the final play. In 2016 Tennessee went to the final snap against Appalachian State, Georgia, Texas A&M, and South Carolina. The 2015 Vols, now regarded as the closest thing we’ve seen to a championship-level team under Butch Jones, played six one possession games in a span of eight contests. Plus five more in 2014 and four others in 2013. If the average team plays within one possession 35% of the time, the Vols under Butch Jones are at 43.3%.

It’s interesting now to look back at his tenure at Cincinnati and Central Michigan too, where something that looked like a strength in comparison to Derek Dooley – he knows how to win close games! – now looks more like a red flag by playing in so many of them. In his second year at Central Michigan, Butch Jones and the Chippewas were in nine one possession games.

If the Vols do end up looking for a new coach, and the pendulum continues to swing the way it typically does around here when making a change, Tennessee might look less for someone who wins close games and more for someone aggressive enough to take advantage of every snap, and avoid playing them if at all possible.

The last four years say otherwise, but the first seven weeks of this year and much of Butch’s tenure suggests we’re in for another close game tomorrow. In a critical contest, that would again make the margin of error awfully thin.

We all know the line and the lack of touchdowns; anything Tennessee’s offense does well against Alabama’s top-tier defense should be considered a gift. But what about Tennessee’s defense?

It continues to be in the program’s best interests for Team 121 to figure itself out before it becomes Team 122, no matter who the coach is. Getting the offense back on track deserves the headlines, but the idea also applies to a defense returning a wealth of experience. The early conversation on Bob Shoop’s unit centered on sub-par performances against unique rushing offenses and a catastrophic failure on the final play at Florida. Since then, the volume of the larger conversations on Butch Jones and offensive failure has overwhelmed a quieter truth:  Tennessee’s defense has become fairly reliable.

Thirty-six percent of Florida’s 380 yards came on two plays in the final 11 minutes. The Vols held Georgia to 5.25 yards per play; only Notre Dame’s defense has done better against the Bulldogs this year. Then the Vols held South Carolina to 5.05 yards per play, with 52% of their 323 yards coming on two drives in the third and fourth quarter.

Is the worst thing about Tennessee’s defense…Tennessee’s offense? The Vols gave up those two drives to the Gamecocks around three three-and-outs and a five-and-out. Tennessee’s defense still struggles with depth due to injury, especially at linebacker, and can be worn down late in the game.

But the Vol defense is pretty good at preventing big plays.

Tennessee is currently 29th nationally in 10+ yard plays allowed, and 22nd nationally in 20+ yard plays allowed. Last year the Vols finished 115th and 113th in those two categories. In the advanced metrics at Football Study Hall, the Vol defense is second nationally in preventing explosive plays.

Tennessee’s defense still wears the scars of the Georgia Tech game, as well as those late, long drives against South Carolina. The Vols allow 5.11 yards per carry on the year, 114th nationally. But the Vols are 35th nationally in yards per passing attempt allowed, and would be even higher if not for the hail mary at Florida.

Tennessee’s third down conversions also suffer due to late game fatigue: the Vols allow conversions on 43% of third downs, 101st nationally. This may be the statistic most impacted by the performance of the Vol offense. And as good as the defense is at preventing big plays, it is equally as bad if not worse in the red zone: 20 opponent trips have resulted in 19 scores, 124th nationally.

Will any of this trend positive against Alabama? I’m not sure, but the defense’s performance will be the most interesting thing to watch on Saturday. And that may continue beyond this week:  with a more manageable schedule after this weekend, how far might the Vol defense carry this team the rest of the way, and how much might that impact the outlook on this team in 2018?

The conversation about Butch Jones should always include a tip of the cap for getting Tennessee from Point A to Point B. In recruiting and the win total, the progress he helped the Vols make is undeniable. And I’m sure those were some of the most difficult steps, in particular getting high-caliber recruits to commit to Tennessee before we had even nine wins to back it up, let alone the championships we’re still chasing.

For the fan base, the most precious commodity on the path of progress is memories. You need to make them in the moment with individual wins of significance, then you need that season to go well enough for the moment to last. And in this department, Tennessee has suffered despite the overall progress Jones has made.

The path of progress is measure a little differently from a national perspective. More removed from the emotions and less invested in the memories, it’s about getting to the big stage games and winning enough to stay in the national conversation. Butch Jones has increased Tennessee’s presence on the national stage:  as we wrote before the Georgia Tech game, the Vols were in a CBS 3:30/ABC 8:00/ESPN College GameDay match-up just 12 times from 2009-14, and lost all 12. But this Saturday will mark the 13th time the Vols have played in one of those national stage games since 2015, and right now the Vols are 6-6 in them.

Tennessee has been better at getting to the big stage, yet has still struggled to stay in the conversation. How do we measure this part of UT’s progress?

We’re all looking for championships and big prizes like a New Year’s Six bowl, but that criteria alone is more limited and tends to make things a little too pass/fail. For a program like Tennessee the last 10 years, it also eliminates a step or two between where the Vols are and the endgame of an SEC or national championship. While we’d like to believe after so many years Tennessee is just one step away from college football’s top tier (or even the one below Alabama), I’m not sure those without orange-tinted glasses would agree.

What’s the simplest way to measure a team’s presence in the national conversation? I submit it’s the Top 25. Are you ranked, and for how long? The Top 25 is still what scrolls at the bottom of my television screen and the default setting on my scoreboard app. Top 25 teams play in games that get talked about every week. It’s one thing to get in the poll, something Butch Jones helped Tennessee do again. The most telling poll is the last one, and the Vols slid in there after bowl victories in each of the last two seasons. But for national relevance, I would argue longevity in the poll is more important than where you finish.

And in that department, Tennessee has struggled:  not just in Butch’s first two seasons as the Vols were rebuilding, but in the last three.

Since Tennessee reappeared in the Top 25 in the 2015 preseason AP poll, the Vols have been ranked only 17 times in the last 40 polls:

• 2015:  25th preseason, 23rd vs Oklahoma, 22nd in the final poll
• 2016:  Ranked in the first nine polls, 24th vs Vanderbilt, 22nd in the final poll
• 2017:  25th preseason, 25th vs Indiana State, 23rd at Florida

(Stats from Tennessee’s media guide and poll history at Wikipedia)

In eight of Tennessee’s 17 appearances since 2015, the Vols have been ranked between 22-25.

Again, this is clearly progress: the Vols were ranked 18th in the 2008 preseason poll, lost to UCLA, and disappeared from the Top 25 for four years. They were back for one week – #23 against Florida in 2012 – then gone again for the rest of that season and all of the next two. That’s two appearances in seven years. Butch Jones has 17 in three years.

But three seasons removed from getting back to the poll, an inability to stay there has impeded further progress and kept Tennessee out of the national conversation beyond those first nine weeks of 2016. Even after the Vols were ready for the big stage – and that 2015 team definitely was – I feel like we’ve spent just as much time since then discussing whether Jones was the guy as we have the Vols as a contender.

One step of progress beyond winning the SEC East for whoever is coaching this team next year and beyond:  getting and staying ranked throughout the season. Historically speaking, it’s been something the Vols were capable of even in years they didn’t bring home a title.

When Johnny Majors replaced Bill Battle in 1977, the Vols hadn’t been ranked since October 1975. The Vols would appear four times in the 1979 poll, then not again until the magical 1985 SEC Championship season. That year Tennessee entered the poll at #16 after beating #1 Auburn and finished #4.

The Vols were ranked in the first two polls of 1986, then every week in a 10-2-1 1987 season. The 1988 Vols started 18th before an 0-6 start chased them out. Then Tennessee’s “decade” of dominance began in 1989, where the Vols entered the poll at #17 after a win at #6 UCLA in week two. From there, the Vols were a mainstay in the polls and the national conversation for almost two decades:

• The Vols were ranked in every poll from the third week of 1989 through the end of September 1994, when a 1-3 start after Jerry Colquitt’s knee injury gave way to Peyton Manning as the starter. From late September 1989 through the end of the 1991 season, the Vols were in the Top 15 every week en route to a pair of SEC titles.
• After sliding in the final poll in 1994 at #24, the Vols were ranked every week from 1995 through mid-October 2000 after a 2-3 start. From October 1995 through the end of the 1999 season the Vols were in the Top 10 every week except one, dropping to #12 after the 1996 loss to Memphis.
• Back in the poll by the end of the 2000 season, the Vols spent all of 2001 in the Top 11 and were ranked until early November 2002. Then the Vols were ranked every week in 2003 and 2004, spending all but one of those weeks in the Top 20.
• The Vols were ranked until late October 2005, every week in 2006, and all but one week in 2007.

You can see a decline if you look at the number of weeks spent in the Top 10, etc., but overall the Vols were still right there throughout Fulmer’s tenure. Tennessee hasn’t been in the Top 5 beyond the Florida game since 2001, but was in the Top 10 in November of 2003, 2004, and 2006, where you can convince yourself you’re still in the hunt for the big prize.

Whoever is coaching Tennessee next year will likely inherit a team with work to do to get back in the poll. But the good work Butch Jones and his staff have already done in recruiting make that a much more manageable hill to climb. If we get in the business of a coaching search, we’ll all be looking for the guy who can help us win a national championship again. But there are still a few steps between here and there, and getting the Vols back in the Top 25 on a regular basis will be one of the most important and most telling between a rebuild and the title.

Unless the Vols pull off the miraculous in Tuscaloosa on Saturday, the 2017 season will become about the 2018 season. With the SEC East out of range and the on-paper progress of a 9-3 season likely to fall at Alabama, the meaningful goals for Team 121 will be lost before November. But if there is good news in the midst of such strife, it’s that Team 122 will be mostly comprised of meaningful players from Team 121. You never know what will happen with transfers in an unstable coaching situation, but most of this team will have the opportunity to be back next season.

And that means it’s in Tennessee’s best interests for Team 121 to figure itself out before it becomes Team 122, regardless of who the coach is.

Maybe it’ll be Butch Jones. Maybe it won’t. But from a fan perspective, there is no need to be conflicted about what to root for on Saturdays. Tennessee needs to get better now so it can be better next year when those goals are fresh on the table. And that obviously starts with the offense.

How will the quarterbacks be managed the rest of the season?

The Vols have commitments from four-star Adrian Martinez and three-star Michael Penix, but it seems most likely that either Jarrett Guarantano or Quinten Dormady is the starting quarterback in 2018. That will depend, to some degree, on how one or both of them are managed the rest of this fall.

Will the coaching staff (however it looks) ride Guarantano the rest of the way from here, or does Dormady get another look if/when Guarantano really struggles? All the first half observations were a little sunnier than the second yesterday, but I thought this was a good one:

JG reminds me of freshman year Dobbs. Has no idea what to do after the primary route breaks down, but has the presence to get something.

— Brian Rice (@briancrice) October 14, 2017

The raw numbers for Guarantano were fine – 11-of-18 for 133 yards – with the fact that he threw no interceptions almost negated by taking seven sacks. Some of that is an offensive line which does feature three of this team’s seniors, plus a fourth in tight end Ethan Wolf. They are the offensive position group that will look most different next year. But if the rest of the offense is going to grow for the future, they’ll need better play from Brett Kendrick, Jashon Robertson, Coleman Thomas, and the rest right now.

For the quarterback’s part of the blame for seven sacks, he’ll learn…and that’s the best thing about Guarantano right now. He has the opportunity to get better, Alabama notwithstanding, against defenses that will be more forgiving down the stretch. Right now Kentucky (73rd in yards per play allowed), Vanderbilt (94th), and Missouri (121st) should all give Guarantano and the Vol offense a chance to look better than they have recently.

Growth can be slow for a young quarterback, but still present. Josh Dobbs completed 59.5% of his passes with a -4 TD/INT ratio in 2013. In 2014 he was up to 63.3% and +3. Guarantano doesn’t have to look like 2016 Dobbs just yet. He just needs to get better.

Has the offense really been bad all year?

Remember the first two weeks of the season when we were all just worried about where the defensive linemen were positioned at the snap? There were and are a plethora of bad memories from Florida on both sides of the ball, but statistically speaking? The Vols had at least a decent offense through three weeks.

Consider this:  the Vols averaged 6.25 yards per play against Georgia Tech; the Yellow Jackets are two points away from 5-0 and only Miami (6.5) has had a better day against their defense. And which offense has had the most productive day against the Gator defense? It’s us:  so far Tennessee is the only team to average more than six yards per play (6.14) against Florida.

Through three games, Tennessee was averaging 6.09 yards per play. That’s better than the 2016 offense was doing through the first five games last year (5.47), until it met Texas A&M and business started to pick up.

No one was praising the offense because regardless of its per-play efficiency, the mistakes it made in the red zone at Florida were catastrophic. This too was new:  going into Gainesville one of the things I was most confident in was how successful the Vols had been not just inside the 20, but inside the 40 against Georgia Tech and Indiana State, where every drive but one had ended in a touchdown.

But since Florida, the overall production has been drastically different. The red zone failures are familiar, but the overall struggle is newer. Perhaps what happened against the Gators rattled Dormady or Larry Scott or who knows who else. Perhaps it was simply more of Tennessee’s identity getting put on film and the offense failing to adjust. Or perhaps a mismanagement of the quarterback situation from the beginning of the season has manifested itself the last three weeks. Regardless, it’s hard for me to believe this offense is hopeless with either quarterback, because there were in fact hopeful signs in the first three weeks. The sooner the Vols rediscover that hope, the better 2018 can be. An offense that returns John Kelly, Marquez Callaway, and (hopefully) Jauan Jennings has a lot to be excited about if we can add in more of an answer than a question at quarterback.

What about the defense?

On the other side of the ball, the seniors on this team we thought the Vols would count on most have largely been removed from the equation. Todd Kelly Jr., Cortez McDowell, and Evan Berry have all been lost to injury. Shaq Wiggins has struggled to see the field. The Vols will have holes to fill at corner with Justin Martin and Emmanuel Moseley both leaving, but at this point the only other seniors in the regular defensive rotation are Colton Jumper and Kendal Vickers. This team will have a chance to return a ton of talent and experience in the front seven, plus both safeties and Rashaan Gaulden.

Same as this year, there will be plenty of recruiting stars on the roster in 2018, and same as this year, that will be no guarantee of success. But though it may feel like Tennessee has little left to play for this year and the conversation about Team 121 is getting dwarfed by coaching curiosity, so much of this team is coming back that the second half of this season will have a direct impact on the next one. Getting clarity on the coaching situation is of great importance to Tennessee’s success next year. But so is getting the team that will largely return next year to play better football now so they can achieve their goals next time.

 

 

How do you help your brand new quarterback in a critical game? Get off to a good start. And that’s something Tennessee has to do better regardless of who’s taking snaps.

In 56 games under Butch Jones, Tennessee has scored on the opening drive 19 times (34.5%) with 14 touchdowns and five field goals. Against FBS competition, the Vols have scored 15 times in 51 games (29.4%), with only 10 touchdowns on the opening drive (19.6%). And against power five opponents, the Vols have scored only seven touchdowns on the opening drive, with four of those coming against Kentucky and Vanderbilt. So only against Arkansas and South Carolina in 2015 and Iowa in the Taxslayer Bowl have the Vols scored a touchdown on the opening drive against non-Kentucky/Vanderbilt power five opponents.

This year the Vols have been particularly bad:  three-and-outs against both Indiana State and UMass, just 10 yards in five plays against Georgia Tech, a first-play interception against Georgia and another in Florida territory. The Vols had a 20-yard gain on the opening drive at Florida, but failed to gain more than eight yards on a single play in any of their other opening drives this year.

As you’ll recall, starting hot was not a problem in 2015:  the Vols scored touchdowns on the opening drive against Bowling Green, Western Carolina, Arkansas, South Carolina, North Texas, and Vanderbilt, plus field goals against Oklahoma and Missouri with a missed field goal at Alabama. The 2015 Vols also threw a pick against Georgia and fumbled deep in Kentucky territory. Only twice did the Vols punt on the opening drive that year:  at Florida, and in the Outback Bowl in the season’s only three-and-out on the first series. Other than the Northwestern game, every opening drive had a play that went for at least 13 yards.

The big play potential was there in 2016 as well:  aside from three-and-outs against Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, and Kentucky, the Vols had plays of at least 11 yards on every opening drive. But Tennessee struggled to finish drives last season, getting a field goal against Appalachian State and touchdowns against Ohio, Tennessee Tech, and Vanderbilt but punting it away every other time.

What we’ve seen this year is similar to what the Vols did in 2013 and the first half of 2014 before Josh Dobbs took over full-time. Tennessee scored a touchdown on the opening drive in the first (Austin Peay) and last (Kentucky) game of Butch Jones’ inaugural season, but had six punts and three turnovers in between. A 30-yard gain against Auburn led to a field goal, but seven of the other drives between the first and last game had plays gaining no more than six yards.

In games started by Justin Worley in 2014 (taking out Chattanooga), the Vols went three-and-out four times and also punted after a five-play drive at Ole Miss. Only against Georgia did the Vols produce points (a field goal) on their opening drive before Dobbs took over.

This year the Vols are averaging just three yards per play on the opening drive (21 plays, 63 yards) with no points. In all other years the Vols have averaged between 4.9 (2013) and 6.3 (2015) yards per play on the opening drive. And remember, this year’s team has already played the two worst teams on its schedule, and went three-and-out against both of them.

Tennessee will need to get Jarrett Guarantano in rhythm early, but may also need to address philosophical issues that could be leading to an overall lack of success on the game’s opening drive. There is no more necessary time to make those adjustments than now, to give a new quarterback and the head coach a better chance at success.

Here’s the full data from every game under Butch Jones:

Opp	Plays	Yards	Result	Long Play
Georgia Tech	5	10	Punt	7
Indiana St.	3	5	Punt	8
Florida	9	41	INT	20
UMass	3	7	Punt	8
Georgia	1	0	INT	0
App St	15	70	FG	16
Virginia Tech	3	-2	Punt	4
Ohio	3	55	TD	35
Florida	6	35	Punt	12
Georgia	4	12	Punt	11
Texas A&M	3	8	Punt	6
Alabama	8	15	Punt	16
USC	8	17	Punt	17
TTU	3	46	TD	30
Kentucky	3	5	Punt	7
Missouri	4	12	Punt	10
Vanderbilt	5	56	TD	25
Nebraska	8	42	Punt	29
Bowling Green	10	75	TD	19
Oklahoma	11	50	FG	15
W. Carolina	5	51	TD	29
Florida	4	10	Punt	16
Arkansas	11	89	TD	35
Georgia	3	14	INT	13
Alabama	11	50	FG Miss	20
Kentucky	12	43	Fumble	16
USC	8	67	TD	20
North Texas	5	56	TD	27
Missouri	8	35	FG	13
Vanderbilt	5	56	TD	18
Northwestern	3	4	Punt	6
Utah St.	3	-3	Punt	2
Arkansas St.	3	6	Punt	4
Oklahoma	3	-3	Punt	4
Georgia	9	43	FG	14
Florida	3	7	Punt	5
Chattanooga	8	38	TD	11
Ole Miss	5	26	Punt	13
Alabama	6	21	Punt	12
USC	4	6	Punt	10
Kentucky	5	73	TD	28
Missouri	3	0	Punt	3
Vanderbilt	4	35	Punt	12
Iowa	9	80	TD	25
Austin Peay	4	64	TD	47
WKU	5	12	Punt	5
Oregon	2	1	Fumble	1
Florida	2	-6	Fumble	2
S. Alabama	3	4	Punt	3
Georgia	7	30	Punt	11
USC	3	-8	Punt	0
Alabama	3	6	Punt	6
Missouri	6	22	Punt	10
Auburn	9	53	FG	30
Vanderbilt	3	4	INT	3
Kentucky	2	60	TD	60

 

Tennessee’s new starting quarterback is 12-of-24 for 54 yards in three appearances this season. Those 2.3 yards per attempt obviously must increase for the Vols to have any chance to win, and the play-calling should give him some of the chances Quinten Dormady has had down the field. Guarantano’s struggles in limited action have tempered some of the expectations that usually come when the backup gets his chance. But the context of what other Vol quarterbacks have done in their first mid-season start serves as an additional dose of realism.

Justin Worley also got his first start against South Carolina in 2011, going 10-of-26 for 105 yards in a 14-3 loss. This was a ranked Gamecock squad, but the performance was still one of the ten worst for the Tennessee offense in the last ten years.

Nathan Peterman was a surprise starter against the Gators in 2013. He didn’t make it out of the first half, going 4-of-11 for five yards with three total turnovers. Peterman’s play is a good reminder to never make the first impression the final one:  I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a Tennessee quarterback look worse than Peterman did on this day, and after Josh Dobbs ran away with the job against Alabama the next year he never got another look in Knoxville. But he excelled at Pittsburgh and made the Bills’ roster this fall.

The Vols didn’t find the end zone in Josh Dobbs’ first start, but his numbers were significantly better:  26-of-42 for 240 yards, completing 62% of his passes for 5.7 yards per attempt. Those kind of numbers aren’t good enough to win every Saturday, but for a first start against an SEC defense (and in Dobbs’ case, a top five Missouri team) it’s not bad. A few weeks later (and without Marquez North), Dobbs would give Peterman’s 2013 Florida game a run for its money by going 11-of-19 for 53 yards (2.8 yards per attempt) and a pair of interceptions against Vanderbilt. But he would spend the next 2.5 years becoming the most productive Tennessee quarterback since Peyton Manning.

All new quarterbacks must be handled with patience, and to that point I wouldn’t consider the book closed on Quinten Dormady either. How long will Guarantano’s leash be against the Gamecocks? Worley, Peterman, and Dobbs each threw two interceptions in their first start. If Guarantano follows suit, will Dormady see any action?

There is one critical difference between Guarantano’s first start and the others: the stakes are much, much higher for the head coach. Derek Dooley made a foolish and/or panic move in pulling Worley’s redshirt in the middle of his second season as coach, but Tyler Bray would return from a broken thumb a few weeks later and Dooley was always going to get a third year. Peterman stepped in for Worley in Butch Jones’ third career game at Tennessee, a decision that turned out to be rash. But now Butch Jones is in must-win territory, and pledged to get there on the shoulders of his redshirt freshman quarterback. How much of the offense will they give him? How much of the offense can he handle? Will the nature of the beast this week make a sleepy Tennessee offense come alive sooner?

Don’t set the bar too high for a quarterback making his first start in the middle of the season. But can it be high enough to beat South Carolina?

How bad was last Saturday’s loss to Georgia from an offensive standpoint? Not only was it the first time the Vols had been shut out since 1994, it was one of the worst performances by a Tennessee offense in yards per play in the last ten years. 2008-17 is a good benchmark as it represents Tennessee’s fall from grace, and because that’s as far back as the numbers from Sports Source Analytics go.

Because we love history more than we love feeling good about ourselves, here’s a look at Tennessee’s ten worst offensive performances in the last ten years in yards per play:

10. 2014:  Florida 10 Tennessee 9 (3.43 yards per play)

Seven snaps in the Florida red zone, and all of them failed to gain a single yard. That led to three field goals and a bitter 10-9 defeat on a day most of us came to Neyland Stadium expecting the Florida streak to fall. The Vols had 29 carries for 28 yards.

9. 2008:  Auburn 14 Tennessee 12 (3.35 yards per play)

While Phillip Fulmer would ultimately go down with the ship, the 2008 Clawfense was its biggest leak. It’s one thing to lose, but another to lose like this:  needing only a field goal to win at #15 Auburn, the Vols started their final four drives at the Auburn 38, UT 42, Auburn 46, and UT 46. They failed to gain a single first down. Jonathan Crompton was 8-of-23 for 67 yards.

8. 2015:  Oklahoma 31 Tennessee 24 (2OT) (3.34 yards per play)

Tennessee led 17-3 at halftime and gained 51 yards on the first two plays of the third quarter to move to the Oklahoma 24 yard line. But after missing a field goal, the Vols punted on their next five drives and gained no more than 11 yards on any of them before bowing out in the second overtime on an interception. Josh Dobbs was 13-of-31 for only 125 yards, and the Vols averaged just 2.9 yards per carry in a heartbreaking loss to an eventual playoff team.

7. 2008:  Wyoming 13 Tennessee 7 (3.27 yards per play)

With Phillip Fulmer’s forced resignation announced earlier in the week, the Clawfense was even more lifeless against the Cowboys. Crompton and Nick Stephens combined to go 14-of-36 for 145 yards and two interceptions in a demoralizing loss to a mid-major in Knoxville.

6. 2011:  South Carolina 14 Tennessee 3 (3.15 yards per play)

Derek Dooley pulled Justin Worley’s redshirt the week before, then gave him the start against the #13 Gamecocks. The Vols got a field goal after South Carolina fumbled a punt on the game’s first series, then never scored again. The Gamecocks also famously scored on a 20-play, 98-yard drive in the second half. Worley was 10-of-26 for 105 yards and two interceptions before giving way to Matt Simms again, who went 5-of-12 for 46 yards.

5. 2011:  Alabama 37 Tennessee 6 (3.10 yards per play)

The week before, the Vols and Crimson Tide were actually tied 6-6 at halftime before Nick Saban’s troops ripped off a 21-point third quarter en route to another 31-point win. Matt Simms was 8-of-17 for 58 yards and an interception, which led to Worley’s entrance…where he handed the ball off.

4. 2014:  Ole Miss 34 Tennessee 3 (3.08 yards per play)

Tennessee’s defense was actually pretty good in this one early against #3 Ole Miss, forcing a three-and-out on six of the Rebels’ first seven drives. But the offense could not keep Justin Worley safe and did literally nothing running the ball:  28 carries, zero yards.

3. 2009:  UCLA 19 Tennessee 15 (2.97 yards per play)

I forgot how bad this one was. Lane Kiffin’s first date with FBS competition did not go well:  Crompton was 13-of-26 for only 93 yards and three interceptions, leaving Montario Hardesty and Bryce Brown to run into a brick wall as the Vols had just 115 yards on 44 carires for 2.6 ypc. Two runs into the middle from 3rd-and-goal at the 3 and 4th-and-goal at the 2 kept the Vols out of the end zone in the fourth quarter and gave UCLA a big win.

2. 2017: Georgia 41 Tennessee 0 (2.73 yards per play)

Last Saturday was the second worst offensive performance of the last decade. Quinten Dormady’s 5-of-16 for 64 yards with two picks was the worst yards per attempt number (4.0) for a Tennessee starter since the number one game on this list, and the 1-for-12 conversion rate on third down (8.3%) the worst of the last ten years. Burn this film.

1. 2016: Alabama 49 Tennessee 10 (2.59 yards per play)

The Vols had 32 carries for 32 yards as injuries riddled the offensive line, scored their only touchdown on an 11-yard drive after a fumble, and were basically out of this thing at halftime even though they were only down 21-7, and had only three plays of 10+ yards before going down 28-7 in the third quarter.

Which one of these is the worst memory? Nowhere to go but up from here!

 

Last Saturday my wife and I brought our first child home from the hospital. As Tennessee goes, it was a pretty good day to not be paying attention.

It’s been different this week being so insulated from what everyone is saying about the Vols, both the voices I love and the voices that drive me crazy. Sometimes when we speak of “blocking out the noise”, we’re a red-faced kid with his hands in his ears: he may not hear it, but he is entirely focused on it. Maybe it’s healthier to just remove it from the equation and the decision-making process.

Sports are about the moments more than they are about the noise, the talent, or even the win total. Last year we looked at data from Bill Connelly at SB Nation on the best Tennessee teams of the “Decade” of Dominance. In a 13-year span from 1989-2001, Tennessee won four league titles, a national championship, and had the best winning percentage of any team in the SEC. But Connelly’s S&P+ numbers suggested Heath Shuler’s 1993 team was the best of that bunch. They were an exceptionally talented and dangerous football team. They just weren’t as memorable – in large part because their schedule gave them fewer chances to make those moments – as some of their less talented or even less successful Tennessee contemporaries.

One of my favorite tests for what kind of season Tennessee had is, “Did the Vol Network release a season highlight film?” Those years, since Johnny Majors arrived in 1977: 1985, 1987, 1989-90, 1993, 1995-99, 2001, 2003-04, 2006-07. It’s been so long since they had the opportunity, I’m not even sure what format they would sell it on anymore.

Sports are about moments, and not just the ones available to an established program competing for championships. Among the others, some of the most potent are the “we’re back” moments, which is why they come with so many false alarms. You can create a moment in any season, but ultimately the season itself has to be considered a success for that moment to last.

I think this is what has hurt Tennessee and Butch Jones the most these last five years: missed opportunities to score meaningful “we’re back!” wins, then blown opportunities to cash in even bigger moments in could-have-been championship seasons. Positive, lasting memories are outnumbered by moments that should have been or should have lasted.

There have been significant wins, no doubt, some of them bigger and better than anything around here in more than a decade. But when the seasons those moments came in didn’t end well, they traded some percentage of their pleasure for pain. We missed the chance to celebrate being back to competing for championships because there was no defining victory in that process. Then we lost opportunities to look back with nothing but joy on Saturdays that seemed built to last, but didn’t because the Vols didn’t finish the job.

Think about it this way: how many big Tennessee wins in the last five years don’t give you some kind of a “Yeah, but…” feeling?

Not as they were happening; if you’re a, “Yeah, but…” person in the midst of a big win, you need to get out more. But when we look back at them in the context of the entire season?

Last year Tennessee won a game at a NASCAR track, beat Florida for the first time in 11 years in the biggest comeback over a ranked team in Neyland Stadium history, and beat Georgia on a hail mary in the first five weeks of the season (and almost quadrupled down at Texas A&M). It’s not hyperbole to say I’ve never seen a string of moments like that in so few weeks as a Tennessee fan…which still makes it all the more painful when the Vols didn’t capitalize on them the rest of the year. When I go back and watch the second half against Florida or the last play against Georgia, there’s still a small but significant part of me that associates frustration with those games because the Vols didn’t ultimately cash any of it in.

How many significant, non-yeah-but wins for Tennessee in the last five years? How many are only freely and fondly remembered? For me, that list is:

• Josh Dobbs’ coming out party at South Carolina in 2014. Before frantic finishes became so common under Butch Jones, what the Vols did in the final two minutes and what Dobbs did all night were truly remarkable. When Jones throws around that, “We’re x-and-y in the last z games,” statistic, he always starts with this game, and rightfully so. This one holds up as Dobbs’ coming out party and the beginning of Tennessee’s ascent to national relevance.
• The Taxslayer Bowl start-to-finish blowout of Iowa a few weeks later, Tennessee’s first bowl victory in seven years and still probably the most dominant performance a Butch Jones team has had.
• A 45-6 win over #13 Northwestern in the Outback Bowl at the end of the 2015 season, which allowed the floodgates of championship expectations to open wide. This remains Tennessee’s largest margin of victory over a ranked team since 1990.

And I think that’s about it. The 2015 Georgia game might have been Jones’ most important win, but it had such a stop-the-bleeding component it’s hard for me to associate it more strongly in a different context. The 2013 win over #11 South Carolina was important because Jones did something in two months that Derek Dooley never did in three years, but when those Vols failed to earn bowl eligibility the moment faded. And the blessings and burdens of last year are still fresh on our minds, and inform a significant percentage of the conversation about Butch Jones.

Under their head coach, Tennessee has scored both talent and win totals better than anything we’ve seen in a decade, along with some significant individual wins. But what is missing are moments that get to last. Those moments are sport’s most precious commodity. The noise is simply a reflection of their presence or absence.   

Are there still chances for Butch Jones and these Vols to make those moments? Outside of beating Bama, the schedule has turned in a way that we might have called advantageous had the Vols beaten Florida. But now a head coach and his 3-2 team in desperate need of those moments face a whole bunch of opponents they are always expected to beat, plus an LSU squad threatening to join that list. Tennessee could theoretically finish 9-3 – the program’s best regular season since 2007 – and frustration could still be the first word (although a 9-3 finish could lead to an opportunity for one of those kind of moments in a more prestigious bowl). Perhaps Jarrett Guarantano will spark an opportunity. But beyond Tuscaloosa, how much is left in this regular season that will move the needle? This season’s narrative has already shifted from meaningful football to curiosity about the coach. If it’s going to happen for Butch Jones in Knoxville, he will need to do a lot of winning in the next two months to get another chance to make those moments next fall.

I don’t know what John Currie and The Powers That Be at Tennessee are thinking. But I do know, no matter who is on the sideline, Tennessee needs those moments and needs them to last. 

The best part about drawing conclusions from today is you don’t really have to:  after two years of premature calls on “THE MOST IMPORTANT GAME IN BUTCH JONES’ CAREER!!!!!”, the real thing is coming to Knoxville next Saturday.

This was probably true no matter what Tennessee did today. But a 17-13 win over UMass did nothing to lower the temperature or raise confidence around the program.

Tennessee has a habit of doing something like this against teams like that. I think Appalachian State is a little too good for the comparison, but 28-19 over Ohio, 24-0 over North Texas, 34-19 over Arkansas State and even 31-24 over South Alabama in year one all come to mind. All games against over-matched foes where Tennessee didn’t cover the spread and didn’t seem particularly interested in doing so. I would not recommend this strategy against Southern Miss.

You don’t draw significant conclusions about a coach or a team based on what they do against non-power-five teams, as long as they win those games. But data points like today serve as secondary arguments, doing the Vols and their coach no favors when the primary arguments surround losses as painful as last week.

The next primary data point will roll into Knoxville on Saturday at 3:30, one of the most significant of Butch Jones’ tenure and, at this point, the most important. There will be only one of two conversations by 7:30 or so. We’ll either be talking about Tennessee’s chances in the SEC East, or talking about Butch Jones.

You can come to such a crossroad and make the right turn:  Phillip Fulmer did exactly that in the week leading up to this same Georgia game 10 years ago, and the Vols went on to win the division. If Kentucky and Mississippi State find ways to win tonight, a Tennessee victory over Georgia might even make the Vols one of the front-runners.

But a loss will put Tennessee in an almost impossible place in the SEC East with Alabama still on the schedule, and questions will dominate the bye week. I don’t think next week will be a must-win in the eyes of John Currie, not with half the season left to play. But the conversation will become unavoidable for the foreseeable future.

What happened today? Early on Tennessee fumbled, doinked a field goal, and hurt themselves with an offensive pass interference call. All those little things added up to just a 17-6 lead midway through the third quarter, and when UMass immediately responded with their best drive of the day, it was like Tennessee had already put the car in park. The Vols got only two first downs on their next five drives against the Minutemen, which included an appearance from Jarrett Guarantano that did not provide the spark I assume they were looking for.

Tennessee’s defense held UMass to 281 yards and 4.76 yards per play. But Tennessee’s offense managed only 319 yards and was actually worse per play (4.49).

A word on attendance:  the announced (paying?) crowd was 95,324. Many of them left early around that 17-6 mark. I always believe attendance is one of the most important ways you take the temperature of the fan base; the group that came and/or paid is still significantly healthier than what we’ve seen recently. Derek Dooley’s 2012 Vols drew only 87,821 after beating NC State to open the season, before things went wrong. They would go on to draw less than 90,000 announced four more times that year.

Tennessee’s program is in a much, much healthier place than that right now. But the thousands of fans who left early won’t be ignored either. Whether they assumed, were angry, or were bored today (plus I’m sure burning up in the heat), dissatisfaction is obvious.

But in the SEC, the opportunity for satisfaction is usually only one week away. Georgia, a team Butch Jones and Tennessee have beaten twice in a row for the first time since 2006-07, will represent the win he has most needed since arriving in Knoxville. Even more than Florida last year, when the Vols were suddenly playing without three of their best four defenders. Injuries are a factor for this year’s team, but they are not yet an excuse.

On the eve of that Florida game last year, we wrote something that continues to hold true for this team and its coaches:  Tennessee must believe “the team that makes the fewest mistakes will win” is the first maxim, but not the only one. Timidity begets timidity, and playing not to lose eventually begets losing.

Tennessee has to carry the fight to Georgia. If they do, I also believe confidence begets confidence. This is a talented team. Carry the fight. Because if they don’t, they are likely to find themselves in another painfully close game. That might happen against a good Georgia team anyway. But if you’re Tennessee, you don’t want to just go down swinging at the mercy of two or three plays. You need to come out swinging, and bend those plays to your will in the first quarter instead of the fourth. Be the aggressor. Earn victory.

Big, big week ahead. Carry the fight to Georgia and keep it there for sixty minutes.

Go Vols.