Author Archives: Will Shelton

Which coaches get the most out of their teams?

How do you judge a football team?

Wins and losses are the best way to rank them, but there has to be more involved in the best way to rate them. Games are made up of more than 100 plays; the best rating systems take every one of those snaps into account, not just the final score they produced.

This is one reason we use Bill Connelly’s S&P+ system (along with KenPom for basketball) a lot on this site. We spent the better part of a decade at SB Nation, where his Football Study Hall continues to provide a wealth of statistical knowledge.

A full explanation of S&P+ is available here; essentially it uses five factors to determine a team’s strength:

  • Efficiency (measured by success rate: gaining 50% of the needed yardage on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third/fourth down)
  • Explosiveness (measured by points-per-play of successful plays)
  • Finishing Drives (measured by points per trip inside the 40 yard line)
  • Field Position
  • Turnover Margin

S&P+ should not be used to rank teams because it doesn’t care about outcomes. Right now, Ohio State is number one in its ratings. The system doesn’t dock the Buckeyes for having two losses; its only concern is the data from every snap. And play-for-play, it still views Ohio State as the best team in the country. This same system rated the 1993 Vols as the best of Tennessee’s decade of dominance; they tied Alabama and lost by seven in Gainesville, but had a school-record offense en route to winning nine games by an average of 37 points. The 1998 Vols, among others, were more successful. But the 1993 Vols were better play-for-play.

In coaching searches, we tend to focus on just the wins and losses. This is a good starting point, and even a good ending point when circling back around. But a good search is more thorough than simply one’s record. How well your team played (or didn’t play) en route to that record can separate a great prospect from a good one.

For example:

Butch Jones in S&P+

Five years ago, there wasn’t enough time between Charlie Strong’s no and Butch Jones’ yes for fans to form more than an off-the-cuff opinion of Cincinnati’s coach. But one of the initial positive reactions after his hire was, “He knows how to win close games.” And that was true. Moving on from Derek Dooley, the ability to win not just close but meaningful games was important. Butch Jones beat Virginia Tech 27-24 in 2012 and beat Louisville 25-16 in 2011. And Jones has won his share of close, meaningful games at Tennessee.

But looking a little closer, the number of close games Jones was playing should have stood out. In 2011, six of Cincinnati’s last eight games were decided by nine points or less. At Central Michigan, Jones and the Chippewas were in nine one possession games in 2008. Kudos to Jones for winning enough of them to get Cincinnati to 10-3 in both 2011 and 2012. But, as we found out at Tennessee and Florida found out with Jim McElwain, winning a bunch of close games is not the best indicator of one’s coaching ability. In S&P+, Derek Dooley’s 2012 Vols rated higher than Butch Jones’ 2012 Bearcats.

Using S&P+’s percentile performance for each game (data from Tennessee’s advanced statistical profiles at Football Study Hall and SB Nation’s Tennessee season previews), what were Butch Jones’ best performances at Tennessee?

  • 2014 wins over Utah State, Kentucky, and Iowa all scored in the 99th percentile. The Vols won those three games by a combined 82 points, essentially representing the best Tennessee could play against those opponents relative to expectation.
  • Bowl victories against Northwestern (96%) and Nebraska (94%) also stand out. Last year’s Music City Bowl is a good example of what S&P+ reveals: though the Vols won by only two touchdowns, they dominated statistically. Tennessee averaged 6.9 yards per play while giving up just 4.5 yards per play.
  • In bigger games, Jones’ Vols had an 80+ percentile performance rating in the 2015 win over Georgia, the Battle at Bristol, and the 2016 win over Florida. They also showed up well in the 2014 loss at Georgia (another way S&P+ is useful: showing how well you actually played in a loss).

S&P+ also includes a win expectancy statistic:  using those five factor stats in a given game, how often should you expect to win that game? Georgia in ’15 and Florida in ’16 both featured amazing comebacks, but statistically the Vols were superior in the end. The Vols had a 72% win expectancy against Georgia and 81% against Florida; Tennessee wasn’t lucky to finish those comebacks, they were the better team over the course of those sixty minutes.

But win expectancy cuts the other way against Butch Jones a lot, especially this year. The Vols got the win against Georgia Tech despite a 24% win expectancy in S&P+; given those five factor stats, Georgia Tech wins that game 76% of the time. You need wins like this here and there; good teams tend to also be fortunate. But win expectancy shows the rest of Tennessee’s close games this year weren’t really that close:  it gave the Vols an 18% chance to win at Florida, 23% against South Carolina, and 33% against Kentucky. Even though all three of those games (plus Georgia Tech) came down to the final play, the Vols shouldn’t be considered unlucky to have lost them because statistically, they weren’t that close at all.

Walk it back to 2016, and you’ll find something similar. It’s not surprising to see a win expectancy below 50% against Georgia when you won on a hail mary. But close games with Texas A&M (22%) and South Carolina (19%) really weren’t that close on a play-for-play basis. Outcomes like these repeatedly gave Butch Jones a “one play away” narrative. But when you start taking every play into account, the Vols weren’t nearly as close, and usually ended up with the outcome they deserved.

The lesson:  look beyond wins and losses, and look out if you find a bunch of close wins. Hire a coach who does a better job winning every single snap.

Two of Tennessee’s top targets do a good job of this:

The Long-Term:  Dan Mullen

Here’s the Mississippi State advanced statistical profile. From 2014-2017, Butch Jones went 29-20 at Tennessee. Over the same span, Dan Mullen is 32-16 at Mississippi State. In those four years Jones has an average S&P+ percentile performance rating of 61.9% (which does not include data from the loss at Missouri). Mullen’s S&P+ percentile performance average is 69.2% (which does not include data from the loss to Alabama). Using this metric, the Vols were actually better play-for-play relative to expectation in 2014 (69%) and 2015 (70.3%) than 2016 (65.9%).

With percentile performance, the top team isn’t at 99% every week. No one is that perfect. Right now Alabama is at an 87.2% average for the season (90+% in every game but Florida State (80%), Texas A&M (68%), and LSU (68%); Mississippi State will join that list). But Dan Mullen has done a good job getting more from his teams on every play, and this has been true over a number of years.

At Mississippi State, there have been times the Bulldogs have simply been over-matched. We saw that with Auburn and Georgia this year (win expectancy: 0%). And yes, they weren’t sharp against UMass (58% percentile performance with 65% win expectancy). But in every other win this season, their win expectancy is either 99 or 100%. Last season they struggled in going 6-7, losing a game to South Alabama they should have won and beating Miami (OH) in a bowl game they should have lost.

2015 is a good example of the Mulllen resume: four losses to the four most talented teams on their schedule (LSU, Texas A&M, Alabama, Ole Miss). But at a decided talent disadvantage, the Bulldogs played well relative to expectation, including a 76% percentile performance in a two point loss to LSU. And in eight of their nine wins, they performed at 80+%.

In 2014, the year Mullen took them to number one, the Bulldogs took full advantage in their 9-0 start: other than a 65% percentile performance in a 14 point win over Kentucky, MSU scored between 82-98% every Saturday. They still were above 50% at 61% in the loss to Alabama, then hit 99% in beating Vanderbilt the next week. They fell off in the Egg Bowl and the Orange Bowl, but still, the Bulldogs earned every bit of the success they found in 2014.

All of this to say:  Dan Mullen’s teams have consistently been better play-for-play than what Butch Jones has done at Tennessee or any point in his career. Other than last year’s loss to South Alabama, when they get beat it’s largely because the other team is better. But when they win – and Mullen has won a lot for Starkville – those wins are earned on every snap. The Bulldogs haven’t been lucky. They’ve simply been good relative to expectation. Ask Vegas:  in nine years Mullen has only lost as a favorite seven times, three of those as a favorite of three points or less.

In the current full S&P+ ratings, Mississippi State is 18th nationally and the highest-rated 7-3 team in the nation. They’ve put a better product on the field every snap than Washington State (21st), Virginia Tech (24th), Memphis (30th), West Virginia (33rd), and Michigan State (39th), among others. They have the same record as Kentucky, but the Wildcats are 76th in S&P+. This system knows.

In 2015 the Bulldogs finished 13th in S&P+, the strongest 9-4 team in the nation (the Vols were second at 20th overall). In 2014 they finished ninth overall. His teams tend not to get rewarded in the final AP poll because they play in the SEC West with a handful of losses to teams significantly more talented than them. But even in those games, MSU’s performance has often been noteworthy. And in the games they do win, they have done a much better job taking advantage on every snap than what we’ve seen in Knoxville the last five years.

This is the whole question with Mullen:  will Tennessee make the difference? Can you make up the talent gap in Knoxville to compete not so much with Alabama right now, but Florida and Georgia? Does Mullen believe moving from Starkville to Knoxville significantly raises the ceiling? What does getting the most out of a Tennessee team look like?

If he believes Tennessee will make the difference, I believe he can make the difference for Tennessee.

The Short-Term: Scott Frost

Small sample size, but if you want to see what taking full advantage on every snap looks like, it’s Central Florida this year.

This guy isn’t the mid-major flavor of the month. His team is 8-0 with an average percentile performance of 88% (better than Bama). Their win expectancy has been 93-100% every week. They beat Mike Norvell and Memphis 40-13. Against Chad Morris and SMU the score was only 31-24, but they dominated statistically and still had a 78% percentile performance, and that’s their worst of the season.

It’s only eight games on top of the 13 last year where he moved Central Florida from 0-12 to bowl eligibility. But Scott Frost does not mess around.

They won at Navy 31-21 earlier this year; the Midshipmen are pesky and that was a solid road win. In the postgame, Frost was asked if he enjoyed seeing how his team reacted in a tight game:

“Heck no. I lost a year off my life tonight,” Frost said Saturday after the Knights’ 31-21 victory over Navy. “You need close games because you need to see how your kids experience those situations, but they’re not fun. It was stressful.”

This is a game they won by 10, on the road.

First of all, a coach who says, “Heck no,” will do great at Tennessee. Second of all, this quote is a great example of why Frost gets it, and why any team would be fortunate to get Frost:  every snap matters. You coach to get the most out of all of them. Butch Jones coached to get enough to give his team a chance to win at the end; sometimes they did, sometimes they didn’t. The best coaches don’t leave it up to the last play because they start trying to beat you on the first play and don’t stop until the game is over.

Wins and losses will tell you how to rank them. But if you’re looking for how to rate them – and if you’re looking for effectiveness play-for-play – S&P+ is the more revealing tool. Right now, the only teams doing that better than Scott Frost and Central Florida are Ohio State, Alabama, Washington, and undefeated Wisconsin. (Again, how did you perform relative to expectation? The Badgers haven’t had the opportunity to get a signature win yet, but play-for-play they’ve done exactly what a good team should have done against their schedule to date). S&P+ has Central Florida fifth in their ratings overall.

If you’re looking for a larger sample size, what Dan Mullen has done at Mississippi State also fits the bill. Mullen may also be a longer-term answer for Tennessee, if Frost has dreams of the NFL. Teams looking for new coaches often make pendulum swing hires. The most important way to do that in moving on from Butch Jones is to look at more than just wins, losses, and especially close games. Who’s getting the most out of his team every play, every week, relative to expectation? Dan Mullen or Scott Frost would be a win in that department, and either would be a win for Tennessee.

What can the Vols do better?

 

Basketball season tips off tonight: the Vols host Presbyterian at 7 PM ET (available online via SEC Network+). Tennessee beat this team by 40 last year; Presbyterian enters the season 341 out of 351 in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings. It should serve (along with hosting High Point on Tuesday) as a soft opening before the Battle 4 Atlantis over Thanksgiving.

We shouldn’t learn a lot before then, but a few things stand out as opportunities for significant improvement from last year. If the Vols are going to play their way onto the bubble in hopes of finishing on the dance floor, they’ll have to be better in three critical areas:

1. Shoot the ball better. 

Rocket science, I know. But this is more than the Cuonzo Martin school of, “We didn’t make shots.” The best way for Tennessee to shoot it better is to get better shots.

We covered this at the old site late last season:  the Vols were 13-1 when they had 16+ assists, 3-15 when they had 15 or less. Overall the Vols shot 42.2% from the floor last season (289th nationally), and just 40.7% in conference play (12th in the SEC). When the offense was humming the Vols shared the ball and created good looks, often for Robert Hubbs or Grant Williams. But the Vols struggled to create their own shots beyond Hubbs, leading to tough twos for guys like Lamonte Turner (35.5% from the floor) and Jordan Bowden (37.1%).

Tennessee also struggled to win ugly, a quality any bubble team needs. The Vols were 13-2 when shooting 42% or better from the floor, including strong performances in losses at North Carolina and at Florida.  But under 42%, the Vols were only 3-14. Tennessee did face the nation’s third most difficult schedule in opponent defensive rating by KenPom, but an improved SEC and Rick Barnes’ choice to schedule for the tournament shouldn’t make things tremendously easier this time around.

I don’t know if we can count on the newcomers to make a huge difference here. James Daniel did put in 27.1 points per game for Howard, but was more of a volume scorer averaging 38.8% from the floor on 19.4 shots per game. Better shooting is still more likely to come from better offense than guys naturally evolving into better jump shooters. This means point guard play, starting with Jordan Bone, will be critical for the Vols this season.

2. …but maybe trying a few more threes wouldn’t hurt.

Last season the Vols were 290th nationally in three pointers attempted and 13th in SEC play. The percentages made sense:  32.6% from the arc overall and 31.8% in league play weren’t inspiring anyone to jack it up more.

Some of the offense’s best performances came with the fewest three point attempts of the season. Against Kentucky the Vols were 5-of-10 from the arc, the fewest attempts of the year. Tennessee also beat Georgia Tech, Kansas State, and Vanderbilt while attempting 15 threes or less. UT’s best three point shooter last year was…Admiral Schofield at 38.9%. There still may not be a great three-point shooter on this roster.

However, the game is evolving to the arc more and more:  last year only two teams earned an at-large bid while taking less than 600 three pointers (Seton Hall and Miami). The Vols took 579. Here again, the solution is better offense:  creating better opportunities for a guy like Grant Williams inside can lead to more open looks for a number of players on the perimeter. In an exhibition win at Clemson, the Vols were 9-of-24 (37.5%) from the arc. Twenty-four attempts would have been the sixth-most taken in all of last season. Of particular note:  in two exhibition games, Grant Williams is 2-of-4 from the arc and Admiral Schofield is 3-of-7. Williams averaged one three attempt per game last year, Schofield 1.7. If those two put that in their game regularly and effectively, Tennessee’s entire offensive dynamic will change.

3. Keep the other team off the offensive glass

What comes of playing a bunch of guys under 6’8″: the Vols were 13th in the SEC in defensive rebounding. In the close losses that were most costly last season – the ones that could have made the biggest difference in Tennessee’s bubble presence – this was the number one issue:

  • North Carolina had a 46.3% offensive rebounding percentage and 19 total offensive rebounds, narrowly escaping the Vols in Chapel Hill.
  • Mississippi State grabbed 34% of their misses in a 64-59 victory in Starkville, breaking Tennessee’s four-game winning streak on February 4.
  • One week later Georgia got 29 from J.J. Frazier, but also grabbed 34.6% of their misses in beating the Vols by one point in Knoxville. This loss knocked Tennessee out of the Bracket Matrix field.

You can what-if yourself to death, but if the Vols turn those three losses by a combined eight points into wins, Tennessee is 19-13 with a projected RPI of 52 (via RPI Wizard) going to the SEC Tournament, looking to play their way into the NCAA Tournament. Giving up such a high percentage of offensive rebounds was particularly costly.

Again, only so much you can do with so little height. John Fulkerson’s return will help here, as will the arrival of Derrick Walker to join Grant Williams and Kyle Alexander inside. Tennessee is still going to be smaller than the opposition more often than not – we’ll come back to this point in a major way against Purdue in 12 days – but has to avoid annihilation on the offensive glass to turn some of these close losses into close wins.

The Vols don’t have to excel in any of these areas to be a good team; there are plenty of things Tennessee did well last season (getting to the free throw line, blocking shots while defending without fouling, staying in the black in assist-to-turnover ratio). But these are the greatest areas for improvement for Rick Barnes’ squad, and could make the difference between the NIT and the NCAA Tournament.

The fun starts tonight.

The New Hierarchy in the SEC East

Fifteen years ago, it was easy to talk yourself into the Vols taking over the SEC East. Tennessee won the division in 2001, beating Steve Spurrier on his way to the NFL. A heartbreaking loss in Atlanta only fueled expectations for 2002, with the Vols ranked fifth in the preseason AP poll. It’s hard to believe now, but the SEC East was at the peak of its powers: the Gators were sixth, the Dawgs eighth in the initial poll. Even South Carolina snuck in at #22. Only Nick Saban’s LSU squad was ranked (#14) from the SEC West.

And yet, it’s hard for me to remember more preseason optimism in Knoxville. Riding high on the program’s success from 1995-2001, dominance was the next step and Spurrier was out of the way. Mark Richt and Georgia had upset the Vols the year before, but that loss ultimately didn’t cost Tennessee; it was still easy enough to fall back on UT’s 90’s dominance over the Dawgs. Winning in Gainesville chased away the final monkeys on Phillip Fulmer’s back, and no one believed Ron Zook would wrangle them back in place. When his Gators were blown out by Miami before coming to Knoxville, Tennessee smelled blood. 2002 was my last year in the student section and we were thinking blowout, a dream rarely available to Vol fans in this rivalry.

Instead, one of the strangest nightmares I’ve ever seen in Neyland: an absolute downpour led to five Tennessee fumbles in the last five minutes of the first half, turning a scoreless slugfest into a 24-0 Gator lead. The Vols fell 30-13, then lost 18-13 in Athens with Casey Clausen out due to injury.

While Tennessee stumbled to an 8-5 season, Georgia pounced. The Dawgs lost to Florida as well, but it would be their only blemish in a 13-1 SEC Championship campaign, Georgia’s first since 1982. It was also the first time someone other than Tennessee or Florida won the SEC East, setting the stage for a time of parity:  a three-way tie in 2003, the Vols back on top in 2004, and Georgia back in Atlanta in 2005.

By 2006 Urban Meyer had Florida back to being Florida, and the window got a lot smaller for both Tennessee and Georgia. In the last 10 years the Vols have been to Atlanta once (2007), and Georgia only twice:  merely an appetizer for LSU in 2011, then the nearest of misses against Alabama in 2012. While the Vols walked in the wilderness with three different coaches, Richt’s Georgia programs saw teams outside the Top 10 slide past them to Atlanta in 2010, 2014, and 2015.

Historically, this is Florida’s division: a dozen titles in 25 years, while Tennessee and Georgia had just five each coming into this season. As such, the Vols and Dawgs must take full advantage when the Gators aren’t at full strength. It took the best of Tennessee’s best to win three titles in five years at the end of Spurrier’s tenure. Georgia never won the division when the OBC was in Gainesville, and only went to Atlanta in Urban Meyer’s first year on those same sidelines.

When Florida was in transition 15 years ago, Mark Richt kept Tennessee from taking over. When the Gators started slipping again at the end of Will Muschamp’s tenure, another golden opportunity presented itself. But this time, Tennessee kept Tennessee from taking over. The Vols should be riding a four game winning streak over Florida and two straight SEC East titles. Instead, Tennessee got just one win over the Gators, failed to capitalize on two others over Georgia, and still hasn’t seen the SEC Championship Game since 2007.

The good news:  Florida is still vulnerable. The bad news:  Georgia called dibs.

Kirby Smart’s team is detonating the argument for the SEC being a mass of 8-4 behind Alabama. The Dawgs are 9-0 and yet to be threatened in the SEC. They buried what appears to be a good Mississippi State team 31-3 and, most importantly, beat Tennessee and Florida by a combined 83-7. They will graduate Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, and a good chunk of their starting defense. But they currently boast the nation’s fifth-best recruiting class, including 11 four-or-five-star commits for a blue chip ratio of 61%. Once-solid recruiting classes from the Vols and Gators are up in the air as their coaching situations resolve themselves.

Florida is down, but they tend not to stay there forever. Butch Jones missed his chance to take advantage in 2015 and 2016. Now all signs point to the Vols making a change at the end of 2017, embracing the speed bumps of transition in hopes of greater progress down the road. But Georgia is firmly in the driver’s seat, both in the division and, right now, in all of college football atop the playoff poll. It’s a small sample size for Kirby Smart, but an impeccable one in year two. If/when the Vols make a change, they should have the opportunity to make a better hire than in January 2010 or December 2012. But with Georgia dominating and the Gators looking to level up at the same time, it’s also a dangerous time for Tennessee. The opportunity to get it right is greater, but so too are the risks if the Vols get it wrong.

 

 

 

Meanwhile: Basketball!

 

If your patience is wearing thin with the present and future of Tennessee football, may I suggest turning some of your attention to Rick Barnes’ squad? Because this year’s team will have the opportunity to serve as more than just a distraction.

The last three years featured low expectations quickly rising to heights they could not sustain:

  • 2015: Started 12-5 (4-1), finished 16-16 (7-11)
  • 2016: Started 12-12 (5-6), finished 15-19 (6-12)
  • 2017: Started 14-10 (6-5), finished 16-16 (8-10)

Donnie Tyndall’s squad was just starting to make national noise by winning eight-of-nine between December 6 and January 20, but close wins became close losses became blowouts. Rick Barnes’ first team came from 21 down to beat Kentucky and beat Bruce Pearl by 26 on the first two Tuesdays of February to put the NIT on the horizon, but an injury to Kevin Punter ended the threat. And last year the Vols were in the Bracket Matrix field after a February 8 win over Ole Miss, but an injury to Robert Hubbs was no help in dropping five of the next six. As such, the last three years have threatened to surprise but all ended in the SEC Tournament. This is Tennessee’s longest drought without making the NCAA Tournament or the NIT since 1993-95.

The latter is a good expectation for this year’s team, which lost Hubbs and fan-favorite Lew Evans to graduation and Shembari Phillips and Kwe Parker to transfer. But these Vols will showcase legitimate depth for the first time under Rick Barnes:

  • Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, Lamonte Turner, Jordan Bowden, Jordan Bone, and Kyle Alexander all return.
  • John Fulkerson is back from a gruesome elbow injury which cost him two-thirds of last year, and Jalen Johnson is active following a redshirt season.
  • The Vols added junior college transfer Chris Darrington and graduate transfer James Daniel to the backcourt.
  • Freshmen Derrick Walker and Zach Kent give depth in the post, and 6’5″ Yves Pons came from France to dunk on people.

I wouldn’t expect the Vols to actually go 13-deep, but it will be interesting to see how the rotation shapes up early (and how quickly it can be established). Beyond Grant Williams and probably Admiral Schofield, it’s anyone’s guess where a majority of Tennessee’s productivity will come from. But this is the best group of options the Vols have had since that 2014 tournament run. We’ll begin to see how they look in an exhibition against Carson-Newman at 7:00 PM tonight.

Never mind that whole picked 13th by the SEC media thing. Tennessee starts the year 43rd in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings, sixth in the SEC. While I haven’t seen the Vols show up in any bracketologies yet, if you made one strictly using KenPom Tennessee would be in the field, narrowly avoiding Dayton. And if you enjoyed the Cuonzo Martin era, rejoice:  I would expect this is the kind of season we’re in for.

After three years of having to wait until January to even think about the bubble, this season you can have those conversations right away. Whether the Vols ultimately get on the dance floor or not, the larger point is this:  if you anticipate being that close, every single one of these games will matter. And this year it won’t be something we realized later, but a truth from the opening tip.

That’s next Friday against Presbyterian (341 out of 351 in KenPom), followed by a visit from High Point on November 14. Then opportunity knocks hard in Nassau:  the Vols get #20 Purdue in the Battle 4 Atlantis opener. A loss still helps your RPI and probably gets you a date with Western Kentucky. But a win not only puts Purdue in your bank account, it probably gets you a shot at #6 Villanova (#3 Arizona is on the other side of the bracket).

While we’re waiting for meaningful outcomes in football again, these games will matter right away. And the end result should be better than we’ve seen the last three seasons. Life on the bubble is stressful, but every night matters. I’m looking forward to having that dynamic back.

John Currie, Butch Jones, and When to Operate

Last night John Currie broke his silence with an appearance on Big Orange Hotline on the Vol Network. GoVols247 has a complete transcript of his remarks as he answered questions from Bob Kesling (who I thought did a good job asking fairly direct questions to the AD on a university-run program). Or you can listen to it here:

One particular quote I found interesting:

“Again, you’ve got to step back and take kind of a big-picture view of where you are. And you also have to remember, as my father who passed away a couple of years ago, was a surgeon, right? And the surgeon’s creed is, ‘There’s no problem you can’t make worse by operating.’ So with any particular decision … you’ve got make decisions that you truly believe are best for your program.

“I believe that supporting our staff and supporting our players getting ready for the Southern Miss game is the best thing I can do for our football program right now.”

The vast majority of Tennessee fans would counter by saying the best thing he could do for the football program is make a coaching change. It has become almost impossible to find anyone – fans, local or national media, anyone – who disagrees.

Do we really think John Currie disagrees?

Those who were confused and/or upset by Currie’s silence probably aren’t feeling better by him breaking it this way. I thought the overall theme of his remarks last night was, “Support the players.” But I didn’t interpret anything in this interview to make me believe Currie’s support of Butch Jones this week will extend into next year.

At this point, there’s no need to make the argument for a coaching change. The context clues more than suggest Butch Jones is not going to be Tennessee’s coach in 2018. This, from all sides, is the decision that seems to be best for Tennessee’s football program. It may very well be the decision that is best for Butch Jones.

John Currie’s mission statement is, “Will it help us win?” There is sufficient evidence to believe the status quo will not help us win in the future. Will it help us win this Saturday? Is it what’s best for the program this week? When is the very best time to make things official?

I don’t know the answer to that. None of us do for sure.

We can all agree on the if, while disagreeing on the when. The new early signing period alone makes this uncharted territory for all of us, including John Currie.

Tennessee needs a transplant, and it may be as simple as the man holding the scalpel believes it’s best not to operate until you have a donor lined up. The if is far more important than the when as long as the when is before next season, and neither appear to be in doubt.

This season is already dead in terms of success, but keeping bowl eligibility alive isn’t irrelevant. We’ve long argued it is in Tennessee’s best interests for a team in desperate need of growth, and it’s also in Butch Jones’ best interests even if he’s on another sideline next year:  you want to be the guy who left Tennessee at 6-6, not 4-8. It can be in everyone’s best interests for Butch to still be on the sidelines the next few weeks while it is also in everyone’s best interests for him not to be on the sideline next year.

Far more important than when is who’s next. This time the Vols should have far more attractive options lined up, and not just one that owns property in Jefferson County. That process might have to officially wait until Jones is no longer Tennessee’s coach, but is no doubt unofficially underway.

Currie’s silence, both actual and when speaking, leaves himself open to the perception that Butch can still be saved. But there is little to suggest that perception represents reality. Consider the purpose behind boycotting the game Saturday and/or encouraging others to do the same. If it’s because you want Butch Jones gone, it seems to me that’s already coming. If it’s because you just want Butch Jones gone this week, none of us knows if that’s the very best course of action for Tennessee, for the rest of the season or in the search. If you want closure, I think most of us have lived long enough to realize you’re better off not waiting for the other party to get it.

You are of course entitled to your opinion and your pleasure with your tickets. But I still find no compelling reason to root against this team on Saturday, or to boycott; such a thing tends to end up doing more harm than good.

We all want to win. It’s not going to happen this year. But just because something doesn’t happen this week doesn’t mean something isn’t happening for next year. I don’t know what will help us win this week. I am hopeful we are serving the best interests of what will help us win long-term. That’s John Currie’s job. And that’s our job.

Go Vols.

 

Butch Jones, Tennessee, and Point Differential

 

As the head coach might say, Saturday is a critical day for the Tennessee program. The good news, from the head coach’s perspective:  Butch Jones’ teams have dominated Kentucky…and only Kentucky.

Since 2013 the Vols are 4-0 against the Wildcats. The results have been much more mixed against the rest of the SEC East:  1-4 against Florida, 2-3 against Georgia, 3-2 against South Carolina, and ties waiting to be broken with Missouri and Vanderbilt. And the distance between the Vols against Kentucky and the Vols against the rest of the division is even more stark when you add point differential to the equation.

Here’s the margin of victory chart against the SEC East in Butch’s five seasons:

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total
Florida -14 -1 -1 10 -6 -12
Georgia -3 -3 7 3 -41 -37
Kentucky 13 34 31 13 91
Missouri -28 -8 11 26 1
South Carolina 2 3 3 -3 -6 -1
Vanderbilt -4 7 25 -11 17

Remove Kentucky, and the Vols have played 18 of the other 23 division games within 11 points under Butch Jones. And the margins are razor thin against South Carolina, Missouri, and Georgia before this year. It’s never been that close with the Wildcats, including last year when Tennessee led by 27 with seven minutes to play before two Kentucky touchdowns in garbage time brought the margin closer.

If there’s good news for Kentucky here, it’s that the Vols have done it every time with offense. Last year Tennessee put the first 10+ yard per play performance on an opponent of the post-Fulmer era; the Vols have scored 151 points on the Cats in the last three years. Even the 2013 team, one week after struggling so mightily with Vanderbilt, had its best performance of the season against a power five opponent by putting 6.32 yards per play on Kentucky.

Perhaps Kentucky will be the medicine for Tennessee’s anemic offense one more time tomorrow. The more relevant point here for the Vol football conversation is how Tennessee has continued to play close games regardless of opponent, unless that opponent is Kentucky.

The Vols, of course, have already played four such games this year, three of them decided on the final play. In 2016 Tennessee went to the final snap against Appalachian State, Georgia, Texas A&M, and South Carolina. The 2015 Vols, now regarded as the closest thing we’ve seen to a championship-level team under Butch Jones, played six one possession games in a span of eight contests. Plus five more in 2014 and four others in 2013. If the average team plays within one possession 35% of the time, the Vols under Butch Jones are at 43.3%.

It’s interesting now to look back at his tenure at Cincinnati and Central Michigan too, where something that looked like a strength in comparison to Derek Dooley – he knows how to win close games! – now looks more like a red flag by playing in so many of them. In his second year at Central Michigan, Butch Jones and the Chippewas were in nine one possession games.

If the Vols do end up looking for a new coach, and the pendulum continues to swing the way it typically does around here when making a change, Tennessee might look less for someone who wins close games and more for someone aggressive enough to take advantage of every snap, and avoid playing them if at all possible.

The last four years say otherwise, but the first seven weeks of this year and much of Butch’s tenure suggests we’re in for another close game tomorrow. In a critical contest, that would again make the margin of error awfully thin.

How far can the defense carry Tennessee?

We all know the line and the lack of touchdowns; anything Tennessee’s offense does well against Alabama’s top-tier defense should be considered a gift. But what about Tennessee’s defense?

It continues to be in the program’s best interests for Team 121 to figure itself out before it becomes Team 122, no matter who the coach is. Getting the offense back on track deserves the headlines, but the idea also applies to a defense returning a wealth of experience. The early conversation on Bob Shoop’s unit centered on sub-par performances against unique rushing offenses and a catastrophic failure on the final play at Florida. Since then, the volume of the larger conversations on Butch Jones and offensive failure has overwhelmed a quieter truth:  Tennessee’s defense has become fairly reliable.

Thirty-six percent of Florida’s 380 yards came on two plays in the final 11 minutes. The Vols held Georgia to 5.25 yards per play; only Notre Dame’s defense has done better against the Bulldogs this year. Then the Vols held South Carolina to 5.05 yards per play, with 52% of their 323 yards coming on two drives in the third and fourth quarter.

Is the worst thing about Tennessee’s defense…Tennessee’s offense? The Vols gave up those two drives to the Gamecocks around three three-and-outs and a five-and-out. Tennessee’s defense still struggles with depth due to injury, especially at linebacker, and can be worn down late in the game.

But the Vol defense is pretty good at preventing big plays.

Tennessee is currently 29th nationally in 10+ yard plays allowed, and 22nd nationally in 20+ yard plays allowed. Last year the Vols finished 115th and 113th in those two categories. In the advanced metrics at Football Study Hall, the Vol defense is second nationally in preventing explosive plays.

Tennessee’s defense still wears the scars of the Georgia Tech game, as well as those late, long drives against South Carolina. The Vols allow 5.11 yards per carry on the year, 114th nationally. But the Vols are 35th nationally in yards per passing attempt allowed, and would be even higher if not for the hail mary at Florida.

Tennessee’s third down conversions also suffer due to late game fatigue: the Vols allow conversions on 43% of third downs, 101st nationally. This may be the statistic most impacted by the performance of the Vol offense. And as good as the defense is at preventing big plays, it is equally as bad if not worse in the red zone: 20 opponent trips have resulted in 19 scores, 124th nationally.

Will any of this trend positive against Alabama? I’m not sure, but the defense’s performance will be the most interesting thing to watch on Saturday. And that may continue beyond this week:  with a more manageable schedule after this weekend, how far might the Vol defense carry this team the rest of the way, and how much might that impact the outlook on this team in 2018?

How do we measure progress between rebuilding and championships?

The conversation about Butch Jones should always include a tip of the cap for getting Tennessee from Point A to Point B. In recruiting and the win total, the progress he helped the Vols make is undeniable. And I’m sure those were some of the most difficult steps, in particular getting high-caliber recruits to commit to Tennessee before we had even nine wins to back it up, let alone the championships we’re still chasing.

For the fan base, the most precious commodity on the path of progress is memories. You need to make them in the moment with individual wins of significance, then you need that season to go well enough for the moment to last. And in this department, Tennessee has suffered despite the overall progress Jones has made.

The path of progress is measure a little differently from a national perspective. More removed from the emotions and less invested in the memories, it’s about getting to the big stage games and winning enough to stay in the national conversation. Butch Jones has increased Tennessee’s presence on the national stage:  as we wrote before the Georgia Tech game, the Vols were in a CBS 3:30/ABC 8:00/ESPN College GameDay match-up just 12 times from 2009-14, and lost all 12. But this Saturday will mark the 13th time the Vols have played in one of those national stage games since 2015, and right now the Vols are 6-6 in them.

Tennessee has been better at getting to the big stage, yet has still struggled to stay in the conversation. How do we measure this part of UT’s progress?

We’re all looking for championships and big prizes like a New Year’s Six bowl, but that criteria alone is more limited and tends to make things a little too pass/fail. For a program like Tennessee the last 10 years, it also eliminates a step or two between where the Vols are and the endgame of an SEC or national championship. While we’d like to believe after so many years Tennessee is just one step away from college football’s top tier (or even the one below Alabama), I’m not sure those without orange-tinted glasses would agree.

What’s the simplest way to measure a team’s presence in the national conversation? I submit it’s the Top 25. Are you ranked, and for how long? The Top 25 is still what scrolls at the bottom of my television screen and the default setting on my scoreboard app. Top 25 teams play in games that get talked about every week. It’s one thing to get in the poll, something Butch Jones helped Tennessee do again. The most telling poll is the last one, and the Vols slid in there after bowl victories in each of the last two seasons. But for national relevance, I would argue longevity in the poll is more important than where you finish.

And in that department, Tennessee has struggled:  not just in Butch’s first two seasons as the Vols were rebuilding, but in the last three.

Since Tennessee reappeared in the Top 25 in the 2015 preseason AP poll, the Vols have been ranked only 17 times in the last 40 polls:

  • 2015:  25th preseason, 23rd vs Oklahoma, 22nd in the final poll
  • 2016:  Ranked in the first nine polls, 24th vs Vanderbilt, 22nd in the final poll
  • 2017:  25th preseason, 25th vs Indiana State, 23rd at Florida

(Stats from Tennessee’s media guide and poll history at Wikipedia)

In eight of Tennessee’s 17 appearances since 2015, the Vols have been ranked between 22-25.

Again, this is clearly progress: the Vols were ranked 18th in the 2008 preseason poll, lost to UCLA, and disappeared from the Top 25 for four years. They were back for one week – #23 against Florida in 2012 – then gone again for the rest of that season and all of the next two. That’s two appearances in seven years. Butch Jones has 17 in three years.

But three seasons removed from getting back to the poll, an inability to stay there has impeded further progress and kept Tennessee out of the national conversation beyond those first nine weeks of 2016. Even after the Vols were ready for the big stage – and that 2015 team definitely was – I feel like we’ve spent just as much time since then discussing whether Jones was the guy as we have the Vols as a contender.

One step of progress beyond winning the SEC East for whoever is coaching this team next year and beyond:  getting and staying ranked throughout the season. Historically speaking, it’s been something the Vols were capable of even in years they didn’t bring home a title.

When Johnny Majors replaced Bill Battle in 1977, the Vols hadn’t been ranked since October 1975. The Vols would appear four times in the 1979 poll, then not again until the magical 1985 SEC Championship season. That year Tennessee entered the poll at #16 after beating #1 Auburn and finished #4.

The Vols were ranked in the first two polls of 1986, then every week in a 10-2-1 1987 season. The 1988 Vols started 18th before an 0-6 start chased them out. Then Tennessee’s “decade” of dominance began in 1989, where the Vols entered the poll at #17 after a win at #6 UCLA in week two. From there, the Vols were a mainstay in the polls and the national conversation for almost two decades:

  • The Vols were ranked in every poll from the third week of 1989 through the end of September 1994, when a 1-3 start after Jerry Colquitt’s knee injury gave way to Peyton Manning as the starter. From late September 1989 through the end of the 1991 season, the Vols were in the Top 15 every week en route to a pair of SEC titles.
  • After sliding in the final poll in 1994 at #24, the Vols were ranked every week from 1995 through mid-October 2000 after a 2-3 start. From October 1995 through the end of the 1999 season the Vols were in the Top 10 every week except one, dropping to #12 after the 1996 loss to Memphis.
  • Back in the poll by the end of the 2000 season, the Vols spent all of 2001 in the Top 11 and were ranked until early November 2002. Then the Vols were ranked every week in 2003 and 2004, spending all but one of those weeks in the Top 20.
  • The Vols were ranked until late October 2005, every week in 2006, and all but one week in 2007.

You can see a decline if you look at the number of weeks spent in the Top 10, etc., but overall the Vols were still right there throughout Fulmer’s tenure. Tennessee hasn’t been in the Top 5 beyond the Florida game since 2001, but was in the Top 10 in November of 2003, 2004, and 2006, where you can convince yourself you’re still in the hunt for the big prize.

Whoever is coaching Tennessee next year will likely inherit a team with work to do to get back in the poll. But the good work Butch Jones and his staff have already done in recruiting make that a much more manageable hill to climb. If we get in the business of a coaching search, we’ll all be looking for the guy who can help us win a national championship again. But there are still a few steps between here and there, and getting the Vols back in the Top 25 on a regular basis will be one of the most important and most telling between a rebuild and the title.

Team 121 Is Now About Team 122

Unless the Vols pull off the miraculous in Tuscaloosa on Saturday, the 2017 season will become about the 2018 season. With the SEC East out of range and the on-paper progress of a 9-3 season likely to fall at Alabama, the meaningful goals for Team 121 will be lost before November. But if there is good news in the midst of such strife, it’s that Team 122 will be mostly comprised of meaningful players from Team 121. You never know what will happen with transfers in an unstable coaching situation, but most of this team will have the opportunity to be back next season.

And that means it’s in Tennessee’s best interests for Team 121 to figure itself out before it becomes Team 122, regardless of who the coach is.

Maybe it’ll be Butch Jones. Maybe it won’t. But from a fan perspective, there is no need to be conflicted about what to root for on Saturdays. Tennessee needs to get better now so it can be better next year when those goals are fresh on the table. And that obviously starts with the offense.

How will the quarterbacks be managed the rest of the season?

The Vols have commitments from four-star Adrian Martinez and three-star Michael Penix, but it seems most likely that either Jarrett Guarantano or Quinten Dormady is the starting quarterback in 2018. That will depend, to some degree, on how one or both of them are managed the rest of this fall.

Will the coaching staff (however it looks) ride Guarantano the rest of the way from here, or does Dormady get another look if/when Guarantano really struggles? All the first half observations were a little sunnier than the second yesterday, but I thought this was a good one:

The raw numbers for Guarantano were fine – 11-of-18 for 133 yards – with the fact that he threw no interceptions almost negated by taking seven sacks. Some of that is an offensive line which does feature three of this team’s seniors, plus a fourth in tight end Ethan Wolf. They are the offensive position group that will look most different next year. But if the rest of the offense is going to grow for the future, they’ll need better play from Brett Kendrick, Jashon Robertson, Coleman Thomas, and the rest right now.

For the quarterback’s part of the blame for seven sacks, he’ll learn…and that’s the best thing about Guarantano right now. He has the opportunity to get better, Alabama notwithstanding, against defenses that will be more forgiving down the stretch. Right now Kentucky (73rd in yards per play allowed), Vanderbilt (94th), and Missouri (121st) should all give Guarantano and the Vol offense a chance to look better than they have recently.

Growth can be slow for a young quarterback, but still present. Josh Dobbs completed 59.5% of his passes with a -4 TD/INT ratio in 2013. In 2014 he was up to 63.3% and +3. Guarantano doesn’t have to look like 2016 Dobbs just yet. He just needs to get better.

Has the offense really been bad all year?

Remember the first two weeks of the season when we were all just worried about where the defensive linemen were positioned at the snap? There were and are a plethora of bad memories from Florida on both sides of the ball, but statistically speaking? The Vols had at least a decent offense through three weeks.

Consider this:  the Vols averaged 6.25 yards per play against Georgia Tech; the Yellow Jackets are two points away from 5-0 and only Miami (6.5) has had a better day against their defense. And which offense has had the most productive day against the Gator defense? It’s us:  so far Tennessee is the only team to average more than six yards per play (6.14) against Florida.

Through three games, Tennessee was averaging 6.09 yards per play. That’s better than the 2016 offense was doing through the first five games last year (5.47), until it met Texas A&M and business started to pick up.

No one was praising the offense because regardless of its per-play efficiency, the mistakes it made in the red zone at Florida were catastrophic. This too was new:  going into Gainesville one of the things I was most confident in was how successful the Vols had been not just inside the 20, but inside the 40 against Georgia Tech and Indiana State, where every drive but one had ended in a touchdown.

But since Florida, the overall production has been drastically different. The red zone failures are familiar, but the overall struggle is newer. Perhaps what happened against the Gators rattled Dormady or Larry Scott or who knows who else. Perhaps it was simply more of Tennessee’s identity getting put on film and the offense failing to adjust. Or perhaps a mismanagement of the quarterback situation from the beginning of the season has manifested itself the last three weeks. Regardless, it’s hard for me to believe this offense is hopeless with either quarterback, because there were in fact hopeful signs in the first three weeks. The sooner the Vols rediscover that hope, the better 2018 can be. An offense that returns John Kelly, Marquez Callaway, and (hopefully) Jauan Jennings has a lot to be excited about if we can add in more of an answer than a question at quarterback.

What about the defense?

On the other side of the ball, the seniors on this team we thought the Vols would count on most have largely been removed from the equation. Todd Kelly Jr., Cortez McDowell, and Evan Berry have all been lost to injury. Shaq Wiggins has struggled to see the field. The Vols will have holes to fill at corner with Justin Martin and Emmanuel Moseley both leaving, but at this point the only other seniors in the regular defensive rotation are Colton Jumper and Kendal Vickers. This team will have a chance to return a ton of talent and experience in the front seven, plus both safeties and Rashaan Gaulden.

Same as this year, there will be plenty of recruiting stars on the roster in 2018, and same as this year, that will be no guarantee of success. But though it may feel like Tennessee has little left to play for this year and the conversation about Team 121 is getting dwarfed by coaching curiosity, so much of this team is coming back that the second half of this season will have a direct impact on the next one. Getting clarity on the coaching situation is of great importance to Tennessee’s success next year. But so is getting the team that will largely return next year to play better football now so they can achieve their goals next time.

 

Tennessee Must Improve on the Opening Drive

 

How do you help your brand new quarterback in a critical game? Get off to a good start. And that’s something Tennessee has to do better regardless of who’s taking snaps.

In 56 games under Butch Jones, Tennessee has scored on the opening drive 19 times (34.5%) with 14 touchdowns and five field goals. Against FBS competition, the Vols have scored 15 times in 51 games (29.4%), with only 10 touchdowns on the opening drive (19.6%). And against power five opponents, the Vols have scored only seven touchdowns on the opening drive, with four of those coming against Kentucky and Vanderbilt. So only against Arkansas and South Carolina in 2015 and Iowa in the Taxslayer Bowl have the Vols scored a touchdown on the opening drive against non-Kentucky/Vanderbilt power five opponents.

This year the Vols have been particularly bad:  three-and-outs against both Indiana State and UMass, just 10 yards in five plays against Georgia Tech, a first-play interception against Georgia and another in Florida territory. The Vols had a 20-yard gain on the opening drive at Florida, but failed to gain more than eight yards on a single play in any of their other opening drives this year.

As you’ll recall, starting hot was not a problem in 2015:  the Vols scored touchdowns on the opening drive against Bowling Green, Western Carolina, Arkansas, South Carolina, North Texas, and Vanderbilt, plus field goals against Oklahoma and Missouri with a missed field goal at Alabama. The 2015 Vols also threw a pick against Georgia and fumbled deep in Kentucky territory. Only twice did the Vols punt on the opening drive that year:  at Florida, and in the Outback Bowl in the season’s only three-and-out on the first series. Other than the Northwestern game, every opening drive had a play that went for at least 13 yards.

The big play potential was there in 2016 as well:  aside from three-and-outs against Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, and Kentucky, the Vols had plays of at least 11 yards on every opening drive. But Tennessee struggled to finish drives last season, getting a field goal against Appalachian State and touchdowns against Ohio, Tennessee Tech, and Vanderbilt but punting it away every other time.

What we’ve seen this year is similar to what the Vols did in 2013 and the first half of 2014 before Josh Dobbs took over full-time. Tennessee scored a touchdown on the opening drive in the first (Austin Peay) and last (Kentucky) game of Butch Jones’ inaugural season, but had six punts and three turnovers in between. A 30-yard gain against Auburn led to a field goal, but seven of the other drives between the first and last game had plays gaining no more than six yards.

In games started by Justin Worley in 2014 (taking out Chattanooga), the Vols went three-and-out four times and also punted after a five-play drive at Ole Miss. Only against Georgia did the Vols produce points (a field goal) on their opening drive before Dobbs took over.

This year the Vols are averaging just three yards per play on the opening drive (21 plays, 63 yards) with no points. In all other years the Vols have averaged between 4.9 (2013) and 6.3 (2015) yards per play on the opening drive. And remember, this year’s team has already played the two worst teams on its schedule, and went three-and-out against both of them.

Tennessee will need to get Jarrett Guarantano in rhythm early, but may also need to address philosophical issues that could be leading to an overall lack of success on the game’s opening drive. There is no more necessary time to make those adjustments than now, to give a new quarterback and the head coach a better chance at success.

Here’s the full data from every game under Butch Jones:

Opp Plays Yards Result Long Play
Georgia Tech 5 10 Punt 7
Indiana St. 3 5 Punt 8
Florida 9 41 INT 20
UMass 3 7 Punt 8
Georgia 1 0 INT 0
App St 15 70 FG 16
Virginia Tech 3 -2 Punt 4
Ohio 3 55 TD 35
Florida 6 35 Punt 12
Georgia 4 12 Punt 11
Texas A&M 3 8 Punt 6
Alabama 8 15 Punt 16
USC 8 17 Punt 17
TTU 3 46 TD 30
Kentucky 3 5 Punt 7
Missouri 4 12 Punt 10
Vanderbilt 5 56 TD 25
Nebraska 8 42 Punt 29
Bowling Green 10 75 TD 19
Oklahoma 11 50 FG 15
W. Carolina 5 51 TD 29
Florida 4 10 Punt 16
Arkansas 11 89 TD 35
Georgia 3 14 INT 13
Alabama 11 50 FG Miss 20
Kentucky 12 43 Fumble 16
USC 8 67 TD 20
North Texas 5 56 TD 27
Missouri 8 35 FG 13
Vanderbilt 5 56 TD 18
Northwestern 3 4 Punt 6
Utah St. 3 -3 Punt 2
Arkansas St. 3 6 Punt 4
Oklahoma 3 -3 Punt 4
Georgia 9 43 FG 14
Florida 3 7 Punt 5
Chattanooga 8 38 TD 11
Ole Miss 5 26 Punt 13
Alabama 6 21 Punt 12
USC 4 6 Punt 10
Kentucky 5 73 TD 28
Missouri 3 0 Punt 3
Vanderbilt 4 35 Punt 12
Iowa 9 80 TD 25
Austin Peay 4 64 TD 47
WKU 5 12 Punt 5
Oregon 2 1 Fumble 1
Florida 2 -6 Fumble 2
S. Alabama 3 4 Punt 3
Georgia 7 30 Punt 11
USC 3 -8 Punt 0
Alabama 3 6 Punt 6
Missouri 6 22 Punt 10
Auburn 9 53 FG 30
Vanderbilt 3 4 INT 3
Kentucky 2 60 TD 60